AI Super Cycle or Market Bubble? - How This Market Wizard Is Trading Now — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Are we in a bubble or are we in the
- 0:02biggest thing to ever happen to
- 0:03humankind? Right. And and you know,
- 0:05you're not nearly investing aggressive
- 0:06enough. I think we're still
- 0:07exceptionally early. I think when we
- 0:09when we think about AI generally, uh
- 0:11everything we've been experiencing and
- 0:13everything we are set to experience the
- 0:16next couple of years all kind of fall in
- 0:18the first stages of the AI super cycle.
- 0:21We're going to see a widening of the
- 0:23companies who are benefiting from
- 0:25artificial intelligence over the next
- 0:27few years. So rather than it be 15 or 20
- 0:29names, I think we'll actually see
- 0:31hundreds of companies, maybe thousands
- 0:33of companies that are publicly listed
- 0:35that will meaningfully benefit. I think
- 0:37the most interesting thing right now
- 0:38happening in AI that no one is talking
- 0:40about is that we have millions to tens
- 0:42of millions of humans around the world
- 0:44that are all working 30% to 200% harder
- 0:49than they ever have. Biggest story in AI
- 0:51right now is what are these people
- 0:53building? What is the world going to
- 0:55look like in 5 years when these 20
- 0:58million people that are sleeping 3 hours
- 1:00a night right now? Because they're
- 1:01building with frontier models in their
- 1:04bedroom. They're solving problems. We're
- 1:06about to democratize the intelligence
- 1:09layer. So once you democratize the
- 1:11intelligence layer, all of the other
- 1:13aspects of life become meaningfully more
- 1:16valuable. Right? I don't know how you
- 1:18would be in any part of the investment
- 1:21sector and not heavily engage with AI to
- 1:24do nothing other than check yourself and
- 1:27to aid in your research and to aid in
- 1:29your thinking and to kind of play
- 1:31devil's advocate on everything that you
- 1:32do.
- 1:33>> Hey everyone, welcome back to another
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- 2:43[music]
- 2:45Okay, welcome back everybody. Uh joining
- 2:48us next is Chris Millow, individual
- 2:50investor and market wizard who is known
- 2:52for social arbitrage strategy. He's the
- 2:54host of the dumb money contest uh
- 2:56podcast and has been one of the leading
- 2:58voices of the AI theme and how investors
- 3:01can ride the waves. So Chris, first and
- 3:03foremost, thank you so much for taking
- 3:04the time. Pleasure to have you here,
- 3:07>> dude. Happy to be here as always for
- 3:09retail investors any day.
- 3:11>> Yeah, awesome. Um we've got a lot to
- 3:13touch on today. I think we want to focus
- 3:15a lot on where we are within the AI
- 3:17waves, uh the skepticism around what's
- 3:20going on right now, um and kind of what
- 3:22that next layer of the the AI wave and
- 3:25that theme can be. So, uh to start
- 3:28things off, u maybe give us some
- 3:29context. Where do you think we are
- 3:31currently within the AI theme in terms
- 3:34of the waves that you've seen? You've
- 3:35talked about that a bunch of different
- 3:37podcasts. Where do you think we are
- 3:38right now?
- 3:40>> I think we're still exceptionally early.
- 3:42I think when we when we think about AI
- 3:44generally uh everything we've been
- 3:46experiencing and everything we are set
- 3:49to experience the next couple of years
- 3:51all kind of fall in the first stages of
- 3:54the AI super cycle which is essentially
- 3:58the discovery of intelligence right uh
- 4:01which is where we were 3 years ago with
- 4:04that chat GPT moment and we were all
- 4:07kind of racing as investors to figure
- 4:09out the best way to trade and take
- 4:12advantage of this moment in time. uh we
- 4:15quickly transitioned into the AI
- 4:19infrastructure
- 4:21uh kind of wave which was probably the
- 4:23biggest thing that we've experienced in
- 4:26a very long time where we have 15 to 20
- 4:28names uh across the chip uh and cloud
- 4:32computing and energy
- 4:34>> energy y
- 4:35>> you know I infrastructure
- 4:38uh that have quite honestly captured the
- 4:42vast majority of market gains over the
- 4:44past 18 months, right? So, if you look
- 4:46over the past 12 to 18 months, there are
- 4:48very small number of names that have
- 4:49captured the bulk of that market
- 4:52movement. And I think that has led us to
- 4:55a place where investors are confused. Uh
- 4:59it it feels like we're in a bubble
- 5:00sometimes. It nothing seems to make
- 5:03sense. Uh the market moves erratically
- 5:06on a daily and weekly basis. And I
- 5:09cannot recall a time in my life where
- 5:14over a period of months and years
- 5:17investors have had so much confusion. Uh
- 5:21and there's been so much conflict in
- 5:24terms of where we are, where we're
- 5:26headed, what's real, uh what's not. Are
- 5:30we in a bubble? Are we not? Are we in a
- 5:33bubble or are we in the biggest thing to
- 5:35ever happen to humankind? Right. and and
- 5:38we're not, you know, you're not nearly
- 5:40investing aggressive enough.
- 5:42>> You know, I've spoken about this
- 5:43recently. I think
- 5:44>> we are on the precipice in the next few
- 5:47months, the next couple of years of
- 5:49entering kind of the third wave of the
- 5:52AI super cycle, which is still early.
- 5:54This is all the first piece of it which
- 5:56is the AI efficiency wave which is where
- 6:00companies actually start to extract
- 6:03meaningful value out of artificial
- 6:05intelligence in terms of lifts in
- 6:08productivity.
- 6:10uh you know massive increases in
- 6:12efficiency
- 6:14uh the ability to either operate asis at
- 6:18a much lower cost basis or where I think
- 6:20we're headed the ability to meaningfully
- 6:23grow uh without having to add
- 6:27significant expense and headcount and we
- 6:31are going to see economies expand but
- 6:33and expand in such a way where companies
- 6:36are able to kind of capt capture
- 6:40uh more meaningful markets without the
- 6:43traditional capex that they would have
- 6:46to spend to get there. And my thought is
- 6:49that we're going to see a widening of
- 6:51the companies who are benefiting from
- 6:54artificial intelligence over the next
- 6:56few years. So rather than it be 15 or 20
- 6:58names, I think we'll actually see
- 7:00hundreds of companies that will maybe
- 7:02thousands of companies that are publicly
- 7:04listed that will meaningfully benefit.
- 7:07And if you're an investor and you're
- 7:09just trying to figure out generally um
- 7:12where does the market at large go over
- 7:14the next 3 to 5 years, I think the
- 7:16optimistic take would be that the AI
- 7:19efficiency wave just tends to lift
- 7:23economies
- 7:24uh in a macro sense in terms of
- 7:28companies being able to grow and grow uh
- 7:31with a lower cost basis. Now that
- 7:33doesn't necessarily mean that companies
- 7:36are laying off you know employees at
- 7:40scale across every industry sector. I
- 7:43think there will be some industry
- 7:44sectors where you generally start to see
- 7:45a tightening uh of labor because they
- 7:48want to operate more efficiently and
- 7:50maybe they don't have as clear of a
- 7:53roadmap for how to apply AI to chase
- 7:56growth that's sitting in front of them
- 7:59and that will be damaging uh for some
- 8:02employees across some sectors. But I
- 8:04think we will see a lot more of
- 8:07companies realizing, wow, an employee
- 8:09can do 3x the work, 5x the work in some
- 8:12cases,
- 8:12>> solve more problems, do more work on
- 8:15projects. Yeah.
