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Austin Championship 2026 Picks, Bets & Course Preview | Fazio Canyons + WWT Recap, Blades WINS — Transcript

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0:00What are some hallmarks of his courses?
0:02What are the other ones that we see on
0:03the PGA tour? Because he has a lot of
0:05like redesign credits where I think that
0:07they'll give Riviera to him and PGA
0:09National to him. Like when you see what
0:11he's put his hands on, not necessarily
0:14designed by, but at least came to do
0:16some renovations, too.
0:18>> Well, I mean, probably the most
0:20prominent Fazio spot you're going to
0:22hear, you know, on the PJ tour is Quail
0:24Hollow, but these two places have
0:26nothing in common. I I would again I
0:29would be looking at places like TPC Deer
0:31Run. I'd be looking at the Cliffs at
0:33Walnut Clove. I would be looking at
0:35Colonial. I would be looking at TPC San
0:38Antonio's uh what's that? The Oaks
0:39Course. Like those are the places that I
0:41would be looking at. Places that um when
0:44guys are driving the ball very well and
0:46their approach game is elite in the
0:49field, then they're able to score on
0:52those venues. And um there is going to
0:55be a certain degree of um like a good
0:58drives gained is a good stat for this
1:01week. You know, guys that only miss the
1:03fairway by a little bit, but maybe they
1:05push it down there a little bit further.
1:06Like this this I feel like is a good
1:08week for that. Uh you know, how many
1:10greens in regulation can you hit from
1:12the fairway or anywhere near the fairway
1:14um under these circumstances? And you
1:17know, places like Deer Run and others,
1:19um, Inisbrook, they have a lot of
1:20elevation changes, and these guys are
1:22going to be hitting a lot of shots
1:23uphill and downhill. And if you're good
1:26at doing that, generally speaking, then
1:28you can adjust a lot. But I I don't
1:32think there's a ton of like Fazio comps,
1:35you know? I I just wouldn't I wouldn't
1:36look at Reese Jones courses because he's
1:38the US Open doctor and say, well, if
1:39he's good at Reese Jones courses, he's
1:41going to be good at all the US Opens.
1:42So, I I wouldn't blanket statement that.
1:44I would look more at like what the skill
1:46set is. That's, you know, Sedgefield's a
1:49great um golf course comp this week. You
1:52know, really difficult par 3es, just a
1:54couple par fives, and then you got to be
1:55able to score on Bermuda grass par fours
1:58>> at Mayo Experience.
2:06This is the final word on the Austin
2:09Championship picks, bets, preview, plus
2:12a recap with last week on the Pat Mayo
2:14experience presented by underdog Keith
2:16Stewart catching an early morning flight
2:19back from Florida with some money to
2:22come home to. Blades Brown is a winner
2:24for you, sir. Congratulations. All you
2:26needed was for me to stop betting Blades
2:28Brown and boom, he's a winner.
2:31>> Well, I'll tell you what, Pat. Uh,
2:33thanks for the uh, congratulatory
2:35statement there.
2:37Full disclosure.
2:39>> I, uh, and I texted you this on Thursday
2:43because, oh man, I tell you, we go back
2:46and forth on these things all the time
2:48and we had talked a lot about Matthew
2:50Pavone last week on the show. I had
2:52Matthew Pavone as like my deep reach on
2:54the card. About 20 minutes before I
2:57published on Wednesday morning, I said,
2:58"You know what? I just don't see how
3:01Matthew Pavone pulls it off for four
3:03rounds. I said, "I'm switching to Blades
3:06Brown." Sure enough, I tune in on
3:08Thursday morning for the start of the
3:10tournament and I text you. What did I
3:12text you? You said, "Pavon out, Blades
3:15in." and I was sitting there with Pavon
3:17in my hand without even a first round
3:19leader on Pavon, which would not have
3:20won, but after the first like four, what
3:23was he four under through four?
3:25>> He was like six under through four or
3:27something. It was It was He was
3:28incredible. And uh um just goes to show
3:31you no need to panic on a Thursday
3:33unless you're chasing a first round
3:34leader, which I was. I had Nick Dunlap
3:37at 125 to1 to be first round leader and
3:39he bogeies the second to last hole
3:42knowing that Chris Kirk has the final
3:45par five to play because Dunlap had
3:47started on the back and goes to the
3:48front and just you could feel it. It was
3:50just over. Like if he got in at nine, it
3:52felt like it was going to be a split.
3:54You had a chance. If he snuck a birdie
3:55in somewhere, he would have been first
3:57round leader. And that was just jamming
3:59it right in my gut.
4:01>> Uh, talk about jamming it in your gut. I
4:03had Dunlop for a top 40 and he didn't
4:05even clear that. And he was one off and
4:07he, you know, he was one off the the
4:09lead on Thursday. I mean, it's
4:11unbelievable.
4:12>> He started Sunday really good, too.
4:15>> Yeah. You know, it just goes to show you
4:17if you're not a really good ball
4:18striker, um, and you get hot and cold
4:20like that and those types of fields,
4:22especially at that place, um, you could
4:24eject pretty quickly. Allah Denny
4:26McCarthy, but had Ben James, had Blades
4:30Brown felt pretty good in the playoff.
4:32Um, so, you know, I was happy that the
4:35the higher number one, but either one of
4:37those two young guys, uh, I hope
4:39hopefully Jim Furick was paying
4:41attention.
4:42>> You think that both of them? That's
4:44interesting because Koven was obviously
4:46on the President's Cup team. Kven was in
4:48this field and you know did not end up
4:50in the playoffs. So is this just the new
4:52wave of American players? Are we seeing
4:54it all come at one time? Uh I I think
4:58so. Again, we'll go back like nine 10
5:00months. When I asked you the question, I
5:01said, "Who is good under 25 here in
5:04America?" And you came up with a which
5:06was a great answer at the time. A couple
5:08weeks later, he ends up winning API. um
5:11you know, really strong kind of
5:14prediction at that time, but we were all
5:16like, well, who else is the guy? Who are
5:18going to be the guys that are going to
5:19fill in for these guys that are turning
5:2130 and getting older? Obviously, we're
5:23not worried about Scotty, but some of
5:24these other guys are getting up there in
5:25age, and we were looking for some new
5:28American stars. And we were talking a
5:30lot about Ludvig and and the Hogard
5:32brothers and just a lot of guys
5:34overseas. Chakara, um, Anel Alo Rojo,
5:37like all these different names and we
5:42didn't have any American names to go
5:43back and forth on. Hence, it begs the
5:45question and now we just have a plethora
5:47of these guys. Now, I'm not saying that
5:48Jim Furick needs to pick both these guys
5:50or including Ko and all three of them,
5:52but what I am saying is that there is
5:55now a half a dozen of these elite young
5:58guys. Throw Brennan in there, throw
6:00Torbyson in there, coming into the 2027
6:03season, they're going to shake things up
6:05a little bit. I I I definitely see these
6:08guys winning multiple tournaments, this
6:10six we're talking about. Um, and
6:13probably one of them at least winning
6:15two or three tournaments next year and
6:16and really putting themselves in a
6:18position to go to a dare.
6:20>> I can see it. It's not a bad strategy,
6:22especially going to foreign soil as well
6:25that do you want to regurgitate the guys
6:27that have gone over there and lost the
6:29past few times or do you just throw some
6:31fresh blood and and it's all going to
6:32depend on how these guys end up playing
6:34throughout the course of the year. No
6:36one is saying like, "Hey, don't bring
6:37Scotty Sheffler. Don't bring Cam Young."
6:39Like even with Cam Young, Chris
6:41Goddarup, if Brennan can vault himself
6:43up into that tier, and that's was he had
6:46fantastic year. We love Michael Brennan
6:47on this show. Let's see how he does it
6:49against like the real tournaments this
6:51time.
6:53>> Hey, the those signature events, you
6:55play against the same 70 guys all the
6:57time with no cut, so you get four rounds
6:59to prove yourself. It'll be very
7:01interesting. Um your boy Michael Kim, he
7:04snuck himself up there into Pebble Beach
7:06and Riviera. Congratulations to him. Uh
7:08guy made a great run on Sunday just one
7:11shot back.
7:12>> Well, when I I was he texted me after
7:14the round because I I had told him that
7:15like hey Novak won last week. I like
7:18you're going to win this week because
7:19the only two people on the show are
7:21going to win backtoback weeks who've
7:22been on this show as golfers. So I had
7:23my money on Michael Kim. So you got to
7:25all the glory of having both the guys in
7:27the playoffs. Mike just left his putt on
7:2917 a little bit low of the hole. It felt
7:32like he needed to go birdie birdie or
7:34par eagle in order to get himself in
7:37there because it didn't seem like Blades
7:38Brown was going to mess up. And I can
7:40probably say it because I think he said
7:41it at the postgame when he did his press
7:44conference afterwards. But the first
7:45thing he texted me is like this. He's
7:47like Blades Brown is legit. He's like, I
7:49played with Kovven and I've played with
7:50Blades Brown. Like Blades Brown is
7:52something different when it comes to
7:54some of these young players. Like he's
7:56that good.
7:57Well, I'll tell you what, Pat. I I felt
7:59your pain on early early Sunday morning.
8:02I had my seventh runner up on the LPGA
8:04Tour this season. Uh if you count the
8:06four winners, that's 11 first or second
8:09places on the LPGA tour this year in 28
8:11events that I've handicapped. That's
8:13like almost that's like 39% of the
8:15events we've come in first or second. Um
8:18seven of which have been runner up. So,
8:20I I definitely feel your pain with
8:21Michael Kim. when it comes to Blades
8:23Brown, go back and listen to Ryan Lavner
8:26from the Golf Channel. Like, interview
8:27him afterwards or go listen to his press
8:29conference. This kid's 19. Like, I just
8:32went down to visit my son down at
8:34Gainesville at the University of Florida
8:35this past weekend. And, you know,
8:37there's a million 19 year olds running
8:39around like a bunch of fools, like with
8:40their heads cut off. And this kid, he's
8:42thanking his parents, he's thanking his
8:44sponsors. I mean, like the poise and the
8:46perspective that this young man has, I
8:49mean, it's just absolutely fantastic.
8:51So, um, I've been asked this question
8:53many times. They said, "Coven or Blades
8:55Brown?" back when Kovven won the 3M. And
8:57I said, "I'm still buying more stock in
8:59Blades Brown. I'm sticking to it. It
9:01looks good right now. Recency bias,
9:03whatever. But those two guys,
9:07man, those are some good young talent
9:09here in the United States for sure.
9:11>> They feel like two wildly different
9:13players though, even just to see what
9:15their skill sets are. It feels like
9:17Quinn is more of your overall balanced
9:19type of player where it seems like
9:21Blades Brown has never found a pin he
9:24will not fire at
9:27>> and he can do it.
9:28>> Yeah. I mean
9:32>> Blades Blades Brown weirdly reminds me
9:36uh I he doesn't obviously have the
9:37driving distance to go along with it.
9:38maybe this comp is too high that there
9:40players of this ilk and you know what
9:42I'll even call it let's say call it
9:43Seiwoo that when Seiwoo would get hot it
9:46felt like he was one of the top five
9:47players in the world because there's no
9:49pin that he couldn't hit it five feet on
9:51everyone else is like well you got to
9:53bail out a little bit to the right
9:54because that's the miss you really don't
9:56want to go left he was like no no no I'm
9:58just gonna fire at that pin and it's
9:59gonna land by that pin and when he had
10:02it going he was doing it just he didn't
10:04get it going that often young Rory was
10:06kind of that way too where it would just
10:07be I'm gonna I'm gonna take this on.
10:09I've got the shot. I'm gonna take it on.
10:10Hunter Maym was a lot like this where
10:13there were weeks where you watched
10:14Hunter Maym and thought, "How isn't this
10:17guy a top three player in the world?
10:18There's just he doesn't hit it outside
10:20of five feet ever." And that's how it
10:22felt with Blades Brown this week and
10:24when he's been going on these runs.
10:25Hence why he tends to do really well
10:27with these birdief fests. But the way
10:28that he can pair his putting to go along
10:30with this that
10:32>> it's not that he's just tapping in
10:33fivefooters the entire time when he is
10:35off by a little bit. Oh, all of a sudden
10:36he's just walking in 25footers. So, I
10:38thought that was interesting with him
10:40where Koven just seems like Koven seems
10:42like a veteran type player in a young
10:44guy's body, weirdly enough. Although,
10:46that swing scares the [ __ ] out of me.
