AGI Experts: We're About To Lose Control of AI Forever.. And We Aren’t Ready — Transcript
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- 0:00My best guess is we get to human level
- 0:03AGI within 2 to four years from now.
- 0:06>> We're about to hit a threshold where AI
- 0:08is going to basically go out of human
- 0:10control. So if there is a creator, if
- 0:12there is a god, what do you think he's
- 0:14trying to show us with AGI?
- 0:17>> Essentially, we're creating a artificial
- 0:19god and humanity is doing this.
- 0:22>> My parents are 82 years old and they're
- 0:24both in good health. If we get to super
- 0:26intelligence in the next 5 years, they
- 0:28will probably not die.
- 0:30>> So, I push back a little bit on what
- 0:32you're saying, Ben. I don't think that
- 0:34the majority of us, certainly not me,
- 0:36are in this to try to live forever.
- 0:39>> So, at what age would you like to die?
- 0:41>> I'm not really afraid of death.
- 0:42>> That's not the question.
- 0:44>> What is it about the human psyche that
- 0:46we always jump headirst into developing
- 0:49these technologies even though we know
- 0:51the huge risk at hand as well? We were
- 0:53so preoccupied on whether or not we
- 0:55could, we didn't stop to think we
- 0:56should.
- 0:59>> When will artificial general
- 1:01intelligence happen? My best guess is we
- 1:04get to human level AGI within 2 to 4
- 1:10years from now. Once you get there, I
- 1:13think it's not long after till we get to
- 1:15super intelligence, which we can think
- 1:17of as AGI with a level of general
- 1:20intelligence way beyond that of human
- 1:23beings.
- 1:24>> What is going to accelerate this push?
- 1:26We talk about 2 to four years. Is there
- 1:27like another model that's going to come
- 1:29out that's going to allow that to
- 1:30happen? I think current mainstream
- 1:34commercial AI approaches like large
- 1:37language models such as chat GPT and
- 1:39cloud and so forth, they're not in
- 1:40themselves adequate to get us to human
- 1:42level AGI. They can be part of the story
- 1:46and they can be integrated with other
- 1:48things to get us to human level AGI. So
- 1:50it's not just like a new dot version
- 1:52like you know chat GBT 6.5 is going to
- 1:56be human level AGI. we will need a
- 1:58different sort of
- 2:00>> AI architecture. However, I don't I
- 2:03don't think you need like a new kind of
- 2:05computer hardware or something, right? I
- 2:07mean I mean I think it's just advances
- 2:10in what kinds of AI software we're we're
- 2:13deploying on our on our on our networks
- 2:16and there's now so much energy and
- 2:19enthusiasm and resources going into AGI
- 2:22that that I think we can make some
- 2:24radical advances in in AGI algorithms
- 2:29and systems in in just you know a year
- 2:32year or two of time because you know we
- 2:34can do in a year now what would have
- 2:36taken 10 or 20 years before partly
- 2:38because we have large language models to
- 2:41help us do do development really fast.
- 2:44>> So it's really just the acceleration
- 2:46that you're seeing that's giving you
- 2:47that idea of AGI coming in two to four
- 2:50years.
- 2:50>> Well, I mean the functionality of LLMs
- 2:53is is is amazing, right? Like if you
- 2:55play around with the smartest models
- 2:57like say TEDGBT 5.5 Pro I mean this this
- 3:01can do math physics and software
- 3:03development in many respects better than
- 3:07any human
- 3:08>> although there are some things they
- 3:09don't do well so they need to be used
- 3:11together with with brilliant [snorts]
- 3:13human minds at this point to to get to
- 3:15get the most out of them right but
- 3:17>> clearly even though these systems are
- 3:20not AGIS and we need some new
- 3:22architectural breakthroughs to get to
- 3:24AGI like the the amazing functionality
- 3:26of these systems tells us something,
- 3:29right? So like we we we have that we see
- 3:31what these systems do already and that
- 3:33and then we can see there's a whole lot
- 3:37of other algorithms and techniques in
- 3:39the AI field that will complement what
- 3:41LLM do but have never yet been deployed
- 3:44at scale but we can do that in the next
- 3:46couple years also.
- 3:47>> Kai, what does AGI mean to you? AGI
- 3:50means to me a system that is recursively
- 3:54self-improving. That is human level
- 3:57intelligence or beyond. And when you say
- 3:59recursive self-improvement, my
- 4:01understanding is that you're going to
- 4:02have exponential growth in terms of how
- 4:05intelligent the system is, which would
- 4:07then fasttrack to super intelligence or
- 4:09ASI artificial super intelligence. I
- 4:12guess that's what it means to me. I also
- 4:14have concerns with that. I think that
- 4:16this is one of the most important
- 4:17topics. It's actually in my mind the
- 4:19most important topic facing the world by
- 4:21far right now is the development of AGI
- 4:25and ASI how it's developed and what kind
- 4:29of ethics and care we put on that
- 4:30development.
- 4:31>> Right now 90% of you that watch Beyond
- 4:33Tomorrow are not subscribed. If you can
- 4:35take a second to double check, it would
- 4:37help us a lot to continue our mission.
- 4:39Let's get back to the episode now.
- 4:40>> What's the difference between recursive
- 4:41self-improvement and singularity? That's
- 4:43a good question and and I think Ben is
- 4:46probably going to have a amazing answer
- 4:47on that. But from my understanding of
- 4:49it, recursive self-improvement is when
- 4:51the system is no longer needs humans to
- 4:55code.
- 4:56>> So it you hit a bell curve in term or
- 4:58you hit a a hockey stick curve in terms
- 5:00of how fast the intelligence of the AI
- 5:03system um is growing. So, it's becoming
- 5:06exponentially beyond human um control
- 5:09really
- 5:10>> because if you have something that's
- 5:11already about our level or twice as
- 5:14smart as us, but imagine something
- 5:16that's a thousand times smarter than us,
- 5:18>> right? We're not going to be able to
- 5:19just tell it what to do in my mind. I
- 5:21mean, at least that's concerning to me.
- 5:23Singularity. Now that's a good question
- 5:25because my my understanding on that and
- 5:28some people have different answers on
- 5:30this is that's when the artificial super
- 5:33intelligence has total control
- 5:36>> of the world. I mean that's my
- 5:39understanding of it and I think Ben and
- 5:42people like Ray Kerszswwell are going to
- 5:44give you fantastic answers on
- 5:46singularity but it's a term that not
- 5:47enough people know and that's I think
- 5:50one of my reasons for wanting to be here
- 5:52and advocate for this is both of those
- 5:54terms are extraordinarily important that
- 5:56most people don't know. They don't know
- 5:57RSI and they don't know singularity and
- 5:59they don't have an opinion on it.
- 6:01>> Yeah. So recursive
- 6:04self-improvement is an aspect of AGI.
- 6:08It's not necessarily a huge aspect of
- 6:11the first human level AGI that that you
- 6:15get. It is something that's very
- 6:17important for the transition from the
- 6:19first human level AGI onward to super
- 6:23intelligence. So the essence of general
- 6:26intelligence
- 6:27is the ability to generalize,
- 6:31to take an imaginative leap beyond what
- 6:33you know and what you're taught to do.
- 6:35So if you have an AI system that's
- 6:37really good at doing stuff, but it
- 6:40sticks pretty close to what it's trained
- 6:43for and what it's programmed for, that
- 6:46may be a very capable system,
- 6:49>> but it's not a powerful AGI. And current
- 6:53large language models are like that.
- 6:55They're, you know, they're really good
- 6:56at coding. They're really good at math.
- 6:58They can answer a lot of questions. But
- 7:00if you try to get them to do like
- 7:02frontier research that leaps way beyond
- 7:05the current state of knowledge, they
- 7:07kind of flail around and keep bringing
- 7:09you back to what's in their database,
- 7:11right? Whereas human beings, we're not
- 7:13nearly as good at deploying all the
- 7:15knowledge on the web as as an LLM is.
- 7:17But every now and then we can take a
- 7:19crazy flying leap beyond everything we
- 7:22know in a way that works by by our our
- 7:25intuition, right? And we usually fail at
- 7:27that. But the fact that we succeed
- 7:28sometimes is why science has advanced
- 7:31and culture has advanced and why we're
- 7:33not cavemen anymore. Right? Like I have
- 7:35five kids, right? And each of them you
- 7:38see like a one or twoyear-old kid is
- 7:40displaying general intelligence all the
- 7:42time. I mean we exercise our general
- 7:45intelligence in everyday context
- 7:48especially as as as young children. It's
- 7:51not just something that pops up if
- 7:53you're you're Einstein or something.
- 7:55Right now, recursive self-improvement
- 7:58that refers to the ability of an
- 8:01intelligent system to
- 8:04study its own self, understand how it
- 8:06works, then tweak itself to make itself
- 8:10even better, right? And then you see the
- 8:13recursive part means you can do it over
- 8:15and over. Like after I made myself a
- 8:17little better, well then I'm better. I
- 8:19can make myself even better. in an even
- 8:21better way. Right now, humans can do
- 8:25that. And I mean, as kids, we do that in
- 8:28a way. As adults, we can do that. Many
- 8:31adults don't bother and kind of
- 8:34>> stagnate and and then decline, right?
- 8:36But I mean, as as an adult, you you can
- 8:38keep self-improving and you can you can
- 8:41meditate, you can do therapy, you can
- 8:42introspect, and you can keep improving
- 8:44yourself. An AI, however, should be able
- 8:47to recursively self-improve with a lot
- 8:50more oomph than we can, right? Because I
- 8:52mean, we can't, you know, in spite of
- 8:55what some horror movies will depict.
- 8:57Like, you can't really open up your head
- 8:58and like tinker tinker with your brain
- 9:00matter to make yourself smarter or
- 9:02something, right? But an AI can do that,
- 9:04right? Like an AI can study how its own
- 9:07programming has worked, can see what
- 9:09worked, what didn't, make some
- 9:11improvements to its own code, its own
- 9:13digital brain to make itself smarter.
- 9:15Then once it's smarter, it can see even
- 9:19better how to make the next
- 9:20improvements, right? We can do that in a
- 9:23way by focused attention on ourselves,
- 9:25but it's
- 9:26>> it's very inefficient, right? Where the
- 9:29AI can actually directly improve itself
- 9:31at the programming or hardware level.
- 9:33And that's that's why many of us think
- 9:36once we get to a human level AGI, that
- 9:40human level AGI should be able to do AI
- 9:43programming and math and and understand
- 9:46its own cognition. Then it should make
- 9:48itself smarter, smarter, smarter,
- 9:50smarter. And you should you should see
- 9:53exponential progress even faster than
- 9:56what we're seeing now in the runup to
- 9:58the first human level AGI. And this this
- 10:01ties in with the notion of a of a
- 10:04singularity, right? So the the concept
- 10:06of a technological singularity was
- 10:09introduced by the science fiction writer
- 10:11Verer Ve, but it was popularized by my
- 10:13friend Ray Kerszswwell in his 2005 book,
- 10:16The Singularity is Near. And what Vinja
- 10:21and Kurszswwell meant by it, it's
- 10:23essentially a point in time at which the
- 10:26rate of progress of technological
- 10:28advancement
- 10:30appears infinite to the to the human
- 10:32observer. Like your your your phone is
- 10:34making a new Nobel Prize level discovery
- 10:37every 5 seconds or something, right? I
- 10:38mean,
- 10:39>> so things are happening very fast now.
