Apakah Sekarang Waktu Terbaik Untuk Beli Bitcoin? — Transcript

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1. 0:00Okay. Usually, when it comes to Indodax
2. 0:03, Mr. Oscar is the one who appears.
3. 0:07>> But this time, we have William here.
4. 0:10It’s very rare to see William on a
5. 0:12podcast; is it rare, or is your
6. 0:13personal brand just not built that way?
7. 0:17>> Well, for me, it's because I’m quite
8. 0:19an introvert. So, it’s not difficult
9. 0:22for others to invite me,
10. 0:23>> no, but I think twice or three times
11. 0:26about it. Okay. I searched and Googled
12. 0:30you yesterday. But before I start with
13. 0:34my questions, could you introduce
14. 0:36yourself a bit and share your
15. 0:37background?
16. 0:40>> Right? Thank you for inviting me today.
17. 0:42My name is William Sutanto. I am
18. 0:46currently the CEO of Indodax, which is
19. 0:48the biggest crypto exchange in
20. 0:50Indonesia. I am a co-founder of Indodax
21. 0:54, having built it since I first learned
22. 0:57about Bitcoin back in 2011-2012. Then I
23. 1:00created Bitcoin.co.id. Later, in 2014,
24. 1:05we officially launched as a crypto
25. 1:07exchange and it has become the Indodax
26. 1:10it is today. As someone who has known
27. 1:14Bitcoin since 2011, I bought it back
28. 1:16then too, right. I bought a little bit,
29. 1:19and I even did some mining using small
30. 1:21USB miners.
31. 1:23>> You could get a bit; one Bitcoin now is
32. 1:25worth...
33. 1:27>> Back then, you could plug a USB into a
34. 1:29laptop to mine, and in those days, we
35. 1:31could even get Bitcoin just by filling
36. 1:33out a captcha on a website.
37. 1:35>> Back then, filling out a captcha would
38. 1:37get you, how much was it?
39. 1:38>> Yeah, wow, how much was it? Maybe 0.001
40. 1:42or something like that.
41. 1:45>> We could just solve one captcha and get
42. 1:47Bitcoin.
43. 1:48>> Okay.
44. 1:50>> Those were the good old days, but the
45. 1:53value of Bitcoin was really small, like
46. 1:55basically zero.
47. 1:58>> But if someone had filled out those
48. 2:00captchas and held onto it until now,
49. 2:02they’d be rich.
50. 2:05>> The problem is, not many people have
51. 2:07the mental fortitude or capacity to
52. 2:09hold.
53. 2:11>> Okay.
54. 2:12>> Because they see it go from 1 dollar to
55. 2:1510 dollars. That’s 10X, right?
56. 2:17>> Yeah.
57. 2:17>> If it goes 10X and you don't sell, what
58. 2:19do you call that? Sometimes people
59. 2:21think, "Is it really going to go higher
60. 2:23?" That's what many people think.
61. 2:24>> Okay, that’s interesting. I want to
62. 2:26discuss that later. In the 19th century
63. 2:30, we saw the trend was actually
64. 2:32railroads.
65. 2:35>> Until like 60%of the US market was just
66. 2:38railroad stocks.
67. 2:40>> Then, in the 20th century, Rockefeller
68. 2:42was big with oil, right? Yeah.
69. 2:46>> Rockefeller built Standard Oil, and
70. 2:48even today, that’s his legacy. Then,
71. 2:52now in the 21st century, it’s really
72. 2:54about the internet and digital money,
73. 2:56like blockchain. Could Bitcoin be
74. 3:00called the "Bitcoin of the century"? Do
75. 3:04you, William, believe that Bitcoin will
76. 3:06become something that revolutionizes
77. 3:08the world like oil or electricity? It's
78. 3:12not just that I believe it, it has
79. 3:14already happened in my opinion, it has
80. 3:15already happened. Okay.
81. 3:17>> Yes. Maybe from my point of view,
82. 3:20Bitcoin is, um, the same as the
83. 3:25internet, like the evolution of the
84. 3:27internet. But the internet is, uh, what
85. 3:30? distributing access to information.
86. 3:33Okay.
87. 3:37>> Where, uh, the distribution of money
88. 3:39hadn't happened in the era of web 1.0
89. 3:42and web 2.0, where it was still just
90. 3:44information flowing worldwide without
91. 3:46limits.
92. 3:50>> But money was still controlled by banks
93. 3:52, still centralized,
94. 3:54>> still issued by the government, right.
95. 3:58Whereas after the emergence of Bitcoin
96. 4:00in 2008, finally there was technology
97. 4:02that allowed what happened in internet
98. 4:04technology to also happen in the
99. 4:06financial industry.
100. 4:09>> Yeah.
101. 4:09>> People can transfer money, transfer
102. 4:11value, maybe let's not call it money
103. 4:13yet. Transfer value from one person to
104. 4:17another without an organization,
105. 4:19without going through any third party.
106. 4:23Actually, that's the revolution in my
107. 4:26opinion. And from that technology, it
108. 4:28developed. There's Ethereum, Smart
109. 4:30Contracts, uh, until now there's DEX
110. 4:32and all sorts of things. But the
111. 4:35beginning was Bitcoin. Does Liam
112. 4:37believe Bitcoin will hit 1 million
113. 4:39dollars? Uh, maybe at some point, yeah.
114. 4:47But I don't know the timeframe for that
115. 4:49. But I'm quite confident. Okay.
116. 4:52>> Because right now, we just look at the
117. 4:56trend line. The trend line shows that
118. 4:58in every cycle, the all-time high is
119. 5:00higher than the previous cycle, right.
