An Unfiltered Conversation with Mr Lithium — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:01Well, the the capability really came
- 0:03from the west. Truth be told, we quit
- 0:05doing it and they have a huge cost
- 0:10advantage. You know, when they were
- 0:12talking about technologies that they
- 0:14were going to might limit the export of
- 0:16and one of the things they talked about
- 0:17was hard rock conversion and it was like
- 0:20really
- 0:22um we actually started
- 0:24that. Right, buddy. Mers, lithium
- 0:27spectacular coming your way. Boys, you
- 0:30know the best place to charge a lithium
- 0:32battery. Tell me, Matthew, in a charging
- 0:35station, probably in a grounded camp.
- 0:37They can put them in and cuz you know
- 0:39what? Cuz they don't build on the plan.
- 0:41They design the plan. Unbelievable. And
- 0:43then they build they design, concept,
- 0:46construct, mate. Absolute experts, mate.
- 0:48You can have a look at this joint. This
- 0:51is Subako on a mine site. And you see
- 0:54grounded zone Katie door walking around
- 0:56here. I swear that is the animated
- 0:58version of Katie Door. It's been modeled
- 1:00off. But you can mate unbelievable
- 1:04quality. That is what you will see in
- 1:07real life once the grounded team unleash
- 1:10their expertise on you. Camp is the
- 1:12wrong word. We need we need we need a
- 1:14new word for what these are because this
- 1:15is revolutionized accommodation on a
- 1:17mindsite. Resort. Resort. Resort.
- 1:21Village. Um, yeah. It's uh it's got it's
- 1:24got to make working there happy. City
- 1:25dwellings in the bush. Love it.
- 1:27Designed, concept, and constructed by
- 1:30the Grounded Group. Go Grounded, mate.
- 1:32Did they build their own building? They
- 1:34probably did down West Perth. I think
- 1:35they did. Yeah, definitely owned it.
- 1:39Love to know that. Anyway, back to
- 1:40Lithium. Mr. Joe Lowry, Mr. Lithium. Uh,
- 1:45come back. Bloody sorry I couldn't join
- 1:47us on this one. I hope you gave him more
- 1:48regards. Great fella. And uh what's
- 1:52what's the vibe? What is the vibe? The
- 1:55vibe is that we want to be
- 1:56counteryclical, Matthew. And as we sort
- 1:59of discuss in the show, lithium is very
- 2:01beaten up. No surprise to anyone. And
- 2:03why not have a chat about it with none
- 2:05other than Mr. Lithium. He covered
- 2:07everything under the sun in lithium
- 2:10world from the M&A that we've seen in
- 2:12recent times, the supply demand dynamic
- 2:15and the conversation really came off the
- 2:16back of his awesome write up on how the
- 2:19Chinese have dominated the lithium space
- 2:21in the battery metal battery metals and
- 2:23battery making arena for the last 5 10
- 2:27years. So I think that's all you kind of
- 2:29need to know for this one. So
- 2:30counteryclical you're saying find
- 2:32something that's gone down shitloads and
- 2:34hope it goes back up.
- 2:36Yeah, exactly in a nutshell. Right now,
- 2:39let's get into M Mr. Lithium. Mr.
- 2:42Lithium, we are very excited to to have
- 2:45you back on the show. It's been well
- 2:46over a year now and with where where
- 2:49lithium markets have been and the kind
- 2:51of general sentiment around the space.
- 2:53We thought it'd be a great time to get
- 2:55you back on the show. And then you
- 2:57actually published a a little piece on
- 3:00LinkedIn, the lithium art of war. And
- 3:03yeah, I never thought I'd lead in the
- 3:05podcast with a bit of Sunsu, but I think
- 3:07it's quite fitting
- 3:10given given your paper. So there was
- 3:12some fascinating sort of points and it
- 3:14sort of puts into perspective the uh the
- 3:17rise and rise of of China and the and
- 3:19the kind of falling off of the west. But
- 3:22yeah, keen keen to start the podcast to
- 3:24understand what was the the inspiration
- 3:26to to put into words what has happened
- 3:28over the past 15 20 years in the lithium
- 3:32arena.
- 3:34Well, as a proud
- 3:37American,
- 3:39I bewail our falling off a cliff,
- 3:43falling off the lithium cliff. Uh, over
- 3:46the years, over the, you know, when I
- 3:49started, everything that went to the
- 3:51battery industry was from the US, mined
- 3:54in the US, processed in the US, and and
- 3:56that was it was shortlived. It was only
- 3:59three or four years because we did not
- 4:01have the capacity at the time. and had
- 4:04to make a transition from hard rock to
- 4:07brine. But
- 4:08I really tire of the whining on the US.
- 4:14Well, I won't even limit it to the US.
- 4:16Europe too and in uh frame it more
- 4:20broadly, North America uh in Europe
- 4:23about China's unfair competition and how
- 4:28they've
- 4:29dominated. They were terrible at all
- 4:32this.
- 4:33for the better part of 15
- 4:36years, but they stuck with their
- 4:39program. You know, I can go back
- 4:42as recently
- 4:44as 2009, 2010. Nobody would buy Chinese
- 4:48material unless it was low-end stuff.
- 4:51The European Greece guys uh would buy
- 4:53their
- 4:54hydroxide. Uh but the Koreans and the
- 4:57Japanese who at that time still were
- 4:58dominant in the battery supply chain,
- 5:01they wouldn't touch um Chinese material.
- 5:04Gangfen didn't even start making
- 5:07carbonate and hydroxide until the last
- 5:1015 years. So they existed for over a
- 5:13decade before they even uh were in a
- 5:16financial position uh
- 5:17[Music]
- 5:19to put the capital and to convert.
- 5:23So it it's been an interesting rise and
- 5:26you know highlighted Gangfan. I could
- 5:27have just as easily talked about Tiani
- 5:29although I don't think their story is
- 5:31quite as interesting as Gang Fans. But
- 5:33then BYD also I I met BYD before I met
- 5:37Gangfen. Uh I I met BYD 25 years ago and
- 5:42was supplying them carbonate and uh
- 5:45cathode materials which we made it a
- 5:47joint venture uh in Japan and I saw that
- 5:51rise because their beginnings were very
- 5:54very humble as well and CL before their
- 5:58doing EVs right oh yeah this this was
- 6:02all they went up into the hinterland and
- 6:05got a bunch of teenage girls to make uh
- 6:08crummy batteries by hand. And literally,
- 6:11I mean, they put their capital in the
- 6:13testing equipment because back then, and
- 6:15and this is really fascinating, the
- 6:18first time I went to their
- 6:22facility, they were bragging about
- 6:25how making things by hand was actually a
- 6:28strength because they could pivot faster
- 6:30than Sony could. But they also were
- 6:34honest enough to say that most of their
- 6:36batteries couldn't be sold to the
- 6:38international cell phone market, which
- 6:40back then was two names you guys
- 6:42probably don't you might be familiar
- 6:44with. Nokia and Motorola. They were the
- 6:47big cell phone guys back then. I mean,
- 6:48it kind This was after the Gordon Gecko
- 6:51shoecase. Um, we're not that young, Joe.
- 6:54We We remember those.
- 6:57We I reckon we both owned one of them.
- 7:01Definitely. The United States did not
- 7:03have I mean myself I at the when I lived
- 7:06in Asia I had three cell phones. I had a
- 7:08China cell because roaming wasn't really
- 7:10a thing early on. So I had a China cell
- 7:12phone for trips to China. I was living
- 7:14in Japan. I had a Japanese cell phone
- 7:16and I had a US cell phone. And my US
- 7:19cell phone had a nickel metal hydride
- 7:22battery back then. So it was pre-
- 7:25lithium.
