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Artificial Intelligence and Law – An Overview and History | Guest Speaker: Harry Surden — Transcript

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  1. 0:04all righty thank you all for coming
  2. 0:07Kotick speaker series
  3. 0:09tomorrow is our code X future law
  4. 0:12conference just Harry pointed out is
  5. 0:15sort of the coachella of legal tech
  6. 0:19activities at least for us
  7. 0:22and Harry's our opening act so Harry was
  8. 0:25our first fellow in code X over 10 years
  9. 0:29ago by now and and he went on to become
  10. 0:33a law professor at University of
  11. 0:37Colorado in Boulder he's still actively
  12. 0:40involved in codex as affiliated faculty
  13. 0:43he started many important initiatives on
  14. 0:47the codex has been a very actively
  15. 0:49involved in our work around computable
  16. 0:51contracts many of you will know that
  17. 0:52Harry wrote the seminal paper and
  18. 0:55computable contracts and many other
  19. 0:57important works in technology but he's
  20. 1:01here today to give a general overview on
  21. 1:03a ai' in law overview in a history and
  22. 1:06so yeah so without further ado I'll just
  23. 1:09turn it over to Harry again and please
  24. 1:11join me in welcoming Harry certain all
  25. 1:17right thank you so much Roland it's so
  26. 1:19great to be back here at codex and at
  27. 1:22Stanford and all the great work that you
  28. 1:24and the other folks at codex do and all
  29. 1:27the great work that happens here all
  30. 1:30right so thanks for that introduction in
  31. 1:31terms of background as Roland mentioned
  32. 1:33I'm a law professor at the University of
  33. 1:35Colorado and also affiliated faculty
  34. 1:37here at the codex Center at Colorado
  35. 1:41I teach research and write about
  36. 1:43intellectual property law especially
  37. 1:45patent law and also the subject of this
  38. 1:47topic artificial intelligence and law
  39. 1:50why the interest in law and technology
  40. 1:53well prior to entering law I was
  41. 1:54actually a software engineer for several
  42. 1:56years I worked as a professional
  43. 1:58software engineer out there on the field
  44. 2:02so today I'm gonna talk about artificial
  45. 2:05intelligence and law artificial
  46. 2:09intelligence of course is also known as
  47. 2:11AI so I'll be using that interchangeably
  48. 2:13at points and I'm gonna try and
  49. 2:16understand how artificial
  50. 2:18Hodgins has been applied to law in the
  51. 2:21past and how it is currently being
  52. 2:23applied to law so I'll start with an
  53. 2:26overview of artificial intelligence
  54. 2:27generally because we are at at law
  55. 2:28school so it's not necessarily the case
  56. 2:31that everyone in the audience is
  57. 2:32familiar with the details of artificial
  58. 2:35intelligence the type of questions we'll
  59. 2:38be looking at is what is artificial
  60. 2:40intelligence what are the major branches
  61. 2:43and approaches where do we see
  62. 2:46artificial intelligence today outside of
  63. 2:48law oh and what are some of the limits
  64. 2:50and then I'll talk about artificial
  65. 2:52intelligence within the law
  66. 2:54I'll do a brief overview the history the
  67. 2:57thinkers who have thought about applying
  68. 2:59artificial intelligence techniques to
  69. 3:02different aspects of the law and then
  70. 3:04we'll move to the current where do we
  71. 3:06see artificial intelligence in law today
  72. 3:08why is going on in the state of the art
  73. 3:11and then finally I'll raise some really
  74. 3:13interesting and I think current and
  75. 3:15pressing policy issues in artificial
  76. 3:17intelligence in law that are really at
  77. 3:19the cutting edge of what policymakers
  78. 3:22are talking about and will serve as some
  79. 3:25fuel for thinking for all of us so
  80. 3:28without further ado let us begin with an
  81. 3:32overview of artificial intelligence
  82. 3:33generally so let's start with a basic
  83. 3:36question what is artificial intelligence
  84. 3:39well let me say at the outset that the
  85. 3:42phrase artificial intelligence has no
  86. 3:45universally agreed-upon meaning has lots
  87. 3:48of different meanings and means
  88. 3:49different things to different people and
  89. 3:51I won't attempt to get into all of them
  90. 3:53here however I find that one useful
  91. 3:57definition of artificial intelligence is
  92. 3:59the following
  93. 4:00AI is using technology to solve problems
  94. 4:04or make automated decisions or
  95. 4:06predictions for tasks that when people
  96. 4:09do them are typically thought to require
  97. 4:11intelligence so for example playing
  98. 4:15chess translating languages driving cars
  99. 4:17these are all tasks that are thought to
  100. 4:20involve some higher order cognitive
  101. 4:22processes when people do them they
  102. 4:25involve spiritual reasoning or thinking
  103. 4:27or abstract conceptualization
  104. 4:31vision etc so if a computer can solve
  105. 4:35such a task employing cognitive
  106. 4:40processes we call it an artificial
  107. 4:42intelligence task and if a computer can
  108. 4:44solve these same tasks even if they do
  109. 4:46it much differently than humans do it we
  110. 4:48think of that as an artificial
  111. 4:50intelligence task and a crucial point is
  112. 4:52that computers do solve these tasks like
  113. 4:55driving or playing chess very
  114. 4:57differently than humans do when they
  115. 5:00address these tasks a computer drives a
  116. 5:03car using techniques that are very
  117. 5:05different from the way humans do it all
  118. 5:09right so let me just start with a caveat
  119. 5:11that that is not a perfect description
  120. 5:13of artificial intelligence or AI not
  121. 5:15everyone would necessarily agree with
  122. 5:18that but I think it's a pretty good
  123. 5:21working definition automating tasks that
  124. 5:23require intelligence when humans do them
  125. 5:25and it's a pretty good working
  126. 5:27definition because many but not all AI
  127. 5:30tasks do involve the automation of
  128. 5:34activities that involve human
  129. 5:37intelligence
  130. 5:38so in describing what AI is I find it
  131. 5:43useful to start out by emphasizing what
  132. 5:46curt a AI current technology is not and
  133. 5:49this is to distinguish current a I
  134. 5:52technology from what many people think
  135. 5:55current AI technology is so when many
  136. 5:59lay people hear the term artificial
  137. 6:01intelligence they imagined that today's
  138. 6:05AI involves sneaking machines machines
  139. 6:08that think like people and this is a
  140. 6:10view of AI that sometimes called strong
  141. 6:13AI so let me emphasize this is the view
  142. 6:16of AI from the movies and from the books
  143. 6:18and TV of fully conversational computers
  144. 6:23or robots so if a computer had strong AI
  145. 6:27which they do not such a computer would
  146. 6:30it be able to think or talk at a level
  147. 6:32that would meet or surpass human beings
  148. 6:34so such an AI might be able to discuss
  149. 6:37abstract philosophy or engage in
  150. 6:40conversation and arbitrary topics let me
  151. 6:43just emphasize that strong AI is
  152. 6:45sigh totally not what we have today
  153. 6:47today's most advanced AI algorithms
  154. 6:50cannot think they cannot replicate human
  155. 6:53higher order cognitive skills such as
  156. 6:55abstract reasoning arbitrary
  157. 6:56conversations a typical two-year-old
  158. 6:58human has more advanced cognitive
  159. 7:00ability than the most advanced AI today
  160. 7:03so so why do I bring this up is because
  161. 7:06companies often advertise their AI as
  162. 7:09cognitive computing things of that made
  163. 7:12nature which lead people who are not in
  164. 7:15the field to think of AI is involving
  165. 7:18Thinking Machines but that is not
  166. 7:21accurate at all or sometimes you see AI
  167. 7:25startups talking about super intelligent
  168. 7:27robot assistants all that is just
  169. 7:31exaggeration and that's going to be a
  170. 7:34major theme of my talk so you'll also
  171. 7:38see on the news pundits are often
  172. 7:40worried speculating about super
  173. 7:42intelligent AI is that will you know in
  174. 7:45in the world super intelligent AI super
  175. 7:49computers so I spend a lot of time
  176. 7:51looking at the state-of-the-art in AI
  177. 7:53and in my opinion in looking at the
  178. 7:55evidence of the state of AI research
  179. 7:57there's no evidence that we're anywhere
  180. 8:00close to anything like strong AI or
  181. 8:02thinking computers anytime soon that's
  182. 8:04just my opinion but the point is that
  183. 8:07the term artificial intelligence at
  184. 8:09least as it is today is a bit of a
  185. 8:12misnomer given the state of today's
  186. 8:14intelligence what we call AI today is
  187. 8:16definitely not human level intelligence
  188. 8:18and it doesn't look anything like you
  189. 8:21would expect given the discussion in the
  190. 8:23media or the way the companies talk
  191. 8:26about it so we've talked about what a AI
  192. 8:29is not so what is AI well as I wish
  193. 8:33shortly describe in more detail what
  194. 8:35much of AI is today is what is called
  195. 8:39pattern based artificial intelligence so
  196. 8:41this involves the use of algorithms to
  197. 8:44search large amounts of data for
  198. 8:46patterns in that can be harnessed in
  199. 8:51useful ways and as we'll see this is
  200. 8:53goes under the formal name of machine
  201. 8:55learning now I don't want to
  202. 8:58understate today's pattern-based and
  203. 9:01machine learning
  204. 9:01AI technology it is an incredibly
