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Austin Championship + BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data - DFS Golf — Transcript

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0:00What's up guys? Rick here with your
0:01preview for this week's Austin
0:03Championship. And do not fast forward
0:05because I've got seismic announcements.
0:08I'm not going to make you wait anymore.
0:10The fall promo for rickr rungood.com
0:14is back. This is one of the most popular
0:17things I've done, but I don't think I've
0:18done it for a couple of years because it
0:20used to be a big headache. Here is how
0:22it works, and then I will explain
0:23everything. If you sign up or extend
0:27your membership on Rick Run good to a
0:30year, uh, you are going to receive a
0:33refund based on the winning score at the
0:37RSM Classic. That's right. You've got to
0:38bet me for the discount. I don't do
0:42promo codes. I don't do discounts. I
0:44think throughout the year, I don't do
0:45sales. I think I think throughout the
0:47year, like the membership is very fairly
0:49priced for me. Um, I rarely raise
0:53prices. is I always grandfather people
0:55and so I think it's a very fair thing.
0:56So I don't play like the promo code
0:58game, but a handful of years ago I
1:01started doing this and I have not done
1:04it every year because it used to be a
1:06big headache, but I think I've got it
1:08solved now. So here's how it works. Uh
1:10this is open to everybody. If you're a
1:13new member, boom, you you sign up for a
1:16yearly and then whatever the winning
1:17score is 21 under par, you're getting
1:1921% back. If you're an active member,
1:23boom, you can do it, too. You can just
1:25extend to you you add a year on and you
1:28are eligible for the same promo. Um, so
1:30that means, you know, if you if if it
1:32does get to 21 under par, you're getting
1:35like 50 bucks back, 48 bucks back, and
1:38the deeper underpar it goes, uh, the
1:41better for you, the worse for me. So, a
1:44couple years ago, Ludvig Goldberg won
1:46the RSM Classic at 29 underpar. That's
1:48right. So, everybody got a 29% refund on
1:53their membership. It's it's quite
1:55simple. That's it. Um, it's for the RSM
1:57Classic. It is not for the Austin
1:58Championship. This is again, like I
2:00said, beyond popular. It It was just a
2:04headache where Armina had to go through
2:06and manually do all these refunds every
2:09single year. It it you know, the system
2:12wasn't designed for this even though we
2:14did it. We the system is in a better
2:16place now. So, that is how it works. You
2:19just sign up for a yearly membership.
2:21Um, and everything else is taken care
2:24of. You're you're going to get emails
2:26telling you what to do. You're going to
2:27see what the what the what the prices
2:29are, but you don't really need to do
2:30anything. And you need to be in before
2:31the RSM Classic kicks off next week.
2:33That that is it. Uh, you can access this
2:36page in a variety of ways. It's on the
2:39Rickr rung good homepage. There is a
2:40banner rolling across the top with a
2:42countdown. Um, you can go to rickr
2:45rungood.com/bhenriick.
2:47You can just log in and go to your my
2:49account page. Um, you can just go to
2:51sign up for a new account and you'll see
2:53it there as well. I mean, it's it's
2:54everywhere, so you can't miss it. But if
2:56you do, uh, you know, let me know.
2:58There's there'll be a link in the
2:59description as well. But like I said,
3:00this is very popular. I'm I'm happy to
3:02offer it, but you got to bet me for the
3:04promo. Uh, I root for like 13 under, you
3:08guys root for like 33 under, and we see
3:10how it shakes out.
3:12That is big announcement number one. Big
3:14announcement number two, if you didn't
3:15see it, the oneandone world
3:17championships are live on Splash for
3:21next year. Two million I feel like Dr.
3:24Evil when I say that $2 million
3:27completely guaranteed. You guys are
3:29nuts. Um, you know, I've been doing
3:31these one and done for a long time. You
3:35know, in 2021, I think we had 200
3:37people, 200 entries, and I was doing it
3:39in a spreadsheet, and I was holding the
3:41money, and then we went to League Safe,
3:43and I didn't really like that either.
3:44And it's just like, it's nuts. And and
3:46NFL Survivor has gone crazy. Um, Golf
3:49One and Done has gone crazy. Splash
3:52being available in like 40 states and
3:54most of Canada has obviously helped
3:57this.
3:58$1.25 million was the guarantee last
4:01year. It's the largest one and done on
4:03the in the history of the internet. This
4:05is dwarfing that $2 million guaranteed.
4:09Same price point. Um,
4:12somebody asked me about multiple
4:14entries. You know, the guys at like they
4:17want they want 150 entries. I want like
4:19five. We settled at 25. It's 25 max. I
4:22will tell you like 99.9% of people will
4:25put one entry in. Um, but there are two
4:28different sixig prizes. The winner is
4:31going to get 200,000. The second play,
4:34the runner-up's going to get 100K. The
4:36lowest payout is double your buyin,
4:38which I wanted. And it pays out a,000
4:41people out of nearly 9,000. There are
4:44segments, six different segments. You
4:46win a segment, you get 15 grand. Pays
4:49out 25 spots in each segment. So, uh, a
4:52really strong structure that I had a lot
4:54of say in. It's live. Link in the
4:57description.
