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BEST NFL PROPS TODAY | BEST BETS | SUNDAY 10/4/26 | NFL WEEK 4 | BONUS TOUCHDOWN BET 🔥 — Transcript

by In The Green DFS · 14,637 words · 1,986 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00What's up everybody? Happy Sunday and
0:02welcome to In the Green DFS. This is
0:04going to be your Sunday NFL free pick
0:05video. In this video, we have three
0:07excellent plays coming your way. First
0:09things first, all three plays today will
0:11be on the Onyx app. We'll show you how
0:12to get that here in a few. First play,
0:13we got you guys a threeman play for the
0:151 p.m. slate of games. This has got a
0:174.74x multiplier. We're going 300 to win
0:201422 on that one. Then for the 4pm slate
0:22of games, we have you as an Onyx twoman
0:24play, rather a three-man play, sorry,
0:26with a 5.07x 07x multiplier going 300 to
0:29win521 there. And of course, we have not
0:31forgotten, we're going to bring you guys
0:32the Onyx twoman anytime touchdown play.
0:35This one's got almost a 6x multiplier
0:36going 300 to win almost 1,800 on that
0:38one. And my friends, before we get this
0:40video rocking and rolling, show some
0:42love. We cash you guys yet another free
0:43play on the Saturday MLB slate. We'll go
0:46over that here in a minute. Uh but if
0:47you guys don't mind, let's get that
0:48housekeeping out of the way first and
0:49foremost here. Like the video, subscribe
0:51to the channel if you have not done that
0:52yet. of course trying to get to the 50k
0:54subscribers. So we do appreciate when
0:55you guys click that subscribe button
0:56there. Most importantly, just like the
0:58video and look guys, don't forget, you
1:00know, we always tell you guys YouTube
1:01does reward the watch time now. So for
1:03all you guys that do take the time to
1:04watch these videos in full, and look, we
1:06know you all cannot do that. So we're
1:08understanding of that. But for the ones
1:09that do take the time to watch these
1:10videos in full without skipping, and for
1:11you guys that share these with your
1:12friends and hype them up each and every
1:13day, thank you guys so much. It's so
1:15important to our community, so important
1:16to our business, and allows us to keep
1:18bringing you guys more free value here
1:19uh on in the YouTube space. So we
1:21appreciate that. As always, don't forget
1:23if you guys appreciate what we're doing
1:24here for for you guys, just like the
1:25video. That's all we ask. We don't need
1:26any other other kind of tip rather than
1:27besides liking the video. When you like
1:29our videos, it is literally like adding
1:30to our tip jar. Let's not forget today
1:32is Sunday, so we're going to set a like
1:34goal of 750. If you guys hit 750 likes
1:36on today's video, you're going to
1:38receive an additional VIP play sent out
1:40at no cost. And that play is going to be
1:42for the night game. We've got a great
1:43Sunday night game. Uh it's on the
1:45Sleeper app, so you guys want to
1:46download that. We'll show you all that
1:47in a minute. Don't worry. But for now,
1:48just remember, click the like button.
1:50You guys are going to want to work
1:51together today on Sunday. You're going
1:52to want to hit 750 likes. And if you
1:55guys get 900, I may be able to send you
1:58guys something else for that game. We'll
2:00see what if you get there. But for now,
2:01keep the like goal at 750. Let's see
2:03what you guys can do. We're going to
2:04start things off with going over the
2:05contest winners for yesterday's video.
2:07We told you guys in yesterday in every
2:08video rather, like the video, subscribe
2:09to the channel, and comment below for a
2:11chance to win a free week of VIP. We
2:13take all those comments, we dropped them
2:14right over here into the YouTube random
2:15comment picker. We told you yesterday
2:17we're going to do three people on this
2:18drawing because you missed yesterday's
2:19video. With that said, yesterday's MLB
2:22video, 114 comments, and these two
2:24individuals here were randomly selected
2:26to win that one free VIP. Give me one
2:28second here, guys.
2:30We have Diego for MA says in the green.
2:33We have Jesus Mansila 5875 says, "Let's
2:36hit the like goal." And we have Aake the
2:38Dream 96. So, let's start the weekend
2:40off with a banger, which we absolutely
2:42did. Now, with that said, I believe
2:44Jesus and Aake have either been paid
2:46players or are paid players. You guys
2:48already know you can either keep this or
2:49gift it to somebody else. Uh, if you
2:50guys are not, either way, the rest of
2:52you three here, if you don't mind, take
2:53a second, email support
2:54atinthegreendfs.com.
2:56We will need a screenshot of your
2:57YouTube username, your first and last
2:59name, and of course, we now require you
3:01guys to sign up for one of the apps in
3:02the link of the description. Once you
3:04sign up, make sure it's the first time
3:05signing up. Go to the transaction tab,
3:06take a screenshot showing your first
3:08deposit with our code, and we will get
3:09you guys set up with that one free week
3:10of VIP. Please remember, you guys have
3:12to have these emails in within 48 hours
3:14or less. Anything past that is not going
3:15to be qualified any longer. We are just
3:17so busy over here. So, we appreciate you
3:18guys working with us on that. Congrats
3:20to you guys again on winning the one
3:21free VIP. And don't forget, you guys
3:23have a chance to uh win that in every
3:24single video. We give two of those away
3:26in every video and we're going to
3:27continue doing that to give back to our
3:28community. We know a lot of people here
3:29are paid players already. We get that
3:30and we love you guys. You guys are what
3:32makes this whole thing run. We want to
3:33make sure our free plan players that
3:34don't have the ability to buy this paid
3:36stuff have a chance to at least win it
3:37here and there uh by us giving back with
3:39that contest. Now, one second here,
3:41guys.
3:44All right. Before I go into any kind of
3:45recaps or into today's plays, I want to
3:46be very clear about something. If you
3:47guys don't know this already, not only
3:49do you have three free plays in this
3:51video, we already gave you an early
3:53value video. You'll find a couple days
3:54ago posted on our on our YouTube here
3:56that gives you two additional plays. So,
3:58we are literally giving you guys five
4:00complete free plays. And when I say free
4:02plays, let me be clear. This is not what
4:04people do in other places in this
4:05industry where they give you a single
4:06play like Roman Wilson over 20.5 yards.
4:08We're giving you built out actual plays
4:10as you see right here. Uh we do this in
4:12a very different way than a lot of
4:13people in this space. I think you guys
4:14will appreciate that. But don't forget
4:16to check that other video. There are two
4:18excellent plays over there. You're going
4:20to want to play those as well. So check
4:21that video, take a look and get that
4:22information from that one. In this
4:24video, of course, when you get to 750
4:26likes, everyone on the winnable free
4:27plan, which don't worry, I will go over
4:28the plans here shortly. Everyone will
4:29receive an additional VIP play sent out
4:31at no cost. So if you haven't done it
4:32yet, like the video. All right, quick
4:34heads up. This is going to be the last
4:35th this is not the recap for yesterday.
4:37This is a recap for Thursday. We already
4:38did the recap, so I want to show you
4:39guys our last football slate. We had did
4:41$7,000 of wins. Pretty good there. But
4:43if you guys are new here, quick heads
4:44up. We've had an absolutely fantastic
4:46year. September, we finished $117,000 in
4:48wins. Uh last uh 21 days alone, $110,000
4:52in cash outs. Not not all profit, but
4:54the majority absolutely is. We've been
4:56absolutely crushing it this entire year.
4:58I think we've lost one or two months the
5:00entire year. We are way up on the
5:01season, way up on every single sport.
5:03And it's October. We're literally two
5:05days into October because remember we
5:06didn't have any sports in the second.
5:07Two days in, we're already in almost
5:08$10,000 in cash outs in October. It's
5:11been a lot of fun. Now, let's get things
5:12moving over here to the Sunday slate.
5:14Oh, my bad, guys. I forgot to show you
5:15the Wait, where'd I put this? Hold on,
5:18guys. My apology. This was the Saturday
5:19recap. My apologies. We cashed this free
5:21play for you guys. Congrats to all the
5:22free plan players that jumped on board.
5:24That was about the most sweat-free free
5:25play as of all time. Tyreek School did
5:28pretty much what I thought he was going
5:28to do until late. He got capped a couple
5:30times, but he went right through that
5:31seven strikeouts. No problem for us.
5:33Drew Rasmmanson absolutely dominant. He
5:35played way better than Tyreek School. He
5:37was phenomenal. I forgot he finished
5:38with 10 strikeouts. Uh I think he had 21
5:41outs or something. Drew was just
5:42phenomenal. So this was a very easy win
5:44for the free plan players. 3.34x
5:46multiplier the plus 32334. We turned 300
5:49into $1,02 on this one here. Congrats to
5:51all of our free plan players. I'm so
5:52glad you guys caught this one with us.
5:54Give you guys some extra funds moving
5:55into the Sunday slate. Paid players, we
5:57did their outs on this one here. We
5:58caught another 822 here and we had a
6:00Jackson Cheerio home run for 591. This
6:03game still going. There's We have
6:04another couple plays out there that
6:05could win as well. But for now, 2500 on
6:07the Saturday slate. We bet very light on
6:08that one. And we are very excited to get
6:10you guys into the Sunday slate. We've
6:12got some bangers here for you today. Now
6:14remember, we're breaking this down.
