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AI Super Cycle or Market Bubble? - How This Market Wizard Is Trading Now — Transcript

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  1. 0:00Are we in a bubble or are we in the
  2. 0:02biggest thing to ever happen to
  3. 0:03humankind? Right. And and you know,
  4. 0:05you're not nearly investing aggressive
  5. 0:06enough. I think we're still
  6. 0:07exceptionally early. I think when we
  7. 0:09when we think about AI generally, uh
  8. 0:11everything we've been experiencing and
  9. 0:13everything we are set to experience the
  10. 0:16next couple of years all kind of fall in
  11. 0:18the first stages of the AI super cycle.
  12. 0:21We're going to see a widening of the
  13. 0:23companies who are benefiting from
  14. 0:25artificial intelligence over the next
  15. 0:27few years. So rather than it be 15 or 20
  16. 0:29names, I think we'll actually see
  17. 0:31hundreds of companies, maybe thousands
  18. 0:33of companies that are publicly listed
  19. 0:35that will meaningfully benefit. I think
  20. 0:37the most interesting thing right now
  21. 0:38happening in AI that no one is talking
  22. 0:40about is that we have millions to tens
  23. 0:42of millions of humans around the world
  24. 0:44that are all working 30% to 200% harder
  25. 0:49than they ever have. Biggest story in AI
  26. 0:51right now is what are these people
  27. 0:53building? What is the world going to
  28. 0:55look like in 5 years when these 20
  29. 0:58million people that are sleeping 3 hours
  30. 1:00a night right now? Because they're
  31. 1:01building with frontier models in their
  32. 1:04bedroom. They're solving problems. We're
  33. 1:06about to democratize the intelligence
  34. 1:09layer. So once you democratize the
  35. 1:11intelligence layer, all of the other
  36. 1:13aspects of life become meaningfully more
  37. 1:16valuable. Right? I don't know how you
  38. 1:18would be in any part of the investment
  39. 1:21sector and not heavily engage with AI to
  40. 1:24do nothing other than check yourself and
  41. 1:27to aid in your research and to aid in
  42. 1:29your thinking and to kind of play
  43. 1:31devil's advocate on everything that you
  44. 1:32do.
  45. 1:33>> Hey everyone, welcome back to another
  46. 1:35episode. As always, we bring top
  47. 1:36traders, US investing champions, and
  48. 1:38market wizards here onto the show to
  49. 1:40share their journeys, their methods,
  50. 1:42their strategies, and the key principles
  51. 1:43that they want to pass on to you guys to
  52. 1:45save you time, save you money, and
  53. 1:47improve your trading performance. And if
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  57. 1:56two resources. The first is a breakdown
  58. 1:59of today's interview with key quotes,
  59. 2:01key takeaways, and key concepts that you
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  79. 2:43[music]
  80. 2:45Okay, welcome back everybody. Uh joining
  81. 2:48us next is Chris Millow, individual
  82. 2:50investor and market wizard who is known
  83. 2:52for social arbitrage strategy. He's the
  84. 2:54host of the dumb money contest uh
  85. 2:56podcast and has been one of the leading
  86. 2:58voices of the AI theme and how investors
  87. 3:01can ride the waves. So Chris, first and
  88. 3:03foremost, thank you so much for taking
  89. 3:04the time. Pleasure to have you here,
  90. 3:07>> dude. Happy to be here as always for
  91. 3:09retail investors any day.
  92. 3:11>> Yeah, awesome. Um we've got a lot to
  93. 3:13touch on today. I think we want to focus
  94. 3:15a lot on where we are within the AI
  95. 3:17waves, uh the skepticism around what's
  96. 3:20going on right now, um and kind of what
  97. 3:22that next layer of the the AI wave and
  98. 3:25that theme can be. So, uh to start
  99. 3:28things off, u maybe give us some
  100. 3:29context. Where do you think we are
  101. 3:31currently within the AI theme in terms
  102. 3:34of the waves that you've seen? You've
  103. 3:35talked about that a bunch of different
  104. 3:37podcasts. Where do you think we are
  105. 3:38right now?
  106. 3:40>> I think we're still exceptionally early.
  107. 3:42I think when we when we think about AI
  108. 3:44generally uh everything we've been
  109. 3:46experiencing and everything we are set
  110. 3:49to experience the next couple of years
  111. 3:51all kind of fall in the first stages of
  112. 3:54the AI super cycle which is essentially
  113. 3:58the discovery of intelligence right uh
  114. 4:01which is where we were 3 years ago with
  115. 4:04that chat GPT moment and we were all
  116. 4:07kind of racing as investors to figure
  117. 4:09out the best way to trade and take
  118. 4:12advantage of this moment in time. uh we
  119. 4:15quickly transitioned into the AI
  120. 4:19infrastructure
  121. 4:21uh kind of wave which was probably the
  122. 4:23biggest thing that we've experienced in
  123. 4:26a very long time where we have 15 to 20
  124. 4:28names uh across the chip uh and cloud
  125. 4:32computing and energy
  126. 4:34>> energy y
  127. 4:35>> you know I infrastructure
  128. 4:38uh that have quite honestly captured the
  129. 4:42vast majority of market gains over the
  130. 4:44past 18 months, right? So, if you look
  131. 4:46over the past 12 to 18 months, there are
  132. 4:48very small number of names that have
  133. 4:49captured the bulk of that market
  134. 4:52movement. And I think that has led us to
  135. 4:55a place where investors are confused. Uh
  136. 4:59it it feels like we're in a bubble
  137. 5:00sometimes. It nothing seems to make
  138. 5:03sense. Uh the market moves erratically
  139. 5:06on a daily and weekly basis. And I
  140. 5:09cannot recall a time in my life where
  141. 5:14over a period of months and years
  142. 5:17investors have had so much confusion. Uh
  143. 5:21and there's been so much conflict in
  144. 5:24terms of where we are, where we're
  145. 5:26headed, what's real, uh what's not. Are
  146. 5:30we in a bubble? Are we not? Are we in a
  147. 5:33bubble or are we in the biggest thing to
  148. 5:35ever happen to humankind? Right. and and
  149. 5:38we're not, you know, you're not nearly
  150. 5:40investing aggressive enough.
  151. 5:42>> You know, I've spoken about this
  152. 5:43recently. I think
  153. 5:44>> we are on the precipice in the next few
  154. 5:47months, the next couple of years of
  155. 5:49entering kind of the third wave of the
  156. 5:52AI super cycle, which is still early.
  157. 5:54This is all the first piece of it which
  158. 5:56is the AI efficiency wave which is where
  159. 6:00companies actually start to extract
  160. 6:03meaningful value out of artificial
  161. 6:05intelligence in terms of lifts in
  162. 6:08productivity.
  163. 6:10uh you know massive increases in
  164. 6:12efficiency
  165. 6:14uh the ability to either operate asis at
  166. 6:18a much lower cost basis or where I think
  167. 6:20we're headed the ability to meaningfully
  168. 6:23grow uh without having to add
  169. 6:27significant expense and headcount and we
  170. 6:31are going to see economies expand but
  171. 6:33and expand in such a way where companies
  172. 6:36are able to kind of capt capture
  173. 6:40uh more meaningful markets without the
  174. 6:43traditional capex that they would have
  175. 6:46to spend to get there. And my thought is
  176. 6:49that we're going to see a widening of
  177. 6:51the companies who are benefiting from
  178. 6:54artificial intelligence over the next
  179. 6:56few years. So rather than it be 15 or 20
  180. 6:58names, I think we'll actually see
  181. 7:00hundreds of companies that will maybe
  182. 7:02thousands of companies that are publicly
  183. 7:04listed that will meaningfully benefit.
  184. 7:07And if you're an investor and you're
  185. 7:09just trying to figure out generally um
  186. 7:12where does the market at large go over
  187. 7:14the next 3 to 5 years, I think the
  188. 7:16optimistic take would be that the AI
  189. 7:19efficiency wave just tends to lift
  190. 7:23economies
  191. 7:24uh in a macro sense in terms of
  192. 7:28companies being able to grow and grow uh
  193. 7:31with a lower cost basis. Now that
  194. 7:33doesn't necessarily mean that companies
  195. 7:36are laying off you know employees at
  196. 7:40scale across every industry sector. I
  197. 7:43think there will be some industry
  198. 7:44sectors where you generally start to see
  199. 7:45a tightening uh of labor because they
  200. 7:48want to operate more efficiently and
  201. 7:50maybe they don't have as clear of a
  202. 7:53roadmap for how to apply AI to chase
  203. 7:56growth that's sitting in front of them
  204. 7:59and that will be damaging uh for some
  205. 8:02employees across some sectors. But I
  206. 8:04think we will see a lot more of
  207. 8:07companies realizing, wow, an employee
  208. 8:09can do 3x the work, 5x the work in some
  209. 8:12cases,
  210. 8:12>> solve more problems, do more work on
  211. 8:15projects. Yeah.
