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A Long Ramble About Bull Market Ranging for Bitcoin, Altcoin Market and XRP Price Chart — Transcript

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0:02[music]
0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
0:24at the Bitcoin price chart along with
0:25the total market cap of the
0:27cryptocurrency market as prices remained
0:29stable throughout the weekend after
0:31going through that $1 billion
0:33liquidation we saw there back on October
0:358th. The market got pretty panicked over
0:37there on social media. We saw calls for
0:40October 10th, the anniversary of the
0:42major liquidation that happened last
0:44year back in 2025 where we liquidated 20
0:47billion dollars from the market in one
0:49day, but prices were able to remain
0:51stable throughout the weekend. Nothing
0:52new or exciting happening in the market
0:55and just kind of being stable after all
0:56the action that took place. Bitcoin hit
0:58as low as $80,400 there last Thursday.
1:01It sits at $82,900 as I'm recording. So,
1:05not a whole lot has changed over the
1:07last several days since we got that
1:08liquidation. And typically liquidations
1:10are markers of where prices tend to kind
1:13of settle for a little while to digest
1:15and figure out where the next move is
1:17going to go. Without trying to rehash
1:18too many things that we've talked about
1:20in videos over the last several weeks,
1:22my thoughts are clearly that we are
1:24beyond the bottom of the bare market.
1:26But every time we see a correction,
1:28we're going to see calls for it to
1:30return because that's typically what
1:31crowd sentiment does in the wall of
1:34worry and in the recovery. And while
1:36we're really just in a lot of chop and a
1:38lot of ranging and ranging is very
1:40difficult to be able to predict the
1:42exact price behavior, I've outlined this
1:45model multiple times here on the
1:47channel. And really, it's played out
1:48very well over the last 20 months or 1
1:51year and 8 months that we've just kind
1:53of been tracking this stuff ever since
1:55we really broke down back here in
1:56February of 2025. ABCD went on to build
2:00our WOFF distribution top, fall back to
2:03the 100week moving average and then
2:04capitulated the market and then that
2:06last liquidation that we typically see
2:08for a crashing structure recovery and
2:11well, it just seems appropriate that
2:12we're just kind of working out the
2:14beginning phases of a new range. I think
2:16this has been kind of a difficult topic
2:18for me to talk about here on the channel
2:20because it's really been kind of easy to
2:23talk about different things as we've
2:25worked our way around and I'll kind of
2:26explain that that when we were working
2:28our way back up if you recall we really
2:30expected an ABC in here. You can go back
2:32and look at all the thumbnails of the
2:34videos back in May, June, and July of
2:362025 expecting this is just an ABC then
2:39we're going to push for our top. Then
2:40all the discussions around what type of
2:42topping structure are we going to make
2:43throughout in here and then right just
2:45flipping into bare mode then even when
2:47we fell down to that 100week moving
2:49average still like the easy topic to
2:51talk about was saying hey look we
2:53haven't capitulated yet. I would say
2:55this is probably a difficult phase to
2:56kind of talk about because you're just
2:58kind of saying, "Hey, look, we're in the
2:59early phases of bottoming and
3:01accumulation like for XRP. Like, hey,
3:03look, okay, now we've seen our
3:05capitulation. Uh, look at the path we
3:07have ahead of us. A lot of chop, a lot
3:08of uncertainty on what structures will
3:11build in throughout here to get through
3:12this chop." So, I'd say there's probably
3:14some difficulty throughout here.
3:16However, then we're talking about, hey,
3:17look, one last liquidation, it could set
3:19a new low, it could not set a new low.
3:22And then of course once we get that it's
3:23like hey look this is the full-blown
3:24reversal. This is where people are going
3:26to get themselves wrongfooted. This is
3:27where the crowd gets off sides 40 to
3:2950k. You're crazy it's not going to
3:31happen. Boom. We push our way back up.
3:32And so what we're always kind of doing
3:34is we're always trying to kind of like
3:35look forward a little bit right whether
3:36the whether we're in the ABC saying hey
3:39we're going to push up and then we're
3:40going to try to figure out how to build
3:41a top and we're all talking about how is
3:43the top going to build or when we pull
3:44back down here it's like hey look the
3:46capitulation hasn't come like we're
3:47trying to forward look we still need the
3:49capitulation. We do the capitulation
3:51phase and it's like we're forward
3:52looking. Okay, now we enter into the
3:53accumulation phase. What does the
3:55accumulation look like in here? And then
3:57we ricochet out of here and we move on.
