AI Is Changing Time: Those Who Can’t Compete, Compute — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00All right. Uh
- 0:03just a little bit of notes um because
- 0:06people have reached out. First of all,
- 0:08this um because this may be uh the last
- 0:12week that I'm in Maine. Uh not sure yet.
- 0:14I'm not sure whether I'll be recording
- 0:15from here or Maine next week, but uh
- 0:19I've been asked a lot of questions
- 0:21particularly about uh Maine. And I just
- 0:26want to give people who are getting to
- 0:27know me, have seen me on podcasts. Uh
- 0:30the reason I'm in Maine is because on
- 0:32September 11th, 2001, and we're
- 0:35approaching 25 years since September 1st
- 0:38or September 11. Um many of you know the
- 0:42best my best friend growing up and the
- 0:43best man at my wedding died 911. Um I
- 0:46ended up uh going back to Morgan
- 0:48Stanley. I was a partner there already.
- 0:50I was on the trading floor the day after
- 0:51when the markets were closed uh
- 0:54basically with other partners figuring
- 0:55out how we were going to operate and run
- 0:56business and uh very emotional obviously
- 1:00and I got a phone call. I had made an
- 1:01offer on a house in Maine because I had
- 1:03taken my daughter up there, my oldest
- 1:04daughter up to camp there. Fell in love
- 1:06with the place. Reminded me of my father
- 1:09um being the son of a a bluecollar
- 1:11worker and being the son of a core
- 1:14driller. Uh I just fell in love with the
- 1:15place. I did not like the shores uh of
- 1:19the area that I grew up in in New Jersey
- 1:21and definitely not the Hampton's my
- 1:23style. So, I fell in love with Maine. I
- 1:25bought a home in Kenny Bunkport. Um
- 1:27moved up there and I did the commute
- 1:29there for about 15 years. I've moved
- 1:31further north now to get away from the
- 1:34people that found Maine. Uh but in the
- 1:36background, people have asked about the
- 1:37painting. The painting is a reference to
- 1:40uh Shawn Christopher Shawn Kaitton who
- 1:42was a caner who died. Uh, I bought that
- 1:45painting after I moved to Maine. The
- 1:46wine bottle behind me is the bottle that
- 1:49I bought in Napa Valley, which is a
- 1:51remembrance of 911. I turned the bottle
- 1:53around this week. It has remembrance if
- 1:55you guys want to blow it up. You've got
- 1:56a Bernard King signed basketball there.
- 1:57You've got my Nicks hat on. Sean and I
- 1:59went to um many games. And then also
- 2:02behind me is a photo of him and I at a
- 2:05bar in the Bronx many hours after the
- 2:07Yankees won the World Series uh where
- 2:09Wade Bogs was riding the police horse.
- 2:12Uh Maine is a special place for me. I
- 2:15come up every year and since you guys
- 2:16asked about it, I just wanted to go
- 2:18through. Now on other notes for you guys
- 2:20that have reached out, number one, I
- 2:21will never reach out to you in WhatsApp
- 2:24offering you trades or doing anything. I
- 2:26will never do that in X. If you reach
- 2:28out to me in LinkedIn, I may or may not
- 2:30respond because I get hundreds of people
- 2:34reaching out. Same thing goes in my
- 2:36email. So don't take it personally if I
- 2:38don't respond. Don't I'm never reaching
- 2:41out to anyone. So, unless you're on the
- 2:43subscriber emails, you're not getting
- 2:45anything from me. I say that because
- 2:47there's AI bots everywhere and people
- 2:49impersonating me on every single
- 2:50location. I tried to get rid of them for
- 2:52a while. Didn't work. Um, on another
- 2:56note, people that are sending me stuff
- 2:57about what do you think about this
- 2:59Goldman Sachs person or this Morgan Sax
- 3:01person, the Gold Morgan Stanley person,
- 3:02they have a different view on XYZ. Guys,
- 3:04if you haven't learned anything watching
- 3:06this, I don't care about anyone's
- 3:07opinions. I care about everyone's
- 3:10opinions, but not anyone's opinions. I
- 3:12do my own work. I take all of the
- 3:15information that I can together and then
- 3:16I make a decision in a paramutual manner
- 3:20where I go through the odds and I'm
- 3:22trying to find things that people either
- 3:23don't agree with me on. So, I'm
- 3:25generally trying to be somewhat of a
- 3:27contrarian, but at the same point, I'm
- 3:29trying to find ideas that have good
- 3:30riskreward. I will always be an
- 3:32independent thinker. I will always be
- 3:34flexible on my views. So, I'm going to
- 3:35take you guys through that today cuz
- 3:37some of you said that I'm only positive.
- 3:39And if that's what you believe from the
- 3:41subscriber list and if you ended up
- 3:43buying the top of the market because you
- 3:45subscribed and said, "Oh, this is a bull
- 3:47market in something." I'm going to go
- 3:49through and show you how to take all of
- 3:50the transcripts I do and I'm going to
- 3:52give you a prompt to incorporate it into
- 3:54a way where you can take the
- 3:55information. I'm just speaking from the
- 3:57heart every single week. Guys, one thing
- 4:00I will say repeatedly, we are in a
- 4:02structurable market in the demand for
- 4:04compute. It is insatiable. And until I
- 4:07start hearing people that I respect on
- 4:08Wall Street start recognizing that there
- 4:11is no end ever coming up for the demand
- 4:13for compute, just like there is no food
- 4:16end. If we keep increasing people on the
- 4:19planet by a billion every year, that we
- 4:21will never catch up. The same thing for
- 4:23compute. It is impossible to get enough
- 4:26compute for all of the billions of
- 4:29agents that are coming online that are
- 4:31just starting. This is investing in
- 4:33compute. So, this whole video today is
- 4:36to some degree going to be about
- 4:38compute. And that's why I'm going to go
- 4:40back to the agenda side for this week.
- 4:43Um, my job is to help your business,
- 4:46whether you're an RAIA, whether you're
- 4:48an asset manager, help you with
- 4:50research, help you with independent
- 4:51thinking, but also get you ready to help
- 4:54your children adjust to this world
- 4:56because it's coming fast and it's going
- 4:57to be accelerating over the next
- 5:00certainly 24 months. Crypto is going to
- 5:02be a bigger part of the discussion. And
- 5:04if you have no knowledge of crypto or no
- 5:06understanding as to where it's going to
- 5:07be, you're going to suffer in the next
- 5:0812 months for sure. But certainly 24
- 5:11months, you're going to have to adapt.
- 5:13So we'll go through the recap. We'll go
- 5:14through the compute. We'll go through
- 5:15the token factories, Coreweave, Google,
- 5:17SpaceX, their commentary. The AI regime
- 5:21change, which has to do with the stuff
- 5:22that I'm doing. And probably most
- 5:25importantly, two things there. Number
- 5:27six. Number nine. Number six, we are
- 5:29going back to work, guys. The summer is
- 5:31over. I'm heading back to New York. I
- 5:33have spent a lot of time working. I've
- 5:35tried to create prompts. I've created a
- 5:37new website. There's a whole bunch of
- 5:38things I've done um with AI agents,
- 5:42which hopefully I've been able to give
- 5:43you guys some stuff that has helped. But
- 5:45the 2027 outlook is what I'm going to
- 5:47start focusing on because next year is
- 5:48about consumer agents. This year was
- 5:51about agents, the agentic economy
- 5:53opening. Next year is about consumer
- 5:54agents and what they need, which is the
- 5:56financial guardrails, which is where
- 5:57crypto shows in. Number nine, be an
- 5:59entrepreneur, not an academic. Academics
- 6:02will continue to cost you money. Anyone
- 6:05that is giving you history and analoges
- 6:07and blah blah blah, especially
- 6:10economists, I will take you through why
- 6:12that is not worth your time. S&P up 40
- 6:14basis points for the week.