- 7:27Yeah. And looking at the market caps of
- 7:29these companies, I think just to to
- 7:31state the numbers so people really
- 7:33appreciate it, like BYD is in Aussie
- 7:36dollar terms $215 billion. So 2/3 of
- 7:40that to get the US market cap and cattle
- 7:42is about the same. Like these companies
- 7:45are they're bigger than BHB now. It's
- 7:47it's remarkable the um the the rise and
- 7:51rise. I want I want to hone in on on
- 7:53cattle for a second, Joe, because the
- 7:57the really interesting part that's stuck
- 7:59out to me from your writing was on their
- 8:02appreciation of vertical integration and
- 8:04what they learned in the the latest wild
- 8:07ride that we saw in that 21 22 boom and
- 8:11they you know went on to to purchase
- 8:13these lipid operations. How do you kind
- 8:16of put that in in perspective and you
- 8:19know think about how they might utilize
- 8:22those operations and the learnings
- 8:23they've got from that going forward over
- 8:25the next sort of 10 20 years?
- 8:28I I think it's even broader than just
- 8:31what CL did. But to go with the
- 8:37question in the 2022
- 8:40runup they had to try to keep their
- 8:43share. had a a program where they were
- 8:46guaranteeing that the form the price
- 8:48lithium price in the formula would be
- 8:51basically the equivalent of 20,000
- 8:53pricing which they lost a lot of money
- 8:56on as the price continued to rise and
- 8:59these guys are very smart people and
- 9:02they move
- 9:03fast. They didn't like what was
- 9:05happening.
- 9:08They realized that if price was just
- 9:10going to keep going up
- 9:11that they could
- 9:14exploit what were very well-known
- 9:17resources. They just weren't economic in
- 9:20any other lithium
- 9:23cycle. And it goes way beyond that
- 9:26though that the lepitoolite came on and
- 9:30then all the African
- 9:33move
- 9:35and they figured out I think really
- 9:38quickly how they're going to manage the
- 9:40next cycle because there's layers of you
- 9:44know the cost curve. uh your last
- 9:47lithium guest talked about the uh you
- 9:50know the concept of the steepening cost
- 9:51curve and that is certainly true and now
- 9:55I think that is going to be the the
- 9:58buffer on significant price runs in the
- 10:01future because all the Chinese
- 10:04converters know where this stuff is
- 10:07whether it's DSO or 2.5 or whatever the
- 10:11grades are Africa's has such a diversity
- 10:14of they have decent lithium and they
- 10:16have a lot of garbage, but when the
- 10:18price runs up to 35,000, then 40,000 and
- 10:21then all the way up to 80, you can use
- 10:24any of that stuff. And I think that the
- 10:30last
- 10:32cycle taught all of
- 10:35China, all their lithium supply chain,
- 10:39uh, how they'll react next time. I mean,
- 10:42it seemed quick in 2022, 2023. It'll be
- 10:45quicker next time. But I also believe
- 10:48there will be a shortage and there will
- 10:50be a price spike. Because on the other
- 10:52hand of what CL's done and and I think
- 10:56there's fair consensus that there's a
- 10:59lot of misinformation out there. If you
- 11:01go back to 2022, they were CO was
- 11:04pumping the sodium ion battery and how
- 11:06great it was going to be and the share
- 11:07it was going to get and they they knew
- 11:10the limitations of that. But it it was
- 11:13rhetoric that scared the
- 11:16West and that's that's the game. They've
- 11:20they've done a great job of
- 11:23disincentivizing capital from chasing
- 11:28um what I would call mediocre projects.
- 11:31No mediocre projects for MMS. All class
- 11:35boys. Ask me anything about MMS and
- 11:39mining. Does open pit mining have a
- 11:42relationship with underground mining?
- 11:44Matthew interesting question. Well,
- 11:47let's consider that Blackat have just
- 11:51taken pretty much same myes going
- 11:53underground. Now, if we can link that
- 11:55back to MMS, their superior performance
- 11:59at my getting there quicker obviously
- 12:01leaving it in schmeo condition. All the
- 12:04bloody walls are just ready to punch
- 12:06portals in. I would say yes. MMS have
- 12:10pretty much Blackat have said, "Holy
- 12:12shit, we can go underground now. We
- 12:14weren't expecting to be here. Thank you,
- 12:16MMS. That is pretty much what's
- 12:18happening. So, answer to your question,
- 12:20JD. Yes, if you buy the open pit quick
- 12:24at a superior quality, yes, it makes
- 12:27your underground better and sooner. If I
- 12:29understand you right, Matthew, that
- 12:31means earlier cash flow for you, the
- 12:34mining company. Well, that you probably
- 12:36just start just getting double the cash
- 12:38flow cuz the pit's still going. You
- 12:39didn't sterilize your body. You looked
- 12:40after it. Twice as much cash flow, five
- 12:43times as quicker, and your share price
- 12:45goes up like black cat when MMS is your
- 12:48trusted mining partner. Seems like a
- 12:49no-brainer to me, mate. Isn't it? What?
- 12:52Let's get back in the boot. Joe,
- 12:56just to tease that out even more, Joe,
- 12:57like what's their what's the the
- 12:59economic incentive for them to do do so?
- 13:02Well, take BYD and CL
- 13:05together. They're almost half of global
- 13:07lithium demand.
- 13:09two companies. We never had that
- 13:12situation before. If you look
- 13:15at 1.2 2 terowatt hours total last year
- 13:20roughly and BYD and CL being half of
- 13:24that and I'm a little more conservative
- 13:27on my lithium intensity than your guest
- 13:30from Singapore but any way you calculate
- 13:33it they
- 13:36are far and away the dominant purchaser
- 13:39of lithium values in whatever form
- 13:41whether it's cells cathode
- 13:44whatever and they have every incentive
- 13:46in the world to run a mine or a couple
- 13:50of mines at a loss. If you're buying
- 13:54three or 400,000 tons of
- 13:57LCE and you take a beating on 40, 50,
- 14:0160,000 tons, but you keep your
- 14:04other
- 14:07purchases 89 $10 below what they would
- 14:11run up to if you weren't doing that.
- 14:14It's it's not rocket science.
- 14:19If we if we go back once more, Joe, to
- 14:23to really set set the foundation for for
- 14:25this rise of these these Chinese
- 14:27companies, one of the other points you
- 14:29you make and and others have sort of
- 14:30made and you see it across all all
- 14:33industries, but you know, you know, very
- 14:35obviously in in the EV and the battery
- 14:37sort of space is the the way in which
- 14:40government and industry kind of mesh and
- 14:43and work together and they kind of
- 14:45coordinate to to achieve these
- 14:48strategic
- 14:49goals. When you look at like BYD and and
- 14:52cattle now, do do you see them as
- 14:54um being able to kind of run their own
- 14:56race and the the government has kind of
- 14:58just tap them in line when when that
- 15:00needs to kind of happen, but they're
- 15:02they're free to sort of do so or how do
- 15:04you view the the government and
- 15:07enterprise sort of relationship today?
- 15:10I think you just phrased it very well.
- 15:14they let them run until they have
- 15:18something to say. And I I think you you
- 15:20saw that I I don't know if it was the
- 15:23March meeting two years ago or when Xi
- 15:28Jinping told Robin Zong that uh he ought
- 15:30to be careful about going to the US and
- 15:32you needed to be dealing with friendly
- 15:36entities.
- 15:37um that I I'd have to go back and and
- 15:40Google that article, but it was it was
- 15:42pretty clear. And uh I think everybody
- 15:46knows the Jack Ma story. That's not a
- 15:48that's not a lithium story, but you
- 15:50know, they turned jack into a verb. You
- 15:53know, you get jack. So, I I think
- 15:56there's been a bit bit of a change
- 15:58lately though, right? the uh the the
- 16:00attitude towards successful business
- 16:02people is uh I don't know it's kind of
- 16:05altered a a little bit and Jack Mahar
- 16:07has you know been the been the face of
- 16:09that you you've seen him in public again
- 16:11which you didn't see for a number of
- 16:13years I think that's
- 16:15optics I think it's all optics right uh
- 16:20yeah I I not to be completely cynical
- 16:24but having lived there having watched it
- 16:27uh knowing some of these people.