- 8:16>> You know, solving problems that that
- 8:18weren't really
- 8:20uh economically feasible to solve
- 8:23before, right?
- 8:25>> And I think companies see that and they
- 8:28think, let's chase those 10 initiatives.
- 8:31Let's chase those five initiatives that
- 8:33we didn't think were economically
- 8:36feasible but today are economically
- 8:37feasible and let's do that with our
- 8:40existing employee base or potentially
- 8:43tweaking our employee base or what I
- 8:45think is actually more likely although
- 8:47not a lot of people are talking about
- 8:48this expanding our employee base
- 8:52somewhat uh to chase those opportunities
- 8:54because we we kind of see where we can
- 8:57hit our our margins and expand our
- 8:59margins right uh in this new world where
- 9:01the where the intelligence layer I is
- 9:05maybe not immediately less expensive but
- 9:07certainly you have an outlook 3 to 5
- 9:09years where where it will get
- 9:10meaningfully less expensive than the
- 9:12labor count would have cost you
- 9:14historically. So I think if you're an
- 9:16optimist and I am that is how I see this
- 9:20unfolding. Some companies will benefit
- 9:22more than others. It it's hard to
- 9:25envision a scenario where where where
- 9:27that doesn't play out. I think the big
- 9:29question is how long does it take to
- 9:32play out and how many bumps in the road
- 9:35do we have you know between now and when
- 9:39this kind of massive amount of
- 9:41productivity and massive amount of high
- 9:43efficiency growth hits macro markets you
- 9:46know will there be a multi-year period
- 9:49where companies just tend to be too
- 9:52conservative and they pull back and
- 9:55there's an employment issue or an
- 9:57unemployment issue
- 9:59that potentially leads to a recession.
- 10:01That's certainly in the cards. And I
- 10:02don't think anybody can predict with
- 10:04accuracy whether or not we're going to
- 10:06experience that and and if so, how big
- 10:08it will be, how long it will last. I
- 10:11have confidence in where we'll
- 10:12ultimately end up, right? And and so
- 10:14what I have less confidence in is the
- 10:17timeline and exactly how we get there.
- 10:20And you know, if I'm an investor right
- 10:22now, and I've been saying this, I'd be
- 10:24really careful when it comes to leverage
- 10:26right now. And I'm a big leverage guys,
- 10:28you know, so I love leverage. Uh but I
- 10:31would just be careful in how you apply
- 10:34that leverage over what timelines and
- 10:37trying to,
- 10:39you know,
- 10:41really wrap your head around a timeline
- 10:44for what's going to happen in the
- 10:45market. I think a lot of us are fooling
- 10:48ourselves that we can do that in in this
- 10:51type of volatile market because it it it
- 10:53you might be right and it really doesn't
- 10:56matter. uh because I think perception
- 10:58rules right now and any crack in the
- 11:02news flow that is a negative any thesis
- 11:05that comes out from anyone with any
- 11:08degree of respect even if they don't
- 11:10really deserve that respect right uh if
- 11:13they have attention if they get eyeballs
- 11:16that's enough to shake the market
- 11:19temporarily and and we've seen that time
- 11:21and time again like we almost know we
- 11:24don't know what's going to take down
- 11:25this AI trade
- 11:27the next 90 days. We just know
- 11:28something's going to take it down. That
- 11:30that's almost a guarantee at this point,
- 11:32right? Like I don't know what it is, but
- 11:34it's going you better be ready for it
- 11:35because something is going to take down
- 11:37the AI trade temporarily about every 30
- 11:40to 90 days.
- 11:41>> We've had the tariffs Iran all all this
- 11:44stuff has come in and caused those
- 11:45corrections. Yeah. along the way.
- 11:48>> And the reason for that is we're dealing
- 11:49with subject matter that most investors
- 11:52just simply do not understand whether
- 11:55they're institutional investors and
- 11:57we've seen this is just really
- 11:58astonishing. I've never seen uh the gap
- 12:03uh tighten so much between institutional
- 12:06investors, institutional research and
- 12:09retail investors with retail research,
- 12:11right? And in some ways, retail
- 12:15investors, some some portion of them are
- 12:18getting meaningfully smarter. I would
- 12:20say most retail investors because we
- 12:22just have so many of them in the market
- 12:24right now are are emotional because
- 12:27they're new, relatively new. They
- 12:29haven't seen things like this before.
- 12:32Uh, and they tend to get shaken out
- 12:35pretty quick. Uh, because they're
- 12:37they're generally levered more than they
- 12:39ever have been. And when you're a retail
- 12:41investor and you're levered, uh, you're
- 12:44you're quick to pull the trigger when
- 12:46when things turn the other way. So
- 12:49meanwhile, institutional investors are
- 12:51just simply acting more like retail
- 12:52investors than I've ever seen them
- 12:54before. They are chasing attention. They
- 12:58are chasing hype and perception. They're
- 13:01trying to get in front of retail
- 13:03investors of what retail investors are
- 13:04going to do next. uh as opposed to
- 13:08having kind of their own independent
- 13:12uh moreminded
- 13:13thesis and and they're unwilling to kind
- 13:17of take the short-term risk to be wrong
- 13:19in the short term because of market
- 13:21fluctuations and be right in the long
- 13:23term and historically that's where your
- 13:26institutional funds you've really
- 13:27counted on them to be you know smart in
- 13:31that way and not get shaken out. I think
- 13:32with the algo trading uh with hedging
- 13:36with everything everyone is trying to
- 13:38make money every day in the market every
- 13:41week and every month and that is a
- 13:44dangerous place to be. It it really is a
- 13:47dangerous place to be where you feel
- 13:48that you need to be up every week every
- 13:51month. Um it's a very difficult thing to
- 13:55pull off. I've never known an investor
- 13:56to pull that off meaningfully over the
- 13:59long term. Uh, and it's just it puts you
- 14:03in a position to make bad decisions, I
- 14:06think. Right.
- 14:07>> Hey everyone, just want to jump in here
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- 15:30And with that, let's get back to the
- 15:31interview.
- 15:33I want to call back to something you
- 15:34said, you know, at the very beginning,
- 15:36you know, looking at this current wave,
- 15:38the infrastructure wave. Um, and I know
- 15:41you've been trading this, you know, with
- 15:43the semiconductor memory names. uh be I
- 15:46know has been a huge uh name for you
- 15:48riding this infrastructure wave. Um how
- 15:51close is that to cresting or do you
- 15:53think it has more legs the kind of
- 15:55infrastructure segment of this AI theme?
- 15:58I don't know where do you think we are
- 15:59with still this the second wave here?
- 16:04>> I think infrastructure has a ways to go.
- 16:07Um, I think if you look at how we
- 16:10believe AI will play out over the next
- 16:13three to five years,
- 16:16we are going to continue to thirst for
- 16:18more. Um, anytime
- 16:21we achieve more in terms of what the
- 16:24models can do on the frontier of these
- 16:27models or what the compute can do, I
- 16:30think what we'll see is not, oh great,
- 16:33we could do more with less now. It's
- 16:35more of like, wow,
- 16:38what can we possibly do now with this
- 16:40intelligence? And I think that will
- 16:42continue to kind of loop back and drive
- 16:45more thirst for more compute for more
- 16:49solutions to more problems uh to create
- 16:52new industries.