- 6:16IWM up 1%. Q's up 1%. The JV AI thematic
- 6:23portfolio outperformed again, up 3% for
- 6:25the week. We made new all-time highs in
- 6:27most of the important indices and also
- 6:31around the globe. uh the earnings and
- 6:35again I'll continue to say it earnings
- 6:38growth 51% for the S&P sales growth
- 6:41probably the more important number up
- 6:4315% year-over-year
- 6:47I can't remember a time when we were in
- 6:49a mature part of the economic cycle and
- 6:50global UPS is something like 47%
- 6:53year-over-year everywhere you look EPS
- 6:56has been moving smartly higher
- 6:58this is the critical thing if you start
- 7:00believing in people that tell you this
- 7:01is is an isolated bubble to a few tech
- 7:03names in the US. It's not true. You've
- 7:06got the whole globe breaking out in
- 7:07terms of earnings per share, and that's
- 7:08because time is changing. You're going
- 7:11to hear me talk about this a lot. This
- 7:13is going to provoke thought in you guys.
- 7:14I will have a very important Substack
- 7:16coming out. For you Substack readers,
- 7:19the time is coming where I'm going to go
- 7:20down to about once a month in my papers
- 7:22because I'm entering in the crypto side
- 7:24and most of the stuff is shifting to the
- 7:26subscriber site for my crypto work. Um,
- 7:30this is the MSCI World Bank index.
- 7:35This is parabolic and going higher. This
- 7:37is a reflection of what's happening with
- 7:39AI. All of these charts are a reflection
- 7:41of what's happening with AI. It is a
- 7:44reflection of what's happening around
- 7:45the globe. AI is disrupting all academic
- 7:48research that you know. All the things
- 7:51that you've believed in are breaking
- 7:52down. And the reason is because
- 7:54productivity is happening. more and more
- 7:57of the smarter people with inside the
- 7:59Fed that I read and the IMF and the
- 8:01they're starting to recognize now again
- 8:03it's got to be the younger people the
- 8:05productivity boom is happening you have
- 8:08to put it into context though earnings
- 8:10are up 30% year-over-year in the S&P
- 8:13forecast for this year this is our job
- 8:16hiring zero
- 8:19economists tell you the labor market is
- 8:21strong they want the Fed to raise rates
- 8:22this is all BS the labor market relative
- 8:26to the way things move over time. We
- 8:29should be hiring lots of people because
- 8:31we're growing earnings, not coming out
- 8:33of a recession like these periods at a
- 8:35record pace.
- 8:37So why aren't we hiring people? When I
- 8:39was at Morgan Stanley, if we had
- 8:40earnings growing rapidly, we'd be hiring
- 8:42people. That's what you did. You threw
- 8:43more money at more people. Not happening
- 8:46anymore. And the reason is because we've
- 8:48got enterprise agents which are coming.
- 8:50Not having started yet. They're coming.
- 8:53This does not mean we'll be losing
- 8:55millions of jobs. But what it does mean
- 8:56is we have job losses already. X
- 8:59healthcare. We're already seeing small
- 9:02job losses. That is productivity. We
- 9:04don't need as many people. We're seeing
- 9:06businesses set up. Startups are
- 9:09happening. We're getting more business
- 9:11formations. Jordy has a business.
- 9:14All of this stuff. I don't work now for
- 9:16a Fortune 500 company and I don't work
- 9:18for a country a company with 100 people.
- 9:20Started my own business. So consumer
- 9:23agents are coming next year. This is the
- 9:25token needs for them. This is what
- 9:27they're paid in. This is what they eat.
- 9:29This is what they need to survive. They
- 9:31work 247
- 9:33365.
- 9:35They're shrinking time. So when you say
- 9:37year overyear for anything now, that is
- 9:40a human thing. Agents don't sleep.
- 9:43Agents don't go to the bathroom. Agents
- 9:45don't go to lunch. Agents don't go to
- 9:47the pantry to flirt. Agents don't do any
- 9:50of that stuff. So what you're left with
- 9:52is token consumption is growing rapidly
- 9:55and time is shrinking. So in the case of
- 9:58year-over-year, the reason we're seeing
- 10:00earnings grow so fast, the reason
- 10:01nominal GDP at this point is at least
- 10:04growing where it is because the math on
- 10:06that is not correct, you have to focus
- 10:08on the profit margins and you have to
- 10:09focus on the earnings growth. Time is
- 10:12shrinking. So we're now doing
- 10:14effectively two times what it used to
- 10:16take in one year and then eventually
- 10:17it'll be three times and four times and
- 10:19five times. And the reason is because
- 10:21the agents are working all the time. Now
- 10:25this doesn't mean that things go
- 10:27parabolic in terms of the earnings. What
- 10:29it means is the earnings continue to
- 10:30outpace the prices because private
- 10:32companies are doing a lot of this. They
- 10:35are going to steal from the public
- 10:36companies. We'll spend more time on
- 10:38this. If you don't believe compute is
- 10:40insatiable
- 10:42right now, all of you know what coding
- 10:43agents are. At least you should. If you
- 10:45don't and don't know what I just said
- 10:47about 247365,
- 10:49well then we're going to get into
- 10:50finally them actually being deployed.
- 10:52They haven't even been deployed yet. We
- 10:54just have the capability of using them.
- 10:56Enterprise agents become persistent
- 10:58digital labor. This will be happening
- 11:00next year. Consumer agents will be
- 11:02following in the latter part of next
- 11:03year. This is your Jarvis. This is
- 11:05people ordering things for you. This is
- 11:07like your AMX uh uh assistant who does
- 11:13everything for you. this is coming and
- 11:15they'll be doing things while you sleep.
- 11:17They'll be booking your travel. They'll
- 11:18be ex orderering things for you.
- 11:20Everything will be happening
- 11:21instantaneously and we'll start reducing
- 11:23the friction in the economy. Then you're
- 11:25going to get into autonomous driving and
- 11:27for that you need a world a world model
- 11:30problem. We need a hell of a lot more
- 11:32compute for that. We need a hell of a
- 11:34lot more compute for humanoids. These
- 11:36are all coming every single year. These
- 11:38innovations used to take decades to
- 11:40come, but now they're happening in such
- 11:41a compressed amount of time because of
- 11:43intelligence.
- 11:44The numbers are staggering. Right now
- 11:46we're in this part. So this year we
- 11:48needed 10 to 100 times for the coding
- 11:50agents relative to last year for
- 11:52chatbots. That's why everything went
- 11:54parabolic. Look at the stepup function.
- 11:57Another 10 times. Then another 10 times.
