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Biltmore Championship Preview: The SECRET to Handicapping a New PGA TOUR Course — Transcript

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0:04[music]
0:07Welcome to the Second Cup podcast. I'm
0:08Greg Ducharm with you and this is your
0:11Builtmore Championship preview. And this
0:14is a pretty cool episode. We have a
0:15little situation here as the FedEx Cup
0:18fall begins where we're headed to the
0:20cliffs at Walnut Cove for the Builtmore
0:23Championship taking place in Asheville
0:25this week. And the interesting part is
0:28there's no course history. Um, no one
0:31has ever played a golf tournament here
0:33for money at the cliffs at Walnut Cove.
0:35Uh, and that is a it makes it a little
0:38challenging to handicap, but at the same
0:40time, I think it gives us a little bit
0:42of an edge if we go through and utilize
0:45some of the strategies that we're going
0:47to go through today in this episode. So,
0:50uh, we have a lot we're going to get
0:51into today. We'll talk about the FedEx
0:53Cup fall in general. We'll talk about
0:55this golf course and we're also going to
0:57figure out a way uh to handicap this
1:00event properly and then we'll take a
1:02look at some of the players that I'm
1:03really interested in this week. So, um
1:06but before we get into all that, I ask
1:08you please like and subscribe to the
1:10channel. It really helps me out, keeps
1:12this uh Second Cut podcast going, which
1:15has been so fun, and I really appreciate
1:17all the support from all of you who have
1:20uh continued to stick with me here uh
1:22and keep this podcast going. I think
1:24it's a really cool project. It's
1:26something I really enjoy doing and uh
1:28with your help, we can make this
1:30successful and keep making this show
1:32better and better and better as time
1:34goes on. Now, as you'll notice, this
1:36episode is recorded right now. Uh that
1:39will not be the case going forward. I
1:42will try to do every episode I can live.
1:45But early on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
1:47of this week, I'll be in South Carolina
1:50playing in a little event called the
1:52Discover SC Cup, which is something we
1:54do with uh the Sirius XM hosts. Uh I'm
1:58fortunate to be one of those and we're
2:00going to be playing a little bit of golf
2:01down there. um that takes up between the
2:04radio show, the golf, the events
2:06afterwards, it takes up a large portion
2:09of the day and limited my ability to go
2:12live with all of you. But I still wanted
2:14to get a preview episode out there
2:16because I think this is just a
2:17fascinating event. So I I recorded it,
2:20put it out there a little early for all
2:22of you to uh enjoy and hopefully you
2:25find it useful. So without further ado,
2:27let's get right into it. And to do that,
2:30we are going to uh start with the
2:34notebook. And this is uh Greg's note,
2:37which all of a sudden I've I I've lost
2:41my screen share here. So I have to do a
2:44little bit of work here so I can show
2:45you the notebook. And we're going to go
2:49like that. We're going to go right
2:52there. Here we go. There's the notebook.
2:54I had this all set up beforehand and
2:57things went sideways on me. I can't
2:59explain it. I don't know why that
3:01happens. Uh but without further ado,
3:03this is Greg's notebook. We get into
3:05course facts, course stats, winning
3:07trends, course history, best performers,
3:10and comp courses. There are no winning
3:12trends here this week because there's no
3:15course history. Uh there's no course
3:17history, best performers. There are some
3:20comp courses, although this time they're
3:22not statisticalbased.
3:24They're well, you'll see. You'll see how
3:26I arrive at some of the comp courses.
3:29And you know, we'll take those with a
3:31grain of salt this week, but I do think
3:33it's indicative of um who's likely to
3:36play well. Uh let's start here with what
3:39we're doing here in the FedEx Cup fall,
3:41why we're here. The FedEx Cup fall has
3:44changed since the PGA Tour went to this
3:46signature event model. And essentially
3:49now the FedEx Cup fall is like a bigger
3:52Q school, but there are a couple
3:54different categories that are really
3:56important. One of them are the players
3:58that are in the top 50. They are allowed
4:00to play, but there's no need for them to
4:03play. There's nothing for them to
4:05benefit from, except perhaps in a week
4:08like this, they could benefit from
4:10getting ready for the President's Cup.
4:12We saw that a lot last year at
4:13Silverado. a lot of the RDER Cupers
4:15played uh the week before the RDER Cup
4:18to get their games ready. Uh it is an
4:20opportunity to keep your game sharp and
4:22you can make a little money. Uh but as
4:24for FedEx Cup standins, your position
4:26next year, those players in the top 50,
4:29they're set. They don't have to play.
4:31There's no need for them to play. 51 to
4:3470, those guys are playing to get into
4:37the first two signature events of the
4:38year. uh their cards are pretty much
4:41secure for the 2027 season, but they
4:44have an opportunity if you finish 51 to
4:4860, you have an opportunity to get into
4:50those first two signature events next
4:53year, uh which are the what the AT&T
4:56Pebble Beach Pro and the Genesis
4:58Invitational. Uh that's a big deal. It
5:01can really set up your season. You think
5:03about a player like Jacob Bridgeman who
5:05won the Genesis. um you know you go win
5:07an event like that and you're in the
5:09signature events for the rest of the
5:11year you know so it is a big carrot to
5:15dangle um very important for those
5:18players to make sure they're in that A
5:20on next 10 is what it's called and then
5:23there are the guys outside the top 70 uh
5:25and they are looking to secure their PGA
5:28Tour cards obviously the closer you are
5:30to 70 the better but there are 100 PGA
5:33Tour cards that are officially doled
5:35pulled out at the end of this FedEx Cup
5:38fall. And so if you didn't make the
5:40playoffs, if you were outside the top 70
5:42this year, uh you're looking to secure
5:44your PGA Tour card. And that is really
5:48this is the most important aspect in the
5:51FedEx Cup fall. Guys that are going to
5:53keep their cards. This one's important.