- 16:55Listen, this is a bit of an unknown
- 16:57right now. Now, I know we have we have
- 16:59uh Jeb's paradox, which is kind of like
- 17:00the thesis behind a lot of what I'm
- 17:02saying, and we've seen that kind of
- 17:04happen over and over again, but not to
- 17:07this degree. Um, not happening this
- 17:10fast. So, I think over the long term, I
- 17:15sit on the side that says no matter how
- 17:19much infrastructure we build out,
- 17:22I think I would place my bet on us being
- 17:26constrained. uh over the next few years.
- 17:30Uh I I think there's still going to be a
- 17:32bottleneck because anytime we're able to
- 17:35clear that bottleneck in some way,
- 17:39I think new industries will pop up to
- 17:42create new bottlenecks because
- 17:44intelligence uh as an industry is just
- 17:48too broad. It touches every facet of
- 17:51life. It touches every problem.
- 17:55uh as soon as you know I'll challenge
- 17:58you to think let's just talk about
- 18:00advertising okay this is something we
- 18:01all understand
- 18:03I mean advertising
- 18:05has obviously evolved over the past 70
- 18:09years and at the same time it really
- 18:13hasn't changed all that much right uh
- 18:16but when we look at advertising and we
- 18:18look at new technology and how that's
- 18:21impacted advertising right whether the
- 18:23it was the birth of radio or television,
- 18:28the internet, when we actually had
- 18:30personalization for the first time, uh,
- 18:33personalization was probably one of the
- 18:36biggest game changers we've ever seen,
- 18:38targeting, the whole concept of like
- 18:40individual targeting for advertising
- 18:42through digital media. uh when we're
- 18:44able to take those ads and actually take
- 18:46them away from you know something like
- 18:50this that you're in front of for some
- 18:53part of the day and and put it on this
- 18:56>> which was that Facebook moment right
- 18:58remember that back in the 2000s
- 19:00>> and all of a sudden that advertising
- 19:03became not only personalized but became
- 19:06mobile and was essentially with you
- 19:08every minute of the faking day. That is
- 19:11what created some of the biggest
- 19:13companies in the world like Meta. All
- 19:14right, Google as well obviously, right?
- 19:17Google and Meta. And now we think about
- 19:21what could happen with advertising, just
- 19:24advertising alone, right? Um when AI
- 19:27actually knows everything about you
- 19:29because you entrust the AI, it's so
- 19:31powerful that intelligence layer that
- 19:33you need its assistance for every facet
- 19:35of your life. It knows what you're
- 19:37doing. It knows what you react to. uh it
- 19:40knows what you're, you know, what you
- 19:42need help with. Uh when you combine that
- 19:45with the ability to deliver highly
- 19:48engaging, personalized, immersive
- 19:51advertising that could be two-way
- 19:53engagement advertising. Our brains can't
- 19:55fully comprehend what the future of ads
- 19:58look like. And so, you know, I know
- 19:59there's a lot of meta investors out
- 20:01there. They're like, "Whoa, God, what's
- 20:03happening to Meta? It's it's getting
- 20:04destroyed." And I'm I'm a guy that
- 20:06historically I have not really been
- 20:08invested in Meta uh for a while now, but
- 20:11I think about I think about the um the
- 20:15long case for Meta and if we kind of
- 20:19take this next leap fully immersive,
- 20:22fully customizable advertising like when
- 20:25imagine going to an ad and having that
- 20:28video uh render itself in real time for
- 20:32you with actors or with verbiage that it
- 20:36knows well you will personally relate to
- 20:40because you like to see this type of
- 20:42individual demo a product. You like to
- 20:45see it demoed in this way and it could
- 20:47render fully immersive ads just for you.
- 20:50Now we we're far away from that because
- 20:52the cost of that compute would be
- 20:54absolutely insane today. All right, but
- 20:57imagine a scenario where the cost of
- 21:00compute comes down dramatically.
- 21:04That is an area we're going to go to.
- 21:06So, as soon as the compute gets cheap
- 21:07enough, there are layers and layers of
- 21:11problems and opportunities that will
- 21:13open up to cheaper compute to basically
- 21:16fill that compute and drive the cost of
- 21:18that compute to a level to to where it's
- 21:22balanced again. Right? And so when when
- 21:24if you have an open mind and you don't
- 21:27try to frame AI based purely on a
- 21:32historical mindset of what we experience
- 21:33in our life because nothing is
- 21:36accelerating. We've never seen anything
- 21:37accelerate like we've seen AI
- 21:39accelerate, right? If you're able to
- 21:41reframe that in a go go go off do some
- 21:44meditation for 5 days and now think
- 21:46about the future with with an
- 21:48intelligence layer and think about how
- 21:50it changes the way we live, how we
- 21:52think, how we produce products, how we
- 21:55engage with humans and industry,
- 21:58you get into this infinite loop that is
- 22:01not going to last for a couple years,
- 22:04but I think should last for many, many,
- 22:06many years until we're able to find an
- 22:09absolute balance.
- 22:10and and and we're able to kind of like
- 22:12shake out the supply demand.
- 22:15It's really exciting if you think about
- 22:17it. Uh because when you experience that
- 22:20type of advertising, everyone's going to
- 22:22want to deliver that to you. Every
- 22:24bleeding edge product and company in the
- 22:26world is going to want to engage with
- 22:28you in a way that converts 2x higher, 4x
- 22:32higher, 5x higher. And you know, even if
- 22:36the compute is more expensive, it will
- 22:39actually kind of hit an ROI, right?
- 22:43>> So yeah, if you're bullish, that's a
- 22:45reason to potentially be massively
- 22:47bullish on a company like Meta. You
- 22:50know, I'm an Amazon fan, and that also
- 22:53relates to Amazon, who is the third
- 22:55largest digital advertising company on
- 22:58Earth. And if you could just envision
- 23:00every single ad on Amazon, right, being
- 23:02immersive, uh, being generated in real
- 23:05time, you know, they're there to play as
- 23:09well. But this is just one mod
- 23:10advertising. You could basically take
- 23:12that and and and replicate that
- 23:15narrative across almost every single
- 23:18industry sector on Earth in a different
- 23:20way. And you could redefine what an
- 23:23industry looks like, how that industry
- 23:26interacts with its customer base. I
- 23:29mean, mental health for example, we all
- 23:31so many of us are already using, you
- 23:33know, LLMs for mental health. Um but I
- 23:38think when we you know utilize them for
- 23:40mental health in a fully vertically
- 23:43integrated way right to where it it's
- 23:46not so rogue that okay you you might
- 23:49have a psychologist and but you're also
- 23:52using chat GPT right and then you're
- 23:54still you're going to for your
- 23:57prescriptions and you're going to Amazon
- 23:59right once you kind of imagine once you
- 24:01vertically integrate all of that
- 24:03together and you actually have the
- 24:06ability to now, you know, this sounds
- 24:08this sounds like uh a horrible thing to
- 24:11say, but productize mental health,
- 24:14right? Like like for for pharmaceutical
- 24:17companies and for the healthcare
- 24:19industry and for insurance, right?
