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Покупай рынок СЕЙЧАС, пока все боятся! И вот почему — Transcript

by Филипп Олейник: Код финансовой свободы · 3,602 words · 591 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Google had the worst day in the
0:02company's history. Intel has fallen 60%
0:04from its highs.
0:06Semiconductors crashed by more than 30%
0:08from their highs, and the S&P 500 itself
0:11dropped before the elections.
0:13But I will tell you that you must buy
0:16this dip. And in this video, I will give
0:19you five main reasons why you should do
0:21it right now. Interested? Then get ready
0:24for a journey into the world of finance
0:26, because we are about to upload a
0:28bundle of new skills for you. You are on
0:30the "Financial Freedom Code" channel.
0:32Let's go.
0:41>> Hello, my friend. This is Filipp Oleynik
0:43. And the Democrats took over both
0:45chambers. And power finally became
0:48divided. One red president against two
0:51blue chambers.
0:52And the most important point is to talk
0:54about the elections. Elections are
0:57classic uncertainty for the market,
0:59because it's unknown who will win or
1:01what to expect. Although in reality, the
1:04market behavior scenario during and
1:06after elections is quite predictable and
1:09very cyclical. It is simple. The market
1:11falls during its weakest period. This is
1:14the four-year presidential cycle. And
1:17during midterms, it reaches a bottom in
1:20the second half of that midterm year.
1:23Then it continues to grow. Just look at
1:26this chart.
1:28Throughout recent history, we have seen
1:3110 such situations, 10 midterm elections
1:33, and you won't believe it, 10 drawdowns
1:35.
1:36The smallest was an 8%drawdown in 1994.
1:41This was the year the Fed raised
1:43interest rates, well, seven times.
1:46At the same time, the average drawdown
1:48for these midterms is approximately 21%
1:50.
1:52And this happens under both Democrats
1:54and Republicans, during periods of
1:57inflation, disinflation, cyclical growth
1:59, and cyclical decline.
2:01Why does this happen? Why does the
2:03market fall in midterm years, and why is
2:05this just a pattern now?
2:07The first reason is, Mr. Trump, the
2:09administration tries to implement the
2:12most unpleasant, painful, and unpopular
2:14decisions at the start of its term.
2:18These are taxes, tariffs, spending cuts
2:20, and tighter regulations; all of this
2:23can be done, so to speak, right after
2:26presidential elections.
2:28And the economy begins to feel this,
2:31well, directly in its second year.
2:34Secondly, political uncertainty reaches
2:36its peak just before the elections,
2:38because markets dislike the unknown, and
2:41they dislike uncertainty regarding who
2:43will control Congress.
2:46And they factor this uncertainty into
2:48prices as a discount.
2:51And thirdly, the strongest factor: the
2:54elimination of this uncertainty after
2:56the elections becomes a catalyst; as
2:59soon as the elections end, as soon as
3:01the results are known, regardless of the
3:04outcome, market uncertainty drops
3:06sharply, and accordingly, the market
3:08knows what to expect going forward.
3:12So, going forward, we are either
3:14expecting a political stalemate or some
3:16new stimulus measures. And the third
3:18year of the presidential cycle is
3:19beginning. Historically, it is the
3:21strongest of all four years of the
3:23presidential cycle. Right now, you see
3:25on the screen a seasonal chart from JP
3:27Morgan specifically for the average
3:29midterm election year. Mind you, since
3:321946. And it shows exactly the weakest
3:35period of that timeframe.
3:36From about April to September-October is
3:39the weakest zone.
3:40That is, on average, the market stays
3:43flat or corrects over these 6 months.
3:45However, if we take any other
3:47non-election year, the market usually
3:50grows during this time.
3:52And right now, in the final quarter
3:54where we currently are, this gap is
3:56gradually narrowing.
3:58Why are we talking about this? Because
4:00seasonality is, in general, a fairly
4:02strong and proven factor for the stock
4:04market. Seasonality exists not only for
4:06the S&P 500 index or the broad market.
4:08It also exists for individual stocks,
4:12sectors, certain trends, and so on.
4:15I like to use the Equity Clock website
4:19to check seasonality.
4:21It is relatively free. You can look at
4:24seasons there for the last 20 years.
4:26Stocks, securities relative to their
4:28sector, to the S&P 500, and individual
4:30sectors. Check your stocks there.
4:33Go take a look at the seasonality of
4:36your favorite index.
