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An Unfiltered Conversation with Mr Lithium — Transcript

by Money of Mine · 9,990 words · 1,490 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:01Well, the the capability really came
  2. 0:03from the west. Truth be told, we quit
  3. 0:05doing it and they have a huge cost
  4. 0:10advantage. You know, when they were
  5. 0:12talking about technologies that they
  6. 0:14were going to might limit the export of
  7. 0:16and one of the things they talked about
  8. 0:17was hard rock conversion and it was like
  9. 0:20really
  10. 0:22um we actually started
  11. 0:24that. Right, buddy. Mers, lithium
  12. 0:27spectacular coming your way. Boys, you
  13. 0:30know the best place to charge a lithium
  14. 0:32battery. Tell me, Matthew, in a charging
  15. 0:35station, probably in a grounded camp.
  16. 0:37They can put them in and cuz you know
  17. 0:39what? Cuz they don't build on the plan.
  18. 0:41They design the plan. Unbelievable. And
  19. 0:43then they build they design, concept,
  20. 0:46construct, mate. Absolute experts, mate.
  21. 0:48You can have a look at this joint. This
  22. 0:51is Subako on a mine site. And you see
  23. 0:54grounded zone Katie door walking around
  24. 0:56here. I swear that is the animated
  25. 0:58version of Katie Door. It's been modeled
  26. 1:00off. But you can mate unbelievable
  27. 1:04quality. That is what you will see in
  28. 1:07real life once the grounded team unleash
  29. 1:10their expertise on you. Camp is the
  30. 1:12wrong word. We need we need we need a
  31. 1:14new word for what these are because this
  32. 1:15is revolutionized accommodation on a
  33. 1:17mindsite. Resort. Resort. Resort.
  34. 1:21Village. Um, yeah. It's uh it's got it's
  35. 1:24got to make working there happy. City
  36. 1:25dwellings in the bush. Love it.
  37. 1:27Designed, concept, and constructed by
  38. 1:30the Grounded Group. Go Grounded, mate.
  39. 1:32Did they build their own building? They
  40. 1:34probably did down West Perth. I think
  41. 1:35they did. Yeah, definitely owned it.
  42. 1:39Love to know that. Anyway, back to
  43. 1:40Lithium. Mr. Joe Lowry, Mr. Lithium. Uh,
  44. 1:45come back. Bloody sorry I couldn't join
  45. 1:47us on this one. I hope you gave him more
  46. 1:48regards. Great fella. And uh what's
  47. 1:52what's the vibe? What is the vibe? The
  48. 1:55vibe is that we want to be
  49. 1:56counteryclical, Matthew. And as we sort
  50. 1:59of discuss in the show, lithium is very
  51. 2:01beaten up. No surprise to anyone. And
  52. 2:03why not have a chat about it with none
  53. 2:05other than Mr. Lithium. He covered
  54. 2:07everything under the sun in lithium
  55. 2:10world from the M&A that we've seen in
  56. 2:12recent times, the supply demand dynamic
  57. 2:15and the conversation really came off the
  58. 2:16back of his awesome write up on how the
  59. 2:19Chinese have dominated the lithium space
  60. 2:21in the battery metal battery metals and
  61. 2:23battery making arena for the last 5 10
  62. 2:27years. So I think that's all you kind of
  63. 2:29need to know for this one. So
  64. 2:30counteryclical you're saying find
  65. 2:32something that's gone down shitloads and
  66. 2:34hope it goes back up.
  67. 2:36Yeah, exactly in a nutshell. Right now,
  68. 2:39let's get into M Mr. Lithium. Mr.
  69. 2:42Lithium, we are very excited to to have
  70. 2:45you back on the show. It's been well
  71. 2:46over a year now and with where where
  72. 2:49lithium markets have been and the kind
  73. 2:51of general sentiment around the space.
  74. 2:53We thought it'd be a great time to get
  75. 2:55you back on the show. And then you
  76. 2:57actually published a a little piece on
  77. 3:00LinkedIn, the lithium art of war. And
  78. 3:03yeah, I never thought I'd lead in the
  79. 3:05podcast with a bit of Sunsu, but I think
  80. 3:07it's quite fitting
  81. 3:10given given your paper. So there was
  82. 3:12some fascinating sort of points and it
  83. 3:14sort of puts into perspective the uh the
  84. 3:17rise and rise of of China and the and
  85. 3:19the kind of falling off of the west. But
  86. 3:22yeah, keen keen to start the podcast to
  87. 3:24understand what was the the inspiration
  88. 3:26to to put into words what has happened
  89. 3:28over the past 15 20 years in the lithium
  90. 3:32arena.
  91. 3:34Well, as a proud
  92. 3:37American,
  93. 3:39I bewail our falling off a cliff,
  94. 3:43falling off the lithium cliff. Uh, over
  95. 3:46the years, over the, you know, when I
  96. 3:49started, everything that went to the
  97. 3:51battery industry was from the US, mined
  98. 3:54in the US, processed in the US, and and
  99. 3:56that was it was shortlived. It was only
  100. 3:59three or four years because we did not
  101. 4:01have the capacity at the time. and had
  102. 4:04to make a transition from hard rock to
  103. 4:07brine. But
  104. 4:08I really tire of the whining on the US.
  105. 4:14Well, I won't even limit it to the US.
  106. 4:16Europe too and in uh frame it more
  107. 4:20broadly, North America uh in Europe
  108. 4:23about China's unfair competition and how
  109. 4:28they've
  110. 4:29dominated. They were terrible at all
  111. 4:32this.
  112. 4:33for the better part of 15
  113. 4:36years, but they stuck with their
  114. 4:39program. You know, I can go back
  115. 4:42as recently
  116. 4:44as 2009, 2010. Nobody would buy Chinese
  117. 4:48material unless it was low-end stuff.
  118. 4:51The European Greece guys uh would buy
  119. 4:53their
  120. 4:54hydroxide. Uh but the Koreans and the
  121. 4:57Japanese who at that time still were
  122. 4:58dominant in the battery supply chain,
  123. 5:01they wouldn't touch um Chinese material.
  124. 5:04Gangfen didn't even start making
  125. 5:07carbonate and hydroxide until the last
  126. 5:1015 years. So they existed for over a
  127. 5:13decade before they even uh were in a
  128. 5:16financial position uh
  129. 5:17[Music]
  130. 5:19to put the capital and to convert.
  131. 5:23So it it's been an interesting rise and
  132. 5:26you know highlighted Gangfan. I could
  133. 5:27have just as easily talked about Tiani
  134. 5:29although I don't think their story is
  135. 5:31quite as interesting as Gang Fans. But
  136. 5:33then BYD also I I met BYD before I met
  137. 5:37Gangfen. Uh I I met BYD 25 years ago and
  138. 5:42was supplying them carbonate and uh
  139. 5:45cathode materials which we made it a
  140. 5:47joint venture uh in Japan and I saw that
  141. 5:51rise because their beginnings were very
  142. 5:54very humble as well and CL before their
  143. 5:58doing EVs right oh yeah this this was
  144. 6:02all they went up into the hinterland and
  145. 6:05got a bunch of teenage girls to make uh
  146. 6:08crummy batteries by hand. And literally,
  147. 6:11I mean, they put their capital in the
  148. 6:13testing equipment because back then, and
  149. 6:15and this is really fascinating, the
  150. 6:18first time I went to their
  151. 6:22facility, they were bragging about
  152. 6:25how making things by hand was actually a
  153. 6:28strength because they could pivot faster
  154. 6:30than Sony could. But they also were
  155. 6:34honest enough to say that most of their
  156. 6:36batteries couldn't be sold to the
  157. 6:38international cell phone market, which
  158. 6:40back then was two names you guys
  159. 6:42probably don't you might be familiar
  160. 6:44with. Nokia and Motorola. They were the
  161. 6:47big cell phone guys back then. I mean,
  162. 6:48it kind This was after the Gordon Gecko
  163. 6:51shoecase. Um, we're not that young, Joe.
  164. 6:54We We remember those.
  165. 6:57We I reckon we both owned one of them.
  166. 7:01Definitely. The United States did not
  167. 7:03have I mean myself I at the when I lived
  168. 7:06in Asia I had three cell phones. I had a
  169. 7:08China cell because roaming wasn't really
  170. 7:10a thing early on. So I had a China cell
  171. 7:12phone for trips to China. I was living
  172. 7:14in Japan. I had a Japanese cell phone
  173. 7:16and I had a US cell phone. And my US
  174. 7:19cell phone had a nickel metal hydride
  175. 7:22battery back then. So it was pre-
  176. 7:25lithium.
