BEST NFL SUNDAY PICKS (HUGE VALUES💥) | PRIZEPICKS and KALSHI PLAYER PROPS & PREDICTIONS 10/4 — Transcript

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1. 0:00NFL Sunday is here. Last Sunday, we
2. 0:03absolutely cooked, hitting a full 6.5x
3. 0:07and cashing so many of you out for over
4. 0:10$600. We're going to be looking to run
5. 0:12that back today. I got my favorite five
6. 0:14picks for you in this video, and we are
7. 0:16going to be taking them on Underdog
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17. 0:41today. Code bill links down below. Now
18. 0:43we're going to jump right into today's
19. 0:44pick. Make sure first drop a like on the
20. 0:47video. Make sure you subscribe to the
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24. 0:56NBA is also coming up. I'm going to be
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26. 1:00entire season. The entire month of
27. 1:02September and the beginning of October.
28. 1:05I really have just been doing NFL
29. 1:06because honestly, it's what I love. It's
30. 1:08what I'm deep in the numbers with every
31. 1:10single day. So, it made the most sense
32. 1:11to actually give you guys the most
33. 1:13detailed possible breakdowns. But, I
34. 1:14love the NBA and I'm so excited for that
35. 1:17to come back around October 20th. So,
36. 1:19stay tuned. Now, before we jump into the
37. 1:22picks, I have one final thing. If you
38. 1:24guys want access to our VIP Discord,
39. 1:27this is a big community where we talk
40. 1:29about the games, we sweat out all the
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43. 1:35joining, we send all of our favorite
44. 1:37picks in here. We're hitting at a 63%
45. 1:40clip on our play of the day this year.
46. 1:42170 wins, 100 losses. We're up over
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48. 1:48literally five bucks on every slip we've
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50. 1:53grand. If you put 10 bucks, you'd be up
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53. 2:00verified by Pickicket. So, go ahead,
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55. 2:04normally a h 100red bucks a month. As a
56. 2:06nice little bonus, though, if you guys
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60. 2:14picks. You'll get all the NFL Sunday as
61. 2:16well. NBA will be included, too. So,
62. 2:18lock in. And then, if you already have
63. 2:20underdog, just I'll give you one more
64. 2:22option. You can also download Koshi.
65. 2:24Promo code bill gets you up to 2,000
66. 2:27bucks when you deposit and trade your
67. 2:29first $25. Links to everything down
68. 2:31below. Let's break it down. As I told
69. 2:34you guys, we cashed big last week. We
70. 2:37also hit on Thursday Night Football last
71. 2:39week, not on uh this week's Thursday
72. 2:41night. We got sold the other night by um
73. 2:43Darnell Washington and Deshawn Watson. I
74. 2:46mean, Washington came through. Watson
75. 2:48did not. So, we're looking to swing back
76. 2:50today. and uh let's break it down. So,
77. 2:54let me head over to my pick section so I
78. 2:56can show you guys what I'm cooking up.
79. 2:58So, I'm going to give you the 1:00 p.m.
80. 3:00window first and then we're going to
81. 3:02talk about the late night game between
82. 3:03the Lions and Panthers. So, if you're
83. 3:05tuning in late, skip ahead a couple
84. 3:07minutes, you'll see the picks for uh the
85. 3:09late night game. So, in the early
86. 3:11window, personally, I am rocking with
87. 3:13Kairen Williams, higher than 58 1/2
88. 3:16rushing yards, and I'm also rocking with
89. 3:18Michael Wilson, higher than 56 1/2
90. 3:20receiving yards. So, I put 50 on this to
91. 3:24win 200. Underdog gave me a nice little
92. 3:26boost. The max you can put down when you
93. 3:28get a boost is 50 bucks. So, obviously,
94. 3:30I put the max. And let's start by
95. 3:33talking about Michael Wilson. He has
96. 3:36been a money machine on the channel for
97. 3:39us, really dating back to last season.