- 16:30Um, you don't want to be the richest guy
- 16:33in China. You want to be three or four.
- 16:36When I lived there, there was two or
- 16:38three years where the person named the
- 16:40richest person in China was in jail the
- 16:43next year. I I used to love that saying
- 16:45that the fastest way to to die in in
- 16:47China is to become a billionaire.
- 16:52Yeah. But I mean, probably offended an
- 16:54entire nation there, so maybe I retract
- 16:56that one.
- 17:00I admire what China's done. I mean, that
- 17:03is my bottom line from the what I put up
- 17:06on on LinkedIn is that I think that it's
- 17:10very arrogant of North America or Europe
- 17:14to think they can do in a short period
- 17:16of time. what it literally took China
- 17:20decades to do with all the support put
- 17:23in place
- 17:26with I hired a lot of people when I
- 17:29lived in China and I always said I would
- 17:32much
- 17:34rather have to pick from a pool of
- 17:36Chinese talent than a pool of American
- 17:38talent. It's a tremendously industrious
- 17:41uh nation, right? Everybody wanted to
- 17:43get ahead. Um there there are nuances to
- 17:46how you manage Chinese uh young people.
- 17:51uh they're they do
- 17:53um probably need a little more stroking
- 17:57in terms
- 17:59of having a lot of the I managed
- 18:02different age groups and the young
- 18:03people were a little more aggressive but
- 18:05uh the people that had mom and dad went
- 18:09through the cultural revolution they had
- 18:10a respect for authority that uh you
- 18:13didn't really see so much in in the US
- 18:15at the time but there the 50 years of
- 18:19communism I used to say when I was
- 18:22living there didn't beat the
- 18:23entrepreneurial spirit out of the
- 18:25Chinese people.
- 18:27That's that that point is is often a bit
- 18:30lost in the commentary around China is
- 18:31just the the relative competitiveness
- 18:33that does exist amongst um you know the
- 18:36centralized government.
- 18:39It was the old saw, especially in in the
- 18:43early days of cathode, was once a
- 18:46company started making decent
- 18:48cathode, then one of their lead guys
- 18:51would quit, go down the street and open
- 18:53up another cathode uh supplier. It was
- 18:57just people wanted to be their own
- 19:00boss. And
- 19:02I admired
- 19:06the really
- 19:09the hard work, the the work ethic was
- 19:13impressive and so I may not like
- 19:18um Mr. Shei much, but I admire the
- 19:23Chinese people and will continue to do
- 19:25so. The supreme art of war is to subdue
- 19:27the enemy without fighting. How does
- 19:30this relate to lithium, Joe?
- 19:33Well, it it really does. And not to hype
- 19:37my podcast, but if you go back and
- 19:38listen to the episode not lost in
- 19:40translation with Leel Bing and Wang
- 19:43Xiaoen, I mean they talked about the
- 19:44early days they had
- 19:48to deal with everybody. They were the
- 19:52supplicants.
- 19:54They
- 19:55never there was never a discouraging
- 19:58word said. Um, but they knew where they
- 20:02wanted to go. And that was one of the
- 20:04things that I always told people that
- 20:06were dealing with them cuz I I made a
- 20:09presentation at Panorama Monero event
- 20:12last
- 20:13October and I showed gang fence slides
- 20:17that they had presented to me in
- 20:192005 about wanting to
- 20:22become a
- 20:26strong domestic
- 20:28supplier. And then they wanted to become
- 20:31a regional player. And this is not
- 20:34incarbonating hydroxide. This was in the
- 20:36downstream because they they had enough
- 20:38capital to to have a metal plant and
- 20:40they had enough capital to try to
- 20:43dothium. Um but I think if you look at
- 20:47the three companies I highlight in that
- 20:49article,
- 20:51they all started off
- 20:55with technology from other people.
- 20:59I mean
- 21:00CL's technology was came from
- 21:04Japan and or ATL did and then CL was an
- 21:08offshoot of that and there was always
- 21:12the the Chinese concept of they would
- 21:15always say you know big brother I need
- 21:19help and uh it
- 21:22wasn't it wasn't until they got to
- 21:25the where they are today that they
- 21:29now publicly still show the humility,
- 21:33but those guys are very confident in who
- 21:36they are and where they're going and
- 21:37they're certainly not afraid of anybody
- 21:38outside of China.
- 21:41On on the conversion front, like just
- 21:43how how many like how many years ahead
- 21:46like realistically would they be if if
- 21:47the you know if the if the the West
- 21:49tried to replicate some of some of that
- 21:51capability?
- 21:54Well, the the capability really came
- 21:56from the
- 21:57west. Truth be told, they learned how to
- 22:01convert spamine from us. We didn't
- 22:03learn. Now, we quit doing it. and they
- 22:08have a huge cost
- 22:11advantage. But, you know, that's that's
- 22:14something that I always push back on is
- 22:17that, you know, when they were talking
- 22:19about technologies that they were going
- 22:22to might limit the export of and one of
- 22:24the things they talked about was hard
- 22:26rock conversion and it was like really
- 22:29um we actually started that. So
- 22:33um but I take the question
- 22:36seriously. I look at
- 22:39Tesla Corpus Christi. They announced
- 22:42that the the calsider was turning but
- 22:45they haven't uh I haven't I haven't seen
- 22:47a lot of announcements about the great
- 22:49quality product that they're producing
- 22:50because uh it's not happening. uh as far
- 22:53as I know. Uh I don't want to get into
- 22:55trouble if they have been
- 22:59sneaking product to cathode makers, but
- 23:02I think I would know. Uh I I do think
- 23:06we're more hamstrung on the permitting
- 23:10side, the financing
- 23:12side.
- 23:14Um and and I think it's
- 23:17probably I would say the gap in simply
- 23:21lithium
- 23:23uh we can't catch up and we shouldn't
- 23:27even try to catch
- 23:28up but we do need our own supply chain
- 23:32too and that's just
- 23:35because when I was there and
- 23:37watching early days when I was first
- 23:40making trips once a month between 2000
- 23:43and 2005 before I moved to China from
- 23:46Japan there were not that many
- 23:49converters and
- 23:51how I I don't I don't have a any idea
- 23:56how many dozen conversion facilities
- 23:58there are now, but uh you
- 24:02um you had easy money when they were
- 24:05trying to develop the West. Uh the the
- 24:09regional banks were propping up people
- 24:12that weren't making a dime for years.
- 24:15And we don't we don't have that kind of
- 24:18uh situation in America. So, I'd say
- 24:21that's as much the problem as just the
- 24:23pure
- 24:24technology because I can get on the
- 24:26phone and call a bunch of
- 24:28people that live
- 24:31within a few hours of where I'm sitting
- 24:35that could get a converter build if they
- 24:36had the money and and they could put it
- 24:38into operation relatively quickly if
- 24:41they could get it permitted.
- 24:43if uh all the things that you have to do
- 24:47besides just the engineering.
- 24:51So to your point on on us needing to
- 24:54have our own supply chain in in the west
- 24:56and and needing to compete, what what do
- 24:58you make of the the IRA and where that
- 25:01kind of stands now and what that kind of
- 25:04looks looks like and you know any other
- 25:07sort of similar government type package
- 25:10to to kind of chip away at China's
- 25:13dominance.
- 25:16Well, I am heartened that we are
- 25:20building Thecker
- 25:21Pass and all
- 25:24the issues that uh were in the way have
- 25:28been uh surmounted and that that that's
- 25:33being built and you know it's that was a
- 25:36huge loan. I mean 2.3 billions nothing
- 25:39to sneeze at and then it required some
- 25:42other uh additional financing and that's
- 25:44all in place. Uh I think it's being well
- 25:48supported by the local governments the
- 25:51the national governments but that's one
- 25:5540,000 ton plant that can expand to 80.
