【速報】ASML・CPI・アンソロピック・TSMCで日本株が激変する条件 — Transcript

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1. 0:01Today, I will explain under the title "
2. 0:04Conditions for a Shift in Japanese
3. 0:06Stocks: ASML, US CPI, Anthropic
4. 0:08Briefing, and TSMC Earnings." It is
5. 0:139:03 AM on October 14th; the Nikkei
6. 0:16Average is at 60,830 yen, approximately
7. 0:20252 yen higher than yesterday's close
8. 0:23of 60,578 yen. At first glance, it is a
9. 0:27minor rebound, but starting today, we
10. 0:29face a series of catalysts that will
11. 0:31test growth expectations for
12. 0:32semiconductors and AI, along with US
13. 0:34interest rate outlooks. We have ASML's
14. 0:38earnings around 2:00 PM today, the US
15. 0:41CPI at 9:30 PM tonight, reports of an
16. 0:43Anthropic briefing for institutional
17. 0:45investors on the 14th local time, and
18. 0:47the TSMC earnings briefing at 3:00 PM
19. 0:50the following day. I will give you the
20. 0:54answer first. The view that the Nikkei
21. 0:56must rise if all four factors are
22. 0:58positive is dangerous. The biggest
23. 1:01turning point is whether the speed of
24. 1:03corporate growth expectations or the
25. 1:05speed at which stock valuations are
26. 1:06lowered by interest rates will prevail.
27. 1:10Furthermore, for stocks that were
28. 1:11bought up ahead of earnings, strong
29. 1:13results can trigger profit-taking sales
30. 1:15. The fact that the Nikkei Average was
31. 1:18pushed back to 60,578 yen with a wide
32. 1:20price range yesterday is proof that the
33. 1:23market is not moving solely on upside
34. 1:25expectations. I will share my outlook
35. 1:28first. This time, it is interest rates
36. 1:30that will determine the direction of
37. 1:32the Nikkei Average. It is earnings that
38. 1:33will determine the price range. If you
39. 1:36weigh all four equally, you will
40. 1:37misjudge this. I will talk about the
41. 1:39conditions under which this outlook
42. 1:41might be wrong in the second half, with
43. 1:43specific dates and numbers. In
44. 1:45yesterday's video, I stated that if the
45. 1:47closing price on Thursday the 15th
46. 1:49falls below 60,759 yen and the number
47. 1:51of declining stocks exceeds advancing
48. 1:53stocks on the same day, I would
49. 1:55withdraw my "red from semiconductors"
50. 1:58outlook. As of 9:03 AM today, we are
51. 2:01about 970 yen above that level. The
52. 2:04final judgment will be based on
53. 2:06tomorrow's closing price. Chapter 1: A
54. 2:09schedule check—Tokyo is only open for
55. 2:11two hours, and all four critical events
56. 2:14will not conclude within exactly 24
57. 2:16hours starting from 2:00 PM today. The
58. 2:20TSMC briefing is tomorrow, the 15th, at
59. 2:223:00 PM, which is 25 hours after the
60. 2:25ASML announcement. Also, while it is
61. 2:28reported that Anthropic will host
62. 2:29institutional investors in San
63. 2:31Francisco on the 14th local time, the
64. 2:33start time and the materials to be
65. 2:35released have not been confirmed. It is
66. 2:37possible that it will spill over into
67. 2:39the 15th Japan time. Now, let's overlay
68. 2:42these times onto the Tokyo market
69. 2:44schedule. The Tokyo cash equity market
70. 2:47closes at 3:30 PM. If ASML’s
71. 2:49announcement is around 2:00 PM, that
72. 2:51leaves about an hour and a half of
73. 2:53trading. With the TSMC briefing
74. 2:56tomorrow at 3:00 PM, that leaves only
75. 2:5830 minutes, or about two hours total.
