YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → 世界中の投資家が大量に売り始めたきっかけ…AI・半導体相場で今、何が起きているのか？｜私たち個人投資家は何をするべきなのか【元ゴールドマンサックスが徹底解説】

世界中の投資家が大量に売り始めたきっかけ…AI・半導体相場で今、何が起きているのか？｜私たち個人投資家は何をするべきなのか【元ゴールドマンサックスが徹底解説】 — Transcript

by おーちゃん【元外銀マン】 · 6,233 words · 963 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00Hi everyone, it's O-chan. Today, I want
0:02to talk about how cracks are finally
0:04starting to show in massive AI
0:06investments.
0:07As you know, AI and semiconductors have
0:10driven both the Nikkei 225 and the S&P
0:12500 for the past few years, but the
0:15lingering question has always been: what
0:17if all that massive capital poured into
0:20AI can't be recovered?
0:22And this issue, regardless of whether
0:24you hold AI-related stocks or not, is
0:26hitting closer to home than you might
0:28think.
0:30The company I'm focusing on today is
0:32Oracle, an American firm that builds and
0:34leases data centers for AI companies
0:36like OpenAI.
0:39In September 2026, Oracle announced that
0:42they might not be able to proceed as
0:44promised with the roughly 26 trillion
0:46yen data center project they are working
0:49on with OpenAI. By failing to fulfill
0:51this data center contract, Oracle has
0:53lost market confidence, and the cost of
0:55insurance against their potential
0:56collapse has even surpassed the levels
0:58seen during the Lehman Shock. The rising
1:00cost of this insurance reflects an
1:02increasing number of people who believe
1:04the company might go under—in other
1:06words, there is more concern now about
1:08Oracle collapsing than there was during
1:11the Lehman crisis.
1:12As I've shown many times before, Oracle
1:15sits at the very center of the money
1:17flow in today’s AI and semiconductor
1:19market; if they crumble, the entire
1:21sector will undoubtedly be shaken. Since
1:24AI investment currently accounts for
1:25over a third of America's economic
1:27growth, instability in the AI and
1:29semiconductor market means instability
1:31for the US economy and, by extension,
1:33the global economy itself. I know saying
1:35this will invite comments like "You're
1:37just fear-mongering, O-chan,""AI is just
1:39getting started, so it'll be fine," or "
1:41It’s almost the end of the year," but
1:43please, just take a deep breath and calm
1:44down for a second. In a previous video,
1:47I talked about how AI companies are
1:49funding each other, and if one stumbles
1:51, it creates a chain reaction. Today,
1:53we’re looking at how that chain reaction
1:55extends beyond the U.S. and is now
1:57reaching our local banks. Actually, the
1:59massive funding for Oracle's data
2:01centers was led by Japan's own Sumitomo
2:04Mitsui Banking Corporation and
2:06Mitsubishi UFJ.
2:08Not only that, but Japan's three major
2:11banks accounted for about 20%of global
2:13data center financing in 2025, with
2:15their current loans to U.S. data centers
2:18totaling 5 trillion yen.
2:21Meanwhile, the total annual profit
2:23generated by those three banks is about
2:255.2 trillion yen. If these data center
2:27loans were to go bad, it would
2:29effectively wipe out an entire year’s
2:31worth of profit for the Japanese banks
2:33where we deposit our money every day.
2:35This means the tremors are already
2:37reaching the banks familiar to us here
2:39in Japan. So, in this video, I’ll
2:42explain the future of the global economy
2:44centered on the U.S., the risks looming
2:46over the All-Country and S&P 500 indices
2:49, and what we as individual investors
2:51should do. I’ll break it down more
2:53clearly than anywhere else, so even a
2:55neighbor would understand—grab a pen and
2:58notebook, get comfortable, and listen
3:00closely. Yes. I’m a man in my 30s with a
3:02background like this. I’ve actually hurt
3:05my lower back recently. So I’m a bit
3:07troubled by that. Yes. I am currently
3:09developing villas in places like Rusutsu
3:11and Niseko in Hokkaido. I share content
3:14on social media, like Instagram and X,
3:16and I’m also invited to various programs
3:18. I’ve also written a book, which is
3:21currently on sale. As for my future
3:22goals, I want to help increase your
3:24assets so that one day you can buy a
3:26vest with your investment profits, and I
3:28am aiming to reach 400,000 subscribers.
3:30This channel is where I share insights
3:32based on my various life experiences,
3:34and I also host live streams, so please
3:37make sure to join us. Before we dive
3:39into the main topic, I have a quick
3:41announcement: today, I’ll be talking
3:43about how a fund managing 7 trillion yen
3:45lost 5.5 trillion yen in just one month
3:47. I’ve organized a day for you to think
3:50for yourselves about where money moves
3:52behind the scenes when news like this
3:53breaks.