- 25:58It's it's a
- 26:01beginning. The real open question in
- 26:05North
- 26:07America is well there's there's more
- 26:10than one but how fast do the Exxons and
- 26:15Ecuadors
- 26:18move? Riotinto put real money into their
- 26:22lithium effort. I'm not saying that the
- 26:25oil companies have aren't willing to put
- 26:27real money in, but so far it's
- 26:30been kind of a slow roll as they they
- 26:34learn and they're not uh it isn't a
- 26:38Manhattan project speed scenario is
- 26:42probably the the kindest way to put it.
- 26:46I don't think a company like Rio is is
- 26:49capable of a a Manhattan type style or
- 26:52speed of operation in in all fairness to
- 26:54them. It's just not their their sort of
- 26:56MMO.
- 26:58Oh, and and I I was thrilled that Real
- 27:01put the capital in, but I've said on my
- 27:05podcast, I've said it in writing, I've
- 27:06said it on
- 27:08X, I don't think they speed this up.
- 27:13I think
- 27:15that they have the balance sheet to do
- 27:18all the projects that they own, but they
- 27:21don't have the skills yet. And I, you
- 27:26know,
- 27:27heard a recent guest um talk
- 27:31about all the skills that Arcadium had.
- 27:34Well, let's let's I'll just take it I'll
- 27:38just personalize it to my experience. I
- 27:40left FMC Lithium in
- 27:432012. 10 years later, they were
- 27:46producing the same amount of
- 27:48LCEEs as they were when I left. That's
- 27:51after announcing expansions. That's
- 27:53after a lot of
- 27:54rhetoric. And they didn't execute.
- 28:00Some of it could be laid on
- 28:03to financial
- 28:07issues, but that to me was more of an
- 28:10excuse. And I think Rio's already made a
- 28:12huge mistake in keeping that management
- 28:15intact. Um, they didn't get it done as
- 28:18live. They didn't get it done as
- 28:21separately as all chem and they didn't
- 28:24get it done as Arcadium.
- 28:26So
- 28:28why do you want to keep the same
- 28:31management
- 28:32intact who didn't perform who just had a
- 28:35portfolio of really good
- 28:37assets? It and I and I actually said
- 28:40that to Rio's head of battery metals at
- 28:43Beimo. I had a meeting with him and
- 28:45said, "You guys have already made
- 28:46mistake number one." Didn't they make
- 28:48Paul Graves the head of CEO of lithium?
- 28:50He's the CEO of Yeah. Yeah. I I like
- 28:53Paul. Paul's a nice guy. Yeah. But let's
- 28:56go. Let's look at the you should judge
- 28:58people by the
- 29:00record and
- 29:03um and I yeah I made the statement when
- 29:06Arcadium was formed. I made the
- 29:07statement that it made sense to have
- 29:09Paul run it because he's a banker and
- 29:11he'll he'll he'll be able to sell
- 29:13it and he did that and they should have
- 29:17thanked him and moved on.
- 29:20What what did you make of the price tag
- 29:22at the like to to just speak to that the
- 29:24financial aspect of of that that deal?
- 29:31I think Paul's a banker and I think Paul
- 29:34got a good price. I don't think it
- 29:37was as bad as some of Riot's other deals
- 29:41maybe. Uh but I don't want to go too far
- 29:43down. That's a high bar to to beat.
- 29:46Well, that's hence the comment.
- 29:50I I do I I've got to I mean before we
- 29:53even kind of venture into some of the
- 29:55grounds of of of the deal landscape and
- 29:57everything like that. I feel like the
- 29:59maybe even the most topical um thing to
- 30:02to talk about is like the last few days
- 30:04we've just been watching the the lithium
- 30:06equities in particular here just
- 30:08absolutely crater. Um I mean to today as
- 30:11we wake up and we're recording it might
- 30:12be a bit of a bounce but um it it it
- 30:15almost seems like there's a really huge
- 30:16response to to tariffs as they relate to
- 30:19the lithium mining equities that we have
- 30:21like Pilgor PLS now they call themselves
- 30:24not P minerals PLS they're like a dollar
- 30:2620 20 odd but 26 yesterday at some point
- 30:29it's just um yeah amazing and mins is I
- 30:33mean at 31 and 34 cents so I'm I'm still
- 30:36I'm still hanging in so so is this is
- 30:39this like is this is this tariffs? Is
- 30:41this is that what this is? Like what are
- 30:43the like what's No, I think I think the
- 30:45the sentiment in lithium is worse in
- 30:482025 than it was in the dark days of
- 30:52less than $4,000 a ton that SQM and
- 30:56Oracle Cobra sold into China at during
- 30:592020. Um in some cases that wasn't their
- 31:02average price, but it got that low and
- 31:04you're still in the 10,000 range now.
- 31:07But the sentiment is still so
- 31:10negative. You know, two years ago at
- 31:14Beimo, every uranium company was talking
- 31:17about they might have lithium and gold
- 31:18guys were the same. Now it's the
- 31:20opposite. Every lithium guy is like,
- 31:22"Hey, maybe we'll go maybe we'll go for
- 31:25uranium."
- 31:26Um, I I don't think I think it's just
- 31:31the
- 31:32overall the market's
- 31:35down and it's easy to be negative
- 31:41on lithium used to
- 31:43track
- 31:45Tesla, you know, several years ago. And
- 31:48right now, I mean, people that drive
- 31:51Tesla are getting spit out, their cars
- 31:52getting spit on at stop lightss because
- 31:54everybody's mad at Elon. So,
- 31:57um, right now,
- 32:01America's, you know, going through a
- 32:03umoment interesting time. Well, some of
- 32:05it must like there must be kind of a
- 32:07part of it that is related to
- 32:08expectations of like in recessionary
- 32:10conditions, like where's the
- 32:11discretionary spend on lithium coming
- 32:12from? Plus combine it with how much of
- 32:14the you know the best um demand would it
- 32:16come from the US and all of a sudden the
- 32:18tariffs might make those you know
- 32:19individual projects or growth forecasts
- 32:21kind of uneconomic for the time being
- 32:23and then some short-term you know um so
- 32:26some of it must be a factor of what is a
- 32:28what is a response to the the tariffs
- 32:30and kind of recessionary kind of um
- 32:32conjecture but do you think that in the
- 32:34long run that kind of just gets washed
- 32:36out? I I think look what happened today.
- 32:39The market roared in America. Tariffs
- 32:42paused
- 32:43after Yeah. I mean Well, that's just my
- 32:48my entire my entire point is that
- 32:53give it 90 days
- 32:55to 6 months to see what Trump does next.
- 33:01Uh yeah, I think I don't think lithium's
- 33:06suffering more than the o other
- 33:09stocks. I mean, I I sold some Apple at
- 33:13236 several weeks ago and bought it back
- 33:17in
- 33:19180. So, I'm using this time to
- 33:26adjust my portfolio, shall we say.
- 33:30If we if we look at the supply side of
- 33:33the supply demand dynamic, h how do you
- 33:37currently sort of think about say over
- 33:40the next kind of three years your your
- 33:42kind of view versus consensus on on
- 33:45projects that can get up and running?
- 33:47Are you are you a bit more kind of
- 33:49bullish or do you think the consensus is
- 33:52is a bit lofty? Where do you see that at
- 33:53the moment, Joe? Well, tell me what you
- 33:56think consensus is. That that would be
- 33:58for point one. I think that um let's
- 34:02look at South
- 34:04America. Aaron met with great
- 34:07fanfare shipped 40
- 34:11tons. How many weeks ago? They're
- 34:15struggling. People don't like to talk
- 34:17about that,
- 34:19but it's hard bringing these projects
- 34:22on.
- 34:24and uh
- 34:27Aramat
- 34:29wasn't really sure
- 34:31of how to run their DLE at scale, I
- 34:34think, and they're they're learning on a
- 34:36job.
