Austin Championship Preview: New Course, Model Picks & DFS Plays | Fazio Canyons — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:07Welcome to the Second Cup podcast. I'm
- 0:09Greg Ducharm and this is your Austin
- 0:11Championship preview. Really excited for
- 0:14this show. We got a lot to get into. Uh
- 0:17Austin Championship taking place this
- 0:20week down Omni Barton Creek. It's the
- 0:24Fazio Golf Course which we've never seen
- 0:26on the PGA Tour before. This event was
- 0:29supposed to be, it was originally going
- 0:31to be a good good event, but with all
- 0:34the fallout that happened a couple
- 0:35months ago with that, it is now the
- 0:37Austin Championship, uh, with a
- 0:40presenting sponsor, of course. Um, but
- 0:42so this is a new golf course and it's a
- 0:45pretty cool opportunity for us to go
- 0:46through and figure out what it's going
- 0:48to require, uh, what we expect to see.
- 0:50So, we'll show you what the scorecard
- 0:52looks like. We'll go through some of the
- 0:54Tom Fosio key characteristics. We'll
- 0:56look at some of the best performers on
- 0:58Fazio courses and we're going to create
- 1:01a model as well. So, we got a lot to get
- 1:03into from the preview side of things. Uh
- 1:06we also have a couple of other things
- 1:08I'd like to wrap up from yesterday's
- 1:10conversation. If you joined us in the
- 1:12worldwide technologies
- 1:14uh championship recap, we also got into
- 1:17a little bit of the live stuff and
- 1:20couple of those things I'd really like
- 1:21to follow up on. So, we're going to do
- 1:23that. But I want to remind you that
- 1:26right here on the second cut, if you are
- 1:27a fan of the PGA Tour, this is the place
- 1:30to be. We are going through deep dives
- 1:33and preview episodes for every single
- 1:36PGA Tour event. We also have round
- 1:38recaps on Fridays and Sundays uh in a
- 1:42typical week. That that will definitely
- 1:44be the case in 2027. It's been a little
- 1:47spotty here in the fall with uh you know
- 1:49some other things going on, but we are
- 1:52in-depth wall-to-wall coverage every
- 1:54single PGA Tour event, this is the place
- 1:57to be. So, um if if that's what you're
- 1:59into, if you love the PGA Tour, hit that
- 2:02subscribe button. Uh make sure you
- 2:04follow along with everything we have
- 2:05going on here on the second cut. To
- 2:07those of you who already have, I
- 2:09appreciate it. Thank you very much for
- 2:11your time. Means a great deal to me. I I
- 2:13hope you're learning and enjoying and I
- 2:16hope it really enhances your experience
- 2:18watching the PGA Tour. Now, I mentioned
- 2:23we spent a little bit of time on kind of
- 2:26the fallout, if you will, of Live Golf
- 2:28closing its doors and beginning winding
- 2:31windown operations.
- 2:34And through this process, since Liv lost
- 2:37its funding from PIFF and kind of has
- 2:39been working to create a Liv 2.0, know
- 2:42we
- 2:44um we've had a number of bigname players
- 2:47announce that they're not going to be
- 2:48playing. They've announced another path
- 2:50in many cases that they're going to go
- 2:52down. John Rom tier Hatton, you know,
- 2:55some of the big names like that are
- 2:56going to be playing uh PGA. They're
- 2:59going to be playing DP World Tour Golf
- 3:00in hopes of getting back to the PGA
- 3:02Tour. And the big name that we didn't
- 3:05hear from was Bryson Dashambo. Well,
- 3:08yesterday, immediately after the
- 3:10episode, when we talked about Bryson
- 3:12specifically, he released a statement,
- 3:15or at least I saw it immediately after
- 3:18the episode, and I want to read it here.
- 3:20Um, it's rather long, but if you haven't
- 3:24seen this, uh, or you know, I think he
- 3:27tweeted this out yesterday.
- 3:30I'm not going to rewrite the last four
- 3:32years, Bryson says. I made a decision I
- 3:35believed in, and I'm grateful for what
- 3:37came with it. Playing in front of fans,
- 3:40new and old, around the world, who
- 3:42rarely got to see the best players at
- 3:44home. The record crowds in Adelaide and
- 3:46Johannesburg will stick with me for the
- 3:48rest of my life. I believed this game
- 3:51could reach more people in more places
- 3:53in a new way. I still believe that, and
- 3:56I gave it everything I had to keep team
- 3:58golf alive. I want to say thank you to
- 4:01the people who believed in this from the
- 4:02start. Uh the staff, the operations, the
- 4:05crews, the caddies, and everyone behind
- 4:07the scenes at Liv Crushers Golf,
- 4:09Crushers GC, uh who bet their careers on
- 4:13this. You gave everything. And thank you
- 4:16to my Crushers teammates, our sponsors,
- 4:18and every fan who came out. I still
- 4:21believe in team golf. It may look
- 4:22different in the future, but I still
- 4:24believe it's essential to growing the
- 4:26game. Arnold Palmer said, "No player is
- 4:28bigger than the game." And I want to
- 4:30acknowledge that along the way. I've
- 4:33said some things that didn't help.
- 4:35Whatever comes next, I'll approach it
- 4:37with humility and respect for the people
- 4:39who carried this game long before me. In
- 4:43December, I'll compete at the Nedbank
- 4:45Golf Challenge Gary Players event in
- 4:47front of fans who made the first my
- 4:49first visit to South Africa
- 4:51unforgettable. Beyond that, I'll go
- 4:53about whatever is next the right way. My
- 4:56passion has been to grow this game.
- 4:58That's still the goal. Thank you for
- 4:59sticking with me. Together, we can all
- 5:01grow this great game we love.
- 5:05Okay, so we're
- 5:07back to growing the game, the grow the
- 5:10game narrative.
- 5:12And this is really interesting to me
- 5:14because I'm just thinking, Bryson had me
- 5:17thinking, you know, if if growing the
- 5:19game really was your motivation, what
- 5:22would you do? And it may be his real
- 5:24motivation. I I don't know. I mean, I
- 5:27think there's a I'd love to grow the
- 5:29game and I'd love to get paid to do it
- 5:31and I understand that he's a
- 5:32professional golfer, but what really
- 5:35does grow the game. And I think this is
- 5:37a really interesting conversation. And
- 5:40it it seems like to me Bryson's idea of
- 5:43growing the game is going to new places.
- 5:47going to places around the world and
- 5:49being there and creating an event that's
- 5:52there, a high-profile event is going to
- 5:54grow the game. Okay, that's a fair
- 5:57assessment.
- 5:59But, you know, what did what do you do?
- 6:02What did you do while you were at Live
- 6:05to grow the game? Well, I wanted to just
- 6:08take a look at what Bryson's schedule
- 6:10has looked like. And one of the things I
- 6:12love about rickr rungood.com
- 6:15is it's a very easy place to go see a
- 6:18schedule across all tours. You know, you
- 6:20can filter those out and see where what
- 6:23events you played in. And it'll show you
- 6:24in one place if you played in an Asian
- 6:27tour event or a live event or anything
- 6:29else. So, I want to share my screen here
- 6:33and just go through what Bryson's
- 6:35schedule look like. We're not looking at
- 6:37results here, but it's live events two
- 6:41majors. Live events major live major
- 6:46live live
- 6:49rider cup. Live live major. Live live
- 6:53major live major live major live major.
- 6:57A bunch of live events. The
- 6:59international series India.
- 7:02Live event live event live event major.
