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AI Is Changing Time: Those Who Can’t Compete, Compute — Transcript

by Jordi Visser · 9,101 words · 1,344 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00All right. Uh
  2. 0:03just a little bit of notes um because
  3. 0:06people have reached out. First of all,
  4. 0:08this um because this may be uh the last
  5. 0:12week that I'm in Maine. Uh not sure yet.
  6. 0:14I'm not sure whether I'll be recording
  7. 0:15from here or Maine next week, but uh
  8. 0:19I've been asked a lot of questions
  9. 0:21particularly about uh Maine. And I just
  10. 0:26want to give people who are getting to
  11. 0:27know me, have seen me on podcasts. Uh
  12. 0:30the reason I'm in Maine is because on
  13. 0:32September 11th, 2001, and we're
  14. 0:35approaching 25 years since September 1st
  15. 0:38or September 11. Um many of you know the
  16. 0:42best my best friend growing up and the
  17. 0:43best man at my wedding died 911. Um I
  18. 0:46ended up uh going back to Morgan
  19. 0:48Stanley. I was a partner there already.
  20. 0:50I was on the trading floor the day after
  21. 0:51when the markets were closed uh
  22. 0:54basically with other partners figuring
  23. 0:55out how we were going to operate and run
  24. 0:56business and uh very emotional obviously
  25. 1:00and I got a phone call. I had made an
  26. 1:01offer on a house in Maine because I had
  27. 1:03taken my daughter up there, my oldest
  28. 1:04daughter up to camp there. Fell in love
  29. 1:06with the place. Reminded me of my father
  30. 1:09um being the son of a a bluecollar
  31. 1:11worker and being the son of a core
  32. 1:14driller. Uh I just fell in love with the
  33. 1:15place. I did not like the shores uh of
  34. 1:19the area that I grew up in in New Jersey
  35. 1:21and definitely not the Hampton's my
  36. 1:23style. So, I fell in love with Maine. I
  37. 1:25bought a home in Kenny Bunkport. Um
  38. 1:27moved up there and I did the commute
  39. 1:29there for about 15 years. I've moved
  40. 1:31further north now to get away from the
  41. 1:34people that found Maine. Uh but in the
  42. 1:36background, people have asked about the
  43. 1:37painting. The painting is a reference to
  44. 1:40uh Shawn Christopher Shawn Kaitton who
  45. 1:42was a caner who died. Uh, I bought that
  46. 1:45painting after I moved to Maine. The
  47. 1:46wine bottle behind me is the bottle that
  48. 1:49I bought in Napa Valley, which is a
  49. 1:51remembrance of 911. I turned the bottle
  50. 1:53around this week. It has remembrance if
  51. 1:55you guys want to blow it up. You've got
  52. 1:56a Bernard King signed basketball there.
  53. 1:57You've got my Nicks hat on. Sean and I
  54. 1:59went to um many games. And then also
  55. 2:02behind me is a photo of him and I at a
  56. 2:05bar in the Bronx many hours after the
  57. 2:07Yankees won the World Series uh where
  58. 2:09Wade Bogs was riding the police horse.
  59. 2:12Uh Maine is a special place for me. I
  60. 2:15come up every year and since you guys
  61. 2:16asked about it, I just wanted to go
  62. 2:18through. Now on other notes for you guys
  63. 2:20that have reached out, number one, I
  64. 2:21will never reach out to you in WhatsApp
  65. 2:24offering you trades or doing anything. I
  66. 2:26will never do that in X. If you reach
  67. 2:28out to me in LinkedIn, I may or may not
  68. 2:30respond because I get hundreds of people
  69. 2:34reaching out. Same thing goes in my
  70. 2:36email. So don't take it personally if I
  71. 2:38don't respond. Don't I'm never reaching
  72. 2:41out to anyone. So, unless you're on the
  73. 2:43subscriber emails, you're not getting
  74. 2:45anything from me. I say that because
  75. 2:47there's AI bots everywhere and people
  76. 2:49impersonating me on every single
  77. 2:50location. I tried to get rid of them for
  78. 2:52a while. Didn't work. Um, on another
  79. 2:56note, people that are sending me stuff
  80. 2:57about what do you think about this
  81. 2:59Goldman Sachs person or this Morgan Sax
  82. 3:01person, the Gold Morgan Stanley person,
  83. 3:02they have a different view on XYZ. Guys,
  84. 3:04if you haven't learned anything watching
  85. 3:06this, I don't care about anyone's
  86. 3:07opinions. I care about everyone's
  87. 3:10opinions, but not anyone's opinions. I
  88. 3:12do my own work. I take all of the
  89. 3:15information that I can together and then
  90. 3:16I make a decision in a paramutual manner
  91. 3:20where I go through the odds and I'm
  92. 3:22trying to find things that people either
  93. 3:23don't agree with me on. So, I'm
  94. 3:25generally trying to be somewhat of a
  95. 3:27contrarian, but at the same point, I'm
  96. 3:29trying to find ideas that have good
  97. 3:30riskreward. I will always be an
  98. 3:32independent thinker. I will always be
  99. 3:34flexible on my views. So, I'm going to
  100. 3:35take you guys through that today cuz
  101. 3:37some of you said that I'm only positive.
  102. 3:39And if that's what you believe from the
  103. 3:41subscriber list and if you ended up
  104. 3:43buying the top of the market because you
  105. 3:45subscribed and said, "Oh, this is a bull
  106. 3:47market in something." I'm going to go
  107. 3:49through and show you how to take all of
  108. 3:50the transcripts I do and I'm going to
  109. 3:52give you a prompt to incorporate it into
  110. 3:54a way where you can take the
  111. 3:55information. I'm just speaking from the
  112. 3:57heart every single week. Guys, one thing
  113. 4:00I will say repeatedly, we are in a
  114. 4:02structurable market in the demand for
  115. 4:04compute. It is insatiable. And until I
  116. 4:07start hearing people that I respect on
  117. 4:08Wall Street start recognizing that there
  118. 4:11is no end ever coming up for the demand
  119. 4:13for compute, just like there is no food
  120. 4:16end. If we keep increasing people on the
  121. 4:19planet by a billion every year, that we
  122. 4:21will never catch up. The same thing for
  123. 4:23compute. It is impossible to get enough
  124. 4:26compute for all of the billions of
  125. 4:29agents that are coming online that are
  126. 4:31just starting. This is investing in
  127. 4:33compute. So, this whole video today is
  128. 4:36to some degree going to be about
  129. 4:38compute. And that's why I'm going to go
  130. 4:40back to the agenda side for this week.
  131. 4:43Um, my job is to help your business,
  132. 4:46whether you're an RAIA, whether you're
  133. 4:48an asset manager, help you with
  134. 4:50research, help you with independent
  135. 4:51thinking, but also get you ready to help
  136. 4:54your children adjust to this world
  137. 4:56because it's coming fast and it's going
  138. 4:57to be accelerating over the next
  139. 5:00certainly 24 months. Crypto is going to
  140. 5:02be a bigger part of the discussion. And
  141. 5:04if you have no knowledge of crypto or no
  142. 5:06understanding as to where it's going to
  143. 5:07be, you're going to suffer in the next
  144. 5:0812 months for sure. But certainly 24
  145. 5:11months, you're going to have to adapt.
  146. 5:13So we'll go through the recap. We'll go
  147. 5:14through the compute. We'll go through
  148. 5:15the token factories, Coreweave, Google,
  149. 5:17SpaceX, their commentary. The AI regime
  150. 5:21change, which has to do with the stuff
  151. 5:22that I'm doing. And probably most
  152. 5:25importantly, two things there. Number
  153. 5:27six. Number nine. Number six, we are
  154. 5:29going back to work, guys. The summer is
  155. 5:31over. I'm heading back to New York. I
  156. 5:33have spent a lot of time working. I've
  157. 5:35tried to create prompts. I've created a
  158. 5:37new website. There's a whole bunch of
  159. 5:38things I've done um with AI agents,
  160. 5:42which hopefully I've been able to give
  161. 5:43you guys some stuff that has helped. But
  162. 5:45the 2027 outlook is what I'm going to
  163. 5:47start focusing on because next year is
  164. 5:48about consumer agents. This year was
  165. 5:51about agents, the agentic economy
  166. 5:53opening. Next year is about consumer
  167. 5:54agents and what they need, which is the
  168. 5:56financial guardrails, which is where
  169. 5:57crypto shows in. Number nine, be an
  170. 5:59entrepreneur, not an academic. Academics
  171. 6:02will continue to cost you money. Anyone
  172. 6:05that is giving you history and analoges
  173. 6:07and blah blah blah, especially
  174. 6:10economists, I will take you through why
  175. 6:12that is not worth your time. S&P up 40
  176. 6:14basis points for the week.
