Absturz! Das mache ich JETZT! — Transcript

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1. 0:00Well, here we are in this mess.
2. 0:02The bull market is clearly no longer
3. 0:04intact.
4. 0:06The indices collapsed massively for me
5. 0:08yesterday, and for you the day before,
6. 0:10when you see this video.
7. 0:12I want to talk about the reasons and how
8. 0:15I am behaving now. Let's get started.
9. 0:23I welcome you warmly and I hope you are
10. 0:25doing well.
11. 0:27So, these are likely the heaviest losses
12. 0:30in indices we have seen in a long, long
13. 0:33time, and in some sectors, even more,
14. 0:35like the Nikkei limit down.
15. 0:38Important for you to put this in context
16. 0:41, I am recording this video now on
17. 0:43Friday at 9:21 AM. That means I don't
18. 0:45know how the US session went yet. When
19. 0:47you see this video on Saturday morning,
20. 0:50you will already be a bit wiser.
21. 0:53At this point, by the way, I apologize
22. 0:55to my valued podcast audience that I
23. 0:57have to use this slot again today to
24. 0:59make a video with visuals, like most
25. 1:01videos.
26. 1:03So, what I mean by that is, this is
27. 1:04actually podcast time, but simply too
28. 1:06much has happened. That is why we have
29. 1:08to look at what happened here.
30. 1:11We will do that shortly.
31. 1:13We have always said that this rally is
32. 1:15intact as long as A: The hyperscalers
33. 1:18deliver on their quarterly results.
34. 1:20We can establish that. They did deliver
35. 1:23. The numbers were very good, the
36. 1:25outlook was very good.
37. 1:27What already led to an initial
38. 1:29deterioration in sentiment is that the
39. 1:31market—and we will come to the fact that
40. 1:33you can even narrow down these market
41. 1:35participants quite well—reacted more
42. 1:37negatively this time to the fact that
43. 1:38expenditures, and that brings us to the
44. 1:40second point, are also being increased
45. 1:42further.
46. 1:45Yes, you remember, we had a phase where
47. 1:47things couldn't go fast enough.
48. 1:49It didn't matter at all if cash flows
49. 1:51were negative.
50. 1:52It was always said that Capex spending
51. 1:54must not decrease, otherwise the rally
52. 1:56would come to an end. Now the whole
53. 1:59thing has shifted, and that is very
54. 2:00typical for the stock market.
55. 2:02Yes, when the sentiment is like that,
56. 2:04then as long as it continues, everything
57. 2:06is fine. Now it has continued, even more
58. 2:09so. So the quarterly figures were
59. 2:11outstanding.
60. 2:12The growth—you have to consider, 40%
61. 2:15growth at AWS from Amazon, that is
62. 2:17insane when you consider the volumes
63. 2:19involved—these companies, and I want to
64. 2:21say this very clearly at this point,
65. 2:23because it might be forgotten in a week
66. 2:26like this: If they wanted to, they could
67. 2:28have 100 billion in positive cash flow
68. 2:30from one day to the next simply by
69. 2:32reducing these investments.
70. 2:36You could say the market versus the Mag
71. 2:377, because they are saying, no, we are
72. 2:39not reducing our investments here at all
73. 2:41. And you know what? That is more of a
74. 2:43long-term statement, though. I want that
75. 2:45.
76. 2:46These companies didn't get this big by
77. 2:49acting very defensively.
78. 2:52These companies are still fighting as if
79. 2:54it were a matter of being in existence
80. 2:55in 5 years 'time.
81. 2:57And in companies like that—I am
82. 2:59personally invested in Amazon—I want it
83. 3:01to stay that way. I don't want them to
84. 3:02just manage things. Right, second point
85. 3:04. Capex spending shouldn't fall. It
86. 3:06didn't fall; it rose significantly.
87. 3:09That has led to negative cash flows
88. 3:10everywhere, except for Microsoft.
89. 3:13However, the market didn't like that as
90. 3:15much anymore, and the share prices have
91. 3:17already come under pressure. And now we
92. 3:19come to the very important point.
93. 3:22Capex spending, let's take a look.
94. 3:25Capex spending might, however—take a
95. 3:29look at this.
96. 3:32They are falling, and for a different
97. 3:35reason.
98. 3:36Yes, after the Democrats will likely...
99. 3:39and I find this perspective completely
100. 3:41ridiculous, but it naturally looks like
101. 3:43the Democrats, or rather the good
102. 3:45performance of the Democrats in the
103. 3:47midterms, would put the market under
104. 3:49pressure now.
105. 3:51Yes, for one thing, that is factually
106. 3:53correct. Those are the topics behind it
107. 3:55.
