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Женский бунт. Почему рожать больше некому — Transcript

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0:02This is a typical Russian family, a
0:04mother and father. For Russia to
0:07survive, they must have at least two
0:09children. But today the fertility rate,
0:12that is, the average number of children
0:14per woman in Russia, is only one. 36.
0:17How can this be? If people in Russia,
0:21according to official surveys, dream,
0:23on average, not even of two, but of
0:25three children. But the statistics are
0:28terrifying. Firstly, women, on average,
0:31want one child less than men. Secondly,
0:33one in six girls between the ages of 18
0:36and 24 doesn't plan to have children at
0:38all. And thirdly, people who don't want
0:40to have children don't do so because
0:42they don't have money, but because they
0:44want to live only for themselves. If
0:46things continue like this, then in 10
0:48years our population will decrease by
0:5010 million, then by another 10 million,
0:52and then by another. That's why the
0:54authorities are sounding the alarm and
0:55demanding that Russian women have
0:57children.
0:59We, uh, have done and will continue to
1:02do everything to support the spirit of
1:04young people, to start families as
1:06early as possible and have children.
1:10And the third person in the country,
1:12Federation Council Chairwoman Valentina
1:14Matviyenko, announced a year ago that
1:15every ministry and agency had created a
1:17demographic special forces unit,
1:19departments responsible for
1:20implementing a family-centric approach
1:22in government policy. So, the state has
1:25decided to intervene in our lives
1:27because it's no longer a matter of your
1:29desires; it's a matter of survival. So
1:33now I'll tell you, do women today truly
1:35want to live for themselves, or do we
1:38simply lack the money to buy a lawn and
1:40get a pet? We'll figure out who's to
1:44blame for our dwindling numbers:
1:46weak-willed men who don't want to take
1:49responsibility, or women corrupted by
1:51social media, whose only concern is
1:54money. And finally, we'll figure out
1:57why maternity capital has stopped
1:58working. And it's not the mother, as
2:00we're used to, who should actually take
2:02maternity leave, but the child's father
2:04. My name is Nikolai Myachin. Let's
2:06figure out why women in Russia have
2:08stopped having children, who's to blame
2:10, and what to do about it. This is our
2:20heroine, a Russian woman. On average,
2:23she's not even 25 or 30. She's 43. And,
2:27of course, she's married. And here's
2:30their first child. He was born when the
2:33mother was 26. And that's how six out
2:36of ten Russian families look like: a
2:38father, a mother, and one child. Only
2:42one in three Russian families can boast
2:45two children, and one in fourteen has
2:47three or more. Yet the authorities
2:50dream of such families with three
2:52children being the majority in Russia.
2:55I've
2:55said many times that a family with
2:57three or more children should become
3:00the norm, a natural way of life in our
3:02country.
3:03Why are the authorities so concerned
3:05about what happens in your bedroom?
3:07Because more than 40%of the Russian
3:09budget's taxes come from our pockets.
3:12When you receive a salary, you pay
3:13personal income tax; when you pay for
3:15groceries at the store, you pay VAT.
3:17And when you fill up with gas, you pay
3:18excise duty, which is already included
3:20in the price of gasoline. The more
3:21people, the more consumers, and the
3:23more taxes the state receives. Every
3:25person in the country is not only a
3:27worker but also a consumer. And the
3:29larger the scale of production, the
3:32cheaper each unit. For example, if just
3:34one car rolls off a factory assembly
3:36line, it will be more expensive than a
3:38space rocket. But if hundreds of
3:39thousands of cars roll off the assembly
3:41line, they will be inexpensive due to
3:43economies of scale. And the factory
3:45itself will provide tens of thousands
3:47of jobs. Russia is also the largest
3:49country in the world, and to prevent
3:51its cities and villages from looking
3:52like this, the population must increase
3:54. But thousands of villages and hamlets
3:56are dying out because young people are
3:58leaving for the big cities. After all,
4:00there's nothing for them to do in these
4:02uninhabited settlements. There simply
4:04aren't enough people for such a vast
4:05territory. And if nothing is done about
4:08this, there's a risk the country will
4:10turn into one huge abandoned place.
4:12That's why the demographic issue has
4:14been raised to the highest level today.
4:16And by the age of 35, according to
4:19Matviyenko, the third-largest person in
4:21power in Russia, Russian women should
4:23have at least one or three children.
4:26Women, in general, aren't opposed to
4:27this. According to polls, they
4:29themselves dream of three children. So
4:31what are they afraid of? Is it that
4:33having a child will make it impossible
4:36to live for oneself? Not quite. When
4:39childless Russians are asked how many
4:41children they plan to have, one in four
4:43says, "Not one." The two main reasons
4:47for this decision are financial and
4:49housing difficulties. Ha, no hedonism.
4:54If it weren't for the lack of housing
4:55and money, these same people would
4:57admit, "We'll have two, three, even
4:58four children." And only one of those
5:01surveyed stuck to their guns. Even
5:04under ideal circumstances, I wouldn't
5:06have any children because I want to
5:08live only for myself. And anyway, I
5:10don't like children. It turns out the
5:12myth of female hedonism is greatly
5:14exaggerated. Such people make up no
5:17more than 4%of all childless people. In
5:20fact, women dream of children, but
5:21they're terrified of financial
5:23difficulties. And these are the two
5:25main reasons: not having children. Not
5:28everyone is willing to live by the
5:29principle: "God gave you a stutterer,
5:30God will provide you with a lawn."
5:33Therefore, Russians want to first build
5:34a career, save money, and, of course,
5:36buy an apartment. The question is,
5:39where are they wrong? The first year of
5:41a child's life alone costs a Russian
5:43family an average of an additional
5:45200,000 rubles. This includes diapers,
5:47nappies, a stroller, a crib, baby food,
5:49and much more. And it seems that if
5:52both parents earn the national average
5:53salary, and by the age of twenty-six
5:55it's 107,000 rubles, then it's not that
5:57much. A mere 8%of family income. But
6:02the average salary is just that,
6:04average, so in some families, this 8%
6:06can easily turn into half of their
6:07income, especially if the young mother
6:09hasn't had much work experience yet and
6:11can't yet count on substantial
6:13maternity benefits. Housing is even
6:16more of a concern. The average price
6:18per square meter in a new Russian
6:19building is currently 215,000 rubles.
