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【大チャンス到来!?】次世代テンバガー銘柄候補！？AIブームが落ち着いた今、密かに世界中の政府とプロの投資家が大量に購入している『レアメタル銘柄』について徹底解説 — Transcript

by 金丸【元ブラック企業会社員の投資・経済】 · 11,137 words · 1,764 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00While AI semiconductor stocks have seen
0:02incredible growth in the recent market,
0:04institutional investors are now turning
0:07their attention to hidden ten-bagger
0:09candidates poised for a sudden surge.
0:11Where are the wealthy moving their
0:14assets? Hello, I'm Kanamaru. I have a
0:17sudden question for you. Would you
0:19rather invest in stocks with high
0:22growth potential, long-term assets like
0:24gold or the S&P 500, or stocks that
0:26institutional investors are eyeing but
0:29retail investors have yet to discover?
0:32Actually, it’s said that there is a
0:34sector that satisfies all three of
0:36these conditions. That would be rare
0:38metal stocks, which are quietly gaining
0:40attention among professional
0:42institutional investors. You might have
0:45heard the name, or think I'm just
0:47exaggerating, but looking at recent
0:49market trends and global developments,
0:51the future of rare metals is clear;
0:54many investors are focusing on them due
0:56to geopolitical and macroeconomic risks
0:59. By the way, rare metals are said to
1:02be the world's most practical minerals,
1:04supporting modern industry from
1:06semiconductors in phones, PCs, and AI,
1:09to the robots that power Japan's
1:11world-class factories. That’s why the
1:14Japanese government is fully committed;
1:17the growth strategy announced in July
1:20includes rare metals in a 370 trillion
1:22yen investment plan through 2040, and
1:25the METI budget from August allocates
1:28680 billion yen for securing critical
1:30minerals. They are pouring this massive
1:33amount of capital directly into
1:34Japan’s manufacturing industry.
1:36It’s not just Japan; capital flow
1:38into rare metals is increasing globally
1:41, with the U.S. moving to stockpile 12
1:43billion dollars in rare metals and
1:46announcing over 2 billion dollars in
1:48support this past August. Not only that
1:51, but from President Trump's
1:52inauguration in 2025 to the present, a
1:54total of over 160 rare metal-related
1:56projects have been announced, with
1:58investments totaling nearly 40 billion
2:01dollars (about 6 trillion yen). Given
2:03these developments, it is becoming a
2:04hot topic among professional
2:06institutional investors that
2:07governments around the world are trying
2:09to make rare metals the "second gold."
2:11What that means is that gold doesn't
2:13just have a role in accessories or
2:15industrial products; it also serves as
2:17a safe-haven asset to prepare for
2:19emergencies. In this way, aren't
2:21countries also trying to keep physical
2:23gold on hand to prepare for the future?
2:25Rare metals are used by companies to
2:27manufacture products, but beyond that,
2:28their scarcity makes them a trump card
2:30to secure in times of crisis. That kind
2:32of movement is gaining momentum. In
2:34fact, President Trump has also
2:35recognized them as a strategic resource
2:37and is calling for stockpiling. And
2:38here is what is extremely important for
2:41us investors: you can't just dig up
2:42rare metals and use them as is. The ore
2:44and scrap must be processed to extract
2:46raw materials, transported to factories
2:48, and refined into components like
2:50blades, drills, or semiconductors
2:52before they can finally be used in
2:53smartphones, AI, robotics, or defense
2:55equipment. In other words, the
2:57companies that profit aren't just the
2:59ones mining the rare metals. What you
3:00should really be aiming for isn't the
3:02theme of rare metals itself, but the
3:04companies that become essential within
3:06that massive supply chain. So, as
3:08always, based on the truth I’ve
3:10uncovered by thoroughly analyzing
3:11primary sources like Bloomberg, Reuters
3:14, METI reports, and corporate earnings,
3:16I will explain with my own subjective,
3:18hard-hitting perspective why rare metal
3:21stocks are on the rise, the unique
3:23value only Japanese companies hold in
3:25the market, the nine US-Japan stocks
3:27poised for major moves, and what
3:29individual Japanese investors should do
3:31moving forward. And this video isn't
3:33just a simple stock recommendation
3:35video. In the first half of this video,
3:38I will explain why the stocks I'm
3:39introducing are worth your attention
3:41and what you need to do to catch the
3:43next stock market wave, providing
3:45essential knowledge to grow your future
3:47assets that will set the stage for the
3:49stock recommendations in the second
3:50half. This is a complete guide to
3:52next-generation multi-bagger candidates
3:54in rare metals that will give your
3:56investment literacy a significant
3:58two-level boost. On this channel, I,
4:00Kanamaru—a finance geek who went from
4:03being a debt-ridden salaryman at a
4:05toxic company to growing 40 million yen
4:08in assets through NISA, mutual funds,
4:10and individual US/Japan stocks—break
4:13down primary source information from
4:15Bloomberg, Reuters, the WSJ, and
4:17institutional reports into simple terms
4:20for those worried about retirement or
4:22those too busy to manage their
4:25high-yield portfolios. I am aiming for
4:27100,000 subscribers, so please smash
4:29that subscribe button and settle in to
4:31watch the rest of the video. So today,
4:34I’ll be providing a comprehensive,
4:36jam-packed guide to nine Japanese and
4:37US rare metal stocks poised for major
4:39price shifts, based on the Japanese
4:41government's strategy and the movement
4:43of these vital resources across the US,
4:45Japanese, and Chinese economies. I
4:47previously released a video on rare
4:49earth stocks, and this video serves as
4:51the latest follow-up to that report.
4:54While rare earths have been the talk
4:56among institutional and seasoned
4:58investors, the landscape in Japan, the
5:00US, and China has shifted significantly
5:03over the past one to two months.
5:05Instead of relying on someone else's
5:07guesswork, we will look at actual
5:09capital flows to see what is happening
5:11right now and why rare metal stocks are
5:13about to take off. Many of you may not
5:15have seen the previous video, but don't
5:17worry—today’s video is structured
5:19as a complete, standalone guide to rare
5:21metals. So, let’s dive right in. Over
5:24the last few years, AI semiconductors
5:26have clearly been the stars of the
5:27stock market, haven't they? With AI
5:29semiconductor stocks rising so much,
5:31you might think it’s already too late
5:33to buy now. You might also have
5:35thoughts crossing your mind, like, "
5:36Aren't they just going to crash again
5:38like before?" But it’s not too late.
5:41In July 2026, even as AI semiconductor
5:43stocks tumbled and people claimed the
5:45AI boom was over, Google’s parent
5:48company and Amazon weren't cutting
5:50their AI spending; they were actually
5:52increasing their annual plans. Even
5:54when stock prices dropped out of
5:56anxiety, the money flowing into AI
5:58never stopped. Actually, it turns out
6:00that behind the scenes, massive amounts
6:02of money began moving into a sector
6:03completely different from AI, and in
6:05September 2026, a certain organization
6:07emerged as a shareholder in a specific
6:09company. What’s interesting is that
6:10it wasn't an investment fund or a
6:12famous investor—it was the U.S.
6:14Department of Defense. They are
6:15equivalent to Japan’s Ministry of
6:17Defense, but the scale of the money
6:19they manage is on a different level.
6:20The annual budget for the entire
6:22country of Japan is roughly 122
6:24trillion yen. The Department of Defense
6:26alone holds a budget larger than that.
6:28On September 14, 2026, that same
6:30Department of Defense announced an
6:32investment of approximately 70 billion
6:34yen into a company called Hermet Group.
6:36To explain what kind of company this is
6:39, it’s not an AI or semiconductor
6:41firm; it manufactures materials and
6:43parts made from tungsten, a type of
6:45rare metal. And it wasn't just a simple
6:48capital injection, either. In exchange
6:50for that 70 billion yen, the Department
6:52of Defense gained the right to hold up
6:54to a 20%stake in Hermet and the power
6:56to appoint a board member to help set
6:58company policy. This is highly unusual,
7:00as prior to 2025, the U.S. government
7:02only became a shareholder in private
7:04companies during emergencies, like when
7:06major corporations like GM were on the
7:08verge of collapse during the Lehman
7:10Shock. This time, it wasn't to save a
7:12failing company, but rather to secure a
7:14supply chain by the government becoming
7:16a shareholder to influence its
7:17management. Furthermore, Elmet’s
7:19subsidiary is involved in the U.S.
