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Are Rates and Breadth Warning About a Bankpocalypse Crash — Transcript

by Jordi Visser · 10,588 words · 1,510 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00back for another week. Um, this is a
0:04long one in terms of slides. So, I'm not
0:06going to spend a lot of time on any one
0:08slide. Uh, just to make sure that I can
0:10do this hopefully in uh, less than an
0:13hour. So, this is the speed round. So,
0:15you guys can pause here and go look at
0:17the agenda for the week if you would
0:18like. Uh, in terms of disclosures, I
0:21really want you to highlight on this. Um
0:23I appreciate all the subscribers that
0:25are reaching out and are thanking me for
0:27the educational side what they're
0:28learning particularly as we move into
0:30something critical that very few people
0:32understand which is personal AI agents
0:35from the consumer agent side it is a
0:37need for everyone to use them and at the
0:39same time the educational side on the
0:41crypto which is going to become as in my
0:43opinion the people that spend the time
0:45on it now today for the next two months
0:47are going to have a huge advantage from
0:49an investment standpoint over the course
0:50of the next year. It was a big week for
0:53me in terms of putting things up for the
0:55subscribers. This I put up 13 different
0:58things including three. This will be the
0:59third video. Uh for those of you who get
1:02the video, subscribers get it with no
1:04ads. Not that that's a reason that you
1:05should subscribe to it, but um doing all
1:08of this and kind of going through it to
1:10make sure that the education side is
1:12accelerating is because of the crypto
1:14launch, but also because consumer agents
1:16happen at the same time. So there's a
1:18new report up on consumer agents there
1:20because I believe this is as important
1:22as what we went through in November of
1:24last year with Opus 4.5 in the beginning
1:26of the enterprise agents from a token
1:28perspective. Uh bonds and breath the
1:33main story. I did a subscriber video
1:35this week. Uh if you didn't see it you
1:38should go to the site and pull it down.
1:40The slide deck is there. I do that for
1:42all the subscriber videos which means
1:44you can just go through it. I go through
1:45the history of bond yields. Uh this is
1:48being over dramatic. I'm going to go
1:50through the reasons why. I'm not going
1:52to take you on the same journey as I did
1:54in the subscriber one. I'm going to have
1:55some of the same slides, but I want to
1:57make sure you you you go through this.
1:59When you see rates moving up and you
2:02have breath moving down, not only does
2:04that make perfect sense, but it is
2:07insane to me that people are sitting
2:10there saying that this is going to be
2:12like the.com bubble. So, I'm going to
2:14take you through a the reasons why this
2:16is different, b what things in the
2:18market you can look for for what will
2:20warn you. Having lived and traded
2:22through this when I was already an
2:24experienced person, I was running the
2:25S&P options book for Morgan Stanley
2:27during the do-com bubble, writing an S&P
2:30side on it. I've been through all of
2:31this. This is not the same thing. First
2:34of all, for everyone who's too young and
2:36for everyone who's too stubborn, uh,
2:38from the great financial crisis, Lehman
2:41Brothers right here, to basically the
2:43normalization of Fed rates after COVID,
2:46here's what happened. We had basically a
2:49lost 14-year period where we had
2:51negative yielding bonds. Negative
2:53yielding bonds, something that is not
2:55possible. We had negative yielding
2:57bonds. So, this period should not count
2:59when you're looking at a chart. What is
3:01happening now? If it was this, no one
3:04would care. But because we're doing this
3:06with this, everyone freaks out, which is
3:08just insane to me. So they start writing
3:10things like, "This is going to take down
3:11the world. You've never seen this
3:13before. We have too much debt." As of
3:16right now, we are not even in the
3:18midpoint of a normal range for when
3:20nominal GDP is where it is today.
3:22Nominal GDP is about 6.5%.
3:25We should be probably closer to seven. I
3:29will start worrying about bonds at least
3:31from being a long-term problem if we
3:34start getting above seven in a major
3:36way. It does matter as it goes higher.
3:39Certain parts of the market starts to
3:41underperform, but those parts of the
3:42market have been underperforming for
3:44years as I'm going to highlight. This is
3:46why it's a different economy. So, I'm
3:48not going to go through every single
3:50thing here, but I do want you to pay
3:51attention to this part if no other.
3:54pause and go through every single thing
3:56or go watch the subscriber video. The
4:01technology sector including Alphabet,
4:04Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta
4:06and Tesla which are in different sectors
4:08and not in the technology. They were
4:11just barely above 10% and the great
4:14financial crisis as a waiting.
4:17They're now 56%.
4:20This is the main reason why rates don't
4:23matter compared to back then. So again,
4:26these companies did not take debt during
4:29that period. These companies are not
4:31based on it. Yes, they're taking debt
4:33now, but it doesn't matter as I go
4:35through this why it doesn't matter. Uh
4:37the main point is the economy has
4:38changed dramatically since then purely
4:40from that basis. And if you don't
4:41believe me, in 2015, so not at the great
4:45financial crisis for GM and the four
4:48main the four major homebuilders, they
4:51had revenues of 333 billion in 2015.
4:55They have 432 for a kagger of just 2.4%.
5:00They've been sucking wind for the last
5:02however many years. This is what Nvidian
5:04Micron had in revenues combined those
5:05years, 21 billion. Here's Nvidian Micron
5:08now 535 billion. These names deserve to
5:12go down when rates go higher. They need
5:14rates to go down. It should not be a
5:17surprise. These companies are, it's not
5:20even a comparison how small they are.
5:22Their market cap is is smaller than the
5:24revenue. There's nothing to talk about
5:26in this. It's a joke. When you add in
5:30Google, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft,
5:32that's another 2.4
5:34trillion, not in market cap, in
5:37revenues.
5:39Here's where they were back then. It was
5:41actually comparable to some degree. This
5:43is a completely different economy.
5:46Anyone that is going before 2015 and
5:48telling you what happened before then
5:50because rates went higher is comparing
5:52it to a time that doesn't exist. If you
5:54don't believe me there, here are the
5:55estimates
5:57for next year's earnings or revenues for
5:59Nvidia. This is where they're going to
6:01finish this year. So 410 to 700, let's
6:03just round it to 300 billion in delta.
6:07That's the increase that is expected and
6:10that is based off what Jensen Yuang
6:12already said. You know the number is
6:13going to be above it. So we're talking
6:16about equal to the entire revenues for
6:19the year for these companies for this
6:22year. That's how much Nvidia is going to
6:25increase next year. So when you're
6:27listening to people tell you this, I'm
6:29telling you this is a fact. strategists
6:31who called for a broadening out this
6:33year are not admitting that they were
6:35wrong and they're hoping that the market
6:38crashes so they can get bailed out. This
6:41is not a guess from me. I've seen this.
6:43I've jumped into X a couple times this
6:46week because I find it insane that
6:48people are not realizing that the market
6:51cap has changed. 78 companies make up
6:5456%
6:55of the market. And these companies are
6:58nonyclical. They are not hurt by rates
7:02moving from 5% to 5.3. There are a lot
7:06of old economy names, not the digital
7:08economy, the old economy names that are
7:11basically getting taken out. If you
7:13don't believe me, financial conditions
7:14is something every macro strategist
7:16talks about. From 1971 to 1999, this is
7:20the fitting of what would happen if
7:21rates went higher. Financial conditions
7:23would tighten. Here's what's happened
7:26since then.
