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Austin Championship Preview: New Course, Model Picks & DFS Plays | Fazio Canyons — Transcript

by The Second Cut Golf Podcast · 9,523 words · 1,317 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:07Welcome to the Second Cup podcast. I'm
  2. 0:09Greg Ducharm and this is your Austin
  3. 0:11Championship preview. Really excited for
  4. 0:14this show. We got a lot to get into. Uh
  5. 0:17Austin Championship taking place this
  6. 0:20week down Omni Barton Creek. It's the
  7. 0:24Fazio Golf Course which we've never seen
  8. 0:26on the PGA Tour before. This event was
  9. 0:29supposed to be, it was originally going
  10. 0:31to be a good good event, but with all
  11. 0:34the fallout that happened a couple
  12. 0:35months ago with that, it is now the
  13. 0:37Austin Championship, uh, with a
  14. 0:40presenting sponsor, of course. Um, but
  15. 0:42so this is a new golf course and it's a
  16. 0:45pretty cool opportunity for us to go
  17. 0:46through and figure out what it's going
  18. 0:48to require, uh, what we expect to see.
  19. 0:50So, we'll show you what the scorecard
  20. 0:52looks like. We'll go through some of the
  21. 0:54Tom Fosio key characteristics. We'll
  22. 0:56look at some of the best performers on
  23. 0:58Fazio courses and we're going to create
  24. 1:01a model as well. So, we got a lot to get
  25. 1:03into from the preview side of things. Uh
  26. 1:06we also have a couple of other things
  27. 1:08I'd like to wrap up from yesterday's
  28. 1:10conversation. If you joined us in the
  29. 1:12worldwide technologies
  30. 1:14uh championship recap, we also got into
  31. 1:17a little bit of the live stuff and
  32. 1:20couple of those things I'd really like
  33. 1:21to follow up on. So, we're going to do
  34. 1:23that. But I want to remind you that
  35. 1:26right here on the second cut, if you are
  36. 1:27a fan of the PGA Tour, this is the place
  37. 1:30to be. We are going through deep dives
  38. 1:33and preview episodes for every single
  39. 1:36PGA Tour event. We also have round
  40. 1:38recaps on Fridays and Sundays uh in a
  41. 1:42typical week. That that will definitely
  42. 1:44be the case in 2027. It's been a little
  43. 1:47spotty here in the fall with uh you know
  44. 1:49some other things going on, but we are
  45. 1:52in-depth wall-to-wall coverage every
  46. 1:54single PGA Tour event, this is the place
  47. 1:57to be. So, um if if that's what you're
  48. 1:59into, if you love the PGA Tour, hit that
  49. 2:02subscribe button. Uh make sure you
  50. 2:04follow along with everything we have
  51. 2:05going on here on the second cut. To
  52. 2:07those of you who already have, I
  53. 2:09appreciate it. Thank you very much for
  54. 2:11your time. Means a great deal to me. I I
  55. 2:13hope you're learning and enjoying and I
  56. 2:16hope it really enhances your experience
  57. 2:18watching the PGA Tour. Now, I mentioned
  58. 2:23we spent a little bit of time on kind of
  59. 2:26the fallout, if you will, of Live Golf
  60. 2:28closing its doors and beginning winding
  61. 2:31windown operations.
  62. 2:34And through this process, since Liv lost
  63. 2:37its funding from PIFF and kind of has
  64. 2:39been working to create a Liv 2.0, know
  65. 2:42we
  66. 2:44um we've had a number of bigname players
  67. 2:47announce that they're not going to be
  68. 2:48playing. They've announced another path
  69. 2:50in many cases that they're going to go
  70. 2:52down. John Rom tier Hatton, you know,
  71. 2:55some of the big names like that are
  72. 2:56going to be playing uh PGA. They're
  73. 2:59going to be playing DP World Tour Golf
  74. 3:00in hopes of getting back to the PGA
  75. 3:02Tour. And the big name that we didn't
  76. 3:05hear from was Bryson Dashambo. Well,
  77. 3:08yesterday, immediately after the
  78. 3:10episode, when we talked about Bryson
  79. 3:12specifically, he released a statement,
  80. 3:15or at least I saw it immediately after
  81. 3:18the episode, and I want to read it here.
  82. 3:20Um, it's rather long, but if you haven't
  83. 3:24seen this, uh, or you know, I think he
  84. 3:27tweeted this out yesterday.
  85. 3:30I'm not going to rewrite the last four
  86. 3:32years, Bryson says. I made a decision I
  87. 3:35believed in, and I'm grateful for what
  88. 3:37came with it. Playing in front of fans,
  89. 3:40new and old, around the world, who
  90. 3:42rarely got to see the best players at
  91. 3:44home. The record crowds in Adelaide and
  92. 3:46Johannesburg will stick with me for the
  93. 3:48rest of my life. I believed this game
  94. 3:51could reach more people in more places
  95. 3:53in a new way. I still believe that, and
  96. 3:56I gave it everything I had to keep team
  97. 3:58golf alive. I want to say thank you to
  98. 4:01the people who believed in this from the
  99. 4:02start. Uh the staff, the operations, the
  100. 4:05crews, the caddies, and everyone behind
  101. 4:07the scenes at Liv Crushers Golf,
  102. 4:09Crushers GC, uh who bet their careers on
  103. 4:13this. You gave everything. And thank you
  104. 4:16to my Crushers teammates, our sponsors,
  105. 4:18and every fan who came out. I still
  106. 4:21believe in team golf. It may look
  107. 4:22different in the future, but I still
  108. 4:24believe it's essential to growing the
  109. 4:26game. Arnold Palmer said, "No player is
  110. 4:28bigger than the game." And I want to
  111. 4:30acknowledge that along the way. I've
  112. 4:33said some things that didn't help.
  113. 4:35Whatever comes next, I'll approach it
  114. 4:37with humility and respect for the people
  115. 4:39who carried this game long before me. In
  116. 4:43December, I'll compete at the Nedbank
  117. 4:45Golf Challenge Gary Players event in
  118. 4:47front of fans who made the first my
  119. 4:49first visit to South Africa
  120. 4:51unforgettable. Beyond that, I'll go
  121. 4:53about whatever is next the right way. My
  122. 4:56passion has been to grow this game.
  123. 4:58That's still the goal. Thank you for
  124. 4:59sticking with me. Together, we can all
  125. 5:01grow this great game we love.
  126. 5:05Okay, so we're
  127. 5:07back to growing the game, the grow the
  128. 5:10game narrative.
  129. 5:12And this is really interesting to me
  130. 5:14because I'm just thinking, Bryson had me
  131. 5:17thinking, you know, if if growing the
  132. 5:19game really was your motivation, what
  133. 5:22would you do? And it may be his real
  134. 5:24motivation. I I don't know. I mean, I
  135. 5:27think there's a I'd love to grow the
  136. 5:29game and I'd love to get paid to do it
  137. 5:31and I understand that he's a
  138. 5:32professional golfer, but what really
  139. 5:35does grow the game. And I think this is
  140. 5:37a really interesting conversation. And
  141. 5:40it it seems like to me Bryson's idea of
  142. 5:43growing the game is going to new places.
  143. 5:47going to places around the world and
  144. 5:49being there and creating an event that's
  145. 5:52there, a high-profile event is going to
  146. 5:54grow the game. Okay, that's a fair
  147. 5:57assessment.
  148. 5:59But, you know, what did what do you do?
  149. 6:02What did you do while you were at Live
  150. 6:05to grow the game? Well, I wanted to just
  151. 6:08take a look at what Bryson's schedule
  152. 6:10has looked like. And one of the things I
  153. 6:12love about rickr rungood.com
  154. 6:15is it's a very easy place to go see a
  155. 6:18schedule across all tours. You know, you
  156. 6:20can filter those out and see where what
  157. 6:23events you played in. And it'll show you
  158. 6:24in one place if you played in an Asian
  159. 6:27tour event or a live event or anything
  160. 6:29else. So, I want to share my screen here
  161. 6:33and just go through what Bryson's
  162. 6:35schedule look like. We're not looking at
  163. 6:37results here, but it's live events two
  164. 6:41majors. Live events major live major
  165. 6:46live live
  166. 6:49rider cup. Live live major. Live live
  167. 6:53major live major live major live major.
  168. 6:57A bunch of live events. The
  169. 6:59international series India.
  170. 7:02Live event live event live event major.