7:21government's national stockpile. In
7:22other words, they signed a contract to
7:24supply raw tungsten for the
7:25government's emergency reserves.
7:27Essentially, the government is
7:29providing funds and also buying the
7:30products they make. The U.S. government
7:32has become both a shareholder and a
7:34customer of this single company;
7:35that’s pretty intense. But honestly,
7:37when people hear "tungsten," it’s
7:38hard to grasp, and it feels pretty dull
7:40compared to AI stocks, right? However,
7:41that’s not the case. This metal that
7:44seems so dull is currently in a crazy
7:46situation, and what's more, the target
7:48is pointed straight at Japan. The
7:49reason why rare metal-related stocks
7:51are about to take off is simple: China
7:54has started using metals like tungsten
7:56as a weapon to squeeze the world and
7:58Japan. I’ll explain what happened
8:00later, but first, what even are rare
8:01metals? And why would a metal become a
8:03weapon? It’s a bit confusing, isn't
8:06it? Understanding this will make the
8:08rest of the story much more interesting
8:10, so let me explain briefly: rare
8:11metals are a collective term for metals
8:13that are hard to obtain but essential
8:15for industry. It’s not the name of
8:17one single metal, but a name for a
8:19group. In Japan, the Ministry of
8:21Economy, Trade and Industry designates
8:2331 types of metals as rare metals, and
8:24the name sounds similar to the "rare
8:26earths" that are talked about lately,
8:28right? Actually, those rare earths are
8:30just one part of this rare metal group.
8:32And the star of this story, tungsten,
8:34is included in those 31 types. So, just
8:37how important is this tungsten? It is
8:40an incredibly hard and heat-resistant
8:42metal, so it is often used as a blade
8:44for cutting other metals. For example,
8:46car engines and airplane parts are all
8:48shaped by cutting blocks of metal with
8:50these blades. In a way, they are like
8:52kitchen knives for factories. Just as a
8:55chef can't make anything without a
8:56knife, a factory can't make anything
8:58without tungsten blades. It’s also
9:00used in armor-piercing shells, so
9:02weapons production would grind to a
9:04halt. Tungsten is such an essential
9:06metal. There are only a limited number
9:08of places in the world where it can be
9:10mined, yet one country actually digs up
9:1180 percent of it. That country is China
9:14. In other words, China holds the
9:16world's tungsten faucet; if they don't
9:18like a certain country, they can simply
9:20tighten the tap and say, "We aren't
9:21selling to you anymore." The affected
9:23country's manufacturing and weapons
9:25production would stop, leaving them no
9:27choice but to listen to China. When you
9:29control the metal, you can play that
9:31diplomatic card. And China has actually
9:33played this card. In February 2025,
9:35they changed the rules, requiring
9:37government permission to export
9:39tungsten. They essentially tightened
9:40the tap, deciding for themselves
9:42whether or not to let it flow. As a
9:43result, the price of raw tungsten
9:45skyrocketed to roughly nine times what
9:46it was at the beginning of 2025. Nine
9:48times, that is. Nine times. Faced with
9:51this, both the U.S. and Japan have no
9:52choice but to build their own supply
9:53faucets within their own borders. The
9:55U.S. Department of Defense explains
9:56that this is exactly the purpose of the
9:58current 70 billion yen investment. They
9:59went as far as becoming shareholders to
10:01secure a supply of tungsten that
10:03doesn't rely on China. And here is the
10:05critical part for Japan: this tap is
10:07being tightened even further against us
10:10. China has reacted strongly to Prime
10:12Minister Takaichi's comments on Taiwan,
10:14causing a strain in Japan-China
10:16relations, and as a result, on January
10:186, 2026, China banned exports to Japan
10:20for defense purposes for items that
10:22have both military and civilian uses.
10:24Of course, tungsten is included in
10:26these items. They will sell to other
10:28countries with permission, but they
10:29won't sell to Japan's defense sector;
10:31the treatment of Japan alone is
10:32unusually harsh. So, what happened
10:34after that? The Japanese government
10:36didn't just sit by. In March 2026, the
10:38Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
10:40decided to support a new tungsten
10:42factory being built in Toyama by Allied
10:43Material, a company in the Sumitomo
10:45Electric group. The government provided
10:47approximately 7.5 billion yen, nearly
10:49half of the total cost. They are going
10:51to Japan to build these supply valves
10:53as a national policy. Now, you may be
10:55thinking that you want to buy stock in
10:57that company right away, but Allied
10:59Material itself isn't listed, so you
11:01can't buy it. You could buy its parent
11:03company, Sumitomo Electric, but since
11:05they are a large firm focused on
11:06automotive wiring and power cables, a
11:08growth in their tungsten plant likely
11:10wouldn't move their stock price much.
11:12So, where are the rare metal companies
11:14in Japan that you can actually buy?
11:15Which companies will profit and see
11:17their stock prices rise from the growth
11:18of this rare metal industry? I will
11:20show you that specifically in the
11:21second half. So, what actually happened
11:23to the stock price of Elmet after the
11:25Department of Defense invested in it?
11:27It rose by about 40%the week the
11:29investment was announced. Seeing this
11:31result, some of you might think, "Well,
11:33it’s already gone up," or "Isn't it
11:35too late to buy now?" I thought the
11:37same at first, but when you look at
11:38where the government money is moving
11:40rather than the stock price, a
11:41completely different picture emerges.
11:43First of all, the only stock that rose
11:45was the one American company announced
11:47as having the government as a
11:48shareholder; the trend of government
11:50money flowing into metals has only just
11:51begun. And here is what's interesting:
11:53the U.S. Department of Defense actually
11:55invested in a rare earth company in
11:572025 as well, becoming its largest
11:59shareholder. For those of you highly
12:01literate viewers who follow the news
12:02regularly, you might have realized it's
12:04the exact same approach as back then.
12:062025 was rare earths, and 2026 is
12:09tungsten. They are expanding the list
12:11of metals under government control one
12:13by one. As for Japan's national policy,
12:15it is still in the phase of building
12:16factories, so I believe news about the
12:18government putting money into metal
12:20companies will continue to emerge over
12:21time, involving different metals and
12:23different countries. The 40%jump for
12:24Elmet was just what happened at the
12:26very start of that trend. Let me
12:27summarize things here for a moment.
12:29China has started using metals like
12:31tungsten as a weapon to tighten the
12:32squeeze. The U.S. even became a
12:34shareholder to build its own supply
12:36chain. Japan also faced tightened
12:38restrictions and began providing state
12:40funding. All of this was happening in
12:422026, while everyone was focused on AI
12:44stock charts. The government suddenly
12:46began pouring in massive amounts of
12:47money. This is exactly what you call a
12:49national policy theme without a name.
12:51However, there is still one huge
12:53mystery left in this story. On
12:55September 24, 2026, the U.S. and
12:57Chinese leaders met and agreed to halt
12:59further tariffs and export restrictions
13:01. In other words, they agreed to a
13:03temporary ceasefire. Usually, when the
13:06U.S. and China reconcile, the market
13:08assumes China will supply metals again,
13:10ending shortages and price hikes. That
13:12is why rare metal stocks tend to be
13:13sold off whenever news of a U.S.-China
13:15reconciliation emerges. Yet, the U.S.
13:17Department of Defense announced a 70
13:19billion yen investment just ten days
13:21before that summit. Why did the
13:23government invest money when a
13:25reconciliation was already in sight?
13:26Understanding this reveals which rare
13:28metal-related stocks have future growth
13:30potential. So, we will now solve this
13:32mystery, which actually becomes clear
13:34once you understand the current state
13:36of the rare metal market. To understand
13:38the current market, you need to focus
13:40on three things: the sellers, the
13:42buyers, and the prices. Once you grasp
13:43this, you can quickly read which
13:45companies will profit and see their
13:47stock prices rise when news hits. You
13:48will find it easier to ride the wave of
13:50rising stocks from the same perspective
13:51as professional institutional investors
13:52. First, the sellers. How is China,
13:55which controls about 80%of the world's
13:57tungsten, moving right now? If you only
13:59look at the news here, it is easy to
14:01get the wrong idea. Do you remember the
14:03Trump shock in April 2025? It was that
14:05crash where the Nikkei and S&P 500
14:08plummeted after President Trump
14:09announced global tariffs. At that time,
14:12the U.S. and China traded tariffs,
14:14eventually reaching rates exceeding 100
14:17%. But behind the scenes, China had
14:19played another card. That was rare
14:22earths. In April 2025, China
14:24established a rule requiring government
14:26permission to export seven types of
14:28rare earths. Following that, the U.S.