6:15We're going to give you one play for the
6:161 p.m. slate of games. Then we're giving
6:17you a second play for the 4pm slate of
6:20games. And then we're going to give you
6:22guys There we are. Then we're going to
6:23give you guys uh the touchdown anytime
6:25touchdown play. And then of course, if
6:26you get the like goal, we'll have a
6:28beautiful uh VIP free VI VIP play being
6:31sent out for free to you guys for the
6:32night game, which should be a lot of fun
6:33as well. All right, we get some water.
6:35Let's break right into play number one.
6:39Also, if you guys are new here, you
6:40should know this by now, but if you
6:41don't, this is sports betting. There are
6:43absolutely no guarantees of sports
6:44betting. I know you see us. We are
6:46crushing it. We've made a lot of money
6:47here. Our players are very happy. All of
6:49our paid players are extremely happy.
6:50But remember, this is still sports
6:52betting. Please bet responsibly. Only
6:54play money you're able to play with. Be
6:56smart with this stuff. As always, if you
6:58love the play, feel free to copy it. If
7:00you hate the play, feel free to fade it.
7:02Remember guys, you can take what you
7:03like, leave what you don't. You're never
7:04going to hurt our feelings if you don't
7:05take the exact play. I promise you.
7:06Totally fine. All right, play number
7:08one. We have a 4.74x multiplier, which
7:12of course is the plus 374. So, a 4.74x
7:15multiplier. We're going 300 to win 1422
7:18on this one. At the end, this is for the
7:191 p.m. slate of games. Let's start
7:21things off with play number one. We're
7:22taking M. Collins over 39.5
7:26receiving yards. Now,
7:29the Patriots, they'll be traveling to
7:30take on the Bills at 1:00 p.m. Eastern
7:32Standard Time. The point total in this
7:34game is 49.5. So, it's a pretty high
7:37one. Um, don't forget, guys, is this the
7:40Patriots are seven-point underdog, so
7:41keep that in mind. Holland here has gone
7:42over this line in two of his last three
7:44games this season. Also handled this
7:45line pretty easily when he played these
7:47Bills last year. Now, with AJ Brown out,
7:49we know Mac uh M. Collins here has
7:51emerged as the current number one target
7:53for Drake May just by target share
7:55alone. I'll show you guys that in a
7:56minute. And look, Buffalo allows the
7:57second most wide receiver yards per
7:58game. There's probably a reason for
7:59that. We think the Patriots be playing
8:01from behind in this game as probably
8:02most of you do as well. And Matt Collins
8:04is a big body target that Drake May will
8:06continue to find over the middle on the
8:07outside. He looks for him all over the
8:08place. He lines them up all over the
8:10place. I don't think the Bills have
8:10anyone that can really slow him down in
8:12terms of getting those receiving yards.
8:13Plus, let's not forget this should be a
8:15pretty ugly lopsided game for the Bills.
8:17Now, let's go over here to the props
8:18madness research tool. If you guys are
8:20new here, this is a research tool. Helps
8:22you research your own picks and plays.
8:24It is a tool that costs I don't know
8:25what the the total price is now, 25
8:27bucks a month, 24 bucks a month. We give
8:28a 25% off discount if you check it out
8:30in the link in the description. I'll be
8:31very blunt with you guys. This is not a
8:32magic tool, not a magic wand. It's very
8:34good for research purposes, but it is
8:36just for that research purpose. If
8:38you're a paid player, you don't need
8:39this. We do all this plus a lot more on
8:41the back end for you guys. We literally
8:42watch film here, something that most
8:43channels have no time to do. We do it
8:45all day every day, which is why, of
8:46course, we're so good at this. Now, with
8:47that said, let's get to plan number one
8:49here. First things first, Matt Collins,
8:50his normal line, let me show you guys,
8:51his normal line is 43.5 today, but all
8:55three of these lines in the first play,
8:56only the first play, we've tapered down
8:58just a little bit. So, we took Matt
8:59Collins at a 43.5 line, he's got a 53.1
9:02implied odds to go over. We're going to
9:04drop him down to 39.5, whereas implied
9:06odds now go to 58.3. But here's the
9:09important part of this play. Okay, first
9:10off, we're going up against a Bills team
9:13that allows the sixth most receiving
9:14yards uh to the wide receiver position.
9:17And I want to point something out here.
9:18A big part of this is we are expecting
9:21the Bills to lead this game. They're at
9:23home. They should run over the Patriots.
9:24We've already established in the last
9:26couple games. We told you guys we no
9:27longer believe in the Patriots. I think
9:28they're very faulty. Uh very, very fake.
9:31They're not who we thought they were
9:32going to be. I don't think they're going
9:34to have a lot of opportunity this game
9:35to win the game. But these AFC East
9:37rivals, these AFC East divisional
9:40battles, they they seem to go a little
9:41lopsided sometimes. And you'll see, you
9:43know, even the Bills facing the
9:44Dolphins. The Dolphins will get up a
9:45touchdown early before the Bills take
9:46over. And you get this game with the
9:48Patriots and they do it all the time.
9:49Patriots get up on the Bills all the
9:50time. So don't put that past you any
9:52kind of weirdness. But I do believe I'm
9:54very very confident here. The Bills in
9:55their new stadium should step on these
9:57guys which should leave the Drake May
9:59and Matt Collins here to be playing some
10:01some some pass here uh late in the game
10:03to try to get some yards. And I like the
10:04opportunity there with the Bills who
10:05play a lot of this too high safety, a
10:07lot of prevent defense later in the
10:08game. Should be really really good here
10:09for Matt Collins. Now dropping 39.5. He
10:12should go over here. Went over against
10:13these guys last time he played them.
10:15Opponent A6. They're rank six there. So,
10:17they're not really good anywhere
10:18honestly when it comes to against
10:19receivers. Opponent targets, they target
10:21the receivers at the second highest
10:22rate. Uh very, very high defensive
10:25against man. They're ranked 22nd. Uh and
10:27then also I want to show you something
10:28else here. Why is it not scrolling? Here
10:29we go. Uh so, a couple things here about
10:31the Buffalo Bills. They're going to play
10:33a lot of zone defense. Uh but they do
10:34mix in some man coverage. So, I want to
10:36point that out. You'll notice um you
10:37know, their their rank in in zone is is
10:4015th whereas 22nd for man. They're going
10:42to move this around a lot and Matt
10:44Collins is going to be good against man
10:46Orzone. He's a big body target. He'll
10:47get up over the top people. Routes run.
10:49This is an important one. 23.7% 59th
10:51percentile in the league. Bills ranked
10:5229th out of 32nd to that one there. A
10:55dot 20 point.1 12.1 sorry 61st
10:59percentile in the read. Now I in the
11:01league. I like this a lot for him
11:02because you got to figure if he's
11:04getting 12 or 15 12 yards a catch even,
11:07he goes over this line if he gets four
11:08receptions. Reception line is 3.5 I
11:10believe in this game. and we're taking
11:11for the yards, but we want the 39.5. And
11:14keep in mind, this is a game I think we
11:16get a lot of additional passing lanes
11:17late uh in a blowout scenario. Now,
11:19you'll see here out wide, the Bills get
11:21targeted quite a bit. Mac out there
11:22plenty. You'll see Mac on the outside
11:23quite a bit going down the sideline and
11:25they get beat up pretty good out there.
11:27Also, look at the last receivers that
11:29played these guys. Three of the last
11:30fours went over against the Bills. The
11:31only one that did not was uh Jameson
11:34Wills Williams there, which of course he
11:35was just barely under, I believe, if
11:37that was correct. So, but going down
11:38here, there's an important part here,
11:39guys. Matt Collins currently has the
11:42lead target share on this team at 19.5.
11:44I know it's crazy, but part of that's
11:45because your guy down here, AJ Brown,
11:47got injured obviously that first game.
11:49Demo Douglas with 14. Uh Romeo Dobs 11.
11:52Hasn't quite been what we expect him to
11:54be. Uh and of course your running backs
11:55and tight ends there. But either way,
11:56Matt Collins has kind of been the guy
11:57he's been looking at. Now, the other
11:59part of this I think is interesting is
12:00red zone target share. Matt Collins has
12:0244.4% of the red zone looks. Why is
12:05that? I told you guys, big body target,
12:07able to get up over the top, people, box
12:08people out. He's very good when it comes
12:10to that. Also, let's look over here.
12:11First read targets, another critical one
12:13for this type of play. Now, Drake May,
12:15not not your guy that's going to be
12:17looking to sling all game long, but
12:18there's going to be some running and
12:19when they slow that running down, or
12:20more importantly, when they get down in
12:22the game, you got to sling the rock. You
12:23got to throw the ball. Well, first read
12:25targets 30.3%. He is first. He's the
12:28first read target that gets the most
12:29attention first on this team. That is a
12:31good sign for Matt Collins in this spot.
12:33Now,
12:35I'm not worried about the Bills de uh
12:37defensive backs. I'm not worried about
12:38the Bills safeties. This whole play is
12:41essentially predicated on the Bills
12:43getting up in this game and Matt Collins
12:46and the Patriots having to play from
12:48behind. They've done that in plenty of
12:49games. You see right here, they got
12:50absolutely annihilated in this game. And
12:52look at this. 6 for9 87 yards. And
12:55that's going to be a lot of that garbage
12:56time when they were getting annihilated.
12:58That's what we like about this play.