  205. 9:04powerful tool in its particular context
  206. 9:07where it's useful so it has been used to
  207. 9:09automate things ranging from driving
  208. 9:12cars to language translation so in
  209. 9:15limited domains current AI technology
  210. 9:17can do amazing things it's just not
  211. 9:20unlimited what it can do it does not
  212. 9:23involve computers that can think or that
  213. 9:26can engage in human level abstract
  214. 9:28reasoning or cognition but rather it's
  215. 9:30really excellent pattern and useful
  216. 9:32pattern magic is also we will see as a
  217. 9:34lesser extent AI also involves knowledge
  218. 9:37representation and rules and deductive
  219. 9:40reasoning so why am I talking about this
  220. 9:43because a really important theme of my
  221. 9:45talk is we have to be realistic about AI
  222. 9:47we have to really understand what AI can
  223. 9:50and can't do what it's good at but it's
  224. 9:52bad at to allow us to have intelligent
  225. 9:56policy conversations because there are
  226. 9:58things that it can do and it can do
  227. 10:00quite well but we there are also things
  228. 10:03that it's very limited at so it's very
  229. 10:06important first of all to demystify
  230. 10:09artificial intelligence technology to
  231. 10:11understand what it really is in order to
  232. 10:14have sensible policy and law discussions
  233. 10:16and more to the point I think that
  234. 10:19rigorous analysis requires us all to
  235. 10:22resist speculation about the future of
  236. 10:26AI we really none of us myself included
  237. 10:28know where AI is going beyond in maybe
  238. 10:32the three to five year time frame so I
  239. 10:34would invite skepticism from all of you
  240. 10:37when you hear pundits out there in the
  241. 10:39world confidently predicting the future
  242. 10:43of AI and recommending law or policy
  243. 10:46choices on that basis because I think
  244. 10:47none of us know with any degree of
  245. 10:50certainty all right so let's with that
  246. 10:56high level view of AI let's dig a little
  247. 10:58deeper into the details of AI so I think
  248. 11:03there are a few useful ways of
  249. 11:05understanding artificial intelligence
  250. 11:07and one of the most helpful ways is to
  251. 11:10understand the major
  252. 11:11approaches that have been used
  253. 11:13historically to implement artificial
  254. 11:16intelligence and I think we can think of
  255. 11:19AI is really a set or a suite of
  256. 11:22different computer techniques and
  257. 11:25mathematics techniques that have been
  258. 11:28used to solve various AI problems so I
  259. 11:31like to think of it as a set of tools in
  260. 11:33a toolbox that can be picked out and
  261. 11:36adapted to various problems so AI is not
  262. 11:39one thing but it's more like a suite of
  263. 11:42things that have a family resemblance to
  264. 11:43one another but with that in mind let's
  265. 11:46talk about I think we can roughly divide
  266. 11:49a I approaches into two large approaches
  267. 11:53and this will be very approximate the
  268. 11:56first approach
  269. 11:58let me call computer logic or rules
  270. 12:01based systems and the second approach
  271. 12:03we'll talk about is machine learning so
  272. 12:08let's talk a little bit about logic
  273. 12:10rules and knowledge representation based
  274. 12:12AI which is the one approach so rules
  275. 12:18and knowledge based systems are part of
  276. 12:19a larger category of artificial
  277. 12:21intelligence of process sometimes known
  278. 12:23as knowledge representation and the goal
  279. 12:26of knowledge representation is to model
  280. 12:28real world processes or systems in ways
  281. 12:32that informs that a computer can use in
  282. 12:35process so often the logic and rules
  283. 12:39based method in knowledge representation
  284. 12:42involves a top-down approach and I'll
  285. 12:45explain what that means in a second but
  286. 12:46basically it means that you have
  287. 12:48programmers or groups of engineers
  288. 12:50observe some real-world tasks often
  289. 12:54involving experts which has certain
  290. 12:57real-world constraints and rules and
  291. 12:59then they attempt to model that
  292. 13:00real-world process in computer form in
  293. 13:03terms of computer rules and
  294. 13:05relationships so a really good example
  295. 13:07of this actually comes from law which is
  296. 13:09TurboTax so many of its tax season now
  297. 13:13so many of you are perhaps using some
  298. 13:15tax software like turbo tax for tax
  299. 13:19assistance and the turbo tax is actually
  300. 13:22a really good example of a knowledge
  301. 13:24representation
  302. 13:25based version of artificial intelligence
  303. 13:28so the company that created TurboTax
  304. 13:33when they're trying to create that
  305. 13:37software what they're trying to do is
  306. 13:38model something out there in the world
  307. 13:40and that something out there in the
  308. 13:42world is law it's the personal income
  309. 13:44tax code a set of real world constraints
  310. 13:47out there on people's legal liabilities
  311. 13:51and duties so what they're trying to do
  312. 13:54is model the personal income tax code in
  313. 13:57a computer in a way that faithfully
  314. 14:00represents the logic and meaning of the
  315. 14:03laws out there in the world so in that
  316. 14:06case the programmers from Intuit the
  317. 14:08company that makes TurboTax
  318. 14:10in consultation with lawyers engineers
  319. 14:13accountants and other will examine the
  320. 14:16personal income tax code try and
  321. 14:18understand it and see it as a set of
  322. 14:21rules legal rules out there in the world
  323. 14:23and attempt to translate the logic and
  324. 14:26meaning of those legal provisions into a
  325. 14:28set of comparable computer rules that
  326. 14:31the computer can follow so so say for
  327. 14:36instance there's a tax law out there
  328. 14:38that says if you make above ninety one
  329. 14:41thousand dollars your marginal tax rate
  330. 14:43is twenty eight percent we can all read
  331. 14:46that as attorneys and understand what
  332. 14:48that means you can also take the logic
  333. 14:51behind that and create a computer role
  334. 14:53that implements that logic which looks
  335. 14:56at what your income is and applies the
  336. 14:59correct marginal tax rate on that amount
  337. 15:02all right so that's just an example of
  338. 15:05taking a law out there in the world and
  339. 15:08modeling it as a legal rule faithfully
  340. 15:11representing the logic um so what's the
  341. 15:14point why is that useful well I think
  342. 15:16what's really interesting is that once
  343. 15:18you have laws represented in computer
  344. 15:21processable form you can do all sorts of
  345. 15:23interesting things with it you can
  346. 15:25engage in computer deductive reasoning
  347. 15:29that is basically difficult or
  348. 15:31impossible for humans to do on their own
  349. 15:33so computers can figure out things by
  350. 15:36processing rules
  351. 15:38in very complex chains that humans can't
  352. 15:41figure out and there's sometimes
  353. 15:43non-obvious conclusions in there so for
  354. 15:46example say you're on a business trip
  355. 15:49and you're recording all your tax
  356. 15:52expenses right there is a certain level
  357. 15:56of rules about what you can deduct or
  358. 15:59not for your business expenses a human
  359. 16:02can determine these rules but not
  360. 16:04without a lot of laborious calculation
  361. 16:07and reading but once you represent the
  362. 16:10laws in computational form it's kind of
  363. 16:13trivial for a computer to understand
  364. 16:15that an expense has been marked as a
  365. 16:17business expense and then apply the
  366. 16:19correct laws to that to correctly assume
  367. 16:22your tax liability so what's interesting
  368. 16:27about this is that this is basically a
  369. 16:29model of the personal income tax code as
  370. 16:32determined by into it but it's such a
  371. 16:33good model that over sixty million
  372. 16:35people in the United States use this or
  373. 16:38something like this and the IRS
  374. 16:40basically defers to the computations
  375. 16:43that have been created by this expert
  376. 16:46system so this is an example of what is
  377. 16:49known as an expert system where you've
  378. 16:52modeled you've taken some of the
  379. 16:54knowledge of experts like lawyers and
  380. 16:56certified public accountants out there
  381. 16:59in the world attempted to replicate it
  382. 17:01computationally and then you can use
  383. 17:03that knowledge to produce useful
  384. 17:04real-world results such as tax liability
  385. 17:09so as we will see a lot of the early
  386. 17:12history of artificial intelligence
  387. 17:14involved knowledge representation and
  388. 17:17also in law creating expert systems in
  389. 17:20medicine law and other domains where
  390. 17:23expert knowledge could be codified and
  391. 17:26usefully represented computationally
  392. 17:30okay so that was the knowledge base and
  393. 17:34rules base approach let me talk about a
  394. 17:36very different approach to AI known as
  395. 17:39machine learning so in the last twenty
  396. 17:43years or so a relatively new suite of AI
  397. 17:47techniques called machine learning began
  398. 17:49to become really popular and
  399. 17:51well it is what I believe really caused
  400. 17:53artificial intelligence to take off in
  401. 17:56the way that we see it today
  402. 17:58so at a very high level machine learning
  403. 18:03involves the use of algorithms that
  404. 18:05examine large amounts of data detect
  405. 18:07patterns in those data and then you can