3:59And you say, okay, well, how do you
4:00forward look from here? The overwhelming
4:02obvious thing of forward looking is to
4:04say, well, if you think that's the
4:06bottom, then the only obvious way to
4:08look forward is to say we're going to
4:10new highs. It's time to rock and roll,
4:12right? And while I do think that will
4:14eventually come for the cryptocurrency
4:16market, it's hard for me to like create
4:18lots of hype videos pushing that that
4:20that's coming, you're not ready, people
4:22are going to get left behind because
4:24there's typically some phases that have
4:26to happen before we can get there. And
4:28trying to, you know, spin that and make
4:30that sound sexy and exciting, uh, when
4:33the the truth is we're probably going to
4:35range. And I I do still think it's even
4:38very possible that we just do like a
4:41fivewave structure to push this up even
4:42that high, but it's much harder to
4:44predict ranging action uh than it is
4:47reversal or continuation action uh
4:49during very big moves. All right, we had
4:51a lot of things telling us this is the
4:54top. We had a lot of things telling us
4:56this was the bottom. If you recall, even
4:58incorporating in a lot of that onchain
5:00activity, the onchain losses that when
5:02we're down there being like, "All right,
5:04we've hit 10.8 8 million coins in the
5:06loss. I went on stage at the wave of
5:08innovation in Sydney and described that
5:10hey look we've hit 9 million that's
5:12pretty good but typically we go hit like
5:1410.4 10.5 10.6 six. And so once we got
5:18there and then of course all the
5:19technicals backing up what we wanted to
5:22see, you know, we can get those
5:23reversals right on the way down even
5:25like right we get down to the 100week
5:27moving average. It's just so textbook.
5:29It's so easy after we've now gone
5:31through this so many times to be able to
5:33pinpoint this type of stuff. And but
5:34once we get in here, we get into just so
5:36much chop and we're really stuck in
5:38these types of discussions of what will
5:40the chop look like before we can ever
5:42get to that new all-time high. Because
5:45what we can clearly see in the data is
5:46we're not in an alt season. We see the
5:49Bitcoin dominance completely stuck where
5:51it's been for well over a year. So if we
5:53were in some type of alt season or some
5:55type of breakout or some type of
5:56expansion, we would already be seeing
5:58this range break happening in here,
6:00which we don't see, which implies it is
6:02likely a range build that is going to
6:04happen in here. Uh I'm busy writing the
6:06newsletter because I put out two of them
6:08every month. There'll be another one
6:10posted on Thursday, but kind of joking
6:12in there of the thing the thing we we've
6:15joked about many times in the past is
6:16team sideways and how nobody is on team
6:19sideways. People either want prices to
6:20go up for their bags to go up or prices
6:23to go down for them to be able to reload
6:26their bags or buy. But typically team
6:28sideways isn't the most favored outcome
6:30to end up happening. But historically in
6:33these types of conditions and these
6:35types of recoveries, that's usually the
6:37next phase that we have to go through.
6:39It's very difficult to be able to guess
6:41exactly how ranging price action will
6:43look like. But what will likely happen
6:45is that crowd sentiment will really
6:47struggle during it. So for the last
6:49several weeks, I've really kind of
6:50harped on it ahead of time, saying the
6:52things that are going to matter moving
6:54forward are going to be conviction. And
6:56that when we see these types of things
6:58happen in a market, it is always
6:59signified we're beyond the worst of it.
7:01we're beyond the bottom. Corrections
7:03will come. But historically, those
7:05corrections are opportunities. I even
7:08kind of made fun of that maybe about a
7:09month ago, saying like that's the
7:11classic influencer thing that people
7:12will say is like the markets will crash
7:14and then you know, hey man, you got to
7:16keep the hype machine alive, right? Is
7:18you got to say, hey, what a great
7:20opportunity.
7:21I know I said we're going to $1,000 per
7:24XRP and it's like a dollar now, but what
7:26a great opportunity, right? Like it's
7:29the classic thing that that gets said.
7:31So saying things like, hey, like any
7:33corrections or opportunities, it's
7:34really do doing it from a databacked
7:37perspective of how the market has
7:38historically behaved. We know with
7:40absolute certainty that we can break the
7:4250-week moving average and then the
7:44market can range and that those produced
7:47opportunities yet the conviction needed
7:49to remain because we were in a bull
7:51trend. But if you recall, the crowd
7:54sentiment did not do that during here.
7:56All the calls for 10 to 12K still
7:59persisted all the way throughout here
8:01well in to late 2023.
8:04My thoughts are we aren't going to have
8:05to stay here that long because we have
8:07macro cooperation happening with things
8:09like the IGV and with the Russell 2000.
8:12However, the clear overwhelming bigger
8:14picture perspective of the market is
8:16we've gone oversold, created a bullish
8:18divergence, broke the 50WE, right? Went
8:21oversold, created a bullish divergence,
8:23broke the 50WE. all coming off of the
8:26300week moving average. Now we're stuck
8:28into this. How do we range ourselves to
8:31eventually get to the next phase?
