Artificial Intelligence and Law – An Overview and History | Guest Speaker: Harry Surden — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:04all righty thank you all for coming
- 0:07Kotick speaker series
- 0:09tomorrow is our code X future law
- 0:12conference just Harry pointed out is
- 0:15sort of the coachella of legal tech
- 0:19activities at least for us
- 0:22and Harry's our opening act so Harry was
- 0:25our first fellow in code X over 10 years
- 0:29ago by now and and he went on to become
- 0:33a law professor at University of
- 0:37Colorado in Boulder he's still actively
- 0:40involved in codex as affiliated faculty
- 0:43he started many important initiatives on
- 0:47the codex has been a very actively
- 0:49involved in our work around computable
- 0:51contracts many of you will know that
- 0:52Harry wrote the seminal paper and
- 0:55computable contracts and many other
- 0:57important works in technology but he's
- 1:01here today to give a general overview on
- 1:03a ai' in law overview in a history and
- 1:06so yeah so without further ado I'll just
- 1:09turn it over to Harry again and please
- 1:11join me in welcoming Harry certain all
- 1:17right thank you so much Roland it's so
- 1:19great to be back here at codex and at
- 1:22Stanford and all the great work that you
- 1:24and the other folks at codex do and all
- 1:27the great work that happens here all
- 1:30right so thanks for that introduction in
- 1:31terms of background as Roland mentioned
- 1:33I'm a law professor at the University of
- 1:35Colorado and also affiliated faculty
- 1:37here at the codex Center at Colorado
- 1:41I teach research and write about
- 1:43intellectual property law especially
- 1:45patent law and also the subject of this
- 1:47topic artificial intelligence and law
- 1:50why the interest in law and technology
- 1:53well prior to entering law I was
- 1:54actually a software engineer for several
- 1:56years I worked as a professional
- 1:58software engineer out there on the field
- 2:02so today I'm gonna talk about artificial
- 2:05intelligence and law artificial
- 2:09intelligence of course is also known as
- 2:11AI so I'll be using that interchangeably
- 2:13at points and I'm gonna try and
- 2:16understand how artificial
- 2:18Hodgins has been applied to law in the
- 2:21past and how it is currently being
- 2:23applied to law so I'll start with an
- 2:26overview of artificial intelligence
- 2:27generally because we are at at law
- 2:28school so it's not necessarily the case
- 2:31that everyone in the audience is
- 2:32familiar with the details of artificial
- 2:35intelligence the type of questions we'll
- 2:38be looking at is what is artificial
- 2:40intelligence what are the major branches
- 2:43and approaches where do we see
- 2:46artificial intelligence today outside of
- 2:48law oh and what are some of the limits
- 2:50and then I'll talk about artificial
- 2:52intelligence within the law
- 2:54I'll do a brief overview the history the
- 2:57thinkers who have thought about applying
- 2:59artificial intelligence techniques to
- 3:02different aspects of the law and then
- 3:04we'll move to the current where do we
- 3:06see artificial intelligence in law today
- 3:08why is going on in the state of the art
- 3:11and then finally I'll raise some really
- 3:13interesting and I think current and
- 3:15pressing policy issues in artificial
- 3:17intelligence in law that are really at
- 3:19the cutting edge of what policymakers
- 3:22are talking about and will serve as some
- 3:25fuel for thinking for all of us so
- 3:28without further ado let us begin with an
- 3:32overview of artificial intelligence
- 3:33generally so let's start with a basic
- 3:36question what is artificial intelligence
- 3:39well let me say at the outset that the
- 3:42phrase artificial intelligence has no
- 3:45universally agreed-upon meaning has lots
- 3:48of different meanings and means
- 3:49different things to different people and
- 3:51I won't attempt to get into all of them
- 3:53here however I find that one useful
- 3:57definition of artificial intelligence is
- 3:59the following
- 4:00AI is using technology to solve problems
- 4:04or make automated decisions or
- 4:06predictions for tasks that when people
- 4:09do them are typically thought to require
- 4:11intelligence so for example playing
- 4:15chess translating languages driving cars
- 4:17these are all tasks that are thought to
- 4:20involve some higher order cognitive
- 4:22processes when people do them they
- 4:25involve spiritual reasoning or thinking
- 4:27or abstract conceptualization
- 4:31vision etc so if a computer can solve
- 4:35such a task employing cognitive
- 4:40processes we call it an artificial
- 4:42intelligence task and if a computer can
- 4:44solve these same tasks even if they do
- 4:46it much differently than humans do it we
- 4:48think of that as an artificial
- 4:50intelligence task and a crucial point is
- 4:52that computers do solve these tasks like
- 4:55driving or playing chess very
- 4:57differently than humans do when they
- 5:00address these tasks a computer drives a
- 5:03car using techniques that are very
- 5:05different from the way humans do it all
- 5:09right so let me just start with a caveat
- 5:11that that is not a perfect description
- 5:13of artificial intelligence or AI not
- 5:15everyone would necessarily agree with
- 5:18that but I think it's a pretty good
- 5:21working definition automating tasks that
- 5:23require intelligence when humans do them
- 5:25and it's a pretty good working
- 5:27definition because many but not all AI
- 5:30tasks do involve the automation of
- 5:34activities that involve human
- 5:37intelligence
- 5:38so in describing what AI is I find it
- 5:43useful to start out by emphasizing what
- 5:46curt a AI current technology is not and
- 5:49this is to distinguish current a I
- 5:52technology from what many people think
- 5:55current AI technology is so when many
- 5:59lay people hear the term artificial
- 6:01intelligence they imagined that today's
- 6:05AI involves sneaking machines machines
- 6:08that think like people and this is a
- 6:10view of AI that sometimes called strong
- 6:13AI so let me emphasize this is the view
- 6:16of AI from the movies and from the books
- 6:18and TV of fully conversational computers
- 6:23or robots so if a computer had strong AI
- 6:27which they do not such a computer would
- 6:30it be able to think or talk at a level
- 6:32that would meet or surpass human beings
- 6:34so such an AI might be able to discuss
- 6:37abstract philosophy or engage in
- 6:40conversation and arbitrary topics let me
- 6:43just emphasize that strong AI is
- 6:45sigh totally not what we have today
- 6:47today's most advanced AI algorithms
- 6:50cannot think they cannot replicate human
- 6:53higher order cognitive skills such as
- 6:55abstract reasoning arbitrary
- 6:56conversations a typical two-year-old
- 6:58human has more advanced cognitive
- 7:00ability than the most advanced AI today
- 7:03so so why do I bring this up is because
- 7:06companies often advertise their AI as
- 7:09cognitive computing things of that made
- 7:12nature which lead people who are not in
- 7:15the field to think of AI is involving
- 7:18Thinking Machines but that is not
- 7:21accurate at all or sometimes you see AI
- 7:25startups talking about super intelligent
- 7:27robot assistants all that is just
- 7:31exaggeration and that's going to be a
- 7:34major theme of my talk so you'll also
- 7:38see on the news pundits are often
- 7:40worried speculating about super
- 7:42intelligent AI is that will you know in
- 7:45in the world super intelligent AI super
- 7:49computers so I spend a lot of time
- 7:51looking at the state-of-the-art in AI
- 7:53and in my opinion in looking at the
- 7:55evidence of the state of AI research
- 7:57there's no evidence that we're anywhere
- 8:00close to anything like strong AI or
- 8:02thinking computers anytime soon that's
- 8:04just my opinion but the point is that
- 8:07the term artificial intelligence at
- 8:09least as it is today is a bit of a
- 8:12misnomer given the state of today's
- 8:14intelligence what we call AI today is
- 8:16definitely not human level intelligence
- 8:18and it doesn't look anything like you
- 8:21would expect given the discussion in the
- 8:23media or the way the companies talk
- 8:26about it so we've talked about what a AI
- 8:29is not so what is AI well as I wish
- 8:33shortly describe in more detail what
- 8:35much of AI is today is what is called
- 8:39pattern based artificial intelligence so
- 8:41this involves the use of algorithms to
- 8:44search large amounts of data for
- 8:46patterns in that can be harnessed in
- 8:51useful ways and as we'll see this is
- 8:53goes under the formal name of machine
- 8:55learning now I don't want to
- 8:58understate today's pattern-based and