120. 5:04Then, uh, what's more important is the
121. 5:06penetration. Every cycle, uh, the way
122. 5:10Bitcoin penetrates the market is also
123. 5:12different. In the beginning, it was
124. 5:15more like a subculture, geeks, nerds,
125. 5:17initially gamers, right. Then gradually
126. 5:22, people who started to understand
127. 5:24finance but wanted to try something, uh
128. 5:26, new technology, started entering
129. 5:28Bitcoin. Then young people started
130. 5:36entering, Gen Alpha, Gen Z, uh, who,
131. 5:38you know, uh, started seeing Bitcoin
132. 5:41and crypto technology as, uh, a
133. 5:43speculative asset that turned out to be
134. 5:45profitable. For the gamer era, in your
135. 5:53opinion, William, from what year to
136. 5:55what year? Then the entry of finance
137. 5:57people, from what year to what year?
138. 5:58For Gen Z, it should start from 2020,
139. 6:01right, 2020.
140. 6:02>> For gamers, actually most were the OGs
141. 6:04of Bitcoin from the very beginning,
142. 6:062010,
143. 6:08>> 11, 12, those were mostly gamers,
144. 6:10because back then there were some game
145. 6:13vouchers that, uh, could only be bought
146. 6:15by Indonesians using Bitcoin. That's
147. 6:19why, why do I have, uh, what you call
148. 6:21it, conviction in Bitcoin? Because back
149. 6:26when I first knew Bitcoin, there was no
150. 6:28technology that could be used for
151. 6:30overseas payments that was easy, cheap,
152. 6:33and fast.
153. 6:34>> Yeah.
154. 6:35>> You'd still receive a check and it
155. 6:36would take a month or two to cash it.
156. 6:39Then next, 2017 I feel, yeah, the 2017
157. 6:45cycle, some finance people started,
158. 6:47although mostly finance people were
159. 6:50still skeptical of Bitcoin, but little
160. 6:53by little,
161. 6:55>> those who might be, uh, more
162. 6:56progressive started getting into
163. 6:58Bitcoin.
164. 7:00>> Uh, why am I quite sure about that?
165. 7:02Because I saw it myself, like some of
166. 7:04our shareholders are bankers,
167. 7:06>> at Indodax, I mean. at Indodax, yeah,
168. 7:09bankers from, uh, top, uh, banks in the
169. 7:13world, like top one, top two, you know.
170. 7:16H
171. 7:17>> they already had conviction in Bitcoin,
172. 7:19investing
173. 7:22>> uh 2017 to '20, maybe, more or less.
174. 7:29>> Those finance people were still
175. 7:31skeptical, they
176. 7:32>> uh, mostly were still skeptical. Okay.
177. 7:35>> Because if you asked bank people back
178. 7:36then, what's the point of Bitcoin?
179. 7:38Bitcoin is a scam.
180. 7:39>> Okay.
181. 7:40>> Bitcoin is dead. That was heard so
182. 7:42often back then. Then, uh, gradually,
183. 7:48uh, various sophisticated products
184. 7:51started to appear, like various lending
185. 7:54services and lending is basically the
186. 8:01same thing as banking.
187. 8:04>> H
188. 8:04>> I mean, essentially, people can
189. 8:06collateralize something, people can
190. 8:08take out a loan, right?
191. 8:10>> Which is, for bank people, this is
192. 8:12their nature. They speak the same
193. 8:16language in this sector. Then,
194. 8:21subsequently, several crypto products
195. 8:23started to appear that were very
196. 8:25similar to, uh, the traditional
197. 8:27financial world. There started to be
198. 8:30options, swaps, uh, futures,
199. 8:32>> h
200. 8:35>> then, yeah, the crypto volume itself
201. 8:38started to rise, right? The reputation
202. 8:41of Bitcoin and crypto started to climb
203. 8:44again.
204. 8:45>> He.
205. 8:47>> From there, then the ICO boom
206. 8:51>> late 2020s or early what year was it?
207. 8:55Around there, yeah. ICO Boom
208. 8:57>> DeFi
209. 8:58>> Summer. Heh,
210. 9:00>> NFT. Uh, yeah, the market just kept
211. 9:04growing even more. More traditional
212. 9:08finance people entered it. Then came
213. 9:11FTX, what was it? 2021, yeah.
214. 9:14>> '21, '22, I guess.
215. 9:16>> Yeah. FTX, then FTX collapsed, like a
216. 9:20reset, maybe, back then. But it turns
217. 9:23out it's picking up, because why? The
218. 9:27next wave is institutional. There
219. 9:30started to be ETFs, digital asset
220. 9:33treasuries, uh, MicroStrategy, and so
221. 9:36on, right? From there, suddenly the
222. 9:42crypto market and Bitcoin became
223. 9:44integrated with traditional finance.
224. 9:48Okay,
225. 9:48>> ETFs listed on Nasdaq on US exchanges.
226. 9:54Then, uh, people could trade
227. 9:56MicroStrategy, which is actually, uh,
228. 9:58Bitcoin underlying.
229. 10:00>> H
230. 10:02>> From there, many serious investors
231. 10:04started entering Bitcoin.
232. 10:08>> But what needs to happen or what level
233. 10:10of adoption does this global market
234. 10:11need to see for Bitcoin to hit a
235. 10:13million dollars? So, for example, back
236. 10:17then it was still gamers, still people
237. 10:19who were just tinkering with IT
238. 10:20computers, right?
239. 10:23>> Then, because it was adopted by finance
240. 10:25people, that's why Bitcoin could reach
241. 10:27100 dollars, 1,000 dollars. Then it was
242. 10:30adopted by the general market, becoming
243. 10:32even wider.
244. 10:32>> That was 2020. After that, it was
245. 10:34adopted by institutions, which is why
246. 10:36Bitcoin could hit 100,000 dollars,
247. 10:38reaching an all-time high before, uh,
248. 10:40the Bitcoin halving yesterday, right?
249. 10:42Now, like in 2028, 2027, or even
250. 10:45further ahead, what kind of adoption is
251. 10:47needed so Bitcoin can hit 1 million
252. 10:50dollars?