8:32Reversing was one phase. The next phase
8:36is we're going to find a range boundary
8:38and we're going to get stuck and then
8:40we're going to need some type of macro
8:42confluence to be able to take us to the
8:45all-time high. So, how do I in a very
8:47sexy hypeish way say range boundary
8:50inbound team sideways for the win for a
8:53while, but then ultimately this
8:55typically precedes us going into an
8:57expansion. And that's the way I do view
8:59the market and I do think about it is
9:00that eventually we will see a lot of
9:03excitement happen in the market, but
9:04typically that's not the next phase that
9:06we have to deal with right now. Right
9:08now, we could definitely still just
9:11continue marching here throughout the
9:13rest of 2026 and push oursel up into a
9:16range boundary and then have to pull all
9:18the way back down and back test this
9:20area in here before shuffling our way
9:22out likely with a macro event happening
9:25at the exact same time. And for all we
9:27know, the market could just be excited
9:29and having a great time throughout the
9:31rest of 2026. But these ranges can take
9:33various shapes. This is simply a guess.
9:35We saw how XRP ranged all throughout in
9:38here. Still, the low was in. We're all
9:41beyond this. We never revisited these
9:43prices again down here. And it's not
9:45entirely impossible that it doesn't
9:47happen. The bigger picture perspective,
9:48of course, is the bottom was in. So that
9:51conviction is not going to Wayne. The
9:52very difficult part is the ranging
9:55action and the wall of worry and the
9:57sentiment deterioration and the loss of
10:00faith. And it really has a lot to do
10:01with a lot of offsides cap offsides
10:03capital frankly. And I can understand
10:05that um because if you recall during the
10:08February capitulation I put in 25% of my
10:10money. Then throughout the rest of
10:12February I did 2% per day until I got
10:15another 25% throughout the market. And
10:17then down in here I put in another 30%
10:20into the market with daily auto buys of
10:221% which put me at 80%. You all know
10:26this very well which means I still have
10:2820% remaining. And I've been doing
10:31little buys here and there and here and
10:33there. But I can tell you that the
10:35confidence level with each one of those
10:37little buys that are happening in there
10:39are not as strong as the ones that were
10:41all made down in here. And frankly, I
10:43don't even think about these entries.
10:45Like, they're just so good. They're
10:47great. I don't even think about them for
10:49half a second. I'm all glorious. I'm all
10:51focused on this 20% and how difficult it
10:53is to make these entries with extremely
10:55high conviction when we're likely
10:57entering into a ranging environment. No,
10:59it's not that big of a deal. That's just
11:01me being greedy trying to get the
11:02absolute best price. Frankly, I would be
11:04fine if I just put it all in and sat
11:06back and waited a couple of years. I
11:08think I would be all right. However,
11:10what does this tell me about the crowd
11:12that really thought we were going to 40
11:14to 50K when we were all throughout here?
11:17There were plenty of polls that I saw,
11:18two major ones in particular, and
11:21certainly before this candle showed up
11:22here in August, most people thought we
11:25were going to see 40 to 50K, and that
11:27the bottom was not in at that point.
11:29Then we saw a $3 billion liquidation
11:32happen in the market with even the
11:33leverage players being off sides. And so
11:35what does that mean for spot players? It
11:37means they're not at that, you know, 20,
11:39they're at a higher number, right? They
11:40sold down in here, you know, 50, 70,
11:43100% in cash. It's much harder to keep
11:46any type of strong conviction if you're
11:48having to enter 100% of your cash up in
11:51here. I'm getting to see it because it's
11:53like I just got 20% that I got to play
11:55with in here and it's like ah taking my
11:57time going really slow. But if you had
11:59100, it's an entirely different ball
12:01game cuz most of my sentiment just gets
12:03to chill in here not thinking about
12:05anything and I'm just goofing off kind
12:07of with you know a little bit of the bag
12:08remaining. But if you had 100% of the
12:10bag in here, it's very difficult. And I
12:12can just extrapulate what, you know, the
12:13challenges with my 20% to the people who
12:15have 100 or 80 or 50, whatever. And so
12:18that tells me we're not going to have
12:21sentiment deterioration go away. If we
12:23range build, we'll see, believe it or
12:26not, uh you would actually see sentiment
12:29get really as bad, uh, you know, as
12:31being down in these levels the longer
12:34that this range goes on for. And so the
12:36main thing I can do is point to it and
12:37say look like let's zoom out on the
12:39picture here. You get where we're at.
12:42We're definitely well beyond the bottom.
12:44But what historically comes after this
12:46is some type of range building does
12:48begin from here and team sideways takes
12:50over for a little while while crowd
12:51sentiment start to deteriorate.
12:53Definitely doesn't mean that the top of
12:55this move is certainly in. I could see
12:56us getting as high as, you know,
12:58$95,000.