  171. 7:04Live event live event major. Live live
  172. 7:06major. Same same deal here. We're now
  173. 7:08back in 2023. All live events. A major
  174. 7:11live event major. Live event major. Live
  175. 7:13event major. PIF Saudi International
  176. 7:17Asian Tour event. Okay. Uh live event.
  177. 7:20Live event. Live event major. Major. And
  178. 7:23now we get to the PGA Tour and he plays
  179. 7:25in PGA Tour events. Saudi International
  180. 7:292022 shortly before he did go to live.
  181. 7:32Um PGA Tour event. PGA Tour event
  182. 7:34majors. PGA Tour event. Um, we're going
  183. 7:38to just show a couple more here. PGA
  184. 7:40Tour event. Major major. Oh, Saudi
  185. 7:42International
  186. 7:44again. Major major PGA event. Tour
  187. 7:47event. Tour event. Tour event. He did
  188. 7:50play a couple of uh events in Dubai and
  189. 7:54Abu Dhabi in 2020,
  190. 7:57but PGA Tour event major. PGA Tour event
  191. 8:00majors.
  192. 8:02What's the point of this?
  193. 8:04Well, you know, once Bryson got to live,
  194. 8:08he didn't play anything outside of the
  195. 8:09majors and live and and the other events
  196. 8:13that he played are
  197. 8:15contra he's contractually obligated to
  198. 8:17play. You know, the Nedbank has been
  199. 8:20around for years and I'm sure that
  200. 8:22Bryson would have been able to play if
  201. 8:23he wanted to. Maybe he wasn't. Uh and
  202. 8:26and if he wasn't then, you know, if he
  203. 8:30was rejected from playing those, this
  204. 8:31point is moot. But Liv players played in
  205. 8:34those kind of events. You can go down to
  206. 8:36Australia again. Go bring another event
  207. 8:39there. You know, it doesn't have to be
  208. 8:40on live. Go play at the Australian Open.
  209. 8:43They'd love to have you. Um go play in I
  210. 8:47I don't know. There's all kinds of Asian
  211. 8:49Tour events you can play in. There's all
  212. 8:51kinds of European DP World Tour events
  213. 8:53you can play in all over the world. Um
  214. 8:57but there seems to be this tie to team
  215. 8:59golf. And it's clear that team golf
  216. 9:04doesn't do anything to grow the game.
  217. 9:06You know, are there really Crushers fans
  218. 9:08or are there just fans of Bryson? Do you
  219. 9:11buy the Crushers hat because you're a
  220. 9:13fan of the Crushers or because you're a
  221. 9:15fan of Bryson and you saw Bryson play in
  222. 9:17a major championship wearing a Crushers
  223. 9:19hat? You know, I don't know. I I don't
  224. 9:22even know how many people bought
  225. 9:24Crushers hats, but it's just very
  226. 9:26strange to me that these events that
  227. 9:30Bryson played in are just simply live
  228. 9:32events and not when he's on the PGA
  229. 9:34Tour, they're just PGA Tour events. Now,
  230. 9:37I get that, but I don't know that that's
  231. 9:41that fully supports the doing everything
  232. 9:44I can to grow the game kind of
  233. 9:45mentality.
  234. 9:48So, um, yeah, it's an interesting
  235. 9:51standpoint.
  236. 9:53The other thing about growing the game
  237. 9:55is it's one thing to do it in person,
  238. 9:58which he played the schedule he was told
  239. 10:00to play. Um, so, you know, I I don't
  240. 10:03know how much we're going above and
  241. 10:05beyond here. um when if you're also
  242. 10:08looking to grow the game, I I think
  243. 10:10television audience is a big deal and
  244. 10:14you're and Liv clearly isn't gathering
  245. 10:16television ratings. Um so that was a
  246. 10:20very interesting side piece to that. And
  247. 10:23now going forward, what's the best
  248. 10:26opportunity to grow the game? Well, it's
  249. 10:28playing the PGA Tour. Go play a PGA Tour
  250. 10:31schedule. Go play a schedule like Rory
  251. 10:33Mroy. You know, Rory Mroy is playing all
  252. 10:37over the world and he plays a light PGA
  253. 10:39Tour schedule and he plays all over the
  254. 10:41world this time of year. That's great.
  255. 10:44That's an option. You know, it's a way
  256. 10:46you can go play in big events that
  257. 10:49gather television ratings that are
  258. 10:51high-profile events. Some of them even
  259. 10:53pay you an appearance fee. That's great.
  260. 10:56Go do that. But don't tell me that, you
  261. 11:00know, YouTube is the way to grow the
  262. 11:02game. Arnold Palmer said no one player
  263. 11:06is bigger than the game. And he
  264. 11:09mentioned that right before
  265. 11:12recognizing that he didn't go about
  266. 11:14things the right way. And the big
  267. 11:16question I'm left with is what is the
  268. 11:18right way for Bryson?
  269. 11:20And I can't imagine I can't imagine that
  270. 11:23the right way is playing YouTube golf
  271. 11:26for a player with the talent Bryson
  272. 11:29Dambo has. I have to imagine
  273. 11:33that growing the game, the best way you
  274. 11:35can grow the game as a professional
  275. 11:37golfer now is to play in the biggest
  276. 11:39professional golf events and play in
  277. 11:41some smaller ones, too. Play in
  278. 11:44professional events. And as you do that,
  279. 11:48you generate a a lot of buzz. People
  280. 11:50aren't going to events because it's a
  281. 11:52team event or because it's an individual
  282. 11:54event. They're going to see great golf.
  283. 11:56They're going to see great golfers play
  284. 11:58great golf.
  285. 12:00go play all over the place. And when
  286. 12:04when you go play in events, you can make
  287. 12:06a difference. I think that's true. I
  288. 12:08think Rory makes a difference. That's
  289. 12:10why he gets appearance fees when he goes
  290. 12:12and plays in events that offer
  291. 12:13appearance fees. Go play the PGA Tour.
  292. 12:16They have huge purses and they compete
  293. 12:19that, you know, they um they pay out big
  294. 12:23purses based on performance and they
  295. 12:26draw big television ratings, the biggest
  296. 12:28in the game. It's a great opportunity to
  297. 12:31showcase your skills and showcase the
  298. 12:34this great game to others. Show people
  299. 12:37how to hit the ball a longer way. uh you
  300. 12:41know, show people the different ways you
  301. 12:44can go about playing like he's done.
  302. 12:47Uh I I I don't think Bryson has to
  303. 12:50rewrite the has to reinvent the wheel to
  304. 12:53grow the game more. All he has to do, in
  305. 12:56my opinion, to grow the game is play the
  306. 13:01best golf and the best competition he
  307. 13:03possibly can. And if you want to do
  308. 13:05stuff on YouTube, go ahead, do it. I'm
  309. 13:07not saying that's bad by any means.
  310. 13:10But it would be a shame to me if YouTube
  311. 13:12golf was the future for Bryson Dashambo.
  312. 13:16It'd be a shame, especially after a
  313. 13:18statement like this. I I I think that
  314. 13:20would be a a real loss for Bryson and
  315. 13:24for the game. Um when you make comments
  316. 13:27like I want to play on a tour that wants
  317. 13:29me,
  318. 13:31it's the wrong attitude.
  319. 13:34You know, the attitude is I want to play
  320. 13:36I want to achieve greatness. Uh, I want
  321. 13:38to play the best players in I want to
  322. 13:40play against the best players in the
  323. 13:42world. I want to play on the biggest
  324. 13:43stage possible. That's how you grow the
  325. 13:45game.
  326. 13:47So hopefully we don't see another
  327. 13:51attempt at a
  328. 13:54team golf league uh coming out of
  329. 13:56Bryson. I really hope that doesn't
  330. 13:58happen because it is clear that it's not
  331. 14:01a draw. It's just clear. So do what you
  332. 14:05got to do to get back on the PGA tour.
  333. 14:07go play the DP World Tour this year if
  334. 14:09you have to. Um, which is a great
  335. 14:11opportunity to travel the world if
  336. 14:13that's what you want to do. And hey, as
  337. 14:15an American, why not help grow the game
  338. 14:18here as an American? I think that's a
  339. 14:20great starting place. Grow the game in
  340. 14:23Dallas,
  341. 14:25you know, grow the game in Texas where
  342. 14:27where you're from. Be a great starting
  343. 14:30place if you ask me. All right, that's
  344. 14:32enough about Bryson and and Live Golf.