4:37But, naturally, this is not the only
4:39factor that influences stocks. First and
4:42foremost, stocks are influenced, of
4:43course, by the business's own
4:44performance metrics.
4:45This includes revenue and profit growth
4:48, debt reduction and buybacks, or
4:50conversely, taking on debt and diluting
4:52investors.
4:54And by the way, we have a new course on
4:55how to learn to select profitable stocks
4:57and how to invest intelligently in
4:58individual companies.
5:00You can learn the details by filling out
5:02this pre-registration form. It is over
5:04fifteen lessons filled exclusively with
5:06practical recommendations, homework
5:08assignments, and actionable tips.
5:11This is the very system that has allowed
5:13me to significantly outperform the S&P
5:15500 index over the last 5 years.
5:18So, if you also want to improve your
5:19results, follow the QR code or the link
5:21in the description, and let’s move on.
5:24The next important factor we must
5:26consider besides the presidential
5:27election this year is, of course, the
5:29change of the Fed Chair.
5:32A change in the Fed Chair is classically
5:34met by the market in the same way.
5:36Stocks drop in the first few months. of
5:40the new Fed Chair's tenure. Just look at
5:43this chart. How was it for the recent
5:45ones? Yes, Powell -7%in the first 3
5:48months, Yellen -4%, Bernanke, Greenspan
5:50, Volcker, and so on. You can see all of
5:53this on the screen right now. The
5:54statistics are just crazy.
5:5712 new chairs and 12 stock market
5:59pullbacks averaging 12%—what a
6:02convenient coincidence for the first 3
6:04months.
6:06And no one managed to avoid some kind of
6:08correction. Why does the market react
6:10this way to a change in the Fed chair?
6:13Because when a new person becomes Fed
6:16chair, the market doesn't evaluate them
6:18as a person with a rich inner world.
6:21It evaluates them as a distribution of
6:23probabilities for potential events in
6:25the stock market.
6:27Because when the same chair has been
6:29there for 6 years, all market
6:31participants—journalists, traders, and
6:34investors—learn their decision-making
6:36logic by heart.
6:38Especially, I can tell you from my own
6:40experience, when you watch every meeting
6:42live, like Jerome Powell's, you already
6:45know what they'll say in response to a
6:47certain question. You know their level
6:49of tolerance for a drawdown.
6:53You understand at what interest rate
6:55they start to shift, what level of
6:58stress in the bond market is acceptable
7:01, and so on.
7:03That’s when it’s someone familiar;
7:04you’ve studied them, especially if you
7:06watch every speech. But a new person,
7:09that’s uncertainty, right? And markets
7:12deal with uncertainty in the only way
7:14they know how. They increase the risk
7:15premium, which means they fall in price
7:16. They drop amid uncertainty until the
7:20new chair is forced to show how they act
7:24during certain events. So, this trial
7:27for the Fed chair is a typical price
7:30discovery process applied to the new
7:33person in charge. There’s no need to
7:35look far for an example. Jerome Powell
7:38became chair in February 2018. And
7:41literally just a couple of days later,
7:43there was a sharp spike in volatility.
7:45The S&P 500 fell 10%.
7:48Wall Street characterized this as "
7:50Volmageddon." From the words volatility
7:53and Armageddon. And, accordingly, for
7:55the rest of the year, the market tested
7:58Powell’s strength.
8:00And when Powell said at the end of the
8:02year that, well, rates actually still
8:04needed to go up, the S&P index fell 20%
8:06.
8:08After that, Powell changed his course,
8:11and 2019 was a very strong year for
8:13stocks. Therefore, the sequence is
8:15usually like this.
8:17First, a new Fed chair appears, then
8:20comes a cycle of midterm elections, an
8:22autumn sell-off, a serious bottom is
8:25formed, and then it grows into a major
8:28rally.
8:29This has become a predictable market
8:32pattern in recent cycles. If we talk
8:34about dates, Powell became chair on May
8:3622nd. Accordingly, his three-month
8:38window ends at the end of August. Well,
8:40I’d say it’s realistic to expect it in
8:42the autumn, counting from his first
8:44speech. This does not mean that the
8:46pullback must happen exactly within the
8:48first 3 months.
8:49I believe that we are seeing the main
8:51challenge right now, in the month of
8:53November.
8:54And you have to keep this cyclicality in
8:57mind.