76. 3:02U.S. CTA data, ASML management
77. 3:04commentary, and Anthropic news will all
78. 3:06break while Tokyo is closed. In short,
79. 3:11holders of Japanese cash stocks will
80. 3:12receive most of the impact at the next
81. 3:14morning's opening price. We won’t
82. 3:18treat scheduled times and reported
83. 3:20information equally, focusing on what
84. 3:22will be reflected on the 5th. Chapter 2
85. 3:25: Of the 3,740 yen drop, only
86. 3:27one-fourth has been recovered. The
87. 3:31starting point is the October 6th high
88. 3:34of 70,798 yen and yesterday the 13 th's
89. 3:37low of 67,058 yen. The difference is
90. 3:41approximately 3,740 yen. This
91. 3:44represents a move of over 5%. Yesterday
92. 3:47alone, there was a range of about 1,652
93. 3:50yen between the high of 68,710 yen and
94. 3:53the low. The shift between buyers and
95. 3:56sellers is so intense it isn't visible
96. 3:57by looking only at the closing price.
97. 4:00Let’s place this morning's 68,030 yen
98. 4:02within this price range. That's a
99. 4:06recovery of about 970 yen from the low,
100. 4:08which is only about one-fourth of the
101. 4:113,740 yen drop. For those who bought at
102. 4:15the peak, the price is still about
103. 4:172,770 yen lower. So even if strong news
104. 4:20comes out, we may see selling from
105. 4:22those who bought before the plunge.
106. 4:26Conversely, if short sellers are forced
107. 4:28to cover, the price move could exceed
108. 4:30the change in corporate earnings. When
109. 4:33short sellers are forced to buy back
110. 4:35stock, driving prices up, we call it a
111. 4:37"short squeeze." Our current position
112. 4:39is one where both of these scenarios
113. 4:41could occur. Chapter 3: An 11 billion
114. 4:44euro ASML figure won't be a surprise.
115. 4:47Now, for the first major topic: ASML.
116. 4:51ASML is a globally critical company for
117. 4:53the lithography systems used to print
118. 4:55semiconductor circuits. What we want to
119. 4:59know from today’s earnings isn't just
120. 5:00whether current sales were strong. We
121. 5:04want to know how much global chipmakers
122. 5:06plan to spend on new factories and
123. 5:08manufacturing equipment. ASML’s new
124. 5:12orders provide a vital clue to those
125. 5:14investment decisions. In its previous
126. 5:18earnings report in July, ASML projected
127. 5:20revenue for the July-September quarter
128. 5:23to be between 11 and 12 billion euros,
129. 5:25with a gross margin of 55%to 57%. They
130. 5:30also raised their revenue forecast for
131. 5:32the year 2026 from 43 billion to 45
132. 5:35billion euros. The market is currently
133. 5:37reporting expectations that revenue for
134. 5:39this quarter will reach approximately
135. 5:4111.7 billion euros. Since the midpoint
136. 5:44of the company's guidance is 11.5
137. 5:46billion euros, the market is already
138. 5:48looking above that midpoint. Therefore,
139. 5:51simply exceeding 11 billion euros
140. 5:53cannot be called a surprisingly strong
141. 5:55earnings result. This is because it
142. 5:56falls within the range the company had
143. 5:58already announced. Even if orders are
144. 6:00strong, there are differences that must
145. 6:02be verified. Has there been an increase
146. 6:05in equipment for cutting-edge
147. 6:06semiconductors, an expansion in
148. 6:08memory-related investment, or perhaps a
149. 6:10large, temporary order from a specific
150. 6:12customer? This breakdown changes how
151. 6:15Japanese stocks are perceived. Tokyo
152. 6:17Electron, SCREEN, and Lasertec are all
153. 6:20semiconductor-related stocks, but they
154. 6:22specialize in different processes. Just
155. 6:25because ASML’s lithography equipment
156. 6:27sells well does not mean another
157. 6:29company's cleaning or inspection
158. 6:30equipment will sell at the same rate.