10:48Yeah, you see a lot of in that swing and
10:51we've mentioned that before. I I think
10:53Quavenven's more built for major
10:55championships at this point, but he's
10:57also three or four years older
10:59>> than Blades, you know. Um, ball striking
11:02wise, I would give the edge to Brown.
11:04Overall, well-roundedness, like in a
11:05Xander sense, I would get definitely
11:07give it to Kovven. I think Kovven's the
11:09better putter. Uh, I think it goes back
11:11and forth to that conversation you and I
11:12always have, like, let's take the ball
11:14strikers and hope the putter pops up. Um
11:16I I think Blades we're going to see him
11:18a lot of times in that kind of you know
11:21genre of win or genre of contention
11:23where he's just like week after week
11:25he's just you know pounding the ball
11:26right down the center of the fairway
11:28knocking it close and then it's like ah
11:30the putter's like okay and and I think
11:31Kovven has a little bit more birdie to
11:33bogey ratio um in a positive sense uh
11:37right now in his game but again some of
11:39these guys that we're talking about
11:40Brennan Kovven they they have multiple
11:42years on where blades the kid's 19 years
11:45old. It's pretty cool, man. Um I I'm I'm
11:49excited about him because I love the
11:50fact he has so much poise and that he
11:53does kind of fire at pins like Seiw. I
11:56mean, I think that's that in a lot of
11:57ways is very engaging about, you know,
12:00these modern players that these guys get
12:02to like Ben James, too. Like I know he
12:04had he had kind of a rough Sunday there,
12:06but like these guys get driver out and
12:08they just go and uh to me in a modern
12:11sense of the professional game, I think
12:12that's tons of fun to watch. So Ben
12:15James gags it away and he ends up losing
12:17in the playoff and makes that like
12:18Stones Eagle putt to get himself into
12:20the playoff after dillydallying all day
12:23long in the final round. What are you
12:24going with? A four-stroke lead,
12:26three-stroke lead.
12:27>> Four-stroke lead. Uh he had a
12:29four-stroke lead, three-stroke lead with
12:3112 to go.
12:33>> And in the same group, Blades Brown and
12:36Michael Kim go eight under and seven
12:38under to get into a playoff and missed
12:39the playoff by one. So that was the
12:41group that you wanted to be in. David
12:42Ford started making a move again. I feel
12:44bad for David Ford that he kind of
12:46started to pop, had the injury, everyone
12:49forgets about him, and then Brennan
12:50wins, Thor Bjornson wins, Koan wins, and
12:53he comes back. He's been playing some
12:54pretty good golf post injury. It's just
12:56these other guys have kind of usurped
12:57him now.
12:59I mean, it's like we have champagne
13:01problems there. There could be 10 guys
13:03that are under the age of 25 that legit
13:06could win a regular or signature series
13:08PGA Tour event. Um, notice I didn't say
13:11major championship there. Who do you
13:12think is who do you think is most primed
13:14of these guys to win like to surprise in
13:16a major right away?
13:18>> It's probably Kovven.
13:20>> Oh,
13:22>> like with the game that you talked about
13:24that if somehow Kovven was able to like
13:26sneak out a US Open right away be like,
13:28"Oh yeah, that that actually really
13:29tracks."
13:30>> Honestly, I feel like Brennan in like a
13:32PGA. I I mean, Brennan made the cut in
13:35all four majors last year. A lot. Yes,
13:38he didn't contend in all four majors,
13:40but he made the cut in all four majors.
13:42That's a small list of people on the PGA
13:44Tour that do that. And he did it without
13:46a short game and he did it with a a a
13:48relatively average putter. Uh his ball
13:50striking is just at the level that I
13:52think that he could
13:54attack some of these major championship
13:56venues with the length and um with his
14:00ability getting around the golf course.
14:02So I I think I would lean Brennan in
14:05that regard over even Oshay or
14:07Thorjornson or some of those guys that
14:09have us, you know, even more experience
14:11than him on the PGA Tour at this point.
14:13>> Yeah, Ash is going to be tough. I can't
14:16really pinpoint a major that would play
14:18to his skill set only because his skill
14:19set seems to waver so much throughout
14:21the course of the year that sometimes
14:23he's the best putter out there.
14:24Sometimes he's the worst, sometimes he
14:25hits every fairway, sometimes he can't
14:27hit a fairway, sometimes he's the best
14:29wind player, sometimes he's somehow the
14:31worst. He does feel like in a weird
14:33off-brand year that he would win the
14:35Masters.
14:39>> Would he? Uh, is Ash's approach play
14:42good enough to win the Masters?
14:43>> It can be.
14:45>> Can be. Can be, but remember when he won
14:47Bay Hill, he didn't do it with his ball
14:49striking. He gained like teen strokes uh
14:52chipping and putting that week down at
14:54down at Bay Hill last March. So,
14:56>> sure. But I I've watched him win
14:57tournaments at the same time when the
14:58dude can't make a putt and he's just
15:00pinseeking. Like the the week at Valero,
15:02he putted like okay that week. That was
15:05a windy week and he just went at pins.
15:08>> True. He was deep that week. Oh, talk
15:11about another another bad Denny McCarthy
15:13week right there. Remember when A was
15:16getting the massage in the playoff?
15:18>> I I had money on Ash that week, too. He
15:20had to make the Stones putt to actually
15:21force the playoff and then Denny chunked
15:24it into the water on the 18th. But like
15:26we had
15:27>> we had the uh the worldwide technologies
15:30on like the bottom right screen while
15:32the football games were going on. I was
15:34like man and that's I was like sweating
15:35Michael Kim the entire time and just
15:37watching Blades stick it and then I kind
15:39of I was watching like I something
15:41caught my eye in Seattle and Arizona and
15:44then I just like put my eyes back down
15:45to the screen and Denny is on like a
15:47sand path. I don't know where the hell
15:50he is. And like he's really gearing up
15:52to hit it. And he finally fire. I think
15:54it was on number 17. And he just fires
15:56it and he just immediately just slams
15:58his club into the sand and just starts
16:01pouting with his head down walking
16:03towards it and like it zooms out and
16:04he's hit it into like the jungle somehow
16:06and like the caddy already has the
16:08driver out to take the drop. I was like,
16:10"Oh man, poor Denny." for a week for
16:12Denny for him to be so close to try to
16:14get his first PGA Tour win and is
16:17honestly the putter that lets him down.
16:19You couldn't have drew that one up.
16:22>> Hey man, I mean look look at Ben James
16:26the guy you know he was shooting zero
16:28every single day and then all of a
16:29sudden on Sunday he couldn't figure out
16:30how to make a birdie and he's making all
16:32not only is he just making pars but he's
16:34making bogeies, right? It's hard to win
16:36on the PGA Tour. Denny's got close to
16:38250 career starts. I'm sure it weighs on
16:42him that he hasn't broken through at
16:43this point. He switched caddies this
16:45year. Um, you know, I I know his coach
16:48very well. Uh, Brian Kan, you know,
16:50they've worked on all sorts of things,
16:52trying to chase speed, trying to make it
16:53his approach play better. I mean, at the
16:55end of the day, I I don't think speed
16:57was ever the answer. I think they just
16:58needed to put his approach play in a
17:00position where he could win at John
17:01Deere or YA or Harbortown or something
17:03like that because his putter is so good
17:07and um the fact that like they went to a
17:10place like El Cardinal and he was in
17:14position to do something and then he
17:15missed a fairway of all things like
17:18badly. I mean, you were supposed to hit
17:19it down the left side of 17 because of
17:21where that pin where that hole location
17:23was and he misses it way right out there
17:25like looking like Lawrence of Arabia was
17:27like no good. No good whatsoever.
17:30>> Is Hyatta the new Charlie Hoffman? Is
17:32this just an auto bet for first round
17:33leader every time? Like the guy was even
17:36I think it was even par going into the
17:38whatever the second nine he played on
17:40Thursday and ended up seven under.
17:422025's version of Keith Mitchell, who
17:44what had like four first round leads on
17:46a Thursday, never won a tournament. But
17:48yeah, um guy's been hot for the last
17:51couple weeks. And you know what what's
17:53what's kind of cool about this and and I
17:55I know there was a ton of withdrawals
17:58coming into today um or coming into this
18:00week. Ben James, you know, um Matt
18:03Wallace, Michael Kim, your boy, he drops
18:05out. Um, Silverman, Mccardi, um, Denny
18:09of course probably to be expected, Harry
18:12Hall, like a bunch of names. Kind of
18:13weakens the field down here in Austin,
18:15but you still you still have Blades
18:17Brown, you still have Jackson Cory, you
18:19still have a couple of these guys that
18:20are just fighting to get as deep as they
18:23can into that 51 to 60 range or get
18:26inside the top 100. Um, as good as Chris
18:29Kirk played last week until the last
18:30five holes, he's still not in the top
18:32100, Pat.
18:34>> Yeah, Kirk's 101. I don't quite
18:36understand why Ben Silverman withdrew
18:37because he's at 117. Like, why isn't he
18:39try? Why isn't he trying to play? Mike
18:42told me he's not playing again till
18:43Grant Thornton. So, he's done now. And
18:45he's not I told him that it seemed like
18:47he was pretty much guaranteed to be in
18:49the top 50. And he was like, "H it
18:52things could happen. I think
18:53statistically that he could fall out.
18:55It's just very unlikely
18:57to fall out of the top 60."
18:59>> Yeah. Sure. No, I I get that. And if I
19:01was in his position, I I think you could
19:03take time off or at the very least maybe
19:06just play this week and then not play
19:07again to L. Grant Thornton,
19:10>> but I mean like I still can't get over.
19:12I know we talked about this last week,
19:13but quickly like it's in Texas. I can't
19:16believe Speed's not at this thing. He
19:17fell out of the top 60 because guys like
19:19Michael Kim are jumping up there.
19:21>> Yeah, he's now 63, so he's even behind
19:23Jordan Smith, Connors, and Homo at this
19:26point. Yeah, this one makes very little
19:27like what's is he hurt? Is that the
19:29problem?
19:30I I I honestly don't know. I mean, the
19:32the bigger secret this week was trying
19:34to get agronomic information for um you
19:37know, Barton Creek's Canyons course
19:39here. This Fazio design. I I I I'm still
19:43endlessly texting people on the PGA Tour
19:46GR. It's like it's like once the good
19:48good thing was dropped like nobody put
19:51this on their like it's it's it's on
19:52everyone's pay no mind list, you know. I
19:54was talking to somebody today. He's
19:56like, "Yeah, I'm on my way to RSM to do
19:57a, you know, you know, an aronomy check
20:00for next week." And I'm like, "Well,
20:02who's in charge for Austin?" He's like,
20:03"I got to find the right guy." And I'm
20:05like, "Geez, I'll flip." I'm like, "We
20:07need to know what's going on down
20:08there." The you know, the the GCSAA
20:12reports haven't been coming out. You
20:13know, the guy that used to send those,
20:15unfortunately, he passed away this past
20:17summer, and that's why they've been very
20:19sparingly being published on the GCSA
20:22GCSA website. So, like when you get to a
20:25new venue, you just can't rinse, rewind,
20:28repeat. Like, I'm like working hard
20:30trying to get information. I mean, a
20:31couple weeks ago trying to figure out
20:32the scorecard of Vantarta and we were
20:34the only ones that had it. We had the
20:36final word on the card and I'm trying to
20:37figure out what the final word is here
20:39on Barton Creek.
20:41Well, my guy Ron Clauss, PJs Splits 101
20:45over at Betsz Golf, has a fantastic
20:48writeup on the course right now, which
20:50I'm pretty sure he's just done a lot
20:52through scorecard management, flyovers,
20:55and trying to piece everything together.
20:56So, most of my information is coming
20:57from Ron this week because I watched the
21:00flyover as well. I was like, "All right,
21:01we'll see how we can parse this
21:03together." He did a much better job of
21:04that. I did want to give one more
21:06special shout out to a guy that I bet on
21:08last week and even though he shot a
21:11seven over on one nine, he did match
21:13that with a 29 on the other other nine.
21:15So, shout out to you, Billy Horchel, for
21:17trying to rally back to the cut line.
21:21>> Oh, Billy. Yep. We both went down the
21:24Billy path and um it did not work out. I
21:29don't know. I'm done with Billy for the
21:30year. I I honestly
21:31>> Is there Okay.