5:55U but you know that that'll get more
5:58important as we get closer to the RSM
6:00Classic, which is the last event of the
6:02fall.
6:03by, you know, around that time, last
6:05couple events, we'll have a pretty good
6:07idea of who has a chance at that. But
6:09some of these players that are outside
6:11the top 70 really need to put together a
6:14solid eight weeks in this fall in order
6:17to earn or keep their their PGA Tour
6:20card. Uh so that's what we're playing
6:22for here in the fall. We'll take a look
6:23at some of the notables uh notable
6:25players in each category. In the top 50
6:28this week, you have JT Poston who's, you
6:32know, some somewhat from the area. You
6:34have Justin Thomas who's playing in the
6:35President's Cup. His purpose is clear.
6:38Jacob Bridgeman also playing in the
6:40President's Cup. We understand why he's
6:42here. Same with Nicovaria. He's playing
6:44for the international team in the
6:47President's Cup. And Eric Cole is
6:49playing, but Eric Cole just likes to
6:50play every week. So, I I don't expect to
6:53see him missing too many events in the
6:55FedEx Cup fall, even though he's uh
6:57secured his place in the top 50 on the
6:59PGA Tour. From 51 to 70, you have Cory
7:03Connors, you have Pearson Cudy, Nick
7:05Taylor, and Jackson Kovven. Of course,
7:08Cory Connors and Nick Taylor are playing
7:10on the international side for the
7:11President's Cup at Jackson Kovven is
7:14playing for the US side. So, really glad
7:16to see Jackson Kven playing there. Some
7:19of the notables outside the top 70,
7:21Davis Thompson, you get Johnny Kefir,
7:24Jackson Suber, Doug Gim, who's been
7:26playing great golf, Kevin U, Ben Kohl's,
7:29and Christian Bazidenhout who's playing
7:31on that international side for the
7:34President's Cup as well. So, a lot to
7:36play for for these guys. I I think a
7:38number of these players really have a
7:40legitimate shot of contention this week
7:42at the Builtmore as well. Now, we'll uh
7:45continue to move along here and we'll
7:48get into this golf course. What we know
7:50about it, the information is very
7:52limited. Uh but the name of it we have
7:54that is the cliffs at Walnut Cove and it
7:57is a Jack Nicholas design. It plays at
8:007,249
8:02yards as a par 71, but it sits at 2200
8:07feet of elevation. So, this is already
8:10by PGA Tour standards, um, you know,
8:137250 is a shorter golf course on the PGA
8:16Tour, especially at par 71. Um, but it's
8:20really going to play effectively at
8:22about 7,000 yards, maybe even less. Um,
8:25the general estimate is, uh, you know, a
8:28couple percentage points for every,000
8:31yards when you're dealing with
8:33elevation. And you know, I went with a a
8:36softer calculation and it got us to
8:387,000 yards as an effective distance.
8:42Um, but it could it it won't play more
8:44than 7,000 yards. It could play less.
8:47Um, but you know, the So, the
8:50information we have, like I said, is
8:51very limited on this golf course. Uh, I
8:54I called the facility and spoke to him
8:57about it a little bit. I couldn't get in
8:58touch with the superintendent. He is
9:01obviously very busy. But what I do know
9:04about the golf course is that it's a
9:07mountain style, which you'll hear a lot
9:09about. Uh the the front nine is kind of
9:12in an open much much more open area,
9:14what used to be farmland. And the second
9:17nine is up in the mountains and in the
9:20trees and you're dealing with a mountain
9:23creek and things like that. But it's not
9:26extremely hilly. While it is at
9:28altitude, you see here in these key
9:30characteristics, it is at altitude and
9:33you're going to see beautiful mountain
9:34ranges creating an amphitheater around
9:37this golf course. But I I don't believe
9:40from the sounds of it that it is an
9:42extremely hilly golf course. There will
9:45be elevation change. There will be
9:46uneven lies. Uh but I don't think it's
9:49um you know more dramatic than anything
9:52we've seen on the PGA tour so far. Um,
9:55so the the greens are bent grass, the
9:58rough is Kentucky blueg grass, and it is
10:01a Jack Nicholas design. This is, in my
10:05opinion, the most important aspect to
10:07get into bankrass greens, that's an
10:09important aspect, too. We'll get into
10:11that a little later. Um, but
10:13understanding what this golf course is
10:14all about is to understand what Jack
10:16Nicholas is all about in his designs.
10:20And when you look at Jack Nicholas
10:22designs, they have a couple of common
10:24characteristics. They generally provide
10:27generous fairways. Uh the landing areas
10:30are you you are able to hit the ball in
10:33the fairway off the tea that you're not
10:35going to see 20 yard wide fairways.
10:37Maybe there are areas where it pinches
10:39down and gets a little narrower, but but
10:41Jack gives you room to hit it off the
10:43tea. It may affect your club selection.
10:46You know, he may make a fairway narrow
10:48in a certain area so you don't hit
10:50driver, but he'll give you the option to
10:53hit a ton of fairways. He gives you
10:55plenty of room. Now, he also penalizes
10:58you when you miss. You think about a
11:00course like Mirfield Village. It's
11:02extremely penal when you miss the
11:03fairway. The fairways are wide. That's
11:06kind of what this looks like in its
11:08design characteristic, although it's
11:10significantly shorter. Um, so high
11:13penalty for missing. The other one that
11:14comes to mind is PGA National, uh, where
11:17there's so much water everywhere. Being
11:19in Florida, it's a similar circumstance.