  177. 6:16IWM up 1%. Q's up 1%. The JV AI thematic
  178. 6:23portfolio outperformed again, up 3% for
  179. 6:25the week. We made new all-time highs in
  180. 6:27most of the important indices and also
  181. 6:31around the globe. uh the earnings and
  182. 6:35again I'll continue to say it earnings
  183. 6:38growth 51% for the S&P sales growth
  184. 6:41probably the more important number up
  185. 6:4315% year-over-year
  186. 6:47I can't remember a time when we were in
  187. 6:49a mature part of the economic cycle and
  188. 6:50global UPS is something like 47%
  189. 6:53year-over-year everywhere you look EPS
  190. 6:56has been moving smartly higher
  191. 6:58this is the critical thing if you start
  192. 7:00believing in people that tell you this
  193. 7:01is is an isolated bubble to a few tech
  194. 7:03names in the US. It's not true. You've
  195. 7:06got the whole globe breaking out in
  196. 7:07terms of earnings per share, and that's
  197. 7:08because time is changing. You're going
  198. 7:11to hear me talk about this a lot. This
  199. 7:13is going to provoke thought in you guys.
  200. 7:14I will have a very important Substack
  201. 7:16coming out. For you Substack readers,
  202. 7:19the time is coming where I'm going to go
  203. 7:20down to about once a month in my papers
  204. 7:22because I'm entering in the crypto side
  205. 7:24and most of the stuff is shifting to the
  206. 7:26subscriber site for my crypto work. Um,
  207. 7:30this is the MSCI World Bank index.
  208. 7:35This is parabolic and going higher. This
  209. 7:37is a reflection of what's happening with
  210. 7:39AI. All of these charts are a reflection
  211. 7:41of what's happening with AI. It is a
  212. 7:44reflection of what's happening around
  213. 7:45the globe. AI is disrupting all academic
  214. 7:48research that you know. All the things
  215. 7:51that you've believed in are breaking
  216. 7:52down. And the reason is because
  217. 7:54productivity is happening. more and more
  218. 7:57of the smarter people with inside the
  219. 7:59Fed that I read and the IMF and the
  220. 8:01they're starting to recognize now again
  221. 8:03it's got to be the younger people the
  222. 8:05productivity boom is happening you have
  223. 8:08to put it into context though earnings
  224. 8:10are up 30% year-over-year in the S&P
  225. 8:13forecast for this year this is our job
  226. 8:16hiring zero
  227. 8:19economists tell you the labor market is
  228. 8:21strong they want the Fed to raise rates
  229. 8:22this is all BS the labor market relative
  230. 8:26to the way things move over time. We
  231. 8:29should be hiring lots of people because
  232. 8:31we're growing earnings, not coming out
  233. 8:33of a recession like these periods at a
  234. 8:35record pace.
  235. 8:37So why aren't we hiring people? When I
  236. 8:39was at Morgan Stanley, if we had
  237. 8:40earnings growing rapidly, we'd be hiring
  238. 8:42people. That's what you did. You threw
  239. 8:43more money at more people. Not happening
  240. 8:46anymore. And the reason is because we've
  241. 8:48got enterprise agents which are coming.
  242. 8:50Not having started yet. They're coming.
  243. 8:53This does not mean we'll be losing
  244. 8:55millions of jobs. But what it does mean
  245. 8:56is we have job losses already. X
  246. 8:59healthcare. We're already seeing small
  247. 9:02job losses. That is productivity. We
  248. 9:04don't need as many people. We're seeing
  249. 9:06businesses set up. Startups are
  250. 9:09happening. We're getting more business
  251. 9:11formations. Jordy has a business.
  252. 9:14All of this stuff. I don't work now for
  253. 9:16a Fortune 500 company and I don't work
  254. 9:18for a country a company with 100 people.
  255. 9:20Started my own business. So consumer
  256. 9:23agents are coming next year. This is the
  257. 9:25token needs for them. This is what
  258. 9:27they're paid in. This is what they eat.
  259. 9:29This is what they need to survive. They
  260. 9:31work 247
  261. 9:33365.
  262. 9:35They're shrinking time. So when you say
  263. 9:37year overyear for anything now, that is
  264. 9:40a human thing. Agents don't sleep.
  265. 9:43Agents don't go to the bathroom. Agents
  266. 9:45don't go to lunch. Agents don't go to
  267. 9:47the pantry to flirt. Agents don't do any
  268. 9:50of that stuff. So what you're left with
  269. 9:52is token consumption is growing rapidly
  270. 9:55and time is shrinking. So in the case of
  271. 9:58year-over-year, the reason we're seeing
  272. 10:00earnings grow so fast, the reason
  273. 10:01nominal GDP at this point is at least
  274. 10:04growing where it is because the math on
  275. 10:06that is not correct, you have to focus
  276. 10:08on the profit margins and you have to
  277. 10:09focus on the earnings growth. Time is
  278. 10:12shrinking. So we're now doing
  279. 10:14effectively two times what it used to
  280. 10:16take in one year and then eventually
  281. 10:17it'll be three times and four times and
  282. 10:19five times. And the reason is because
  283. 10:21the agents are working all the time. Now
  284. 10:25this doesn't mean that things go
  285. 10:27parabolic in terms of the earnings. What
  286. 10:29it means is the earnings continue to
  287. 10:30outpace the prices because private
  288. 10:32companies are doing a lot of this. They
  289. 10:35are going to steal from the public
  290. 10:36companies. We'll spend more time on
  291. 10:38this. If you don't believe compute is
  292. 10:40insatiable
  293. 10:42right now, all of you know what coding
  294. 10:43agents are. At least you should. If you
  295. 10:45don't and don't know what I just said
  296. 10:47about 247365,
  297. 10:49well then we're going to get into
  298. 10:50finally them actually being deployed.
  299. 10:52They haven't even been deployed yet. We
  300. 10:54just have the capability of using them.
  301. 10:56Enterprise agents become persistent
  302. 10:58digital labor. This will be happening
  303. 11:00next year. Consumer agents will be
  304. 11:02following in the latter part of next
  305. 11:03year. This is your Jarvis. This is
  306. 11:05people ordering things for you. This is
  307. 11:07like your AMX uh uh assistant who does
  308. 11:13everything for you. this is coming and
  309. 11:15they'll be doing things while you sleep.
  310. 11:17They'll be booking your travel. They'll
  311. 11:18be ex orderering things for you.
  312. 11:20Everything will be happening
  313. 11:21instantaneously and we'll start reducing
  314. 11:23the friction in the economy. Then you're
  315. 11:25going to get into autonomous driving and
  316. 11:27for that you need a world a world model
  317. 11:30problem. We need a hell of a lot more
  318. 11:32compute for that. We need a hell of a
  319. 11:34lot more compute for humanoids. These
  320. 11:36are all coming every single year. These
  321. 11:38innovations used to take decades to
  322. 11:40come, but now they're happening in such
  323. 11:41a compressed amount of time because of
  324. 11:43intelligence.
  325. 11:44The numbers are staggering. Right now
  326. 11:46we're in this part. So this year we
  327. 11:48needed 10 to 100 times for the coding
  328. 11:50agents relative to last year for
  329. 11:52chatbots. That's why everything went
  330. 11:54parabolic. Look at the stepup function.
  331. 11:57Another 10 times. Then another 10 times.