  212. 8:16>> You know, solving problems that that
  213. 8:18weren't really
  214. 8:20uh economically feasible to solve
  215. 8:23before, right?
  216. 8:25>> And I think companies see that and they
  217. 8:28think, let's chase those 10 initiatives.
  218. 8:31Let's chase those five initiatives that
  219. 8:33we didn't think were economically
  220. 8:36feasible but today are economically
  221. 8:37feasible and let's do that with our
  222. 8:40existing employee base or potentially
  223. 8:43tweaking our employee base or what I
  224. 8:45think is actually more likely although
  225. 8:47not a lot of people are talking about
  226. 8:48this expanding our employee base
  227. 8:52somewhat uh to chase those opportunities
  228. 8:54because we we kind of see where we can
  229. 8:57hit our our margins and expand our
  230. 8:59margins right uh in this new world where
  231. 9:01the where the intelligence layer I is
  232. 9:05maybe not immediately less expensive but
  233. 9:07certainly you have an outlook 3 to 5
  234. 9:09years where where it will get
  235. 9:10meaningfully less expensive than the
  236. 9:12labor count would have cost you
  237. 9:14historically. So I think if you're an
  238. 9:16optimist and I am that is how I see this
  239. 9:20unfolding. Some companies will benefit
  240. 9:22more than others. It it's hard to
  241. 9:25envision a scenario where where where
  242. 9:27that doesn't play out. I think the big
  243. 9:29question is how long does it take to
  244. 9:32play out and how many bumps in the road
  245. 9:35do we have you know between now and when
  246. 9:39this kind of massive amount of
  247. 9:41productivity and massive amount of high
  248. 9:43efficiency growth hits macro markets you
  249. 9:46know will there be a multi-year period
  250. 9:49where companies just tend to be too
  251. 9:52conservative and they pull back and
  252. 9:55there's an employment issue or an
  253. 9:57unemployment issue
  254. 9:59that potentially leads to a recession.
  255. 10:01That's certainly in the cards. And I
  256. 10:02don't think anybody can predict with
  257. 10:04accuracy whether or not we're going to
  258. 10:06experience that and and if so, how big
  259. 10:08it will be, how long it will last. I
  260. 10:11have confidence in where we'll
  261. 10:12ultimately end up, right? And and so
  262. 10:14what I have less confidence in is the
  263. 10:17timeline and exactly how we get there.
  264. 10:20And you know, if I'm an investor right
  265. 10:22now, and I've been saying this, I'd be
  266. 10:24really careful when it comes to leverage
  267. 10:26right now. And I'm a big leverage guys,
  268. 10:28you know, so I love leverage. Uh but I
  269. 10:31would just be careful in how you apply
  270. 10:34that leverage over what timelines and
  271. 10:37trying to,
  272. 10:39you know,
  273. 10:41really wrap your head around a timeline
  274. 10:44for what's going to happen in the
  275. 10:45market. I think a lot of us are fooling
  276. 10:48ourselves that we can do that in in this
  277. 10:51type of volatile market because it it it
  278. 10:53you might be right and it really doesn't
  279. 10:56matter. uh because I think perception
  280. 10:58rules right now and any crack in the
  281. 11:02news flow that is a negative any thesis
  282. 11:05that comes out from anyone with any
  283. 11:08degree of respect even if they don't
  284. 11:10really deserve that respect right uh if
  285. 11:13they have attention if they get eyeballs
  286. 11:16that's enough to shake the market
  287. 11:19temporarily and and we've seen that time
  288. 11:21and time again like we almost know we
  289. 11:24don't know what's going to take down
  290. 11:25this AI trade
  291. 11:27the next 90 days. We just know
  292. 11:28something's going to take it down. That
  293. 11:30that's almost a guarantee at this point,
  294. 11:32right? Like I don't know what it is, but
  295. 11:34it's going you better be ready for it
  296. 11:35because something is going to take down
  297. 11:37the AI trade temporarily about every 30
  298. 11:40to 90 days.
  299. 11:41>> We've had the tariffs Iran all all this
  300. 11:44stuff has come in and caused those
  301. 11:45corrections. Yeah. along the way.
  302. 11:48>> And the reason for that is we're dealing
  303. 11:49with subject matter that most investors
  304. 11:52just simply do not understand whether
  305. 11:55they're institutional investors and
  306. 11:57we've seen this is just really
  307. 11:58astonishing. I've never seen uh the gap
  308. 12:03uh tighten so much between institutional
  309. 12:06investors, institutional research and
  310. 12:09retail investors with retail research,
  311. 12:11right? And in some ways, retail
  312. 12:15investors, some some portion of them are
  313. 12:18getting meaningfully smarter. I would
  314. 12:20say most retail investors because we
  315. 12:22just have so many of them in the market
  316. 12:24right now are are emotional because
  317. 12:27they're new, relatively new. They
  318. 12:29haven't seen things like this before.
  319. 12:32Uh, and they tend to get shaken out
  320. 12:35pretty quick. Uh, because they're
  321. 12:37they're generally levered more than they
  322. 12:39ever have been. And when you're a retail
  323. 12:41investor and you're levered, uh, you're
  324. 12:44you're quick to pull the trigger when
  325. 12:46when things turn the other way. So
  326. 12:49meanwhile, institutional investors are
  327. 12:51just simply acting more like retail
  328. 12:52investors than I've ever seen them
  329. 12:54before. They are chasing attention. They
  330. 12:58are chasing hype and perception. They're
  331. 13:01trying to get in front of retail
  332. 13:03investors of what retail investors are
  333. 13:04going to do next. uh as opposed to
  334. 13:08having kind of their own independent
  335. 13:12uh moreminded
  336. 13:13thesis and and they're unwilling to kind
  337. 13:17of take the short-term risk to be wrong
  338. 13:19in the short term because of market
  339. 13:21fluctuations and be right in the long
  340. 13:23term and historically that's where your
  341. 13:26institutional funds you've really
  342. 13:27counted on them to be you know smart in
  343. 13:31that way and not get shaken out. I think
  344. 13:32with the algo trading uh with hedging
  345. 13:36with everything everyone is trying to
  346. 13:38make money every day in the market every
  347. 13:41week and every month and that is a
  348. 13:44dangerous place to be. It it really is a
  349. 13:47dangerous place to be where you feel
  350. 13:48that you need to be up every week every
  351. 13:51month. Um it's a very difficult thing to
  352. 13:55pull off. I've never known an investor
  353. 13:56to pull that off meaningfully over the
  354. 13:59long term. Uh, and it's just it puts you
  355. 14:03in a position to make bad decisions, I
  356. 14:06think. Right.
  357. 14:07>> Hey everyone, just want to jump in here
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  399. 15:27That's dv.com/mpodcast.
  400. 15:30And with that, let's get back to the
  401. 15:31interview.
  402. 15:33I want to call back to something you
  403. 15:34said, you know, at the very beginning,
  404. 15:36you know, looking at this current wave,
  405. 15:38the infrastructure wave. Um, and I know
  406. 15:41you've been trading this, you know, with
  407. 15:43the semiconductor memory names. uh be I
  408. 15:46know has been a huge uh name for you
  409. 15:48riding this infrastructure wave. Um how
  410. 15:51close is that to cresting or do you
  411. 15:53think it has more legs the kind of
  412. 15:55infrastructure segment of this AI theme?
  413. 15:58I don't know where do you think we are
  414. 15:59with still this the second wave here?
  415. 16:04>> I think infrastructure has a ways to go.
  416. 16:07Um, I think if you look at how we
  417. 16:10believe AI will play out over the next
  418. 16:13three to five years,
  419. 16:16we are going to continue to thirst for
  420. 16:18more. Um, anytime
  421. 16:21we achieve more in terms of what the
  422. 16:24models can do on the frontier of these
  423. 16:27models or what the compute can do, I
  424. 16:30think what we'll see is not, oh great,
  425. 16:33we could do more with less now. It's
  426. 16:35more of like, wow,
  427. 16:38what can we possibly do now with this
  428. 16:40intelligence? And I think that will
  429. 16:42continue to kind of loop back and drive
  430. 16:45more thirst for more compute for more
  431. 16:49solutions to more problems uh to create
  432. 16:52new industries.