11:22And I can tell you from personal
11:23experience, uh, I I worked at a Jack
11:26Nicholas design golf course uh, at
11:28what's now called Bal's Fairy Point.
11:31That is generous off the tea, but it's
11:34brutal if you are missing fairways. I
11:37played the Bears Club down in Florida,
11:39another Jack Nicholas design. There's
11:41the fairways are plenty wide, but you
11:43don't want to miss them. It's trouble if
11:45you start missing fairways. Uh, so this
11:48is a these are really common
11:50characteristics.
11:52The other aspect is he places an
11:55emphasis on distance control with your
11:57irons more than anything else. A lot of
12:00his greens will be very shallow in
12:03portions, and if they are deep, they
12:06will typically have a a ridge or
12:08something that divides the greens. And
12:10he puts a big emphasis on controlling
12:14your distance with your iron play. It's
12:16what Jack Nicholas did so well uh in his
12:20career. You know, a lot of his greens
12:22will angle from front right to back left
12:25or front left to back right. um you
12:28know, they kind of sit on an angle like
12:30number 12 at Augusta National and that
12:33requires control and the ultimate uh
12:36precision with your irons. That's what
12:38Jack asks for in his golf courses. And
12:41typically he also has some pretty
12:43undulating greens. Even the Bears Club
12:45in Florida, which is, you know, fairly
12:48flat, the greens still have some pretty
12:50significant undulation to them. Pretty
12:53much every golf course I've played that
12:54Jack has designed have also had really
12:56fast greens. Although the reports from
12:59the golf course are they've had a lot of
13:01rain this season. Uh I I do think you're
13:04going to see a golf course on the softer
13:05side. Although hopefully this weather is
13:08uh turning in the right direction and
13:09we'll get a dry a dry golf course for
13:12the tournament. But there has been a lot
13:14of rain in the area recently. Uh so
13:17that's basically what you're looking at
13:19here. it. This is a typical Jack
13:21Nicholas design. It just happens to be a
13:24little shorter. And when we can really
13:26zone in and highlight those key
13:28elements, well, now we have a starting
13:31place. Even though we don't have course
13:32history, we've never seen the golf
13:34course before in a professional event.
13:36We have a direction. We have some things
13:38to key in on. Um, but as we continue to
13:42move forward here, we're going to look
13:44at some of the comp courses that are,
13:46again, it's important to note these are
13:47not statistically comparable courses.
13:50There is no way to do that because we've
13:52never seen this golf course before.
13:54These are the three golf courses that
13:56are Jack Nicholas designed that we see
13:59somewhat in the case of Mirfield
14:01Village, we see it very commonly. Um,
14:03these are the best players in this field
14:06on Mirfield Village since 2020. Aaron
14:10Wise leads the way followed by David
14:12Lipky, Tony Fenow, Justin Thomas, Luke
14:16List, Christian Bazidenhout, Billy
14:19Horchel, Adam Shank, Kevin Stelman, and
14:22Eric von Royan. Now, Billy Horchel has
14:25played really well at Mirfield Village.
14:27I know Justin Thomas has as well. Nearly
14:30won the workday. Billy Horchel won at
14:33Beerfield Village. Um, but you have a
14:35couple other players in here who they
14:37don't jump off the page and you may just
14:40not have seen them in a while. Like
14:43Aaron Wise, I can't remember the last
14:45time I saw him play at Mirfield Village.
14:48Um, but going back to 2020, it gives you
14:51a pretty wide range. Also, with this
14:54field and the fields that you see at
14:56Mirfield Village, making the cut is it
14:59goes a long way. So, this is, I think,
15:02important to some degree. Um, gives you
15:05an idea of guys that have at least
15:06played well, even though they may not
15:08have contended, but you definitely want
15:10to take this with a grain of salt. Same
15:12is true at the next comp course, which
15:14is PGA National, although PGA National
15:17has fields that I would say more
15:19similarly resemble the field we see this
15:22week um at the Builtmore Championship.
15:25And you have Jacob Bridgeman leading the
15:27way. Pontis Niholm, Austin Smotherman,
15:30AJ Uert at number four, Chris Kirk at
15:32number five, Takumi Canaya, Ricky
15:35Castillio,
15:37Kevin U, Adam Hadwin, and Rasmus Hoygard
15:41round out your top 10 at PGA National.
15:44No overlap between those two, which I
15:46found uh surprising. Just the fact that
15:50there's zero, no one shows up on this
15:52list. You know, Justin Thomas has won at
15:55PGA National as well. Um, but I guess he
15:58he could use a couple more starts there
16:00to get on this list. Um, the last one we
16:03look at, we don't even have 10. This is
16:05Valhalla. And all of the players, there
16:08are seven players on this list. They all
16:10finished in the top 20. This would have
16:12been the PGA Championship in 2024. Uh,
16:16Billy Horschel leads the way. We also
16:18saw him at Murfield Village. Justin
16:20Thomas is second. We also saw him at
16:23Murfield Village. Lee Hodes, Taylor
16:25Moore, Rio Hatsune, Austin Ecro, and
16:29Tony Fenow. At number seven, Tony Fenow
16:32earns his first star as well again from
16:36Mirfield Village. Um, so moving along
16:39here now, we're going to get into some
16:40of the stats, and this is important. So,
16:44these are the best players in this field
16:47ranked by strokes gained total over the
16:49last 50 rounds.
