BIG DAY FOR THE MARKETS... FOMC — Transcript

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1. 0:00Hello everybody, hope that you are good.
2. 0:02Today is the day, is the FOMC meeting.
3. 0:06Okay, so it's going to be a day with a
4. 0:07lot of volatility, spikes up and down.
5. 0:10So, I would suggest to keep your
6. 0:12positions light, to not be overexposed.
7. 0:16You know, be a strict with your risk
8. 0:17management because there is going to be
9. 0:20quite a lot false moves probably during
10. 0:22the FOMC. That's at 6:00 p.m. UTC time.
11. 0:27Now, what we are expecting, everybody is
12. 0:29expecting this is this is priced in is
13. 0:3125 basis points hike.
14. 0:35Everybody's pricing that in, okay?
15. 0:37So, the market is not going to react to
16. 0:40it when when they announce it. But, what
17. 0:42they are what the market is going to
18. 0:43react to is going to be the press
19. 0:44conference, the words of Jerome Powell.
20. 0:47And I want to hear what Jerome Powell
21. 0:49has to say about the debt ceiling
22. 0:51because Yellen said recently that they
23. 0:52are running out of money.
24. 0:54So, let's see what he says about the
25. 0:56debt ceiling. Also, the federal funds
26. 0:59futures market, they're pricing in a
27. 1:02hike of 25 basis points now today.
28. 1:06And then, three rate cuts this year of
29. 1:0825 basis points each. So, the most
30. 1:11likely thing is that Jerome Powell comes
31. 1:13out today and says, you know, "What I'm
32. 1:15not going to be What I'm not going to do
33. 1:16any rate cuts this year."
34. 1:18He said that they back in the 22nd of
35. 1:20March, the previous FOMC. So, the most
36. 1:22likely thing is that he says the same
37. 1:24thing.
38. 1:26Okay? Now, is he going to also say that
39. 1:28they're going to pause rates here?
40. 1:31Or that there might be more hikes? Cuz
41. 1:33if he says that there is going to be
42. 1:34more hikes, then the DXY is going to go
43. 1:36up, Bitcoin is going to go down.
44. 1:38Recession.
45. 1:40They're going to ask him about
46. 1:41recession. Let's see what he has to say
47. 1:43about it.
48. 1:44Now, it's You know, the past I remember
49. 1:46that they were always trying to avoid
50. 1:49that word. The word recession. Then, in
51. 1:52March, in the FOMC minutes, we could see
52. 1:57that they say that they're expecting a
53. 1:59mild recession over the next 2 years
54. 2:02with high inflation, also.
55. 2:04So, I think that we're going to have a
56. 2:05very interesting press conference. There
57. 2:07are a lot of questions, difficult
58. 2:09questions that the journalists can ask
59. 2:11Jerome Powell. I'm sure right now he's
60. 2:13there with his team
61. 2:15trying to figure it out all the answers
62. 2:18for any possible question. Because there
63. 2:20are a lot of things they can ask him,
64. 2:22okay? You know, all those things that I
65. 2:23just I just said. Now, let's go with
66. 2:25Bitcoin because yesterday we had the
67. 2:27move to 28,400.
68. 2:30We placed this arrow and price went
69. 2:32there because the market maker is
70. 2:33watching these videos.
71. 2:35Um now, to be honest, the prediction
72. 2:37could have been quite a lot better
73. 2:39because it really went to the 4-hour 50
74. 2:41MA, you can see. Okay, maybe I was too
75. 2:44conservative and that was a mistake, but
76. 2:46you can see that price went to the
77. 2:484-hour 50 MA, then it did some
78. 2:51consolidation below resistance with some
79. 2:53spikes up.
80. 2:55You can see in these weeks and that
81. 2:56means
82. 2:58according to my to my logic, that it's
83. 3:00because the market maker is building his
84. 3:01shorts. You can see with this candle.
85. 3:04All right. Um now, if we check I want to
86. 3:08go really quickly to the to the
87. 3:10to the S&P.
88. 3:12Let me check that really quickly.
89. 3:14Because I want to show you what I did
90. 3:15yesterday.