- 12:01It never ends guys. The amount of
- 12:03compute we need never ends. We are
- 12:07transitioning from systems that give
- 12:08instant cash responses chatbot to
- 12:11systems that plan, reason and simulate
- 12:12outcomes before taking an action. This
- 12:14is so complex. This is demos sabas. We
- 12:17need magnitudes more compute. That's why
- 12:19Jensen Yuan comes out and says, and he
- 12:21only said this at the beginning of this
- 12:23year, it's going to be AI factories, the
- 12:25new infrastructure intelligence. We need
- 12:26this is what we need to produce. This is
- 12:28why there's compute futures. This is why
- 12:30everything you're hearing is about, oh,
- 12:32we need compute.
- 12:34We need it endlessly to feed the new
- 12:37billions of employees on the planet.
- 12:40Jensen Yuong says comput is the new
- 12:42economy. He said this at the Morgan
- 12:43Stanley event in March.
- 12:47Nvidia this week, AI factory computing
- 12:50investable asset class. The reason we
- 12:51know this is a fact is because Apollo,
- 12:54Black Rockck, Blackstone, Brookfield,
- 12:55Goldman Sachs, KKR to establish AI
- 12:58compute infrastructure financing
- 13:00platforms to mobilize over half a
- 13:02trillion dollars of third party capital
- 13:05to build the stuff that Nvidia needs.
- 13:07They don't want to use their balance
- 13:07sheet anymore. And people all signed up
- 13:10to do this. Morgan Stanley to facilitate
- 13:12$1.5 trillion in infrastructure
- 13:13initiative.
- 13:15The capital's there. Alphabet raises 25
- 13:18billion this past week. Intel announces
- 13:20a 15 billion stock offering for a
- 13:23company that was worth less than a
- 13:25hundred billion a year ago and they
- 13:28raised it to 20 billion in the stock
- 13:31traded higher than where the issuance
- 13:33was. China is in the same race which
- 13:36means the compute spending is happening
- 13:38around the globe. You can go read the
- 13:39little yellow lines but China and the US
- 13:42are in a race. The government is still
- 13:44trying to make sure that we don't lose
- 13:46to China. So, exempts data center bonds
- 13:48from key securization rules to make sure
- 13:51that it's easier for data center owners
- 13:54to sell asset back securities
- 13:55potentially open the door for more debt
- 13:57sales.
- 14:00If you're looking for data center
- 14:01delays, they're minor. We're still
- 14:03moving forward on everything on the data
- 14:05center side. Despite what you're reading
- 14:06in the media, there are delays. I've
- 14:08shown you guys my work on this. It's
- 14:11already built into the way things are
- 14:12being done. Nothing is a new surprise.
- 14:15All of these are going on. They will be
- 14:17delayed to some degree, but the capacity
- 14:19is still coming online. It's not as fast
- 14:22as it otherwise would be, but to be
- 14:23honest with you, it doesn't really
- 14:24matter because we don't have enough
- 14:27memory anyway. So, all of these delays
- 14:30are actually good because then we're not
- 14:32over buying things or at least overusing
- 14:35things before we get it in. So, the
- 14:37delays allow the revenues to go a little
- 14:40bit further out even though they've
- 14:41committed to them. coreweave this week.
- 14:44Very important in terms of going
- 14:46through. You don't have to believe
- 14:47anything they they say. You can go
- 14:49through it, but again, I've got tons of
- 14:50data that supports everything they say.
- 14:52I think the most important thing to go
- 14:54against things that you've heard from
- 14:55Michael Bur and from Jim Chados in
- 14:57particular, which I'll call out on this
- 15:00because they don't ever turn around and
- 15:02say, you know what, we were wrong. They
- 15:03just keep saying, "No, this is this is
- 15:05BS." They never change their mind ever.
- 15:07It never there's no like it's a 70%
- 15:10chance. It's always this is what's going
- 15:12to happen. So if you pay for that at
- 15:14least hopefully you pay for my stuff as
- 15:16well where I'm going to spend time where
- 15:17at this point I'm saying demand is
- 15:19insatiable.
- 15:21The A1 A100 is being contracted all the
- 15:24way to 2029. This was introduced in
- 15:262020. They're saying they're completely
- 15:29sold out. You can go through the
- 15:30physical infrastructure itself has
- 15:32scarcity value. So I've talked about you
- 15:34want to invest in scarcity. So they were
- 15:36originally saying two to three years may
- 15:37be realistic. They're talking about it
- 15:39being six to nine years now. New
- 15:42generations will be gone because the old
- 15:44one, we don't have enough data centers
- 15:46being built that we can replace it
- 15:48because the demand is greater than the
- 15:49supply. It's like walking into a
- 15:51supermarket. If they didn't have any
- 15:54food but cans of sardines, you would
- 15:56immediately love cans of sardines.
- 15:59Even if that was the last thing you
- 16:00wanted, that's what's happening is the
- 16:02demand is too great. we have too many
- 16:05agents buying or wanting and demanding
- 16:07too many tokens. You guys can go through
- 16:09the rest of this. The reality is it's
- 16:12just the fact that on every level
- 16:14whether it's pricing whether it's the
- 16:15stuff we hear from them what we hear
- 16:16from SpaceX what we hear from Google
- 16:18what we see from Google on that point
- 16:20with Google the article the uh podcast
- 16:24to listen to this week Google's AI brain
- 16:25drain from
- 16:27the all-in podcast they talk a lot about
- 16:30Google's reorganization framed it as a
- 16:32capital allocation shift I'm going to
- 16:33get into that a little bit more um
- 16:36two-horse race according to David Saxs
- 16:38completely agree AI infrastructure may
- 16:40be the cleaner business than model
- 16:41development. So, think of it this way.
- 16:44Google's making a
- 16:46decision similar to what Meta pushed out
- 16:50there and SpaceX did, which is maybe we
- 16:52should sell some of the compute since we
- 16:54can't use it all right now and our
- 16:55investors are getting angry with us
- 16:57because free cash flow is going
- 16:58negative. It's forcing you into
- 17:00businesses that have a guaranteed ROIC
- 17:03as opposed to chasing AGI. The problem
- 17:06is the talent wants to chase AGI. So you
- 17:09get Jeff Dean, you get Deis Sabis
- 17:11possibly leaving. We've hit an important
- 17:14inflection point now. And where this
- 17:16shows up is if talents leaving,
- 17:17multiples compress. Plain and simple. I
- 17:20I don't see any any other way around it
- 17:22unless Google can find some other
- 17:23business. But the businesses that they'd
- 17:25be creating that are new in my opinion
- 17:27would have to be from the frontier model
- 17:29side or at least that's my opinion to
- 17:31higher probability.
- 17:33Brad [clears throat] Gersonner gave a
- 17:34huge com huge talk on this. Again,
- 17:37Nvidia has financing limits, which is
- 17:39why they rolled out all these companies
- 17:41on there. Um, he talked about all of
- 17:44these different things. Frontier Labs
- 17:45are willing to overpay for compute
- 17:47because there's shortages. Four times,
- 17:49even five times market pricing to secure
- 17:52large-scale compute. It gives them a
- 17:54competitive advantage because other
- 17:56people can't get it. So, the buyers are
- 17:58concentrated because they have the
- 17:59revenues coming in and they want to
- 18:00secure the compute. And that's what he's
- 18:03saying. This is very concentrated. So no
- 18:05one's disagreeing that anthropic and
- 18:07open AI are the cyclical nature. At the
- 18:09same time, you have Nvidia doing a lot
- 18:11of the lending to make sure that these
- 18:12people can b buy their chips. It is
- 18:14circular.