6:22And if both parents earn an average
6:24salary, their combined monthly income
6:26will be enough to buy exactly 1 square
6:28meter. This is assuming they don't eat,
6:30buy clothes, or spend money on anything
6:32else. Buying a comfortable home in
6:35Russia today is an impossible dream for
6:37millions of people. Some might say, "
6:40But what about the preferential 6%
6:42mortgage for families with children?"
6:44But, firstly, a family mortgage is only
6:46available after the birth of a child,
6:48meaning that at first, the young family
6:50must huddle in a rented apartment or an
6:51addition to the family home, which the
6:53parents-to-be are unlikely to be able
6:55to afford given current prices.
6:57Secondly, buying an apartment with a
6:59mortgage requires down payment, at
7:01least 20%of the property's value. Yes,
7:04in the regions it can be covered with
7:05maternity capital, but if the apartment
7:07is in Moscow or St. Petersburg, most
7:09will have to save for several years.
7:11Thirdly, the size of a family mortgage
7:12is limited. No more than 6 million
7:14rubles in the regions and 12 million in
7:15Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the
7:17surrounding region. Meanwhile, the
7:19average price of a two-room apartment
7:21in a new building in Moscow in 2026 was
7:2333.6 million rubles, almost three times
7:25the limit. This means that with a
7:28family mortgage you can only buy a
7:29two-room apartment on the existing
7:30market, and it will cost you 15 million
7:32. The monthly payment for such an
7:35apartment is 72,000 rubles. Our mother
7:37is on maternity leave, and our father
7:39earns an average of 100,000 rubles a
7:40month. So, how are we supposed to live
7:43—or, excuse me, survive? True,
7:45officials will ask you: "What are you
7:47all unhappy about? Today is the peak of
7:50state financial assistance for the
7:51birth of children." The 2026 federal
7:54budget has allocated almost 4 trillion
7:56rubles for this. Russia has never spent
7:59so much money on increasing the birth
8:02rate. The expectant mother receives her
8:04first payment before the baby is even
8:05born. This is maternity allowance—a
8:08one-time payment that compensates for
8:09your salary for the first few months
8:11before and after childbirth. If, for
8:13example, a woman earns the average
8:15salary in the country, those same
8:16107,000 rubles, then the benefit amount
8:18will be half a million rubles. The
8:20second payment is a one-time allowance
8:23upon the birth of a child—28,500
8:25rubles. And the third is childcare
8:27allowance until the child is eighteen
8:29months old. You could say that it is
8:32paid when the maternity allowance ends,
8:34but it no longer amounts to the average
8:36salary, but only 40%of it. Well, the
8:39advantage is that not only the mother
8:40but also the father can apply for it.
8:42Therefore, it is more profitable for
8:44those with a higher salary. Fourth,
8:45there is maternity capital. This is a
8:48targeted payment that can be used to
8:49purchase housing, send a child to
8:50kindergarten or university, or
8:52contribute to the mother's pension.
8:54Currently, a family receives 729,000
8:56rubles for the birth of a first child,
8:58and 234,000 for a second child. But for
9:01subsequent children, there is nothing.
9:03And finally, there are various regional
9:05payments, which are a bonus to federal
9:07payments. However, these are usually
9:09only available to low-income families.
9:11For example, there is an additional
9:12monthly benefit of 5,000 rubles for the
9:14purchase of baby products for a child
9:15up to eighteen months in St. Petersburg
9:17. This means that a woman with an
9:20average salary who gives birth to her
9:22first child in 2026 will receive a
9:23one-time cash payment of 530,000 rubles
9:25from the state. 730,000 rubles in
9:29maternity capital, and another 40,000
9:31will be received monthly after
9:33maternity leave ends, until the child
9:36is eighteen months old. That's another
9:39640,000 rubles. Add it all up, and the
9:42total state support will be 1.9 million
9:44rubles. Amazing. And why haven't we
9:47already seen lines at the maternity
9:49hospital for such a sum? The
9:50authorities are sure it's all because
9:52of your flashy reels from the Gram ban.
9:54They're selling you the illusion of a
9:56wrong way to live. And that's why you
9:58don't want to have children. So what,
10:00according to the authorities, is right?
10:02Well, I'll show you now. To understand
10:06economics, it's enough to start with
10:07just one book. Over 10,000 copies sold.
10:10Average rating: 4.9. The book is "
10:12Simple Economics." Search on
10:14marketplaces or by the link in the
10:16description. On February 21, 1925, a
10:25demographic special forces unit led by
10:27Valentina Matviyenko was established in
10:30Russia.
10:31Today, in every ministry or department,
10:34if you call, they'll tell you the name
10:36of the deputy minister responsible for
10:39demographic issues. I mean, as I've
10:41already said, a demographic special
10:43forces unit has been created. While
10:45ordinary special forces protect the
10:47country's security, traditional
10:48demographic values—you'll find what
10:50they are in the presidential decree of
10:522022—are essential. They are life,
10:54dignity, patriotism, strong families,
10:57and, of course, my favorite, the
10:58priority of the spiritual over the
11:00material, whatever that means. The
11:03decree also states that unfriendly
11:04countries are instilling alien ideas in
11:06Russians: selfishness, immorality,
11:08non-traditional relationships, which is
11:10why traditional values are beginning to
11:12be forgotten. And because of you, yes,
11:15because of you, demography in Russia is
11:18going downhill.
11:20Internal values are much stronger and
11:24more important. So what if our peasant
11:28families in Russia lived on the average
11:34European income level? No. And there
11:37were 7-10 people in a family. The
11:40values and worldviews were completely
11:42different. This is what underlies, well
11:45, what should be the basis of
11:47demographic policy.
