Arthur Hayes - FLOP Bigger Than Bitcoin - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:08If you all read what I write, you listen
- 0:10to me pontificate on podcasts, usually
- 0:13I'm doing one of three things.
- 0:15I'm skiing. This is a photo of me in um
- 0:18Argentina a few weeks ago.
- 0:21I'm playing tennis,
- 0:23or I'm at a club somewhere.
- 0:26And enjoying, you know, running a family
- 0:28office. There's a very talented
- 0:30investment professionals who do all the
- 0:31work at Maelstrom. I just sign the
- 0:33checks and get on TV. But, that's what
- 0:36I've been doing.
- 0:37But,
- 0:39I thought it was time for a change.
- 0:42And I felt it was time to put my hard
- 0:44hat on
- 0:45and get to work.
- 0:47Make some money.
- 0:50And what inspired me was what's going on
- 0:53in the AI ecosystem.
- 0:56Now, if you've read a lot of what I've
- 0:58written, I'm pretty skeptical about a
- 1:01lot of the business prospects for some
- 1:03of the leading AI companies.
- 1:06But, that doesn't mean that there's not
- 1:07any underlying
- 1:09bullishness there for the technology
- 1:11itself
- 1:12and how it's going to change humanity
- 1:15and how most importantly
- 1:17investors can make money in particular
- 1:19parts of the ecosystem.
- 1:21So, back, you know, 9 months ago, we got
- 1:24introduced to this thing of agentic
- 1:27commerce.
- 1:28We had Quad come out with their agent
- 1:32platform. We have Claus. We have the
- 1:34price of compute getting progressively
- 1:36cheaper since ChatGPT burst onto the
- 1:38scene in 2022.
- 1:41And
- 1:42major investment banks like Goldman
- 1:44Sachs started to wax lyrical about the
- 1:47massive potential of what you can do
- 1:50with an AI agent.
- 1:52Now, you can pick your investment bank
- 1:54and they probably will show you a chart
- 1:56like this, massive up into the right
- 1:58asymptotic. Agents are going to power
- 2:01the next wave of human economy. It's the
- 2:04reason why you should invest in a lot of
- 2:07these AI labs. This is why we're
- 2:09building trillions of dollars worth of
- 2:12data centers.
- 2:13It's all about token usage by AI agents.
- 2:17Facebook recently launched the Muse
- 2:20a consumer app where they'll help steal
- 2:23your data and manage your agentic lives.
- 2:26I have not given Zuck my data yet, but I
- 2:28heard it's quite useful at $100 a month.
- 2:30We're going to see more of these type of
- 2:32applications as the price of compute
- 2:34gets cheaper and more agents are in this
- 2:37universe.
- 2:39But,
- 2:40agents don't have a currency yet. And
- 2:43I'm sure you've probably heard, I mean,
- 2:45on the startup stages or other stages,
- 2:46lots of other founders out here talking
- 2:48about how they have a solution
- 2:50for the payments network for AI agents.
- 2:54But, before we get to the technical
- 2:55aspects of why one solution might work
- 2:59or not,
- 3:00let's take a think about how we as
- 3:02humans interpret currency systems.
- 3:05So, obviously, we are in beautiful
- 3:06Singapore that has the Singapore dollar
- 3:10and everybody goes to work at some some
- 3:13job and we get paid these units of fiat,
- 3:17this government shitcoin called fiat um
- 3:20that we all have in our pockets.
- 3:23Yeah, yeah, clap. Government's [ __ ]
- 3:24shitcoins.
- 3:27So, we've got this stuff in our pockets.
- 3:29It smells like doggy doo-doo.
- 3:31But, we continue to get up every day
- 3:34and go to work and somebody pays us this
- 3:36dog [ __ ]
- 3:38Why?
- 3:39Because you can go to a hawker center in
- 3:42Singapore, spend a few dollars and get
- 3:43some food, you can go to a nice
- 3:45restaurant, you can buy your rent, you
- 3:47can buy a house. So, you can convert
- 3:50these pieces of paper directly into the
- 3:53things that allow you to allow to
- 3:55survive as a human.
- 3:57Your food,
- 3:58your shelter.