4:59It it's it's going to be amazing. So so
5:00so really really stoked for that.
5:02Obviously I do have one other
5:05announcement in regards to that, but I
5:06can't quite say it just yet. So we're
5:08gonna have to wait for for that. Uh
5:10Austin Championship Tiers. Oh, it was
5:12competitive last week. I I had a run at
5:14I think I finished second or third.
5:15Maybe tied for second. Um
5:18here we go. Back again. 10K, $25 an
5:20entry. One golfer from each of six
5:22tiers. Ben James is uh out. He withdrew.
5:25So, we're not going to have that Ben
5:26James tier 6 situation that we've been
5:28having for the for the last couple of
5:30weeks. But, uh, link for this is also in
5:32the description. Just, you know, a a
5:34great run of announcements uh, out of
5:36the gate. Just, you know, I couldn't be
5:39more grateful for you guys as a
5:41community to kind of, you know, let all
5:43this happen, right? Like, I think it's
5:45cool, but I have to find people that
5:46also think it's cool. And, you know, I
5:48think I found that. So, it's it's
5:50special. Makes me makes me very happy.
5:52All right. This week, the Austin
5:55Championship has gone through uh quite a
5:58bit here. So, obviously, it was the Good
6:00Championship, then that uh that didn't
6:02happen. They removed that. It is a new
6:06golf course. We have zero data on this
6:08place. So, this is the Omni Barton Creek
6:11Resort. This is the Fazio Canyons
6:14course. So this is a Tom Fazio design
6:17that was uh constructed opened in 1999
6:21and then recently they have done some
6:24renovations to it. No data whatsoever.
6:28It hurts my heart. Um I did I'll tell
6:31you what I did run some numbers and it
6:33is a smaller sample. I think there's
6:36only 25 of these instances recently. But
6:40when you go to a new course, um, a
6:42course that nobody has seen before, it
6:45does, uh, the last 24 rounds of recent
6:48form do correlate stronger to success
6:51than places that we're going back to for
6:55a repeat.
6:57Maybe it's noise, maybe it's not, but
6:59just a tick towards recent form a little
7:01bit and last 24 rounds being that recent
7:04form that I want to look at. Let's look
7:07at the satellite imagery. I was going
7:09through this this morning and I'm going
7:11to click through some of these holes
7:12pretty quickly here and just kind of
7:14give you an idea of what I'm looking for
7:16when I see this. I'm trying to find a
7:18couple of things particularly off the
7:20tea, right? Everybody starts from the
7:21same spot. That is where you can begin
7:23to uh assess these golf courses a little
7:26bit easier. Is there going to be a
7:28reward for being long off the tee? And
7:31is there going to be a penalty for being
7:33crooked off the tea? And as I click
7:35through some of these holes, what you're
7:36going to see is that there's there are
7:38uh tree lots of trees
7:41adjacently treelined.
7:44Some trees do encroach onto fairways or
7:48into rough like you're seeing here on
7:50the fourth hole. Um some very short
7:53holes and it's a traditional layout. So
7:56it's got the the the par 72, four par
7:593es, four parfs. The two par fives on
8:02the back nine are very short and going
8:04to be very getable. Um the way that I'm
8:07looking and just through just through
8:08the first four holes there, was there a
8:11big advantage for long hitters? Well, um
8:14you'd have to be very long and
8:16aggressive on number two. So, probably
8:18not. Everyone's probably going to play
8:20it to the dog leg, which is what I'm
8:22seeing. Um and again here, if you can
8:24carry it 310, you're now getting down to
8:27the uh thinnest part of the fairway.
8:30probably not super worth it. So just and
8:33then on the on four which is uh the
8:35short par the short par four like there
8:38is kind of a lot of trouble up there if
8:39you're trying to draw I guess you're
8:40just trying to drive it up into that
8:41bunker but a lot of guys are going to be
8:42able to get it past this set of trees.
8:44So within the first four holes do I see
8:47a big advantage for long hitters? Uh not
8:50more so than any other week, right? It's
8:52always an advantage. Uh then you get,
8:54you know, par five on on five and it's a
8:56dog leg. There are enough strategic dog
8:59legs here that make me think you're not
9:02going to be able to just bomb it around.
9:04Here's seven. You know, the fairway runs
9:06out. There's like a like a a creek. I
9:09guess it is Omni Barton Creek, whatever.
9:12That runs through the end of the fairway
9:14there. So, split fairway. So, no nope.