- 7:04Live event live event major. Live live
- 7:06major. Same same deal here. We're now
- 7:08back in 2023. All live events. A major
- 7:11live event major. Live event major. Live
- 7:13event major. PIF Saudi International
- 7:17Asian Tour event. Okay. Uh live event.
- 7:20Live event. Live event major. Major. And
- 7:23now we get to the PGA Tour and he plays
- 7:25in PGA Tour events. Saudi International
- 7:292022 shortly before he did go to live.
- 7:32Um PGA Tour event. PGA Tour event
- 7:34majors. PGA Tour event. Um, we're going
- 7:38to just show a couple more here. PGA
- 7:40Tour event. Major major. Oh, Saudi
- 7:42International
- 7:44again. Major major PGA event. Tour
- 7:47event. Tour event. Tour event. He did
- 7:50play a couple of uh events in Dubai and
- 7:54Abu Dhabi in 2020,
- 7:57but PGA Tour event major. PGA Tour event
- 8:00majors.
- 8:02What's the point of this?
- 8:04Well, you know, once Bryson got to live,
- 8:08he didn't play anything outside of the
- 8:09majors and live and and the other events
- 8:13that he played are
- 8:15contra he's contractually obligated to
- 8:17play. You know, the Nedbank has been
- 8:20around for years and I'm sure that
- 8:22Bryson would have been able to play if
- 8:23he wanted to. Maybe he wasn't. Uh and
- 8:26and if he wasn't then, you know, if he
- 8:30was rejected from playing those, this
- 8:31point is moot. But Liv players played in
- 8:34those kind of events. You can go down to
- 8:36Australia again. Go bring another event
- 8:39there. You know, it doesn't have to be
- 8:40on live. Go play at the Australian Open.
- 8:43They'd love to have you. Um go play in I
- 8:47I don't know. There's all kinds of Asian
- 8:49Tour events you can play in. There's all
- 8:51kinds of European DP World Tour events
- 8:53you can play in all over the world. Um
- 8:57but there seems to be this tie to team
- 8:59golf. And it's clear that team golf
- 9:04doesn't do anything to grow the game.
- 9:06You know, are there really Crushers fans
- 9:08or are there just fans of Bryson? Do you
- 9:11buy the Crushers hat because you're a
- 9:13fan of the Crushers or because you're a
- 9:15fan of Bryson and you saw Bryson play in
- 9:17a major championship wearing a Crushers
- 9:19hat? You know, I don't know. I I don't
- 9:22even know how many people bought
- 9:24Crushers hats, but it's just very
- 9:26strange to me that these events that
- 9:30Bryson played in are just simply live
- 9:32events and not when he's on the PGA
- 9:34Tour, they're just PGA Tour events. Now,
- 9:37I get that, but I don't know that that's
- 9:41that fully supports the doing everything
- 9:44I can to grow the game kind of
- 9:45mentality.
- 9:48So, um, yeah, it's an interesting
- 9:51standpoint.
- 9:53The other thing about growing the game
- 9:55is it's one thing to do it in person,
- 9:58which he played the schedule he was told
- 10:00to play. Um, so, you know, I I don't
- 10:03know how much we're going above and
- 10:05beyond here. um when if you're also
- 10:08looking to grow the game, I I think
- 10:10television audience is a big deal and
- 10:14you're and Liv clearly isn't gathering
- 10:16television ratings. Um so that was a
- 10:20very interesting side piece to that. And
- 10:23now going forward, what's the best
- 10:26opportunity to grow the game? Well, it's
- 10:28playing the PGA Tour. Go play a PGA Tour
- 10:31schedule. Go play a schedule like Rory
- 10:33Mroy. You know, Rory Mroy is playing all
- 10:37over the world and he plays a light PGA
- 10:39Tour schedule and he plays all over the
- 10:41world this time of year. That's great.
- 10:44That's an option. You know, it's a way
- 10:46you can go play in big events that
- 10:49gather television ratings that are
- 10:51high-profile events. Some of them even
- 10:53pay you an appearance fee. That's great.
- 10:56Go do that. But don't tell me that, you
- 11:00know, YouTube is the way to grow the
- 11:02game. Arnold Palmer said no one player
- 11:06is bigger than the game. And he
- 11:09mentioned that right before
- 11:12recognizing that he didn't go about
- 11:14things the right way. And the big
- 11:16question I'm left with is what is the
- 11:18right way for Bryson?
- 11:20And I can't imagine I can't imagine that
- 11:23the right way is playing YouTube golf
- 11:26for a player with the talent Bryson
- 11:29Dambo has. I have to imagine
- 11:33that growing the game, the best way you
- 11:35can grow the game as a professional
- 11:37golfer now is to play in the biggest
- 11:39professional golf events and play in
- 11:41some smaller ones, too. Play in
- 11:44professional events. And as you do that,
- 11:48you generate a a lot of buzz. People
- 11:50aren't going to events because it's a
- 11:52team event or because it's an individual
- 11:54event. They're going to see great golf.
- 11:56They're going to see great golfers play
- 11:58great golf.
- 12:00go play all over the place. And when
- 12:04when you go play in events, you can make
- 12:06a difference. I think that's true. I
- 12:08think Rory makes a difference. That's
- 12:10why he gets appearance fees when he goes
- 12:12and plays in events that offer
- 12:13appearance fees. Go play the PGA Tour.
- 12:16They have huge purses and they compete
- 12:19that, you know, they um they pay out big
- 12:23purses based on performance and they
- 12:26draw big television ratings, the biggest
- 12:28in the game. It's a great opportunity to
- 12:31showcase your skills and showcase the
- 12:34this great game to others. Show people
- 12:37how to hit the ball a longer way. uh you
- 12:41know, show people the different ways you
- 12:44can go about playing like he's done.
- 12:47Uh I I I don't think Bryson has to
- 12:50rewrite the has to reinvent the wheel to
- 12:53grow the game more. All he has to do, in
- 12:56my opinion, to grow the game is play the
- 13:01best golf and the best competition he
- 13:03possibly can. And if you want to do
- 13:05stuff on YouTube, go ahead, do it. I'm
- 13:07not saying that's bad by any means.
- 13:10But it would be a shame to me if YouTube
- 13:12golf was the future for Bryson Dashambo.
- 13:16It'd be a shame, especially after a
- 13:18statement like this. I I I think that
- 13:20would be a a real loss for Bryson and
- 13:24for the game. Um when you make comments
- 13:27like I want to play on a tour that wants
- 13:29me,
- 13:31it's the wrong attitude.
- 13:34You know, the attitude is I want to play
- 13:36I want to achieve greatness. Uh, I want
- 13:38to play the best players in I want to
- 13:40play against the best players in the
- 13:42world. I want to play on the biggest
- 13:43stage possible. That's how you grow the
- 13:45game.
- 13:47So hopefully we don't see another
- 13:51attempt at a
- 13:54team golf league uh coming out of
- 13:56Bryson. I really hope that doesn't
- 13:58happen because it is clear that it's not
- 14:01a draw. It's just clear. So do what you
- 14:05got to do to get back on the PGA tour.
- 14:07go play the DP World Tour this year if
- 14:09you have to. Um, which is a great
- 14:11opportunity to travel the world if
- 14:13that's what you want to do. And hey, as
- 14:15an American, why not help grow the game
- 14:18here as an American? I think that's a
- 14:20great starting place. Grow the game in
- 14:23Dallas,
- 14:25you know, grow the game in Texas where
- 14:27where you're from. Be a great starting
- 14:30place if you ask me. All right, that's
- 14:32enough about Bryson and and Live Golf.