91. 3:16Okay? We were saying that yesterday it
92. 3:18would have to test this zone as support
93. 3:22and then it could have marched higher,
94. 3:24but it didn't. So, prices went back
95. 3:26inside the range, okay? That was the
96. 3:27other scenario that we had in mind. Now,
97. 3:29the 4-hour 50 MA is going to be the
98. 3:31resistance. You know, here it was the
99. 3:32support, you can see.
100. 3:34And now it's it's becoming resistance.
101. 3:36So, let's see how it reacts. In my
102. 3:37opinion, this candle here, what happened
103. 3:40yesterday,
104. 3:41that's in anticipation
105. 3:43of the FOMC meeting. And that's
106. 3:46basically because the institutions, the
107. 3:49the investors, they are just being
108. 3:51careful because they know there is going
109. 3:52to be quite a lot of volatility, so they
110. 3:53have they do a sell-off the day before.
111. 3:56That's that's what I think, okay? Let's
112. 3:59go back to Bitcoin really quickly.
113. 4:01Let's see
114. 4:02um
115. 4:04where we are right now. Interesting
116. 4:05thing is that they haven't still
117. 4:08filled this week.
118. 4:10Maybe that's the next move, okay? But, I
119. 4:13would like to first draw what market the
120. 4:17the zones of interest in the chart. We
121. 4:18have the week, we have this this
122. 4:20liquidity pool. Let's see what else I
123. 4:22can see.
124. 4:23Um I can see a liquidity pool here, too.
125. 4:27And another one here.
126. 4:31Okay? Now, let me get this here, copy
127. 4:34and paste
128. 4:35to mark these zones.
129. 4:39Okay. And let's remove the 50 EMA. So,
130. 4:43in my opinion, these are the zones of
131. 4:45interest in the chart. Now, today there
132. 4:47is going to be a lot of volatility with
133. 4:49the press conference, I think. So, the
134. 4:51most likely thing is that price do some
135. 4:53wild moves.
136. 4:55I think it's very likely
137. 4:57that today
138. 4:58we might see the week getting filled
139. 5:01and even
140. 5:02probably, too,
141. 5:03one of these liquidity pools or even
142. 5:05both. Cuz I'm telling you, markets
143. 5:09are going to be
144. 5:10quite wild.
145. 5:12I think this week is quite likely
146. 5:13because I'm expecting
147. 5:15Jerome Powell saying that there is not
148. 5:18going to be rate cuts this year, that
149. 5:20there might be more more rate increases,
150. 5:24maybe. They're going to be data
151. 5:25dependent, but for now probably they're
152. 5:27going to pause. Let's see what happens,
153. 5:28but I think this week, you know, any
154. 5:31word he says
155. 5:33it will trigger the move because there
156. 5:34are, you know, there there are
157. 5:35algorithms playing with keywords.
158. 5:38So, it's going to be live, you're going
159. 5:39to see in live that he says the word um
160. 5:44"potential new hikes" and you're going
161. 5:46to see a candle in the 1-minute time
162. 5:47frame doing this.
163. 5:49It's simple as that. It's a very
164. 5:50difficult and and and it's not
165. 5:53recommended to have trades open during
166. 5:55that time. So, what I would suggest is
167. 5:58to not have any positions open or any
168. 6:00limits orders set until the press
169. 6:03conference finishes, okay? And that
170. 6:05means, look, let me put it here for you.
171. 6:08Uh I think the the FOMC starts at 6:00.
172. 6:12Uh uh this is UTC time.
173. 6:15And then the press conference, I think
174. 6:17it starts at 6:30 UTC time. Okay, so
175. 6:21those are the times that we're going to
176. 6:23have all the information.
177. 6:25So, I would suggest
178. 6:27to not trade
179. 6:29uh 30 minutes before it starts the FOMC.
180. 6:33Um
181. 6:35and also, let me think.
182. 6:38The press conference probably lasts
183. 6:39about 30-45 minutes.
184. 6:42Um so, I would say probably
185. 6:45until
186. 6:47quarter past 7:00.
187. 6:50Okay?
188. 6:51And I'm going to call this
189. 6:54no
190. 6:55trading during.
191. 6:59Okay?
192. 7:00Um
193. 7:02So, yes, basically I'm not going to
194. 7:03trade 30 minutes before the FOMC starts.