159. 6:33The ripple effect depends on whether
160. 6:35the customer plans to expand the entire
161. 6:37factory or not. What makes it more
162. 6:39complex is when strong orders and
163. 6:41strong profits do not occur
164. 6:42simultaneously. Depending on factors
165. 6:45like staffing, parts procurement,
166. 6:47equipment shipments, and service
167. 6:49revenue mix, profitability can fall
168. 6:51below market expectations even if sales
169. 6:53grow. Conversely, even if sales are
170. 6:56below expectations, showing high
171. 6:58profitability and shipping targets for
172. 7:002027 could increase expectations for
173. 7:02future profits. Instead of judging by a
174. 7:05single number, we look at whether new
175. 7:07orders and profit margin forecasts are
176. 7:09moving in the same direction. ASML is
177. 7:12scheduled to hold a management
178. 7:14presentation tonight around 23:00 Japan
179. 7:16Standard Time. The initial reaction to
180. 7:19the headline numbers is the first
181. 7:20evaluation. The reaction from investors
182. 7:22who hear the evening presentation is
183. 7:24the second evaluation. Even if Japanese
184. 7:26semiconductor stocks are bought in the
185. 7:28afternoon, if the assessment changes in
186. 7:30European or US markets afterward,
187. 7:32tomorrow morning's Japanese stocks may
188. 7:34start with a gap down. Furthermore,
189. 7:36active trading takes place in between.
190. 7:40You cannot explain the changes in
191. 7:41overnight futures based solely on
192. 7:43ASML's figures. Chapter 4: Interest
193. 7:46rates determine the direction of the
194. 7:49CPI. Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US will
195. 7:53announce the September Consumer Price
196. 7:55Index (CPI). This is not about
197. 7:58corporate capital investment, but
198. 8:00rather a factor that changes borrowing
199. 8:02costs and stock valuations. While
200. 8:05forecasts vary by source, a general
201. 8:08benchmark is around 3.6%to 3.7%
202. 8:10year-on-year for the headline index,
203. 8:13and about 2.5%year-on-year (or 0.2%
204. 8:15month-on-month) excluding food and
205. 8:18energy. What matters is not whether the
206. 8:21number is high or low, but the
207. 8:23difference from the consensus forecast.
208. 8:25Why is it dangerous for this CPI
209. 8:26release to coincide with semiconductor
210. 8:29earnings? Because US long-term interest
211. 8:31rates are already at a high level. As
212. 8:35of October 13, reports indicate the US
213. 8:3710-year Treasury yield is around 5.2%.
214. 8:41If these rates rise further, companies
215. 8:43with high stock prices based on
216. 8:45expectations of future large profits
217. 8:47are more likely to be re-evaluated as
218. 8:49overvalued. This allows for
219. 8:51counter-intuitive movements where
220. 8:53related US growth stocks are sold off
221. 8:55even if ASML or TSMC report strong
222. 8:57earnings. This is why I believe
223. 9:00interest rates determine the market's
224. 9:02direction. While earnings change the
225. 9:06profit outlook for a single company,
226. 9:07interest rates change the pricing model
227. 9:09for all growth stocks at once. For this
228. 9:13CPI, we need to separate energy price
229. 9:15hikes, such as gasoline, from the
230. 9:17underlying trend of inflation. Even if
231. 9:20the headline index exceeds market
232. 9:22expectations, if the core index (
233. 9:24excluding food and energy) is in line
234. 9:26with forecasts, it may be dismissed as
235. 9:28being caused by temporary energy price
236. 9:30increases. Conversely, if underlying
237. 9:33inflation also exceeds expectations, it
238. 9:35strengthens the view that the US
239. 9:36central bank will keep rates high,
240. 9:38which could impact the valuation of
241. 9:40semiconductor stocks as a whole. The
242. 9:43next monetary policy meeting is
243. 9:44scheduled for late October. This CPI
244. 9:47serves as data to adjust expectations
245. 9:49ahead of that meeting. However, rising
246. 9:52interest rates do not necessarily lead
247. 9:54directly to a decline in the Nikkei
248. 9:56Stock Average. Higher interest rates
249. 9:58can sometimes lead to a stronger dollar
250. 10:00and a weaker yen, which can be a
251. 10:02tailwind for Japanese exporters. On the
252. 10:05other hand, if US semiconductor stocks
253. 10:07fall sharply, selling could spill over
254. 10:09into high-priced Japanese semiconductor
255. 10:11stocks, which have a strong influence
256. 10:13on the index. The tailwind of a weak
257. 10:16yen and the headwind of semiconductor
258. 10:18stocks; the direction of the Nikkei
259. 10:20depends on the scale of both. Here is
260. 10:23one figure that indicates caution
261. 10:25across the entire market. It is
262. 10:27reported that a US
263. 10:28semiconductor-related ETF has fallen