- 24:23I just think it's hard to wrap our head
- 24:25around how far this is going to go. And
- 24:27again, you could make this case for
- 24:29every single industry sector. Oh, I
- 24:33think the most I think the most
- 24:35interesting thing right now happening in
- 24:36AI that no one is talking about
- 24:39is that we have millions to tens of
- 24:42millions of humans around the world that
- 24:44are all working 30% to 200% harder than
- 24:50they ever have. Uh if you dig deep and
- 24:53you actually start to
- 24:56uh ingest conversational data of
- 25:00developers and you see what has been
- 25:02going on the last 6 to9 months
- 25:05specifically, you will realize that
- 25:08developers are actually spending more
- 25:12time than they ever have building.
- 25:14Whether they're building for their
- 25:16company, building for their company and
- 25:18for themselves on the side, these
- 25:20developers are not sleeping because they
- 25:22know the moment we're in. They're able
- 25:24to do two to 10x more than they ever
- 25:26have right before. Even people that are
- 25:29not traditional coders and developers
- 25:31are able to get in on this game and
- 25:33actually express what's in their head uh
- 25:37and actually, you know, build, right?
- 25:40Build themselves.
- 25:41>> That prototype cycle is just so much
- 25:43faster now. Anybody who's got an idea at
- 25:45a company can see it through throughout
- 25:48to basically production ready what
- 25:50whatever that idea is. So it opens the
- 25:52door for people who had the expertise
- 25:54the the knowhow uh to actually express
- 25:58and and publish it. Thanks.
- 26:00>> The number the
- 26:02the incidence of of entrepreneurial
- 26:06minds in the world has not changed. We
- 26:08have the same number of entrepreneurial
- 26:11people today that we had five years ago.
- 26:14Those people didn't go away. And what
- 26:18nobody understands because listen, the
- 26:21average person is not a builder and
- 26:23entrepreneur, right? I don't know what
- 26:25the percentage is whether it's single
- 26:27digits or low double digits of humanity.
- 26:31Uh these people are not going to go
- 26:34away. So when you give them these tool
- 26:36sets, they are going to build and build
- 26:39like you wouldn't even believe. Usually
- 26:42these people hit so much friction and
- 26:44they're so frustrated that they go on
- 26:46with their day jobs and they don't build
- 26:48because they can't build because there's
- 26:50too much friction. There's too many
- 26:52barriers to entry as it relates to
- 26:54capital raising, as it relates to
- 26:56building out teams, as it relates to
- 26:58risk because they have families. They
- 27:00have commitments. But now every
- 27:02entrepreneur in the world, every
- 27:04entrepreneurial mind, every builder in
- 27:06the world has been given this gift to
- 27:09build whatever they want to build and
- 27:11they're just getting started. So the
- 27:14biggest story in AI right now is what
- 27:17are these people building? What is the
- 27:19world going to look like in 5 years when
- 27:22these 20 million people that are
- 27:24sleeping three hours a night right now
- 27:26because they're building with frontier
- 27:28models in their bedroom? They're solving
- 27:31problems. They're basically expressing
- 27:33what's been in their head for three or
- 27:35four years that they couldn't build. And
- 27:36now they're actually able to take that
- 27:38idea to market to change the world. What
- 27:41will the world look like because of
- 27:43that? How many new companies will we
- 27:45have birth over the next 3 to 5 years?
- 27:49How many new industry sectors will
- 27:51emerge over the next few years? Because
- 27:54we have tens of millions of people that
- 27:57cannot stop building because and they
- 28:00never will stop. They never will stop.
- 28:02And all this BS about, hey, we're going
- 28:05to have this intelligence is free, so
- 28:07none of us are going to do any work.
- 28:09That's not how we work as humans.
- 28:11>> We're wired to
- 28:12>> Yeah. When you Some of us will some of
- 28:16us are gonna slack and just chill and
- 28:19Yeah. are are gonna ride the wave.
- 28:23of of maybe not having to work as hard
- 28:26if we enter any type of age of abundance
- 28:28in the next 25 to 30 years and you're
- 28:31you know you're able to basically float
- 28:34that's fine there will those people have
- 28:36always existed it's just a different
- 28:38brain chemistry right but the builders
- 28:40are going to build and god I cannot even
- 28:42imagine what's coming out in the next
- 28:44five years six years so yeah when we
- 28:46talk about where we are in this kind of
- 28:51a AI cycle
- 28:53I'm not even sure if we've gotten
- 28:55started yet. Like I'm not even sure if
- 28:57we've really seen the start of it yet
- 28:59because we're looking at existing
- 29:01companies trying to apply AI to solve
- 29:04some additional problems to cut cost.
- 29:07Right? What we're not talking about are
- 29:10the millions to tens of millions of
- 29:13entrepreneurial people around the world
- 29:15that are in the earliest stages of
- 29:17building the next great thing. That's
- 29:19happening, guys. That's happening. And
- 29:21that's the biggest story. That is the
- 29:23number one story right now in the world
- 29:26that no one's talking about. How much
- 29:28compute are they going to need, right?
- 29:30Like it it's very exciting is all I'm
- 29:34saying and and no one's talking about
- 29:35it. Yeah. What do you think are do you
- 29:39have kind of a profile in your head of
- 29:42the companies that will benefit most
- 29:44from the AI efficiency layer? So like um
- 29:47what what are the characteristics of a
- 29:49company that you think will be able to
- 29:52harness AI to grow faster, cut cost,
- 29:57improve margins, um and hopefully you
- 30:00improve their stock price over time as
- 30:02as a result.
- 30:03>> So there's a few different ways to think
- 30:05about this. It's not just one way to
- 30:08take advantage of the AI efficiency
- 30:10wave. You're going to have incumbent
- 30:12companies that are really focused on
- 30:15numbers, right? They haven't really
- 30:17grown all that much in the last 10 years
- 30:20and they're really looking about how can
- 30:22we become more efficient, right? So,
- 30:25companies that have a very high cost
- 30:26structure, any company that has a high
- 30:30employee count of white collar employees
- 30:34that tend to do a lot of physical,
- 30:37excuse me, a lot a lot of repetitive
- 30:38task. So companies that have a
- 30:41tremendous amount of customer service,
- 30:44customer, you know, companies that have
- 30:46just large numbers of repetitive white
- 30:49collar workers, a lot of those companies
- 30:52are simply going to try to chase
- 30:55margins. They're trying to reduce costs
- 30:58because it's a really easy thing to
- 31:01chase once you can figure this out. And
- 31:03I think that happens over the next few
- 31:04years. But there are other companies
- 31:06that are going to look at this
- 31:07differently. they're going to be more
- 31:09aggressive. They're gonna say, "Hey, we
- 31:10we can cut cost or we can repurpose
- 31:14those employees and maybe add to our
- 31:16employee count to start chasing bigger
- 31:18initiatives to start chasing maybe even
- 31:21some a larger number of smaller
- 31:23initiatives that now make financial
- 31:25sense for us." I do think that there
- 31:29will be bumps along the road when the
- 31:31market sees that and they go, "Wait a
- 31:33second. You're spending more money now,
- 31:35not less. you're keeping your employees
- 31:38and you're spending money on compute,
- 31:40you're now less profitable. So, we're
- 31:42going to destroy your stock. And that is
- 31:46a risky proposition for a CEO to take.