  332. 12:01It never ends guys. The amount of
  333. 12:03compute we need never ends. We are
  334. 12:07transitioning from systems that give
  335. 12:08instant cash responses chatbot to
  336. 12:11systems that plan, reason and simulate
  337. 12:12outcomes before taking an action. This
  338. 12:14is so complex. This is demos sabas. We
  339. 12:17need magnitudes more compute. That's why
  340. 12:19Jensen Yuan comes out and says, and he
  341. 12:21only said this at the beginning of this
  342. 12:23year, it's going to be AI factories, the
  343. 12:25new infrastructure intelligence. We need
  344. 12:26this is what we need to produce. This is
  345. 12:28why there's compute futures. This is why
  346. 12:30everything you're hearing is about, oh,
  347. 12:32we need compute.
  348. 12:34We need it endlessly to feed the new
  349. 12:37billions of employees on the planet.
  350. 12:40Jensen Yuong says comput is the new
  351. 12:42economy. He said this at the Morgan
  352. 12:43Stanley event in March.
  353. 12:47Nvidia this week, AI factory computing
  354. 12:50investable asset class. The reason we
  355. 12:51know this is a fact is because Apollo,
  356. 12:54Black Rockck, Blackstone, Brookfield,
  357. 12:55Goldman Sachs, KKR to establish AI
  358. 12:58compute infrastructure financing
  359. 13:00platforms to mobilize over half a
  360. 13:02trillion dollars of third party capital
  361. 13:05to build the stuff that Nvidia needs.
  362. 13:07They don't want to use their balance
  363. 13:07sheet anymore. And people all signed up
  364. 13:10to do this. Morgan Stanley to facilitate
  365. 13:12$1.5 trillion in infrastructure
  366. 13:13initiative.
  367. 13:15The capital's there. Alphabet raises 25
  368. 13:18billion this past week. Intel announces
  369. 13:20a 15 billion stock offering for a
  370. 13:23company that was worth less than a
  371. 13:25hundred billion a year ago and they
  372. 13:28raised it to 20 billion in the stock
  373. 13:31traded higher than where the issuance
  374. 13:33was. China is in the same race which
  375. 13:36means the compute spending is happening
  376. 13:38around the globe. You can go read the
  377. 13:39little yellow lines but China and the US
  378. 13:42are in a race. The government is still
  379. 13:44trying to make sure that we don't lose
  380. 13:46to China. So, exempts data center bonds
  381. 13:48from key securization rules to make sure
  382. 13:51that it's easier for data center owners
  383. 13:54to sell asset back securities
  384. 13:55potentially open the door for more debt
  385. 13:57sales.
  386. 14:00If you're looking for data center
  387. 14:01delays, they're minor. We're still
  388. 14:03moving forward on everything on the data
  389. 14:05center side. Despite what you're reading
  390. 14:06in the media, there are delays. I've
  391. 14:08shown you guys my work on this. It's
  392. 14:11already built into the way things are
  393. 14:12being done. Nothing is a new surprise.
  394. 14:15All of these are going on. They will be
  395. 14:17delayed to some degree, but the capacity
  396. 14:19is still coming online. It's not as fast
  397. 14:22as it otherwise would be, but to be
  398. 14:23honest with you, it doesn't really
  399. 14:24matter because we don't have enough
  400. 14:27memory anyway. So, all of these delays
  401. 14:30are actually good because then we're not
  402. 14:32over buying things or at least overusing
  403. 14:35things before we get it in. So, the
  404. 14:37delays allow the revenues to go a little
  405. 14:40bit further out even though they've
  406. 14:41committed to them. coreweave this week.
  407. 14:44Very important in terms of going
  408. 14:46through. You don't have to believe
  409. 14:47anything they they say. You can go
  410. 14:49through it, but again, I've got tons of
  411. 14:50data that supports everything they say.
  412. 14:52I think the most important thing to go
  413. 14:54against things that you've heard from
  414. 14:55Michael Bur and from Jim Chados in
  415. 14:57particular, which I'll call out on this
  416. 15:00because they don't ever turn around and
  417. 15:02say, you know what, we were wrong. They
  418. 15:03just keep saying, "No, this is this is
  419. 15:05BS." They never change their mind ever.
  420. 15:07It never there's no like it's a 70%
  421. 15:10chance. It's always this is what's going
  422. 15:12to happen. So if you pay for that at
  423. 15:14least hopefully you pay for my stuff as
  424. 15:16well where I'm going to spend time where
  425. 15:17at this point I'm saying demand is
  426. 15:19insatiable.
  427. 15:21The A1 A100 is being contracted all the
  428. 15:24way to 2029. This was introduced in
  429. 15:262020. They're saying they're completely
  430. 15:29sold out. You can go through the
  431. 15:30physical infrastructure itself has
  432. 15:32scarcity value. So I've talked about you
  433. 15:34want to invest in scarcity. So they were
  434. 15:36originally saying two to three years may
  435. 15:37be realistic. They're talking about it
  436. 15:39being six to nine years now. New
  437. 15:42generations will be gone because the old
  438. 15:44one, we don't have enough data centers
  439. 15:46being built that we can replace it
  440. 15:48because the demand is greater than the
  441. 15:49supply. It's like walking into a
  442. 15:51supermarket. If they didn't have any
  443. 15:54food but cans of sardines, you would
  444. 15:56immediately love cans of sardines.
  445. 15:59Even if that was the last thing you
  446. 16:00wanted, that's what's happening is the
  447. 16:02demand is too great. we have too many
  448. 16:05agents buying or wanting and demanding
  449. 16:07too many tokens. You guys can go through
  450. 16:09the rest of this. The reality is it's
  451. 16:12just the fact that on every level
  452. 16:14whether it's pricing whether it's the
  453. 16:15stuff we hear from them what we hear
  454. 16:16from SpaceX what we hear from Google
  455. 16:18what we see from Google on that point
  456. 16:20with Google the article the uh podcast
  457. 16:24to listen to this week Google's AI brain
  458. 16:25drain from
  459. 16:27the all-in podcast they talk a lot about
  460. 16:30Google's reorganization framed it as a
  461. 16:32capital allocation shift I'm going to
  462. 16:33get into that a little bit more um
  463. 16:36two-horse race according to David Saxs
  464. 16:38completely agree AI infrastructure may
  465. 16:40be the cleaner business than model
  466. 16:41development. So, think of it this way.
  467. 16:44Google's making a
  468. 16:46decision similar to what Meta pushed out
  469. 16:50there and SpaceX did, which is maybe we
  470. 16:52should sell some of the compute since we
  471. 16:54can't use it all right now and our
  472. 16:55investors are getting angry with us
  473. 16:57because free cash flow is going
  474. 16:58negative. It's forcing you into
  475. 17:00businesses that have a guaranteed ROIC
  476. 17:03as opposed to chasing AGI. The problem
  477. 17:06is the talent wants to chase AGI. So you
  478. 17:09get Jeff Dean, you get Deis Sabis
  479. 17:11possibly leaving. We've hit an important
  480. 17:14inflection point now. And where this
  481. 17:16shows up is if talents leaving,
  482. 17:17multiples compress. Plain and simple. I
  483. 17:20I don't see any any other way around it
  484. 17:22unless Google can find some other
  485. 17:23business. But the businesses that they'd
  486. 17:25be creating that are new in my opinion
  487. 17:27would have to be from the frontier model
  488. 17:29side or at least that's my opinion to
  489. 17:31higher probability.
  490. 17:33Brad [clears throat] Gersonner gave a
  491. 17:34huge com huge talk on this. Again,
  492. 17:37Nvidia has financing limits, which is
  493. 17:39why they rolled out all these companies
  494. 17:41on there. Um, he talked about all of
  495. 17:44these different things. Frontier Labs
  496. 17:45are willing to overpay for compute
  497. 17:47because there's shortages. Four times,
  498. 17:49even five times market pricing to secure
  499. 17:52large-scale compute. It gives them a
  500. 17:54competitive advantage because other
  501. 17:56people can't get it. So, the buyers are
  502. 17:58concentrated because they have the
  503. 17:59revenues coming in and they want to
  504. 18:00secure the compute. And that's what he's
  505. 18:03saying. This is very concentrated. So no
  506. 18:05one's disagreeing that anthropic and
  507. 18:07open AI are the cyclical nature. At the
  508. 18:09same time, you have Nvidia doing a lot
  509. 18:11of the lending to make sure that these
  510. 18:12people can b buy their chips. It is
  511. 18:14circular.