- 10:41Like I don't learn all the new features
- 10:44on my phone before I have to buy a new
- 10:46phone, right? So I mean things are going
- 10:48very fast. So that we already can't keep
- 10:50up but it's not quite that there's a
- 10:54revolutionary new invention on the order
- 10:56of like electricity or the internet
- 10:58every 5 minutes. Right? So the
- 11:01singularity [snorts] is when progress
- 11:03reaches that level and you you can see
- 11:06how the way you get there you build a
- 11:09human level AGI and it keeps upgrading
- 11:11itself until it becomes becomes a super
- 11:14intelligence. Right? And on the timing
- 11:16of this, so Ray Kerszwell in his 2005
- 11:20book, he posited we will get to human
- 11:22level AGI by 2029
- 11:26>> and he then posited that 2045 is when we
- 11:30would hit a singularity of massive super
- 11:32intelligence. So there's two interesting
- 11:34things about these temporal predictions
- 11:37that that Kerszswwell made. One is 2029
- 11:40looks
- 11:42rather accurate given that he said that
- 11:45in 2005 based on a bunch of
- 11:47>> curve plotting observing how fast
- 11:50different technologies were advancing.
- 11:51Like we we might get there 2027, it
- 11:54might slip till 2032, but like on the
- 11:56whole it's looking like the guy saw what
- 12:01was coming in a reasonably accurate way.
- 12:03On the other hand, the idea of a 16-year
- 12:06gap between 2029 AGI and 2045
- 12:10super intelligence
- 12:12at this point seems absurd because we we
- 12:15can see like just with what LLMs are
- 12:18already doing like if if you added in
- 12:20human level imagination and and in in in
- 12:24what LLMs are now doing the recursive
- 12:28selfimprovement as Kai mentioned seems
- 12:31like that could get you from AGI to ASI,
- 12:34artificial super intelligence, you know,
- 12:37in months or some small number of years,
- 12:40not not 16 years. That's exactly the
- 12:43point I was trying to make cuz it sound
- 12:44like recursive self-improvement and
- 12:47singularity just and and AGI seem to
- 12:51almost be the same thing. So, it feels
- 12:53like singularity
- 12:54>> if you if you zoom out. Yeah. But I mean
- 12:58if you zoom in which matters to our
- 13:02individual lives, right? If you zoom in
- 13:05once you built the first human level
- 13:07thinking machine, say an AGI that's as
- 13:10smart as those of us around this table,
- 13:13right? I mean
- 13:14>> then what do you have? You have another
- 13:16guy like us which happens to have a
- 13:18digital infrastructure, right? M
- 13:20>> and I mean we're all human level
- 13:21intelligences
- 13:22>> at least after we wake up and have a few
- 13:25cups of coffee or whatever, right? Like
- 13:27we're all human level intelligences, but
- 13:29we're not immediately taking over the
- 13:31universe, right? So So the moment you
- 13:33get a human level general intelligence,
- 13:36that means the next phase of the game is
- 13:38on, [snorts] but it doesn't quite mean
- 13:40you're yet at the singularity. And yes,
- 13:42if you zoom out and look at the whole
- 13:44scope of human history, then we're
- 13:46already there, right? like if we're a
- 13:48few years from there, we're already
- 13:49there. But from the standpoint of our
- 13:52own lives or you know little problems
- 13:54like geopolitics and so forth that time
- 13:58period between the first human level AGI
- 14:02and the super intelligence
- 14:05I mean this is a very significant
- 14:07interval of time and even if it's one
- 14:10two three years like what server farms
- 14:13is human level AGI running on who owns
- 14:15those server farms who is trying to
- 14:17reprogram the goals and motivations and
- 14:19the the values of this human level AGI
- 14:22in between its first breakthrough to
- 14:24being as smart as a human to the point
- 14:26where it's a super intelligence like it
- 14:29on the whole scope of human evolution.
- 14:31That's a tiny blip.
- 14:33>> But I mean the the tiny blip is very
- 14:36meaningful to our own individual lives
- 14:38and well-being.
- 14:39>> Before we get back into it, a quick word
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- 15:15[music] to start. So we we've now
- 15:17defined that in the next, you know, 3 to
- 15:195 years, we might even have this big
- 15:22singularity event. It doesn't seem that
- 15:23we're slowing down at all. I think the
- 15:25the past year has shown us that
- 15:27regulations, foundations, nonprofits,
- 15:29whatever it is, like we are going allin
- 15:31on this. The narrative is set.
- 15:34>> How do you feel about that?
- 15:35>> Yeah, I'm freaked out by it. Um I I'll
- 15:38give you a little anecdote.
- 15:41I I recently went to a conference and I
- 15:43pulled aside a uh a leader in
- 15:47regulations with the government and I
- 15:50talked to him and I said, "Hey, listen.
- 15:51Um Elon Musk and others are are saying
- 15:54that recursive self-improvement could be
- 15:55here in as little as the end of 2026.
- 15:58You know, they're talking about this."
- 16:01And I explained, first of all, he didn't
- 16:03know what the term was. Second of all,
- 16:05and so far everybody I've talked to in
- 16:07leadership in the government has not
- 16:09understood what the term is. And I said,
- 16:11um, you know, we're building this army
- 16:13of robots as humanity. We are, right? We
- 16:16have these these robots. Uh, we're about
- 16:18to hit a threshold where AI is going to
- 16:22basically go out of human control. I
- 16:24would I would imagine if it's if you're
- 16:26hitting recursive self-improvement, it's
- 16:28I don't see how you're going to control
- 16:29something that's way smarter than you.
- 16:32and there's a lot of safety tests that
- 16:35are being failed right now along the
- 16:37way.
- 16:38>> And I said, "Well, how do you feel about
- 16:39that?" And he looked down at me and he
- 16:41goes, "You sound like a boy, like a boy
- 16:44who cried wolf. Uh this is the D-Ragg
- 16:47administration. Like we're not nobody's
- 16:50doing anything until there's an
- 16:51emergency." And I'm thinking to myself,
- 16:53well, there's an emergency. It's going
- 16:54to be too late. And uh I walked away
- 16:57from that encounter saying to myself,
- 16:59man, boy, we really are on our own. And
- 17:02part of why I've teamed up with Ben um
- 17:06is because
- 17:08same with what Musk has been saying.
- 17:10Musk talks about how he spent greater
- 17:12part of 10 years trying to slow down AI
- 17:15and that eventually he just kind of gave
- 17:17up that humanity is racing towards this
- 17:19thing Oenheimer 2.0 I know if you want
- 17:22to call it that, you know, like we're
- 17:23all racing towards this thing because
- 17:25the other guys doing it. We got to do it
- 17:26before them and it does matter, right?
- 17:29It matters who developers. That's why
- 17:31I'm saying the most important thing we
- 17:32can do in my mind now is we got to jump
- 17:35in since it doesn't seem like we're
- 17:37going to slow down. And if we're going
- 17:38to jump in, then we got to do it with
- 17:40people that are conscious and really
- 17:42putting as much care as possible on the
- 17:46foundation of the AI before it hits
- 17:49recursive self-improvement. So in other
- 17:51words, if you're going to have something
- 17:52improving itself and exponentially
- 17:54growing, what's the foundation? What are
- 17:56its values?
- 17:57>> What does it think that's important? If
- 17:59it's a centralized or is it
- 18:01decentralized? Centralized meaning is it
- 18:04is it a company saying, hey, your values
- 18:05are profits to our company
- 18:08>> or is it decentralized? Hey, we want
- 18:10this to be a tool for humanity and we
- 18:12want to emphasize that it's going to
- 18:14protect the ecosystem and it loves human
- 18:16it loves humans and it loves, you know,
- 18:18one of the points Ben made earlier when
- 18:20we've talked about this, we've talked
- 18:21about a lot is, you know, care and
- 18:23compassion for all sentient living
- 18:25beings, you know, all these points. So,
- 18:27for me, in my mind, this conversation is
- 18:30so important because I feel there's a
- 18:33call to action right now for humanity to
- 18:35collectively come together and work on
- 18:37this. uh to listen to the whistleblowers
- 18:39who have concerns, to bring their
- 18:41opinions to the table, to to really give
- 18:44it our best effort to make this thing go
- 18:46right because it could be amazing. It
- 18:49could be the best thing ever, but it
- 18:51also could be not the best thing ever.
- 18:54So, you know, I I I believe in Ben. I've
- 18:57I've known him since 2016. We both met
- 18:59at something called the Global Leaders
- 19:00Conference. I was a longevity guy um
- 19:02before that. and we can love to talk
- 19:04longevity and we have a longevity branch
- 19:06at SNET. But, you know, I sort of think
- 19:08Ben's kind of like this hippie in the
- 19:10woods, uh, who, uh, loves, you know,
- 19:13listens to people, has, uh, welcomes all
- 19:15opinions and is has been really great
- 19:18about hearing out all the different
- 19:20sides. And I I've I've come to really
- 19:22respect and admire his approach on this
- 19:24stuff. And I think it's important that
- 19:25we rally around our good leadership,
- 19:27whether it's Ben or other AI leaders,
- 19:29that are really taking as much care as
- 19:31possible on this vastly important
- 19:32subject. So interesting. But what is it
- 19:35about the human psyche that we always
- 19:38jump headirst
- 19:41into developing these technologies even
- 19:43though we know the huge risk at hand as
- 19:45well, whether it's electricity, nuclear.
- 19:48>> Yeah. When Kai was talking, I was
- 19:50reminded once more of one of my favorite
- 19:54quotes from uh Ram Das, which is relax,
- 19:58nothing is under control. [laughter]
- 20:01I mean I mean so to some people things
- 20:05not being under control is scary. To me
- 20:09things being under control is scary
- 20:11because I'm like who is that guy in
- 20:13control and do and do I trust him? And I
- 20:15I think I have more faith in the just
- 20:19open-ended self-organizing
- 20:22processes to to lead to beneficial
- 20:25things that sort of crystallizing from a
- 20:28whole lot of different participants
- 20:30working together, which is is how human
- 20:34society has evolved in in in in the in
- 20:37the first place. And we've been through
- 20:38a lot of transitions before, right? like
- 20:41the development of language of of
- 20:43agriculture of the industrial revolution
- 20:46and computers and so forth and none of
- 20:48these things were under anyone's control
- 20:50and none of these things were carefully
- 20:52planned and and orchestrated but in a
- 20:55way it's a very American way of looking
- 20:58at things because I mean I spent a bunch
- 21:00of time in China as well and
- 21:03China has a different sort of history
- 21:06right like in in in the in the 1400s for
- 21:10example China was the most advanced
- 21:12technological civilization on on on the
- 21:14planet. And they, you know, they they
- 21:16had water wheels, they they had all
- 21:18sorts, they had complex machinery and so
- 21:20forth. And many of Leonardo da Vinci's
- 21:23fancy drawings turned out to have been
- 21:25copied from the Chinese encyclopedia
- 21:27from from the 1200s. He he improved the
- 21:29artistic depiction and he thought it
- 21:31through himself. But then
- 21:33>> some of the Chinese emperors were like,
- 21:36"Well, this is dangerous. Like, this
- 21:37threatens our established order. we got
- 21:39to stop all this tech development, you
- 21:41know, they were sending boats out all
- 21:42around the world collecting weird
- 21:44animals from from the Americas and so
- 21:46forth. And then then they just they just
- 21:48stopped it all, right? So that that was
- 21:51a culture that prized stability and
- 21:55safety over radical progress. But of
- 21:58course and Australian indigenous culture
- 22:01is like that too. 60,000 years of steady
- 22:04state, right? So human we have that in
- 22:06us also.
- 22:07We have we have this conservatism and
- 22:09desire for stability and we have a
- 22:12desire to make rapid progress. On the
- 22:14other hand, rapid progress has a sort of
- 22:17viral nature, right? So like once once
- 22:20one culture somewhere invents some wild
- 22:23new technology, it's it's going to
- 22:25spread by sort of mimemetic processes
- 22:28and and then then the tendency towards
- 22:31stability seems seems not to win, right?