- 14:36Um, I really hope it's enough for
- 14:38everything. Although, we do have to
- 14:39track where these players end up and
- 14:41what the PGA Tour does. Uh, and if
- 14:44they're going to be coming back to the
- 14:45PGA Tour in 27, waiting until 2028.
- 14:49Very interesting times in the world of
- 14:52professional golf. All right, now it's
- 14:54time to get into the uh Austin
- 14:57Championship, and I'm really looking
- 15:00forward to this. I want to I want to get
- 15:02right into it. So, we're going to go
- 15:03over to the notebook. This notebook is
- 15:06brief. Um, but I think there's some
- 15:09pretty good stuff in here. If you're
- 15:10just watching for the first time, the
- 15:12notebook is where we go over course
- 15:14facts, course stats, winning trends,
- 15:17course history, best performers, comp
- 15:19courses. Now, of course, this is the
- 15:21first time that we've seen uh Omni
- 15:23Barton Creek and the Fazio Canyons golf
- 15:26course where we'll be playing this week.
- 15:28So, we don't have winning trends. We
- 15:30don't have course history, best
- 15:31performers, and we don't have comp
- 15:32courses. We don't have course stats, but
- 15:35we have some facts, and we're going to
- 15:36summize what we can to get the best feel
- 15:41for what this tournament is going to
- 15:43look like. We're going to do the best we
- 15:45can with the information that we have.
- 15:47And I did quite a bit of research
- 15:49getting ready for this. So, here are
- 15:52some general facts. This is a par 72,
- 15:557,451
- 15:57yards. It was built in 1999 and
- 16:00renovated again in 2022 by Tom Foio. As
- 16:04you can imagine, it's a golf course that
- 16:06winds through the Texas Hill Country, if
- 16:09you will. Uh in the low areas, there's a
- 16:11really cool rocky creek uh that winds
- 16:15through this golf course. It's a part of
- 16:16the 18th hole. It guards some of these
- 16:19greens immediately, which is pretty
- 16:22cool. Some of the other facts not listed
- 16:25here. The fairways are Bermuda Fairways,
- 16:28419 Bermuda Fairways, and the greens are
- 16:31miniverty, Bermuda greens. So, we are
- 16:33looking at Bermuda greens. I think
- 16:36minivery Bermuda is one of the best
- 16:37surfaces you can putt on. Um, but when
- 16:40we do our research and our modeling, we
- 16:42will definitely incorporate Bermuda
- 16:44greens. All right. Now, let's uh let's
- 16:46move along here. The this is what the
- 16:49scorecard looks like. And I think this
- 16:51is a pretty interesting scorecard. You
- 16:53see 7451 and it it looks like a big
- 16:56number. It is a par 72. This is not an
- 17:00overly long golf course. Okay. On the
- 17:02front nine you have the par threes are
- 17:06175 and 215. Um not exceptionally long.
- 17:11The par fives are 587 and 591. That's on
- 17:14the longer side. Still reachable in all
- 17:17likelihood but uh definitely on the uh
- 17:20longer side. the par the longest par4 on
- 17:23the front nine is number nine which is
- 17:25478.
- 17:27So I I think that's um you know you have
- 17:29a lot of mid-range shorter par4s. Number
- 17:33four is 344.
- 17:35Uh one and two are 400 and 405.
- 17:38Uh so there's six is 448. You know
- 17:42that's not overly long by any means. on
- 17:44the back nine. Number 10 is So if you
- 17:47start at number one, you got
- 17:48back-to-back long par4s in nine and 10,
- 17:51478 and 492. 10 is the longest par4 on
- 17:55the golf course at 492. But on the back
- 17:58nine, the par 3es definitely get longer.
- 18:00228 at number 11, 230 at number 17. Um
- 18:05the parfs are shorter on the other hand.
- 18:0814 is 464, 18 is 562. Those will
- 18:12definitely be reachable.
- 18:14Um, and you have 13, which is 387. I
- 18:20think they could move the TE's up and
- 18:21make that one drivable. It's um, that
- 18:24looks like a pretty cool hole. It's a
- 18:26little dog leg to the left and uh, the
- 18:28left side is serious trouble. And you
- 18:31can kind of decide how far you're going
- 18:33to, you know, how much you're going to
- 18:34take on, how far you're going to move it
- 18:36up up the fairway, which is wide. But
- 18:40you got to take a little risk. you got
- 18:41to take on a little risk to get it close
- 18:43to the green and depending on the tea
- 18:45location that one may be drivable. All
- 18:48right, let's move on to some of the key
- 18:50characteristics of Fazio designs. Um,
- 18:53this is it's very often you see some
- 18:56dramatic backdrops.
- 18:58Fazio courses seem to be in beautiful
- 19:01areas. He always seems to have a
- 19:03gorgeous, stunning at times piece of
- 19:05property. you see larger undulating
- 19:09greens and this golf course being in the
- 19:12Hill Country, I would imagine we're
- 19:13going to see quite a few slopes on these
- 19:16greens. The bunkers are often dramatic
- 19:19looking. You see big flashface bunkers,
- 19:21so they really stand out whether you're
- 19:24on the tea, uh they they frame the
- 19:26fairway nicely and into the greens, they
- 19:28frame the uh greens nicely as well, and
- 19:31they definitely give an appearance of
- 19:34great depth. Uh so the flash bunkering
- 19:37that Fosio uses I find to be beautiful.
- 19:40Um generally following the natural
- 19:43layout of the property it feels very
- 19:45natural although he does use a lot of
- 19:48equipment. Uh and and they tend to be
- 19:51you know a lot of the reports on Fazio
- 19:53courses are there like budgetless
- 19:55designs. um they are built golf courses
- 19:58that are built, but it it still does
- 20:01flow with the natural property. Uh but
- 20:04it takes a lot to build the bunkers the
- 20:06way he does and and he definitely is
- 20:08moving a lot of turf. Uh but it it does
- 20:11have a natural feel to it in my opinion.
- 20:14Fairways tend to be generous, but
- 20:16there's demanding visuals, so it they're
- 20:19they're often easier than they appear
- 20:22and they appear to be pretty
- 20:23challenging. And and looking at this
- 20:25golf course on the maps, it does look
- 20:27like there's some width to the fairways.
- 20:30Not like we saw last week. You know,
- 20:32you're not looking at 80 yard fairways,
- 20:34but there's space. Definitely space.
- 20:36There are some areas where the bunkers
- 20:38will pinch down and players are not
- 20:40going to be able to hit driver on every
- 20:42hole. It's not a bombs away kind of golf
- 20:44course. There'll be some thought process
- 20:46on the TE's. And given the length, the
- 20:49commonality of these mid-range par4s,
- 20:52there's going to be some opportunities
- 20:54to play this golf course in in a number
- 20:57of different ways. Uh it it doesn't seem
- 21:00like there's a huge advantage to bombing
- 21:02it. You know, it's not one of those
- 21:05northeast restorations where there's no
- 21:08trees and the bunkers are at 310. If you
- 21:11can fly at 310, it opens up like crazy.
- 21:14That doesn't seem to be the case here.
- 21:16seems like it does narrow down in some
- 21:18areas and being on, you know, winding
- 21:22through these hills, there are some
- 21:24pretty significant falloffs into trees,
- 21:26but there's plenty of room to hit it.