98. 3:41Obviously, Michael Wilson's been in the
99. 3:43league a couple years. He really had his
100. 3:45big breakout at the end of 2025, as you
101. 3:47guys can see here. And he's carried that
102. 3:49momentum into 2026 a bit, especially in
103. 3:52his most recent game against the San
104. 3:53Francisco 49ers. This was a game where I
105. 3:57mean, it was highscoring 36-30. But the
106. 3:59most important thing I want you guys to
107. 4:01know is not the fact that he got 89
108. 4:03yards, which is obviously respectable,
109. 4:05guys. He got 17 targets in this game.
110. 4:10That is absolutely insane. 11
111. 4:12receptions, 17 targets. And not only
112. 4:15that, but he had a 31% target share in
113. 4:19that most recent game, as you guys can
114. 4:21see here. That is ridiculous. It's clear
115. 4:23Marvin Harrison Jr. has not been a part
116. 4:25of the offense. It's clear Michael
117. 4:27Wilson and Trey McBride are the entire
118. 4:29passing offense and that should continue
119. 4:31against the New York Giants defense
120. 4:32which does rank below average against
121. 4:34wide receivers getting up about 156
122. 4:37yards per game. This one is in New York.
123. 4:39I'm not too concerned about the weather
124. 4:41or anything. Michael Wilson should be
125. 4:43able to get the job done. He's averaging
126. 4:4575 yards across his last 10 games with
127. 4:48Jacobe Buret as the starter. And you're
128. 4:50telling me I get a match up against a
129. 4:51below average secondary in a game where
130. 4:53the Cardinals should have the ball,
131. 4:55should be very competitive, if not
132. 4:58winning this one against uh the Giants
133. 5:00without Jackson Dart. I find no reason
134. 5:03to believe Michael Wilson shouldn't go
135. 5:04above 56 and a half. He's an absolute
136. 5:06animal at wide receiver. He's cashed us
137. 5:08out two times this year. We took him in
138. 5:11weeks one over about 44 and a half. We
139. 5:14took him in week three over about 40
140. 5:16something and a half. I showed it
141. 5:18earlier in the video. And I have no
142. 5:20doubt he's gonna go above 56 and a half.
143. 5:22So, Michael Wilson, my dog. Uh, I'm
144. 5:25gonna keep rocking with him until I
145. 5:26guess the weird wheels fall off because
146. 5:29he's hooked on this channel. Anyway,
147. 5:32next play is going to be Kairen Williams
148. 5:34at 58 and a half rushing yards. This is
149. 5:36one of those numbers that just honestly
150. 5:38feels very low. Kairen averaged 71 yards
151. 5:41per game last year. I'm uh putting the
152. 5:43hood up. It's actually good luck. last
153. 5:45few times I put it up, but uh he's
154. 5:47absolutely cooked last year. 72 yards
155. 5:50per game. Hit this in 75% of his games.
156. 5:52This year the big thing was that Blake
157. 5:54Corum was going to be cutting into his
158. 5:55snaps more. And honestly, he is a little
159. 5:57bit. But I'm not even concerned because
160. 5:59Pukanu is banged up. Miles Garrett's
161. 6:01banged up. Aaron Donald's banged up. And
162. 6:03this Philadelphia Eagles defense is not
163. 6:05good at all. They just got absolutely
164. 6:07lit up by Case Keenum. And they have
165. 6:10looked horrible on the ground and
166. 6:12through the air across the last few
167. 6:14weeks. Philadelphia currently has a
168. 6:16bottom six run defense in the NFL giving
169. 6:18up 110 yards per game. So if you're
170. 6:20telling me I have Matthew Stafford back
171. 6:22there slinging the rock and Kairen
172. 6:24Williams at 58 and a half rushing yards
173. 6:27in a very winnable game against the
174. 6:29Eagles where Kairen is coming off backto
175. 6:32back 85 plus yard rushing performances
176. 6:35averaging give or take 13 carries a
177. 6:37game. I love him to go above this. But I
178. 6:40mean, even in the game against Denver
179. 6:41last week where the Rams lost, he still
180. 6:44went above uh 58 and a half comfortably.