  512. 18:16That's just the reality of what it is,
  513. 18:18guys. And unfortunately, AI is a
  514. 18:20completely different thing than anything
  515. 18:21you've seen. Dennis Sabas wants to leave
  516. 18:24Google, but he's staying. But they're
  517. 18:26predicting he could leave within a year.
  518. 18:28Again, it gets into the AGI side.
  519. 18:30Moonshots went through this in detail in
  520. 18:33two podcasts this week. One with Immad
  521. 18:36Mustach, one with a kid named Kush.
  522. 18:40I think Alex
  523. 18:43said it best. Those who can't compete on
  524. 18:46the frontier models go towards compute.
  525. 18:49That's what Meta, that's what XAI, and
  526. 18:52that's what Google did. And their models
  527. 18:54are way behind the frontier models. The
  528. 18:56frontier models are going to be
  529. 18:58important. Open source models are going
  530. 18:59to be important as well, but they may
  531. 19:02Google may be winning distribution. So
  532. 19:04they cover this as well. They talk about
  533. 19:05the Sergey Brin side. You guys can
  534. 19:07listen to it. I'll give you a couple
  535. 19:09summaries towards the end. But the main
  536. 19:11story is that Google's real business may
  537. 19:13be the cloud and it may be
  538. 19:14infrastructure. If that's the case, what
  539. 19:16multiple should they have if it's not
  540. 19:18Gemini? They may lose the model prestige
  541. 19:20race and still make a lot of money from
  542. 19:22AI infrastructure, but they may become
  543. 19:24the Saudi Arabia OPEC
  544. 19:27of compute while OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI,
  545. 19:30and others compete on the intelligence
  546. 19:31side.
  547. 19:34Google's talent brand has deteriorated.
  548. 19:36And this is where Kush comes in. He says
  549. 19:38that for his MIT cohort and younger
  550. 19:40builders, Google is no longer the dream
  551. 19:42destination. The dream destinations are
  552. 19:44now OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, and Frontier
  553. 19:46Labs. Unfortunately, that is the
  554. 19:48reality. So, these companies
  555. 19:52are different.
  556. 19:54This is SpaceX. This is a private
  557. 19:57company that's going public. This is
  558. 19:58another private company. These are the
  559. 19:59Frontier Labs.
  560. 20:02This is the way it was for Google and
  561. 20:03them before
  562. 20:05they invented a lot of the modern AI but
  563. 20:07the spiritual center of AI has moved
  564. 20:09elsewhere. This is an important dynamic
  565. 20:10and one of the reasons why in the
  566. 20:11hyperscalers I will continue to say I
  567. 20:14want to belong the receivers of the
  568. 20:15capital because the infrastructure
  569. 20:16demand is insatiable. These guys are
  570. 20:19proving it because Google is seeing
  571. 20:21talent leave because they don't have
  572. 20:22enough compute. If they had enough
  573. 20:24compute, they could do both the frontier
  574. 20:26models and
  575. 20:28the business side. But they can't. They
  576. 20:31don't have enough compute. So they have
  577. 20:33to allocate the resources, the scarce
  578. 20:35resources somewhere. Google committed
  579. 20:37roughly 200 billion capex this year to
  580. 20:39compute infrastructure. That capital
  581. 20:41earns a documented 30% ROIC is taxed
  582. 20:44advantage through accelerated
  583. 20:46depreciation is near certain demand
  584. 20:47because the whole industry is compute
  585. 20:49starved. Model development by contrast
  586. 20:51requires tens of billions with a high
  587. 20:53variance and no guaranteed return.
  588. 20:56Again, this all gets into the argument
  589. 20:58that was there. Now, I asked them to
  590. 21:00take the transcript of the
  591. 21:05Brad Gersonner one with the allimp pod
  592. 21:07and then the the moonshots one. So,
  593. 21:10these answers here and if you guys
  594. 21:12haven't done this before, take all the
  595. 21:14smart people and now you put them in one
  596. 21:16table and you ask them a question. what
  597. 21:19the Google shakeup reveals about compute
  598. 21:21talent incentives and multi-state that's
  599. 21:23the way that I like to go through these
  600. 21:24things and then I go through through the
  601. 21:26disruption side the syn synthesis for
  602. 21:30all large companies the durable assets
  603. 21:32of scale are capital physical
  604. 21:33infrastructure distribution and
  605. 21:35regulatory position the rational endgame
  606. 21:38which Google is stumbling into or
  607. 21:39engineering is the large company as
  608. 21:41capital allocator and infrastructure
  609. 21:43landlord to an ecosystem of
  610. 21:44missiondriven vehicles is partly owns
  611. 21:47companies that fight this trying to
  612. 21:48retain everything internally will lose
  613. 21:50the talent and keep the costs.
  614. 21:54I subscribe to that entire view.
  615. 21:58SpaceX semi analysis put this out. Um
  616. 22:02Elon shocked the world again on SpaceX
  617. 22:03first earning call saying 6 to8 gawatts
  618. 22:06of incremental data centers in 2027
  619. 22:08alone, possibly well above 10 gigs.
  620. 22:12Sounds impossible, but we believe it. We
  621. 22:14see SpaceX on track for about 10
  622. 22:16gigawatts by year end 2027.
  623. 22:19That's why SpaceX has value to the
  624. 22:22company. And again, you should view the
  625. 22:24other side as a call option. But Elon
  626. 22:26Musk has already proved that he can
  627. 22:28build data centers faster than anyone.
  628. 22:31And the gigawatts are worth a lot of
  629. 22:33money as we're seeing in terms of the
  630. 22:35compute prices.
  631. 22:38Um 80% of its output earmarked for
  632. 22:41space-based data centers. So again, he's
  633. 22:44doing a lot of stuff for terraab, which
  634. 22:47is what I brought this up for. Terraab
  635. 22:50is just confirmation of what's
  636. 22:52happening. Just look at this thing that
  637. 22:54he showed in terms of what the scale of
  638. 22:56it will look like. I mean, you're
  639. 22:58talking about him building something.
  640. 23:00Elon Musk knows where the compute side
  641. 23:03is and he's basically telling you I need
  642. 23:05to build this which looks like a Star
  643. 23:09Trek or a Star Wars situation and a
  644. 23:12massive amount of land. He needs this
  645. 23:15for the chips and in particular memory.
  646. 23:19SpaceX goes exclusive with Nvidia
  647. 23:21putting Ver Rubin GPUs in orbit. And
  648. 23:23again, this was part of the reason why
  649. 23:26when I talk about Nvidia and go through
  650. 23:28it, he said, "We think the Ver Rubin
  651. 23:30architecture is the best architecture.
  652. 23:31We're exclusive to Nvidia." Yet, he's
  653. 23:34building terra. So again, as you guys
  654. 23:37are listening to this and I'm picking
  655. 23:39out people that are just bearish on
  656. 23:40this, I want to remind you. So for raas
  657. 23:44this is the one pager that I'm now
  658. 23:46sending to people to go through on why
  659. 23:50my research is gear is geared towards
  660. 23:53people to understand what's happening in
  661. 23:55AI which to me cannot be covered by the
  662. 23:57street you certainly cannot get research
  663. 24:00that is put together
  664. 24:02in a way like this know what has changed
  665. 24:06and whether it matters to give all this
  666. 24:09information there's a hundred slides put
  667. 24:11together in this video today. I'm taking
  668. 24:13you on a journey to make you learn
  669. 24:15through data-driven stuff. You can go
  670. 24:17upload this anywhere you want. You can
  671. 24:19have your own agents bring it in. You
  672. 24:21can go check everything I'm saying. You
  673. 24:22can take the transcript. I do this every
  674. 24:25week. I come with a hundred plus slides
  675. 24:27every week of new information. I listen
  676. 24:30to podcast relentlessly. And this way
  677. 24:33you can go in and see what's changed on
  678. 24:35a real-time basis. You can't get that
  679. 24:36from the street. Know where it matters
  680. 24:39and when it is turning. I not only give
  681. 24:41you the names, but I spent the time, as
  682. 24:43I'm going to show you soon, every week
  683. 24:46doing this, telling you what I think the
  684. 24:47riskreward is in the market. And if you
  685. 24:49don't believe that, I'm going to show
  686. 24:51you how you can do it on your own, and
  687. 24:52give you a prompt to do it on your own.