  177. 7:27Yeah. And looking at the market caps of
  178. 7:29these companies, I think just to to
  179. 7:31state the numbers so people really
  180. 7:33appreciate it, like BYD is in Aussie
  181. 7:36dollar terms $215 billion. So 2/3 of
  182. 7:40that to get the US market cap and cattle
  183. 7:42is about the same. Like these companies
  184. 7:45are they're bigger than BHB now. It's
  185. 7:47it's remarkable the um the the rise and
  186. 7:51rise. I want I want to hone in on on
  187. 7:53cattle for a second, Joe, because the
  188. 7:57the really interesting part that's stuck
  189. 7:59out to me from your writing was on their
  190. 8:02appreciation of vertical integration and
  191. 8:04what they learned in the the latest wild
  192. 8:07ride that we saw in that 21 22 boom and
  193. 8:11they you know went on to to purchase
  194. 8:13these lipid operations. How do you kind
  195. 8:16of put that in in perspective and you
  196. 8:19know think about how they might utilize
  197. 8:22those operations and the learnings
  198. 8:23they've got from that going forward over
  199. 8:25the next sort of 10 20 years?
  200. 8:28I I think it's even broader than just
  201. 8:31what CL did. But to go with the
  202. 8:37question in the 2022
  203. 8:40runup they had to try to keep their
  204. 8:43share. had a a program where they were
  205. 8:46guaranteeing that the form the price
  206. 8:48lithium price in the formula would be
  207. 8:51basically the equivalent of 20,000
  208. 8:53pricing which they lost a lot of money
  209. 8:56on as the price continued to rise and
  210. 8:59these guys are very smart people and
  211. 9:02they move
  212. 9:03fast. They didn't like what was
  213. 9:05happening.
  214. 9:08They realized that if price was just
  215. 9:10going to keep going up
  216. 9:11that they could
  217. 9:14exploit what were very well-known
  218. 9:17resources. They just weren't economic in
  219. 9:20any other lithium
  220. 9:23cycle. And it goes way beyond that
  221. 9:26though that the lepitoolite came on and
  222. 9:30then all the African
  223. 9:33move
  224. 9:35and they figured out I think really
  225. 9:38quickly how they're going to manage the
  226. 9:40next cycle because there's layers of you
  227. 9:44know the cost curve. uh your last
  228. 9:47lithium guest talked about the uh you
  229. 9:50know the concept of the steepening cost
  230. 9:51curve and that is certainly true and now
  231. 9:55I think that is going to be the the
  232. 9:58buffer on significant price runs in the
  233. 10:01future because all the Chinese
  234. 10:04converters know where this stuff is
  235. 10:07whether it's DSO or 2.5 or whatever the
  236. 10:11grades are Africa's has such a diversity
  237. 10:14of they have decent lithium and they
  238. 10:16have a lot of garbage, but when the
  239. 10:18price runs up to 35,000, then 40,000 and
  240. 10:21then all the way up to 80, you can use
  241. 10:24any of that stuff. And I think that the
  242. 10:30last
  243. 10:32cycle taught all of
  244. 10:35China, all their lithium supply chain,
  245. 10:39uh, how they'll react next time. I mean,
  246. 10:42it seemed quick in 2022, 2023. It'll be
  247. 10:45quicker next time. But I also believe
  248. 10:48there will be a shortage and there will
  249. 10:50be a price spike. Because on the other
  250. 10:52hand of what CL's done and and I think
  251. 10:56there's fair consensus that there's a
  252. 10:59lot of misinformation out there. If you
  253. 11:01go back to 2022, they were CO was
  254. 11:04pumping the sodium ion battery and how
  255. 11:06great it was going to be and the share
  256. 11:07it was going to get and they they knew
  257. 11:10the limitations of that. But it it was
  258. 11:13rhetoric that scared the
  259. 11:16West and that's that's the game. They've
  260. 11:20they've done a great job of
  261. 11:23disincentivizing capital from chasing
  262. 11:28um what I would call mediocre projects.
  263. 11:31No mediocre projects for MMS. All class
  264. 11:35boys. Ask me anything about MMS and
  265. 11:39mining. Does open pit mining have a
  266. 11:42relationship with underground mining?
  267. 11:44Matthew interesting question. Well,
  268. 11:47let's consider that Blackat have just
  269. 11:51taken pretty much same myes going
  270. 11:53underground. Now, if we can link that
  271. 11:55back to MMS, their superior performance
  272. 11:59at my getting there quicker obviously
  273. 12:01leaving it in schmeo condition. All the
  274. 12:04bloody walls are just ready to punch
  275. 12:06portals in. I would say yes. MMS have
  276. 12:10pretty much Blackat have said, "Holy
  277. 12:12shit, we can go underground now. We
  278. 12:14weren't expecting to be here. Thank you,
  279. 12:16MMS. That is pretty much what's
  280. 12:18happening. So, answer to your question,
  281. 12:20JD. Yes, if you buy the open pit quick
  282. 12:24at a superior quality, yes, it makes
  283. 12:27your underground better and sooner. If I
  284. 12:29understand you right, Matthew, that
  285. 12:31means earlier cash flow for you, the
  286. 12:34mining company. Well, that you probably
  287. 12:36just start just getting double the cash
  288. 12:38flow cuz the pit's still going. You
  289. 12:39didn't sterilize your body. You looked
  290. 12:40after it. Twice as much cash flow, five
  291. 12:43times as quicker, and your share price
  292. 12:45goes up like black cat when MMS is your
  293. 12:48trusted mining partner. Seems like a
  294. 12:49no-brainer to me, mate. Isn't it? What?
  295. 12:52Let's get back in the boot. Joe,
  296. 12:56just to tease that out even more, Joe,
  297. 12:57like what's their what's the the
  298. 12:59economic incentive for them to do do so?
  299. 13:02Well, take BYD and CL
  300. 13:05together. They're almost half of global
  301. 13:07lithium demand.
  302. 13:09two companies. We never had that
  303. 13:12situation before. If you look
  304. 13:15at 1.2 2 terowatt hours total last year
  305. 13:20roughly and BYD and CL being half of
  306. 13:24that and I'm a little more conservative
  307. 13:27on my lithium intensity than your guest
  308. 13:30from Singapore but any way you calculate
  309. 13:33it they
  310. 13:36are far and away the dominant purchaser
  311. 13:39of lithium values in whatever form
  312. 13:41whether it's cells cathode
  313. 13:44whatever and they have every incentive
  314. 13:46in the world to run a mine or a couple
  315. 13:50of mines at a loss. If you're buying
  316. 13:54three or 400,000 tons of
  317. 13:57LCE and you take a beating on 40, 50,
  318. 14:0160,000 tons, but you keep your
  319. 14:04other
  320. 14:07purchases 89 $10 below what they would
  321. 14:11run up to if you weren't doing that.
  322. 14:14It's it's not rocket science.
  323. 14:19If we if we go back once more, Joe, to
  324. 14:23to really set set the foundation for for
  325. 14:25this rise of these these Chinese
  326. 14:27companies, one of the other points you
  327. 14:29you make and and others have sort of
  328. 14:30made and you see it across all all
  329. 14:33industries, but you know, you know, very
  330. 14:35obviously in in the EV and the battery
  331. 14:37sort of space is the the way in which
  332. 14:40government and industry kind of mesh and
  333. 14:43and work together and they kind of
  334. 14:45coordinate to to achieve these
  335. 14:48strategic
  336. 14:49goals. When you look at like BYD and and
  337. 14:52cattle now, do do you see them as
  338. 14:54um being able to kind of run their own
  339. 14:56race and the the government has kind of
  340. 14:58just tap them in line when when that
  341. 15:00needs to kind of happen, but they're
  342. 15:02they're free to sort of do so or how do
  343. 15:04you view the the government and
  344. 15:07enterprise sort of relationship today?
  345. 15:10I think you just phrased it very well.
  346. 15:14they let them run until they have
  347. 15:18something to say. And I I think you you
  348. 15:20saw that I I don't know if it was the
  349. 15:23March meeting two years ago or when Xi
  350. 15:28Jinping told Robin Zong that uh he ought
  351. 15:30to be careful about going to the US and
  352. 15:32you needed to be dealing with friendly
  353. 15:36entities.
  354. 15:37um that I I'd have to go back and and
  355. 15:40Google that article, but it was it was
  356. 15:42pretty clear. And uh I think everybody
  357. 15:46knows the Jack Ma story. That's not a
  358. 15:48that's not a lithium story, but you
  359. 15:50know, they turned jack into a verb. You
  360. 15:53know, you get jack. So, I I think
  361. 15:56there's been a bit bit of a change
  362. 15:58lately though, right? the uh the the
  363. 16:00attitude towards successful business
  364. 16:02people is uh I don't know it's kind of
  365. 16:05altered a a little bit and Jack Mahar
  366. 16:07has you know been the been the face of
  367. 16:09that you you've seen him in public again
  368. 16:11which you didn't see for a number of
  369. 16:13years I think that's
  370. 16:15optics I think it's all optics right uh
  371. 16:20yeah I I not to be completely cynical
  372. 16:24but having lived there having watched it
  373. 16:27uh knowing some of these people.
  374. 16:30Um, you don't want to be the richest guy
  375. 16:33in China. You want to be three or four.