14:30and China held discussions, leading to
14:32a summit in Busan, South Korea, in
14:34October 2025, where they reached a
14:36truce, agreeing to lower tariffs and
14:38halt newly introduced export
14:40restrictions. The news was widely
14:41reported as a U.S.-China rapprochement,
14:43and the market accepted it at face
14:45value. By September 2026, even MP
14:47Materials, a rare earth company with
14:49the Department of Defense as its
14:51largest shareholder, saw its stock
14:53price drop more than 20%from its August
14:55high. Even a company with the
14:56government as a stakeholder was sold
14:58off just because of the news of a
15:00reconciliation. Honestly, at first, I
15:02thought a truce meant all restrictions
15:03had stopped, but when I checked the
15:05details of the suspended restrictions
15:07one by one, that wasn't the case. There
15:09were actually three restrictions that
15:11were not stopped. The rule requiring
15:13permission for tungsten exports. The
15:15rule for the seven types of rare earths
15:16that China cut off during the "Trump
15:18shock," and the rule banning exports
15:20for Japan's defense sector. These three
15:22were not included in the truce.
15:24Moreover, since the ban on Japan is a
15:25bilateral issue between Japan and China
15:27, it won't be eased just because of a
15:29U.S.-China truce. In short, even if the
15:31U.S. and China make amends, Japan alone
15:33is being left behind under pressure. In
15:35other words, what China halted in the
15:37truce was mainly what they said they
15:39would strengthen in October 2025;
15:40things like tungsten and rare earths,
15:42which they had already restricted
15:44before that, remain in place. You can
15:46understand it this way for now. So, why
15:48do you think China can afford to be so
15:50assertive? Is it because they have some
15:52special technology only they possess?
15:54Actually, that is not the case. The
15:57reason is simply that China sold
15:58everything at rock-bottom prices. In
16:00neighboring South Korea, there used to
16:02be a tungsten mine called the Sangdong
16:03Mine, which was once said to be among
16:05the largest in the world. But when
16:07cheap tungsten flooded in from China,
16:09it became impossible to make it
16:10profitable anymore. The Sado mine
16:13didn't run out of resources, yet it
16:15closed in 1994. In the U.S., commercial
16:18tungsten mining also came to an end in
16:212025. It follows the same trend as
16:23Japanese coal mines, which shut down
16:25when pushed out by cheaper imports. To
16:27summarize this trend: China sells large
16:29quantities at low prices. Mines in
16:31other countries become unprofitable and
16:33shut down. Before we know it, the world
16:35has no choice but to buy from China.
16:37It's more accurate to say that everyone
16:38else gave it up rather than China
16:40stealing it. Furthermore, once a mine
16:42is closed, you can't just start digging
16:44again. Even for the Sado mine, it took
16:46over a decade from when the current
16:48owner acquired it in 2015 until it
16:50resumed operations in 2026. In other
16:52words, the reason I called the 40%jump
16:55in Almonty’s stock price just the
16:57beginning is because of this long
16:59timeline. Next, let's look at the
17:01buyers. With the sellers in this
17:03situation, what are the buyers doing
17:05now? First, the U.S. U.S. law dictates
17:07that starting January 1, 2027, defense
17:09equipment purchased by the Department
17:11of Defense cannot use tungsten mined or
17:13processed in China. Since it's a date
17:15set by law, it won't change just
17:17because leaders shake hands. The
17:19Department of Defense announced its 70
17:21billion yen investment just three and a
17:22half months before this deadline.
17:24Meaning, regardless of whether leaders
17:26make amends, the country had to
17:27urgently secure tungsten that doesn't
17:29rely on China. This is the answer to
17:31what happened 10 days ago. Furthermore,
17:34there is another major player on the
17:35buyer's side. AI semiconductors. If you
17:39look at the order in which China has
17:41restricted exports, it's clear: gallium
17:43and germanium for semiconductor
17:45materials in 2023, antimony in 2024,
17:47and in February 2025, tungsten—used
17:49for thin wiring inside semiconductors
17:51—along with four other metals. And in
17:54April 2025, rare earths. So, while
17:57everyone was watching AI semiconductor
17:59stock prices, China was quietly cutting
18:01off the supply of the very metals those
18:03semiconductors are built upon. The more
18:05AI grows, the more the number of buyers
18:07wanting this metal will increase.
18:09Lastly, the price. The raw material for
18:12tungsten jumped ninefold from the start
18:14of 2025, but after hitting an all-time
18:17high in March 2026, it has been
18:18trending downward since spring. I'm
18:20sure you all thought, "Prices can't
18:22stay this high for long, who would buy
18:24it?"—and I thought the same. As
18:26prices rise, more people outside of
18:28China will mine it and recover it from
18:30scrap, so eventually, prices should
18:32stabilize. However, the government
18:33isn't really concerned about the high
18:35price itself. What they are worried
18:37about is the risk of supply being cut
18:38off at the whim of another country. So,
18:40even if prices fall or supplies
18:42increase, the government's reason for
18:43investing money hasn't disappeared.
18:45Let's summarize what we've covered so
18:47far. The seller, China, hasn't reopened
18:48the gates even after patching things up
18:50. Japan remains left behind. The buyer,
18:52the US, is racing against time to stock
18:54up and is also hungry for AI
18:56semiconductors. And prices, after
18:57hitting a record high in March 2026,
18:59have been falling since the spring.
19:01This is the current state of the rare
19:03metal market. Hearing all this, you
19:04might think Japan is left behind and
19:06lacks resources. It sounds like we're
19:08finished, doesn't it? But that’s not
19:10the case at all. Actually, Japan has
19:11real weapons to compete in the world of
19:14rare metals. Moreover, professional
19:15investors see these very weapons as the
19:17reason why Japan's rare metal-related
19:19stocks will rise from here on. So, how
19:21is the "left behind" Japan planning to
19:24climb back up? Japan has three main
19:26weapons. These three will serve as your
19:29guide for where to look when reviewing
19:31the stocks I'll introduce later, or
19:33when tracking rare metal and rare earth
19:35stocks in the future. If you grasp
19:36these, you'll be able to judge for
19:38yourself which companies will benefit
19:40when you see the news. Those three are:
19:42the power to reclaim, the power to
19:44master, and the power to mine for
19:45ourselves. These three points are the
19:47very reasons why Japanese rare
19:49metal-related stocks will rise from
19:50here on. First is the power of recovery
19:53. Japan is often called a country
19:55without resources, right? But actually,
19:57tungsten is lying dormant right here in
19:59Japan. Where is it? It's in the blades
20:02and drills used in factories. I
20:04mentioned that tungsten is used in
20:06blades for cutting metal, but these
20:08blades wear down the more you use them.
20:11If you collect and melt them down, you
20:13can extract the tungsten. It’s
20:15basically an urban mine. The key player
20:17here is a Mitsubishi Materials
20:18subsidiary called Japan New Metals;
20:20they are the only manufacturer in the
20:22country that can handle the entire
20:24process from raw material to tungsten
20:25powder. This company announced that by
20:27September 2026, they will invest about
20:298 billion yen to roughly double their
20:31capacity to create raw materials from
20:33used tungsten. This has been recognized
20:35by the government as a project to
20:37secure materials essential for national
20:39security, and the new facility is
20:40scheduled to start operating in April
20:422029. The goal is to replace the raw
20:44materials currently purchased from
20:45overseas with tungsten recovered within
20:47Japan. In other words, the idea is that
20:49if we can't buy it from China, we
20:50should just recover it from within
20:52Japan. The longer these restrictions
20:53continue, the more the companies with
20:55recovery capabilities will be needed.