9:16You can't just cut it loose there. Um
9:20the the trees kind of give some weird
9:23framing. Um, you know, if I were to if I
9:25were to zoom this down to like the
9:28standing on the T- box view of what
9:30golfers are seeing, golfers like to see
9:32the the the way a hole is framed and and
9:35some of these trees encroach on the
9:38visual line. Like I don't think they're
9:40necessarily um
9:43hazards in the air, right, in some
9:45scenarios, but I I think that they are
9:48encroaching on sightelines, which is a
9:51little bit annoying. Um, here's here's
9:53that 310 mark. Okay. A pair of fairway
9:56bunkers that come into play. Like, yeah,
9:58if you can hit it 320. I mean, here you
10:01can't even do it on 10 because you'd be
10:02you'd be running out of fairway on this
10:04dog leg. So, I really don't think that
10:07there are a lot of spots where you can
10:11bomb it just without regard for where
10:13it's going to land. You're either going
10:15to have to shape a shot or you're going
10:17to have to play kind of a more
10:20uh I don't want to say safe shot, like a
10:22smarter shot to to the to the to the
10:25correct part of of of the fairways and
10:27then take it from there. And then this
10:28closing stretch 14 and on I think is
10:32going to be so getable. 14 is going to
10:33be the like maybe the easiest hole on
10:34the golf course. It's a par five that um
10:37serpentine's back. So, it's almost
10:40straight and it has one of the light
10:42wider landing areas and I think guys are
10:45going to shred that. And then four uh 15
10:49is you do get water coming into play.
10:51You could see you could see a swing
10:53water into play. The creek opens up into
10:54a a pond up here on the on the approach
10:58shot. So, you got to hit two strong
10:59shots on on 15. Um 16, whatever. 17 is
11:04okay. I mean, I guess it's not going to
11:05be easy. I think there's going to be a
11:06little bit of a, you know, uh, uh,
11:11volatility, I guess, is the word I'm
11:12looking for. Maybe like a TPC sawrass.
11:14And then 18, again,
11:17there's going to probably be a range of
11:19scores here because it's a pretty short
11:21par five that guys are going to be able
11:22to reach in two, but there is a creek
11:24that cuts through the end of the fairway
11:25and a creek that runs right up to the
11:26edge of the green. So, I think you are
11:28going to see fireworks over those last
11:30five holes or so. I think you're going
11:32to see some guys who play at like five
11:33under and I think you're going to see
11:34some guys who uh make a bogey here on 18
11:37and and and blow their chances. Um all
11:40that being said,
11:42I don't think that
11:45being only long I don't think is the is
11:49the key scenario. I think you've got to
11:51be accurate. I think you've you've got
11:53to be strategic a little bit. Um, and
11:55then really we're going to rely a lot on
11:58recent form, particularly last 24 rounds
12:01and go from there. Let's let's look at
12:04the field. All right. First and
12:06foremost, couple of things to note here.
12:08The pricing came out with Ben James and
12:13Michael Kim still in the field. They
12:16withdrew. So, there is kind of a I don't
12:19want to call it a gap, but Jackson Kybin
12:22is now the most expensive player by
12:25himself. He's he's the only guy in the
12:2610k range. Uh there might be more field
12:29changes at some point on Monday. Like,
12:32is Blade Brown's Blades Brown going to
12:34play? I don't know. Or is he just going
12:35to take the week off after the kind of a
12:37sick victory, right? Him and Ben James
12:39going at it. Um the other thing to note
12:42is if you're looking at this field and
12:43you're like, Rick, this is the same
12:45field as last week. You're basically
12:47right. Uh when I looked this morning,
12:50there were 99 players who play who were
12:54in this Austin championship field that
12:56played last week. Um it was nearly 80%
12:59of the field. Now Ben James is out,
13:01Michael Kim is out. I don't know if they
13:02got replaced with guys that were also
13:04playing last week, but you know, between
13:0675 and 80% of this field is exactly the
13:08same as it was last week, which is good,
13:10bad, indifferent. It doesn't really
13:12matter. It's just kind of the the facts.
13:14Um all right, so we've got the the top
13:16end here. There are I'm just going to
13:17lump Jackson Quinn in with the with the
13:199K guys. So, there's there's 10 guys 9K
13:22and above. Um I I I do believe there's a
13:25couple of things that that stand out
13:27here to me. First and foremost, when you
13:30So, I have this um filter for the last
13:3224 rounds, and I'll just sort by strokes
13:34gain total. Uh Doug Gim is the best
13:37player in this field over the last 24
13:39rounds. He's getting 1.97 strokes per
13:42round. It was second to Ben James who
13:44withdrew. Um, Doug Doug Gim is $9,800.
