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Big Banks are Panicking — Transcript

by Felix Nikolas Prehn · 4,673 words · 660 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Just a few months ago, the biggest banks
0:02on Wall Street were fighting each other
0:04to lend money into the AI world. And
0:07just now, one of them tried to sell half
0:10a billion of those loans to literally
0:13anybody who would take them off its
0:14hands. And another just bought insurance
0:18in case the AI borrowers go bust. Now,
0:22banks don't run from their most
0:24profitable business for years unless
0:27there is a good reason for it. their run
0:30because they've seen the numbers. And
0:32they're not the only ones heading for
0:33the door. You got Michael the Bur, the
0:36investor who saw 2008 coming and made a
0:39fortune on it. He just told the world,
0:41"Get out of Nvidia before it's too
0:43late." And there's a good reason for
0:44that. I want to explain that to you.
0:46This isn't doom and gloom. But it is the
0:48most valuable company on the planet. And
0:50it is definitely sitting in your pension
0:52fund. It's definitely sitting in the
0:54index funds that you've been told are so
0:55safe. So, the banks are backing out of
0:58the loans. The man famous for calling
1:00the last major crash is telling you,
1:02well, run away from the thing you all
1:05own. And my goal with this video for the
1:07next few minutes is to make sure that by
1:08the end of it, you understand what they
1:11understand and show you one number that
1:13made me move real money. So, stay with
1:16me. If you're wondering who the heck I
1:17am and that was Winston, of course,
1:19brains behind it all. My name is Felix
1:21Nicholas Pin. I'm an economist, former
1:23investor, banker. I'm founder of the PIN
1:25Institute. We do research of financial
1:27markets. We teach people how financial
1:28markets actually work. My mentors teach
1:31that. And we take zero sponsorship, zero
1:33endorsements ever. And that way I can
1:35say whatever I like, whichever way I
1:37like to say it. Now, ton of stuff coming
1:40up in the next few minutes here. All the
1:43numbers, every source, every bank. I've
1:45put that into a short report for you.
1:47You can read it in 10 minutes. You can
1:48keep it. It's yours free. And you can
1:51download that at felix.org/banks.
1:53links down in the description down
1:56below. And honestly, the fact that
1:58you're even here trying to understand
2:00something as convoluted as bank lending
2:02and what the bur is thinking, uh, puts
2:05you ahead of almost everybody else out
2:07there because people find this stuff out
2:09from the headlines. And at that point,
2:12of course, it is too late to do anything
2:13about it. So, well, done you, he says.
2:17Does that sound condescending? It's not
2:18meant to. I I genuinely mean that. I'm
2:20always impressed how many people watch
2:22this. Um, so what happened here? Well,
2:25let's start with ING, one of the biggest
2:27banks in Europe. And oddly enough, when
2:30I started working in banking here in
2:31Hong Kong, the bank I was working for,
2:33um, Aussie Bank, they bought ING's team.
2:36Um, so I was working in ING in a sense
2:39for a little while, uh, which was which
2:41was quite interesting. Anyway, a year
2:43ago, these guys were happily lending
2:46into the AI, data centers, chips,
2:48anybody who wanted money. Now they've
2:50just put those loans up for auction.
2:54Half a billion dollars of that and it's
2:59tied to not some random micro data
3:02center, no startup someone's making in
3:05his mom's kitchen. No, it's open AI,
3:08Soft Bank, Oracle. And they invited
3:11other buyers to bid for this junk,
3:13sorry, these highquality loans. And if
3:15you think about what that really means,
3:18why does a bank sell its best?
3:21Well, they do it because they want to
3:23get risk of the risk before people
3:25figure out what the risk really is,
3:27right? Have you watched margin call
3:28about 2008? Right? That's what they were
3:30doing. And then there is another lovely
3:33bank called Barclays and a handful of
3:36others actually doing the same thing at
3:38the same time. They're buying insurance
3:40on their own loans and they pay every
3:43month a premium like you would for a
3:44life insurance or a health insurance or
3:46car insurance and they pay that to
3:48companies like AIG
3:50chub big insurance companies. So if
3:53their AI borrowers cannot pay, somebody
3:56else eats the loss. And that again
3:58sounds very much like what margin call
4:002008 was all about because you remember
4:02like American Insurance Group and all
4:03these companies, they were like almost
4:05bankrupt in 2008 because it insured all
4:07this mortgage junk, right? Obviously
4:10this time is very different.