  345. 14:36Um, I really hope it's enough for
  346. 14:38everything. Although, we do have to
  347. 14:39track where these players end up and
  348. 14:41what the PGA Tour does. Uh, and if
  349. 14:44they're going to be coming back to the
  350. 14:45PGA Tour in 27, waiting until 2028.
  351. 14:49Very interesting times in the world of
  352. 14:52professional golf. All right, now it's
  353. 14:54time to get into the uh Austin
  354. 14:57Championship, and I'm really looking
  355. 15:00forward to this. I want to I want to get
  356. 15:02right into it. So, we're going to go
  357. 15:03over to the notebook. This notebook is
  358. 15:06brief. Um, but I think there's some
  359. 15:09pretty good stuff in here. If you're
  360. 15:10just watching for the first time, the
  361. 15:12notebook is where we go over course
  362. 15:14facts, course stats, winning trends,
  363. 15:17course history, best performers, comp
  364. 15:19courses. Now, of course, this is the
  365. 15:21first time that we've seen uh Omni
  366. 15:23Barton Creek and the Fazio Canyons golf
  367. 15:26course where we'll be playing this week.
  368. 15:28So, we don't have winning trends. We
  369. 15:30don't have course history, best
  370. 15:31performers, and we don't have comp
  371. 15:32courses. We don't have course stats, but
  372. 15:35we have some facts, and we're going to
  373. 15:36summize what we can to get the best feel
  374. 15:41for what this tournament is going to
  375. 15:43look like. We're going to do the best we
  376. 15:45can with the information that we have.
  377. 15:47And I did quite a bit of research
  378. 15:49getting ready for this. So, here are
  379. 15:52some general facts. This is a par 72,
  380. 15:557,451
  381. 15:57yards. It was built in 1999 and
  382. 16:00renovated again in 2022 by Tom Foio. As
  383. 16:04you can imagine, it's a golf course that
  384. 16:06winds through the Texas Hill Country, if
  385. 16:09you will. Uh in the low areas, there's a
  386. 16:11really cool rocky creek uh that winds
  387. 16:15through this golf course. It's a part of
  388. 16:16the 18th hole. It guards some of these
  389. 16:19greens immediately, which is pretty
  390. 16:22cool. Some of the other facts not listed
  391. 16:25here. The fairways are Bermuda Fairways,
  392. 16:28419 Bermuda Fairways, and the greens are
  393. 16:31miniverty, Bermuda greens. So, we are
  394. 16:33looking at Bermuda greens. I think
  395. 16:36minivery Bermuda is one of the best
  396. 16:37surfaces you can putt on. Um, but when
  397. 16:40we do our research and our modeling, we
  398. 16:42will definitely incorporate Bermuda
  399. 16:44greens. All right. Now, let's uh let's
  400. 16:46move along here. The this is what the
  401. 16:49scorecard looks like. And I think this
  402. 16:51is a pretty interesting scorecard. You
  403. 16:53see 7451 and it it looks like a big
  404. 16:56number. It is a par 72. This is not an
  405. 17:00overly long golf course. Okay. On the
  406. 17:02front nine you have the par threes are
  407. 17:06175 and 215. Um not exceptionally long.
  408. 17:11The par fives are 587 and 591. That's on
  409. 17:14the longer side. Still reachable in all
  410. 17:17likelihood but uh definitely on the uh
  411. 17:20longer side. the par the longest par4 on
  412. 17:23the front nine is number nine which is
  413. 17:25478.
  414. 17:27So I I think that's um you know you have
  415. 17:29a lot of mid-range shorter par4s. Number
  416. 17:33four is 344.
  417. 17:35Uh one and two are 400 and 405.
  418. 17:38Uh so there's six is 448. You know
  419. 17:42that's not overly long by any means. on
  420. 17:44the back nine. Number 10 is So if you
  421. 17:47start at number one, you got
  422. 17:48back-to-back long par4s in nine and 10,
  423. 17:51478 and 492. 10 is the longest par4 on
  424. 17:55the golf course at 492. But on the back
  425. 17:58nine, the par 3es definitely get longer.
  426. 18:00228 at number 11, 230 at number 17. Um
  427. 18:05the parfs are shorter on the other hand.
  428. 18:0814 is 464, 18 is 562. Those will
  429. 18:12definitely be reachable.
  430. 18:14Um, and you have 13, which is 387. I
  431. 18:20think they could move the TE's up and
  432. 18:21make that one drivable. It's um, that
  433. 18:24looks like a pretty cool hole. It's a
  434. 18:26little dog leg to the left and uh, the
  435. 18:28left side is serious trouble. And you
  436. 18:31can kind of decide how far you're going
  437. 18:33to, you know, how much you're going to
  438. 18:34take on, how far you're going to move it
  439. 18:36up up the fairway, which is wide. But
  440. 18:40you got to take a little risk. you got
  441. 18:41to take on a little risk to get it close
  442. 18:43to the green and depending on the tea
  443. 18:45location that one may be drivable. All
  444. 18:48right, let's move on to some of the key
  445. 18:50characteristics of Fazio designs. Um,
  446. 18:53this is it's very often you see some
  447. 18:56dramatic backdrops.
  448. 18:58Fazio courses seem to be in beautiful
  449. 19:01areas. He always seems to have a
  450. 19:03gorgeous, stunning at times piece of
  451. 19:05property. you see larger undulating
  452. 19:09greens and this golf course being in the
  453. 19:12Hill Country, I would imagine we're
  454. 19:13going to see quite a few slopes on these
  455. 19:16greens. The bunkers are often dramatic
  456. 19:19looking. You see big flashface bunkers,
  457. 19:21so they really stand out whether you're
  458. 19:24on the tea, uh they they frame the
  459. 19:26fairway nicely and into the greens, they
  460. 19:28frame the uh greens nicely as well, and
  461. 19:31they definitely give an appearance of
  462. 19:34great depth. Uh so the flash bunkering
  463. 19:37that Fosio uses I find to be beautiful.
  464. 19:40Um generally following the natural
  465. 19:43layout of the property it feels very
  466. 19:45natural although he does use a lot of
  467. 19:48equipment. Uh and and they tend to be
  468. 19:51you know a lot of the reports on Fazio
  469. 19:53courses are there like budgetless
  470. 19:55designs. um they are built golf courses
  471. 19:58that are built, but it it still does
  472. 20:01flow with the natural property. Uh but
  473. 20:04it takes a lot to build the bunkers the
  474. 20:06way he does and and he definitely is
  475. 20:08moving a lot of turf. Uh but it it does
  476. 20:11have a natural feel to it in my opinion.
  477. 20:14Fairways tend to be generous, but
  478. 20:16there's demanding visuals, so it they're
  479. 20:19they're often easier than they appear
  480. 20:22and they appear to be pretty
  481. 20:23challenging. And and looking at this
  482. 20:25golf course on the maps, it does look
  483. 20:27like there's some width to the fairways.
  484. 20:30Not like we saw last week. You know,
  485. 20:32you're not looking at 80 yard fairways,
  486. 20:34but there's space. Definitely space.
  487. 20:36There are some areas where the bunkers
  488. 20:38will pinch down and players are not
  489. 20:40going to be able to hit driver on every
  490. 20:42hole. It's not a bombs away kind of golf
  491. 20:44course. There'll be some thought process
  492. 20:46on the TE's. And given the length, the
  493. 20:49commonality of these mid-range par4s,
  494. 20:52there's going to be some opportunities
  495. 20:54to play this golf course in in a number
  496. 20:57of different ways. Uh it it doesn't seem
  497. 21:00like there's a huge advantage to bombing
  498. 21:02it. You know, it's not one of those
  499. 21:05northeast restorations where there's no
  500. 21:08trees and the bunkers are at 310. If you
  501. 21:11can fly at 310, it opens up like crazy.
  502. 21:14That doesn't seem to be the case here.
  503. 21:16seems like it does narrow down in some
  504. 21:18areas and being on, you know, winding
  505. 21:22through these hills, there are some
  506. 21:24pretty significant falloffs into trees,
  507. 21:26but there's plenty of room to hit it.