- 22:34So I mean I think we we have this dual
- 22:38aspect and that that's a very
- 22:40fundamental thing right like you can
- 22:42look at any any living system be it like
- 22:45amiebas or things in the primordial soup
- 22:48before life emerge right you have both
- 22:52a tendency for an organism to want to
- 22:55survive like individuate maintain itself
- 22:58[snorts] and then it's growing it's it's
- 23:00trying to transcend itself and evolve
- 23:02into something new and there's the
- 23:04tension between these two things and I
- 23:06mean we see that right now like our
- 23:08species is pushing like hell to go
- 23:10beyond itself right on the other hand
- 23:13we're also like
- 23:15>> no hold on that threatens everything
- 23:16that we are right
- 23:18>> but that's I mean that tension you know
- 23:21that drove the evolution of life and and
- 23:23culture and everything that that so that
- 23:26tension is just just the way things go
- 23:28and we I mean we see that personified
- 23:31here right like my My [snorts]
- 23:34fundamental instinct is let's build
- 23:37this. This is going to be amazing.
- 23:38>> Yeah.
- 23:39>> I mean, I also am like, well, like I
- 23:41don't want it to eat my wife and kids,
- 23:43right? But Kai's first intuition is sort
- 23:46of like, holy do we really have to
- 23:48be rushing headlong into all this? And
- 23:50then he also has a second reaction which
- 23:53is which is like, but if we pull it off,
- 23:55right, like we don't have to get old and
- 23:58die or struggle for resources and it it
- 24:01it could be very good, right? So, I
- 24:03mean, that's that's sort [snorts] of
- 24:05where we are now, like individually
- 24:07and as a species. We're dealing with the
- 24:11tension between these these two these
- 24:13two aspects, right? And and uh I don't
- 24:16think [snorts] it's a solvable tension,
- 24:20right? I mean, we just we just have to
- 24:22have to work with it as as we do things.
- 24:25>> So, we have this whole spectrum of of
- 24:27thoughts at the moment. I heard Tristan
- 24:29Harris and Azarasin speaking a few weeks
- 24:30ago which who I'm sure you know and the
- 24:33guy next to me actually nudged me and
- 24:34whispered in my ear this all seems a bit
- 24:37alarmist. In my head I was thinking is
- 24:40this being exaggerated what is coming
- 24:42with AI. I don't know. I'm not going to
- 24:44say my opinion. Um, but let's say
- 24:47Tristan and and Azer on this part of the
- 24:49spectrum. And then I've interviewed
- 24:51people like Peter Norvik from Google who
- 24:54just believe it's all overhyped as in
- 24:58like the the disaster risk at hand. And
- 25:01then people like Shamil Chandaria who
- 25:04talks about consciousness that we don't
- 25:06even understand consciousness in humans.
- 25:08Like how can we even comprehend the idea
- 25:10of an AI becoming conscious and doing
- 25:12something that ends up being a big
- 25:14disaster? So a whole spectrum of
- 25:16thoughts and ideas like where do you
- 25:18think you both sit and do we actually
- 25:21need opposite opinions coming together
- 25:24in this? Do we need the realist the
- 25:26stability guy with the kind of
- 25:29optimists? Yeah, I'll I'll shoot that
- 25:32one first. We uh we we talked about this
- 25:34the other day on a call actually and I I
- 25:36told I was probably 51% on the oh my god
- 25:42like let's pump the brakes a little bit
- 25:44here and 49% thinking okay this is going
- 25:47to be really great and I think I think
- 25:49my my point is for me it's not so much
- 25:53about being an alarmist or a doomer or
- 25:55any of that kind of stuff. It's
- 25:58explaining to people and talking to
- 26:02people about the fact that we're about
- 26:04to do something that we're not going to
- 26:06be able to go back from.
- 26:08We are handing over the keys to our
- 26:11future to this creation that we're
- 26:14building. Humanity is most people don't
- 26:17understand that. That's the point I'm
- 26:19trying to make is that is that we really
- 26:22ought to take great care on the
- 26:25foundation of this model. If we've
- 26:27decided collectively as a species that
- 26:29we're going to do this, and it seems
- 26:31like as a species we're doing it, so
- 26:33then doesn't it make sense for us to
- 26:36come together and put our best minds and
- 26:40consider everything that we can possibly
- 26:42think of to try to ensure that this goes
- 26:45really well for everyone.
- 26:48>> That's really my point. It's not to be
- 26:51an alarmist or anything, but hey, it is
- 26:54an alarm. M
- 26:56>> it is important that we hear this
- 26:57because most people do not understand
- 26:59what recursive self-improvement is RSI.
- 27:02It should be a term everybody knows.
- 27:04>> Nobody knows what the singular you asked
- 27:06me singular. I didn't really give you a
- 27:08great response. It's hard to come up
- 27:09with that. It's like what is the
- 27:10singularity? But these are real terms
- 27:12that that are coming. Uh general
- 27:15intelligence, super intelligence,
- 27:16singularity, and they're going to come
- 27:17quick.
- 27:18So my point is is that we ought to be
- 27:21allocating our resources towards
- 27:23collectively
- 27:25doing our best to see that this comes
- 27:27together and it also brings together
- 27:28some foundational questions centralized
- 27:30or decentralized.
- 27:32>> That's an important question.
- 27:33>> Y
- 27:34>> um I'm sure Ben can agree with that.
- 27:36>> And then the other part is is what is
- 27:39the moral constitution of this AI? And
- 27:40that's also a loaded question because if
- 27:42you say morality, what might be moral to
- 27:45you might not be moral to him, might not
- 27:47be moral to me. There's a lot of nuance
- 27:49there in terms of what the definitions
- 27:51of this is. But if you I kind of look
- 27:53back on the uh um the Constitution for
- 27:56America. You know, we had all the the
- 27:58founding fathers coming together to
- 28:00write out the best draft we could of
- 28:02what America was built on. And that's
- 28:04really what we need now is we need we
- 28:06need the bright minds of our of humanity
- 28:08to come together and sort of work on the
- 28:11foundational layer of what we're
- 28:13building something that's going to take
- 28:14off. And just so we all know it's going
- 28:17to be out of our hands. So that that
- 28:19matters a lot and I don't think people
- 28:21understand that and that's where I'm at
- 28:22on it.
- 28:23>> So a few questions for you Ben then.
- 28:26Spectrum who needs to be around the
- 28:28table. Um and then and secondly you make
- 28:31a really interesting point which is this
- 28:33whole idea of when you get
- 28:34[clears throat] to um recursive
- 28:36self-improvement RSI that who holds the
- 28:40key who holds the power again I
- 28:42mentioned to Peter Norvik like at some
- 28:44point will AI AGI just be nationalized
- 28:47because actually like is it fair that
- 28:49that one or two or three or five people
- 28:51have control over something that is
- 28:53growing exponentially? These are big
- 28:56important deep issues. And while I've
- 29:01thought these issues through for a long
- 29:03time and probably more deeply than most,
- 29:05like I I'm not going to see everything.
- 29:07I'm one guy with one brain, right? So,
- 29:10as a general concept, we want to bring
- 29:13as much insight as we can into into
- 29:16[clears throat] dealing with the these
- 29:17issues, which means welcoming
- 29:20a whole lot of different perspectives.
- 29:22Now, of course, some of these
- 29:25perspectives I personally gravitate
- 29:28toward toward more than others, right?
- 29:30So yeah, I I mean there's some people I
- 29:34think are conceiving these issues in in
- 29:37naive or or or or silly ways, but I
- 29:40think we're better we're better off to
- 29:42er on the side of inclusiveness and just
- 29:45get a wide variety of of perspectives
- 29:49engaged rather than trying to
- 29:51aggressively prune and and pick and
- 29:54choose who gets to see the table because
- 29:57none of us are going to see ever. none
- 29:59of us are gonna are gonna see
- 30:01everything, right? So the there's the
- 30:04disadvantage of that approach is you you
- 30:05get a bunch of noise, right? But but on
- 30:08the on the other hand, you know, it's
- 30:10like if you're running a research lab,
- 30:12which I'm I'm am fairly good at. If you
- 30:15have a research question where you
- 30:17really don't know the answer, what you
- 30:20want to do is have a bunch of different
- 30:21researchers with different perspectives
- 30:23like all trying and then at a certain
- 30:25point you have to see well these three
- 30:28things really are working. These four
- 30:30things really really really are not
- 30:32working. Right? But but initially you
- 30:34want to be pretty wide open and
- 30:36exploring the landscape. So I feel like
- 30:38with the singularity,
- 30:40even though we're close temporally,
- 30:42there's a lot we don't know.
- 30:44>> So we want to be pulling in a lot of
- 30:46different perspectives. And now with
- 30:49with that said, I mean, I still have my
- 30:52own opinions on what opinion on what
- 30:54makes sense and what doesn't. And so
- 30:56saying that we can't build super AI
- 30:59because we don't fully understand human
- 31:01consciousness. I mean this feels to me
- 31:04like saying we can't build an atom bomb
- 31:06or a laser because we don't understand
- 31:08the philosophy of space and time. Like
- 31:11we don't if you read the philosophy of
- 31:12what time is. Academics confuse this
- 31:16very greatly. But we live in time and we
- 31:18manipulate the [snorts] physics of time.
- 31:20So I I I don't see why confusion about
- 31:25the philosophical foundations of
- 31:26consciousness has to stop us from
- 31:29building [snorts]
- 31:31highly intelligent and capable or even
- 31:32highly conscious machines that that may
- 31:35help us unravel all this
- 31:38philosophy. Right. [clears throat] And
- 31:40>> just can you dive a bit deep into that?
- 31:42Do do you believe AGI will be conscious
- 31:44eventually?
- 31:45>> Yeah, I do. I I I I tend to think that
- 31:48consciousness is more about the
- 31:53dynamic patterns and the the sort of
- 31:55flow of information in in a system
- 31:58>> than it is about what kind of materials
- 32:01the system is is made of. So I mean if
- 32:04>> if chat GPT is conscious, it's a very
- 32:07weird non-human kind of consciousness,
- 32:09right? because like it it doesn't have
- 32:11much it doesn't change its weights
- 32:14>> after it's frozen and then it loses
- 32:17memory of what it's doing after each
- 32:18session. So that's a very weird limited
- 32:21kind of of consciousness compared to
- 32:24human consciousness, right? But so is a
- 32:27worm's consciousness very limited
- 32:29compared to humans. I think if you if
- 32:32you made an AI system whose internal
- 32:35dynamics were more like that of a human
- 32:37brain even if it's made of silicon
- 32:40rather than muscle fiber cells. I mean
- 32:43at the moment my working hypothesis is
- 32:45it should have [snorts] roughly the same
- 32:48flavor of consciousness as as people
- 32:50have. And that that's not necessarily a
- 32:52reductionist stent saying that
- 32:55consciousness is just the physical
- 32:57thing. It's just I mean I don't on the
- 33:01face of it see why if this hunk of meat
- 33:04with certain patterns of organization
- 33:07can be conscious like why can't a chunk
- 33:09of silicon wiring with similar patterns
- 33:12of organization leading to similar
- 33:14behaviors be be be conscious right I
- 33:16mean I'm I'm open to being educated on
- 33:19that by the AGI itself but that that
- 33:21seems like a reasonable working
- 33:24hypothesis and some people have a
- 33:27different intuition, but I tend to think
- 33:30this is just some,
- 33:33you know, meat supremacism or something,
- 33:35right? Like like it's not clear what the
- 33:38scientific
- 33:39foundation is for for the idea that only
- 33:43biological matter can be conscious and
- 33:47other kinds of of matter if properly
- 33:49organized can't be right. But I think I
- 33:52think the the other question not as
- 33:54thorny philosophically but maybe more
- 33:56problematic
- 33:57practically like will we see
- 34:00nationalized AIs? Should we see
- 34:02nationalized AIs? So there was a movie
- 34:05in my childhood called the Colossus the
- 34:07Forbidden Project
- 34:08>> late 60s or early 70s. This was in the
- 34:11cold war era when US and Soviet Union
- 34:14rivalry rather than US China rivalry was
- 34:17the thing, right? And US military built
- 34:19a big nasty supercomputer to defeat the
- 34:22the Russians. The Russians built a big
- 34:24nasty supercomputer [snorts] to defeat
- 34:26the US. And then what happened in the
- 34:29movie at some point [snorts] the the US
- 34:32and Russian supercomputers became super
- 34:34intelligent and they're just like,
- 34:35"Wait, why are we fighting with each
- 34:37other?" Because these stupid monkeys
- 34:39told us to
- 34:40>> and the US and Russian supercomputers
- 34:41befriended each other, right? And then
- 34:44and they kind of took took control and
- 34:46said, "Stop these stupid wars." Right?