13:48Doug Gim, when you go read my article
13:50this week on uh PJour.com,
13:54when you when someone asks me, "Who are
13:57you picking to win on the Wednesday live
13:59chat? What's your card look like?" Doug
14:01Gim is going to be on there. Am I
14:03worried that Doug Gim has never won a
14:05golf tournament? Yes. Am I worried that
14:08Doug Gim in fact uh in this field is
14:11like the fifth has the fifth most PG
14:13tour starts without a win? Uh yes I am
14:16worried about that. Is it enough to keep
14:18me off of him? No it's not. Doug Gim is
14:21playing the best golf his life and three
14:23times better than the way he played last
14:25year. Doug Gim has found a consistent
14:29putter which is huge news because he's
14:32always been one of the best cheated
14:33green players in the world. This run of
14:36six straight is six straight top 20s. It
14:38is a runner-up finish in Utah, a T6 in
14:41Mexico. And now that Ben James is gone,
14:46there is a decent case to be made he's
14:48the best player in this field. Jackson
14:49Quinn aside, I suppose, right? Like if I
14:51was buying careers, Jackson Quiffin, if
14:54I'm buying this week at this price, it
14:57might be Doug Gim. Um, last 24 being
14:59such a strong And here's the other thing
15:01about Doug Gim. He missed these two
15:03cuts, Scottish Open, 3M Open.
15:06That that that's it. He was awesome
15:08before that. So, if you go back to the
15:09Texas Open, this is like 15 starts just
15:14piling up top 20s, top 15s, great
15:16results, great metrics, all of that fun
15:18stuff. So, if if there was a time for
15:22old Dougster to uh to get it across the
15:26finish line, this certainly feels like
15:28the spot. Uh, getting it across the
15:30finish line was difficult for Chris Kirk
15:32last week. And I used Chris Kirk in the
15:36threeandone, which I want to win so
15:38badly. I want to I cannot describe to
15:40you how badly I want to win the three
15:42and done. Um, the only thing that would
15:43that would be better is winning, you
15:45know, the fullon season, the one and
15:47done. But, you know, that's it's going
15:49to be tough. Odds are going to be
15:50against me uh with 9,000 entries, but I
15:53want that three and done so bad. I want
15:55it so bad. Chris Kirk,
15:58there are a lot of good takeaways from
16:00what I think was a pretty disappointing
16:01week last week. Um, he
16:06led led the tournament after round one.
16:08He was fantastic on Thursday. Then it
16:12kind of got worse after that. He was
16:14adjacent to contention all week, but he
16:18made too many big numbers. He made um
16:21two bogeies and two doubles on Friday.
16:23He made three bogeies on Saturday and he
16:26made a bogey and a double on Sunday and
16:28that was kind of a critical spot because
16:29he was charging up the Borg and to to
16:32put up those numbers and in those
16:34results in a scoring fest where you know
16:37you really couldn't let up uh and to
16:40still finish T12 I thought there were
16:42some good takeaways there. He was second
16:43in the field in strokes gained approach,
16:447.99 strokes gained on approach. Um the
16:47putter has heated up over his last two.
16:49His recent run has been great. you know,
16:51his fall is his worst finish in the fall
16:53is a T-21. He has uh two top 10
16:56finishes. He has three top 10 finishes
16:58in his last six starts. The T it's just
17:01it's when he putts, he's kind of a
17:03gamecher. He just needs to keep the
17:05crooked numbers off the board. That that
17:06is the thing for Chris Kerr. He made
17:08enough birdies and Eagles and whatever
17:10else to win last week. He made a he you
17:14cannot make three doubles in Cabo. You
17:16you you cannot make three doubles in
17:18Cabo. Um, and he doesn't win. And he
17:22doesn't win. But will he be, you know,
17:24do I I generally think it is easier for
17:26a guy to clean up the doubles than to go
17:30out and make more birdies because the
17:31the rest of the advanced metrics are are
17:33fantastic. So the the T12 to me last
17:35week feels like it was actually a lot
17:38better of a result.
17:40So those two are probably my favorite
17:41all things considered. But if you if we
17:44get to Wednesday and we see that Jackson
17:46Quinn is not that popular or we see Bla1
17:49Brown is not that popular, I I'm I'm
17:52running those guys back out there.
17:53Jackson Quinn is probably the best
17:55player in this field. Um what we saw
17:57from him in Cabo was a little bit of a
17:58slow start and he played great the final
18:00three days. He shot a 72 under par in
18:02the opening round and then he improved
18:03his position the rest of the week. Um
18:06Blades Brown, I mean I I
18:09the man, right? I mean has has been
18:11building towards that moment last week
18:14all year long. He gets it done.
18:16Everybody's happy. Amazing. He is
18:18capable of getting nuclear with the
18:19putter. He's got all this built-in ball
18:21striking stuff. How is he going to react
18:24after his first win? I don't think it's
18:26m I think it's kind of business as
18:28usual. Right. Here's a kid who's 19
18:30years old. He's mature beyond his years.
18:32He's he's got all the if he if he plays
18:35if he plays, right? And and I guess
18:36we'll find out probably at some point on
18:37on Monday if he plays. um you know
18:42he is so mature cuz he's been a
18:44professional for so long and I also
18:46think there's this thing that happens
18:47like right now where Bla1 Brown is like
18:48okay yeah I want to celebrate that win
18:50but I can celebrate that win in two
18:53weeks because in two weeks I'm going to
18:55get a handful of weeks off and I'm going
18:59to sit and ste like we're still
19:01sprinting to me it feels like we are
19:02still sprinting to the finish line here
19:04and things can get even better for for
19:06for Blades Brown in the next two weeks
19:08just Don't celebrate just yet. So, um
19:11yeah, I I mean I hope to I hope to
19:14not hear anything quite frankly implying
19:17that he's going to tee it up this week.