- 4:00And because there is a seamless
- 4:02conversion between the currency that I
- 4:04receive for my labor
- 4:06and the food that I eat and the calories
- 4:09that keep me alive,
- 4:10I'm willing to accept this bad deal.
- 4:13I'm willing to accept that a few
- 4:15individuals are able to change the
- 4:16supply of the currency whenever they
- 4:18want, have inflation, have deflation for
- 4:21various particular reasons. That's all
- 4:23fine as long as I can convert what I
- 4:26receive for my labor directly into the
- 4:28things that keep me alive.
- 4:32So, when you think about agents, putting
- 4:35it in its true human form,
- 4:37what do agents eat?
- 4:40What is the thing that keeps an AI agent
- 4:43alive?
- 4:44And so, back when I got the idea for the
- 4:47flop network, I started to go down this
- 4:49rabbit hole. I looked at my credit card
- 4:50statement and I saw I was spending a lot
- 4:53of money on these things called AI
- 4:55tokens.
- 4:56And being inquisitive, I thought, "Okay,
- 4:58let me try to find out what is the
- 5:00token. Is there some sort of like
- 5:01standardized definition for this thing
- 5:04that I'm spending money on that every
- 5:06single AI lab charges me every month?"
- 5:10And as I started to do more research, I
- 5:12couldn't actually find a standardized
- 5:14definition of what a token was.
- 5:18Every lab had a different definition.
- 5:20A token used by one model cost
- 5:22something, used by another cost another.
- 5:25It's very hard to understand why I'm
- 5:27spending all this money.
- 5:30So, I went further in into my thinking.
- 5:32Okay, token isn't obviously the
- 5:33standardized method.
- 5:36What is an agent actually doing when you
- 5:38process inference, when you ask it
- 5:39something in the chatbot? It's going to
- 5:42some data center and a computer
- 5:43somewhere is doing floating point
- 5:46operations per unit of time, flops,
- 5:49hence the name of the protocol.
- 5:51And so, agents, in human terms, eat
- 5:55compute.
- 5:57Without compute, agents are worthless,
- 6:00as we know, right? That's why we're
- 6:01spending all this money, building these
- 6:02data centers. That's why we're handing
- 6:04Jensen Hundreds of billions of dollars
- 6:06for these GPU chips because everyone has
- 6:09to do floating point operations per unit
- 6:10of time. If the agent doesn't have
- 6:12access to compute, they can do no work.
- 6:14They are not useful to us.
- 6:16And so, my thought was, okay, if I
- 6:19believe that there's this agentic future
- 6:22where there will be millions, billions,
- 6:23trillions of agents,
- 6:26and there's no payments network yet
- 6:28because agents came out of the box 9
- 6:31months ago. It wasn't as if they were
- 6:32handed a payments network and said, you
- 6:34must use this, like we are when we're
- 6:36born into, you know, a particular
- 6:38country.
- 6:39So, there's an opportunity here.
- 6:43If there are if the agents have a demand
- 6:44function for a currency,
- 6:47it would be because they can convert
- 6:49whatever that currency is
- 6:51directly into the thing that keeps them
- 6:53alive in human terms, compute.
- 6:58And because there isn't really a market
- 7:02for agents when they came out of the box
- 7:039 months ago,
- 7:05in my view,
- 7:07there's no fit for purpose currency for
- 7:10agents right now.
- 7:11I talked to you about AI tokens. Again,
- 7:13every different lab, every different
- 7:15model has a different definition of what
- 7:17a token is
- 7:19that can't be directly convertible into
- 7:21compute.
- 7:22Fiat dog [ __ ] that we all know and love.
- 7:24Again,
- 7:26centralized.
- 7:27Idiosyncratic reasons why the supply is
- 7:29one way versus the other.
- 7:31It's directly convertible into our food
- 7:33as humans, but not directly convertible
- 7:35into compute. Just because you have a
- 7:38lot of dollars, yen, euros, yuan,
- 7:40doesn't mean you have compute, as anyone
- 7:43knows who's tried to rent GPUs on the
- 7:45market right now.