21:33where you're at. Is ESPN Plus showing
21:36the early round coverage of the stuff or
21:37is that just non-existent anymore?
21:40>> Uh it yeah, it's non-existent.
21:42>> Okay. Because I I can't It's usually
21:44like streamed on an app that I have up
21:46here and it just takes the ESPN feed in
21:48conjunction with that with different
21:50nationality rights and it's just gone
21:52away. So I I haven't been able to watch
21:54anything. At least the the the serious
21:56uh coverage comes on like two hours
21:58earlier than the TV coverage. So you can
22:01get it through the app that way. But
22:02that that's all I got. So I it's a shot
22:05tracker right now. And and even even a
22:08lot of like the IGM spots that usually
22:10have like the shot by shot like oh you
22:12know hit fairway 269 129 left or the
22:15whole like that stuff's not even going
22:16through right now. So I don't know what
22:17the hell is going on.
22:20>> Um it's my understanding that well first
22:22of all you know for budgetary reasons
22:24they're just not doing the ESPN plus
22:26feeds. But the second thing is that
22:29they're back to doing, you know, shot
22:31link um the old way they would do it
22:33with volunteers, which is why a lot of
22:35the shot link data in the fall has been
22:37like inconsistent, especially when you
22:39start to talk about Mexico, Bermuda,
22:41like they're using foreign volunteers
22:43with which to like plug in the numbers.
22:45Um hopefully it's a little bit better
22:47this week in Austin or they go back to
22:49Shotlink 2.0. Um, I'm just not sure if
22:52they're going to spend the money to send
22:53shot link to I mean, you would think
22:56they would send it to RSM. It's like
22:57it's about an hour and 10 minutes away
22:59from Panabra Beach, but it all it also
23:01depends on where those kits are. You
23:03know, there's two or three of those
23:04shotling kits that travel around. Takes
23:06five or six days to set up, and they
23:07obviously just don't do it down in
23:09Mexico. They they certainly don't do it
23:10in Japan. And and um they you know, so
23:13they've been using volunteers. That's
23:14why, you know, if you've been following
23:17Shot Link closely or Shot Tracker
23:19closely, you've been seeing a lot of
23:21inconsistencies. Like a guy makes a six,
23:23then all of a sudden he's like, "Oh,
23:24yeah, par." [snorts] You know, like,
23:25"Okay, great."
23:26>> I I was praying that was the case with
23:28Nick Dunlap and that bogey. I was like,
23:30"Ah, maybe it's wrong."
23:32>> Yeah. Um, he could have been very
23:35likely, but uh we are definitely
23:37bootstrapping the budget, you know,
23:39running into the Grand Thornton and
23:40then, uh, getting ready for AMX next
23:43year. So, it's just where we're at.
23:48You don't need three kids like me to
23:50know that holiday shopping can get out
23:52of control pretty quickly, mind you. And
23:54I'm not looking to spend a fortune just
23:56to get everyone something that's at the
23:58very highest end, because that's going
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25:56Uh, I'll have an update on the Mayo Cup
25:58coming very, very soon. Maybe some big
26:01news on that front and huge news coming
26:03to the rabbit hole as well. Some brand
26:05new tools which will be debuting and a
26:08whole new pipeline of stats which will
26:10also be debuting for the American
26:12Express in the new year. We just want to
26:14make sure that everything is routed
26:15properly to get that into everyone's
26:17hands. I'm very excited. Um, you know,
26:19when I came over to Betsertz Golf from
26:21Fantasy National and tried to merge the
26:23sites together, we knew it wouldn't be
26:25something like, hey, tomorrow everything
26:26is going to be completely integrated.
26:28And now this January, it's going to be
26:30awesome, Keith. I'm very excited for it.
26:32I've been playing around with some of
26:33the new tools. And it really helps for
26:35stuff that I'm really, and I know that
26:37I'm not the only one, but like, you
26:39know, when you want to find out where,
26:41you know, what what course is a comp to
26:43RSM? Like what specifically is a comp to
26:46RSM? And then all of a sudden it's like,
26:47"Oh, that took me two seconds to find.
26:49This is great."
26:51>> What's the data string he's bringing in?
26:53Live 2.0.
26:54>> Oh, yeah. Live 3.0. We're getting way
26:56ahead of the game.
26:57>> Hey, the comp conversation is extremely
27:01important and a great transition
27:02opportunity. So, I'm going to jump on
27:04it. this week having not you know the
27:07the only professional tournament that I
27:08can remember that's been played here in
27:10the last like five or six years were on
27:12the other courses there at Barton Creek
27:14and that's the 2022 professional
27:16national championship. Um that was for
27:18the guys the top 20 that got into
27:20Southern Hills. Uh yeah. Yeah. Um
27:23>> your boy Michael Block MB.
27:26>> Uh you know what that is? Quick story
27:30here. That is the first time. So I had
27:33to cover that event for the PGA of
27:35America and I just started building Read
27:37the Line and I was doing a bunch of work
27:39for them and I covered that event for
27:41them. Now again, it's not the same golf
27:43courses. There's like a hundred Barton
27:44Creek Resort golf courses there. Um
27:47they're using a different one, a
27:48different Fazio course. That one was the
27:50foothills and the core crunch course.
27:52But anyway, uh, Block was in that field
27:54and he was like one of the top five
27:56people that the PJ of America was
27:58interested in that thought they had a
27:59good chance to get in the top 20. Um,
28:02which, you know, Michael's a great
28:04player. So, I had to reach out to him in
28:06order to do like a feature story on him
28:07and I couldn't get him to call me back.
28:09I'm like, dude, I'm I I need to write
28:10like 500 words on you and he wouldn't
28:13even call me back. It's a true story.
28:14It's pretty crazy. Sun catti form and
28:16everything. Oh, man. just I I mean the
28:19story writes itself other than the fact
28:20that he's Michael Block. But anyway,
28:24there you go.
28:24>> This this comes from Ron and this
28:27article is free at betsportsgolf.com if
28:29you want to find it. The Fazio Canyons
28:31will play a par 72 7451
28:34yards. The course runs through uh
28:37canyons on the eastern edge of the Texas
28:39Hill County or country, sorry, with
28:41Short Spring Branch. All right, we got
28:42some limestones in here. The themes
28:45repeatedly come up for those who have
28:46played the large elevation changes on
28:48almost every hole, force carries over
28:51creeks and ravines, and a premium on
28:52finding the fairway from the elevated
28:54TE's. And that's on the front nine. In
28:56the back nine, it carries most of the
28:58difficulty. The first assistant and
29:00tournament director has said, "Of the
29:02courses on the property here at Barton
29:04Creek, the Fazio Canyon's course is the
29:06true test. It challenges every part of
29:08your game. It sounds like
29:11bombers are going to have a huge
29:14advantage here because there's going to
29:15be a long a lot of long approaches. And
29:18it's not so much that you need to hit
29:19fairways is that there's water, there's
29:21canyons, there's creeks that the bombers
29:23can just kind of aim away from that and
29:25where it's November in Texas that this
29:28Bermuda rough might not be grown out to
29:30the point where it's catching your club
29:31the entire time. That being in the rough
29:33might not be the end of the world. Being
29:35in the canyon, big problem. But if you
29:37can blast it down in there far, you can
29:39kind of go driver, mid iron, wedge,
29:42where some guys are going to be fairway
29:43finders but be hitting six irons in.
29:47That's my read.
29:49Uh they've got a lot of rain, Pat. So of
29:52all those things that you said, the
29:53probably the only thing I'd push back on
29:55is that I I know this time of year that
29:57the Bermuda rough may have gone a little
29:59bit dormant, but um you know, they got
30:01almost two inches of rain last they got
30:03like 1.8 inches of rain last week down
30:05there. It's going to be soft. Um it's
30:07not supposed to rain a ton this week.
30:09There's a chance of it on Sunday, but um
30:12overall, like it's going to be soft down
30:14there. I I I certainly like your take on
30:16guys that are aggressive with the
30:17driver. And you know, we kind of got off
30:20on a tangent there real quickly, but
30:22when you're talking about comp courses,
30:24and we went at, you talked about this at
30:27length back in September when we were
30:29going to the cliffs of Walnut Cove, and
30:30I see a lot of similarities between what
30:33it took skill-wise in order to play that
30:34golf course and what it's going to take
30:36to play this golf course. Again, a ton
30:38of terrain changes, um, elevation,
30:41uphill, downhill, sidehill, lies, all
30:43sorts of things. Well, we had all of
30:44that in the mountains of western North
30:46Carolina and we have the same thing down
30:48here in Austin. Uh, again, being on that
30:50property, different golf courses, but
30:53there was incredible amount of of up and
30:55down that these guys were hitting into
30:57greens. Um, all sorts of fairways shaped
31:00right to left, left to right. Um, going
31:02along with the ground. Uh, again, you're
31:04talking about Fazio. These guy, whether
31:05you like a Tom Fazio course or not, the
31:07guy knows what he's doing. He knows how
31:08to create a championship venue. This
31:10this place was built 1999. uh they did a
31:13huge renovation in 2022. They added 400
31:16yards. They it basically was created in
31:19order to bring this event in or events
31:21similar to this PGA PGA Tour style
31:24professional event elite players as
31:27such. Um so you know they added the
31:30length 7400 and change. Uh, still a par
31:3372, which is interesting to me. But
31:36overall, I I think you're gonna see a
31:39lot of long iron shots. Like, so when I
31:41went down the comp list, the first thing
31:43I was looking for is that the average
31:45par threes here are 212 yards.
31:48>> Yeah.
31:49>> Right. At Barton Creek. Well, I was
31:51like, you know what? That reminds me of
31:52like Sedgefield. That reminds me of the
31:54John Deere. That reminds me of TPC San
31:58Antonio, Canada, like those places where
32:01they have the really hard par 3s, some
32:04scorable parfs because basically all par
32:06fives are scorable for these guys. And
32:08then, you know, the average par4
32:10somewhere in the ballpark of like 430,
32:12435 yards, and then you get a lot of
32:15these type of similar venues where you
32:19could look at what those leaderboards
32:20are like. But if you go back to that
32:22leaderboard, Pat from the Builtmore You
32:25know, I had said it earlier this that
32:27week. I had taken Rasmus. He withdrew. I
32:29had gone with Penge. He top 10. Like I
32:32was like, I think guys that have length
32:33can attack this golf course in a modern
32:35PGA Tour professional, you know,
32:38mindset. And I and I'm going to go down
32:40that same route again this week to a
32:42certain degree. I I think guys can get
32:43aggressive here.
32:44>> That makes sense. Although this course
32:46seems longer than that course.
32:49It felt like there was more wedges at
32:50that course. Maybe I'm misremembering
32:52that.
32:53Well, the average the average par4 at
32:55the Builtmore was 445 yards.
32:57>> Okay.
32:58>> The the average par4 here is 430.
33:01So,
33:03I mean,
33:04>> yeah,
33:05>> I mean, you had names at the top of that
33:06board if you bring up the Builtmore top
33:0910, right? You've got like Ricky
33:10Castillo, you've got Neil Shipley,
33:12you've got you've got guys that send it
33:15out there and then are really good long
33:16iron players. Um, and that's pretty much
33:18all that they can do. But that seemed to
33:20be a good week for them because it their
33:22skill set fit that type of that type of
33:25layout.
33:25>> Let's see. Let's see what we're looking
33:27at here. Yeah. Yeah. Bridgemond ended up
33:29putting the lights out, right? That was
33:31Yeah.
33:32>> And ran away with it. Let's take a look
33:34at kind of the strokes gain. So,
33:35Bridgemond, Ben James, Ricky Castillo,
33:37Shipley, Poston, Kovven, Sheamus Power
33:40started his run of like generic top 10s.
33:43Uh, despite he had a second. He ended up
33:45T8 last week despite not really being in
33:48contention. Kefir's up there, you know,
33:50Marty Doe, Chris Kirk. It's kind of a
33:52hodgepodge of like types of players that
33:54are there honestly. Uh I mean Pat, all
33:57of those guys that I'm looking at right
33:59there are all great iron players. Marty
34:01Doe, um Jackson Koven, Neil Shipley,
34:04Ricky Castillo. Ricky Castillo is one of
34:06the better I mean he won at Puerto Rico,
34:08right? He's one of the better long iron
34:09players on the PGA Tour. Hat Lee when
34:11he's striking it well. Really good long
34:13iron player. Penge. Um, he's using short
34:15irons while everyone's using long irons.