253. 10:52>> In my opinion, uh, like right now,
254. 10:54everyone is talking about AI.
255. 10:57>> Yeah. Indeed, in our daily lives, we
256. 10:59can feel that AI is changing our lives.
257. 11:02Okay.
258. 11:04>> And, in the near future, in my opinion,
259. 11:06a major revolution will happen in our
260. 11:09lives. Where many, what do you call it?
261. 11:17Human intervention in doing daily tasks
262. 11:20will be replaced by AI. Okay. So,
263. 11:29technologically, especially digital
264. 11:31technology, it might to some extent
265. 11:33already be able to naturally
266. 11:35communicate natively with AI. But the
267. 11:41problem is, money isn't there yet.
268. 11:45Money right now is essentially still
269. 11:47paper money. Yeah.
270. 11:48>> Yeah. Even in banks, it’s still paper
271. 11:51money stored in safes, actually. Banks
272. 11:53are about paper money.
273. 11:55>> Can AI access bank money right now
274. 11:57natively, naturally, organically? To
275. 12:00transfer it, it can't, right?
276. 12:02>> Right? It doesn't exist yet. Because to
277. 12:04access a bank, you need what? You need
278. 12:06a phone, there’s always facial
279. 12:08>> recognition, right?
280. 12:10>> But lately, there have been scams where
281. 12:12AI does the verifying. Do you know that
282. 12:13?
283. 12:14>> Yeah, yeah. That’s the, that’s the
284. 12:17bad side of it, right. But if we talk
285. 12:22about it naturally, the financial
286. 12:24industry today hasn't been designed for
287. 12:31AI, for digital. Financial
288. 12:37infrastructure today is designed for
289. 12:38humans.
290. 12:40>> Okay.
291. 12:41>> Even though in the future, many human
292. 12:43roles will be replaced by AI. Okay.
293. 12:46>> Meanwhile, crypto, AI can open crypto
294. 12:50very easily. Just attach it to a wallet
295. 12:55library, to MetaMask or anything, and
296. 12:57it immediately becomes a wallet. Uh-huh
297. 12:59.
298. 13:00>> No KYC needed. Talking about data
299. 13:07transfer, data communication,
300. 13:09encryption, decryption, that is AI's
301. 13:11native language, digital's native
302. 13:13language. Uh-huh. So, I have very high
303. 13:20conviction that with the development of
304. 13:22AI, it will heavily impact Bitcoin and
305. 13:24crypto. Because as humans, we talk
306. 13:30about what is the strongest safe haven
307. 13:32right now. If something happens with
308. 13:35the government, with the country, with
309. 13:37the economy.
310. 13:38>> Gold.
311. 13:38>> Gold, right.
312. 13:39>> Yes.
313. 13:40>> But in the era, the AI era later. Can
314. 13:46AI really hold gold?
315. 13:47>> Uh-huh.
316. 13:49>> Can AI really perceive what gold is?
317. 13:54>> They have cognition, but they don't
318. 13:56have the physicality to know why they
319. 13:58should use gold or what gold is, right?
320. 14:01Even if there will be robotics or
321. 14:02whatever later,
322. 14:06>> but why must they use gold? But what is
323. 14:10the impact of AI on Bitcoin, like why,
324. 14:12why would Bitcoin go up because of AI,
325. 14:14that might be the
326. 14:17>> rough idea.
327. 14:19>> So, if we are humans, we are, we are
328. 14:21humans, right?
329. 14:24>> When something happens with the economy
330. 14:26, we hedge into gold, right?
331. 14:29>> Yeah.
332. 14:30>> And that has been happening for
333. 14:31hundreds of years. Uh-huh.
334. 14:34>> What I believe is that in the AI era,
335. 14:36the safe haven is digital gold.
336. 14:40>> Okay.
337. 14:41>> Which is Bitcoin.
338. 14:42>> What do you mean by an AI era safe
339. 14:44haven?
340. 14:47>> Uh, if we talk about finance, in the
341. 14:54end, what we want to do is keep up with
342. 14:56inflation, right?
343. 14:57>> Yeah. Uh, from there we have a wide
344. 15:04variety of instruments so that we can
345. 15:06pursue, ensuring our wealth isn't
346. 15:08eroded by inflation, right? If the
347. 15:15economic situation is good, we usually
348. 15:18invest in stocks, in bonds, and various
349. 15:20kinds of traditional instruments, right
350. 15:22? But when the economy is bad, usually
351. 15:30what humans generally do is hedge into
352. 15:32physical assets, real estate, right, or
353. 15:35, uh, gold in the end. Yes, once again,
354. 15:41in my opinion, in an AI's mind, they
355. 15:44cannot, what, cannot digest why they
356. 15:50have to use gold. Because naturally,
357. 15:55they will look for a digital equivalent
358. 15:56of what we have been doing for hundreds
359. 15:58of years.
360. 16:01>> Hm.
361. 16:01>> With this, what they understand is only
362. 16:04Bitcoin.
363. 16:04>> Hm. So when something happens with the
364. 16:09economy or there is a trust issue from
365. 16:11that AI toward the economy, primarily,
366. 16:20it’s Bitcoin, and, uh, eventually,
367. 16:22the AI-driven economy will always look
368. 16:25for ways to acquire Bitcoin. So, if I'm
369. 16:33not mistaken, in your opinion, K
370. 16:35William, in the future, AI will be
371. 16:37handling money, right? And because of
372. 16:42what will happen in the global world,
373. 16:44this AI will look for alternative safe
374. 16:46haven assets, and they will go to
375. 16:48Bitcoin. I believe that in the future,
376. 16:55our efforts in earning money through
377. 16:57the financial market will be very
378. 16:58AI-driven, right?
379. 17:02>> Okay.
380. 17:04>> What does AI-driven mean? We entrust
381. 17:06our decisions to AI.
382. 17:07>> Hm.