3:54On Sunday, November 15th, at Toranomon
3:56Hills, we’re holding the channel’s
3:59first-ever live event. It’s not a day
4:01for me to just lecture at the venue.
4:03I’ll present actual news stories, and at
4:05each table, you will discuss and think
4:07for yourselves about where the money
4:09will move next.
4:11For the answer key, I will then show you
4:13exactly which sectors and which stocks
4:15actually went up. I won’t be telling you
4:18which stocks you should buy. I’ll show
4:19you everything that happened in the past
4:21, but just because you understand a
4:23video doesn't mean you can think for
4:24yourself when the next news comes. This
4:26is a day to try that out once at the
4:28venue. You’re doing your monthly
4:29contributions. But you haven’t decided
4:31what to do after that. Those are the
4:32people I want to see there. It’s from
4:341:00 PM to 5:00 PM, and the
4:35participation fee is 3,000 yen.
4:37Applications are open until Sunday,
4:39November 8th, followed by a lottery.
4:41Only those selected will receive payment
4:43instructions, so there is no cost at the
4:45time of application. Please use the link
4:47at the top of the description or the QR
4:48code here. Now, let’s get into the main
4:51topic. First, let me start by talking
4:53about what’s inside your brokerage
4:54accounts. If you are investing in the S
4:56&P 500 or All Country funds, have you
4:58ever looked at your monthly report’s top
5:01holdings? Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon,
5:03Meta—even if you haven't, it’s fine. The
5:06top of the list is always the same
5:08lineup, so today’s main characters are
5:10these four companies plus Oracle—the
5:12so-called hyperscalers that are building
5:14AI data centers like crazy. In other
5:16words, these are the massive tech
5:17companies that keep building huge data
5:19centers all over the world, and they
5:21currently have hundreds of trillions of
5:23yen in payment commitments piling up off
5:25their balance sheets. Since the start of
5:282026, international financial media
5:30outlets have begun calling this "hidden
5:33debt." Some headlines mention 160
5:35trillion yen in hidden debt, while other
5:37calculations estimate it as high as 480
5:40trillion yen. With Japan's GDP at about
5:42600 trillion yen, this means nearly 80%
5:44of that amount in financing exists off
5:47the balance sheets of the world's
5:49leading lenders. To clarify right away,
5:51I will not be discussing national debt
5:53at all today. This isn't about US fiscal
5:55deficits, Japanese government bonds, or
5:57state debt; the focus is entirely on
5:59corporations. Specifically, the debt
6:01within the very funds you are investing
6:03in every month. The flow of AI money is
6:05already mired in various controversies,
6:06such as allegations of circular
6:08investment involving NVIDIA. There is
6:10already a lot of talk about that, but
6:11today I want to discuss the most
6:13mysterious and significant debt issue of
6:15all. Now, some of you might be wondering
6:17, "Hidden debt at Big Tech?
6:20Aren't those companies flush with cash
6:22and have nothing to do with debt?" That
6:25assessment is still correct. Until a few
6:27years ago, US Big Tech companies had
6:29almost zero debt and so much excess cash
6:31they didn't know what to do with it—
6:33they had the cleanest balance sheets in
6:35the world. That is precisely why today’s
6:37mystery boils down to two questions.
6:38First, why have these top-tier companies
6:41begun piling up payment obligations at
6:43such a ferocious pace? Second, why did
6:45they go out of their way to hide a
6:47portion of it?
6:48To give you the conclusion in one word,
6:50the "hidden place" is actually a donut.
6:53Yes. I realize that makes no sense. It’s
6:56okay.
6:56By the end of this video, you will
6:58understand the meaning of that word and
7:00how it connects to your monthly
7:02investments.
7:03Let’s first look at the front side to
7:05see what has happened to those
7:06world-class balance sheets. The debt
7:08that is actually recorded on their books
7:10might be surprising, but looking at the
7:12disclosures as of the end of June 2026,
7:14it remains healthy. In the case of
7:15Alphabet and Microsoft, they actually
7:17have more cash on hand than debt. They
7:19are essentially debt-free. As for the
7:22remaining companies, their debt ratios
7:24relative to profits and equity are at or
7:26below the average for US IT firms. They
7:29have plenty of room to cover interest
7:30payments, with two out of the five
7:32companies earning more in interest on
7:33their cash holdings than they pay out
7:35for their debt. In other words, they are
7:37maintaining a positive balance on their
7:39interest income and expenses. The only
7:40exception is Oracle; the weight of its
7:42debt stands out above the rest, so
7:44please keep this name in mind as it will
7:46come up again later. It makes you think
7:48they’re in good health, doesn't it? But
7:50what we just looked at are only the
7:51numbers recorded on the books. The
7:53problem is that there are four types of
7:54commitments that don't appear on the
7:56balance sheet. First, non-cancellable
7:58purchase obligations. These are
7:59contracts to continue buying chips like
8:01NVIDIA’s in the future, as well as power
8:03contracts for data centers and
8:04agreements to rent cloud services from
8:06others. Power contracts, in particular,
8:08often come with "take-or-pay" clauses,
8:10meaning you pay regardless of whether
8:12you use the power or not. From the power
8:14company's side, they can't move forward
8:16without a guarantee that they can recoup
8:17their massive investments in power
8:19plants, so they secure a commitment to
8:20purchase beforehand. Second, commitments
8:22for capital investment and construction
8:24. These include funding obligations for
8:26joint ventures, totaling 16 trillion yen
8:29across the companies. Third, leases that
8:31haven't begun yet. There are cases where
8:33a data center lease has been signed, but
8:35the move-in date is several years away.