13:00Maybe it takes a month or two for that
13:01to play out. That gives XRP the exact
13:04amount of time it's taken for entire
13:06bare markets to play out in here. And
13:09that late December, it goes for that
13:11push up and then establishes its new
13:13range somewhere between, you know, a
13:15buck 70 and 240, right? Like all of that
13:18looks feasible to me. But like I
13:20mentioned, you know, when we're creating
13:21videos and we're doing forward looking,
13:23like these are big events that we're
13:24talking about up in here. We're big
13:26event when we're talking about the top
13:28coming in, right? Big event when we're
13:29talking about capitulation coming in.
13:31big event for the capitulation to
13:33actually happen and then crowd sentiment
13:36just totally flip and then huge event
13:38for you know $5 billion liquidation and
13:40everybody corralled together for 40 to
13:4350k and then huge event for a big
13:45reversal a range build is not a huge
13:48event and it's boring it's not exciting
13:51and it typically leads to crowd
13:52deterioration right crowd sentiment
13:54deterioration and so I'm definitely
13:56struggling with the aspect of being like
13:58how do I make this sound fun or exciting
14:01and it is really when we look at the
14:02whole picture of it all and and being
14:04beyond the bottom and but it's not
14:06something saying hey we go to the moon
14:07tomorrow next week next month it's that
14:10you know there's going to be a process
14:11that has to work out in here I think we
14:13saw a lot of fear show up there last
14:15Thursday when that liquidation of just a
14:17billion dollars happened because of the
14:19things I just talked about whether it's
14:2020% needing to be entered into the into
14:22the market or it's 100% needing to be
14:24entered into the market just kind of
14:26getting washing machined up in here
14:28there's a lot of offsides capital and
14:29low conviction capital that's entered
14:31into the market and that's why we saw
14:32that. I also think we're kind of coming
14:34off of one of those moments where, you
14:35know, we had meme coins be hot there for
14:37a minute back in August and September
14:39and then meme coins cooled off, that
14:41instant dopamine hit, wore off, then
14:43there's some movement in the markets,
14:45right? It's just it's all sentiment
14:46stuff, but the point I'm getting at is
14:48just like I've said in the last videos,
14:50it just seems like there's this whole
14:51phase that has to work out throughout in
14:53here in this market uh before we look to
14:56the next phase. And and I could sit here
14:58and create hype videos and say we're not
15:00done. and we're not done. Look at this,
15:02man. We could totally play out just like
15:03that. And and and we could do five waves
15:05and it's really exciting and that's cool
15:07and you know, then we might cool off for
15:09a second, but then you you're not ready.
15:11You're not bullish enough, right? Like
15:13we're we're going to rock and roll. And
15:14while I think all of that is true and
15:17and at least viable. It's a path to get
15:19there in like the most bullish way you
15:21could. I just don't think I'm ready to
15:23sell the hype [laughter] of that yet or
15:25present the hype of it yet until there's
15:27the macro element to line up with it at
15:29the same time or that there's like data
15:31that's backing it up because we can look
15:33through this stuff too and like just
15:35look at like onchain data like right
15:37like this is an extreme moment. That's
15:38why it's like awesome to talk about it.
15:40Hey, we're going to see this big
15:41reversal. It's going to be great. Right?
15:43And that's like what we were dealing
15:44with back in 2022. We were dealing with
15:46it during C19 and 2020. We were dealing
15:48with it back here in 2018. But then, you
15:51know, we obviously boom, right? All
15:53those coins in a loss start to fade uh
15:55as the price starts to shift its way up,
15:57which we've seen. Uh but look, look even
15:59what happens in here. It's so choppy to
16:02work its way back up. There's so much.
16:04And that each time we we try to chop our
16:06way back up. All the ranges always look
16:08different on the way back up. And that's
16:09what we're going to have to deal with.
16:11Even though this range looked like this
16:12for Bitcoin, right, we saw for XRP, it
16:14looked more like this, right? Where it
16:16pulled down deeper before then shuffling
16:18its way up. And there just has to be a
16:20little bit of humbleness or humility to
16:22it on on range building to say it's
16:24probably going to come right like I can
16:26make statements that I feel very
16:27confident in that one the bottom is in.
16:30This data unequivocally points to that
16:32that we've gone oversold created a
16:34bullish divergence and then broke
16:36through the 50we moving average
16:37unequivocal like that's what we do. In
16:40addition, the daily breadth has
16:42outrageously opened after being
16:44completely closed like we typically see
16:46during bare markets. we finally get it
16:48to open and that's why you're hearing
16:49stories of, you know, various altcoins
16:51pumping pretty hard. The breadth is
16:53open. That's a signal of the bottom
16:54being in. So having this conviction in
16:57this environment, very simple for me,
16:59but it's also easy to have this
17:00conviction and still know that ranges
17:03likely build. In all examples, we always
17:05get ranges. And well, we even got them
17:07big time in the last cycle and in the
17:09cycle before and in the cycle before
17:11that. I've shown this in past videos
17:13recently that Bitcoin created multiple
17:15ranges on its way back up before it was
17:18able to get a convicting break from the
17:20all-time high. Ranges typically happen.