383. 17:08>> Maybe as humans, we will still be
384. 17:10involved. Oh, I want high risk, I want
385. 17:13low risk, I want medium risk. But in
386. 17:19the end, moving forward, we will be
387. 17:21more resigned to whatever decision AI
388. 17:23makes.
389. 17:26>> Heh.
390. 17:27>> Meanwhile, AI can only make sense of
391. 17:29what they know, what they can naturally
392. 17:31touch. This is,
393. 17:34>> in my opinion, Bitcoin, crypto,
394. 17:37blockchain.
395. 17:40>> So after the ETFs, governments, and
396. 17:42even countries like El Salvador
397. 17:44adopting Bitcoin, does it mean the
398. 17:46human stage of adopting Bitcoin is
399. 17:47finished, and now it’s the AI’s
400. 17:49turn? We humans are still accumulating
401. 17:55Bitcoin, like MicroStrategy,
402. 18:03>> with its ups and downs, just yesterday
403. 18:05it seems they accumulated another 200
404. 18:07bitcoins or something, and many
405. 18:09institutions are indeed always
406. 18:10accumulating Bitcoin until now, but I
407. 18:12think when the AI-driven
408. 18:14decision-making process is involved,
409. 18:15their decision-making will increasingly
410. 18:18catalyze it. We just accumulate Bitcoin
411. 18:26just like we accumulate gold. All
412. 18:29countries accumulate gold, China
413. 18:31accumulates gold.
414. 18:32>> But what do you mean by the price
415. 18:34impact? So, for instance, there's a
416. 18:36person, say I have money, I don't know
417. 18:38how to invest, I ask an AI, "Oh, where
418. 18:40is a good place to put this money?" The
419. 18:42AI says Bitcoin. So, in the future,
420. 18:44adoption will be like that. Yes. Why
421. 18:47couldn't the AI just say, "Oh, why
422. 18:49don't you buy GOAT or this stock looks
423. 18:51good right now?" Like that. Why does it
424. 18:54lean more towards Bitcoin? It doesn't
425. 18:56really need to
426. 18:58>> AI doesn't need to understand 100%about
427. 19:01gold. It only needs to look at news or
428. 19:04read something.
429. 19:06>> Well, trading, investing, and finance
430. 19:09surely have various strategies, right?
431. 19:12Hm.
432. 19:13>> Yeah. And mostly the strategy isn't
433. 19:16just one asset, but a bucket of assets.
434. 19:18>> Hm.
435. 19:19>> Right. From that, I believe AI, because
436. 19:23they will definitely trust more in what
437. 19:25they understand. So the position of
438. 19:29Bitcoin will grow larger over time.
439. 19:32>> Hm. I see, I see. Okay. Okay.
440. 19:35>> Because I believe we will eventually
441. 19:37rely on AI. And AI naturally wants to
442. 19:41invest in what they can touch. Do you
443. 19:46believe Bitcoin is gold 2.0, digital
444. 19:48gold?
445. 19:50>> I'm not really, I'm not really leaning
446. 19:52that way, since there's a lot of
447. 19:53tokenized gold now.
448. 19:54>> Yes. Like XAUT.
449. 19:57>> For example, that's one of them. But in
450. 20:00my opinion, digital gold is Bitcoin.
451. 20:03Okay. Why must we tokenize physical
452. 20:06things into the blockchain world? It's
453. 20:11better to just invest in Bitcoin.
454. 20:13William, do you believe one day Bitcoin
455. 20:16will flip gold in terms of market cap?
456. 20:18So,
457. 20:19>> I believe it.
458. 20:20>> Gold is currently 30 trillion US
459. 20:22dollars. Bitcoin is 1.6.
460. 20:24>> That means 30x from now.
461. 20:26>> Yeah.
462. 20:26>> So if you believe it, is there an
463. 20:28estimated timeline for when?
464. 20:29>> Well, talking about timelines is
465. 20:31difficult. What I believe in the crypto
466. 20:33software world, having followed it for
467. 20:35over 10 years,
468. 20:36>> usually, what public wisdom is true, I
469. 20:43mean, the public wisdom on social media
470. 20:45predicting a dump, a bull run, or a
471. 20:47bear market is mostly correct, but
472. 20:49guessing the timing is hard.
473. 20:53>> Hm.
474. 20:55>> And it's happened many times; before
475. 20:56every all-time high, everyone was
476. 20:58making noise, but no one could
477. 21:00determine the timing—whether it's
478. 21:01next month or another month.
479. 21:03>> Hm.
480. 21:03>> But everyone already feels this will be
481. 21:05bearish, this will be bullish.
482. 21:07>> Hm.
483. 21:08>> Yeah, things like this are also hard
484. 21:10for me to answer. When is the timing?
485. 21:13Well, as a Bitcoin holder, of course I
486. 21:15want it as soon as possible. But if
487. 21:20asked personally, personally, not
488. 21:23financial advice.
489. 21:25>> When, so when will it flip? When will
490. 21:27it flip or when will it hit a million?
491. 21:29>> When will it hit a million? When will
492. 21:30it flip, let's say? I think 5 years is
493. 21:33possible, right?
494. 21:34>> 5 years.
495. 21:35>> A million.
496. 21:35>> Yeah.
497. 21:37>> Okay, so 2031. I
498. 21:43>> think it's possible.
499. 21:44>> In 2031, Bitcoin, according to William,
500. 21:46will
501. 21:47>> in my personal opinion, personal.
502. 21:49>> Yes, yes. Everyone has their own
503. 21:51opinion on when it could flip gold.
504. 21:54>> Yeah, in five to 10 years, I think it's
505. 21:56possible. 5 to 10 years. Hm.
506. 22:00>> Is there a reason, like why in 2031?