4:13So the market gave us a little preview
4:16of what is going to happen at some point
4:17down the road. not necessarily this week
4:19or this month or even this year, but
4:22$2.5 trillion was lost on the NASDAQ
4:25100, America's 100 biggest tech
4:27companies in just one day, which is
4:29bigger than the economy of, you know,
4:31most countries. And you might still be
4:33thinking, yeah, but this doesn't really
4:34affect me and all that. And I get that
4:36we kind of always want to push these
4:37things away, right? Stop talks. Tell me
4:38about some good news. There'll be some
4:40good news. I tell just give me a minute.
4:41It'll be good news. Really good news,
4:42actually. But if you own an index fund
4:44like the S&P 500, which most pensions in
4:47the world basically do, you own Nvidia.
4:49It's like 8% of that. You own the big
4:51tech, you own the exact risk that the
4:54banks are now paying other people to
4:57take off their hats. So about 8% of your
5:00money is in Nvidia if you own index
5:01funds, right? And Michael Bur, who's a
5:04smart guy, he's not always right. He
5:05told people to sell. Why? Not because of
5:08the Jensen hangs, you know, can't keep
5:10himself to himself sort of thing, which
5:12is hugely surprising. Oh my god, a guy
5:14who made hundred billion dollars has got
5:15girlfriends. Amazing, right? Let's all
5:18panic. It's never happened, has it?
5:20[laughter]
5:22It didn't happen to Bezos. No, it
5:24definitely didn't happen to Bill Gates.
5:25It hasn't happened to Elon. He's got,
5:28you know, 98 children by, you know, 200
5:30aliens or something. So, big surprise.
5:34That's not what he's talking about. He's
5:35talking about the fact that
5:38a business like Nvidia, which is one of
5:41the greatest businesses on the planet,
5:42no doubt about it, that makes a product
5:44that is better than, you know, sliced
5:45bread. Um, at some point that product is
5:49no longer as rare as it once was because
5:52of the nature of the system we live in.
5:53Other people copy, right? Other people
5:55hire some Nvidia staff and then they
5:57build something similar and they get
5:58closer and closer and therefore what
6:00happens? Their prices go down somewhat.
6:04they can no longer charge quite at the
6:06premium that they're presently charging.
6:08And Nvidia, and let me just pull it up
6:10for you here in um if I could spell
6:12Nvidia, there's something that we look
6:14at as sort of, you know, fundamentalist
6:17investors, and that is margins. They
6:20have a gross margin of 75%. That is a
6:23margin you would associate with a
6:24software company. Why? Because once I
6:27make a piece of software, say you're
6:28Microsoft and you know the first
6:31thousand users cost you some money that
6:331,000 and first user cost you almost
6:35nothing at all because you've already
6:36built the system, you already got the
6:38software and the systems and the servers
6:39and everything else. So that one's
6:40basically pure profit. And that's what
6:42they're doing. And they also grew at
6:44105% their sales. And the law of numbers
6:50just tell you that this isn't going to
6:51continue forever after. So these margins
6:53are going to come down. That's
6:54essentially what the Bur is saying and I
6:57think he's he's right. I think that's
6:58just logical to happen to every great
7:00business ever in the world especially if
7:02they make hard ones. But the real
7:04problem is that the fund that you were
7:07told is diversified.
7:09It is an enormous bet on what the banks
7:12are presently run away from. They're
7:14protecting themselves and telling you
7:16about it. So who's protecting you? Let
7:19me show you something. I've pulled this
7:20chart up before because I think it's the
7:22most important chart in the world. If
7:24you only take one thing away from it,
7:26take a screenshot of this, please, and
7:28post it everywhere in the on the world
7:29because people need to understand this.
7:31People get this really badly wrong. So,
7:33let me slow down for a second. You've
7:36been told, I've been told, Winston's
7:38been told all of our life that the stock
7:40market on average will make about 10%
7:43per year. Right? That's what we've all
7:46been told. Every financial advisor tells
7:48you this. Everyone talks about this, but
7:50the trouble is that 10% a year never
7:54really happens in any given year. Look
7:57at what real returns look like over a
7:59stretch of years, right? Not selling
8:02your financial product here. Well, if we
8:04go back in time, 1928 to 1948, per year,
8:09and this is inflation adjusted, the
8:11market made 0.6%.