17:22It's usually not just some straight
17:23line. And that three, there's usually a
17:25coordination with macro that creates
17:28this type of element to happen for
17:29Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market.
17:31And so with our current state of the
17:33market and we talking about hey the
17:34excit you know the easy part of being
17:36like hey there's a lot to talk about
17:37building the top hey there's a lot to
17:39talk about we've fallen back to the
17:40100week moving average the
17:41capitulation's usually next hey there's
17:43a lot to talk about right capitulation
17:45occurred hey there's another liquidation
17:47hey we've done a crashing structure and
17:48now everybody's going to get left behind
17:50this is kind of the difficult phase of
17:52saying there's a lot to say in regards
17:54to big things in the market outside of
17:57reiterating bottom in ranges likely
17:59build and we're going to be waiting for
18:01this type of moment to happen with the
18:02coordination of macro. And I think
18:04eventually it's going to get to a point
18:06where we're not even arguing that
18:07anymore. We won't need to talk about
18:09that. And then all the focus is waiting
18:11for some type of big breakout to happen
18:13in the market. But first, we have to
18:15kind of go through these other steps
18:17before we get there. And the hard part
18:19with ranges is that they can by design
18:22be chaotic and all over the place. And
18:24we have a lot of crowd sentiment that's
18:26very jumpy or skittish, right? And so
18:29social media is going to be a very kind
18:30of dangerous place when it comes to all
18:32of that. And so the major convictions
18:34going to have to lean on this based on
18:36the data that we've already seen
18:38presented in the market, but also
18:40knowing there are unknowns that happen
18:42in here even once we get all of these
18:45elements to produce that the ranging
18:47environments can be vastly different and
18:49vastly difficult or incredibly
18:51difficult. And I think it would be
18:53easier if I just came on here and was
18:54like the hype man selling it, right? But
18:57I just don't think that's what this
18:58channel's become over the years. It's
19:00been so data backed. But that also
19:02prevents all the the chaos that comes
19:03with the social crown, right? Like when
19:05we capitulated, there was no fear about
19:07it. It was like, oh, let's live stream.
19:08This is the capitulation, right? I think
19:10that's the first time I've done like an
19:11impulsive live stream for any reason in
19:13years because it was like this is it.
19:15This is the capitulation and we did it
19:16right there on that day in the midst of
19:18the capitulation. We weren't scared of
19:20it. It was anticipated, right? And then
19:22when this liquidation come, not scared
19:24of it. buying all throughout in here.
19:26And so we look forward to anticipation
19:28right now. And the anticipation is that
19:30there's like this multi-phase process
19:32that has to build throughout in here.
19:34And that's going to be some type of
19:35range build, this lack of excitement,
19:37this team sideways taking over for a
19:39little while and then eventually nearing
19:41a point where there's this confluence
19:43event that happens with everything that
19:45happened with, you know, whether it's
19:46equities or gold and silver or yields or
19:49dollar or or something all comes into
19:52line at the same point creating the
19:54ability for this thing to push to the
19:56high and then the altcoin show likely
19:58starts up in here and not here because
20:00this is likely the push back to the
20:02range and that's why there no movement
20:04in this. That was kind of the argument I
20:06was trying to present for the last
20:07couple of weeks. I do think it's a
20:09ridiculously exciting time in the market
20:11for hopefully everybody, but it comes
20:14with like appropriate time preferences.
20:16That's the other thing I kept talking
20:17about is if time preferences are set on
20:19one week, one month, anything like that,
20:22uh the data doesn't really support it
20:24right now. I'll more than happily take
20:25surprises for things like that to happen
20:28very quickly. But I do think this is
20:30probably the most realistic picture. Uh
20:32if we're able to garner more strength
20:34and push back up to the pre-capitulation
20:36range, uh even if the range does start
20:38lower down in here, it doesn't change
20:40anything in regards to all of these
20:42elements still already being present
20:45throughout the market in here. But I
20:46have to keep pointing to that to say the
20:48crowd sentiment will deteriorate. And
20:50I'm not saying yours will, but it's just
20:52the warning. And I I think we got to see
20:54that on Thursday. Everybody's like
20:56giddish about quantum. Everybody's
20:57giddish about 1010 coming up and the
20:59liquidation made social media be like in
21:02ant pile getting water sprayed on it. I
21:04saw so many posts people being like who
21:06else is disappointed in the price action
21:08of XRP? It's like I'm not here to be a
21:11jerk but I'm just saying like have you
21:13not paid attention? It's been a bare
21:15market for XRP. The historical behavior
21:18of XRP is that it shoots to all-time
21:20highs during expansionary phase in the
21:23crypto and macro market. There are zero
21:25elements ever happening where XRP shoots
21:28into a bull run independently. Could you
21:30be bored? Could you be tired of waiting?