16:52Pay attention to the number of rounds as
16:54we go through. We we got a number of
16:56statistical elements to go through here.
16:58I want you to pay attention to the the
17:00number of total rounds because it really
17:03highlights and keys in on the strategy.
17:05So, when I'm looking at in this field
17:07strokes gain total, I want a wide view.
17:10We've had a couple weeks off. Some of
17:12the players in this field have had a
17:13long time off. They didn't get a chance
17:15to play in the playoffs. You know, it it
17:17could be five, six weeks off. it like an
17:20off seasonason for a lot of these guys.
17:22So, I want to take a wide view in
17:24strokes gain total. I went up to 50
17:26rounds. Um, if you were doing modeling,
17:29I would say 50. You could even do more.
17:31If you did a 100 rounds, I wouldn't have
17:32a problem with it. But, I came out with
17:35Blades Brown at number one. There could
17:38be some value there. We'll see where he
17:39stands in the DraftKings pricing. I
17:42don't have pricing yet as I'm doing this
17:44show early. U, but Blades Brown stands
17:46at number one. Ben Kohl's at number two,
17:50Jackson Kovven at number three, Doug
17:53Gim, Zack Blair at number five. We saw
17:56him uh in one of our course history
17:59models as well. So, Zack Blair earns a
18:01star. Justin Thomas earns his second
18:03star. He comes in at number six. Mesner,
18:07Davis Thompson, Cristian Bazidenhout
18:09pops up again at number nine and Jackson
18:12Suber at number 10. Now from here again
18:16this is strokes gain total last 50
18:18rounds. Now we're going to go to strokes
18:20gain ta green but narrow it up a little
18:23bit. Now we're going to go to the last
18:2536 rounds and we'll see what kind of
18:27crossover we get. There we go. Jackson
18:29Kovven uh right there at number one. So
18:32he earns a star. Blades Brown at number
18:35two. He earns a star. We definitely got
18:37to be paying attention to those two
18:39guys. Doug Gimmit number three earns a
18:42star. We got to pay attention to him.
18:44Jackson Suber at number four earns a
18:46star. Ben Kohl's earns a star at number
18:49five. Davis Thompson, first time we've
18:52seen him. Uh um he's at number six.
18:55Justin Thomas at number seven earns his
18:57third star. Ben James, Kevin U at number
19:01nine gets a star and Chris Kirk at
19:04number 10. First time we've seen him. So
19:07these are the TD Green players. Now, if
19:10you missed it, check out right here on
19:13the uh Second Cut podcast YouTube page.
19:16In fact, I'll put this link in the
19:17description as well, but I made a video
19:20about what it takes to win on the PGA
19:22Tour. You know, what makes a winner? And
19:25in that, we highlighted the importance
19:27of strokes gain, ta green, and tea green
19:30is the most predictive uh statistical
19:33category you can find. Maybe strokes
19:36gain total is the exception, although
19:38that's kind of cheating. But this is the
19:40area that lasts over time. Uh, and it's
19:44also very important during the week of a
19:46win. When we start to look at statistics
19:49like putting, they're not so important
19:51over a long period of time, but very
19:54important in short periods of time, like
19:57one week. Um, they're very important in
19:59winning. So, if you didn't get a chance
20:01to watch that video, I recommend you do
20:03it. Um, I'll put that link in the
20:04description. You could also check it out
20:06on the page while you're hitting that
20:08subscribe button. All right. Uh, so I I
20:10appreciate that, but I think you'll find
20:12that to be pretty interesting. Um, now
20:15as we move along here, we're going to go
20:18to approach play. Now, these are the
20:20best players in this field in strokes
20:22gain approach over the last 24 rounds.
20:25So again, we're as we get more specific
20:28in the stat category, we're narrowing
20:30down the number of rounds we're
20:32measuring. We're looking here for guys
20:34who are hot with their approach play.
20:36Approach play is key on a Jack Nicholas
20:39course. It is key on any golf course on
20:42the PGA Tour. One of the most important
20:44aspects
20:46to winning. Putting may be more uh
20:49important during the week of a win, but
20:51it's real close with approach play. And
20:54as the term gets longer, approach play
20:56really grows in its performance. So
20:58these are the 10 best approach players
21:00in this field over the last 24 rounds.
21:02Davis Thompson is first. Davis Chatfield
21:06is second. William Mau, Joel Damon,
21:09Blades Brown earns a second star at
21:12number five. Billy Horchel earns a
21:14second star at number six. You got Paul
21:16Peterson, Ben Kohl's doubling up on
21:19stars, Lucas Glover, and Zack Blair
21:23doubling up on stars here at number 10.
21:26So, these guys, Zack Blair, Ben Kohl's,
21:28they definitely catch my attention. Uh,
21:31Blades Brown catching my attention here
21:33as well. Um, that Billy Horell is
21:37interesting, too. Now, we're going to
21:39pivot to putting. Now, again, I urge you
21:42to go back and watch that video on what
21:44makes a winner. There's a lot of putting
21:46conversation in this and what we find
21:48with putting is it is very important in
21:51the week of a win. Um not so important
21:55entering the week. So this is now our
21:57narrowest gap. We go best strokes game
22:00putt in this field over the last 12
22:03rounds. That may only be three
22:05tournaments for some players, but it's
22:07very recent in the strokes game putting.
22:10There's one other thing we're going to
22:11look at with putting as well to try to
22:13find out who's likely to have a an
22:15uptick in their putting performance this
22:17week. You got Zack Bshu at number one,
22:20Hayden Springer, Nico Etravaria.