8:15Right now from 1949 postw war to 1968
8:20the market made 12.7%.
8:22Woo. Right then 1969 to 1984 which is
8:27sort of the period of you know Vietnam
8:29war and and and Nixon and and and all
8:31that stuff the market made 0.5%.
8:37Right now from 1985 to 1999 we made 15%.
8:40Woohoo. uh and then from 2000 to 2012 we
8:45made a negative 0.8%.
8:49That's a 12 year period. Now for the
8:51last 12 13 years we made about 12% per
8:55year. So we're all like it's always
8:56GOING TO BE 12% FOREVER AFTER this is
8:58amazing. I'm going to retire. I'm going
9:00to be a squillionaire. It' be great.
9:01I'll buy another pitch. Yeah. So the
9:04average of all of this is that 10% that
9:07financial advisor chuck at you. But if
9:09you retired at the start of one of these
9:13periods, you did not get what you were
9:15promised. You got a lost decade or
9:18longer. 10 years of putting money in and
9:20watching it set still while you're
9:22spending the money because you're
9:23retired. So this average up here is
9:26marketing bollocks from the fund
9:29industry, right? It is not a promise.
9:32It's not going to happen. But
9:35I can tell you that the smart guys, the
9:38trained guys, the skilled guys on Wall
9:41Street, they were not sitting from, you
9:44know, from 2000. Let me get a pen. You
9:46can actually see from 2000 to just 2012,
9:51the market made minus0.8%
9:54on average after inflation. I can tell
9:57you Wall Street did better than that. I
9:59can tell you fund managers did better
10:01than that. Hedge fund guys did better
10:02than that. the traders did better that
10:04and plenty of people who simply
10:06understood how money moves made a lot
10:08more money than that and that's a skill
10:11and you probably haven't been taught it
10:13which isn't your fault but what if I
10:16told you that in that same period 2012
10:19so this is the S&P what if I told you
10:22that there was a sector an industry that
10:25made like 165% in that time period
10:29wouldn't you want to know what that was
10:30and how people found it because it life
10:33changing between like you know living
10:35off sardines uh which my cats would
10:37quite like but for most of us is a
10:40little bit stale. So when the market
10:42returns 0% for 10 years you're in
10:45trouble unless you learn how to position
10:47your money so that this flat ugly 10
10:50years doesn't wipe you out and can
10:54actually be the making of you. So that
10:56is the thing I am most passionate about
11:00teaching here. energy went up 165% in
11:02that time period, right? 2020 2016. And
11:06I'd love to pull you by the ears and the
11:09nose and the ponytail and drag you into
11:12about a twohour live trading, which will
11:14be fun, I promise you, and eye opening,
11:17and actually teach you how to prepare
11:19for that because the likelihood is, and
11:23I haven't got a crystal ball. I don't
11:24know what's going to happen tomorrow.
11:26Nobody does. People who tell you are
11:27just plain out making up. when you
11:30have periods that are extraordinary,
11:33right? And we've just had a period,
11:35we're at the tail end of a period that's
11:37been extraordinary. Making money in the
11:40market has never been easier. Doesn't
11:43mean it's easy, but it's never been
11:44easier. Isn't the likelihood that we're
11:46therefore going to get another period
11:48where just not a lot happens and then
11:50we're going to get another glorious
11:52period where lots of good stuff happens.
11:54But that period here could be the next
11:5610 years of your life. So if you want to
11:58come and be prepared for that and
12:00actually enjoy that period because I
12:02certainly will be. Come and go to how to
12:05prepare.org. Link is down below in the
12:06description. It's also in the pinned
12:08comment. We're very efficient that way.
12:10And join me on Saturday. I think it's
12:139:00 a.m. New York time. It should be
12:14about 2 or 3 p.m. somewhere in Europe or
12:17London. Uh and and and you know, God
12:19knows wherever else you are in the
12:20world. Stay up for it because we won't
12:22have a replay and we'll do it live and
12:23you can ask me questions and I'll
12:24actually teach you that. That sounds
12:26good. You want to be prepared, write
12:29prepared in the chat or just a PP to
12:32really confuse people who haven't made
12:33it this far on the video. Okay, so now
12:35that you know what to do about it,
12:36right, come come and learn with me on
12:38Saturday because this bank story goes
12:41actually a lot deeper than just a couple
12:43of loans and a couple of random European
12:45or British banks. There is a thing that
12:48banks do and it is called
12:51structured risk transfer and it sounds
12:55technical but it's quite simple.