21:32Sure. But like disappointed. Like it's
21:35not one asset doing it. It's the whole
21:38market doing it at the same time. And
21:39once you understand what the whole
21:41market has done at the exact same time,
21:43you don't sit here and stare at one coin
21:45and and be disappointed by that,
21:47especially when a coin like this has
21:49actually held up tremendously well
21:51throughout the bare market. hate it or
21:53love it, dude. Uh, a 73% pull down
21:56during a bare market is exceptionally
21:59good. It places it in the top 10
22:01shallowest bare markets of 2025 and
22:032026. It's done very well, but there's
22:05nothing disappointing about what has
22:07happened in here. This is exactly what
22:08you would expect. And it hit its onchain
22:10losses in here. It's what it needed and
22:12now it's just trying to build things out
22:14to be able to shift back up to a new
22:16range. Just like Bitcoin is, just like
22:18the altcoin market, all ricocheting off
22:20the lows. I think we all just want
22:21things to happen very quickly. And so
22:23the the goal of the video is to try to
22:25be like like I understand that. I'm
22:28excited. I can totally see that the
22:30bottom of the market is in based on
22:32historical data. But if we're going to
22:33be using time as like our metric of
22:36success, then we have to also say
22:38usually we're going to range first
22:40before we can actually end up shooting
22:41for the highs. And that's okay cuz
22:43that's normal. And I look forward to
22:46doing like price prediction videos and
22:48like how high can we go. Um, but I don't
22:50want to do that in uh this type of
22:52environment where we typically do have
22:54the crowd still really kind of jumpy,
22:57you know what I mean? So, I don't know.
22:58I don't really know what the tone of
22:59this video is trying to be. It's really
23:01just trying to be very straightforward.
23:03Bottom is in B from every metric
23:06imaginable. Uh, bottom is in. Ranges are
23:09very likely to occur. They always do.
23:12They're very difficult to predict on
23:14where they're going to exactly happen
23:15at. This is kind of like the most
23:17bullish case that I could create for one
23:19to actually end up showing up in here.
23:21But even so, if I had to guess like
23:23based on like the absolute worst track
23:25record of time predictions in the world,
23:28like I would still think like this range
23:29would last like a minimum of 4 months,
23:32like minimum from today. And that range
23:34could happen much higher than where we
23:36are right now. But it wouldn't change
23:37like what time expectations are for
23:39people. People are like thinking, you
23:41know, when are we going to like break
23:42out and go to the moon where I can sell
23:44my bag and go live in a cabin, drink an
23:46ing tea on a river with a mountain view
23:49in the background. This doesn't produce
23:51that type of results, right? I just
23:53think we have that that and then once we
23:55get to that, then we all do the whole I
23:57I know you guys want me to sing it. You
23:58know, the oh, bump it up. We got to bump
24:01it up. All that stuff, right? And it's
24:03funny though because like a lot of times
24:04when I'm making these videos, I'll
24:06record a lot of it and then I'll go back
24:08and edit it and then I'll add more to
24:10the end of the video, which is what I'm
24:11doing now. I've essentially edited
24:13everything leading up to this point. And
24:15like I listen to my own tone in the
24:16video and I'm like, why do I sound like
24:18such a downer? Why do I sound so serious
24:20in this video when we're talking about
24:22the potential? Like even if it's really
24:25bullish and it just goes like this, like
24:26how is not how is this not extremely
24:29bullish? And I I think it's just there
24:31is so much more to markets than there
24:34are the to than just looking at charts,
24:37right? There's all the execution aspects
24:39of it at the same time. And then there's
24:41all the sentiment aspects of it. Like so
24:44much of the game is psychologybased,
24:46right? And so like I know this part of
24:49the psychology is very exciting and like
24:52everybody's winning and we're all really
24:54happy and like I was just singing a
24:55second ago, the pump it up stuff and
24:57everybody's having a really good time.