- 9:01machine learning
- 9:01AI technology it is an incredibly
- 9:04powerful tool in its particular context
- 9:07where it's useful so it has been used to
- 9:09automate things ranging from driving
- 9:12cars to language translation so in
- 9:15limited domains current AI technology
- 9:17can do amazing things it's just not
- 9:20unlimited what it can do it does not
- 9:23involve computers that can think or that
- 9:26can engage in human level abstract
- 9:28reasoning or cognition but rather it's
- 9:30really excellent pattern and useful
- 9:32pattern magic is also we will see as a
- 9:34lesser extent AI also involves knowledge
- 9:37representation and rules and deductive
- 9:40reasoning so why am I talking about this
- 9:43because a really important theme of my
- 9:45talk is we have to be realistic about AI
- 9:47we have to really understand what AI can
- 9:50and can't do what it's good at but it's
- 9:52bad at to allow us to have intelligent
- 9:56policy conversations because there are
- 9:58things that it can do and it can do
- 10:00quite well but we there are also things
- 10:03that it's very limited at so it's very
- 10:06important first of all to demystify
- 10:09artificial intelligence technology to
- 10:11understand what it really is in order to
- 10:14have sensible policy and law discussions
- 10:16and more to the point I think that
- 10:19rigorous analysis requires us all to
- 10:22resist speculation about the future of
- 10:26AI we really none of us myself included
- 10:28know where AI is going beyond in maybe
- 10:32the three to five year time frame so I
- 10:34would invite skepticism from all of you
- 10:37when you hear pundits out there in the
- 10:39world confidently predicting the future
- 10:43of AI and recommending law or policy
- 10:46choices on that basis because I think
- 10:47none of us know with any degree of
- 10:50certainty all right so let's with that
- 10:56high level view of AI let's dig a little
- 10:58deeper into the details of AI so I think
- 11:03there are a few useful ways of
- 11:05understanding artificial intelligence
- 11:07and one of the most helpful ways is to
- 11:10understand the major
- 11:11approaches that have been used
- 11:13historically to implement artificial
- 11:16intelligence and I think we can think of
- 11:19AI is really a set or a suite of
- 11:22different computer techniques and
- 11:25mathematics techniques that have been
- 11:28used to solve various AI problems so I
- 11:31like to think of it as a set of tools in
- 11:33a toolbox that can be picked out and
- 11:36adapted to various problems so AI is not
- 11:39one thing but it's more like a suite of
- 11:42things that have a family resemblance to
- 11:43one another but with that in mind let's
- 11:46talk about I think we can roughly divide
- 11:49a I approaches into two large approaches
- 11:53and this will be very approximate the
- 11:56first approach
- 11:58let me call computer logic or rules
- 12:01based systems and the second approach
- 12:03we'll talk about is machine learning so
- 12:08let's talk a little bit about logic
- 12:10rules and knowledge representation based
- 12:12AI which is the one approach so rules
- 12:18and knowledge based systems are part of
- 12:19a larger category of artificial
- 12:21intelligence of process sometimes known
- 12:23as knowledge representation and the goal
- 12:26of knowledge representation is to model
- 12:28real world processes or systems in ways
- 12:32that informs that a computer can use in
- 12:35process so often the logic and rules
- 12:39based method in knowledge representation
- 12:42involves a top-down approach and I'll
- 12:45explain what that means in a second but
- 12:46basically it means that you have
- 12:48programmers or groups of engineers
- 12:50observe some real-world tasks often
- 12:54involving experts which has certain
- 12:57real-world constraints and rules and
- 12:59then they attempt to model that
- 13:00real-world process in computer form in
- 13:03terms of computer rules and
- 13:05relationships so a really good example
- 13:07of this actually comes from law which is
- 13:09TurboTax so many of its tax season now
- 13:13so many of you are perhaps using some
- 13:15tax software like turbo tax for tax
- 13:19assistance and the turbo tax is actually
- 13:22a really good example of a knowledge
- 13:24representation
- 13:25based version of artificial intelligence
- 13:28so the company that created TurboTax
- 13:33when they're trying to create that
- 13:37software what they're trying to do is
- 13:38model something out there in the world
- 13:40and that something out there in the
- 13:42world is law it's the personal income
- 13:44tax code a set of real world constraints
- 13:47out there on people's legal liabilities
- 13:51and duties so what they're trying to do
- 13:54is model the personal income tax code in
- 13:57a computer in a way that faithfully
- 14:00represents the logic and meaning of the
- 14:03laws out there in the world so in that
- 14:06case the programmers from Intuit the
- 14:08company that makes TurboTax
- 14:10in consultation with lawyers engineers
- 14:13accountants and other will examine the
- 14:16personal income tax code try and
- 14:18understand it and see it as a set of
- 14:21rules legal rules out there in the world
- 14:23and attempt to translate the logic and
- 14:26meaning of those legal provisions into a
- 14:28set of comparable computer rules that
- 14:31the computer can follow so so say for
- 14:36instance there's a tax law out there
- 14:38that says if you make above ninety one
- 14:41thousand dollars your marginal tax rate
- 14:43is twenty eight percent we can all read
- 14:46that as attorneys and understand what
- 14:48that means you can also take the logic
- 14:51behind that and create a computer role
- 14:53that implements that logic which looks
- 14:56at what your income is and applies the
- 14:59correct marginal tax rate on that amount
- 15:02all right so that's just an example of
- 15:05taking a law out there in the world and
- 15:08modeling it as a legal rule faithfully
- 15:11representing the logic um so what's the
- 15:14point why is that useful well I think
- 15:16what's really interesting is that once
- 15:18you have laws represented in computer
- 15:21processable form you can do all sorts of
- 15:23interesting things with it you can
- 15:25engage in computer deductive reasoning
- 15:29that is basically difficult or
- 15:31impossible for humans to do on their own
- 15:33so computers can figure out things by
- 15:36processing rules
- 15:38in very complex chains that humans can't
- 15:41figure out and there's sometimes
- 15:43non-obvious conclusions in there so for
- 15:46example say you're on a business trip
- 15:49and you're recording all your tax
- 15:52expenses right there is a certain level
- 15:56of rules about what you can deduct or
- 15:59not for your business expenses a human
- 16:02can determine these rules but not
- 16:04without a lot of laborious calculation
- 16:07and reading but once you represent the
- 16:10laws in computational form it's kind of
- 16:13trivial for a computer to understand
- 16:15that an expense has been marked as a
- 16:17business expense and then apply the
- 16:19correct laws to that to correctly assume
- 16:22your tax liability so what's interesting
- 16:27about this is that this is basically a
- 16:29model of the personal income tax code as
- 16:32determined by into it but it's such a
- 16:33good model that over sixty million
- 16:35people in the United States use this or
- 16:38something like this and the IRS
- 16:40basically defers to the computations
- 16:43that have been created by this expert
- 16:46system so this is an example of what is
- 16:49known as an expert system where you've
- 16:52modeled you've taken some of the
- 16:54knowledge of experts like lawyers and
- 16:56certified public accountants out there
- 16:59in the world attempted to replicate it
- 17:01computationally and then you can use
- 17:03that knowledge to produce useful
- 17:04real-world results such as tax liability
- 17:09so as we will see a lot of the early
- 17:12history of artificial intelligence
- 17:14involved knowledge representation and
- 17:17also in law creating expert systems in
- 17:20medicine law and other domains where
- 17:23expert knowledge could be codified and
- 17:26usefully represented computationally
- 17:30okay so that was the knowledge base and
- 17:34rules base approach let me talk about a
- 17:36very different approach to AI known as
- 17:39machine learning so in the last twenty
- 17:43years or so a relatively new suite of AI
- 17:47techniques called machine learning began
- 17:49to become really popular and
- 17:51well it is what I believe really caused
- 17:53artificial intelligence to take off in
- 17:56the way that we see it today
- 17:58so at a very high level machine learning