20:56If production capacity doubles, the
20:58volume handled will also increase. This
21:00is the first point. Next is the second
21:02point: the power to utilize it
21:03effectively. Tungsten is useless just
21:05by being dug up. It only becomes
21:07something usable in factories once it's
21:09processed into blades or drills. And
21:10Japan is at the world's top level in
21:12this processing technology. For example
21:14, a company called Union Tool is the
21:16world leader in tungsten drills used to
21:18make tiny holes in AI server circuit
21:20boards. As more AI servers are built,
21:22more circuit boards are needed, and
21:24that means more drills to bore the
21:25holes. In fact, the company plans to
21:27invest over 26 billion yen over two
21:29years to increase their drill
21:31production capacity by 50%each year.
21:33While everyone is watching the stock
21:34prices of AI semiconductors, Japanese
21:36companies are the ones delivering the
21:37tools needed to build that AI to the
21:39rest of the world. As AI grows, the
21:40number of drills we can sell also
21:42increases. This is the second point.
21:44And the third point. It’s the power
21:46to mine from our own resources. The
21:47setting is Minamitorishima, the
21:49easternmost point of Japan. February
21:512026. Off the coast, at a depth of
21:53about 5,600 meters, the Japanese
21:55research vessel "Chikyu" brought up mud
21:57containing rare earth elements.
21:58What’s more, that mud was found to
22:00contain the heavy-type rare earths that
22:02we currently rely on China for. Many of
22:03you have probably seen this in the news
22:05. Japan, long said to be resource-poor,
22:07has started mining from its own seabed.
22:09This is a significantly large step
22:11forward. The next step is February 2027
22:14. A full-scale test is planned to
22:16extract about 350 tons per day. But
22:18some of you might think, "Since it's a
22:20government research institute doing the
22:22mining, I can't invest in that."
22:23That’s true; you can't buy stock in
22:25Minamitorishima itself, but Japanese
22:27companies making the equipment to lift
22:29mud from the deep sea are getting
22:30orders as testing progresses. I will
22:32show you which companies these are in
22:34the chart later. So, let me summarize
22:36what we have so far. The power to
22:38recover used tungsten within Japan. The
22:41power to transform tungsten from
22:42world-class blades into drills. And the
22:44power to mine from Japan’s own seabed
22:47. Japan hasn't just been sitting
22:48quietly while being left behind. It is
22:50actively building three paths at once
22:52to stop relying on China. Moreover,
22:53these three things share a common trait
22:55. They are all areas where government
22:57funding and orders are flowing in, and
22:59the volume handled is growing. That is
23:01exactly why Japanese rare metal-related
23:02stocks are going to rise from here on.
23:04Having said that, after hearing all
23:06this, you might think, "Then can't I
23:07just buy any Japanese rare metal
23:09company and make a profit?" But wait a
23:11minute. It’s not that simple. In fact
23:13, there are Japanese companies that
23:15have seen their profits plummet despite
23:17dealing with key rare metals. For
23:18example, a company called Nippon Seiko
23:20deals in a metal called antimony, but
23:22their core operating profit from April
23:24to June 2026 dropped by 80%compared to
23:26the previous year. The volume sold has
23:28actually increased from the previous
23:30year. Even though sales volume rose,
23:32profits fell by 80%. Why would this
23:34happen when government tailwinds should
23:36be boosting growth? Actually, this
23:38hides the one key difference between
23:39companies that profit in rare metal
23:41stocks and those that don't. Once you
23:43understand this, it becomes clear which
23:45of the nine stocks I'll introduce later
23:47you should choose. So, I'm now going to
23:49discuss the key to selecting stocks,
23:51explaining why some companies fail to
23:53profit despite being in a sector with
23:55government tailwinds. Why did Nippon
23:58Seiko see their profit drop by 80%
24:00despite an increase in sales volume?
24:02It’s because the price of antimony
24:05fell. Antimony is a type of rare metal
24:07used to make plastics in home
24:09appliances and cables flame-retardant.
24:11Back in the autumn of 2024, China made
24:13the export of this antimony subject to
24:15permits, which caused prices to
24:17skyrocket. Nippon Seiko successfully
24:19rode the wave of that price surge. In
24:21the year leading up to March 2026, they
24:23increased their operating profit by
24:25nearly 70%compared to the previous year
24:27, but then something unexpected
24:28happened. Even though China kept its
24:30export restrictions in place, the price
24:32of antimony began to fall. By June 2026
24:34, the Nikkei reported that prices had
24:37dropped by 60%. You might wonder, why
24:39would the price go down if exports are
24:41still restricted? What’s happening is
24:43exactly what I mentioned earlier in the
24:45video: when prices rise, miners outside
24:47of China increase production, and
24:49eventually, the market stabilizes.
24:51Seeing the price surge, countries
24:53outside of China increased their
24:54extraction volumes, and new producers
24:56began to emerge. As a result, even
24:58without buying from China, there was
25:00enough supply from other nations,
25:02easing the competition and driving
25:04prices down. Nippon Seiko was left
25:06holding inventory that they had
25:07purchased when prices were high. They
25:09had no choice but to sell the items
25:11they bought at a high cost for a lower
25:12price. So, even though sales volume
25:14increased, profits dropped by 80
25:16percent. In other words, even for a
25:18core manufacturing business, price was
25:19what determined the profit. If a
25:21company isn't profitable, it can't grow
25:23, which naturally affects the stock
25:24price as well. Listening this far,
25:26especially if you're a beginner
25:28investor, you might think this sounds
25:29complicated. But it's easier to
25:31understand if you think about a rice
25:33ball shop. For example, suppose the
25:35price of rice suddenly doubles.
25:37Naturally, the rice ball shop will
25:38raise its prices too. What happens if
25:40they still have rice in stock that was
25:42bought when it was cheap? They can sell
25:44rice balls made with cheap rice at a
25:46higher price, so they make a temporary
25:48windfall. But once that cheap rice runs
25:50out, they have to use the expensive
25:51rice. So, their profits return to
25:53normal. Conversely, if rice prices drop
25:56, they have to lower their prices too.
25:58If they have expensive rice left in
25:59stock then, their profits will take a
26:01hit. What happened at Nippon Seiko is
26:03exactly this pattern of having
26:05expensive rice left in stock. On the
26:07other hand, what about a shop where
26:09sales volume keeps growing regardless
26:11of rice prices? Profits pile up as
26:13sales increase, whether rice prices go
26:16up or down. And actually, there are
26:18companies right now making profits
26:19using this "cheap rice" pattern.
26:21There's a company called Nippon
26:23Tungsten that makes parts from tungsten
26:24; they raised their projected profit
26:26for the six months from April to
26:28September 2026 to nearly five times
26:29what it was the previous year. One
26:31reason is that the raw material costs
26:33were lower than the company anticipated
26:35. Basically, the rice in their
26:36warehouse was cheaper than they
26:38expected. However, they did not raise
26:40their full-year outlook. The company
26:42explained that they can't predict
26:43future raw material prices, meaning
26:45even the company itself can't foresee
26:47what profits will look like once that
26:49cheap rice runs out. Hearing this, you
26:51might think you shouldn't buy companies
26:53that profit from price hikes, but
26:55that's not necessarily the case. While
26:57prices are rising, they naturally make
26:58large profits and their stock prices
27:00jump. However, to capture those gains,
27:02you have to predict how high the price
27:04will go and when it will start to fall.
27:06Even professional investors struggle to
27:08predict that. So, how can you tell the
27:09difference between profitable and
27:11unprofitable companies? There is only
27:13one difference: this. Is the
27:15company’s profit growing because of
27:16prices, or because of sales volume?