264. 10:31for six consecutive trading days. Even
265. 10:35with strong demand for AI, investors
266. 10:37holding the stocks may be taking
267. 10:38profits and starting to question the
268. 10:40recovery of their invested capital. The
269. 10:44performance of semiconductor companies
270. 10:46and the flow of funds from investors
271. 10:48buying semiconductor stocks are not the
272. 10:49same. When these two diverge, earnings
273. 10:52announcements are more likely to create
274. 10:54large price swings. Chapter 5:
275. 10:56Anthropic—how many years will it take
276. 10:59to recover costs? This brings us to the
277. 11:02third factor: Anthropic. This is the
278. 11:05most easily misunderstood of the four
279. 11:06points. Anthropic is a company that
280. 11:10develops generative AI for text and
281. 11:11programming. Bloomberg reports, citing
282. 11:16sources, that they plan to meet with
283. 11:18some institutional investors in San
284. 11:20Francisco on October 14th. This is said
285. 11:23to be an investor briefing with an eye
286. 11:25toward an IPO, but unlike a public
287. 11:27earnings call, it is not an event with
288. 11:29widely announced times and materials.
289. 11:32The timing of when their statements
290. 11:33will reach the market is also uncertain
291. 11:35. So, why would a briefing by an
292. 11:37unlisted AI company affect Japanese
293. 11:39semiconductor stocks? It is because it
294. 11:43could provide clues to the question of
295. 11:45whether AI growth can generate revenue
296. 11:47commensurate with the massive costs of
297. 11:48the computers and data centers
298. 11:50supporting it. When AI-related capital
299. 11:55investment surges, demand passes
300. 11:57sequentially to image processing
301. 11:59semiconductors, the equipment that
302. 12:01makes them, memory chips, and data
303. 12:03center power facilities. However, if AI
304. 12:07service sales grow but they must
305. 12:09continue spending many times that
306. 12:10amount in costs, a different problem
307. 12:12arises regarding the profitability of
308. 12:14the overall investment. The market has
309. 12:17recently become increasingly concerned
310. 12:19about who bears those costs and how
311. 12:20many years it will take to recover them
312. 12:22. ASML and TSMC represent the earnings
313. 12:25of the side that makes semiconductors.
314. 12:28Anthropic represents the side that buys
315. 12:30and uses those semiconductors. No
316. 12:33matter how strong orders are on the
317. 12:35supply side, if the user side cannot
318. 12:37keep paying, orders will eventually
319. 12:38stop. That is why I view this briefing
320. 12:42as having a different nature compared
321. 12:44to the other four. Even if customer
322. 12:47growth or revenue increases are shown,
323. 12:49if spending on computing resources and
324. 12:51contract terms remain opaque, it's
325. 12:52impossible to judge how much that
326. 12:54growth will translate into profits.
327. 12:57Please do not jump on rumors regarding
328. 12:59specific valuations or earnings here.
329. 13:02Valuations for private companies are
330. 13:04not figures that can be constantly
331. 13:06verified in the market. Amounts
332. 13:09reported by sources are not necessarily
333. 13:10figures officially announced by the
334. 13:12company. We must distinguish between
335. 13:17public performance data from new
336. 13:19business initiatives, computing
337. 13:20equipment procurement plans, and orders
338. 13:22from Japanese firms inferred from that
339. 13:24data. If the explanation of
340. 13:29profitability is strong, investors who
341. 13:31felt uneasy about upfront investments
342. 13:33may change their perspective. If only
343. 13:35the scale is emphasized and the
344. 13:37explanation for capital recovery is
345. 13:39weak, investors may remain cautious
346. 13:40about giving related stocks a high
347. 13:42rating. And this question leads
348. 13:44directly to TSMC's earnings
349. 13:46announcement the following day. Chapter
350. 13:496: TSMC's 50%revenue growth is already
351. 13:52known. For TSMC, significant figures
352. 13:56have already been released. On October
353. 13:598th, revenue for September was
354. 14:00approximately 51.9 billion Taiwan
355. 14:02dollars. It was announced as an
356. 14:05approximate 55%increase compared to the
357. 14:07same month last year. Quarterly revenue
358. 14:09from July to September was
359. 14:11approximately 1.49 trillion Taiwan
360. 14:13dollars, an increase of about 50%
361. 14:15year-on-year, marking a record high. It
362. 14:18is reported that this also exceeded
363. 14:20market expectations. Calculating this,
364. 14:22the monthly average for the quarter was
365. 14:25around 497 billion Taiwan dollars, with
366. 14:27September exceeding that by about 3%.