  406. 18:09often harness these patterns to do many
  407. 18:12useful things machine learning is
  408. 18:15sometimes abbreviated ml so I'll be
  409. 18:18discussing that using that term
  410. 18:20interchangeably but here are some
  411. 18:22examples of machine learning out there
  412. 18:23in the world that you're probably all
  413. 18:25familiar with when a car drives itself
  414. 18:29some or most of the aspects of that
  415. 18:31involve machine learning I'll explain
  416. 18:34that more in a minute when Netflix or
  417. 18:37Amazon suggests a movie or a product
  418. 18:40that you might like based upon your past
  419. 18:42hurt purchases that involves machine
  420. 18:44learning when your email as we shall see
  421. 18:46tells you that an incoming email from
  422. 18:49Nigeria is likely spam that is also an
  423. 18:53example of machine learning it's been
  424. 18:55used in many different things you can
  425. 18:57find non-obvious relationships in data
  426. 19:00such as the risk between your credit
  427. 19:03score your FICO credit score and your
  428. 19:05risk of getting in an accident the
  429. 19:06correlation is very high you can spot
  430. 19:09fraud credit card fraud automatically or
  431. 19:12spot tumors and x-rays machine learning
  432. 19:14is all over the place and it's fair to
  433. 19:17say that machine learning is responsible
  434. 19:20for most of the AI headlines that you
  435. 19:22hear about in the news today so there I
  436. 19:25think they're rival of machine learning
  437. 19:26has made artificial intelligence what it
  438. 19:29is today so it gets most of the
  439. 19:31attention um so again it's helpful not
  440. 19:34to think of machine learning as a thing
  441. 19:37but rather a suite of different
  442. 19:39approaches that also share some family
  443. 19:42resemblances to know one another we can
  444. 19:45think of that as a toolbox of machine
  445. 19:47learning techniques so you might hear
  446. 19:51some of these different techniques out
  447. 19:52there in the world like neural networks
  448. 19:54or deep learning neural networks or
  449. 19:56logistic regression these are all
  450. 19:58different techniques that roughly share
  451. 20:00some same characteristics so let's talk
  452. 20:04a little
  453. 20:05what these characteristics are that make
  454. 20:08something considered a machine learning
  455. 20:10algorithm the first thing to understand
  456. 20:14is that machine learning algorithms are
  457. 20:15intentionally designed to learn and will
  458. 20:19see that I put that in quotes for
  459. 20:21reasons I will explain but roughly
  460. 20:24they're learning because these
  461. 20:25algorithms are designed to be able to
  462. 20:27improve their our performance over time
  463. 20:29on some tasks often by showing it good
  464. 20:33and bad examples of what you want it to
  465. 20:36do so I put the term learning in quotes
  466. 20:39because learning is really a metaphor
  467. 20:41for human learning it does not mean that
  468. 20:44it is actually learning in the way that
  469. 20:46humans learn that's a common mistress
  470. 20:49misconception it doesn't mean that it's
  471. 20:51artificially replicating the higher
  472. 20:54order cognitive processes that are
  473. 20:56thought to me involved in human learning
  474. 20:59rather we can think of it learning is in
  475. 21:02a functional sense so what do I mean by
  476. 21:06that well we say that a human is
  477. 21:08functionally learning when he or she is
  478. 21:11able to get better over time on some
  479. 21:13task through experience by that same
  480. 21:16token if we see a artificial
  481. 21:19intelligence machine learning algorithm
  482. 21:21being able to improve its performance
  483. 21:24over time on some tasks like driving or
  484. 21:27credit card fraud detection with more
  485. 21:30experience we can say that's kind of a
  486. 21:32functional metaphor for learning so in
  487. 21:34that sense we could think of it as
  488. 21:36learning but it's not human level
  489. 21:39learning the second point about machine
  490. 21:42learning is that it involves pattern
  491. 21:44detection so at a very basic level much
  492. 21:47of machine learning can be thought of as
  493. 21:49very sophisticated pattern detection
  494. 21:51systems designed to detect non-obvious
  495. 21:54patterns or correlations in large
  496. 21:56amounts of data and then we try and
  497. 21:59generalize these patterns to use them in
  498. 22:01other related contexts to make useful
  499. 22:05decisions so these patterns are encoded
  500. 22:08in a computer model in some ways and
  501. 22:10we'll talk about sometimes the how
  502. 22:13they're encoded is not very
  503. 22:14interpretable to people and other times
  504. 22:17it is
  505. 22:18but so what do I mean for patterns well
  506. 22:22let's just say that Netflix is trying to
  507. 22:24figure out what movie you're gonna like
  508. 22:27it's gonna look through all of its data
  509. 22:29and try and find people who are like you
  510. 22:32according to some machine learning
  511. 22:35measure of likeness maybe the past
  512. 22:38movies that you liked or maybe some
  513. 22:39other demographic data and what's
  514. 22:42interesting is the patterns are all
  515. 22:44there in the data already is just the
  516. 22:47machine learning algorithm that is the
  517. 22:49ability to pull it out and show it to
  518. 22:52you so almost always the data is the
  519. 22:56patterns that you want are in there it's
  520. 22:58the the art and science of machine
  521. 23:00learning to pull out those patterns in
  522. 23:02useful ways another point about machine
  523. 23:05learning is that they require data often
  524. 23:08large amounts of data to detect the
  525. 23:10patterns that can be used to automate
  526. 23:12decisions so the ability to have machine
  527. 23:15learning goes part and parcel with the
  528. 23:17availability of relevant data we're
  529. 23:19gonna see in law that's kind of a
  530. 23:21problem because not a lot of legal data
  531. 23:23is available in highly processable form
  532. 23:27in this day much of it is behind
  533. 23:29paywalls or non easily processable
  534. 23:33structures so that's something to think
  535. 23:36about and then finally I won't dwell on
  536. 23:38this but I think it's an interesting
  537. 23:40point machine learning often is thought
  538. 23:43of as software they can program itself I
  539. 23:46think it's a little overstating the
  540. 23:48point but I think there is an
  541. 23:49interesting idea in there so machine
  542. 23:52learning programming is contrasted often
  543. 23:56with the top-down structured programming
  544. 23:58that you typically see software done so
  545. 24:02if you're creating a piece of software
  546. 24:03like Microsoft Word you get a bunch of
  547. 24:05programmers in a room and they write a
  548. 24:08bunch of software code that give the
  549. 24:10software different capabilities in a
  550. 24:13very top-down
  551. 24:14structured approach and the computer
  552. 24:17ultimately Falls these instructions and
  553. 24:19these instructions create a web browser
  554. 24:21or a word processor depending on what
  555. 24:24instructions
  556. 24:25by contrast machine learning is a very
  557. 24:27different approach
  558. 24:28you basically often will just really
  559. 24:32the algorithm on some data and then give
  560. 24:34it a bunch of examples of good behavior
  561. 24:36and bad behavior and the Machine kind of
  562. 24:39figures out on its own what activities
  563. 24:43lead to good behavior and what leads to
  564. 24:46bad behavior so for example if you were
  565. 24:48programming a car by the traditional
  566. 24:51top-down approach a self-driving car
  567. 24:53programmers might have a bunch of rules
  568. 24:55whenever you approach a stop sign you
  569. 24:57stop whenever you know you're at a green
  570. 25:00light you go etc etc in a lot of cases
  571. 25:04in self-driving cars you can program the
  572. 25:07cell functionality but by machine
  573. 25:09learning the machine itself figures out
  574. 25:11example by looking at examples of good
  575. 25:14behavior and bad behavior it figures out
  576. 25:16how to drive or you might give it a
  577. 25:19bunch of examples of pedestrians and
  578. 25:21cars and without telling it the
  579. 25:24particular characteristics of what makes
  580. 25:26a pedestrian a pedestrian and a car a
  581. 25:28car it can figure out on its own and be
  582. 25:32able to tell the difference between the
  583. 25:34two so in a way it's programming itself
  584. 25:36to determine the distinction between
  585. 25:38pedestrians and cars as it's driving
  586. 25:40down the road so that's just a good
  587. 25:44example so that is one of the
  588. 25:46characteristics of machine learning it's
  589. 25:48much less top-down rules based
  590. 25:50programming but more bottom-up
  591. 25:52programming by often by giving examples
  592. 25:57I'm gonna just give you a quick example
  593. 25:58of machine learning and then we will
  594. 26:01move on to a I as it is in law but a
  595. 26:06really common example that people give
  596. 26:08because I think it's just very
  597. 26:09understandable is email spam filters so
  598. 26:12you we all know that we're out there in
  599. 26:15the world looking at our email and when
  600. 26:17email comes in you most software
  601. 26:20programs have the option for you to mark
  602. 26:22it as spam
  603. 26:24so how it does that tell your email
  604. 26:27program that a future piece of email is
  605. 26:31likely to be spam or not well basically
  606. 26:35they're often using a machine learning
  607. 26:37algorithm that's designed to detect