22:23Interesting for the President's Cup.
22:24Rasmus Hygard, Kevin Kizner, Denny
22:27McCarthy, Zack Blair again. So, Zack
22:30Blair is on the T Green list and uh or I
22:35guess the approach list and the putting
22:38list. really good sign. It's a third
22:40star for Zack Blair. My guess is we'll
22:43see when prices come out. My guess is
22:45there's going to be a lot of value with
22:47Zack Blair this week. Max Graaserman
22:50number eight, Mackenzie Hughes at number
22:51nine, Jacob Bridgeman. Anytime he's on a
22:54putting list, it's not surprising. Uh so
22:57here he is the 10th best putter in this
22:59field over the last 12 rounds. Uh and
23:03that gets a star for Jacob Bridgeman.
23:05Now, we're going to look at the last
23:08putting metric, which is uh best strokes
23:11gain putting on bent grass. Now,
23:14originally I just did 2026.
23:17Some of the players only played one
23:19tournament on bent grass this year. Uh
23:22some of them played much more. So, I
23:23decided to just go even wider view. Go
23:262026 and 2025. Who are the bent grass
23:32putters? You have AJ Uert at number one.
23:35Um, he actually doesn't have a star. He
23:38should have a star. I I again, the stars
23:42get they're very helpful and I try my
23:44best to avoid mistakes. I make them
23:48periodically as you can see here. So, AJ
23:50Uert should have a star. He doesn't
23:52here. Uh, Kevin Kisner at number two, he
23:54does have a star. Pearson Cudy at number
23:57three. Jonathan Bird at number four. for
24:00Vince Whley. Number five, Chris Ventura
24:03number six, Pontis Nyholm number seven,
24:06Bryce Garnett number eight, Howong Lee
24:09number nine, Danny McCarthy at number
24:1110. Um, and Denny McCarthy should have a
24:14star as well if I'm not mistaken. Was he
24:17on our pre? Yeah, there he is on So,
24:20Denny McCarthy's on both list, so he
24:22should have a star as well. Um, my
24:25apologies, Denny. Uh now we'll look at
24:28who well you know before we do this
24:30before we look at most stars let's look
24:32at the best strokes game putting again
24:34on bankrass in 2026 in 2025 when you're
24:38doing your analysis if you're building a
24:40a fantasy lineup or something like that.
24:44This is an important thing to take a
24:46look at. You may be in between a couple
24:48of players. You may be looking for a a a
24:51value guy. And I'm sure we're going to
24:54see in this 6K range when pricing comes
24:56out a weak bottom half of this field,
24:59but you're going to need to fill it some
25:01way somehow. This is the kind of thing
25:04that you look at. Oh, Pearson Cudy
25:07should have a star as well. My
25:08apologies. I made far too many mistakes
25:11in this. Um, but this is the kind of
25:15thing where, okay, maybe Pearson Cudi is
25:17not a great putter, but he's the third
25:20best putter on Bengrass.
25:22over the last two seasons and we're
25:23headed to bankrass, that's a sign of a
25:26potential uptick. Um, so that's kind of
25:29how I look for guys who are about to
25:31have spike putting weeks and spike
25:34putting weeks are how you identify
25:36winners on the PGA Tour and it's also
25:38how you build great fantasy lineups. Uh,
25:41Chris Ventura popping up here on a bent
25:43grass putting list. He's a really nice
25:45ball striker. That could be a really
25:47nice advantage for you when you're
25:50putting together your lineup. Bryce
25:51Garnett, not a long hitter. He's not
25:54going to show up in any off the tea
25:55category, but he's a guy to look at and
25:57investigate a little further because it
25:59could be very helpful. Um, so while they
26:02don't have any stars, this is an
26:03important list to look at when you're
26:05finding value and looking for value
26:07plays. So, to summarize this, we have
26:10two three star players, uh, Zack Blair,
26:13Justin Thomas, um, and they have more
26:16stars than anybody else. Blades Brown,
26:19Billy Horchel, and Ben Kohl's all earned
26:22two stars. Jackson Kovven, Kevin Kizner,
26:25Jacob Bridgeman, uh Davis Thompson,
26:29Kevin U, Jackson Suber, Doug Gim,
26:32Christian Besidenhout. I guess there's a
26:35second Suber in the field. Jackson Suber
26:37again. Uh just kidding. Jackson Suber
26:40got one star. I typed his name in twice.
26:42Uh and then we had the couple of other
26:45omissions to add to the one star list.
26:48We have uh Denny McCarthy and Pearson
26:51Cudy need to be added as uh one star
26:55recruits.
26:57My guess is a lot of these guys are
26:59going to be pretty highly priced. I
27:01would expect to see Justin Thomas as the
27:03most expensive player. I think you'll
27:05see Jackson Kyven right up there with
27:07him. Davis Thompson will probably be in
27:09the 9K range. So there's a number of
27:12these players don't offer a ton of
27:14value. My guess would be Billy Horchel,
27:18Blades Brown, Zack Blair. You're going
27:20to find a good bit of value on. I
27:22wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty
27:24good value on Kevin Uh as well. And
27:28we'll see about Doug Gim and Christian
27:30Bazidenhow. I would think they're
27:32probably somewhere in the upper 8K range
27:35if I had to guess. Um but time will tell
27:38and we'll see. So again, as you can see
27:42here, um there are a number of players
27:45that I find to be really interesting and
27:48I I just want to point out as we are
27:52going to the next thing we're going to
27:53do is take a look at some players
27:54individually. Uh and I'm just setting
27:58that up as I'm kind of vamping here. So
28:03we're going to do this and this and
28:06this. There we go. Now, now we're ready
28:08to share our screen. Um, but in the
28:11meantime, it it's important to note and
28:13what I'd encourage you to do is follow
28:16the second cut on some of our other
28:18social platforms. You can check it out
28:20on Tik Tok, Instagram, uh, Twitter,
28:24Facebook, any of those categories, find
28:27the second cut, and uh, I'll be sharing
28:29some more official picks as the week
28:32goes on, as more information comes out.