  376. 16:36When I lived there, there was two or
  377. 16:38three years where the person named the
  378. 16:40richest person in China was in jail the
  379. 16:43next year. I I used to love that saying
  380. 16:45that the fastest way to to die in in
  381. 16:47China is to become a billionaire.
  382. 16:52Yeah. But I mean, probably offended an
  383. 16:54entire nation there, so maybe I retract
  384. 16:56that one.
  385. 17:00I admire what China's done. I mean, that
  386. 17:03is my bottom line from the what I put up
  387. 17:06on on LinkedIn is that I think that it's
  388. 17:10very arrogant of North America or Europe
  389. 17:14to think they can do in a short period
  390. 17:16of time. what it literally took China
  391. 17:20decades to do with all the support put
  392. 17:23in place
  393. 17:26with I hired a lot of people when I
  394. 17:29lived in China and I always said I would
  395. 17:32much
  396. 17:34rather have to pick from a pool of
  397. 17:36Chinese talent than a pool of American
  398. 17:38talent. It's a tremendously industrious
  399. 17:41uh nation, right? Everybody wanted to
  400. 17:43get ahead. Um there there are nuances to
  401. 17:46how you manage Chinese uh young people.
  402. 17:51uh they're they do
  403. 17:53um probably need a little more stroking
  404. 17:57in terms
  405. 17:59of having a lot of the I managed
  406. 18:02different age groups and the young
  407. 18:03people were a little more aggressive but
  408. 18:05uh the people that had mom and dad went
  409. 18:09through the cultural revolution they had
  410. 18:10a respect for authority that uh you
  411. 18:13didn't really see so much in in the US
  412. 18:15at the time but there the 50 years of
  413. 18:19communism I used to say when I was
  414. 18:22living there didn't beat the
  415. 18:23entrepreneurial spirit out of the
  416. 18:25Chinese people.
  417. 18:27That's that that point is is often a bit
  418. 18:30lost in the commentary around China is
  419. 18:31just the the relative competitiveness
  420. 18:33that does exist amongst um you know the
  421. 18:36centralized government.
  422. 18:39It was the old saw, especially in in the
  423. 18:43early days of cathode, was once a
  424. 18:46company started making decent
  425. 18:48cathode, then one of their lead guys
  426. 18:51would quit, go down the street and open
  427. 18:53up another cathode uh supplier. It was
  428. 18:57just people wanted to be their own
  429. 19:00boss. And
  430. 19:02I admired
  431. 19:06the really
  432. 19:09the hard work, the the work ethic was
  433. 19:13impressive and so I may not like
  434. 19:18um Mr. Shei much, but I admire the
  435. 19:23Chinese people and will continue to do
  436. 19:25so. The supreme art of war is to subdue
  437. 19:27the enemy without fighting. How does
  438. 19:30this relate to lithium, Joe?
  439. 19:33Well, it it really does. And not to hype
  440. 19:37my podcast, but if you go back and
  441. 19:38listen to the episode not lost in
  442. 19:40translation with Leel Bing and Wang
  443. 19:43Xiaoen, I mean they talked about the
  444. 19:44early days they had
  445. 19:48to deal with everybody. They were the
  446. 19:52supplicants.
  447. 19:54They
  448. 19:55never there was never a discouraging
  449. 19:58word said. Um, but they knew where they
  450. 20:02wanted to go. And that was one of the
  451. 20:04things that I always told people that
  452. 20:06were dealing with them cuz I I made a
  453. 20:09presentation at Panorama Monero event
  454. 20:12last
  455. 20:13October and I showed gang fence slides
  456. 20:17that they had presented to me in
  457. 20:192005 about wanting to
  458. 20:22become a
  459. 20:26strong domestic
  460. 20:28supplier. And then they wanted to become
  461. 20:31a regional player. And this is not
  462. 20:34incarbonating hydroxide. This was in the
  463. 20:36downstream because they they had enough
  464. 20:38capital to to have a metal plant and
  465. 20:40they had enough capital to try to
  466. 20:43dothium. Um but I think if you look at
  467. 20:47the three companies I highlight in that
  468. 20:49article,
  469. 20:51they all started off
  470. 20:55with technology from other people.
  471. 20:59I mean
  472. 21:00CL's technology was came from
  473. 21:04Japan and or ATL did and then CL was an
  474. 21:08offshoot of that and there was always
  475. 21:12the the Chinese concept of they would
  476. 21:15always say you know big brother I need
  477. 21:19help and uh it
  478. 21:22wasn't it wasn't until they got to
  479. 21:25the where they are today that they
  480. 21:29now publicly still show the humility,
  481. 21:33but those guys are very confident in who
  482. 21:36they are and where they're going and
  483. 21:37they're certainly not afraid of anybody
  484. 21:38outside of China.
  485. 21:41On on the conversion front, like just
  486. 21:43how how many like how many years ahead
  487. 21:46like realistically would they be if if
  488. 21:47the you know if the if the the West
  489. 21:49tried to replicate some of some of that
  490. 21:51capability?
  491. 21:54Well, the the capability really came
  492. 21:56from the
  493. 21:57west. Truth be told, they learned how to
  494. 22:01convert spamine from us. We didn't
  495. 22:03learn. Now, we quit doing it. and they
  496. 22:08have a huge cost
  497. 22:11advantage. But, you know, that's that's
  498. 22:14something that I always push back on is
  499. 22:17that, you know, when they were talking
  500. 22:19about technologies that they were going
  501. 22:22to might limit the export of and one of
  502. 22:24the things they talked about was hard
  503. 22:26rock conversion and it was like really
  504. 22:29um we actually started that. So
  505. 22:33um but I take the question
  506. 22:36seriously. I look at
  507. 22:39Tesla Corpus Christi. They announced
  508. 22:42that the the calsider was turning but
  509. 22:45they haven't uh I haven't I haven't seen
  510. 22:47a lot of announcements about the great
  511. 22:49quality product that they're producing
  512. 22:50because uh it's not happening. uh as far
  513. 22:53as I know. Uh I don't want to get into
  514. 22:55trouble if they have been
  515. 22:59sneaking product to cathode makers, but
  516. 23:02I think I would know. Uh I I do think
  517. 23:06we're more hamstrung on the permitting
  518. 23:10side, the financing
  519. 23:12side.
  520. 23:14Um and and I think it's
  521. 23:17probably I would say the gap in simply
  522. 23:21lithium
  523. 23:23uh we can't catch up and we shouldn't
  524. 23:27even try to catch
  525. 23:28up but we do need our own supply chain
  526. 23:32too and that's just
  527. 23:35because when I was there and
  528. 23:37watching early days when I was first
  529. 23:40making trips once a month between 2000
  530. 23:43and 2005 before I moved to China from
  531. 23:46Japan there were not that many
  532. 23:49converters and
  533. 23:51how I I don't I don't have a any idea
  534. 23:56how many dozen conversion facilities
  535. 23:58there are now, but uh you
  536. 24:02um you had easy money when they were
  537. 24:05trying to develop the West. Uh the the
  538. 24:09regional banks were propping up people
  539. 24:12that weren't making a dime for years.
  540. 24:15And we don't we don't have that kind of
  541. 24:18uh situation in America. So, I'd say
  542. 24:21that's as much the problem as just the
  543. 24:23pure
  544. 24:24technology because I can get on the
  545. 24:26phone and call a bunch of
  546. 24:28people that live
  547. 24:31within a few hours of where I'm sitting
  548. 24:35that could get a converter build if they
  549. 24:36had the money and and they could put it
  550. 24:38into operation relatively quickly if
  551. 24:41they could get it permitted.
  552. 24:43if uh all the things that you have to do
  553. 24:47besides just the engineering.
  554. 24:51So to your point on on us needing to
  555. 24:54have our own supply chain in in the west
  556. 24:56and and needing to compete, what what do
  557. 24:58you make of the the IRA and where that
  558. 25:01kind of stands now and what that kind of
  559. 25:04looks looks like and you know any other
  560. 25:07sort of similar government type package
  561. 25:10to to kind of chip away at China's
  562. 25:13dominance.
  563. 25:16Well, I am heartened that we are
  564. 25:20building Thecker
  565. 25:21Pass and all
  566. 25:24the issues that uh were in the way have
  567. 25:28been uh surmounted and that that that's
  568. 25:33being built and you know it's that was a
  569. 25:36huge loan. I mean 2.3 billions nothing
  570. 25:39to sneeze at and then it required some
  571. 25:42other uh additional financing and that's
  572. 25:44all in place. Uh I think it's being well
  573. 25:48supported by the local governments the
  574. 25:51the national governments but that's one
  575. 25:5540,000 ton plant that can expand to 80.