  608. 26:40telltale patterns of spam based upon
  609. 26:42what you've given it so what every time
  610. 26:44you mark something is
  611. 26:46you're telling the machine learning
  612. 26:47algorithm hey analyze this and look for
  613. 26:50what characteristics this email has that
  614. 26:54makes it spam and then every time you
  615. 26:57don't mark something as spam you're
  616. 26:59telling it hey look for patterns here
  617. 27:02that make it tell me that it this is not
  618. 27:06spam so that's an example of training
  619. 27:09and algorithm your training it by giving
  620. 27:12it known examples of spam or not spam so
  621. 27:16let's imagine for example that after 100
  622. 27:19spam emails you're a machine learning
  623. 27:21algorithm determines that the phrase or
  624. 27:24in cash is statistically really likely
  625. 27:28to be associated with spam right why
  626. 27:30because it's detected earn cash in know
  627. 27:36wanted emails and it detected or in cash
  628. 27:40in a huge amount of spam emails so the
  629. 27:42next email that comes in that has earned
  630. 27:45cash it's gonna think it's statistically
  631. 27:47at the high likelihood of being spam
  632. 27:50right so there's a couple interesting
  633. 27:52points in there first of all that's an
  634. 27:55example of a machine learning algorithm
  635. 27:57detecting a pattern in law you can also
  636. 28:01it's an example of the machine learning
  637. 28:02algorithm learning right it's learning
  638. 28:05that earn cash is associated with spam
  639. 28:08and you can use that pattern to make
  640. 28:11other predictions another interesting
  641. 28:16point about that is that the
  642. 28:17identification improves over time so it
  643. 28:20might learn another pattern that that
  644. 28:24words that have emails that have free in
  645. 28:29them are statistically more likely to be
  646. 28:31spam or emails from the country Belarus
  647. 28:34or Nigeria are much more likely to be
  648. 28:37spam so it's able to learn over time
  649. 28:39improve its ability to distinguish spam
  650. 28:42and email spam and wanted email so this
  651. 28:48is the idea I want to get to is if
  652. 28:51machine learning does not have an AI in
  653. 28:55general doesn't have the cognitive
  654. 28:56abilities of humans how is it
  655. 28:59that were able to have AI making
  656. 29:03intelligent decisions and I think the
  657. 29:04answer is that we use proxies or
  658. 29:06stand-ins so basically whenever you find
  659. 29:09a pattern out there in the world that
  660. 29:13can be a useful proxy or stand in the
  661. 29:15computer doesn't actually have to
  662. 29:17understand the deep conceptual layer in
  663. 29:19order to make an intelligent decision
  664. 29:21for say what a spam or what is not spam
  665. 29:24right so for instance when an email
  666. 29:26software is looking at an email to
  667. 29:30determine whether it's spam it doesn't
  668. 29:31know what cache is or free is doesn't
  669. 29:34know where the meaning of that doesn't
  670. 29:35have to know the meaning of that why
  671. 29:37because it's found a useful proxy a
  672. 29:39statistical correlation between email
  673. 29:43and the presence of those words and spam
  674. 29:45so this is what I call intelligent
  675. 29:47results without intelligence and that's
  676. 29:49what we see largely in the state of AI
  677. 29:53today where we're using patterns and
  678. 29:56proxies that can be harnessed to make
  679. 29:58useful automated decisions without
  680. 30:00actually having underlying higher-order
  681. 30:03human intelligence another example of
  682. 30:07this is Google's statistical machine
  683. 30:09translation which is pretty good these
  684. 30:12days if you've used it that also uses
  685. 30:15patterns or proxies to translate so when
  686. 30:18so often Google famously figured out
  687. 30:22that you could use UN corpuses so the
  688. 30:25united nation has for 50 years
  689. 30:28translated many documents into the six
  690. 30:32official language of the United Nations
  691. 30:34using high quality translators so you
  692. 30:36have these identical documents in
  693. 30:38multiple languages saying the same exact
  694. 30:41thing and you have hundreds of thousands
  695. 30:43or maybe millions of these so Google
  696. 30:45figured out hey let us release a machine
  697. 30:48learning algorithm on this and maybe
  698. 30:51it'll start figuring out correlations
  699. 30:53that you know oficina de correo means
  700. 30:56post office in spanish without us
  701. 30:58actually having to tell it that and
  702. 31:00that's basically what what has happened
  703. 31:04and we have these really pretty robust
  704. 31:08translations but importantly the
  705. 31:10computer doesn't understand what
  706. 31:12talking about it doesn't know what a
  707. 31:13post-office is it doesn't have to know
  708. 31:15what a post-office is it just has to
  709. 31:17know that certain words appear together
  710. 31:20with statistically high frequency all
  711. 31:25right so that's AI today as I see it
  712. 31:29summary of two major approaches you have
  713. 31:33the logic and rules based knowledge
  714. 31:35representation approach which leads to
  715. 31:37expert systems and embedded law and
  716. 31:39computational law like TurboTax and you
  717. 31:42also have the machine learning or
  718. 31:43pattern based approach one final point
  719. 31:46is I want to say that you don't have to
  720. 31:48choose one or the other many successful
  721. 31:50systems use both of these approaches so
  722. 31:53self-driving cars use a mix of rules
  723. 31:56based systems and machine learning
  724. 31:59systems very effectively so that's one
  725. 32:03point those are hybrid systems I don't
  726. 32:06want to imply that one or the other
  727. 32:07another point about hybrids I want to
  728. 32:10point out is that we often have this
  729. 32:12idea that artificial intelligent systems
  730. 32:15are replacing humans but that's not
  731. 32:17necessarily the case rather it's often
  732. 32:20better to think about it as enhancing
  733. 32:23humans it's often providing humans with
  734. 32:26the ability to make better decisions so
  735. 32:30computer chess can be the best human
  736. 32:34computer player in the world but often
  737. 32:36when humans you combine a computer chess
  738. 32:40program with a human chess player they
  739. 32:42can beat many of the best computer chess
  740. 32:44programs because the humans chess
  741. 32:46playing ability is being enhanced by the
  742. 32:49computer another important point is that
  743. 32:52we often talk about artificial
  744. 32:54intelligence as being fully autonomous
  745. 32:57that's the image which means that the
  746. 33:00system is on its own making the most
  747. 33:03important decisions about its own
  748. 33:04activities like a self-driving car right
  749. 33:08so a fully autonomous system is out
  750. 33:10there the system's making its own
  751. 33:11decisions the reality is many important
  752. 33:14AI systems still have humans in the loop
  753. 33:16which is the idea that the computer will
  754. 33:20often ask for help from a live human to
  755. 33:24make a judgment decision
  756. 33:26or an abstract conceptualization about
  757. 33:28an area where the computer just is not
  758. 33:30able to perform so a good example is the
  759. 33:33state of the art in self-driving cars
  760. 33:35these days is to have a call center
  761. 33:37where a computer self-driving car gets
  762. 33:39stuck it calls a human in a room and
  763. 33:43then a human basically takes over the
  764. 33:44car and steers the self-driving car out
  765. 33:47of trouble and then gives it back to the
  766. 33:49self-driving car and that's just a very
  767. 33:51common conceptualization just a point
  768. 33:54you see that almost in many AI systems
  769. 33:56it's not fully autonomous but it still
  770. 33:58involves a lot of human judgment all
  771. 34:03right
  772. 34:03so let's talk a little bit about AI and
  773. 34:08law so I spent a lot of time talking
  774. 34:10about artificial intelligence generally
  775. 34:12which i think is necessary before we can
  776. 34:14understand a I applied to law you just
  777. 34:18briefly talk about the history of AI and
  778. 34:21law alright so we can think of AI and
  779. 34:24law as going as far back as live myths
  780. 34:28perhaps even further so live myths was
  781. 34:31one of course one of the co-inventors of
  782. 34:34calculus of really famous mathematician
  783. 34:36he was also trained as a lawyer and as
  784. 34:39far back as the 17th century
  785. 34:41Leibniz expressed the idea that perhaps
  786. 34:43we could use math or algorithms to make
  787. 34:47law more predictable more manageable
  788. 34:50more useful and that's really the heart
  789. 34:53of AI in law the heart of the law is
  790. 34:56using computers and mathematical
  791. 34:58formalisms
  792. 34:59to make law more understandable more
  793. 35:00accessible more useful more predictable
  794. 35:03more manageable so he was kind of on to
  795. 35:06something there and I've got a fun aside
  796. 35:08here for the law students here live Nets
  797. 35:12was a lawyer who contributed major
  798. 35:14things to math so it turns out many
  799. 35:17lawyers have made important mathematical
  800. 35:19contributions out there so for instance
  801. 35:23the mathematical topic of linear algebra
  802. 35:25which is basically the mathematical
  803. 35:28backbone of most of machine learning
  804. 35:30these days was partially founded by
  805. 35:33lawyers two of the founding fathers of
  806. 35:36linear algebra arthur cayley and james
  807. 35:39Sylvester
  808. 35:39we're both lawyers and if you look in