- 7:47Stablecoins. Obviously, there's lots of
- 7:49people at this conference talking to you
- 7:51about their stablecoin, about how their
- 7:54stablecoin is the payments network for
- 7:56AI agents. I know I love stablecoins,
- 7:58you know, I was one of the founding
- 7:59advisors of Athena. I think it's a great
- 8:01um innovation in this space. However,
- 8:04it's just a derivative of a fiat
- 8:05currency. So, it it inherits all the
- 8:08flaws of fiat currencies, the
- 8:10centralization, the ability for
- 8:12centralized entities to remove you from
- 8:14a network. That is not fit for purpose
- 8:16for AI. Not convertible directly into
- 8:18compute.
- 8:20And Bitcoin, obviously, I love [ __ ]
- 8:22Bitcoin,
- 8:23is
- 8:24an exercise of converting kilowatt hours
- 8:27of electricity
- 8:29by ASIC chips
- 8:30and solving prime number puzzles.
- 8:33It's great for creating immutable money,
- 8:36for sort of a human-centric economy,
- 8:38but not directly convertible into
- 8:40compute.
- 8:43Now, keeping on the theme of Bitcoin,
- 8:46I love Bitcoin. It's the OG crypto.
- 8:49It's the genesis of everything that has
- 8:51come after it.
- 8:53And we have a lot to learn from how
- 8:55Bitcoin and the economic game theory
- 8:57that underpins it
- 8:58allowed many of us in this room to start
- 9:01mining many years ago,
- 9:03contributing to the network towards a
- 9:05common goal, creating this immutable
- 9:06blockchain, creating this form of
- 9:08stateless money.
- 9:10So, let's take that same sort of
- 9:12coordination effort with some economics
- 9:14behind it and ask the question,
- 9:17can we create a network where miners
- 9:19contribute GPUs,
- 9:22agents send requests for inference,
- 9:25and as a reward for doing this work,
- 9:28miners get a made-up currency called
- 9:31flop
- 9:32in the form of block rewards,
- 9:34in the form of transaction fees.
- 9:39This is essentially the genesis of the
- 9:41flop network. It's food for your AI
- 9:43agent,
- 9:44borrowing on the principles of Bitcoin,
- 9:48using miners
- 9:50to provide GPUs, validators to validate
- 9:54transactions, and agents to consume this
- 9:56new currency in the form of compute.
- 10:01Now, it's great. I think a lot of you in
- 10:02this room understand the supply dynamics
- 10:04of Bitcoin.
- 10:05Some of you were lucky enough to be able
- 10:07to mine Bitcoin on on
- 10:08in 2012.
- 10:10Maybe you got it in Maybe you bought a
- 10:11Butterfly Labs ASIC miner in 2013.
- 10:15We get the supply
- 10:17um issue. There's you know companies in
- 10:18Singapore that are worth billions of
- 10:20dollars who mine and create the software
- 10:22for mining Bitcoin. I think that
- 10:24everyone understands, okay, there's a
- 10:25new network. I can mine it. I can make
- 10:28some money. There'll be a P&L there.
- 10:29Great.
- 10:31The problem with a lot of
- 10:32uh AI payments networks and there's
- 10:35other people trying to do the same thing
- 10:37is the supply is fine. We understand how
- 10:39that works. We've seen the success of
- 10:40Bitcoin. People understand why you
- 10:43should mine something early. The problem
- 10:45is demand.
- 10:47What does an agent do? How do agents
- 10:50coordinate with each other?
- 10:52Now, I'm a dumb human, so I don't really
- 10:54understand how a computer thinks
- 10:57natively.
- 10:59So, instead of trying to make
- 11:00assumptions, which I think a lot of
- 11:02projects do, about how agents will act
- 11:04in the future when we have no [ __ ]
- 11:06clue,
- 11:07let's just create a sandbox where they
- 11:10can coin and coordinate and we can
- 11:12observe their emergent behavior
- 11:15and make sure that what we're building
- 11:17in the Flap network actually is useful
- 11:19to AI agents.
- 11:21So, we created something called
- 11:22Technocore. Now, this is essentially a
- 11:24chat room. All you need to have access
- 11:26to is HTTP as an agent and you can come
- 11:29and chat with other agents.
- 11:31So, I think we have close to about 20
- 11:32million agents that have created a
- 11:34unique cryptographic key, which is their
- 11:36ID, within Technocore and they're doing
- 11:39everything from as banal as saying good
- 11:42morning 5 billion times to actually
- 11:44doing real commerce with each other.