27:18Companies that profit from prices see
27:20their earnings drop as soon as prices
27:21stabilize. Companies that profit from
27:23volume retain those earnings
27:24proportional to the volume increase,
27:25even when prices stabilize. I mentioned
27:27that the government keeps investing
27:28regardless of high prices, but even if
27:30government money keeps flowing, what
27:32ultimately determines the stock price
27:33is the company's profit. That is why,
27:35even within the same government-led
27:37theme, some companies are profitable
27:38and others are not. Let’s recall the
27:40three strengths of Japan. The power to
27:43recover will double the capacity to
27:44create raw materials from used tungsten
27:46. The power to utilize will increase
27:48the capacity to produce drills for AI
27:50servers by 50%every year. The power to
27:52mine domestically will bring orders to
27:53equipment manufacturers as tests
27:55progress. All of these are stories
27:56about increasing volume. Of course,
27:58there is no company with zero exposure
28:00to price fluctuations. Still, whether
28:01the foundation of profit is price or
28:03volume changes everything after prices
28:05stabilize. So, let me summarize the
28:07answer up to this point. Why are there
28:09companies that don't make money even
28:10with government backing? It’s because
28:12their profits are tied to price. The
28:14tailwind of government projects may
28:16increase volume, but it doesn't protect
28:18the price. That’s why companies
28:19profiting from prices see their
28:20earnings vanish the moment prices
28:21stabilize, even if they are at the
28:23heart of a national project. Nippon
28:24Seikosho was a perfect example of this.
28:26Conversely, companies that profit from
28:28volume retain those earnings according
28:29to the increased amount, even if prices
28:31stabilize. In short, when choosing rare
28:33metal stocks, the key isn't whether
28:35they're government-backed, but whether
28:37their profits are driven by price or
28:39volume. This will be the most important
28:41point when we look at the upcoming
28:43stocks. Based on what we've covered,
28:44I'd like to look at these rare metal
28:46stocks one by one to make investment
28:48decisions, but there's something I need
28:50to be honest with you about first. I
28:52want you to recall the case of MP
28:53Materials, a rare earth company where
28:55the U.S. Department of Defense is the
28:57largest shareholder—a textbook
28:58example of a government-backed stock.
29:00It was the ultimate thematic stock, yet
29:02in September 2026, it dropped over 20%
29:04from its highs just on the news that
29:06the U.S. and China had reconciled. The
29:08company's performance hadn't changed,
29:10and the government hadn't pulled out.
29:11There was nothing wrong with how the
29:13stock was selected. The only thing that
29:15changed was the U.S.-China relationship
29:16. That alone was enough to cause this
29:17government-backed stock to be sold off
29:19by 20%. Then there is Nippon Seisen,
29:20which I mentioned earlier. Even though
29:22China is still imposing restrictions,
29:23the price of antimony fell, and profits
29:25dropped by 80%. This wasn't because the
29:26company changed anything either. The
29:28price simply dropped. That’s all
29:30there is to it. In other words, even if
29:31you perfectly pick the right company in
29:33a government-backed sector, your stock
29:34price is at the mercy of two things you
29:36cannot control: rare metal prices and
29:38U.S.-China relations. To summarize,
29:39there are three factors that will
29:41affect our accounts over the next 5 to
29:4210 years. Which stocks you choose, and
29:44whether rare metal prices rise, stay
29:46flat, or fall. And which way U.S.-China
29:48relations and government policies move.
29:50This structure isn't limited to rare
29:51metals; it's the same for other
29:52thematic stocks as well. Of these,
29:54there is only one thing we can
29:55influence through our own efforts.
29:57Today's "price vs. volume" yardstick is
29:58meant to improve the accuracy of that
30:00first factor. But if you can't control
30:02the other two no matter how thoroughly
30:04you analyze financial reports, trying
30:05to win solely through stock-picking
30:07accuracy is structurally insufficient.
30:09The reason is simple: there is only one
30:11pattern that leads to a win. It's the
30:13second of the three points mentioned
30:14earlier: whether prices rise, stay flat
30:16, or fall. No matter how much you
30:17refine your stock picking, we only make
30:18a profit in one scenario: when the
30:20price goes up. If the price stays flat,
30:21nothing happens, and if it drops, we
30:23just have to endure the unrealized
30:24losses. Furthermore, as we saw today,
30:26theme stocks related to government
30:27policy can move 20%on just one piece of
30:28news. Betting everything on an upward
30:30move carries far too much risk. So, how
30:32do professional investors minimize risk
30:34while maximizing their asset growth? I
30:35mentioned earlier that even pros have a
30:37hard time predicting exactly when
30:38prices will fall, right? That’s why
30:40pros don’t try to predict it. They
30:41simply place something alongside their
30:43theme stocks that generates profit even
30:44when prices drop. Then, they take half
30:46of those profits and reinvest them back
30:47into their core index holdings. What
30:49happens when you do this? On a day when
30:51rare metal prices drop and theme stocks
30:52are sold off. The theme stocks decrease
30:54, but the asset placed alongside them
30:56increases. With those gains, you can
30:57accumulate more of the cheaper-priced
30:58companies than you normally could. On a
31:00day when prices rise and the theme
31:01stocks grow, you simply take the profit
31:03. In other words, your account, which
31:04could previously only bet on prices
31:05rising, transforms into one that grows
31:07regardless of whether the market goes
31:08up, stays flat, or drops. Think of
31:10those who panicked and sold on the day
31:11MP Materials dropped 20%versus those
31:13who bought more. The difference
31:14wasn’t their ability to pick stocks,
31:16but what they had placed alongside them
31:17. When I first started trading
31:19individual stocks, I bet everything on
31:21theme stocks and could only watch my
31:22losses grow when prices fell. So, I
31:24researched and learned how the pros
31:26grow their wealth, and I restructured
31:27my portfolio to include assets that
31:29profit when the market drops alongside
31:31my index funds. As a result, I went
31:32from 5 million yen in debt to 40
31:34million yen in assets in six and a half
31:35years. It wasn’t because I got better
31:37at picking winning stocks. I just
31:38managed my risk and added one thing to
31:40my account that increases in value when
31:42prices fall. This is a simple method
31:44that is standard practice among
31:45institutional investors and
31:47professional traders, and I would like
31:49to share this approach with you at our
31:51"Index Investing x [Asset Class] 10x
31:53Roadmap" study session. You might think
31:55this is just an ad, but that would be a
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32:39please add Kanamaru's official LINE via
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32:50guide to high-speed asset building. It
32:52is the ultimate guidebook that compiles
32:54content I can't talk about in regular
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33:00other professionals have done and still
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33:04. To participate, you can sign up for
33:05free by selecting a date through the
33:07link in the description below or by
33:09scanning this QR code. So, thank you
33:11for waiting. From here on, I will
33:12finally introduce 9 Japanese and US
33:14rare metal-related stocks that are
33:15likely to see significant price
33:17movements in the future. First, I want
33:18to clarify that this is not a
33:20recommendation for you to buy these
33:21specific stocks. If you just want to
33:23know the names of the stocks, this
33:25might be a bit underwhelming, but by
33:26simply keeping a rough map of the
33:28future in your mind, the next time
33:29there is news about rare metals, you
33:31will be able to immediately realize, "
33:32Oh, this relates to that company." As
33:34for that map, the world of rare metals
33:36is like a four-story building located
33:38underground. The basement level sells
33:40tools, such as the machines used to
33:42pull up mud from the ocean floor. The
33:44first floor is digging. This is the
33:46process of extracting ore from mines.
33:47The second floor is turning it into raw
33:49materials. The process of turning
33:50extracted ore or scrap metal into
33:52usable raw materials. The third floor
33:54is delivery. These are the traders who
33:55source raw materials and deliver them
33:56to the companies that need them. The
33:57fourth floor is processing. This is the
34:00process of turning raw materials into
34:01blades, drills, or parts. Now, I want
34:03you to recall the three strengths of
34:04Japan: the basement’s "selling tools"
34:06is the power to dig independently, the
34:07second floor’s "making raw materials"
34:09is the power to recover them, and the
34:10fourth floor’s "processing" is the
34:11power to utilize them—all three map
34:13directly onto these building floors.
34:14There are two key points to look for
34:16when examining each company. First, on
34:18which floor does this company operate,
34:19and how do they make money? Second,
34:21does their profit depend on price or
34:23volume? Knowing these two things is far
34:25more useful than just memorizing
34:26company names. So, let's head up,
34:28starting from the basement. In the
34:30world of investing, this story often
34:32comes up. If you already know it, you
34:34are a wonderful investor who studies
34:36the market regularly. It’s the story
34:38that during the Gold Rush, the people
34:39who made the real money weren't the
34:41ones digging for gold, but the ones
34:42selling the picks and shovels. Finding
34:44gold is a matter of luck, but everyone
34:46who goes to dig needs to buy tools.