  433. 16:55Listen, this is a bit of an unknown
  434. 16:57right now. Now, I know we have we have
  435. 16:59uh Jeb's paradox, which is kind of like
  436. 17:00the thesis behind a lot of what I'm
  437. 17:02saying, and we've seen that kind of
  438. 17:04happen over and over again, but not to
  439. 17:07this degree. Um, not happening this
  440. 17:10fast. So, I think over the long term, I
  441. 17:15sit on the side that says no matter how
  442. 17:19much infrastructure we build out,
  443. 17:22I think I would place my bet on us being
  444. 17:26constrained. uh over the next few years.
  445. 17:30Uh I I think there's still going to be a
  446. 17:32bottleneck because anytime we're able to
  447. 17:35clear that bottleneck in some way,
  448. 17:39I think new industries will pop up to
  449. 17:42create new bottlenecks because
  450. 17:44intelligence uh as an industry is just
  451. 17:48too broad. It touches every facet of
  452. 17:51life. It touches every problem.
  453. 17:55uh as soon as you know I'll challenge
  454. 17:58you to think let's just talk about
  455. 18:00advertising okay this is something we
  456. 18:01all understand
  457. 18:03I mean advertising
  458. 18:05has obviously evolved over the past 70
  459. 18:09years and at the same time it really
  460. 18:13hasn't changed all that much right uh
  461. 18:16but when we look at advertising and we
  462. 18:18look at new technology and how that's
  463. 18:21impacted advertising right whether the
  464. 18:23it was the birth of radio or television,
  465. 18:28the internet, when we actually had
  466. 18:30personalization for the first time, uh,
  467. 18:33personalization was probably one of the
  468. 18:36biggest game changers we've ever seen,
  469. 18:38targeting, the whole concept of like
  470. 18:40individual targeting for advertising
  471. 18:42through digital media. uh when we're
  472. 18:44able to take those ads and actually take
  473. 18:46them away from you know something like
  474. 18:50this that you're in front of for some
  475. 18:53part of the day and and put it on this
  476. 18:56>> which was that Facebook moment right
  477. 18:58remember that back in the 2000s
  478. 19:00>> and all of a sudden that advertising
  479. 19:03became not only personalized but became
  480. 19:06mobile and was essentially with you
  481. 19:08every minute of the faking day. That is
  482. 19:11what created some of the biggest
  483. 19:13companies in the world like Meta. All
  484. 19:14right, Google as well obviously, right?
  485. 19:17Google and Meta. And now we think about
  486. 19:21what could happen with advertising, just
  487. 19:24advertising alone, right? Um when AI
  488. 19:27actually knows everything about you
  489. 19:29because you entrust the AI, it's so
  490. 19:31powerful that intelligence layer that
  491. 19:33you need its assistance for every facet
  492. 19:35of your life. It knows what you're
  493. 19:37doing. It knows what you react to. uh it
  494. 19:40knows what you're, you know, what you
  495. 19:42need help with. Uh when you combine that
  496. 19:45with the ability to deliver highly
  497. 19:48engaging, personalized, immersive
  498. 19:51advertising that could be two-way
  499. 19:53engagement advertising. Our brains can't
  500. 19:55fully comprehend what the future of ads
  501. 19:58look like. And so, you know, I know
  502. 19:59there's a lot of meta investors out
  503. 20:01there. They're like, "Whoa, God, what's
  504. 20:03happening to Meta? It's it's getting
  505. 20:04destroyed." And I'm I'm a guy that
  506. 20:06historically I have not really been
  507. 20:08invested in Meta uh for a while now, but
  508. 20:11I think about I think about the um the
  509. 20:15long case for Meta and if we kind of
  510. 20:19take this next leap fully immersive,
  511. 20:22fully customizable advertising like when
  512. 20:25imagine going to an ad and having that
  513. 20:28video uh render itself in real time for
  514. 20:32you with actors or with verbiage that it
  515. 20:36knows well you will personally relate to
  516. 20:40because you like to see this type of
  517. 20:42individual demo a product. You like to
  518. 20:45see it demoed in this way and it could
  519. 20:47render fully immersive ads just for you.
  520. 20:50Now we we're far away from that because
  521. 20:52the cost of that compute would be
  522. 20:54absolutely insane today. All right, but
  523. 20:57imagine a scenario where the cost of
  524. 21:00compute comes down dramatically.
  525. 21:04That is an area we're going to go to.
  526. 21:06So, as soon as the compute gets cheap
  527. 21:07enough, there are layers and layers of
  528. 21:11problems and opportunities that will
  529. 21:13open up to cheaper compute to basically
  530. 21:16fill that compute and drive the cost of
  531. 21:18that compute to a level to to where it's
  532. 21:22balanced again. Right? And so when when
  533. 21:24if you have an open mind and you don't
  534. 21:27try to frame AI based purely on a
  535. 21:32historical mindset of what we experience
  536. 21:33in our life because nothing is
  537. 21:36accelerating. We've never seen anything
  538. 21:37accelerate like we've seen AI
  539. 21:39accelerate, right? If you're able to
  540. 21:41reframe that in a go go go off do some
  541. 21:44meditation for 5 days and now think
  542. 21:46about the future with with an
  543. 21:48intelligence layer and think about how
  544. 21:50it changes the way we live, how we
  545. 21:52think, how we produce products, how we
  546. 21:55engage with humans and industry,
  547. 21:58you get into this infinite loop that is
  548. 22:01not going to last for a couple years,
  549. 22:04but I think should last for many, many,
  550. 22:06many years until we're able to find an
  551. 22:09absolute balance.
  552. 22:10and and and we're able to kind of like
  553. 22:12shake out the supply demand.
  554. 22:15It's really exciting if you think about
  555. 22:17it. Uh because when you experience that
  556. 22:20type of advertising, everyone's going to
  557. 22:22want to deliver that to you. Every
  558. 22:24bleeding edge product and company in the
  559. 22:26world is going to want to engage with
  560. 22:28you in a way that converts 2x higher, 4x
  561. 22:32higher, 5x higher. And you know, even if
  562. 22:36the compute is more expensive, it will
  563. 22:39actually kind of hit an ROI, right?
  564. 22:43>> So yeah, if you're bullish, that's a
  565. 22:45reason to potentially be massively
  566. 22:47bullish on a company like Meta. You
  567. 22:50know, I'm an Amazon fan, and that also
  568. 22:53relates to Amazon, who is the third
  569. 22:55largest digital advertising company on
  570. 22:58Earth. And if you could just envision
  571. 23:00every single ad on Amazon, right, being
  572. 23:02immersive, uh, being generated in real
  573. 23:05time, you know, they're there to play as
  574. 23:09well. But this is just one mod
  575. 23:10advertising. You could basically take
  576. 23:12that and and and replicate that
  577. 23:15narrative across almost every single
  578. 23:18industry sector on Earth in a different
  579. 23:20way. And you could redefine what an
  580. 23:23industry looks like, how that industry
  581. 23:26interacts with its customer base. I
  582. 23:29mean, mental health for example, we all
  583. 23:31so many of us are already using, you
  584. 23:33know, LLMs for mental health. Um but I
  585. 23:38think when we you know utilize them for
  586. 23:40mental health in a fully vertically
  587. 23:43integrated way right to where it it's
  588. 23:46not so rogue that okay you you might
  589. 23:49have a psychologist and but you're also
  590. 23:52using chat GPT right and then you're
  591. 23:54still you're going to for your
  592. 23:57prescriptions and you're going to Amazon
  593. 23:59right once you kind of imagine once you
  594. 24:01vertically integrate all of that
  595. 24:03together and you actually have the
  596. 24:06ability to now, you know, this sounds
  597. 24:08this sounds like uh a horrible thing to
  598. 24:11say, but productize mental health,
  599. 24:14right? Like like for for pharmaceutical
  600. 24:17companies and for the healthcare
  601. 24:19industry and for insurance, right?