  508. 21:28It's just a matter of how you're going
  509. 21:29to navigate these bunkers. Um, so it
  510. 21:33very interesting what what Fazio does
  511. 21:35with his designs. Here are some of the
  512. 21:37notable courses. Oh, this looks like the
  513. 21:40exact same slide. Let me go through this
  514. 21:42one more time. These are some notable
  515. 21:44courses. Uh, we got Shadow Creek, Caves
  516. 21:48Valley. We've seen these on uh on the
  517. 21:50PGA tour before. Wade Hampton, which is
  518. 21:53in North Carolina, stunning looking golf
  519. 21:56course. Hudson National, which I've
  520. 21:59played, stunning golf course. Uh, I
  521. 22:02mean, talk about dramatic backdrops.
  522. 22:04This is it's dramatic and the bunkering
  523. 22:07is beautiful, but it's playable. Lake
  524. 22:10Nona down there in Florida. We've seen a
  525. 22:12couple times in, you know,
  526. 22:16what did we used to see? Lake Nona and
  527. 22:19Albany and Isleworth used to play a
  528. 22:22match. We kind of rotate around. So Lake
  529. 22:24Nona is another Fazio golf course. Of
  530. 22:27course, there's many more and he's had
  531. 22:29his hand in a lot of redos like Quail
  532. 22:31Hollow, but these are some of the
  533. 22:33notable original designs that we could
  534. 22:36pay attention to. Now, uh, we, this is
  535. 22:41kind of a tricky thing. I can't get this
  536. 22:43into the model specifically.
  537. 22:46Oh, and and that seemed to not move on
  538. 22:48to the next slide. Um, I I couldn't get
  539. 22:51this into the model specifically. So, I
  540. 22:54just wanted to take a look in the
  541. 22:56notebook at the best Fazio design
  542. 22:58players since 2020. Now, these aren't
  543. 23:02typically mainstay courses, although
  544. 23:05included in this are some of his major
  545. 23:08redoss. Um, but these are the best
  546. 23:11players in this field on Fazio design
  547. 23:13golf courses since 2020. Some of them
  548. 23:16only have one start, like Tommy
  549. 23:18Morrison, who leads the way here. Um, he
  550. 23:21has one start. It's a win. It was on the
  551. 23:22Cornferry tour. Ben James number two.
  552. 23:26Johnny Kefir number three. Miles
  553. 23:29Russell. Oh, Ben James also withdrew.
  554. 23:33Um, I believe. Let me let me just verify
  555. 23:37something here really quickly.
  556. 23:40Uh, I I meant to bring this up before
  557. 23:42the show started, but um, we're going to
  558. 23:46go to the Austin Championship. I just
  559. 23:48want to check this. So, Denny McCarthy
  560. 23:51withdrew, Matt Wallace withdrew, which
  561. 23:54got Ben Silverman in. Alvaro Ortiz got
  562. 23:58in with a top 10 finish. Uh Harry Hall
  563. 24:02withdrew. That all had Silverman in.
  564. 24:05Then Silverman withdrew on Monday. David
  565. 24:08Skins got in. Ben James withdrew on
  566. 24:11Monday. Jimmy Stanger got in. So Ben
  567. 24:13James is out. Michael Kim withdrew. Got
  568. 24:16Paul Peterson in. Tom Hogy withdrew. Ben
  569. 24:19Martin got in as a result. And Bo
  570. 24:22Hustler withdrew, which got Tyler Duncan
  571. 24:25in. Uh, so those are the field updates
  572. 24:28and Ben James just kind of threw me off
  573. 24:30because I thought I saw his name. Um,
  574. 24:32Miles Russell number four, again,
  575. 24:35limited limited sample size here. AJ
  576. 24:37Uert number five. Blades Brown number
  577. 24:40six, he's still playing. He has not
  578. 24:43withdrawn. Austin Ecro number seven,
  579. 24:46Zack Bosshu number eight, Max Grazerman
  580. 24:49number nine, Cole Sherwood coming in at
  581. 24:52number 10.
  582. 24:54All right. So, we're going to um we are
  583. 24:57going to pay attention to that. We want
  584. 25:00to pay just kind of keep that in mind,
  585. 25:02but we're now going to get into what
  586. 25:05this actual model looks like. So, I'm
  587. 25:07going to go back to just a a full image
  588. 25:10of me here and I'm going to get out of
  589. 25:13this full screen. And now we'll work
  590. 25:16over here. And now I can share my
  591. 25:19screen. So, this is the model that I
  592. 25:22created. Uh again, if you're a Patreon
  593. 25:25member, a paid Patreon member, I'll send
  594. 25:28you this full model. And you can see I
  595. 25:31I'm gonna wait. I'm not going to send it
  596. 25:34right away. I'll probably send it
  597. 25:35tomorrow because I just want to make
  598. 25:37sure that we get the field updates
  599. 25:40loaded in here. And you know, if I miss
  600. 25:42one, I apologize. But I'll send you this
  601. 25:45whole model. If you're in the Patreon, I
  602. 25:47I'll post these each and every week. And
  603. 25:49remember, last week's model had an
  604. 25:52extremely strong performance. Of the top
  605. 25:5515 players in the model, 13 of them
  606. 25:57finished in the top 25. And number one
  607. 26:00and two in the model was uh Ben James
  608. 26:03and Blades Brown. And they were in a
  609. 26:06playoff together. I think it did pretty
  610. 26:08well. It also picked up on guys like
  611. 26:10Alvaro Ortiz, who by the way leads this
  612. 26:14model at 7,300. He's first in the model.
  613. 26:17Blades Brown number two, Chris Kirk
  614. 26:19number three, Sheamus Power number four,
  615. 26:22Trace Crowe number five, Andrew Novak
  616. 26:26number six, Doug Gim number seven,
  617. 26:28Austin Smotherman and Christian
  618. 26:30Bazidenhout are eight and nine and Ben
  619. 26:33Kohl's is number 10 in the model. Uh I
  620. 26:36was looking at basically the the general
  621. 26:38concept here is we don't have a lot of
  622. 26:41information. This is a lot of guess.
  623. 26:43This is a very generic barebones kind of
  624. 26:47model, but it does have a couple
  625. 26:49specific aspects.
  626. 26:52So, I took strokes gain approach over
  627. 26:54your last 24 rounds. That's basically
  628. 26:56how you've done in the fall. Um, I
  629. 26:59weighted that pretty heavily, 15%.
  630. 27:02Strokes gain putting over your last 12
  631. 27:04rounds. I think we're going to see quite
  632. 27:05a few birdies out here. I you know I I
  633. 27:08don't think it's going to be as easy as
  634. 27:10we saw in Mexico, but I still think
  635. 27:13they're going to go pretty low on this
  636. 27:15golf course. Uh so I have strokes game
  637. 27:18putting over your last 12 weighted at
  638. 27:1910%. Ta green over your last 36 rounds
  639. 27:24weighted at 10%. And I really wanted to
  640. 27:27put an emphasis on recent form given
  641. 27:30that we don't know uh anything. We we
  642. 27:33really don't know much about this golf
  643. 27:34course and we have never seen it played
  644. 27:36in competition. We have no data to back
  645. 27:39up any of our um any of our thoughts. I
  646. 27:42wanted recent form to play a big role.
  647. 27:44So I took strokes gain total over your
  648. 27:46last 24 rounds. Again, that's basically
  649. 27:48how you've done this fall and um I
  650. 27:52weighted that at 20%. So heavy heavy
  651. 27:55weight on recent form here in this
  652. 27:58model. Um, and then I went through the
  653. 28:01normal distribution stuff. How often are
  654. 28:03you gaining two or more strokes
  655. 28:05approaching the green? Uh, I did that at
  656. 28:085%. How often are you gaining three or
  657. 28:11more strokes approaching the green? I
  658. 28:12did that at 5%. I did the same with
  659. 28:15putting two or more strokes, three or
  660. 28:17more strokes. And that for all four of
  661. 28:19those, they're at 5%. and over your last
  662. 28:22100 rounds. Um, I look, I added good
  663. 28:26drive percentage over your last 36
  664. 28:29rounds at 5%.
  665. 28:31Um, I think this is
  666. 28:34this is an interesting one because it
  667. 28:37the golf course look there's plenty of
  668. 28:39space there. While the fairways, many of
  669. 28:42them are in that 30 yard wide
  670. 28:44neighborhood, there's still space beyond
  671. 28:46that. So, the driving corridors are wide
  672. 28:49enough, but big misses are penalized in
  673. 28:51a great way from the looks of it. You
  674. 28:53know, it looks like heavy trees and
  675. 28:55shrubs and rocks. Uh you can hit it down
  676. 28:58into some really low areas that are
  677. 29:00problematic. Um so, you you want to keep
  678. 29:03it within
  679. 29:05the bound the boundaries similar to last
  680. 29:08week. So, I just took good drive
  681. 29:09percentage a very small increment there.