24:58But I think the reason why I'm just
25:00sounding so serious about it and so like
25:02level-headed and so monotoned about it
25:04all is the psychology aspect of it. Like
25:07this is all fantastic. This is all
25:09great. Heck, even a a worser case
25:12scenario where it has to pull back
25:13deeper, it's fine. But it's not that
25:15that I'm worried about. It's not, you
25:18know, a potential 10% pullback, 20%,
25:2030%. It's none of that. It's totally
25:22just the psychology of the participants
25:24in the market and how you know I do live
25:27streams all the time, right? So I can
25:29see when the crowd is really starting to
25:30get antsy over on social media and then
25:32that translates into the questions that
25:34I get during markets in the morning when
25:36everybody's really kind of shaky and so
25:38like I anticipate as kind of being like
25:41everybody's kind of like I don't know I
25:43don't know I don't know and then comes
25:45excitement and then comes kind of a
25:48little bit of despondence you know if we
25:50had something like this and then comes
25:52full-blown fear and so like I think of
25:55this as being nothing but excitement and
25:57euphor for you and probably not even a
26:00rational exuberance because it probably
26:01is an exciting and euphoric time in the
26:03market for us to go push up and break to
26:05the all-time high. And I really look
26:07forward to that moment in time. But I
26:09think there's this psychological aspect
26:11of this market where there's some
26:13excitement, some dispondence, and some
26:14fear that happens first in a range
26:16build. And what I'm really just trying
26:18to do is say, "Hey, don't be surprised
26:21if that comes." If it doesn't happen and
26:23we go straight into excitement and
26:25euphoria, dude, let's go, man. I'm all
26:28for it. Like, h, let's go. But I know we
26:32usually have that phase first. And what
26:35I'm trying to do is say we shouldn't be
26:38worried about that. There shouldn't be
26:40the fear aspect that comes from it from
26:42a range build. All metrics imply the
26:45bottom is in. We shouldn't hit that
26:47fear. But I know enough about this
26:49market and been here long enough to know
26:51that when a range build happens, we get
26:53it on social media. We get it in YouTube
26:56videos and we got a taste of it last
26:58Thursday that if it became a bigger
27:00range, you would be bombarded with it.
27:03And I'm here to tell you as the guy with
27:05conviction that I'm not going to buy
27:07into any of that fear-mongering or any
27:09of that worry or concern. And I'm not
27:12saying that from a guy who's trying to
27:13sell hype and be the hype man. I'm
27:15saying it from a technical perspective.
27:17Be wary that if a range builds, a lot of
27:20fear hits the market, but I'm going to
27:22ignore it. That's the point. It's likely
27:24going to happen. We're going to build a
27:26range. There's going to be fear. I'm
27:27going to ignore it. I'm not jumping
27:29straight to the excitement and euphoria
27:31phase just yet. I'm jumping to the range
27:33building phase first, and we'll get to
27:35that later. But when everybody is
27:36saying, "I'm so disappointed in my
27:38asset." I will do the same thing. I'll
27:40[laughter] say, "Have you not been
27:41paying attention?" And that's it. So
27:43wonderful to be beyond the bottom. It is
27:45an exciting time in the market, but that
27:48comes with like exciting in regards to
27:50time preferences and phases that we have
27:52to go through. I know we've kind of
27:53harped on this stuff about a range bill
27:55for the last couple of weeks, and I
27:57still think we could march higher before
27:58that ends up becoming extremely
28:00apparent, but it's kind of one of those
28:02things where I like, you know, doing
28:04this for so long, it's like you just
28:05kind of have gut instincts when you make
28:07these videos that like I know I need to
28:09talk about this a lot cuz it's going to
28:10matter at some point. And then people
28:12kind of start saying, you know, ah,
28:14you're saying the same thing over and
28:15over again. And then people say, well,
28:17you shouldn't say that. You know, you're
28:18saying things over and over again
28:19because you like it when you do things
28:20over and over again. And then like, but
28:22they become gut instincts on knowing as
28:25a content creator, what are some things
28:26that I should be talking about and just
28:28kind of laying a foundation for? And the
28:30foundation is being laid that the bottom
28:32is in. Fear is going to enter this
28:34market at some type of range. And
28:36there's going to be no fear here on the
28:38channel. I think we'd be getting away or
28:40getting too far ahead of ourselves.
28:41thinking we're entering into euphoria
28:43and excitement and irrational
28:45exuberance. I don't think we're at that
28:46phase just yet, and the data doesn't
28:48support that just yet. I do think we'll
28:50eventually get there, but we've got to
28:52do a range first. We're going to have to
28:54watch out for what sentiment
28:55deterioration does during that time, but
28:57we're not going to buy into it because
28:58the overwhelming evidence says bottom is
29:02in and we're waiting for something very
29:05obvious to tell us alt season expansion,
29:08yolo pumps, right? So, we'll see how
29:10this week transpires. The liquidation
29:12held. I thought it would. I didn't think
29:14the 1010 stuff was anything. I was kind
29:16of a jerk about it last week. I was
29:17like, "No, it's not." I think that kind
29:19of just shows you that like anniversary
29:21dates, people picking dates as
29:22anniversary dates and selling prior to
29:24that, thinking it's going to happen.
29:25People are still trying to time the
29:27market. Uh they'll find anything to make
29:29themselves jittery. We've been hearing
29:30about the Quantum stuff for like a year.
29:33Uh there was no difference of anything
29:35that happened the other day in regards
29:36to some dude on making a tweet about
29:38quantum. Probably half of you don't even
29:40know what I'm talking about, but the
29:42other half of crypto Twitter decided to
29:44make themselves scared of it and decided
29:46to make themselves scared of 1010. Uh
29:48but either way, I think it's best to be
29:50the bull during all of this right now. I
29:52am the bull, but I'm also realistic. I
29:55think this reversal would be incredibly
29:56obvious to the crowd during this point.