  602. 24:23I just think it's hard to wrap our head
  603. 24:25around how far this is going to go. And
  604. 24:27again, you could make this case for
  605. 24:29every single industry sector. Oh, I
  606. 24:33think the most I think the most
  607. 24:35interesting thing right now happening in
  608. 24:36AI that no one is talking about
  609. 24:39is that we have millions to tens of
  610. 24:42millions of humans around the world that
  611. 24:44are all working 30% to 200% harder than
  612. 24:50they ever have. Uh if you dig deep and
  613. 24:53you actually start to
  614. 24:56uh ingest conversational data of
  615. 25:00developers and you see what has been
  616. 25:02going on the last 6 to9 months
  617. 25:05specifically, you will realize that
  618. 25:08developers are actually spending more
  619. 25:12time than they ever have building.
  620. 25:14Whether they're building for their
  621. 25:16company, building for their company and
  622. 25:18for themselves on the side, these
  623. 25:20developers are not sleeping because they
  624. 25:22know the moment we're in. They're able
  625. 25:24to do two to 10x more than they ever
  626. 25:26have right before. Even people that are
  627. 25:29not traditional coders and developers
  628. 25:31are able to get in on this game and
  629. 25:33actually express what's in their head uh
  630. 25:37and actually, you know, build, right?
  631. 25:40Build themselves.
  632. 25:41>> That prototype cycle is just so much
  633. 25:43faster now. Anybody who's got an idea at
  634. 25:45a company can see it through throughout
  635. 25:48to basically production ready what
  636. 25:50whatever that idea is. So it opens the
  637. 25:52door for people who had the expertise
  638. 25:54the the knowhow uh to actually express
  639. 25:58and and publish it. Thanks.
  640. 26:00>> The number the
  641. 26:02the incidence of of entrepreneurial
  642. 26:06minds in the world has not changed. We
  643. 26:08have the same number of entrepreneurial
  644. 26:11people today that we had five years ago.
  645. 26:14Those people didn't go away. And what
  646. 26:18nobody understands because listen, the
  647. 26:21average person is not a builder and
  648. 26:23entrepreneur, right? I don't know what
  649. 26:25the percentage is whether it's single
  650. 26:27digits or low double digits of humanity.
  651. 26:31Uh these people are not going to go
  652. 26:34away. So when you give them these tool
  653. 26:36sets, they are going to build and build
  654. 26:39like you wouldn't even believe. Usually
  655. 26:42these people hit so much friction and
  656. 26:44they're so frustrated that they go on
  657. 26:46with their day jobs and they don't build
  658. 26:48because they can't build because there's
  659. 26:50too much friction. There's too many
  660. 26:52barriers to entry as it relates to
  661. 26:54capital raising, as it relates to
  662. 26:56building out teams, as it relates to
  663. 26:58risk because they have families. They
  664. 27:00have commitments. But now every
  665. 27:02entrepreneur in the world, every
  666. 27:04entrepreneurial mind, every builder in
  667. 27:06the world has been given this gift to
  668. 27:09build whatever they want to build and
  669. 27:11they're just getting started. So the
  670. 27:14biggest story in AI right now is what
  671. 27:17are these people building? What is the
  672. 27:19world going to look like in 5 years when
  673. 27:22these 20 million people that are
  674. 27:24sleeping three hours a night right now
  675. 27:26because they're building with frontier
  676. 27:28models in their bedroom? They're solving
  677. 27:31problems. They're basically expressing
  678. 27:33what's been in their head for three or
  679. 27:35four years that they couldn't build. And
  680. 27:36now they're actually able to take that
  681. 27:38idea to market to change the world. What
  682. 27:41will the world look like because of
  683. 27:43that? How many new companies will we
  684. 27:45have birth over the next 3 to 5 years?
  685. 27:49How many new industry sectors will
  686. 27:51emerge over the next few years? Because
  687. 27:54we have tens of millions of people that
  688. 27:57cannot stop building because and they
  689. 28:00never will stop. They never will stop.
  690. 28:02And all this BS about, hey, we're going
  691. 28:05to have this intelligence is free, so
  692. 28:07none of us are going to do any work.
  693. 28:09That's not how we work as humans.
  694. 28:11>> We're wired to
  695. 28:12>> Yeah. When you Some of us will some of
  696. 28:16us are gonna slack and just chill and
  697. 28:19Yeah. are are gonna ride the wave.
  698. 28:23of of maybe not having to work as hard
  699. 28:26if we enter any type of age of abundance
  700. 28:28in the next 25 to 30 years and you're
  701. 28:31you know you're able to basically float
  702. 28:34that's fine there will those people have
  703. 28:36always existed it's just a different
  704. 28:38brain chemistry right but the builders
  705. 28:40are going to build and god I cannot even
  706. 28:42imagine what's coming out in the next
  707. 28:44five years six years so yeah when we
  708. 28:46talk about where we are in this kind of
  709. 28:51a AI cycle
  710. 28:53I'm not even sure if we've gotten
  711. 28:55started yet. Like I'm not even sure if
  712. 28:57we've really seen the start of it yet
  713. 28:59because we're looking at existing
  714. 29:01companies trying to apply AI to solve
  715. 29:04some additional problems to cut cost.
  716. 29:07Right? What we're not talking about are
  717. 29:10the millions to tens of millions of
  718. 29:13entrepreneurial people around the world
  719. 29:15that are in the earliest stages of
  720. 29:17building the next great thing. That's
  721. 29:19happening, guys. That's happening. And
  722. 29:21that's the biggest story. That is the
  723. 29:23number one story right now in the world
  724. 29:26that no one's talking about. How much
  725. 29:28compute are they going to need, right?
  726. 29:30Like it it's very exciting is all I'm
  727. 29:34saying and and no one's talking about
  728. 29:35it. Yeah. What do you think are do you
  729. 29:39have kind of a profile in your head of
  730. 29:42the companies that will benefit most
  731. 29:44from the AI efficiency layer? So like um
  732. 29:47what what are the characteristics of a
  733. 29:49company that you think will be able to
  734. 29:52harness AI to grow faster, cut cost,
  735. 29:57improve margins, um and hopefully you
  736. 30:00improve their stock price over time as
  737. 30:02as a result.
  738. 30:03>> So there's a few different ways to think
  739. 30:05about this. It's not just one way to
  740. 30:08take advantage of the AI efficiency
  741. 30:10wave. You're going to have incumbent
  742. 30:12companies that are really focused on
  743. 30:15numbers, right? They haven't really
  744. 30:17grown all that much in the last 10 years
  745. 30:20and they're really looking about how can
  746. 30:22we become more efficient, right? So,
  747. 30:25companies that have a very high cost
  748. 30:26structure, any company that has a high
  749. 30:30employee count of white collar employees
  750. 30:34that tend to do a lot of physical,
  751. 30:37excuse me, a lot a lot of repetitive
  752. 30:38task. So companies that have a
  753. 30:41tremendous amount of customer service,
  754. 30:44customer, you know, companies that have
  755. 30:46just large numbers of repetitive white
  756. 30:49collar workers, a lot of those companies
  757. 30:52are simply going to try to chase
  758. 30:55margins. They're trying to reduce costs
  759. 30:58because it's a really easy thing to
  760. 31:01chase once you can figure this out. And
  761. 31:03I think that happens over the next few
  762. 31:04years. But there are other companies
  763. 31:06that are going to look at this
  764. 31:07differently. they're going to be more
  765. 31:09aggressive. They're gonna say, "Hey, we
  766. 31:10we can cut cost or we can repurpose
  767. 31:14those employees and maybe add to our
  768. 31:16employee count to start chasing bigger
  769. 31:18initiatives to start chasing maybe even
  770. 31:21some a larger number of smaller
  771. 31:23initiatives that now make financial
  772. 31:25sense for us." I do think that there
  773. 31:29will be bumps along the road when the
  774. 31:31market sees that and they go, "Wait a
  775. 31:33second. You're spending more money now,
  776. 31:35not less. you're keeping your employees
  777. 31:38and you're spending money on compute,
  778. 31:40you're now less profitable. So, we're
  779. 31:42going to destroy your stock. And that is
  780. 31:46a risky proposition for a CEO to take.
  781. 31:49It's totally different, but similar to
  782. 31:52what you've seen with mega cap tech
  783. 31:55going
  784. 31:56>> all in on capex, spending 120 billion,
  785. 31:59200 billion on capex,
  786. 32:00>> raising money even. Yeah. to borrowing
  787. 32:03debt to simply build out infrastructure
  788. 32:06for what they see is right in front of
  789. 32:07their face as an opportunity. Right? So
  790. 32:10that think about this that opportunity
  791. 32:13is right in front of the face of Meta,
  792. 32:16of Google, of Amazon, of Microsoft. And
  793. 32:20these companies are the biggest
  794. 32:22companies in the world that historically
  795. 32:25have done a relatively good job. Not all
  796. 32:27of them, not all the time. Meta's made
  797. 32:29some mistakes with capex, some big ones.