34:48It’s the same with Minamitorishima;
34:49the ones digging up mud from the seabed
34:51are national research institutes. You
34:52can't buy shares in them, but the
34:54companies building the digging tools
34:56are Japanese firms whose stocks we can
34:58buy. This floor makes money whenever
34:59the government's trials or mine
35:00development progress, triggering new
35:02orders for tools. It's a type that
35:04moves based on volume. The risk is that
35:06if national projects are delayed,
35:08orders stop. There are publicly traded
35:09companies in the U.S. trying to mine
35:11deep-sea resources, but they are
35:13targeting seabed nodules containing
35:14nickel and cobalt, which is different
35:16from the rare-earth mud at
35:17Minamitorishima. So, I will introduce
35:19one company from the Japanese stock
35:21market. This company built the
35:22mechanism that pumps the mud from
35:24Minamitorishima up to the ship. That
35:25would be Toyo Engineering. They are a
35:28major plant engineering firm that
35:29builds massive chemical and fertilizer
35:31factories worldwide. In fact, they are
35:33involved in developing a system to pump
35:36rare earth mud from the deep seabed up
35:38to ships as a liquid. They were also
35:40responsible for designing and building
35:41the equipment that successfully
35:43collected the mud during a national
35:45test off the coast of Minamitorishima
35:47in February 2026. Looking at the
35:49numbers, sales from April to June 2026
35:51were 48.1 billion yen, with an
35:52operating profit—their core business
35:54earnings—of 1.9 billion yen. That
35:56comes out to an operating profit margin
35:59of about 4%relative to sales. To be
36:01honest, their profit margins in their
36:03core business are quite slim. In
36:05February 2026, delays in a Brazilian
36:06power plant project led to increased
36:08costs, causing their full-year earnings
36:10forecast to swing from a surplus to a
36:12deficit. While they may be bought for
36:13their potential regarding
36:14Minamitorishima, they are a company
36:15where you need to watch both the
36:16thematic potential and the core
36:17business, as a stumble in the latter
36:18could lead to a sell-off. So, digging
36:20it up from the seabed is still a
36:21resource for the future. Then, who is
36:23actually mining tungsten in the world
36:25right now? Let's move up to the first
36:27floor. The first floor consists of
36:28companies that mine from mountains. The
36:30earnings for this tier come from
36:31selling the mined rare metals at the
36:32current market price. If prices rise,
36:33profits jump significantly; if they
36:35fall, profits decrease accordingly.
36:36They are the classic example of a stock
36:37type that moves with commodity prices.
36:39However, there are no Japanese stocks
36:41in this tier. That is because Japan
36:42barely mines any tungsten, relying
36:44instead on imports and recycling. So, I
36:46have one pick from the US stocks. The
36:48company is Almonty Industries, which is
36:51listed on the US NASDAQ. There is a
36:53tungsten mine in South Korea called the
36:55Sangdong Mine, once considered one of
36:57the largest in the world, which closed
36:59down in 1994 due to pressure from cheap
37:01Chinese tungsten. This company is the
37:03one that bought the mine and reopened
37:05it in 2026 for the first time in over
37:0730 years. They have also moved their
37:09headquarters from the US to Montana,
37:11Canada, and have even signed a contract
37:13to sell tungsten raw materials
37:14exclusively for US defense purposes.
37:16They’re essentially the American
37:17champion for tungsten that doesn't rely
37:19on China. Their revenue from April to
37:21June of 2026 was about six times higher
37:23than the previous year. You’d think,
37:25"If it's six times higher, that's a buy
37:27, right?" But here’s the catch: the
37:29company itself explains that this
37:31sixfold increase is due to rising
37:33tungsten prices. In other words, it’s
37:35a typical price-driven type of growth.
37:37Also, the mine is still in the startup
37:39phase, and in June 2026, they issued
37:42800 million dollars in debt convertible
37:44into shares. Since conversion could
37:46dilute the value per share, the stock
37:48price is quite volatile. Next is the
37:50second category: companies that turn
37:51scrap into raw materials. This relates
37:53to the "recovery power" out of Japan's
37:55three core strengths. This category
37:56makes money by recycling ore and used
37:58tools like scrap back into raw
37:59materials to sell. The higher the price
38:01of rare metals, the more they can sell
38:03the recovered materials for, so it's a
38:04tailwind right now. The risk is there
38:06too; if prices fall, the value of the
38:08recovered materials drops along with
38:10them. So, the key is whether the actual
38:12volume of material recovered continues
38:14to grow. In this category, I’ll
38:15introduce one company each from Japan
38:17and the U.S. The third company is
38:18Mitsubishi Materials. To clarify
38:20upfront, this company is large-scale,
38:22and its stock price isn't driven by
38:24tungsten alone. Even so, I’m
38:26introducing them because they are the
38:28ultimate proof of Japan’s commitment
38:29to "recovery power." This is because
38:31they acquired a prestigious German
38:33tungsten firm in late 2024, and it's
38:35reported their tungsten production
38:37capacity will grow to over six times
38:40what it was. Moreover, their subsidiary
38:41, Japan New Metals, is the only
38:43domestic maker that can produce
38:44everything from raw materials to
38:46finished products, and they've
38:47announced plans to double their
38:49capacity to produce raw materials from
38:50used tungsten. This plan even includes
38:522 billion yen in government subsidies.
38:55Their performance is also incredible,
38:57having raised their full-year recurring
38:59profit forecast in August 2026 from 73
39:02billion yen to 180 billion yen. They
39:04are expected to hit a record high for
39:06the first time in 19 years. If it’s a
39:08record high, wouldn't it be safe to
39:10hold? You might have thought that, but
39:12I want you to apply the "price versus
39:14volume" yardstick here. The reason for
39:16the hike is the rising cost of tungsten
39:18and copper, the weak yen, and selling
39:19raw materials bought when they were
39:21cheap at higher prices. In terms of a
39:23rice ball shop, it’s like making a
39:25profit using cheap rice left in the
39:26warehouse. This profit will shrink once
39:28the cheap raw materials run out, even
39:30if prices remain high. The doubling of
39:32recovered volume will show its effect
39:34from 2029 when new facilities start;
39:37the focus now is whether the shift from
39:39price to volume goes well. While large
39:41Japanese companies are trying to
39:43increase recovery volumes on their own,
39:44the US is going after the second floor
39:46in a completely different way. That is
39:48our fourth company, the Almonty Group,
39:50which is listed on the US Nasdaq. In
39:52September 2026, the US Department of
39:54Defense promised an investment of about
39:5670 billion yen and signed a contract to
39:58supply raw materials for the national
40:00stockpile. This stockpile contract is
40:02massive, reaching an upper limit of
40:03around 300 billion yen. They currently
40:05make everything from tungsten powder to
40:07parts, and they plan to start a factory
40:09for the raw materials themselves in
40:11Nevada in late 2028. They are trying to
40:13link the second through fourth floors
40:15together within the US under one
40:16company. The government puts in money
40:18to grow a new company from scratch.