- 31:49It's totally different, but similar to
- 31:52what you've seen with mega cap tech
- 31:55going
- 31:56>> all in on capex, spending 120 billion,
- 31:59200 billion on capex,
- 32:00>> raising money even. Yeah. to borrowing
- 32:03debt to simply build out infrastructure
- 32:06for what they see is right in front of
- 32:07their face as an opportunity. Right? So
- 32:10that think about this that opportunity
- 32:13is right in front of the face of Meta,
- 32:16of Google, of Amazon, of Microsoft. And
- 32:20these companies are the biggest
- 32:22companies in the world that historically
- 32:25have done a relatively good job. Not all
- 32:27of them, not all the time. Meta's made
- 32:29some mistakes with capex, some big ones.
- 32:31but but generally have made responsible
- 32:34decisions on capex over time
- 32:38and the market's like we don't care, we
- 32:41don't like it, it's too risky, we're
- 32:43going to punish you. So what happens
- 32:45when you have hundreds of thousands of
- 32:47smaller companies that are doing more
- 32:50speculative things right with capex in
- 32:54terms of not laying off employees and
- 32:57spending a lot of money on compute
- 32:59temporarily their margins get hit but
- 33:01they're like wait a second in our
- 33:03industry sector we're all chasing these
- 33:05things and if we can get there first
- 33:09this is the g the biggest game changer
- 33:11ever for our company so I think we'll
- 33:13see a lot of volatility. I don't think
- 33:16this is going to be like an up and to
- 33:18the right curve in terms of valuations
- 33:21and market appreciation. I I think it'll
- 33:24be a roller coaster. I think a lot of
- 33:25investors are going to freak out over
- 33:28this the same way they freaked out over
- 33:30capex with big tech. And now is the time
- 33:34to really gain a sense of where your
- 33:35conviction lies. How convicted are you
- 33:39in AI? And how convicted are you in the
- 33:43team of the companies you follow to
- 33:46actually make the correct decisions and
- 33:48not simply spend on compute because
- 33:51everyone else is, but actually make
- 33:53these investments because they clearly
- 33:55see opportunity that AI can solve for
- 33:58them. So, this is a great time to be a
- 34:02great investor that actually does their
- 34:05homework and is not just chasing the
- 34:07next hot thing, but actually has a high
- 34:10degree of conviction in the various
- 34:13narratives of these sectors and these
- 34:15companies because there will be amazing
- 34:17opportunities
- 34:19to load up in these companies at prices
- 34:22that are already low for some of these
- 34:25companies and maybe getting a lot lower,
- 34:27right? But the only people with the
- 34:31balls to do that are those that did
- 34:33their homework and really have
- 34:34conviction. Okay? So like
- 34:38this is why it's such a cool time to be
- 34:39an investor because there's like
- 34:41literally investors sitting on both
- 34:43sides of every trade. You could look at
- 34:45every SAS company and you half the
- 34:48investor base is like this is getting
- 34:50destroyed by frontier models. this is
- 34:53going to become a feature of a frontier
- 34:56model as opposed to its own company. And
- 34:59then you have other investors that are
- 35:00like theoretically in time maybe, but
- 35:05not in the next 10 to 15 years. This
- 35:07company is going to cash flow. They have
- 35:11a sticky customer base. They might not
- 35:14be able to grow as quickly, right, as
- 35:16they did before, but they're still going
- 35:18to grow. uh they're also going to
- 35:21simultaneously cut their cost over time
- 35:24and they're going to cash flow and at
- 35:26these stock values this is an incredible
- 35:29investment. What which side of that do
- 35:31you sit on? I mean it it's an it's a
- 35:33it's a good argument to have and it's an
- 35:36argument that probably you know the
- 35:39winner is different for every company
- 35:41and every sector. So I don't I'm not one
- 35:43of these guys where I'm like uniformly
- 35:44SAS is undervalued
- 35:46>> or uniformly SAS is getting destroyed.
- 35:50>> I think there will be companies that do
- 35:51better and companies that do worse and
- 35:54like I haven't put the homework in on
- 35:57service now. I haven't put the homework
- 35:59in on Salesforce and a lot of these
- 36:02other companies to have tremendous
- 36:04conviction in which ones will ultimately
- 36:06be the relative winners and the relative
- 36:10losers. So, I think as an investor, you
- 36:12need to be really careful before you
- 36:14just take an opinion on something
- 36:16without doing the homework because I
- 36:18don't see a lot of investors doing a lot
- 36:20of homework these days. They're so
- 36:23distracted, caught up by noise. They
- 36:25want to have a position. They want to
- 36:27believe in some thesis. They do a tiny
- 36:30bit of work. They maybe watch someone
- 36:32else talking about it, read a couple
- 36:33articles, and then they act as if they
- 36:35have a lot of conviction in something,
- 36:36which is just themselves fooling
- 36:39themselves, quite honestly. What what
- 36:41does homework look like for you when you
- 36:43really get serious about learning about
- 36:44a company and you know you could use
- 36:46something that you're interested in in
- 36:48now or Amazon I know you've done quite a
- 36:50bit of work on and and uh you really are
- 36:53are focused on that in terms of exposure
- 36:55to AI in many different domains but what
- 36:58what should what homework do uh
- 37:00investors need to do to make sure they
- 37:02understand a company its prospects and
- 37:05how it might be impacted by AI? Well,
- 37:08before I can get to a point where I have
- 37:10high conviction in a trade, I do all the
- 37:13work. And what I mean by all the work is
- 37:15I read all the stuff. I read everything
- 37:18that's been written about that company
- 37:19in the past 6 months, every analyst
- 37:22report I can get my hands on, every
- 37:24media story. I read every retail
- 37:27investor opinion. Uh I try to read every
- 37:31meaningful,
- 37:32you know, expost.
- 37:35uh I get into investor chat rooms and I
- 37:38want to get the perspective of everyone.
- 37:41I want to see what the short position
- 37:42is. I want to see what the long position
- 37:44is. I want to know exactly what
- 37:46investors think on both sides of that
- 37:49story, right? I then I then want to go
- 37:52in and do deep deep research on every
- 37:55aspect of the business to assess what
- 37:58people are missing. Right? Like I I want
- 38:01to understand what the drivers are of
- 38:02this business and I want to understand
- 38:05is there anything happening
- 38:08within each of those drivers that people
- 38:10are just misunderstanding or
- 38:12misperceiving where people are just not
- 38:15seeing clearly. Right? It takes between
- 38:1840 and 70 hours for me to do this on a
- 38:21single company. And towards the end, it
- 38:24gets pretty brutal because I find myself
- 38:26late night, you know, barely keeping my
- 38:30eyes open, desperate to find new
- 38:32information. And that's when I know I'm
- 38:34coming to a close on my research when I
- 38:36actually cannot find one piece of
- 38:41conversational data of research anywhere
- 38:45in the world. And by the way, I look at
- 38:46all the alternative data. I pull data.
- 38:48I, you know, every piece of data I can
- 38:51pull, whether it's web traffic, whether
- 38:53it's transactional credit card data,
- 38:55whether it's search data, uh social
- 38:59data, uh people speaking about their
- 39:02products. I I interview store clerks. If
- 39:05it's a company that sells their products
- 39:07at retail, um there's numerous types of
- 39:11data that you can, you know, aggregate
- 39:14that all potentially touch a company.