12:57When a bank has one enormous loan to say
13:00a single data center, and that loan is
13:02just too big, too concentrated to just
13:04be really comfortable with, they slice
13:07it up. So they keep the safe looking top
13:10slice and they push the riskiest crap,
13:13the bottom slice, out to
13:16private credit funds and insurers
13:20because they're a little bit more uh
13:22gullible. So the most dangerous part of
13:25the AI boom is being posted to somebody
13:29else and they're doing it really really
13:32quickly so they can get rid of the risk
13:34before you know stuff hits the fan. And
13:36honestly just think for a second where
13:39the risk goes because risk doesn't
13:41vanish goes into insurers pension funds
13:45because they're run by lunatics who want
13:47a few percentage points more yield and
13:50don't understand risk. So maybe your
13:52bank's going to get out clean, right?
13:54But it'll end up in your pension fund.
13:57So you're going to get hit with this
13:58through a different door, right? The hot
14:00potato basically gets passed around to
14:02the dumbest lunatic running a fund or a
14:06pension fund or something like that. And
14:08it isn't just one little random corner
14:10of the market. JP Morgan, right, the
14:13greatest bank in America, just ask, I'll
14:15tell you. They're sitting on about 29
14:17billion dollars of data center linked
14:19loans. It's their second largest piece
14:22of um lending essentially. And then look
14:26at the price that the market is putting
14:28on this. Coreweave, one of the big AI
14:31infrastructure players, has bonds
14:33trading at a 16% interest rate. Now,
14:38when people pay a 16% interest rate, uh
14:41it means it's dodgy as hell because
14:45there's no one willing to lend to you
14:47at, you know, 7% 8% 10%. And everyone's
14:50going, "No, but pay me 16 and some crazy
14:54person will lend you money." Right?
14:55That's usually the way it works. It's a
14:56bit like if you get a credit card and
14:58you've got like bugger or credit rating,
15:00they're going to charge you 30%
15:02interest, right? And I pray to God that
15:05you don't have a balance on your credit
15:07card at the end of the month. Pay that
15:08stuff off. Nothing else you do in life
15:10matters if you got credit card balance.
15:13But this is basically distress pricing.
15:15It's really bloody obvious. But what
15:18makes this so dangerous is the way this
15:20financial industry now works is that one
15:22AI company will invest billions in
15:25another and then that one spends money
15:27on buying chips and cloud computing from
15:30the first company and then from a third
15:32and then the third signs a giant supply
15:34contract back with the first and on
15:35paper everyone is BOOKING RECORD REVENUE
15:37GROW. GOD, THE GRACE is amazing. But in
15:40reality, it's basically the same pile of
15:41money just doing around with a bunch of
15:44people. And most people don't understand
15:46that circle. They don't want to hear
15:48about it. I get it. It's not positive
15:49news. But the banks understand it,
15:52right? They've helped to build it. They
15:54created the circle and the regulators
15:58have, you know, done it too. Europe is
16:01really great at one thing and
16:02regulation, right? Innovation. Nope.
16:04technology. Don't know what that is. But
16:06regulation, who they are, they are the
16:08world's best at that. And they are
16:10weighing up a formal review of how much
16:12its banks have lent into AI because
16:15across the Euro area, it's about 200
16:18billion euros, which is the monkey
16:20currency that they use in Europe. It's
16:22sort of a a dollar, you know, but it
16:24makes no sense. Now, the Bank of England
16:26is asking its own banks some hard
16:29questions about speculative data center
16:32loans. And when these guys wake up, it's
16:34usually fairly late because they're
16:35pretty sleepy institutions, right?
16:37They'd rather sit in their wood panel
16:38room, swigary, and you know, talk about
16:41monetary policy. Uh so if you put all of
16:45this together, the banks are auctioning
16:47off loans, insuring loans, slicing the
16:50loans, and shoving the rubbish out the
16:52back door to insurers and other gullible
16:55money managers. And the central banks
16:57are waking up out of their slumber and
16:58going, "Oh my god, really? What
16:59happened? What happened? What happened?