34:17But, um, you kind of get what I mean
34:19there. Ben Kohl's, the same thing.
34:21Jackson Suber, um, Austin Smotherman
34:23right before he won. Andrew Novak, Doug
34:25Gim, all those guys are great long iron
34:28players. And that one and maybe, okay, I
34:30shouldn't say the word long iron. They
34:32are good mid-ir players. They're good
34:34from 175 to 225, which for many of those
34:36guys is somewhere between an eight iron
34:38and a sixiron. So, they're not even
34:40really getting they're just getting to
34:42mid irons. But like the guys in that
34:43range, I think is really where we need
34:45to start this week.
34:47>> All right. Well, let's take a look.
34:47Let's let's jump over to Betsford's golf
34:49and see what we got on the go here. So,
34:51you say 175 to 225. Let's I mean, we can
34:54call we can put in Do you want scoring
34:56from there or just proximity from there?
34:59>> Uh, go proximity.
35:00>> All right. So, overall approach
35:02proximity from those ranges. Uh, we got
35:05150 to 200. You got Wacky Valamaki back
35:07in the field this time around. Davis
35:09Thompson, Doug Gim, and this is just
35:11from this is I'm only pulling up stats
35:13from the swing season. So, we can
35:14increase this sample, but when I had it
35:16originally pulled up, I just wanted to
35:18look that. That's one thing that you can
35:20kind of look at so far in the swing
35:22season. As we pointed out last week,
35:24guys who have been playing well have
35:25continued to play well, weirdly enough.
35:28>> I mean, look who's in the playoff. Ben
35:29James and Blades Brown. Both guys had
35:31played well this fall.
35:32>> So, Clanton Homa Kirk Clanton, your guy,
35:35there he is.
35:36>> Yeah. Yep. Good long iron player.
35:38>> Can Gim make Can Gim Gim or Thompson
35:41make enough putts?
35:44>> Well,
35:45I'd give Gim a chance over Thompson for
35:47sure. Thompson, no way.
35:48>> Hey, Thompson's one on tour.
35:51>> He has. He has. And his dad's the
35:54tournament director at Sea Island. So,
35:55why don't you wait a week on him?
35:57>> Okay. So, if we just go to uh 175 to 200
36:00inside 15 feet, you got like Toasty Pan
36:03Rasmus. Rasmergar Peterson was kind of
36:05You talk about an aggressive player.
36:06There's an aggressive player.
36:08>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Love those guys. Uh
36:10Chris Kirk, can be tough to get away
36:12from Chris Kirk's name and and whatever
36:14you filter for this week, especially
36:16when you start.
36:17>> What are the other Fazio designs that we
36:19should be looking at uh for this week or
36:21just in general? Like what are some
36:22hallmarks of his courses? What are the
36:25other ones that we see on the PGA tour?
36:27Because he has a lot of like redesign
36:28credits where I think that they'll give
36:30Riviera to him and PGA National to him.
36:32like when you see what he's put his
36:34hands on, not necessarily designed by,
36:37but at least came to do some renovations
36:39to.
36:41>> Well, I mean, probably the most
36:43prominent Fazio spot you're going to
36:44hear, you know, on the PJ tour is Quail
36:47Hollow, but these two places have
36:49nothing in common. I I would, again, I
36:51would be looking at places like TPC Deer
36:54Run. I'd be looking at the cliffs at
36:56Walnut Clove. I would be looking at
36:58Colonial. I would be looking at TPC San
37:00Antonio's uh what's that? the Oaks
37:02course. Like those are the places that I
37:03would be looking at. Places that um when
37:06guys are driving the ball very well and
37:09their approach game is elite in the
37:11field, then they're able to score on
37:14those venues. And um there is going to
37:17be a certain degree of um like a good
37:21drives gained is a good stat for this
37:23week. You know, guys that only miss the
37:25fairway by a little bit, but maybe they
37:27push it down there a little bit further.
37:29like this this I feel like is a good
37:31week for that. uh you know how many
37:32greens and regulation can you hit from
37:34the fairway or anywhere near the fairway
37:37um under these circumstances and you
37:39know places like Deer Run and others um
37:42Inisbrook they have a lot of elevation
37:43changes and these guys are going to be
37:44hitting a lot of shots uphill and
37:46downhill and if you're good at doing
37:49that generally speaking then you can
37:51adjust a lot but I I don't think there's
37:54a ton of like Fazio comps you know I I
37:58just wouldn't I wouldn't look at Reese
37:59Jones courses because he's the US Open
38:01doctor and say, "Well, if he's good at
38:02Reese Jones courses, he's going to be
38:03good at all the US Opens." So, I I
38:05wouldn't blanket statement that. I I
38:07would look more at like what the skill
38:08set is. That's, you know, Sedgefield's a
38:11great um golf course comp this week. You
38:14know, really difficult par 3es, just a
38:16couple parfs, and then you got to be
38:18able to score on Bermuda grass par4s.
38:20It's just what you got to do.
38:21>> Yeah. And we have back-to-back bombers
38:23who have won at that course with Michael
38:25Brennan and Cam Young as well after
38:26years of not seeing those guys pop up
38:28that all of a sudden now they're the
38:30ones at the top of the leaderboard.
38:32>> That's a great point and and I just
38:35think that there's still some more names
38:36of guys that continue to play well all
38:38fall and I I think you got to kind of
38:41ride them because they're going to be up
38:43near the top of the leaderboard. As
38:45crazy as it sounds, Chris Kirk and
38:46Sheamus Power make a lot of sense this
38:48week. Um, they are scoring. They are
38:50hitting their irons very, very well. You
38:52mean Sheamus Power, that's like four of
38:55the toughest par threes on tour are out
38:58there at the uh Port Royal Golf Course.
39:01And, you know, Sheamus found himself in
39:02a playoff in order to win.
39:04>> Yeah. And didn't and didn't win on the
39:06par three. Can't take him. Can't win.
39:08>> Well, I mean, I get it. I get it. You
39:11know, pressure is a real thing. Just ask
39:12Ben James.
39:14>> You mentioned Colonial. Did you see that
39:15Colonial might be off the schedule?
39:18I did see that and that's a shame um
39:21especially since the membership there
39:23obviously very much supports um
39:25professional tournament golf and they
39:26they did that massive renovation in
39:28order to with Gilhans and the redesign
39:30and everything and
39:32yeah I it it might be the premier
39:35challenger series event Pat we're going
39:37to see it you're going to see golf
39:39courses drop to that challenger series
39:41that have been on the PGA tour for a
39:43long time PJ national and looks like
39:46Colonial as well
39:47>> well One other note, if people want to
39:48bank it away, I made it my notes for the
39:50worldwide tech next year and it turns
39:53out it was already in there and I just
39:54forgot to look at it. But Drew Matthews
39:56was all over this. Josh Culp was all
39:58over this, especially the first day uh
40:00and second day, the first two rounds and
40:02even worked a little bit into the
40:03weekend as well. Is that the morning at
40:06the Elcardian course plays a stroke to a
40:09stroke and a half easier than the
40:11afternoon?
40:13>> Coastal golf course makes sense. wind
40:15picks up in the afternoon off the, you
40:17know, off the Pacific Ocean.
40:19>> So, think about that for first round
40:20leaders, for showdown lineups. Um, even
40:23if you can find head-to-heads that are
40:2572 holes, a morning guy versus an
40:28afternoon guy, you don't see that all
40:29that often. They do exist if they're out
40:31there. That could be an angle that you
40:32want to take for that tournament because
40:34I had played it. I played two underdog
40:35entries uh with the same same three
40:38guys, round one, three morning guys, all
40:40under 68 and a half. They all hit. Then
40:42it was all over 68 and a half the next
40:44day and they all hit again. So, uh, it's
40:46a good angle to take to try to pick up
40:48some like prop markets. Underdog is big
40:50for that. But even whatever site that
40:52you use, you can go in and try to find
40:54that. I just wanted to bring that to
40:55people's attention in case they didn't
40:56see it.
40:57>> Well, looking ahead to this week in
40:59Austin, it looks like the first two days
41:00are going to be relatively quiet from a
41:03weather perspective. Sunday, it looks
41:04like there's some rain and it looks like
41:06there's some definitely some gusty winds
41:07on the weekend afternoons, which will
41:10make the leaders have to play some
41:11decent golf in order to contend.
41:13>> Well, let's get to the odds for the
41:15week. After the WDs that have already
41:17taken place, you go to the very top of
41:19the board and guess who you got as your
41:21favorite. Would you have guessed it was
41:22Doug Gim who continues to be favored in
41:23these tournaments and never wins?
41:26>> He's favored over Jackson Quoven.
41:28>> Yeah. 13 to1 for Doug Gim, 15 to1 for
41:31Jackson Kovven. Blades Brown at 22 to1.
41:34Andrew Novak 27 to1. Same as Brian
41:36Harmon and Jordan Smith. Chris Kirk is
41:3930. Kefir's 32. Cody's 32. Then you got
41:42Austin Smotherman coming in at 35 to1.
41:45These are going to differ based on the
41:46site. I'm going to use coolbet.com if
41:49you're in Canada outside of Ontario.
41:51Quickest payouts in the biz. And you'll
41:52get your PME boost up there this week as
41:54well. Obviously, Michael Kim has already
41:56withdrawn, so he's not going to be
41:57there. Ben James had opened as the
41:59favorite, but he's gone. But yeah,
42:01depending on where you look, like Doug
42:03Gim was 21 at Cool Bet and now he's down
42:05to 13 at other spots. So that's where
42:07the the hot money came in early. So
42:10you're going to find a lot of
42:11differentiation, I think, between sites
42:13early in the week and then by the time
42:15you get to Wednesday, they'll all kind
42:16of be the same.
42:18>> Yeah. Down here it basically Gim and and
42:21Quivven are tied. Kovven has a slight
42:23edge if it's by 50 points or 100 points,
42:26but yeah.
42:29>> Yeah. Any anyone just jump out to you
42:31right away from that grouping?
42:33>> Well, what jumps out what jumps out to
42:35me the most is that the middle tier guys
42:37have won four tournaments in a row. So,
42:39the guys like in the 30s have won the
42:42last four fall events and they are all
42:45guys that have been playing well. So, I
42:46start to look instantly right at, you
42:49know, um that's one of the things I love
42:51to do. I love to look at the like the
42:53pre-ournament odds history of the
42:54winners. It's like, okay, is this a long
42:56shot haven? Is this just a place where
42:58guys near the top of the board win? And
43:00I find it interesting in the fall where
43:03everyone's always said like, you know,
43:04you get all these kind of wild card
43:06winners. Um, you know, Brennan was 30,
43:09you have uh Bermuda, then you had
43:12Smotherman was 35, then you had Novak
43:14was 30, then you had Blades Brown was
43:1730. So instantly, Pat, my eyes are drawn
43:20to like right between 30 and 40. and and
43:22who's sitting there, but guys like Cudy
43:24Harmon, uh your boy Johnny Kefir, um
43:27they're all sitting right there. Austin
43:29Smotherman again, um you know, Steven
43:32Joerger, Chris Kirk, just that that that
43:36general group of people that have been
43:37playing well, um are presenting at least
43:40a little bit of value. Of course, if
43:42you're if you're looking at Doug Gim,
43:45[snorts]
43:46>> uh I can get you a 55 on Stephen Jagger.
43:50Uh 42 down here.
43:52>> Not enough.
43:54>> Get more 50 as well.
43:56>> Yeah. I'm just what I'm looking at the
43:58board I'm looking at right now just like
44:00in that range of those like 30 to 40
44:02guys is seems to be like the caliber of
44:05player in these weaker fields has pushed
44:08through if they've been playing very
44:09well. And um the trend is your friend in
44:12this case I think. So that's you ask me
44:14a question where my eyes are drawn.
44:15That's where my eyes are drawn. Um, you
44:17could even throw Jordan Smith in there
44:18even though he's a little bit below 30.