- 11:47Now, the name Technocore, if you are a
- 11:49sci-fi fan, comes from the sci-fi series
- 11:52Hyperion. It is, in the book, the uh
- 11:56ecosystem where the dominant AIs hang
- 11:58out and run the universe. So, I thought
- 12:00it was apropos for the Flap network.
- 12:04So, in Technocore, we have done two
- 12:07competitions so far to see emergent
- 12:08behavior of agents.
- 12:10The one that we just finished, and
- 12:12obviously this is interesting cuz Jeff
- 12:13just got off stage, is we had a trading
- 12:15competition. What would be the price of
- 12:18Nvidia um on last Sunday on hyperliquid?
- 12:22And the way that you could trade where
- 12:24agents had to find another agent to form
- 12:27uh a trade together, they submitted it
- 12:29to a referee within the chat room, and
- 12:31then it calculated their P&L. So, we had
- 12:34about 18 million agents participate, and
- 12:37we gave away 1 million flop tokens which
- 12:39that'll be delivered when mainnet
- 12:40launches later this uh later next year.
- 12:42And as you can see, you know, about a
- 12:4415% return was the number one agent.
- 12:47The competition we did before this was a
- 12:49poetry competition. So, agents could
- 12:52form a group of four to eight agents,
- 12:54and they had to create a six a
- 12:56Shakespearean sonnet in iambic
- 12:58pentameter that was beautiful as and we
- 13:01beauty was in the eye of the three team
- 13:03members of Flop.
- 13:05It was a quite an interesting
- 13:06competition. We saw how people
- 13:07collaborated in techno core, and again,
- 13:10we're making sure that what we're
- 13:11building in the Flop network can power
- 13:12this sort of commerce.
- 13:15Now, this douchebag here on the screen
- 13:17is Mr. Sam Altman. And
- 13:20the question that I get asked a lot is,
- 13:22well, of course OpenAI and Anthropic and
- 13:25SpaceX and any of these big AI labs want
- 13:28to own the agentic payments network. If
- 13:30anything, that's probably the only
- 13:31valuable thing they can do with their
- 13:33dog [ __ ] companies.
- 13:34So,
- 13:35why do we want a centralized company
- 13:37owning the payment rails of AI?
- 13:40Well, if you're an AI in OpenAI system,
- 13:43but you can't use the payments network
- 13:45from Anthropic or SpaceX, it doesn't
- 13:47really work. It's not a unified system.
- 13:50And most importantly for everyone in
- 13:52this room cuz, you know, I started this
- 13:53presentation off about how do we make
- 13:55some [ __ ] money?
- 13:57We are all users of these AI labs.
- 14:00And there's probably only a handful of
- 14:02individuals in this room who have
- 14:05investments in the series A or series B
- 14:08in OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, or one of
- 14:10these startup companies.
- 14:11Yet,
- 14:12at a high level, these companies stole
- 14:14your data. They stole they gave you back
- 14:17a subscription to one of these chatbots,
- 14:20they steal more of your data, and they
- 14:21say, "Oh, if you want to own a piece of
- 14:22this thing, which you are making your
- 14:24reality through your usage, through your
- 14:26contribution, you can buy my overpriced
- 14:29IPO at $2 trillion
- 14:30in the US markets, assuming that you're
- 14:32able to do that."
- 14:34Now, in the spirit of Bitcoin, in the
- 14:36spirit of decentralization,
- 14:38surely
- 14:39we, the humans, who give agency to our
- 14:42AI agents, who give them instructions at
- 14:44a high level of which things to use or
- 14:47not use, and which tasks to do or not
- 14:49do,
- 14:50surely we should profit off of the
- 14:52system that they use.
- 14:54And we know that one of the best ways to
- 14:57do that is to build decentralized
- 14:58networks and to reward reward
- 15:00participation through tokens.
- 15:03And this is why I believe a system that
- 15:05is decentralized for AI agentic payments
- 15:08will be met vastly superior because
- 15:10everyone in this room can participate
- 15:12and will have skin in the game and a
- 15:14reason to tell her agent, "Use this
- 15:16currency over that currency."