11:49It turns out that the source of the
11:51demographic problem is in the wrong
11:52values. After all, if parents
11:54prioritize procreation, they will have
11:56a child even without their own
11:58apartment or savings. Well, if that's
12:01the case, then we need to somehow
12:02replace egoism and the desire to live
12:04only for oneself with collectivism and
12:06service to the fatherland, and
12:07immorality with lofty spiritual ideals.
12:11But while the authorities insist that
12:13we are turning away from traditional
12:15values because of the collective West's
12:17failures, I invite you to take a
12:19broader look at how life has changed
12:21over the past 100 years. And four
12:23nesting dolls will help me with this.
12:26The first nesting doll is urbanization,
12:27that is, the migration of people from
12:29the village to the city. If just 100
12:31years ago, there were four villagers
12:33for every city dweller in Russia, today
12:36it's the opposite. There's one villager
12:39for every four city dwellers. But it
12:41was precisely these rural dwellers,
12:43those very same farm families the
12:44president speaks of, who had five to
12:46seven children. They had so many
12:49children not because the villagers were
12:51particularly spiritual, but because, on
12:53average, each family had four hectares
12:55of land. But imagine your dacha garden
12:58being the size of six football fields,
13:00and it had to be cultivated by hand
13:02because only one in five farmsteads had
13:04a draft horse. Harvesting the grain
13:08from such a plot took almost a hundred
13:10hours, and threshing it—beating the
13:12grain from the ears—all 550 hours.
13:16That's why the peasants called the
13:17harvest period "strada," from the word
13:18"suffer." After all, it was
13:21backbreaking labor, 16 hours a day. If
13:23a farmer's family consisted of, say,
13:25just four people, they physically
13:27couldn't cultivate their entire plot.
13:30Today, the world has changed. Well,
13:32show me a city dweller who knows what
13:35hard labor is. And labor productivity
13:37has increased hundreds of times,
13:39meaning that we can now give birth not
13:41to workers, but to children. This is
13:43clearly evident in the statistics. The
13:45average number of children per woman in
13:47a Russian village is now only one more
13:49than the average number of children per
13:51woman in an urban area. So traditional
13:54values have nothing to do with it yet.
13:57Let's move on. The second matryoshka
13:59doll. 100 years ago, every third child
14:01died before reaching one year of age,
14:03and only half of those born survived
14:05past the age of five. To ensure that as
14:07many children as possible survived to
14:09adulthood, women gave birth five to
14:11seven times during their lives. Such is
14:13the harsh mathematics. But today,
14:15thanks to advances in medicine and
14:17medicine, infant mortality has
14:18decreased by a factor of 100. In Russia
14:20, only three out of every thousand
14:21newborns die, meaning that we can now
14:23give birth to fewer children, purely
14:24arithmetically. Again, off the mark.
14:27With traditional values. Oh well. The
14:30third matryoshka doll. If a person
14:33knows that in old age they can rely not
14:35only on their children but also on the
14:37state, then the incentive to raise a
14:39hand that will hand them a glass of
14:41water in old age weakens. Yes, Russian
14:44pensions today are met with bitter
14:46ridicule, but the principle remains the
14:48same. In the African country of Mibia,
14:51for example, 30 years ago, there were
14:52six children per woman. But when in
14:551992 they announced a comprehensive
14:57pension reform that allowed 90%of
14:59citizens to receive benefits three
15:00times higher than the poverty line, a
15:02child ceased to be the sole source of
15:04income in old age. And in just eight
15:07years, the number of children per woman
15:10fell from 6 to 4.2. Well, that's how
15:12pensions have affected demographics.
15:14Ironic. Incidentally, the average
15:16pension in Russia is 25,400 rubles. So
15:19what if you want to receive, say, twice
15:22that amount in old age? I wrote a post
15:24especially for you on my Telegram
15:26channel, "Simple Economy," where I
15:28explain what it takes. Read it via the
15:29link in the description or by clicking
15:31the code on the screen. The channel
15:33already has over 290,000 followers, and
15:35there you'll find even more relevant
15:37content about the Russian economy,
15:39which I personally create. So subscribe
15:42. Finally, the last matryoshka is the
15:44emancipation of women, that is, their
15:47equal rights with men, which is rapidly
15:49gaining momentum in developed countries
15:52. In Europe, for example, for every
15:54five women with a university degree,
15:56there are only four men. But in Russia,
15:5955 out of 100 university graduates are
16:02women—the majority. Women are now
16:05becoming politicians and CEOs of major
16:07corporations. And the role of homemaker
16:10fades with the birth of a child. And
16:12from this, the obvious conclusion: the
16:13more educated a woman is, the fewer
16:15children she has. Not because she
16:17understands that children are a burden,
16:19but simply because she has an
16:20alternative to the role of mother. Take
16:23a look at this graph, compiled by
16:25Oxford scientists based on UN data. The
16:28horizontal axis shows the average
16:29number of years a woman spent in
16:31education, and the vertical axis shows
16:33the birth rate. And in the countries
16:35where women spend the most years in
16:37school—South Korea, Japan, and
16:39Australia—the birth rate is the
16:41lowest. But in Niger, Mali, and the
16:43Democratic Republic of the Congo, where
16:45women study for an average of 3-4 years
16:47, they also have six children. It turns
16:50out that the richer the country, the
16:52fewer people work on Earth. The lower
16:55the infant mortality rate, the more
16:57women get an education, and the more
16:59people place their hopes in the state,
17:00not in their children. Such is the
17:03paradox. The better off we are, the
17:06more we seek happiness not in having a
17:08large family, but in a career, travel,
17:11and self-realization. Our values have
17:14changed not because we have become
17:16culturally corrupted, but because the
17:18world around us has changed. Russia
17:21simply encountered this later than
17:23Western countries. While in Europe, the
17:25decline in birth rates due to progress
17:27began as early as 1870, and this first
17:31demographic transition was complete by
17:331930, in Russia, that is, in the Soviet
17:36Union, it only ended in 1960. But in
17:38countries where people are having a lot
17:40of births today, such as African states
17:43, the first demographic transition has
17:45not yet occurred, despite the advent of
17:48Coca-Cola and iPhones. Many countries
17:51are now facing a second and even third
17:53demographic transition. While the first
17:56transition was associated with
17:58declining mortality and birth rates,
18:00the second is associated with a change
18:01in those very same values and family
18:03norms. And the third is associated with
18:06mass migration, when the native
18:08population dies out due to declining
18:09birth rates and is replaced by migrants
18:11. Where is Russia? But despite
18:15scientists 'assurances that our country
18:16has already undergone the first
18:18demographic transition, this is not
18:19entirely true, as certain regions
18:21continue to live as before, and
18:22therefore their birth rates are
18:23perfectly normal. Thus, the number of
18:26children per woman in the Chechen
18:28Republic even today stands at 2.7, and
18:30in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug,
18:322.6. But most of Russia is truly
18:35approaching a second demographic
18:37transition, which threatens to
18:38transform those very values. That's why
18:42the authorities are sounding the alarm,
18:43because otherwise, by the end of the
18:4521st century, the Russian population
18:46will be 20, 20 million fewer than it is
18:48now. The first demographic transition
18:51cannot be reversed. To do so, we would
18:53have to abandon healthcare, education,
18:54and other benefits of progress and
18:56return to the drudgery of peasant labor
18:58. But Russia is currently disavowing
19:00the second and third transitions,
19:02selling you the image that the
19:04spiritual is superior to the material.