- 18:16That's just the reality of what it is,
- 18:18guys. And unfortunately, AI is a
- 18:20completely different thing than anything
- 18:21you've seen. Dennis Sabas wants to leave
- 18:24Google, but he's staying. But they're
- 18:26predicting he could leave within a year.
- 18:28Again, it gets into the AGI side.
- 18:30Moonshots went through this in detail in
- 18:33two podcasts this week. One with Immad
- 18:36Mustach, one with a kid named Kush.
- 18:40I think Alex
- 18:43said it best. Those who can't compete on
- 18:46the frontier models go towards compute.
- 18:49That's what Meta, that's what XAI, and
- 18:52that's what Google did. And their models
- 18:54are way behind the frontier models. The
- 18:56frontier models are going to be
- 18:58important. Open source models are going
- 18:59to be important as well, but they may
- 19:02Google may be winning distribution. So
- 19:04they cover this as well. They talk about
- 19:05the Sergey Brin side. You guys can
- 19:07listen to it. I'll give you a couple
- 19:09summaries towards the end. But the main
- 19:11story is that Google's real business may
- 19:13be the cloud and it may be
- 19:14infrastructure. If that's the case, what
- 19:16multiple should they have if it's not
- 19:18Gemini? They may lose the model prestige
- 19:20race and still make a lot of money from
- 19:22AI infrastructure, but they may become
- 19:24the Saudi Arabia OPEC
- 19:27of compute while OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI,
- 19:30and others compete on the intelligence
- 19:31side.
- 19:34Google's talent brand has deteriorated.
- 19:36And this is where Kush comes in. He says
- 19:38that for his MIT cohort and younger
- 19:40builders, Google is no longer the dream
- 19:42destination. The dream destinations are
- 19:44now OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, and Frontier
- 19:46Labs. Unfortunately, that is the
- 19:48reality. So, these companies
- 19:52are different.
- 19:54This is SpaceX. This is a private
- 19:57company that's going public. This is
- 19:58another private company. These are the
- 19:59Frontier Labs.
- 20:02This is the way it was for Google and
- 20:03them before
- 20:05they invented a lot of the modern AI but
- 20:07the spiritual center of AI has moved
- 20:09elsewhere. This is an important dynamic
- 20:10and one of the reasons why in the
- 20:11hyperscalers I will continue to say I
- 20:14want to belong the receivers of the
- 20:15capital because the infrastructure
- 20:16demand is insatiable. These guys are
- 20:19proving it because Google is seeing
- 20:21talent leave because they don't have
- 20:22enough compute. If they had enough
- 20:24compute, they could do both the frontier
- 20:26models and
- 20:28the business side. But they can't. They
- 20:31don't have enough compute. So they have
- 20:33to allocate the resources, the scarce
- 20:35resources somewhere. Google committed
- 20:37roughly 200 billion capex this year to
- 20:39compute infrastructure. That capital
- 20:41earns a documented 30% ROIC is taxed
- 20:44advantage through accelerated
- 20:46depreciation is near certain demand
- 20:47because the whole industry is compute
- 20:49starved. Model development by contrast
- 20:51requires tens of billions with a high
- 20:53variance and no guaranteed return.
- 20:56Again, this all gets into the argument
- 20:58that was there. Now, I asked them to
- 21:00take the transcript of the
- 21:05Brad Gersonner one with the allimp pod
- 21:07and then the the moonshots one. So,
- 21:10these answers here and if you guys
- 21:12haven't done this before, take all the
- 21:14smart people and now you put them in one
- 21:16table and you ask them a question. what
- 21:19the Google shakeup reveals about compute
- 21:21talent incentives and multi-state that's
- 21:23the way that I like to go through these
- 21:24things and then I go through through the
- 21:26disruption side the syn synthesis for
- 21:30all large companies the durable assets
- 21:32of scale are capital physical
- 21:33infrastructure distribution and
- 21:35regulatory position the rational endgame
- 21:38which Google is stumbling into or
- 21:39engineering is the large company as
- 21:41capital allocator and infrastructure
- 21:43landlord to an ecosystem of
- 21:44missiondriven vehicles is partly owns
- 21:47companies that fight this trying to
- 21:48retain everything internally will lose
- 21:50the talent and keep the costs.
- 21:54I subscribe to that entire view.
- 21:58SpaceX semi analysis put this out. Um
- 22:02Elon shocked the world again on SpaceX
- 22:03first earning call saying 6 to8 gawatts
- 22:06of incremental data centers in 2027
- 22:08alone, possibly well above 10 gigs.
- 22:12Sounds impossible, but we believe it. We
- 22:14see SpaceX on track for about 10
- 22:16gigawatts by year end 2027.
- 22:19That's why SpaceX has value to the
- 22:22company. And again, you should view the
- 22:24other side as a call option. But Elon
- 22:26Musk has already proved that he can
- 22:28build data centers faster than anyone.
- 22:31And the gigawatts are worth a lot of
- 22:33money as we're seeing in terms of the
- 22:35compute prices.
- 22:38Um 80% of its output earmarked for
- 22:41space-based data centers. So again, he's
- 22:44doing a lot of stuff for terraab, which
- 22:47is what I brought this up for. Terraab
- 22:50is just confirmation of what's
- 22:52happening. Just look at this thing that
- 22:54he showed in terms of what the scale of
- 22:56it will look like. I mean, you're
- 22:58talking about him building something.
- 23:00Elon Musk knows where the compute side
- 23:03is and he's basically telling you I need
- 23:05to build this which looks like a Star
- 23:09Trek or a Star Wars situation and a
- 23:12massive amount of land. He needs this
- 23:15for the chips and in particular memory.
- 23:19SpaceX goes exclusive with Nvidia
- 23:21putting Ver Rubin GPUs in orbit. And
- 23:23again, this was part of the reason why
- 23:26when I talk about Nvidia and go through
- 23:28it, he said, "We think the Ver Rubin
- 23:30architecture is the best architecture.
- 23:31We're exclusive to Nvidia." Yet, he's
- 23:34building terra. So again, as you guys
- 23:37are listening to this and I'm picking
- 23:39out people that are just bearish on
- 23:40this, I want to remind you. So for raas
- 23:44this is the one pager that I'm now
- 23:46sending to people to go through on why
- 23:50my research is gear is geared towards
- 23:53people to understand what's happening in
- 23:55AI which to me cannot be covered by the
- 23:57street you certainly cannot get research
- 24:00that is put together
- 24:02in a way like this know what has changed
- 24:06and whether it matters to give all this
- 24:09information there's a hundred slides put
- 24:11together in this video today. I'm taking
- 24:13you on a journey to make you learn
- 24:15through data-driven stuff. You can go
- 24:17upload this anywhere you want. You can
- 24:19have your own agents bring it in. You
- 24:21can go check everything I'm saying. You
- 24:22can take the transcript. I do this every
- 24:25week. I come with a hundred plus slides
- 24:27every week of new information. I listen
- 24:30to podcast relentlessly. And this way
- 24:33you can go in and see what's changed on
- 24:35a real-time basis. You can't get that
- 24:36from the street. Know where it matters
- 24:39and when it is turning. I not only give
- 24:41you the names, but I spent the time, as
- 24:43I'm going to show you soon, every week
- 24:46doing this, telling you what I think the
- 24:47riskreward is in the market. And if you
- 24:49don't believe that, I'm going to show
- 24:51you how you can do it on your own, and
- 24:52give you a prompt to do it on your own.