8:58Most importantly, so your portfolio
9:00doesn't experience this at the worst
9:03time, sign up for a free consultation.
9:06If you have questions about your
9:08portfolio, stocks, financial planning,
9:10or want to improve your results, get a
9:12second opinion, or define a smart
9:13investment strategy, we are here to help
9:15.
9:16Free consultation, link in the
9:18description, QR code on the screen. We
9:20are always waiting for you and always
9:21happy to see you. By the way, since
9:23we're talking about volatility, it also
9:26has its own seasonality. You can now see
9:28the average typical volatility of the
9:30VIX index on the screen, which is the
9:32fear index, or the volatility index, as
9:34a rule.
9:36It reaches a minimum somewhere in
9:38mid-summer, when trading volumes are
9:40very low, people are on vacation, and in
9:42late August it starts to increase, with
9:44the peak, of course, hitting in the
9:46autumn, October-November.
9:49These are the months with the most
9:51uncertainty: company earnings, market
9:53shocks, revised expectations,
9:55macroeconomic surprises, and so on.
9:59And, of course, in a midterm election
10:00year, this autumn peak is much higher
10:02than usual.
10:04This is what we were talking about right
10:06at the beginning.
10:07Pre-election uncertainty and a lack of
10:10policy clarity impact stocks.
10:13And looking ahead, what we see is a
10:15decrease in volatility until
10:16January-February, and a new surge, a new
10:18peak, somewhere in mid-March to early
10:21April.
10:22If you are interested in how to use the
10:25VIX Index for your investment and
10:27speculative decisions, pay close
10:29attention to the screen right now.
10:32This is a visual guide on how the VIX
10:34index gives you clear signals on what
10:36you should do. When the VIX index is
10:38below about twenty, it indicates that
10:41the market is quite complacent, maybe
10:44even greedy, and it is not the best time
10:46to add to your positions. Usually, this
10:49is where major long-term profit-taking
10:52occurs. The working range of 20-30 is a
10:54holding zone, representing a standard,
10:57neutral situation. And, of course, the
11:00best buying zones are above thirty, and
11:03especially above forty.
11:05You are practically obligated to buy
11:08when the S&P 500's VIX is above forty—
11:10this is not investment advice, but save
11:13this image as a reference.
11:16It will especially help you make
11:18balanced investment decisions when the
11:20market hits its toughest times.
11:23In general, a sell-off is a very
11:24important part, especially for the
11:26current market, in order to continue the
11:28upward movement. It’s all because the
11:30market, well, cannot grow indefinitely.
11:31Just as a person cannot inhale forever,
11:34they must exhale.
11:36When speculative profit builds up in the
11:38market, it has to be locked in somehow
11:40to eventually find support from below.
11:44Accordingly, a periodic shake-up in the
11:46market prevents the trend from
11:49completely drying out.
11:51It resets the mood a bit, eases leverage
11:54slightly, and moves stocks from weak
11:56hands to strong ones.
11:59Right now, regarding leverage, we
12:01certainly face some rather serious
12:04global risks.
12:06This, as you can see on the screen now,
12:08is the ratio of margin debt to the money
12:10supply.
12:11It is at the absolutely crazy levels of
12:142000 and 2007.
12:16And the real problems don't start from
12:17the high debt, but from the moment it
12:19turns around. At that point, as they say
12:21, no hostages will be taken. It’s a lost
12:23cause. And a reversal in margin debt is
12:25, of course, very harsh. Margin calls
12:28are very serious events. I don’t think
12:30the margin debt problem will surface in
12:32the next couple of months. I believe
12:34that we will still see some more growth
12:36. But another long-term risk, yes, is
12:39still the low volume of cash.
12:42That is, yes, even if further growth is
12:44possible, it will usually be growth not
12:47from savings, but from margin.
12:49Therefore, we may see further margin
12:51expansion, because there simply isn't
12:53enough of our own money in the market
12:55right now. Yes, you can also see this in
12:58this chart of the S&P 500 index to the
13:01M2 money supply, which is now at levels
13:03above the speculative bubble of 2000.
13:07This suggests that while the market is
13:09growing, it is growing much faster than
13:11real liquidity in the economy.
13:15And usually, they should synchronize
13:16with each other and be somewhere near
13:18the fair, well, the green neutral zone
13:20in our picture.
13:23Another important risk we are facing now
13:25is the put-to-call ratio, which shows
13:27that almost no one is hedging right now
13:29, right?