  809. 35:41the history of mathematics many of the
  810. 35:44most famous mathematicians were actually
  811. 35:46lawyers as well like live Nets Kaylee
  812. 35:50and Sylvester so there actually is a
  813. 35:52long tradition of lawyers influencing
  814. 35:54math in this interconnectivity between
  815. 35:56law and technology so I'd say the real
  816. 36:01modern era of AI law happened right
  817. 36:04before the dawn of computing it might go
  818. 36:06all the way back to Lila Berringer who
  819. 36:09came up with this idea of Jura metrics
  820. 36:11which is basically saying hey we should
  821. 36:13use more statistics and technical
  822. 36:19analysis to understand the law that was
  823. 36:21back in the 1940s and then really the
  824. 36:25heart of AI in law happened from the 60s
  825. 36:28to the 80s there are a lot of early
  826. 36:30pioneers here I won't name them all but
  827. 36:32some of them are listed up there and I
  828. 36:35call that the error of knowledge
  829. 36:37representation because that was really
  830. 36:39what was going on in AI at the time it
  831. 36:42was a rules-based and knowledge
  832. 36:44representation based system and many of
  833. 36:47these early computer scientists started
  834. 36:50applying these ideas of representing
  835. 36:52roles to law trying and in this era you
  836. 36:58saw a lot of attempts to model legal
  837. 37:00argument formally in ways that computers
  838. 37:03can understand they attempted to model
  839. 37:05legislation or regulation ways that
  840. 37:08computers can understand there were
  841. 37:10early to text extraction and some of
  842. 37:13these people might even be here in the
  843. 37:16audience because there was a lot of
  844. 37:17pioneering work done at Stanford and I
  845. 37:21apologize if you're a pioneer and you're
  846. 37:22not up there there are many more people
  847. 37:25out there important idea important
  848. 37:29conferences that came out of the 80s
  849. 37:31where iCal and Jurek's which still
  850. 37:32exists to this day which are conferences
  851. 37:35dedicated to AI and law most of the AI
  852. 37:38in law research however occurred in
  853. 37:40Europe and not in the United States
  854. 37:42Italy the Netherlands England and
  855. 37:44Germany really their hot beds and even
  856. 37:46to this day remain important centers so
  857. 37:50that's the error of knowledge
  858. 37:52representation
  859. 37:53I'd say the next era is kind of mm to
  860. 37:56the president which is the era of legal
  861. 37:58tech and machine learning and that's
  862. 37:59where we see ourselves now a founding
  863. 38:02moment and that is the founding of
  864. 38:04Stanford codex by roland michael generis
  865. 38:07Josh Walker and all the Codex fellows
  866. 38:10who came in back in 2006 before AI was
  867. 38:14really the rage legal tech startups
  868. 38:18we've seen a lot of legal tech startups
  869. 38:20in the last 12 years that have come out
  870. 38:22some out of Kodak's some in four other
  871. 38:27venues a good example of a legal tech
  872. 38:30startup that came out of Stanford is Lex
  873. 38:32machina which was known as the Stanford
  874. 38:35intellectual property litigation
  875. 38:36clearing galas back in the day which I
  876. 38:38was involved in when I was a fellow here
  877. 38:41spun off and is now a company so that's
  878. 38:46kind of where we are in the history of
  879. 38:48AI and law so let's talk about AI in law
  880. 38:52today where are we seeing artificial
  881. 38:55intelligence being used actually being
  882. 38:57used as a lot of hype but it actually is
  883. 38:59being used in law today I'd like to
  884. 39:03think about there being three categories
  885. 39:05of AI and while use there are the
  886. 39:07administrators of law these are the
  887. 39:10people who create and apply the law so
  888. 39:13judges legislators government officials
  889. 39:15regulators how they use AI we have the
  890. 39:18practitioners of law these are attorneys
  891. 39:20and other people who navigate the legal
  892. 39:22system and then we have the users in law
  893. 39:24people like you and me businesses out
  894. 39:27there who are bound by the law and have
  895. 39:30to comply with it and are looking for
  896. 39:32help to deal with the law so let's talk
  897. 39:35about each of these in term so the first
  898. 39:41case is AI used by administrators of law
  899. 39:43so these are people create and apply the
  900. 39:45law and often we're thinking here of
  901. 39:48legislators or judges so one important
  902. 39:51area we're seeing AI quite a bit comes
  903. 39:53in the criminal sentencing area where
  904. 39:56criminal defendants I'll talk about this
  905. 39:58more in the in the couple minutes but
  906. 40:00you're seeing judges starting to rely on
  907. 40:04sentencing and bail reports
  908. 40:06and these bail reports have been
  909. 40:08produced by a computer machine primarily
  910. 40:10machine learning algorithms that give
  911. 40:12risk of reoffending and the judges are
  912. 40:15not bound by these reports but often
  913. 40:16they follow them and this is in bail and
  914. 40:19sentencing another example we see this
  915. 40:22is in government benefits decisions out
  916. 40:24there legal officials or using this to
  917. 40:28make decisions about certain whether
  918. 40:29somebody qualifies to get a certain
  919. 40:31benefit or not there's certain AI
  920. 40:33components the policing we're starting
  921. 40:35to see this quite a bit we're starting
  922. 40:39to see predictive policing for likely
  923. 40:42crime areas so a lot of police systems
  924. 40:48use AI to try and predict areas where
  925. 40:50they should devote more resources based
  926. 40:53upon past climb patterns facial
  927. 40:55recognition for suspects is happening
  928. 40:57really quickly a lot of police areas are
  929. 41:00using AI to try and detect suspects in
  930. 41:03crowds or from group photographs so that
  931. 41:07there's some I'll talk about this more
  932. 41:09in the Q&A another really important area
  933. 41:12and part of the legal tech revolution is
  934. 41:15the use of AI by Google practitioners
  935. 41:18primarily attorneys by others in the law
  936. 41:20the most famous example is youth the use
  937. 41:23of machine learning in technology
  938. 41:26assisted review document review used to
  939. 41:28be the bane of first and second-year
  940. 41:31associates law sources who would sit in
  941. 41:34a dark room physically looking through
  942. 41:36documents and being built out by their
  943. 41:38partners at $400 an hour to basically do
  944. 41:42pattern detection at this point we've
  945. 41:46started to use machine learning
  946. 41:47algorithms which are better and faster
  947. 41:50at detecting documents that are likely
  948. 41:54to be relevant or privileged to
  949. 41:56litigation however humans are still in
  950. 41:59the loop quite a lot so this is kind of
  951. 42:01a common misperception it's not that
  952. 42:03we're taking lawyers out of the job
  953. 42:04we're just kind of shrinking the
  954. 42:06haystack of irrelevant documents and we
  955. 42:09bring in lawyers to look at the
  956. 42:11documents that are most likely to be
  957. 42:13relevant to the proceedings at hand
  958. 42:16I'll go just go over these quickly but
  959. 42:18we're seeing AI and legal analytics
  960. 42:20out there trying to predict how a judge
  961. 42:23might rule on a particular case or how a
  962. 42:25venue might treat a favorable case based
  963. 42:28upon past outcomes case outcome
  964. 42:30prediction you there a lot of hedge
  965. 42:34funds or not a lot but some hedge funds
  966. 42:36are starting to use various algorithms
  967. 42:38to try and bet on litigation finance by
  968. 42:43using various predictive algorithms a
  969. 42:45big area that we see or legal document
  970. 42:48assembly automated patent writings
  971. 42:51automated contract assembly again these
  972. 42:53often do a first cut of a document
  973. 42:56putting together and then a lawyer will
  974. 42:58put it together
  975. 42:59automated document analysis and
  976. 43:02diligence so you might sick your machine
  977. 43:04learning algorithm out there in the
  978. 43:06world or if you have a merger for
  979. 43:09example and you're trying to locate
  980. 43:11relevant contracts instead of having
  981. 43:13first-year associate look through ten
  982. 43:16thousand documents you might unleash
  983. 43:18your machine learning algorithm to try
  984. 43:20and find documents that are possibly
  985. 43:23relevant to the merger natural language
  986. 43:26processes there's a bunch of other
  987. 43:29they're computable contracts starting to
  988. 43:30happen out of codex legal research is
  989. 43:35starting to have some basic AI law firm
  990. 43:38management and case docketing so a lot
  991. 43:42of activities going on in the lawyers
  992. 43:45area and then finally the poor people
  993. 43:48like us who have to go out there in the
  994. 43:51world and comply with all these laws
  995. 43:53that rule us on a daily basis there we
  996. 43:56can divide this up into two areas
  997. 43:58businesses and ordinary people
  998. 44:01businesses are starting to make a lot of
  999. 44:03use of machine learning and rules based
  1000. 44:07system into automated compliance
  1001. 44:08particularly the gdpr we can thank is
  1002. 44:12the full employment act for privacy
  1003. 44:14lawyers but also for legal tech startups
  1004. 44:17it's created a lot of compliance issues
  1005. 44:20and it's created a lot of interest in
  1006. 44:23using machine learning and rules engines
  1007. 44:26for complying there's a lot of expert