- 21:28It's just a matter of how you're going
- 21:29to navigate these bunkers. Um, so it
- 21:33very interesting what what Fazio does
- 21:35with his designs. Here are some of the
- 21:37notable courses. Oh, this looks like the
- 21:40exact same slide. Let me go through this
- 21:42one more time. These are some notable
- 21:44courses. Uh, we got Shadow Creek, Caves
- 21:48Valley. We've seen these on uh on the
- 21:50PGA tour before. Wade Hampton, which is
- 21:53in North Carolina, stunning looking golf
- 21:56course. Hudson National, which I've
- 21:59played, stunning golf course. Uh, I
- 22:02mean, talk about dramatic backdrops.
- 22:04This is it's dramatic and the bunkering
- 22:07is beautiful, but it's playable. Lake
- 22:10Nona down there in Florida. We've seen a
- 22:12couple times in, you know,
- 22:16what did we used to see? Lake Nona and
- 22:19Albany and Isleworth used to play a
- 22:22match. We kind of rotate around. So Lake
- 22:24Nona is another Fazio golf course. Of
- 22:27course, there's many more and he's had
- 22:29his hand in a lot of redos like Quail
- 22:31Hollow, but these are some of the
- 22:33notable original designs that we could
- 22:36pay attention to. Now, uh, we, this is
- 22:41kind of a tricky thing. I can't get this
- 22:43into the model specifically.
- 22:46Oh, and and that seemed to not move on
- 22:48to the next slide. Um, I I couldn't get
- 22:51this into the model specifically. So, I
- 22:54just wanted to take a look in the
- 22:56notebook at the best Fazio design
- 22:58players since 2020. Now, these aren't
- 23:02typically mainstay courses, although
- 23:05included in this are some of his major
- 23:08redoss. Um, but these are the best
- 23:11players in this field on Fazio design
- 23:13golf courses since 2020. Some of them
- 23:16only have one start, like Tommy
- 23:18Morrison, who leads the way here. Um, he
- 23:21has one start. It's a win. It was on the
- 23:22Cornferry tour. Ben James number two.
- 23:26Johnny Kefir number three. Miles
- 23:29Russell. Oh, Ben James also withdrew.
- 23:33Um, I believe. Let me let me just verify
- 23:37something here really quickly.
- 23:40Uh, I I meant to bring this up before
- 23:42the show started, but um, we're going to
- 23:46go to the Austin Championship. I just
- 23:48want to check this. So, Denny McCarthy
- 23:51withdrew, Matt Wallace withdrew, which
- 23:54got Ben Silverman in. Alvaro Ortiz got
- 23:58in with a top 10 finish. Uh Harry Hall
- 24:02withdrew. That all had Silverman in.
- 24:05Then Silverman withdrew on Monday. David
- 24:08Skins got in. Ben James withdrew on
- 24:11Monday. Jimmy Stanger got in. So Ben
- 24:13James is out. Michael Kim withdrew. Got
- 24:16Paul Peterson in. Tom Hogy withdrew. Ben
- 24:19Martin got in as a result. And Bo
- 24:22Hustler withdrew, which got Tyler Duncan
- 24:25in. Uh, so those are the field updates
- 24:28and Ben James just kind of threw me off
- 24:30because I thought I saw his name. Um,
- 24:32Miles Russell number four, again,
- 24:35limited limited sample size here. AJ
- 24:37Uert number five. Blades Brown number
- 24:40six, he's still playing. He has not
- 24:43withdrawn. Austin Ecro number seven,
- 24:46Zack Bosshu number eight, Max Grazerman
- 24:49number nine, Cole Sherwood coming in at
- 24:52number 10.
- 24:54All right. So, we're going to um we are
- 24:57going to pay attention to that. We want
- 25:00to pay just kind of keep that in mind,
- 25:02but we're now going to get into what
- 25:05this actual model looks like. So, I'm
- 25:07going to go back to just a a full image
- 25:10of me here and I'm going to get out of
- 25:13this full screen. And now we'll work
- 25:16over here. And now I can share my
- 25:19screen. So, this is the model that I
- 25:22created. Uh again, if you're a Patreon
- 25:25member, a paid Patreon member, I'll send
- 25:28you this full model. And you can see I
- 25:31I'm gonna wait. I'm not going to send it
- 25:34right away. I'll probably send it
- 25:35tomorrow because I just want to make
- 25:37sure that we get the field updates
- 25:40loaded in here. And you know, if I miss
- 25:42one, I apologize. But I'll send you this
- 25:45whole model. If you're in the Patreon, I
- 25:47I'll post these each and every week. And
- 25:49remember, last week's model had an
- 25:52extremely strong performance. Of the top
- 25:5515 players in the model, 13 of them
- 25:57finished in the top 25. And number one
- 26:00and two in the model was uh Ben James
- 26:03and Blades Brown. And they were in a
- 26:06playoff together. I think it did pretty
- 26:08well. It also picked up on guys like
- 26:10Alvaro Ortiz, who by the way leads this
- 26:14model at 7,300. He's first in the model.
- 26:17Blades Brown number two, Chris Kirk
- 26:19number three, Sheamus Power number four,
- 26:22Trace Crowe number five, Andrew Novak
- 26:26number six, Doug Gim number seven,
- 26:28Austin Smotherman and Christian
- 26:30Bazidenhout are eight and nine and Ben
- 26:33Kohl's is number 10 in the model. Uh I
- 26:36was looking at basically the the general
- 26:38concept here is we don't have a lot of
- 26:41information. This is a lot of guess.
- 26:43This is a very generic barebones kind of
- 26:47model, but it does have a couple
- 26:49specific aspects.
- 26:52So, I took strokes gain approach over
- 26:54your last 24 rounds. That's basically
- 26:56how you've done in the fall. Um, I
- 26:59weighted that pretty heavily, 15%.
- 27:02Strokes gain putting over your last 12
- 27:04rounds. I think we're going to see quite
- 27:05a few birdies out here. I you know I I
- 27:08don't think it's going to be as easy as
- 27:10we saw in Mexico, but I still think
- 27:13they're going to go pretty low on this
- 27:15golf course. Uh so I have strokes game
- 27:18putting over your last 12 weighted at
- 27:1910%. Ta green over your last 36 rounds
- 27:24weighted at 10%. And I really wanted to
- 27:27put an emphasis on recent form given
- 27:30that we don't know uh anything. We we
- 27:33really don't know much about this golf
- 27:34course and we have never seen it played
- 27:36in competition. We have no data to back
- 27:39up any of our um any of our thoughts. I
- 27:42wanted recent form to play a big role.
- 27:44So I took strokes gain total over your
- 27:46last 24 rounds. Again, that's basically
- 27:48how you've done this fall and um I
- 27:52weighted that at 20%. So heavy heavy
- 27:55weight on recent form here in this
- 27:58model. Um, and then I went through the
- 28:01normal distribution stuff. How often are
- 28:03you gaining two or more strokes
- 28:05approaching the green? Uh, I did that at
- 28:085%. How often are you gaining three or
- 28:11more strokes approaching the green? I
- 28:12did that at 5%. I did the same with
- 28:15putting two or more strokes, three or
- 28:17more strokes. And that for all four of
- 28:19those, they're at 5%. and over your last
- 28:22100 rounds. Um, I look, I added good
- 28:26drive percentage over your last 36
- 28:29rounds at 5%.