- 34:39Um people talk love to talk about Zigen
- 34:42and three Q's. How much have they
- 34:45produced?
- 34:47Um, I I think it's it's there's going to
- 34:50continue to be a struggle in 25 26 from
- 34:55some of the projects out there. And then
- 34:56you got the smaller projects that can't
- 34:59get
- 35:00financed. Um, I mean, if you go back to
- 35:02the art of war bit, um, that's another
- 35:05one of the benefits of misinformation
- 35:08and misdirection.
- 35:10as asset prices are go lower, the
- 35:15Chinese can pick them up cheaper to the
- 35:17extent that they're allowed to do that
- 35:18if it doesn't get, you know, you you
- 35:20take the geopolitics
- 35:22uh which are are also a factor. But
- 35:26ultimately, CL is going to pay the price
- 35:28for for this because they're, you know,
- 35:31they can't as the market goes from
- 35:34850,000 when they started this whole
- 35:36thing with Litoolyte to 2 million, their
- 35:40ability to use a couple of Leitoolyte
- 35:44mines to control the narrative is is is
- 35:47going to be tougher. Although, as I said
- 35:49earlier, we they've also
- 35:53identified what projects are economic at
- 35:55what
- 35:56prices. And it's really instructive to
- 35:59see what capacity came off when price
- 36:01got to 40. What project came off when
- 36:04price got to 30. You're going to see the
- 36:07the reverse when if if price goes up.
- 36:09And I price never should have gotten to
- 36:1240,000 in my opinion, but um I price
- 36:17can't stay where it is. Look at the look
- 36:20at the financials of all the lithium
- 36:21companies and how many adjustments can
- 36:25you make to IBIDA to try to make the
- 36:27story look good.
- 36:31Depends how creative you are, John.
- 36:32Yeah, I know a few creative lithium
- 36:33companies.
- 36:38wouldn't be the uh the only sector that
- 36:40chucks in a few adjustments to to EB.
- 36:41But uh what did you make of the um the
- 36:44SQM comments? I think about a month ago.
- 36:47Now they they sort of forecast 25 to be
- 36:50flattish and that's not what some people
- 36:53wanted to hear and then they sort of
- 36:54spoke to a bit of a a pickup. How do you
- 36:57kind of wait what what those guys kind
- 37:00of say? What's your view on them?
- 37:04I don't think price is going to break
- 37:08out in 2025 either, but if you you look
- 37:11at the history of SQN, they've always
- 37:13been very conservative about how they
- 37:15talked about price and I think that that
- 37:20continues. Uh, so
- 37:22I I just I always take the price
- 37:28forecast
- 37:29rhetoric with a with a grain of salt,
- 37:31but I don't I don't disagree with them
- 37:33either in this this
- 37:37time. I think there's enough lithium
- 37:40values rolling around in China that
- 37:43price doesn't break out. I think it'll
- 37:46be higher at the end of the year than it
- 37:47was at the beginning of the year, but I
- 37:48don't think it I I think that's a small
- 37:50number. And I think you get your spike,
- 37:53and I've said this publicly several
- 37:55times so far this year. I think Q4
- 37:592026, you'll start to see a little bit
- 38:01of a
- 38:03run. Look at the gigawatt hours that are
- 38:06being
- 38:07made. Look at the Western rhetoric is
- 38:11all
- 38:13about EVs haven't grown as much as some
- 38:16people expected in the United States.
- 38:17The United States isn't that big of a
- 38:19deal right now. in in the EV world
- 38:23and China continues to go from strength
- 38:25to strength and their exports are are
- 38:28growing
- 38:28and and best
- 38:31is exceeding everybody's expectations.
- 38:34So it's it's it's all about the gigawatt
- 38:37hours or terowatt hours now.
- 38:42So, so in that kind of subdued
- 38:44environment, obviously you kind of
- 38:46mentioned there that the potential for
- 38:48Chinese given geopolitics to to scoop
- 38:51up, but we have seen a couple other
- 38:52deals which I'm keen to to get your take
- 38:55on. Pilro PLS, a company we know you're
- 38:59quite supportive of, went to went to
- 39:01Latin America, they went to Brazil and
- 39:03and scooped up Latin resources. What
- 39:07what was your kind of perspective on on
- 39:09that deal? Did you just go to I thought
- 39:11it was a good I I'll be there in two
- 39:13weeks. Two weeks. Gotcha. Yeah. Yeah.
- 39:15I'll be actually I'll be flying back two
- 39:17weeks from tonight. Um so
- 39:21I I like the Latin story. Um Sigma's
- 39:26done a a surprisingly good job. Uh and I
- 39:30only say surprisingly because people had
- 39:32low expectations on Brazil. I mean, if
- 39:35you look at
- 39:36the
- 39:38lithium, the lithium world tends
- 39:41to adopt change slowly, shall we say,
- 39:45and uh Brazil's really performed uh
- 39:49better. And you know, there's there's
- 39:51multiple projects down there. And I
- 39:53literally haven't been in Brazil since
- 39:551996. So, I go to South America a couple
- 39:59times a year, but the last time I was in
- 40:02Brazil was to try to uh get the nuclear
- 40:05ban lifted they had. And we used to have
- 40:08to get a license every time we sold into
- 40:10Brazil and it was a cumbersome process.
- 40:13So, I'm happy to be going back to
- 40:15Brazil. I think Dale made a really good
- 40:17decision. I Dale's a very methodical guy
- 40:20and uh I think some messages were also
- 40:23being sent there that hey this is it
- 40:26isn't just WA.
- 40:28Yeah. Well, that message was clearly
- 40:30sent when they removed their name from
- 40:31being Hilbert to PLS but that came
- 40:34later. But it is it's also a statement
- 40:36about the you know their isn't it PLS
- 40:38global? It I I can't remember you're
- 40:40probably right but um yeah the uh just
- 40:43emphasizes the point. It's also a
- 40:45statement about you know their their you
- 40:47know probable views on on you know
- 40:49capital intensity and and opex of the
- 40:51the relative jurisdictions too.
- 40:54Yes. I think uh the other Brazil is
- 40:57interesting too because they're likely
- 40:59to have the full-blown supply chain. You
- 41:03know, BYD
- 41:05is very active down there and we'll
- 41:09we'll see what happens whether whether
- 41:12they have a full-blown supply chain
- 41:14before America does. It could happen.
- 41:20That would be that'd be quite something
- 41:22to to behold. There there was one more
- 41:24um bit of bit of insight I wanted to get
- 41:27from you that was kind of company
- 41:29specific and it's it's in the um the
- 41:32sort of West Farmers
- 41:34SQM joint venture that we see here
- 41:36because we really struggle to get good
- 41:38info but we saw on the M&A front rumors
- 41:41that Indian groups were looking to to
- 41:44buy a sort of 20% stake off
- 41:47SQM's portion. What what's your sort of
- 41:51latest info that you've got on on Mount
- 41:53Holland and and the refinery that
- 41:55they're they're doing and any potential
- 41:57insight on on the deal? I can't really
- 42:00speak to
- 42:02um exactly what's going on at Mount
- 42:04Holland, but I can tell you from uh
- 42:07talking to some of the larger industrial
- 42:09companies in India that they have a real
- 42:12interest in when a company comes and
- 42:15says we're we're going to spend in the
- 42:18range of 5 to 15 billion dollars to try
- 42:21to go across the energy storage system
- 42:25supply chain. and we to do that to have
- 42:28confidence we want to
- 42:30be vertically integrated
- 42:33um and it's a credible it's a credible
- 42:35entity and I've talked to multiple
- 42:37entities in India um I can't speak to
- 42:41their specific interest in SQM because I
- 42:43actually told ought to go to Argentina
- 42:45but
- 42:47um we we'll see I I think it's
- 42:50completely plausible and I think SQM got
- 42:54outside of their knitting
- 42:56by going to
- 42:57WA and I think it's been a tough slog
- 43:02and
- 43:03um maybe when I'm in Western Australia
- 43:07in the not too distant future I will I
- 43:11will get better information but that's
- 43:15just been
- 43:16a a tough slog for both West Farmers and
- 43:20SQ totally totally I mean that it was it
- 43:24was such an interesting moved basem to
- 43:25come to to to WA in the hard rock and
- 43:28and in some ways kind of forced upon
- 43:29them by the dynamics of operating in in
- 43:31Chile. They could have gone to
- 43:32Argentina. They could have. Yeah. Yeah.