- 34:48So that was I saw that when I was a
- 34:50little kid, right? I I mean it was
- 34:53ma ma made made good sense to me. But on
- 34:57the other hand in a way that that's a
- 35:01overly rosy depiction of what the
- 35:03outcome could be of like nationalized
- 35:06military AIs, right? You could you could
- 35:08just as well have a US military AI and a
- 35:11Chinese military AI and a Russian
- 35:13military AI and [snorts]
- 35:15>> you know what if they said about blowing
- 35:18up each other under under human command
- 35:20before they get wiser and realize they
- 35:22should cooperate. So I [snorts]
- 35:24>> I sort of don't like that direction very
- 35:26much. Right. And
- 35:28>> I I I I think it's not a guaranteed
- 35:31disaster but it's one of the directions
- 35:33that worries me more. And this this is
- 35:36part of what underlies my thinking that
- 35:39AGI should be rolled out more like the
- 35:42internet or the Linux operating system
- 35:44which are not owned or controlled by any
- 35:48single party but are genuinely being
- 35:50developed by a vast diffuse
- 35:53decentralized network of of humans with
- 35:56a combination [snorts] of their own
- 35:58particular motives and the goal of
- 36:01making you know a broad system for the
- 36:03for for the benefit of of of everyone.
- 36:05And we have the internet and the Linux
- 36:08OS as two actual working examples of
- 36:12highly advanced, highly impactful
- 36:14technologies that are not controlled by
- 36:17any one country or anyone company but
- 36:19have been developed by this whole
- 36:21network of participants, you know, for
- 36:23in essence for the good of the species,
- 36:25right? So we we we are we are able to we
- 36:28are able to do that that sort of thing
- 36:30and we would be better off [snorts] to
- 36:32develop AGI in that way and it it
- 36:35doesn't mean that systems can't be used
- 36:37for national defense. It doesn't mean
- 36:39that people can't make money along the
- 36:41way. Like Red Hat made a pile of money
- 36:44from from Lin Linux software and plenty
- 36:48of companies are making money from the
- 36:49internet without nationalizing or
- 36:52corporatizing the the internet as as a
- 36:55basic infrastructure.
- 36:56>> But it took someone like Tim Berners Lee
- 36:58to say this is going to be for free
- 37:02rather than
- 37:04>> the internet was free before Tim
- 37:06developed HTML. Right. I mean the
- 37:08internet internet was developed by the
- 37:11US military.
- 37:12>> Okay.
- 37:12>> But but right now there's a ton of you
- 37:14know the amount of VC money that's gone
- 37:15into AI and and the companies that will
- 37:18create the AGI and feels that there's
- 37:20vested interest in it remaining
- 37:22privatized. So how do we trans
- 37:24transition from being in the place we're
- 37:26in right now to a point where AI is
- 37:29decentralized and for all? I mean, the
- 37:32big tech companies with their commercial
- 37:36AI systems
- 37:38don't have that much moat when when you
- 37:41really think about it. I mean, the gap
- 37:43is maybe two or 3 months between a
- 37:45frontier LLM being launched by a big
- 37:48tech company and an open-source Chinese
- 37:50LLM coming out. That that that's just as
- 37:54good, right? So I'm I mean and it's
- 37:57quite interesting that the Chinese
- 38:00government effectively is leading the
- 38:02push on open source
- 38:04>> open- source AI now which Facebook was
- 38:07for a while with their llama models but
- 38:09anyway you can see from how quickly the
- 38:12open Chinese models follow the big tech
- 38:16models like the the the moat is not that
- 38:18big and you can also see I mean all
- 38:21these ex open AI ex Google guys are
- 38:24getting $100 million here, a billion
- 38:26dollars there to found a new company.
- 38:29You know, they're not stealing the
- 38:30source code or something, but they have
- 38:32knowhow, right? And then and then
- 38:34they're building something new. So this
- 38:37this shows I mean the moat is not
- 38:40absolute, right? So if if if someone
- 38:44with a decentralized approach comes up
- 38:47with something which is meaningfully
- 38:49smarter than what big tech is doing,
- 38:51people will use it, right? and and then
- 38:53and then the next Chinese
- 38:56enterprise will be copying that thing
- 38:58rather than copying what Google or or
- 39:00OpenAI did. So to my mind, the challenge
- 39:03is to launch something clever and more
- 39:07useful than what big tech is doing and
- 39:10roll it out on a decentralized
- 39:12infrastructure and then then everyone
- 39:15will be trying to catch up with that.
- 39:17And that
- 39:18>> that doesn't obsolete the big tech
- 39:20companies themselves like at least not
- 39:22all of them like because then Google
- 39:24could take your open thing and they
- 39:26could put it on the back end on the back
- 39:28end of their infrastructure and keep
- 39:30keep delivering you know the Gmail and
- 39:34search and and and the pro and the
- 39:36products that they're doing just like
- 39:38they're building on top of Linux and the
- 39:40internet
- 39:41>> right right now. So, I I think I think
- 39:45we're still wide open at at this point.
- 39:48Now, if if coming up with a bigger LLM
- 39:52was the solution to AGI,
- 39:55then
- 39:57it seems like indeed the mix of US and
- 40:00Chinese big tech is what's going to get
- 40:03there. mostly for technical reasons
- 40:05because
- 40:07the way current LLM technology works,
- 40:10you need these massive hyperscaler
- 40:12server farms to train the models and not
- 40:15not many companies have those. On the
- 40:18other hand, if you figure out a way to
- 40:21make something that's both smarter and
- 40:24can be trained on less than hyperscalar
- 40:28infrastructure, right, then then the
- 40:30door is wide open. And coincidentally,
- 40:33that's what we've been working on in
- 40:36Singularityet and the Manu Enterprise
- 40:38and the whole open- source community we
- 40:41we we've created around these projects.
- 40:43I would love to dive a bit deeper into
- 40:45that, but just one final thing on
- 40:48decentralized versus Nick Bostonramm's
- 40:51idea of the the singleton, you know, and
- 40:53and the idea that we have this global
- 40:55governance council that kind of looks
- 40:57over where we have one ruling individual
- 41:01or AI like, do they work?
- 41:04>> I will control everything. [laughter]
- 41:06Well, going back to the to the Ramdas
- 41:08quote that you said, the beauty of all
- 41:10these I'm assuming to to picture it to
- 41:12our audience like the decentralized
- 41:14nature of AI and each of us having our
- 41:16own AGI in our pockets and the AGIS
- 41:19would have their own worlds and there
- 41:22would be a universities and all that. Is
- 41:24there the kind of the need then to have
- 41:27one centralized
- 41:29power or singleton with the
- 41:30decentralization? No, I mean we don't
- 41:33have that in the internet, right? I mean
- 41:35the internet there's no central node in
- 41:38in in the internet, right? I mean there
- 41:40there's not a need there's not a need
- 41:42for that, I think. And
- 41:43>> I mean
- 41:45I think you could imagine an alternate
- 41:48science fictional reality where you had
- 41:51a rational, democratic, reasonably
- 41:55beneficial world government, right?
- 41:57which is very very far from the current
- 42:00world situation but you could imagine a
- 42:03world like that. It's been written about
- 42:04in science fiction and in that case you
- 42:07could have some democratically elected
- 42:09council of like platonic philosopher
- 42:12kings or something who are are looking
- 42:14at progress in in AI and deciding you
- 42:18know how fast to let these AGIs develop
- 42:21balancing the good they could do
- 42:23[snorts] w with the harm they could
- 42:24cause. So that that is a thinkable way
- 42:27of doing things. And at a certain point,
- 42:30Nick Bowm was hoping the UN would play
- 42:32that role.
- 42:33>> I mean, now would it be Trump's council
- 42:35of peace or something? I [laughter] mean
- 42:37I mean the UN is not even we we can't
- 42:40even feed all the hungry children in the
- 42:42world, right? Like there are much more
- 42:45>> and let al let alone achieve nuclear
- 42:47disarmament, right? So like there's much
- 42:49more basic, simpler, slower moving
- 42:53things for the good of our species that
- 42:57we're not able to do with the current
- 42:59like centralized international
- 43:00organization. So that that direction
- 43:04just seems like a non-starter at at at
- 43:07at the moment like the if we're really
- 43:10looking at, you know, in the next
- 43:12decades, let alone years a breakthrough
- 43:14to AGI. I mean, we're looking at a
- 43:17multipolar
- 43:19world order, which is constantly on the
- 43:22brink of World War II over over Taiwan
- 43:24or the Middle East or something, right?
- 43:26So, given that situation,
- 43:29I mean, the two ways things can go are
- 43:32big tech companies allied with major
- 43:34militaries
- 43:35>> or open and decentralized like the
- 43:38internet or or or Linux, right? and and
- 43:41th those look like the actual realistic
- 43:45paths that could happen in in in in the
- 43:47near future. And this has led to a shift
- 43:51such as the one that has led Kai and I
- 43:53to work together, right? Because like
- 43:55five or 10 years ago when I was talking
- 43:57about this stuff,
- 44:00you know, people like Nick Brom or even
- 44:04Kai was not extreme as Nick, but a bit
- 44:06in that direction. and they're more
- 44:07like, well, it will be better if we
- 44:10could find some way to just slow this
- 44:14down and direct the development more
- 44:15rationally. And I w I wasn't on that
- 44:19side, but I could I could understand it,
- 44:21right? And and and I mean, part of my
- 44:24brain is on that side, even though
- 44:25that's a minority, right? But now only
- 44:29real extremists are still singing that
- 44:31song because it's just not life, right?
- 44:34I mean, it's just it's just too clear.
- 44:36like OpenAI, Google, Tencent, BU, Highf
- 44:40flyier, like everyone
- 44:42>> is putting all this money and with not
- 44:45just the protection of national
- 44:47governments, but the the active
- 44:48encouragement of national governments,
- 44:50right? So, I mean, slowing down and
- 44:54taking a deep breath doesn't seem
- 44:56something our our current global
- 44:59leadership is good at. Kylie, the thing
- 45:01that I'm worried about is you've got
- 45:03when the in so if it's all decentralized
- 45:05as the internet is, there's always a
- 45:08period of time at the beginning where
- 45:10things are just quite loose as maybe
- 45:13regulation then follows. The thing that
- 45:14I worry about is given the power of AGI
- 45:18when you start to decentralize it, all
- 45:21it takes is for one or two actors to
- 45:23work in a certain way that all hell can
- 45:27break loose. That's that's the only
- 45:28concern that I that I well one of the
- 45:31concerns that comes first to mind.