17:00Someone someone someone do a review or
17:02something at least that way we can say
17:04we were looking into it right you don't
17:07really do this if you think everything
17:09is wonderful and hunky dory do and then
17:12there is Michael Barry let's revisit our
17:15friend now Barry ran a fund called Seon
17:19in and in the mid200s what everybody
17:22else was saying house prices only ever
17:24go up forever after because it's
17:26happened like that for the last 10 years
17:28right which is the recency bias idiocy
17:32that we've all been infected with. Um he
17:34said they're rotten and he bet against
17:36American housing markets. Brilliant
17:38films made on it. It's quite
17:39entertaining. And he was early. He was
17:41mocked and then eventually he was right
17:43and then he made a fortune. And I know
17:44he's still mocked but he's got a
17:46fortune. So he no longer gives a hoot
17:48about what was said. And he just said
17:51get out of Nvidia before it's too late.
17:53And he gave two reasons for it. Reason
17:55number one is Jensen Huang, the boss of
17:58Nvidia, Bori basically said he is well
18:02an enormous amount of Nvidia's power
18:04sits inside that one man lap. Right now
18:08we realize since that other people sat
18:10in that lap. So um the trouble with that
18:13is a lot of these relationships circular
18:16financing all this stuff it was done by
18:19Jensen the Huang personally. So, you
18:22take him out of the picture, which
18:23they've just done. Um um they've hung
18:26him up, hung him up. Um well, these
18:29customers suddenly no longer have that
18:31emotional friendship relationship to
18:33Envidia. So, maybe they're going to slow
18:35down their orders a little bit. Maybe
18:36they're going to push back a little bit
18:37on price. Maybe they're going to walk
18:39across the road to a competitor. And
18:42that is a potential problem. Now the
18:45second reason is Nvidia has been helping
18:49to finance its own customers purchases.
18:52Nvidia sells the chips. Nvidia helps
18:55provide the money for its customers to
18:57buy those chips. So some of that
18:59record-breaking revenue is basically
19:01Nvidia's own money going out one door
19:04and then strolling back in another door
19:06and going, "I knew revenue. I knew
19:08money." Honest. It looks wonderful, but
19:13it's a company lending to itself in a
19:15circle and calling it growth, right? And
19:17I made a video on that more than a year
19:19or two ago. You can look that up if you
19:20like. And people were like, "You're
19:21crazy." I'm like, "Well, am I?" Um, it's
19:24entirely possible, of course, that I'm,
19:26you know, self-deifiable. But the
19:28lending to its own customers, the money
19:30going around between a few giants, the
19:32record revenue, the same cash to lapse,
19:35right? He's basically pointing to that.
19:38And he says that's what the banks are
19:40running from. But it's not some random
19:42tech company. No, it is the most
19:45profitable biggest tech company in
19:48company quite frankly in the world. And
19:51if you just pull this up here in the
19:52Winston app, look at revenue growth,
19:54right? Look at that. More and more and
19:56more and more and more and more every
19:57quarter. Growth rate 106%. Just
20:00mathematically there is no business that
20:02will keep growing under 106%. because it
20:05means you double from one quarter to the
20:08previous year's quarter and it's just
20:11never going to happen because at some
20:13point well you would be bigger than the
20:15whole world right so there is a ceiling
20:18to growth even if you are Nvidia and you
20:20you know make the best thing since
20:22sliced bread and you cure cancer which
20:25is the anthropic pitch I thought that
20:27was quite good anthropic CEO comes out
20:29and says we know we're going to cure
20:31cancer in just be a few years AI is
20:33amazing buy my IPO Okay. Um, this is,
20:35you know, obviously the six times over
20:38subscribed as I'm recording this, so
20:39it's obviously working. Um, I'm not
20:42telling you run out and say sell your
20:43Nvidia or your tech stocks. It's your
20:45decision. It's your money. What I'm
20:46telling you is that the guy famous for
20:48calling the last crash, he's basically
20:50saying this thing Nvidia, be very, very
20:53careful. And don't get me wrong, Nvidia
20:55will be around in 10 or 20 years. I
20:56think it'll be a great business. But the
20:58valuation, not so much. And there's one
21:01more door that I want to open up for you
21:03because it kind of ties together
21:05everything I just talked about into the
21:07bigger picture and it shows you where
21:10the really big money actually sits. This
21:12week, America sold about $25 billion,
21:17which is quite a bit of money, and they
21:20sold basically debt, right? So, it's a
21:22it's a loan essentially that people are
21:23giving the American government, and it's
21:25a 30-year loan, 30 years. and they had
21:30to pay borrowers more than 5.4%
21:34to take those 25 billion off their their
21:37hands. And maybe you think, well, random
21:39doesn't sound too expensive. Well, it
21:42is, I think, the highest number they
21:43paid in a very very very long time. And
21:46that number actually matters to you. It
21:48isn't some abstract about, oh, the
21:50debt's going to get bigger. Who cares?