8:37Since they haven't moved in yet, it
8:39doesn't appear on the books. Fourth,
8:41guarantees. This is the core of today’s
8:43discussion. I will dedicate an entire
8:44section to this later. You might be
8:46wondering, if you are legally bound by a
8:48contract, why isn't it considered a debt
8:51? Actually, this isn't fraud or a
8:52loophole; it is a globally accepted
8:54accounting standard. Contracts where
8:56goods or services have not yet been
8:58received are not recorded as liabilities
9:00. In a household budget, you wouldn't
9:02write down two years of future rent or
9:03phone bills as 2 million yen in debt,
9:05would you? It follows the same logic:
9:07expenses and liabilities are recorded
9:09sequentially as the items or services
9:10arrive. However, just because it’s
9:12compliant with the rules doesn’t mean
9:14it’s risk-free; the real question is,
9:16what if the total amount of that "
9:18future rent" is completely outside the
9:20bounds of common sense? I will show you
9:22that amount right after this. But before
9:24that, I need to talk about something
9:25fundamental to how you build your wealth
9:27, which underlies everything we’re
9:29discussing today. It’s a bit of a detour
9:31, but there is a crucial concept I
9:32always emphasize: have you ever thought
9:34about "discontinuous change"? Most of
9:36you probably think I’ve suddenly veered
9:37off from talking about Big Tech debt
9:39into some vague, roundabout topic, but
9:40if you don’t listen carefully to what
9:41I’m about to say, you might feel like it
9:43doesn’t resonate or that it’s boring. It
9:45might end up sounding like "What is he
9:46even talking about?", so please listen
9:48closely. For those it hits, it will
9:50really hit home. I know all you "
9:51Oza-chill" viewers watching this channel
9:53are diligently investing a little every
9:54month. Of course, I’m sure some of you
9:56are primarily focused on individual
9:57stocks. This time, the topic is relevant
9:59to everyone, whether you're focused on
10:00individual stocks or building your
10:01wealth steadily through regular
10:03contributions. So, let’s start by
10:04organizing our premises; I believe this
10:06is the common, conventional wisdom about
10:08wealth building in today’s world. You
10:10contribute a little every month, and it
10:12grows bit by bit; it's the idea of using
10:14the asset of "time"—which is equal for
10:16Buffett, Masako-san, or any of you—to
10:19your advantage, which is incredibly
10:20earnest and, I think, super correct. As
10:23I’ve mentioned in past videos,
10:24dollar-cost averaging is a mechanism
10:25designed to stabilize this straight line
10:27. Building on that, I’ve also talked
10:29about how you shouldn't just stick to
10:30passive accumulation, but also consider
10:31an offensive strategy and adopt an
10:33investment mindset. Now, let’s return to
10:35the previous topic: the concept of
10:36discontinuous change. It sounds like a
10:38grand term, but when you look at a life
10:40in a straight line, the moments that
10:42change your life almost without
10:43exception happen suddenly, pivoted on a
10:45single point. Whether it’s a sudden
10:46shift in income, a change in the speed
10:48at which your assets grow, or an
10:49increase in your life’s options—those
10:50are the types of changes I mean. It
10:52might sound like something that only
10:53happens to people with special talents
10:55or the select few, but in fact, this
10:56happens in your own life too—take
10:58entrance exams, landing a job, or
10:59changing careers, for instance. And the
11:01reason you are watching this video with
11:02the desire to grow your assets is likely
11:04because, in the past, after watching
11:05just one YouTube video, you found the
11:07courage—despite the fear of losing money
11:09—to open a brokerage account and set up
11:10an investment plan. Isn't it because you
11:12triggered a small "extraordinary"
11:14outcome? What you all have in common is
11:15that you believed in a single choice and
11:17took a small step of action. Let me
11:18state the biggest weakness of
11:19accumulation investing right here.