13:30Everyone is aiming higher. At least
13:32that’s how it was toward the end of
13:34summer, before autumn. Everyone was
13:36buying calls; almost no one was buying
13:37puts. That is what is called a strong
13:39imbalance. A tilted bias. And it is very
13:42important to unload these sentiments.
13:43And perhaps the current correction has
13:45just corrected this imbalance. I will
13:48update this picture on my Telegram
13:49channel. In fact, we regularly examine
13:52these types of articles there. I provide
13:54market updates after my videos, so be
13:56sure to subscribe. I also want us to
13:58open up a little discussion right now.
14:01Write in the comments what you think
14:03about the current drop we saw in the S&
14:04P 500—that 3-4%from the highs before the
14:06election and the subsequent pullback
14:08right after the results were announced.
14:11Do you think this correction is enough
14:13for a reset, or are we still bound to
14:16slide lower? You’ll hear my opinion at
14:18the end, of course, so watch the video
14:20to the finish.
14:21Write your opinion honestly, don’t cheat
14:24, and let's compare how similar our
14:26views are on this.
14:28So, how good of an entry point is a dip
14:30after midterms or after a Fed chair
14:32appointment, historically speaking?
14:35Let’s look at history right now. And
14:38history tells us the following. Let’s
14:40take the year 1990. That was the Gulf
14:42War. A pullback for the S&P 500 index.
14:44What happened in 1991? A fantastic year
14:47for the market. In 1998, the low was
14:49also formed in October, against the
14:51backdrop of Long-Term Capital Management
14:53liquidating positions, followed by
14:55explosive growth in 1999 up to the
14:57literal peak of the bubble in March 2000
14:59.
15:01In 2010, the low was in the summer, when
15:03the market was still in despair after
15:05the flash crash that occurred.
15:07And then, accordingly, the market was
15:09flooded with money, quantitative easing
15:11began, and we love the money printer.
15:13The market really loves the printer. And
15:15in a couple of months, the S&P 500 index
15:17added literally 30%.
15:19And, of course, we’ve already talked
15:22about 2018 here as well. The low was on
15:25the eve of Christmas.
15:27All those talks by Jerome Powell about
15:29raising rates.
15:31But in 2019, the market gave over 30%.
15:35In 2022, the low for that year was in
15:38mid-October against the backdrop of the
15:40start of the war in Ukraine, rising
15:42inflation, and rising oil prices, and
15:44investor sentiment was very poor back
15:47then.
15:48And the following years, as you know,
15:502023, the release of ChatGPT and the
15:52bull market from then until today.
15:55Why is the third year of the
15:57presidential cycle so great? Simply
15:59because the factors that held the market
16:02back in the first 2 years stop being
16:04effective. Uncertainty passes. After the
16:07election results, we get a winner, and
16:09the administration, effectively,
16:11switches to some concrete decisions and
16:13actions. The market understands this. In
16:15our current case, a balancing of the
16:18unbalanced Trump is taking place.
16:20Democrats will now calm down any crazy
16:22decisions from Trump, right?
16:25Meaning it’s no longer a situation where
16:28all branches of government are with the
16:31Republicans; now, the Democrats can
16:34actually restrain Trump in his more
16:36active ideas regarding taxes or tariffs
16:39.
16:40That’s why if some crazy idea enters his
16:42head, naturally, the Democrats won't let
16:44it pass through either the House or the
16:45Senate.
16:46Therefore, most likely, over the next
16:48month or month and a half, we will
16:49probably form some kind of a low. Or
16:51perhaps we’ve already hit that minimum
16:53since the election ended.
16:55And then, in all likelihood, a very
16:57strong period for stocks will begin.
17:00Some even cite statistics comparing the
17:03current Nasdaq to '98, when a decline
17:06occurred—as you can see on screen—right
17:09in October, at year-end, followed by a
17:12massive surge, up until April '28 in
17:15today’s terms.
17:18I don’t put much stock in such
17:20correlations, but you can save it, track
17:22it yourself, and check back on it once a
17:25quarter. Now, of course, let’s take a
17:27look at the charts together.
17:29I’m recording this right now as the
17:32election results are in; the Democrats
17:34won and took both chambers.
17:37And we can see that for the S&P 500
17:39futures, 7,600 is a fairly strong level
17:42.
17:45It looks like we’re holding it—yes, we
17:48seem to be holding 7,600 and might head
17:51back to 7,800 or even higher.