  688. 24:54The agency stuff is important. I'm
  689. 24:56giving you prompts, which I'm giving you
  690. 24:57one this week, workflows, Excel files
  691. 25:00with all of the information on this,
  692. 25:02tutorials on how you can put it to work
  693. 25:04immediately, and hopefully things like
  694. 25:06the Jensen Senuong knowledge brain,
  695. 25:08which not only help you, but your kids,
  696. 25:10which I've heard from them. But next
  697. 25:13year,
  698. 25:15starting in September, the next
  699. 25:17constraint is not physical, it's
  700. 25:19financial, the guard rails, consumer
  701. 25:22agents, the settlement, it's stable
  702. 25:24coins. the tokenization. This is going
  703. 25:27to impact all of your portfolios,
  704. 25:30the bridge between traditional
  705. 25:31portfolios and unchanged assets. Your
  706. 25:32client's holdings are what moves onto
  707. 25:34these rails. You obviously have to learn
  708. 25:36all this stuff before it happens. Reach
  709. 25:39out to Mark.
  710. 25:41Mark will guide you. Now,
  711. 25:45I have said repeatedly in this that the
  712. 25:48economic structure is changing, the
  713. 25:50market structure is changing and the
  714. 25:52earning structure is changing.
  715. 25:55So earnings history, economics history,
  716. 25:57market history, all of this stuff is
  717. 25:59becoming useless. This is what this
  718. 26:00whole thing is focused on. There is a
  719. 26:02regime change that's happening. So if
  720. 26:04you're listening to economists saying
  721. 26:05the labor market is too strong, we have
  722. 26:07to raise rates. Inflation is too high,
  723. 26:09we have to raise rates. We are seeing a
  724. 26:11disconnect here that has never happened
  725. 26:12before. On the V side, the market
  726. 26:15structure side with AI agents, we are
  727. 26:16seeing tech momentum V up here while the
  728. 26:19NDX V barely budges.
  729. 26:23The earnings are growing rapidly.
  730. 26:25Companies are able to grow earnings
  731. 26:27because time is changing. This portfolio
  732. 26:30is meant to show all of that. And again,
  733. 26:33you're dealing with something that has
  734. 26:35gone up massively,
  735. 26:38had a consolidation, and has now bounced
  736. 26:40back and made back 50%. I've given you
  737. 26:43this in a 25 name, in a 10 name, in a
  738. 26:47100 name, and then Morgan Stanley gives
  739. 26:49you different ways to play it.
  740. 26:53In terms of the reason that the street
  741. 26:55can't cover it, the research firms are
  742. 26:57all built vertically. They're built with
  743. 27:00silos. There's a reason why I left
  744. 27:02Morgan Stanley in 2001. And it wasn't
  745. 27:04just because of 911. It was because 911
  746. 27:07just recognized that life is too short.
  747. 27:09And if my job as a 30-year-old who is
  748. 27:12now firing people for a living is what
  749. 27:14my life is going to be, I need to move
  750. 27:16on. They can't cover everything
  751. 27:19together. It's not possible. AI is not a
  752. 27:24sector. It goes across industrials,
  753. 27:26materials, chemicals, energy, power,
  754. 27:29semiconductors.
  755. 27:31Marll is not the same semiconductor as
  756. 27:33Infinion, as Invidian, as Intel. They're
  757. 27:37all different, guys, and you know that.
  758. 27:39So, my job is to show you the structure
  759. 27:42that's changed. The silos can't see
  760. 27:44across them. the speed we're moving at
  761. 27:48at least five times the speed of what
  762. 27:50the world used to look like which makes
  763. 27:52academics
  764. 27:54any back test anything on earnings every
  765. 27:56time we see earnings like this it's a
  766. 27:57bubble okay but we're not hiring anyone
  767. 28:00and there's usually hiring that's going
  768. 28:01on before a bubble we're overhiring at
  769. 28:03the bubbles
  770. 28:05synthesis averages destroy the signal
  771. 28:08too many people slow decision-m the
  772. 28:11friction that goes in big companies is
  773. 28:12the thing that is going to kill them
  774. 28:14relative to AI native companies. I am an
  775. 28:17A9 native company. Everything you're
  776. 28:18seeing right now is created in AI and it
  777. 28:21takes me a small amount of time to
  778. 28:23create it. This is just the easiest way
  779. 28:25to bring it to you. The organizational
  780. 28:28structure that makes a firm excellent at
  781. 28:30sector coverage is the structure that
  782. 28:32makes it slow at a cross- sector regime
  783. 28:34change. Those are the same property
  784. 28:36viewed from two directions. So if you're
  785. 28:38paying for research,
  786. 28:40I'm giving you something what at a
  787. 28:42minimum is different than what you're
  788. 28:44getting from other people. It doesn't
  789. 28:46mean it's better, but it's different.
  790. 28:47And I guarantee you it's coming with new
  791. 28:50stuff every week and new work every
  792. 28:51week. This is the proof of this is the
  793. 28:54NASDAQ returns year-to date 20%.
  794. 28:58The 100 name portfolio
  795. 29:01is up 46% 74 for the 25 name and 94 for
  796. 29:06the 10 names. And the 10 names are good
  797. 29:0810 names. They're highly correlated. In
  798. 29:09fact, if you want the 10 names, I showed
  799. 29:12this on the week the subscriber webinar
  800. 29:14this week. Equal weighted average return
  801. 29:16103. So I showed you 94. Um median
  802. 29:20return is 65. The best performer is up
  803. 29:23249%. The worst one is up 16 and a half.
  804. 29:27That's Nvidia. It's outperforming the
  805. 29:28S&P by 13%. Eight of the 10 are up more
  806. 29:30than 40%. The average return is about
  807. 29:337.9 times the S&P's year-to- date
  808. 29:36return. The median is five times. From a
  809. 29:38valuation perspective with where we are
  810. 29:40right now, the average forward PEG ratio
  811. 29:42is 0.8. The median is 081. This is for
  812. 29:45the 10 names despite being up 103% year
  813. 29:49to date. This is all happening because
  814. 29:51earnings growth is growing rapidly. The
  815. 29:54median next year forecast for earnings
  816. 29:55growth 40%. Seven of the 10 names have
  817. 29:58expected earnings growth of over 30. Why
  818. 30:00would you go hunting for names?
  819. 30:04This is going to continue because the
  820. 30:06demand for compute is insatiable. the
  821. 30:09multiples can compress. And when we go
  822. 30:12through this, again, my job in doing
  823. 30:15this as someone who thinks in riskreward
  824. 30:17is to turn more negative when it seems
  825. 30:21like things are due for a consolidation,
  826. 30:24navigating the AI midcycle slowdown on
  827. 30:27June 8th.
  828. 30:29So, here's the prompt, guys. Take my
  829. 30:32transcripts, as many as you want. I did
  830. 30:34everything from May on to just highlight
  831. 30:36to you guys something. and you just take
  832. 30:39the prompt. It'll be uploaded this
  833. 30:40weekend. Its job is analyze a
  834. 30:42chronological series of weekly market
  835. 30:44commentary transcripts to determine how
  836. 30:45the speaker's long-term market
  837. 30:47conviction, short-term outlook, and
  838. 30:48willingness to take investment risks are
  839. 30:50changing over time. This is an unbiased
  840. 30:52thing. You guys can do it on your own.
  841. 30:53It's a prompt that goes through, and I'm
  842. 30:54going to show you the results. You can
  843. 30:56do this not with mine, but I'm sure
  844. 30:57there's other podcasts you listen to on
  845. 30:59a weekly basis. Go measure their tone.
  846. 31:03All of this is supposed to do is to
  847. 31:05trans. So what it does is on a
  848. 31:07structural basis I'm staying bullish the
  849. 31:10entire time. On a tactical basis it's
  850. 31:13shifting. So I believe computer is
  851. 31:16insatiable. I want to be in this trade
  852. 31:17for the next three to five years. But I
  853. 31:19want to be tactical and make sure my
  854. 31:21risk is lower when the tactical level is
  855. 31:24low and the riskreward is low. Selective
  856. 31:27risk reduction in May. So this is the
  857. 31:29risk posture is saying this is the cycle
  858. 31:30stage. I said we're in parabolic
  859. 31:33exhaustion in memory. Selective risk
  860. 31:35reduction. You guys can go through
  861. 31:37defensive selective risk neutral
  862. 31:39consolidation.