  1008. 44:28systems companies are using kind of you
  1009. 44:32know compliance
  1010. 44:34expert systems for ordinary people there
  1011. 44:38are these expert systems like TurboTax
  1012. 44:40that we looked at legal chatbots
  1013. 44:42like do not pay you may have seen that's
  1014. 44:45sort of a common thing where they help
  1015. 44:46to these chat BOTS
  1016. 44:48and self-help systems try and help you
  1017. 44:51navigate the law and people are starting
  1018. 44:53to use automated document assembly
  1019. 44:55that's you know will maker and things
  1020. 44:58like that that help people put together
  1021. 45:00their own personal documents okay so
  1022. 45:06limits and artificial intelligence I
  1023. 45:08want to return to this because I think
  1024. 45:10is a really important point we don't
  1025. 45:12want to exaggerate what AI can do
  1026. 45:16because I think that serves nobody here
  1027. 45:19except for maybe the legal tech startups
  1028. 45:20there are still many things beyond the
  1029. 45:24realms of current AI technology so first
  1030. 45:27of all a I still requires data right so
  1031. 45:32if it's an expert system it requires
  1032. 45:34expert data which is expensive to
  1033. 45:37collect and if machine learning it
  1034. 45:40requires some sort of data whether it's
  1035. 45:43contracts or rules that the algorithm
  1036. 45:45can look at there's no thinking
  1037. 45:48Computers Computers can't engage in
  1038. 45:51abstract reasoning and also there are a
  1039. 45:53lot of accuracy limits so if you look at
  1040. 45:56Google Translate it's pretty darn good
  1041. 45:58but you wouldn't want to have Google
  1042. 46:01Translate translate your billion-dollar
  1043. 46:03merger agreement into French right why
  1044. 46:05because the accuracy is not quite good
  1045. 46:08enough you'd want an expert human
  1046. 46:12translator doing that and then one of
  1047. 46:14the biggest problems is sometimes the
  1048. 46:16systems are hard to interpret
  1049. 46:20alright so finally I just want to raise
  1050. 46:22a couple of current policy topics with
  1051. 46:25AI and law and they're now happy to talk
  1052. 46:27about these in the question so these are
  1053. 46:29what our law professors and other people
  1054. 46:32in the policy area are really thinking
  1055. 46:33about in AI and law so one thing that
  1056. 46:37will be of interest to law students in
  1057. 46:39this room is the automation of legal
  1058. 46:43jobs and so there's this idea
  1059. 46:47is artificial intelligence gonna Auto
  1060. 46:50automate away most or all jobs in the
  1061. 46:53world and also in law that same question
  1062. 46:56is here and I'll talk about some of the
  1063. 46:58economics research just briefly here so
  1064. 47:02I think it's useful to separate this
  1065. 47:04into two ways of thinking there
  1066. 47:06short-term impacts and long-term impacts
  1067. 47:09in the short term AI like other
  1068. 47:12technologies whether it's automated
  1069. 47:14forum implements or factory robots does
  1070. 47:17displace workers in those areas so that
  1071. 47:20is a real short-term change we're gonna
  1072. 47:22have to deal with as a society for
  1073. 47:25automated truck drivers and we'll see
  1074. 47:28just some degree although a lesser
  1075. 47:30extent in law as well but there's a
  1076. 47:33different question is where there law
  1077. 47:35whether technology destroys jobs
  1078. 47:39permanently and I'll talk about that in
  1079. 47:43a minute but the the important point is
  1080. 47:48that most the research most economists
  1081. 47:50have show this is that technological
  1082. 47:51change like AI ultimately creates more
  1083. 47:55new types of jobs than it displaces
  1084. 47:58right so the net number of jobs
  1085. 48:01tends to be more how that's the
  1086. 48:03long-term view about people individual
  1087. 48:05people tend to be displaced which is a
  1088. 48:08real social problem that we can't ignore
  1089. 48:11so in law there's there's a similar
  1090. 48:13story I think certain legal tasks and
  1091. 48:16certain types of jobs in law will be
  1092. 48:18automated away but as I will talk about
  1093. 48:22I think new types of legal jobs will be
  1094. 48:24created that we just can't imagine right
  1095. 48:26now so often there's just a failure of
  1096. 48:28imagination on our part so what I told
  1097. 48:32my boss students is lawyers do a mix of
  1098. 48:36tasks from the highly abstract to the
  1099. 48:39routine and mechanical so they do a mix
  1100. 48:40of both and traditionally they could
  1101. 48:42charge for both
  1102. 48:44so today's AI technology is much more
  1103. 48:47likely to be able to automate a task if
  1104. 48:49there's an underlying structure or
  1105. 48:51pattern that it can harness so I'd like
  1106. 48:53to say in tasks where lawyers are acting
  1107. 48:56like computers today those tasks will be
  1108. 48:58replaced by computers tomorrow so
  1109. 49:00of the routine mechanical work that
  1110. 49:02lawyers are able to get away with
  1111. 49:04charging for today is gonna be automated
  1112. 49:07away um however that's not a lot of what
  1113. 49:10lawyers do a lot of what lawyers do
  1114. 49:12involve all these other things that a I
  1115. 49:14is actually pretty bad so lawyers do
  1116. 49:17abstract thinking problem solving
  1117. 49:19advocacy client counseling things that
  1118. 49:22involve human emotional intelligence
  1119. 49:23Policy Analysis big picture strategy
  1120. 49:26creative thinking etc etc all of these
  1121. 49:29things are things that a I current AI
  1122. 49:31technology is really bad at so I think
  1123. 49:33those things are less likely to be
  1124. 49:36automated away in the near term at least
  1125. 49:39in the foreseeable future so that's I
  1126. 49:44think that's an important way to think
  1127. 49:45about it so if you're a law student I
  1128. 49:47would think about building up your
  1129. 49:50skills in those areas that we just
  1130. 49:52looked at there the other point is that
  1131. 49:57as I mentioned the creation of new legal
  1132. 49:59jobs so when computers came along people
  1133. 50:03used to do mathematical calculations
  1134. 50:05right they were calculators or computers
  1135. 50:08those jobs went away but entirely new
  1136. 50:11categories of jobs were created so
  1137. 50:13things like slop game computer game
  1138. 50:16designer that didn't exist 60 years ago
  1139. 50:18or data analysts these are entirely new
  1140. 50:20categories of jobs that were enabled by
  1141. 50:24new technology I think similar things
  1142. 50:26will happen in law legal data analysts
  1143. 50:28who knows we just have a failure we're
  1144. 50:30good at imagining the bad we're hard
  1145. 50:32it's hard to imagine the good so we just
  1146. 50:34don't really know what new jobs but I'm
  1147. 50:38pretty confident like most technologies
  1148. 50:40there will be new categories of jobs
  1149. 50:41created by new technology in law like AI
  1150. 50:46this is something I'm happy to talk
  1151. 50:48about during the QA increasingly as I
  1152. 50:52mentioned judges are using AI or at
  1153. 50:55least reports created by AI is a famous
  1154. 50:58compass system you may have heard of
  1155. 51:00that will give a defendant's risk of
  1156. 51:04reoffending to a judge it's a 1 to 10
  1157. 51:05score and judges aren't required to
  1158. 51:08abide by that but often they just refer
  1159. 51:10to it why after all if it says it's got
  1160. 51:12a 8 out of 10 chance
  1161. 51:14offending are you gonna be the judge who
  1162. 51:16wants to bet on the two out of ten
  1163. 51:18probably not
  1164. 51:19you're probably going to defer but
  1165. 51:21there's a lot of issues that I think are
  1166. 51:23worth talking about
  1167. 51:27first of all these can these reports are
  1168. 51:29created by private companies who use
  1169. 51:31machine learning algorithms maybe so in
  1170. 51:34a sense we're sort of outsourcing some
  1171. 51:36of these decisions to private companies
  1172. 51:38often we don't know the data that went
  1173. 51:40into it
  1174. 51:44so is that problematic another issue is
  1175. 51:48what if there are biases in the data
  1176. 51:49this is a real issue so a lot of these
  1177. 51:52risk of reoffending scores are
  1178. 51:55calculated based upon police data so
  1179. 51:58they record crime and characteristics of
  1180. 52:01criminals but what if the police
  1181. 52:02practices themselves are biased all
  1182. 52:04right so say you have two defendants one
  1183. 52:06who is a minority and one who's not and
  1184. 52:09a police force systematically arrests
  1185. 52:12the minority defendant for a similarly
  1186. 52:16situated non majority defendant right
  1187. 52:18there's gonna be a bias embedded in the
  1188. 52:21data and then if that data gets recorded
  1189. 52:24and it is used to train a machine
  1190. 52:26learning algorithm those biases will be
  1191. 52:28subtly embedded in the machine learning
  1192. 52:31model and might cause us to overestimate
  1193. 52:33the risk of reoffending of certain
  1194. 52:36groups so that bias is another major
  1195. 52:39concern another concern is that these
  1196. 52:42machine learning models are often hard
  1197. 52:43to interpret we don't know what they
  1198. 52:46mean the kind of there are more of a
  1199. 52:48black box and that might be an issue
  1200. 52:54another problem out there is that these
  1201. 52:57machine learning systems give you the
  1202. 52:59illusion of objectivity so when a
  1203. 53:03machine learning report tells you that
  1204. 53:06somebody has you know eighty seven point
  1205. 53:08three nine four percent chance of