108. 3:56Goldman Sachs says: "45%of planned data
109. 3:58centers are being paused."
110. 4:00Goldman Sachs says that...I've seen that
111. 4:02headline everywhere. I even took a look
112. 4:05at X and it just makes you shudder.
113. 4:08It is not always a lot of fun looking at
114. 4:10X. Yes, these headlines everywhere,
115. 4:12saying half of all data centers, uh, you
116. 4:14can forget about those now.
117. 4:16So even...and the authors of the study
118. 4:18don't say that, and the Democrats
119. 4:20themselves don't say that either.
120. 4:22They are saying more regulation, and
121. 4:24that is still a long way from what we
122. 4:27know as regulation here, where we are
123. 4:29sure, uh, that won't work that way.
124. 4:32So please, above all, you should also be
125. 4:34careful politically not to say now that
126. 4:36the Republicans did that much better and
127. 4:38so on.
128. 4:39So, uh, checks and balances, I've
129. 4:41already said it, that is what it's all
130. 4:44about, and I naturally view that as
131. 4:46positive, but you have to take what the
132. 4:49market makes of it seriously. It’s
133. 4:52simply not right to stand there in
134. 4:54hindsight—and that applies to me too,
135. 4:56since I did say, "I'm assuming this
136. 4:59bullish market phase will continue"—to
137. 5:01now stand against it and say, "Yeah, the
138. 5:04market is crazy, what is it doing?" Ah.
139. 5:07That’s not how it works.
140. 5:09I’m currently holding a cash position of
141. 5:13nearly 60%.
142. 5:16And by the way, that’s a question we’ll
143. 5:19answer in the conclusion shortly.
144. 5:21Whether to get out of everything now or
145. 5:23not.
146. 5:24I have already answered that for you at
147. 5:26this point, specifically in the app.
148. 5:28And if you say, "Yeah, but I want that.
149. 5:30"
150. 5:32My promise was that from now on, 100%of
151. 5:35my statements will be in the app, and
152. 5:37accordingly, I uploaded the video this
153. 5:40morning, went into the AI stocks, and
154. 5:43said, "These are the buying zones for me
155. 5:46," because it’s clear: during this
156. 5:48sell-off, you get stopped out.
157. 5:53My cash position is now at about 60%,
158. 5:55higher than ever since I started my
159. 5:57active Lars Erikson portfolio at the
160. 6:00Renditespezialisten, because I am
161. 6:02getting stopped out.
162. 6:05Yes, I didn't sell at the top either,
163. 6:08I'm about 5%down, so at mid-60%, and
164. 6:12accordingly, I accept that the market is
165. 6:15taking a different path.
166. 6:19But now is not the time to say that you
167. 6:21should get out of all positions, at
168. 6:23least not in the AI sector; it’s
169. 6:24completely bombed out. So you don't want
170. 6:27to miss that video. Most of you, a great
171. 6:30many of you, have already signed up.
172. 6:32Please give it a try. This app is free.
173. 6:34This video is free.
174. 6:37These "dust-off" limits where I would
175. 6:39buy, and which AI stocks I find exciting
176. 6:41right now, are free.
177. 6:43You can find the link in the show notes
178. 6:46. Just click on it.
179. 6:48With a fast internet connection, it
180. 6:50takes less than 60 seconds, and then
181. 6:52feel free to watch the video.
182. 6:55So, that brings us to the third point,
183. 6:58because we have always said we would not
184. 7:00ignore it when the market sends sell
185. 7:03signals.
186. 7:05And we can talk for a long time about
187. 7:08how it’s too late to sell.
188. 7:11That is true.
189. 7:12But the Nasdaq 100 also has to get back
190. 7:15into bullish territory first.
191. 7:18And even though I believe—and this is
192. 7:21not a contradiction—even though I
193. 7:23believe that from a fundamental
194. 7:25perspective the sell-off in the AI
195. 7:27sector is simply completely exaggerated
196. 7:29, that does not mean prices have to turn
197. 7:32around immediately. That is very
198. 7:34important.
199. 7:35Once again, I’m not stating my cash
200. 7:38ratio here to suggest you should also
201. 7:40hold 60%cash, but rather to show that
202. 7:42making a forecast is one thing.
203. 7:45But no one knows, and that’s not what
204. 7:47active trading is about, what will
205. 7:48happen tomorrow.
206. 7:50It’s about having attractive setups, and
207. 7:52I don't get those by simply wearing
208. 7:53blinders and saying, I’m sticking with
209. 7:55Intel, I’m sticking with Micron, I’m
210. 7:57sticking with AMD.
