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美股Ai半導體要關注了！AI投資發財最後的機會，就在9月-11月！錯過，你就被AI取代。 — Transcript

by 尼可拉斯楊Live精 · 2,818 words · 488 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Hello, everyone.
0:00Something big has happened recently.
0:02The market seems to be shifting.
0:03I didn't publish a video on Tuesday.
0:05I've been busy preparing for tomorrow's
0:06fan meetup at moomoo Bugis
0:08in Singapore.
0:09I'm very excited.
0:10More than 100 people have signed up.
0:12If you enjoy meeting in person,
0:13we may get together in Hong Kong, Taiwan,
0:15the U.S., or even Japan in the future.
0:18The big event I just mentioned
0:19is the official launch of Tesla's self-driving car.
0:22And OpenAI President Greg Brockman,
0:25at the launch of its latest model, Astra,
0:27said something:
0:28"Welcome to the AGI era."
0:30You know what AGI means, right?
0:32Whatever you want to do,
0:33you simply tell AI,
0:35"Go do this for me,"
0:35and it gets it done,
0:37handling the entire process for you.
0:39The Astra model can now do that.
0:42Along with all the earnings reports lately,
0:44these events happened at the same time.
0:46Last night's market action
0:48took a strange turn.
0:50The good news around AI keeps piling up.
0:53Software and tech stocks may rise together.
0:55Today I'll also explain why no rate hike
0:58in September would benefit gold and AI tech stocks.
1:01This is my personal investment analysis.
1:03It may not be accurate.
1:04So let me remind everyone:
1:05these are only my personal investment notes.
1:07No one can predict a black swan
1:08that sends the stock market crashing.
1:10My views are for reference only.
1:11They are not investment advice.
1:12Everyone must take responsibility for their own investments.
1:15Let's start with the market.
1:16Beginning yesterday,
1:17the U.S. stock market
1:18started to feel different.
1:19At the open, U.S. software stocks surged.
1:22The mega-caps rose too.
1:24The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 2%.
1:26They were moving in opposite directions.
1:28But in the end, they all rallied back together.
1:31From 2025 into 2026,
1:32anyone watching the market daily knows
1:34AI semiconductor stocks and software giants
1:36often move in opposite directions.
1:39When one rises, the other falls.
1:40When one falls, the other rises.
1:42For a while, the market believed
1:44semiconductors were like vampires,
1:46sucking $800 billion from the tech giants,
1:48then turning around and killing software companies.
1:52In the end, the giants spent enormous
1:53amounts of money without generating revenue,
1:55while software was wiped out by an AI SaaS apocalypse.
1:57It was a lose-lose-lose story.
2:01Semiconductors were like vampires
2:02that eventually ran out of blood,
2:03so everyone died together.
2:05But recent earnings reports,
2:06especially Snowflake's yesterday,
2:08the earlier Salesforce results,
2:10and Dell's earnings,
2:12seem to have taught the market something:
2:14semiconductors, software, and the tech giants
2:17are not in a zero-sum game.
2:19It isn't a matter of one side surviving and the other losing.
2:21Everyone is making money,
2:22and growth is extremely fast.
2:25Software companies using AI are seeing revenue surge,
2:28especially from paid AI services.
2:29At the same time, demand for AI hardware
2:32and semiconductors remains visible far into the future.
2:34Not just through 2027,
2:35but potentially through 2028 and 2030.
2:38Dell discussed this in its earnings report.
2:40So market sentiment suddenly shifted last night.
2:44Add Tesla's Cybercab
2:46and OpenAI's Astra launch,
2:48and AI semiconductors and software
2:51started rising in sync.
2:53The trend reversed instantly.
2:54Both sides rose together.
2:56Semiconductors are not rebounding as fast as software.
2:58That's because software's
2:59earnings power had been underestimated,
3:01so it is now catching up.
3:03Semiconductors are different.
3:04The SOX is already up 60% this year.
3:06For it to launch another rally,
3:07earnings must validate the story again.
3:09That validation will come from earnings season
3:11from mid-October through early November.
3:14Looking at this timeline,
3:17you can see that November is crucial.
3:20The U.S. midterm elections conclude in early November.
3:23Something else also happens in November.
3:26Those of you in finance probably know:
3:28during November and December,
3:30in the United States,
3:31major investment banks, banks,
3:34and companies in the U.S. and worldwide
3:38issue forecasts for the U.S. and global economy in 2027,
3:40as well as their own business outlooks.
3:43These are year-end reviews and outlooks.
3:45Will the Federal Reserve raise rates by year-end?
3:47Will it raise rates in 2027?
3:48What will happen next year in semiconductors,
3:49software,
3:51and other businesses?