- 24:54The agency stuff is important. I'm
- 24:56giving you prompts, which I'm giving you
- 24:57one this week, workflows, Excel files
- 25:00with all of the information on this,
- 25:02tutorials on how you can put it to work
- 25:04immediately, and hopefully things like
- 25:06the Jensen Senuong knowledge brain,
- 25:08which not only help you, but your kids,
- 25:10which I've heard from them. But next
- 25:13year,
- 25:15starting in September, the next
- 25:17constraint is not physical, it's
- 25:19financial, the guard rails, consumer
- 25:22agents, the settlement, it's stable
- 25:24coins. the tokenization. This is going
- 25:27to impact all of your portfolios,
- 25:30the bridge between traditional
- 25:31portfolios and unchanged assets. Your
- 25:32client's holdings are what moves onto
- 25:34these rails. You obviously have to learn
- 25:36all this stuff before it happens. Reach
- 25:39out to Mark.
- 25:41Mark will guide you. Now,
- 25:45I have said repeatedly in this that the
- 25:48economic structure is changing, the
- 25:50market structure is changing and the
- 25:52earning structure is changing.
- 25:55So earnings history, economics history,
- 25:57market history, all of this stuff is
- 25:59becoming useless. This is what this
- 26:00whole thing is focused on. There is a
- 26:02regime change that's happening. So if
- 26:04you're listening to economists saying
- 26:05the labor market is too strong, we have
- 26:07to raise rates. Inflation is too high,
- 26:09we have to raise rates. We are seeing a
- 26:11disconnect here that has never happened
- 26:12before. On the V side, the market
- 26:15structure side with AI agents, we are
- 26:16seeing tech momentum V up here while the
- 26:19NDX V barely budges.
- 26:23The earnings are growing rapidly.
- 26:25Companies are able to grow earnings
- 26:27because time is changing. This portfolio
- 26:30is meant to show all of that. And again,
- 26:33you're dealing with something that has
- 26:35gone up massively,
- 26:38had a consolidation, and has now bounced
- 26:40back and made back 50%. I've given you
- 26:43this in a 25 name, in a 10 name, in a
- 26:47100 name, and then Morgan Stanley gives
- 26:49you different ways to play it.
- 26:53In terms of the reason that the street
- 26:55can't cover it, the research firms are
- 26:57all built vertically. They're built with
- 27:00silos. There's a reason why I left
- 27:02Morgan Stanley in 2001. And it wasn't
- 27:04just because of 911. It was because 911
- 27:07just recognized that life is too short.
- 27:09And if my job as a 30-year-old who is
- 27:12now firing people for a living is what
- 27:14my life is going to be, I need to move
- 27:16on. They can't cover everything
- 27:19together. It's not possible. AI is not a
- 27:24sector. It goes across industrials,
- 27:26materials, chemicals, energy, power,
- 27:29semiconductors.
- 27:31Marll is not the same semiconductor as
- 27:33Infinion, as Invidian, as Intel. They're
- 27:37all different, guys, and you know that.
- 27:39So, my job is to show you the structure
- 27:42that's changed. The silos can't see
- 27:44across them. the speed we're moving at
- 27:48at least five times the speed of what
- 27:50the world used to look like which makes
- 27:52academics
- 27:54any back test anything on earnings every
- 27:56time we see earnings like this it's a
- 27:57bubble okay but we're not hiring anyone
- 28:00and there's usually hiring that's going
- 28:01on before a bubble we're overhiring at
- 28:03the bubbles
- 28:05synthesis averages destroy the signal
- 28:08too many people slow decision-m the
- 28:11friction that goes in big companies is
- 28:12the thing that is going to kill them
- 28:14relative to AI native companies. I am an
- 28:17A9 native company. Everything you're
- 28:18seeing right now is created in AI and it
- 28:21takes me a small amount of time to
- 28:23create it. This is just the easiest way
- 28:25to bring it to you. The organizational
- 28:28structure that makes a firm excellent at
- 28:30sector coverage is the structure that
- 28:32makes it slow at a cross- sector regime
- 28:34change. Those are the same property
- 28:36viewed from two directions. So if you're
- 28:38paying for research,
- 28:40I'm giving you something what at a
- 28:42minimum is different than what you're
- 28:44getting from other people. It doesn't
- 28:46mean it's better, but it's different.
- 28:47And I guarantee you it's coming with new
- 28:50stuff every week and new work every
- 28:51week. This is the proof of this is the
- 28:54NASDAQ returns year-to date 20%.
- 28:58The 100 name portfolio
- 29:01is up 46% 74 for the 25 name and 94 for
- 29:06the 10 names. And the 10 names are good
- 29:0810 names. They're highly correlated. In
- 29:09fact, if you want the 10 names, I showed
- 29:12this on the week the subscriber webinar
- 29:14this week. Equal weighted average return
- 29:16103. So I showed you 94. Um median
- 29:20return is 65. The best performer is up
- 29:23249%. The worst one is up 16 and a half.
- 29:27That's Nvidia. It's outperforming the
- 29:28S&P by 13%. Eight of the 10 are up more
- 29:30than 40%. The average return is about
- 29:337.9 times the S&P's year-to- date
- 29:36return. The median is five times. From a
- 29:38valuation perspective with where we are
- 29:40right now, the average forward PEG ratio
- 29:42is 0.8. The median is 081. This is for
- 29:45the 10 names despite being up 103% year
- 29:49to date. This is all happening because
- 29:51earnings growth is growing rapidly. The
- 29:54median next year forecast for earnings
- 29:55growth 40%. Seven of the 10 names have
- 29:58expected earnings growth of over 30. Why
- 30:00would you go hunting for names?
- 30:04This is going to continue because the
- 30:06demand for compute is insatiable. the
- 30:09multiples can compress. And when we go
- 30:12through this, again, my job in doing
- 30:15this as someone who thinks in riskreward
- 30:17is to turn more negative when it seems
- 30:21like things are due for a consolidation,
- 30:24navigating the AI midcycle slowdown on
- 30:27June 8th.
- 30:29So, here's the prompt, guys. Take my
- 30:32transcripts, as many as you want. I did
- 30:34everything from May on to just highlight
- 30:36to you guys something. and you just take
- 30:39the prompt. It'll be uploaded this
- 30:40weekend. Its job is analyze a
- 30:42chronological series of weekly market
- 30:44commentary transcripts to determine how
- 30:45the speaker's long-term market
- 30:47conviction, short-term outlook, and
- 30:48willingness to take investment risks are
- 30:50changing over time. This is an unbiased
- 30:52thing. You guys can do it on your own.
- 30:53It's a prompt that goes through, and I'm
- 30:54going to show you the results. You can
- 30:56do this not with mine, but I'm sure
- 30:57there's other podcasts you listen to on
- 30:59a weekly basis. Go measure their tone.