  576. 25:58It's it's a
  577. 26:01beginning. The real open question in
  578. 26:05North
  579. 26:07America is well there's there's more
  580. 26:10than one but how fast do the Exxons and
  581. 26:15Ecuadors
  582. 26:18move? Riotinto put real money into their
  583. 26:22lithium effort. I'm not saying that the
  584. 26:25oil companies have aren't willing to put
  585. 26:27real money in, but so far it's
  586. 26:30been kind of a slow roll as they they
  587. 26:34learn and they're not uh it isn't a
  588. 26:38Manhattan project speed scenario is
  589. 26:42probably the the kindest way to put it.
  590. 26:46I don't think a company like Rio is is
  591. 26:49capable of a a Manhattan type style or
  592. 26:52speed of operation in in all fairness to
  593. 26:54them. It's just not their their sort of
  594. 26:56MMO.
  595. 26:58Oh, and and I I was thrilled that Real
  596. 27:01put the capital in, but I've said on my
  597. 27:05podcast, I've said it in writing, I've
  598. 27:06said it on
  599. 27:08X, I don't think they speed this up.
  600. 27:13I think
  601. 27:15that they have the balance sheet to do
  602. 27:18all the projects that they own, but they
  603. 27:21don't have the skills yet. And I, you
  604. 27:26know,
  605. 27:27heard a recent guest um talk
  606. 27:31about all the skills that Arcadium had.
  607. 27:34Well, let's let's I'll just take it I'll
  608. 27:38just personalize it to my experience. I
  609. 27:40left FMC Lithium in
  610. 27:432012. 10 years later, they were
  611. 27:46producing the same amount of
  612. 27:48LCEEs as they were when I left. That's
  613. 27:51after announcing expansions. That's
  614. 27:53after a lot of
  615. 27:54rhetoric. And they didn't execute.
  616. 28:00Some of it could be laid on
  617. 28:03to financial
  618. 28:07issues, but that to me was more of an
  619. 28:10excuse. And I think Rio's already made a
  620. 28:12huge mistake in keeping that management
  621. 28:15intact. Um, they didn't get it done as
  622. 28:18live. They didn't get it done as
  623. 28:21separately as all chem and they didn't
  624. 28:24get it done as Arcadium.
  625. 28:26So
  626. 28:28why do you want to keep the same
  627. 28:31management
  628. 28:32intact who didn't perform who just had a
  629. 28:35portfolio of really good
  630. 28:37assets? It and I and I actually said
  631. 28:40that to Rio's head of battery metals at
  632. 28:43Beimo. I had a meeting with him and
  633. 28:45said, "You guys have already made
  634. 28:46mistake number one." Didn't they make
  635. 28:48Paul Graves the head of CEO of lithium?
  636. 28:50He's the CEO of Yeah. Yeah. I I like
  637. 28:53Paul. Paul's a nice guy. Yeah. But let's
  638. 28:56go. Let's look at the you should judge
  639. 28:58people by the
  640. 29:00record and
  641. 29:03um and I yeah I made the statement when
  642. 29:06Arcadium was formed. I made the
  643. 29:07statement that it made sense to have
  644. 29:09Paul run it because he's a banker and
  645. 29:11he'll he'll he'll be able to sell
  646. 29:13it and he did that and they should have
  647. 29:17thanked him and moved on.
  648. 29:20What what did you make of the price tag
  649. 29:22at the like to to just speak to that the
  650. 29:24financial aspect of of that that deal?
  651. 29:31I think Paul's a banker and I think Paul
  652. 29:34got a good price. I don't think it
  653. 29:37was as bad as some of Riot's other deals
  654. 29:41maybe. Uh but I don't want to go too far
  655. 29:43down. That's a high bar to to beat.
  656. 29:46Well, that's hence the comment.
  657. 29:50I I do I I've got to I mean before we
  658. 29:53even kind of venture into some of the
  659. 29:55grounds of of of the deal landscape and
  660. 29:57everything like that. I feel like the
  661. 29:59maybe even the most topical um thing to
  662. 30:02to talk about is like the last few days
  663. 30:04we've just been watching the the lithium
  664. 30:06equities in particular here just
  665. 30:08absolutely crater. Um I mean to today as
  666. 30:11we wake up and we're recording it might
  667. 30:12be a bit of a bounce but um it it it
  668. 30:15almost seems like there's a really huge
  669. 30:16response to to tariffs as they relate to
  670. 30:19the lithium mining equities that we have
  671. 30:21like Pilgor PLS now they call themselves
  672. 30:24not P minerals PLS they're like a dollar
  673. 30:2620 20 odd but 26 yesterday at some point
  674. 30:29it's just um yeah amazing and mins is I
  675. 30:33mean at 31 and 34 cents so I'm I'm still
  676. 30:36I'm still hanging in so so is this is
  677. 30:39this like is this is this tariffs? Is
  678. 30:41this is that what this is? Like what are
  679. 30:43the like what's No, I think I think the
  680. 30:45the sentiment in lithium is worse in
  681. 30:482025 than it was in the dark days of
  682. 30:52less than $4,000 a ton that SQM and
  683. 30:56Oracle Cobra sold into China at during
  684. 30:592020. Um in some cases that wasn't their
  685. 31:02average price, but it got that low and
  686. 31:04you're still in the 10,000 range now.
  687. 31:07But the sentiment is still so
  688. 31:10negative. You know, two years ago at
  689. 31:14Beimo, every uranium company was talking
  690. 31:17about they might have lithium and gold
  691. 31:18guys were the same. Now it's the
  692. 31:20opposite. Every lithium guy is like,
  693. 31:22"Hey, maybe we'll go maybe we'll go for
  694. 31:25uranium."
  695. 31:26Um, I I don't think I think it's just
  696. 31:31the
  697. 31:32overall the market's
  698. 31:35down and it's easy to be negative
  699. 31:41on lithium used to
  700. 31:43track
  701. 31:45Tesla, you know, several years ago. And
  702. 31:48right now, I mean, people that drive
  703. 31:51Tesla are getting spit out, their cars
  704. 31:52getting spit on at stop lightss because
  705. 31:54everybody's mad at Elon. So,
  706. 31:57um, right now,
  707. 32:01America's, you know, going through a
  708. 32:03umoment interesting time. Well, some of
  709. 32:05it must like there must be kind of a
  710. 32:07part of it that is related to
  711. 32:08expectations of like in recessionary
  712. 32:10conditions, like where's the
  713. 32:11discretionary spend on lithium coming
  714. 32:12from? Plus combine it with how much of
  715. 32:14the you know the best um demand would it
  716. 32:16come from the US and all of a sudden the
  717. 32:18tariffs might make those you know
  718. 32:19individual projects or growth forecasts
  719. 32:21kind of uneconomic for the time being
  720. 32:23and then some short-term you know um so
  721. 32:26some of it must be a factor of what is a
  722. 32:28what is a response to the the tariffs
  723. 32:30and kind of recessionary kind of um
  724. 32:32conjecture but do you think that in the
  725. 32:34long run that kind of just gets washed
  726. 32:36out? I I think look what happened today.
  727. 32:39The market roared in America. Tariffs
  728. 32:42paused
  729. 32:43after Yeah. I mean Well, that's just my
  730. 32:48my entire my entire point is that
  731. 32:53give it 90 days
  732. 32:55to 6 months to see what Trump does next.
  733. 33:01Uh yeah, I think I don't think lithium's
  734. 33:06suffering more than the o other
  735. 33:09stocks. I mean, I I sold some Apple at
  736. 33:13236 several weeks ago and bought it back
  737. 33:17in
  738. 33:19180. So, I'm using this time to
  739. 33:26adjust my portfolio, shall we say.
  740. 33:30If we if we look at the supply side of
  741. 33:33the supply demand dynamic, h how do you
  742. 33:37currently sort of think about say over
  743. 33:40the next kind of three years your your
  744. 33:42kind of view versus consensus on on
  745. 33:45projects that can get up and running?
  746. 33:47Are you are you a bit more kind of
  747. 33:49bullish or do you think the consensus is
  748. 33:52is a bit lofty? Where do you see that at
  749. 33:53the moment, Joe? Well, tell me what you
  750. 33:56think consensus is. That that would be
  751. 33:58for point one. I think that um let's
  752. 34:02look at South
  753. 34:04America. Aaron met with great
  754. 34:07fanfare shipped 40
  755. 34:11tons. How many weeks ago? They're
  756. 34:15struggling. People don't like to talk
  757. 34:17about that,
  758. 34:19but it's hard bringing these projects
  759. 34:22on.
  760. 34:24and uh
  761. 34:27Aramat
  762. 34:29wasn't really sure
  763. 34:31of how to run their DLE at scale, I
  764. 34:34think, and they're they're learning on a
  765. 34:36job.
  766. 34:39Um people talk love to talk about Zigen
  767. 34:42and three Q's. How much have they
  768. 34:45produced?
  769. 34:47Um, I I think it's it's there's going to
  770. 34:50continue to be a struggle in 25 26 from
  771. 34:55some of the projects out there. And then
  772. 34:56you got the smaller projects that can't
  773. 34:59get
  774. 35:00financed. Um, I mean, if you go back to
  775. 35:02the art of war bit, um, that's another
  776. 35:05one of the benefits of misinformation
  777. 35:08and misdirection.