  798. 32:31but but generally have made responsible
  799. 32:34decisions on capex over time
  800. 32:38and the market's like we don't care, we
  801. 32:41don't like it, it's too risky, we're
  802. 32:43going to punish you. So what happens
  803. 32:45when you have hundreds of thousands of
  804. 32:47smaller companies that are doing more
  805. 32:50speculative things right with capex in
  806. 32:54terms of not laying off employees and
  807. 32:57spending a lot of money on compute
  808. 32:59temporarily their margins get hit but
  809. 33:01they're like wait a second in our
  810. 33:03industry sector we're all chasing these
  811. 33:05things and if we can get there first
  812. 33:09this is the g the biggest game changer
  813. 33:11ever for our company so I think we'll
  814. 33:13see a lot of volatility. I don't think
  815. 33:16this is going to be like an up and to
  816. 33:18the right curve in terms of valuations
  817. 33:21and market appreciation. I I think it'll
  818. 33:24be a roller coaster. I think a lot of
  819. 33:25investors are going to freak out over
  820. 33:28this the same way they freaked out over
  821. 33:30capex with big tech. And now is the time
  822. 33:34to really gain a sense of where your
  823. 33:35conviction lies. How convicted are you
  824. 33:39in AI? And how convicted are you in the
  825. 33:43team of the companies you follow to
  826. 33:46actually make the correct decisions and
  827. 33:48not simply spend on compute because
  828. 33:51everyone else is, but actually make
  829. 33:53these investments because they clearly
  830. 33:55see opportunity that AI can solve for
  831. 33:58them. So, this is a great time to be a
  832. 34:02great investor that actually does their
  833. 34:05homework and is not just chasing the
  834. 34:07next hot thing, but actually has a high
  835. 34:10degree of conviction in the various
  836. 34:13narratives of these sectors and these
  837. 34:15companies because there will be amazing
  838. 34:17opportunities
  839. 34:19to load up in these companies at prices
  840. 34:22that are already low for some of these
  841. 34:25companies and maybe getting a lot lower,
  842. 34:27right? But the only people with the
  843. 34:31balls to do that are those that did
  844. 34:33their homework and really have
  845. 34:34conviction. Okay? So like
  846. 34:38this is why it's such a cool time to be
  847. 34:39an investor because there's like
  848. 34:41literally investors sitting on both
  849. 34:43sides of every trade. You could look at
  850. 34:45every SAS company and you half the
  851. 34:48investor base is like this is getting
  852. 34:50destroyed by frontier models. this is
  853. 34:53going to become a feature of a frontier
  854. 34:56model as opposed to its own company. And
  855. 34:59then you have other investors that are
  856. 35:00like theoretically in time maybe, but
  857. 35:05not in the next 10 to 15 years. This
  858. 35:07company is going to cash flow. They have
  859. 35:11a sticky customer base. They might not
  860. 35:14be able to grow as quickly, right, as
  861. 35:16they did before, but they're still going
  862. 35:18to grow. uh they're also going to
  863. 35:21simultaneously cut their cost over time
  864. 35:24and they're going to cash flow and at
  865. 35:26these stock values this is an incredible
  866. 35:29investment. What which side of that do
  867. 35:31you sit on? I mean it it's an it's a
  868. 35:33it's a good argument to have and it's an
  869. 35:36argument that probably you know the
  870. 35:39winner is different for every company
  871. 35:41and every sector. So I don't I'm not one
  872. 35:43of these guys where I'm like uniformly
  873. 35:44SAS is undervalued
  874. 35:46>> or uniformly SAS is getting destroyed.
  875. 35:50>> I think there will be companies that do
  876. 35:51better and companies that do worse and
  877. 35:54like I haven't put the homework in on
  878. 35:57service now. I haven't put the homework
  879. 35:59in on Salesforce and a lot of these
  880. 36:02other companies to have tremendous
  881. 36:04conviction in which ones will ultimately
  882. 36:06be the relative winners and the relative
  883. 36:10losers. So, I think as an investor, you
  884. 36:12need to be really careful before you
  885. 36:14just take an opinion on something
  886. 36:16without doing the homework because I
  887. 36:18don't see a lot of investors doing a lot
  888. 36:20of homework these days. They're so
  889. 36:23distracted, caught up by noise. They
  890. 36:25want to have a position. They want to
  891. 36:27believe in some thesis. They do a tiny
  892. 36:30bit of work. They maybe watch someone
  893. 36:32else talking about it, read a couple
  894. 36:33articles, and then they act as if they
  895. 36:35have a lot of conviction in something,
  896. 36:36which is just themselves fooling
  897. 36:39themselves, quite honestly. What what
  898. 36:41does homework look like for you when you
  899. 36:43really get serious about learning about
  900. 36:44a company and you know you could use
  901. 36:46something that you're interested in in
  902. 36:48now or Amazon I know you've done quite a
  903. 36:50bit of work on and and uh you really are
  904. 36:53are focused on that in terms of exposure
  905. 36:55to AI in many different domains but what
  906. 36:58what should what homework do uh
  907. 37:00investors need to do to make sure they
  908. 37:02understand a company its prospects and
  909. 37:05how it might be impacted by AI? Well,
  910. 37:08before I can get to a point where I have
  911. 37:10high conviction in a trade, I do all the
  912. 37:13work. And what I mean by all the work is
  913. 37:15I read all the stuff. I read everything
  914. 37:18that's been written about that company
  915. 37:19in the past 6 months, every analyst
  916. 37:22report I can get my hands on, every
  917. 37:24media story. I read every retail
  918. 37:27investor opinion. Uh I try to read every
  919. 37:31meaningful,
  920. 37:32you know, expost.
  921. 37:35uh I get into investor chat rooms and I
  922. 37:38want to get the perspective of everyone.
  923. 37:41I want to see what the short position
  924. 37:42is. I want to see what the long position
  925. 37:44is. I want to know exactly what
  926. 37:46investors think on both sides of that
  927. 37:49story, right? I then I then want to go
  928. 37:52in and do deep deep research on every
  929. 37:55aspect of the business to assess what
  930. 37:58people are missing. Right? Like I I want
  931. 38:01to understand what the drivers are of
  932. 38:02this business and I want to understand
  933. 38:05is there anything happening
  934. 38:08within each of those drivers that people
  935. 38:10are just misunderstanding or
  936. 38:12misperceiving where people are just not
  937. 38:15seeing clearly. Right? It takes between
  938. 38:1840 and 70 hours for me to do this on a
  939. 38:21single company. And towards the end, it
  940. 38:24gets pretty brutal because I find myself
  941. 38:26late night, you know, barely keeping my
  942. 38:30eyes open, desperate to find new
  943. 38:32information. And that's when I know I'm
  944. 38:34coming to a close on my research when I
  945. 38:36actually cannot find one piece of
  946. 38:41conversational data of research anywhere
  947. 38:45in the world. And by the way, I look at
  948. 38:46all the alternative data. I pull data.
  949. 38:48I, you know, every piece of data I can
  950. 38:51pull, whether it's web traffic, whether
  951. 38:53it's transactional credit card data,
  952. 38:55whether it's search data, uh social
  953. 38:59data, uh people speaking about their
  954. 39:02products. I I interview store clerks. If
  955. 39:05it's a company that sells their products
  956. 39:07at retail, um there's numerous types of
  957. 39:11data that you can, you know, aggregate
  958. 39:14that all potentially touch a company.
  959. 39:18So, I I turn over every rock because I
  960. 39:21don't want to miss anything. I might be
  961. 39:24wrong in my thesis, but I don't want to
  962. 39:26be wrong because I missed some
  963. 39:30information. And when I'm putting five
  964. 39:33to 30 plus% of my entire portfolio at
  965. 39:36risk in a single position, sometimes
  966. 39:39levered uh where if I'm wrong, I will
  967. 39:41lose the entirety of that position. So I
  968. 39:44might lose, you know, double digits,
  969. 39:47you know, percentage of my entire
  970. 39:49portfolio if I'm wrong. I need to know
  971. 39:52everything and that and that's what I
  972. 39:54do. So it's like it sounds dumb, but I
  973. 39:56just read everything like I don't I
  974. 39:58don't leave anything unread. It takes
  975. 40:00weeks and weeks to do that.