7:28No change. It doesn't matter. This is
7:31from 2010 to 2026.
7:34You want to see it broken out? The 70s
7:36rates went higher. Tightening in the
7:38market. Rates went higher. Financial
7:40conditions. It's not just it's been
7:42going on since the launch of the
7:44computer. So, this is something that's
7:46been happening. If you want to say how
7:47big the number is, sometimes you just
7:49got to put it into perspective. Here is
7:51the combination of year-over-year change
7:53in 10ear yields plus Fed funds looking
7:56back over history. So, this is the
7:58rolling one-year change in basis points.
8:00Does this really look scary? When you're
8:02comparing this to 2022, which I will
8:04repeat, this did not turn into a
8:06recession. That should be a signal that
8:07you shouldn't be worried about rates
8:09here. Look, boom. Did we have Silicon
8:12Valley Bank end up in trouble here? And
8:13everyone likes to jump on, oh, let's add
8:15that to the mix. That wasn't a blip on
8:18anything. It didn't change economics. It
8:20didn't change anything. So, why is
8:22Breath weakening? Well, we had the yield
8:24curve basically flattening, which is the
8:27rates way of saying there's more higher
8:30probability of recession, but really
8:32this is just a representation of rates
8:34moving higher because this was
8:36unfortunately for the market a bare
8:38flattener. So, we had rates going up
8:39across the curve. They were just going
8:41up faster in the short end because we
8:42were building in more expectations of
8:44Fed rate hikes. Well, that changed
8:47dramatically this week because John
8:49Williams came out and basically said no
8:51hike in October. We got a weaker PCE and
8:54then we got weaker payroll data. So,
8:57breath at some point maybe it'll
9:00stabilize. I'm not saying expect Breath
9:02to get much better, but maybe when we
9:04get through earnings and companies start
9:06talking how they're not seeing the
9:07dramatic change, I think that's when
9:09you'll go because this is a one
9:10correlation move amongst it. I'll show
9:12that too. NDX over the S&P.
9:16Everyone who bail, you know, has been
9:18worried about the AI trade. Well, NDX
9:19over S&P is going higher. This is the
9:21relationship to the S&P. Basically,
9:24we've been consolidating now in the S&P
9:26really since June when the AI trade
9:28broke down and now we're rebuilding it.
9:30And at some point here, I would expect
9:32us to go higher. Here's the thing to
9:34watch. So, as I mentioned during my time
9:37during the dotcom bubble, this is what
9:40was going on with staples over the S&P.
9:43So, as you had breath going down, guess
9:45what was going on? People were rotating
9:47away from
9:50the stuff that was risky and they were
9:52moving it into the safe names. So, it
9:55moved in here. But that's not just it.
9:58Staples over the S&P remained incredibly
10:01strong for a long time. We are basically
10:04now going through where tech had a hard
10:06time during this period. This is all
10:08during the doc the the iPhone side. So
10:13staples over the S&P held in and
10:15everyone was wondering how this was
10:17possible. And the reason was because we
10:18had negative yielding debt. And so
10:21instead of buying bonds, you would buy
10:22staples or utilities. Well, now Staples
10:25versus S&P is making new lows.
10:28You don't believe me? Here's the breath
10:31from 20 2008 to 2023. And basically
10:35anytime we had a a breath selloff, which
10:38is the white line, you'd have staples
10:41falling relative or you've had staples
10:43rallying versus the S&P. So this is
10:45inverted. So again, I I I don't know how
10:48to say this uh enough for you guys. Uh
10:51when we get to a point where there's
10:54something to worry about with breath,
10:56you're going to see people rotating into
10:58defensives. I've shown this before. I
11:00showed this on a subscriber video.
11:02financials relative to utilities. So
11:04banks have been very weak. I'm going to
11:05go through the banks because they're
11:06going to have a bank apocalypse uh just
11:08like SAS did and I think we're in the
11:10early stages of something that'll be
11:12probably a Q1 story. Um financials
11:15relative to utilities when this is going
11:18higher this means growth is good because
11:20banks which are interest rate sensitive
11:22and certainly get hurt with credit
11:24problems. People rotate into utilities.
11:27So this is a rate situation. Now, equal
11:31weight tech. We keep hearing how equal
11:33weight's getting destroyed. No, it's
11:34not. Equal weight tech made a new
11:36all-time high today. Uh, equal weight
11:38tech relative to equal weight S&P, which
11:42has been going down. Again, these things
11:44are correlated. So, eventually we'll go
11:46higher. Tom Mlen basically going through
11:49the new highs, new lows. This is
11:51typically a bottoming sign for the
11:52market. So, is that the way we should
11:55look at it? Well, I think so because
11:58look who is making all the new lows. So,
12:00this is from the compound and friends.
12:03Uh, big shout out to them because I
12:05thought this was a great way of breaking
12:06it down and I listen to those guys a
12:08lot. Um, chartkidmatt.com.
12:12You can go get his charts on there. But
12:14basically showing that staples seeing a
12:17spike in new lows, utilities having a
12:19massive spike in new lows. Tech no spike
12:23in new lows. Financials news that's a
12:25good growth sign. Um that's how oversold
12:28we were. So if you take a 14-day RSI of
12:31breath going back to 1999, actually we
12:34have data back to 2004. This blue line
12:37here is 25. So, I wanted to go back and
12:40look and see, well, how do these things
12:43do when we hit those levels? Okay. Well,
12:46here's all the times that the RSI the
12:48day it hit or broke below 25. So, this
12:51date, you guys can go back and go look
12:53the date that we broke it. Here are the
12:56hit rates going forward. These are the
12:58returns going forward. Again, I think
13:01when you look at this stuff and you see
13:03that breath is usually a bottoming sign,
13:06uh, rather than something negative, and
13:09in particular, if you just go look kind
13:11of at the course of the last whatever
13:13years, aside from the great financial
13:15crisis, you're heavily skewed on the
13:17six-month performance to the upside. Uh,
13:20this is the reason why strategists are
13:23bearish. when you make an outlook call
13:25at the beginning of the year and you
13:26call for a broadening out trade. I've
13:27watched a lot of ex people be bragging
13:29because they were long Europe short the
13:32US. All of these different things. Well,
13:34that's completely unwind now because
13:35rates and oil have gone higher and the
13:36weak have been basically
13:38underperforming. But also the AI trade
13:40continues to defy the doubters. This red
13:43line here is chat GPT. This is equal
13:46weight S&P relative to S&P. You are
13:48talking to someone who believes that all
13:50equities are vulnerable over the course
13:52of the next 5 years. But first, we have
13:53to get rid of all of the small
13:55businesses that don't supply the
13:57infrastructure for AI. Yes, I will
13:59repeat it. We need to get rid of all the
14:01businesses. They are being replaced by
14:03AI native businesses, which is I why I
14:05reach out to you to sign up for my
14:07service to at a minimum get your kids to
14:10be using AI. I think I've had a good hit
14:12ratio now with college kids and my son
14:14in particular with using the tools that
14:17I'm showing and how to think about it
14:18because most of the video I put together
14:20is done with AI. So here is equal weight
14:23versus capweight S&P correlated to the
14:27ISM. So when we got this move higher, we
14:31were supposed to get a bounce which we
14:32did. Now if rates had stayed low, I
14:35think this trade would have continued
14:36for at least the rest of the year. But
14:38because rates in oil, and this is what
14:40sent it down first was oil. Then we got
14:42the bounce back up, but then we got the
14:44rate problem and the oil problem. It
14:46makes perfect logical sense. But those
14:48names don't matter to the economy.