  778. 35:10as asset prices are go lower, the
  779. 35:15Chinese can pick them up cheaper to the
  780. 35:17extent that they're allowed to do that
  781. 35:18if it doesn't get, you know, you you
  782. 35:20take the geopolitics
  783. 35:22uh which are are also a factor. But
  784. 35:26ultimately, CL is going to pay the price
  785. 35:28for for this because they're, you know,
  786. 35:31they can't as the market goes from
  787. 35:34850,000 when they started this whole
  788. 35:36thing with Litoolyte to 2 million, their
  789. 35:40ability to use a couple of Leitoolyte
  790. 35:44mines to control the narrative is is is
  791. 35:47going to be tougher. Although, as I said
  792. 35:49earlier, we they've also
  793. 35:53identified what projects are economic at
  794. 35:55what
  795. 35:56prices. And it's really instructive to
  796. 35:59see what capacity came off when price
  797. 36:01got to 40. What project came off when
  798. 36:04price got to 30. You're going to see the
  799. 36:07the reverse when if if price goes up.
  800. 36:09And I price never should have gotten to
  801. 36:1240,000 in my opinion, but um I price
  802. 36:17can't stay where it is. Look at the look
  803. 36:20at the financials of all the lithium
  804. 36:21companies and how many adjustments can
  805. 36:25you make to IBIDA to try to make the
  806. 36:27story look good.
  807. 36:31Depends how creative you are, John.
  808. 36:32Yeah, I know a few creative lithium
  809. 36:33companies.
  810. 36:38wouldn't be the uh the only sector that
  811. 36:40chucks in a few adjustments to to EB.
  812. 36:41But uh what did you make of the um the
  813. 36:44SQM comments? I think about a month ago.
  814. 36:47Now they they sort of forecast 25 to be
  815. 36:50flattish and that's not what some people
  816. 36:53wanted to hear and then they sort of
  817. 36:54spoke to a bit of a a pickup. How do you
  818. 36:57kind of wait what what those guys kind
  819. 37:00of say? What's your view on them?
  820. 37:04I don't think price is going to break
  821. 37:08out in 2025 either, but if you you look
  822. 37:11at the history of SQN, they've always
  823. 37:13been very conservative about how they
  824. 37:15talked about price and I think that that
  825. 37:20continues. Uh, so
  826. 37:22I I just I always take the price
  827. 37:28forecast
  828. 37:29rhetoric with a with a grain of salt,
  829. 37:31but I don't I don't disagree with them
  830. 37:33either in this this
  831. 37:37time. I think there's enough lithium
  832. 37:40values rolling around in China that
  833. 37:43price doesn't break out. I think it'll
  834. 37:46be higher at the end of the year than it
  835. 37:47was at the beginning of the year, but I
  836. 37:48don't think it I I think that's a small
  837. 37:50number. And I think you get your spike,
  838. 37:53and I've said this publicly several
  839. 37:55times so far this year. I think Q4
  840. 37:592026, you'll start to see a little bit
  841. 38:01of a
  842. 38:03run. Look at the gigawatt hours that are
  843. 38:06being
  844. 38:07made. Look at the Western rhetoric is
  845. 38:11all
  846. 38:13about EVs haven't grown as much as some
  847. 38:16people expected in the United States.
  848. 38:17The United States isn't that big of a
  849. 38:19deal right now. in in the EV world
  850. 38:23and China continues to go from strength
  851. 38:25to strength and their exports are are
  852. 38:28growing
  853. 38:28and and best
  854. 38:31is exceeding everybody's expectations.
  855. 38:34So it's it's it's all about the gigawatt
  856. 38:37hours or terowatt hours now.
  857. 38:42So, so in that kind of subdued
  858. 38:44environment, obviously you kind of
  859. 38:46mentioned there that the potential for
  860. 38:48Chinese given geopolitics to to scoop
  861. 38:51up, but we have seen a couple other
  862. 38:52deals which I'm keen to to get your take
  863. 38:55on. Pilro PLS, a company we know you're
  864. 38:59quite supportive of, went to went to
  865. 39:01Latin America, they went to Brazil and
  866. 39:03and scooped up Latin resources. What
  867. 39:07what was your kind of perspective on on
  868. 39:09that deal? Did you just go to I thought
  869. 39:11it was a good I I'll be there in two
  870. 39:13weeks. Two weeks. Gotcha. Yeah. Yeah.
  871. 39:15I'll be actually I'll be flying back two
  872. 39:17weeks from tonight. Um so
  873. 39:21I I like the Latin story. Um Sigma's
  874. 39:26done a a surprisingly good job. Uh and I
  875. 39:30only say surprisingly because people had
  876. 39:32low expectations on Brazil. I mean, if
  877. 39:35you look at
  878. 39:36the
  879. 39:38lithium, the lithium world tends
  880. 39:41to adopt change slowly, shall we say,
  881. 39:45and uh Brazil's really performed uh
  882. 39:49better. And you know, there's there's
  883. 39:51multiple projects down there. And I
  884. 39:53literally haven't been in Brazil since
  885. 39:551996. So, I go to South America a couple
  886. 39:59times a year, but the last time I was in
  887. 40:02Brazil was to try to uh get the nuclear
  888. 40:05ban lifted they had. And we used to have
  889. 40:08to get a license every time we sold into
  890. 40:10Brazil and it was a cumbersome process.
  891. 40:13So, I'm happy to be going back to
  892. 40:15Brazil. I think Dale made a really good
  893. 40:17decision. I Dale's a very methodical guy
  894. 40:20and uh I think some messages were also
  895. 40:23being sent there that hey this is it
  896. 40:26isn't just WA.
  897. 40:28Yeah. Well, that message was clearly
  898. 40:30sent when they removed their name from
  899. 40:31being Hilbert to PLS but that came
  900. 40:34later. But it is it's also a statement
  901. 40:36about the you know their isn't it PLS
  902. 40:38global? It I I can't remember you're
  903. 40:40probably right but um yeah the uh just
  904. 40:43emphasizes the point. It's also a
  905. 40:45statement about you know their their you
  906. 40:47know probable views on on you know
  907. 40:49capital intensity and and opex of the
  908. 40:51the relative jurisdictions too.
  909. 40:54Yes. I think uh the other Brazil is
  910. 40:57interesting too because they're likely
  911. 40:59to have the full-blown supply chain. You
  912. 41:03know, BYD
  913. 41:05is very active down there and we'll
  914. 41:09we'll see what happens whether whether
  915. 41:12they have a full-blown supply chain
  916. 41:14before America does. It could happen.
  917. 41:20That would be that'd be quite something
  918. 41:22to to behold. There there was one more
  919. 41:24um bit of bit of insight I wanted to get
  920. 41:27from you that was kind of company
  921. 41:29specific and it's it's in the um the
  922. 41:32sort of West Farmers
  923. 41:34SQM joint venture that we see here
  924. 41:36because we really struggle to get good
  925. 41:38info but we saw on the M&A front rumors
  926. 41:41that Indian groups were looking to to
  927. 41:44buy a sort of 20% stake off
  928. 41:47SQM's portion. What what's your sort of
  929. 41:51latest info that you've got on on Mount
  930. 41:53Holland and and the refinery that
  931. 41:55they're they're doing and any potential
  932. 41:57insight on on the deal? I can't really
  933. 42:00speak to
  934. 42:02um exactly what's going on at Mount
  935. 42:04Holland, but I can tell you from uh
  936. 42:07talking to some of the larger industrial
  937. 42:09companies in India that they have a real
  938. 42:12interest in when a company comes and
  939. 42:15says we're we're going to spend in the
  940. 42:18range of 5 to 15 billion dollars to try
  941. 42:21to go across the energy storage system
  942. 42:25supply chain. and we to do that to have
  943. 42:28confidence we want to
  944. 42:30be vertically integrated
  945. 42:33um and it's a credible it's a credible
  946. 42:35entity and I've talked to multiple
  947. 42:37entities in India um I can't speak to
  948. 42:41their specific interest in SQM because I
  949. 42:43actually told ought to go to Argentina
  950. 42:45but
  951. 42:47um we we'll see I I think it's
  952. 42:50completely plausible and I think SQM got
  953. 42:54outside of their knitting
  954. 42:56by going to
  955. 42:57WA and I think it's been a tough slog
  956. 43:02and
  957. 43:03um maybe when I'm in Western Australia
  958. 43:07in the not too distant future I will I
  959. 43:11will get better information but that's
  960. 43:15just been
  961. 43:16a a tough slog for both West Farmers and
  962. 43:20SQ totally totally I mean that it was it
  963. 43:24was such an interesting moved basem to
  964. 43:25come to to to WA in the hard rock and
  965. 43:28and in some ways kind of forced upon
  966. 43:29them by the dynamics of operating in in
  967. 43:31Chile. They could have gone to
  968. 43:32Argentina. They could have. Yeah. Yeah.