181. 6:46So, this number honestly just feels kind
182. 6:48of disrespectful. He's averaging 70
183. 6:50across his last 10 and he's doing it
184. 6:52against better defenses than
185. 6:53Philadelphia. So, yeah, Kairen Williams
186. 6:56should have a solid day. I'm not saying
187. 6:58he's going for 100, but 58 and a half,
188. 7:00it just feels too low for me. So, that
189. 7:02is my first twoman of the day. the
190. 7:05second twoman, which I put a hundred on
191. 7:08to win 350. And uh stick around, I'm
192. 7:11gonna talk about one more pick at the
193. 7:12end of the video for the night game
194. 7:14between the Panthers and the Lions. It's
195. 7:16going to be Brock Perie, higher than 17
196. 7:19a half rushing yards against the
197. 7:21Broncos. And then it's going to be Jir
198. 7:24Gibbs, higher than 35 12 receiving yards
199. 7:27against the Panthers. So, let's start
200. 7:29with the Brock Party play. I think that
201. 7:31one is um probably one of my favorites
202. 7:33of the day. I think it might even be my
203. 7:35favorite. So, dating back to last season
204. 7:37and Brock Party's last five starts,
205. 7:40really his last six starts, he was using
206. 7:42his legs a ton and that translated or I
207. 7:45should say carried over into this year
208. 7:47because Brock Party has been a menace.
209. 7:50He's the MVP front runner right now. I
210. 7:52know people are going to say Josh Allen,
211. 7:53but if you look at the numbers and the
212. 7:54way the teams have played, Brock Party
213. 7:56is undeniably the number one candidate
214. 7:58right now. And I hate the 49ers. I'm
215. 8:00just obviously watching the game as a
216. 8:02fan, but Perie has been scrambling out
217. 8:04of the pocket. He even had a big run
218. 8:06called back by a flag last week and he
219. 8:08did and he did this against pretty solid
220. 8:10run defenses. Miami, believe it or not,
221. 8:13they ranked number 12 and then Los
222. 8:15Angeles ranks as number 11. And you guys
223. 8:17can see Pury went for 29, 30, and 34
224. 8:20rush yards across these games right
225. 8:22here. And Denver can definitely get to
226. 8:24the quarterback a bit. So given the fact
227. 8:27that the Broncos are a very bad run
228. 8:29defense, they rank bottom three in total
229. 8:31rushing yards given up per week, 143.7
230. 8:36rushing yards against per week. Brock
231. 8:38party hitting this in literally seven
232. 8:41straight starts and this being a very
233. 8:43loable game for the 49ers where they're
234. 8:46actually going to be passing deep into
235. 8:47the game. They're going to be needing
236. 8:48Brock Pury to use his legs, improvise,
237. 8:51make plays. I find no reason to believe
238. 8:53he shouldn't be able to get over 18
239. 8:55rushing yards. And that leads me into
240. 8:57our last pick of the day or really I
241. 9:00should say I should say or uh final pick
242. 9:02in the twoman. I'm going to talk about
243. 9:03one more play at the end. But Jir Gibbs
244. 9:07higher than 36 and a half receiving
245. 9:08yards. Last year he didn't really hit
246. 9:10this at too nice of a clip. Only in 29%
247. 9:13of his games, but a lot of this was just
248. 9:14due to the fact that he wasn't on the
249. 9:16field as much. David Montgomery was
250. 9:17there. This season obviously the Lions
251. 9:19bring in Isaiah Pacheco. Pacheco ends up
252. 9:21going to injured reserve before this
253. 9:23before the season starts. And now Jir
254. 9:25Gibbs is just a one-man backfield
255. 9:27tearing through defenses. Over the last
256. 9:29three games this season so far, he's
257. 9:31averaging 52 receiving yards per game
258. 9:34and he's getting give or take about a
259. 9:3620% target share over the last two
260. 9:39weeks. 19% against the Bills and then
261. 9:41also gets 24% against the Jets. And
262. 9:45believe it or not, this is a game where
263. 9:46I believe it could be a potential
264. 9:48shootout. I mean, the Carolina Panthers
265. 9:50offense has looked really solid this
266. 9:52year. Bryce Young, Bryce Young actually
267. 9:54leads the NFL in passing yards as of
268. 9:57right now when I'm recording this. So
269. 9:59given the fact that the Lions defense
270. 10:01has looked awful, Bryce Young has been
271. 10:03cooking, and the fact that this Lions
272. 10:05offense can still score points, I find
273. 10:08no reason to believe that the allpro
274. 10:10running back getting eight targets in
275. 10:12back-to-back weeks, going for 60 and 65
276. 10:15yards in a game that is definitely
277. 10:17potential to be a passing game script.