  682. 29:13I don't think this is a driving accuracy
  683. 29:15course. I don't think it's a driving
  684. 29:17distance course. I think it's a penalty
  685. 29:19avoidance course off the tee. So I I
  686. 29:22approach that in two ways. One is the T
  687. 29:25green metric which is going to
  688. 29:27incorporate some driving. Another is the
  689. 29:29good drive percentage aspect which I
  690. 29:32didn't put a huge weight on because I do
  691. 29:34think there's an opportunity to hit less
  692. 29:37than driver around this golf course. Um
  693. 29:39but it's basically a penalty avoidance.
  694. 29:42Uh then I took opportunities over your
  695. 29:45last 24 rounds. Weighted that at 10.
  696. 29:47That's how many times do you hit it
  697. 29:49inside of 15 feet and strokes gain
  698. 29:52Bermuda which is putting on Bermuda
  699. 29:55greens. Last 50 rounds I weighted that
  700. 29:58at 10. So this the reason I say this is
  701. 30:01pretty bare bones is it's a pretty
  702. 30:03strong emphasis on approach play and a
  703. 30:05pretty strong emphasis on putting um you
  704. 30:09know specifically this fall. And then
  705. 30:11there's a heavy recent form bias here as
  706. 30:13well. Uh so that's kind of the general
  707. 30:16model. It is this is as close to if I
  708. 30:20had no information about a golf course,
  709. 30:22how would I model it out? Pretty similar
  710. 30:24to this. Um and and those are the guys
  711. 30:28that we have up there in the top 10. So
  712. 30:31before we get to the grid, which we do
  713. 30:34have a a grid today. I'm looking forward
  714. 30:36to that. I wanted to just go through
  715. 30:38some of the names that stood out to me
  716. 30:40from a DFS standpoint. Um, so one of
  717. 30:43them in the 9K range, we got Doug Gim
  718. 30:46here at 9800. I'm going to uh click that
  719. 30:49and we'll show you his profile because
  720. 30:52Doug Gim is very impressive to me. Um,
  721. 30:56you see he's he's definitely a pretty
  722. 30:58heavy favorite. He's like the second
  723. 31:00favorite as I was looking earlier this
  724. 31:02afternoon. He's at 1650, 9,800 on
  725. 31:06DraftKings. Um, but when we we take a
  726. 31:08look at his attributes, distance, not a
  727. 31:11huge advantage. Everything else in the
  728. 31:13TO green categories, he is well above
  729. 31:16average. You know, he's exceptional with
  730. 31:18greens of regulation. Um, pretty good
  731. 31:21strokes gain off the tea as well. He's
  732. 31:23in the 94th percentile in both of those.
  733. 31:26uh 80 80th percentile approaching the
  734. 31:29green, you know, so he hits a lot of
  735. 31:31greens and he gains a fair number of
  736. 31:34strokes. The the weakest aspect of his
  737. 31:36game is putting which is still slightly
  738. 31:38above average and there'll be more on
  739. 31:41that later. Um so let let's go up, you
  740. 31:44know, you can see this pie chart here.
  741. 31:46It's pretty big. This is a pretty
  742. 31:48complete player, especially when you
  743. 31:51look at we'll go over to his results and
  744. 31:56Whoops. And we'll take a look at what
  745. 31:58he's done on the Greens lately because
  746. 32:01this is really impressive and why I'm
  747. 32:04excited about Doug Gim every event this
  748. 32:07fall. So, this is the Builtmore
  749. 32:09Championship on he's played four events.
  750. 32:11He's gained strokes putting in all four.
  751. 32:14Twice he's gained over two strokes for
  752. 32:16the week. Um, but all four have been
  753. 32:18positive and the results have followed.
  754. 32:21T17, second, T17, T6.
  755. 32:25This is a Doug Gims become a very
  756. 32:28reliable player. Uh, he's also gained
  757. 32:31strokes approaching the green in all
  758. 32:33four. On three occasions, he's gained
  759. 32:35over three strokes approaching the
  760. 32:36green. Um, he's hit a fair number of
  761. 32:40fairways as well. So, I I do expect Doug
  762. 32:43Gim to be a part of the conversation. I
  763. 32:45I don't know how excited I really am
  764. 32:49with him in the outright market or the
  765. 32:51top 20 market. He's kind of priced for
  766. 32:53this, but I think he makes a lot of
  767. 32:55sense from a DFS standpoint. So, I love
  768. 32:58Doug Gim there. Um, next on the list is
  769. 33:03we'll switch over here to Chris Kirk,
  770. 33:05who's also in the $9,000 range. And
  771. 33:08Chris Kirk is number three in the model.
  772. 33:13I have one concern
  773. 33:16looking at him in general putting real
  774. 33:18weakness for him. Everything else is
  775. 33:20above average and the strength is his
  776. 33:23iron play. So he's in the 95th
  777. 33:25percentile when it comes to iron play.
  778. 33:28Um you know he's not an overly long
  779. 33:30driver so his off the tea is his off the
  780. 33:33tea game is pretty average. And that is
  781. 33:35actually the concern for me when it
  782. 33:39comes to Chris Kirk. He lost three
  783. 33:41strokes off the tea last week. Really
  784. 33:43wide fairways. He still hit 89% of his
  785. 33:46fairways for the week, but some costly
  786. 33:49misses played his way out of the
  787. 33:51tournament. Had a chance to win, ends up
  788. 33:53finishing T12 because of the driver,
  789. 33:55that gives me a little concern. But if
  790. 33:58Chris Kirk can navigate his way around
  791. 34:00this golf course and just simply get it
  792. 34:02in play off the T, this is a redhot
  793. 34:06player with his irons right now. gained
  794. 34:08eight strokes last week. 7.99, 1.83 at
  795. 34:13the Butterfield Bermuda Championship,
  796. 34:154.19 at the Bank of Utah Championship,
  797. 34:18and in Asheville at the Builtmore, he
  798. 34:21gained five strokes approaching the
  799. 34:23green. This is elite. And in his last
  800. 34:26two, he's gained strokes putting as
  801. 34:27well. So, I'm very high on uh Chris
  802. 34:31Kirk, and the model is too. In fact, we
  803. 34:35take a look at um
  804. 34:38yeah, that was the other thing. So, he's
  805. 34:40just okay putting on Bermuda. Uh he's
  806. 34:43about a zero putter on Bermuda according
  807. 34:45to the model.
  808. 34:47So, um but Chris Kirk number three in
  809. 34:51the model coming in at 9,400 on
  810. 34:53DraftKings. I I think he makes a ton of
  811. 34:56sense and he really gave it a good run
  812. 34:59last week.
  813. 35:00One other guy I wanted to pay attention
  814. 35:03to from a DFS perspective is Austin
  815. 35:06Smotherman. Okay, he's at 9,100.
  816. 35:10Model has him at number eight. So I'll
  817. 35:14share the screen here. He's at 40 to1.
  818. 35:19Austin Smotherin's coming off
  819. 35:20backto-back wins. He's at 40 to1. Can't
  820. 35:23believe that. Look at this G. This game
  821. 35:26is so complete from a T green
  822. 35:28perspective. 98th percentile approaching
  823. 35:32the green in his last 100 rounds.
  824. 35:36Um the weakness is around the green play
  825. 35:39and putting. But wait till you see what
  826. 35:41he's done recently. Um total is above
  827. 35:44average. He's really pulled down by the
  828. 35:46short game and the putting. You can see
  829. 35:48that in his pie chart here as well.
  830. 35:50These two areas are just weak.
  831. 35:52everything else is great, but
  832. 35:55they're getting better and that's the
  833. 35:57really encouraging part for me. So, we
  834. 36:00know that Austin Smotherman has a very
  835. 36:02solid um you know, Ted Green game, but
  836. 36:06look what he's done putting in his last
  837. 36:08three events. He's gained three strokes
  838. 36:09putting. He's never done that before in
  839. 36:11his career. And I think he's really on
  840. 36:13to something with the flat stick. And it
  841. 36:16raises his ceiling all the way to
  842. 36:18winning. That's why he's won his last
  843. 36:19two starts. So, it does feel a little
  844. 36:23bit like chasing for me right now. Like
  845. 36:25I'm I'm chasing a guy coming off of
  846. 36:27back-to-back wins, but I I listen to him
  847. 36:30speak and just like I'm just doing what
  848. 36:32I'm doing. I'm doing what I'm doing. I'm
  849. 36:34getting better. And he definitely is.