3:52How will they develop?
3:54There will be a broad view across mega-caps,
3:57banks, healthcare, and every other sector.
3:58Based on current earnings,
4:00overall profits are very strong.
4:02So statistically speaking,
4:05after the U.S. midterms conclude in November,
4:07from November through December,
4:09many uncertainties will be
4:11resolved through these discussions.
4:12Once they are settled,
4:14that uncertainty disappears.
4:15Historically speaking,
4:17six months after a midterm election,
4:20the Nasdaq has gained an average of 20.4%,
4:22and an average of 33% after one year.
4:25Those figures come from a Japanese investment bank.
4:27Different sources produce slightly different numbers.
4:29But remember:
4:30past performance does not guarantee the future.
4:32Still, the past can indicate future trends.
4:33The market will not rise in a straight line.
4:36There will be ups and downs.
4:39But we should be more optimistic about the future.
4:40Don't worry too much
4:41if AI semiconductor stocks are not rising right now.
4:42Take Broadcom, for example.
4:44Its earnings were excellent, yet the stock fell.
4:46The market has some concerns,
4:49but Broadcom's current and future earnings
4:51are essentially already locked in.
4:52Its CEO is generally very cautious
4:54about making grand promises.
4:57He does not set excessively high expectations.
4:58The company delivered a score of 100,
5:00but the market demanded 120.
5:01That created a gap.
5:05But I believe the market will eventually come back.
5:06Because in the stock market,
5:09consistent profits are what truly matter.
5:10As long as a company keeps making money
5:12and its earnings per share
5:13continue to grow,
5:15its stock price will come back.
5:16If you don't believe me,
5:17look at software stocks.
5:20Look at giants like Palantir, Microsoft, Google, and even Meta.
5:22Leading companies with strong moats
5:23may fall,
5:24but as long as profits keep growing
5:26and earnings per share keep rising,
5:28it does not take three to five years.
5:30Sometimes, within six to twelve months,
5:32the market suddenly understands.
5:33Investors rush back in,
5:35and the stock price recovers.
5:38So profitability is what truly matters.
5:39The entire market moves through rotations.
5:41After semiconductors, the mega-caps start rising.
5:44Then healthcare and financials take over.
5:45Once software finishes catching up
5:47through September, October, and November,
5:49AI semiconductor earnings in November
5:52could bring stronger performance.
5:55If October earnings for AI semiconductors are excellent,
5:58AI semiconductor stocks, including Taiwan names,
5:59and other stocks closely tied to AI
6:02will have a very high probability of rising.
6:03That's my personal view.
6:05I remain very optimistic.
6:06In investing terms,
6:08the probability of a new rally is very high.
6:11Investing is not about buying certainty.
6:13It is about buying uncertainty.
6:14If you want certainty,
6:16if you insist something must rise,
6:17your return will be
6:20like a bank certificate of deposit.
6:21When an outcome is certain,
6:23the return will inevitably be low.
6:24So whenever you see
6:26uncertainty suddenly disappear from a stock,
6:27because its results are excellent,
6:29the price can jump 30% in one day,
6:30or even 100%.
6:33Think of Palantir or Moderna,
6:34or Dell.
6:36They can suddenly jump 20% or 30%.
6:38The people who make money in stocks
6:40are brave investors with imagination.
6:42They thrive amid uncertainty about the future,
6:44when everyone else is hesitating,
6:45by boldly and firmly
6:47betting on a better future.
6:48That is how they make money.
6:50Look at SpaceX lately.
6:52Tesla is gaining momentum again.
6:54Tesla's autonomous taxi has officially launched.
6:55It costs $30,000 each,
6:56has no steering wheel,
6:58and drives itself the entire way.
6:59Elon Musk talked about this for years.
7:01Now it has finally become reality.
7:02At the G20 summit,
7:03Musk said
7:06one billion robots will emerge over the next decade.
7:08Think how much memory those robots will need,
7:10along with CPU and GPU computing power.
7:12We should have some confidence in the future
7:14and use our imagination.
7:15When researching these stocks
7:16and companies,
7:18you can also use the company pages on moomoo
7:19to see the trends.
7:21And all of this is completely free.
7:24Take Broadcom, ticker AVGO, which recently fell sharply.
7:25You can see at a glance
7:28that its earnings were actually excellent.
7:30Net income rose 216% year over year.
7:32The lowest analyst target is $400.
7:34The average is $529.
7:37But the stock is currently only $357.
7:42BofA analyst Vivek has an 85.7% success rate.
7:44His price target is $460.
7:45Further down the page,
7:46moomoo also provides free access
7:48to Morningstar research that normally costs hundreds per year.
7:50Morningstar's target is $650.