14:52BKX close below the 200 day moving
14:55average. Um, like I said, I think
14:58there's a bank apocalypse that is
15:00starting just like I talked about a SAS
15:02apocalypse beginning in the third
15:05quarter of last year or the fourth
15:07quarter. By the fourth quarter, I was
15:08talking about the fact that the agents
15:10were here. Well, we have another agent
15:12move which is personal agents which get
15:13into crypto which I'll go through. But
15:16we had our first kind of viral thing
15:19that Torston Sllock sent out this week
15:22basically talking about how agents will
15:24make the logical decision to move money
15:26and take away the fees that are on
15:28yields. That is just one part of the
15:30agentic side. Um I believe and again I'm
15:34putting all of this in there that you
15:35will be living and I believe this is
15:38true and I'll be talking about Joseph
15:40Chalum. I'll give you guys some
15:41homework.
15:43But over the course of the last three
15:44weeks, I've had multiple conversations
15:45with people about Mastercard and Visa,
15:47and they are trying to defend those
15:49companies. I see zero chance that these
15:51companies are going to benefit in the
15:53long run. It's not that they won't
15:54benefit today and maybe for the next two
15:56years. A bank apocalypse is not about
15:58them going out of business, but a bank
16:00apocalypse is about gradually, just like
16:02it was with Agentic Coding. We get
16:05multiple compression. The software names
16:07are still making money. We've had a
16:09bounce in a lot of them. They are not
16:11out of the woods. I do not see them as
16:13being anything but on a perma bare
16:17market invaluation. And I think banks
16:20are now going to go through the same
16:21thing as I highlight here is what has
16:24happened since crypto or since uh we got
16:28the release of Grockbot.
16:30This is the my 46 token index which is
16:34the crypto ecosystem relative to the BKX
16:39going down going down bare market then
16:42all of a sudden we get the bounce
16:44instinct AI launches their beta version
16:46then we get Muse the crypto rails this
16:48is the way I go through things guys I
16:50bring you facts on what's happening when
16:52they started and try to connect them
16:54back two-year rates during that period
16:57have gone straight up normally crypto
16:59gets thought of in liquidity terms. I've
17:01debated everyone in Bitcoin about the
17:04debasement trade and liquidity as being
17:07the story. It certainly started the move
17:10when we got Bessant coming in in in
17:13August, but then we got Worsh moving
17:15higher. So, you've had a change, but
17:17here's the thing that matters. Cryptos
17:19held in there while rates have gone
17:21higher and not a little bit. We brought
17:23in Fed rate hikes, multiple ones. Here's
17:25the way gold reacted. So, gold broke
17:27down. If this was the basement then
17:30Bitcoin would have followed it. The
17:31crypto side would have followed it. The
17:32reason it's not following it is because
17:34we have a different stage. We have the
17:35agents coming.
17:37Clearly Bessant wants rates to go lower
17:40or at least to do something different.
17:42So I think the Zervos higher was
17:44absolutely uh another warning shot about
17:47hey we don't want rates to get higher.
17:48We don't know how we're going to get
17:49them down. We're going to do something.
17:51Then you get John Williams coming out.
17:53There's no need for urgency. Then you
17:55have the buyback in terms of getting the
17:57six billion. You get the reaction day
17:59one and then of course it turns the
18:01other direction. Um here's where we are
18:04for the week with all of that going on.
18:05The S&P continues to have a beautiful
18:07looking breakout chart at some point
18:09consolidating these gains. While the
18:11breath has been horrible. I showed you
18:12the oversold signal. The fact that the
18:15breath has been so weak, rates went up
18:18and now we've had a situation where
18:20we're going to have a pause on this
18:22stuff. So, I think at some point here
18:25we're going to break higher, especially
18:26since the NDX made new all-time highs
18:28today. And that chart looks very similar
18:30to the S&P. It just looks like it broke
18:31out. Equal weight uh tech, same thing.
18:35Here's the frustration for people. I
18:37hear this from many, many macro
18:38podcasts. They want a trend. There's no
18:41trend. This is copper. Obvious trade.
18:43Can't make any money. I already showed
18:44you gold. Can't make money. Everyone who
18:46had the anti- I want to be long crypto
18:49or AI trades. That's the problem, guys.
18:51If you've been fading crypto and saying
18:53I want to be long gold, I don't want to
18:54be long crypto. Sorry, you're losing. If
18:56you said, I want to be long uh
18:58commodities because this is the trade
19:01for both the debasing side, but it's
19:03also the trade for uh the buildout, the
19:06infrastructure side. That's not working.
19:09Nobody wants to be long the AI stuff
19:11because they're scared. Here's the
19:12dollar. Pain, pain, pain, pain. I mean,
19:16basically a year of pain.
19:18And yet, here's the AI trade. Started
19:21here, consolidation, everyone freaks
19:23out. We get situational awareness, and
19:25now we're just going right back to the
19:27same old story. Um, my constant. So,
19:30that was my 100name portfolio. Here is
19:33the 10 name concentrated one. I just
19:35wanted to show you guys like it worked
19:38almost every day, came back, and since
19:40then, it's gone right back up, and it's
19:43now up 106% for the year. State of the
19:46Markets from Andre Horowitz in terms of
19:49AI. Definitely worth the read. I'm only
19:51going to show you some of the slides. If
19:54you're long the tech earnings,
19:58I mean, this is pretty much what I was
19:59showing you guys, but like this is what
20:01you want to be long, not call it a
20:03bubble. You call it a bubble and you go,
20:04I've seen this before with the dot
20:06bubble, you're paying the price. Because
20:07I've been hearing that now for two
20:08years. I can bring up the videos that I
20:10was doing in 24 or 25. Yeah, 24. And
20:13show you guys the bubble talk. Here's
20:15what you're investing in if you're
20:16playing for anything but that. This is
20:18the reason Breath is so bad is because
20:20the earnings are just not there for home
20:22builders and autos and staples which are
20:24getting disrupted by AI especially as
20:27people are going to live longer. They
20:29have OMIC. Every single trade is a
20:32disruption trade. The alpha is on
20:33shorting the 440, not being
20:38ignoring the fact that they're going
20:39down and thinking it's going to take the
20:40entire economy down. um reports of
20:43obsolescence on chips. So, every time
20:45you hear someone talk about GPUs, and
20:47this is all through uh I guess two weeks
20:50ago, every single chip from Nvidia
20:54continues. There's supposed to be in
20:56decline, guys. When it once it comes
20:58out, it's like a car. It's supposed to
21:00depreciate because there's a better one
21:02the next day. This is what they talked
21:04about in terms of the opportunities
21:06coming up. The reason I want to show
21:07this, more tokens, more tokens, more
21:10tokens, more tokens. Every one of these
21:14means a lot more tokens.
21:17And then we get Micron this week.