  850. 36:38This is every event this fall has been a
  851. 36:41very strong performance off the tea.
  852. 36:42Gain at least two strokes off the tea
  853. 36:45and approaching the green in all three
  854. 36:47fall events. and the putting is
  855. 36:51extraordinary. So, I think at 9100,
  856. 36:54Austin Smotherman makes a ton of sense
  857. 36:58in in DFS.
  858. 37:00All right, I want to get down to some of
  859. 37:02the 8K options. Uh, and one of my
  860. 37:06favorites,
  861. 37:07one of my favorites in this whole field
  862. 37:10is Sheamus Power. And I shouldn't say
  863. 37:12that he's because he's really the
  864. 37:15favorite of the model. He's number four
  865. 37:17in the model and
  866. 37:20I I'll share his screen here. He's 8,900
  867. 37:23on DraftKings and 43 to1 to win. That's
  868. 37:27just uh incredible stuff. And again,
  869. 37:30he's average or above average in every
  870. 37:32area. So, I I don't think there's any
  871. 37:36real concerns. He doesn't quite have the
  872. 37:38ceiling. You know, only putting and
  873. 37:42birdie or better percentage is he in the
  874. 37:4490th percentile. not a bad place to be.
  875. 37:47His driving accuracy is 83rd percentile,
  876. 37:5171st percentile in greens of regulation.
  877. 37:54There's no red flags when you look at
  878. 37:57Sheamus Power from a um wide view. When
  879. 38:01we look at his recent results, things
  880. 38:04start to look a whole lot better. First
  881. 38:06of all, every event this fall, he has he
  882. 38:09has three top 10s in four events this
  883. 38:11fall and four top 25s. T-21 at the Bank
  884. 38:15of Utah is his worst finish. He shot 20
  885. 38:18under, 17 under, 16 under, 18 under.
  886. 38:21This guy's just playing great golf. Um,
  887. 38:24approaching the green. He's gained three
  888. 38:26or more strokes approaching the green in
  889. 38:28three out of the four events in the
  890. 38:30fall. And he's gained over 2.9 strokes
  891. 38:33putting in all four events as well. It's
  892. 38:37just been stellar play from Sheamus
  893. 38:39Power. Yet, he's in the $8,000 range.
  894. 38:42So, I I think a very wise and excellent
  895. 38:45play. Um, model loves them and I do,
  896. 38:50too.
  897. 38:51All right, next on the list, we're going
  898. 38:53down a little bit here, down to 14th in
  899. 38:56the model. Uh, and still in the 8K range
  900. 39:00when it comes to the DFS picks. And this
  901. 39:02is Zack Bosshu. So, we'll go ahead and
  902. 39:05share his screen. Yeah, 8,800. He's 39
  903. 39:08to1 to win. I don't love that in the
  904. 39:10outright market, but I certainly like it
  905. 39:12in DFS.
  906. 39:14Similar story here. Very average in all
  907. 39:17these categories. Um, but a very good
  908. 39:20approach player. 82nd percentile
  909. 39:22approaching the green. 90th percentile
  910. 39:25in birdie or better percentage. Um, I I
  911. 39:28think that goes a long way as well. No
  912. 39:32glaring weaknesses in the pie chart.
  913. 39:35Maybe strokes gained off the tea is a
  914. 39:37little bit of a concern.
  915. 39:40Uh let's look at the recent form for
  916. 39:43Zach Bosshu.
  917. 39:45Similar story for him. Although he's
  918. 39:47played five events in the fall, he's
  919. 39:50gained strokes off the tea in four of
  920. 39:52them. Gained strokes approaching the
  921. 39:53green in all of them.
  922. 39:56Uh when it comes to the putting, he had
  923. 39:58a great putting week at the Bay Current
  924. 40:00when he finished tied ninth, but he's
  925. 40:03struggled a little bit in the last two.
  926. 40:05Okay, he's lost seven strokes combined
  927. 40:08in his last two events. Those were both
  928. 40:10on past Palum Greens.
  929. 40:13So, is he going to lose three or four
  930. 40:15strokes putting again? Um, well, I
  931. 40:18certainly hope not, but let's just go
  932. 40:20ahead and check out the radar page and
  933. 40:23we'll look at his putting. And this
  934. 40:27breaks it down by surface. Pass Palum,
  935. 40:30he actually putts pretty well, but has
  936. 40:31struggled. Bermuda's fine. He's fine on
  937. 40:34Bermuda. Pana is fine. So, I I just
  938. 40:37think it's unlikely that we see Zach
  939. 40:40Bosshu lose three strokes putting again.
  940. 40:43Uh I think the surface change in this
  941. 40:45case is a very good thing. Uh heading to
  942. 40:48Texas. I I think it's going to go a long
  943. 40:51way. And I think he's from Oklahoma.
  944. 40:53He's he's born in Virginia.
  945. 40:55He resides in Oklahoma. He lives in
  946. 40:58Edmund, Oklahoma. Now heading down to
  947. 41:00Austin, Texas. Perhaps comfortable here.
  948. 41:04So, he'll be taking on the Bermuda
  949. 41:05Greens this week, and I I like it. Um,
  950. 41:09all right, let's move to the 7K range.
  951. 41:12Number one in the model is Alvaro Ortiz.
  952. 41:15He's 7,300 on DraftKings. We got to take
  953. 41:18a look at that. Um, so we will here. And
  954. 41:23here we go. 7,300. 76 to1 to win. I just
  955. 41:27want to take a look at this because, uh,
  956. 41:30he is number one in the model. Now
  957. 41:33everything seems to be pretty good from
  958. 41:35a percentage standpoint except his off
  959. 41:38strokes gained off the tea 31st
  960. 41:40percentile. It's the biggest weakness of
  961. 41:42his game.
  962. 41:45What has happened recently with Alvaro
  963. 41:48Ortiz? He's struggled off the tea a
  964. 41:50little bit on some I mean Vidanta
  965. 41:52worldwide fairway 75% hit 94% of the
  966. 41:56fairways last week. First time he gained
  967. 41:58strokes off the tea. He's not very long
  968. 42:03and you know I I think he's fairly
  969. 42:06accurate but
  970. 42:08not overly accurate. So I worry a little
  971. 42:12bit about the driving game. It is good
  972. 42:14to see that he's short. He So he he
  973. 42:16struggles with strokes gained off the
  974. 42:18tea because he doesn't hit it very far.
  975. 42:21But the the big concern to me, I know
  976. 42:25the model got him spot on last week,
  977. 42:28but it's in he's in Mexico, his home
  978. 42:31country. He just finished tied 34th. He
  979. 42:34wants to have a big week. He gets in
  980. 42:37this week because of a top 10 finish.
  981. 42:40He does a lot of his work with short
  982. 42:43game. you sees I mean in in two of the
  983. 42:47last four events he's gained over six
  984. 42:49strokes around the greens.
  985. 42:53It's great. It just feels very risky to
  986. 42:55me. Uh I mean that's making up a large
  987. 42:58majority of his te to green work. Last
  988. 43:01week he gained 11 strokes to green. More
  989. 43:03than half came from short game alone.
  990. 43:07Putting's pretty good for him as well,
  991. 43:09but this he he's number one in the
  992. 43:11model, but it feels very risky to me.
  993. 43:14So, I don't really
  994. 43:17I mean, I think in a DFS perspective,
  995. 43:19you could take a chance on Alvaro Ortiz
  996. 43:21if ownership is low. Um, but this
  997. 43:24doesn't this doesn't smell right to me.
  998. 43:26I'm I'm a little that feels like a trap.