- 43:34Yeah. Yeah. That's a and done what they
- 43:36know how to do. Valid point for for
- 43:38sure. Um Yeah. It is funny to look at
- 43:42that. Although they had they had one
- 43:43excursion into Argentina that didn't
- 43:45work out too well and Gang Ven bought
- 43:46him out. Um, but they I think they would
- 43:50have had much greater
- 43:53success figuring out Argentina brine
- 43:56versus out of brine rather than going to
- 43:59Hard Rock. And I think uh Mr. Ramos
- 44:02drank a little bit of the Chris Ellison
- 44:05Kool-Aid. And um they'll pay the price
- 44:08for it.
- 44:12It's a big price to pay that one. was
- 44:16I didn't say this was a happy story.
- 44:20Uh
- 44:22there's not too many happy stories in
- 44:23the lithium land at the moment. You
- 44:25think? Um just Yeah, I know you guys
- 44:27like to pan lithium. It's it's been it's
- 44:29been tough. But
- 44:30[Music]
- 44:32um what
- 44:35other and I will I will pander to you
- 44:38Jonas and say commodity has grown
- 44:4110x in a decade? I I I take the other
- 44:45side Joe. I I think you know from from
- 44:48our perspective we're more excited than
- 44:51we have been in in a long time on on
- 44:55lithium because it's trading so hard in
- 44:56the cost curve. I think there's a the
- 44:58realization though that our assets in
- 45:01our backyard here in in WA perhaps don't
- 45:04sit on the cost curve where we
- 45:06previously might have thought they sit
- 45:09are uh um yeah is it it's a bit appeal
- 45:13to kind of swallow for a lot of folks
- 45:15down here but you know it throws up sort
- 45:17of opportunities and I guess another
- 45:19point I was curious to get your take on
- 45:20is like green bushes it's it's tied up
- 45:23in a in a gnarly kind of ownership
- 45:25structure But there comes a point in
- 45:28time where if you're looking at WA
- 45:30assets, the ones in our backyard here,
- 45:33that green bushes is is certainly one of
- 45:36the better ones there. So, how do you
- 45:38kind of view that and how do you view
- 45:39picking out assets that sit low in the
- 45:42cost curve in a in a uh a commodity or a
- 45:46specialty chemical as you as you kind of
- 45:48say when it's really beaten up? Well,
- 45:51I'm glad we're trying to speak each
- 45:53other's languages here.
- 45:55Um, well, Green Bushes is the best
- 45:58operating hard rock asset in the world.
- 46:01I mean, it's
- 46:03it's not what it once was, but it's
- 46:07still head and
- 46:10shoulders above the other from a cost
- 46:13perspective. The problem with green
- 46:16bushes from my perspective is the
- 46:17convoluted
- 46:19ownership and it would be better placed
- 46:22in one company's hands. That's not the
- 46:25case. Uh I I got to meet Ivan from IGGO
- 46:28in Florida in February. Likable guy. I
- 46:33am, you know, hoping that things turn
- 46:36around for them. And uh but it's it
- 46:41first of all having Abal
- 46:43Marl who hasn't is has zigged when they
- 46:46should have zagged and zagged when they
- 46:48should have zigged for the last seven or
- 46:50eight years. That's tough. Tanchi's got
- 46:54their own set of
- 46:57problems and
- 46:59layering on two failed hydroxide
- 47:01projects to the world's greatest hard
- 47:04rock asset just makes
- 47:07it all the more a sad story
- 47:11for the lithium industry.
- 47:17What What does the uh the future sort of
- 47:19hold for for Alamar? you've you've um
- 47:22you know been been vocal on on your
- 47:24thoughts on on a range of dynamics at
- 47:27play within within the company, but in a
- 47:30in a downturn in a company with with
- 47:33debt, the the challenges can be pretty
- 47:36pretty sort of pressing. How do you
- 47:37foresee the the next few years playing
- 47:39out if we sort of stay where we are and
- 47:42are sort of perhaps plus 20 plus 30%
- 47:45bound on on lithium prices?
- 47:48Yeah, I think if you got plus
- 47:5030% the world would be a lot better
- 47:53place for Abomar, but Abomar's just made
- 47:57so many missteps and
- 48:01they just doing a podcast with them
- 48:06was which I was surprised they actually
- 48:08did, but um it was easier to arrange.
- 48:12I've never had more
- 48:15meetings to arrange a
- 48:17podcast than I did with Apple Marl.
- 48:19Apple Marl's a
- 48:21is has all the
- 48:24bureaucracy of a huge oil
- 48:27company and it's it's a it's a
- 48:29relatively small company. They hired too
- 48:32many people. They had VPs like a a bank.
- 48:38And and I, you know, I I continue to
- 48:41harp on it because I continue to get
- 48:43calls from people that leave the
- 48:44organization that want to bear their
- 48:47souls and I like to listen to it.
- 48:54I don't think there's a I think they
- 48:56need to clean out the leadership and I
- 48:59think they need a new board and I don't
- 49:00think that's about to happen. So I it
- 49:02just you can't have a palywousey board.
- 49:05You can't pay a guy that performed like
- 49:07Ken has the kind of money they've been
- 49:09paying him. It's just it's a travesty as
- 49:11far as I'm concerned.
- 49:16But I don't really have feelings about
- 49:17it.
- 49:20Yeah. It's it's hard hardressed to to
- 49:23argue with a lot of those those
- 49:24perspectives.
- 49:26No, they have the two two of the best
- 49:28assets out there.
- 49:30How can they be where they
- 49:33are? Lack of good strategy, lack of good
- 49:39tactics, and lack of good
- 49:42leadership culminates in pretty pretty
- 49:45questionable capital allocation. I mean,
- 49:46how many of their how many of their
- 49:48growth projects or or everything have
- 49:50just been like zero revenue generating
- 49:53decisions?
- 49:55I felt like I was reading Mad Magazine,
- 49:59which I'm sure you guys don't know what
- 50:00that is, but it it was a kind of a Yeah.
- 50:03Yeah. Mad Magazine kind of says it all.
