"AI 칩 값, 하늘로 날아간다" 차마스 팔리하피티야의 제언 — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:05How will the value of computing change
2. 0:07in the future?
3. 0:09Chamath Palihapitiya, host of the US
4. 0:11economic podcast "All-In," delivered
5. 0:13this verdict on November 7, 2026.
6. 0:16First, the cost of renting an AI chip
7. 0:19for an hour will skyrocket.
8. 0:32Second, chips are in surplus, but
9. 0:33electricity is what’s in short supply.
10. 0:36Third, OpenAI and Anthropic are tenants
11. 0:39, so they could be evicted.
12. 0:52Fourth, Musk can kick Anthropic out in
13. 0:55just 90 days.
14. 0:57The evidence and verdict sections are
15. 0:59currently empty.
16. 1:00To see if this verdict holds true, I
17. 1:02will call in witnesses and fill them in
18. 1:03one by one.
19. 1:04This isn't a story about the collapse of
20. 1:07AI stocks.
21. 1:08It is a story about why computers, which
22. 1:10had only ever become cheaper, are
23. 1:11starting to get expensive.
24. 1:13First, let's look at what happened that
25. 1:15week.
26. 1:17In the US midterm elections on November
27. 1:193, Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa
28. 1:21defeated incumbent Governor Greg Abbott
29. 1:23in Texas.
30. 1:34Two days later, on November 5, about $
31. 1:362.9 trillion vanished from the US S&P
32. 1:39500 index in a single day.
33. 1:42The financial news outlet MarketWatch
34. 1:44called it the largest single-day loss in
35. 1:46history, and Chamath's verdict came two
36. 1:48days after that.
37. 1:50Chamath’s logic is as follows.
38. 1:53When it becomes difficult to build new
39. 1:54data centers, Big Tech companies that
40. 1:56already own them come out on top.
41. 1:59Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and
42. 2:02Musk's SpaceX.
43. 2:04Conversely, companies that rent data
44. 2:06centers from others become mere tenants
45. 2:08.
46. 2:25Then he pulls out a contract.
47. 2:28It is a contract under which Musk’s
48. 2:30SpaceX rents out computers to Anthropic
49. 2:32.
50. 2:42Chamath estimated that if they renewed
51. 2:44at current market rates, the price would
52. 2:46double or triple, but this figure is his
53. 2:48own guess and I could not find
54. 2:50supporting data.
55. 2:52There is one thing to point out before
56. 2:53we proceed. Another host of this show
57. 2:55mentioned that he bought up SpaceX
58. 2:57shares while the stock price was
59. 2:59volatile. The first line. The cost of
60. 3:02renting an AI chip for an hour will
61. 3:04skyrocket.
62. 3:06Computing was originally something that
63. 3:07got cheaper over time, with the
64. 3:09available computing power for the same
65. 3:10price doubling every two and a half
66. 3:12years.
67. 3:13AI chips were the same.
68. 3:16The price of renting an Nvidia H100 chip
69. 3:19on a one-year contract was around $ 3
70. 3:21per hour in the first half of 2023, and
71. 3:24it dropped to $ 1.70 by October 2025.
72. 3:28But after that, the trend shifted.
73. 3:30Half a year later, in March 2026, it was
74. 3:34$ 2.35. That is an increase of nearly 40
75. 3:36%.
76. 3:38Amazon lowered its AI chip server prices
77. 3:41by up to 45%in June 2025, but in October
78. 3:442026, it raised its reservation fees by
79. 3:46about 15%.
80. 3:49Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says the following
81. 3:51.
82. 4:05>> Google CEO Sundar Pichai says the same
83. 4:17thing. The numbers confirm it as well.
84. 4:20Up 40%in half a year—it’s fair to say
85. 4:23it’s skyrocketed.
86. 4:25First change.
87. 4:26Computers, once always getting cheaper,
88. 4:28are now getting expensive.
89. 4:30Second.
90. 4:31Chips are in surplus, but electricity is
91. 4:33in short supply.
92. 4:35Musk said this back in February 2026.