19:18Um he is in the 100th percentile of
19:20birdie makers, right? 27 and a half%.
19:22It's it's it's insane. He's above
19:24average in every category. He's nearly
19:25elite in every category across both the
19:27Cornferry Tour and the PGA Tour. Kind of
19:29some sneakier options. You know, Andrew
19:31Novak worries me about his accuracy a
19:33little bit. you know, he drove it well
19:35in uh Mexico in his win, but that is,
19:38you know,
19:40not not a surprise. Um, so we're we're
19:44going to see what he does bouncing back
19:45off off of the victory. I think it's
19:47like, okay, I give him like a five and a
19:50half out of 10. Brian Harmon's probably
19:52the sneakiest one here because Brian
19:54Harmon had this two months off from the
19:56FedEx in Memphis to the Bay Current and
19:59the Bay Current happens in the middle of
20:00night of the night for for North America
20:02and and I don't even realize people saw
20:04that he finished fourth at the Bay
20:06Current in in that field and uh it
20:09didn't even really have his his best
20:10stuff in my opinion. So now we go to a
20:13golf course that in theory should reward
20:16some of the more accurate drivers. The
20:18guy who the guys who can kind of get you
20:20through four rounds and and not make a
20:22bunch of bogey like this feels like a
20:24good spot for him. He hasn't played a
20:25lot but when he's played he's played
20:26really well. This that this feels like
20:29the Brian Harmon spot as he you know he
20:31plays probably plays this week. Uh I'm
20:34so he plays this week, almost certainly
20:35plays next week in at home in Sea Island
20:37and then he gets his little he gets his
20:39break after a uh a twoe stretch. The 8K
20:43range. Uh you are going to have to claw
20:46Sheamus Power out of my cold dead hands
20:49if you think I'm not clicking his name
20:51repeatedly this week. He might be the
20:54best player in the fall. Should we look
20:55that up? everybody in this field uh
20:59since
21:00September. I guess we could just say
21:02like September 1st, right? And then say
21:06uh let's just do PJ tour only so that we
21:08just get, you know, the fall. Everything
21:11else should be good. Apply this. Is
21:13Sheamus Power the best player in the
21:14field in this fall now that Ben James is
21:17gone?
21:18Let's find out.
21:21Second. Uh but he's got one more start
21:24than Austin Smotherman. So, so here you
21:26go. Smotherman has two wins.
21:30Uh,
21:32and he is the only guy better than
21:33Sheamus Power. The guy in third, Andrew
21:36Novak, has a win. The guy in fifth,
21:38Blades Brown, has a win. Ben James is
21:41out of this field. So, really, Bla1
21:42Brown is in fourth. So, what are we
21:45missing here? The guy who's played the
21:46best this fall is basically the only one
21:48without a win. Lost in a playoff to
21:50Austin Smotherman. Sheamus Power has
21:52gone seventh, 21st runner up in a
21:54playoff in Bermuda and then eighth last
21:56week. He did you notice Did you notice
21:58what he did? Um he closed like a maniac
22:02last week. He was uh I don't He made the
22:05cut on the number. Okay. Makes the cut
22:07on the number.
22:096970 on on the first two days. Then he
22:12gains five and a half strokes to the
22:13field on Saturday and 2.6 on Sunday.
22:18second best player on the weekend to end
22:20up finishing T8. Backdoors it. Uh so now
22:25of his 16 rounds this fall,
22:30he has lost strokes to the field once.
22:33He is 15 for 16
22:36in gaining strokes to the field. Uh he
22:39lost two strokes in the opening round in
22:42Utah and he worked his way back to
22:44finish T-21.
22:46Wow.
22:47Uh yeah, I mean, good luck. You're I'm
22:50clicking his name everywhere. Tell you
22:52right now, if I didn't use him in the
22:53three and done already, I'm going to be
22:55using him. David Ford,
22:58his 2026, remember this is his first
23:00year comes up through PJ Tour. The first
23:03the the first year on first year on the
23:06circuit. Uh good, not great, very
23:09inconsistent, lot of raw talent,
23:13not a lot of consistency.
23:15That is starting to change. Three out of
23:18his last four he's gained multiple
23:19strokes on approach. The putter's been
23:20good all year. He's elite with the
23:22driver. And now he's got his two best
23:24finishes in his last four starts. But
23:27all of that is this fall. The runner the
23:29third place finish in Utah and then the
23:31fifth last week at El Cardinal where he
23:33gained six strokes off the tee at a
23:35place where I didn't really think you
23:37could gain six strokes off the tee
23:38because the fairways are so wide and all
23:39that stuff. But when you drive it 306
23:42yards and hit 96% of your fairways.