21:20Everyone wants to fade Micron. the
21:22amount of crap I got when I said I
21:24bought started buying it back in the
21:26800s from people and I said I wanted to
21:29be involved because I thought it would
21:30go higher over the course of the next
21:32year and I was prepared to build a
21:34sizable position if we went back towards
21:36500. Uh but we never did. We just sat
21:40there. It's not a huge position for me.
21:42It's not as big as Marll or Nvidia, but
21:45I'm still in it and it's not as big as
21:47crypto. But I mean the revenue jumps
21:4911fold as you go through.
21:53We do not see line of sight when supply
21:56catches up with demand because the
21:57demand trends of larger models, growing
21:59context, more concurrency, greater
22:01agents across enterprise and consumer
22:04only continue to drive greater need for
22:05memory.
22:08AI is moving to the edge.
22:11Physical embodied AI. They're seeing
22:13their first deployment of physical AI
22:15and autonomous vehicles. Why does it
22:18consume so much memory? The magnitude of
22:21the increase, the human. These are all
22:23quotes from the earnings call. You're
22:26crazy if you don't believe that the
22:28compute needs are growing. Another part
22:30of the 100 thematic infrastructure
22:33portfolio is a company called Rogers in
22:36the chemical side. I think it's a really
22:38important one. They had an investor day.
22:41So, it wasn't earnings, it was an
22:42investor day, and they took their
22:45numbers up. This was a step up function,
22:47a massive move. Um, basically from $3 to
22:5114. So when you go through this, and I'm
22:54not going to read all of these because
22:56again, this is a long thing I've got
22:57here. We're getting into Reuben time
23:00where everything is about efficiency and
23:02watts, which is why Marllin,
23:05go look what these names did this week.
23:08Our internal target is higher than that
23:10in terms of what they're talking about
23:13in needs. Here is for you guys the
23:17because it was a step up and I love
23:18stepups. And then I go, well, if they're
23:20stepping up and they're having supply
23:22issues, there's tons of places to go
23:24look. Here you go. For those of you who
23:26are not subscribers, don't say I didn't
23:28give you anything without subscribing.
23:30There's a bunch of names on here that
23:32you guys can go look at. These are the
23:35names that connect back to Rogers on the
23:39work that I've done over the course of
23:40the last two years in my writings. So
23:43all I do for those of you who are
23:44subscribers whenever this happens upload
23:47all of my work that you have saved or
23:49just put it in one folder in anywhere
23:52have co-work go into the folder and only
23:55use that data and go out of the hundred
23:57names take what Rogers did and connect
23:59it back and show me what'll have an
24:01important side. So again the packing
24:03compl the power density the heat density
24:05we're starting to get into the point
24:07where heat matters. Most great
24:10investments begin in discomfort. This is
24:12when we start to segue to the consumer
24:13agents and into crypto. Um,
24:19I basically included this part. So, this
24:21is from Howard Marx. Um, and I wanted to
24:24show this just because last year when I
24:27was writing about inference and talking
24:29about Micron,
24:31the push back I got was again the
24:34discomfort people had. Part of it was
24:35tariffs, but part of it was believing AI
24:37was a bubble. So every time you say AI
24:39is a bubble, you've been wrong and it's
24:41cost you dramatically. So we have a new
24:44inflection point here. So tokens grew
24:47dramatically because of inference,
24:48because of memory, and now we're getting
24:50into consumer agents, which I'm selling
24:52you is more demand because we're now
24:54going to have 8 billion people over the
24:57course of the next five years using
24:58personal. It's going to be on your
25:01phone. Everyone has a phone. They're
25:03going to have it. Muse is free. So when
25:07I use Muse, the amount of tokens I'm
25:09using between Grock and Muse is far
25:11bigger than any month I've ever used. So
25:13if you're not using them, great. But I'm
25:16already causing demand issues. This is a
25:18paper I wrote in May 15th of 2025. The
25:21inference inflection, where real time AI
25:23meets real time opportunity. I want you
25:25to read this. While everyone was busy
25:27debating tariffs, AI inference quietly
25:28had its breakout moment. While markets
25:30fixated on trade headlines and the daily
25:33churn of social media noise, think rates
25:36and breath, a far more important macro
25:38trend was again meaning momentum. You
25:40missed AI because of this. Then in June,
25:45the firework shows over. One of the
25:47hardest things for investors to
25:48recognize during an exponential
25:49technological transition is the
25:51difference between new information and
25:52delayed understanding. The Agentic AI
25:55buildout has just begun. And the reason
25:56I want to show this, since that period,
25:58there's been no money to make in AI.
26:00Now, I'm not saying Micron's not going
26:02to continue to make you money, but you
26:04had to go through a 700 point fall, 50%
26:07fall in the stock, and I think it might
26:11go up from the peak another whatever it
26:13was, it was a,000 back then. So, I when
26:17I wrote this paper, Micron was $98. When
26:21I wrote this paper, it was over 1,000.
26:25You don't get windows to wait. So now
26:28I'm going to take you through the
26:29educational side. I have a lot of
26:30podcasts in here. For those of you who
26:32want to get smarter on the situation, go
26:35listen to them. Don't just take what my
26:37summary is in this video. Go listen.
26:39This young kid here is the founder of uh
26:43Instinct AI.
26:46The personal ra the founder argues we
26:48are entering the largest software race
26:49in history. Agents replace interfaces.
26:52Trust becomes everything. I'm going to
26:54emphasize trust again and again. This is
26:56the argument that people give for
26:57Mastercard and Visa. They are wrong,
26:59wrong, wrong. You want trust, you go to
27:02crypto, you go to cryptography, you go
27:04to instant settlement. I will show you
27:06why. You are wrong if you believe trust
27:08in the system is there. It takes time.
27:10And this kid explains trust, not
27:12intelligence, is presented as the
27:14biggest bottleneck. And that's because
27:16of stubborn thinkers. users gradually
27:18provide more permissions as confidence
27:20builds, which means as they use it, they
27:23get less worried about the other issues.
27:25This will happen with crypto as well. It
27:27will take time. Everything takes time.
27:29But when you say this is the way people
27:31trust, I will show you times where I've
27:33heard this before and it came to bite
27:35people big time. Attention economy
27:37versus the agent economy. This is
27:39important for people who think that Meta
27:41and these other places are going to win.
27:44I think this is going to be a feeding
27:45frenzy. The Mag 7 used to have their own
27:48lanes. Now they're going to be fighting
27:50with each other over the same TAM. I
27:52think it is very very difficult because
27:53it's going to depend on what you're
27:55comfortable with and where you spend
27:56your attention. And that's why the
27:57attention economy which is where we've
27:59had the Mag 7 in different verticals now
28:02we're going to have it harder and the
28:04agent economy is very very different and
28:06businesses must adapt. He talks about
28:07that product design is becoming
28:09psychology and that's what I mean. It's
28:12becoming something that is very very
28:14challenging uh to deal with. I'm moving
28:16away from being with my phone because
28:18Muse is sending me things during the day
28:20multiple multiple times. I can't even
28:22tell you how many things I get on Muse
28:24all day long. The compute problem. This
28:26is one of the most interesting parts.
28:28Exponential compute demand. User growth
28:30compounds daily while proactive agents
28:32require constant background reasoning.
28:34Meaning compute demand scales much
28:36faster than traditional applications.
28:38The founder explains why buying GPUs
28:40becomes extraordinarily difficult.