  976. 40:03>> Are are you leveraging AI in any way
  977. 40:06while you're doing this? I understand
  978. 40:07like um that that can be both good and
  979. 40:10bad. You can you can not like you've
  980. 40:12trained your brain to look for what
  981. 40:15you're looking for, but are you
  982. 40:16leveraging agents to kind of culminate
  983. 40:19uh resources data for you? Anything like
  984. 40:21that? Or it's all just manual you doing
  985. 40:24uh you know searching and and stuff like
  986. 40:26that?
  987. 40:27uh recently, the past few months, it's
  988. 40:29it's heavy-handed on the AI side. I use
  989. 40:32mostly codecs
  990. 40:34>> and I use agents to essentially help me
  991. 40:39overturn every rock, right? Like
  992. 40:42>> I I I share with codeex everything that
  993. 40:45I'm learning, my thesis,
  994. 40:48and it is doing the work alongside me,
  995. 40:51and it it's trying to poke holes in
  996. 40:54things that I'm not seeing or that I'm
  997. 40:55missing. So, it's been a wonderful like
  998. 40:59partner as a social arb investor,
  999. 41:02>> you know, it's like having an entire
  1000. 41:05team who were just working with you on
  1001. 41:07your timeline, which has just been
  1002. 41:09absolutely amazing. So, yeah, I mean, I
  1003. 41:12don't know how you don't use it quite
  1004. 41:13honestly. Like, it's wild to me. I don't
  1005. 41:15know how you would be in any part of the
  1006. 41:19investment sector and not heavily engage
  1007. 41:22with AI to do nothing other than check
  1008. 41:25yourself and to aid in your research and
  1009. 41:28to aid in your thinking and to kind of
  1010. 41:30play devil's advocate on everything that
  1011. 41:32you do.
  1012. 41:33>> Yeah. I uh Chris, I wanted to pick your
  1013. 41:35brain on robotics and where that kind of
  1014. 41:38fits into uh the larger waves and
  1015. 41:42thesis. Is that part of the AI
  1016. 41:44efficiency where that's kind of taking
  1017. 41:46over a lot of the labor aspect and where
  1018. 41:49do you see kind of where robotics is
  1019. 41:51now? Uh the timelines of what it could
  1020. 41:53be in in 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. Is
  1021. 41:56it kind of on schedule? Because I know
  1022. 41:58uh you know you you you've talked quite
  1023. 41:59a bit about it in the past.
  1024. 42:01>> Yeah. I I don't think robotics is going
  1025. 42:03to meaningfully impact any of these
  1026. 42:06sectors in the near-term future. I think
  1027. 42:09timelines are way off. As you know, I'm
  1028. 42:11probably one of the biggest robotics
  1029. 42:12bulls in the world. Uh, I think it'll be
  1030. 42:15the biggest addressable market in human
  1031. 42:18history when it actually starts to take
  1032. 42:20shape and we start to scale out
  1033. 42:23deployment of generalized robotics
  1034. 42:25across warehousing and industry and
  1035. 42:28quite honestly every facet of life.
  1036. 42:30>> I just don't think that's happening
  1037. 42:31anytime soon. My timelines have always
  1038. 42:34been a little bit further off than
  1039. 42:36anyone else's and I'm even pushing my
  1040. 42:39timelines back some now. So I think
  1041. 42:44robotics are I mean listen if you're
  1042. 42:46tracking any of the generalized robotics
  1043. 42:48companies it's
  1044. 42:50if you're if you're being truthful with
  1045. 42:52yourself to realize that everyone's
  1046. 42:54delayed meaningfully delayed like we
  1047. 42:56haven't seen Optimus right like Optimus
  1048. 42:58in forever there's a reason for that uh
  1049. 43:00we've seen some videos that have been
  1050. 43:02pretty spectacular but a lot of these
  1051. 43:04videos that are coming out are you know
  1052. 43:08leveraging a highly synthesized ed uh
  1053. 43:12models to have the robots do things over
  1054. 43:16a short time period uh that look
  1055. 43:18spectacular, but they're doing it kind
  1056. 43:20of in the same way over and over again.
  1057. 43:22It's not fully generalized, and this is
  1058. 43:25something I think a lot of investors
  1059. 43:26don't fully comprehend. That said, the
  1060. 43:29the long-term thesis hasn't changed. I
  1061. 43:32think if we start to move into 2030s, we
  1062. 43:35start to see the signs of what robotics
  1063. 43:38will do. probably before 2030s. I think
  1064. 43:40we get into 2028, 2029,
  1065. 43:43investors will start to see enough to
  1066. 43:46where we will repric certain companies
  1067. 43:49and industries based on what we know is
  1068. 43:53coming over the next 5 to 8 years with
  1069. 43:55automation, generalized robotics, uh the
  1070. 43:59ability to scale out physical labor, uh
  1071. 44:03without being reliant on an unstable
  1072. 44:05human labor force, right? That doesn't
  1073. 44:08necessarily mean we're going to do away
  1074. 44:10with the human labor as much as it says
  1075. 44:13that the human labor will be in such
  1076. 44:14high demand uh for more sophisticated
  1077. 44:18use cases that the concept of thinking
  1078. 44:21about human labor to do a repetitive
  1079. 44:23task like this 12 hours a day, 8 hours a
  1080. 44:26day, whatever it is for 30 years is
  1081. 44:29going away as it should because humans
  1082. 44:31shouldn't be doing that type of work in
  1083. 44:34the 2030s and beyond. we should think
  1084. 44:37more of ourselves, right? Like it's easy
  1085. 44:39for us to say we don't want to people,
  1086. 44:41you know, like you don't want to take
  1087. 44:42away those jobs. No, we want to replace
  1088. 44:44those jobs with better jobs for humans.
  1089. 44:47Uh where people get to use their minds
  1090. 44:49more. They get to be a bit more
  1091. 44:51creative. They get to live a bit more of
  1092. 44:53a diverse and safe lifestyle and spend a
  1093. 44:57bit more time engaging with other
  1094. 44:59humans, right? So, I'm really excited
  1095. 45:02about it, but it's not part of the early
  1096. 45:06uh kind of AI efficiency wave that I'm
  1097. 45:09referring to. Got
  1098. 45:10>> what I'm referring to is
  1099. 45:12>> mostly just digital, right? It's it's
  1100. 45:16just in the intelligence layer, but we
  1101. 45:19will see this kicking in in the 2030s,
  1102. 45:21and I think we'll start to price it in
  1103. 45:23before the 2030s
  1104. 45:25as well. to flip the script a little
  1105. 45:28bit. I I want to pick your brain as well
  1106. 45:30on kind of the opposite of AI and
  1107. 45:33digital and like
  1108. 45:34>> kind of get to the root of like human
  1109. 45:36connection. Is there Yeah, because there
  1110. 45:38almost seems like uh uh you know people
  1111. 45:41uh you want to get off their phones a
  1112. 45:42little bit. They're kind of seeking
  1113. 45:43communities more and more. Um you know,
  1114. 45:46one one thing I'm thinking about is um
  1115. 45:49SPHR sphere, the Las Vegas experience,
  1116. 45:52like that in-person experience that is
  1117. 45:54unique to that point in time. um outside
  1118. 45:57of AI and all that, are you interested
  1119. 45:59at all in these kind of industries where
  1120. 46:01it's more about human con connection,
  1121. 46:04in-person experiences,
  1122. 46:06uh that side of things? I'd love to hear
  1123. 46:07kind of your thoughts on on that. Yeah,
  1124. 46:10this is like my biggest thesis in 2020
  1125. 46:13actually, which is why I helped launch a
  1126. 46:16traveling Pokemon show called
  1127. 46:18Collecticon that became the largest
  1128. 46:20Pokemon show in the world that we, you
  1129. 46:22know, recently sold to Ari Emanuel and
  1130. 46:26his group and now they're, you know,
  1131. 46:27getting even bigger. It's very exciting.