19:07But we still learn about the pyramid of
19:09needs in school. On the first level is
19:12physiology: food, water, sleep. On the
19:14second, the need for security and a
19:16roof over our heads. And until these
19:19two material levels are reached, it's
19:21too early to talk about any kind of
19:23spirituality. Of course, the average
19:27Russian today lives far better than a
19:29peasant who huddled in a cramped hut
19:31and worked 14 hours a day in the fields
19:33. But we're not comparing ourselves to
19:36our great-great-grandfathers from the
19:38last century, but to our neighbors. One
19:40bought a new car, another moved from a
19:42one-room apartment to a three-room
19:43apartment. Can anyone blame us for
19:46wanting a better life and therefore
19:48delaying having children? The problem
19:51isn't that Russians have all become
19:53selfish, but that today's needs have
19:54become more complex, as they, too, have
19:56changed over the past 100 years.
19:58Therefore, appealing to spirituality is
20:00pointless until the material foundation
20:02is laid. This is precisely what China,
20:04for example, is doing today, pursuing a
20:06birthrate. Since July 28, 2025, Chinese
20:09parents have been receiving monthly
20:11benefits. This is approximately 41,500
20:14rubles, or 3,600 yuan. This benefit is
20:17paid for each child under three years
20:18old. The state covers all pregnancy and
20:20childbirth expenses, including medical
20:22care and medications. To avoid having
20:25to cram themselves into a small
20:26apartment, parents receive housing
20:28certificates for home purchases, which
20:30can reach up to $ 50,000 for families
20:31with three children. You'll be
20:34surprised, but China, like Russia, has
20:36fallen into a demographic black hole.
20:39Although 1.4 billion people live there
20:42today, by next year, if nothing is done
20:44, the country's population will more
20:46than halve. Just think about those
20:49numbers. -700 million in 70 years. It's
20:53ironic, but just half a century ago, in
20:551979, the authorities feared something
20:57entirely different: that there would be
20:58too many Chinese and the economy simply
21:00wouldn't be able to cope. So, China
21:02instituted a one-family, one-child
21:05policy. Authorities fined citizens for
21:08having more than one child, and even
21:09forced women to have abortions and
21:11sterilizations. Over the past three
21:13decades, having one child per family
21:15has become the new norm, and China
21:16itself has transformed from a poor
21:17agricultural country into the world's
21:19most technologically advanced factory.
21:21And when, in 2015, the Chinese
21:23government allowed three children, the
21:26number of children per woman increased,
21:28but only by 0.2, and today stands at
21:31around one. So, in 2024, China, too,
21:34rightly decided to promote the
21:36traditional virtues of the Chinese
21:39nation—the value of procreation—
21:41along with material incentives, to
21:43prevent the second demographic
21:45transition from devastating its
21:47demographics. But what if I told you
21:50that the problem of low birth rates
21:52isn't just about wallets and values? If
21:54only it were that simple, to understand
21:57the depth of this rabbit hole, we need
22:00to look at this unjust world through
22:03the eyes of women. When a new family
22:12begins in Russia, they say about the
22:14woman: "She got married." Literally,
22:16she got married. A woman ends up with
22:18her husband and usually takes his last
22:20name. Men have dominated for almost all
22:21of history. They ruled countries, made
22:23scientific discoveries, and waged war.
22:26And the role of women, with rare
22:27exceptions, was limited to bearing and
22:29raising children. Today, we believe
22:31that men and women are equal in
22:33everything. But is this really true?
22:36Here's a study by Rosstat on the
22:37average salaries of men and women. The
22:39findings are disappointing. Women are
22:42typically paid a third less than men.
22:44Why is this injustice so injustice so
22:45prevalent? The first reason: in Russia,
22:48there are purely male and purely female
22:50professions. These are professions
22:51where four out of five workers are of
22:53the same sex. For example, male
22:54professions include drivers, electrical
22:56engineers, and metallurgists, while
22:57female professions include
22:58administrators, pharmacists, and
23:00salespeople. Salaries in male
23:01professions are typically higher than
23:02in female ones. For example, the
23:04average income of a healthcare worker
23:06in 2025 was 82,000 rubles, while that
23:08of an administrator was 71,500. These
23:11are traditionally female professions.
23:13Meanwhile, salaries in male-dominated
23:16professions such as mining are 167,000,
23:20metallurgy 114,000, and construction
23:23101,000. The second factor is the
23:25number of working hours. Men, on
23:28average, work more and are able to
23:30combine several jobs or work overtime
23:32because they are, on average, more
23:34inclined to achieve and earn money.