- 28:31Um, I think this is
- 28:34this is an interesting one because it
- 28:37the golf course look there's plenty of
- 28:39space there. While the fairways, many of
- 28:42them are in that 30 yard wide
- 28:44neighborhood, there's still space beyond
- 28:46that. So, the driving corridors are wide
- 28:49enough, but big misses are penalized in
- 28:51a great way from the looks of it. You
- 28:53know, it looks like heavy trees and
- 28:55shrubs and rocks. Uh you can hit it down
- 28:58into some really low areas that are
- 29:00problematic. Um so, you you want to keep
- 29:03it within
- 29:05the bound the boundaries similar to last
- 29:08week. So, I just took good drive
- 29:09percentage a very small increment there.
- 29:13I don't think this is a driving accuracy
- 29:15course. I don't think it's a driving
- 29:17distance course. I think it's a penalty
- 29:19avoidance course off the tee. So I I
- 29:22approach that in two ways. One is the T
- 29:25green metric which is going to
- 29:27incorporate some driving. Another is the
- 29:29good drive percentage aspect which I
- 29:32didn't put a huge weight on because I do
- 29:34think there's an opportunity to hit less
- 29:37than driver around this golf course. Um
- 29:39but it's basically a penalty avoidance.
- 29:42Uh then I took opportunities over your
- 29:45last 24 rounds. Weighted that at 10.
- 29:47That's how many times do you hit it
- 29:49inside of 15 feet and strokes gain
- 29:52Bermuda which is putting on Bermuda
- 29:55greens. Last 50 rounds I weighted that
- 29:58at 10. So this the reason I say this is
- 30:01pretty bare bones is it's a pretty
- 30:03strong emphasis on approach play and a
- 30:05pretty strong emphasis on putting um you
- 30:09know specifically this fall. And then
- 30:11there's a heavy recent form bias here as
- 30:13well. Uh so that's kind of the general
- 30:16model. It is this is as close to if I
- 30:20had no information about a golf course,
- 30:22how would I model it out? Pretty similar
- 30:24to this. Um and and those are the guys
- 30:28that we have up there in the top 10. So
- 30:31before we get to the grid, which we do
- 30:34have a a grid today. I'm looking forward
- 30:36to that. I wanted to just go through
- 30:38some of the names that stood out to me
- 30:40from a DFS standpoint. Um, so one of
- 30:43them in the 9K range, we got Doug Gim
- 30:46here at 9800. I'm going to uh click that
- 30:49and we'll show you his profile because
- 30:52Doug Gim is very impressive to me. Um,
- 30:56you see he's he's definitely a pretty
- 30:58heavy favorite. He's like the second
- 31:00favorite as I was looking earlier this
- 31:02afternoon. He's at 1650, 9,800 on
- 31:06DraftKings. Um, but when we we take a
- 31:08look at his attributes, distance, not a
- 31:11huge advantage. Everything else in the
- 31:13TO green categories, he is well above
- 31:16average. You know, he's exceptional with
- 31:18greens of regulation. Um, pretty good
- 31:21strokes gain off the tea as well. He's
- 31:23in the 94th percentile in both of those.
- 31:26uh 80 80th percentile approaching the
- 31:29green, you know, so he hits a lot of
- 31:31greens and he gains a fair number of
- 31:34strokes. The the weakest aspect of his
- 31:36game is putting which is still slightly
- 31:38above average and there'll be more on
- 31:41that later. Um so let let's go up, you
- 31:44know, you can see this pie chart here.
- 31:46It's pretty big. This is a pretty
- 31:48complete player, especially when you
- 31:51look at we'll go over to his results and
- 31:56Whoops. And we'll take a look at what
- 31:58he's done on the Greens lately because
- 32:01this is really impressive and why I'm
- 32:04excited about Doug Gim every event this
- 32:07fall. So, this is the Builtmore
- 32:09Championship on he's played four events.
- 32:11He's gained strokes putting in all four.
- 32:14Twice he's gained over two strokes for
- 32:16the week. Um, but all four have been
- 32:18positive and the results have followed.
- 32:21T17, second, T17, T6.
- 32:25This is a Doug Gims become a very
- 32:28reliable player. Uh, he's also gained
- 32:31strokes approaching the green in all
- 32:33four. On three occasions, he's gained
- 32:35over three strokes approaching the
- 32:36green. Um, he's hit a fair number of
- 32:40fairways as well. So, I I do expect Doug
- 32:43Gim to be a part of the conversation. I
- 32:45I don't know how excited I really am
- 32:49with him in the outright market or the
- 32:51top 20 market. He's kind of priced for
- 32:53this, but I think he makes a lot of
- 32:55sense from a DFS standpoint. So, I love
- 32:58Doug Gim there. Um, next on the list is
- 33:03we'll switch over here to Chris Kirk,
- 33:05who's also in the $9,000 range. And
- 33:08Chris Kirk is number three in the model.
- 33:13I have one concern
- 33:16looking at him in general putting real
- 33:18weakness for him. Everything else is
- 33:20above average and the strength is his
- 33:23iron play. So he's in the 95th
- 33:25percentile when it comes to iron play.
- 33:28Um you know he's not an overly long
- 33:30driver so his off the tea is his off the
- 33:33tea game is pretty average. And that is
- 33:35actually the concern for me when it
- 33:39comes to Chris Kirk. He lost three
- 33:41strokes off the tea last week. Really
- 33:43wide fairways. He still hit 89% of his
- 33:46fairways for the week, but some costly
- 33:49misses played his way out of the
- 33:51tournament. Had a chance to win, ends up
- 33:53finishing T12 because of the driver,
- 33:55that gives me a little concern. But if
- 33:58Chris Kirk can navigate his way around
- 34:00this golf course and just simply get it
- 34:02in play off the T, this is a redhot
- 34:06player with his irons right now. gained
- 34:08eight strokes last week. 7.99, 1.83 at
- 34:13the Butterfield Bermuda Championship,
- 34:154.19 at the Bank of Utah Championship,
- 34:18and in Asheville at the Builtmore, he
- 34:21gained five strokes approaching the
- 34:23green. This is elite. And in his last
- 34:26two, he's gained strokes putting as
- 34:27well. So, I'm very high on uh Chris
- 34:31Kirk, and the model is too. In fact, we
- 34:35take a look at um
- 34:38yeah, that was the other thing. So, he's
- 34:40just okay putting on Bermuda. Uh he's
- 34:43about a zero putter on Bermuda according
- 34:45to the model.
- 34:47So, um but Chris Kirk number three in
- 34:51the model coming in at 9,400 on
- 34:53DraftKings. I I think he makes a ton of
- 34:56sense and he really gave it a good run
- 34:59last week.
- 35:00One other guy I wanted to pay attention
- 35:03to from a DFS perspective is Austin
- 35:06Smotherman. Okay, he's at 9,100.
- 35:10Model has him at number eight. So I'll
- 35:14share the screen here. He's at 40 to1.
- 35:19Austin Smotherin's coming off
- 35:20backto-back wins. He's at 40 to1. Can't
- 35:23believe that. Look at this G. This game
- 35:26is so complete from a T green
- 35:28perspective. 98th percentile approaching
- 35:32the green in his last 100 rounds.
- 35:36Um the weakness is around the green play
- 35:39and putting. But wait till you see what
- 35:41he's done recently. Um total is above
- 35:44average. He's really pulled down by the
- 35:46short game and the putting. You can see
- 35:48that in his pie chart here as well.
- 35:50These two areas are just weak.