23:45Yeah. He missed three rounds he hit all
23:48three fair all all every single fairway.
23:50Yeah. So so pretty good.
23:53I uh you know lost in the Ben James and
23:56Blades Brown and Jackson Quaven
23:58conversations are the David Ford
24:00conversations where he is uh a very
24:03talented like 24 year old who
24:07has an accomplished amateur career who
24:09is starting to find it on the PGA Tour.
24:12Really, really good stuff. An accurate,
24:13you know, a lot of these young guys are
24:15just bombers. He's not. I mean, I I
24:17mentioned last week, I mean, everybody
24:18hit the ferry last week. He's like uh 96
24:21percentile in driving accuracy. That's
24:23for the year. So So he is not
24:28he's not just like bomb and gouge like
24:30some of these guys. Uh Chris Ventura. So
24:33this is the other one where you're
24:35you're quiet again. It's been quiet.
24:37He's made all all he's made five cuts in
24:40a row. Five out of six in the fall. And
24:42he played well in Mexico. The runner-up
24:44finish at the Mexico Open of Adant
24:46Viarta. not a lot of great results, but
24:49if he can putt like he did in the last
24:50three, you start to get some uh you
24:53know, perceived perform uh performance
24:55boost. He's long and accurate off the
24:57te. He's he's well into the upper
24:59percentiles of of torren both of those.
25:02Again, struggles on approach, struggles
25:04with the putter, but that's the thing
25:05that's kind of carried him the last half
25:07of the year. A lot of those a lot of
25:09those horrible rounds are here from the
25:13beginning of the year until the John
25:15Deere. He was miserable. He made one cut
25:19by himself. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11. 11
25:24out of 12 cuts he missed solo. Finished
25:27runner up in Zurich. But that was uh
25:29that's a team event. That's me. So, this
25:32drags down a lot of his seasonl long
25:34metrics, which is why when you go to the
25:36last 24 in the cheat sheet, he's
25:38probably
25:40uh yeah, he's right here. He's ninth
25:42from 8,900 and down. He's gaining
25:44threequarters of a stroke per round.
25:46Very, very solid. The last half of his
25:48year has been really strong
25:51since July 12th. The Isco.
25:54Yeah, good stuff. I like that. Trending
25:57properly.
25:59The 7K range I I kind of think is just
26:01like we're going back to the same guys
26:03unfortunately. I don't know if I have
26:04any super new analysis here. You know,
26:07I'm going to lump Trace Crow and Neil
26:09Shipley together. They're both accurate
26:10drivers of the ball. They're both
26:12gaining nearly actually Trace Crow's
26:14over a stroke per round. A stroke and a
26:15quarter per round in his last 24. Neil
26:17Shipley's point8. If you look at how
26:19they do it, it's it's um it's been kind
26:22of similar, right? So So last week was a
26:23little bit disappointing for Trace Crow.
26:25He finished 50th, but all of that is
26:27from the three and a half strokes uh he
26:30loses with the putter, which is in his
26:32range of outcomes. That that is
26:33something that he does. He lost five and
26:35a half to the Rocket Classic. It doesn't
26:37usually mean it's going to continue. He
26:39bounced right back and gained strokes
26:41the next week. He went from gaining five
26:43and a half to seven to losing three and
26:46a half over the last three weeks. That's
26:47probably a pretty easy place where if he
26:49gained four strokes playing next week,
26:51you wouldn't be surprised at all. And
26:52now that's basically a seven or eight
26:54shot difference. Neil Shipley's the same
26:56thing, right? He lost 5.2 strokes
26:58putting last week. That is in his range
27:00of outcomes. That is what he does. He
27:02lost He also lost six on approach.
27:04That's pretty bad. Uh not always in his
27:07range. I mean he's done it. He's done
27:08it, but um you not that often. You think
27:12that bounces back, right? I mean he
27:16how he's lucky he did that on the
27:18weekend because it was the two bad
27:19rounds on the weekend which is why he
27:20finished 74th. If he did that on
27:22Thursday and Friday, he just would have
27:23missed the cut. But
27:25these guys are young, volatile,
27:30like they're both they're both accurate
27:32drivers. Pretty good spot for him.
27:34Alvaro Ortiz is kind of balling out
27:36right now. He he does it in a way that
27:38does not particularly model great.
27:40Relies on the short game and all that
27:41fun stuff, but I mean, he's rolled this
27:43from the win in the cornfairy tour in
27:46September. um another, you know, 15th
27:49and 24th there and then the Cornfair
27:50Tour Championship, ninth. He plays well
27:53at both places in Mexico. Like he's a
27:56stud. Well, sorry, I I shouldn't say
27:59that.
28:00He's a very good player. [laughter]
28:02I don't know why I got like all bent out
28:04of shape on Alvaro Ortiz, but he has two
28:07wins this year on the cornfairy tour.