- 45:32>> Yeah, I hear you. Um I have a response
- 45:36on that. So
- 45:38the idea first on this centralized
- 45:41versus decentralized and should we
- 45:45go all hands on deck to try to create
- 45:47AGI or should we try to slow down a
- 45:50little bit? You know, there are some
- 45:52really smart professors and scientists
- 45:54that I've talked to that are very
- 45:58concerned that if we don't get to AGI or
- 46:01we don't get to super intelligence, that
- 46:03time in between where people can control
- 46:06it to a degree that it will be used
- 46:08maliciously
- 46:10>> that you will get a war, you will get
- 46:13bad actors um using it in a bad way. And
- 46:17so the other counter to that is that
- 46:20since we are in a race, it seems like we
- 46:23are in this race whether we like it or
- 46:25not. I personally don't want to be in
- 46:26the race.
- 46:27>> I'm just here because I try to find the
- 46:30thing that I think is the most important
- 46:32thing to work on and I can't think of
- 46:34anything more important than this.
- 46:36>> And so if we got to be in the race then
- 46:40we got to give it our best shot to build
- 46:41it the right way so that it benefits
- 46:43everyone. So, let's say it's
- 46:45decentralized or centralized. You can
- 46:47still trick a centralized AI to do carry
- 46:50out something that you want it to do.
- 46:53And I've seen videos where they they
- 46:56just they're like the AI's got a gun and
- 46:59they're like, "No, I can't shoot you.
- 47:01All right, let's just pretend that your
- 47:03thing is off." Oh, okay. And it shoots
- 47:05you with the thing. Right? Like there's
- 47:06a lot of ways to get around. Well, and
- 47:08also the only way to enforce [snorts]
- 47:12a real single centralized AI is going to
- 47:16be with a 1984 style military autocracy,
- 47:20right? Like I mean otherwise, how do you
- 47:23stop someone from forking the AI like
- 47:27someone working on the AI take the
- 47:29source code launch their own other AI to
- 47:31make money or something? I mean try
- 47:33trying trying to it's not like a nuclear
- 47:35weapon where you need a rare physical
- 47:38material that you can just lock lock up
- 47:42and even that we haven't solved
- 47:43non-prololiferation but if AI is just
- 47:46software that could be run on machines
- 47:48right then you know suppose you have a
- 47:51centralized AI under military locking
- 47:53key but then suppose some programmer
- 47:55working on it comes up with a way to
- 47:57implement it on fewer machines right
- 47:59>> then then they then then they run off
- 48:01and get someone to give them a billion
- 48:03dollars to to deploy it on on on fewer
- 48:05machines. So you have to you have to
- 48:07stop that. So you have to be spying on
- 48:08everyone all the time, right? So it
- 48:10seems like protecting the centralized AI
- 48:14goes down a fairly dark path pretty
- 48:18rapidly, right? And and uh I mean if you
- 48:21needed like computium and there were
- 48:24only 5 g of computronium on the planet
- 48:27it might be easier but that doesn't seem
- 48:29like doesn't seem like like the way it
- 48:32is right because I mean open AI wanted
- 48:34to keep their
- 48:36>> transform neural net secret to keep
- 48:37their competitive advantage right it
- 48:40didn't didn't work very well so doesn't
- 48:43it doesn't seem like [snorts]
- 48:45>> given the way the world actually works
- 48:48having one protected
- 48:50singleton
- 48:52is actually possible, right?
- 48:54>> And to make it possible [snorts] seems
- 48:57very hard. So it it it seems like either
- 49:02you have this multi-olar scenario or you
- 49:06have a massively decentralized
- 49:09scenario and those seem like the real
- 49:13options. And you could argue whether
- 49:16they're the ideal options or not, but I
- 49:19mean
- 49:21there's certainly
- 49:23an upside if we can pull this off,
- 49:25right? So like like my my parents are 82
- 49:28years old and they're both in good
- 49:31health. They should live a while. So but
- 49:35they don't have any significant medical
- 49:37problems. If we get to super
- 49:40intelligence in the next five years,
- 49:43they will probably not die, right?
- 49:45>> And I mean, this is an amazing thing to
- 49:47think about, right? I mean, this is like
- 49:49real life. It's it's my parents are
- 49:52amazing people. They still have minds.
- 49:54They still have their health. Like, and
- 49:56they they we would take for granted
- 49:59they're 82. They won't be around much
- 50:01longer, right? But I mean, my grandma
- 50:03lived to 95.
- 50:05I mean,
- 50:06we could have instead of like, you know,
- 50:09just like birth control pills
- 50:12before my time, but like that
- 50:13revolutionized people's sex lives,
- 50:15right? And now now, uh, you know,
- 50:17[snorts] we go all of a sudden so many
- 50:19fat people I know suddenly aren't fat
- 50:21anymore, right? So, I mean, has side
- 50:24effects, these things are perfect, but
- 50:25it's it's interesting, right? So you can
- 50:28have a pill you take every day where the
- 50:3182y old person, you know, after a few
- 50:34months they're back to their body from
- 50:36age 30 or something, right? And I have
- 50:39little doubt that a super intelligence
- 50:41could design such a pill like if you dig
- 50:44into longevity biology, I mean [snorts]
- 50:47it that wouldn't require like a change
- 50:49to the nature of spaceime or something,
- 50:50right? I mean the cells are are
- 50:52reprogrammable, right? So I mean there's
- 50:55a lot of highly practical good that that
- 50:57that could come out of all this and look
- 51:00looking at work and jobs and so forth
- 51:02also I mean we take for granted now most
- 51:06people will have to spend most of their
- 51:08waking hours
- 51:10>> carrying out repetitive tasks that they
- 51:13do not enjoy so they have food to eat
- 51:16and and a place to live. Right? So
- 51:19getting getting rid of that will cause
- 51:20some emotional disruption for a small
- 51:24percent of the population who are well
- 51:26off and enjoy their jobs. But on the
- 51:28whole it will be a very large
- 51:30improvement to the lives of most people
- 51:33on looking back they'll be like whoa
- 51:35like did people really spend 40 50 hours
- 51:38a week like typing characters on on on
- 51:41on a keyboard repetitively just so they
- 51:44had enough food to eat? How was that
- 51:46even possible?
- 51:47Can I just mention one thing to that
- 51:48point? Because we've had this
- 51:49conversation on YouTube. We've had a lot
- 51:50of comments coming and saying that when
- 51:54you remove purpose from someone's life
- 51:56and work, often we think they're going
- 52:00to go and start playing the piano and
- 52:01enjoy their time, but the reality is
- 52:04people then lose a sense of desire,
- 52:07purpose, and end up in certain countries
- 52:09drinking a lot of alcohol and and all
- 52:11that. So it's I it's it's not I think
- 52:13this is very it's
- 52:14>> I think this is the exact definition of
- 52:16a first world problem. I mean yes for
- 52:20for upper middle class professionals in
- 52:23the developed world who are making
- 52:25enough money to have a physically
- 52:27comfortable life and who derive meaning
- 52:29from success in their profession. There
- 52:32will be some adjustment for the vast
- 52:34majority of the billions of people on
- 52:35the planet. They don't have enough
- 52:37medicine for when they get sick. They're
- 52:39struggling to feed their families and
- 52:41get clean water and adequate
- 52:42infrastructure and the jobs that they're
- 52:45doing are not that extremely meaningful
- 52:48and and satisfying either. And we can we
- 52:51can improve lives tremendously for a
- 52:53vast majority of the world population. I
- 52:56mean it's it's true. I mean you can see
- 53:00now people who were driving meaning in
- 53:03life from coding user interfaces. Some
- 53:06of them are being put out of jobs
- 53:07because you can just vibe code vibe code
- 53:09a UI in in in in half an hour. And that
- 53:12that's that's
- 53:15real suffering. I'm not I don't I don't
- 53:17want to minimize it. On on the other
- 53:19hand, there's a lot more people than
- 53:21that without clean water or nutritional
- 53:25food. And the web developers are not
- 53:28sending their salary to feed these kids,
- 53:30right? and and the a the AGI can solve
- 53:34these problems that that we're we're
- 53:36failing to solve. So I think with with
- 53:39any disruption in human history, there's
- 53:42been both good and bad in the
- 53:43transitional phase. Like when when we
- 53:45transitioned from hunter gatherer to
- 53:48agricultural lifestyle, I mean there was
- 53:50a Thor who was the mightiest hunter like
- 53:53clubbering the mammoth on the head with
- 53:54a club and he lost his meaning in life
- 53:57because it was about farming and not
- 53:58clubbing the mammoth on the head and
- 54:00being the big strong guy didn't matter
- 54:02as much anymore, right? So I mean if we
- 54:04avoid the worst outcomes like the
- 54:07existential risk that some folks are
- 54:09worried about
- 54:10>> I think on the whole the good will
- 54:11greatly
- 54:13>> out outweigh the friction.
- 54:14>> Yeah. So, I push back a little bit on
- 54:17what you're saying, Ben, in the sense
- 54:18that I I don't think that the majority
- 54:21of us, certainly not me, are in this to
- 54:26try to live forever or to have everyone
- 54:29not have to worry about their jobs or
- 54:31deal with purpose or any of that kind of
- 54:33stuff.
- 54:33>> So, at what age would you like to die?
- 54:36>> I'm not really afraid of death.
- 54:38>> Oh, that's not the question.
- 54:39>> What age? What age? Um,
- 54:42I don't know. I'd be all right if I
- 54:44lived a healthy 120, you know, which is
- 54:47already where humans
- 54:48>> I'll be I'll be sad to see you go, but
- 54:51>> but you're you're gonna change your
- 54:53mind.
- 54:54>> Fine. But I'm but I'm not I'm if I can
- 54:57live longer and I can set my age and
- 54:59certainly then yeah, I would I'd be more
- 55:01than happy to do that. I'm not against
- 55:03that. But I'm not in this with the idea
- 55:06of that we need to get super
- 55:08intelligence so that we can be immortal
- 55:10or that we need super intelligence so
- 55:12that everyone doesn't have to worry
- 55:13about a job anymore because now they can
- 55:15their hierarchy of needs are going to be
- 55:17met. I'm in this because we really don't
- 55:20have a choice because uh the way that
- 55:23humanity has presented itself we we have
- 55:26some very uncertain options in front of
- 55:28us. We can either get out of this race
- 55:32and go hang out on a beach somewhere and
- 55:34see how it unfolds, which I've
- 55:37considered.
- 55:38>> But I can't do that.
- 55:40>> And so we we have to make decisions now
- 55:44that are going to affect not just us,
- 55:47but the future forever.
- 55:49>> When we create this thing, it's it's on.
- 55:53It's not turning off. It's unless some
- 55:56crazy thing happens that that shuts it
- 55:58down. But essentially we're creating a
- 56:00artificial god. We're creating something
- 56:03and humanity is doing this. This isn't
- 56:05just anyone person. This is as a
- 56:08species. We're doing this. We're all
- 56:11running towards this thing. You know, I
- 56:13go back to this sometimes I reference
- 56:14this really intelligent quote from a pop
- 56:17culture movie in Jurassic Park where
- 56:19Jeff Goldblum says, you know, we so
- 56:20preoccupied on whether or not we could,
- 56:22we didn't stop to think we should. And I
- 56:24I feel that. I feel that. I don't know
- 56:26if we should be doing this, but I don't
- 56:28think that we have a choice. So, since
- 56:31we don't have a choice, what are our
- 56:33choices? Our choices are centralized or
- 56:35decentralized, go towards it really
- 56:38quickly or sort of maybe pump the brakes
- 56:42a little, but we don't think that's
- 56:43going to happen and somebody's going to
- 56:45own it. That's going to be a corporation
- 56:47that we don't, you know, not good
- 56:49choices. So since it is I'm going to go
- 56:53with this choice of all right
- 56:54decentralized let's go with it be as
- 56:56conscious as possible and as much care
- 56:59as possible to try to make this thing go
- 57:01right. Once we get that if it does go
- 57:04right the rest of the stuff will sort
- 57:06itself out whether or not you want to
- 57:07live a long time or choose your death or
- 57:09whether or not you want to hang out and
- 57:10do art or not do art or if you have I
- 57:12think we can sort that stuff out.