17:55You can see that on the weekly chart, we
17:57hit the weekly moving averages perfectly
18:00, mirroring the scenario we had back in
18:02July, right?
18:04Meaning we made two such moves, hit the
18:07moving average, and then flew up to a
18:10new shelf.
18:11Now we’re on a new shelf. We’re here,
18:13we’ll hit the moving averages, and
18:15likely fly to a new shelf. And it could
18:17continue like that. I am, of course,
18:19bothered by a few things. First, it
18:21looks very much like a double top. The
18:24target for this double top is at least
18:267,300.
18:27If we take 7,300 as our base scenario,
18:30that would be a 6%drop.
18:33Honestly, that’s not much for such a
18:35significant year. But if we look a
18:38little deeper at the monthly chart, we
18:40see that there are moving averages and a
18:43solid support zone. Yes, we can see how
18:46the chart periodically bounces quite
18:48nicely off its moving averages.
18:50That was April '25, and March/April of
18:54'26.
18:55And the fair value based on moving
18:57averages right now is around 7,000.
18:59And that actually seems like a fair
19:01correction. About 10-12%.
19:04It looks very much like the kind of
19:06unloading the market is missing. It’s
19:08clear that the day has only just opened
19:10for us. We don’t know how the day will
19:12close after the election, but for now,
19:14it looks very strong.
19:16We set a huge false breakout here and
19:19could continue moving upward.
19:23I’m not sure if this will be a long-term
19:25trend, but if it continues and we start
19:27holding above the weekly moving averages
19:29, then we’ll likely bounce upward from
19:32here, just as we did back in July.
19:35But for my own confident, solid long
19:37positions, I would still like to see a
19:39correction to 7,000.
19:42This will be a great level to build
19:45medium-term speculative positions in the
19:47market.
19:49And, of course, you will be able to
19:51build absolutely stunning long positions
19:54from there.
19:56Not investment advice, but something for
19:58you to think about regarding where we
19:59stand.
20:01I’ll say this: there are periods in the
20:03market when you need to be more cautious
20:04—and that’s generally the case right now
20:07—but there are also periods when you
20:08need to hit the gas pedal.
20:11Right now, you should consider
20:13positioning yourself so that your foot
20:16is hovering over that gas pedal. At the
20:18same time, you still have to accelerate
20:20the right way. First and foremost, don’t
20:22just invest in everything.
20:24It’s best to choose good, quality
20:26companies that have a proven upside and
20:29an economic moat that protects their
20:31business.
20:33That is exactly what we teach in our
20:34lessons: how to select and find such
20:36companies. As usual, the link is in the
20:38description. And a second point: having
20:40exposure to cash—an allocation to cash—
20:43is also a position in itself.
20:45It’s perfectly normal to keep 10-15%of
20:47your portfolio in cash during this time
20:49; it may well be justified to rebalance
20:51your stocks that have grown once a
20:53quarter.
20:54Especially if the VIX jumps above thirty
20:56, it will be a golden time, and you will
20:59be very glad that you had that extra
21:01cash in your portfolio. Again, in my
21:04personal opinion, I am currently looking
21:06for long opportunities and finding
21:08interesting companies. I write about my
21:10trades in detail on my Telegram channel
21:12, so you can go over there and take a
21:14look.
21:15I also recommend that you push the gas a
21:18little on good companies with solid
21:20businesses, because, as a rule, from
21:23November to March, we see very good,
21:25very sweet seasonality.
21:28Write down what you think about this.
21:31Are you expecting a bull market and a
21:33reversal right now, or are you waiting
21:35for an even deeper pullback to 7,000, or
21:37maybe 6,500, and so on?
21:39Let’s chat about this topic and discuss
21:41it.
21:42But be that as it may, subscribe to this
21:45channel if you liked this content.
21:47Hit the like button so YouTube
21:49recommends this financial content to you
21:52more often.
21:54And, of course, YouTube recommends you
21:56watch these videos right now, which
21:58nicely complement our analysis of the
22:00current market situation.
22:02Especially since the Anthropic IPO is
22:04coming soon.
22:06You’ll surely be interested in seeing
22:07what’s actually going on under the hood
22:09of this highly hyped company.
22:12And, of course, remember that the
22:14financial matrix has its own code, and
22:17you just need to learn how to see it.
22:19Big profits, dear friends. Bye-bye. Ah.

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