  863. 31:42Here's just some of the stages. This
  864. 31:44what I said on May 17th. I've been
  865. 31:45scaling out of things. I'm effectively
  866. 31:47as far as I'm concerned out of
  867. 31:48everything. Definitely out of all
  868. 31:50micron. So, if people call me up and say
  869. 31:53they bought in at May 17th or they did
  870. 31:56whatever, I'm trying to give you guys a
  871. 31:59riskreward on what's happening and
  872. 32:02trying to go capital preservation or
  873. 32:04capital rotation. Rotation with a
  874. 32:06genuine reduction in portfolio beta. I
  875. 32:08was talking about the need for
  876. 32:10deleveraging. The d-risking goes from
  877. 32:13partial to near total in the crowded
  878. 32:15leg. So again, if you don't believe what
  879. 32:18I'm saying, here's what this will do for
  880. 32:20you. So this is taking all of those
  881. 32:23numbers and I overlaid my thematic
  882. 32:25portfolio. So for those of you
  883. 32:27particularly the asset managers who I
  884. 32:29speak to regularly.
  885. 32:31This is a way for you to incept and see
  886. 32:33how I'm doing. So I start going into a
  887. 32:36more cautious. This is a yellow light.
  888. 32:38This doesn't mean bail out of
  889. 32:39everything. This means I'm getting more
  890. 32:41cautious. I'm reducing my micron. The
  891. 32:44red side is when it's like stop putting
  892. 32:46anything to work right now. I'm getting
  893. 32:49more worried. I'm seeing signs. This is
  894. 32:51what happened in those meetings. Every
  895. 32:52one of these dots is one of the videos.
  896. 32:55It's the transcripts. Then I start
  897. 32:58becoming back to neutral. And then the
  898. 33:01first time that I start saying that I'm
  899. 33:02buying stuff, which is when Micron broke
  900. 33:04below 900 is in here. And now you start
  901. 33:08seeing the green dots where I'm starting
  902. 33:09to turn more positive. So back in here,
  903. 33:12what I was saying is we need a
  904. 33:13consolidation. I was showing you
  905. 33:15consolidations, price and time. Even
  906. 33:18here, I was still saying we will never
  907. 33:21be able to pick a bottom. So, those of
  908. 33:23you who want me to try and pick this or
  909. 33:26this, nobody can do that and certainly
  910. 33:29not me. And I don't try to do that. What
  911. 33:31I want to do is reduce risk in here and
  912. 33:34then add back when I think there's been
  913. 33:36enough panic and enough consolidation.
  914. 33:38So I'm looking for a combination of and
  915. 33:41this is what makes these green there is
  916. 33:43I you start hearing me say I think we're
  917. 33:45closer to capitulation. I'm seeing the
  918. 33:47VIX go higher. I'm seeing this go on.
  919. 33:48I'm hearing about this. Then situational
  920. 33:50awareness happens and then all of a
  921. 33:52sudden I give a very positive sign on
  922. 33:55things and say I believe that's it. The
  923. 33:57riskreward is now shifted. You can use
  924. 34:00that create your own. And during that
  925. 34:02entire consolidation, I was creating the
  926. 34:05consolidation playbook to try and put
  927. 34:07people in a position. Two, three weeks
  928. 34:10ago, the week right before situational
  929. 34:12awareness, I put something out said
  930. 34:14combing through the rubble to give you
  931. 34:16guys the ability to go find stuff. So,
  932. 34:18here's what's happened. We've now
  933. 34:21already made back over 50% of the fall.
  934. 34:24This was a situational awareness day.
  935. 34:26So, again, my goal is not to pick you
  936. 34:29tops and bottoms. It's actually to help
  937. 34:32you navigate through to stay with the
  938. 34:33structural trend to minimize losses and
  939. 34:36maximize gains. Plain and simple. That's
  940. 34:38the name of the game. You maximize
  941. 34:39gains. You try to find things with a
  942. 34:41riskreward in your favor where you feel
  943. 34:43like things have been cleansed. And
  944. 34:44that's why that 50-day rate of change
  945. 34:46and some of the tools that I showed in
  946. 34:47the subscriber webinar, which I'm
  947. 34:49working on, which are algorithms to time
  948. 34:51the risk side. So, I'm taking what I
  949. 34:53just showed you and I'm incorporating
  950. 34:55all of that stuff into an algorithm to
  951. 34:57hopefully give you a score to show you
  952. 34:59where I think the risk is. For those of
  953. 35:00you who've never gone, I have my website
  954. 35:02now. I just wanted to show you this for
  955. 35:04one reason. Okay, it's visserlabs.com.
  956. 35:06Great. Here's my logo. That's a linear
  957. 35:08move. That's an exponential move.
  958. 35:10Academic over here, entrepreneurs over
  959. 35:13here. The main thing about this, when
  960. 35:15you go to my website, I want you to go
  961. 35:16there. Took me one hour to build. Took
  962. 35:19me about a day to work with network
  963. 35:22solutions to get it up where I secured
  964. 35:25the domain of visserlabs.com.
  965. 35:28But it took me literally about an hour
  966. 35:31to build the website. So I'm telling you
  967. 35:34this because when Network Solutions did
  968. 35:36a scoring on it, it got a hundred out of
  969. 35:38a hundred.
  970. 35:40If you use AI and you use it properly,
  971. 35:44all I did was put prompts in to build
  972. 35:46the site. It's not perfect. It still
  973. 35:48needs some changes, but it works, guys.
  974. 35:51You can build stuff like that. And
  975. 35:52that's gets back. My job here is to help
  976. 35:54you guys prepare for the future, not
  977. 35:57just an in AI to navigate this, to deal
  978. 35:59with the the parabas and the bubbles and
  979. 36:02everything that happens, but it's also
  980. 36:03to make you smarter and how to use it
  981. 36:06and to prepare you for this. The next
  982. 36:08constraint is financial crypto rails for
  983. 36:10AI agents. I'm telling you, mark my
  984. 36:13words. You guys want to reach out in a
  985. 36:14year when I'm wrong, it's going to be
  986. 36:16because of that. So, one company that
  987. 36:18reported Figure.
  988. 36:21I talked about Figure a lot with Anthony
  989. 36:23Pompiano this week. I highly recommend
  990. 36:25watching the video this week. I think we
  991. 36:27got into some interesting topics, but
  992. 36:28more importantly, my brain was kind of
  993. 36:30firing today on a lot of different
  994. 36:32things involving time, which is where my
  995. 36:34focus is. I'm spending a lot more time
  996. 36:36with the crypto community. I'm speaking
  997. 36:38at more um places. I'll be speaking at
  998. 36:41the Pomp event. I'll be speaking at a
  999. 36:43Bitcoin Policy Institute event in DC. A
  1000. 36:46lot of things are going on. I probably
  1001. 36:47did four had four podcasts released this
  1002. 36:49week that had me speaking on it. We're
  1003. 36:52at the stage now, guys, where I'll be
  1004. 36:54doing more crypto stuff and you're going
  1005. 36:55to be seeing more stuff. So, go to the
  1006. 36:57site, go to the web page, but figure is
  1007. 37:01a perfect example of how this is
  1008. 37:02starting already. Figure released
  1009. 37:05earnings consumer loan marketplace
  1010. 37:07volume was up 4 was 4.3 billion, up 132%
  1011. 37:11year-over-year. The tokenized onchange
  1012. 37:14marketplace figure connect is now
  1013. 37:16expected to approach 70% of volume. We
  1014. 37:19are building the modern capital
  1015. 37:20marketplace amidst the paradigm shift in
  1016. 37:22the capital markets towards tokenization
  1017. 37:23and standardization. This is happening
  1018. 37:26now guys. This is why I built this. This
  1019. 37:29is my ecosystem
  1020. 37:31correlated with Bitcoin.
  1021. 37:34This is the year-to-day performance. So,
  1022. 37:36it's normalized. If I didn't normalize
  1023. 37:37it, this would be a direct overlay.