23:38Another reason is that during this time
23:39, the woman usually shoulders the
23:41entire household responsibilities. A
23:43third reason, closely related to the
23:45first and second, is that women advance
23:47more slowly in their careers than men
23:49and are less likely to reach the
23:51highest-paying positions. Because men
23:54devote more time to work, they are
23:57promoted faster. And every maternity
24:00leave is a 13-year loss in career,
24:02during which male peers gain a
24:03significant head start in career
24:05advancement. The most ironic thing is
24:08that the same factor affects men's and
24:10women's incomes differently. For
24:12example, a woman with children
24:13typically earns less. For her, this is
24:15a kind of motherhood penalty, but for a
24:17man with children, it's even higher, by
24:19a full 25%. For him, it's not a penalty
24:21, but rather a fatherhood bonus. This
24:23can be explained by the fact that a
24:25working mother takes sick leave and
24:26time off more often, and work isn't a
24:28priority for her. For the father, on
24:30the contrary, he is the one who has to
24:31support the family, which means he will
24:33take work much more seriously. It turns
24:35out that although formally there is no
24:37gender inequality in Russia, it
24:39develops over time. Every Russian woman
24:43has two options. The first is to build
24:45a career and earn money, that is, to
24:47realize one's potential in one's
24:49profession and become financially
24:50independent. But then she will have no
24:53time left for having children. Or very
24:56little. The second option is to devote
24:58herself to family and children. But
25:00then the woman becomes completely
25:01financially dependent on her husband,
25:03who will have to work for three:
25:05himself, his wife, and their child.
25:07Thirty years ago, this path was a clear
25:09role model, and a woman was considered
25:11successful if she married well. Today,
25:14success in the progressive world means
25:16a good job and financial freedom. And I
25:18didn't invent this. This is what
25:19Russians think when they ask what they
25:22would choose for their daughter: a good
25:25job or a good husband. Wanting the best
25:28for your child is perfectly natural,
25:30which is why we teach them how to
25:31achieve success. But some things are
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25:57ancestry with automatic family tracing.
26:00We took the test as a family because it
26:02was important for us to assess our risk
26:04of disease, but fortunately, nothing
26:06serious was found. However, there are
26:08some things that need to be monitored
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26:11to have an increased risk of high blood
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26:47code: Economy 4. True, the authorities
26:52don't agree with putting a union
26:54between these two paths, or they insist
26:56that a woman can do it all: study, work
26:58, and give birth. But she's not a woman
27:01, she's a Swiss Army knife. And our
27:04task is to ensure that young people
27:05understand that they don't have to
27:07choose one over the other, that they
27:09can successfully combine parenting with
27:14studying or starting a career. Yes, it
27:17may not be easy, but it's still
27:20possible, and it should be combined
27:23with raising a child.
27:26But what kind of life will it be if a
27:27woman decides to do it all at once:
27:29raise a child and succeed in her career
27:31? Well, first of all, she'll have not
27:33one, but two jobs. The first is at the
27:35office, the second is at home. There's
27:37a common stereotype: while she's
27:39checking homework, cooking dinner, and
27:41tidying up the house, her husband sits
27:42and plays tanks. After all, he's tired
27:46after work. But there's some truth to
27:48this. Russian men spend only 6%of their
27:50time on household chores, such as
27:52washing dishes and taking out the trash
27:54. Even showering and shaving take twice
27:57as long. At the same time, the role of
28:00the man in the family has changed. He's
28:02no longer the sole breadwinner and
28:03provider on whom the whole family
28:04depends. After all, the woman also
28:06works. This means the man should share
28:08the household chores. And feeling this
28:11support, the woman will agree to have a
28:13child. That's a fact. In countries
28:15where women spend less time on
28:16household chores, birth rates are
28:17higher than in those where they are
28:19solely responsible for housework. The
28:21connection is weak, but it exists. Just
28:24look at how Swedish and Norwegian men
28:26spend almost as much time on housework
28:28as women. But in South Korea, they've
28:31shifted all the burden onto the fair
28:32sex, and the birth rate there is more
28:34than half as low. Secondly, there's
28:36that maternity penalty. In Russia,
28:38employers are wary of hiring young
28:40women. They'll soon go on maternity
28:42leave. They'll have to find a
28:44replacement, and then constantly pay
28:46for sick leave due to the child's snot.
28:49More than half of women in surveys say
28:51they're asked during job interviews, "
28:53When are you planning to have the baby?
28:55" The Norwegian authorities have found
28:58an unusual solution to this problem.
28:59Both mother and father can take
29:01parental leave. And for the employer,
29:04it no longer matters so much who comes
29:06to the interview, because he
29:07understands that any employee,
29:08regardless of gender, can take
29:10maternity leave, which means there is
29:11no point in refusing to hire women. You
29:14might say, "But in Russia, a father can
29:16also take paternity leave. But he can
29:20go to work, and the family will receive
29:22two sources of income: his salary and
29:25child care benefits. But the difference
29:28with Norway is that if a father refuses
29:29paternity leave, the family will not
29:31receive any payments. You either stay
29:33with the child or work. Therefore, 97
29:35out of 100 Norwegians who can take it
29:36go on paternity leave, and the
29:38remaining three are those who, due to
29:39the nature of their work, cannot leave
29:41it for such a long time. While the
29:43father sits at home with the child, the
29:45Norwegian woman returns to work. And
29:46since both men and women go on
29:48maternity leave, there is no career gap
29:50. Everyone is on an equal footing.
29:51Unfortunately, Russian women can only
29:53dream of this. After all, while you sit
29:55with a child for a year and a half,
29:57work progress passes you by. Thirdly,
30:00the loss of financial independence.