28:42Infrastructure lead times stretch
28:44months. This is the most important part
28:47in there. He's telling you how difficult
28:50the compute side is.
28:53They already have 1 billion annualized
28:55transaction volume. Think about that.
28:57We're at the point where commerce is
28:59happening. 50% of that volume is travel.
29:02He goes through the daily user growth.
29:04Look at these numbers. 10 10 to 11%.
29:06Again, it's early, but it's fine. 40%
29:09remember that trust thing. Give Instinct
29:11a personal credit card within 3 weeks.
29:1480% retention after connecting sensitive
29:17information. The amount of compute that
29:18you need access to is now doubling
29:21effectively
29:22every week.
29:25So,
29:26it's going to be an order of magnitude
29:28more than what we thought we needed.
29:31They're different than coding agents. It
29:33becomes a new source of compute demand.
29:36I'm not going to read the whole thing
29:37anymore, but basically, no matter how
29:39you take it, guys, if you haven't
29:41increased your memory needs, I want to
29:43bring you back to something that I've
29:45shown you that Goldman Sachs put out.
29:46I've shown it for months. We are in the
29:48first, yes, the first inning of of of
29:51token consumption. So, whatever silly
29:54things you're looking about about
29:55overall spend and all these things and
29:57going through it, you're missing it.
30:00Remember, and I saw this today, I didn't
30:02include it in the video, but the total
30:05revenue this year for OpenAI and
30:07Anthropic combined, which is going to be
30:09about a hundred billion dollars
30:11combined, not the ARR, but their actual
30:14revenue is going to be greater than the
30:16entire
30:18software sector.
30:20So again, when you go through this and
30:22you start thinking this money is coming
30:24from somewhere. So people that thought
30:25that the only TAM that they would get
30:28would be on the software side, the
30:31increase this year is bigger than what
30:32the increase is for the rest of
30:34software. They're taking it from other
30:36places for sure. Meta expands Muse to
30:38small businesses. OpenAI launches dots.
30:41So they've got their first competitor.
30:44Grockbot now connects to your finances,
30:47your bank card, investment accounts, new
30:49finance. Again, thank crypto. Why didn't
30:52Google build Muse? It is kind of amazing
30:55that Google has fallen so far behind in
30:57terms of getting stuff out. Uh this is
31:00just another thing that came out this
31:02week in terms of another product. This
31:04is called FO. Uh just more agents uh
31:07personal AI bots will blow the everyday
31:09tech user away in the next few months.
31:12In the past month, we've noticed the
31:13usefulness of these bots has gone off
31:15the charts. I completely agree. And
31:17that's the thing that I mentioned in
31:19last week's video, uh, which was how
31:21much things changed from the Zuckerberg
31:24town hall to that. So, because this is
31:27an important point and because I wanted
31:29to take it in, I did put on the website
31:32a 25page report. Now, this report is
31:35using all of the research I already did.
31:37It's taking the hundred names that are
31:39in my basket and basically going through
31:40and showing you like I did with Rogers,
31:42but now from the entire thing who
31:45benefits from personal assistance, edge
31:48AI, embodied AI in a step-up function.
31:51So, it's not changing the enterprise
31:53benefits. It's just saying how will this
31:55impact the other names because this will
31:59add to their earnings going forward. So,
32:02I go through the difference between the
32:04two of them. There's a lot of parts in
32:06this and because it's coming out so
32:08fast, I think it's important for you
32:09guys to go spend the time. Smartphones,
32:11AIPCs, wearables, smart home. We are in
32:14the agentic physical AI side because you
32:18have to remember agent swarms mean the
32:20technology is good enough for agents,
32:23which means we're getting closer to
32:25humanoids, to FSD, to all of that. So,
32:28start pushing those. Whatever you
32:30thought the time period was, they're
32:32coming faster. the two names that come
32:34out to give you an idea of the way this
32:36goes. So the direct side, the edge side,
32:38the cloud side, what is
32:41the ranking they get. So again, this is
32:44using um uh a new tool that I went
32:47through. So I'm doing this via the
32:50reports that I did. So the research is
32:52there any new stuff, but then I'm using
32:54Jev tool uh on this. The other thing I
32:57did, so this week there will be two
32:59weekly dashboards up for the hundred
33:01names. So you guys can start finding the
33:03names that you want to be involved in as
33:05the breath continues to increase and
33:07these names are going to many of them
33:09are going to go to all-time highs. Um I
33:11did a weekly one as well. I'm going to
33:13replace the one that I do each week with
33:15one that has weekly data as well. So as
33:18of now you can see for those of you who
33:20use it all of the stuff is the same but
33:22now there's weekly parts as well. I just
33:24want to highlight that because I know a
33:26lot of you have prompt set up and things
33:28like that. You bring it up. I take the
33:31the prompt that's there and explain to
33:34your LLM what's going on. Reach out to
33:37me if you have an issue, but both of
33:39them I'm uploading the weekly and the
33:41regular one. And then based on how
33:43people are doing with the weekly one,
33:45I'll just stay with the one. Um, this is
33:48the prompt that I'm bringing out. So, I
33:49put together an analyst prompt for this
33:52to basically help people that have just
33:55come on because a lot of crypto people
33:57have come on. You need to be on top of
33:59the AI side because they're connected.
34:00The reason I want crypto people to learn
34:02AI, it's going to make you smarter and
34:05feel more confident in crypto being in a
34:07bull market. Most crypto people have
34:08been involved have seen this before
34:10where they get a head fake and it goes
34:12right back to lows. I've heard this
34:13repeatedly. And for people who have a
34:14lot of money already in crypto that
34:16don't want to get involved, I understand
34:18if you already have money there, but
34:19start paying attention to not only the
34:21list of the names, but also the
34:23technical side of AI. It will match up
34:25and they're moving. Here's the breath
34:27number, the most recent one. So, the
34:2920-day, we've jumped up to 74.
34:32You can see it's the highest number
34:34since the peak. The 50-day is up at 69.
34:38Again, the highest number since the
34:40peak. You've now got a turn up, a
34:43decisive turn up in the above the 200
34:46day moving average. And the 50-day slope
34:48just jumped by seven points. So, we have
34:52now a good scenario. and the average to
34:55range V has continued to collapse. So we
34:59are 20% that's the average from the 52-
35:02week high. We still have 20% of room.
35:04This number to me is going to continue
35:05to fall like I've been talking about. Go
35:07through the list if you haven't used Jev
35:10yet. Absolutely use it. Absolutely load
35:12it up. Has been a magical thing for me.
35:15I'm not going to show you the output and
35:17what it is, but basically what I'm using
35:20Jev for is exactly it does a scoring
35:22system. It goes through everything. It
35:24is a It puts into the entire context
35:27into play. So, if you haven't spent time
35:30looking at it, I highly recommend
35:31figuring out how to get it connected to
35:33either Claude or Astra. You can do it.