- 50:08I when they were going to when they made
- 50:12the offer for Liontown, I thought this
- 50:14is straight out of Mad Magazine. I I
- 50:16don't get it. And that's no projorative
- 50:19on Liontown. I love the guys at Lion
- 50:21Town. Um, you know, it's it's tough
- 50:25times with the way the market is, but um
- 50:28I'm just saying that
- 50:31uh Gina Gina benevolently saved Apple
- 50:35Marl. That's that's probably the biggest
- 50:38irony of this decade in
- 50:45lithium. Who would have thought it would
- 50:47be like that? Well, yeah. Yeah, I mean
- 50:48this it's been wicked to um for us to
- 50:50ask you the questions that that we have
- 50:53about the space at the moment. Joe, go
- 50:56ahead. Punish me. I It's fine. Right. I
- 51:00mean, I I echo what Joda says, like, you
- 51:02know, we're we're we're of the yolk of
- 51:05certainly being more interested in
- 51:06commodities that are that are beaten up
- 51:07than than they are um when they're when
- 51:10they're flying kind of, you know,
- 51:12obviously the the interest is far far
- 51:15less um from from an audience
- 51:17perspective when commodities are beating
- 51:18up than when they're flying. But for us
- 51:20individuals who who look counterylically
- 51:22then yeah
- 51:24I am seeing in in what I do I I'm seeing
- 51:26there's there's a lot more interest now
- 51:29and I would just you asked a question
- 51:32about India potentially investing I
- 51:36think that's happening I think what
- 51:39Exxon and Ecuador are doing they're not
- 51:41worried about the vagaries of lithium
- 51:43price in the next three or four years it
- 51:44doesn't matter to them
- 51:47they they can do what they want to do
- 51:49and and that's the that's the positive
- 51:51side of the lithium
- 51:53story. But to be a junior lithium player
- 51:56right now
- 51:59is kind of like perpetual
- 52:05purgatory. The the the saving grace is
- 52:08that the the juniors flock with a sort
- 52:10of rear view type mirror, not a not a
- 52:13forward-looking type outlook. So yeah,
- 52:17put whatever sort of weight into that as
- 52:19you will. I' I'd be curious to to hear,
- 52:22Joe, one thing that we notice given
- 52:24we're we're both in the podcast uh to,
- 52:27you know, sort of game to an extent. Um
- 52:29we we definitely noticed the the
- 52:31interest in in lithium since we sort of
- 52:33started two years
- 52:34ago. Eb and flow, you know, it sort of
- 52:37was very high 2023 and it sort of trails
- 52:41off. Is is that a kind of sentiment
- 52:44gauge the the viewership that you get in
- 52:46your your podcast? Do you notice that
- 52:48sort of change substantially over, you
- 52:52know, because you've done it a lot
- 52:53longer than we have? Well, I I spare my
- 52:55audience the need to view me. It's just
- 52:58my voice. Um, but no, I the it's it's
- 53:03really funny. I mean, there's only one
- 53:05country on earth where I don't have a
- 53:07download, and that's
- 53:08Bhutan, and that's Spotify stats. 196
- 53:12countries. Um, I can predict the first
- 53:1748 hours the podcast is up. Doesn't
- 53:19matter who I have on, I'm going to hit
- 53:22this number, this hour, and and all the
- 53:26way through. Um, I really haven't
- 53:29noticed
- 53:31um much of a difference in
- 53:36um listenership.
- 53:39Interesting. Yeah, it is. I I have a I
- 53:44have a loyal following that they just
- 53:46like to punish themselves every couple
- 53:48of weeks. I don't know.
- 53:51There was there was a couple other um
- 53:53assets and and companies I wanted to get
- 53:55your your quick takes on. So, we spoke
- 53:58uh earlier in the week or maybe last
- 53:59week about um Galan. They uh subtly
- 54:03announced that they they bounced back an
- 54:06offer and then latest rumors they're
- 54:08coming out for a a capital raise. What's
- 54:10your what's your take on on the asset
- 54:13and on the uh the kind of strategy?
- 54:18They have been hamstrung by the market
- 54:22conditions and I know they have a lot of
- 54:26disgruntled
- 54:27shareholders. I understand
- 54:30um a lot of people bought at at the top
- 54:35and you are unhappy. But it if you look
- 54:38at what they're trying to do, it's it's
- 54:39a tough it's a tough market.
- 54:43Um I I don't I have a little money in
- 54:46Galan. I I I'm a little underwater. Not
- 54:50much because I you know didn't I I
- 54:54bought it very late. Um but I like I
- 54:59like JP. You know, I'm very close to
- 55:01Daniel Jimenez. Uh, I think it's a good
- 55:04asset and if I was going to sell it, I
- 55:06certainly wouldn't take the offer they
- 55:09got, but yeah, moving it
- 55:14forward is still a challenge.
- 55:20Yeah. Yeah, for sure. What one of the
- 55:22other assets was Gulamina and you spoke
- 55:25in a in a recent podcast about this sort
- 55:30of not not being the kind of focus in a
- 55:32sense that that Gangfang is prioritizing
- 55:35Brian's but this is obviously a
- 55:38substantial project and we we hear about
- 55:41it a lot less since the uh you know the
- 55:46the the since it's not Leo Lithium
- 55:49anymore. Yeah. In a nutshell,
- 55:52yeah, I think Gang
- 55:55Fan as well as they've done has a lot of
- 55:58challenges because they have
- 56:02multiple good brine projects,
- 56:05but Gangfen likes to talk about gang
- 56:08fence speed and gang fence speed is
- 56:10certainly true inside China.
- 56:12gang ben speed slows down marketkedly
- 56:16outside of China. And I think the
- 56:18challenge uh they have now is that they
- 56:22have such a big
- 56:25portfolio that
- 56:28uh I think they you know
- 56:32Golamina I would think based on the
- 56:36capacities they have and uh the need for
- 56:41rock that that
- 56:43Golamina gets gets the attention. But I
- 56:47would be surprised if they did
- 56:51additional significant Hard Rock uh
- 56:54before they get some of the Bryant
- 56:55assets online. And I mean, just look at
- 56:58the their uh last quarter announcement.
- 57:02I mean, it's it's tough times even for
- 57:05Gang Van.
- 57:09Fascinating stuff, Joe. appreciate you
- 57:12uh you making the time and letting us
- 57:14pick your brain on on every asset under
- 57:16the sun and uh yeah, letting us sort of
- 57:19ponder what the West can do about
- 57:21catching up with with the the sort of
- 57:24bullet train that China is.
- 57:27Well, when the bullet train leaves the
- 57:29station 10 years before the next bullet
- 57:32train, uh it is going to be hard to
- 57:35catch up. But uh I I do have a belief
- 57:40that the US will have a have or North
- 57:43America will have a supply chain.
- 57:46Um but it's it's not going to be the
- 57:49scale of China. It's not you know it's
- 57:51just it's it's going to be different.
- 57:53They picked they
- 57:55picked the energy transition to focus
- 57:59on and we continued to dither
- 58:05about battery packs
- 58:07and you know subsidies
- 58:11and we
- 58:13are reaping what we sowed.
- 58:18We um we'll keep paying attention that's
- 58:20for sure. you um when we reached out and
- 58:22asked for an interview, Joe, you said
- 58:23only if you can ask us a couple of
- 58:25questions at the end. So, you've got the
- 58:27floor.
- 58:31Gentlemen, you've been doing this now
- 58:32for two years. Two years, give or take.
- 58:36Yep.
- 58:39Each of
- 58:40you, what have you learned about
- 58:43yourself in the process
- 58:45of talking to people every day?
- 58:50and you'll answer that and then I'll ask
- 58:52you a
- 58:57followup. It is rapid fire, boys.
- 59:01Good thing we can edit.
- 59:06Um I in the process of talking to people
- 59:08every day, what have I learned about
- 59:09myself? I reckon I've learned that
- 59:13uh I can change my mind more than I
- 59:17thought. I actually thought I was quite
- 59:18like stubborn and would be very um stuck
- 59:21in an opinion. But I think when you do
- 59:23speak to lots of different different
- 59:25people, different expertise, I yeah, I
- 59:27do have a capability to to change my
- 59:30opinion especially when you know I think
- 59:31the the new person I meet the new
- 59:33perspective um is is is like you know
- 59:36they come from a place of logic.
- 59:40Yeah, it's a good good question, Joe.
- 59:43the the way I'd sort of answer it is I
- 59:45think about the I think it's the Dunning
- 59:47Krueger effect and I think about like
- 59:48where where you are on on the the range
- 59:51of sort of knowing something about a
- 59:54particular kind of subject and kind of
- 59:57bizarrely I feel like we we learn more
- 59:59every every day about mining and you
- 1:00:02know the the gist of it is that you you
- 1:00:04think you know a whole lot more when
- 1:00:05you're at the beginning of the journey
- 1:00:07and you know every day for the last two
- 1:00:09years we we learn more but I feel like I
- 1:00:10know less and less and less and there's
- 1:00:12so many smart people out there that have
- 1:00:14such sort of nuanced and well thoughtout
- 1:00:16views on on topics that we sort of dive
- 1:00:20into for a for a couple of days and yeah
- 1:00:23I think sort of got to got to stay true
- 1:00:25to it and think you're you're learning
- 1:00:26more but it's it's amazing um how much
- 1:00:30is out there and and the knowledge that
- 1:00:31people sort of build up like yourself
- 1:00:33doing something for 20 30 years and yeah
- 1:00:37to to finish that piece off we're we're
- 1:00:39pretty grateful that that people do
- 1:00:40share their their knowledge with
- 1:00:43What have you learned about asking
- 1:00:45questions?