- 39:18So, I I turn over every rock because I
- 39:21don't want to miss anything. I might be
- 39:24wrong in my thesis, but I don't want to
- 39:26be wrong because I missed some
- 39:30information. And when I'm putting five
- 39:33to 30 plus% of my entire portfolio at
- 39:36risk in a single position, sometimes
- 39:39levered uh where if I'm wrong, I will
- 39:41lose the entirety of that position. So I
- 39:44might lose, you know, double digits,
- 39:47you know, percentage of my entire
- 39:49portfolio if I'm wrong. I need to know
- 39:52everything and that and that's what I
- 39:54do. So it's like it sounds dumb, but I
- 39:56just read everything like I don't I
- 39:58don't leave anything unread. It takes
- 40:00weeks and weeks to do that.
- 40:03>> Are are you leveraging AI in any way
- 40:06while you're doing this? I understand
- 40:07like um that that can be both good and
- 40:10bad. You can you can not like you've
- 40:12trained your brain to look for what
- 40:15you're looking for, but are you
- 40:16leveraging agents to kind of culminate
- 40:19uh resources data for you? Anything like
- 40:21that? Or it's all just manual you doing
- 40:24uh you know searching and and stuff like
- 40:26that?
- 40:27uh recently, the past few months, it's
- 40:29it's heavy-handed on the AI side. I use
- 40:32mostly codecs
- 40:34>> and I use agents to essentially help me
- 40:39overturn every rock, right? Like
- 40:42>> I I I share with codeex everything that
- 40:45I'm learning, my thesis,
- 40:48and it is doing the work alongside me,
- 40:51and it it's trying to poke holes in
- 40:54things that I'm not seeing or that I'm
- 40:55missing. So, it's been a wonderful like
- 40:59partner as a social arb investor,
- 41:02>> you know, it's like having an entire
- 41:05team who were just working with you on
- 41:07your timeline, which has just been
- 41:09absolutely amazing. So, yeah, I mean, I
- 41:12don't know how you don't use it quite
- 41:13honestly. Like, it's wild to me. I don't
- 41:15know how you would be in any part of the
- 41:19investment sector and not heavily engage
- 41:22with AI to do nothing other than check
- 41:25yourself and to aid in your research and
- 41:28to aid in your thinking and to kind of
- 41:30play devil's advocate on everything that
- 41:32you do.
- 41:33>> Yeah. I uh Chris, I wanted to pick your
- 41:35brain on robotics and where that kind of
- 41:38fits into uh the larger waves and
- 41:42thesis. Is that part of the AI
- 41:44efficiency where that's kind of taking
- 41:46over a lot of the labor aspect and where
- 41:49do you see kind of where robotics is
- 41:51now? Uh the timelines of what it could
- 41:53be in in 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. Is
- 41:56it kind of on schedule? Because I know
- 41:58uh you know you you you've talked quite
- 41:59a bit about it in the past.
- 42:01>> Yeah. I I don't think robotics is going
- 42:03to meaningfully impact any of these
- 42:06sectors in the near-term future. I think
- 42:09timelines are way off. As you know, I'm
- 42:11probably one of the biggest robotics
- 42:12bulls in the world. Uh, I think it'll be
- 42:15the biggest addressable market in human
- 42:18history when it actually starts to take
- 42:20shape and we start to scale out
- 42:23deployment of generalized robotics
- 42:25across warehousing and industry and
- 42:28quite honestly every facet of life.
- 42:30>> I just don't think that's happening
- 42:31anytime soon. My timelines have always
- 42:34been a little bit further off than
- 42:36anyone else's and I'm even pushing my
- 42:39timelines back some now. So I think
- 42:44robotics are I mean listen if you're
- 42:46tracking any of the generalized robotics
- 42:48companies it's
- 42:50if you're if you're being truthful with
- 42:52yourself to realize that everyone's
- 42:54delayed meaningfully delayed like we
- 42:56haven't seen Optimus right like Optimus
- 42:58in forever there's a reason for that uh
- 43:00we've seen some videos that have been
- 43:02pretty spectacular but a lot of these
- 43:04videos that are coming out are you know
- 43:08leveraging a highly synthesized ed uh
- 43:12models to have the robots do things over
- 43:16a short time period uh that look
- 43:18spectacular, but they're doing it kind
- 43:20of in the same way over and over again.
- 43:22It's not fully generalized, and this is
- 43:25something I think a lot of investors
- 43:26don't fully comprehend. That said, the
- 43:29the long-term thesis hasn't changed. I
- 43:32think if we start to move into 2030s, we
- 43:35start to see the signs of what robotics
- 43:38will do. probably before 2030s. I think
- 43:40we get into 2028, 2029,
- 43:43investors will start to see enough to
- 43:46where we will repric certain companies
- 43:49and industries based on what we know is
- 43:53coming over the next 5 to 8 years with
- 43:55automation, generalized robotics, uh the
- 43:59ability to scale out physical labor, uh
- 44:03without being reliant on an unstable
- 44:05human labor force, right? That doesn't
- 44:08necessarily mean we're going to do away
- 44:10with the human labor as much as it says
- 44:13that the human labor will be in such
- 44:14high demand uh for more sophisticated
- 44:18use cases that the concept of thinking
- 44:21about human labor to do a repetitive
- 44:23task like this 12 hours a day, 8 hours a
- 44:26day, whatever it is for 30 years is
- 44:29going away as it should because humans
- 44:31shouldn't be doing that type of work in
- 44:34the 2030s and beyond. we should think
- 44:37more of ourselves, right? Like it's easy
- 44:39for us to say we don't want to people,
- 44:41you know, like you don't want to take
- 44:42away those jobs. No, we want to replace
- 44:44those jobs with better jobs for humans.
- 44:47Uh where people get to use their minds
- 44:49more. They get to be a bit more
- 44:51creative. They get to live a bit more of
- 44:53a diverse and safe lifestyle and spend a
- 44:57bit more time engaging with other
- 44:59humans, right? So, I'm really excited
- 45:02about it, but it's not part of the early
- 45:06uh kind of AI efficiency wave that I'm
- 45:09referring to. Got
- 45:10>> what I'm referring to is
- 45:12>> mostly just digital, right? It's it's
- 45:16just in the intelligence layer, but we
- 45:19will see this kicking in in the 2030s,
- 45:21and I think we'll start to price it in
- 45:23before the 2030s
- 45:25as well. to flip the script a little
- 45:28bit. I I want to pick your brain as well
- 45:30on kind of the opposite of AI and
- 45:33digital and like
- 45:34>> kind of get to the root of like human
- 45:36connection. Is there Yeah, because there
- 45:38almost seems like uh uh you know people
- 45:41uh you want to get off their phones a
- 45:42little bit. They're kind of seeking
- 45:43communities more and more. Um you know,
- 45:46one one thing I'm thinking about is um
- 45:49SPHR sphere, the Las Vegas experience,
- 45:52like that in-person experience that is
- 45:54unique to that point in time. um outside
- 45:57of AI and all that, are you interested
- 45:59at all in these kind of industries where
- 46:01it's more about human con connection,
- 46:04in-person experiences,
- 46:06uh that side of things? I'd love to hear
- 46:07kind of your thoughts on on that. Yeah,
- 46:10this is like my biggest thesis in 2020
- 46:13actually, which is why I helped launch a
- 46:16traveling Pokemon show called
- 46:18Collecticon that became the largest
- 46:20Pokemon show in the world that we, you
- 46:22know, recently sold to Ari Emanuel and
- 46:26his group and now they're, you know,
- 46:27getting even bigger. It's very exciting.