28:34I'll be keeping you up to date there.
28:36I'll also post some short videos.
28:38Hopefully, if I can, I'm going to post
28:40some short videos here on YouTube.
28:43Although, it's more likely that you'll
28:45see some graphics from me this week
28:47considering my travel schedule. Um, but
28:50these are the players right now that I
28:52really want to highlight. Again, no real
28:54indication of value beyond a guess. But
28:57Justin Thomas, the the big concern with
29:00him, and I think the reason a lot of
29:02people weren't excited about him being
29:04on the President's Cup team is what's
29:06happened with his iron play. And and you
29:08could see that it just has not been very
29:12encouraging. Um you seeing him lose
29:14strokes approaching the green in four
29:16out of his last six events. It's not
29:18great. But his wedge play is phenomenal.
29:21So wedge play is absolutely phenomenal.
29:23Hopefully in a week like this, you're
29:25hitting a lot of greens in regulation.
29:27Um, but the the couple big things that I
29:31look at with Justin Thomas, we go down
29:33here to some of the statistical
29:35categories are where is JT in the wedge
29:40play range? You see 75 to 100, he's 41st
29:43on tour. Uh 50 to 125, he's 64th. While
29:48this has not been a great season for
29:50Justin Thomas with the irons, I think on
29:53this golf course given the altitude,
29:56you're going to see a lot more wedges in
29:58hand. And I think Justin Thomas's iron
30:01play is going to elevate and that's a
30:03really good sign for me. So, I am
30:05expecting a good week. He's one of the
30:08better players in this field for sure.
30:10Uh you're going to play with it. I'm I'm
30:12expecting a uptick in performance
30:15heading into a President's Cup. That's
30:17going to mean a lot for Justin Thomas.
30:19This is going to be a strong week for
30:21him. So, he he is a very strong
30:23candidate in my book, despite the stats
30:26looking kind of weak. If it weren't if
30:29we weren't heading into a President's
30:31Cup right now, I'd be off Justin Thomas.
30:33But I I think you're going to see his
30:35game elevate because it means so much to
30:37him. Um and that's just what Justin
30:40Thomas does.
30:42Now, uh, the next player that we have to
30:44talk about is Jackson Kovven. Now, this
30:47was a pick that I didn't really think
30:49Branson Nedker should have made. I I
30:51didn't think Jackson Kovven was the most
30:53deserving player, but if you wanted to
30:56argue that Jackson Kovven is one of the
30:5812 best players, uh, 12 best American
31:02players,
31:04while his sample size is small, I'd have
31:07a hard time arguing otherwise. Look at
31:10some of these numbers. Compare this to
31:12Justin Thomas. They're His approach play
31:14numbers are way better. Remember, he
31:17turned professional right here at the
31:18John Deere Classic, and he didn't have a
31:20great out in, but in the five events
31:22he's played since, he's gained strokes
31:24off the tea and approaching the green in
31:26all of them. And he is just a TA Green
31:30monster. Picked up four strokes at the
31:32Isco Championship. TEA Green 10 and a
31:35half at the 3M Open when he won, seven
31:39at the Rocket Classic, five and a half
31:42at the Windham Championship, and another
31:44two at the FedEx St. Jude championship.
31:48So that this area for him is really
31:50strong. And the other thing is that's
31:54amazing to me when you ask people about
31:57Jackson Kovven when he was coming out of
31:59college. Uh the thought was he is the
32:02best putter that they've ever seen. Um
32:06phen like a absolutely phenomenal
32:08putter. And looking at him statistically
32:10that's the weakest category right now.
32:13So I I view that as a good thing and I
32:16think there's a there's definitely a
32:18chance you see a great putting week from
32:19him. the 3M open, you're dealing with
32:21bent grass greens. He gained six strokes
32:23putting um and so he's very capable of
32:26that. He didn't putt well at the rocket.
32:29You know, those were bent poa if I a
32:32bent and poa mix if I'm not mistaken.
32:34And then he was a little weak in the
32:37Windom and the FedEx St. Jude on the uh
32:39on the Bermuda surfaces. So, Jackson
32:42Kovven definitely looking at having a
32:45huge week uh and is probably the number
32:49one player in this field. I I I don't
32:52know if he'll be more expensive than
32:53Justin Thomas. If he's not, he'll be uh
32:56right up there with him. They they will
32:58be one two if you ask me. Um moving on
33:02to Blades Brown. Blades Brown kind of
33:05surprised me with some of these uh
33:07projections. He he rated out really well
33:10and I mean then you look at the numbers
33:13and it kind of reminded me to look at
33:15the numbers cuz he didn't get into the
33:17FedEx Cup playoffs. Uh but he did finish
33:20uh ninth at the Advent Health
33:22Championship. Um and and playing this
33:25week at the Simmons Bank Open. I I don't
33:27know where he'll finish in that. Um by
33:30the time you're watching this, he may
33:32have who knows maybe he won the thing.