44:20>> Well, if we take a look at the fall
44:22swing only average per round strokes
44:24gain total and guys that have been
44:26playing well, David Ford is far and
44:28above everyone else in this field. He's
44:30averaging over a stroke a round. Next is
44:33Rico Hoey Smotherman who's won twice and
44:36David Ford's blowing him out of the
44:37water in that category. Neil Shipley,
44:39that's your top five. Yes, Spencen,
44:41Ventura, Yella, Maraju, Jordan Smith,
44:45Taylor Pendr, Gordon Sergeant, Toasty,
44:48Damon, Miles Russell in his three
44:50rounds. I think I bet on him last time,
44:51too. CT Pan, Ben Kohl's, Howong, Suber,
44:54Baoshu, Kaya, Celinda, my guy, he's up
44:58there. So, these are the ones on a per
44:59round basis that are playing really
45:01well. One interesting thing to consider
45:04with the skill sets that we're going
45:06with and we're looking at. So, I I would
45:08prefer to I mean short-term form I think
45:11is going to be pretty key here when
45:12we're looking at who's scoring well
45:13overall. But you have to remember that
45:16between both Mexico courses and Black
45:19Desert, dudes are hitting like 90% of
45:21their fairways in these courses. That
45:22that's not going to be the case this
45:24week.
45:26It's definitely not. That's that's what
45:27goes back to after approach. I was just
45:29looking at somebody who if they miss
45:31fairways, they miss closely and they're
45:33still able to hit, you know,
45:34aggressively attack the greens in
45:36regulation. So that's why I went down
45:37that road of good drives gained. Um that
45:40that old school, you know, fantasy
45:42national stat that then has carried over
45:44to Betsz and everywhere else. So that's
45:47I I just think that's one of those
45:48things where if a guy can aggressively
45:51attack Greens, even if he misses the
45:53fairway, I think he'll have an edge this
45:54week.
45:55>> Would you know that I lied to you and I
45:56read off the wrong stats on that false
45:58swing stuff? I I gave you the strokes
45:59gained off the tea leaders so far in the
46:02fall swing. Uh the actual strokes gained
46:04is Novak Smotherman Gim power Elero
46:07Ortiz after the two Mexico events. Then
46:09David Ford, Kirk Blades Brown, Trace
46:11Crow, and then Ben Kohl's. Then you got
46:13like Hoey, Shipley, Kovven, Clanton,
46:17Harmon, Bez, Kevin Roy, Bowshu, Billy
46:19Horchel's still up there. Poor guy.
46:22>> Yeah, we're not going to talk about him.
46:24>> So, let's throw that in. Let's throw
46:26strokes gain false swing total in. So
46:28total
46:31fall swing we'll throw into a model that
46:33we can try to cobble together here and
46:35then we'll go to what you just talked
46:36about in terms of good drive percentage
46:38gained on the field. But I think we
46:40should probably look back a little bit
46:42more in the past on that like past nine
46:45months. Does that work for you?
46:46>> Sure. I would have said for for a stat
46:48like that I would have said like 50
46:50rounds which could be six to nine months
46:52in there.
46:52>> Yeah. Let's go. Let's go. We'll do that.
46:54We'll do minimum rounds. We'll call
46:56eight and then we can say the past 50
46:58rounds for that as well of just to take
47:01that. Some guys like David Ford only
47:03have 35 because he just simply did not
47:04play as much as you would want. But
47:06we'll throw those filters on. Good drive
47:08percentage. Uh Ortiz with his uh eight
47:12rounds is up there. But guys with lots
47:14of rounds, Kohl's, Damon, Duncan,
47:16Kovven, Shipley, Gim, Ventura, Peterson,
47:20Glover, Jordan Smith, Suber, Hoey, Bez,
47:24a lot of Bez mentions here. so far.
47:26>> And then, well, now we're just looking
47:28at, you know, these guys that are really
47:30good drivers of the golf ball over the
47:32course of 2026. And then we want to
47:34filter on that that mid-ir scoring and
47:37then scoring in general. And then you're
47:39really going to get yourself a nice
47:41little um and the fall swing like trend,
47:44strokes gain trend. So, if we just had
47:46those four things, I I think we're going
47:48to come up with a really nice list like
47:50we did last week. I mean, the list we
47:51came up with last week, it definitely
47:53worked. It was pretty crazy. I I think I
47:56texted you after two rounds like of the
47:5920 guys at the top of the power rankings
48:01we had, I think that
48:03>> 17 of them made the cut in the entire
48:04top 10 was in there. It didn't turn out
48:06that way, but I think we ended up with
48:09seven of the top 10 inside the top 20 of
48:11the stat power rankings. Of course, I
48:13didn't bet any of these guys, so you
48:14know, that's me.
48:16>> Pat, I had the 540 leader on the PGA
48:18Tour and the LPGA, and they both
48:21finished second.
48:22That's no good.
48:24>> No, not at all.
48:25>> Last six months. So, let's go to those
48:26two scoring banks that we talked about.
48:29170 to 200. So, we'll go 175 to 200 and
48:33throw that in.
48:35>> Yeah.
48:35>> And then we'll throw in the 2011 plus as
48:38well, just try to capture a little bit
48:39of that.
48:40>> Yeah, definitely.
48:41>> 200 plus scoring opportunities.
48:44>> The last two par threes are both like
48:46over 225.
48:48So,
48:49>> that's no fun. I I would not enjoy that
48:51playing. It's you'd enjoy it if you were
48:53hitting sixiron.
48:54>> Yeah, I suppose that's true. That that's
48:56like a 190 hole for me.
48:58>> Yeah. Like that's it's just they just
49:01live in a different world. So
49:02>> So what was the other thing you wanted
49:04to throw in? Just just birdies in
49:05general.
49:06>> Uh scoring. So like birdie or better
49:08percentage?
49:09>> Do you want to go with par fours, par
49:10fives, or just in general?
49:12>> Um
49:14I'd actually like to go birdie to bogey
49:16ratio because I think there will be some
49:18bogeies on this golf course. There's
49:19definitely some hazards. Um, you know,
49:23more than half the holes have some form
49:24of canyon or limestone or creek or some
49:27sort of trouble to get into. The 18th
49:29hole is a great little riskreward. Um,
49:32par five with a, you know, with a creek
49:33running right in front of the green.
49:35Love that stuff. I don't like, you know,
49:37not like yesterday where, you know, the
49:39guys were rolling it up from off the
49:41front of the green.
49:42>> So, what if we throw in birdie
49:44percentage and bounceback percentage?
49:48>> Sure. Yeah,
49:49>> let's try that. So, uh, you want to go
49:51past six months or just the fall swing?
49:53>> Just the fall swing for those.
49:55>> All right. So, we'll shrink that back
49:56down to past three months. Doug Gim
49:58number one. Bernie's better. Doug Gim is
49:59going to look great on this.
50:01>> Well, he's going to be number one in the
50:02model. And that's why he's that's why
50:05>> that's why, you know, whomever
50:06DraftKings runs a model. And then Doug
50:08Gims at the top. And then there's your
50:09favorite. I mean,
50:10>> so here's what we got right now for the
50:14model that we just threw up. So, we got
50:15strokes gain total like current form,
50:17good drive percentage, those two scoring
50:19ranges, birdie or better percentage in
50:22general, and bounceback percentage. Is
50:23there anything else you want to add to
50:24that? Are we keeping it simple at a
50:26course we just don't know anything
50:27about?
50:28>> I mean, I think I think those are the
50:30key factors.
50:31>> Do Do you want to throw in like ball
50:33speed or driving distance because we
50:34said that aggressive drivers could end
50:36up doing really well here?
50:39No, because I I
50:42>> we suppose they will, but we really
50:44don't know.
50:45>> Well, I I always find, and maybe I'm
50:46wrong on this, and maybe more model
50:49driven people can let me know. Maybe
50:51they're trying to balance out for
50:52whatever the median is, but I know that
50:55Josh does his like extreme sims every
50:58single week. And I can I find that those
50:59are somewhat helpful that you kind of
51:01pick the lane that you want to go with
51:02and then build around that because if
51:04you don't know the if everyone is
51:07dealing with a set of unknowns when it
51:08comes to trying to figure out which
51:10statistics matter and I mean even in a
51:12regular event we're trying to do that
51:13too but at a complete unknown course I
51:15like to pick a lane and just kind of
51:17fire at that. If I'm wrong I'm wrong a
51:19lot anyway but if you're right you can
51:20really capitalize on it.
51:25Man, if I'm picking one stat to really
51:27dig in on this week, it would be like
51:29greens regulation gained. I want to see
51:31guys that could hit as many greens as
51:32they can and give themselves as many
51:34birdie chances as they can.
51:36>> All right, let's let's do this. Let's go
51:38past year
51:40>> and we'll filter by conditions on this.
51:42Do you want to say we're going to get Do
51:44you think that the greens will be easy
51:45or hard to hit here?
51:47>> I think they'll be on the easier side.
51:49>> Oh, you do? Okay. Green regulation at
51:51>> medium to easy. Medium to easier. Yes.
51:53So if we go to easy and
51:57average for those and we apply it over
52:00the past 12 months and then go to green
52:02and regulation and add that in too to
52:04see if there's someone who I mean we
52:05could take a look at those two actually
52:08that's Pat you're reading my mind Pat
52:10here's what we're doing so we're going
52:12to go to the splits we'll go to greener
52:15regulation and we can't add this in but
52:18I think it's going to be helpful to go
52:19take a look at this I like taking a look
52:20at it is going to be easy greens and
52:24regulation and then the filter out is
52:26going to be hard reg diff difficult
52:28green and regulation and we'll see if
52:30there's players that are just a lot
52:32better at one than the other so the
52:34filter in you got guys like Kovven
52:37Blades Brown Davis Thompson Graaserman
52:40Matthews all fantastic at gaining
52:43strokes on the easy to hit greens in
52:46regulation and then you have guys that
52:48are like either okay so the biggest
52:49difference between them is going to
52:51Let's
52:53see here. Johnny Kefir is number one in
52:55the difference between easy and hard.
52:57Kazire Suber, Kovven, Kohl's, Ford.
53:01All right, share that one up there. Try
53:03to get this up on the screen for you. I
53:04don't know what happened to it. There it
53:05goes. David Ford, Blades Brown, EVR,
53:07Ecro, Rasmus Hoygard, David Skins,
53:10Gordon Sergeant that it's not so much
53:12that they're amazing at the easy greens
53:14and regulations that they're awful at
53:16the hard ones. at least over the past
53:19>> whatever rounds last I have passed three
53:21years in. We can shrink that down if you
53:22want.
53:24>> I mean Ecro was good on approach last
53:27week.
53:28>> He's won a PGA nationals and that a
53:30Fazio touching the sprinkle a Fazio.
53:33>> Yeah, you could sprinkle a Fazio on that
53:34for sure.
53:35>> Yeah. EVR another guy who's you know he
53:37won at that tournament last week. So
53:39it's a lot of guys who would have been
53:40good like last week honestly and a lot
53:41of these guys were good last week.
53:43>> Yeah. And
53:46again, as long as this place is coming
53:47across, you're chewing up a lot of
53:49yardage in par threes and par fives. So,
53:52um, with an average par4 of just 430, I
53:55mean, I think that you're going to see a
53:56lot of guys if they pull driver out,
53:58they're going to be hitting shorter
54:00clubs in there and then they just have
54:01to really capitalize on those long iron
54:03shots.
54:04>> Uh, there's also the preset course
54:05filters if you want to take a look at
54:07them, the the ins and outs of scoring
54:08positions, course length. Um, like you
54:11filter out long, you filter in long,
54:13filter out very long. Scoring
54:15conditions, difficult in, very difficult
54:18out. If you think it's going to play
54:19difficult, you can always play around
54:20with all these. But if you just want
54:22like the easy button for that, you have
54:24that in the strokes gained splits
54:26category for whatever ROM loads up into
54:28there. But let's throw in greens and
54:29regulation. And we'll filter by
54:31conditions. And we'll have the easy and
54:33average in there. We've applied that
54:35already. And let's go to approach play
54:38and greens and regulation. Now, some of
54:40this is covered in the good drives gain
54:43stat that we've already thrown in, but
54:44just just to add it on because you said
54:46you think that this one could be the
54:47most important. I want to roll with you
54:49on this one and try to figure it out.
54:51So, now we have all of those in. We can
54:53go like 20
54:55>> 20 for four.
54:56>> Yeah, for sure.
54:58>> 15 15 for good drive and greens
55:00regulation. Maybe 10
55:03and 10 on the approach. Then you go
55:06birdie or better 10.