- 18:03involves the use of algorithms that
- 18:05examine large amounts of data detect
- 18:07patterns in those data and then you can
- 18:09often harness these patterns to do many
- 18:12useful things machine learning is
- 18:15sometimes abbreviated ml so I'll be
- 18:18discussing that using that term
- 18:20interchangeably but here are some
- 18:22examples of machine learning out there
- 18:23in the world that you're probably all
- 18:25familiar with when a car drives itself
- 18:29some or most of the aspects of that
- 18:31involve machine learning I'll explain
- 18:34that more in a minute when Netflix or
- 18:37Amazon suggests a movie or a product
- 18:40that you might like based upon your past
- 18:42hurt purchases that involves machine
- 18:44learning when your email as we shall see
- 18:46tells you that an incoming email from
- 18:49Nigeria is likely spam that is also an
- 18:53example of machine learning it's been
- 18:55used in many different things you can
- 18:57find non-obvious relationships in data
- 19:00such as the risk between your credit
- 19:03score your FICO credit score and your
- 19:05risk of getting in an accident the
- 19:06correlation is very high you can spot
- 19:09fraud credit card fraud automatically or
- 19:12spot tumors and x-rays machine learning
- 19:14is all over the place and it's fair to
- 19:17say that machine learning is responsible
- 19:20for most of the AI headlines that you
- 19:22hear about in the news today so there I
- 19:25think they're rival of machine learning
- 19:26has made artificial intelligence what it
- 19:29is today so it gets most of the
- 19:31attention um so again it's helpful not
- 19:34to think of machine learning as a thing
- 19:37but rather a suite of different
- 19:39approaches that also share some family
- 19:42resemblances to know one another we can
- 19:45think of that as a toolbox of machine
- 19:47learning techniques so you might hear
- 19:51some of these different techniques out
- 19:52there in the world like neural networks
- 19:54or deep learning neural networks or
- 19:56logistic regression these are all
- 19:58different techniques that roughly share
- 20:00some same characteristics so let's talk
- 20:04a little
- 20:05what these characteristics are that make
- 20:08something considered a machine learning
- 20:10algorithm the first thing to understand
- 20:14is that machine learning algorithms are
- 20:15intentionally designed to learn and will
- 20:19see that I put that in quotes for
- 20:21reasons I will explain but roughly
- 20:24they're learning because these
- 20:25algorithms are designed to be able to
- 20:27improve their our performance over time
- 20:29on some tasks often by showing it good
- 20:33and bad examples of what you want it to
- 20:36do so I put the term learning in quotes
- 20:39because learning is really a metaphor
- 20:41for human learning it does not mean that
- 20:44it is actually learning in the way that
- 20:46humans learn that's a common mistress
- 20:49misconception it doesn't mean that it's
- 20:51artificially replicating the higher
- 20:54order cognitive processes that are
- 20:56thought to me involved in human learning
- 20:59rather we can think of it learning is in
- 21:02a functional sense so what do I mean by
- 21:06that well we say that a human is
- 21:08functionally learning when he or she is
- 21:11able to get better over time on some
- 21:13task through experience by that same
- 21:16token if we see a artificial
- 21:19intelligence machine learning algorithm
- 21:21being able to improve its performance
- 21:24over time on some tasks like driving or
- 21:27credit card fraud detection with more
- 21:30experience we can say that's kind of a
- 21:32functional metaphor for learning so in
- 21:34that sense we could think of it as
- 21:36learning but it's not human level
- 21:39learning the second point about machine
- 21:42learning is that it involves pattern
- 21:44detection so at a very basic level much
- 21:47of machine learning can be thought of as
- 21:49very sophisticated pattern detection
- 21:51systems designed to detect non-obvious
- 21:54patterns or correlations in large
- 21:56amounts of data and then we try and
- 21:59generalize these patterns to use them in
- 22:01other related contexts to make useful
- 22:05decisions so these patterns are encoded
- 22:08in a computer model in some ways and
- 22:10we'll talk about sometimes the how
- 22:13they're encoded is not very
- 22:14interpretable to people and other times
- 22:17it is
- 22:18but so what do I mean for patterns well
- 22:22let's just say that Netflix is trying to
- 22:24figure out what movie you're gonna like
- 22:27it's gonna look through all of its data
- 22:29and try and find people who are like you
- 22:32according to some machine learning
- 22:35measure of likeness maybe the past
- 22:38movies that you liked or maybe some
- 22:39other demographic data and what's
- 22:42interesting is the patterns are all
- 22:44there in the data already is just the
- 22:47machine learning algorithm that is the
- 22:49ability to pull it out and show it to
- 22:52you so almost always the data is the
- 22:56patterns that you want are in there it's
- 22:58the the art and science of machine
- 23:00learning to pull out those patterns in
- 23:02useful ways another point about machine
- 23:05learning is that they require data often
- 23:08large amounts of data to detect the
- 23:10patterns that can be used to automate
- 23:12decisions so the ability to have machine
- 23:15learning goes part and parcel with the
- 23:17availability of relevant data we're
- 23:19gonna see in law that's kind of a
- 23:21problem because not a lot of legal data
- 23:23is available in highly processable form
- 23:27in this day much of it is behind
- 23:29paywalls or non easily processable
- 23:33structures so that's something to think
- 23:36about and then finally I won't dwell on
- 23:38this but I think it's an interesting
- 23:40point machine learning often is thought
- 23:43of as software they can program itself I
- 23:46think it's a little overstating the
- 23:48point but I think there is an
- 23:49interesting idea in there so machine
- 23:52learning programming is contrasted often
- 23:56with the top-down structured programming
- 23:58that you typically see software done so
- 24:02if you're creating a piece of software
- 24:03like Microsoft Word you get a bunch of
- 24:05programmers in a room and they write a
- 24:08bunch of software code that give the
- 24:10software different capabilities in a
- 24:13very top-down
- 24:14structured approach and the computer
- 24:17ultimately Falls these instructions and
- 24:19these instructions create a web browser
- 24:21or a word processor depending on what
- 24:24instructions
- 24:25by contrast machine learning is a very
- 24:27different approach
- 24:28you basically often will just really
- 24:32the algorithm on some data and then give
- 24:34it a bunch of examples of good behavior
- 24:36and bad behavior and the Machine kind of
- 24:39figures out on its own what activities
- 24:43lead to good behavior and what leads to
- 24:46bad behavior so for example if you were
- 24:48programming a car by the traditional
- 24:51top-down approach a self-driving car
- 24:53programmers might have a bunch of rules
- 24:55whenever you approach a stop sign you
- 24:57stop whenever you know you're at a green
- 25:00light you go etc etc in a lot of cases
- 25:04in self-driving cars you can program the
- 25:07cell functionality but by machine
- 25:09learning the machine itself figures out
- 25:11example by looking at examples of good
- 25:14behavior and bad behavior it figures out
- 25:16how to drive or you might give it a
- 25:19bunch of examples of pedestrians and
- 25:21cars and without telling it the
- 25:24particular characteristics of what makes
- 25:26a pedestrian a pedestrian and a car a
- 25:28car it can figure out on its own and be
- 25:32able to tell the difference between the
- 25:34two so in a way it's programming itself
- 25:36to determine the distinction between
- 25:38pedestrians and cars as it's driving
- 25:40down the road so that's just a good
- 25:44example so that is one of the
- 25:46characteristics of machine learning it's
- 25:48much less top-down rules based
- 25:50programming but more bottom-up
- 25:52programming by often by giving examples
- 25:57I'm gonna just give you a quick example
- 25:58of machine learning and then we will
- 26:01move on to a I as it is in law but a
- 26:06really common example that people give
- 26:08because I think it's just very
- 26:09understandable is email spam filters so
- 26:12you we all know that we're out there in
- 26:15the world looking at our email and when
- 26:17email comes in you most software
- 26:20programs have the option for you to mark
- 26:22it as spam
- 26:24so how it does that tell your email