12:58It's a very similar situation here
13:00except the Bills should beat them worse
13:02than the than the Jaguars whooped them.
13:03And and that's, you know, we'll see. But
13:06look, I love this play for play number
13:07one. Matt Collins over 39.5 receiving
13:09yards played one. You can take the
13:10reception if you want, but we are
13:11playing the receiving yards for a
13:13reason. Remember, we dropped it from
13:1443.5 down to 39.5
13:17uh for this play. Now, play number two.
13:19We'll take it to another game here. We
13:21just talked about a minute ago. We're
13:22going Parker Washington over 69.5
13:24receiving yards. Don't forget Parker's
13:26line, I think, is at 76 or 78, something
13:28like that. We're taking him down to 69.5
13:30for this game. The Jaguars will travel
13:32on the Bengals at 1 p.m. Eastern
13:34Standard Time as well. Point total in
13:36this game is 51.5. And the Jaguars are
13:38two and a half point underdogs. Now,
13:40Parker has gone over this line in two of
13:41his three games this season, only
13:43missing last week in that massive
13:45blowout where he simply wasn't needed
13:46versus the Patriots I talked about a
13:48minute ago. Now, he also cleared this
13:51line last season when he played these
13:52Bengals. So, that's nice to know. And
13:53the Bengals were playing the fourth most
13:54man in the NFL, but that could change
13:56here with that. This is why we're taking
13:58the receiving yards versus the
13:59receptions for Parker Washington here
14:01for play number two. Now, let me show
14:02you the props bad research tool. Again,
14:04the links in the description if you want
14:04to check that out. First three games you
14:06see against the Browns, he had he was 5
14:08for six, 83 yards. Against the Broncos,
14:107 for12 with 98 yards and against the
14:13Patriots, 3 for 55, 40 yards. And the
14:14only reason he did not go over this
14:16line, guys, let me be very, very clear
14:18here cuz it was like a 45 to3 or 38 to
14:21three-point game. It was complete
14:22blowout. They stopped needing to pass
14:24like after the second quarter. So, I
14:26love the spot here today for Parker
14:28Washington. Another read that wouldn't
14:29be bad on this game would probably be
14:30Jacobe Meer just because of the defense
14:31you're gonna see. But I just have to
14:32take Parker Washington who is the
14:34clearing away number one on this team.
14:35Like I told you guys in the beginning of
14:36the season we used his play. Uh Parker's
14:38really going to get zone and man. So I'm
14:40not really concerned about who he's
14:41playing against here. He's done pretty
14:42well in terms of uh yards per route run
14:44in each of those spots. But look at this
14:47routes run. Parker's at 25.3 routes run
14:50per game at 63rd percentile in the
14:52league. Bengals 30th to 32 in that
14:53position. Adot another big one here.
14:55Parker Washington 14.3. I like that a
14:57lot. You give the 14.3 on the A dot
14:59here. Bengals aren't really good in that
15:00spot. And uh yards, let's see, yards per
15:03reception 14.7. It's the A dot, right?
15:05No, 14.3. Yards perception is 14.7. Uh
15:08should work out pretty well here as
15:09well. But most importantly, guys, let's
15:11not forget the critical pieces of this
15:12play. Parker Washington, oh by the way,
15:14before you look at this, just take a
15:15look at these receivers here before you
15:17get too overwhelmed by the look here.
15:19Mechamuka and Chris Godwin obviously
15:21secondary receiver on the team. DK
15:22Mechaf wasn't really having a good game
15:24that game. Had 31 yards. uh did a little
15:26better the other night. But look here.
15:28Okay, so this is going to be the spots
15:30in which um Parker should be able to
15:33attack these guys here. Now, I want to
15:35show you real here. Look at the slot.
15:37Super super uh getable in the slot here.
15:3943% of the target and they're getting
15:40ripped up in the slot. The thing you
15:42need to keep in mind here, guys, just so
15:44you so you don't forget, this is going
15:45to be probably the shootout of the game
15:47of the day. Parker Washington lines up
15:49all over the field. I love that about
15:51this guy, he's not a wide out, he's not
15:52a slot receiver. Plays all over the
15:54place. They move him wherever they want.
15:55And typically that helps us not have to
15:57deal with any kind of um any kind of
15:59shaded coverage or any kind of uh
16:01situation where a certain player will
16:03will lock him down the entire the entire
16:05game. I don't think we're going to see
16:06that today. We're going to have him kind
16:07of moving around all over the place,
16:08which is what they like to do with him.
16:10And then you look at the target share,
16:11the target share against these guys. I
16:12mean, off of this team, Parker
16:14Washington, 30.3% target share. That
16:16doubles the next best player essentially
16:18in Brian Thomas Jr. who I do not like.
16:19I've mentioned that before in other
16:20videos. Again, if you could take anyone
16:22from this team, go Parker first. And I
16:23would go Jacobe second. I just would not
16:25mess with Brian Thomas. I'm just not a
16:26big fan of this guy. Uh but again, red
16:28zone targets, 30 23.1% of the targets
16:30are going to him in the red zone. First
16:33read targets, take a look at this. First
16:35read targets on this team, 44.7%.
16:39That is insane. That means he's looking
16:41at his number one receiver and he's
16:42throwing the ball to his number one
16:43receiver. He's making it happen quickly,
16:46consistently, and he is literally 44.7%
16:49of the first read targets is pretty
16:50incredible. Uh, couple that with the
16:52fact that this guy's caught plenty of
16:53passes on the season and got a good spot
16:55here today to have to have a have a
16:57little bit of a back and forth game.
16:58Now, we dropped him from, let's see his
16:59normal line here. 75.5 is his normal
17:01line. You'll see that up to 78 on some
17:03apps. We're dropping him down to 60 75.
17:05You going to see he's got a 53.1%
17:07implied odds to go over. We're taking
17:08him down to 69.5 for this play. And
17:10we're only adjusting the lines in this
17:11first play, by the way, not the
17:12afternoon play or or anything else. But
17:1459% uh odds imply to go over. I like
17:16that quite a bit better. Again, the
17:18kicker here for playing against a
17:19Bengals team at home is going to put up
17:21a lot of points here. I think I think we
17:23have a shootout today. This should be
17:24the shootout game of the day or at least
17:25one of the two or three best shootout
17:26games of the day. I think we get plenty
17:28of opportunity for Parker Washington. I
17:30hope they play from behind, but it
17:32really doesn't matter, I don't think, in
17:33this one. I think Parker's going to be
17:34in plenty involved in this game. Should
17:36be no issue here. So, give me Parker
17:38Washington play number two over on the
17:39adjusted 69.5 player receiving yards.
17:42Now,
17:45remember this plays on Onyx, guys. I'll
17:46teach you how to get an Onyx in one
17:47second. Bear with me. Play number three.
17:49We're going to a play that is probably
17:50the most chalky play of the entire day.
17:51And guys, I spent hours trying to get
17:53around this. And I've decided after all
17:56my research, it makes more sense to play
17:58this play and take a loss than to not
18:00play this play and have him hit. So,
18:01we're going to go with Derrick Henry
18:03over 89.5 rushing yards. Now, let me
18:05point out Derrick Henry and Eric Henry's
18:06line is now at 97.8 or.5 or 98.5. I'm
18:11going to drop it to to 89.5 for this
18:13play. Okay? I did it for a reason. I'll
18:14get to that in a second. The Titans will
18:16travel to take on the Ravens at 1 p.m.
18:17Eastern Standard Time. Point total here,
18:1942.5. And the Titans are 11.5
18:24point underdog. That's extreme. Now,
18:25Henry's gone over this line in one of
18:26his two games this season. Yes, only one
18:28of his three rather. And this, of
18:29course, is the first time Derrick Henry
18:31will face his old team. We expect this
18:32to be one in some pretty rough weather
18:34here as well, which should work pretty
18:36well in Derrick Henry's favor. Yes, he's
18:38facing his old team here today in the
18:39Titans. Do not forget that's their
18:41narrative everyone should probably be
18:42talking about. I'm assuming every video
18:43you watch probably has Derrick Henry in
18:45it. And I understand guys, look, we're
18:47going to go to let's go to rushing
18:48yards. He's at 97.5 now across the
18:51board. 98 at some places. That's a 53.1%
18:54implied odds to go over. We are taking
18:55him down to 89.5. And I'm I'm very
18:58steadfast on keeping this 89.5. I've
19:00seen this happen too much. I can see him
19:02finish at 91 92. Put a put a backup in.
19:04They blow these guys out. I want the 90
19:07yards. I don't want to go for the 99 or
19:08the 100. Can he get 100 yards in this
19:10game? He can get 160 in this game, guys.
19:12He can dominate this game. But I'm
19:13feeling comfortable by keeping this at
19:14the 89.5. If you're a paid player, NFL
19:17full season pass or VIP player, don't
19:19worry. We'll have some different
19:20variations of Derrick Henry as well. But
19:22for this play with a 61.2% odds implying
19:25to go over here, I I just can't pass on
19:26this. When I look at what we're looking
19:28up here, we're looking at a team that is
19:30very poor uh to a rushing attack. They
19:32rank six worst in the NFL to the rushing
19:33attack. Uh they give up the second most
19:35rush attempts in the league and their
19:37pressure rate is very very very rough
19:39here as well which means Derrick County
19:40should run right through these guys. Now
19:42we got some rain here today. 63 degrees.