11:21Accumulation does not create "
11:22extraordinary" results. Even if you
11:24invest, increase your monthly
11:25contributions, or continue for ten years
11:26, your fundamental life position won't
11:28change; while it’s a perfect defense,
11:29it’s not a speed-up mechanism. So, what
11:31should you do next? Let me pose one
11:33question here. If this investment plan
11:35goes well, how will your life change? If
11:37you get stuck for an answer here, that
11:39is your answer. Many people only think
11:40about how much they will have in the
11:42future, what the annual return
11:43percentage is, or what things will look
11:44like in 20 years. The question you
11:46should consider next isn't that; it’s
11:47what winning strategy are you aiming for
11:49? Many who keep investing have a "not
11:51losing" strategy and a "not failing"
11:52strategy, but they don't have a single "
11:54winning" strategy. This is the most
11:56dangerous part, so please don't
11:57misunderstand: "extraordinary" results
11:59aren't about one-shot reversals or
12:00gambling; they are something you
12:02intentionally aim to create. Where you
12:04spend your time, where you focus your
12:05attention, how you go after information
12:07, and what judgments you make—you must
12:08concentrate these into one place.
12:10Accumulation is insurance to protect
12:11your life. There is no doubt about that
12:13. But just having insurance without
12:15taking on challenges means truly nothing
12:16will happen. The main thing I want to
12:17convey today is that if you are going to
12:19keep investing, you must think about
12:20this one thing. Where are you going to
12:21go to create your "extraordinary" result
12:23? It is a waste to continue just
12:24investing without ever asking yourself
12:26this question. Since the answer varies
12:27from person to person, I won't give a
12:29specific answer like "do this," but if I
12:30were to offer a "Shite-o-chan style"
12:31answer, it would be to reach a state
12:33where you can interpret finance and the
12:34economy on your own. I’ve mentioned this
12:36many times on this channel: it’s all an
12:37association game. For example, the
12:38contract mentioned earlier today to keep
12:40buying chips into the future. Usually,
12:41people just think, "Wow, that's a huge
12:43amount of money." And that’s where it
12:44ends. But if you follow the associations
12:46, it goes like this: promising to buy
12:49years 'worth of chips means the chip
12:51factories can invest in increased
12:53production without doubting demand. If
12:55factory construction begins, orders will
12:57go to companies supplying manufacturing
12:59equipment, inspection tools, and special
13:01materials before the chips themselves.
13:03In other words, one simple disclosure
13:05about a non-cancellable contract lets
13:07you see the giants' orders years in
13:09advance. From a single piece of news,
13:10you can trace where the money will flow
13:12next. This is what I mean by an
13:14association game. The moment you can do
13:15this, every single piece of news that
13:17comes out daily turns into study
13:18material for growing your assets. You
13:20start seeing paths to victory in
13:22information you used to just pass by.
13:23This is on a different level than just
13:25increasing your monthly savings; this is
13:27deliberate association. Of course, you
13:29can't learn how to read these things in
13:31seven days. It requires building up
13:33knowledge, but once you do, your world
13:35changes in an instant. Once your mind
13:37starts connecting the dots, the news
13:39looks completely different. That’s why
13:41this is an association game. So, I
13:42regularly host free study sessions on
13:45how to think and analyze through this
13:47association game, and about 3,000 people
13:49are currently participating. It’s called
13:51the "10x Asset Roadmap," and while I’d
13:53love to meet everyone offline, I hold it
13:55online so people across the country can
13:56join. Participants receive a PDF called
13:59"The High-Speed Asset Formation Strategy
14:01," which covers how to go beyond just
14:03index funds, macroeconomic insights, and
14:05a roadmap from 1 million to 10 million
14:07yen, all the way to financial
14:08independence. You can join via the link
14:10or QR code, and I’d be happy if it
14:12served as a catalyst for your success.
14:14Alright, let’s get back to the main
14:16topic. We discussed how the 110 trillion
14:18yen in debt on the books is still
14:20healthy, but there are four types of
14:22off-book commitments, and the amount of
14:24future rent not yet due might be beyond
14:27conventional imagination. Starting from
14:29here, we will build up the numbers based
14:31on non-cancellable purchase contracts.
14:33The total for the five companies exceeds
14:36240 trillion yen, with Alphabet standing
14:38out at approximately 130 trillion yen
14:41alone as of the end of June 2026. Since
14:43Japan's general account budget is 115
14:45trillion yen, the "future purchase list
14:47" of Google's parent company alone
14:49exceeds Japan's national budget, a sum
14:51that could essentially buy Japan.