507. 22:06Why is the five-year forecast
508. 22:07calculated that way, or is it just a
509. 22:09rough prediction because, you know,
510. 22:11demand keeps rising? Demand keeps
511. 22:17rising and I’m not someone who
512. 22:22studies macroeconomics very deeply. But
513. 22:26I hear from friends that, yes, it seems
514. 22:28like in the future, um what’s it
515. 22:34called, the tendency for money printing
516. 22:36is significant, right? Hm.
517. 22:41>> Meaning that, yes, inflation will rise,
518. 22:43and from there, it will push
519. 22:45Bitcoin’s value even higher. Not just
520. 22:50Bitcoin, actually, but all assets as
521. 22:52well.
522. 22:52>> But if that’s the argument, we were
523. 22:54discussing AI a bit earlier, right?
524. 22:56>> Hm.
525. 22:58>> Uh, Elon Musk seems to have talked
526. 23:00about universal high income, right? So
527. 23:02it’s like where AI will be
528. 23:05>> too efficient, to the point where AI
529. 23:07can provide labor, can produce food for
530. 23:09humans,
531. 23:10>> and ultimately, it becomes deflationary
532. 23:12, not inflationary. If it’s like that
533. 23:15, in the end, will the government print
534. 23:17money to print more money and will
535. 23:18Bitcoin go up?
536. 23:21>> If the argument is that, oh, because
537. 23:23the government will print money,
538. 23:24Bitcoin will eventually go up because
539. 23:26Bitcoin is liquidity-sensitive. I
540. 23:29don’t know about macroeconomic issues
541. 23:30like that, but what I believe is that
542. 23:32the economy should keep running. Hm.
543. 23:35>> Even if most economic activities are
544. 23:37carried out by AI later,
545. 23:40>> we’ll just have a different way of
546. 23:42recording value, that’s all. Like
547. 23:45before, this was also said by Elon Musk
548. 23:47, maybe in a few years to come
549. 23:50>> eh, money is no longer
550. 23:52>> money won’t matter.
551. 23:53>> Matter.
552. 23:54>> Ten years, maybe.
553. 23:55>> Yes, that’s what Elon Musk said. Yeah
554. 24:01, I believe value will still exist,
555. 24:03just transformed; it might not be the
556. 24:06currency we use daily, it could turn
557. 24:08into Bitcoin or crypto. In the end,
558. 24:15robots and robots will still need a
559. 24:17medium of exchange.
560. 24:18>> Hm.
561. 24:20>> To record their transactions, what
562. 24:22would they use? Humans with humans, we
563. 24:25humans will still be alive, man. Hm.
564. 24:30>> We still need to travel, we still need
565. 24:32to distribute universal basic income,
566. 24:34so there must be a medium for that.
567. 24:39>> It could be crypto, or something else,
568. 24:41I don’t know, and whether the
569. 24:42government can
570. 24:44>> transform that quickly, I doubt it.
571. 24:46>> Hm.
572. 24:48>> Actually, AI will change many things
573. 24:50very quickly. We are already seeing it
574. 24:53now. But the problem is, humans can't.
575. 24:56>> As a Bitcoin holder since 2011, then,
576. 24:59yeah.
577. 25:01>> Actually, I want to discuss that,
578. 25:02it’s interesting. People always say,
579. 25:04oh, if you bought Bitcoin in 2011,
580. 25:06you’d definitely be rich, look at
581. 25:082011, how much was Bitcoin, was it 100
582. 25:10dollars or still...
583. 25:12>> 1 dollar? No, there wasn't
584. 25:14>> 1 dollar; if we saw that Bitcoin was 1
585. 25:16dollar in 2011, if you held from 2011
586. 25:19until now, that’s already 65,000 x or
587. 25:2280,000 x. Theoretically, theoretically.
588. 25:25But who would dare to hold for that
589. 25:27long?
590. 25:27>> Now, could you explain that? Because
591. 25:29everyone keeps saying that, right?
592. 25:31Everyone assumes that holding, like
593. 25:33holding Bitcoin since 2011, is easy.
594. 25:38>> Well, if the story were really that
595. 25:40beautiful, maybe I'd already be in
596. 25:42Forbes. Now, as for William yourself,
597. 25:47is there like, "Wow, Bitcoin was 1
598. 25:49dollar when it hit like 10X.""Wow, I
599. 25:52OJed Bitcoin, I OJed Ethereum, I bought
600. 25:54Ethereum during the ICO, I OJed BNB, I
601. 25:57OJed Dogecoin."
602. 25:58>> Okay.
603. 26:00>> Ripple, XRP, I bought all of those when
604. 26:02they were at their lowest price point.
605. 26:05Imagine if I held them, why would I be
606. 26:06running an exchange? Running an
607. 26:08exchange is tiring too.
608. 26:09>> Ethereum ICO meant at what price, sir?
609. 26:12Ethereum ICO was 30 cents.
610. 26:14>> 30 cents.
611. 26:16>> But nothing was held there, space.
612. 26:18>> I sold when it was, eh, 19, 20. Imagine
613. 26:2430 cents becoming 20. Who has the
614. 26:29mental capacity not to sell?
615. 26:32>> Okay. No, it wasn't left as a small
616. 26:34amount like that. Well, the problem was
617. 26:37at that time I was still stupid, I
618. 26:39didn't know my trading strategy. I
619. 26:41exited everything.
620. 26:42>> Can I know, sir, what price you bought
621. 26:44Bitcoin at in 2011? And did you exit at
622. 26:46any price?
623. 26:47>> Below 1 dollar.
624. 26:48>> I bought it. The problem is like this,
625. 26:50for Bitcoin, yeah. I understood Bitcoin
626. 26:54in 2011-2012.
627. 26:57>> At that time, I only bought a little.
628. 26:59Then.
629. 27:00>> I started making Bitcoin.co.id in 2013.
630. 27:03>> Yeah. Then Bitcoin.co.id wasn't a
631. 27:08trading platform, it was like OTC. Yeah
632. 27:12.