- 26:27program that a future piece of email is
- 26:31likely to be spam or not well basically
- 26:35they're often using a machine learning
- 26:37algorithm that's designed to detect
- 26:40telltale patterns of spam based upon
- 26:42what you've given it so what every time
- 26:44you mark something is
- 26:46you're telling the machine learning
- 26:47algorithm hey analyze this and look for
- 26:50what characteristics this email has that
- 26:54makes it spam and then every time you
- 26:57don't mark something as spam you're
- 26:59telling it hey look for patterns here
- 27:02that make it tell me that it this is not
- 27:06spam so that's an example of training
- 27:09and algorithm your training it by giving
- 27:12it known examples of spam or not spam so
- 27:16let's imagine for example that after 100
- 27:19spam emails you're a machine learning
- 27:21algorithm determines that the phrase or
- 27:24in cash is statistically really likely
- 27:28to be associated with spam right why
- 27:30because it's detected earn cash in know
- 27:36wanted emails and it detected or in cash
- 27:40in a huge amount of spam emails so the
- 27:42next email that comes in that has earned
- 27:45cash it's gonna think it's statistically
- 27:47at the high likelihood of being spam
- 27:50right so there's a couple interesting
- 27:52points in there first of all that's an
- 27:55example of a machine learning algorithm
- 27:57detecting a pattern in law you can also
- 28:01it's an example of the machine learning
- 28:02algorithm learning right it's learning
- 28:05that earn cash is associated with spam
- 28:08and you can use that pattern to make
- 28:11other predictions another interesting
- 28:16point about that is that the
- 28:17identification improves over time so it
- 28:20might learn another pattern that that
- 28:24words that have emails that have free in
- 28:29them are statistically more likely to be
- 28:31spam or emails from the country Belarus
- 28:34or Nigeria are much more likely to be
- 28:37spam so it's able to learn over time
- 28:39improve its ability to distinguish spam
- 28:42and email spam and wanted email so this
- 28:48is the idea I want to get to is if
- 28:51machine learning does not have an AI in
- 28:55general doesn't have the cognitive
- 28:56abilities of humans how is it
- 28:59that were able to have AI making
- 29:03intelligent decisions and I think the
- 29:04answer is that we use proxies or
- 29:06stand-ins so basically whenever you find
- 29:09a pattern out there in the world that
- 29:13can be a useful proxy or stand in the
- 29:15computer doesn't actually have to
- 29:17understand the deep conceptual layer in
- 29:19order to make an intelligent decision
- 29:21for say what a spam or what is not spam
- 29:24right so for instance when an email
- 29:26software is looking at an email to
- 29:30determine whether it's spam it doesn't
- 29:31know what cache is or free is doesn't
- 29:34know where the meaning of that doesn't
- 29:35have to know the meaning of that why
- 29:37because it's found a useful proxy a
- 29:39statistical correlation between email
- 29:43and the presence of those words and spam
- 29:45so this is what I call intelligent
- 29:47results without intelligence and that's
- 29:49what we see largely in the state of AI
- 29:53today where we're using patterns and
- 29:56proxies that can be harnessed to make
- 29:58useful automated decisions without
- 30:00actually having underlying higher-order
- 30:03human intelligence another example of
- 30:07this is Google's statistical machine
- 30:09translation which is pretty good these
- 30:12days if you've used it that also uses
- 30:15patterns or proxies to translate so when
- 30:18so often Google famously figured out
- 30:22that you could use UN corpuses so the
- 30:25united nation has for 50 years
- 30:28translated many documents into the six
- 30:32official language of the United Nations
- 30:34using high quality translators so you
- 30:36have these identical documents in
- 30:38multiple languages saying the same exact
- 30:41thing and you have hundreds of thousands
- 30:43or maybe millions of these so Google
- 30:45figured out hey let us release a machine
- 30:48learning algorithm on this and maybe
- 30:51it'll start figuring out correlations
- 30:53that you know oficina de correo means
- 30:56post office in spanish without us
- 30:58actually having to tell it that and
- 31:00that's basically what what has happened
- 31:04and we have these really pretty robust
- 31:08translations but importantly the
- 31:10computer doesn't understand what
- 31:12talking about it doesn't know what a
- 31:13post-office is it doesn't have to know
- 31:15what a post-office is it just has to
- 31:17know that certain words appear together
- 31:20with statistically high frequency all
- 31:25right so that's AI today as I see it
- 31:29summary of two major approaches you have
- 31:33the logic and rules based knowledge
- 31:35representation approach which leads to
- 31:37expert systems and embedded law and
- 31:39computational law like TurboTax and you
- 31:42also have the machine learning or
- 31:43pattern based approach one final point
- 31:46is I want to say that you don't have to
- 31:48choose one or the other many successful
- 31:50systems use both of these approaches so
- 31:53self-driving cars use a mix of rules
- 31:56based systems and machine learning
- 31:59systems very effectively so that's one
- 32:03point those are hybrid systems I don't
- 32:06want to imply that one or the other
- 32:07another point about hybrids I want to
- 32:10point out is that we often have this
- 32:12idea that artificial intelligent systems
- 32:15are replacing humans but that's not
- 32:17necessarily the case rather it's often
- 32:20better to think about it as enhancing
- 32:23humans it's often providing humans with
- 32:26the ability to make better decisions so
- 32:30computer chess can be the best human
- 32:34computer player in the world but often
- 32:36when humans you combine a computer chess
- 32:40program with a human chess player they
- 32:42can beat many of the best computer chess
- 32:44programs because the humans chess
- 32:46playing ability is being enhanced by the
- 32:49computer another important point is that
- 32:52we often talk about artificial
- 32:54intelligence as being fully autonomous
- 32:57that's the image which means that the
- 33:00system is on its own making the most
- 33:03important decisions about its own
- 33:04activities like a self-driving car right
- 33:08so a fully autonomous system is out
- 33:10there the system's making its own
- 33:11decisions the reality is many important
- 33:14AI systems still have humans in the loop
- 33:16which is the idea that the computer will
- 33:20often ask for help from a live human to
- 33:24make a judgment decision
- 33:26or an abstract conceptualization about
- 33:28an area where the computer just is not
- 33:30able to perform so a good example is the
- 33:33state of the art in self-driving cars
- 33:35these days is to have a call center
- 33:37where a computer self-driving car gets
- 33:39stuck it calls a human in a room and
- 33:43then a human basically takes over the
- 33:44car and steers the self-driving car out
- 33:47of trouble and then gives it back to the
- 33:49self-driving car and that's just a very
- 33:51common conceptualization just a point
- 33:54you see that almost in many AI systems
- 33:56it's not fully autonomous but it still
- 33:58involves a lot of human judgment all
- 34:03right
- 34:03so let's talk a little bit about AI and
- 34:08law so I spent a lot of time talking
- 34:10about artificial intelligence generally
- 34:12which i think is necessary before we can
- 34:14understand a I applied to law you just
- 34:18briefly talk about the history of AI and
- 34:21law alright so we can think of AI and
- 34:24law as going as far back as live myths
- 34:28perhaps even further so live myths was
- 34:31one of course one of the co-inventors of
- 34:34calculus of really famous mathematician
- 34:36he was also trained as a lawyer and as
- 34:39far back as the 17th century
- 34:41Leibniz expressed the idea that perhaps
- 34:43we could use math or algorithms to make
- 34:47law more predictable more manageable
- 34:50more useful and that's really the heart
- 34:53of AI in law the heart of the law is
- 34:56using computers and mathematical
- 34:58formalisms
- 34:59to make law more understandable more
- 35:00accessible more useful more predictable
- 35:03more manageable so he was kind of on to
- 35:06something there and I've got a fun aside
- 35:08here for the law students here live Nets
- 35:12was a lawyer who contributed major
- 35:14things to math so it turns out many
- 35:17lawyers have made important mathematical
- 35:19contributions out there so for instance
- 35:23the mathematical topic of linear algebra
- 35:25which is basically the mathematical