35:36It's through an MCP. If you haven't done
35:38it yet, I highly recommend this is the
35:40analysis that it goes. So, use the Jev
35:42portfolio tool again and make sure this
35:44is incorporated into the analysis. So,
35:46this is with the Aentic consumer
35:48inflection report going through and
35:50giving me probabilities. the agentic
35:52regime strengthening 100% probability
35:55based on everything that it's seeing in
35:57terms of the data. So, and the biggest
36:00change it said was Qualcomm. So, that
36:02report uses Jev in there. For those of
36:05you have not had your kids on this video
36:07and have not subscribed and then got
36:09your kids subscribed, this is my son
36:12texting me this week when I asked when
36:14we started talking. We check in about
36:16what he's doing in AI and I was asking
36:17him how his internship or his co-op is
36:20doing. Um, I have literally enjoyed
36:23working here so much. I'm telling you,
36:25as someone who lives in Williamsburg
36:26with a bunch of people around the age of
36:28my son, so my son is 21, uh, he would be
36:31a junior in college, but he's doing this
36:33internship. The amount of people in
36:35their 20s who say I have literally
36:37enjoyed working here so much is close to
36:38zero. It is literally adapt or die,
36:42though. Whenever I have meetings and
36:43they are walking through a process, I'm
36:45always like, why on earth is this not
36:47already automated? That's why he's
36:49having a great time because he knows how
36:51to use AI. This is amazing. And the most
36:55proud moment I was is when I asked him,
36:58"Have you used Jev Tool yet?" He said,
37:00"Yeah." I said, "How could you have used
37:02it so far? It only came out a month
37:04ago." And he said, "I stay on the X all
37:06day long looking for the newest features
37:09that I can upload." Because he's already
37:11AI native. College has become less
37:14needed for him. He could already work
37:17and be doing phenomenal because he's
37:19able to do things that 99.9% of the
37:22people on the planet can't do. He's a
37:24finance major. He only had a Python boot
37:28camp which was like a oneweek thing that
37:30I gave him. Get your kids going. Have
37:32them watch this. It will inspire them.
37:34Trust me, I have a lot of them reaching
37:36out to me. Um,
37:38I want to bring up this guy. I spoke to
37:40Ilia
37:42uh Pulukin
37:44uh this week. amazing story. He was one
37:47of the Transformer 8, which is one of
37:49the eight co-authors on the Transformer
37:51paper that Google put out that allowed
37:54for Gen AI the way we see it today. So,
37:57I spoke to him because he's with this
37:59protocol near he's the founder. Um, very
38:02interesting story. I talked a good deal
38:05about it with Pomp. Uh,
38:08very impressed with the kid. He's a
38:10young guy, but obviously very smart.
38:12He's not as young as he was in the
38:13Transformer side, but NEAR is one of the
38:15tokens that I've mentioned. Uh, one of
38:17the ones I've invested in personally,
38:19but this episode with no priors is
38:21really what I wanted to mention as a
38:23segue here. This is important for you if
38:25you're a mutual fund, if you're a hedge
38:27fund, any asset manager. If you go
38:30listen to this episode, the reason it's
38:31important is because this was in 2023. I
38:35think it was May of 2023. No priors is a
38:38very good uh technology
38:42podcast and they talked to him. So
38:44here's someone who
38:47this is in the peak of now people being
38:49hired. I mean this guy worked on the
38:51transformer paper. He obviously could go
38:54to any one of the labs and yet he was
38:57working on Near and his story on what it
39:00is is amazing. So Near was set up and
39:03this is again 2023 this interview
39:06believing that the blockchain was an
39:08operating system for AI agents. He talks
39:11about all of this agentic side back in
39:132023. Again, ChachiBT had just been
39:15launched 6 months earlier. to listen to
39:18visionaries who have an AI background
39:21talk about how the blockchain is
39:23necessary and why he personally decided
39:27this was the best path for him to go to
39:29where he had left Google to do a coding
39:32agent company like open ai openai and
39:36anthropic you have to go listen to it if
39:38you're curious and want to learn Ily is
39:41the guy to go listen to from that this
39:43is the way it is if AI agents are
39:44equipped with a blockchain account they
39:46will become an economic agent that is
39:48able to pay other people as other people
39:51AIs do. He talked about this whole thing
39:53and it was his reason with his AI
39:56company that he decided this was a thing
39:58because he couldn't make payments to
39:59people around the world and the tested
40:02the blockchain and it wasn't ready. So
40:04he decided to go out and build an L1
40:08basically the infrastructure the
40:09internet necessary for the payment side
40:11to be ready for AI agents. It's a great
40:13story. It's worth listening to. He did a
40:16more recent one which was uh two weeks.
40:18Oh no, this was uh almost last week. I
40:21listened to him again and again again. I
40:22spoke to him this week uh on a call
40:24because I had spoken about them and it's
40:26very weird that the founders of
40:28companies will sit on the phone with
40:29you. That doesn't happen in public
40:31companies. But in private companies
40:32where they are just growing, this is the
40:35Peter Lynch thing. You get to talk to
40:37these people and find them before
40:38everyone else does. this John Gillan
40:41article uh interview with Tom Lee I'm
40:43going to reference again as I move
40:44forward
40:46the William Mugayar
40:48uh this is a podcast so I'm going to
40:50give you guys the subscribers all of
40:52these podcasts that I'm referencing the
40:54weekly podcast info will go out Sunday
40:56at 9:00 a.m. Look for it. This is the
41:00one to really go through. Almost all of
41:01them are related to crypto. But this is
41:03where your education begins. William is
41:05a brilliant guy. He was involved in
41:06Napster in the '9s. Then he got involved
41:08in Ethereum. He and I had a conversation
41:11as well this week. He has a new book
41:13coming out. He and I spoke because he
41:15also heard me talk about it. These
41:17founders and these highly, highly smart,
41:19experienced people want to talk. And the
41:22reason they want to talk is they can
41:24feel where we are because they've been
41:26building things for this moment. It
41:28wasn't for 2021. It wasn't for 2017. It
41:32was for now. So, in this uh in those two
41:35interviews, the reason I want to bring
41:36them up is it talks about Ethereum, how
41:39it's mispriced, how it should be thought
41:41of as four connected pieces. Now, this
41:43is Mugayar's uh side. I'm going to get
41:45into Tom Lee's side and another person,
41:48Joseph Chalum, who worked at Black
41:49Rockck as well, but Ethereum is
41:51something you need to understand.
41:53Ethereum is effectively the internet in
41:55my opinion. uh and how you value the
41:58internet right now is all of the apps on
42:00top of it. That is not the way crypto is
42:02going to work, but there will be some
42:04connection to it. So, Ethereum is
42:05important for everyone to go through and
42:07I think William does the best point
42:09because he's been involved in the space
42:11from the beginning, but he also was
42:13involved in peer-to-peer with Napster.
42:15He gets it. He was also at Ula Packard a
42:17long time ago. So, this is an
42:19experienced person, very, very bright
42:21and he both Ilia and him said a lot of
42:24things. dot con dots that connected for
42:27me. I don't get that too many points
42:28when I talked to people. So between the
42:30two of them, one hour I probably had
42:32seven things that I left with. Um this
42:34is just a summary of William. You guys
42:35can look at this on your own in terms of
42:37the way to value it. Joseph Chalum um he
42:40is now the CEO of Sharplink. He was at
42:42BlackRock.
42:44He's probably the closest person uh to
42:47Tradfi in terms of the finance side.
42:50He's the person you want to listen to
42:51for the agentic big bang. So, this is a
42:54podcast that came out this week
42:58and this is the bank apocalypse. We
43:00estimate agents will touch about 4,000
43:02trillion dollars of fees over the next
43:04decade for the financial industry.