19:44Uh we've got some temperatures that look
19:46to be about 38% rain depending on how
19:48this breaks down. A little bit more
19:49early in the game by the time the
19:50kickoff starts at 1. 38% rain. I expect
19:53there to be some rain in this one.
19:54Probably some some ugly field
19:55conditions. Should mean more handing the
19:57ball off to Derrick Henry. But most
19:58importantly, I think we all know I think
20:01guy these these guys want to get the
20:02ball to Dererick Henry. And I want I
20:03want think they want Derrick Henry uh to
20:05have a chance to really have almost a
20:07legacy game here against his old team.
20:08Look guys, this is probably Derrick
20:10Henry is probably the most bet prop. Uh
20:13and I I didn't put him on the touchdown
20:14play. I I couldn't even do that to you
20:16guys. You should already know you can
20:17bet him for a touchdown today or two if
20:18you want. I left him off that touchdown
20:20play, so I don't think he's part of that
20:21play. He's not. Uh but look, Derrick
20:23Henry is probably the most bet play on
20:26the slate. But this is one of those rare
20:28days when you look at it and you go,
20:29man, like for instance, if you're
20:30playing DraftKings, you look at that and
20:32you go, man, you're building a lineup.
20:34How do I not put Derrick Henry? This guy
20:36could quite literally explode for 30 40
20:38DraftKing points. And the reason is
20:39because not only is this old team, I
20:41don't think these guys have any ability
20:42to stay with these guys on offense. I
20:44think it's going to be really quite
20:45quite quite simply a blowout. And more
20:47than anything, these guys are really bad
20:49on the ground when it comes to stopping
20:50the rush. And you can't stop Derrick
20:51Henry if you don't have a good run stop.
20:53So, this one feels pretty easy to me. uh
20:55rush attempts on the season. Just so you
20:56know, he's got uh this one here is the
20:58one against the Saints where they got
20:59beat up at the end. But 24 and 26 in
21:01those winning games there. To me, this
21:03just feels too easy. I I feel like look,
21:07I'd love to be the only one out here in
21:08on YouTube saying, "Guys, we're not
21:10going to take Derrick Henry today."
21:11First off, no one should be fading him.
21:12If you don't want to play him, that's
21:12fine, but you shouldn't be taking his
21:13under. That'd be ridiculous. And I'm not
21:15going to be that guy today. I've got to
21:16stick with the fact that Derrick Henry
21:18is the best play on the slate for the
21:20most part here. Probably the top one or
21:21two plays in the entire slate. And
21:23because of that, I would rather us go
21:25down swinging and lose the play because
21:27he he finishes at 84 or some [ __ ] in a
21:29blowout than us not play Derrick Henry.
21:31So, we had to add him to the play. If
21:32you're not comfortable with it, feel
21:33free to take him off. Should be an easy
21:34one here today for Derrick Henry. Give
21:35me Derrick Henry over on the 89.5
21:38rushing yards. Remember guys, we do not
21:40want the 97.5. We want the 89.5 for a
21:42reason. Something about those eight or
21:45nine yards feels like that could totally
21:46hook some people and I want to stay away
21:48from that range and get them over the
21:4989. So, one more time.
21:53Sorry for point number one. We got a
21:55four. Let's see here. 4.74x multiplier.
21:58I'm going 300 twin 1422. We're taking
22:00Matt Collins over 39.5 adjusted
22:03receiving yards. We're taking Parker
22:04Washington over 69.5 adjusted receiving
22:07yards. We're taking Derrick Henry over
22:0989.5 adjusted rushing yards. When I say
22:11adjusted, just means that took the
22:12normal line. I dropped it down just a
22:14bit here for play number one. Love this
22:15play. It's a 4.74x. Makes me feel very
22:17comfortable for the open slate. We've
22:19had a lot of weird things where the 1pm
22:21slate goes end and we dominate in the
22:224pm and night game. We've been winning a
22:24lot. We've won every week in football.
22:25It's been great so far. So, hopefully
22:27that keeps up. It's not usually that hot
22:28that early, so we're really happy about
22:30that. That's play number one for you
22:31guys. Before I show you play number two,
22:33I got to show you something very
22:34important. So, follow me here. I'm going
22:35to show you guys the promos. If you are
22:36new here, you want to pay attention for
22:38a second. I'll do this very quick today
22:39cuz I know it's Sunday and you guys have
22:40less time when you get up to watch
22:42before these games start. So, first
22:43things first, easy to figure this out.
22:46If you guys want to support our channel,
22:48like the video. That's it. Just like the
22:49video. If you want to support our
22:50channel either further and you need
22:51these apps, go ahead and click these
22:52links. They're in the link in the
22:54description there. When you go to the
22:54description of our video you're watching
22:56right now, you'll find all these links
22:57down there. And when you click the
22:58links, it'll autopop populate our code
23:00for it for you guys. That way, it's very
23:01simple. Now, quick heads up. If you're
23:03new to sports betting or if you're new
23:04to this thing and you're playing on one
23:06app, let me be the one to tell you
23:08before everyone else does. You are doing
23:09this incorrectly. Playing on one app is
23:11a very bad idea. It is a surefire way to
23:13lose over time. I know it sounds crazy,
23:15but it is true. You do not want to play
23:16on one app unless you have no choice
23:18because of where you live. I strongly
23:20suggest getting multiple apps and
23:21playing these apps against each other.
23:22We shop the market for our players
23:24automatically. You guys don't have to do
23:25that. All of our paid players know we
23:26shop the market every day for you guys.
23:27So, we take care of all that. Free plan
23:29players, we typically are giving you the
23:30best spot. Today is the best. The best
23:32plays are by far in Onyx today, which is
23:34why I put them all on. So, when that
23:36happens, we're going to show you and
23:36we're going to explain that to you guys.
23:37But if you want to support the channel
23:39or if you just want some promo money,
23:40there's a lot of promo money over here.
23:42Click those links. Let's get you locked
23:43in. I'm going to go over these very
23:44quickly. the first four of the most
23:45important apps for us. Sleeper, we have
23:46a we have a play, a VIP play on Sleeper,
23:49almost done. It'll be sent out if you
23:50guys reach 750 likes. So, you better get
23:52to 750 today. You're going to want that
23:53for the night game. It's going to be a
23:54fun game. And of course, it's going to
23:56be on the Sleeper app. So, make sure you
23:57download Sleeper. 100% match on Sleeper.
23:59Chalkboard is another play, another one
24:00used a lot here. Match up to 500 plus a
24:02free pick on Chalkboard. Onyx, one of
24:04the best apps right now, one of the best
24:05payouts, the best promo. You play 10,
24:07you get 111 in bonus picks over there on
24:09Onyx, which is a great way to play our
24:10free plays or or tag along with our with
24:13our plays. But again, download Onyx, use
24:14code in the green. The links are all in
24:16the description. Play 10, get 111 there.
24:18Lastly is Koshi. Guys, we are going to
24:19be doing some fun stuff on Koshi. Koshi
24:22has solved a lot of problems. If you
24:23guys are in those states that don't
24:24allow single bets, California, New
24:26Jersey, New York, um, Georgia, Texas,
24:29those few states left that don't allow
24:30the single bets, Koshi is now your
24:32answer. You can get around all that
24:33stuff by using the KI app. It is
24:34phenomenal. Code is in the green.
24:36Special here is really nice, too. The
24:37promo is great. In fact, you should all
24:38probably download it and try for this.
24:40You trade 25 bucks on Kouchy once you
24:42use our code. Got to use our code for
24:43this to be active. Use code in the green
24:45or cut the link down there. Trade 25
24:47bucks on Cowi once you sign up. Once
24:49that settles, they're going to give you
24:50a bonus of up to $2,000 in your account.
24:52Completely random. We've had three or
24:54four people now say they've gotten 500.
24:55No one's told us they've gotten a,000,
24:5715, or 2,000 yet. So, if you do, drop a
24:59comment, let us know. All right. By the
25:01way, the rest of these promos here can
25:03be found in the link of the description.
25:04Just go scroll down there, find all
25:05these down there. Splash, underdog,
25:07better, rebet, and prizes. We got all
25:08those links down there for you guys
25:09below. Again, take advantage of these
25:11promos. If you not have $20,000 in your
25:13bankroll, if I'm I'm I'm talking to you.
25:15Yes. If you don't have $20,000 in your
25:17bankroll right now to bet with, you
25:19should already have downloaded the
25:20majority of these apps. You got to take
25:21advantage of these things by getting
25:22ahead with these profit match with these
25:24deposit matches, these bonus bets, all
25:26these stuff is is a big very very
25:28important part of sports betting when
25:29you're trying to build a bankroll. All
25:30right, we showed you play number one.
25:31Let's get you guys right into play
25:32number two. I'm not going to show you
25:33all these wins because there's been a
25:34hell of a lot of them. We've had a lot
25:35of fun over here. If you are not a paid
25:37player yet, this is your final chance to
25:38jump on the paid plans. We'll go over
25:40those after play number two. I do
25:42suggest you stick around for that. If
25:43you haven't figured out by now, our paid
25:44players are having a lot of fun over
25:46here because we are winning a lot of
25:47money. Now, we cannot guarantee win. So,
25:49if you come over here and see us having
25:50a dominating streak, please understand,
25:52we can't guarantee it's going to happen
25:54every day. We'll never be able to do
25:55that for you guys. We'd be dishonest if
25:56we were doing that for you guys.