633. 27:12>> Yeah, the bid was set by me.
634. 27:14>> Yeah.
635. 27:15>> Eh. So the Bitcoin supplier was
636. 27:19actually me myself.
637. 27:20>> Yeah.
638. 27:21>> If someone bought, I would release the
639. 27:23goods.
640. 27:23>> Yeah.
641. 27:24>> I was sourcing goods elsewhere. If
642. 27:27someone wanted to sell Bitcoin, I would
643. 27:29buy it, right? Then I would take the
644. 27:31spread in the middle. Now, with that
645. 27:35business model, I couldn't accumulate
646. 27:37Bitcoin because I always prioritized
647. 27:39liquidity for Bitcoin back then. Now,
648. 27:43that's what you call it? Maybe.
649. 27:46>> Eh.
650. 27:48>> The downside of being a founder or an
651. 27:50exchange operator.
652. 27:52>> Yeah.
653. 27:53>> Meaning because if we want to go all
654. 27:55out running an exchange, we surely
655. 27:56prioritize the exchange more than
656. 27:58ourselves, right? In the end, it's hard
657. 28:01for us to hold. So, of Bitcoin,
658. 28:05Ethereum, XRP, Doge, there's, eh, very
659. 28:08little that I can still hold until now,
660. 28:11personally.
661. 28:14>> Wow, that's interesting. Did you also
662. 28:16buy Doge at a very low price?
663. 28:18>> Very low. Back then, in the beginning,
664. 28:22there wasn't any Ethereum yet.
665. 28:23>> Ethereum was 2015.
666. 28:26>> The ICO was 2014. Yeah.
667. 28:29>> At that time, there was only XRP,
668. 28:31Litecoin, eh. Dodge. And almost all of
669. 28:37them were forks of Bitcoin, right?
670. 28:39>> Yeah.
671. 28:42>> As someone who has been in this crypto
672. 28:44industry for 14, 15 years, seeing
673. 28:46Bitcoin from 1 dollar then going up to
674. 28:4810 then going down again to whatever it
675. 28:51was. The market has its cycles, right,
676. 28:56sir, like the famous four-year cycle.
677. 28:58So it's like.
678. 29:00>> every 4 years the narrative is that
679. 29:01there's even a bull market, even a new
680. 29:03all-time high. Bitcoin, in fact, the
681. 29:05data shows that people who have held
682. 29:07Bitcoin for 5 years have never lost
683. 29:09money, because Bitcoin consistently
684. 29:11hits all-time highs over 5 years since
685. 29:13the cycle is indeed like that.
686. 29:15>> True. In 2017, as William mentioned
687. 29:18earlier, there were ICOs, and in 2020
688. 29:20the market was euphoric due to COVID
689. 29:22and QE, as governments were printing
690. 29:24money, but over time these cycles have
691. 29:27been diminishing, the returns are
692. 29:28getting smaller, aren't they? 2020's
693. 29:32returns weren't as big as 2017.
694. 29:35>> This 2024 is like
695. 29:36>> a sequel to 2020, right, we don't. We
696. 29:39don't really feel it's there, but it's
697. 29:42not as big as 2020-2021. Now, looking
698. 29:45ahead, the projection is for 2027-2028.
699. 29:50According to William, is it possible
700. 29:52for us to repeat 2020? Or maybe
701. 29:58something similar to 2020 again, where
702. 30:00the market and everything rallies, or
703. 30:01will it be different?
704. 30:06>> It will definitely be different because
705. 30:08now the nature of the market is
706. 30:09different. Before, the sentiment was
707. 30:13retail-driven, now it's institutionally
708. 30:16driven. But keep in mind, this is just
709. 30:20my assumption. Again, I am not an
710. 30:22expert in macroeconomics and
711. 30:24geopolitics. I see that world
712. 30:28geopolitics are becoming increasingly
713. 30:30chaotic lately, it seems. Wars are
714. 30:34everywhere. Then, whether in Indonesia
715. 30:39or in the US, politics are quite
716. 30:42chaotic and unstable compared to a few
717. 30:44decades ago. So the four-year cycle
718. 30:51continues to run as usual because,
719. 30:53fundamentally, it follows the Bitcoin
720. 30:56halving. I think there is also a larger
721. 31:01cycle. Okay.
722. 31:04>> The four-year cycle is like a financial
723. 31:06cycle, you know. At some point,
724. 31:11politically, the world will become
725. 31:16increasingly chaotic. Yeah.
726. 31:19>> Which will impact the economy. So, as
727. 31:26more parties go to war with each other,
728. 31:28form alliances, and the economy is
729. 31:30disrupted, the demand for a safe haven
730. 31:32becomes greater. That's what I believe.
731. 31:42So from there, it will become a
732. 31:44catalyst for the four-year cycle that
733. 31:48is currently slowing down.
734. 31:49>> Yeah.
735. 31:50>> It will rise again.
736. 31:52>> But can it be as euphoric as 2020? Can
737. 31:56the market boom like it did in 2020?
738. 32:00People are asking, could there be a "
739. 32:02super cycle"? Maybe.
740. 32:03>> I think it's possible. Especially now,
741. 32:05yeah. The super cycle that existed in
742. 32:10the 1st and 2nd cycles before
743. 32:13>> those are people who have been in the
744. 32:15market since Bitcoin was 1 dollar, you
745. 32:17know. This
746. 32:20>> was driven by, well, the two previous
747. 32:22cycles were NFTs
748. 32:25>> and DeFi, right?
749. 32:27>> Yeah. Sorry, the previous one was DeFi,
750. 32:31right? Yeah.
751. 32:32>> And the one before that was ICOs.
752. 32:34>> Yeah.
753. 32:37>> And the last one was Memecoins.
754. 32:40>> That
755. 32:42>> liquidity is saturated, in my opinion.
756. 32:44Too many projects.