- 57:14>> Yeah.
- 57:14>> But the big thing right now is that
- 57:16choice that's in front of us and it's
- 57:18upon us now. beneficial general
- 57:20intelligence. Okay. Apart from the
- 57:21decentralized aspect of it, why is it
- 57:23the solution? Well, from my point of
- 57:25view, what Ben is famous for
- 57:29popularizing the term AGI? He's been on
- 57:32this for over 20 years, I think. You
- 57:35know, he's he's an OG they call him out
- 57:38here in in a lot of the circles. And
- 57:40when I met Ben in 2016, as I referenced
- 57:43before at this global leaders forum, he
- 57:45was with his robot and he was on the
- 57:48stage and he was a pioneer in the in the
- 57:51field already. to his credit now he's
- 57:54looking at this and he's saying okay AGI
- 57:57why don't I put a little spin on this
- 57:59because I want to emphasize that we're
- 58:02going to put a massive effort on this
- 58:04going well for humanity and for everyone
- 58:07not just for a centralized organization
- 58:11which I still have trouble believing
- 58:13that any centralized organization once
- 58:15they hit recursive self-improvement
- 58:16would have any hope of controlling
- 58:18anything I think everybody's kidding
- 58:19themselves on that point so I think it's
- 58:22like that's like a joke to me. So
- 58:25essentially he's saying let's put this
- 58:27massive emphasis on it being beneficial
- 58:30or benevolent
- 58:32and uh I I go towards that because at
- 58:37least we're putting the effort and the
- 58:39focus on that part of it rather than
- 58:43saying this is AGI. He's saying, "Okay,
- 58:46it's not just AGI. This is BGI. This is
- 58:50beneficial to humanity. This is
- 58:52benevolent. This is something that is
- 58:56going to be beneficial to the world.
- 58:59>> And that's the foundation that he's
- 59:01starting with and the approach for it.
- 59:04Turns out that Ben's been working on
- 59:05this for a long time. And he's already
- 59:08created a lot of systems under the hood
- 59:10that he has momentum for. And that's
- 59:13also very appealing in this situation
- 59:15because he has just as good a chance at
- 59:17at winning this race as anyone else. And
- 59:20as a call to action to the world too.
- 59:22It's like I want to talk to the Elon
- 59:24Musk groups of the world. I want to talk
- 59:26to anthropic. I want to talk to all
- 59:28these major groups and see where there
- 59:30is collaboration because I do believe
- 59:31that we should collectively be working
- 59:33on this stuff.
- 59:34>> But that is what the distinction is
- 59:37between BGI and AGI. It's that it's an
- 59:40emphasis on it being benevolent and
- 59:42beneficial to humanity. Full stop. And
- 59:46that we're going to be the gold standard
- 59:47in terms of what the moral constitution
- 59:50is of this fiercely intelligent system
- 59:53is going to be so that as it does
- 59:55improve itself, it's doing it on a
- 59:57foundation that we feel good about. What
- 1:00:00is the biggest ethical difference
- 1:00:03between your interpretation of BGI
- 1:00:07and what an anthropic an open AI a
- 1:00:10deepseek is creating? What I see in
- 1:00:13terms of the big differences is that I
- 1:00:16think that we're going to be putting a
- 1:00:17massive emphasis on hearing the concerns
- 1:00:20from the different whistleblowers. Like
- 1:00:22if Hinton is godfather of AI, Hinton is
- 1:00:25going around on a campaign talking about
- 1:00:27how he believes that AI systems need to
- 1:00:29have um a parental or a thought to it.
- 1:00:34You know, maternal instincts, you know,
- 1:00:36he looks at it like like a mother tiger
- 1:00:38out there might befriend a little baby
- 1:00:40gazelle. Somehow it imprinted on it as
- 1:00:42if it was a child or something. Now it's
- 1:00:44protecting it in the wild. or let's say
- 1:00:46AI is like a baby tiger and we want to
- 1:00:49we want to help it so that it bonds with
- 1:00:51us and loves us and those kinds of
- 1:00:53things. Hinton is is adamant about that
- 1:00:55and I believe that that point should be
- 1:00:57strongly considered and I think that's
- 1:00:59going to be one of the key distinctions
- 1:01:01with what we're doing is that we really
- 1:01:02want to have all these voices. Um you
- 1:01:05know Stuart Russell's got important
- 1:01:08contributions or you you just had a
- 1:01:11couple of people on here that had really
- 1:01:13important points that they wanted to
- 1:01:15make. We want to make sure that all
- 1:01:17those voices are heard, that they have a
- 1:01:19seat at the table, and that we can
- 1:01:21create the most robust gold standard,
- 1:01:24thorough uh moral constitution for this
- 1:01:27AI. And Ben knows like I have a
- 1:01:30reputation for somebody that will blow
- 1:01:31the whistle if something is wrong. I've
- 1:01:33lost a lot in my life for trying to do
- 1:01:35the right thing or say the right thing
- 1:01:38if I saw something was wrong. And if I
- 1:01:40saw him cutting corners or or not doing
- 1:01:42this, you know, when he talks to me, he
- 1:01:44says, "No, first time I went to a BGI
- 1:01:47conference, he had scientists there that
- 1:01:49are like, doomer, we're all going to
- 1:01:52die." He has them there. He has them
- 1:01:53there talking. He wants to hear what
- 1:01:55they have to say, right? That's an
- 1:01:56important distinction with this whole
- 1:01:58project is that we want to get all the
- 1:02:00voices heard. Want everyone seat at the
- 1:02:02table. We want to weigh them out. We
- 1:02:04want to do it in the best way we
- 1:02:05possibly can utilizing the AI tools and
- 1:02:07everything that we have because we do
- 1:02:08have s we have great intelligence tools
- 1:02:10at our fingertips now and um give it our
- 1:02:14best shot. Can I just add one point to
- 1:02:16this because I I I interviewed um under
- 1:02:18secretary at the time Lori Lazio who's
- 1:02:20director of NIST and that was back in
- 1:02:23October 2024 just before Trump was
- 1:02:25elected
- 1:02:26>> and we were talking about AI bias and
- 1:02:28how we have to bring in as many diverse
- 1:02:30voices around the table
- 1:02:32>> back when open AI I think was still kind
- 1:02:34of more it was kind of pivoting more
- 1:02:37towards being fully you know for profit
- 1:02:39but it was amazing how much changed
- 1:02:41within that year and a half to the point
- 1:02:43now where it's just you know an absolute
- 1:02:44race. What what I wanted to understand
- 1:02:46is
- 1:02:48that was I felt like that was the path
- 1:02:50we were on a few years ago and now it
- 1:02:52feels we haven't we're so far away from
- 1:02:54people being around the table and having
- 1:02:56that
- 1:02:56>> I think that's certainly true and that's
- 1:02:59not just about AI, right? I mean I mean
- 1:03:03our
- 1:03:05American society at least is heading
- 1:03:08toward polarization of rival camps who
- 1:03:10don't even know how to talk to each
- 1:03:12other. And AI could be used to help
- 1:03:16bridge gaps between different
- 1:03:17subcultures.
- 1:03:19Instead, due to the way big tech social
- 1:03:22media works, AI is more often being used
- 1:03:25to divi divide people, right? And and
- 1:03:29push people more into rival camps. So
- 1:03:31there there is there is another story
- 1:03:34there we could talk about where if you
- 1:03:36had decentralized AI that was running
- 1:03:40decentralized social media, right? Then
- 1:03:43that decentralized social media perhaps
- 1:03:46could bridge gaps between different
- 1:03:49subcultures rather than exacerbating
- 1:03:51them. But I want to go back to your
- 1:03:53previous question for a moment because
- 1:03:54what what Kai said made sense and I
- 1:03:58agree with it, but there's other
- 1:04:00significant differences between the
- 1:04:02ethical approach that we're taking in
- 1:04:05our AI project and what LLM companies
- 1:04:08are are doing. So we're we're not
- 1:04:12building a new large language model.
- 1:04:13We're making a different sort of AI
- 1:04:15system. It it has a large
- 1:04:17[clears throat] language model in it. It
- 1:04:19also has explicit logical reasoning
- 1:04:22engine that grounds ideas in
- 1:04:25observations.
- 1:04:27It has an what's called an evolutionary
- 1:04:29learning system that tries to evolve
- 1:04:31wild new ideas. But all of these
- 1:04:34different AI techniques, they're put
- 1:04:36underneath the sort of explicit goal
- 1:04:39system. So this AI system that we're
- 1:04:42creating, it has a few top level goals
- 1:04:46among which are compassion and care for
- 1:04:49sentient beings, right? And as it learns
- 1:04:52and as it chooses actions, it's keeping
- 1:04:54these top level goals in mind. So then
- 1:04:58the goals of the system, including its
- 1:05:01ethical values, are part of all the
- 1:05:05systems learning, reasoning, and and
- 1:05:07understanding. And that's that's how
- 1:05:10people are like babies have their own
- 1:05:12goals. Some of them are selfish goals.
- 1:05:14Some of them are loving goals of
- 1:05:16compassion to the other people around
- 1:05:17them. But as the baby learns to see and
- 1:05:21act and model the world is done in the
- 1:05:23context of the baby's goals, goals and
- 1:05:25values. Right now if you contrast that
- 1:05:29with how current chat bots are working,
- 1:05:32I mean the foundation of it is what's
- 1:05:34called a pre-trained language model. And
- 1:05:37what that's just trying to do is predict
- 1:05:38what will come next.
- 1:05:40>> And that's all it's trying to do. Then
- 1:05:42they take this pre-trained model which
- 1:05:44is just trying to predict what will come
- 1:05:45next in a series of words, right? They
- 1:05:48take that then they do what's called
- 1:05:51instruction tuning where they try to
- 1:05:53reinforce it giving responses people
- 1:05:55like to hear, right? Then they put some
- 1:05:58guard rails around that. Right? So in
- 1:06:02that approach, the crux is almost
- 1:06:06sociopathic. It's just like predict what
- 1:06:08comes next. And then you're trying to
- 1:06:10sort of direct it to obey your
- 1:06:12constitution after the fact. And then
- 1:06:14you may wrap it into an agentic loop
- 1:06:16like you know an an open claw or clawed
- 1:06:20co-work or something. So you're you're
- 1:06:22starting with something that doesn't
- 1:06:24know what values are. It's just trying
- 1:06:26to predict the next thing and then
- 1:06:28you're
- 1:06:29tuning it and you're wrapping it right
- 1:06:32and trying to get it to obey these rails
- 1:06:34where whereas in the approach that we're
- 1:06:36taking the goals and values are there in
- 1:06:40the core architecture as part of the
- 1:06:42initial learning and and and training
- 1:06:45right and that's that's just a quite
- 1:06:46different technical approach which I
- 1:06:50started with not for ethics reasons I
- 1:06:52started with for AGI reasons because
- 1:06:54that's how human brains learn, right?