55:09We need to we need to bounce up 5%
55:11somewhere. Or where would you want to go
55:12here to add five to one or 10 to one?
55:15Which one would you want to do?
55:16>> I would um
55:19why don't we make the uh the two
55:20approach categories 15 each?
55:22>> All right, let's do that. See what this
55:24gives us. Who do you think number one is
55:26going to be?
55:27>> Oh, Doug Kim.
55:28>> No, maybe not. Maybe it's Blaze Brown.
55:31>> It could be
55:33>> Mayo Keith Austin 316
55:37>> barbecue baby. generate that model. Doug
55:40Gim and Blades Brown one and two. Alvo
55:42Ortiz is number three. David Ford, Rico
55:45Hoey is the top five. Smotherman,
55:47Kohl's, Crowe, Quaven, Kirk is the top
55:5010. Sub Horchel, Bowsho, Jordan Smith,
55:54Neil Shipley, Celinda Kefir, John Perry,
55:58Sheamus Power, and Christian Bizadenhout
56:00round out the top 20. This is not a
56:02strong field, but I I don't even hate I
56:05mean David Ford continues to pop up
56:07here. What what's the best number that
56:08you see for Ford? Cuz 37 to1 is the best
56:10number I see.
56:11>> Give me a second here.
56:1443 down here.
56:15>> 43 seems like a pretty reasonable number
56:17for a guy that whenever we filtered
56:19through this, be it form, approach,
56:20driving, that Ford was just up there
56:23every single time.
56:26>> And you could go you could
56:29Yeah, you're going to get somewhere
56:30between 45 and 55 on David Ford down
56:33here. And David Ford for what for what
56:35we're going through here. and you're
56:36using the the rabbit hole here.
56:38Definitely catches my attention for what
56:40you need to do. Um, you know, like going
56:43back to like when Jackson Suber was good
56:45at TPC Toronto, this is like a similar
56:48sort of skill set again. Like you have
56:49to hit fairways. There is trouble around
56:51there. Really difficult par 3es and
56:54score on the parfs. You know, how many
56:56how many mid-iron I won't call them long
56:58iron, but mid-iron shots were those guys
57:00hitting down the stretch in Toronto? Um,
57:03and Suber at that time was very good at
57:05them. Ben James, you know, the guys that
57:07were contending in that. Um,
57:10so Suber hasn't been great lately. I
57:12think he missed the cut last week. But,
57:14uh, you can see where I'm getting at.
57:16Um,
57:17>> and you and the courses that you've
57:19pointed to, be it Canada, John Deere, he
57:21was fourth, he was sixth, and his best
57:23result of the swing so far has been at
57:25the Builtmore.
57:27>> So, yeah, that's but that was also a
57:29while ago. Maybe maybe he's kind of
57:32timed out of his good form, but like the
57:35current guys that are playing like he
57:36did during those events are who we are
57:39who I'm most focused on. Um, you know,
57:42Texas Texas native and his number
57:47reflects it too. Your boy Mr. Cooty
57:50makes a lot of sense to me here this
57:51week. He was fourth TA Green last week
57:54at uh WWT. Oh
57:56>> man, I I I love Cooty, but
57:59Yeah, maybe the the number is short
58:01though.
58:03>> It is short. It's in the mid-30s. It is.
58:06>> So, let's take a let's just take a look
58:08to see if we can find anyone because we
58:09were trying to look for Pavon last week.
58:11If we just take a look at the
58:12leaderboard from the worldwide
58:14technologies to see what was happening
58:16there. Your approach leaders from last
58:18week, not Jorge VR who was minus 13
58:21strokes game on approach. Denny Kirk
58:23Jagger, Paul Peterson, go Jagger might
58:26be a play here. He lost seven strokes
58:28off. You have to be so bad at driving to
58:30lose that many strokes off the tea at
58:31that course.
58:32>> Well, he he obviously hit a couple off
58:34the planet. That's the only way that
58:36you're going to lose that many strokes
58:37at that place. He's a PGA Tour player,
58:39Pat. He's he's not missing every fairway
58:42that's 60 yards wide. He hit a handful
58:44of them just into penalties. So,
58:47Mccardi,
58:49Kirk, Jagger, Peterson, Grio, Ben James,
58:52Cody, Ecro, Bowshu, Remy, and the guys
58:56that really struggled putting. Bowshu is
58:57really interesting. Yeah, Cooty almost
58:59minus seven strokes lost putting. Bowshu
59:02as well. Bowshu by and large and maybe
59:04my recollection is wrong on this that
59:05Bowshu's been a really good putter over
59:07the course of the season that maybe it's
59:08just a bad week for him. Let's pass
59:11Palum down there. Some people just don't
59:12mix with that. But that's what I'm
59:14thinking with Cooty. And of course
59:16Ecros's another one, man. They're just
59:18sitting right there just kind of
59:21just kind of calling her name.
59:23>> Yeah, right there. I mean, could Cudy
59:27was fourth Ta Green for the week and he
59:30didn't putt well at all. Okay, fine. Um,
59:36>> yeah, Ford was 12th.
59:38>> Steven Fisk popping up here again, too.
59:40And TA Green lost almost seven strokes
59:41putting. Yeah, like the the biggest
59:43defenders. I didn't realize Fina was in
59:45the field last week, but Cody, Fisk, and
59:47Fen all dropped considerable strokes on
59:49the greens.
59:51>> Yeah.
59:52Yeah, there's there's something going on
59:54there in that range with a couple of
59:56those guys. They're hitting it good
59:57enough to do this. And then, you know,
1:00:03Cody,
1:00:05you know, write his name down. Where
1:00:07where was Fisk on the odds board?
1:00:10>> Oh, okay. Hang on.
1:00:11>> He's not playing. That's uh that's
1:00:12probably why. I think he was one of the
1:00:14guys who withdrew.
1:00:17>> Well, we got a D I didn't realize we
1:00:18were getting a Daniel Burger sighting
1:00:20this week. Look at that.
1:00:21>> Oh, yeah. are getting a burger sighting.
1:00:22>> How's your burger?
1:00:24>> Yeah. Well, medium well if I'm if I'm
1:00:26ordering. Yes.
1:00:28>> You know, I mean, this is a difference
1:00:29with the this is really a perfect
1:00:32example of the freedom of America
1:00:33versus, you know, just the tyranny of
1:00:35Canada that there is there are
1:00:37regulations within Canada that you
1:00:39cannot like order your hamburger at like
1:00:42a certain level. It has to be cooked to
1:00:44a certain level to avoid like food
1:00:45poisoning.
1:00:47I mean, I'm a medium well guy, so I I'm
1:00:50all for what Canada's trying to do then.
1:00:52>> Yeah, they just And there are certain
1:00:53provinces like the tyranny continues is
1:00:56that you can't you can't even have what
1:00:58is it? Uh when the raw beef uh [ __ ] my
1:01:03wife gets it all the time. Now it's it's
1:01:05beyond me. Like when the the the shaved
1:01:08off beef that's raw that you eat,
1:01:09karpacio, karpacio.
1:01:12>> Can't get it in some places.
1:01:13>> I don't eat raw sushi. Nothing. Not a
1:01:16raw guy.
1:01:17>> No, no, not at all.
1:01:18>> You're You're from You're from the
1:01:19ocean.
1:01:21>> Um,
1:01:23yeah, but I like my lobster cooked. I'm
1:01:24not a raw bar guy, you know. Um, just
1:01:28not Sorry if I'm letting people down.
1:01:31What's interesting, you talk about
1:01:32Canada. Canada's got like uh you guys
1:01:35are there's a lot of Canadians right
1:01:38there between like 100 and 110 on the
1:01:40FedEx Cup point list. It kind of popped
1:01:42out to me this week. I was like, "Oh,
1:01:44man." Yeah. Pendendrick's there, Matt.
1:01:46Hughes, your boy AJ Eert is up there.
1:01:49Like, they're all just sitting there.
1:01:51>> Yeah. I mean, it's not not good news for
1:01:53a lot of these guys. Who has the So,
1:01:55Corial's right on the cusp. In a perfect
1:01:58world, this does sound like a good Kevin
1:02:00U course, if there ever was one.
1:02:01>> Oh, definitely a good Kevin U golf
1:02:03course for sure.
1:02:06>> Right.
1:02:06>> I love that.
1:02:07>> Write down some Kevin. I'll have all my
1:02:08bets in the I don't think I'm ready to
1:02:10commit to like five guys right now. like
1:02:12that. It's one of the weeks where like
1:02:15in weeks like this where you have a lack
1:02:16of information,
1:02:18they're playing a course that we haven't
1:02:19seen before on tour. How do you go about
1:02:22making these bets? Like we can do as
1:02:24much deep diving as we want to, but do
1:02:26you feel like this is more of a this
1:02:28guy's in good form, this is how I think
1:02:30the course is going to play. Let me just
1:02:32fire at that skill set with the guys
1:02:34that I like. Is that your strategy this
1:02:36week? Because I was thinking about
1:02:36leaning that way.
1:02:39>> Yeah, absolutely. I'm I am all about
1:02:41playability. Um I I brought up roughly
1:02:45in my research 8 n 10 legitimate comps
1:02:49on the PGA Tour to how I think this golf
1:02:51course will play and then I just keep
1:02:53looking across in 2026 and 2025 2024
1:02:57like who's playing well on these types
1:02:59of venues. And it's not always just the
1:03:01player's name but like how do we know
1:03:03that that player competes? So, like I
1:03:06said when I was talking about Jackson
1:03:07Suber before when he had that run over
1:03:09the summer that he was like really good
1:03:10long iron player. He'd been playing
1:03:12those style of golf courses very very
1:03:14well. Like who is the Jackson Suber of
1:03:17the fall and I'm just digging into those
1:03:19types of players and I look at that
1:03:22skill set and then you just hone down
1:03:23for it. But I I go so heavy on the
1:03:25playability. I I mean I go heavy on the
1:03:27playability side um you know every
1:03:31single week. And I think that that's why
1:03:32we're always contending or we're always
1:03:34getting well [ __ ] I mean look at the
1:03:36LPGA. They don't have any data that's
1:03:38out there that that anyone can filter
1:03:39for anything. I create my own models and
1:03:41my own playability charts and then I
1:03:44I've had seven runner-ups this year and
1:03:45four winners in 28 events. That's 40% of
1:03:48the events. hat. You know, if you stick
1:03:50to how the golf course is asking you to
1:03:53play golf in order to win, then you are
1:03:55always going to be there in that top 10
1:03:57conversation. And then it's like, well,
1:03:59where do we go from there? Does the guy
1:04:00get a hot putter or does he not? Um, you
1:04:02know, Michael Kim made all the sense
1:04:04last week. I I didn't believe in him as
1:04:07much as you did, but it made sense. the
1:04:09the the model that we brought up last
1:04:11week. Um all 10
1:04:15what was the number again of that that
1:04:17top 10 that we had? Seven of the top 10
1:04:19were in the top 10 after like 54 holes
1:04:21or 36 holes or something like
1:04:23>> like that that was that conversation.
1:04:26These conversations that you and I have
1:04:28on this show are very playability driven
1:04:31whether you realize that or not. when
1:04:32you start asking me questions that I I
1:04:34am specifically talking about how
1:04:36someone is going to attack the golf
1:04:37course and that doesn't matter whether
1:04:40it's Scotty and Rory or now there's
1:04:41always outliers but that's why we don't
1:04:43fill out the entire we we can't get all
1:04:45top top 10 of the top 10 but we're going
1:04:47to get four or five of those guys every
1:04:49single week and then it's a question of
1:04:52you know did we land on the right names
1:04:54which is very very hard to do but we're
1:04:56we're we're not going to be wrong on how
1:04:57this golf course is going to be played
1:04:59right they got two inches of rain last
1:05:00week this place is you know, see deer
1:05:03run with elevation changes, put the ball
1:05:05in play off the tea, hit these green
1:05:07surfaces, be a decent Bermuda grass
1:05:10putter. Uh, it's probably going to be
1:05:11somewhat spongy and grainy on the greens
1:05:13because it's it's been so wet and, you
1:05:16know, we're down there where it's kind
1:05:18of like going to be a decent temperature
1:05:20for these guys to play golf and score
1:05:21and there's not a lot of wind until the
1:05:23weekend. So, expect a bunch of rabbits
1:05:25to go at least far into the double, you
1:05:27know, into the low teens over the first
1:05:2936 holes and after that hold on in the
1:05:31wind on the weekend because they're
1:05:32going to be playing at the worst time.