757. 32:46>> Yeah.
758. 32:47>> And sorry to say, too many low-quality
759. 32:50projects.
760. 32:51>> Hm.
761. 32:51>> Shitcoins.
762. 32:52>> Yeah. And I think now the market is
763. 33:00mature enough to understand that, yes,
764. 33:02there is a market that doesn't have
765. 33:03these fundamentals. Hm.
766. 33:10>> So, the market has split itself, where
767. 33:12the non-fundamental market is getting
768. 33:14smaller and smaller, right?
769. 33:17>> And people are more inclined toward
770. 33:19assets with fundamentals. Big caps.
771. 33:22>> Hm.
772. 33:23>> Bitcoin, recently hyped Ethereum, and
773. 33:26so on. So I think, in the end,
774. 33:32liquidity will also be concentrated in
775. 33:34those high-quality assets.
776. 33:36>> Okay.
777. 33:37>> The trend to play in those areas still
778. 33:39exists. If people want to speculate,
779. 33:41they'll speculate.
780. 33:43>> But smart money will go here.
781. 33:44Previously, smart money was also
782. 33:46saturated. They followed along with the
783. 33:48weird stuff too. Now, it's starting to
784. 33:50concentrate on big caps, especially
785. 33:52Bitcoin. Now, from there, that's the
786. 33:55catalyst for why Bitcoin is growing
787. 33:57again.
788. 33:57>> Hm.
789. 33:58>> Because the liquidity is concentrated.
790. 34:01>> Okay. So, essentially, people are
791. 34:03starting to not want to play in those
792. 34:05places, they don't want to speculate
793. 34:06anymore. What they want—
794. 34:09>> People will definitely speculate, but
795. 34:10now there are more instruments for
796. 34:12speculation.
797. 34:14>> Memecoins aren't as crazy as they were
798. 34:16before, right? And now there are
799. 34:18prediction markets. Now there are
800. 34:20perpetual futures.
801. 34:21>> Hm.
802. 34:22>> So, speculate if you want, but in the
803. 34:24right venue.
804. 34:26>> Hm.
805. 34:27>> If you want to speculate, what? 100x
806. 34:30leverage, well, do it on perps. But if
807. 34:36it's for investment, well,
808. 34:38>> high quality—
809. 34:39>> high-quality fundamental assets. That's
810. 34:44what I believe in, and the liquidity
811. 34:46here is much larger than in the pure
812. 34:48speculation side. Oh, it definitely is
813. 34:52much larger, because the capital needed
814. 34:54to drive it up is more, and market cap
815. 34:56just depends on liquidity. The more
816. 34:59liquidity that enters,
817. 35:01>> the price will go up more. What drives
818. 35:03liquidity? Yes, money supply, right?
819. 35:06>> Hm. Now, let's talk about narratives or
820. 35:10sectors that are interesting for the
821. 35:11next few years. As people also know,
822. 35:17based on the cycle, 2027–28 should be
823. 35:20bullish for Bitcoin, right? I mean,
824. 35:24this year we've retraced like 50–60%,
825. 35:27and Bitcoin is just bouncing now.
826. 35:30According to you, William, what
827. 35:31narratives or sectors are interesting
828. 35:33for the next 1 to 2 years?
829. 35:36>> Well, right now, AI is a definite. Okay
830. 35:39.
831. 35:41>> So, any infrastructure that can support
832. 35:43AI will go up.
833. 35:45>> Okay.
834. 35:46>> And then RWA—because the hype is
835. 35:50really strong and this is
836. 35:52institutionally driven.
837. 35:53>> Okay.
838. 35:54>> Yeah. If we look upstream, the demand
839. 35:59from institutions wanting to invest or
840. 36:01initiate RWA projects is very strong.
841. 36:06>> Okay.
842. 36:07>> Yeah. Meaning the liquidity is there.
843. 36:09>> Okay.
844. 36:10>> Uh, yeah, that's it. So I think the
845. 36:19next cycle will be quite serious, not
846. 36:21retail speculative behavior, but more
847. 36:24like a return to something similar to
848. 36:26traditional finance. Okay.
849. 36:33>> Or maybe a bit—it could be that RWA
850. 36:39sounds serious but is packaged in a
851. 36:41unique way.
852. 36:44>> Hm.
853. 36:44>> Like recently, Robinhood, that—
854. 36:47>> Hm.
855. 36:48>> they're pairing, uh, RWA stocks with
856. 36:50meme coins, right? That's just the way
857. 36:53they package it.
858. 36:55>> Hm.
859. 36:55>> But in the end, it's RWA, which is
860. 36:57supposed to be an institutional game.
861. 37:00>> Yeah. But it turns out there's a
862. 37:02prettier way to package it that makes
863. 37:04retail happy.
864. 37:05>> Right. This is, this is actually the
865. 37:07future, this ques I have two questions,
866. 37:11actually. Since William is now the CEO
867. 37:15of Indodax, going from CTO to now CEO.
868. 37:21From Indodax's millions of users, have
869. 37:23you, William, seen any patterns in
870. 37:25their behavior? Like, what separates
871. 37:28the people who make a profit from those
872. 37:30who lose money on Indodax? Let's say,
873. 37:34what kind of behavior do they have? Do
874. 37:37they hold a lot of coins, or do they
875. 37:39take profit often, or what? Are there
876. 37:42traits that crypto investors or traders
877. 37:44on Indodax have that make them
878. 37:45profitable or cause them to lose? From
879. 37:51what I see and understand, the smart
880. 37:52traders, the ones who tend to have a
881. 37:54higher win rate, have the right
882. 37:56community.
883. 38:00>> Okay.
884. 38:00>> Hm.
885. 38:01>> The right community.
886. 38:02>> The right community. I. Okay.
887. 38:05>> So it's not a FOMO community, not just
888. 38:07following what they read on social
889. 38:09media, then getting FOMO and buying.