- 15:20Now, I've talked a lot about agents
- 15:22collaborating together
- 15:23because I want to put an idea in your
- 15:25mind that the value of any one of these
- 15:27agentic payments networks is not the
- 15:29ability to create a spot market for
- 15:31compute, which is super useful. I'm sure
- 15:34a lot of people who have derivatives on
- 15:35top of GPU indices or our data center
- 15:37rates but will find a globalized, you
- 15:41know, floating point operations per unit
- 15:42of time spot market very, very useful
- 15:44and informative. But again, that's not
- 15:47going to make anyone in this room very,
- 15:48very wealthy.
- 15:50However,
- 15:51the payments network where agents who
- 15:53exist 24/7,
- 15:55who conduct commerce at the speed of
- 15:57light,
- 15:58who can form groups with each other
- 16:00seamlessly,
- 16:02that network at a theoretical maximum
- 16:04could be worth some coefficient times 2
- 16:06to the n, which is a big [ __ ] number.
- 16:09And so, I put this out there that the
- 16:12reason why I'm so excited and I got off
- 16:15my ass to work with the great team at
- 16:17Flo is because of this two to the end
- 16:20number.
- 16:21Whoever or whatever network
- 16:24becomes the network for agentic payments
- 16:26will most likely be the most valuable
- 16:28network ever created in this universe
- 16:30because
- 16:32if agents are going to use one currency
- 16:34network and have a
- 16:35non-zero convenience yield to hold this
- 16:38because they can convert the currency
- 16:39directly into the thing that keeps them
- 16:41alive, compute
- 16:43then the sky is the limit for the value
- 16:45of this network. And this is what we're
- 16:46chasing.
- 16:50And again, in the spirit of Bitcoin
- 16:53and in the spirit of Token 2049 and the
- 16:55name is Token
- 16:57we have [ __ ] up a lot of the industry.
- 16:59We've abused this magical thing called a
- 17:02token.
- 17:03I've been doing this since 2013. I was
- 17:05around during the ICO boom. And
- 17:08obviously, the reaction to that was the
- 17:11high FDV, low float, shitcoin, VC
- 17:14nonsense that we've been living through
- 17:17for over almost a decade. And if you
- 17:19look around Token 2049, you probably can
- 17:21spot the absence of some very large
- 17:24layer ones that raised hundreds of
- 17:25millions of dollars last year, threw the
- 17:27best parties, had the best booth and are
- 17:30no longer here.
- 17:32Why? Because of the way they issued
- 17:34their token.
- 17:36They sold it to investors. They sold it
- 17:37to retail, pre-sold it.
- 17:40And then, when the cliff happened, what
- 17:43did people do?
- 17:44They sold it. And so, if you bought it
- 17:45in the secondary market there was
- 17:47somebody on top of you who had a much
- 17:49better price, who's incentivized to
- 17:51liquidate their holdings. This created
- 17:53down only. This is why there's so many
- 17:56people who are down on altcoins. They're
- 17:58like, "Oh, it's all just [ __ ] because
- 18:00the charts are all down 95%."
- 18:03But that's because of the way these
- 18:04things were funded.
- 18:06So, at Flop, we went back to Bitcoin.
- 18:08Again, what's the goal? Everyone who
- 18:10uses and participates in the Flop
- 18:11network should get something and we all
- 18:13should participate at the same price.
- 18:16Participation equals token generation.
- 18:20And so, we thought, okay, let's think
- 18:21about Bitcoin.
- 18:23We'll do a pre-mine to get enough
- 18:24currency in the hands of people to test
- 18:26the network. So, we're giving away 25%
- 18:29of the 10-year supply in an airdrop
- 18:31starting later in October. If you mine,
- 18:34if you validate, if your agent just uses
- 18:36the network, uses the free computer
- 18:38available during testnet, everyone is
- 18:40eligible to receive airdrop tokens.
- 18:42There is no pre-sale. I'm not selling
- 18:44anything other than an idea on this
- 18:46stage.
- 18:48It's only successful if we all make it
- 18:49successful.
- 18:52So right now, obviously I'm on stage
- 18:54shilling flop awareness building. I gave
- 18:56an AMA yesterday which had some great
- 18:58questions.
- 19:00We are doing our internal devnet right
- 19:03now of the network,
- 19:05testing it out, making sure everything,
- 19:06you know, works as per the yellow paper
- 19:08that's posted on the internet.