- 35:28backbone of most of machine learning
- 35:30these days was partially founded by
- 35:33lawyers two of the founding fathers of
- 35:36linear algebra arthur cayley and james
- 35:39Sylvester
- 35:39we're both lawyers and if you look in
- 35:41the history of mathematics many of the
- 35:44most famous mathematicians were actually
- 35:46lawyers as well like live Nets Kaylee
- 35:50and Sylvester so there actually is a
- 35:52long tradition of lawyers influencing
- 35:54math in this interconnectivity between
- 35:56law and technology so I'd say the real
- 36:01modern era of AI law happened right
- 36:04before the dawn of computing it might go
- 36:06all the way back to Lila Berringer who
- 36:09came up with this idea of Jura metrics
- 36:11which is basically saying hey we should
- 36:13use more statistics and technical
- 36:19analysis to understand the law that was
- 36:21back in the 1940s and then really the
- 36:25heart of AI in law happened from the 60s
- 36:28to the 80s there are a lot of early
- 36:30pioneers here I won't name them all but
- 36:32some of them are listed up there and I
- 36:35call that the error of knowledge
- 36:37representation because that was really
- 36:39what was going on in AI at the time it
- 36:42was a rules-based and knowledge
- 36:44representation based system and many of
- 36:47these early computer scientists started
- 36:50applying these ideas of representing
- 36:52roles to law trying and in this era you
- 36:58saw a lot of attempts to model legal
- 37:00argument formally in ways that computers
- 37:03can understand they attempted to model
- 37:05legislation or regulation ways that
- 37:08computers can understand there were
- 37:10early to text extraction and some of
- 37:13these people might even be here in the
- 37:16audience because there was a lot of
- 37:17pioneering work done at Stanford and I
- 37:21apologize if you're a pioneer and you're
- 37:22not up there there are many more people
- 37:25out there important idea important
- 37:29conferences that came out of the 80s
- 37:31where iCal and Jurek's which still
- 37:32exists to this day which are conferences
- 37:35dedicated to AI and law most of the AI
- 37:38in law research however occurred in
- 37:40Europe and not in the United States
- 37:42Italy the Netherlands England and
- 37:44Germany really their hot beds and even
- 37:46to this day remain important centers so
- 37:50that's the error of knowledge
- 37:52representation
- 37:53I'd say the next era is kind of mm to
- 37:56the president which is the era of legal
- 37:58tech and machine learning and that's
- 37:59where we see ourselves now a founding
- 38:02moment and that is the founding of
- 38:04Stanford codex by roland michael generis
- 38:07Josh Walker and all the Codex fellows
- 38:10who came in back in 2006 before AI was
- 38:14really the rage legal tech startups
- 38:18we've seen a lot of legal tech startups
- 38:20in the last 12 years that have come out
- 38:22some out of Kodak's some in four other
- 38:27venues a good example of a legal tech
- 38:30startup that came out of Stanford is Lex
- 38:32machina which was known as the Stanford
- 38:35intellectual property litigation
- 38:36clearing galas back in the day which I
- 38:38was involved in when I was a fellow here
- 38:41spun off and is now a company so that's
- 38:46kind of where we are in the history of
- 38:48AI and law so let's talk about AI in law
- 38:52today where are we seeing artificial
- 38:55intelligence being used actually being
- 38:57used as a lot of hype but it actually is
- 38:59being used in law today I'd like to
- 39:03think about there being three categories
- 39:05of AI and while use there are the
- 39:07administrators of law these are the
- 39:10people who create and apply the law so
- 39:13judges legislators government officials
- 39:15regulators how they use AI we have the
- 39:18practitioners of law these are attorneys
- 39:20and other people who navigate the legal
- 39:22system and then we have the users in law
- 39:24people like you and me businesses out
- 39:27there who are bound by the law and have
- 39:30to comply with it and are looking for
- 39:32help to deal with the law so let's talk
- 39:35about each of these in term so the first
- 39:41case is AI used by administrators of law
- 39:43so these are people create and apply the
- 39:45law and often we're thinking here of
- 39:48legislators or judges so one important
- 39:51area we're seeing AI quite a bit comes
- 39:53in the criminal sentencing area where
- 39:56criminal defendants I'll talk about this
- 39:58more in the in the couple minutes but
- 40:00you're seeing judges starting to rely on
- 40:04sentencing and bail reports
- 40:06and these bail reports have been
- 40:08produced by a computer machine primarily
- 40:10machine learning algorithms that give
- 40:12risk of reoffending and the judges are
- 40:15not bound by these reports but often
- 40:16they follow them and this is in bail and
- 40:19sentencing another example we see this
- 40:22is in government benefits decisions out
- 40:24there legal officials or using this to
- 40:28make decisions about certain whether
- 40:29somebody qualifies to get a certain
- 40:31benefit or not there's certain AI
- 40:33components the policing we're starting
- 40:35to see this quite a bit we're starting
- 40:39to see predictive policing for likely
- 40:42crime areas so a lot of police systems
- 40:48use AI to try and predict areas where
- 40:50they should devote more resources based
- 40:53upon past climb patterns facial
- 40:55recognition for suspects is happening
- 40:57really quickly a lot of police areas are
- 41:00using AI to try and detect suspects in
- 41:03crowds or from group photographs so that
- 41:07there's some I'll talk about this more
- 41:09in the Q&A another really important area
- 41:12and part of the legal tech revolution is
- 41:15the use of AI by Google practitioners
- 41:18primarily attorneys by others in the law
- 41:20the most famous example is youth the use
- 41:23of machine learning in technology
- 41:26assisted review document review used to
- 41:28be the bane of first and second-year
- 41:31associates law sources who would sit in
- 41:34a dark room physically looking through
- 41:36documents and being built out by their
- 41:38partners at $400 an hour to basically do
- 41:42pattern detection at this point we've
- 41:46started to use machine learning
- 41:47algorithms which are better and faster
- 41:50at detecting documents that are likely
- 41:54to be relevant or privileged to
- 41:56litigation however humans are still in
- 41:59the loop quite a lot so this is kind of
- 42:01a common misperception it's not that
- 42:03we're taking lawyers out of the job
- 42:04we're just kind of shrinking the
- 42:06haystack of irrelevant documents and we
- 42:09bring in lawyers to look at the
- 42:11documents that are most likely to be
- 42:13relevant to the proceedings at hand
- 42:16I'll go just go over these quickly but
- 42:18we're seeing AI and legal analytics
- 42:20out there trying to predict how a judge
- 42:23might rule on a particular case or how a
- 42:25venue might treat a favorable case based
- 42:28upon past outcomes case outcome
- 42:30prediction you there a lot of hedge
- 42:34funds or not a lot but some hedge funds
- 42:36are starting to use various algorithms
- 42:38to try and bet on litigation finance by
- 42:43using various predictive algorithms a
- 42:45big area that we see or legal document
- 42:48assembly automated patent writings
- 42:51automated contract assembly again these
- 42:53often do a first cut of a document
- 42:56putting together and then a lawyer will
- 42:58put it together
- 42:59automated document analysis and
- 43:02diligence so you might sick your machine
- 43:04learning algorithm out there in the
- 43:06world or if you have a merger for
- 43:09example and you're trying to locate
- 43:11relevant contracts instead of having
- 43:13first-year associate look through ten
- 43:16thousand documents you might unleash
- 43:18your machine learning algorithm to try
- 43:20and find documents that are possibly
- 43:23relevant to the merger natural language
- 43:26processes there's a bunch of other
- 43:29they're computable contracts starting to
- 43:30happen out of codex legal research is
- 43:35starting to have some basic AI law firm
- 43:38management and case docketing so a lot
- 43:42of activities going on in the lawyers
- 43:45area and then finally the poor people
- 43:48like us who have to go out there in the
- 43:51world and comply with all these laws
- 43:53that rule us on a daily basis there we
- 43:56can divide this up into two areas
- 43:58businesses and ordinary people
- 44:01businesses are starting to make a lot of
- 44:03use of machine learning and rules based
- 44:07system into automated compliance
- 44:08particularly the gdpr we can thank is