- 31:03All of this is supposed to do is to
- 31:05trans. So what it does is on a
- 31:07structural basis I'm staying bullish the
- 31:10entire time. On a tactical basis it's
- 31:13shifting. So I believe computer is
- 31:16insatiable. I want to be in this trade
- 31:17for the next three to five years. But I
- 31:19want to be tactical and make sure my
- 31:21risk is lower when the tactical level is
- 31:24low and the riskreward is low. Selective
- 31:27risk reduction in May. So this is the
- 31:29risk posture is saying this is the cycle
- 31:30stage. I said we're in parabolic
- 31:33exhaustion in memory. Selective risk
- 31:35reduction. You guys can go through
- 31:37defensive selective risk neutral
- 31:39consolidation.
- 31:42Here's just some of the stages. This
- 31:44what I said on May 17th. I've been
- 31:45scaling out of things. I'm effectively
- 31:47as far as I'm concerned out of
- 31:48everything. Definitely out of all
- 31:50micron. So, if people call me up and say
- 31:53they bought in at May 17th or they did
- 31:56whatever, I'm trying to give you guys a
- 31:59riskreward on what's happening and
- 32:02trying to go capital preservation or
- 32:04capital rotation. Rotation with a
- 32:06genuine reduction in portfolio beta. I
- 32:08was talking about the need for
- 32:10deleveraging. The d-risking goes from
- 32:13partial to near total in the crowded
- 32:15leg. So again, if you don't believe what
- 32:18I'm saying, here's what this will do for
- 32:20you. So this is taking all of those
- 32:23numbers and I overlaid my thematic
- 32:25portfolio. So for those of you
- 32:27particularly the asset managers who I
- 32:29speak to regularly.
- 32:31This is a way for you to incept and see
- 32:33how I'm doing. So I start going into a
- 32:36more cautious. This is a yellow light.
- 32:38This doesn't mean bail out of
- 32:39everything. This means I'm getting more
- 32:41cautious. I'm reducing my micron. The
- 32:44red side is when it's like stop putting
- 32:46anything to work right now. I'm getting
- 32:49more worried. I'm seeing signs. This is
- 32:51what happened in those meetings. Every
- 32:52one of these dots is one of the videos.
- 32:55It's the transcripts. Then I start
- 32:58becoming back to neutral. And then the
- 33:01first time that I start saying that I'm
- 33:02buying stuff, which is when Micron broke
- 33:04below 900 is in here. And now you start
- 33:08seeing the green dots where I'm starting
- 33:09to turn more positive. So back in here,
- 33:12what I was saying is we need a
- 33:13consolidation. I was showing you
- 33:15consolidations, price and time. Even
- 33:18here, I was still saying we will never
- 33:21be able to pick a bottom. So, those of
- 33:23you who want me to try and pick this or
- 33:26this, nobody can do that and certainly
- 33:29not me. And I don't try to do that. What
- 33:31I want to do is reduce risk in here and
- 33:34then add back when I think there's been
- 33:36enough panic and enough consolidation.
- 33:38So I'm looking for a combination of and
- 33:41this is what makes these green there is
- 33:43I you start hearing me say I think we're
- 33:45closer to capitulation. I'm seeing the
- 33:47VIX go higher. I'm seeing this go on.
- 33:48I'm hearing about this. Then situational
- 33:50awareness happens and then all of a
- 33:52sudden I give a very positive sign on
- 33:55things and say I believe that's it. The
- 33:57riskreward is now shifted. You can use
- 34:00that create your own. And during that
- 34:02entire consolidation, I was creating the
- 34:05consolidation playbook to try and put
- 34:07people in a position. Two, three weeks
- 34:10ago, the week right before situational
- 34:12awareness, I put something out said
- 34:14combing through the rubble to give you
- 34:16guys the ability to go find stuff. So,
- 34:18here's what's happened. We've now
- 34:21already made back over 50% of the fall.
- 34:24This was a situational awareness day.
- 34:26So, again, my goal is not to pick you
- 34:29tops and bottoms. It's actually to help
- 34:32you navigate through to stay with the
- 34:33structural trend to minimize losses and
- 34:36maximize gains. Plain and simple. That's
- 34:38the name of the game. You maximize
- 34:39gains. You try to find things with a
- 34:41riskreward in your favor where you feel
- 34:43like things have been cleansed. And
- 34:44that's why that 50-day rate of change
- 34:46and some of the tools that I showed in
- 34:47the subscriber webinar, which I'm
- 34:49working on, which are algorithms to time
- 34:51the risk side. So, I'm taking what I
- 34:53just showed you and I'm incorporating
- 34:55all of that stuff into an algorithm to
- 34:57hopefully give you a score to show you
- 34:59where I think the risk is. For those of
- 35:00you who've never gone, I have my website
- 35:02now. I just wanted to show you this for
- 35:04one reason. Okay, it's visserlabs.com.
- 35:06Great. Here's my logo. That's a linear
- 35:08move. That's an exponential move.
- 35:10Academic over here, entrepreneurs over
- 35:13here. The main thing about this, when
- 35:15you go to my website, I want you to go
- 35:16there. Took me one hour to build. Took
- 35:19me about a day to work with network
- 35:22solutions to get it up where I secured
- 35:25the domain of visserlabs.com.
- 35:28But it took me literally about an hour
- 35:31to build the website. So I'm telling you
- 35:34this because when Network Solutions did
- 35:36a scoring on it, it got a hundred out of
- 35:38a hundred.
- 35:40If you use AI and you use it properly,
- 35:44all I did was put prompts in to build
- 35:46the site. It's not perfect. It still
- 35:48needs some changes, but it works, guys.
- 35:51You can build stuff like that. And
- 35:52that's gets back. My job here is to help
- 35:54you guys prepare for the future, not
- 35:57just an in AI to navigate this, to deal
- 35:59with the the parabas and the bubbles and
- 36:02everything that happens, but it's also
- 36:03to make you smarter and how to use it
- 36:06and to prepare you for this. The next
- 36:08constraint is financial crypto rails for
- 36:10AI agents. I'm telling you, mark my
- 36:13words. You guys want to reach out in a
- 36:14year when I'm wrong, it's going to be
- 36:16because of that. So, one company that
- 36:18reported Figure.
- 36:21I talked about Figure a lot with Anthony
- 36:23Pompiano this week. I highly recommend
- 36:25watching the video this week. I think we
- 36:27got into some interesting topics, but
- 36:28more importantly, my brain was kind of
- 36:30firing today on a lot of different
- 36:32things involving time, which is where my
- 36:34focus is. I'm spending a lot more time
- 36:36with the crypto community. I'm speaking
- 36:38at more um places. I'll be speaking at
- 36:41the Pomp event. I'll be speaking at a
- 36:43Bitcoin Policy Institute event in DC. A
- 36:46lot of things are going on. I probably
- 36:47did four had four podcasts released this
- 36:49week that had me speaking on it. We're
- 36:52at the stage now, guys, where I'll be
- 36:54doing more crypto stuff and you're going
- 36:55to be seeing more stuff. So, go to the
- 36:57site, go to the web page, but figure is
- 37:01a perfect example of how this is
- 37:02starting already. Figure released
- 37:05earnings consumer loan marketplace
- 37:07volume was up 4 was 4.3 billion, up 132%
- 37:11year-over-year. The tokenized onchange
- 37:14marketplace figure connect is now
- 37:16expected to approach 70% of volume. We
- 37:19are building the modern capital
- 37:20marketplace amidst the paradigm shift in
- 37:22the capital markets towards tokenization
- 37:23and standardization. This is happening
- 37:26now guys. This is why I built this. This
- 37:29is my ecosystem
- 37:31correlated with Bitcoin.