93. 5:05A year earlier, Microsoft CEO Satya
94. 5:07Nadella was already experiencing that
95. 5:09reality.
96. 5:25To plug in chips, you need a data center
97. 5:28with power, but vacancy in Northern
98. 5:31Virginia is at 0.24%.
99. 5:34There is practically no space left, and
100. 5:36rent has risen by an average of 9%every
101. 5:39year since 2020.
102. 5:41Second change.
103. 5:43The value of computing is shifting from
104. 5:45chips to electricity and real estate.
105. 5:49Third point. OpenAI and Anthropic are
106. 5:52tenants and could be evicted.
107. 5:55Landlords take their share before
108. 5:57renting out to others.
109. 6:16>> And then comes the tenants 'own
110. 6:17admission.
111. 6:19This is an official document filed by
112. 6:21Anthropic with the SEC ahead of their
113. 6:23IPO.
114. 6:25They wrote that wealthy big tech
115. 6:27competitors could outbid them for
116. 6:29limited computing power, and if cloud
117. 6:31providers prioritize their own needs,
118. 6:33their access could be reduced or cut off
119. 6:35.
120. 6:36Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei also speaks
121. 6:39of the opposite risk.
122. 6:55Borrow too much and you go bankrupt;
123. 6:57borrow too little and you get left
124. 6:58behind.
125. 7:00Of course, Anthropic has pre-contracted
126. 7:02about $ 895.4 billion worth of computing
127. 7:05power.
128. 7:07Yet, that very contract says it could be
129. 7:09cut off.
130. 7:11Third change.
131. 7:13The value lies with the owner, not the
132. 7:16renter.
133. 7:17Fourth point. Musk can kick out
134. 7:20Anthropic in 90 days.
135. 7:22This clause actually exists.
136. 7:25It is written identically in the
137. 7:26official documents of both Anthropic and
138. 7:29SpaceX.
139. 7:30Either side can terminate the contract
140. 7:32with 90 days' notice.
141. 7:34Musk wrote this on X in May 2026.
142. 7:39He said that if a severe shortage occurs
143. 7:40, he might reach a point where he has to
144. 7:42reclaim the leased computing power.
145. 7:46He did say the same day he wouldn't let
146. 7:48that happen to Anthropic, but once words
147. 7:50are spoken, they cannot be taken back.
148. 7:53Musk gains the ability to play this card
149. 7:56starting in January and March 2027.
150. 7:59After that, 90 days is all it takes.
151. 8:02Fourth change. Even long-term contracts
152. 8:04can be renegotiated at any time.
153. 8:07Let's go back. First point, up 40%in
154. 8:11half a year, it has skyrocketed. Second
155. 8:14point, chips are piling up in warehouses
156. 8:16, but electricity is short.
157. 8:18Third point, tenants themselves admitted
158. 8:21they could be evicted. Fourth point,
159. 8:24they can be kicked out in 90 days.
160. 8:26However, one piece of evidence Chamath
161. 8:28cited is different.
162. 8:37Chamath claimed Google evicted the
163. 8:39tenant Crusoe the day after the election
164. 8:41, but Crusoe had actually left that
165. 8:44project five months earlier, in June.
166. 8:47It had nothing to do with the election,
167. 8:49and this evidence was incorrect.
168. 8:57I calculated it one by one, just as
169. 8:58Chamath said.
170. 9:00Four lines were correct, but one piece
171. 9:02of evidence was wrong.
172. 9:03This is not just someone else's problem
173. 9:05for Korea either.
174. 9:06Memory was the first component
175. 9:07identified as a potential supply chain
176. 9:09bottleneck, and six out of every ten
177. 9:11DRAM chips worldwide are made by Samsung
178. 9:13Electronics and SK Hynix.
179. 9:16Now, we will fill in the final line of
180. 9:18the verdict.
181. 9:20Verdict.
182. 9:21The value of computing now comes not
183. 9:23from the chip, but from where the
184. 9:24electricity flows in.
185. 9:26The next verdict will be delivered in
186. 9:29the spring of 2027, the day Musk can
187. 9:31play his 90-day card.