- 46:29But I spent five years deeply engaged
- 46:32with in-person experiences. And there's
- 46:36no doubt in my mind that that will be a
- 46:39massive growth industry. Not
- 46:41specifically Pokemon or just Pokemon,
- 46:43but in-person experiences. I have
- 46:46restaurants and for the first time in
- 46:48the last 6 months, I'm seeing more and
- 46:50more people bringing card games to my
- 46:52restaurants and just sitting with each
- 46:54other. Uh, you know, they tend not to
- 46:57drink so much anymore. So economically
- 46:59it's not great for my restaurant, but
- 47:01they hang out and they they're playing
- 47:03cards. You know, they're hanging out
- 47:04with each other face to face. We're
- 47:06seeing more of that. I think we embrace
- 47:09both. I think we fully embrace where AI
- 47:13is leading us because it will be very
- 47:15difficult for our brains to say no to
- 47:17that. the immersiveness of
- 47:22being able to do anything in the digital
- 47:25world, especially with gaming. I think
- 47:27we'll see gaming evolve. Obviously,
- 47:28we'll see what happens with the new GTA
- 47:30coming out later this year, but I I
- 47:32think gaming will become more and more
- 47:34addictive. I think, you know, just
- 47:37engaging uh in the digital world will
- 47:40become more unfortunately or
- 47:42fortunately, it will become more and
- 47:43more addictive. But we'll see an equal
- 47:45amount of thirst
- 47:48>> for
- 47:49to get unglued, right? And so I think
- 47:53we'll do both. I think I think we'll
- 47:55probably see a healthy market for both
- 47:58inperson and, you know, bleeding edge
- 48:01technology
- 48:03as well. I think both will be really
- 48:04healthy. I've had this thesis now, which
- 48:06is my big one around podcasters, right?
- 48:08I I think I think podcasting I think
- 48:11creators I think
- 48:13>> anyone that is
- 48:15>> meaningfully human, the most human of
- 48:18humans, right? Those of us that are the
- 48:20boldest, the most outspoken,
- 48:23uh the most fearless
- 48:26and interesting and creative human
- 48:28voices are going to flourish the next 10
- 48:33years. We will thirst for that. In an
- 48:35age of AI where we can barely tell the
- 48:38difference between what is human and
- 48:40what is AI, we are going to truly learn
- 48:44to appreciate
- 48:45those humans that are most special. The
- 48:48humans that can make us laugh, right?
- 48:50The humans that you know we kind of
- 48:54connect to and relate to uh in a very
- 48:58human way. Uh I think these people will
- 49:02become the rock stars and athletes of
- 49:05the next 20 years. Uh especially when we
- 49:08look at what's happening to traditional
- 49:10media, that world has already blown up.
- 49:13It for the most part doesn't exist. It's
- 49:14just in the early stages of an extremely
- 49:17slow death. So if you fast forward 10 to
- 49:2015 years, I think there are hundreds and
- 49:23hundreds of individual
- 49:26creators uh worth on hundreds of
- 49:31millions of dollars through their uh
- 49:33media enterprises that they're going to
- 49:35be building over the next decade because
- 49:38we will thirst for that. Um I'm really
- 49:41excited about actually I'm building out
- 49:42a podcast studio in Austin. Uh we're
- 49:45launching our first show this fall. I'm
- 49:48launching a new show for me and the Dumb
- 49:49Money crew. We haven't talked about that
- 49:51yet, but it'll be like an instudio show
- 49:53that I'm like wildly excited about. Um,
- 49:56but also, you know, we'll be launching
- 49:59some really interesting shows down in
- 50:01Austin because I just believe that the
- 50:05most prolific voices out there in the
- 50:08world are not yet being heard because of
- 50:11the friction that currently exists
- 50:13between being a solo creator and, you
- 50:16know, doing Tik Toks in your bedroom and
- 50:19actually creating a durable medium to
- 50:22where you could regularly engage with
- 50:24the world. uh in a way that you're able
- 50:27to actually build uh you know like a
- 50:31routine voice, right? That people can
- 50:33depend on and count on and and build on
- 50:36over many years. And my goal is to help
- 50:38find those human voices and help bring
- 50:41them to the world in a much bigger
- 50:42scalable way. I'm doing it for the fun
- 50:45of it because man, when you spent the I
- 50:47spent the last four years of my life
- 50:48kneede in robotics and AI, right? So,
- 50:51like I myself thirst for more of the
- 50:55human experience, right?
- 50:58>> And like I every I had a dinner last
- 51:00night uh and it was just spectacular. It
- 51:02was like a 4hour dinner with a couple
- 51:05guys. One of them I haven't seen in
- 51:07years. And we didn't even drink. Like
- 51:10we're at dinner just talking for four
- 51:13hours. And this is, you know, I spend
- 51:17dozens and dozens of hours a week alone
- 51:20as a lone wolf researching data,
- 51:24conversational data and investment
- 51:26opportunities and
- 51:28and and to get in front of actual humans
- 51:30on a regular basis and just have those
- 51:32shared experiences. It just feels more
- 51:34special today, I don't know, than it did
- 51:37>> seven or eight years ago. Now, maybe we
- 51:40don't do it as much, but when we do it,
- 51:42man, is it great and special. And I
- 51:45>> I love nothing more than listening to my
- 51:47favorite podcasters. I love nothing like
- 51:50And it's in your pocket, right? It's
- 51:52everywhere you go. It's in the car.
- 51:54You're doing you're walking your dog,
- 51:56right? Like you're I'm in my closet
- 51:59getting dressed and like it's so
- 52:02portable.
- 52:03>> Media
- 52:04>> uh has become so portable. It's really
- 52:09And by the way, I think that's a healthy
- 52:10media, too. That's not like you on
- 52:12social media flipping. It's like you
- 52:14actually listening to other humans
- 52:17expressing their thoughts and their
- 52:19feelings. And I just love it so much.
- 52:22And I think we're in the earliest stages
- 52:24of it. So if if you are a creative human
- 52:28that feels like you haven't been valued
- 52:31in your life because we've only had one
- 52:33really narrow path to success. You know
- 52:37if you wanted to be perceived as being
- 52:39valuable in this world or successful in
- 52:41this world, you had to kind of follow
- 52:43this one path to success. And if you
- 52:46were a creative or you were just an
- 52:48interesting person that likes to make
- 52:50people people laugh, right? I if all of
- 52:53those skill sets I think are going to
- 52:55become meaningfully more valuable over
- 52:57the next decade, decade and a half
- 52:59because we're about to democratize the
- 53:01intelligence layer. So once you
- 53:03democratize the intelligence layer, all
- 53:06of the other aspects of life become
- 53:09meaningfully more valuable, right? So
- 53:13you know I love that. I love that so
- 53:16many people that have been ignored for
- 53:18so long are about to become unbelievably
- 53:21valuable and respected and precious in
- 53:25the new world. Uh because they they
- 53:28always should have been quite honestly.
- 53:30But our our economic model didn't allow
- 53:32them to be because there was really no
- 53:34way for them to monetize themselves.
- 53:37there was no way for them to like
- 53:39actually
- 53:41uh validate
- 53:44their specialness in the world, right?