195. 7:06And I'm not going to trade
196. 7:08until at least quarter past 7:00. So,
197. 7:11I'm going to give it a bit of room
198. 7:13to get all the information from the
199. 7:14FOMC, the press conference, see how they
200. 7:16may see how the market reacts. And then,
201. 7:19yes, you can trade imbalances because if
202. 7:21we go and we see what happened
203. 7:22previously
204. 7:24in the 22nd of March, that was the last
205. 7:26FOMC meeting. Let's have a look.
206. 7:2915-minute time frame.
207. 7:31Um let's go to the 22nd of March. It's
208. 7:35here. Okay, let's have a look. Let's
209. 7:37check this.
210. 7:39All right. So, you can see
211. 7:42how we had a clear resistance in this
212. 7:46zone. And then, at 6:00,
213. 7:49you know, they what they did is a stop
214. 7:50hunt, you know, a spike above that
215. 7:52resistance and then dump
216. 7:55all the way here and this is
217. 7:58I checked earlier, this should be a
218. 7:59$2,200
219. 8:01move.
220. 8:02Sorry, you can't see there.
221. 8:05This is a 200 2,300 dollar move.
222. 8:10Then, after the press conference, you
223. 8:12can see that price was
224. 8:15trying to retrace this imbalance.
225. 8:18Because yes, you can see all these large
226. 8:20weeks, that's a liquidity pool. Um this
227. 8:23is another liquidity pool.
228. 8:25This is another liquidity pool. So,
229. 8:27there is quite a lot of liquidity pools
230. 8:28here that need to be re-reached. You can
231. 8:30see there is a week here that also got
232. 8:33filled. Um that's what happened. A lot
233. 8:36of moves, a lot of volatility, a massive
234. 8:38move.
235. 8:39And then, they have to retrace the
236. 8:41imbalance. So, what we could expect to
237. 8:42see today, let me go back to today.
238. 8:44Let's see if we can figure it out.
239. 8:47Uh so, if we if they drop another 2,000
240. 8:50from here,
241. 8:52I mean,
242. 8:53that's a long way. Geez. Uh 1-hour time
243. 8:56frame, let me check.
244. 8:59I mean, what they could do is
245. 9:02What about
246. 9:04if they take us even lower? What about
247. 9:06if they go below this zone? Okay? What
248. 9:08about this if they do something like
249. 9:10this?
250. 9:11I'm just trying to to think, okay? Fill
251. 9:13the week
252. 9:14and go even a bit lower.
253. 9:17And then,
254. 9:18we may have something like this
255. 9:22and try to fill
256. 9:24this
257. 9:25later on. I would say probably before
258. 9:27the weekend, okay? But, it should be
259. 9:29before the weekend. So, what about if we
260. 9:30see something like this today?
261. 9:33You know, go below these lows,
262. 9:37fill the week, you know, a lot a lot of
263. 9:40liquidity pools in this zone,
264. 9:42and then retrace them.
265. 9:44Or we could see that it's impossible to
266. 9:47know because we don't know what he's
267. 9:48going to say today.
268. 9:50But, I'm expecting that he's not going
269. 9:52to be dovish. I'm expecting him to be
270. 9:54quite quite hawkish because I think he's
271. 9:57going to attack the Federal Funds
272. 9:59Futures market. So, the first move that
273. 10:01I'm expecting,
274. 10:03I might be wrong, is to go to the
275. 10:05downside
276. 10:07and then retrace that up. But, who
277. 10:10knows? Just, you know,
278. 10:12uh I'm going to wait because this we
279. 10:13might see this by inverted to the upside
280. 10:16and see this and see something like
281. 10:18this, you know?
282. 10:20Who knows?
283. 10:22And then retrace, and this would
284. 10:24probably go which also would make sense
285. 10:27above these highs here.
286. 10:29So, why not? We could see something like
287. 10:30this, also. So, I would suggest you guys
288. 10:34to wait, be patient. I think if you open
289. 10:37a trade before the FOMC,
290. 10:39that's pretty much gambling. I so
291. 10:42uh wait until the FOMC, wait wait until
292. 10:45the fresh conference finishes, see the
293. 10:46imbalance they've created, and then yes,
294. 10:48you can start to think about trading
295. 10:50those imbalances. So, thank you guys for
296. 10:52watching,
297. 10:53and I'll see you soon.