890. 38:13>> Okay.
891. 38:14>> Yeah, the people I know personally,
892. 38:16some groups, they really do have very
893. 38:18high-quality groups.
894. 38:21>> Okay.
895. 38:22>> Then they buy things together,
896. 38:25>> they study an asset together.
897. 38:28>> Is there anything technical besides
898. 38:30that? Very high-quality groups provide
899. 38:32insights for them. Is there anything
900. 38:35else?
901. 38:37>> Maybe it's because, you know, there are
902. 38:39many ways to get gains and profits from
903. 38:41crypto, right? People doing
904. 38:45high-frequency trading can win.
905. 38:47>> Hm.
906. 38:48>> Uh, delta neutral strategies, for
907. 38:50example. They sell here, buy there,
908. 38:53like that. Then hedging against each
909. 38:55other. That can win; investing alone
910. 38:59can also win.
911. 39:02>> So, for those who just invest, what are
912. 39:04the traits so they can keep winning?
913. 39:07Like, do they, for example, diligently
914. 39:09take profit or stop loss, or what? Is
915. 39:12there one behavior that you've seen,
916. 39:16William?
917. 39:17>> If it's investing, right? If it's
918. 39:19investing, maybe if they invest in
919. 39:28Bitcoin, they need to be strong holders
920. 39:30; they usually have conviction, they
921. 39:32buy, they don't easily get caught in
922. 39:35FOMO or, what is it, FUD, and then sell
923. 39:37off easily. If it's altcoins, it's
924. 39:45usually a matter of timing.
925. 39:48>> Hm. They are smart at reading timing.
926. 39:52>> Because when it's bullish, there's a
927. 39:54saying, "When bullish, everyone is
928. 39:56smart."
929. 39:58>> Exactly. Whatever you invest in, you
930. 40:01win. When it's bullish, they enter and
931. 40:06invest when it's bullish. As soon as it
932. 40:11nears bearish, they exit. And that's it
933. 40:16; they aren't tempted anymore to, uh,
934. 40:18jump back into something else. So, they
935. 40:20are smart at reading timing.
936. 40:22>> Okay.
937. 40:23>> Timing. Yeah, yeah. to be able to read
938. 40:26the timing. Like it or not, you have to
939. 40:28read a lot.
940. 40:29>> Okay,
941. 40:31>> read a lot, do a lot of research, don't
942. 40:33just follow what people say on social
943. 40:35media.
944. 40:37>> Okay.
945. 40:39>> Many get trapped because they only
946. 40:41follow FOMO on social media, right?
947. 40:45>> Usually because when it’s already too
948. 40:47crowded on social media, that’s
949. 40:48actually a sign of a bearish trend.
950. 40:51This is probably my last personal
951. 40:53question. Like, I used Indodax by
952. 40:56registering with my parents 'ID back in
953. 40:592020 or 2021, around then. I want to
954. 41:05ask from the exchange business
955. 41:07perspective, like, how come Indodax is
956. 41:09now number one
957. 41:11>> exchange, right?
958. 41:13>> How come, eh, what is the economic moat
959. 41:15of this exchange business? From my
960. 41:19rough view, it's just about listing
961. 41:21tokens as well as possible and keeping
962. 41:23fees as cheap as possible. Like, why is
963. 41:27Indodax able to be the number one
964. 41:28exchange, from the business side, how
965. 41:30come?
966. 41:32>> So the crypto exchange business,
967. 41:34especially in Indonesia, is now quite
968. 41:37similar to a traditional, eh, company,
969. 41:40a conventional company, because, eh,
970. 41:42crypto is now very regulated, right.
971. 41:45>> Okay
972. 41:46>> yeah. So, eh, our boundaries for doing
973. 41:49business are quite limited.
974. 41:52>> Hm. So, eh, I consider, eh, crypto
975. 41:57exchanges to no longer be innovation
976. 41:59companies, but now they are like very
977. 42:02conventional companies. Now,
978. 42:06>> from there, you can liken a crypto
979. 42:08exchange to just a bank or a securities
980. 42:10firm. So yes, of course, business
981. 42:15strategy includes pricing, but besides
982. 42:18pricing, there is user experience
983. 42:21>> right? how our customer support is, how
984. 42:25our branding is, how we can create
985. 42:27trust, how, eh, our platform is easily
986. 42:33accessible, easy to use, and all sorts
987. 42:36of things.
988. 42:38>> And in the end, it really just comes
989. 42:40down to competing there. who can create
990. 42:46trust, who can, eh, deliver what is
991. 42:48promised and what their members want,
992. 42:51eh, to do.
993. 42:54>> But does Indodax's first-mover
994. 42:56advantage really have an impact, or is
995. 42:58it not that significant? That's what
996. 43:01allows us to build, eh, trust with the
997. 43:03public because we have been running an
998. 43:05exchange for 13 years.
999. 43:07>> And
1000. 43:09>> it's proven through several cycles,
1001. 43:11we've proven we don't shake, right?
1002. 43:15Whether it's up or down, we remain
1003. 43:17strong, from the FTX case to the recent
1004. 43:1910T case.
1005. 43:21>> Yeah.
1006. 43:23>> We keep doing well.
1007. 43:24>> Yes, yes.
1008. 43:26>> Even when regulators came in and
1009. 43:28performed an extraordinary amount of
1010. 43:30audits on us. We were doing pretty well
1011. 43:33. That's what, eh, makes our moat, I
1012. 43:36feel. Makes our moat, eh, so that our
1013. 43:42customers trust Indodax more.
1014. 43:45>> Okay,
1015. 43:46>> thankfully,
1016. 43:48>> that's what I'm grateful for, that we
1017. 43:50have such a long history.
1018. 43:51>> Okay, thank you, Sir.
1019. 43:53>> Thank you, yeah.
1020. 43:53>> Sharing,
1021. 43:54>> right. Yeah.