21:52The 30-year bond rate sets the tone for
21:56your mortgage, every business loan out
21:58there. It's essentially the cost of
22:00money on Earth. And if you look at the
22:03American housing market, let's tie this
22:04back to 2008, it's at the worst level
22:06since 2010. So, it's at the stage that
22:09it was at after the wreckage of the
22:12global financial crisis, which is all
22:13about American housing. High borrowing
22:16costs freeze the whole thing. Basically,
22:20nobody can afford to buy at these
22:21mortgage rates. Nobody who already has a
22:24cheap mortgage wants to sell and give up
22:26the mortgage rate they already have. So,
22:29what happens? Well, when housing
22:32goes, it tends to drag a lot of stuff
22:35with it because so much of most people's
22:38wealth in America is tied up in their
22:40home, right? And then you've got Scott
22:43Bessant, the mighty Treasury Secretary,
22:46basically saying, "Well, we can just
22:49bend the debt problem. We can um create
22:52more growth and we can bring spending
22:54under control."
22:57Now, that's been promised to us for
22:59many, many decades, which is never going
23:01to happen. Neither one nor the other. If
23:03you stopped spending, you're going to
23:06get a huge freaking recession for many,
23:08many, many years. You could try to grow.
23:11outrun the debt. Yeah, that's not really
23:13going to happen either because actually
23:15mathematically that's virtually
23:16impossible. So the only thing that they
23:18can actually do again is print money.
23:20And they're doing that at an
23:22extraordinary rate right now. So if you
23:25zoom out for a second and and let me ask
23:27you how comfortable you feel right now,
23:28I'll just put it in one word in the
23:30comments. The banks are selling AI. The
23:32government is paying 5.4% 4% to get
23:36people to give it money, which is going
23:38to push up mortgages even further.
23:40Housing market's already completely
23:42frozen over. And
23:45the guy who runs the market, the sorry
23:48money, he thinks he runs the market, but
23:49he just runs the money. Bessent, he
23:51says, "Well, we could we could just
23:52spend less. We could just cause some
23:54real pain on everybody." Um, which isn't
23:58going to happen, by the way, but it just
24:00shows how little of a plan they have.
24:02And then remember that chart I showed
24:03you again, you know, the one about the
24:05lost decades. It's not a random thing.
24:08It happens again and again and again and
24:09again. It's part of the system. Um, if
24:12you
24:14made no money of your investments on the
24:16next 10 years, what would life look like
24:17for you? What would retirement look like
24:19for you? Maybe you'd be fine. Um, but I
24:22think there is a way to enjoy every
24:25decade. No matter what the market does,
24:27there's a way to enjoy every decade. no
24:28matter what the politicians do. And the
24:31way to get to that, it runs through
24:35training. It runs through being a
24:37trained money
24:39operator because you already operate
24:41your money. You already manage your
24:42money. You could panic. You can sell
24:44everything. You'll definitely lose.
24:45Don't do that, please. That's a really,
24:46really dumb idea. But what you can do
24:49instead, come and learn. And that's what
24:51this whole community is about here.
24:53We've taught 25,000 people or so the
24:55last six or seven years. And it's what
24:57me and my mentors enjoy the most. It's
24:59incredibly rewarding. It also makes up
25:00for the fact that we were bankers at
25:02some point which obviously, you know,
25:05got a lot of our our maras to say. So
25:07come to hydrop.org. Grab yourself a seat
25:09and I look forward to seeing you live on
25:12Saturday. And if you got some value out
25:14of this, if some of this was a little
25:16bit of a jolt that maybe you needed,
25:18share it with somebody. That the only
25:20thing I'd ask and I wish you all the
25:22best. Right now, I think we're going
25:24through some sort of weird phase
25:25transition. And normally when you get
25:28bad economic news or you get bad jobs
25:31data that people are going to fly to
25:33safety into the bond

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