33:35But so good play on the Cornferry tour
33:37as well. Monster numbers with his
33:39approach play going all the way back to
33:41the John Deere Classic. He's gain
33:43strokes approaching the green in all of
33:45them. Uh and on in some cases more than
33:49three shots uh more than two shots and
33:52five of those events. It's been
33:54phenomenal for him te to green. Um his
33:57driver has been very effective as well.
34:00uh losing half a shot at the Windham
34:03championship and threequarters of a shot
34:06at the blue championship on the corn
34:07ferry tour. Everything else has been
34:10mainly significant gains off the tea. So
34:13that's a real asset for him and he's a
34:16phenomenal putter as well for the most
34:18part. He's putting up a shot or two per
34:21week putting on the greens. Um yeah,
34:24Blades Brown is an allaround stud. He is
34:27a complete player and maybe it's
34:30something about the cornfairy tour, but
34:32he he there'll be some value on him in
34:34the field this week if I had to guess.
34:36His finishes aren't so elite that you
34:39have to price him high. It's not like
34:42Jackson Kovven who won. He's not there
34:45yet, but he's on the same level as a
34:47player. Uh and and so when you have a
34:49guy like this stand out in the strokes
34:52gain total and the strokes gain ta green
34:54categories in this field that's a very
34:57eyeopening to me and it makes Blades
34:59Brown one of my favorite plays of the
35:01week. He could almost be the guy if you
35:05wanted to fade Jackson Kovven and build
35:07around Blades Brown I wouldn't have a
35:09problem with that. Um and maybe a
35:11significantly different price and I
35:14don't think their skill sets are all
35:15that different quite frankly. Um, you'll
35:18very like you're very likely to find
35:21some value here with Ben Kohl's and and
35:24Ben Kohl's rated out very highly for us
35:26in what we just went through. Um, so he
35:29looks great and you could see the iron
35:31play is just sensational. It wasn't
35:34great at the Windham championship, but
35:36um, playing a couple cornfairy tour
35:38events, it has been uh, which it always
35:41is and has been on the PGA Tour
35:44basically all season. So with both
35:46Blades Brown and Ben Kohl's, they're
35:48playing both Cornferry and PGA Tour. And
35:51it doesn't really matter where they're
35:53playing. They put up great numbers
35:55because they're such good, reliable Ta
35:58Green players. And uh specifically for
36:01Ben Kohl's, putting has been the
36:03weakness, but there was a stretch on the
36:05PGA Tour where he gained strokes putting
36:09in five events in a row, six events in a
36:12row, excuse me, and has not putted well
36:14over the last three on the Cornferry
36:16tour. Uh but he has on the PGA Tour. I
36:20think there's a really high likelihood
36:22that he um that he steps up and and
36:24putts great. John Deere Classic, another
36:27Bent Grass Golf Course, gained three
36:29strokes putting Rocket Classic, Benton
36:32Poe Mixed, gained three and a half
36:35at the 3M Open where you have Bent, he
36:38gained.3 strokes. So those are really
36:41good indicators, but really the floor
36:43for Ben Kohl's is built with his off the
36:46green uh off the tea approaching the
36:48green, you know, his T green metrics
36:50which are elite. So, uh, my inclination
36:53is there's going to be a lot of value on
36:55Ben Kohl's, and I think this is a great
36:57spot for him. Uh, we got two more
37:00players that we're going to get into
37:01today. One of them is Davis Thompson,
37:04and basically with Davis Thompson, I I
37:06think he's going to be a little higher
37:08priced. Last time we saw him, he
37:09finished tied 14th at the Windham
37:12Championship, tied eighth at the Rocket
37:14Classic, tied seventh at the 3M Open. I
37:17think you're going to see a little
37:18higher price point on Davis Thompson.
37:21Um, but it could be worth it. I mean,
37:23looking at at this approach play over
37:25his last five events, I just can't
37:27ignore it. He's gained over two shots in
37:29all five of them. And last time we saw
37:31him at the Windom Championship, he
37:33gained 12.4 strokes approaching the
37:36green. The big concern with him is the
37:39putter, but again, 3M open bent grass
37:42greens, he gained 2 strokes. At the
37:44Rocket Classic, Bent and Po mix, he
37:46gained five and a half. um that's more
37:49similar to the green types that we're
37:51going to see here this week. If you look
37:54at his historical data, he's not a very
37:56good putter anywhere. Um but it it Bent
38:00is his second best surface. Um Poana
38:03being his worst. So, we'll see. I I
38:06don't think Davis Thompson needs to have
38:07a great putting week to be valuable. Uh
38:11this is the kind of situation where um
38:14where you really want to be paying
38:15attention to
38:17his price point. If Davis Thompson is in
38:20the top five highest priced players, I'm
38:23probably looking elsewhere. Uh but if
38:25he's in the lower $8,000 range, if I
38:28could pair him with a someone like a
38:30Blades Brown, I would definitely do that
38:32and consider it. But if he's an upper
38:35echelon player, I'm not starting my
38:37lineup with Davis Thompson. There's just
38:39too much risk, not enough signs of a
38:42great putting week on the way. I'd
38:44rather start with a u a Bla1 Brown, a
38:47Justin Thomas, someone like that up up
38:50top. So, we'll see where Davis Thompson
38:53falls in the pricing and that will make
38:55our final decision whether we're a play
38:57or a fade, but there's definitely
38:59indicators of good performance with
39:02Davis Thompson. Then we look at uh the
39:05guy that I think will be the value play
39:07of the week. I don't know where he's
39:09going to fall in the pricing. Um, but
39:12and again when the pricing comes out,
39:14I'll do a little more analysis. I'll get
39:16you some really good value plays uh on
39:18the other social media channels, but
39:21looking at what we see with Zack Blair
39:24here, uh the guy just has a really hard
39:28time gaining strokes off the tea on the
39:30PGA Tour. And that is all because of
39:33distance. But at this golf course, I
39:36actually prefer accuracy over distance.