  999. 43:29So, I go down to Trace Crow, who's
  1000. 43:33number seven in the model. Um, number
  1001. 43:36five in the model, excuse me. And I
  1002. 43:38think Trace Crow makes a lot more sense
  1003. 43:41than Alvaro Ortiz. Okay, I'm going to go
  1004. 43:43right to his uh right to Trace Crow's
  1005. 43:46results. And again, he's struggled off
  1006. 43:50the tea a little bit as well. He's
  1007. 43:52struggled with some driving accuracy. My
  1008. 43:54hope is that he can get it in play. What
  1009. 43:56I really like is these spike weeks
  1010. 43:58approaching the green. I picked up over
  1011. 44:01five in Mexico at the Vidant World. uh
  1012. 44:04and over 10 in Utah. That goes a long
  1013. 44:08way. Uh he also can spike with the
  1014. 44:10putter. Seven strokes at Bonanta World
  1015. 44:14where he finished tied 11th. Gained five
  1016. 44:16strokes putting in Bermuda. Guess what
  1017. 44:19the greens were in Bermuda? Bermuda
  1018. 44:21greens. Although they are different. So,
  1019. 44:23let's just go over here to his radar
  1020. 44:25page. We'll take a look at the uh
  1021. 44:28putting for Trace Crow. Check out how he
  1022. 44:32does on various surfaces and Bermuda
  1023. 44:35pretty good. Pass Palum is best.
  1024. 44:37Bermuda's pretty good as well. So, I'm
  1025. 44:40I'm comfortable with that. We go to
  1026. 44:42Pana. Stay away from Trace Crow.
  1027. 44:45So, um he definitely Trace Crow
  1028. 44:48definitely works. He's in the 7K range.
  1029. 44:50Ortiz is number one in the model. I
  1030. 44:52don't really like it. Zack Blair and
  1031. 44:54Luke Clanton I'm comfortable going back
  1032. 44:56with. Um I I just love Zack Blair's
  1033. 45:00game. He's number 16 in the model. I'm
  1034. 45:03lukewarm on that. Luke Clanton, um, you
  1035. 45:07know, finished tied 33rd last week. I
  1036. 45:09thought last week was a better fit, but
  1037. 45:11I'm willing to stay on track with him.
  1038. 45:13His approach play has been excellent.
  1039. 45:16Uh, he's number 13 in the model.
  1040. 45:19Then we get to the 6K range, and I just
  1041. 45:23want to mention a couple of these guys.
  1042. 45:24The top performers,
  1043. 45:26let's just share this. the top 6K
  1044. 45:29performers in the model. We got to
  1045. 45:32scroll down a little bit here. Uh and we
  1046. 45:35go to where are we? Okay, we got to go
  1047. 45:38to number 23. Number 23, Cole Sherwood.
  1048. 45:41He's 6800
  1049. 45:43uh on DraftKings.
  1050. 45:45The reason I'm intrigued by that is
  1051. 45:48looking back at our best Fazio design
  1052. 45:51players since 2020, Cole Sherwood was
  1053. 45:54number 10. A lot of his work has been on
  1054. 45:56the corn ferry tour. Um, but when you
  1055. 45:59look through this model, he performs
  1056. 46:02pretty well in a lot of these areas.
  1057. 46:04Performs well on bent grass greens,
  1058. 46:06which I like. Uh, the good drive
  1059. 46:08percentage is very high. Rates out very
  1060. 46:11well in that. Decent when it comes to
  1061. 46:14opportunities. He doesn't quite spike
  1062. 46:17very often. That that's the that's why
  1063. 46:20Cole Sherwood's down a little bit at
  1064. 46:2223rd in this model.
  1065. 46:24putting can be a concern, you know, over
  1066. 46:27his last 12 it has, but he's very good
  1067. 46:28on Bermuda. So, I like that. Um, so I
  1068. 46:32I'm I'm going to trust the model here in
  1069. 46:34the 6K range, and I'm going to go with
  1070. 46:35Cole Sherwood, who's number 23. I'm also
  1071. 46:38going to go with Hayden Springer, who's
  1072. 46:40number 26. Those are the two best
  1073. 46:42options in the model. The model doesn't
  1074. 46:45really like the 6K guys. Um, so I'm just
  1075. 46:48going to go with the top two in large
  1076. 46:50part because it performs so well.
  1077. 46:52They're the only two 6K guys in the top
  1078. 46:5430, but I think there's an there's an
  1079. 46:57opportunity to eliminate the 6K range. I
  1080. 46:59I don't think you have to go with the
  1081. 47:01Kovven uh or a Blades Brown up top. I
  1082. 47:05think you can drop down a little bit in
  1083. 47:07the 9K and go with a Doug Gim or a Kirk
  1084. 47:10or a Smotherman. Um, you can you can mix
  1085. 47:13in a Sheamus Power uh and and then hit
  1086. 47:17on some 7K guys, take a chance on a
  1087. 47:19Trace Crow or a Luke Clanton and I think
  1088. 47:22it's going to work out great. Uh, so I'm
  1089. 47:25not too worried about the 6K range, but
  1090. 47:27it is Cole Sherwood and Hayden Springer
  1091. 47:30according to the model. And by the way,
  1092. 47:32I you know, I I went through and looked
  1093. 47:34at these all these players by hand and
  1094. 47:36it's not very attractive down there.
  1095. 47:38Even Sherwood and Hayden Springer, I'm
  1096. 47:40like, h, no, this is okay, I guess. Um,
  1097. 47:44so in that case, we'll trust the
  1098. 47:47computer.
  1099. 47:49All right, we got just a couple more
  1100. 47:51things to get to here. Um, really one
  1101. 47:55more thing to get to, and it's the grid.
  1102. 47:57So, I'm going to
  1103. 48:00make that a pres I'm going to present
  1104. 48:02that and bring up the grid. Okay, so if
  1105. 48:05you haven't watched before, we provide
  1106. 48:07some matchups. would provide some
  1107. 48:08finishing positions and some outrights.
  1108. 48:12I have room in the grid for three of
  1109. 48:14each. I do that sometimes, but I'm not
  1110. 48:18just going to fill out three matchups if
  1111. 48:21I don't like them. I'm not going to fill
  1112. 48:23out three outrights if I don't like
  1113. 48:25them. Um, you know, last week I gave out
  1114. 48:28a lot of top 20s. I like top 20s for
  1115. 48:31finishing positions, especially in these
  1116. 48:34fall events. So, I have three of those.
  1117. 48:36There's probably I'm open to a lot more
  1118. 48:39players in that category. Um, but these
  1119. 48:41are the three I felt really good about.
  1120. 48:44So, let's start with the matchups. We
  1121. 48:45got Ben Kohl's over Pearson Cudy at
  1122. 48:48minus 105. I love Ben Kohl's game. Um, I
  1123. 48:53I I didn't love the top 20 number. I
  1124. 48:57think he kind of teeters right on that
  1125. 48:59brink. I wouldn't be surp tied 25th last
  1126. 49:02week. He's got a couple tie 21sts, but
  1127. 49:05he's a top 25 machine.
  1128. 49:08You're not going to get him at a decent
  1129. 49:10price in a top 30 market, which I would
  1130. 49:13almost guarantee. So, you got to take
  1131. 49:15the chance on the top 20. I I love a
  1132. 49:18reliable ball striker in a category like
  1133. 49:21this. Ben Kohl's fits that mold. Pearson
  1134. 49:24Cudy has played some pretty good golf.
  1135. 49:27It's a little spotty and I he's very
  1136. 49:29boomer bust. So, you know, we're we
  1137. 49:32could get Pearson Cudy finishing third
  1138. 49:35in this event. Um, but I'm taking the
  1139. 49:37safe play here with Ben Kohl's. Ben
  1140. 49:39Kohl's is a safe play. Pearson Cud is
  1141. 49:42the much more volatile play. I know he
  1142. 49:44played at Texas Hookham Horns. Uh, Texas
  1143. 49:47is in Austin. I'm sure he's played here
  1144. 49:49a lot, but I'm going the reliable. You
  1145. 49:53know, this is like, can Pearson Cody
  1146. 49:54beat old man par in Ben Kohl's? And and
  1147. 49:58Kohl's is the dog in this one. So, I'm
  1148. 50:00going Coals there. Finishing positions,
  1149. 50:03we talked about Sheamus Power already.
  1150. 50:05You can get Sheamus Power, who is number
  1151. 50:08four in my model at plus 160 for a top
  1152. 50:1220. Sign me up all day. Um, don't even
  1153. 50:15need to go into the outright market for
  1154. 50:17Sheamus Power. I'll take the top 20 and
  1155. 50:20run. So, I love that. Uh, feel very
  1156. 50:23confident in that. Trace Crow is at plus
  1157. 50:26230 for a top 20 finish.
  1158. 50:30The model has him um the model has Trace
  1159. 50:34Crow number five.