- 35:52everything else is great, but
- 35:55they're getting better and that's the
- 35:57really encouraging part for me. So, we
- 36:00know that Austin Smotherman has a very
- 36:02solid um you know, Ted Green game, but
- 36:06look what he's done putting in his last
- 36:08three events. He's gained three strokes
- 36:09putting. He's never done that before in
- 36:11his career. And I think he's really on
- 36:13to something with the flat stick. And it
- 36:16raises his ceiling all the way to
- 36:18winning. That's why he's won his last
- 36:19two starts. So, it does feel a little
- 36:23bit like chasing for me right now. Like
- 36:25I'm I'm chasing a guy coming off of
- 36:27back-to-back wins, but I I listen to him
- 36:30speak and just like I'm just doing what
- 36:32I'm doing. I'm doing what I'm doing. I'm
- 36:34getting better. And he definitely is.
- 36:38This is every event this fall has been a
- 36:41very strong performance off the tea.
- 36:42Gain at least two strokes off the tea
- 36:45and approaching the green in all three
- 36:47fall events. and the putting is
- 36:51extraordinary. So, I think at 9100,
- 36:54Austin Smotherman makes a ton of sense
- 36:58in in DFS.
- 37:00All right, I want to get down to some of
- 37:02the 8K options. Uh, and one of my
- 37:06favorites,
- 37:07one of my favorites in this whole field
- 37:10is Sheamus Power. And I shouldn't say
- 37:12that he's because he's really the
- 37:15favorite of the model. He's number four
- 37:17in the model and
- 37:20I I'll share his screen here. He's 8,900
- 37:23on DraftKings and 43 to1 to win. That's
- 37:27just uh incredible stuff. And again,
- 37:30he's average or above average in every
- 37:32area. So, I I don't think there's any
- 37:36real concerns. He doesn't quite have the
- 37:38ceiling. You know, only putting and
- 37:42birdie or better percentage is he in the
- 37:4490th percentile. not a bad place to be.
- 37:47His driving accuracy is 83rd percentile,
- 37:5171st percentile in greens of regulation.
- 37:54There's no red flags when you look at
- 37:57Sheamus Power from a um wide view. When
- 38:01we look at his recent results, things
- 38:04start to look a whole lot better. First
- 38:06of all, every event this fall, he has he
- 38:09has three top 10s in four events this
- 38:11fall and four top 25s. T-21 at the Bank
- 38:15of Utah is his worst finish. He shot 20
- 38:18under, 17 under, 16 under, 18 under.
- 38:21This guy's just playing great golf. Um,
- 38:24approaching the green. He's gained three
- 38:26or more strokes approaching the green in
- 38:28three out of the four events in the
- 38:30fall. And he's gained over 2.9 strokes
- 38:33putting in all four events as well. It's
- 38:37just been stellar play from Sheamus
- 38:39Power. Yet, he's in the $8,000 range.
- 38:42So, I I think a very wise and excellent
- 38:45play. Um, model loves them and I do,
- 38:50too.
- 38:51All right, next on the list, we're going
- 38:53down a little bit here, down to 14th in
- 38:56the model. Uh, and still in the 8K range
- 39:00when it comes to the DFS picks. And this
- 39:02is Zack Bosshu. So, we'll go ahead and
- 39:05share his screen. Yeah, 8,800. He's 39
- 39:08to1 to win. I don't love that in the
- 39:10outright market, but I certainly like it
- 39:12in DFS.
- 39:14Similar story here. Very average in all
- 39:17these categories. Um, but a very good
- 39:20approach player. 82nd percentile
- 39:22approaching the green. 90th percentile
- 39:25in birdie or better percentage. Um, I I
- 39:28think that goes a long way as well. No
- 39:32glaring weaknesses in the pie chart.
- 39:35Maybe strokes gained off the tea is a
- 39:37little bit of a concern.
- 39:40Uh let's look at the recent form for
- 39:43Zach Bosshu.
- 39:45Similar story for him. Although he's
- 39:47played five events in the fall, he's
- 39:50gained strokes off the tea in four of
- 39:52them. Gained strokes approaching the
- 39:53green in all of them.
- 39:56Uh when it comes to the putting, he had
- 39:58a great putting week at the Bay Current
- 40:00when he finished tied ninth, but he's
- 40:03struggled a little bit in the last two.
- 40:05Okay, he's lost seven strokes combined
- 40:08in his last two events. Those were both
- 40:10on past Palum Greens.
- 40:13So, is he going to lose three or four
- 40:15strokes putting again? Um, well, I
- 40:18certainly hope not, but let's just go
- 40:20ahead and check out the radar page and
- 40:23we'll look at his putting. And this
- 40:27breaks it down by surface. Pass Palum,
- 40:30he actually putts pretty well, but has
- 40:31struggled. Bermuda's fine. He's fine on
- 40:34Bermuda. Pana is fine. So, I I just
- 40:37think it's unlikely that we see Zach
- 40:40Bosshu lose three strokes putting again.
- 40:43Uh I think the surface change in this
- 40:45case is a very good thing. Uh heading to
- 40:48Texas. I I think it's going to go a long
- 40:51way. And I think he's from Oklahoma.
- 40:53He's he's born in Virginia.
- 40:55He resides in Oklahoma. He lives in
- 40:58Edmund, Oklahoma. Now heading down to
- 41:00Austin, Texas. Perhaps comfortable here.
- 41:04So, he'll be taking on the Bermuda
- 41:05Greens this week, and I I like it. Um,
- 41:09all right, let's move to the 7K range.
- 41:12Number one in the model is Alvaro Ortiz.
- 41:15He's 7,300 on DraftKings. We got to take
- 41:18a look at that. Um, so we will here. And
- 41:23here we go. 7,300. 76 to1 to win. I just
- 41:27want to take a look at this because, uh,
- 41:30he is number one in the model. Now
- 41:33everything seems to be pretty good from
- 41:35a percentage standpoint except his off
- 41:38strokes gained off the tea 31st
- 41:40percentile. It's the biggest weakness of
- 41:42his game.
- 41:45What has happened recently with Alvaro
- 41:48Ortiz? He's struggled off the tea a
- 41:50little bit on some I mean Vidanta
- 41:52worldwide fairway 75% hit 94% of the
- 41:56fairways last week. First time he gained
- 41:58strokes off the tea. He's not very long
- 42:03and you know I I think he's fairly
- 42:06accurate but
- 42:08not overly accurate. So I worry a little
- 42:12bit about the driving game. It is good
- 42:14to see that he's short. He So he he
- 42:16struggles with strokes gained off the
- 42:18tea because he doesn't hit it very far.
- 42:21But the the big concern to me, I know
- 42:25the model got him spot on last week,
- 42:28but it's in he's in Mexico, his home
- 42:31country. He just finished tied 34th. He
- 42:34wants to have a big week. He gets in
- 42:37this week because of a top 10 finish.
- 42:40He does a lot of his work with short
- 42:43game. you sees I mean in in two of the
- 42:47last four events he's gained over six
- 42:49strokes around the greens.
- 42:53It's great. It just feels very risky to
- 42:55me. Uh I mean that's making up a large
- 42:58majority of his te to green work. Last
- 43:01week he gained 11 strokes to green. More
- 43:03than half came from short game alone.
- 43:07Putting's pretty good for him as well,
- 43:09but this he he's number one in the
- 43:11model, but it feels very risky to me.
- 43:14So, I don't really
- 43:17I mean, I think in a DFS perspective,
- 43:19you could take a chance on Alvaro Ortiz
- 43:21if ownership is low. Um, but this
- 43:24doesn't this doesn't smell right to me.
- 43:26I'm I'm a little that feels like a trap.