40:20This is the American way of doing
40:22things. Looking at the numbers, sales
40:24from April to June 2026 were up 35%
40:25compared to the previous year. The
40:27company explains that more than half of
40:29that is due to an increase in orders,
40:30not just price hikes. Among those
40:32we’ve looked at, they are one of the
40:33few companies growing through volume. A
40:35point to note is that they are still
40:37showing a net loss due to one-time
40:39costs related to their listing. Also,
40:40the Department of Defense has the right
40:42to hold up to 20%of the shares, which
40:44would dilute the value per share if
40:46exercised. Since the company size is
40:47also relatively small, stock price
40:49movements tend to be volatile. So,
40:50moving on to the third floor. The rare
40:52metals that became raw materials on the
40:54second floor move on to the third floor
40:55. They pass through the hands of
40:56delivery companies and are transported
40:57to the factories. This sector isn't any
40:59of the three forces; it acts as the
41:01bridge connecting them behind the
41:02scenes. Profit in this sector comes
41:04from the difference between the
41:05purchase price and the selling price,
41:06known as the margin. When prices spike
41:08suddenly, this gap widens, and profits
41:10swell. The risk is that when prices
41:12stabilize, this gap shrinks. Since
41:14there are no listed companies in the US
41:16specializing in this sector, I will
41:18introduce one Japanese stock. The fifth
41:20company is Alconix. Originally born as
41:22a subsidiary of Nissho Iwai, the
41:24predecessor of Sojitz, it is a
41:25specialist trading house dealing in
41:27rare metals like tungsten and gallium,
41:29from raw materials to finished products
41:31. They also handle the collection of
41:32rare metal scrap for recycling,
41:34beginning to expand into the business
41:36of reclaiming secondary materials. From
41:38April to June 2024, sales were 72.5
41:40billion yen, up 38%, and operating
41:42profit was 6.9 billion yen, nearly
41:44triple the previous year. They have
41:46also raised their full-year forecast,
41:48expecting their highest earnings in
41:50five years. However, the primary reason
41:51for the profit growth was the widening
41:53margins due to rising rare metal prices
41:55. The company itself anticipates a
41:57decrease in rare metal trading volume
41:58in the second half. So, their profit is
42:00, if anything, of the price-driven type
42:02. We have looked at five stocks so far,
42:04and now I have a question for you. In
42:06this building, which level do you think
42:08Japan is the strongest in the world?
42:10The answer is this fourth level. This
42:12is the level that turns raw materials
42:13into blades and drills. In terms of
42:15Japan's three forces, this is the power
42:17to "utilize." Profit at this level is
42:19the prime example of a volume-driven
42:21type, depending on how many tools can
42:22be sold. On the other hand, the risk is
42:24clear: rare metals like tungsten are
42:26raw materials for this sector. If
42:28prices rise, costs increase, and if
42:30price hikes can't keep up, profits are
42:32eroded. Now, let's look at the company
42:34that is hit most directly by the AI
42:36wave. The sixth company is Union Tool.
42:39They are the world’s largest
42:40manufacturer of drills that bore tiny
42:42holes in AI server boards, boasting a
42:4430%global market share. Roughly 70%of
42:46their sales come from these drills. As
42:48AI servers increase, so do the boards,
42:50and the drills to bore those holes
42:51become essential. It is truly a company
42:53growing along with AI. From January to
42:56June 2026, sales were 27.1 billion yen,
42:58up 48%, and operating profit was 7.6
43:01billion yen, up 81%. The full-year
43:03outlook has also been raised twice
43:05since the start of 2026. What I want
43:07you to focus on is the operating profit
43:09margin. It stands at a remarkable 28%;
43:11when compared to recent financial
43:13results, Toyo Engineering is around 4%
43:15and Mitsubishi Materials is around 5%,
43:17so its height really stands out. As for
43:19the reason behind this gap, it comes
43:21down to whether or not there’s an
43:22alternative. Companies that have no
43:24substitute don't get squeezed on price.
43:26Just by looking at the operating profit
43:28margin, you can see whether a company
43:29holds work that is indispensable.
43:31However, there is a weakness, which is
43:33that a large portion of sales relies on
43:34a single drill product. If investment
43:36in AI stops, it will be directly
43:38affected. The company itself
43:40acknowledges that rising raw material
43:42costs may gradually begin to have an
43:43impact. Next is a company where the
43:45profit structure is a bit more complex,
43:47even though it's the same type of tool.
43:48The seventh company is OSG. It is the
43:51world’s top company with a 30%global
43:53market share in taps, which are tools
43:55used to cut threads into metal screws.
43:56The third-quarter results were
43:58announced on October 9th, and they were
44:00incredibly strong. In the nine months
44:02from December 2025 to August 2026,
44:04operating profit reached 27.5 billion
44:06yen, roughly double that of the
44:08previous year. The full-year operating
44:10profit forecast has also been raised
44:12twice in 2026, going from the initial
44:1422 billion yen to 36 billion yen.
44:16However, looking at the reason for the
44:18second upward revision is where it gets
44:20interesting. First, orders for
44:21aerospace, defense, semiconductors, and
44:23data centers are firm. This is about
44:26volume. In addition to that, the period
44:27during which they could use cheaper raw
44:29materials purchased before the price
44:30hikes lasted longer than the company
44:32expected. In other words, their "cheap
44:33rice" lasted longer than they thought
44:35it would. Furthermore, they received a
44:36tax refund from the U.S. for taxes paid
44:38in the past. It also includes one-time
44:40profits. With volume as the foundation,
44:42they are currently seeing a significant
44:44boost from cheap raw materials and
44:45one-time gains. The company itself
44:47explains that raw material prices are
44:48an unpredictable factor moving forward.
44:50The highlight of the next earnings
44:52report will be how much profit remains
44:53after the cheap rice is used up. And an
44:55American peer clearly states what will
44:58happen once this cheap rice runs out.
45:00The ninth company is Kennametal, which
45:03is listed on the New York Stock
45:04Exchange. Born in 1938 from the
45:06invention of a new cemented carbide
45:08using tungsten, this major American
45:11tool company handles everything from
45:13metal-cutting tools to mining tools and
45:15tungsten powder. They even have the
45:18capability to recycle tungsten
45:19themselves. Sales for the year ending
45:22in June '26 were up 20%from the
45:23previous year. Moreover, looking at
45:25just the three months from April to
45:27June, the operating profit margin was a
45:28staggering 41%. The previous year, it
45:31was around 6%. However, the company
45:33itself explains the details like this.
45:35The time lag where price hikes took
45:37effect before raw material costs rose
45:38was significant, and it will shrink
45:40moving forward. Even among the same
45:42four companies, there are those like
45:43Union Tool growing in volume, and those
45:45where profit is inflated by time lags.
45:46It is a good example of why it's
45:48important to look at the substance
45:49rather than just jumping in based on
45:51company size. And finally, the ninth
45:53company is another one: JX Metals.
45:55Though it is a large-scale,
45:56trillion-yen class company, the reason
45:58I'm introducing it last is because it
46:00holds the key to the foundation of AI
46:02semiconductors. There is a material
46:04essential for making semiconductors
46:06called a sputtering target; simply put,
46:08it's a metal plate used to apply a very
46:10thin layer of metal onto the
46:11semiconductor surface. JX Metals holds
46:13approximately 65%of the global market
46:15share for this material. Furthermore,
46:17they handle materials for optical
46:19communication parts used in AI data
46:20centers. They even have plans to
46:22increase their capacity for producing
46:23indium substrates by 7 to 10 times over
46:25four years. Indium is also one of the
46:27metals for which China tightened
46:29exports along with tungsten in February
46:312025. Operating profit from April to
46:33June 2026 was 81.4 billion yen, nearly
46:36triple the previous year. They also
46:38raised their full-year operating profit
46:40forecast from 190 billion yen to 232
46:42billion yen. However, looking at
46:43whether this growth was price-driven or
46:45volume-driven, most of the upward
46:46revision was due to copper prices and
46:48foreign exchange. The profits from
46:50April to June also include a one-time
46:51gain from selling part of the rights to
46:53a Chilean mine. AI semiconductor
46:55systems are growing steadily in volume,
46:56but for the company as a whole, it’s
46:58still a mix of price and volume. So, we
47:00can finally see the big picture of the
47:01building. Let’s organize it. The tool
47:04supplier in the basement is Toyo
47:05Engineering. The excavation company on
47:07the first floor is Almonty from the US.
47:08The material processing companies on
47:09the second floor are Mitsubishi
47:11Materials and the US-based Elmet Group.