25:57Instead, what's that? That's our $13,000
26:00day. I got to stop by that one. Uh if we
26:02were being dishonest with you guys, we'd
26:03tell you we're going to win every day.
26:04It's not going to happen here in sports
26:05betting, especially with the way we do
26:06things. But our play style allows us to
26:08win a ton of money in a short period of
26:09time. Which leads me to tell you guys,
26:11don't forget, guys, do not forget. Okay,
26:13quick heads up on this one. Very
26:15important while I get you to play number
26:16two here. My bad. Okay, that was play
26:18number one. Now we're going to play
26:19number two right here. Now, quick heads
26:20up. Want you guys to know what's going
26:22on here before I get you to play number
26:23two here. Where we at? Okay,
26:26remember if you if you're kind of
26:27skipping through this thing, there's
26:28another video with two more free plays.
26:30Go watch it. You can like it as well.
26:31You guys probably won't hit the like
26:32goal on that one. Make sure you watch
26:34that video and get those pre-plays as
26:35well because that might be my favorite
26:36play of the day over there on that other
26:37video. I think my favorite play of the
26:38day might be over there. So, all right,
26:40play number two. Going to the 4pm slate
26:42of games. You got four of them here
26:43today. Should be a nice little afternoon
26:44slate. I like I like attacking these
26:46afternoon slates. We've had some very
26:48good success on the afternoon evening
26:49slate specifically if you ask the paid
26:51players. We typically last three Sundays
26:53we started kind of down not down but
26:55like either either even or down in the
26:561pm slate of games and just straight
26:58dominated the afternoon evening. It it
27:00seemed to be a trend here. I'm not sure
27:01why we don't like it, but it is what it
27:02is because, well, we continue to win, so
27:04we're definitely liking it. With that
27:05said, we won a lot of money here, guys.
27:06If you are not a paid player yet, we'll
27:08show you that. But don't worry, there's
27:09always free plays. With that said, here
27:11comes free play number two. 5.07x
27:13multiplier going 300 to win 1521 on the
27:16Onyx app. Again, you want to play this
27:18on Onyx. The payout is considerably
27:20better, guys. We're talking 5.07x
27:21multiplier here. You're not getting much
27:23more than a four 4.3 or 4.4 everywhere
27:25else. So, you got to be on this app for
27:26this play. All right, let's get into it.
27:28Play number one. We're taking Christian
27:30McCaffrey over 39.5 receiving yards.
27:32Yes, we're dropping. No, we're not
27:33dropping down. We're keeping his normal
27:34line at 39.5. Now,
27:38let's get into this one. All right, the
27:41Broncos, we travel to take on the 49ers
27:43at 4:25 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
27:47Point total this game 47.5 and the
27:49Broncos are 2.5 point dogs. Now, CMC has
27:52gone over this line in two of his last
27:53three games this season. Uh Mike Evans
27:56is questionable for this one. I'm not
27:56sure if he's going to play or not, but I
27:57don't think it's going to matter because
27:58the Broncos have been highly susceptible
28:00to receiving yards from the back from
28:02the running backs there out of the back
28:03field. And when Brock Purie, I'm rather
28:05with the Broncos pressure Brock Py, we
28:07expect plenty of dump downs to CMC. Let
28:09me show you Christian McCaffrey over
28:10here on the props madness research tool
28:12so you can see what we're seeing here
28:13tonight. So, first things first, first
28:14three games against the Rams there, they
28:17did a number on those guys, but Chris
28:18McCaffrey didn't have to run much. Did
28:19not go over the line, had 20 receiving
28:21yard, I mean receive much. Game two
28:23against the Dolphins, also similar
28:25situation. They wor they worked them as
28:26well, but Christian McCaffrey still got
28:27four four receptions on four targets for
28:2943 receiving yards. Game three here was
28:32against the Cardinals. Four out of five
28:34targets were caught here for 41
28:36receiving yards. But here is where
28:38things get juicy. So, first things
28:39first, we're leaving his line at the
28:40normal line. If you want to drop it, you
28:41can, but I want it right where it's at.
28:43Let's talk about this. First things
28:44first, the Broncos are giving up the
28:46second most receiving yards, two running
28:49backs in football. Yes, the Broncos.
28:51Part of that's because of their pass
28:52rush and because their DBs on the back
28:54end, right? Look, with Mike Evans, he
28:57says probable here. I still have him as
28:58a game time decision, so I'm not sure if
28:59he's going to play or not. I don't think
29:00it matters for this play because of who
29:02the defense is and how they're going to
29:03cover these guys. They're going to have
29:05to target the running back here, guys.
29:06Uh yards per reception, opponent yards
29:08per reception, they ranked third worst
29:10in the N in the NFL. Opponent target
29:12rate, they rank second last in the NFL
29:15and sixth worst when it comes to
29:16opponent reception yards, opponent
29:18receiving yards. This is a very good
29:19spot. Now, and again, second worst when
29:21it comes to opponent receiving yards,
29:23two running back positions. They are
29:24targeted heavily out of the back field.
29:27Now, let me show you something real
29:28quick. Very important. I want to show
29:30you this routes run. McCaffrey 18.7
29:33routes run per game. That's pretty huge,
29:34by the way. 87th percentile in the
29:36league. And the Broncos are ranked 28th
29:38of 32. 32nd here. Receiving yards.
29:41McCaffrey is at 34.7, which is 59 uh
29:4495th percentile in the league. Broncos
29:46ranked 28th of 32nd against running
29:48back. Target share is also a very
29:50important because we know Christian
29:50McCaffrey is going to eat this ball up.
29:52He's going to run the ball. He's going
29:52to receive the ball. He's going to have
29:53a big part of this game. 20.5% here.
29:56These guys are not good at that
29:57position. A dot. And this is also an
29:58important one here, right? A lot of
30:00times the player takes a has a low A
30:01dot. You want to take the receptions,
30:02but not with McAffrey because here's
30:04why. There's going to be a lot of plays
30:05here where the Broncos are going to bull
30:06rush. They're going to send their
30:07blitzes and they're going to find ways
30:08to get pressure on Brock Py. Now, a
30:10Brock Per is pretty good at scrambling
30:12and moving around. So, he's going to
30:13have some chances to get out of there.
30:14But, who are you going to dump to? We
30:16talked about this all the time, guys. If
30:17quarterbacks are under pressure,
30:18especially with a great pass rush like
30:19the Broncos have, who are you going to
30:21dump it down to? Typically your running
30:23backs and your tight end, that's
30:24typically your your one and twos. And
30:25when it comes to this team, it is most
30:27certainly Christian McCaffrey. KD's
30:28good, but this is a Mcaffrey zone.
30:30What's going to happen here is you're
30:31going to have a team, they're going to
30:32try to put a lot of pressure on Brock
30:33Pury, uh, which is what their game plan
30:35should be. And when they do that, I
30:37expect plenty of dump down opportunities
30:39for for Christian McCaffrey. Let me
30:40check show you guys this. His receptions
30:42are at 4.5. I'm pretty confident that we
30:45could play the receptions here as well.
30:46I think he gets probably six or seven in
30:48this game, which I know sounds crazy
30:50compared to what you're seeing here,
30:51especially with the four and the four.
30:52But look, this game in my opinion two
30:55receptions. They're pretty bad against
30:56this, too. So, you can really take
30:57either one of these, but I want the
30:59yards here. And the reason is because of
31:00the way the Broncos play defense, right?
31:02So, the Broncos going to do some unique
31:04stuff here in the in the in the middle
31:05field. They play a lot of middle field
31:07close on the middle middlefield open.
31:08And what you're going to see here is
31:10they're going to take and they're going
31:11to have a spy on Brock Party just
31:13because Brock Party is going to move
31:14around a lot. It's not going to be we're
31:15not talking about like a Josh Allen spy,
31:16but it's a spy that's going to watch him
31:18and it's typically going to be a
31:19linebacker. And what you're going to see
31:20here is when McAffrey has a chance to
31:22slip out, he might do a quick block, but
31:24most importantly, he's going to slip out
31:25as a receiving target. Oh, let's not
31:27forget McCaffrey lines up as a receiver
31:29as well in this offense. So, like if
31:30there's anyone missing, expect that to
31:32be a probability as well. He's probably
31:33line up a couple times as a receiver.
31:35What we love here is the is the
31:36checkdowns and the screen passes. I
31:38think we get a lot of those in this
31:38game. I think we get George KD blocking
31:40in front of McAffrey. We love that when
31:42the quick pass off to McAffrey. You get
31:43George KD out in front for the block.
31:45That usually equals some good [ __ ]
31:47because George KD is a hell of a
31:48blocker. One of the better blocking
31:49tight ends in the game. Don't forget
31:50about that. Uh but I want George K out
31:52in front of McAffrey. I think we're
31:53going to see a lot of those formations.
31:55McCaffrey out of the back field, plenty
31:56of checkdowns. I see way more than five
31:58receptions here, which leads me to
31:59believe the rushing yards, the receiving
32:01yards should be no problem because in my
32:02opinion, you're going to have some empty
32:04gaps in the middle of that field. You'll
32:05notice they play a lot of mix of zone
32:07and and man here, this this Broncos
32:09defense is a little bit more unique
32:10compared to other defenses. But either
32:11way you shape it, when they're playing
32:14when they're playing that man defense
32:15and you get a little checkdown,
32:17Christian McAffrey is just too shifty.