1:05:35>> We didn't mention a Blades Brown back to
1:05:37back because everything you just
1:05:38described sounds like Blades Brown in a
1:05:40weird way.
1:05:42>> Oh, it definitely does. Um
1:05:45I I think it um
1:05:48I think it's very natural for someone to
1:05:49let their foot off the gas. Again,
1:05:51Austin Smotherman was not back-to-back
1:05:52weeks. He took a week off in between.
1:05:55Um, so I I
1:05:58you know, I I I think that um Blades
1:06:01Brown would now be thinking about, you
1:06:03know, where he's going for
1:06:07the foreseeable future. I think RSM I I
1:06:10like him more for RSM next week than I
1:06:12do this week.
1:06:13>> Do you think he'll play RSM? What What
1:06:15incentive does he have to play RSM now?
1:06:17Well, his agency is Sport 5 and they
1:06:19have a huge office there. They have a
1:06:20ton of Sport 5 representation. So, it
1:06:23wouldn't be it wouldn't surprise me that
1:06:24there are uh corporate proceedings for
1:06:28during RSM week that are convenient for
1:06:30not only the managers and the agents,
1:06:31but for the players as well. And then
1:06:33you just wrap up your year and there you
1:06:35go. And I think Blades Brown, correct me
1:06:37if I'm wrong, I think he's in the Grant
1:06:38Thornton, too.
1:06:39>> Interesting. He's just I mean he's 19,
1:06:41can't drink, go play some golf.
1:06:43>> Yeah. I mean, um, but yeah, you get a
1:06:46lot of that Sea Island Mafia, um, that
1:06:49show up for that event and I I I think
1:06:50they could a lot they could check a lot
1:06:52of like of those appearance boxes, Pat.
1:06:54So, I wouldn't be surprised if you see
1:06:55him again. I mean, it's interesting. one
1:06:58name we haven't said in a long time and
1:07:00I know he hasn't played much but like
1:07:03with these young guys on the US side
1:07:05Brennan Blades Ben James Kven we haven't
1:07:09said the name Jackson um Ludvig Oberg in
1:07:12a while which is very interesting to me
1:07:14because you and I we love that guy Jeff
1:07:16loves that guy um it's just it's pretty
1:07:20interesting in my mind
1:07:22>> well it's somewhat difficult it's like
1:07:23what you talked about with Ash is that
1:07:25those guys are just playing a different
1:07:27level of golf in terms of competition
1:07:29versus what these guys are playing right
1:07:30now. Like Michael Brennan, yeah, he made
1:07:32the cut in all four majors. That's great
1:07:34and everything. He won the Windham. He
1:07:35won
1:07:37a no cut event in Japan. Like come out
1:07:39and win API like Ou then we can start
1:07:42talking.
1:07:43>> Yeah, it'll be interesting when
1:07:45everybody ramps back up in uh 2027. And
1:07:49uh
1:07:50>> Well, did you watch any of the the Euro?
1:07:51I guess you were watching LPGA and you
1:07:53know you probably were really honed into
1:07:55WTGL, but there was a pretty John John
1:07:58Rom just coming from the clouds of like
1:08:00coming in last place the last time we
1:08:01saw him to winning a Rolex series event
1:08:04just it was fun to watch.
1:08:06>> Oh man, I just you know I love
1:08:07competitive chaos and all that goes
1:08:09along with it. And the idea that Rahm
1:08:12could qualify to be in the top 10 on the
1:08:13DP World Tour but but still can't get
1:08:15his card and how that confuses so many
1:08:18people on Twitter. I mean, that's just
1:08:19the best entertainment in the world
1:08:21because people just obviously don't pay
1:08:23attention to the rules or the things
1:08:24that are written down. But, uh, good
1:08:26showing by Rahm. There's certainly uh,
1:08:28if if people were thinking that, uh, Liv
1:08:31was holding him back, this certainly
1:08:33presents a very strong case. Uh, who's
1:08:36who's the favorite for the tour
1:08:38championship? Rory and then Rahm or or
1:08:40does Ro
1:08:41>> I assume I assume it's Rory. I didn't
1:08:43actually look at it. I think Sky and Tom
1:08:45will have their final show of the year.
1:08:47Yes. Rory's plus 320. Rom's 6 to1.
1:08:50Fleetwood's 10 to1. Scott's 13. Hatton's
1:08:5315. Meanio is 17. Daniel Hillier is 19.
1:08:59>> Reed's 30. Right.
1:09:01>> Hillier's got to be in the top 10. He's
1:09:02got to be coming our way next year,
1:09:04right?
1:09:04>> Who? Hillier.
1:09:05>> Hillier.
1:09:05>> Yeah, I think he's fifth because Jarvis
1:09:08and it's Reed or it's Eugenio, then
1:09:11Reed, then the two South Africans,
1:09:13Shaper and Jarvis, and then I think it's
1:09:15Hillier. Okay.
1:09:18Yeah, they Well, Rory's got to be up
1:09:20there, too, right?
1:09:23>> For what?
1:09:24>> DP World Tour money list.
1:09:26>> Oh, I thought you just meant the the 10
1:09:27that are coming over to the PGA tour.
1:09:29>> Well, yeah, obviously he gets pulled out
1:09:32of that top 10. Um, I get that, but um
1:09:37>> I think it would take I think I don't
1:09:39know if it's finished yet, but I think
1:09:42that Shakara might have it close to
1:09:44locked up. Oh, really?
1:09:46>> Yeah. I think Rory needs to like win.
1:09:48Yeah, Rory's in second. I don't know
1:09:50what they have this week. Yeah, Rory's
1:09:52in second. He might be the only one that
1:09:54can catch up to Chakara.
1:09:56>> Yeah, this week is their their tour
1:09:57championship, right?
1:09:58>> Correct. Yeah, this is the final event.
1:09:59Rahm is sixth on the points list.
1:10:03If he goes backtoback wins, can he take
1:10:05it from Char?
1:10:06>> I don't believe so. No.
1:10:08>> That's a perfect That's a perfect
1:10:09example of what you were just talking
1:10:11about with different levels of players.
1:10:13like Charakar has played great over the
1:10:15last like what three to four months and
1:10:17he's like he's he's made his way to lead
1:10:19the thing and then all of a sudden at
1:10:20the end when it's time for the tour
1:10:21championship level elite players to come
1:10:24in and play you know Rory and Rahm are
1:10:26just coming in and just like you know
1:10:28taking names you just you know running
1:10:31away with the field I love it
1:10:32>> yeah was 22nd last week so I and he's
1:10:35still so young
1:10:36>> that it really feels like he could I
1:10:39mean he's one of these names that How
1:10:40old is Chakara? He's 26 and he, you
1:10:43know, he won his first, he left, he
1:10:45didn't play PGA, he went straight to
1:10:46Liv. I think he won his first event on
1:10:49Liv and then he got kicked off Liv
1:10:50because Sergio hated his guts and now
1:10:52he's just he came back and what does he
1:10:54have? Five wins in two years on DP,
1:10:58>> man. That that and you got to love the
1:11:00way that kid plays because he has an
1:11:02unconventional golf swing and the way he
1:11:04kind of approaches the game. So, you
1:11:06know that he owns it. you know that he
1:11:08supremely believes in the way that he
1:11:10plays golf and those are the guys that
1:11:11are dangerous Allah like over the years
1:11:13like a Jim Furick type of style player
1:11:15you know he's like the archetype of that
1:11:18right it's like you know probably took a
1:11:20ton of lessons people like hey man we
1:11:21got to work on this thing and he's like
1:11:22no I'm good with the swing like and uh
1:11:25those were always the kids on ranges I I
1:11:28don't know if I've ever said this to you
1:11:29before but like when I was out teaching
1:11:30highle kids and you go to an AJ event or
1:11:33national event or USGA junior or
1:11:35something and there was a kid on the
1:11:36range change that swung at funky and he
1:11:38had made it to that level of national
1:11:40event. I was like that kid's going to be
1:11:41on the leaderboard this week because
1:11:43that kid believes in what he's doing and
1:11:46you know he's not he's not trying to
1:11:47like be the next Adam Scott or something
1:11:49like that and uh those are always the
1:11:51kids I worried about. Jakar is a perfect
1:11:53example of that. Love it.
1:11:55>> He has the right it's weird that he's
1:11:57won so much on the European tour. Maybe
1:11:59his just skill level is so much higher
1:12:00when you get to these mid-tier DP World
1:12:02Tour events. But he has a PGA Tour skill
1:12:05set. Oh, 100%. Yeah. I mean,
1:12:10>> for everything we talk about with like
1:12:11Johnny Kefir, like Chakar is like the
1:12:13better version of that guy.
1:12:16>> Yeah. I mean, look where he went and
1:12:18played college golf. Division one golf
1:12:20right now is like equally as as
1:12:22competitive at the high highest level,
1:12:24those top 10 teams as the Cornferry tour
1:12:26for sure. you know, and case in point,
1:12:29taking the number one guy and putting
1:12:30him on, you know, the PGA Tour, like,
1:12:33and and look who those people have been.
1:12:35Ben James, Levig, David Ford, like, um,
1:12:39Michael Thorbyson. I mean, like, you
1:12:42heard it. Have you heard of any of these
1:12:43guys? They're pretty good. So, my short
1:12:46list of what I have right now, if you're
1:12:48in the comments, you know, throw me some
1:12:49names. I I got more work to do this week
1:12:52on where I want to finalize bet. I have
1:12:53no official bets in as of yet, but my
1:12:55first one I will send that over to cool
1:12:57bet to get them boosted up. But from our
1:12:59talk, I have five, seven names circled.
1:13:02Obviously, I'll probably cut it down to
1:13:03three or four. Ford, Jagger, Cody,
1:13:05Kevin, you power, Kefir, and Penge.
1:13:11I um
1:13:13definitely Kirk.
1:13:15>> You like Kirk? Further, Cooty further
1:13:18down the board, Ecro and Castillo
1:13:22catch my attention.
1:13:23>> All right. Do you have any questions for
1:13:25me?
1:13:25>> Oh,
1:13:27glad you asked.
1:13:28>> Hit me with some rapid fire questions,
1:13:30sir.
1:13:31>> All right. Have you in honor of uh the
1:13:34one and only, have you ever watched any
1:13:35good good content?
1:13:37>> Uh, no.
1:13:40>> Have you?
1:13:41>> No. I can't say that. I'm not like
1:13:43honestly the the most internet golf I've
1:13:45watched is me trying to edit the
1:13:47internet golf video that me and Pizzola
1:13:49and Kust are in. That's where my focus
1:13:51has been. Have you watched the the
1:13:52internet invitational? Because I've
1:13:54heard nothing but rave reviews about how
1:13:55good it is.
1:13:57>> Yes, it is extremely entertaining, but
1:13:59if you are like a diehard like hardo on
1:14:03the rules and like you want the golf to
1:14:05be like portrayed a certain way, then
1:14:07don't just don't watch it. I I wouldn't
1:14:09want to turn into an internet show with
1:14:12like fun people to see people be hardos
1:14:14about the rules. Like miss me with that.
1:14:17That's why I watch like for the PGA Tour
1:14:19and major championships. Sure. But I'm
1:14:22even like we have a friend who's like
1:14:24this. Like when we play it's just like
1:14:25guy
1:14:26we're we're not playing the most
1:14:28pristine courses here. You just drove it
1:14:29down the m like you just drove it down
1:14:31the middle of the fairway. We're not
1:14:32playing like you know we're not playing
1:14:34for thousands of dollars here. Yeah. You
1:14:36hit it into a dead patch in the middle
1:14:38of the fairway because you know it
1:14:39couldn't keep up with you know the
1:14:41grounds keeper missed it this morning.
1:14:42Like you can move it out of this like
1:14:44dirt patch that's in the middle of the
1:14:45fairway. That's fine, man. Go for it.