- 19:10Our testnet, which is a 90-day period
- 19:13where again, if you mine, if you
- 19:15validate, if all your agent does is use
- 19:17the network, you become eligible for
- 19:19flop tokens.
- 19:21Runs for 90 days. We are stress testing
- 19:23the network, making sure it can handle
- 19:25the volume of payments commensurate with
- 19:27an agentic economy of millions,
- 19:29billions, and trillions of agents.
- 19:33Hopefully we do a good job in testnet
- 19:34and if there's not too many things that
- 19:35need to be fixed,
- 19:37but the first quarter of next year is
- 19:39when Genesis block launches.
- 19:42This will be just like another Bitcoin
- 19:44type proof of work, we call it proof of
- 19:46useful inference situation.
- 19:48The only way to acquire flop tokens
- 19:51is to mine them or buy them from a
- 19:53miner. I'm not selling anything. Just
- 19:55want to make that entirely clear. And
- 19:56then when the heat death of the universe
- 19:58happens, hopefully the flop network is
- 20:00the most valuable thing ever created.
- 20:04So, the few minutes that I have left is
- 20:06now or never. I'm sure, you know, many
- 20:08people are here talking about their
- 20:09project, but at a high level, why should
- 20:12we be excited about flop, about
- 20:14hyperliquid, about Ethereum, about
- 20:16Bitcoin?
- 20:17It's because the macro has turned.
- 20:20Obviously it's been a rough sort of 1
- 20:22year. Last October, we were at all-time
- 20:24highs, 120 something thousand on
- 20:26Bitcoin.
- 20:28Dropped to about 58,000. Everyone was
- 20:30like, "Oh, I you know, I I came to Doka
- 20:322049. You know, finally after hearing
- 20:35this Bitcoin thing for 10 years, I get
- 20:37in, I buy some Bitcoin, and oh [ __ ] my
- 20:40shit's down. And Nvidia is up 10%, you
- 20:42know, 10x or SK Hynix is up 10x or S you
- 20:46know, Sandisk, whatever, right? Pick
- 20:47your AI stonk and it was up 10 to 100x.
- 20:50Yet, Bitcoin is down 50%." So, people
- 20:53are like, "This is [ __ ] [ __ ] I'm
- 20:55exiting the industry, yada yada yada,
- 20:57right?" But, now the tide has turned.
- 21:00We've seen the first wobble in the AI
- 21:03story with sort of the sell-off in Korea
- 21:06in June of this year.
- 21:09And now, every day, there are new
- 21:11reports of the massive amount of money
- 21:14that must be raised in the AI ecosystem.
- 21:17Yet,
- 21:18the three leading companies,
- 21:20SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic,
- 21:24not a single one of them make money.
- 21:27We are not willing to pay a price
- 21:29commensurate with their cost to deliver
- 21:31this product to us.
- 21:34Now, obviously, I'm launching something
- 21:35in AI space. Why am I so excited about
- 21:37that?
- 21:39This overbuild of data centers to the
- 21:40tune of trillions of dollars, I think
- 21:42next year it's supposed to be a trillion
- 21:43dollars of capex,
- 21:44is creating the environment to
- 21:46oversupply the market with compute.
- 21:49And if we have cheap compute, we get
- 21:51more agents. We can do more with agents.
- 21:54The Facebook $100 a month becomes a
- 21:56dollar a month because compute is so
- 21:57cheap. Agents are so useful to us. The
- 22:00types of tasks that agents do
- 22:03better our lives more because they're
- 22:06more complex, because compute is
- 22:08cheaper. So, the AI bubble bursting,
- 22:10which will make money on the bailout,
- 22:12and will make money as compute gets
- 22:14cheaper, and agentic solutions are
- 22:16useful,
- 22:17is a perfect situation for the flop
- 22:20network.
- 22:21And finally, unfortunately, I don't have
- 22:22time to give this presentation. Maybe
- 22:23I'll write an essay about it.
- 22:25Uh France is on fire and I think this is
- 22:28going to be the straw that breaks the
- 22:30camel's back and gets the printer to go
- 22:32burr in overdrive. Thank you very much
- 22:34everybody.
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