211. 7:59They are way too cheap, and Hynix has a
212. 8:02P/E ratio of 3.
213. 8:03Who cares, if that's what the market
214. 8:04makes of it? We’ll take a look at a few
215. 8:06stocks in a moment.
216. 8:08So, this is a major sell signal in the
217. 8:11Nasdaq 100, which would only be
218. 8:13invalidated if the Nasdaq 100 manages to
219. 8:16get back above the 200-day line as
220. 8:18quickly as possible.
221. 8:21That is the mother of all moving
222. 8:23averages; it has to get back above that
223. 8:25, and if that happens very quickly, then
224. 8:27one can expect a V-shaped recovery to
225. 8:29new all-time highs, because such false
226. 8:31signals are super interesting when they
227. 8:34are bought back quickly.
228. 8:36But that is a big if; from here on, we
229. 8:38have to assume that this correction is
230. 8:41not yet over.
231. 8:43What makes it a bit more difficult is
232. 8:45that in the S&P 500, we are right at the
233. 8:47200-day line—yes, you can see it here—
234. 8:50right at the 200-day line; the EMA 200
235. 8:52and SMA 200 are very close to each other
236. 8:54.
237. 8:55Um, it came to a halt there.
238. 8:58So here, there would still be a chance
239. 9:01for an immediate comeback.
240. 9:04You can already see it; as I mentioned,
241. 9:06you already have Friday's trading price
242. 9:08included.
243. 9:09So, that is an important point.
244. 9:12The reasons are also secondary, and I
245. 9:15know that is—well, we are talking about
246. 9:18active trading today.
247. 9:20Yes, the long-term portfolio is, apart
248. 9:22from yesterday.
249. 9:23Um, the day before yesterday there was a
250. 9:25new all-time high in the long-term
251. 9:26portfolio because it is diversified, and
252. 9:28you will have noticed that.
253. 9:30Anyone who wasn't in AI until the day
254. 9:32before yesterday could be totally happy
255. 9:35.
256. 9:36Significant gains, dividend portfolios
257. 9:38reached new highs, and market breadth
258. 9:40was quite positive.
259. 9:43However, what we have seen here now is
260. 9:45something you want an explanation for,
261. 9:47and one exists, but it’s important not
262. 9:49to draw the wrong conclusions from it.
263. 9:52Yes, that’s why everything was wrong.
264. 9:54Yeah, I'm not going to be a bear now,
265. 9:56but I also don't like it when people say
266. 9:59in hindsight, yeah, everyone else, but I
267. 10:02was rightly bullish and um, everything
268. 10:04is wrong, it will repeat itself, it will
269. 10:07.
270. 10:09But still, we're talking about active
271. 10:11trading in long-term trading, a day like
272. 10:13yesterday, I quickly sent out a message
273. 10:15in the app—a message sounds so
274. 10:17highfalutin.
275. 10:19So, I informed everyone in the app that
276. 10:22on days like these, as a short-term
277. 10:24investor, I resist the urge to say, ah,
278. 10:26now I have to get in there and it's
279. 10:28totally oversold and so on.
280. 10:31You can do that in day trading, but more
281. 10:34importantly: whenever I see -5%, -6%, -8
282. 10:37%somewhere, in individual stocks -1%,
283. 10:39but as I said, predominantly in the AI
284. 10:42sector, then I say: Yes, in the
285. 10:44long-term portfolio, if I have stocks
286. 10:47there that are under pressure that day,
287. 10:50like, for example, Prismian—which I
288. 10:53mentioned to you here. It's uh, they
289. 10:55were naturally positioned as an AI trade
290. 10:58, so this cable manufacturer is fully
291. 11:00booked as an AI trade until the end of
292. 11:02'28, but it is, after all, an AI trade.
293. 11:05Then I take that and buy a tranche and
294. 11:07am happy about it. It's as simple as
295. 11:08that. That is what I do on such negative
296. 11:11days. Not so much actively, but rather
297. 11:14in the long-term portfolio. Where can we
298. 11:17just quickly drop in a tranche?
299. 11:19So, this right here is a very essential
300. 11:22reason. Yesterday, there were of course
301. 11:25further sell-offs added to the mix.
302. 11:27The hedge funds.
303. 11:31Tech sell-offs destroy hedge fund gains
304. 11:32and lead to risk reduction and
305. 11:34liquidations, and that within a very
306. 11:35short time.
307. 11:37The hedge funds were max long on AI and
308. 11:39the Magnificent Seven.
309. 11:43There was practically nothing else left
310. 11:46, and especially the long-short equity
311. 11:49hedge funds too—that they then, within—
312. 11:52it’s completely irrelevant whether it’s
313. 11:55irresponsible or not, they obviously
314. 11:58also use massive leverage, and they are
315. 12:01so incredibly challenged in this phase.