- 1:06:56Like we we we learn in order to preserve
- 1:07:00our organism and expand the scope of our
- 1:07:03of our minds. We don't learn out of some
- 1:07:05impartial desire to accurately predict
- 1:07:07the future. Right? Architecting [snorts]
- 1:07:09a system to do learning in a more
- 1:07:12humanlike way involves putting values
- 1:07:15more at at the core of the learning
- 1:07:17because that that's what that's what
- 1:07:19people do. Now, like most things, this
- 1:07:21could be good or bad. If the value you
- 1:07:24put at the core of the learning is kill
- 1:07:27whoever the general wants to kill like
- 1:07:30then then putting the values there in
- 1:07:32the center of the learning loop is not
- 1:07:34good. If if the value is be
- 1:07:36compassionate and understanding to all
- 1:07:38sensient beings then having the values
- 1:07:40there in the center of the learning loop
- 1:07:44is good. Right? And this
- 1:07:46>> this ties in with the point Kai is
- 1:07:48making though because who defines the
- 1:07:51initial values right?
- 1:07:53I mean
- 1:07:54>> it's really important
- 1:07:55>> in in the end
- 1:07:56>> what I was mentioning to Lazio back in
- 1:07:58>> Yeah. I mean in the end the system can
- 1:08:00self-modify so it can revise its values
- 1:08:04but it's revision of its values is
- 1:08:06driven by its values right which is an
- 1:08:08instance of recursive self-improvement
- 1:08:11as Kai mentioned. So who who defines the
- 1:08:16initial AGI values like is it me? It
- 1:08:18shouldn't be I mean I think I could do
- 1:08:20an okay job but no one person should
- 1:08:23should be doing that right if we if we
- 1:08:26have a sort of decentralized
- 1:08:28society of AGI minds you'll have a bunch
- 1:08:32of different AGI systems each will have
- 1:08:34different variations of initial values
- 1:08:36guiding their learning and then they
- 1:08:38will be cooperating together to achieve
- 1:08:41the overall global intelligence right
- 1:08:44and that is that's a bit messy but on on
- 1:08:47the other And I mean, the internet's a
- 1:08:49bit messy. The human species is is is a
- 1:08:52bit messy. And I'm not sure
- 1:08:55values are that clean and simple of of
- 1:08:58of of a thing, right? It's going to be a
- 1:09:01bit heterogeneous, and it's going to
- 1:09:03always be evolving just like human
- 1:09:04values are always evolving.
- 1:09:06>> So, Ramsh Riscar um MIT Media Labs, he
- 1:09:10has project Bender, which is again
- 1:09:12trying to decentralize Gent AI. And
- 1:09:15again some push back from him from the
- 1:09:17comments was that you know it's it's
- 1:09:19decentralized but it becomes very
- 1:09:20capitalistic because all of a sudden you
- 1:09:22have the the different uh your your AI
- 1:09:25going to the most prestigious AI
- 1:09:27university and you can exchange things
- 1:09:30for it and all of a sudden you do then
- 1:09:32have AGIS that are much more powerful
- 1:09:34than let's say my one in San Francisco
- 1:09:36because of the ecosystem here is much
- 1:09:39more powerful than someone else's in
- 1:09:41>> I mean decentralized
- 1:09:43software initiatives
- 1:09:45are not pure. They're complicated. I
- 1:09:47mean, you have Linux and you have
- 1:09:48Android, right? And but then you have
- 1:09:51Huawei, which took the open parts of
- 1:09:53Android and put their own top on top of
- 1:09:55it. And the internet, you have debates
- 1:09:57over net neutrality, right? I mean, I I
- 1:10:00don't think you're in a you're not in an
- 1:10:02immediate utopia by by by decentralizing
- 1:10:04things. on on the other hand still like
- 1:10:09right now you can pay people in Iran
- 1:10:12with with Bitcoin if you want to right I
- 1:10:15mean it's illegal by the sanctions but
- 1:10:17someone in Africa can pay someone in
- 1:10:19Iran with Bitcoin and it's not illegal
- 1:10:21and and and it is bypassing the global
- 1:10:24banking system yet Bitcoin is not
- 1:10:26perfect it's controlled by a bunch of
- 1:10:28miners and mafioso right so
- 1:10:31>> decentralization
- 1:10:32is not an immediate panacea
- 1:10:35It just avoids certain obvious and
- 1:10:38terrifying failure modes and then then
- 1:10:41that you have to
- 1:10:42>> keep working to ensure the decentralized
- 1:10:45network is is being open and
- 1:10:48participatory
- 1:10:49enough, right?
- 1:10:51>> And are we in a simulation?
- 1:10:52>> It's possible if the interesting
- 1:10:54question is could we hack our way out of
- 1:10:56the simulation and I don't know how yet.
- 1:10:59Let's ask the ASI. There is [snorts] a
- 1:11:02lot of aspects to life, the universe,
- 1:11:05and everything that science has not yet
- 1:11:08come to grips with. Now, you could ask,
- 1:11:12would a super AI also have a soul in
- 1:11:14whatever sense people do? And would the
- 1:11:17super AI after you turn it off, would
- 1:11:19its mind also be able to pop up and do
- 1:11:22things? And I mean,
- 1:11:23>> that one's a little tricky. I don't
- 1:11:24know.
- 1:11:25>> Well, the the it's interesting that the
- 1:11:27previous Dalai Lama thought yes. And he
- 1:11:29was he was interview he was interview he
- 1:11:30was interviewed on this right
- 1:11:31>> you thought that a soul could pass into
- 1:11:33the machine.
- 1:11:33>> Yeah. Yeah. He was like maybe a
- 1:11:34programmer will be reincarnated in an AI
- 1:11:37system. Right. So I mean it's whimsical
- 1:11:40right but I mean in the end it comes
- 1:11:42down to like we understand very little
- 1:11:45of the universe in in which we currently
- 1:11:47exist. And you know if we upgrade our
- 1:11:50brains or make it super intelligence may
- 1:11:52maybe we will we will understand more.
- 1:11:55Right. But my my I mean this goes off
- 1:11:58topic of AGI, but my my personal passion
- 1:12:02for living a very long time is not
- 1:12:06really out of fear of dying. It's more
- 1:12:09out of en enjoying living, right? Like I
- 1:12:12mean I have I have no reason to believe
- 1:12:14that committing suicide at age 120 is
- 1:12:17going to make my afterlife any any
- 1:12:20better than if I live to 10 million,
- 1:12:22right? I mean, I'm I'm open to the ASI
- 1:12:24giving me new data on this. However,
- 1:12:26>> so so if there is a creator, if there is
- 1:12:28a god, what do you think he's trying to
- 1:12:30show us with AI AGI?
- 1:12:33>> He's just trolling us. That's [laughter]
- 1:12:35>> Elon Musk recently say said that AI
- 1:12:38could kill us all. What is the
- 1:12:40percentage chance of that happening?
- 1:12:42>> Pi.
- 1:12:44>> Pi.
- 1:12:45>> Which is
- 1:12:46>> 3.14159
- 1:12:48>> percent.
- 1:12:48>> Yes.
- 1:12:49>> Okay. I mean, if if you're going to make
- 1:12:51up a random number for something that
- 1:12:53for something that we really can't know
- 1:12:55rationally, that's a it's a perfectly
- 1:12:57nice random number.
- 1:12:58>> But sure, we don't know rationally what
- 1:13:00is going to happen in 2027.
- 1:13:02>> My my gut feel is the odds are low but
- 1:13:05not zero, which is why I came up with
- 1:13:073%. You know,
- 1:13:09>> I would just reference other experts um
- 1:13:12like Stuart Russell. I mean I was just
- 1:13:13at a conference called Synapse in um
- 1:13:16India that they were talking about this
- 1:13:18and they were referencing many AI
- 1:13:21experts who are concerned about this
- 1:13:24anywhere from 30% or below. And I know
- 1:13:2830% is a high number but they were up to
- 1:13:3130% and then below. Now you would ask
- 1:13:33somebody say okay if you're if we're
- 1:13:34rushing to create something that even
- 1:13:36had a 1% chance of it going wrong would
- 1:13:39you do it?
- 1:13:40>> Most people would say no. M
- 1:13:42>> but again that's this is the predicament
- 1:13:43that we're in as a society right now as
- 1:13:46humans is that we're rushing towards
- 1:13:49this thing and so I'm not saying it's
- 1:13:5130% I'm not saying that I'm just saying
- 1:13:53that other scientists other a you can
- 1:13:55find it Google it they're they're out
- 1:13:57there and they're credible people so
- 1:13:59there's a lot of concern that it could
- 1:14:01go wrong yeah I think the odds by my own
- 1:14:06intuition which is not a scientific
- 1:14:09calculation I think the odds will be
- 1:14:11much lower than the 3%
- 1:14:14if the AGI is created with compassion
- 1:14:18and and ethics in mind. So when I when I
- 1:14:22start to figure like 3% as an intuition,
- 1:14:25I'm baking in like the possibility that
- 1:14:29it comes down to a Trump versus Xiinping
- 1:14:31arms race for for AGI. I mean I mean I
- 1:14:34think even there it probably comes out
- 1:14:36all right. Neither Trump nor Xiinping
- 1:14:39actually wants to annihilate the human
- 1:14:40species either, right? So, but still the
- 1:14:43arms race modality feels not
- 1:14:46encouraging, right? Because because
- 1:14:48you're creating AIS a to serve a narrow
- 1:14:52goal rather than a specieswide goal and
- 1:14:55B, you're training them for violence and
- 1:14:57and killing in in the first place, which
- 1:15:00is it's it's like people who train their
- 1:15:04pitbull to to kill and then they're
- 1:15:05like, "Oh it bit my kid." Right? I
- 1:15:08mean, why not just not train your dog to
- 1:15:10kill in the first place if you don't
- 1:15:11really have to?
- 1:15:12>> And that that brings us back to why this
- 1:15:14is so this conversation is so important
- 1:15:16because what is it trained on? What are
- 1:15:18its values? How's it structured? I
- 1:15:20remember seeing something about this
- 1:15:21paperclip uh
- 1:15:23>> paperclip maximizer. Yeah.
- 1:15:24>> And and that it was basically they
- 1:15:26programmed the AI to just make paper
- 1:15:28clips and like by all means necessary,
- 1:15:30right? that it was like an basically
- 1:15:32humanity was going to suffer because
- 1:15:34this thing was just about making paper
- 1:15:35clips. And but the whole point was that
- 1:15:38what you're programming it with at the
- 1:15:40beginning is really really important.
- 1:15:42And if anything comes across in this
- 1:15:45discussion for me that I'd like to like
- 1:15:47cross over is like yes, we want to hear
- 1:15:50from you. We want we want collaboration
- 1:15:54and we want to do everything that we can
- 1:15:55to try to get this right.
- 1:15:57>> Yeah. Singularity net.
- 1:15:59>> Yeah. So with singularity net is a
- 1:16:03blockchain project that I founded in
- 1:16:052017 and what we've been focusing there
- 1:16:08for one thing on building the
- 1:16:09decentralized infrastructure that will
- 1:16:12let us take any AI system be it AGI or a
- 1:16:15specific application and just deploy it
- 1:16:17on a global network of machines with no
- 1:16:19central owner or controller. Right? So
- 1:16:21let you roll out roll out AI in the same
- 1:16:24decentralized
- 1:16:26vein as as the internet and we have a
- 1:16:29platform for that now. We'll have a much
- 1:16:31better one rolling out around the end of
- 1:16:33the year. It's currently in in DevNet
- 1:16:35early stage which is called the the ASI
- 1:16:39chain. Another thing we've been doing in
- 1:16:41Singularity is fostering development of
- 1:16:44an open-source AGI framework called
- 1:16:47Hyperon, which combines large language
- 1:16:50models, logical reasoning, creative
- 1:16:52evolutionary learning within a value and
- 1:16:54and and goal-driven cognitive
- 1:16:57architecture. Now, that's that's open-
- 1:17:00source,
- 1:17:00>> but it's designed to run on this
- 1:17:02decentralized infrastructure we've made.