14:53Moreover, this figure was only about 53
14:54trillion yen in the disclosure three
14:56months ago. In just one quarter, it has
14:58increased by approximately 77 trillion
15:00yen. Second place is Meta at 56 trillion
15:02yen. These two companies have
15:04effectively committed an amount
15:05equivalent to half of their total assets
15:07to future payments, and next, the third
15:09category—leases that haven't even
15:11started—exceeds 160 trillion yen in
15:13total for the five firms. Since the
15:14total interest-bearing debt and leases
15:16currently on the books for these five
15:18firms is 110 trillion yen, the rent
15:20waiting off the books is nearly 1.5
15:22times the existing debt. Meta leads here
15:25as well, at 45 trillion yen as of the
15:27end of June 2026. Even that wasn't
15:29enough, and in just the month of July,
15:31they signed an additional 11 trillion
15:33yen in lease agreements. Furthermore,
15:35the contract start dates are staggered
15:37up until 2036, with ultra-long terms
15:39ranging from one to 30 years. Let’s
15:41pause for a moment. If you feel like
15:43there are so many trillions of yen that
15:44you’ve lost track of which figure is
15:46which, that is a perfectly normal
15:47reaction. Today's structure can be
15:49divided into three levels. The debt on
15:51the books is 110 trillion yen, which is
15:53healthy, but outside of that, there are
15:55non-cancellable promises to buy and rent
15:57that are several times that amount. And
15:59finally, there are companies that have
16:01even placed the debt itself off the
16:02books, rather than just promises. This
16:04is where the third level begins. This is
16:06the resolution of the donut mentioned at
16:08the beginning. Meta is currently
16:09building Hyperion in Louisiana, one of
16:12the world's largest AI data centers,
16:14with a total cost exceeding 8 trillion
16:16yen. However, they are not building it
16:18under their own name. They partnered
16:19with Blue Owl, a major US asset
16:21management firm, to create a separate
16:23entity, keeping Meta's ownership stake
16:25to just 20%. This is the trick: if the
16:27investment is less than 50%, the
16:29separate company is not included in
16:30Meta's consolidated accounting. No
16:32matter how much debt that company takes
16:34on, it doesn't appear as a liability on
16:36Meta's books, only as an investment
16:38valuation under the equity method. In
16:40the industry, such companies are called
16:42SPVs, or Special Purpose Vehicles. It's
16:44the method used when you don't want to
16:46stain your own balance sheet. It has a
16:47fancy name, but in short, it’s just a
16:49shell company created solely for this
16:51transaction. And in October 2025, this
16:53shell issued approximately 4.4 trillion
16:55yen in corporate bonds. As a single
16:57issuance, it is one of the largest
16:59corporate bond offerings in the market.
17:01The name of this shell is Beignet
17:03Investors. "Beignet" is a
17:04Louisiana-style square donut covered in
17:06powdered sugar; the "hiding place"
17:08mentioned at the start refers to this
17:10donut, and this is the reveal. The
17:12holder of over 4 trillion yen in debt is
17:14, in fact, the donut. You might think, "
17:16If a separate company borrowed it, then
17:18it’s not Meta’s debt, right?" There are
17:20two facts that answer that question.
17:22First, the sole tenant to rent this
17:24completed facility since 2009 is Meta
17:26alone. In other words, the donut
17:28company's only source of income is the
17:29rent paid by Meta. Second, Meta has
17:31provided a residual value guarantee
17:33equivalent to nearly the entire amount.
17:35You might find the term "residual value
17:37guarantee" confusing, but essentially,
17:39it’s a promise that if this shell can’t
17:41pay or the asset value falls short, Meta
17:44will cover the difference. The income
17:46source is Meta, the guarantor is Meta,
17:48yet on the books, it isn't Meta's debt.
17:51This method of keeping debt off the
17:53books is called "off-balance sheet" in
17:55the financial world, and Meta has done
17:57the same thing once more. For their new
17:59data center in El Paso, Texas, they
18:02partnered with the world's largest asset
18:04manager, BlackRock, to issue about 2
18:06trillion yen in bonds through another
18:08shell in August 2026. The name of this
18:11box is SOPII Investor, which is very
18:13hard to pronounce, and this time it's a
18:15fried bread from Central and South
18:17America. They sure like snacks. The
18:19fried snack series alone totals over 6
18:21trillion yen. As someone who used to be
18:23on the institutional side, I should
18:25mention that in the world of those
18:27creating these structures, it's called
18:29efficient finance, while for those who
18:31remember the 2001 collapse of the
18:33American energy giant Enron, which
18:35pushed its debts onto other companies,
18:37it's called the Enron structure. However
18:39, for the sake of fairness, there is a
18:41crucial difference from Enron: this time
18:43everything is disclosed, and the amounts
18:45are written in the notes of the
18:46contractual obligations in each
18:48company's disclosure documents. It's not
18:49illegal or hidden; the problem is that
18:51almost no shareholders read those notes
18:53. It seems they’ve placed it there
18:55specifically with the expectation that
18:57it won't be read. The most important
18:59parts are usually written in the fine
19:00print. To be fair once more, if we
19:03calmly aggregate the amount of
19:04guarantees in the fourth category, it's
19:07concentrated in just two companies: Meta
19:09and Alphabet, totaling around 15
19:11trillion yen—a scale that both companies
19:14could cover with just one year of profit
19:16if the worst happened.