- 37:34This is the year-to-day performance. So,
- 37:36it's normalized. If I didn't normalize
- 37:37it, this would be a direct overlay.
- 37:39except you see the ecosystem is trading
- 37:41better than here. I've added some more
- 37:43names in here. I'm working with a bunch
- 37:44of crypto people. If anyone wants to
- 37:46reach out and they want to be involved
- 37:47in this process, I'm enjoying doing
- 37:49this. I need I have 10 verticals. I have
- 37:52about four names to five names in each.
- 37:54There's about 45 names in the index.
- 37:57Bitcoin is a representation of the S&P
- 37:59500 of the future. I will continue to
- 38:00say that to anyone who wants to listen.
- 38:02Figure is part of this.
- 38:06Humans will be rounding error on the
- 38:07internet. Bot traffic will exceed human
- 38:09traffic by a factor of 1,000 within five
- 38:11years. Elon Musk on cloudfire's forecast
- 38:15AI agentic internet traffic will
- 38:17obviously vastly exceed human usage.
- 38:19Guys, go make money on that.
- 38:21Transactions are going to happen. Stable
- 38:24coin card spending volume surge another
- 38:2616%. 16%.
- 38:29You want to do an ARR on that?
- 38:35US bank regulator opens national
- 38:37charters to Bitcoin and crypto firms.
- 38:40The SEC is about to cook while Congress
- 38:41is stuck arguing over the Clarity Act.
- 38:43Just like AI, nothing stops crypto,
- 38:47guys. It will continue. Even if it's
- 38:49not, the Clarity Act's not done. So, if
- 38:51you're waiting for the Clarity Act or
- 38:52it's thinking there's going to be a sell
- 38:53the news moment on this, I'm telling
- 38:56you, a year from now, we are going to
- 38:57have a volume explosion on this stuff.
- 38:59We don't know where all markets are
- 39:01going to be, but I do know that volumes
- 39:02will be expanding. financial guardrails
- 39:05will be connected. I wrote this and
- 39:06released it both on Substack this week's
- 39:08and my subscriber website. I released it
- 39:11because it's something I believe is
- 39:13really important. This is around the yen
- 39:16intervention.
- 39:18It is a connection of everything
- 39:20happening between AI mac uh the macro
- 39:23side in terms of the debt, the deficit,
- 39:26Japan's debt, the US debt. This goes
- 39:28through all of it. It is meant to
- 39:30realize that in my opinion, we will look
- 39:32back on the week of situational
- 39:33awareness where we had the dollar yen
- 39:35intervention and we had Kevin Worsh
- 39:37basically losing credibility according
- 39:39to people
- 39:41and Lewis Gau put this piece out this
- 39:43week like me. He released it to
- 39:45everyone. He does not do that. I don't
- 39:48do that for my subscribers stuff, but
- 39:50that's how important um the week was for
- 39:52me. And then he gets into something
- 39:54equally as important on the exact same
- 39:56theme, which is why I wanted to show you
- 39:57guys. But this is the most important
- 40:00thing. And he said, "AI and stable coins
- 40:02could reshape rather than simply destroy
- 40:04dollar dominance." Gavka raises the
- 40:05provocative idea of a compute dollar
- 40:08replacing the petro dollar. That word
- 40:10compute again. Insatiable demand for
- 40:13compute, an insatiable race for both
- 40:16compute and owning the crypto landscape.
- 40:20AI is becoming more than a technology
- 40:22story. computers evolving into an
- 40:23industrial resource, a geopolitical
- 40:25asset and potentially a pillar of the
- 40:27monetary system. This is on the other
- 40:30side of the debt world where we just
- 40:32continue to do whatever is necessary to
- 40:34keep the debt going and keep spending.
- 40:36Bessence, whatever it takes, yenval mass
- 40:38limited firepower. This is the reason
- 40:40it's so important because they whether
- 40:43it's yield curve control, whether it's
- 40:45raising the cap on FEMA and them getting
- 40:48invol, it doesn't really matter. Scott
- 40:50is up against it. He didn't create this
- 40:53problem, but they're trying to race out
- 40:55of it. And the problem is they're not
- 40:56getting the receipts and they're
- 40:57spending their way out. So, the debt and
- 40:59the deficit are just not getting better
- 41:02fast enough, even if they are getting
- 41:04better at all. Wall Street sees a bond
- 41:06market angst and we're seeing that the
- 41:09bond market just won't rally. We had a
- 41:11week where the inflation data surprised
- 41:13on the downside. Retail sales missed. We
- 41:16had a week before where the jobs number
- 41:18missed. And yet long-term yields are
- 41:21just not coming down. They're not going
- 41:22up either, but they're not coming down.
- 41:25And the yen is also not moved much since
- 41:28the intervention. And that's despite the
- 41:30fact that now we're down to 31% for
- 41:33September for Wor
- 41:36and 80% for the BOJ. These numbers were
- 41:39about 5050 each before the payroll
- 41:42numbers. Now we're at here and yet we're
- 41:45still not seeing any change. Now, I
- 41:46happen to believe this is a mistake by
- 41:48the markets and you should be buying the
- 41:49the basement trade. You should be buying
- 41:51gold, buying silver, buying Bitcoin. But
- 41:53regardless of that until we start seeing
- 41:55yields come down, it's just not
- 41:57happening. So, the Worsh attacks
- 42:00continue. And he's going to be speaking
- 42:02at Jackson Hole. This came out from Bill
- 42:05Dudley. Worsh implied that the PCE index
- 42:09could be jettisoned as the Fed's primary
- 42:11inflation metric as soon as January. Who
- 42:14knows come after January he might say
- 42:16about a strategy he said I suspect the
- 42:18task force might have something that
- 42:20the reason I wanted you guys to read
- 42:22this this is academic this is exactly
- 42:25the problem this is what Kevin Walsh
- 42:27that's what that whole paper I wrote is
- 42:29that the academic fed
- 42:31does not exist you cannot focus on the
- 42:33academic fed this be bank of America
- 42:37after the CPI is still calling for three
- 42:39right hikes this year
- 42:42holding firm
- 42:44At least Canro understands. Okay, so
- 42:47here's what the Fed is saying. So this
- 42:50is Fed speak chart overlaid with a
- 42:53leading indicator which is the labor
- 42:55plus inflation surprise index which has
- 42:58now come down. We'll see if this goes.
- 43:00But this is the reason why at this point
- 43:03we haven't seen rates come down. So the
- 43:04question is is Walsh going to give any
- 43:06guidance or do anything that helps?
- 43:09two-year rates have come down just
- 43:11because the probabilities have come
- 43:12down. They did break the 50-day moving
- 43:15average after being above it for one of
- 43:17the longest times in the last decade.