43:06Ethereum is financial in in uh
43:08infrastructure trust commodity for the
43:10future financial rails. It'll be the
43:13settlement layer for almost all of
43:15finance. Why agents change finance?
43:17Traditional rails can't handle agents.
43:21Everything that he talks about in here
43:24is all about agents being the catalyst.
43:26Again, I'm not just throwing this at you
43:28and going through it. I'm giving you the
43:30people so you don't have to believe it
43:31from me. This is the research I do. This
43:33is the education you get. Ethereum is
43:36effectively the toll road to
43:37tokenization. And that's Larry Fin's
43:40framing. Um, again, another one that you
43:43guys will get on this. So, here are the
43:45three of them. Ether will end up being
43:47the trust commodity for the future
43:49financial rails. Ethereum security layer
43:51and finan finality and trust. The
43:54paradigm shift is about trust. You guys
43:57notice trust, trust, trust. I showed you
44:00Noah trust. Noah from Instinct AI. You
44:03have to understand that when you say the
44:05current system you can trust, you cannot
44:07trust it. You cannot. And I will explain
44:10why. So if you're older and you have
44:12money, you have something to lose. for
44:14younger people and for AI native
44:16businesses who depend on instant
44:18settlement and don't want their money
44:19hung up somewhere throughout the system.
44:22There's a corn
44:24car horn in the background. Sorry, you
44:25guys have to listen to this. Um, are we
44:27going to trust them if they're running
44:29Visa Rails and JP Morgan accounts to
44:31make sure that they're not going to
44:32drain our financial resources? I feel
44:33like every week now there's something
44:34that goes on. Last week it was my uh it
44:36was my uh uh Siri talking on here. So,
44:39sorry about the horn in the background.
44:41uh level of trust within financial
44:43systems. All right, let me go close the
44:45window and see if that'll help.
44:49Didn't need to do it. See, you guys get
44:50a show with Jordy. It's not just It's
44:52real time. It's one It's a It's a If you
44:54thought there was a script, there's no
44:55script. There's no editing. Um AI agents
44:57weaken the old human trust model. Need
45:00We need machine verile verifiable trust.
45:04Lee,
45:06AI creates a new trust problem.
45:08Absolutely. The old architecture of
45:09trust is breaking. Absolutely. ETH
45:12becomes the trust commodity for the new
45:13financial rails. This is the title of
45:16William Muggayar's book. I'm doing a uh
45:20a sentence in it in terms of the
45:22forward. Uh
45:25I believe in what he's going and this
45:27trust shift thing is brilliant. This is
45:29the part where like it was with other
45:32things which I'm going to highlight now.
45:35Remember where you were with iPhone vers
45:37Blackberry, wherever you were working,
45:39whether you didn't trust the iPhone or
45:42didn't want to use the iPhone, whether
45:44your corporation wouldn't let you go on
45:46the iPhone for security, and now the
45:48iPhone is thought of as the most secure
45:50place.
45:52This was a huge deal. So the Blackberry
45:56to me is Visa, Mastercard. You can sit
45:58there and pretend this stuff is things
46:01you don't understand. Go back to Howard
46:03Marx. Just because this brings
46:05discomfort for you doesn't make it the
46:06best investment. This needs to prove to
46:09be a winner. I find 0.0 chance that Visa
46:13and Mastercard will be the winners. Will
46:15they participate? Yes, just like
46:17Salesforce.com.
46:18But you have to be a growth business. AI
46:21native businesses and demographics are
46:23not going to use this. They are going to
46:25use cheaper things. So will big
46:28companies and people that have lots of
46:30money continue to use Visa, Mastercard?
46:32maybe for a while. But when you're
46:34investing in growth, you have to realize
46:36that the ecosystem is changing now. And
46:40that is going to be billions of
46:42entrepreneurs like my son, like me
46:44building businesses and revenue streams
46:46that are competing with other places.
46:49And everything to me is about putting it
46:51on the crypto rails if you use agents
46:54because the agents want it. There is
46:56absolutely no doubt. So, I've given you
46:57Ilia. I've given you Tom Lee. I've given
46:59you Joseph Chalum. I've given you now
47:02something you can look at and go, "Yeah,
47:04was I one of those guys that thought
47:05this would be the trusted thing? Did I
47:07work for a company that thought that
47:10it's not real?" And so, I want to give
47:12you part of the reason why and then give
47:14you something that William told me,
47:16which uh again, Muggy are. So, agents
47:19demand speed. And this is the part that
47:20I think people say for Master and Visa
47:22card, it's just not that important. No
47:24one needs that kind of speed, which I
47:25disagree with. Uh, but when you wire
47:29money on a Friday night
47:31and it doesn't get into your bank
47:33account until Monday
47:36and you might think, where's your money?
47:38Well, we have to go through a lot of
47:40different places. So, it's not only
47:43slow. The reason it's slow is because it
47:45needs to go through a bunch of checks
47:47and balances. Here are the hackers.
47:49Every time that it doesn't settle,
47:51there's an issue. So speed is also a
47:54safety feature. If you haven't factored
47:57it into your thinking, you must. And if
47:59you don't know that, here is an example.
48:03GameStop, remember in Jan 21, we had the
48:06freak out. Well, it created a lot of
48:08issues because of margin calls and all
48:11kinds of stuff. So what happened over
48:14the we went from T+1, T+2 to T+1. And
48:17William pointed that out. That was the
48:18trigger point. It was GameStop. It was a
48:20situation where too much volume happened
48:22in too short a period and there were all
48:24kinds of margin issues. I will let you
48:27know it took multiple years, three and a
48:30half years. This is the friction with
48:32inside the current system to make the
48:34change to go to T+1. But the reason it
48:36went to T+1 to was to reduce the risk.
48:39They found the faster the settlement,
48:42the less the risk in that situation.
48:44With agent swarms now, you don't want
48:46your money sitting out in Never
48:48Neverland. we want to immediately
48:50settle. Here we are the latest updated
48:53numbers so far for the month of October
48:55there for those of you who are looking
48:57at it. Um it gets reweed remember. So we
49:00reweed the index or I reweed the index
49:03September 30th. So the names got reweed.
49:07That's the benchmark waiting now for all
49:09of them. And the index level when I show
49:11you the charts and things that keeps
49:13everything constant. And then we just
49:14reweigh it uh just like you would with
49:17an index in stocks. Month to date, been
49:20a quiet day. Got off to a huge start on
49:21Friday on the payroll numbers, then
49:23cuffed in. Here is the breath and trend.
49:25If you're not involved here so far, uh
49:28you're missing out on a bunch of things.