- 43:29So, I go down to Trace Crow, who's
- 43:33number seven in the model. Um, number
- 43:36five in the model, excuse me. And I
- 43:38think Trace Crow makes a lot more sense
- 43:41than Alvaro Ortiz. Okay, I'm going to go
- 43:43right to his uh right to Trace Crow's
- 43:46results. And again, he's struggled off
- 43:50the tea a little bit as well. He's
- 43:52struggled with some driving accuracy. My
- 43:54hope is that he can get it in play. What
- 43:56I really like is these spike weeks
- 43:58approaching the green. I picked up over
- 44:01five in Mexico at the Vidant World. uh
- 44:04and over 10 in Utah. That goes a long
- 44:08way. Uh he also can spike with the
- 44:10putter. Seven strokes at Bonanta World
- 44:14where he finished tied 11th. Gained five
- 44:16strokes putting in Bermuda. Guess what
- 44:19the greens were in Bermuda? Bermuda
- 44:21greens. Although they are different. So,
- 44:23let's just go over here to his radar
- 44:25page. We'll take a look at the uh
- 44:28putting for Trace Crow. Check out how he
- 44:32does on various surfaces and Bermuda
- 44:35pretty good. Pass Palum is best.
- 44:37Bermuda's pretty good as well. So, I'm
- 44:40I'm comfortable with that. We go to
- 44:42Pana. Stay away from Trace Crow.
- 44:45So, um he definitely Trace Crow
- 44:48definitely works. He's in the 7K range.
- 44:50Ortiz is number one in the model. I
- 44:52don't really like it. Zack Blair and
- 44:54Luke Clanton I'm comfortable going back
- 44:56with. Um I I just love Zack Blair's
- 45:00game. He's number 16 in the model. I'm
- 45:03lukewarm on that. Luke Clanton, um, you
- 45:07know, finished tied 33rd last week. I
- 45:09thought last week was a better fit, but
- 45:11I'm willing to stay on track with him.
- 45:13His approach play has been excellent.
- 45:16Uh, he's number 13 in the model.
- 45:19Then we get to the 6K range, and I just
- 45:23want to mention a couple of these guys.
- 45:24The top performers,
- 45:26let's just share this. the top 6K
- 45:29performers in the model. We got to
- 45:32scroll down a little bit here. Uh and we
- 45:35go to where are we? Okay, we got to go
- 45:38to number 23. Number 23, Cole Sherwood.
- 45:41He's 6800
- 45:43uh on DraftKings.
- 45:45The reason I'm intrigued by that is
- 45:48looking back at our best Fazio design
- 45:51players since 2020, Cole Sherwood was
- 45:54number 10. A lot of his work has been on
- 45:56the corn ferry tour. Um, but when you
- 45:59look through this model, he performs
- 46:02pretty well in a lot of these areas.
- 46:04Performs well on bent grass greens,
- 46:06which I like. Uh, the good drive
- 46:08percentage is very high. Rates out very
- 46:11well in that. Decent when it comes to
- 46:14opportunities. He doesn't quite spike
- 46:17very often. That that's the that's why
- 46:20Cole Sherwood's down a little bit at
- 46:2223rd in this model.
- 46:24putting can be a concern, you know, over
- 46:27his last 12 it has, but he's very good
- 46:28on Bermuda. So, I like that. Um, so I
- 46:32I'm I'm going to trust the model here in
- 46:34the 6K range, and I'm going to go with
- 46:35Cole Sherwood, who's number 23. I'm also
- 46:38going to go with Hayden Springer, who's
- 46:40number 26. Those are the two best
- 46:42options in the model. The model doesn't
- 46:45really like the 6K guys. Um, so I'm just
- 46:48going to go with the top two in large
- 46:50part because it performs so well.
- 46:52They're the only two 6K guys in the top
- 46:5430, but I think there's an there's an
- 46:57opportunity to eliminate the 6K range. I
- 46:59I don't think you have to go with the
- 47:01Kovven uh or a Blades Brown up top. I
- 47:05think you can drop down a little bit in
- 47:07the 9K and go with a Doug Gim or a Kirk
- 47:10or a Smotherman. Um, you can you can mix
- 47:13in a Sheamus Power uh and and then hit
- 47:17on some 7K guys, take a chance on a
- 47:19Trace Crow or a Luke Clanton and I think
- 47:22it's going to work out great. Uh, so I'm
- 47:25not too worried about the 6K range, but
- 47:27it is Cole Sherwood and Hayden Springer
- 47:30according to the model. And by the way,
- 47:32I you know, I I went through and looked
- 47:34at these all these players by hand and
- 47:36it's not very attractive down there.
- 47:38Even Sherwood and Hayden Springer, I'm
- 47:40like, h, no, this is okay, I guess. Um,
- 47:44so in that case, we'll trust the
- 47:47computer.
- 47:49All right, we got just a couple more
- 47:51things to get to here. Um, really one
- 47:55more thing to get to, and it's the grid.
- 47:57So, I'm going to
- 48:00make that a pres I'm going to present
- 48:02that and bring up the grid. Okay, so if
- 48:05you haven't watched before, we provide
- 48:07some matchups. would provide some
- 48:08finishing positions and some outrights.
- 48:12I have room in the grid for three of
- 48:14each. I do that sometimes, but I'm not
- 48:18just going to fill out three matchups if
- 48:21I don't like them. I'm not going to fill
- 48:23out three outrights if I don't like
- 48:25them. Um, you know, last week I gave out
- 48:28a lot of top 20s. I like top 20s for
- 48:31finishing positions, especially in these
- 48:34fall events. So, I have three of those.
- 48:36There's probably I'm open to a lot more
- 48:39players in that category. Um, but these
- 48:41are the three I felt really good about.
- 48:44So, let's start with the matchups. We
- 48:45got Ben Kohl's over Pearson Cudy at
- 48:48minus 105. I love Ben Kohl's game. Um, I
- 48:53I I didn't love the top 20 number. I
- 48:57think he kind of teeters right on that
- 48:59brink. I wouldn't be surp tied 25th last
- 49:02week. He's got a couple tie 21sts, but
- 49:05he's a top 25 machine.
- 49:08You're not going to get him at a decent
- 49:10price in a top 30 market, which I would
- 49:13almost guarantee. So, you got to take
- 49:15the chance on the top 20. I I love a
- 49:18reliable ball striker in a category like
- 49:21this. Ben Kohl's fits that mold. Pearson
- 49:24Cudy has played some pretty good golf.
- 49:27It's a little spotty and I he's very
- 49:29boomer bust. So, you know, we're we
- 49:32could get Pearson Cudy finishing third
- 49:35in this event. Um, but I'm taking the
- 49:37safe play here with Ben Kohl's. Ben
- 49:39Kohl's is a safe play. Pearson Cud is
- 49:42the much more volatile play. I know he
- 49:44played at Texas Hookham Horns. Uh, Texas
- 49:47is in Austin. I'm sure he's played here
- 49:49a lot, but I'm going the reliable. You
- 49:53know, this is like, can Pearson Cody
- 49:54beat old man par in Ben Kohl's? And and
- 49:58Kohl's is the dog in this one. So, I'm
- 50:00going Coals there. Finishing positions,
- 50:03we talked about Sheamus Power already.
- 50:05You can get Sheamus Power, who is number
- 50:08four in my model at plus 160 for a top
- 50:1220. Sign me up all day. Um, don't even
- 50:15need to go into the outright market for
- 50:17Sheamus Power. I'll take the top 20 and
- 50:20run. So, I love that. Uh, feel very
- 50:23confident in that. Trace Crow is at plus
- 50:26230 for a top 20 finish.