- 1:00:49Say less.
- 1:00:52Bingo.
- 1:00:56I'm working on that one still. But yeah,
- 1:00:58the uh I think it's like anything.
- 1:01:00Interviewing people is is a skill and
- 1:01:02you don't get good at it overnight,
- 1:01:04right? So, you need to just work on it
- 1:01:06and work on it and work on it and and
- 1:01:08you hopefully in 10 20 years maybe
- 1:01:11you'll be okay at it.
- 1:01:14Yeah. No, I actually
- 1:01:16think I don't listen to you guys every
- 1:01:18day, but I I do
- 1:01:20think you ask generally speaking, you
- 1:01:24ask good questions and that that is a
- 1:01:27skill and uh I think I mean it I think
- 1:01:31you come to it and but I I do think you
- 1:01:35hit the nail on the head though. It's
- 1:01:37talking less
- 1:01:38and listening more is is probably the
- 1:01:42answer. And that that was really what I
- 1:01:44had to learn when I started doing this.
- 1:01:46It's hard when you like to talk, isn't
- 1:01:50it? It isn't
- 1:01:56anymore. But yeah, it probably it it
- 1:02:01probably that's the the big transition.
- 1:02:04And as a
- 1:02:07business, what have you found is the
- 1:02:09biggest challenge.
- 1:02:20I am loving the silence.
- 1:02:25Uh the the biggest the biggest challenge
- 1:02:30is sort of staying staying true to the
- 1:02:33the kind of mission you you set out for
- 1:02:37when uh when money gets involved, right?
- 1:02:40You you start out and we and we start
- 1:02:42out wanting to be independent and not
- 1:02:44take money from from mining companies.
- 1:02:47And
- 1:02:49like it's not that mining companies have
- 1:02:52come and offered us big cash, you know,
- 1:02:54paychecks or anything like that, but you
- 1:02:57know, it's all the stuff on the edges,
- 1:02:59you know, and once you start kind of
- 1:03:02doing this and doing that, you get you
- 1:03:03get distracted or maybe you get you get
- 1:03:05kind of sloppy on the fringes. And I
- 1:03:06think just staying true is the uh the
- 1:03:10the most important thing. Yeah. And I'
- 1:03:13I'd kind of build off that. It's just
- 1:03:16it's focus, I'd say. It's like um yeah,
- 1:03:19one one thing someone else in media once
- 1:03:20said to us was it's it's much more
- 1:03:22important what you say no to than what
- 1:03:23you say yes to. And you know,
- 1:03:26remembering to say no very very often is
- 1:03:30um yeah is a big challenge.
- 1:03:33Well, when I met you guys
- 1:03:36um and I asked you what your day jobs
- 1:03:39were,
- 1:03:41what did he say? And he said he said,
- 1:03:43"No, this is what we do."
- 1:03:48And I thought, "Wow." I I felt like a
- 1:03:50shit because I was like, "I'm not I
- 1:03:52didn't I didn't mean it as an insult. I
- 1:03:54just Yeah, you hadn't been doing it very
- 1:03:56long. I figured you guys must like have
- 1:03:58jobs." Yeah. I I don't even know if it
- 1:04:00was paying the bills completely back
- 1:04:02then, Joe, but it was um we're all just
- 1:04:05a bit pro bono. We're all a bit
- 1:04:06delinquent and thought we'll give it a
- 1:04:08crack and if it doesn't work, it doesn't
- 1:04:09work. But um we're still here 2 years
- 1:04:11later, which is a is a relief. Well,
- 1:04:14give my regards to Maddie and um the
- 1:04:17next time I'm in town, I'm coming
- 1:04:19calling for one of those Money of Mind
- 1:04:21shirts, please. Yeah, we'll we'd love to
- 1:04:25have you in the studio. And um you know
- 1:04:27what I And this is I'm going to invite
- 1:04:29Dwayne Sparks to be on this podcast with
- 1:04:32me when I'm in Perth. Call out Dwayne.
- 1:04:36Make it happen. If anyone Yeah. Yeah, if
- 1:04:38anyone can make him come, it's it's you,
- 1:04:39Joe. I um I Yeah, I I'd w we'd we'd all
- 1:04:44welcome that opportunity, so let's hope
- 1:04:45it happens.
- 1:04:47Well, I I I think it will. I have never
- 1:04:50met him either, but he seems like a
- 1:04:53swell guy.
- 1:04:55I think we're going to have to go to
- 1:04:56Katanning to to meet him. Um because he
- 1:04:59keeps running away.
- 1:05:01Well, I'll go wherever. Yeah. I mean,
- 1:05:03this this is my mission. This is like a
- 1:05:06a pilgrimage halfway across the earth to
- 1:05:10me. Dwayne seeking Dwayne Sparks. That
- 1:05:13can be the name of the episode.
- 1:05:19All right, guys. Well, I think you're
- 1:05:21done with me. So, thank you so much,
- 1:05:23Joe. We're never done with you. U the
- 1:05:25industry will never be done with you
- 1:05:26because you have been with it forever.
- 1:05:28So, thank you so much for for for
- 1:05:30sharing your insight, your time, your
- 1:05:31knowledge of the the past, present, and
- 1:05:33future.
- 1:05:34Um, we really appreciate it. You will
- 1:05:36you will have you'll have a mention in
- 1:05:39my book.
- 1:05:42Those pesky kids from Perth.
- 1:05:47Nice alliteration. All
- 1:05:49right. Cheers, Joe. See you. Thank you
- 1:05:52very much, Mr. Lithium, for connecting
- 1:05:55with us back in Australia. Good work,
- 1:05:57boys. Loved it. Thanks to Joe. It was a
- 1:06:00uh yeah, a pleasure to catch up with him
- 1:06:01and and just take stock of of everything
- 1:06:03in in a market that has been pretty
- 1:06:04tumultuous over over the last couple
- 1:06:06years. I see you went podcast for
- 1:06:08podcast on to you guys at the end. He
- 1:06:10did. Yeah, he did. The condition of
- 1:06:12doing the interview, Maddie.
- 1:06:14We'll extend that big thank you Trev to
- 1:06:16our awesome partners. Get your tickets
- 1:06:18for the GRX conference. May I'm going I
- 1:06:21got to book me tickets after this
- 1:06:22actually. May 20 to May 22nd in Brizzy.
- 1:06:25Yeah, mate. Can't wait. The center of
- 1:06:26tech and innovation. discount codes on
- 1:06:29the show notes. I chucked a link in post
- 1:06:30up. Use the code otherwise they'll think
- 1:06:33we're shit. Uh bloody mentioned in the
- 1:06:35show MMS and Grounded. We got bloody
- 1:06:38sandy ground sports C insurance K drill
- 1:06:41WA Waterboards Quattro
- 1:06:44KCA Black Diamond Drilling Services and
- 1:06:47Cross Boundary Energy.
- 1:06:50Uru information contained in this
- 1:06:52episode of money of mine is of general
- 1:06:54nature only and does not take into
- 1:06:55account the objectives, financial
- 1:06:57situation or needs of any particular
- 1:06:59person. Before making any investment
- 1:07:01decision, you should consult with your
- 1:07:03financial adviser and consider how
- 1:07:05appropriate the advice is to your
- 1:07:07objectives, financial situation and
- 1:07:09needs.
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