- 43:19We'll see if it goes. But this is why I
- 43:22wrote this. The academic Fed, a secular
- 43:25regime shift, it's far more powerful. It
- 43:27usually reflects dramatic changes in
- 43:28monetary policy, fiscal policy, and
- 43:30innovation. I believe we were in the
- 43:31early stages of one. That is what the AI
- 43:33trade is within that paper. Despite or
- 43:37what your favorite Oh, this is inside my
- 43:39uh other paper. Despite what your
- 43:40favorite economist may tell you while
- 43:42looking through a historical lens and
- 43:43assuming the old relationships still
- 43:45hold, something has changed. AI is
- 43:47already disrupting the labor market and
- 43:49the rise of AI agents is only beginning.
- 43:52If you look at the labor market
- 43:53contextually, it is very weak. That gets
- 43:55back to the chart I showed you with the
- 43:57S&P earnings relative to year-over-year
- 44:00labor.
- 44:02So again,
- 44:03research firms are b built vertically.
- 44:06Academics seldom change their view.
- 44:09That's what entrepreneurs do. That's
- 44:11what traders do. Hopefully that's the
- 44:14way you view the work that I do. I like
- 44:17to be bearish equally as bullish if I
- 44:20think it's going to save me money. You
- 44:22can't get away from this divergence. So
- 44:24if you're an academic, highlight this
- 44:26and tell me why this isn't a fair way to
- 44:28look at things. The labor market is very
- 44:30weak. while we are growing earnings at
- 44:3232%. We've never seen anything like this
- 44:34before and we're not coming out of a
- 44:37recession. Here's more in the labor
- 44:39market. I showed this last week. I just
- 44:41want to re-emphasize it. I don't see
- 44:43anyone doing this. This is the sixmonth
- 44:45rate of change on the aggregate weekly
- 44:46payrolls, which takes into account
- 44:48weekly hours, the wage growth, plus a
- 44:51number of job hires. A much broader and
- 44:53better way of looking at the payroll
- 44:54market. And we're at the weakest
- 44:56six-month rate of change since 12, 2012,
- 45:0014 years ago. Here is the job creation
- 45:03right now for non-farm payrolls. X
- 45:06healthcare and leisure. I don't like
- 45:09doing X things, but I do want to show it
- 45:11as these things are both related to old
- 45:13people that the boomers who have money.
- 45:16So health care and travel, that's great
- 45:19except for one thing. Those are the jobs
- 45:20that can't be replaced by AI.
- 45:23So you have a very difficult situation.
- 45:25Here's the non-farm payrolls again
- 45:27year-over-year. So we're sitting down
- 45:28here because
- 45:30of AI agents.
- 45:34This is the weekly ADP numbers. So we
- 45:37had a jump here. This is when the Fed
- 45:40speak changed. This is when you saw the
- 45:43December rate hikes be built in. Well,
- 45:45now the non-farm the ADP numbers just
- 45:47keep weakening every week.
- 45:50We're not adjusting anything. Here's the
- 45:52labor force participation rate, which
- 45:54just continues to go down. If we're
- 45:56losing labor supply,
- 45:59that's 10ear rates overlaid with it. Why
- 46:01aren't wages going up? I saw someone
- 46:04write something this week. Look at this.
- 46:05An uptick. Are you kidding me? So, the
- 46:08Atlanta the Atlanta Fed wage thing, this
- 46:11is a hookup. The hourly earnings we just
- 46:14saw from the uh non-farm payrolls
- 46:17dropped to 3.2%.
- 46:19The Atlanta Fed is at the same level it
- 46:21was before 2020. So is the hourly
- 46:24earnings. So is the quits rate.
- 46:27Give me something that shows. We know
- 46:29that if we're not getting wage growth
- 46:30that is significant to offset the weekly
- 46:32hours not increasing and the fact that
- 46:34we're losing labor force participation
- 46:36rate and we're not hiring any people. I
- 46:39don't see why the Fed should be raising
- 46:40rates especially not three times. I
- 46:42don't even understand what that is. Um
- 46:44if their mandate is labor and inflation.
- 46:46So let's go through the second part of
- 46:47it. the inflation data. So, we're going
- 46:50to follow Bill Dudley on this PCE thing.
- 46:52I think Kevin Worsh has it right. Here's
- 46:55PCE all on the same scale, guys. PCE
- 46:57core and here are the other core
- 46:59numbers. Plus,
- 47:02this doesn't include true inflation. So,
- 47:04I left them out of it just because it's
- 47:06way down here below two. all of these
- 47:09other gauges, whether it's the sticky,
- 47:12the Atlanta sticky CPI core, which is at
- 47:152.5, the CPI core, which is 2.6, the
- 47:19Dallas trim mean, which is 2.2. They
- 47:22just made a change in the way they're
- 47:23calculating it, 2.4, whatever. Cleveland
- 47:252.7, only the PCE core, that one point
- 47:29is up there. Sounds like it's not a good
- 47:32one to use. Here are the inflation swaps
- 47:34relative to core CPI, lower. Why aren't
- 47:37these being talked about as mattering? I
- 47:40took all of those ones I just showed you
- 47:42on the prior screen, not the swaps, the
- 47:45one before this, and I put them as one
- 47:48index. That's what this number is. That
- 47:50was taking those four and averaging them
- 47:52together. That's 2.5. This is PCE core.
- 47:54This is it over time. There's two things
- 47:55to note. Number one, during the prior
- 47:59from 1990
- 48:01to 2020, the white line stayed above the
- 48:05orange line all the time.
- 48:09So if you normalize this and again
- 48:11contextually this number should be down
- 48:14here based on history, something has
- 48:17changed in this calculation.
- 48:19Kevin, you want me to work on the Fed,
- 48:21give me a call. I'm happy to help you
- 48:23guys with some of this stuff to make
- 48:24sure we're not making decisions based on
- 48:27uh people on Wall Street academics
- 48:29telling you what you should do. Real
- 48:31rates, the white line here. Real
- 48:33two-year yields are up here. Here's the
- 48:35debasement trade. This is gold, silver,
- 48:36and Bitcoin. And the dollar, the dollar
- 48:40has already responded. It was down again
- 48:41today. This is before today. So, it's
- 48:43already down here at new lows. Gold has
- 48:46moved. Silver has moved. Bitcoin has not
- 48:48moved yet. That's the green line here.
- 48:49It's still sitting there. Eventually, it
- 48:52will. I don't know when. We'll see.
- 48:55Academics ask, "When does the evidence
- 48:57tell us has happened under comparable
- 49:00conditions?" Markets ask, "What's going
- 49:02to happen before everyone else realizes
- 49:03it?" This is the money-making side.
- 49:05Entrepreneurs ask, "What becomes
- 49:06possible now that wasn't possible
- 49:08before?" That is the AI native world.
- 49:10That is the world we speak about on
- 49:12Visser Labs. Now, finally, China added
- 49:1520 tons of gold in July, its largest
- 49:17monthly purchase since October 2023.
- 49:20China's central bank adds gold to Hong
- 49:23Kong as well. And finally, the Bank of
- 49:26Korea resumes gold investment after 13
- 49:28years. Korea is back in the game. AI is
- 49:31becoming more than a technology story.
- 49:32Computers evolving into an industrial
- 49:34resource, a geopolitical asset, and
- 49:35potentially a pillar of the monetary
- 49:37system. Thank you, Lewis Gav. Thank you
- 49:39to all of you guys. I will see you maybe
- 49:43from New York next week, maybe still
- 49:45here. I hope it's still here, but I
- 49:47don't know.
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