- 50:30The model has him um the model has Trace
- 50:34Crow number five.
- 50:36I'll take him for a top 20 all day. I I
- 50:41don't think Trace Crow has what it takes
- 50:44to win this week. Maybe he proves me
- 50:46wrong. Um I I think it's a little
- 50:49aggressive to go in the outright market
- 50:51for him, but I definitely think a good
- 50:53week is on the horizon here. Model's
- 50:55been loving him the last couple of
- 50:57weeks. He had a couple tough rounds on
- 50:59the weekend, you know, last weekend. Um,
- 51:02but top 20 fits. It's It's not a home
- 51:06run. Sheamus Power is a home run. Trace
- 51:08Crow's not, but you get better a better
- 51:11number on it. Chris Kirk is also, I
- 51:14would say, a pretty close to a home run.
- 51:17We'll see what happens off the tea. I
- 51:20believe he can figure out a way to get
- 51:21the ball in play around this golf
- 51:23course. I'm a little worried about the
- 51:26drive in here, but you get Chris Kirk
- 51:28who's number three in the model at plus
- 51:31125 for a top 20. That makes a whole lot
- 51:33of sense to me. Um, now, so let's take a
- 51:37look at some of these outrights here.
- 51:39Austin Smotherman, I mentioned already,
- 51:41is at 40 to1 and he's coming off at
- 51:44back-toback wins. I mean, let's just
- 51:46keep it rolling. Could he win three in a
- 51:48row in the fall? I mean, possibly. I
- 51:50just at at 40 to1 it feels like there's
- 51:52not enough respect for Austin
- 51:54Smotherman's game. And I'm looking at it
- 51:57right now saying, okay, the guy has been
- 51:59a very steady and very consistent ball
- 52:02striker who now has the confidence in in
- 52:05the putting. I think he has a mentality
- 52:08that would allow something like this to
- 52:11happen. So, it's a huge violation of a
- 52:14rule for me. It feels like chasing, but
- 52:18I I just feel like he's disrespected in
- 52:20the odds. Um, so Austin Smotherman at 40
- 52:23to1 feels way too long in this field. I
- 52:28also have Steven Joerger at uh 43 to1.
- 52:31Again, I don't know how this is going to
- 52:33play with the driving of the golf ball.
- 52:37Uh, are guys going to be hitting it out
- 52:38of play or are inaccurate drivers going
- 52:41to be able to find their ball and play
- 52:43it? Stephen Jagger's one of he can get a
- 52:46little wild off the tea.
- 52:48Can he get wild off the tea to the
- 52:50proper side? That's the big question
- 52:52here. I I think he can. I think this is
- 52:55the kind of golf course where Steven
- 52:56Joerger's driving game can work. Um it
- 52:59will he will he utilize the right
- 53:01strategy? I don't know. Again, we don't
- 53:04know what the right strategy is. I think
- 53:06there's a lot of options and and that's
- 53:09why I'm willing to take a chance on a
- 53:11wild driver of the ball here because he
- 53:13can have spike weeks with the approach
- 53:15play and he's been putting pretty well
- 53:17as well. So I I like Steven Joerger as
- 53:20an outright of 43 to1. I I'm not a huge
- 53:23fan in DFS um which I know is crazy. It
- 53:26this just feels like more of a roll of
- 53:28the dice to me. If you want to do that
- 53:30in DFS, you can. Um, but I I think
- 53:34Stephen Joerger, the place where he
- 53:36makes the most sense to me is the
- 53:38outright market at 43 to1.
- 53:42Of course, I you know, you could take a
- 53:43chance on a top 10 or something. I think
- 53:45you got to go a little more aggressive
- 53:47than a top 20 with Steven Joerger. Uh,
- 53:50I'm going with him for the win. So,
- 53:53that's what the grid looks like this
- 53:54week. Kohl's over Cudy minus 105. Power
- 53:58at plus 160 for a top 20. Trace Crow
- 54:01plus 230 for a top 20. Chris Kirk plus
- 54:04125 for a top 20. Austin Smotherman at
- 54:0840 to1 in the outright market. And
- 54:10Steven Joerger 43 to1 in the outright
- 54:14market. I'm really looking forward to
- 54:15seeing how uh the Fazio Canyons golf
- 54:18course plays at Omni Barton Creek
- 54:21Resort. I'm really looking forward to
- 54:23this tournament. Looks like a pretty
- 54:25strong field and I know it's going to be
- 54:27a a fun time. So, we'll keep you up to
- 54:30date with everything going on. The plan
- 54:31right now is to do a Friday recap show
- 54:34as well. Um, which I'm I'm looking
- 54:37forward to and I'm looking forward to
- 54:40watching some golf over these first
- 54:42couple of days. I'm I'm trying to
- 54:47stop sharing. I guess I could do that.
- 54:49There we go. All right. Not quite
- 54:51perfect, but here we go. Um, so like I
- 54:54said, I'm really looking forward to
- 54:55seeing how this plays. And after seeing
- 54:57two rounds, I think we'll have a better
- 54:59idea on Friday night of what to expect.
- 55:02So, the plan is to do a halfway point
- 55:05recap show. Sunday, there will
- 55:07definitely be a show um recapping the
- 55:09whole tournament. So, I'm I'm very much
- 55:12looking forward to that. Again, if
- 55:14you're a PGA Tour fan and you want
- 55:16in-depth analysis, Second Cut Pod is the
- 55:19place to be. Hit that subscribe button,
- 55:22like the video, leave a comment in the
- 55:24comment section. It's all very helpful.
- 55:27You can also support the show. The best
- 55:30way to support the show is to watch uh
- 55:33to subscribe to the channel, watch the
- 55:36episodes, listen to the episodes, which
- 55:38you can also get the audio version
- 55:40anywhere you get your podcasts. Um but
- 55:43you can also support the show a little
- 55:44more. You can join the Patreon. That
- 55:47link is in the description. Um, the
- 55:49Patreon is being revamped
- 55:52this fall and it's going to be great and
- 55:54very important in next spring. We're
- 55:57going to do a oneanddone league with
- 55:59paid Patreon members only. We're going
- 56:01to play for some pretty cool prizes. Um,
- 56:04they're going to be golf related prizes.
- 56:06So, if you're interested in playing for
- 56:09a GTS driver, maybe some fairway wood,
- 56:12some irons. I don't have all these
- 56:14details ironed out yet, but there will
- 56:16be brand new titleist equipment
- 56:19involved. Uh, I promise you that. I'm
- 56:21going to give it away. So, we're not
- 56:23going to play for money, but we're going
- 56:24to have a really fun one and done league
- 56:26here within the show. We'll talk about
- 56:28it each and every week. Uh, I'll update
- 56:30you on leaderboards throughout 2027, and
- 56:34there will be more information coming on
- 56:36that. The one catch is you have to be a
- 56:38Patreon member. So, hit the link in the
- 56:40description, join the Patreon. You'll
- 56:43get the full model every week. You'll
- 56:45get these episodes as well. I post them
- 56:47there as well. Uh, all kinds of new
- 56:51value coming your way to all those
- 56:53Patreon members. Those of you who are
- 56:55already in there, I appreciate your
- 56:56help. So, um, thank you for supporting
- 56:59the show and going above and beyond.
- 57:01That's all we have for you here on this
- 57:03Austin Championship preview. I'm Greg
- 57:05Ducharm. We'll see you next time right
- 57:08here on the second cut. Peace.
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