- 44:12the full employment act for privacy
- 44:14lawyers but also for legal tech startups
- 44:17it's created a lot of compliance issues
- 44:20and it's created a lot of interest in
- 44:23using machine learning and rules engines
- 44:26for complying there's a lot of expert
- 44:28systems companies are using kind of you
- 44:32know compliance
- 44:34expert systems for ordinary people there
- 44:38are these expert systems like TurboTax
- 44:40that we looked at legal chatbots
- 44:42like do not pay you may have seen that's
- 44:45sort of a common thing where they help
- 44:46to these chat BOTS
- 44:48and self-help systems try and help you
- 44:51navigate the law and people are starting
- 44:53to use automated document assembly
- 44:55that's you know will maker and things
- 44:58like that that help people put together
- 45:00their own personal documents okay so
- 45:06limits and artificial intelligence I
- 45:08want to return to this because I think
- 45:10is a really important point we don't
- 45:12want to exaggerate what AI can do
- 45:16because I think that serves nobody here
- 45:19except for maybe the legal tech startups
- 45:20there are still many things beyond the
- 45:24realms of current AI technology so first
- 45:27of all a I still requires data right so
- 45:32if it's an expert system it requires
- 45:34expert data which is expensive to
- 45:37collect and if machine learning it
- 45:40requires some sort of data whether it's
- 45:43contracts or rules that the algorithm
- 45:45can look at there's no thinking
- 45:48Computers Computers can't engage in
- 45:51abstract reasoning and also there are a
- 45:53lot of accuracy limits so if you look at
- 45:56Google Translate it's pretty darn good
- 45:58but you wouldn't want to have Google
- 46:01Translate translate your billion-dollar
- 46:03merger agreement into French right why
- 46:05because the accuracy is not quite good
- 46:08enough you'd want an expert human
- 46:12translator doing that and then one of
- 46:14the biggest problems is sometimes the
- 46:16systems are hard to interpret
- 46:20alright so finally I just want to raise
- 46:22a couple of current policy topics with
- 46:25AI and law and they're now happy to talk
- 46:27about these in the question so these are
- 46:29what our law professors and other people
- 46:32in the policy area are really thinking
- 46:33about in AI and law so one thing that
- 46:37will be of interest to law students in
- 46:39this room is the automation of legal
- 46:43jobs and so there's this idea
- 46:47is artificial intelligence gonna Auto
- 46:50automate away most or all jobs in the
- 46:53world and also in law that same question
- 46:56is here and I'll talk about some of the
- 46:58economics research just briefly here so
- 47:02I think it's useful to separate this
- 47:04into two ways of thinking there
- 47:06short-term impacts and long-term impacts
- 47:09in the short term AI like other
- 47:12technologies whether it's automated
- 47:14forum implements or factory robots does
- 47:17displace workers in those areas so that
- 47:20is a real short-term change we're gonna
- 47:22have to deal with as a society for
- 47:25automated truck drivers and we'll see
- 47:28just some degree although a lesser
- 47:30extent in law as well but there's a
- 47:33different question is where there law
- 47:35whether technology destroys jobs
- 47:39permanently and I'll talk about that in
- 47:43a minute but the the important point is
- 47:48that most the research most economists
- 47:50have show this is that technological
- 47:51change like AI ultimately creates more
- 47:55new types of jobs than it displaces
- 47:58right so the net number of jobs
- 48:01tends to be more how that's the
- 48:03long-term view about people individual
- 48:05people tend to be displaced which is a
- 48:08real social problem that we can't ignore
- 48:11so in law there's there's a similar
- 48:13story I think certain legal tasks and
- 48:16certain types of jobs in law will be
- 48:18automated away but as I will talk about
- 48:22I think new types of legal jobs will be
- 48:24created that we just can't imagine right
- 48:26now so often there's just a failure of
- 48:28imagination on our part so what I told
- 48:32my boss students is lawyers do a mix of
- 48:36tasks from the highly abstract to the
- 48:39routine and mechanical so they do a mix
- 48:40of both and traditionally they could
- 48:42charge for both
- 48:44so today's AI technology is much more
- 48:47likely to be able to automate a task if
- 48:49there's an underlying structure or
- 48:51pattern that it can harness so I'd like
- 48:53to say in tasks where lawyers are acting
- 48:56like computers today those tasks will be
- 48:58replaced by computers tomorrow so
- 49:00of the routine mechanical work that
- 49:02lawyers are able to get away with
- 49:04charging for today is gonna be automated
- 49:07away um however that's not a lot of what
- 49:10lawyers do a lot of what lawyers do
- 49:12involve all these other things that a I
- 49:14is actually pretty bad so lawyers do
- 49:17abstract thinking problem solving
- 49:19advocacy client counseling things that
- 49:22involve human emotional intelligence
- 49:23Policy Analysis big picture strategy
- 49:26creative thinking etc etc all of these
- 49:29things are things that a I current AI
- 49:31technology is really bad at so I think
- 49:33those things are less likely to be
- 49:36automated away in the near term at least
- 49:39in the foreseeable future so that's I
- 49:44think that's an important way to think
- 49:45about it so if you're a law student I
- 49:47would think about building up your
- 49:50skills in those areas that we just
- 49:52looked at there the other point is that
- 49:57as I mentioned the creation of new legal
- 49:59jobs so when computers came along people
- 50:03used to do mathematical calculations
- 50:05right they were calculators or computers
- 50:08those jobs went away but entirely new
- 50:11categories of jobs were created so
- 50:13things like slop game computer game
- 50:16designer that didn't exist 60 years ago
- 50:18or data analysts these are entirely new
- 50:20categories of jobs that were enabled by
- 50:24new technology I think similar things
- 50:26will happen in law legal data analysts
- 50:28who knows we just have a failure we're
- 50:30good at imagining the bad we're hard
- 50:32it's hard to imagine the good so we just
- 50:34don't really know what new jobs but I'm
- 50:38pretty confident like most technologies
- 50:40there will be new categories of jobs
- 50:41created by new technology in law like AI
- 50:46this is something I'm happy to talk
- 50:48about during the QA increasingly as I
- 50:52mentioned judges are using AI or at
- 50:55least reports created by AI is a famous
- 50:58compass system you may have heard of
- 51:00that will give a defendant's risk of
- 51:04reoffending to a judge it's a 1 to 10
- 51:05score and judges aren't required to
- 51:08abide by that but often they just refer
- 51:10to it why after all if it says it's got
- 51:12a 8 out of 10 chance
- 51:14offending are you gonna be the judge who
- 51:16wants to bet on the two out of ten
- 51:18probably not
- 51:19you're probably going to defer but
- 51:21there's a lot of issues that I think are
- 51:23worth talking about
- 51:27first of all these can these reports are
- 51:29created by private companies who use
- 51:31machine learning algorithms maybe so in
- 51:34a sense we're sort of outsourcing some
- 51:36of these decisions to private companies
- 51:38often we don't know the data that went
- 51:40into it
- 51:44so is that problematic another issue is
- 51:48what if there are biases in the data
- 51:49this is a real issue so a lot of these
- 51:52risk of reoffending scores are
- 51:55calculated based upon police data so
- 51:58they record crime and characteristics of
- 52:01criminals but what if the police
- 52:02practices themselves are biased all
- 52:04right so say you have two defendants one
- 52:06who is a minority and one who's not and
- 52:09a police force systematically arrests
- 52:12the minority defendant for a similarly
- 52:16situated non majority defendant right
- 52:18there's gonna be a bias embedded in the
- 52:21data and then if that data gets recorded
- 52:24and it is used to train a machine
- 52:26learning algorithm those biases will be
- 52:28subtly embedded in the machine learning
- 52:31model and might cause us to overestimate
- 52:33the risk of reoffending of certain
- 52:36groups so that bias is another major
- 52:39concern another concern is that these
- 52:42machine learning models are often hard
- 52:43to interpret we don't know what they
- 52:46mean the kind of there are more of a
- 52:48black box and that might be an issue
- 52:54another problem out there is that these
- 52:57machine learning systems give you the