  1206. 53:10reoffending
  1207. 53:11that sounds pretty precise and damning
  1208. 53:14but in fact there's all sorts of
  1209. 53:16uncertainties and subjectivity that go
  1210. 53:18in this but there's research that shows
  1211. 53:20that people tend to defer to things that
  1212. 53:23sound mathematical and have an air of
  1213. 53:25false precision so when government
  1214. 53:27they're making decisions based upon this
  1215. 53:29is this something we should be concerned
  1216. 53:32about that's something I call the
  1217. 53:34illusion of mechanical objectivity in
  1218. 53:37fact all these systems have tons of
  1219. 53:39subjective decisions that go into them
  1220. 53:41what data to choose what data to exclude
  1221. 53:44how far back you go
  1222. 53:46what do you emphasize for the judge what
  1223. 53:48do you deep prioritize how do you wait
  1224. 53:50things vary a lot of subjectivity in a
  1225. 53:53seemingly objective term another problem
  1226. 53:57is AI is becoming easy to use really
  1227. 54:00easy to use we're packaging up systems
  1228. 54:02for government officials to use but
  1229. 54:04these are often lay officials they don't
  1230. 54:06really know what they're doing so if you
  1231. 54:07give a police department a facial
  1232. 54:10recognition system with 20 different
  1233. 54:12parameters that can be tuned are they
  1234. 54:15going to know how to tune that in order
  1235. 54:16to reduce the likelihood of in correctly
  1236. 54:21identifying minorities probably not
  1237. 54:23they're just gonna use the off-the-shelf
  1238. 54:26settings and that's a real problem
  1239. 54:28because a lot of times these systems can
  1240. 54:31only be used when they've been properly
  1241. 54:34calibrated by people who really know how
  1242. 54:36to use them
  1243. 54:37moreover laypeople don't often
  1244. 54:40understand the subjective nature of the
  1245. 54:43design finally there are privacy issues
  1246. 54:45but I won't go into that because I want
  1247. 54:47to leave time for questions so
  1248. 54:56any questions anyone in the audience you
  1249. 55:02sir had a question before it was just a
  1250. 55:06terminology question on one slide when
  1251. 55:08you talked about using AI to determine
  1252. 55:11the distribution of government benefits
  1253. 55:14benefits is a very strong term I was
  1254. 55:16wondering if you could explain what what
  1255. 55:18kind of benefits that's referring to or
  1256. 55:19give an example
  1257. 55:20yeah certain government benefits so
  1258. 55:24there are certain states that might
  1259. 55:26determine whether you qualify for you
  1260. 55:30know getting some state government
  1261. 55:32monies for various things and then
  1262. 55:34they'll use it used to be a human who
  1263. 55:37would go through the criteria list and
  1264. 55:39now it's often an algorithm which will
  1265. 55:42do the first pass at that yeah yeah so
  1266. 56:18you're right not necessarily in the same
  1267. 56:19industry on net for the economy right so
  1268. 56:23right we could lose jobs in law
  1269. 56:25potentially but on net maybe we'll get
  1270. 56:27other jobs out there yeah
  1271. 57:04yeah so that is that is the argument I
  1272. 57:07tend to be skeptical of that just
  1273. 57:09because there have been a lot of wide
  1274. 57:12changes technological changes in the
  1275. 57:13past like you know electricity and
  1276. 57:16various engines and on net they have not
  1277. 57:19led to and people were worrying about
  1278. 57:21this 100 years ago with the
  1279. 57:22mechanization of Agriculture like what
  1280. 57:24are all these farmers the the US economy
  1281. 57:27used to be 40% farming now it's
  1282. 57:29something like 3 or 4 percent so what
  1283. 57:31are all these unemployed farm workers
  1284. 57:33going to do and things happen I'm not
  1285. 57:36saying it won't happen I just think that
  1286. 57:38that the technological history tells us
  1287. 57:42to be wary of concluding that jobs will
  1288. 57:44go away broadly it might happen still
  1289. 57:47yeah it was just a request to display
  1290. 57:53the last slide on privacy oh yes ok yes
  1291. 58:01could you comment a little bit more
  1292. 58:04about the self-programming aspect of
  1293. 58:06this for instance in the bail
  1294. 58:07determination program my understanding
  1295. 58:12is that as new data is fed into the to
  1296. 58:15the system it changes the weights that
  1297. 58:18are assigned to these things is there a
  1298. 58:20way to track that how do you argue that
  1299. 58:22on appeal yeah that's a great that's a
  1300. 58:26great question so this is one of the
  1301. 58:28high issues right now in fact I'm having
  1302. 58:31a conference on this very point next
  1303. 58:33month that Colorado you guys want to
  1304. 58:35come to the University of Colorado is
  1305. 58:37what happens when a algorithm makes a
  1306. 58:41substantive decision about somebody's
  1307. 58:43rights what do we have the right to know
  1308. 58:47and how do we think about that given
  1309. 58:49that those decisions are basically a
  1310. 58:52bunch of mathematical weights in there
  1311. 58:54and well learning those mathematical
  1312. 58:56weights tell us anything and then how
  1313. 58:59far do we have to trace it back so the
  1314. 59:02answer is it's complicated and people
  1315. 59:04are thinking about it but the use of
  1316. 59:06this is moving forward quicker than the
  1317. 59:08policy thinkers are thinking about it
  1318. 59:10for better or for worse
  1319. 59:12you know following up following up on
  1320. 59:14the thread about what will the role of
  1321. 59:17attorneys and legal providers be in the
  1322. 59:20future in a judicial context why
  1323. 59:23wouldn't why would we necessarily think
  1324. 59:26that there'd be you know a model and
  1325. 59:28algorithm and system that the court uses
  1326. 59:30to come up with like things from
  1327. 59:32sentencing guidelines or other parts or
  1328. 59:35even discovery as opposed to the role of
  1329. 59:37the lawyer in the future would be as
  1330. 59:40part of like you know preliminary
  1331. 59:41motions saying you know advocating I
  1332. 59:43think we should use this algorithm and
  1333. 59:45you know trained by this data set and
  1334. 59:47and then you know the other counsel
  1335. 59:49would argue for something else and then
  1336. 59:51there'd be a ruling and so we'd be
  1337. 59:54really quite in the middle of this and
  1338. 59:56then also maybe avoid the the likely
  1339. 1:00:00outcome of you know once technology gets
  1340. 1:00:02embedded in public sector and especially
  1341. 1:00:04judiciary it's not prone to adapt and
  1342. 1:00:07evolve very quickly and so instead of
  1343. 1:00:09having it be kind of clunky and
  1344. 1:00:11out-of-date quickly and not evolve with
  1345. 1:00:12a law maybe it could be another way also
  1346. 1:00:15to keep it up to date but also always
  1347. 1:00:16fair to the facts and circumstances of
  1348. 1:00:19the case yeah that's a great point I
  1349. 1:00:22think the only issue is that the law has
  1350. 1:00:24not caught up with this idea yet but I
  1351. 1:00:27think something like that is something
  1352. 1:00:30to think about as a way forward I do
  1353. 1:00:33have a nice abstention question the
  1354. 1:00:36legal system that we know the human
  1355. 1:00:38legal system a major component of it is
  1356. 1:00:41that legal decisions emerge from an
  1357. 1:00:44adversarial process another thing is
  1358. 1:00:50that the humans also have a hard time
  1359. 1:00:54explaining the actual basis of their
  1360. 1:00:57decision largely because we actually
  1361. 1:01:00don't even have introspective access to
  1362. 1:01:03to the actual decision making process
  1363. 1:01:05instead our explanation process are post
  1364. 1:01:09facto rationalizations stories and for a
  1365. 1:01:14neural network making a decision I
  1366. 1:01:16suspect the the actual decision-making
  1367. 1:01:20cannot be explained in a way that some
  1368. 1:01:23other agent could actually under
  1369. 1:01:25and the explanation but rather one could
  1370. 1:01:28imagine adversarial post-facto story
  1371. 1:01:32accounts regarding justification of the
  1372. 1:01:36outcome of the decision yeah I think
  1373. 1:01:38that's a really good point and I think
  1374. 1:01:41one of the points you raised in your
  1375. 1:01:42question too is a really good point is
  1376. 1:01:44we don't we sometimes or holding
  1377. 1:01:48algorithms up to a higher standard of
  1378. 1:01:50explaining themselves when today we have
  1379. 1:01:52human decision makers who have to
  1380. 1:01:55provide an explanation but it might not
  1381. 1:01:56be the true explanation or it might be a
  1382. 1:01:59misleading explanation or they might not
  1383. 1:02:00even know why they made the decision
  1384. 1:02:03algorithmic decision-making gives us the
  1385. 1:02:05ability to peer in at a very deep level
  1386. 1:02:08in ways that we can't peer inside the
  1387. 1:02:10human brain and get in some sense see
  1388. 1:02:13the decision but in other sense it might
  1389. 1:02:15not be interpretable and strategies like
  1390. 1:02:18that may be a way to deal with some of
  1391. 1:02:20that yes yeah so thanks for for a nice
  1392. 1:02:24survey of the history and current state
  1393. 1:02:28of this area I was just going to make
  1394. 1:02:30one comment about the risk assessment
  1395. 1:02:33algorithms there composts stuff so so
  1396. 1:02:36it's great the risks are significance
  1397. 1:02:38it's generated this whole literature
  1398. 1:02:39about sort of studying the varieties of
  1399. 1:02:46sort of bias and fairness and they sort
  1400. 1:02:50of multiple incompatible possible models