30:03Let's not even take any A strong and
30:04independent woman from a banned social
30:06network, but an ordinary Russian woman
30:08who earned her own money and managed
30:10her own money during her marriage. But
30:13then they had a child, and now she has
30:15to account for all her expenses to her
30:17husband, because he's the one bringing
30:18in the money. To prevent this from
30:22happening, an experiment has been
30:24underway in the Nizhny Novgorod region
30:26since July 1, 2025. There, a woman
30:28receives a monthly salary simply for
30:30being a mother. For the first child,
30:32she receives 10,000 rubles per month
30:34for the first three years, and for the
30:36second, 22,000, and starting with the
30:38third, 30,000. Moreover, this salary is
30:41available to any family, not just
30:42low-income ones, as is usually the case
30:44. And what do you think? Before the
30:46experiment, the Nizhny Novgorod region
30:48lagged behind neighboring regions in
30:49terms of birth rate, but in just six
30:51months, it has overtaken them. If not
30:53just one region, but all of Russia had
30:55shown such birth rate dynamics, then in
30:572025, the country would have had
30:59134,000 more children. So, it turns out
31:02that money, not values, decides whether
31:04women will have children or not. But
31:06the whole case is exposed. Give me
31:08money, you will have children. But, as
31:10usual, the mercenary West ruined
31:12everything. In 2022, the amount of
31:14family benefits in the European Union,
31:17that is, the sum of all payments for
31:19the birth of an average of one child
31:21per year, was 830 euros. At the same
31:24time, in Bulgaria, where the benefit is
31:26the smallest, 211 euros, the birth rate
31:28per woman is 1.7, and in generous
31:29Luxembourg, where a parent receives a
31:31whopping 3,800 euros, the birth rate is
31:33only 1.25. It turns out that for
31:37Europeans, it's the opposite. The more
31:39a parent receives for a child, the
31:40lower the birth rate. And it turns out
31:43that for wealthy Europeans, money is
31:45not the most important thing. And the
31:47authorities know this. Here's what Nina
31:50Ostanina, Chair of the State Duma
31:51Committee on Family Protection and
31:52Fatherhood, Motherhood and Childhood,
31:54says.
31:56If you continue to implement social
31:58measures like this, support, which is a
32:00system of measures to lift people out
32:02of poverty, if we consider all this as
32:05demographic measures, then we will
32:07never solve the demographic issue.
32:10Translated from officialdom, she says
32:12that money helps only the most needy to
32:14have a child. And when the standard of
32:18living rises, then money not only stops
32:20working, it even begins to harm.
32:22Social policy to lift people out of
32:24poverty and work must provide targeted
32:26benefits. Indeed, this should be done,
32:29but not to the point where families are
32:31deliberately divorcing in order to fall
32:33into the low-income category, receiving
32:35these benefits. We will not solve a
32:38single problem by this, unless we
32:40worsen our statistics.
32:41On the one hand, in Russia, 97%of
32:43people earn less than 200,000 rubles
32:46per person per month. For a large city,
32:48this is not some kind of luxury, it is
32:50rather a comfortable life. And for this
32:52level of income, even a small support
32:54from the state already increases the
32:56desire to have children. Background.
32:57Let me remind you of the experiment in
32:59the Nizhny Novgorod region. But on the
33:01other hand, there are terrible
33:03statistics. In 2025, for every 10 In
33:05Russia, there were eight divorces per
33:07marriage, many of which were sham. This
33:09is when a husband and wife are divorced
33:11on paper, but in reality, they continue
33:12to live together and raise their
33:14children. This is indirectly confirmed
33:16by the fact that the highest number of
33:18divorces is recorded in the regions of
33:20the federation with the highest number
33:21of large families, such as the Caucasus
33:23. In simple terms, this means, for
33:26example, that a family was receiving
33:27benefits and then the husband got a
33:28promotion at work. This seems like
33:31great news, but if the husband agrees,
33:33the family will no longer be considered
33:35needy and they won't receive benefits.
33:38But if you get a successful divorce,
33:40you can have your cake and eat it too,
33:42meaning you get a promotion, and keep
33:44your benefits. After all, with a
33:46successful divorce, the husband, with
33:48his high salary, effectively leaves the
33:50family, and now they easily meet the
33:52need threshold. On January 1, 2025, the
33:55state fee for divorce was raised from
33:58650 to 5,000 rubles. Some believe this
34:02was done precisely to reduce the number
34:04of sham divorces. But do you think
34:06there are fewer of them? Of course, it
34:09didn't work. If, for example, the fee
34:11were raised to 100,000 rubles, I'm
34:13afraid Russians would simply stop
34:14getting married. It turns out that
34:17money works as an incentive to have
34:19children only for the poor. Well, this
34:21is clearly evident from the results of
34:23the VCM study. Those who assess their
34:25standard of living as poor or very poor
34:27have the highest gap between the
34:28desired and actual number of children.
34:31But those who live well have almost as
34:33many children as they want. Then let's
34:36give the poor money, and they will
34:38increase the birth rate. No problem. In
34:4125, only 7%of Russians were poor in
34:43Russia. This is the lowest in recent
34:45memory. Moreover, why pay for poverty?
34:49Better tell me, why did they transfer
34:50the main amount of maternity capital
34:52from the second child to the first?
34:54Today, a family receives 729,000 for
34:57the birth of their first child, and
34:59only 234,000 for the second. Payments
35:02for the third and each subsequent child
35:04are not at all It's supposed to be. At
35:05the same time, the first child in a
35:08family is usually born without state
35:10support, out of desire, necessity, or,
35:13let's be honest, by chance. And this is
35:15important, because when the bulk of
35:17maternity capital was transferred from
35:19the second child to the first in 2020,
35:20the birth rate of second children in
35:22Russian families fell by 30%. The idea
35:25was a good one. To make the birth of a
35:27first child easier for a young family.
35:30And thanks to maternity capital, which
35:31was introduced in Russia in 2007,
35:33almost 3 million additional children
35:35were born. But these weren't firstborns
35:37, but second or third children in the
35:40family. The problem seems insoluble.