39:39One reason is it's short. So distance
39:41isn't a requirement. The other is
39:44there's gonna my guess is there's going
39:45to be a pretty good penalty for missing
39:47fairways and Zach Blair is going to be
39:50able to hit a lot of fairways. So while
39:52you see some struggles off the tea,
39:55these are distance related. They're not
39:57accuracy related. And the distance is
40:00going to go up this week because of
40:01elevation, the requirement is not going
40:04to increase it. It's not going to demand
40:06long drives. So I give a big advantage
40:09to a player like Zack Blair in this
40:12circumstance. His biggest weakness is
40:14mitigated and you can lean on his
40:17biggest strength which is his iron play.
40:20Struggling this week at the Simmons Bank
40:22so far, but that is ongoing. And uh at
40:25the Advent Health, he lost 3009 strokes.
40:29Again, that's on the Cornferry tour. But
40:31looking at what he's done on the PGA
40:33Tour, he's gained a shot or more in five
40:36straight PGA Tour events and added
40:38another one at the Boise Open on the
40:41Cornferry Tour where he gained 1.8,
40:43finished fourth. So, his iron play is
40:45elite. He is Zach Blair is exactly the
40:48type of player off the top of my head I
40:52would give you as the guy that's built
40:54for this golf course. He's accurate off
40:56the tea, precise with his iron play.
40:59Distance is not a requirement. This is a
41:01Zack Blair special. So, what about his
41:04putting? Oh, yeah. Remember, he was on
41:07our uh some of our putting lists as
41:09well. And this is why he's been putting
41:12great. You go all the way back to the US
41:14Open. I mean the the BMW charity ProAm
41:18on the cornfairy tour was the last time
41:20he lost strokes approaching uh lost
41:23strokes putting except he lost point4
41:26strokes at the Rocket and is you know
41:29losing a quarter of a shot right now at
41:31the Simmons Bank Championship. So this
41:34is um you know he hasn't lost a full
41:37shot in over two months uh on the greens
41:41and in pretty much every event he's
41:43gained significant strokes putting. He
41:46is the ideal player for this week. I I
41:50would play Zach Blair at almost any
41:53price under $10,000. My inclination is
41:56he's going to be like a $7,000 guy
41:59because the finishing positions don't
42:01look great. He missed the cut at the
42:02Windom. Missed the cut on the corn ferry
42:05tour at the Advent Health. Um it was a
42:08fourth at the Boise Open, but that's a
42:10Cornferry event. T50 at the Rocket
42:12Classic. But again, the the setup here
42:16is perfect for him. So, I think you're
42:18going to see a much I think you're going
42:20to see a lot of value and I think you're
42:22going to see his performance, his
42:24finishing position rise dramatically.
42:27Uh, so I I love what I'm seeing out of
42:30Zack Blair and I think this is a uh just
42:32a great spot for him. So, um, that's all
42:36we have for you here when we look at the
42:38players in this player pool. Again, I
42:41encourage you to give me a follow on
42:43social media. Uh, follow me on Twitter
42:45at the real GFD, but check out the
42:47Second Cut podcast on all the other
42:49social channels. Um, Facebook, Twitter,
42:54uh, Facebook, Tik Tok,
42:57what's the other one? Uh, Instagram.
42:59Yeah, that's a that's a good one. Give a
43:01follow there. I'll be sharing more
43:02content as we get a little more
43:04information as this week wears on. Um,
43:06I'll go through some of the more value
43:08plays as uh, pricing comes out for
43:11DraftKings and we'll put together a
43:14really solid plan for the week. But my
43:16hope is that this information and this
43:18strategy in handicapping this event is
43:21something that you found helpful. Uh I
43:24thank you for watching us here on this
43:25recorded episode. Uh unfortunately we
43:28had to do that given the u my travel
43:32situation later on this week. But on
43:34Friday and on Sunday I will be with you
43:37live uh breaking down everything that we
43:39see for round recaps at the Billboard
43:42Championship. Uh, Sunday will be a
43:44little bit after coverage. I will have
43:47postgame from 4 to 5 on SiriusXM and
43:50then I'll jump on here right after and
43:53uh we'll break down what we saw from a
43:55slightly different perspective. So, make
43:57sure you uh keep it right here. If you
43:59haven't already, hit that follow button,
44:02hit that subscribe button right here on
44:04the Second Cut podcast. We'll keep this
44:06train rolling. Um, that's the best way
44:08to support the show. Speaking of
44:10support, the Patreon account is
44:12something you can also get involved in
44:14if you would like. That link is in the
44:16description and it's something I
44:18encourage you to check out. If it's
44:20something you're interested in, it's a
44:21great way to support. There's certainly
44:23no need to. Uh but it this fall I am
44:27going to bolster that. I'm going to
44:29really um improve that Patreon system
44:32for you. So, those of you who are
44:34supporting the podcast have something
44:36that's a little more advantageous coming
44:39back to you. Um, but that's all we have
44:41for you here on the Second Cut today.
44:43Uh, keep it right here. Again, hit that
44:45subscribe button so when we talk again
44:46on Friday, you don't miss it. I'm Greg
44:49Ducharm. Thanks so much for watching us
44:50here on the Second Cut. We'll talk to
44:52you again next [music]
45:06[music]

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