19:18Furthermore, the 240 trillion yen in
19:20purchase contracts is just a nominal sum
19:23of payments for several decades, not
19:25money that will be billed all at once
19:27tomorrow. In other words, these
19:29guarantees won't cause immediate death.
19:31The real point is not the size of the
19:33amount, but the fact that companies with
19:35the cleanest books in the world now have
19:37a motive to hide their debts.
19:40And that this practice is still
19:41continuing to grow. So, how did the
19:43financial professionals price this? That
19:46donut company's corporate bond rating is
19:48A +, treated the same as blue-chip
19:50companies in Japan. Yet, as of early
19:52October 2026, it is being sold at 91
19:54against a face value of 100, with the
19:57yield rising to 7.55%. That is not the
19:59yield you expect for an A + bond. By the
20:01time you watch this video, prices may
20:03have recovered, or they may have been
20:05sold off even further. However, it is a
20:07fact that the bond market has at least
20:09once expressed doubt about these prices
20:11, asking who will be the final buyer. It
20:13feels somewhat similar to the Lehman
20:15Shock. It is about shifting the method
20:17of valuation. And there are people
20:19standing even further behind those
20:20questioned guarantors. For the donut
20:22company's guarantee, it was Meta. So,
20:24who are the shareholders of that Meta?
20:26Well, the combined ratio of these five
20:27companies in the S&P 500 is about 20%.
20:29Even in the All Country index, it is
20:31around 10%. In other words, those of us
20:32long-term investors in Japan who are
20:34accumulating the S&P 500 or All Country
20:35index are, through monthly automatic
20:37purchases, standing at the very back of
20:38this structure in the shareholders '
20:40seat. The important point here is not
20:42that a crash is imminent. What I want
20:43you to look at most today is the fact
20:45that the underlying nature of what you
20:46have been accumulating is quietly
20:47changing. The source of strength for Big
20:49Tech until now has been its agility.
20:51Without heavy factories or equipment,
20:52they earned through software and
20:54advertising, and the surplus cash piled
20:56up. That is why they could withdraw even
20:57if they failed. In fact, Meta poured
20:59trillions of yen into the Metaverse and
21:01missed the mark, but that was a failure
21:03where the option to quit still remained
21:05. However, this time, the 240 trillion
21:07yen is a contract that cannot be
21:08canceled. Whether AI earns as expected
21:11or not, they must keep paying for chips
21:13, power, and rent. It means that light
21:15software companies are turning into
21:17capital-intensive industries burdened
21:19with heavy equipment and fixed costs,
21:21like power plants or telecom companies.
21:24Actually, if you recalculate the
21:25financial statements by treating all
21:27off-balance-sheet commitments as debt,
21:30the total for the five companies
21:31deteriorates to the same level as major
21:34U.S. data center firms like Equinix.
21:36Well, for a data center company, those
21:38are perfectly normal numbers. But the
21:40question becomes this. Were you buying
21:42these five companies at their current
21:43prices? Incidentally, regarding Oracle,
21:45which I asked you to remember earlier,
21:47it's already heavily leveraged without
21:49needing any calculations, and its
21:51corporate bonds are starting to see
21:53yields that suggest a speculative grade
21:54—in other words, it's getting a bit
21:56risky. The market is already beginning
21:58to price in these structural changes for
22:00some of these companies. To understand
22:02why heavy fixed costs are a problem, the
22:04easiest way is to think about it this
22:05way. Even with the same 500,000 yen in
22:07take-home pay, the situation looks
22:09completely different when your income
22:10drops by 20%depending on whether your
22:12fixed costs for housing and loans are
22:14100,000 yen or 450,000 yen. The former
22:15will endure it just fine, but the latter
22:17is done for immediately. The same
22:19applies to businesses; a company saddled
22:20with a massive pile of fixed costs will
22:22see the swings in its profits amplified
22:23many times over when sales fluctuate. In
22:25good times, profits jump, but in bad
22:27times, they get wiped out. In short,
22:29this structural shift is moving in a
22:31direction that will gradually increase
22:32the volatility of the S&P 500 index
22:34itself. For long-term investors building
22:36their assets, this means wider price
22:38swings, and for individual stock traders
22:40looking to capture short-to-medium-term
22:42price movements, it changes the premise
22:44of overall market volatility—the very
22:45roughness of price action. Adding just
22:47one more direct path for us in Japan: to
22:50fulfill these commitments, these five
22:52companies will continue to raise massive
22:54amounts of funds from the market.