35:42People don't want to have children,
35:44there's no money, and where it's
35:45provided, it doesn't help. So what to
35:47do then? I could offer you these
35:50options: increase maternity capital,
35:51pay parental salaries throughout Russia
35:53. But all this is pure populism. You
35:56can see for yourself that even handing
35:58out money doesn't radically increase
36:00the demographics. Nevertheless, the
36:02propaganda of traditional values
36:03Without a big, tasty carrot, it simply
36:05doesn't work. A woman, on whom the
36:07country's future depends, is already
36:09conditioned from the very beginning to
36:10embrace the image of a patriarchal
36:12family, where the man is the primary
36:13breadwinner, destined to rise through
36:15the ranks and bring in money for the
36:16family, where he should be pampered and
36:18wooed in return. Compare this to the
36:20content from pretograms, where women
36:22are told," You don't owe anyone
36:23anything. You should express yourself,
36:26earn money, travel, live your best life
36:29. You're free, woman, a woman deserves
36:31a home. "Let's be honest, if you were a
36:33woman, which image would you choose?
36:36Tonu. The most ironic thing about all
36:38this is that even if the birth rate in
36:40Russia rises—for example, if families
36:42were having not one child per family,
36:44but two—there will still be fewer and
36:46fewer children being born. This is
36:48because the number of women of
36:50childbearing age in the country is
36:52steadily declining, because, alas, we
36:54are aging. It turns out that the
36:57demographic problem has one very
36:59unpleasant, but inevitable, solution.
37:10This is what families look like in
37:11Central Asian countries. In Uzbekistan,
37:13there are three children per woman. In
37:15Tajikistan, there are three. In
37:17Kyrgyzstan, there are 2.6. Today, there
37:19are 6.1 million emigrants in Russia.
37:21See the connection? If the state cares
37:23so much about demographics, why doesn't
37:25it fill this void with migrants? But
37:27that won't happen. On October 15, 2020,
37:30the concept of state migration policy
37:32through 2030 was released. And there it
37:34is stated in black and white:" The
37:36source of population replenishment is
37:39natural reproduction. The authorities
37:41do not need the children of migrants,
37:42but the children of Russians, so as not
37:44to erode those very traditional values.
37:46Every newcomer carries a piece of a
37:48foreign culture and religion, speaks a
37:51different language. And it can take
37:53years to assimilate, that is, to accept
37:55Russian culture and way of life. And it
37:58is not a fact that a person will
38:00exchange his native identity for a
38:02Russian one. As an example, the
38:03president cites Europe, which opened
38:05its door to migrants. And today, every
38:07tenth person there is a newcomer. The
38:11Europe we loved so much is no more. As
38:15a rule, first-wave migrants, that is,
38:17those who were born in another country
38:18and then moved to Russia, really do
38:20retain more in common with their
38:22homeland. And only their children adapt
38:24to life in Russia. But they often live
38:26within their diasporas. Both the
38:28Russians themselves and the authorities
38:30themselves see newcomers rather as
38:31threat. So there's no point in talking
38:33about replacing Russians with migrants.
38:36There are currently a whopping 49
38:38Russian children for every migrant
38:40child. And the birth of a child in
38:43Russia doesn't necessarily mean the
38:45person will receive Russian citizenship
38:47. At least one parent must be a Russian
38:51citizen. You're
38:53not even a citizen.
38:56Don't forget that for the state, a
38:58child is a long-term investment. First,
39:01they need to be provided with
39:02kindergarten and school, and given a
39:03specialized vocational or higher
39:05education. Only then, when they become
39:07employees, will they repay these funds
39:09through taxes and insurance premiums.
39:12But if a migrant family comes to Russia
39:14where only one adult works—say, the
39:16father, while the mother is a homemaker
39:19and raising three minor children—then
39:21the equation no longer works. Russia
39:24spends more on such a family than it
39:26receives. Therefore, on January 1, 2027
39:29, a law will come into effect requiring
39:32immigrants to earn at least one
39:33subsistence minimum for each family
39:36member. For example, if a migrant If
39:39someone decides to earn some extra
39:41money in Moscow and brings his wife and
39:42three children with him, his salary
39:44must be at least five Moscow
39:45subsistence minimums per capita. Today,
39:48that minimum is 25,342 rubles. This
39:51means that a newcomer must immediately
39:53find a job with an official salary of
39:55at least 127,000 rubles per month. Or
39:57leave his family behind, which means a
39:59suitcase, a train station, and the rest
40:01is history. So, the authorities are
40:03promoting the formula: come, work,
40:04leave. In their opinion, a migrant's
40:07family should wait for him in his home
40:08country, not squander budget money in
40:10hospitals, kindergartens, and schools.
40:12It looks like Russia is some kind of
40:14xenophobic country. But if you put
40:17aside moral questions and open the text
40:19of that same concept of migration
40:21policy, it becomes clear that its main
40:23principle is the priority of the
40:25interests of Russians over newcomers.
40:28Well, at least this has finally been
40:30recorded on paper, because who would
40:32like it if all the benefits go to the
40:33wrong people? Those who have lived in
40:36the country since birth, and those who
40:38are newcomers. However, refusing
40:39migrants is also impossible. To stop
40:41the population from declining, Russia
40:42needs to accept at least half a million
40:44people a year. And now this number is
40:46half that. For example, in 2023,
40:48Rosstat counted only 200,000 newcomers.
40:51This means that no migrants will
40:53populate Russia. And the country won't
40:55be able to improve its demographics
40:57with their help. Therefore, you and I
40:59are facing a future that science
41:01fiction writers have described in their
41:03books, but you probably won't like it.
41:12The average age of a Russian woman is
41:1443, and that of a Russian man is 38.
41:16And the longer we go, the older we will
41:18become. Today, two-thirds of Russia's
41:21population are between 15 and 64. At
41:23the same time, the proportion of
41:25elderly people, that is, over 65, and
41:27children aged 0 to 14, is the same. In
41:3020 years, due to the declining birth
41:32rate, there will be half as many
41:33children as elderly people. One in four
41:36Russians will be over 65. years. This
41:39will completely break the pension
41:41system. But look, the average pension
41:44today is 25,400 rubles. To pay even
41:47this small amount, there are almost two
41:49working people for every pensioner. But
41:52in 20 years, there will be only one and
41:54a half people for every pensioner. This
41:56means that in order to maintain the
41:58already low pension, the government
42:00will have to resort to unpopular
42:01measures. First, they will have to
42:03continue raising taxes. Each subsequent
42:05generation will give the state more and
42:07more money from their income because
42:09the number of pensioners will grow.