367. 14:30It was a quarter that finished on an
368. 14:31upward trend. Therefore, even if we
369. 14:34learn tomorrow that revenue grew by
370. 14:36about 50%, that information is not
371. 14:37coming out for the first time. What the
372. 14:41market expects from tomorrow's earnings
373. 14:43is how much of this growth translates
374. 14:44into profit and whether it will
375. 14:46continue into the next quarter. TSMC's
376. 14:49previous guidance for the
377. 14:51July-September period was 44.6 to 45.8
378. 14:55billion USD in revenue, with a gross
379. 14:58margin of 65%to 67%. The operating
380. 15:03margin was 56%to 58%. We already know
381. 15:07that revenue is strong. So the focus
382. 15:10below is whether the profit margins
383. 15:11fall at the high end or the low end of
384. 15:13that range. There are several reasons
385. 15:16why profit margins might drop even when
386. 15:18sales are strong. Whether it's
387. 15:22increased costs for overseas plant
388. 15:24startups, shifts in product mix, or
389. 15:25higher-than-expected mass production
390. 15:27expenses, it's too early to conclude AI
391. 15:29demand has vanished based on a
392. 15:31short-term margin dip. Conversely, even
393. 15:36if high margins persist, investors will
394. 15:38worry about stalling growth if sales
395. 15:40forecasts for the next quarter are
396. 15:42cautious. Current profit margins and
397. 15:45future outlooks are reflecting
398. 15:46different time frames. Another critical
399. 15:50factor is TSMC's capital expenditure.
400. 15:54While increased investment means cash
401. 15:56outflow for TSMC, it represents future
402. 15:58revenue for Japanese equipment and
403. 16:00materials manufacturers. The same
404. 16:03announcement holds opposite meanings
405. 16:05depending on the company. Whether it's
406. 16:09factory construction, increased
407. 16:11production of advanced chips, or
408. 16:12advanced packaging, the Japanese
409. 16:14companies that benefit change based on
410. 16:16the investment target. Advantest has
411. 16:21strong ties to semiconductor testing
412. 16:23demand, while Tokyo Electron and Screen
413. 16:25relate to manufacturing process
414. 16:27equipment investment. Fujikura and
415. 16:29Furukawa Electric are affected through
416. 16:31a different path: optical communication
417. 16:34demand for building AI data centers,
418. 16:36rather than chip manufacturing. For
419. 16:38Kioxia, the price and supply-demand
420. 16:40balance of NAND flash memory are what
421. 16:42matter. Just because TSMC's advanced
422. 16:45chips are selling doesn't mean
423. 16:46Kioxia’s sales prices will
424. 16:48necessarily rise. The catch-all term "
425. 16:51AI-related stocks" hides completely
426. 16:53different profit mechanisms. Tomorrow's
427. 16:57TSMC briefing starts at 3 PM Japan time
428. 16:59, right before the close of the Tokyo
429. 17:01cash market. If the information isn't
430. 17:05fully digested during trading hours,
431. 17:07valuations could shift from tomorrow's
432. 17:09night session through the next
433. 17:10morning's open. Furthermore, the U.S.
434. 17:14Producer Price Index is scheduled for
435. 17:15the night of the 15th. New interest
436. 17:18rate data will hit before the four
437. 17:20valuations have even settled. In
438. 17:24Chapter 7, "Four Factors, Four
439. 17:26Combinations," how will these four
440. 17:28factors move the Nikkei average? I look
441. 17:33at them grouped along two axes. One is
442. 17:36the growth axis: ASML's orders,
443. 17:39Anthropic's revenue, and TSMC's profit
444. 17:41margins and capital investment. The
445. 17:44other factor is the interest rate axis,
446. 17:46specifically tonight's CPI. The first
447. 17:49scenario is a combination of strong
448. 17:50growth and stabilizing interest rates.