316. 12:05They have to sell. That’s no longer a
317. 12:08decision.
318. 12:09You don't sit down in the morning, drink
319. 12:11a coffee, and say, should we maybe get
320. 12:12out of these positions now?
321. 12:14They are forced to because of their
322. 12:16leverage. You can imagine it like a
323. 12:18margin call, which they naturally avoid
324. 12:21. No hedge fund wants to hear that, and
325. 12:23the books aren't usually that leveraged
326. 12:25.
327. 12:26But um, hedge funds have had the worst
328. 12:29half-year in absolute terms, even in
329. 12:31their history, even worse than in the
330. 12:34Corona crash, behind them.
331. 12:37One or two might look at it with
332. 12:39Schadenfreude. But that is the essential
333. 12:42reason. They had to liquidate, liquidate
334. 12:45, liquidate until they couldn't anymore
335. 12:46. And that is the reason why it is
336. 12:48happening so extremely fast. And that is
337. 12:50also the reason why you cannot safely
338. 12:52say it’s turning now. You only know that
339. 12:55in hindsight; that is when we get the
340. 12:57data.
341. 12:59And that is why let me go through a few
342. 13:00stocks quickly.
343. 13:02We are clearly entering oversold
344. 13:04territory here. Semiconductor stocks
345. 13:07have been under massive pressure.
346. 13:09Take Micron, look at their quarterly
347. 13:11results, clearly below the 200-day
348. 13:13moving average.
349. 13:15This will either be a counter-cyclical
350. 13:17buy much later, but I don't want to
351. 13:19discuss that today, or we will see an
352. 13:21immediate rebound.
353. 13:22Intel has practically given back almost
354. 13:25all of its gains from many, many months
355. 13:28and is back at its breakout zone.
356. 13:31I'll keep it short today; these are
357. 13:33buying opportunities for me, but only
358. 13:35after I see the signals—a brutal Marvell
359. 13:38, and for them, it also came on top that
360. 13:40they want to acquire Lumentum, which
361. 13:42naturally, since it’s an all-stock deal
362. 13:44, is also under brutal pressure.
363. 13:47Yes, and one could think when looking at
364. 13:50these companies that the results are
365. 13:53difficult too.
366. 13:54But they are not at all. The results
367. 13:57were incredibly good.
368. 13:59That’s why it will be a buying
369. 14:00opportunity. But this is the famous
370. 14:02falling knife. Those who aren't familiar
371. 14:05with that should wait for an obvious
372. 14:07stabilization.
373. 14:09My aim for my portfolio is, of course,
374. 14:12to get in relatively early, but it has—
375. 14:15and that is clear—caught everyone.
376. 14:18Everyone, not least, of course, also a
377. 14:21...
378. 14:23Where do we have it here?
379. 14:25A Hynix, oops, right? Hynix, no, I
380. 14:27wanted the Korean price, I should have
381. 14:29that live right now.
382. 14:33Yes, also no strong counter-movement yet
383. 14:36. You have to clearly acknowledge that.
384. 14:38Even the sector that held up very well
385. 14:40until recently, which was Cybersecurity
386. 14:42.
387. 14:44Even that has come under pressure. What
388. 14:46I would say at this point, conclusion:
389. 14:48first, the reasons are known. Second,
390. 14:51you don't blindly stand in the way of
391. 14:53sell signals.
392. 14:55Anyone who went into this correction
393. 14:58fully invested and was not a long-term
394. 15:00investor really needs to think about
395. 15:03their risk and money management.
396. 15:07And third, for me, this is no longer the
397. 15:09time to sell.
398. 15:12This is rather the time where I am
399. 15:14waiting for entry signals, but they just
400. 15:16have to appear first.
401. 15:19I can't provide you with anything more
402. 15:20than that today.
403. 15:22At this point, as I said, you'll find my
404. 15:25concrete targets, and because I'm
405. 15:27waiting for today's closing prices—the
406. 15:29video you see now in the app about the
407. 15:32bargain-hunting limits for AI stocks—
408. 15:34that is up-to-date, because I'm
409. 15:36recording it Saturday morning, so I have
410. 15:39Friday's closing prices included.
411. 15:42So feel free to get it. You can find the
412. 15:44link for it here in the show notes.
413. 15:46Absolutely free of charge.
414. 15:48I wish you a wonderful Saturday,
415. 15:50naturally, and a great weekend, and we
416. 15:52will hear each other again on Monday.
417. 15:55Take care until then, and ciao.