  969. 43:34Yeah. Yeah. That's a and done what they
  970. 43:36know how to do. Valid point for for
  971. 43:38sure. Um Yeah. It is funny to look at
  972. 43:42that. Although they had they had one
  973. 43:43excursion into Argentina that didn't
  974. 43:45work out too well and Gang Ven bought
  975. 43:46him out. Um, but they I think they would
  976. 43:50have had much greater
  977. 43:53success figuring out Argentina brine
  978. 43:56versus out of brine rather than going to
  979. 43:59Hard Rock. And I think uh Mr. Ramos
  980. 44:02drank a little bit of the Chris Ellison
  981. 44:05Kool-Aid. And um they'll pay the price
  982. 44:08for it.
  983. 44:12It's a big price to pay that one. was
  984. 44:16I didn't say this was a happy story.
  985. 44:20Uh
  986. 44:22there's not too many happy stories in
  987. 44:23the lithium land at the moment. You
  988. 44:25think? Um just Yeah, I know you guys
  989. 44:27like to pan lithium. It's it's been it's
  990. 44:29been tough. But
  991. 44:30[Music]
  992. 44:32um what
  993. 44:35other and I will I will pander to you
  994. 44:38Jonas and say commodity has grown
  995. 44:4110x in a decade? I I I take the other
  996. 44:45side Joe. I I think you know from from
  997. 44:48our perspective we're more excited than
  998. 44:51we have been in in a long time on on
  999. 44:55lithium because it's trading so hard in
  1000. 44:56the cost curve. I think there's a the
  1001. 44:58realization though that our assets in
  1002. 45:01our backyard here in in WA perhaps don't
  1003. 45:04sit on the cost curve where we
  1004. 45:06previously might have thought they sit
  1005. 45:09are uh um yeah is it it's a bit appeal
  1006. 45:13to kind of swallow for a lot of folks
  1007. 45:15down here but you know it throws up sort
  1008. 45:17of opportunities and I guess another
  1009. 45:19point I was curious to get your take on
  1010. 45:20is like green bushes it's it's tied up
  1011. 45:23in a in a gnarly kind of ownership
  1012. 45:25structure But there comes a point in
  1013. 45:28time where if you're looking at WA
  1014. 45:30assets, the ones in our backyard here,
  1015. 45:33that green bushes is is certainly one of
  1016. 45:36the better ones there. So, how do you
  1017. 45:38kind of view that and how do you view
  1018. 45:39picking out assets that sit low in the
  1019. 45:42cost curve in a in a uh a commodity or a
  1020. 45:46specialty chemical as you as you kind of
  1021. 45:48say when it's really beaten up? Well,
  1022. 45:51I'm glad we're trying to speak each
  1023. 45:53other's languages here.
  1024. 45:55Um, well, Green Bushes is the best
  1025. 45:58operating hard rock asset in the world.
  1026. 46:01I mean, it's
  1027. 46:03it's not what it once was, but it's
  1028. 46:07still head and
  1029. 46:10shoulders above the other from a cost
  1030. 46:13perspective. The problem with green
  1031. 46:16bushes from my perspective is the
  1032. 46:17convoluted
  1033. 46:19ownership and it would be better placed
  1034. 46:22in one company's hands. That's not the
  1035. 46:25case. Uh I I got to meet Ivan from IGGO
  1036. 46:28in Florida in February. Likable guy. I
  1037. 46:33am, you know, hoping that things turn
  1038. 46:36around for them. And uh but it's it
  1039. 46:41first of all having Abal
  1040. 46:43Marl who hasn't is has zigged when they
  1041. 46:46should have zagged and zagged when they
  1042. 46:48should have zigged for the last seven or
  1043. 46:50eight years. That's tough. Tanchi's got
  1044. 46:54their own set of
  1045. 46:57problems and
  1046. 46:59layering on two failed hydroxide
  1047. 47:01projects to the world's greatest hard
  1048. 47:04rock asset just makes
  1049. 47:07it all the more a sad story
  1050. 47:11for the lithium industry.
  1051. 47:17What What does the uh the future sort of
  1052. 47:19hold for for Alamar? you've you've um
  1053. 47:22you know been been vocal on on your
  1054. 47:24thoughts on on a range of dynamics at
  1055. 47:27play within within the company, but in a
  1056. 47:30in a downturn in a company with with
  1057. 47:33debt, the the challenges can be pretty
  1058. 47:36pretty sort of pressing. How do you
  1059. 47:37foresee the the next few years playing
  1060. 47:39out if we sort of stay where we are and
  1061. 47:42are sort of perhaps plus 20 plus 30%
  1062. 47:45bound on on lithium prices?
  1063. 47:48Yeah, I think if you got plus
  1064. 47:5030% the world would be a lot better
  1065. 47:53place for Abomar, but Abomar's just made
  1066. 47:57so many missteps and
  1067. 48:01they just doing a podcast with them
  1068. 48:06was which I was surprised they actually
  1069. 48:08did, but um it was easier to arrange.
  1070. 48:12I've never had more
  1071. 48:15meetings to arrange a
  1072. 48:17podcast than I did with Apple Marl.
  1073. 48:19Apple Marl's a
  1074. 48:21is has all the
  1075. 48:24bureaucracy of a huge oil
  1076. 48:27company and it's it's a it's a
  1077. 48:29relatively small company. They hired too
  1078. 48:32many people. They had VPs like a a bank.
  1079. 48:38And and I, you know, I I continue to
  1080. 48:41harp on it because I continue to get
  1081. 48:43calls from people that leave the
  1082. 48:44organization that want to bear their
  1083. 48:47souls and I like to listen to it.
  1084. 48:54I don't think there's a I think they
  1085. 48:56need to clean out the leadership and I
  1086. 48:59think they need a new board and I don't
  1087. 49:00think that's about to happen. So I it
  1088. 49:02just you can't have a palywousey board.
  1089. 49:05You can't pay a guy that performed like
  1090. 49:07Ken has the kind of money they've been
  1091. 49:09paying him. It's just it's a travesty as
  1092. 49:11far as I'm concerned.
  1093. 49:16But I don't really have feelings about
  1094. 49:17it.
  1095. 49:20Yeah. It's it's hard hardressed to to
  1096. 49:23argue with a lot of those those
  1097. 49:24perspectives.
  1098. 49:26No, they have the two two of the best
  1099. 49:28assets out there.
  1100. 49:30How can they be where they
  1101. 49:33are? Lack of good strategy, lack of good
  1102. 49:39tactics, and lack of good
  1103. 49:42leadership culminates in pretty pretty
  1104. 49:45questionable capital allocation. I mean,
  1105. 49:46how many of their how many of their
  1106. 49:48growth projects or or everything have
  1107. 49:50just been like zero revenue generating
  1108. 49:53decisions?
  1109. 49:55I felt like I was reading Mad Magazine,
  1110. 49:59which I'm sure you guys don't know what
  1111. 50:00that is, but it it was a kind of a Yeah.
  1112. 50:03Yeah. Mad Magazine kind of says it all.