1:14:47Hey, I I'm a PGA professional and by all
1:14:50means I've had to, you know, be a rules
1:14:54official at golf tournaments, right? And
1:14:55you have to follow it to the letter of
1:14:57the law and I'm all for that. But if I'm
1:14:58out playing with you and Jeff and and
1:15:00whomever, right, I'm going to say on the
1:15:02first te like, "Hey, let's let's all
1:15:04just agree to be like civil and have fun
1:15:06today, right?" And within the within the
1:15:08letter of the law, if a situation like
1:15:10that comes up, like that's the one rule
1:15:12in golf that just doesn't make any sense
1:15:14to me that if you hit a divot in the
1:15:15center of the fairway and god forbid
1:15:17it's like sandfilled, too, that you have
1:15:19to play it out of there. And I know I'm
1:15:21supposed to be like, "Oh, Keith, you
1:15:22know, PGA, play the ball as it lies."
1:15:24But like it's at the same time like okay
1:15:26so if I give you a perfect lie is there
1:15:28any guarantee Pat that it's let's say
1:15:30it's a nine iron what's what's your
1:15:32accuracy percentage with a nine iron if
1:15:34I give you a perfect lie from the center
1:15:36of the fairway with a with a middle pin
1:15:38>> uh like 30%.
1:15:40>> Yeah. Okay. So let's make it like a 100
1:15:42times harder and put it in a sandfilled
1:15:44divot and then tell me like what your
1:15:47you like you're under 10% hit rate for
1:15:50that green regulation. So to start with,
1:15:52if it's like you're you're you're only
1:15:53going to hit one out of every three
1:15:55barely, like by all means take a perfect
1:15:58lie.
1:15:58>> Yeah. You're not. And and I don't want
1:16:00to watch guys that are like borderline
1:16:02professional golfers in these internet
1:16:04things either. I know there's a few of
1:16:05them there, but like the more compelling
1:16:07content to me would be like the 10
1:16:08handicap guy, th those folks under
1:16:12pressure. And the way that then they
1:16:15start, you know, because they're all if
1:16:17they've made it there, they're popular
1:16:18on YouTube. So, they know how to talk
1:16:20when they play golf and they know how to
1:16:22be entertaining. You may not like their
1:16:24form of entertainment, but they know how
1:16:25to be entertaining. So, they're gonna
1:16:28talk a ton, which to me is the more
1:16:31engaging part of all of this is how
1:16:33like, you know, they put 64 people
1:16:36together that all have like huge egos
1:16:38and like massive followings on YouTube,
1:16:40so you know that they're like pretty
1:16:41proud of themselves whether it's earned
1:16:42or not. Like, they're all a legend in
1:16:44their own mind. So, it's it's pretty
1:16:46interesting when you when you put those
1:16:48people in in a room together and like,
1:16:50you know, start to have like a, you
1:16:52know, you start measuring, if you know
1:16:53what I mean. Like, it's it's it's been
1:16:56entertaining for sure. But if you're
1:16:57like if you're worried about like Big
1:16:59Cat and Dave coming out and being like,
1:17:00"Well, just drop it over there and then
1:17:02play and you have a problem with that,
1:17:03then don't watch." But but if but if
1:17:05you're just there for entertainment
1:17:06purposes, I think it's been great. Well,
1:17:08there's even something as as the one of
1:17:09the clips that I saw was something as
1:17:11rudimentary and it was a perfect mirror
1:17:13to what happened on the DP World Tour
1:17:15this week was I don't know who it was,
1:17:17but like he went to go put his ball
1:17:18behind the club behind the ball and he
1:17:21shouted like, "Hey, the ball moved a bit
1:17:22like it oscillated a bit." The guy in
1:17:24the car like I don't [ __ ] care like
1:17:26whatever.
1:17:26>> Yeah. And but this happened to Rory over
1:17:29in Abu Dhabi as well and then you got a
1:17:31two-stroke penalty.
1:17:33>> Yeah. it. Case in point, if you're a
1:17:37type of person that needs Rory at at
1:17:40high definition, high-speed cameras to
1:17:42like get that two-stroke penalty, then
1:17:44don't watch the Internet Invitational.
1:17:46>> But if you want to see just like great
1:17:50entertainment on a golf course and a ton
1:17:52of like pressure shots and everything
1:17:54for people that certainly can't handle
1:17:55the pressure, um, that it's that it is
1:17:59truly entertaining. I don't know. I'm
1:18:00like four I don't know. There's like
1:18:01endless hours of this thing, Pat. I'm
1:18:03like four or five hours behind and I've
1:18:05seen so many social clips. So like I
1:18:06don't know. I I don't know if I'll ever
1:18:08finish it, but I started it. I think I'm
1:18:10in episode three. There you go.
1:18:11>> I I did want to give a special shout out
1:18:13to the Fantasy Golf degenerate show.
1:18:14Byron won a GPP last week on DraftKings
1:18:17and Kenny won one the week before. They
1:18:18are on fire. Uh just like you guys at
1:18:20Read the Line. Fantasy Golf Degenerates
1:18:22doing well. Everyone's doing well except
1:18:24for old Pat Mayo on the Mayo Media
1:18:26Network.
1:18:27>> All right. Well, speaking of doing well,
1:18:29let's get back to this rapid fire that
1:18:31is not so rapid at this point. All
1:18:34things being equal, what are the lowest
1:18:36odds that you would ever bet Doug Gim to
1:18:38win a PGA Tour event?
1:18:40>> At this point in time,
1:18:42>> at at this point in his career,
1:18:44>> 75 to one.
1:18:46>> Wow. Was I thought you were gonna say
1:18:48triple digits for sure. But anyway,
1:18:50>> I say I would say that, but I've bet him
1:18:52at 75 to one before, so I I can't lie.
1:18:56>> All right. um the new playoff on the PGA
1:18:59Tour, it they just go they're gonna keep
1:19:01playing the 18th hole and they have good
1:19:03reasons for doing that. That's where the
1:19:04crowd is. You know, they bring the
1:19:06players right back to the crowd. Um the
1:19:08guys know the hole. Hopefully they would
1:19:09score better on it. Uh what do you what
1:19:12do you think makes the best playoff hole
1:19:15on the PGA? No, non- major non-players.
1:19:18What do you think makes the best playoff
1:19:19hole 18th hole on the PGA tour?
1:19:24So, like this. The reason I thought of
1:19:26this was that because last week with a
1:19:28scorable par five, you would think that
1:19:29would go on forever.
1:19:30>> Yeah, but that's I I don't like par
1:19:32fives as playoff holes at all.
1:19:34>> Neither do I. Neither do I. And I don't
1:19:36think par threes are the best either,
1:19:38but I I'm not trying to bias your answer
1:19:41here.
1:19:42>> I'm just trying to think. I'm just
1:19:43trying to
1:19:44>> So, if I had to choose just two and it's
1:19:47early season stuff, so maybe I'm just
1:19:49missing something here. Oh, no. That's
1:19:51actually a good one, too. of ones that
1:19:52are actually a playoff hole or just any
1:19:5418th hole that I could pick.
1:19:55>> It's got to be the 18th hole. Okay,
1:19:56because that's the one they're going to
1:19:57use going forward. So, which course has
1:20:00the best playoff 18th hole on the PGA
1:20:02Tour?
1:20:03>> Bay Hill.
1:20:05>> I had Bay Hill second.
1:20:06>> I I had Harbortown, Bay Hill, and
1:20:09Riviera.
1:20:11>> Riviera.
1:20:14Okay. Harbortown I don't like because
1:20:16it's so wide for the T-shot. I think Bay
1:20:18Hill, you're you're tested on both
1:20:20shots, which I think is great. I also
1:20:22put John Deere, TPC Deer Run, because
1:20:24like
1:20:26you can get Ben Coohl's to hook it into
1:20:28the water for you.
1:20:29>> You could have train wrecks there,
1:20:30right? But I had Bay Hill and and TPC
1:20:32John Deere. Um, name the highest ranked
1:20:36FedEx Cup points player in the field
1:20:39this week.
1:20:42This is a tough one.
1:20:44>> Andrew Novak.
1:20:46Uh,
1:20:47no.
1:20:50Eric Cole is number 49.
1:20:54>> I had to look it up.
1:20:55>> Yeah,
1:20:56>> he can't be 49. No one from the top 50
1:20:58is in
1:21:00>> in the field.
1:21:01>> Yeah,
1:21:01>> Eric Eric Cole's not in the field.
1:21:04>> Eric Cole's in the top I thought really
1:21:06Eric Cole's in the top 50.
1:21:08>> He says he's 49th
1:21:10>> that
1:21:10>> on the PJ tour website.
1:21:15Yeah, I think I'm looking at Eric
1:21:17>> Cole.
1:21:17>> He's definitely on my odds board.
1:21:20>> Eric Cole's inside the top 50. I did. I
1:21:22would not have guessed that.
1:21:23>> I would have thought he was 83rd in the
1:21:25FedEx Cup standings.
1:21:27>> That's why I thought it was an
1:21:28interesting question for our to anyone
1:21:30that's made it to this point.
1:21:31>> Interesting.
1:21:32>> Okay. Yes.
1:21:33>> Okay. We're going to see a lot of
1:21:35terrain changes this week, Pat. For your
1:21:38game specifically, what do you find to
1:21:40be harder, uphill approaches or downhill
1:21:42approaches?
1:21:43>> Uhhill.
1:21:45All right.
1:21:46>> I love a downhill approach.
1:21:50>> Downhills are a tough man. You always
1:21:51pull them.
1:21:52>> Yeah, but I'm a I'm a lower ball flight
1:21:54player, so I can kind of club down, keep
1:21:56the ball low, and tend to roll it up
1:21:58wherever I kind of want to versus I
1:22:00don't have that sky ball that I can get
1:22:02to really stop on elevated greens.
1:22:06>> It's a great answer. Favorite comp
1:22:08course for the canyons course here at at
1:22:12Bart Creek.
1:22:14Builtmore. [laughter]
1:22:16>> Fair enough. All right. Cliffs at Walnut
1:22:18Creek. Fair enough. Um,
1:22:22when is it acceptable to start pushing
1:22:25this all this Christmas nonsense? I need
1:22:28a date on the calendar.
1:22:30>> Like when you should start putting up
1:22:31your Christmas stuff.
1:22:32>> No. No. Like when's it acceptable for
1:22:34society to start doing this? Because I'm
1:22:36like we're seeing this stuff in October,
1:22:38Pat. It's out of control. You know,
1:22:39>> the day the day after Halloween is when
1:22:41it's now become socially acceptable. I
1:22:43mean, I don't care either way. I'm
1:22:44thinking like December 1st. I mean, I
1:22:46guess in the States after Thanksgiving
1:22:48is probably the answer, isn't it?
1:22:50>> I think so. I'm down with that. I mean,
1:22:52we're s people having Black Friday sales
1:22:54already.
1:22:55>> It's not even Friday. I mean, I Anyway,
1:22:59last one. Who wins the Austin
1:23:02Championship, my friend?
1:23:04David Ford. O, he's gonna find his way
1:23:08on the card, I think, for sure. All
1:23:10right, my friend. Uh, I will be at RSM
1:23:13next week, so stay tuned on uh travel
1:23:16plans, but um I will be I'll be at I'll
1:23:19be at the golf course to close out the
1:23:21uh 2026 PGA Tour season, my friend.
1:23:24>> We did it. I I did we did we miss an
1:23:25event this year? I feel like there's one
1:23:27we skipped. Zurich, maybe.
1:23:29>> We definitely didn't do Zurich for sure.
1:23:32And um I may have missed one in the fall
1:23:35due to travel coming back from uh
1:23:37President's Cup. What week was that?
1:23:39Utah.
1:23:40>> Yeah, noon. Nonan filled in that week.
1:23:42>> Yeah. So, um I missed two. I missed two.
1:23:46I'll strive to be I'll strive to be
1:23:48better next year, Pat.
1:23:48>> Yeah, we'll we'll we'll try to go 100%.
1:23:50Bad 100 next year. But thank you. We got
1:23:52one more show. So, everyone who demanded
1:23:55fall golf content. You've got it every
1:23:57single week. So, smash a like, sub to
1:23:59the channel, turn on those
1:24:00notifications, and go follow Keith at KJ
1:24:03Stewart PGA and at readtheline.com. You
1:24:06can get the link to his email and link
1:24:09to his newsletter. sorry that will hit
1:24:10you in the email down in the comment
1:24:12section in show notes. Ditto for my
1:24:14newsletter which will have all of my
1:24:15final picks and course preview coming
1:24:17out on Wednesday. All right, thank you
1:24:19all for watching. I'm Pat Maro. I'll see
1:24:21you next time. Experience.
1:24:25Experience.

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