7:52Click through for a quick analysis
7:54of the company's fair value and economic moat,
7:55along with its risks and uncertainties.
7:57That helps you stay clear-headed in the market.
7:59Morningstar's fair value differs from
8:01a competitor's model I mentioned before.
8:03But I don't see any conflict between them.
8:05Both are useful references.
8:07There is also a visual company valuation tool below.
8:08Open it and you'll see
8:10why AVGO's rebound is currently slower.
8:12Its net income has grown more slowly
8:13than its market capitalization.
8:15The stock had previously risen too far.
8:16Net income had not caught up.
8:18But if you are bullish on Broadcom's future
8:20and believe its net income will catch up,
8:21then when the stock declines,
8:23you should pay closer attention to it.
8:24If you have questions, you can also click
8:26the free moomoo AI above.
8:28moomoo AI can now analyze your portfolio directly.
8:29It can tell whether your positions are too concentrated,
8:31whether your risk is increasing,
8:32and how to balance your asset allocation.
8:33It will explain all of that.
8:34You can even tell it,
8:36"I'm new to stock investing.
8:37If I want to invest a fixed amount regularly,
8:38how should I do it?"
8:40It will create a plan for you.
8:42moomoo AI can also help you place orders directly
8:44and find the most suitable options strategy.
8:46Stock research, asset allocation, and order placement
8:49can all be handled inside moomoo AI.
8:51Everyone should try its Expert Mode.
8:52Expert Mode
8:53provides visual chart analysis
8:54that is clear at a glance.
8:56The fundamental data I just discussed,
8:57Morningstar research, and AI analysis
9:00are all part of moomoo's new moomoo engine.
9:01It brings everything you need
9:03to research a stock into one app.
9:05You no longer need several platforms.
9:06moomoo offers generous benefits to new users.
9:08New U.S. users who open and fund an account may
9:11receive up to $1,000 in free Nvidia stock.
9:12Idle cash can also earn
9:14an annualized rate of up to 8.1%.
9:16Fund your account before September 30 for an extra bonus.
9:18A $100 deposit can earn
9:19up to $200 in cash coupons.
9:21Don't miss these benefits.
9:22The account-opening link is in the pinned
9:24comment or the description.
9:24With moomoo,
9:25all of us can
9:27enjoy many free benefits.
9:28I'm also very happy to share
9:30this information with everyone for free.
9:32That is how the U.S. stock market works.
9:33Once uncertainty becomes certainty,
9:35whether the news is good or bad,
9:37the stock price stabilizes.
9:37Then, as the company's
9:40earnings per share gradually rise,
9:42the stock finds an upward direction.
9:45Beyond uncertainty around the midterm elections,
9:46the big question for U.S. stocks is whether
9:48rates will be raised in September,
9:50and whether oil prices will keep climbing.
9:51Remember,
9:53these outcomes are driven by people.
9:53Whether rates are raised,
9:55and whether the war ends,
9:57depends on Trump, Bessent,
10:00and Kevin Warsh.
10:01There is another major event tonight:
10:03the nonfarm payrolls report.
10:05A K-shaped economy is emerging worldwide.
10:06The U.S. is no exception.
10:07Consumer spending is very weak.
10:09Be careful with consumer stocks.
10:11Walmart's results were already weak.
10:14And Lululemon plunged 18% yesterday.
10:15What happened?
10:19Can Americans no longer afford yoga pants?
10:20I think I owned Lululemon stock
10:22seven or eight years ago.
10:24Before buying it, I visited one of its stores
10:25and stood there all afternoon,
10:27watching how many people bought its pants.
10:28The store was packed.
10:31Many women bought three pairs at once,
10:33even though each pair cost over $100.
10:34When I saw that crowd,
10:36I bought my wife a pair of yoga pants
10:37and bought the stock as well.
10:40I rode the momentum and made some money.
10:42I saw that famous short seller Michael Burry
10:44went long Lululemon above $250.
10:47Now the stock has fallen sharply.
10:48I didn't understand his purchase at the time.
10:50Over the years, Lululemon
10:51has closed so many stores.
10:53Why would he still buy the stock?
10:54And with America's K-shaped economy,
10:57people cannot afford such expensive pants.
10:58Lululemon said in its earnings report
11:01that yoga-pants sales fell 20%.
11:02Both results and guidance disappointed badly.
11:04Looking at that,
11:06and at consumer stocks like Nike,
11:07I expect
11:08tonight's U.S. nonfarm payroll data
11:11may show a relatively weak labor market.
11:12If it is weak,
11:15a September U.S. rate hike becomes less likely.
11:17There is also some good news.
11:18Last night,
11:20Reuters interviewed Federal Reserve Governor
11:22Christopher Waller.