449. 17:54If ASML's orders are strong, core CPI
450. 17:56comes in below expectations, Anthropic
451. 17:58explains its earnings sustainability,
452. 18:01and TSMC also beats market expectations
453. 18:03, we get a tailwind from both growth
454. 18:05and rates. In this case, whether or not
455. 18:09investors who had been shorting
456. 18:10semiconductor stocks decide to cover
457. 18:12their positions will further determine
458. 18:14the range of the move. However, it is
459. 18:15impossible to determine exactly how
460. 18:17much short-covering actually occurred
461. 18:19based on price action alone. The second
462. 18:21scenario is weak growth and rising
463. 18:23interest rates; this is the pattern we
464. 18:25must watch out for most. If ASML's
465. 18:29orders and outlook fall short, core CPI
466. 18:31exceeds expectations, and interest
467. 18:33rates rise further, we would see a
468. 18:35simultaneous decline in corporate
469. 18:37earnings forecasts and the valuations
470. 18:39assigned to stocks. If anxieties about
471. 18:43investment returns grow and even TSMC
472. 18:45indicates a cautious approach to
473. 18:47capital expenditure, the selling could
474. 18:49spread beyond just some AI-related
475. 18:51stocks to the entire index. The results
476. 18:54for each are not yet in; this is a
477. 18:56hypothetical scenario based on
478. 18:57combining conditions. The third
479. 18:59scenario is strong growth despite
480. 19:01rising interest rates. Even if ASML
481. 19:04reports strong earnings, if the CPI
482. 19:06spikes, the force that pushed Japanese
483. 19:08stocks up in the afternoon could
484. 19:10reverse at night. The fourth scenario
485. 19:13is weak growth despite falling interest
486. 19:14rates. Even if ASML disappoints, if CPI
487. 19:18stabilizes and interest rates fall,
488. 19:20oversold semiconductor stocks might
489. 19:22rebound, potentially helping the Nikkei
490. 19:24average recover the following morning.
491. 19:28What I am paying the most attention to
492. 19:29are these conflicting third and fourth
493. 19:31scenarios. This is because the
494. 19:33direction of price movement tends to
495. 19:34flip between the afternoon and the next
496. 19:36morning. I continue to update which of
497. 19:38the four scenarios we are in every
498. 19:40trading day during my Nikkei commentary
499. 19:42in the salon as each announcement is
500. 19:44released. Chapter 8: Indices, futures,
501. 19:47and price ranges—the Nikkei average
502. 19:50index itself has unique characteristics
503. 19:52. When high-priced semiconductor stocks
504. 19:55move significantly, the price range of
505. 19:57specific stocks impacts the index more
506. 19:59than the number of advancing issues.