  1132. 46:29But I spent five years deeply engaged
  1133. 46:32with in-person experiences. And there's
  1134. 46:36no doubt in my mind that that will be a
  1135. 46:39massive growth industry. Not
  1136. 46:41specifically Pokemon or just Pokemon,
  1137. 46:43but in-person experiences. I have
  1138. 46:46restaurants and for the first time in
  1139. 46:48the last 6 months, I'm seeing more and
  1140. 46:50more people bringing card games to my
  1141. 46:52restaurants and just sitting with each
  1142. 46:54other. Uh, you know, they tend not to
  1143. 46:57drink so much anymore. So economically
  1144. 46:59it's not great for my restaurant, but
  1145. 47:01they hang out and they they're playing
  1146. 47:03cards. You know, they're hanging out
  1147. 47:04with each other face to face. We're
  1148. 47:06seeing more of that. I think we embrace
  1149. 47:09both. I think we fully embrace where AI
  1150. 47:13is leading us because it will be very
  1151. 47:15difficult for our brains to say no to
  1152. 47:17that. the immersiveness of
  1153. 47:22being able to do anything in the digital
  1154. 47:25world, especially with gaming. I think
  1155. 47:27we'll see gaming evolve. Obviously,
  1156. 47:28we'll see what happens with the new GTA
  1157. 47:30coming out later this year, but I I
  1158. 47:32think gaming will become more and more
  1159. 47:34addictive. I think, you know, just
  1160. 47:37engaging uh in the digital world will
  1161. 47:40become more unfortunately or
  1162. 47:42fortunately, it will become more and
  1163. 47:43more addictive. But we'll see an equal
  1164. 47:45amount of thirst
  1165. 47:48>> for
  1166. 47:49to get unglued, right? And so I think
  1167. 47:53we'll do both. I think I think we'll
  1168. 47:55probably see a healthy market for both
  1169. 47:58inperson and, you know, bleeding edge
  1170. 48:01technology
  1171. 48:03as well. I think both will be really
  1172. 48:04healthy. I've had this thesis now, which
  1173. 48:06is my big one around podcasters, right?
  1174. 48:08I I think I think podcasting I think
  1175. 48:11creators I think
  1176. 48:13>> anyone that is
  1177. 48:15>> meaningfully human, the most human of
  1178. 48:18humans, right? Those of us that are the
  1179. 48:20boldest, the most outspoken,
  1180. 48:23uh the most fearless
  1181. 48:26and interesting and creative human
  1182. 48:28voices are going to flourish the next 10
  1183. 48:33years. We will thirst for that. In an
  1184. 48:35age of AI where we can barely tell the
  1185. 48:38difference between what is human and
  1186. 48:40what is AI, we are going to truly learn
  1187. 48:44to appreciate
  1188. 48:45those humans that are most special. The
  1189. 48:48humans that can make us laugh, right?
  1190. 48:50The humans that you know we kind of
  1191. 48:54connect to and relate to uh in a very
  1192. 48:58human way. Uh I think these people will
  1193. 49:02become the rock stars and athletes of
  1194. 49:05the next 20 years. Uh especially when we
  1195. 49:08look at what's happening to traditional
  1196. 49:10media, that world has already blown up.
  1197. 49:13It for the most part doesn't exist. It's
  1198. 49:14just in the early stages of an extremely
  1199. 49:17slow death. So if you fast forward 10 to
  1200. 49:2015 years, I think there are hundreds and
  1201. 49:23hundreds of individual
  1202. 49:26creators uh worth on hundreds of
  1203. 49:31millions of dollars through their uh
  1204. 49:33media enterprises that they're going to
  1205. 49:35be building over the next decade because
  1206. 49:38we will thirst for that. Um I'm really
  1207. 49:41excited about actually I'm building out
  1208. 49:42a podcast studio in Austin. Uh we're
  1209. 49:45launching our first show this fall. I'm
  1210. 49:48launching a new show for me and the Dumb
  1211. 49:49Money crew. We haven't talked about that
  1212. 49:51yet, but it'll be like an instudio show
  1213. 49:53that I'm like wildly excited about. Um,
  1214. 49:56but also, you know, we'll be launching
  1215. 49:59some really interesting shows down in
  1216. 50:01Austin because I just believe that the
  1217. 50:05most prolific voices out there in the
  1218. 50:08world are not yet being heard because of
  1219. 50:11the friction that currently exists
  1220. 50:13between being a solo creator and, you
  1221. 50:16know, doing Tik Toks in your bedroom and
  1222. 50:19actually creating a durable medium to
  1223. 50:22where you could regularly engage with
  1224. 50:24the world. uh in a way that you're able
  1225. 50:27to actually build uh you know like a
  1226. 50:31routine voice, right? That people can
  1227. 50:33depend on and count on and and build on
  1228. 50:36over many years. And my goal is to help
  1229. 50:38find those human voices and help bring
  1230. 50:41them to the world in a much bigger
  1231. 50:42scalable way. I'm doing it for the fun
  1232. 50:45of it because man, when you spent the I
  1233. 50:47spent the last four years of my life
  1234. 50:48kneede in robotics and AI, right? So,
  1235. 50:51like I myself thirst for more of the
  1236. 50:55human experience, right?
  1237. 50:58>> And like I every I had a dinner last
  1238. 51:00night uh and it was just spectacular. It
  1239. 51:02was like a 4hour dinner with a couple
  1240. 51:05guys. One of them I haven't seen in
  1241. 51:07years. And we didn't even drink. Like
  1242. 51:10we're at dinner just talking for four
  1243. 51:13hours. And this is, you know, I spend
  1244. 51:17dozens and dozens of hours a week alone
  1245. 51:20as a lone wolf researching data,
  1246. 51:24conversational data and investment
  1247. 51:26opportunities and
  1248. 51:28and and to get in front of actual humans
  1249. 51:30on a regular basis and just have those
  1250. 51:32shared experiences. It just feels more
  1251. 51:34special today, I don't know, than it did
  1252. 51:37>> seven or eight years ago. Now, maybe we
  1253. 51:40don't do it as much, but when we do it,
  1254. 51:42man, is it great and special. And I
  1255. 51:45>> I love nothing more than listening to my
  1256. 51:47favorite podcasters. I love nothing like
  1257. 51:50And it's in your pocket, right? It's
  1258. 51:52everywhere you go. It's in the car.
  1259. 51:54You're doing you're walking your dog,
  1260. 51:56right? Like you're I'm in my closet
  1261. 51:59getting dressed and like it's so
  1262. 52:02portable.
  1263. 52:03>> Media
  1264. 52:04>> uh has become so portable. It's really
  1265. 52:09And by the way, I think that's a healthy
  1266. 52:10media, too. That's not like you on
  1267. 52:12social media flipping. It's like you
  1268. 52:14actually listening to other humans
  1269. 52:17expressing their thoughts and their
  1270. 52:19feelings. And I just love it so much.
  1271. 52:22And I think we're in the earliest stages
  1272. 52:24of it. So if if you are a creative human
  1273. 52:28that feels like you haven't been valued
  1274. 52:31in your life because we've only had one
  1275. 52:33really narrow path to success. You know
  1276. 52:37if you wanted to be perceived as being
  1277. 52:39valuable in this world or successful in
  1278. 52:41this world, you had to kind of follow
  1279. 52:43this one path to success. And if you
  1280. 52:46were a creative or you were just an
  1281. 52:48interesting person that likes to make
  1282. 52:50people people laugh, right? I if all of
  1283. 52:53those skill sets I think are going to
  1284. 52:55become meaningfully more valuable over
  1285. 52:57the next decade, decade and a half
  1286. 52:59because we're about to democratize the
  1287. 53:01intelligence layer. So once you
  1288. 53:03democratize the intelligence layer, all
  1289. 53:06of the other aspects of life become
  1290. 53:09meaningfully more valuable, right? So
  1291. 53:13you know I love that. I love that so
  1292. 53:16many people that have been ignored for
  1293. 53:18so long are about to become unbelievably
  1294. 53:21valuable and respected and precious in
  1295. 53:25the new world. Uh because they they
  1296. 53:28always should have been quite honestly.
  1297. 53:30But our our economic model didn't allow
  1298. 53:32them to be because there was really no
  1299. 53:34way for them to monetize themselves.
  1300. 53:37there was no way for them to like
  1301. 53:39actually
  1302. 53:41uh validate
  1303. 53:44their specialness in the world, right?
  1304. 53:47And now there is I I this is almost like
  1305. 53:50a Tik Tok moment where you had for the
  1306. 53:52first time we were democratizing people
  1307. 53:54that were good at like dancing or good
  1308. 53:57at like
  1309. 53:58>> these five things on Tik Tok right now
  1310. 54:02like truly anyone that's delivering any
  1311. 54:06value to any human uh outside of just
  1312. 54:10intelligence which we don't even we
  1313. 54:11won't even appreciate much longer,
  1314. 54:13right? Like that's all we've cared about
  1315. 54:15for like all of our life. All we cared
  1316. 54:17about is intelligence, right? Like what
  1317. 54:18are you able doing? Now, anything you're
  1318. 54:21capable of doing to improve life uh for
  1319. 54:25any other human will become increasingly
  1320. 54:27valuable. I I just absolutely love that.