278. 10:21And the Panthers rank bottom 10 in
279. 10:23receiving yards given up to the running
280. 10:25back position. I love Jir Gibbs at 36.5.
281. 10:30I think it is an absolute steal and that
282. 10:32is definitely going to be my next play
283. 10:34of the day. Underdog actually gave me 35
284. 10:36and a half. Let me take that back. I
285. 10:37like it even more now at 35 and a half,
286. 10:39but I would take it at 36, too. Um, and
287. 10:41then we have one final play for the day
288. 10:44for you guys. That is going to be over
289. 10:45on Jared [music]
290. 10:47Goff. Higher than 260 passing yards.
291. 10:50Last year, Jared Goff hit this at only a
292. 10:5247% clip, averaging 269 passing yards
293. 10:56per game, which is obviously not the
294. 10:58prettiest in the world, but I want to go
295. 10:59back to what I just told you before. Why
296. 11:01do I like Jared Goff? Why do I like this
297. 11:03offense? Simply because I hate this
298. 11:05Lions defense. They're not good. Bryce
299. 11:08Young is cooking. He's at the top of the
300. 11:10NFL in passing yards right now. Carolina
301. 11:13is at home. They're going to put up
302. 11:15points. Jared Goff is going to need to
303. 11:17throw the ball. So, I don't care how
304. 11:18good Carolina's passing defense is. This
305. 11:21Lions offense is potent. They have
306. 11:24Almond Rosane Brown. They have Jamison
307. 11:26Williams. They have Jamir Gibbs out of
308. 11:27the back field. They have a really good
309. 11:29offensive line. Even Isaac Tesla, Sam
310. 11:31Laaporta, like they are going to move
311. 11:33the ball. And in a game that should be
312. 11:36competitive, as we saw the last two
313. 11:38weeks, Jared Goff went for 327 and three
314. 11:41and excuse me, 269. He's hit this in
315. 11:44seven of his last 10 games.
316. 11:47literally missing it twice in his last
317. 11:49eight. So, six of his last eight. I love
318. 11:52Jared Goff for more than 260 passing
319. 11:54yards. That's going to be my final bonus
320. 11:56play that I give to you guys in this
321. 11:58video. But, make sure to go down below
322. 12:00in the comment section and let me know
323. 12:01what you guys think, what you're
324. 12:03tailing, what you're fading, and then
325. 12:05most importantly, make sure you're
326. 12:07tracking your results. This is so
327. 12:09important. I know so many of you guys
328. 12:11are just blindly locking in slips. I
329. 12:14highly recommend you check out Picket.
330. 12:16This is a completely free app that I'm
331. 12:18going to link down below. If you sign up
332. 12:20with code bill, they'll give you
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335. 12:25account you have. Underdog, couch sheet,
336. 12:27prize picks, whatever it is. And it'll
337. 12:29tell you how much you're up on the day,
338. 12:31the week, the month, the year, all that
339. 12:32good stuff. And uh yeah, it's just an
340. 12:35awesome app. So go ahead and check out
341. 12:37Pickicket. Again, I will leave a link
342. 12:38down below for all of you guys to take a
343. 12:40look at. And I hope you all have an
344. 12:42absolutely amazing NFL Sunday. Let's get
345. 12:45this money.