32:18He can dip and dodge one or two guys and
32:20he's got an open lane. He's the kind of
32:23re the running back a receiving running
32:24back that can literally take this on one
32:26or two p one or two receptions and take
32:28it take it over the 39 yards. So I love
32:30this play a lot. get a closer game here
32:32today. We should play into this working
32:33pretty well for us here today. Broncos
32:35should do a good job
32:38kind of over the top. One second, guys.
32:39My apologies.
32:42The Broncos should do a good job over
32:44the top. They're going to take some deep
32:45shots in this game. I think I don't mind
32:46the guys like, you know, RJ Harvey, but
32:48I think this is going to be a lot of the
32:49Broncos taking some shots in this game,
32:51and they may be able to stay with these
32:52guys. And if they do, based on the
32:54defense, I think McCaffrey is heavily
32:56involved out of the backfield. So, give
32:57me Christian McCaffrey over the 39.5
32:59receiving yards for play number one.
33:01Now, play number two and play number
33:02three are going to be a little
33:02correlated here. So, I'll show you
33:03those. First things first,
33:06sorry, guys.
33:08Sorry, I need some more water.
33:09Apologies.
33:11All right, play number two here. We're
33:12going to go to Travis Travis Kelce over
33:1447.5 receiving yards. Now, this will be
33:18a fun game here. The Chiefs will travel
33:19to take on the Raiders at 4:25 p.m.
33:21Eastern Standard Time. Point total in
33:22this game 47.5 exactly like Travis
33:25Kelce's receiving yard yard line. You're
33:27interesting. Raiders are five-point
33:28underdogs here at home. Both teams are
33:30undefeated. We expect this one to be a
33:31lot of fun. As I mentioned a minute ago,
33:33look, Kelsey's been fantastic this
33:34season. He's gone over the sign in all
33:35three games with ease. He also went over
33:37the sign in two of the three games he
33:38played against these Raiders last
33:39season. And guys, I don't know if you
33:41know this, but Travis Kelce typically
33:43plays very well against the Raiders.
33:45Very well. Now,
33:47in this game here today, I'm expecting
33:49much of the same. Let me take you over
33:50to Props Madison and show you Travis
33:52Kelce. All right, couple things you guys
33:54want to point out or I want to point out
33:55to you guys. First things first, against
33:58tight ends, these guys are not very
33:59good. Uh they're giving up the eighth
34:01most yards in the NFL receiving yards to
34:04tight ends. Looking at receptions,
34:06they're giving up the second most
34:08receptions. So, if you want to take
34:09receptions, I understand that. But I
34:10don't want the receptions here. I
34:12specifically want to target also odds
34:13implied. He goes over less on the
34:14receptions, but I want the receiving
34:16yards here. Odds apply 31.5 time. Part
34:19of that's because of the way, sorry, the
34:20Chiefs are playing offense. Now, you'll
34:22notice Travis Kelce has been heavily
34:24involved in this team. So much so that
34:26I'm about to show you is probably going
34:27to blow your mind here. But let's start
34:28with this. Okay, we'll talk about Kelsey
34:30up against a team he typically plays
34:32very well against. You saw against these
34:34guys, three for five, 71 yards. Nine for
34:3711 against the Colts, 101 yards. And
34:38against the Miami Dolphins, two for two,
34:4059 yards. I think he scored there as
34:41well. What did he score in this game?
34:43Yeah, he scored those last two games.
34:45Uh, look, Kelsey's back. Uh, he's
34:47playing at a very high level for where
34:49he's at in his career. I think people
34:50expect him to kind of fall off after his
34:52whole wedding situation with Taylor
34:53Swift, yada yada yada. I think he's
34:55back, man. This guy is playing really
34:57good football. And guess what? We
34:59already know Patrick Mahomes loves
35:01targeting Travis Kelce, especially in a
35:03spot like this. Check this out. Routes
35:0628.7 routes run per game. That's 91st
35:08percentile leaguewide. I love that. even
35:11with our backup tight ends that we have
35:12over here uh you know in gray and you
35:14know I think Travis Kelce is going is
35:17essentially being worked as a receiver
35:18here by the way they're setting up these
35:20packages and look if you want the truth
35:22let's start over here catch percentage
35:2377.8% 65th percentile in the league
35:26Raiders ranked 29th against 30 uh of 32
35:28against tight ends AOT a little bit
35:30smaller at 6.6 but I'm not really
35:31worried about this because I think
35:33because of the way we're going to play a
35:34lot of zone here I think Kelsey finds
35:36some options here plus target share
35:3818.4% 4% big time percentage there and
35:40receiving yards. Of course, Kelsey's
35:42averaging 77 receiving yards a game,
35:44guys. 77 a game. That's 98th percentile
35:47leaguewide. And guess what? He's
35:48averaging 77. We only need 47.5.
35:51Now, I don't see this game being a
35:52blowout. I think it's going to be a
35:53closer game. And if we're being honest,
35:54the last few times I've watched these
35:56teams play, the Raiders always seem to
35:58give fits to the Chiefs. And what I
36:00don't like about this, sometimes they
36:01keep them, they kind of hold them down a
36:02little bit on scoring, which I don't
36:03love. Uh, but let's look over here.
36:05First off, Dolphins, Greg Doolich. This
36:07guy's, no offense, but he's not much of
36:09a tight end. Uh David and Jooku got
36:11injured as well. He's gone. Jan Johnson
36:13goes over. Now, let's talk about
36:14something that I think is pretty
36:15important about this play. Let's talk
36:16about target share. Right now, Travis
36:18Kelce and Kenneth Walker are they they
36:20they're tied for target share on this
36:22team. Now, keeping in mind Kenneth
36:23Walker is a running back, so it's not a
36:25great sign. And I know a lot of people
36:26are going to be on Kenneth Walker today.
36:27Let me also throw this out here. I think
36:28I think a lot of people are going to be
36:29on Kenneth Walker as the number one play
36:31in this game. And I understand that. Uh,
36:33but I think that the Raiders also know
36:35that the Chiefs want to run the ball
36:36first. And I think with that, there's no
36:38Tyreek Hill back there anymore. It would
36:40make a lot of sense that they find a way
36:41to slow down Kenneth Walker at least a
36:42little bit. Maybe stack the box at the
36:44beginning of the game. 19.8% target
36:46share is pretty good if you ask me. Now
36:47we're going over here to first read
36:50targets for f by the red zone targets.
36:52Travis is 11.5 whereas Kenneth is
36:54getting more of that action. So is
36:55Rasheed Rice. But first read targets, he
36:59gets them all. 29.6%.
37:01He is by far and away getting the most
37:03first read target, which which leads us
37:04to believe that when Mahomes is looking
37:06for someone open, his first look is
37:08going to be Travis Kelce. And when he
37:09sees him open, he's putting the ball on
37:11him very quickly without any any
37:12hesitation. They have a very unique
37:14connection. You guys know how this goes.
37:16If you don't, you got to watch football
37:17a little bit here, but these guys are
37:18incredibly good together. One of the
37:19better combinations we've seen in in our
37:21days of watching football, and I think
37:23they continue to do that here until the
37:24end of his career. Travis that is. I
37:26like this spot a lot today. I think
37:28Travis Kelce is good versus man or zone.
37:30I don't think it's going to matter in
37:31this spot because I believe we've got a
37:32bit of a shootout here. I like the point
37:34total a lot at 47.5 also his is his his
37:37line total for the for the receiving
37:38yards. Most importantly, I look up here
37:41and I see six targets per game, 4.7
37:44receptions per game, 52.7% of the snaps
37:46is beautiful because that means he's
37:47playing essentially always unless it's a
37:49run play here and there. He's still
37:50blocking. He's a great blocker as well.
37:51And of course, 77 receiving yards.
37:54That's a big deal for me. Now, we go to
37:55last season. Just take a look. went over
37:57in every game except for this one here
37:59against the Raiders. So here 68 and by
38:01the way I think this is the game where
38:02the game Mahomes didn't plan it. Yeah,
38:04Mahomes is out by that at that point. So
38:05Mahomes is gone but against these right
38:07here and right here he merked these
38:08guys. Plus look at the touchdowns. No,
38:10not wrong spot. Where am I at? The the
38:12touchdowns for this season. If you go to
38:13the touchdowns this season he's already
38:15scored two touchdown which leads me to
38:16believe also he's going to be looked at
38:18in in the red zone area. And look over
38:21looked pretty beautiful as well. So uh
38:23receiving yards 47.5. I feel really good
38:25about this play today. I just feel like
38:26this is going to be a hell of a matchup.
38:28I like both tight ends here. If you guys
38:29watch the other video, you already know
38:31that. Uh again, don't forget to watch
38:32the other video. There's an excellent
38:33two plays over there. You're going to
38:34want to be a part of this. We're giving
38:35you guys five free plays today between
38:37these two videos. Five free plays that
38:39are fully built out. There's a lot of
38:41people's people's VIP. They don't even
38:43offer you five five plays like that. So,
38:45hopefully you guys respect and
38:46appreciate that. With that said, we are
38:47definitely taking Travis Kelce, play
38:49number two, over 47.5 yards away against
38:51the Raiders for play number two. Play
38:53number three, here comes the
38:54correlation. You better believe it. You
38:55already know where we're going. It is
38:56about that time. We're taking Patrick
38:57Mahomes over one and a half passing
38:59touchdowns. There's a lot of ways you
39:00can run this play, guys. Okay, let me
39:01let me break this down for you guys that
39:03might be looking for some other options.