  1321. 54:31>> Perfect. Well, Chris, this has been so
  1322. 54:33much fun. I love hearing your
  1323. 54:34perspective. Uh any last thoughts uh for
  1324. 54:37investors and traders out there on uh
  1325. 54:41you know key principles that you've want
  1326. 54:42them to walk away with today or just uh
  1327. 54:45things to think about as they continue
  1328. 54:46to invest over the next year, two years,
  1329. 54:49three year time horizon.
  1330. 54:51>> Yeah, absolutely. If you're an investor
  1331. 54:53right now, leave your screen, leave the
  1332. 54:55market. Start with one day. Put your
  1333. 54:59stock app down for one day. Call one
  1334. 55:02friend and say, "Hey, if we have a
  1335. 55:04market crash and the market's crashing
  1336. 55:05over 3%, call me." Okay? I don't want
  1337. 55:09you to look at CNBC. I don't want you to
  1338. 55:11look at your stocks for 24 hours, an
  1339. 55:14entire business day, okay? Just don't
  1340. 55:17think about it. I think you should do
  1341. 55:19that probably minimum once a month. And
  1342. 55:23you have to get out of this habit of
  1343. 55:26living and dying by the success of your
  1344. 55:29portfolio every day. Because if you do
  1345. 55:31that, you will start to doubt yourself.
  1346. 55:33You will see this volatility and you
  1347. 55:36will think that other people see things
  1348. 55:37that you don't see. You'll think that
  1349. 55:39there's something that you're missing
  1350. 55:41and you'll start making ridiculous
  1351. 55:42trades because of that. There's just no
  1352. 55:45reason to do that. Like I spend the
  1353. 55:47majority of my life researching trades,
  1354. 55:49but I'm not looking at the market hardly
  1355. 55:51ever. Like I do look at the market
  1356. 55:53generally every day, couple times a day.
  1357. 55:56I don't let it concern me. Like I just
  1358. 55:58don't care because it's like it I I I
  1359. 56:01know now over the course of my career
  1360. 56:02that the market goes up and down for
  1361. 56:05insane reasons on a daily basis. If you
  1362. 56:07really want to be part of that world and
  1363. 56:09that's going to be your profession and
  1364. 56:11you want to have an early death because
  1365. 56:13that's what it's going to do to you,
  1366. 56:14okay? Like like if you want to really
  1367. 56:17have your head in this game because it
  1368. 56:19never ends. The markets really never
  1369. 56:21ends now, right? It's like 24 hours with
  1370. 56:22all the things you can trade. It's
  1371. 56:24weekends. If you really want that to be
  1372. 56:27your life, fine. You You're probably
  1373. 56:29young and you want to do it for a few
  1374. 56:31years. I did it. At some point, you have
  1375. 56:33to stop, guys. Okay? You just have to
  1376. 56:36stop. Um you focus your time on
  1377. 56:39research. live your life and stop paying
  1378. 56:43so much attention to every freaking
  1379. 56:46move, every article, every rumor, every
  1380. 56:50bit of market gossip. Like, it's just it
  1381. 56:53will destroy you. It will destroy your
  1382. 56:55portfolio. It will destroy your ability
  1383. 56:58to think independently because you'll be
  1384. 57:01spending way too much time listening to
  1385. 57:03others as opposed to like developing an
  1386. 57:07independent mindset on what you believe
  1387. 57:09is real and important, right? I'd rather
  1388. 57:12have you spend that time
  1389. 57:15in community forums where developers are
  1390. 57:18chatting all day about what they're
  1391. 57:19building in AI. That's valuable. Or if
  1392. 57:22you want to be on the consumer side,
  1393. 57:25which I am most of the time, read
  1394. 57:27comments on whatever the trending videos
  1395. 57:29are across Tik Tok of what people are
  1396. 57:31buying, what they're wearing, what
  1397. 57:32they're doing, what their time, what
  1398. 57:33their interest level is, uh where
  1399. 57:35they're traveling, what they're like.
  1400. 57:37That's how you garner real
  1401. 57:39differentiated intelligence that you
  1402. 57:41could then connect dots back to sectors
  1403. 57:44and companies in the market. And you're
  1404. 57:46competing with 99 out of 100 investors
  1405. 57:49are doing none of that. They're just
  1406. 57:51literally getting on X every day and
  1407. 57:54thinking about whatever they're told to
  1408. 57:56think about that day. How are you going
  1409. 57:59to develop an independent thought if you
  1410. 58:01live inside of that world? You can't
  1411. 58:03live inside that world. You must
  1412. 58:05disconnect from the market. So, call a
  1413. 58:08friend, say, "Hey, if the market moves
  1414. 58:09more 3 or 4%, call me." Because you
  1415. 58:12might want to know what the hell's going
  1416. 58:13on, right? Uh and and that gives you the
  1417. 58:16peace of mind, by the way. It gives you
  1418. 58:18the peace of mind. Then do not look at
  1419. 58:22any business news that day. Do not look
  1420. 58:24at anything in the market. Do not look
  1421. 58:25at your portfolio. Don't check anything.
  1422. 58:29Just do anything other than that. I
  1423. 58:32promise you, your mental health is going
  1424. 58:34to go through the roof. You are going to
  1425. 58:36be such a If you can do this once a
  1426. 58:38week, that's gold, right? That that's
  1427. 58:41lifechanging for an investor. And I say
  1428. 58:44that because this is like a new thing
  1429. 58:46the last few years where every investor
  1430. 58:49is like glued to this 24 hours a day. I
  1431. 58:52can't even imagine. Are you guys like at
  1432. 58:54family dinner just talking to your kids
  1433. 58:56and wife if you have one just about this
  1434. 58:59because that's it seems like that's all
  1435. 59:00you think about is this crap and like it
  1436. 59:02never ends. So you just it's not
  1437. 59:05healthy. It's not balanced. It's not
  1438. 59:08helping your portfolio. And if I can
  1439. 59:10give investors one piece of advice, I
  1440. 59:12promise you, you will be a better
  1441. 59:15investor if you can figure out how to
  1442. 59:17regularly disconnect from the market
  1443. 59:20minutia and noise. It's not helping you.
  1444. 59:23>> Awesome. Well, Chris, uh, thank you so
  1445. 59:25much for your time, for sharing your
  1446. 59:27ideas and thoughts. Really appreciate
  1447. 59:29it. Uh, where can people reach out to
  1448. 59:31you or or Dor for you if if they want to
  1449. 59:34connect?
  1450. 59:34>> Yeah, man. I'm I'm on every channel. I'm
  1451. 59:36I'm on X Chris Camilillo. I have a daily
  1452. 59:38clips channel now on Instagram, Tik Tok,
  1453. 59:41YouTube. It's daily Chris Camilillo.
  1454. 59:44Obviously, we have the Dumb Money Live
  1455. 59:45YouTube show that we do every try to do
  1456. 59:47every week, but we don't always get one
  1457. 59:49out every week. Um, I'm really active on
  1458. 59:52X, right at Chris Camilillo. But
  1459. 59:54anywhere, guys, like I'm I'm all over
  1460. 59:56the place. So, you know, love love to
  1461. 59:59continue uh the journey and I love that
  1462. 1:00:03there's so many retail investors, but
  1463. 1:00:04just chill out guys. Everything's going
  1464. 1:00:06to be fine. Okay.
  1465. 1:00:07>> [laughter]
  1466. 1:00:08>> Everything's going to be fine. Uh, don't
  1467. 1:00:10get caught up in the market on a daily
  1468. 1:00:12basis. I promise you, you will live a
  1469. 1:00:14happier life and your portfolio will
  1470. 1:00:15probably do way way better.
  1471. 1:00:17>> There we go. A great a great thought to
  1472. 1:00:19end on. Chris, thanks again so much for
  1473. 1:00:20your time. Uh, to everybody watching, I
  1474. 1:00:22hope you guys enjoyed. Uh, leave a like
  1475. 1:00:23down below if you did. Subscribe if
  1476. 1:00:25you're new to the channel and we'll be
  1477. 1:00:26right back. Cheers.
  1478. 1:00:29[music]

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