  1024. 37:39except you see the ecosystem is trading
  1025. 37:41better than here. I've added some more
  1026. 37:43names in here. I'm working with a bunch
  1027. 37:44of crypto people. If anyone wants to
  1028. 37:46reach out and they want to be involved
  1029. 37:47in this process, I'm enjoying doing
  1030. 37:49this. I need I have 10 verticals. I have
  1031. 37:52about four names to five names in each.
  1032. 37:54There's about 45 names in the index.
  1033. 37:57Bitcoin is a representation of the S&P
  1034. 37:59500 of the future. I will continue to
  1035. 38:00say that to anyone who wants to listen.
  1036. 38:02Figure is part of this.
  1037. 38:06Humans will be rounding error on the
  1038. 38:07internet. Bot traffic will exceed human
  1039. 38:09traffic by a factor of 1,000 within five
  1040. 38:11years. Elon Musk on cloudfire's forecast
  1041. 38:15AI agentic internet traffic will
  1042. 38:17obviously vastly exceed human usage.
  1043. 38:19Guys, go make money on that.
  1044. 38:21Transactions are going to happen. Stable
  1045. 38:24coin card spending volume surge another
  1046. 38:2616%. 16%.
  1047. 38:29You want to do an ARR on that?
  1048. 38:35US bank regulator opens national
  1049. 38:37charters to Bitcoin and crypto firms.
  1050. 38:40The SEC is about to cook while Congress
  1051. 38:41is stuck arguing over the Clarity Act.
  1052. 38:43Just like AI, nothing stops crypto,
  1053. 38:47guys. It will continue. Even if it's
  1054. 38:49not, the Clarity Act's not done. So, if
  1055. 38:51you're waiting for the Clarity Act or
  1056. 38:52it's thinking there's going to be a sell
  1057. 38:53the news moment on this, I'm telling
  1058. 38:56you, a year from now, we are going to
  1059. 38:57have a volume explosion on this stuff.
  1060. 38:59We don't know where all markets are
  1061. 39:01going to be, but I do know that volumes
  1062. 39:02will be expanding. financial guardrails
  1063. 39:05will be connected. I wrote this and
  1064. 39:06released it both on Substack this week's
  1065. 39:08and my subscriber website. I released it
  1066. 39:11because it's something I believe is
  1067. 39:13really important. This is around the yen
  1068. 39:16intervention.
  1069. 39:18It is a connection of everything
  1070. 39:20happening between AI mac uh the macro
  1071. 39:23side in terms of the debt, the deficit,
  1072. 39:26Japan's debt, the US debt. This goes
  1073. 39:28through all of it. It is meant to
  1074. 39:30realize that in my opinion, we will look
  1075. 39:32back on the week of situational
  1076. 39:33awareness where we had the dollar yen
  1077. 39:35intervention and we had Kevin Worsh
  1078. 39:37basically losing credibility according
  1079. 39:39to people
  1080. 39:41and Lewis Gau put this piece out this
  1081. 39:43week like me. He released it to
  1082. 39:45everyone. He does not do that. I don't
  1083. 39:48do that for my subscribers stuff, but
  1084. 39:50that's how important um the week was for
  1085. 39:52me. And then he gets into something
  1086. 39:54equally as important on the exact same
  1087. 39:56theme, which is why I wanted to show you
  1088. 39:57guys. But this is the most important
  1089. 40:00thing. And he said, "AI and stable coins
  1090. 40:02could reshape rather than simply destroy
  1091. 40:04dollar dominance." Gavka raises the
  1092. 40:05provocative idea of a compute dollar
  1093. 40:08replacing the petro dollar. That word
  1094. 40:10compute again. Insatiable demand for
  1095. 40:13compute, an insatiable race for both
  1096. 40:16compute and owning the crypto landscape.
  1097. 40:20AI is becoming more than a technology
  1098. 40:22story. computers evolving into an
  1099. 40:23industrial resource, a geopolitical
  1100. 40:25asset and potentially a pillar of the
  1101. 40:27monetary system. This is on the other
  1102. 40:30side of the debt world where we just
  1103. 40:32continue to do whatever is necessary to
  1104. 40:34keep the debt going and keep spending.
  1105. 40:36Bessence, whatever it takes, yenval mass
  1106. 40:38limited firepower. This is the reason
  1107. 40:40it's so important because they whether
  1108. 40:43it's yield curve control, whether it's
  1109. 40:45raising the cap on FEMA and them getting
  1110. 40:48invol, it doesn't really matter. Scott
  1111. 40:50is up against it. He didn't create this
  1112. 40:53problem, but they're trying to race out
  1113. 40:55of it. And the problem is they're not
  1114. 40:56getting the receipts and they're
  1115. 40:57spending their way out. So, the debt and
  1116. 40:59the deficit are just not getting better
  1117. 41:02fast enough, even if they are getting
  1118. 41:04better at all. Wall Street sees a bond
  1119. 41:06market angst and we're seeing that the
  1120. 41:09bond market just won't rally. We had a
  1121. 41:11week where the inflation data surprised
  1122. 41:13on the downside. Retail sales missed. We
  1123. 41:16had a week before where the jobs number
  1124. 41:18missed. And yet long-term yields are
  1125. 41:21just not coming down. They're not going
  1126. 41:22up either, but they're not coming down.
  1127. 41:25And the yen is also not moved much since
  1128. 41:28the intervention. And that's despite the
  1129. 41:30fact that now we're down to 31% for
  1130. 41:33September for Wor
  1131. 41:36and 80% for the BOJ. These numbers were
  1132. 41:39about 5050 each before the payroll
  1133. 41:42numbers. Now we're at here and yet we're
  1134. 41:45still not seeing any change. Now, I
  1135. 41:46happen to believe this is a mistake by
  1136. 41:48the markets and you should be buying the
  1137. 41:49the basement trade. You should be buying
  1138. 41:51gold, buying silver, buying Bitcoin. But
  1139. 41:53regardless of that until we start seeing
  1140. 41:55yields come down, it's just not
  1141. 41:57happening. So, the Worsh attacks
  1142. 42:00continue. And he's going to be speaking
  1143. 42:02at Jackson Hole. This came out from Bill
  1144. 42:05Dudley. Worsh implied that the PCE index
  1145. 42:09could be jettisoned as the Fed's primary
  1146. 42:11inflation metric as soon as January. Who
  1147. 42:14knows come after January he might say
  1148. 42:16about a strategy he said I suspect the
  1149. 42:18task force might have something that
  1150. 42:20the reason I wanted you guys to read
  1151. 42:22this this is academic this is exactly
  1152. 42:25the problem this is what Kevin Walsh
  1153. 42:27that's what that whole paper I wrote is
  1154. 42:29that the academic fed
  1155. 42:31does not exist you cannot focus on the
  1156. 42:33academic fed this be bank of America
  1157. 42:37after the CPI is still calling for three
  1158. 42:39right hikes this year
  1159. 42:42holding firm
  1160. 42:44At least Canro understands. Okay, so
  1161. 42:47here's what the Fed is saying. So this
  1162. 42:50is Fed speak chart overlaid with a
  1163. 42:53leading indicator which is the labor
  1164. 42:55plus inflation surprise index which has
  1165. 42:58now come down. We'll see if this goes.
  1166. 43:00But this is the reason why at this point
  1167. 43:03we haven't seen rates come down. So the
  1168. 43:04question is is Walsh going to give any
  1169. 43:06guidance or do anything that helps?
  1170. 43:09two-year rates have come down just
  1171. 43:11because the probabilities have come
  1172. 43:12down. They did break the 50-day moving
  1173. 43:15average after being above it for one of
  1174. 43:17the longest times in the last decade.
  1175. 43:19We'll see if it goes. But this is why I
  1176. 43:22wrote this. The academic Fed, a secular
  1177. 43:25regime shift, it's far more powerful. It
  1178. 43:27usually reflects dramatic changes in
  1179. 43:28monetary policy, fiscal policy, and
  1180. 43:30innovation. I believe we were in the
  1181. 43:31early stages of one. That is what the AI
  1182. 43:33trade is within that paper. Despite or
  1183. 43:37what your favorite Oh, this is inside my
  1184. 43:39uh other paper. Despite what your
  1185. 43:40favorite economist may tell you while
  1186. 43:42looking through a historical lens and
  1187. 43:43assuming the old relationships still
  1188. 43:45hold, something has changed. AI is
  1189. 43:47already disrupting the labor market and
  1190. 43:49the rise of AI agents is only beginning.