39:04First off, Mahomes has been great this
39:06season, eclipsing this line all three
39:07games he's played so far. Also, clear
39:09this line two or three matchups last
39:10season. Now, Kelsey, he's sees almost a
39:1230% target show we mentioned a minute
39:13ago, uh, which we like, but in these
39:15first retargets, but look, with Max
39:17Crosie barreling in here, I can see
39:19Momes just checking this thing all over
39:21the place. So, when it comes down to the
39:22end zone or the red zone, what do you
39:24think is going to happen if you are
39:26playing against the Chiefs? If you're
39:27the Raiders who are 3 and 0 looking to
39:28prove it here, this is a prove it spot
39:30for the Raiders much more than the
39:31Chiefs. What do you think they're going
39:33to be looking for down there in the red
39:35zone? You think they're going to be
39:36trying to stack the box to slow down
39:37Kenneth Walker or you think they're
39:39going to let, you know, an extra DB roam
39:41in the back field? I think they're going
39:42to try to stop Kenneth Walker and that's
39:44where I think Mahomes gets Kelsey a
39:46touchdown here. I think gets a touchdown
39:47to Rashi Rice. And I think two is just
39:49too little. I think two touchdowns is
39:51too little for this game. He's gone over
39:53each time this season. He's throwing a
39:54lot of touchdowns. We like that they're
39:55actually doing that in the end zone.
39:56Last season, a little bit more passing
39:58in the end zone. I mean, a little bit
39:59more rushing in the end zone. I like
40:01this spot here today. I think the
40:02Raiders are going to have their eye on
40:03Kenneth Walker. I mean, on um uh on um
40:07our boy Kenneth Walker the third here.
40:10And I just think towards the end zone,
40:11look, and guys, Kenneth Walker for a
40:13touchdown is still a good idea. It's
40:14still a good play. But I got to tell you
40:16guys, I think Mahomes throws two. He
40:17might even throw one to Kenneth Walker
40:18out of the back field. I just think two
40:19touchdowns in a game like this, I've
40:22seen this play out so many times and a
40:23lot of times what happens, you guys, I
40:25don't want to put the the juju out here,
40:26but not that any of that matters, but
40:28the truth, look, 60.6% odds implied to
40:30go over. I like that a lot. The thing
40:32that happens a lot in these matchups is
40:34the Raiders come out and shock these
40:35guys. The first drive or two, Max
40:37Crosby's all over Mahome, maybe sacks
40:38Mahomes, pressures him, maybe tips the
40:40ball, and they're in their head a little
40:41bit. Raiders score, they score a field
40:43goal. 10 to nothing all of a sudden,
40:44right? All of a sudden, the Raiders are
40:45up. This happens a lot in these
40:46matchups.
40:48I don't want that to happen today. I'd
40:49rather I'd rather just be a good
40:50shootout. I'd prefer that today. But if
40:52that happens, I can see Mahomes really
40:54getting involved here in this passing
40:55game. I like his his passing yards over
40:58as well. He's gone over pretty
40:59comfortably here. If you look against
41:00these guys here, uh last season, he's
41:02gone over all three times against them.
41:03But when it comes to the passing
41:04touchdowns, he did miss on this one
41:06because last season they were handing
41:07the ball off all the time. Well, last
41:09time he played these guys in October, he
41:10threw three touchdowns against him. That
41:12was a good spot. Now look at this. This
41:14season, well, what happened here? My
41:15bad. this season, every game. Broncos,
41:18two touchdowns. Okay, easy on that one.
41:20Two pass it has throws 27 pass attempts
41:22in that game. 47 pass attempts against
41:24against Indie here. Three passing
41:26touchdowns. 24 pass attempts against the
41:28Dolphins. Didn't need him to do much in
41:30that game, but still uh two passing
41:32touchdowns there. I like everything
41:33about this play. I also want to show you
41:34guys this real quick. Like just don't
41:36let this scare you or anything. Malik
41:38Willis Dolphins. I mean, whatever. He
41:40didn't score. He didn't pass touchdown.
41:41All good. Herbert, he's been horrific
41:42this year. He might be worse than Malik
41:44Willis, Justin Herbert, and uh Tyler
41:47Shook has been great. So, let's let's
41:48make sure we show that as well. Shook
41:50has been awesome for the four touchdowns
41:51there. But look, this one feels easy to
41:53me. We're playing against a Raiders team
41:54that are they're riding hot right now.
41:56Uh they're 3 and 0. They are at home.
41:58They're going to do whatever they can to
41:59take this win. Those guys are pumped up,
42:00man. That locker room is pumped up. Kurt
42:01Cousins has them running. And I think
42:03they go out there and give these guys a
42:04battle. And with that said, if they have
42:06the battle, I think they're going to
42:07have I like like the over on the score
42:09in this game. 47.5. I see them going
42:11over. hand. I see the Chiefs scoring at
42:13least three touchdowns. If the Chiefs
42:15give me at least three touchdowns, I
42:16think Patty throws two of them. It's
42:18going to be Patrick Mahomes and the
42:19correlation here over 1.5 touchdowns for
42:20play number three. All correlated here,
42:225.07x multiplier for the afternoon
42:25games. Christian McCaffrey over 39.5
42:27receiving yards against that poorest
42:28Broncos receiving defense there. When it
42:31comes to running backs, Travis Kelce
42:32over 47.5 receiving yards against the
42:36Raiders team that is a bad against tight
42:38ends and b uh Travis Kelsey loves to
42:40[ __ ] up. Sorry for the cursing. and
42:41Patrick Mahomes over the 1.5 passing
42:43touchdowns bring the correlation
42:44together there. Now, of course, you can
42:46take the passing yards if you want, but
42:47I prefer the the touchdown here. I think
42:49that Travis Kelce has a good shot of
42:50getting one of them, but I think more
42:51importantly, give me Mahomes to throw,
42:53too. I love that also he does those
42:54little push passes where they'll count
42:55him as as uh if he does an underground
42:57end around to Rice or Worthy, you're
42:59going to touchown pass that often, too.
43:00So, I like that. Mahomes in a good spot
43:02here today to get two touchdowns. Uh,
43:04give me the 300 to win 1521 for
43:06McCaffrey over his receiving yards,
43:07Kelsey's receiving yards, and Mahomes
43:09over his 1.5 passing touchdowns. Now,
43:11before I show you guys play number two,
43:12play number three, which is our anytime
43:14touchdown play that I love here today.
43:17Let me take you over here real quick and
43:18show you something else. So, if you guys
43:19are new here, follow me here to the link
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47:04chance to do this, guys. If you not read
47:06the comments, you might want to pay
47:07attention. And I know a lot of our paid
47:08players don't talk about their wins
47:09because they're more private. We get
47:11that. But there are a few in there that
47:12will tell you that we're crushing. And
47:13when they do, pay attention to them.
47:15Code is NFL now. Don't want to miss out
47:17on that. All right. Get you guys play
47:18number three here today,
47:20which is going to be our anytime
47:21touchdown play.
47:24Now, for this play, going to Onyx. Once
47:27again, again, all three plays on Onyx
47:28today. It's not It's not always like
47:30that. Just they paid out the best onyx
47:31today, so we had to stick to it. I do
47:33have a sleeper play for you guys that
47:34you should really really enjoy for the
47:36night game. Hopefully you guys get the
47:37like goal so you get that. We've got you
47:39guys you got you guys rather a 5.75x
47:41multiplier. So almost a 6x here going
47:43300 to win 1725 on this twoman anytime
47:46touchdown play. Let's get into it. First
47:49things first, you already know we're
47:50going right to Travis Kelce for the
47:51anytime touchdown. You should have
47:52guessed it. If you didn't, now I'm
47:54letting you know. We're taking Travis
47:55Kelce anytime touchdown. This is a
47:56pretty easy one here. Okay, I already
47:58broke this down and why I like Kelsey so
48:00much today. Let's go to the touchdowns
48:01here. He is becoming a big-time red zone
48:04target. And guess what? When it comes to
48:05touchdowns, guess who ranks last in all
48:07of football to tight ends scoring
48:09against them? That's right, my friends,
48:11the Las Vegas Raiders. They get scored
48:12on the most when it comes to uh
48:14defensive the offensive scoring to tight
48:16ends against the their their defense.
48:18The most. Yes, that's very important.
48:21Also want to let you guys know Jawan
48:23Johnson scored two touchdowns against
48:25these guys. And Noah Fant. Wait, not
48:28that's not two touchdowns, is it? That
48:29can't be right. I have touchdowns up.
48:31Holy [ __ ] That can't be right, guys.
48:34two and two. Was it two and two in that
48:35game? I know Jawan had two, but I don't
48:37think so. Either way, I'll check him in
48:38a minute. You know what? Let's just take
48:40a look. Nah, [ __ ] it. Let's start from
48:41here. So, week one against the Broncos,
48:43no touchdown. You guys know that. But
48:45again, week week two against uh Colts
48:47scored that beautiful, beautiful
48:48touchdown. Another one against the
48:50Dolphins. He's got odd odds imply he
48:52goes to touchdown 40.8% of the time.