- 53:47And now there is I I this is almost like
- 53:50a Tik Tok moment where you had for the
- 53:52first time we were democratizing people
- 53:54that were good at like dancing or good
- 53:57at like
- 53:58>> these five things on Tik Tok right now
- 54:02like truly anyone that's delivering any
- 54:06value to any human uh outside of just
- 54:10intelligence which we don't even we
- 54:11won't even appreciate much longer,
- 54:13right? Like that's all we've cared about
- 54:15for like all of our life. All we cared
- 54:17about is intelligence, right? Like what
- 54:18are you able doing? Now, anything you're
- 54:21capable of doing to improve life uh for
- 54:25any other human will become increasingly
- 54:27valuable. I I just absolutely love that.
- 54:31>> Perfect. Well, Chris, this has been so
- 54:33much fun. I love hearing your
- 54:34perspective. Uh any last thoughts uh for
- 54:37investors and traders out there on uh
- 54:41you know key principles that you've want
- 54:42them to walk away with today or just uh
- 54:45things to think about as they continue
- 54:46to invest over the next year, two years,
- 54:49three year time horizon.
- 54:51>> Yeah, absolutely. If you're an investor
- 54:53right now, leave your screen, leave the
- 54:55market. Start with one day. Put your
- 54:59stock app down for one day. Call one
- 55:02friend and say, "Hey, if we have a
- 55:04market crash and the market's crashing
- 55:05over 3%, call me." Okay? I don't want
- 55:09you to look at CNBC. I don't want you to
- 55:11look at your stocks for 24 hours, an
- 55:14entire business day, okay? Just don't
- 55:17think about it. I think you should do
- 55:19that probably minimum once a month. And
- 55:23you have to get out of this habit of
- 55:26living and dying by the success of your
- 55:29portfolio every day. Because if you do
- 55:31that, you will start to doubt yourself.
- 55:33You will see this volatility and you
- 55:36will think that other people see things
- 55:37that you don't see. You'll think that
- 55:39there's something that you're missing
- 55:41and you'll start making ridiculous
- 55:42trades because of that. There's just no
- 55:45reason to do that. Like I spend the
- 55:47majority of my life researching trades,
- 55:49but I'm not looking at the market hardly
- 55:51ever. Like I do look at the market
- 55:53generally every day, couple times a day.
- 55:56I don't let it concern me. Like I just
- 55:58don't care because it's like it I I I
- 56:01know now over the course of my career
- 56:02that the market goes up and down for
- 56:05insane reasons on a daily basis. If you
- 56:07really want to be part of that world and
- 56:09that's going to be your profession and
- 56:11you want to have an early death because
- 56:13that's what it's going to do to you,
- 56:14okay? Like like if you want to really
- 56:17have your head in this game because it
- 56:19never ends. The markets really never
- 56:21ends now, right? It's like 24 hours with
- 56:22all the things you can trade. It's
- 56:24weekends. If you really want that to be
- 56:27your life, fine. You You're probably
- 56:29young and you want to do it for a few
- 56:31years. I did it. At some point, you have
- 56:33to stop, guys. Okay? You just have to
- 56:36stop. Um you focus your time on
- 56:39research. live your life and stop paying
- 56:43so much attention to every freaking
- 56:46move, every article, every rumor, every
- 56:50bit of market gossip. Like, it's just it
- 56:53will destroy you. It will destroy your
- 56:55portfolio. It will destroy your ability
- 56:58to think independently because you'll be
- 57:01spending way too much time listening to
- 57:03others as opposed to like developing an
- 57:07independent mindset on what you believe
- 57:09is real and important, right? I'd rather
- 57:12have you spend that time
- 57:15in community forums where developers are
- 57:18chatting all day about what they're
- 57:19building in AI. That's valuable. Or if
- 57:22you want to be on the consumer side,
- 57:25which I am most of the time, read
- 57:27comments on whatever the trending videos
- 57:29are across Tik Tok of what people are
- 57:31buying, what they're wearing, what
- 57:32they're doing, what their time, what
- 57:33their interest level is, uh where
- 57:35they're traveling, what they're like.
- 57:37That's how you garner real
- 57:39differentiated intelligence that you
- 57:41could then connect dots back to sectors
- 57:44and companies in the market. And you're
- 57:46competing with 99 out of 100 investors
- 57:49are doing none of that. They're just
- 57:51literally getting on X every day and
- 57:54thinking about whatever they're told to
- 57:56think about that day. How are you going
- 57:59to develop an independent thought if you
- 58:01live inside of that world? You can't
- 58:03live inside that world. You must
- 58:05disconnect from the market. So, call a
- 58:08friend, say, "Hey, if the market moves
- 58:09more 3 or 4%, call me." Because you
- 58:12might want to know what the hell's going
- 58:13on, right? Uh and and that gives you the
- 58:16peace of mind, by the way. It gives you
- 58:18the peace of mind. Then do not look at
- 58:22any business news that day. Do not look
- 58:24at anything in the market. Do not look
- 58:25at your portfolio. Don't check anything.
- 58:29Just do anything other than that. I
- 58:32promise you, your mental health is going
- 58:34to go through the roof. You are going to
- 58:36be such a If you can do this once a
- 58:38week, that's gold, right? That that's
- 58:41lifechanging for an investor. And I say
- 58:44that because this is like a new thing
- 58:46the last few years where every investor
- 58:49is like glued to this 24 hours a day. I
- 58:52can't even imagine. Are you guys like at
- 58:54family dinner just talking to your kids
- 58:56and wife if you have one just about this
- 58:59because that's it seems like that's all
- 59:00you think about is this crap and like it
- 59:02never ends. So you just it's not
- 59:05healthy. It's not balanced. It's not
- 59:08helping your portfolio. And if I can
- 59:10give investors one piece of advice, I
- 59:12promise you, you will be a better
- 59:15investor if you can figure out how to
- 59:17regularly disconnect from the market
- 59:20minutia and noise. It's not helping you.
- 59:23>> Awesome. Well, Chris, uh, thank you so
- 59:25much for your time, for sharing your
- 59:27ideas and thoughts. Really appreciate
- 59:29it. Uh, where can people reach out to
- 59:31you or or Dor for you if if they want to
- 59:34connect?
- 59:34>> Yeah, man. I'm I'm on every channel. I'm
- 59:36I'm on X Chris Camilillo. I have a daily
- 59:38clips channel now on Instagram, Tik Tok,
- 59:41YouTube. It's daily Chris Camilillo.
- 59:44Obviously, we have the Dumb Money Live
- 59:45YouTube show that we do every try to do
- 59:47every week, but we don't always get one
- 59:49out every week. Um, I'm really active on
- 59:52X, right at Chris Camilillo. But
- 59:54anywhere, guys, like I'm I'm all over
- 59:56the place. So, you know, love love to
- 59:59continue uh the journey and I love that
- 1:00:03there's so many retail investors, but
- 1:00:04just chill out guys. Everything's going
- 1:00:06to be fine. Okay.
- 1:00:07>> [laughter]
- 1:00:08>> Everything's going to be fine. Uh, don't
- 1:00:10get caught up in the market on a daily
- 1:00:12basis. I promise you, you will live a
- 1:00:14happier life and your portfolio will
- 1:00:15probably do way way better.
- 1:00:17>> There we go. A great a great thought to
- 1:00:19end on. Chris, thanks again so much for
- 1:00:20your time. Uh, to everybody watching, I
- 1:00:22hope you guys enjoyed. Uh, leave a like
- 1:00:23down below if you did. Subscribe if
- 1:00:25you're new to the channel and we'll be
- 1:00:26right back. Cheers.
- 1:00:29[music]
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