11:26He said that although inflation remains above the 2% target,
11:28recent data have shown
11:31encouraging signs that inflation is cooling.
11:33The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July,
11:35while remaining historically low.
11:37Technology upgrades at AI data centers
11:40are driving rapid growth in business investment.
11:42If economic data over the next two weeks
11:45continue to confirm cooling inflation,
11:48he would be inclined at the September policy meeting
11:53to support keeping the federal funds rate unchanged.
11:54After he said that,
11:55the market immediately relaxed.
11:56In U.S. trading yesterday,
11:59software and hardware stocks rose together.
12:01But his view is not definitive.
12:02Whether rates rise still depends on
12:04Kevin Warsh.
12:06That is moderately good news.
12:09But even better news may be coming.
12:11Oil prices
12:14could fall soon.
12:15In the Strait of Hormuz,
12:17the fighting is still continuing,
12:20but oil shipments have already resumed.
12:21On Wednesday,
12:24U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said
12:26more than 17 million barrels of oil passed
12:28through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
12:30That was the highest level since the U.S.-Iran war
12:32broke out in late February.
12:35On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby
12:36and her team told clients
12:38in a report
12:39that Gulf oil exports had recovered
12:42to 15 million to 16 million barrels per day,
12:45about two-thirds of prewar levels.
12:47After 15 to 20 days in transit,
12:49once this oil reaches the U.S. and Asia,
12:50oil prices will fall,
12:52and inflation will ease.
12:55That benefits gold, the Nasdaq, and chip stocks.
12:57There are many islands off the coast of Oman.
13:00Because the Earth is round and has curvature,
13:01people standing on the Iranian side
13:04cannot see tankers on the Omani side,
13:06especially small and midsize tankers.
13:08Iran has now lost its radar,
13:09and it has no air force.
13:11Attacks on commercial ships rely entirely on eyesight.
13:14So the U.S. military is now using small tankers
13:16in a quick-dash strategy,
13:17moving them out one by one
13:19to carry oil through the strait.
13:20Once they are safely out,
13:23the oil is transferred to massive ocean-going tankers
13:25and shipped away.
13:26This approach is slow,
13:28but the oil will keep flowing out.
13:31The U.S. has also begun attacking Iranian tankers.
13:33If Iran attacks someone else's tanker,
13:35the U.S. responds tanker for tanker,
13:37directly attacking an Iranian tanker.
13:38What does Iran fear most?
13:41It fears losing the lifeline of its oil economy.
13:42If the regime runs out of money
13:44and cannot pay the Revolutionary Guard,
13:46the domestic economy will collapse
13:47and civil unrest will erupt.
13:49When the money runs out,
13:51ideological loyalty may collapse too.
13:53Traitors could emerge
13:54inside Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
13:56Someone only needs to send a few coordinates,
13:58and Iran's clerical leaders could
14:00be decapitated by Israel and the U.S. military.
14:02That is what they fear most.
14:03There is more good news for lower oil prices.
14:05The U.S. and Venezuela
14:07signed a 65-billion-barrel oil agreement.
14:09The turning point may not arrive
14:10until the end of the year.
14:12Trump faces the midterm elections in November,
14:15so he will make sure tankers bring
14:17Venezuelan oil to the U.S. for sale in November,
14:19bringing oil prices down.
14:21All of these are the reasons
14:24I'm very bullish on October and November,
14:26with the market potentially
14:28starting its rally into December.
14:29But this is still only a forecast.
14:31Markets are inherently unpredictable.
14:34Will the rally begin in October?
14:37Could the Democrats counterattack during the election?
14:39Could they release more damaging information,
14:41or could another black swan emerge
14:43and send the stock market plunging again?
14:45That remains uncertain.
14:47But remember, optimism comes from
14:49earnings per share
14:52continuing to grow at the most fundamental level.
14:55Even if the stock price does not rise,
14:57as long as you watch its earnings per share
14:59and see them rising,
15:00you can remain confident.
15:02The stock may not be rising now,
15:03but it will eventually recover.
15:04This is one of the fundamental
15:06principles of stock investing.
15:08So stay optimistic over the medium to long term,
15:10but remain cautious in the short term.
15:12Pessimists are always right.
15:13The risks are always there.
15:15But optimists are the ones who make money.
15:17Don't forget to use my link.
15:19Open a moomoo account now and claim the welcome package.
15:21Thank you, everyone.
15:21See you next time.

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This page contains the full transcript of 美股Ai半導體要關注了！AI投資發財最後的機會，就在9月-11月！錯過，你就被AI取代。 by 尼可拉斯楊Live精, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 2,818 words across 488 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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