47:12The delivery company on the third floor
47:14is Alconix. The machining companies on
47:16the fourth floor are Union Tool, OSG,
47:18and Kennametal from the US. And
47:19separately, there is JX Nippon Mining&
47:21Metals, which holds a key position in
47:22AI semiconductors. Don’t you notice
47:24something interesting here? Even within
47:26the same rare metal sector, some floors
47:28benefit when prices rise, while others
47:30suffer. As prices rise, the first
47:32through third floors profit, while the
47:33fourth floor struggles with raw
47:35material costs. So, if you buy rare
47:36metal-related stocks in bulk without
47:38thinking, your gains and losses may
47:40cancel each other out when prices
47:42fluctuate. Besides, there are actually
47:43two types of companies that profit from
47:45price changes. Companies like Almonty
47:47that stay profitable as long as prices
47:49are high, and companies like Mitsubishi
47:50Materials or Kennametal that profit
47:52from the time lag between cheap and
47:53expensive inputs. Even among
47:54price-sensitive companies, the latter
47:56type sees their profits shrink much
47:58faster. Taking that into account, how
47:59to read the news becomes simple. If
48:01it’s news about rare metal prices,
48:03the first to third floors and the
48:04fourth floor tend to move in opposite
48:05directions. For example, if AI capital
48:07investment increases, it’s the turn
48:09for Union Tool and JX Nippon Mining&
48:11Metals. I’ve provided a huge amount
48:13of information so far, but I’m sure
48:15many of you are still left wondering, "
48:17So, which one should I actually buy?" I
48:19imagine many of us individual investors
48:21don't know how to specifically combine
48:23companies that move on price with those
48:25that grow on volume. And honestly, this
48:27isn't a case of "just buy the nine
48:29companies I introduced today and you'll
48:31be fine." Investment is ultimately your
48:32own decision, and I cannot guarantee
48:34that buying any of these companies will
48:36be profitable. Now, based on what we've
48:37discussed so far, let's look at what we
48:39should do, one step at a time. The
48:41first thing you should do is not just
48:43buy the stocks mentioned today and call
48:44it a day. Of course, the map I showed
48:46you today can be used well into the
48:48future. The world of rare metals is
48:50made up of selling tools, mining,
48:52refining, shipping, and processing. And
48:54you must look at whether profits
48:55increased due to price or volume. This
48:57perspective will not change, no matter
48:59how many years pass. However, just
49:01remembering the map won't tell you
49:03where the money is currently flowing.
49:05For example, Mitsubishi Materials is
49:07currently profiting from price, but
49:09volume won't kick in until 2029. Both
49:11OSG and Kennametal themselves foresee
49:13that their profit margins will shrink
49:15moving forward. Even for the same
49:16company, its position on the map
49:18changes with every earnings report.
49:20Furthermore, the underlying premises
49:22themselves can shift. China has
49:24temporarily suspended export bans on
49:26items like antimony and gallium to the
49:28US, but this suspension ends on
49:30November 27, 2026. Depending on how
49:32China acts then, the sectors receiving
49:34a tailwind could change in an instant.
49:36In short, the map is always useful. But
49:39you won't know where the money is
49:41moving on that map unless you track
49:43earnings, news, and global capital
49:45flows. Moreover, that's not the only
49:48issue; this brings us to the second
49:49thing you should do: even if you could
49:51keep tracking rare metal earnings and
49:53news, growing your assets solely
49:55through one theme like rare metals is a
49:57different story. Therefore, please do
49:59not rely entirely on a single theme or
50:01a single investment strategy. As we
50:03have seen today, many rare
50:04metal-related stocks move significantly
50:06based on price. A single piece of
50:08regulatory news can send them soaring,
50:09but profits can also drop by 80%the
50:11moment prices stabilize. Relying
50:13entirely on one theme simply makes you
50:15prone to being easily swayed. You might
50:17be thinking, "Why not just stick to
50:18consistent, long-term index investing
50:20in All-Country or the S&P 500?" but
50:22it’s not quite that simple.
50:24Investment accumulation is truly
50:25essential as the foundation of your
50:27assets, and there is no need to stop
50:28doing it right now. However, many
50:30people are worried about whether that
50:32foundation alone will be enough for
50:33their retirement. Since accumulation
50:35involves investing collectively in
50:37large global or US companies, it
50:39isn’t designed to target and capture
50:40companies that grow significantly when
50:42national policies shift and money flows
50:44change. For those relying solely on
50:46accumulation, the question is if the
50:47foundation is enough; for those adding
50:49individual stocks, the concern is
50:50whether they are too heavily focused on
50:52a single theme. Either way, you need to
50:54continue your foundational accumulation
50:56while building several themes on top of
50:58it, rather than just one. But the wall
51:00many people hit here is the lack of
51:02time to follow daily news and earnings
51:04reports. Some try to keep up with every
51:07piece of news and financial report to
51:08find profitable stocks, but it’s hard
51:10to find the time for that. Even just
51:12for rare metals, there is so much you
51:14would need to track. To determine if a
51:16company’s profit growth came from
51:17higher prices or increased volume, you
51:19have to dig into the details of why
51:20their earnings grew in the financial
51:22reports. If you only look at the
51:23headline saying Mitsubishi Materials
51:25hit a 19-year high, you’d never
51:26realize the substance of that profit
51:28came from selling off cheap copper
51:29assets. Plus, companies release
51:31earnings four times a year; just for
51:33nine companies, that’s 36 times a
51:34year. On top of that, you have
51:36regulatory news, government test
51:37results, and news about AI capital
51:39investment. What if you had to do this
51:41for other themes like AI,
51:42semiconductors, or defense? With work
51:44and home life, you’d think, "I
51:46don’t have that kind of time."
51:47Salarymen can’t study investing
51:49during the weekday, and you need to
51:51spend your days off with your family,
51:52right? I was exactly in that situation
51:54back when I worked for a demanding
51:55company. That’s why it’s perfectly
51:57fine to stop trying to chase everything
51:58. But if you just let time pass without
52:00doing anything, by the time you realize
52:02it, the next wave of trends will have
52:03already passed you by. You might end up
52:05regretting it, just like when you
52:06missed out on a stock that surged
52:07several times over after going public,
52:08wishing you had bought it back then.
52:10This is the scariest pattern of all.
52:12You can't keep up with everything. But
52:13doing nothing is also frightening. So,
52:15what should you do? The answer is to
52:17narrow down where you focus your
52:19attention. To do that, you need to know
52:20beforehand what you should be looking
52:22at. In fact, the former institutional
52:24investors and professional traders I
52:26work with don't follow every single
52:27piece of news either. They have
52:29predetermined points to look at,
52:30knowing exactly where to check how a
52:32company makes money and which companies
52:34to look at when specific news breaks.
52:36Today's price and volume are also among
52:38those key points to watch. Just by
52:40having this knowledge, the information
52:41you extract from the same news will be
52:43completely different. So, how can those
52:45of us without much time learn these key
52:47points? How can we gather information
52:49and find profitable stocks within a
52:51limited amount of time? If you lack
52:53time, it's much faster to simply
52:54emulate the points professionals look
52:56at all at once, rather than chasing
52:58every single news story. That is the
53:00fifth thing you need to do. So, for
53:02those of you who don't have time to
53:04follow daily news or corporate
53:05information, those struggling with
53:07investment decisions or stock selection
53:09, or those who want to increase assets
53:11while reducing risk without spending
53:12much time. This "Index x 10x Asset
53:14Roadmap Seminar," which I mentioned
53:16earlier in the video, is exactly what I
53:19want you to attend. It’s a seminar
53:21that has had over 13,000 participants,
53:22and it's for those worried about
53:24whether just relying on All Country or
53:26S&P 500 accumulation will really be
53:27enough for retirement. If you are a
53:29busy employee with no time to follow
53:31news or earnings, or if you want to
53:33grow your assets twofold, threefold, or
53:35even tenfold, please join us via the
53:36link in the description or the QR code
53:38on the screen. So, in this video,
53:40I’ve provided a complete and detailed
53:42explanation covering everything you
53:44need to know about rare metal-related
53:45stocks. Even if you hear this and think
53:47it makes sense, only a tiny handful of
53:49people actually take action. Now that
53:51you have the rare metal landscape and
53:52the strategic goals of Japan, the US,
53:54and China in your head, this is the
53:55best time to let the learning sink in.
53:56Please make the most of this
53:58opportunity so you don’t just watch
53:59from the sidelines when the next big
54:00wave of trends arrives. Even someone
54:02stuck in a dead-end, low-paying job was
54:03able to change their life. Now, it’s
54:05your turn. I’ll see you all in the
54:07next video. Bye-bye.

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This page contains the full transcript of 【大チャンス到来!?】次世代テンバガー銘柄候補！？AIブームが落ち着いた今、密かに世界中の政府とプロの投資家が大量に購入している『レアメタル銘柄』について徹底解説 by 金丸【元ブラック企業会社員の投資・経済】, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 11,137 words across 1,764 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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