28:10He's playing well. The metrics are not
28:11the most sustainable metrics in the
28:13world, but he is routinely getting it
28:15done. He's more accurate than he is long
28:16off the tea. Uh which goes for Zack
28:19Blair as well.
28:21The the truth of the matter is we don't
28:23know the way this is going to play. This
28:25golf course is going to play. I can make
28:26educated guesses. I think guys like Zack
28:30Blair are going to be just fine. He's
28:32going to live out of the fairway. He's
28:33not going to have to worry about the dog
28:35legs. He's not going to have to worry
28:36about bringing in some of the trouble in
28:37some of the narrow spots. He's long
28:39enough to get to, you know, at least the
28:41fives into or up close by the G. It's
28:43just like I I don't see any real
28:45disadvantage for being the guy who hits
28:47at 275 and hits every single fairway
28:50than the guy who hits 310 and hits like
28:5260% of the fairways. Like I don't know
28:54how much of a difference that's going to
28:57be when when the week is over. And Zack
28:59Blair, despite his very clear
29:01deficiency, which is that he hits it as
29:03far as I do off the tea, um has put
29:06together
29:08four top 25s out of his last five
29:10starts. And the place that he missed the
29:12cut was probably the worst place for
29:14him. Like like the thing with Zack Blair
29:17is that he plays well on golf courses
29:20that he should play well on
29:23because he has to and he usually does.
29:28The only other ones in this range that I
29:30think, you know, I could sprinkle on
29:33Steven Joerger. I I I don't love the way
29:36he sprays it off the tea, but everything
29:37else is awesome and he's capable of
29:40finishing pretty highly. Um
29:43I think there was somebody else here.
29:47Um
29:49who was the other one?
29:52Oh, I think this is a pretty good setup
29:53for Davis Thompson. Just the way he tees
29:56it. He's usually pretty accurate, pretty
29:58long, hits a lot of greens in
30:00regulation. Cannot putt. He's have to
30:02figure that out. Like that's
30:03interesting. Oh, the la the other one
30:04was Taylor Moore. Taylor Moore is still
30:07a huge uh approach putting guy, right?
30:11Which is what we saw in Bermuda. Then he
30:12withdrew. Remember he withdrew before
30:16um Vdanta Varta like on Monday like
30:19never teed off. Then he played last
30:21week, missed the cut. I don't know what
30:25he lost six and a half strokes off the I
30:27don't even know how that is possible.
30:28And he hit 96% of his fairways.
30:34He must have hit like three balls OB.
30:38Now I got to look.
30:40Holy hell. Yeah. All right. So these two
30:43holes alone. So 13 on Friday. He hit one
30:47in the jungle.
30:49OB had to rete the very next hole.
30:53Did he hit two out? Yeah, he did.
30:57Penalty. How'd they not find the How'
31:00they not find those in the native area?
31:04Okay, so it was three penalties. What
31:06What do you do on Oh my gosh. Oh my
31:08goodness. Uh had a penalty off the tea
31:11on 12 on Thursday. Oh my god. Another
31:15one on one.
31:17That's five penalties off the tea at
31:19least that I'm just scrolling through.
31:22I guess that's how you do it. It's not
31:25that bad off the tea. But how did that
31:27this there the curious case of Taylor
31:29Moore I don't know what's I don't know
31:32why he withdrew and if they're connected
31:36to five balls OB I would love to know
31:40that that's concerning.
31:44Okay the 6K range interesting names Cole
31:49Sherwood is 6800.
31:51This profile looks a hell of a lot like
31:54Alvaro Ortiz's profile. A cornferry tour
31:58guy who had a lot of success on the
31:59Cornferry Tour this year, including a
32:01win, which he won in May, and a lot of
32:04top 10s, top 15s, top 20s since then.
32:07His most recent start was the Cornferry
32:09Tour Championship, which was a couple
32:10weeks ago. He finished T6. We do have
32:12the stroke team numbers from the
32:13Cornfair Tour this year. That's new this
32:15year. Elite off the tea, volatile on
32:18approach, and capable of putting pretty
32:20well. This is a very good profile for a
32:24uh a cornfer tour player. Lot of talent,
32:27big-time birdie maker, unbelievable off
32:29the tea, struggles around the green.
32:32He's average on approach, but he's even
32:33the average on approach is like he might
32:35be minus five or plus five, which he
32:36might contend if he's plus five.
32:40Like this profile a lot. He's going to
32:42be again another 24 year old. Another 24
32:46year old from Dallas who's kind of
32:47crushing the corner tour. Like he's
32:48going to be around for a while. Isaiah
32:50Celinda, I've described him as one of
32:52the better drivers. Actually, I've not
32:54described him as that. I've described
32:56him as other pros telling me he's one of
32:58the better drivers on the PGA Tour. Um,
33:01you're you're seeing a lot of
33:03inconsistency. T18 at El Cardinal, but
33:06he misses the cut in Mexico, but it's
33:08T11 in Bermuda, but he misses the cut in
33:11in Utah. And he's kind of doing this
33:12like every other week thing. And he is
33:16to to me, he is not that far off. He's a
33:19He's a guy who really struggles putting
33:22but gained nearly four strokes putting
33:23last week. Has a great driver most of
33:26the time. This is not the end of the
33:28world. Uh for someone down here at only
33:32$6,900 and 100 to one, I probably prefer
33:35Sherwood more, but Celinda will be when
33:38I get to like tier six or whatever. Um
33:42Celinda is probably going to get a
33:43couple of clicks for me.