  1113. 50:08I when they were going to when they made
  1114. 50:12the offer for Liontown, I thought this
  1115. 50:14is straight out of Mad Magazine. I I
  1116. 50:16don't get it. And that's no projorative
  1117. 50:19on Liontown. I love the guys at Lion
  1118. 50:21Town. Um, you know, it's it's tough
  1119. 50:25times with the way the market is, but um
  1120. 50:28I'm just saying that
  1121. 50:31uh Gina Gina benevolently saved Apple
  1122. 50:35Marl. That's that's probably the biggest
  1123. 50:38irony of this decade in
  1124. 50:45lithium. Who would have thought it would
  1125. 50:47be like that? Well, yeah. Yeah, I mean
  1126. 50:48this it's been wicked to um for us to
  1127. 50:50ask you the questions that that we have
  1128. 50:53about the space at the moment. Joe, go
  1129. 50:56ahead. Punish me. I It's fine. Right. I
  1130. 51:00mean, I I echo what Joda says, like, you
  1131. 51:02know, we're we're we're of the yolk of
  1132. 51:05certainly being more interested in
  1133. 51:06commodities that are that are beaten up
  1134. 51:07than than they are um when they're when
  1135. 51:10they're flying kind of, you know,
  1136. 51:12obviously the the interest is far far
  1137. 51:15less um from from an audience
  1138. 51:17perspective when commodities are beating
  1139. 51:18up than when they're flying. But for us
  1140. 51:20individuals who who look counterylically
  1141. 51:22then yeah
  1142. 51:24I am seeing in in what I do I I'm seeing
  1143. 51:26there's there's a lot more interest now
  1144. 51:29and I would just you asked a question
  1145. 51:32about India potentially investing I
  1146. 51:36think that's happening I think what
  1147. 51:39Exxon and Ecuador are doing they're not
  1148. 51:41worried about the vagaries of lithium
  1149. 51:43price in the next three or four years it
  1150. 51:44doesn't matter to them
  1151. 51:47they they can do what they want to do
  1152. 51:49and and that's the that's the positive
  1153. 51:51side of the lithium
  1154. 51:53story. But to be a junior lithium player
  1155. 51:56right now
  1156. 51:59is kind of like perpetual
  1157. 52:05purgatory. The the the saving grace is
  1158. 52:08that the the juniors flock with a sort
  1159. 52:10of rear view type mirror, not a not a
  1160. 52:13forward-looking type outlook. So yeah,
  1161. 52:17put whatever sort of weight into that as
  1162. 52:19you will. I' I'd be curious to to hear,
  1163. 52:22Joe, one thing that we notice given
  1164. 52:24we're we're both in the podcast uh to,
  1165. 52:27you know, sort of game to an extent. Um
  1166. 52:29we we definitely noticed the the
  1167. 52:31interest in in lithium since we sort of
  1168. 52:33started two years
  1169. 52:34ago. Eb and flow, you know, it sort of
  1170. 52:37was very high 2023 and it sort of trails
  1171. 52:41off. Is is that a kind of sentiment
  1172. 52:44gauge the the viewership that you get in
  1173. 52:46your your podcast? Do you notice that
  1174. 52:48sort of change substantially over, you
  1175. 52:52know, because you've done it a lot
  1176. 52:53longer than we have? Well, I I spare my
  1177. 52:55audience the need to view me. It's just
  1178. 52:58my voice. Um, but no, I the it's it's
  1179. 53:03really funny. I mean, there's only one
  1180. 53:05country on earth where I don't have a
  1181. 53:07download, and that's
  1182. 53:08Bhutan, and that's Spotify stats. 196
  1183. 53:12countries. Um, I can predict the first
  1184. 53:1748 hours the podcast is up. Doesn't
  1185. 53:19matter who I have on, I'm going to hit
  1186. 53:22this number, this hour, and and all the
  1187. 53:26way through. Um, I really haven't
  1188. 53:29noticed
  1189. 53:31um much of a difference in
  1190. 53:36um listenership.
  1191. 53:39Interesting. Yeah, it is. I I have a I
  1192. 53:44have a loyal following that they just
  1193. 53:46like to punish themselves every couple
  1194. 53:48of weeks. I don't know.
  1195. 53:51There was there was a couple other um
  1196. 53:53assets and and companies I wanted to get
  1197. 53:55your your quick takes on. So, we spoke
  1198. 53:58uh earlier in the week or maybe last
  1199. 53:59week about um Galan. They uh subtly
  1200. 54:03announced that they they bounced back an
  1201. 54:06offer and then latest rumors they're
  1202. 54:08coming out for a a capital raise. What's
  1203. 54:10your what's your take on on the asset
  1204. 54:13and on the uh the kind of strategy?
  1205. 54:18They have been hamstrung by the market
  1206. 54:22conditions and I know they have a lot of
  1207. 54:26disgruntled
  1208. 54:27shareholders. I understand
  1209. 54:30um a lot of people bought at at the top
  1210. 54:35and you are unhappy. But it if you look
  1211. 54:38at what they're trying to do, it's it's
  1212. 54:39a tough it's a tough market.
  1213. 54:43Um I I don't I have a little money in
  1214. 54:46Galan. I I I'm a little underwater. Not
  1215. 54:50much because I you know didn't I I
  1216. 54:54bought it very late. Um but I like I
  1217. 54:59like JP. You know, I'm very close to
  1218. 55:01Daniel Jimenez. Uh, I think it's a good
  1219. 55:04asset and if I was going to sell it, I
  1220. 55:06certainly wouldn't take the offer they
  1221. 55:09got, but yeah, moving it
  1222. 55:14forward is still a challenge.
  1223. 55:20Yeah. Yeah, for sure. What one of the
  1224. 55:22other assets was Gulamina and you spoke
  1225. 55:25in a in a recent podcast about this sort
  1226. 55:30of not not being the kind of focus in a
  1227. 55:32sense that that Gangfang is prioritizing
  1228. 55:35Brian's but this is obviously a
  1229. 55:38substantial project and we we hear about
  1230. 55:41it a lot less since the uh you know the
  1231. 55:46the the since it's not Leo Lithium
  1232. 55:49anymore. Yeah. In a nutshell,
  1233. 55:52yeah, I think Gang
  1234. 55:55Fan as well as they've done has a lot of
  1235. 55:58challenges because they have
  1236. 56:02multiple good brine projects,
  1237. 56:05but Gangfen likes to talk about gang
  1238. 56:08fence speed and gang fence speed is
  1239. 56:10certainly true inside China.
  1240. 56:12gang ben speed slows down marketkedly
  1241. 56:16outside of China. And I think the
  1242. 56:18challenge uh they have now is that they
  1243. 56:22have such a big
  1244. 56:25portfolio that
  1245. 56:28uh I think they you know
  1246. 56:32Golamina I would think based on the
  1247. 56:36capacities they have and uh the need for
  1248. 56:41rock that that
  1249. 56:43Golamina gets gets the attention. But I
  1250. 56:47would be surprised if they did
  1251. 56:51additional significant Hard Rock uh
  1252. 56:54before they get some of the Bryant
  1253. 56:55assets online. And I mean, just look at
  1254. 56:58the their uh last quarter announcement.
  1255. 57:02I mean, it's it's tough times even for
  1256. 57:05Gang Van.
  1257. 57:09Fascinating stuff, Joe. appreciate you
  1258. 57:12uh you making the time and letting us
  1259. 57:14pick your brain on on every asset under
  1260. 57:16the sun and uh yeah, letting us sort of
  1261. 57:19ponder what the West can do about
  1262. 57:21catching up with with the the sort of
  1263. 57:24bullet train that China is.
  1264. 57:27Well, when the bullet train leaves the
  1265. 57:29station 10 years before the next bullet
  1266. 57:32train, uh it is going to be hard to
  1267. 57:35catch up. But uh I I do have a belief
  1268. 57:40that the US will have a have or North
  1269. 57:43America will have a supply chain.
  1270. 57:46Um but it's it's not going to be the
  1271. 57:49scale of China. It's not you know it's
  1272. 57:51just it's it's going to be different.
  1273. 57:53They picked they
  1274. 57:55picked the energy transition to focus
  1275. 57:59on and we continued to dither
  1276. 58:05about battery packs
  1277. 58:07and you know subsidies
  1278. 58:11and we
  1279. 58:13are reaping what we sowed.
  1280. 58:18We um we'll keep paying attention that's
  1281. 58:20for sure. you um when we reached out and
  1282. 58:22asked for an interview, Joe, you said
  1283. 58:23only if you can ask us a couple of
  1284. 58:25questions at the end. So, you've got the
  1285. 58:27floor.
  1286. 58:31Gentlemen, you've been doing this now
  1287. 58:32for two years. Two years, give or take.
  1288. 58:36Yep.
  1289. 58:39Each of
  1290. 58:40you, what have you learned about
  1291. 58:43yourself in the process
  1292. 58:45of talking to people every day?
  1293. 58:50and you'll answer that and then I'll ask
  1294. 58:52you a
  1295. 58:57followup. It is rapid fire, boys.
  1296. 59:01Good thing we can edit.
  1297. 59:06Um I in the process of talking to people
  1298. 59:08every day, what have I learned about
  1299. 59:09myself? I reckon I've learned that
  1300. 59:13uh I can change my mind more than I
  1301. 59:17thought. I actually thought I was quite
  1302. 59:18like stubborn and would be very um stuck
  1303. 59:21in an opinion. But I think when you do
  1304. 59:23speak to lots of different different
  1305. 59:25people, different expertise, I yeah, I
  1306. 59:27do have a capability to to change my
  1307. 59:30opinion especially when you know I think
  1308. 59:31the the new person I meet the new
  1309. 59:33perspective um is is is like you know
  1310. 59:36they come from a place of logic.
  1311. 59:40Yeah, it's a good good question, Joe.
  1312. 59:43the the way I'd sort of answer it is I
  1313. 59:45think about the I think it's the Dunning
  1314. 59:47Krueger effect and I think about like
  1315. 59:48where where you are on on the the range
  1316. 59:51of sort of knowing something about a
  1317. 59:54particular kind of subject and kind of
  1318. 59:57bizarrely I feel like we we learn more
  1319. 59:59every every day about mining and you
  1320. 1:00:02know the the gist of it is that you you
  1321. 1:00:04think you know a whole lot more when
  1322. 1:00:05you're at the beginning of the journey
  1323. 1:00:07and you know every day for the last two
  1324. 1:00:09years we we learn more but I feel like I
  1325. 1:00:10know less and less and less and there's
  1326. 1:00:12so many smart people out there that have
  1327. 1:00:14such sort of nuanced and well thoughtout
  1328. 1:00:16views on on topics that we sort of dive
  1329. 1:00:20into for a for a couple of days and yeah
  1330. 1:00:23I think sort of got to got to stay true
  1331. 1:00:25to it and think you're you're learning
  1332. 1:00:26more but it's it's amazing um how much
  1333. 1:00:30is out there and and the knowledge that
  1334. 1:00:31people sort of build up like yourself
  1335. 1:00:33doing something for 20 30 years and yeah
  1336. 1:00:37to to finish that piece off we're we're
  1337. 1:00:39pretty grateful that that people do
  1338. 1:00:40share their their knowledge with
  1339. 1:00:43What have you learned about asking
  1340. 1:00:45questions?