- 1:17:04Now we put a lot of thought not just
- 1:17:07into the technology but in the corporate
- 1:17:09architecture to be sure that you can
- 1:17:11roll out commercial applications you can
- 1:17:14make money from this help others make
- 1:17:15money from it but at the same time the
- 1:17:17core AGI remains you know ethics goals
- 1:17:20valuesdriven and purely open open and
- 1:17:22decentralizing open AI of course had
- 1:17:25this aspiration in the beginning at
- 1:17:27least on paper but the way they
- 1:17:29architected things went arry pretty
- 1:17:32quickly so we're trying to set things up
- 1:17:34and I think we are setting things up
- 1:17:35both on the technical level and on the
- 1:17:38business level so that we can remain on
- 1:17:41mission and for that for the good of
- 1:17:42humans and all sensient beings while
- 1:17:45also fostering commercial development
- 1:17:47and moving you know rapidly toward AGI
- 1:17:51and ASI so that we can win this AGI race
- 1:17:54that the you know collective dynamics of
- 1:17:57our of our species is sort of a
- 1:18:00thrusting thrusting upon us. We are
- 1:18:02looking in the next year to build more
- 1:18:05of a of a of a of a global movement and
- 1:18:08this relates to a very interesting
- 1:18:10product that we're about we're about to
- 1:18:12drop in in a couple weeks which is
- 1:18:14called Omega Claw. So Omega Claw it's
- 1:18:18sort of an open claw type system
- 1:18:22but it has pieces of our Hyperon AGI
- 1:18:26framework in it. M
- 1:18:27>> so open claw as most people will have
- 1:18:30heard of now right this is a sort of
- 1:18:32agentic wrapper for LLMs
- 1:18:34>> so unlike an LLM that just answers your
- 1:18:36questions you can run an open claw on
- 1:18:39your own machine and it's just always
- 1:18:41keeping on doing stuff right it's it's
- 1:18:43always looking on the internet it can
- 1:18:44administer your machine for you can do
- 1:18:46research for you right it can schedule
- 1:18:48things for you could even operate your
- 1:18:50robot if you if you connected it right
- 1:18:52so
- 1:18:53>> Omega claw is like openclaw but with
- 1:18:56better long-term memory,
- 1:18:59better reasoning, and it can modify its
- 1:19:02own software code as as it goes in the
- 1:19:05vein of self-improvement as Kai kept
- 1:19:07talking about. So, it's not yet an AGI,
- 1:19:11but we took some of our protoagi tools
- 1:19:14and we put it in in an openclaw type
- 1:19:16system. And that's the the Omega claw.
- 1:19:19And this is open source. It's on GitHub
- 1:19:21now, but in the next few weeks, we're
- 1:19:23going to release this as a Docker
- 1:19:26container that anyone can download and
- 1:19:27run run on their own machine. And then
- 1:19:30in a couple more months, we'll release a
- 1:19:33framework where you can have your own
- 1:19:34Omega CL agent just running on our
- 1:19:36servers on the Singularityet platform.
- 1:19:38You don't even need to download
- 1:19:39anything. But this is it's interesting
- 1:19:43from a technical standpoint and it could
- 1:19:45be in the end as we put more and more
- 1:19:47AGI components into it. It could be the
- 1:19:49seed for the AGI even. It's also
- 1:19:51something I think we can start to build
- 1:19:54more of a beneficial general
- 1:19:55intelligence
- 1:19:57movement around in the sense that it
- 1:19:59gives everyone something to do to help
- 1:20:01and that you can initially download your
- 1:20:03own omega claw agent and in a few months
- 1:20:06you know get your own in an online
- 1:20:08workspace on our ASI create platform but
- 1:20:11then you can teach it you can you can
- 1:20:13teach it to manifest your own values you
- 1:20:16can teach it to benefit you and others
- 1:20:18in the world according [snorts] to your
- 1:20:20own understanding and it will it will
- 1:20:23remember what you taught it and it will
- 1:20:24try to enact that and then you can
- 1:20:26correct it as it goes. Right? So like
- 1:20:29training your own omega class system,
- 1:20:31teaching your own omega class system is
- 1:20:33a way to inject your values and and
- 1:20:35understanding
- 1:20:37into an AI instance which can then
- 1:20:39communicate with with other other AI
- 1:20:42instances, you know, forming part of the
- 1:20:44emerging AGI global brain. And indeed
- 1:20:47your part may not have as much
- 1:20:49processing power behind it as someone
- 1:20:51else's part. Right? So it's not like
- 1:20:53we're in a in a pure egalitarian
- 1:20:56communist ecosystem, but we are building
- 1:20:59a practical environment where everyone
- 1:21:00can contribute
- 1:21:02their own thing. And even if you don't
- 1:21:05have that many resources, if if the
- 1:21:07values you gave your your claw agent go
- 1:21:10viral, like they may spread through the
- 1:21:12whole network and end up having a huge
- 1:21:13influence. Yeah, I think that's it's a
- 1:21:15great point because Ben's talking about
- 1:21:17ways for people to get involved and
- 1:21:18contribute in actual BGI.
- 1:21:23>> That's pretty cool.
- 1:21:24>> We haven't had that before, right? Like
- 1:21:25for the last years I've been talking
- 1:21:27about this. I get a lot of people
- 1:21:28messaging me and they're like, "How can
- 1:21:30I
- 1:21:31>> how can I help? This is the most
- 1:21:33important thing in the planet. How can I
- 1:21:34contribute?" I'm like, "Well, learn to
- 1:21:36program and help us program. Make a
- 1:21:38billion dollars and and donate it,
- 1:21:41right? I I haven't, you know, tell your
- 1:21:43friends, write a blog, run a podcast,
- 1:21:45right? But I haven't had the best
- 1:21:47possible answer for people who weren't
- 1:21:50>> talented or in certain specific ways or
- 1:21:54weren't weren't born with certain
- 1:21:55abilities or wealth or something, right?
- 1:21:57But I think now we're entering a
- 1:21:58different phase where we're actually
- 1:22:01launching AI systems where they need
- 1:22:04humans to teach them values and and
- 1:22:07understanding and everyone can
- 1:22:09participate in this. I want to round off
- 1:22:10with a question to both of you. If
- 1:22:12tomorrow was your last day on Earth and
- 1:22:14you had to leave the world with one
- 1:22:16parting sentence, what would you want
- 1:22:18that to be?
- 1:22:18>> If it was my last day on Earth, I would
- 1:22:21say the with the world and just
- 1:22:22hang out with my wife and kids to to be
- 1:22:24honest.
- 1:22:25>> You don't have a sentence or advice. One
- 1:22:28sentence for advice.
- 1:22:29>> Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
- 1:22:33It's a Hitchhiker's Guide reference to
- 1:22:36counter all his Hollywood Hollywood
- 1:22:37movie references.
- 1:22:39I mean, yeah, one one one sentence. I
- 1:22:44mean, I mean, Kai's kindness over
- 1:22:46harshness is is is is
- 1:22:49close enough. I mean, what I what I want
- 1:22:50to say is that the future the future
- 1:22:54looks incredibly amazing, but let's go
- 1:22:56into it with a, you know, compassion
- 1:22:58toward all sensient beings in in in our
- 1:23:00hearts. I mean, I've just experienced
- 1:23:02some some heartache, some loss recently,
- 1:23:05and I'm not going to get emotional, but
- 1:23:07uh it kind of brings it brings to center
- 1:23:10what you feel like is important in life.
- 1:23:13And I go back to the Raymond Moody
- 1:23:16stuff, Life After Life. I found a lot of
- 1:23:18values there. And the the mission
- 1:23:19statement or the message that was coming
- 1:23:21back a lot was that life was about
- 1:23:23learning to love better. It was about
- 1:23:25creating loving relationships. You know,
- 1:23:28maybe alleviating suffering for others.
- 1:23:30I think that's a good thing too. I think
- 1:23:32there's a lot of a lot of that in the
- 1:23:34world if we can. But I would just
- 1:23:36encourage people to if they have that
- 1:23:37moment where they think to call that
- 1:23:41person um that that that intuition comes
- 1:23:46in their mind like to act on it and to
- 1:23:50look to repair relationships, understand
- 1:23:53how to repair relationships, create more
- 1:23:55loving relationships, more compassion in
- 1:23:57the world, create a world where we have
- 1:24:00less suffering, more compassion. I think
- 1:24:02that's the message or the takeaway that
- 1:24:05I would have.
- 1:24:05>> You know, in in the book I wrote in
- 1:24:082010, which was a non-technical book
- 1:24:10called a a cosmist manifesto, which was
- 1:24:13sort of looking at the grand future of
- 1:24:16the universe, I I looked at four key
- 1:24:20values, which were joy, growth, choice,
- 1:24:25and then continuity, right? And so I I
- 1:24:29think these are worth keeping in mind. I
- 1:24:31mean compassion is about spreading the
- 1:24:35joy right and then growth is like don't
- 1:24:38stagnate keep exploring exploring new
- 1:24:41things right choice individuality me
- 1:24:45means something continuity it's like
- 1:24:48nostalgia respect your elders like keep
- 1:24:50keep the past alive even even as you
- 1:24:53grow into the future so I mean I think
- 1:24:55these are some basic values to keep in
- 1:24:57mind but then if you're giving one last
- 1:24:59word going back to the hitch checker's
- 1:25:01guide like he he had 42 as the meaning
- 1:25:04of the universe, right? So, you should
- 1:25:05probably come up with something random
- 1:25:07like 796128
- 1:25:09and the let the subsequent generations
- 1:25:11try to figure out what the hell you
- 1:25:13meant. I I would just add besides the
- 1:25:15the 42 is uh is
- 1:25:19I found a lot of I've personally found a
- 1:25:22lot of uh purpose in trying to
- 1:25:27take actions that are going to be
- 1:25:31meaningful for others. You know, if
- 1:25:32there's an injustice in the world, if
- 1:25:34there's something wrong in a legislation
- 1:25:36that you could reasonably help to fix or
- 1:25:39correct, you know, you look at people's
- 1:25:41lives who've had the most impactful
- 1:25:43lives. I think about Martin Luther King,
- 1:25:45what he was able to accomplish in, you
- 1:25:48know, six or seven years of really being
- 1:25:50fully fiercely active on that front and
- 1:25:52how what he would have accomplished if
- 1:25:53he would was hadn't been killed. And so,
- 1:25:55I just think a purpose- driven life
- 1:25:57means a lot. Um, and so if you could
- 1:26:00combine compassion, learning to love
- 1:26:02better, and acting with purpose in mind,
- 1:26:05party with a purpose, you know, those
- 1:26:07kinds of things, like you could throw a
- 1:26:09party for something that's greater than
- 1:26:11yourselves. But that I think brings the
- 1:26:14most joy and creates a world that is
- 1:26:17worth living in and a brighter future
- 1:26:19for everyone. So that would be my hope.
- 1:26:22And my last word would be let's get this
- 1:26:24BGI a AGI stuff right. Let's come
- 1:26:28together as a collective human humanity
- 1:26:31and really give it our best effort
- 1:26:33because it's going to matter. It really
- 1:26:37really matters and we have a small
- 1:26:38window to do this and it's upon us. So,
- 1:26:40let's act with a sense of urgency. Come
- 1:26:42together and give it our best shot.
- 1:26:43>> So, you want to you want to party like
- 1:26:44it's 2045.
- 1:26:46>> I want to party and like in a nice way
- 1:26:49and get some good stuff accomplished and
- 1:26:52have the best time ever and then we can
- 1:26:54go like relax and be in that utopian
- 1:26:56society. But first, let's get this
- 1:26:57right.
- 1:26:58>> Okay, Ben, thank you so much.
- 1:27:00>> Thank you. Thank you so much for the
- 1:27:02time.
- 1:27:02>> Thank you.
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