49:31Uh again, here's the crypto rails
49:33relative to the banks. So if you agree
49:36with me that Mastercard Ves and all the
49:38banks are going to have their business
49:39disrupted not just on the payment side
49:40but the tokenization side as well then
49:43you should subscribe and go look at my
49:46crypto video. So I did crypto why now
49:48last week which went through a lot of
49:50the different reasons this week is on
49:52learning the stack making sure you start
49:54to learn the verticals for the next five
49:55weeks. I will give you two of the 10
49:57verticals. Think of them as themes or
49:59sectors. Um, I will give you the charts
50:01on them all and then I will give you
50:03prompts to do the homework along with
50:05the videos. The two I did this week, AI
50:07agents in the machine economy and stable
50:10coins and synthetic dollar systems. Uh,
50:12Peter Lynch is the inspiration for why
50:15I'm doing this stuff. I believe for
50:17everyone, especially younger people, but
50:19anyone who's involved in this
50:21personally, this is the critical time to
50:23be involved in something that the banks
50:25don't cover that has a fundamental bid
50:27to it that is massive. So if you believe
50:30everything I said to now, you have to
50:31know the big money has not invested
50:33there. And it's coming to Ethereum, it's
50:35coming to Salana, it's coming to
50:36Bitcoin, but it will also spread
50:38throughout the ecosystem as people as
50:41the fundamental people like Ilia and
50:43like William, they're getting calls much
50:45more now. I'm hearing this. I'm getting
50:47them more from asset managers. The FOMO
50:50is growing. So I'm not going to read the
50:52whole thing to you, but this is the
50:54reason why thinking of Peter Lynch at
50:56this point is important. Uh, this is the
50:59end result of a prompt that I have. You
51:00can see it's 13. I'm going to, again,
51:02this is going to go up in the subscriber
51:04wall. I'm not going to go through it,
51:05but this is meant to help you with these
51:06crypto names to where you can just pick
51:08one of the names of the 46, add this
51:10prompt in, run it, and it will give you
51:13a ton of detail on the name. The best
51:16place to learn about these things is on
51:17the internet. The banks, when they get
51:20involved in this, I don't know how
51:21they're going to learn. Maybe they'll
51:22subscribe to my video. Maybe they'll go
51:24get get on there, but they're going to
51:26have to hire. How many analysts do you
51:28have to hire to actually know what these
51:29tokens do? This is a huge advantage to
51:32use AI. So, here's the prompt. It's
51:35called the Peter Lynch Framework Invisor
51:36Labs vertical analysis prompt. You can
51:39read through what it's going to do, but
51:40this will help you learn about them.
51:42Take the 46 names, break them into these
51:4410 sectors so you can think just like
51:47you do in the market. I'm giving you one
51:50index for everyone who's saying to me
51:51they want 10 names or five names or
51:53this. No chance. Crypto is a riskier
51:56place. The reason ETFs are great is
51:59because it's got 46 names. The reason
52:00I'm equal weighting it and not cap
52:02weighting it is because to benefit from
52:05this, I think the equal weight is good.
52:07Think about what I just said. I don't
52:09think equal weight is good for the stock
52:11market because I believe we're losing
52:12thousands of companies including the
52:14public companies being disrupted like
52:16banks and software companies. But on
52:18this side, the money is going to flow
52:20from that space into this space because
52:22it's flowing into the AI native
52:24businesses which will use this. That's
52:26the way you have to think about it. When
52:28tokenization comes, we will go from the
52:30mag seven of growth to the mag billion
52:34of growth. We will lose many, many
52:37companies that will never grow again
52:39like Ford, like GM. That should have
52:40been gone a long time ago, but we've
52:42prevented that from happening. So again,
52:4413 things. you will be smarter at the
52:47end of this week. I guarantee you if you
52:49subscribe, I work very hard to provide
52:52you that and to use AI to help me give
52:54you at least something to be good to
52:56look at. So, he's been busy. He's a good
52:59guy. If you guys haven't reached out to
53:00him, Mark will help you out. Just reach
53:03out to him this week. A bare market
53:06within a bull market. I put this out
53:07this week. And again, if you didn't get
53:08a chance to read it, own scarcity. how
53:12AI and tokenization
53:14could reshape valuation for all
53:16companies. Joseph Chalum put this out
53:18this week. Highly recommend it.
53:21If you don't believe me, follow
53:24Wall Street.
53:27SEC's 5-year transition period. Will
53:28tokenized stocks disrupt Wall Street?
53:30Here are the timelines of all the things
53:32that happened since the Clarity Act
53:34failed to pass.
53:37[sighs] New rules
53:39for the custody of crypto assets. Very
53:42important for investment advisors. This
53:44is from the Federal Reserve Bank of San
53:46Francisco talking about the importance
53:48of stable coins. If you guys don't know
53:50what stable coins are, and I'm showing
53:52you that the government is telling you,
53:54the Fed is telling you, start learning
53:57now. Start understanding stable coins
53:59won't go mainstream on speed alone. Visa
54:01found US adoption intent for
54:03international travelers jumped from 36
54:05to 56 when bank level protection was
54:08added. Why trust is the next
54:09battleground again? Trust, trust, trust.
54:12Swift,
54:13you remember Swift platform transfers,
54:15crossber payments across the existing
54:18rails and digital value. Robin Hood's
54:21next big bet at the Hood Summit, AI bots
54:24that trade while you sleep. I will be
54:26spending more time on this. I am hopeful
54:29that someone on the asset management
54:31side who wants me to do an ETF and
54:34realizes I will not do an ETF. But what
54:36I will do, having run
54:39exchange traded fund business at Morgan
54:40Stanley, knowing program trading and
54:43being a derivative person, knowing how
54:45to execute in a basket, the Agentic side
54:47is the perfect way of my research being
54:50matched up with the names that I have.
54:52So whether it's a crypto place, whether
54:54it's a bank, whether it's Robin Hood,
54:56Mumu, Interactive Brokers, get your act
54:59straight, call up. I'm happy to go
55:01through this. I want my subscribers to
55:03be able to invest in the index and the
55:05names, but I want them also to be able
55:07to use Agentic Trading, Goldman Sachs
55:11going online. These are all this week,
55:13guys. Morgan Stanley builds crypto lab
55:15to test future of Wall Street. They're
55:17setting up a digital asset lab to test
55:19technologies including stable coins,
55:20tokenization, and decentralized finance
55:23applications. Does that sound like
55:25something that isn't going to happen, or
55:27is a bank worried that their growth
55:29might be disrupted? Bank Apocalypse.
55:31City expands digital assets footprint
55:33with Coinbase partnership. Bank
55:35Apocalypse. Big move. 1.83 trillion.
55:38Asset manager Franklin Templeton is
55:39turning mo tokenized money market funds
55:41into active crypto collateral with
55:42Bybit.
55:45TD Cowan joining.
55:47Uh my buddy Chris Perkins wrote this and
55:51for everyone who's worried about how
55:52quantum will hurt crypto, I already
55:55showed you that AI agent swarms are
55:57going to hurt your financial system
55:59wires and everything. We will have
56:01hackings. Pay attention to all the
56:02hackings, the ship hacking that happened
56:05in near Texas coast that we found out
56:07today. Everything is under attack.
56:10Quantum won't kill crypto, but it could
56:12accelerate Wall Street's adoption of
56:14blockchain. Brilliant piece by Chris
56:15Perkins. Thank you for your service, my
56:18friend, and thank you for doing good
56:19work on this. That's all I got.
56:22Finishing with the disclosures.
56:24Hopefully that was Yeah, it looks like
56:26it was about an hour. Sorry for the horn
56:28honking, but at least Siri didn't jump
56:29in. Thanks to all the subscribers. If
56:32you haven't subscribed yet on YouTube,
56:34please subscribe. Give it to your kids.
56:37Let everyone watch this. Send it around
56:39the world. Love you guys. See you.

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