507. 20:02Even if the Nikkei average rises
508. 20:03significantly, if TOPIX or the number
509. 20:05of advancing stocks does not follow
510. 20:07suit, we cannot say that capital has
511. 20:09returned to the broader Japanese stock
512. 20:11market. Conversely, even if the Nikkei
513. 20:13average is weak, banking, domestic
514. 20:15demand, and resource sectors may remain
515. 20:17healthy, which is different from a
516. 20:19total collapse. You cannot measure the
517. 20:22risk of your holdings based solely on
518. 20:24index numbers. You must also
519. 20:25distinguish between futures and spot
520. 20:27markets. When overseas investors
521. 20:29quickly change their outlook on
522. 20:31Japanese stocks, futures often move
523. 20:33first. Subsequently, index-linked
524. 20:36traders and arbitrageurs exploiting
525. 20:38price gaps between futures and spot
526. 20:40markets spread the influence to
527. 20:42individual stocks. However, a surge in
528. 20:45futures does not necessarily mean that
529. 20:47the earnings outlook for individual
530. 20:49companies has improved. You should
531. 20:52check if related stocks rose broadly
532. 20:53with volume, or if only futures surged
533. 20:55ahead. This serves as a clue to
534. 20:58distinguish between a short squeeze and
535. 21:00sustainable buying. Regarding price
536. 21:03ranges, there is no need to set
537. 21:04groundless target values. If it falls
538. 21:07below yesterday's low of around 60,758
539. 21:10yen again, it indicates that
540. 21:11yesterday's rally was not short-term
541. 21:13sustainable. Conversely, if it
542. 21:16establishes itself above yesterday's
543. 21:18high of around 68,711 yen, it is a new
544. 21:20observation that it has moved past the
545. 21:22price range where selling pressure
546. 21:24emerged during the plunge. From this
547. 21:27morning's level of 60,830 yen, the
548. 21:29upper confirmation point is about 680
549. 21:32yen away, and the lower is about 970
550. 21:34yen away. Furthermore, to test the
551. 21:3770,799 yen level from October 6th, we
552. 21:40would need more than a few days of
553. 21:42recovery; we would need broad
554. 21:43improvement in semiconductor stocks and
555. 21:46a solid financial base. These are
556. 21:48confirmation points based on past price
557. 21:50movements, not prophecies that the
558. 21:52stock price will necessarily reverse
559. 21:53there. For individual stocks, we gauge
560. 21:56reactions in order of proximity to
561. 21:58their earnings reports. For ASML's
562. 22:00orders, it's semiconductor
563. 22:01manufacturing equipment. For TSMC, it's
564. 22:04equipment and testing. For Anthropic,
565. 22:07it's AI semiconductors and data centers
566. 22:09, while CPI goes beyond volume to
567. 22:11affect interest rates. And current
568. 22:15stock prices already partially reflect
569. 22:17both good and bad news. TSMC's strong
570. 22:20quarterly revenue has already been
571. 22:22announced. ASML's capital investment
572. 22:25was raised back in July. Anthropic's
573. 22:29briefing was also reported as of
574. 22:31October 1st. The magnitude of the
575. 22:34reaction depends on how much new data
576. 22:36changes previous expectations. Please
577. 22:40treat the breaking news headlines, the
578. 22:42initial stock price reaction, and the
579. 22:43fund flows of the following trading day
580. 22:45as separate observations. Chapter 9:
581. 22:48Conditions under which my outlook
582. 22:50changes. I will set the outlook I
583. 22:52shared at the beginning as my baseline
584. 22:54condition. Interest rates determine the
585. 22:56high-end direction. Financial results
586. 22:57determine the price range. If tonight's
587. 23:019:30 PM CPI shows the index excluding
588. 23:03food and energy rising above the 0.2%
589. 23:06benchmark month-over-month, I believe
590. 23:08it will be difficult for the Nikkei 225
591. 23:11to close above yesterday’s high of
592. 23:1368,711 yen tomorrow, the 15th, even
593. 23:15with strong earnings. Conversely, if it
594. 23:19stays at or below 0.2%and the U.S.
595. 23:22long-term interest rate drops from
596. 23:24around 5.2%, the strong earnings are
597. 23:26likely to drive a wider price range. I
598. 23:29will also define the conditions for
599. 23:30withdrawing this outlook. If core
600. 23:34inflation exceeds expectations but the
601. 23:36Nikkei 225 still closes above 68,711
602. 23:39yen on the 15th, with more stocks
603. 23:41rising than falling, I will revise my
604. 23:43view, judging that growth expectations
605. 23:46outweighed interest rate concerns. I
606. 23:50will also organize this by how
607. 23:51positions are held. For those holding
608. 23:55semiconductor stocks in cash, watch for
609. 23:57where TSMC’s gross margin lands
610. 23:59within the 65%to 67%range at 3:00 PM
611. 24:01tomorrow, and their outlook for the
612. 24:03next quarter. For those holding on
613. 24:07margin, watch the direction of U.S.