  1191. 43:52If you look at the labor market
  1192. 43:53contextually, it is very weak. That gets
  1193. 43:55back to the chart I showed you with the
  1194. 43:57S&P earnings relative to year-over-year
  1195. 44:00labor.
  1196. 44:02So again,
  1197. 44:03research firms are b built vertically.
  1198. 44:06Academics seldom change their view.
  1199. 44:09That's what entrepreneurs do. That's
  1200. 44:11what traders do. Hopefully that's the
  1201. 44:14way you view the work that I do. I like
  1202. 44:17to be bearish equally as bullish if I
  1203. 44:20think it's going to save me money. You
  1204. 44:22can't get away from this divergence. So
  1205. 44:24if you're an academic, highlight this
  1206. 44:26and tell me why this isn't a fair way to
  1207. 44:28look at things. The labor market is very
  1208. 44:30weak. while we are growing earnings at
  1209. 44:3232%. We've never seen anything like this
  1210. 44:34before and we're not coming out of a
  1211. 44:37recession. Here's more in the labor
  1212. 44:39market. I showed this last week. I just
  1213. 44:41want to re-emphasize it. I don't see
  1214. 44:43anyone doing this. This is the sixmonth
  1215. 44:45rate of change on the aggregate weekly
  1216. 44:46payrolls, which takes into account
  1217. 44:48weekly hours, the wage growth, plus a
  1218. 44:51number of job hires. A much broader and
  1219. 44:53better way of looking at the payroll
  1220. 44:54market. And we're at the weakest
  1221. 44:56six-month rate of change since 12, 2012,
  1222. 45:0014 years ago. Here is the job creation
  1223. 45:03right now for non-farm payrolls. X
  1224. 45:06healthcare and leisure. I don't like
  1225. 45:09doing X things, but I do want to show it
  1226. 45:11as these things are both related to old
  1227. 45:13people that the boomers who have money.
  1228. 45:16So health care and travel, that's great
  1229. 45:19except for one thing. Those are the jobs
  1230. 45:20that can't be replaced by AI.
  1231. 45:23So you have a very difficult situation.
  1232. 45:25Here's the non-farm payrolls again
  1233. 45:27year-over-year. So we're sitting down
  1234. 45:28here because
  1235. 45:30of AI agents.
  1236. 45:34This is the weekly ADP numbers. So we
  1237. 45:37had a jump here. This is when the Fed
  1238. 45:40speak changed. This is when you saw the
  1239. 45:43December rate hikes be built in. Well,
  1240. 45:45now the non-farm the ADP numbers just
  1241. 45:47keep weakening every week.
  1242. 45:50We're not adjusting anything. Here's the
  1243. 45:52labor force participation rate, which
  1244. 45:54just continues to go down. If we're
  1245. 45:56losing labor supply,
  1246. 45:59that's 10ear rates overlaid with it. Why
  1247. 46:01aren't wages going up? I saw someone
  1248. 46:04write something this week. Look at this.
  1249. 46:05An uptick. Are you kidding me? So, the
  1250. 46:08Atlanta the Atlanta Fed wage thing, this
  1251. 46:11is a hookup. The hourly earnings we just
  1252. 46:14saw from the uh non-farm payrolls
  1253. 46:17dropped to 3.2%.
  1254. 46:19The Atlanta Fed is at the same level it
  1255. 46:21was before 2020. So is the hourly
  1256. 46:24earnings. So is the quits rate.
  1257. 46:27Give me something that shows. We know
  1258. 46:29that if we're not getting wage growth
  1259. 46:30that is significant to offset the weekly
  1260. 46:32hours not increasing and the fact that
  1261. 46:34we're losing labor force participation
  1262. 46:36rate and we're not hiring any people. I
  1263. 46:39don't see why the Fed should be raising
  1264. 46:40rates especially not three times. I
  1265. 46:42don't even understand what that is. Um
  1266. 46:44if their mandate is labor and inflation.
  1267. 46:46So let's go through the second part of
  1268. 46:47it. the inflation data. So, we're going
  1269. 46:50to follow Bill Dudley on this PCE thing.
  1270. 46:52I think Kevin Worsh has it right. Here's
  1271. 46:55PCE all on the same scale, guys. PCE
  1272. 46:57core and here are the other core
  1273. 46:59numbers. Plus,
  1274. 47:02this doesn't include true inflation. So,
  1275. 47:04I left them out of it just because it's
  1276. 47:06way down here below two. all of these
  1277. 47:09other gauges, whether it's the sticky,
  1278. 47:12the Atlanta sticky CPI core, which is at
  1279. 47:152.5, the CPI core, which is 2.6, the
  1280. 47:19Dallas trim mean, which is 2.2. They
  1281. 47:22just made a change in the way they're
  1282. 47:23calculating it, 2.4, whatever. Cleveland
  1283. 47:252.7, only the PCE core, that one point
  1284. 47:29is up there. Sounds like it's not a good
  1285. 47:32one to use. Here are the inflation swaps
  1286. 47:34relative to core CPI, lower. Why aren't
  1287. 47:37these being talked about as mattering? I
  1288. 47:40took all of those ones I just showed you
  1289. 47:42on the prior screen, not the swaps, the
  1290. 47:45one before this, and I put them as one
  1291. 47:48index. That's what this number is. That
  1292. 47:50was taking those four and averaging them
  1293. 47:52together. That's 2.5. This is PCE core.
  1294. 47:54This is it over time. There's two things
  1295. 47:55to note. Number one, during the prior
  1296. 47:59from 1990
  1297. 48:01to 2020, the white line stayed above the
  1298. 48:05orange line all the time.
  1299. 48:09So if you normalize this and again
  1300. 48:11contextually this number should be down
  1301. 48:14here based on history, something has
  1302. 48:17changed in this calculation.
  1303. 48:19Kevin, you want me to work on the Fed,
  1304. 48:21give me a call. I'm happy to help you
  1305. 48:23guys with some of this stuff to make
  1306. 48:24sure we're not making decisions based on
  1307. 48:27uh people on Wall Street academics
  1308. 48:29telling you what you should do. Real
  1309. 48:31rates, the white line here. Real
  1310. 48:33two-year yields are up here. Here's the
  1311. 48:35debasement trade. This is gold, silver,
  1312. 48:36and Bitcoin. And the dollar, the dollar
  1313. 48:40has already responded. It was down again
  1314. 48:41today. This is before today. So, it's
  1315. 48:43already down here at new lows. Gold has
  1316. 48:46moved. Silver has moved. Bitcoin has not
  1317. 48:48moved yet. That's the green line here.
  1318. 48:49It's still sitting there. Eventually, it
  1319. 48:52will. I don't know when. We'll see.
  1320. 48:55Academics ask, "When does the evidence
  1321. 48:57tell us has happened under comparable
  1322. 49:00conditions?" Markets ask, "What's going
  1323. 49:02to happen before everyone else realizes
  1324. 49:03it?" This is the money-making side.
  1325. 49:05Entrepreneurs ask, "What becomes
  1326. 49:06possible now that wasn't possible
  1327. 49:08before?" That is the AI native world.
  1328. 49:10That is the world we speak about on
  1329. 49:12Visser Labs. Now, finally, China added
  1330. 49:1520 tons of gold in July, its largest
  1331. 49:17monthly purchase since October 2023.
  1332. 49:20China's central bank adds gold to Hong
  1333. 49:23Kong as well. And finally, the Bank of
  1334. 49:26Korea resumes gold investment after 13
  1335. 49:28years. Korea is back in the game. AI is
  1336. 49:31becoming more than a technology story.
  1337. 49:32Computers evolving into an industrial
  1338. 49:34resource, a geopolitical asset, and
  1339. 49:35potentially a pillar of the monetary
  1340. 49:37system. Thank you, Lewis Gav. Thank you
  1341. 49:39to all of you guys. I will see you maybe
  1342. 49:43from New York next week, maybe still
  1343. 49:45here. I hope it's still here, but I
  1344. 49:47don't know.

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