- 52:59illusion of objectivity so when a
- 53:03machine learning report tells you that
- 53:06somebody has you know eighty seven point
- 53:08three nine four percent chance of
- 53:10reoffending
- 53:11that sounds pretty precise and damning
- 53:14but in fact there's all sorts of
- 53:16uncertainties and subjectivity that go
- 53:18in this but there's research that shows
- 53:20that people tend to defer to things that
- 53:23sound mathematical and have an air of
- 53:25false precision so when government
- 53:27they're making decisions based upon this
- 53:29is this something we should be concerned
- 53:32about that's something I call the
- 53:34illusion of mechanical objectivity in
- 53:37fact all these systems have tons of
- 53:39subjective decisions that go into them
- 53:41what data to choose what data to exclude
- 53:44how far back you go
- 53:46what do you emphasize for the judge what
- 53:48do you deep prioritize how do you wait
- 53:50things vary a lot of subjectivity in a
- 53:53seemingly objective term another problem
- 53:57is AI is becoming easy to use really
- 54:00easy to use we're packaging up systems
- 54:02for government officials to use but
- 54:04these are often lay officials they don't
- 54:06really know what they're doing so if you
- 54:07give a police department a facial
- 54:10recognition system with 20 different
- 54:12parameters that can be tuned are they
- 54:15going to know how to tune that in order
- 54:16to reduce the likelihood of in correctly
- 54:21identifying minorities probably not
- 54:23they're just gonna use the off-the-shelf
- 54:26settings and that's a real problem
- 54:28because a lot of times these systems can
- 54:31only be used when they've been properly
- 54:34calibrated by people who really know how
- 54:36to use them
- 54:37moreover laypeople don't often
- 54:40understand the subjective nature of the
- 54:43design finally there are privacy issues
- 54:45but I won't go into that because I want
- 54:47to leave time for questions so
- 54:56any questions anyone in the audience you
- 55:02sir had a question before it was just a
- 55:06terminology question on one slide when
- 55:08you talked about using AI to determine
- 55:11the distribution of government benefits
- 55:14benefits is a very strong term I was
- 55:16wondering if you could explain what what
- 55:18kind of benefits that's referring to or
- 55:19give an example
- 55:20yeah certain government benefits so
- 55:24there are certain states that might
- 55:26determine whether you qualify for you
- 55:30know getting some state government
- 55:32monies for various things and then
- 55:34they'll use it used to be a human who
- 55:37would go through the criteria list and
- 55:39now it's often an algorithm which will
- 55:42do the first pass at that yeah yeah so
- 56:18you're right not necessarily in the same
- 56:19industry on net for the economy right so
- 56:23right we could lose jobs in law
- 56:25potentially but on net maybe we'll get
- 56:27other jobs out there yeah
- 57:04yeah so that is that is the argument I
- 57:07tend to be skeptical of that just
- 57:09because there have been a lot of wide
- 57:12changes technological changes in the
- 57:13past like you know electricity and
- 57:16various engines and on net they have not
- 57:19led to and people were worrying about
- 57:21this 100 years ago with the
- 57:22mechanization of Agriculture like what
- 57:24are all these farmers the the US economy
- 57:27used to be 40% farming now it's
- 57:29something like 3 or 4 percent so what
- 57:31are all these unemployed farm workers
- 57:33going to do and things happen I'm not
- 57:36saying it won't happen I just think that
- 57:38that the technological history tells us
- 57:42to be wary of concluding that jobs will
- 57:44go away broadly it might happen still
- 57:47yeah it was just a request to display
- 57:53the last slide on privacy oh yes ok yes
- 58:01could you comment a little bit more
- 58:04about the self-programming aspect of
- 58:06this for instance in the bail
- 58:07determination program my understanding
- 58:12is that as new data is fed into the to
- 58:15the system it changes the weights that
- 58:18are assigned to these things is there a
- 58:20way to track that how do you argue that
- 58:22on appeal yeah that's a great that's a
- 58:26great question so this is one of the
- 58:28high issues right now in fact I'm having
- 58:31a conference on this very point next
- 58:33month that Colorado you guys want to
- 58:35come to the University of Colorado is
- 58:37what happens when a algorithm makes a
- 58:41substantive decision about somebody's
- 58:43rights what do we have the right to know
- 58:47and how do we think about that given
- 58:49that those decisions are basically a
- 58:52bunch of mathematical weights in there
- 58:54and well learning those mathematical
- 58:56weights tell us anything and then how
- 58:59far do we have to trace it back so the
- 59:02answer is it's complicated and people
- 59:04are thinking about it but the use of
- 59:06this is moving forward quicker than the
- 59:08policy thinkers are thinking about it
- 59:10for better or for worse
- 59:12you know following up following up on
- 59:14the thread about what will the role of
- 59:17attorneys and legal providers be in the
- 59:20future in a judicial context why
- 59:23wouldn't why would we necessarily think
- 59:26that there'd be you know a model and
- 59:28algorithm and system that the court uses
- 59:30to come up with like things from
- 59:32sentencing guidelines or other parts or
- 59:35even discovery as opposed to the role of
- 59:37the lawyer in the future would be as
- 59:40part of like you know preliminary
- 59:41motions saying you know advocating I
- 59:43think we should use this algorithm and
- 59:45you know trained by this data set and
- 59:47and then you know the other counsel
- 59:49would argue for something else and then
- 59:51there'd be a ruling and so we'd be
- 59:54really quite in the middle of this and
- 59:56then also maybe avoid the the likely
- 1:00:00outcome of you know once technology gets
- 1:00:02embedded in public sector and especially
- 1:00:04judiciary it's not prone to adapt and
- 1:00:07evolve very quickly and so instead of
- 1:00:09having it be kind of clunky and
- 1:00:11out-of-date quickly and not evolve with
- 1:00:12a law maybe it could be another way also
- 1:00:15to keep it up to date but also always
- 1:00:16fair to the facts and circumstances of
- 1:00:19the case yeah that's a great point I
- 1:00:22think the only issue is that the law has
- 1:00:24not caught up with this idea yet but I
- 1:00:27think something like that is something
- 1:00:30to think about as a way forward I do
- 1:00:33have a nice abstention question the
- 1:00:36legal system that we know the human
- 1:00:38legal system a major component of it is
- 1:00:41that legal decisions emerge from an
- 1:00:44adversarial process another thing is
- 1:00:50that the humans also have a hard time
- 1:00:54explaining the actual basis of their
- 1:00:57decision largely because we actually
- 1:01:00don't even have introspective access to
- 1:01:03to the actual decision making process
- 1:01:05instead our explanation process are post
- 1:01:09facto rationalizations stories and for a
- 1:01:14neural network making a decision I
- 1:01:16suspect the the actual decision-making
- 1:01:20cannot be explained in a way that some
- 1:01:23other agent could actually under
- 1:01:25and the explanation but rather one could
- 1:01:28imagine adversarial post-facto story
- 1:01:32accounts regarding justification of the
- 1:01:36outcome of the decision yeah I think
- 1:01:38that's a really good point and I think
- 1:01:41one of the points you raised in your
- 1:01:42question too is a really good point is
- 1:01:44we don't we sometimes or holding
- 1:01:48algorithms up to a higher standard of
- 1:01:50explaining themselves when today we have
- 1:01:52human decision makers who have to
- 1:01:55provide an explanation but it might not
- 1:01:56be the true explanation or it might be a
- 1:01:59misleading explanation or they might not
- 1:02:00even know why they made the decision
- 1:02:03algorithmic decision-making gives us the
- 1:02:05ability to peer in at a very deep level
- 1:02:08in ways that we can't peer inside the
- 1:02:10human brain and get in some sense see
- 1:02:13the decision but in other sense it might
- 1:02:15not be interpretable and strategies like
- 1:02:18that may be a way to deal with some of
- 1:02:20that yes yeah so thanks for for a nice
- 1:02:24survey of the history and current state
- 1:02:28of this area I was just going to make
- 1:02:30one comment about the risk assessment
- 1:02:33algorithms there composts stuff so so
- 1:02:36it's great the risks are significance
- 1:02:38it's generated this whole literature
- 1:02:39about sort of studying the varieties of