22:56Alphabet has already issued 4 trillion
22:58yen in bonds. A capital-raising rush of
23:00this scale will push up US market
23:02interest rates, and if US rates move,
23:04the yen-dollar exchange rate and your
23:06yen-denominated valuations won't be
23:08unaffected. However, if I expand on the
23:10interest rate talk, the focus of today
23:12will blur, so just keep in mind that
23:14such a path exists. The main topic is
23:16strictly the structural shift
23:17progressing within your accounts. So,
23:19are your accumulation settings
23:21continuing with this shift already
23:22factored in? Let’s conclude by checking
23:24the answer to that. Well, before
23:26checking the answers, I’ll summarize
23:28today’s conclusion in three lines. These
23:30hidden debts are not an illegal cover-up
23:31. However, their off-balance-sheet
23:34promises are real, and they are
23:35irreversibly changing their business
23:37structure; whether AI revenue will
23:39arrive in time to fulfill these promises
23:41remains unknown to everyone. Having
23:43heard this far, do you still feel like a
23:45spectator, thinking this is just a story
23:47about Meta and Google's financial
23:49departments? That is the biggest
23:50misconception of the day, because the
23:52one sitting in the very back of this
23:54theater—the one who will ultimately
23:55receive both the fruits and the final
23:57bill—is the shareholder. Through about
23:5920%of the S&P 500 and around 10%of "All
24:01Country" funds, you are betting on this
24:04without even realizing it. The ones most
24:06heavily exposed are those of us making
24:08monthly fixed-amount contributions; if
24:10AI earns enough to match that 240
24:12trillion yen promise, the rewards go to
24:14the shareholders. If it doesn't measure
24:16up, the bill for that also goes to the
24:18shareholders. Either way, you are not in
24:20the spectator seats; you are a party to
24:22this. To have heard this from the
24:23beginning as a story concerning your own
24:25bank account, what should you have been
24:26able to see? There were three
24:27perspectives. First: the ability to
24:29distinguish between a promise and a debt
24:31. This is the perspective of separating
24:32the nominal total amount from the timing
24:33of the payment. It is the understanding
24:35that 1 million yen thirty years from now
24:36does not carry the same weight as 1
24:38million yen tomorrow. Second: the
24:39ability to track the destination of a
24:41guarantee. This is the perspective of
24:42tracing a contract to identify who will
24:44ultimately pay the cost. Third: reading
24:46a company's structure through its cost
24:48composition. This is the perspective of
24:50discerning a company's nature not from
24:51sales growth, but from how fixed costs
24:53are piling up. Today's video provided an
24:55explanation using these three
24:56perspectives. How about it? Is it
24:58becoming clearer? Or rather, is it not
25:00the case that for most of you, today was
25:02the first time you learned that these
25:03three elements even exist within
25:05disclosure documents? It's not
25:06necessarily a bad thing, but your
25:08investment plans are continuing to
25:09automatically buy in every month at
25:11prices where it is unclear whether this
25:13structural shift is priced in or not. Do
25:15you currently have the materials to
25:17judge for yourself whether that price is
25:19too high or reasonable? Well, what I
25:21would like you to take away today is
25:22that very question. Lastly, there is one
25:24thing: in the mid-term reports of
25:25disclosure documents—which are neither
25:27illegal nor hidden—every single amount
25:28is written down. But I mentioned that
25:30there are almost no shareholders who
25:31actually read those mid-term reports.
25:33With automatic monthly purchases, for us
25:35who continue to stand on the side of the
25:37shareholders, it means that buying
25:38continues every month without people
25:40knowing what they are buying or where to
25:42look to find out. Have you ever once
25:44counted the actual amount of money
25:46flowing from your own account to these
25:48five companies every month? And this is
25:50what I most want to say: the S&P 500 may
25:52seem diversified across 500 companies,
25:54but the top 10 companies account for 40
25:56%of the index. Today’s five companies
25:58are all among them, meaning 40%of your
26:00account—which you think is diversified—
26:01is determined by the stock prices of a
26:03handful of companies. What if this
26:04lineup enters a period where it takes 13
26:07years to recover, just like for those
26:09who bought at the peak in 2000? If you
26:11are 55 now, it would return...At age 68
26:14. When you reach retirement age and go
26:16to withdraw your funds, is your account
26:18really okay? I honestly think most
26:20people just keep putting the same amount
26:22in every month without checking the
26:23lineup and stock prices for themselves.