42:11Second, they will have to raise the
42:13retirement age, because the later you
42:15retire, the longer you will work, which
42:16means supporting current pensioners and
42:18later becoming a burden on the budget.
42:21If previously the average man in
42:23developed countries received a pension
42:25for 18.5 years, today it is already a
42:27full 23 years, simply because he lives
42:29longer. These extra 4.2 years hit the
42:31country's budget hard. That's why the
42:33authorities say: "Guys, come on...""You
42:36understand that you'll have to work
42:38more now." In Russia, pensions are
42:41broken, because a man can retire at 65,
42:44and a woman at 60. But men live on
42:46average only to 69, and women to 79. So
42:49it turns out that a retiree man will
42:52receive a pension for only 4 years, and
42:55a woman 19 years. If you're not ready
42:59for this and don't want to go to work
43:01and work 5-6 days a week in 20-30 years
43:03, just like now, then subscribe to
43:04Simple Finance, where I explain how to
43:06sooner or later achieve passive income
43:08at your level. In this course, I
43:10explain what to do if you have no
43:12savings and never have enough money,
43:14and in this one, where to invest so
43:16that it grows for you personally and
43:18you feel comfortable. Link in the
43:20description. By the way, even here the
43:21authorities are trying to force women
43:23to have children. For three children, a
43:25mother will be able to retire not at 60
43:27, but at 57. Four children-4 years, but
43:29five or more children is already 10
43:31years. If we use the average pension of
43:3425,000 rubles, then an additional 10
43:36years for five children will bring such
43:38a pensioner 3 million rubles. In short,
43:41a world of eternal youth awaits us,
43:42only it will not be inhabited by
43:44eternally young people, but by old
43:46people and predominantly single women.
43:48The entire developed world is facing
43:50similar problems today. For example, in
43:53China, by 2070, half the population
43:56will be over 60. Just imagine, every
43:58second person in the country is elderly
44:00. What's good about this? It means that
44:04Russia can copy successful ideas. For
44:08example, on December 11, 2025, in the
44:10Red Room of the House of Lords in
44:12Westminster Palace in London, British
44:13officials gathered and drew conclusions
44:15about their demographics that are
44:17surprisingly similar to ours. In total,
44:20the British lords identified three
44:22scenarios. The first is to force women
44:24to have more children. But they don't
44:26know how to achieve this. The only
44:27developed country that has succeeded in
44:29this is Israel. But There are reasons
44:31there, which I discussed in a separate
44:33video. They have their own specifics.
44:37We can't do it because we need money,
44:38and we don't have it, but we're holding
44:40on. The second scenario is to give up
44:43and accept that the native population
44:45will die out and age. Well, and simply
44:47adapt to this, replace people with
44:49robots, reform the pension system and
44:50the labor market. But all this also
44:53requires money, and also technology,
44:54which is in short supply today. Finally
44:56, the third scenario, which Europe is
44:58pursuing, is attracting migrants.
44:59Russia, as we have already established,
45:01also rejects this scenario, but the
45:03Lords themselves say that this is not a
45:04solution, but only a way to delay the
45:06inevitable. And at this rate, by 2050,
45:08every third person in the UK will be an
45:10influx of migrants. So, the big
45:12question is: will Britain remain
45:14Britain? What remains? Well, you can't
45:17envy the state. Money is needed
45:19everywhere at once: in defense,
45:21industry, artificial intelligence. And
45:23as we have already seen, what Russia
45:25and other countries are offering today
45:27is not enough to ensure that women They
45:29rushed to have children. It's
45:31impossible to reverse the trend toward
45:33extinction simply by increasing
45:35maternity capital, because everything
45:37is intertwined here: culture, tradition
45:39, propaganda, and, of course, economics
45:41. You can't just say, "Have children,"
45:43give them money, and people will go
45:45have children. It doesn't work that way
45:47. For this to happen, demography must
45:49become not just a topic for
45:50conversation from high-level platforms,
45:52but the main priority of policy,
45:53including budgetary policy. But for now
45:55, priorities are different. Therefore,
45:58the state can only hope that people
46:01themselves truly want to have children.
46:04The decision to have a child is, of
46:06course, a private, personal matter for
46:08each person, each family.
46:10Fortunately, leaving offspring is a
46:12basic human need. But remember the
46:14study at the Center for Public Health
46:16at the beginning of the video, where
46:17only one in twenty people, even under
46:19ideal conditions, would refuse a child.
46:21But 23 people clearly said, "Wrap it up
46:23." Yes, when you have children, your
46:25life is no longer your own. Children
46:27need to be fed, clothed, raised, and
46:29you can no longer come home in the
46:30evening as before. After work, just
46:32turn on your favorite TV show,
46:33disconnecting from everything. They'll
46:35inevitably come running to you and say,
46:37"I'm hungry, I'm thirsty, I want to
46:38play." And you, sighing, put your
46:40desires aside. But that's the true joy
46:43of parenthood, one that can't be
46:45described in words. That's why people
46:47will still have children, because the
46:49need to pass on our genes is ingrained
46:51in us by nature itself. Yes, there will
46:54be fewer of us Russians, and indeed all
46:56people on the planet, but we certainly
46:58won't die out due to declining birth
47:00rates. Therefore, those
47:02post-apocalyptic movie scenes of a
47:04handful of people walking through a
47:07deserted, dead city will probably
47:09remain the fantasy of their creators.
47:12That's how things are, friends. What do
47:14you think about demographics in Russia?
47:16How bad or good do you think things are
47:19, and what awaits us in the future?
47:21Share your opinion in the comments. And
47:24if you're already experiencing the
47:25demographic problem, then join our
47:27Tinder for simple finances, where you
47:29can find friends in your city.
47:31Colleagues to share experiences with
47:33business partners, even your
47:35significant other or friend. Link in
47:36the description. That's all. This was
47:39Nikolai Myachin. See you there.

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