614. 24:09long-term interest rates after
615. 24:10tonight's 9:30 PM CPI and the opening
616. 24:12price tomorrow morning. This is because
617. 24:15you cannot buy or sell cash stocks
618. 24:17during the night. For those not yet
619. 24:21holding, watch whether the closing
620. 24:23price on the 15th is above 68,711 yen
621. 24:26or below 67,580 yen, and whether there
622. 24:28were more rising or falling stocks that
623. 24:31day. As we have seen, even with the
624. 24:35same strong earnings, stock price
625. 24:36reactions can be opposite depending on
626. 24:38interest rates and expectations already
627. 24:40priced in. In a market like this, it is
628. 24:43essential to track one by one how news
629. 24:45reaches corporate profits, rather than
630. 24:47just focusing on the scale of the news.
631. 24:50I want to have materials that allow for
632. 24:52judgment based on numbers, rather than
633. 24:53being swayed solely by short-term price
634. 24:55movements. However, it is impossible to
635. 24:58cover the task of re-tracking how every
636. 25:00announcement reaches specific corporate
637. 25:02profits within the time limits of these
638. 25:04videos. On YouTube, I provide organized
639. 25:08information that is already publicly
640. 25:10available. Further analysis is provided
641. 25:13in our salon. The VIP plan delivers
642. 25:17daily commentary on the Nikkei and
643. 25:18scenario-based forecasts for the days
644. 25:20ahead. Nikkei 225 Futures, and interest
645. 25:26rates are summarized on one sheet, with
646. 25:28multiple hypotheses to verify why they
647. 25:30moved. This resource helps you track
648. 25:33changes over several days where
649. 25:35evaluations shift rapidly, like with
650. 25:37tonight's CPI and tomorrow's TSMC. The
651. 25:42IT plan covers 25 featured stocks daily
652. 25:44with a monthly report totaling
653. 25:46approximately 16,000 characters. We
654. 25:50organize them using 12 proprietary
655. 25:52criteria, covering earnings, finances,
656. 25:54business structure, and supply-demand
657. 25:56like margin debt. The companies
658. 26:00mentioned in today's video—Advantest,
659. 26:02Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, and Kioxia
660. 26:05—are also among these 25 stocks.
661. 26:08Additionally, our Growth Hypothesis
662. 26:10Tracker continuously monitors notable
663. 26:13companies like Kioxia and Fujikura. We
664. 26:17update significant changes and
665. 26:18unconfirmed points weekly based on
666. 26:20company announcements and industry news
667. 26:22. The VIP plan is 9,800 yen per month
668. 26:27and offers a 7-day free trial. The 6-
669. 26:31month plan saves you the cost of one
670. 26:32month. Samples are available, so please
671. 26:36check the link in the description or
672. 26:38the QR code on the screen for details.
673. 26:41Now, let's continue with the rest of
674. 26:43the content. Finally, here is a summary
675. 26:45of what to check in chronological order
676. 26:47. Around 2:00 PM today, focus on ASML's
677. 26:51orders and outlook in addition to sales
678. 26:54; at 9:30 PM, look at CPI core
679. 26:55inflation and US interest rate moves;
680. 26:58afterward, observe ASML's management
681. 27:00comments and the reaction of US
682. 27:02semiconductor stocks. Regarding
683. 27:06Anthropic, do not assume a start time
684. 27:08as it remains unconfirmed; instead,
685. 27:10watch for any newly released facts
686. 27:12during the briefing. For TSMC at 3:00
687. 27:14PM tomorrow, prioritize profit margins
688. 27:17over the already announced strong sales
689. 27:19, and pay close attention to the
690. 27:22details of their capital investment.
691. 27:24Then tomorrow morning, observe whether
692. 27:26Nikkei futures remain strong despite
693. 27:28rising interest rates, or if
694. 27:29semiconductor stocks are being sold
695. 27:31despite falling rates. It is in these
696. 27:34seemingly mismatched combinations that
697. 27:36the issues truly concerning investors
698. 27:37are revealed. Even after these four
699. 27:40events conclude, if you can separate
700. 27:42the announcements from the market
701. 27:43reactions to verify them, you can
702. 27:45reduce the risk of making rushed
703. 27:46decisions during the next sudden change
704. 27:48. This video is for informational
705. 27:50purposes only and does not recommend
706. 27:52buying or selling any specific stocks.
707. 27:55Please make all investment decisions at
708. 27:57your own risk.