  1160. 50:36I'll take him for a top 20 all day. I I
  1161. 50:41don't think Trace Crow has what it takes
  1162. 50:44to win this week. Maybe he proves me
  1163. 50:46wrong. Um I I think it's a little
  1164. 50:49aggressive to go in the outright market
  1165. 50:51for him, but I definitely think a good
  1166. 50:53week is on the horizon here. Model's
  1167. 50:55been loving him the last couple of
  1168. 50:57weeks. He had a couple tough rounds on
  1169. 50:59the weekend, you know, last weekend. Um,
  1170. 51:02but top 20 fits. It's It's not a home
  1171. 51:06run. Sheamus Power is a home run. Trace
  1172. 51:08Crow's not, but you get better a better
  1173. 51:11number on it. Chris Kirk is also, I
  1174. 51:14would say, a pretty close to a home run.
  1175. 51:17We'll see what happens off the tea. I
  1176. 51:20believe he can figure out a way to get
  1177. 51:21the ball in play around this golf
  1178. 51:23course. I'm a little worried about the
  1179. 51:26drive in here, but you get Chris Kirk
  1180. 51:28who's number three in the model at plus
  1181. 51:31125 for a top 20. That makes a whole lot
  1182. 51:33of sense to me. Um, now, so let's take a
  1183. 51:37look at some of these outrights here.
  1184. 51:39Austin Smotherman, I mentioned already,
  1185. 51:41is at 40 to1 and he's coming off at
  1186. 51:44back-toback wins. I mean, let's just
  1187. 51:46keep it rolling. Could he win three in a
  1188. 51:48row in the fall? I mean, possibly. I
  1189. 51:50just at at 40 to1 it feels like there's
  1190. 51:52not enough respect for Austin
  1191. 51:54Smotherman's game. And I'm looking at it
  1192. 51:57right now saying, okay, the guy has been
  1193. 51:59a very steady and very consistent ball
  1194. 52:02striker who now has the confidence in in
  1195. 52:05the putting. I think he has a mentality
  1196. 52:08that would allow something like this to
  1197. 52:11happen. So, it's a huge violation of a
  1198. 52:14rule for me. It feels like chasing, but
  1199. 52:18I I just feel like he's disrespected in
  1200. 52:20the odds. Um, so Austin Smotherman at 40
  1201. 52:23to1 feels way too long in this field. I
  1202. 52:28also have Steven Joerger at uh 43 to1.
  1203. 52:31Again, I don't know how this is going to
  1204. 52:33play with the driving of the golf ball.
  1205. 52:37Uh, are guys going to be hitting it out
  1206. 52:38of play or are inaccurate drivers going
  1207. 52:41to be able to find their ball and play
  1208. 52:43it? Stephen Jagger's one of he can get a
  1209. 52:46little wild off the tea.
  1210. 52:48Can he get wild off the tea to the
  1211. 52:50proper side? That's the big question
  1212. 52:52here. I I think he can. I think this is
  1213. 52:55the kind of golf course where Steven
  1214. 52:56Joerger's driving game can work. Um it
  1215. 52:59will he will he utilize the right
  1216. 53:01strategy? I don't know. Again, we don't
  1217. 53:04know what the right strategy is. I think
  1218. 53:06there's a lot of options and and that's
  1219. 53:09why I'm willing to take a chance on a
  1220. 53:11wild driver of the ball here because he
  1221. 53:13can have spike weeks with the approach
  1222. 53:15play and he's been putting pretty well
  1223. 53:17as well. So I I like Steven Joerger as
  1224. 53:20an outright of 43 to1. I I'm not a huge
  1225. 53:23fan in DFS um which I know is crazy. It
  1226. 53:26this just feels like more of a roll of
  1227. 53:28the dice to me. If you want to do that
  1228. 53:30in DFS, you can. Um, but I I think
  1229. 53:34Stephen Joerger, the place where he
  1230. 53:36makes the most sense to me is the
  1231. 53:38outright market at 43 to1.
  1232. 53:42Of course, I you know, you could take a
  1233. 53:43chance on a top 10 or something. I think
  1234. 53:45you got to go a little more aggressive
  1235. 53:47than a top 20 with Steven Joerger. Uh,
  1236. 53:50I'm going with him for the win. So,
  1237. 53:53that's what the grid looks like this
  1238. 53:54week. Kohl's over Cudy minus 105. Power
  1239. 53:58at plus 160 for a top 20. Trace Crow
  1240. 54:01plus 230 for a top 20. Chris Kirk plus
  1241. 54:04125 for a top 20. Austin Smotherman at
  1242. 54:0840 to1 in the outright market. And
  1243. 54:10Steven Joerger 43 to1 in the outright
  1244. 54:14market. I'm really looking forward to
  1245. 54:15seeing how uh the Fazio Canyons golf
  1246. 54:18course plays at Omni Barton Creek
  1247. 54:21Resort. I'm really looking forward to
  1248. 54:23this tournament. Looks like a pretty
  1249. 54:25strong field and I know it's going to be
  1250. 54:27a a fun time. So, we'll keep you up to
  1251. 54:30date with everything going on. The plan
  1252. 54:31right now is to do a Friday recap show
  1253. 54:34as well. Um, which I'm I'm looking
  1254. 54:37forward to and I'm looking forward to
  1255. 54:40watching some golf over these first
  1256. 54:42couple of days. I'm I'm trying to
  1257. 54:47stop sharing. I guess I could do that.
  1258. 54:49There we go. All right. Not quite
  1259. 54:51perfect, but here we go. Um, so like I
  1260. 54:54said, I'm really looking forward to
  1261. 54:55seeing how this plays. And after seeing
  1262. 54:57two rounds, I think we'll have a better
  1263. 54:59idea on Friday night of what to expect.
  1264. 55:02So, the plan is to do a halfway point
  1265. 55:05recap show. Sunday, there will
  1266. 55:07definitely be a show um recapping the
  1267. 55:09whole tournament. So, I'm I'm very much
  1268. 55:12looking forward to that. Again, if
  1269. 55:14you're a PGA Tour fan and you want
  1270. 55:16in-depth analysis, Second Cut Pod is the
  1271. 55:19place to be. Hit that subscribe button,
  1272. 55:22like the video, leave a comment in the
  1273. 55:24comment section. It's all very helpful.
  1274. 55:27You can also support the show. The best
  1275. 55:30way to support the show is to watch uh
  1276. 55:33to subscribe to the channel, watch the
  1277. 55:36episodes, listen to the episodes, which
  1278. 55:38you can also get the audio version
  1279. 55:40anywhere you get your podcasts. Um but
  1280. 55:43you can also support the show a little
  1281. 55:44more. You can join the Patreon. That
  1282. 55:47link is in the description. Um, the
  1283. 55:49Patreon is being revamped
  1284. 55:52this fall and it's going to be great and
  1285. 55:54very important in next spring. We're
  1286. 55:57going to do a oneanddone league with
  1287. 55:59paid Patreon members only. We're going
  1288. 56:01to play for some pretty cool prizes. Um,
  1289. 56:04they're going to be golf related prizes.
  1290. 56:06So, if you're interested in playing for
  1291. 56:09a GTS driver, maybe some fairway wood,
  1292. 56:12some irons. I don't have all these
  1293. 56:14details ironed out yet, but there will
  1294. 56:16be brand new titleist equipment
  1295. 56:19involved. Uh, I promise you that. I'm
  1296. 56:21going to give it away. So, we're not
  1297. 56:23going to play for money, but we're going
  1298. 56:24to have a really fun one and done league
  1299. 56:26here within the show. We'll talk about
  1300. 56:28it each and every week. Uh, I'll update
  1301. 56:30you on leaderboards throughout 2027, and
  1302. 56:34there will be more information coming on
  1303. 56:36that. The one catch is you have to be a
  1304. 56:38Patreon member. So, hit the link in the
  1305. 56:40description, join the Patreon. You'll
  1306. 56:43get the full model every week. You'll
  1307. 56:45get these episodes as well. I post them
  1308. 56:47there as well. Uh, all kinds of new
  1309. 56:51value coming your way to all those
  1310. 56:53Patreon members. Those of you who are
  1311. 56:55already in there, I appreciate your
  1312. 56:56help. So, um, thank you for supporting
  1313. 56:59the show and going above and beyond.
  1314. 57:01That's all we have for you here on this
  1315. 57:03Austin Championship preview. I'm Greg
  1316. 57:05Ducharm. We'll see you next time right
  1317. 57:08here on the second cut. Peace.

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