26:25I showed you how to interpret this today
26:27, but for next week's news and the week
26:29after, you will have to do the
26:31interpreting yourselves. I only release
26:33one video a week, but news comes out
26:35every day, so the market will not wait
26:37for my videos to be released. Therefore
26:39, I hold regular free study sessions as
26:41a place for you to learn how to
26:42interpret this on your own. It’s the "
26:4430x Roadmap" study session I mentioned
26:46briefly earlier; let’s talk about the
26:47timeline, such as in what order and
26:49where you should look at the financial
26:51economy. A total of about 3,000 people
26:52have participated so far, and while I
26:54would really like to do this offline, I
26:55hold it online so that everyone across
26:57the country can join. To be honest, this
26:59isn't a program where participating just
27:00once will suddenly let you read the
27:02market by tomorrow. It's actually quite
27:04tough. However, depending on whether you
27:05know the order of what to learn first,
27:07what you build up over the same year
27:08will change drastically. And once you've
27:10acquired that perspective, it won't
27:12disappear even if the market changes. We
27:13also provide participants with a PDF
27:15called "The Guide to Rapid Asset
27:17Building." It's organized by asset value
27:19pages, so please use it to check your
27:21current standing. You can join via the
27:23link in the description or this QR code
27:25, so let's continue today's discussion
27:27at the study session. I look forward to
27:29seeing you there. Yes. So, today was
27:31another quite interesting topic, wasn't
27:33it?
27:35It's about how even if the main company
27:37isn't in debt, if its subsidiaries or
27:39companies where they only hold a 20%
27:41stake are in debt, and they've signed
27:43something like a joint guarantee, isn't
27:45that essentially the main company's debt
27:47?
27:48So, the theme this time was that the
27:50shape of tech companies has changed
27:52completely from what it used to be. Yes
27:55.
27:57Now, for a bit of after-talk, lately,
27:59thankfully, we've had an increase in
28:02trolls and fake accounts, so please be
28:04careful, everyone.
28:08I was actually pretty shocked to find
28:10this video uploaded just as it is on
28:12YouTube by someone like, what was it,
28:15some "Uncle" or something. Yes.
28:18There was a channel that took my video,
28:20uploaded it exactly as is, and just let
28:23it run—I thought that was incredible.
28:26And they have accounts on X and
28:28Instagram, too.
28:30On Instagram, they swiped my handle,
28:32changed it just a little bit, and posted
28:35the same photos.
28:37I suppose they're trying to lure people
28:38into something with that.
28:43We basically never send DMs to you, or
28:45try to lead you to other platforms, or
28:48contact anyone individually, so if you
28:50receive a DM that seems to be from us,
28:52please assume it’s almost certainly fake
28:55and report it.
28:59Recently, those investment-related
29:01channels on YouTube have been getting
29:03banned, or rather, it’s become quite
29:04difficult for them.
29:06I think people are losing track of what
29:08they should be doing, which might be why
29:10they’re resorting to ripping others off
29:12.
29:13And our thumbnails, for instance, are
29:15being copied quite a bit.
29:17I was clearly the first one to start
29:19using the "Okimasu"(I'll put it here)
29:21phrase, and while I see it being used
29:23everywhere now, when I ask people in the
29:25YouTube community, they just say, "Well
29:28, it’s a give-and-take, that’s just how
29:30it is for everyone."
29:32Yeah. Still, I just can’t bring myself
29:34to approve of people re-uploading my
29:36videos exactly as they are. So, I just
29:39find myself thinking, wow, people come
29:41up with all sorts of things.
29:46Also, about the hate comments—it happens
29:48occasionally, but since you guys in the
29:50"Ozachiru" community are generally very
29:53well-behaved, there aren't really any,
29:55and on the rare occasions they appear,
29:57there are always Ozachiru members who
29:59protect me by replying to them, so
30:01that’s really impressive.
30:09I mean, for people who post hate
30:10comments on social media, they go out of
30:12their way to watch others' videos and
30:14spend their precious time writing
30:16negative things and naming names, which
30:18makes me wonder if they just have way
30:20too much free time.
30:24Yes. So, anyway, I really don't have the
30:27time to be doing things like that, nor
30:29do I have the time to worry about it. I
30:31just want to focus all my time on my own
30:33growth, so I honestly don't care about
30:36it at all. Yes. So, if you come across
30:38any strange DMs or suspicious accounts,
30:41please feel free to report them.
30:43I appreciate your continued support.
30:45Thank you very much.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of 世界中の投資家が大量に売り始めたきっかけ…AI・半導体相場で今、何が起きているのか？｜私たち個人投資家は何をするべきなのか【元ゴールドマンサックスが徹底解説】 by おーちゃん【元外銀マン】, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 6,233 words across 963 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to choose a caption track available on the video.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, caption language selection, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.