29:58I also think that would be a logical
30:00point at which the entire offsides crowd
30:03of the 100% capital does yolo buy into
30:06that moment right in there and that
30:07would be the appropriate time to come
30:09back and back test and then we go for it
30:11till then it is going to be a waiting
30:13game. I wish I could tell you the speed
30:15at which it would move and I I frankly
30:17just look forward to that type of phase
30:19but we're just going to have to you know
30:21grind it out until we get there. It's
30:23the wall of worry. It's called that for
30:25a reason. Write it on your screen. Write
30:27it on your monitor. you're in the wall
30:28of worry. There's absolutely no worry
30:31over here on this side of the screen.
30:33But we are just going to have to take it
30:34one day at a time because we're beyond
30:35the top. We're beyond the bottom. We're
30:37beyond the 50we with the breadth open.
30:40But we also have to be realistic about
30:41it. And no, it's called the wall of
30:44worry for a reason. You're going to see
30:45a lot of it on social media. It's
30:47typically a process. And it's this
30:49balance of being optimistic and
30:52realistic at the same time. The
30:54realistic reality is we've done
30:55everything to be beyond the bottom. The
30:57realistic reality is there's likely a
30:59range build. And the optimistic view is
31:01that we're likely going to eventually
31:03push for all-time highs, but the process
31:05takes time. And I want to just explain
31:07that to you very realistically that that
31:09process does take time. I wish I had a
31:12sexier way to explain it. [laughter] But
31:14it is what it is. And I always
31:16eventually know that whenever these
31:18foundations get laid, they end up
31:19becoming useful later. Like if we do end
31:22up pushing up to $95,000 for Bitcoin and
31:25we suddenly see extreme greed enter to
31:27the market, we see a lot of excitement
31:29over there on social media, we lay that
31:31foundation and say, you know what, this
31:33is kind of exactly what we expected that
31:35all the extreme greed would enter here
31:37at 95. Well, most people are really
31:40euphoric and excited in the market that
31:42we're going for all-time highs or that
31:44if we continue building at a range and
31:46suddenly there's extreme fear and we
31:48start seeing the calls for 40 to 50k, we
31:50have the foundation laid to say based on
31:52what? What are you basing that off of?
31:54Nothing. So, it may be hard to see it
31:55right now why this is going to be so
31:57useful moving forward. But, I'm very
31:59convinced it will be important when the
32:02time is right. So, think of it as like a
32:04training video, an educational video, a
32:06thoughtprovoking video. While price
32:08action has really just been kind of
32:10tame, right? We have been rangebound for
32:12a couple of weeks at this point. So,
32:14what people definitely want to hear is
32:15we're either going to crash or we're
32:17either going to rocket ship. Nobody ever
32:19wants to hear sideways action. And
32:20that's just I've done this long enough.
32:22Be 7 years next month I'll be on
32:24YouTube. I kind of know how it goes.
32:25But, uh, when we reflect back on this in
32:27the future, it'll all make sense and
32:29you'll get it. So, all right. This video
32:31is too long. Like, I'm sitting here
32:33looking at it. It's over 30 minutes
32:34long. Could I have said all of this in
32:3610 minutes, maybe? But I think this is
32:38sometimes just what you get on this
32:39channel. It's just a ridiculous amount
32:42of rambling. So, anyway, I hope I occupy
32:45enough of your Monday. I hope that you
32:47are doing well. Um, thank you so much
32:49for watching. Of course, like I
32:51mentioned earlier in the video, there
32:52will be a new newsletter that'll be
32:53published there on Thursday. You can
32:55check out the most recent one that was
32:56published here on September 30th, The
32:58Last Domino Has Fallen. It includes a 30
33:01minute audio recording. I audio record
33:03all of these after I write them. It's
33:04available over here at
33:05blockchainbacker.substack.com.
33:07And of course, you get access to all the
33:09past ones as well. There's a link down
33:10here in the description of this video to
33:12the newsletter at
33:13blockchainbacker.substack.com.
33:15Or you can go directly within your
33:17browser. Otherwise, guys, have a
33:19wonderful week. I'll check in with you
33:21soon. Thank you so much for watching. If
33:22you could please like this video and
33:25give it a thumbs up. If you're new to
33:26the channel, please subscribe and hit
33:28that notification bell so you can be
33:30notified of when I create new videos and
33:32when I go live. As always, this is not
33:34investment advice and I am not a
33:36financial adviser, but if you ever need
33:38a pickme up or a little bit of
33:40reassurance, just remember that the
33:42blockchain backers got your back. Have a
33:45good one.
33:51>> [music]

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