- 1:02:46sort of bias and fairness and they sort
- 1:02:50of multiple incompatible possible models
- 1:02:53that you might want to optimize but one
- 1:02:55downside of it is it is it sort of
- 1:02:58sucked the oxygen out of the discussion
- 1:03:01of AI in support of administrative
- 1:03:05processes which which is that that
- 1:03:15there's a vast number of different
- 1:03:16governmental activities that can be
- 1:03:18improved in principle by by automation
- 1:03:22of some aspects and you know it's like
- 1:03:25the risk assessment is just barely it's
- 1:03:28only marginally AI at all it's easy as
- 1:03:30your statistical models that are based
- 1:03:32on mostly on sort of criminological
- 1:03:34theory they have an empirical basis
- 1:03:38right it's unfortunate I just I guess
- 1:03:41it's a kind of unfortunate that that's
- 1:03:43become representative sort of AI in the
- 1:03:47government when it seems like it's not
- 1:03:48representative at all other than how
- 1:03:51things can go wrong it's representative
- 1:03:53of that yeah no I think you're I think
- 1:03:54you're really right I mean one danger is
- 1:03:57that particularly academics can be
- 1:04:00become really entranced by the latest
- 1:04:03idea and this you know has a lot of
- 1:04:06interesting properties to it but they
- 1:04:09might be ignoring the more beneficial
- 1:04:12aspects of AI there might actually lead
- 1:04:15to helping criminal defendants or
- 1:04:17helping the under lawyers and you want
- 1:04:20to be wary not to suck the oxygen out of
- 1:04:23the room to throw the baby out with the
- 1:04:24bathwater yes from our online audience
- 1:04:29do you think that the world needs the
- 1:04:31data producer right for non personal
- 1:04:34data or some kind of sweet generous
- 1:04:36related right for companies who generate
- 1:04:39or labeled ML data you think such a
- 1:04:43right would hinder or incentive eight
- 1:04:46innovation wait say it again
- 1:04:49the whole question or just the first
- 1:04:52part yeah do you think that the world
- 1:04:54needs a data producer right for non
- 1:04:56personal data or some kind of sweet
- 1:04:58generous related break I tend to not be
- 1:05:02in favor of more legal rights over
- 1:05:04information there's already quite a lot
- 1:05:07of protection in terms of copyright to
- 1:05:11some extent patent I think that a legal
- 1:05:13production right would just add another
- 1:05:15layer of friction in the system so I
- 1:05:19tend to be skeptical on that basis hi
- 1:05:24you mentioned abstract thinking and
- 1:05:27something that was safe for attorneys
- 1:05:29versus AI or machines I want to know if
- 1:05:32you can elaborate on that one of the
- 1:05:33questions was prior was that machines
- 1:05:37might be able to abstract down to be
- 1:05:39able to interpret discussion or
- 1:05:42argumentation better than humans so I
- 1:05:44found that contradictory it wasn't sure
- 1:05:46oh wait so say say more about the
- 1:05:48example you found confusing basically I
- 1:05:50believe that when you're doing
- 1:05:52computation
- 1:05:52no law and you're doing abstraction that
- 1:05:55a computer could do abstraction much
- 1:05:57better than a human that's actually one
- 1:05:58of the things that computers can do
- 1:06:00better and so I was wondering I was just
- 1:06:02for you to comment on one of your slides
- 1:06:04that you were saying that that was one
- 1:06:06of the things that was safe for
- 1:06:07attorneys yeah so abstraction is one of
- 1:06:09those unfortunate words which has 20
- 1:06:11different meanings and there's the
- 1:06:14computer version of abstraction and
- 1:06:16mathematical which I agree with you
- 1:06:17which is sort of representing things at
- 1:06:20different levels what I was referring to
- 1:06:22is abstract ideas like philosophy you
- 1:06:25know a computer couldn't knowingly the
- 1:06:29way the state of AI you know have an
- 1:06:32intelligent original conversation about
- 1:06:35an abstract idea you know like the
- 1:06:37freedom of the state or something all
- 1:06:39right that's the sense I'm abstraction
- 1:06:46I'm not yeah yeah I'd love to see it
- 1:06:50yeah thank you
- 1:06:51yeah so from a different member of our
- 1:06:55remote audience is legal personality
- 1:06:58part of the answer to how we should
- 1:06:59regulate more advanced applications of
- 1:07:02AI most policymakers currently seem to
- 1:07:05be going down a regulatory route that
- 1:07:07focuses on product liability but could
- 1:07:09granting some AI systems legal
- 1:07:12personality it can to say the way the
- 1:07:14law recognizes corporations as legal
- 1:07:17persons be part of the answer uh so I
- 1:07:20tend not to think that legal personality
- 1:07:22is that useful right now given the state
- 1:07:24of AI because I think at least you know
- 1:07:27when it comes down to it corporations
- 1:07:29although they have legal personhood or
- 1:07:31ultimately people at the end of the day
- 1:07:34and I think a lot of the complex complex
- 1:07:38issues of the day have to deal with
- 1:07:40people at the end of the day and I
- 1:07:41haven't seen any really good problems
- 1:07:44that would be solved by granting
- 1:07:46artificial intelligence legal personhood
- 1:07:49given that the state of the art today is
- 1:07:52basically this intelligent results
- 1:07:54without intelligence so I think a lot of
- 1:07:57the legal personhood arguments involves
- 1:07:59conflating what people think
- 1:08:01AI is versus what a lot of people think
- 1:08:04AI involves intelligent
- 1:08:06thinking machines and they have an urge
- 1:08:08to grant a personhood on that basis but
- 1:08:12I think if they were to look at the
- 1:08:13details they would find that it's not a
- 1:08:16very useful route that's just my
- 1:08:17inclination at this stage professor have
- 1:08:21you had an opportunity to think about if
- 1:08:24the legal system are to be adversarial
- 1:08:27for example if you were to look at small
- 1:08:29claims and in countries where you have
- 1:08:32you know a typical judge would see 500
- 1:08:35claims a day would you recommend that a
- 1:08:38I would perhaps be have you had a chance
- 1:08:41to look at it it'd be more efficient and
- 1:08:44how would you be with bias if that were
- 1:08:46the case and how would you sort of
- 1:08:48separate the data bias feasibly the
- 1:08:52pattern recognition bias that the system
- 1:08:56would sort of throw out yeah no I see
- 1:08:58that as the way things might go these
- 1:09:02will be framed as decision support
- 1:09:03systems that's the way they're framed
- 1:09:05now for judges to deal with their
- 1:09:07workload but under the hood there will
- 1:09:10be aspects of artificial intelligence
- 1:09:12and machine learning and and I don't
- 1:09:15really have any answer that other than
- 1:09:16say this is something we just need to be
- 1:09:17very cognizant of it's all too easy for
- 1:09:21governments to adopt systems and put
- 1:09:24them into place without really thinking
- 1:09:25of the larger implications of that this
- 1:09:30is another question concerning bias you
- 1:09:33referenced California judges using legal
- 1:09:34software to inform their sentencing
- 1:09:36decisions obviously that you mentioned
- 1:09:39the data can also reflect some bias so
- 1:09:41do you have any proposals or any
- 1:09:43suggestions to deal with that is that
- 1:09:45something that is comes down to
- 1:09:47educating judges or is that is there a
- 1:09:50policy approach that needs to be taken
- 1:09:52in working with the private companies
- 1:09:54that are creating the software and using
- 1:09:56the data what are some suggestions there
- 1:09:58yeah so there's a lot of thinking going
- 1:09:59on in this area right now in the policy
- 1:10:01and legal world I don't know that people
- 1:10:03have come to any solutions but some of
- 1:10:06them do involve having sort of neutral
- 1:10:08third parties maybe academics or others
- 1:10:11as part of the process of analyzing and
- 1:10:15looking at systems and more ideas and
- 1:10:17more transparency because right now it's
- 1:10:19a pretty murky
- 1:10:20world of government vendors the kind of
- 1:10:23people who sell this software often do
- 1:10:27it because they have they're already in
- 1:10:30the government system and they have the
- 1:10:32ability to sell so they're not
- 1:10:33necessarily the best or people who are
- 1:10:38situated to create the software but the
- 1:10:39ones who are inside the system and have
- 1:10:42the easiest path to selling it so all
- 1:10:46right Terry well you're pretty much at
- 1:10:47the end of our time so let's wrap it up
- 1:10:49here please join me in thanking Harry
- 1:10:51certain for a wonderful talk Thank You
- 1:10:52great to have
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