48:54That's ridiculous to me. But again, the
48:55reasoning behind this is just simply
48:57because the Raiders are not good against
48:59tight ends, specifically in the red
49:01zone. So give me Travis Kelce for
49:02touchdown number one here. The only
49:04thing I want to point out is the red
49:05zone targets. He's got a little bit less
49:06than the other guys in his team in the
49:07red zone, but that doesn't matter to me
49:09because the two that he had, he caught.
49:11So he's 100% on these two, whereas these
49:13guys are not 100%. So also first read
49:15target share. This is where it's at. Uh
49:17Patrick Mahomes, get one to Travis Kelce
49:20here today if you don't mind when you
49:21throw those two touchdowns. Give us
49:22Travis Kelce for touchdown number one.
49:24Now, I was going to give you guys the
49:24obvious Derrick Henry. I'm not going to
49:26do that to you guys. Everyone should
49:27know to play Derrick Henry for a
49:28touchdown in some way. You can't play it
49:29by itself. The payout's not good enough,
49:31but VIP players, you'll see him paired
49:33with a couple different ways. We got a
49:34bunch of different combinations we have
49:35here today. Play number two, we're going
49:37to Parker Washington for a touchdown
49:38here. This should be the shootout of the
49:39game. Uh Parker is going to be the
49:41number one receiver on this team, but
49:42don't get it twisted. Uh I think we're
49:44going to have a spot here where we have
49:45Where's Parker? Right here. My bad,
49:47guys. Uh I think we have a spot here in
49:48this particular game. And also want to
49:50check something real quick. Oh, he only
49:52played them one last season. So, right
49:53here. I think we have a spot here
49:55against this Bengals team uh where we're
49:57going to have some pretty heavy scoring.
49:59Now, we got a high I think the highest
50:01point total in the game in the in the of
50:02the day, right? Let me check that real
50:04quick for you guys. I believe it's the
50:04highest point total. 51.5. I think it's
50:07the highest point total of of the Sunday
50:09slate. If not, it's one of the highest.
50:10I see a shootout here. Okay. Very low
50:13chance of rain. This should be a good
50:15game for football and I see a shootout.
50:18And I know that when it comes to Trevor
50:20Lawrence, he has a couple guys he looks
50:21for in the end zone and Parker
50:22Washington has simply been one of them.
50:23He has a 41.7% odds implied to go over
50:26on this touchdown. That is ridiculous,
50:27by the way. Uh, but again, the dude is
50:30scoring, you know, in in two of his
50:31three games this season. Also, I believe
50:33in this game here, if I'm correct, I
50:35think he got stopped on like the one
50:37yard line or something. Is that the
50:38right I think it's I think he did. I
50:39could be wrong. I think that's the game
50:41he got stopped on the one yard line and
50:42they end up running it in or something.
50:43I could be wrong on that, but either
50:44way, it was one of these one of these
50:45guys. Either way, I love the touchdowns
50:47here for Parker Washington. I think this
50:49is a shootout. I think each team scores
50:50at least three touchdowns. If that's the
50:52case, I think one of those is definitely
50:54going to Parker Washington. So, give me
50:55Travis Kelce and Parker Washington
50:57anytime touchdown play. Don't forget, we
50:58cash these all the time, guys, if you
50:59guys are new here. Let me show you this
51:01right here. We catched Firemouth and
51:04Harold Fannon in VIP for the 15X. Turned
51:06200 into 3,000 there. This is something
51:08we do a lot of here. So, uh, look, if
51:10you guys are going to play these plays,
51:11please remember, A, bet responsibly. B,
51:14you know, this is the play I kind of I
51:15teased down a little bit. I bought the
51:16lines down just a fraction for you guys
51:18because that 1 p.m. slate's been tricky
51:19for the free play. So, hopefully we get
51:20that rocking. 4 p.m. game, 4 p.m. slate.
51:22I love the correlated game stack here.
51:24Uh I I thought about using a Raider, but
51:26I have I Raider another play. So I like
51:28the spot a lot here. McCaffrey should be
51:29getting plenty of checkdowns, plenty of
51:31receiving action here. Kelsey Mahomes
51:33should be lighting it up against this
51:34Raiders team. They typically do, and
51:35they may be playing from behind in this
51:36game. Raiders are better than you guys
51:37think. And of course, play number three,
51:39the anytime touchdown play. Bring them
51:41all together. Travis Kelce, Parker
51:42Washington for the touchdowns. I love
51:44this for the 5.75x multiplier. They're
51:46going to turn to 300 into 1725. Can't go
51:48wrong here. Again, these are guys that
51:50are top targets in the end zone for
51:52their respective teams. Their
51:53quarterbacks know that their
51:54quarterbacks trust them. The
51:54quarterbacks like them in games where we
51:56should have pretty good shootouts, by
51:57the way, in both these games. Probably
51:59two options, two times, two two games
52:01here. We have a lot of opportunities for
52:02extra touchdowns. So, give me Kelsey and
52:04Parker Washington for play number three
52:05for the touchdown. Now, guys, don't
52:07forget before I get you out of here,
52:08finally, last thing, going back to the
52:10plans here, guys. Don't forget to get
52:11the free plan. I tell you this in every
52:12video, but don't don't make the mistake
52:14of forgetting because you're going to
52:15end up missing a play. And if this video
52:17gets to 750 likes, I have no doubt you
52:18guys do that. I'm going to get this one
52:19out probably about an hour or two
52:20earlier than normal, which is not easy
52:22to do usually, but give you guys some
52:24more time before Sunday. Get this thing
52:26to 750 likes. We usually have, you know,
52:279 10,000 views on these videos. So, get
52:29it to 750 likes. Once you're there,
52:31you're going to get additional VIP play.
52:32We've done very well with those as well.
52:34So, get that VIP play by hitting that
52:35750 likes. Don't forget, guys, last day,
52:38well, last two days to get these
52:39specials for the VIP players. If you
52:40want to have a lot of fun here today
52:41with us, again, no guarantees you win.
52:43We could lose every single play. It's
52:44very possible. Is it likely? No, it's
52:46very unlikely. We're pretty good at
52:47this. But with that said, and by the
52:49way, Sundays have been battles for us.
52:50We'll start down, then we dominate the
52:52rest of the day. So, it's been it's been
52:53kind of like a war on the last Sundays
52:55rather. So, really looking forward to
52:57this Sunday, guys. We have a ton of
52:58value. I told you in the last video,
52:59I'll tell you again. If you're a paid
53:00player, be ready. Keep your
53:02notifications on. We'll have plays
53:04coming out just up until game time for
53:05certain plays, for certain uh
53:07information that we're waiting on. So,
53:08keep your notifications on. I know it's
53:11Sunday. Some of you guys have to, you
53:12know, uh, you have you have plans with
53:14family and church and everything else
53:15you're doing. It's totally
53:16understandable, but keep those
53:16notifications on. A lot of plays will be
53:18coming out before the games. I got a lot
53:20of action for you paid players today. If
53:22you're not yet on the paid plans, you
53:23have VIP and NFL pass available to you.
53:25VIP plan, the VIP special is VIP now is
53:28the code. The NFL pass, the code is NFL
53:30now. Remember, you can use buy now pay
53:31later for all this stuff, guys. Don't
53:33forget, get on the free plan. We love
53:35y'all. We appreciate you guys. Let's
53:36have a great Sunday here today. Let's do
53:38our best to go back to back on the free
53:39plays and catch you at least one more
53:40free plan win today. Free play win. If
53:42we get two or three, excellent. We
53:44always want to go for a sweep, but
53:45sweeps are very difficult. Last time we
53:46had a free play sweep for football. The
53:47way we do plays, it's not something you
53:49should really be aiming towards. But we
53:50had one a couple of weeks ago where we
53:52cashed $4,600 in in the three free plays
53:55for our paid players. In fact, I'll just
53:56show you that real quick before I get
53:57you out of here. I think it was right up
54:01here. No, that's when we missed all by
54:0414 yards. But before that, we cashed it.
54:06And that was right.
54:08Was it here? Was it Where was this damn
54:10thing? There it goes. We cashed this
54:12one. We cashed this twoman play. We gave
54:13you the fourman add-on play. And we gave
54:15you guys the two manual play. Don't
54:17forget, guys, for Monday's video, we're
54:19going to do the same style as this.
54:20We've been having a lot of fun with
54:21those single games doing this style
54:23here. So, let's get into it, guys. We
54:24love you all. We appreciate you guys.
54:25Don't forget to like the video,
54:26subscribe to the channel if you haven't
54:28done it yet. Comment below for a chance
54:29to win a free week of VIP. Remember,
54:31everybody, share this video with a
54:33friend. If you got some a group chat
54:34that likes this stuff, share it with
54:35them. There's no sense in gatekeeping.
54:36We can all win together. I promise you
54:38guys, our goal is always to win you guys
54:40as much money as possible because guess
54:41what? When you guys in the free plan win
54:43win win enough money with us in the free
54:44plays, oftent times you come buy our
54:45package and you see what the real deal
54:47is all about. We love you guys. We
54:48appreciate you guys. Happy Sunday. Let's
54:49make it a banger and let's keep on
54:51cashing.

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