  1401. 1:02:53that you might want to optimize but one
  1402. 1:02:55downside of it is it is it sort of
  1403. 1:02:58sucked the oxygen out of the discussion
  1404. 1:03:01of AI in support of administrative
  1405. 1:03:05processes which which is that that
  1406. 1:03:15there's a vast number of different
  1407. 1:03:16governmental activities that can be
  1408. 1:03:18improved in principle by by automation
  1409. 1:03:22of some aspects and you know it's like
  1410. 1:03:25the risk assessment is just barely it's
  1411. 1:03:28only marginally AI at all it's easy as
  1412. 1:03:30your statistical models that are based
  1413. 1:03:32on mostly on sort of criminological
  1414. 1:03:34theory they have an empirical basis
  1415. 1:03:38right it's unfortunate I just I guess
  1416. 1:03:41it's a kind of unfortunate that that's
  1417. 1:03:43become representative sort of AI in the
  1418. 1:03:47government when it seems like it's not
  1419. 1:03:48representative at all other than how
  1420. 1:03:51things can go wrong it's representative
  1421. 1:03:53of that yeah no I think you're I think
  1422. 1:03:54you're really right I mean one danger is
  1423. 1:03:57that particularly academics can be
  1424. 1:04:00become really entranced by the latest
  1425. 1:04:03idea and this you know has a lot of
  1426. 1:04:06interesting properties to it but they
  1427. 1:04:09might be ignoring the more beneficial
  1428. 1:04:12aspects of AI there might actually lead
  1429. 1:04:15to helping criminal defendants or
  1430. 1:04:17helping the under lawyers and you want
  1431. 1:04:20to be wary not to suck the oxygen out of
  1432. 1:04:23the room to throw the baby out with the
  1433. 1:04:24bathwater yes from our online audience
  1434. 1:04:29do you think that the world needs the
  1435. 1:04:31data producer right for non personal
  1436. 1:04:34data or some kind of sweet generous
  1437. 1:04:36related right for companies who generate
  1438. 1:04:39or labeled ML data you think such a
  1439. 1:04:43right would hinder or incentive eight
  1440. 1:04:46innovation wait say it again
  1441. 1:04:49the whole question or just the first
  1442. 1:04:52part yeah do you think that the world
  1443. 1:04:54needs a data producer right for non
  1444. 1:04:56personal data or some kind of sweet
  1445. 1:04:58generous related break I tend to not be
  1446. 1:05:02in favor of more legal rights over
  1447. 1:05:04information there's already quite a lot
  1448. 1:05:07of protection in terms of copyright to
  1449. 1:05:11some extent patent I think that a legal
  1450. 1:05:13production right would just add another
  1451. 1:05:15layer of friction in the system so I
  1452. 1:05:19tend to be skeptical on that basis hi
  1453. 1:05:24you mentioned abstract thinking and
  1454. 1:05:27something that was safe for attorneys
  1455. 1:05:29versus AI or machines I want to know if
  1456. 1:05:32you can elaborate on that one of the
  1457. 1:05:33questions was prior was that machines
  1458. 1:05:37might be able to abstract down to be
  1459. 1:05:39able to interpret discussion or
  1460. 1:05:42argumentation better than humans so I
  1461. 1:05:44found that contradictory it wasn't sure
  1462. 1:05:46oh wait so say say more about the
  1463. 1:05:48example you found confusing basically I
  1464. 1:05:50believe that when you're doing
  1465. 1:05:52computation
  1466. 1:05:52no law and you're doing abstraction that
  1467. 1:05:55a computer could do abstraction much
  1468. 1:05:57better than a human that's actually one
  1469. 1:05:58of the things that computers can do
  1470. 1:06:00better and so I was wondering I was just
  1471. 1:06:02for you to comment on one of your slides
  1472. 1:06:04that you were saying that that was one
  1473. 1:06:06of the things that was safe for
  1474. 1:06:07attorneys yeah so abstraction is one of
  1475. 1:06:09those unfortunate words which has 20
  1476. 1:06:11different meanings and there's the
  1477. 1:06:14computer version of abstraction and
  1478. 1:06:16mathematical which I agree with you
  1479. 1:06:17which is sort of representing things at
  1480. 1:06:20different levels what I was referring to
  1481. 1:06:22is abstract ideas like philosophy you
  1482. 1:06:25know a computer couldn't knowingly the
  1483. 1:06:29way the state of AI you know have an
  1484. 1:06:32intelligent original conversation about
  1485. 1:06:35an abstract idea you know like the
  1486. 1:06:37freedom of the state or something all
  1487. 1:06:39right that's the sense I'm abstraction
  1488. 1:06:46I'm not yeah yeah I'd love to see it
  1489. 1:06:50yeah thank you
  1490. 1:06:51yeah so from a different member of our
  1491. 1:06:55remote audience is legal personality
  1492. 1:06:58part of the answer to how we should
  1493. 1:06:59regulate more advanced applications of
  1494. 1:07:02AI most policymakers currently seem to
  1495. 1:07:05be going down a regulatory route that
  1496. 1:07:07focuses on product liability but could
  1497. 1:07:09granting some AI systems legal
  1498. 1:07:12personality it can to say the way the
  1499. 1:07:14law recognizes corporations as legal
  1500. 1:07:17persons be part of the answer uh so I
  1501. 1:07:20tend not to think that legal personality
  1502. 1:07:22is that useful right now given the state
  1503. 1:07:24of AI because I think at least you know
  1504. 1:07:27when it comes down to it corporations
  1505. 1:07:29although they have legal personhood or
  1506. 1:07:31ultimately people at the end of the day
  1507. 1:07:34and I think a lot of the complex complex
  1508. 1:07:38issues of the day have to deal with
  1509. 1:07:40people at the end of the day and I
  1510. 1:07:41haven't seen any really good problems
  1511. 1:07:44that would be solved by granting
  1512. 1:07:46artificial intelligence legal personhood
  1513. 1:07:49given that the state of the art today is
  1514. 1:07:52basically this intelligent results
  1515. 1:07:54without intelligence so I think a lot of
  1516. 1:07:57the legal personhood arguments involves
  1517. 1:07:59conflating what people think
  1518. 1:08:01AI is versus what a lot of people think
  1519. 1:08:04AI involves intelligent
  1520. 1:08:06thinking machines and they have an urge
  1521. 1:08:08to grant a personhood on that basis but
  1522. 1:08:12I think if they were to look at the
  1523. 1:08:13details they would find that it's not a
  1524. 1:08:16very useful route that's just my
  1525. 1:08:17inclination at this stage professor have
  1526. 1:08:21you had an opportunity to think about if
  1527. 1:08:24the legal system are to be adversarial
  1528. 1:08:27for example if you were to look at small
  1529. 1:08:29claims and in countries where you have
  1530. 1:08:32you know a typical judge would see 500
  1531. 1:08:35claims a day would you recommend that a
  1532. 1:08:38I would perhaps be have you had a chance
  1533. 1:08:41to look at it it'd be more efficient and
  1534. 1:08:44how would you be with bias if that were
  1535. 1:08:46the case and how would you sort of
  1536. 1:08:48separate the data bias feasibly the
  1537. 1:08:52pattern recognition bias that the system
  1538. 1:08:56would sort of throw out yeah no I see
  1539. 1:08:58that as the way things might go these
  1540. 1:09:02will be framed as decision support
  1541. 1:09:03systems that's the way they're framed
  1542. 1:09:05now for judges to deal with their
  1543. 1:09:07workload but under the hood there will
  1544. 1:09:10be aspects of artificial intelligence
  1545. 1:09:12and machine learning and and I don't
  1546. 1:09:15really have any answer that other than
  1547. 1:09:16say this is something we just need to be
  1548. 1:09:17very cognizant of it's all too easy for
  1549. 1:09:21governments to adopt systems and put
  1550. 1:09:24them into place without really thinking
  1551. 1:09:25of the larger implications of that this
  1552. 1:09:30is another question concerning bias you
  1553. 1:09:33referenced California judges using legal
  1554. 1:09:34software to inform their sentencing
  1555. 1:09:36decisions obviously that you mentioned
  1556. 1:09:39the data can also reflect some bias so
  1557. 1:09:41do you have any proposals or any
  1558. 1:09:43suggestions to deal with that is that
  1559. 1:09:45something that is comes down to
  1560. 1:09:47educating judges or is that is there a
  1561. 1:09:50policy approach that needs to be taken
  1562. 1:09:52in working with the private companies
  1563. 1:09:54that are creating the software and using
  1564. 1:09:56the data what are some suggestions there
  1565. 1:09:58yeah so there's a lot of thinking going
  1566. 1:09:59on in this area right now in the policy
  1567. 1:10:01and legal world I don't know that people
  1568. 1:10:03have come to any solutions but some of
  1569. 1:10:06them do involve having sort of neutral
  1570. 1:10:08third parties maybe academics or others
  1571. 1:10:11as part of the process of analyzing and
  1572. 1:10:15looking at systems and more ideas and
  1573. 1:10:17more transparency because right now it's
  1574. 1:10:19a pretty murky
  1575. 1:10:20world of government vendors the kind of
  1576. 1:10:23people who sell this software often do
  1577. 1:10:27it because they have they're already in
  1578. 1:10:30the government system and they have the
  1579. 1:10:32ability to sell so they're not
  1580. 1:10:33necessarily the best or people who are
  1581. 1:10:38situated to create the software but the
  1582. 1:10:39ones who are inside the system and have
  1583. 1:10:42the easiest path to selling it so all
  1584. 1:10:46right Terry well you're pretty much at
  1585. 1:10:47the end of our time so let's wrap it up
  1586. 1:10:49here please join me in thanking Harry
  1587. 1:10:51certain for a wonderful talk Thank You
  1588. 1:10:52great to have

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