  1341. 1:00:49Say less.
  1342. 1:00:52Bingo.
  1343. 1:00:56I'm working on that one still. But yeah,
  1344. 1:00:58the uh I think it's like anything.
  1345. 1:01:00Interviewing people is is a skill and
  1346. 1:01:02you don't get good at it overnight,
  1347. 1:01:04right? So, you need to just work on it
  1348. 1:01:06and work on it and work on it and and
  1349. 1:01:08you hopefully in 10 20 years maybe
  1350. 1:01:11you'll be okay at it.
  1351. 1:01:14Yeah. No, I actually
  1352. 1:01:16think I don't listen to you guys every
  1353. 1:01:18day, but I I do
  1354. 1:01:20think you ask generally speaking, you
  1355. 1:01:24ask good questions and that that is a
  1356. 1:01:27skill and uh I think I mean it I think
  1357. 1:01:31you come to it and but I I do think you
  1358. 1:01:35hit the nail on the head though. It's
  1359. 1:01:37talking less
  1360. 1:01:38and listening more is is probably the
  1361. 1:01:42answer. And that that was really what I
  1362. 1:01:44had to learn when I started doing this.
  1363. 1:01:46It's hard when you like to talk, isn't
  1364. 1:01:50it? It isn't
  1365. 1:01:56anymore. But yeah, it probably it it
  1366. 1:02:01probably that's the the big transition.
  1367. 1:02:04And as a
  1368. 1:02:07business, what have you found is the
  1369. 1:02:09biggest challenge.
  1370. 1:02:20I am loving the silence.
  1371. 1:02:25Uh the the biggest the biggest challenge
  1372. 1:02:30is sort of staying staying true to the
  1373. 1:02:33the kind of mission you you set out for
  1374. 1:02:37when uh when money gets involved, right?
  1375. 1:02:40You you start out and we and we start
  1376. 1:02:42out wanting to be independent and not
  1377. 1:02:44take money from from mining companies.
  1378. 1:02:47And
  1379. 1:02:49like it's not that mining companies have
  1380. 1:02:52come and offered us big cash, you know,
  1381. 1:02:54paychecks or anything like that, but you
  1382. 1:02:57know, it's all the stuff on the edges,
  1383. 1:02:59you know, and once you start kind of
  1384. 1:03:02doing this and doing that, you get you
  1385. 1:03:03get distracted or maybe you get you get
  1386. 1:03:05kind of sloppy on the fringes. And I
  1387. 1:03:06think just staying true is the uh the
  1388. 1:03:10the most important thing. Yeah. And I'
  1389. 1:03:13I'd kind of build off that. It's just
  1390. 1:03:16it's focus, I'd say. It's like um yeah,
  1391. 1:03:19one one thing someone else in media once
  1392. 1:03:20said to us was it's it's much more
  1393. 1:03:22important what you say no to than what
  1394. 1:03:23you say yes to. And you know,
  1395. 1:03:26remembering to say no very very often is
  1396. 1:03:30um yeah is a big challenge.
  1397. 1:03:33Well, when I met you guys
  1398. 1:03:36um and I asked you what your day jobs
  1399. 1:03:39were,
  1400. 1:03:41what did he say? And he said he said,
  1401. 1:03:43"No, this is what we do."
  1402. 1:03:48And I thought, "Wow." I I felt like a
  1403. 1:03:50shit because I was like, "I'm not I
  1404. 1:03:52didn't I didn't mean it as an insult. I
  1405. 1:03:54just Yeah, you hadn't been doing it very
  1406. 1:03:56long. I figured you guys must like have
  1407. 1:03:58jobs." Yeah. I I don't even know if it
  1408. 1:04:00was paying the bills completely back
  1409. 1:04:02then, Joe, but it was um we're all just
  1410. 1:04:05a bit pro bono. We're all a bit
  1411. 1:04:06delinquent and thought we'll give it a
  1412. 1:04:08crack and if it doesn't work, it doesn't
  1413. 1:04:09work. But um we're still here 2 years
  1414. 1:04:11later, which is a is a relief. Well,
  1415. 1:04:14give my regards to Maddie and um the
  1416. 1:04:17next time I'm in town, I'm coming
  1417. 1:04:19calling for one of those Money of Mind
  1418. 1:04:21shirts, please. Yeah, we'll we'd love to
  1419. 1:04:25have you in the studio. And um you know
  1420. 1:04:27what I And this is I'm going to invite
  1421. 1:04:29Dwayne Sparks to be on this podcast with
  1422. 1:04:32me when I'm in Perth. Call out Dwayne.
  1423. 1:04:36Make it happen. If anyone Yeah. Yeah, if
  1424. 1:04:38anyone can make him come, it's it's you,
  1425. 1:04:39Joe. I um I Yeah, I I'd w we'd we'd all
  1426. 1:04:44welcome that opportunity, so let's hope
  1427. 1:04:45it happens.
  1428. 1:04:47Well, I I I think it will. I have never
  1429. 1:04:50met him either, but he seems like a
  1430. 1:04:53swell guy.
  1431. 1:04:55I think we're going to have to go to
  1432. 1:04:56Katanning to to meet him. Um because he
  1433. 1:04:59keeps running away.
  1434. 1:05:01Well, I'll go wherever. Yeah. I mean,
  1435. 1:05:03this this is my mission. This is like a
  1436. 1:05:06a pilgrimage halfway across the earth to
  1437. 1:05:10me. Dwayne seeking Dwayne Sparks. That
  1438. 1:05:13can be the name of the episode.
  1439. 1:05:19All right, guys. Well, I think you're
  1440. 1:05:21done with me. So, thank you so much,
  1441. 1:05:23Joe. We're never done with you. U the
  1442. 1:05:25industry will never be done with you
  1443. 1:05:26because you have been with it forever.
  1444. 1:05:28So, thank you so much for for for
  1445. 1:05:30sharing your insight, your time, your
  1446. 1:05:31knowledge of the the past, present, and
  1447. 1:05:33future.
  1448. 1:05:34Um, we really appreciate it. You will
  1449. 1:05:36you will have you'll have a mention in
  1450. 1:05:39my book.
  1451. 1:05:42Those pesky kids from Perth.
  1452. 1:05:47Nice alliteration. All
  1453. 1:05:49right. Cheers, Joe. See you. Thank you
  1454. 1:05:52very much, Mr. Lithium, for connecting
  1455. 1:05:55with us back in Australia. Good work,
  1456. 1:05:57boys. Loved it. Thanks to Joe. It was a
  1457. 1:06:00uh yeah, a pleasure to catch up with him
  1458. 1:06:01and and just take stock of of everything
  1459. 1:06:03in in a market that has been pretty
  1460. 1:06:04tumultuous over over the last couple
  1461. 1:06:06years. I see you went podcast for
  1462. 1:06:08podcast on to you guys at the end. He
  1463. 1:06:10did. Yeah, he did. The condition of
  1464. 1:06:12doing the interview, Maddie.
  1465. 1:06:14We'll extend that big thank you Trev to
  1466. 1:06:16our awesome partners. Get your tickets
  1467. 1:06:18for the GRX conference. May I'm going I
  1468. 1:06:21got to book me tickets after this
  1469. 1:06:22actually. May 20 to May 22nd in Brizzy.
  1470. 1:06:25Yeah, mate. Can't wait. The center of
  1471. 1:06:26tech and innovation. discount codes on
  1472. 1:06:29the show notes. I chucked a link in post
  1473. 1:06:30up. Use the code otherwise they'll think
  1474. 1:06:33we're shit. Uh bloody mentioned in the
  1475. 1:06:35show MMS and Grounded. We got bloody
  1476. 1:06:38sandy ground sports C insurance K drill
  1477. 1:06:41WA Waterboards Quattro
  1478. 1:06:44KCA Black Diamond Drilling Services and
  1479. 1:06:47Cross Boundary Energy.
  1480. 1:06:50Uru information contained in this
  1481. 1:06:52episode of money of mine is of general
  1482. 1:06:54nature only and does not take into
  1483. 1:06:55account the objectives, financial
  1484. 1:06:57situation or needs of any particular
  1485. 1:06:59person. Before making any investment
  1486. 1:07:01decision, you should consult with your
  1487. 1:07:03financial adviser and consider how
  1488. 1:07:05appropriate the advice is to your
  1489. 1:07:07objectives, financial situation and
  1490. 1:07:09needs.

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