33:46And then Kensei Herata,
33:50we were starting to have to take him
33:53more seriously,
33:55but now I also think this is matching up
33:58with a great course fit. So his last
34:01three, so he played Bermuda, played in
34:04Vdant Viarta, and he played in Cabo.
34:0634th, 11th, and fourth, but I'm more
34:09impressed with what he did on approach,
34:11which is completely different than
34:12anything he's done prior to this. So he
34:14gained that is more than 10. It's more
34:17than 11 strokes on approach in those 11
34:19rounds. A stroke per round. If you go
34:21back the rest of his year, not good on
34:24approach. So I don't know what he found,
34:25what the thought, what the um uh swing
34:28thought is, anything like that, but it
34:30is a stroke per round in his last 11.
34:33Then I don't know what the swing thought
34:36is, what the what the putter is doing,
34:38but now he's gained nine strokes putting
34:40in those 11 rounds, which is again
34:43completely different than anything we've
34:46seen all year. Is he just on a heater?
34:49It's like
34:52the Monstars gave him his skills back.
34:54He's a freaky Friday situation. He looks
34:57like a completely different player in
34:59his last 11 rounds than anything else
35:02we've seen at any point. this year.
35:06And now he's going to go to a golf
35:09course. I mean, he's 296 off the tea,
35:11but 70% in accuracy. So, it's 40th in
35:14percentile and distance and 92nd in
35:16accuracy, which I think is going to be
35:19pretty good. So, now his DNA finally
35:22gets a little bit of a boost. And he
35:25looks like the hottest play. Like, okay,
35:27I'm going to let's cherrypick.
35:29Everybody in this field last 12 rounds.
35:35Kense Herata is the seventh best player
35:37in this field over the last 10 rounds.
35:39Andrew Novak, Blades Brown, Austin
35:41Smotherman, Sheamus Power, Doug Gim,
35:43Chris Kirk, Hense Herat, Ken Herata.
35:46Those guys account for four wins
35:50uh and a three runner-up finishes and a
35:54bunch of top 10s in those 12 rounds. And
35:57then here's Herata who is $6,500.
36:01What?
36:03What?
36:04I'm going to favorite him just so I
36:06don't forget.
36:08It's interesting. Let's go to the custom
36:10model. Let's run a model here.
36:13We need to
36:16uh number one,
36:18we've got to do strokes gain total last
36:2124. That is it's going to be pretty
36:23important. Uh 33.
36:28Okay.
36:32I don't really know
36:36what else to do. No, what we'll do is um
36:39I think there's going to be a couple
36:40things here and I want to I want to do
36:42both of them. Birdies Birdie or better
36:45gained last 50 like what kind of what
36:48kind of scorer are you for 20 and bogey
36:51avoidance last 50 for 20.
36:54I think there are some spot there's like
36:56a couple of spots you could make a
36:57double out here pretty stupidly. So
37:00don't do that. Um we've got 73
37:05saved.
37:07Um, we could do
37:12could do par 72. It's a very
37:13traditional, but we don't really usually
37:14ever do that. Let's do it. Last 100
37:16rounds on par 72s for 15.
37:20What does that leave us?
37:2512.
37:28Bonus putting.
37:31Last 36 rounds of bonus putting for 12.
37:33Let's do it. Let's just see what happens
37:34here. My number one, yeah, my number one
37:38golfer is Blades Brown. My number two is
37:41Doug Gim, Alvaro Ortiz, Ben Kohl's,
37:45Sheamus Power,
37:47Trace Crow, Zack Bosshu, Jordan Smith,
37:50Jackson Quin, and Cole Sherwood. You
37:55dirty dog. $6,800 getting in there in
37:57the top 10.
38:01This is really interesting. It's going
38:03to be a weird week, I think.
38:07You've got the same players playing a
38:09golf course that nobody's seen.
38:12Young, volatile talent at the top of the
38:15board.
38:17Let me save this. Hold on. Save this.
38:192026. What event is this? Austin Champ.
38:24Save. Now you guys should be able to
38:26access this, too.
38:28Okay.
38:30Um,
38:32the fall promo, which again, I I don't
38:35ever do this, is live. Um, you gotta bet
38:38me for it. Links in the description.
38:41One and done. Link is in the
38:42description. If you have any questions,
38:44let me know. If you know what's going on
38:45with Taylor Moore, let me know. If you
38:48want to say what's up, let me know. It's
38:51going to be a fun week. I'm looking
38:52forward to it. I'll see you guys later.

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