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دوره جامع بورس | قسمت پانزدهم/ پایانی — Transcript

by Moin sadeghian · 3,438 words · 525 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:02No matter how much we know about the
0:04market, if we aren't psychologically
0:06and mentally prepared for trading, it
0:08won't lead to profit. That is why the
0:14final word on all our knowledge
0:16regarding financial markets is our own
0:18financial behavior. Our investment and
0:21our psychology. Something we want to
0:25address in the fifteenth session and
0:26the final chapter of the comprehensive
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2:29.
2:29>> Greetings to you. I hope you are
2:31successful and healthy. Let’s go to
2:34chapter fifteen, investment and
2:35behavioral financial psychology; let us
2:38give you its introduction. We have a
2:42set of traditional assumptions in
2:44financial science; our assumption is
2:46that in economics (we say financial
2:48science, but we mostly mean economics),
2:51we always say in economics that people
2:53make rational decisions and individuals
2:55act without bias in their predictions
2:57about the future. This might be a bit
3:05difficult to understand; without actual
3:07errors, without behaviors outside of
3:09logic. Let’s put it this way, and the
3:16point is that our decisions are
3:18completely logical in the science of
3:20economics. In modern science, we have a
3:25new branch of economics called
3:27behavioral economics. It examines the
3:35fact that often our human behaviors as
3:37economic individuals—as an economic
3:40actor performing an economic task (even
3:42when you go to the corner shop to buy
3:44something, you are performing an
3:46economic act)—are often not rational
3:48at all. For instance, something becomes
3:55trendy; for example, at one time, these
3:58Labubu dolls, or whatever they were
4:00called, became a trend, and thankfully,
4:03that phase is over! You’ve seen how
4:05they were quite ugly and unappealing,
4:07evoking no positive emotion, yet they
4:09became a trend. Or at one point, these
4:12magnets that you’d throw in the air
4:14to hit each other and make a grating
4:16sound; it was actually ear-piercing and
4:19soul-destroying, but it was very
4:21popular. Well, why does this happen? It
4:23wasn't logical at all for anyone to go
4:25and buy these. Or take these fidget
4:27spinners; they said it was good for the
4:28nerves, but you’d spin them so much
4:30that you’d get dizzy and end up with
4:32a headache! Well, buying these isn't
4:34rational at all; why on earth should
4:36someone go and get an ugly doll?
4:39There’s no logic to it; humans seek
4:42beauty, but under the influence of
4:44trends, certain things can happen.
4:46It’s not just trends; we often make
4:48mistakes in our decisions, including
4:51mistakes regarding the ratio of return
4:53and profit. Actually, situations where
4:56people gamble are places where they
4:58aren't acting logically; they have cast
5:00logic aside. So, while it is true that
5:03our primary assumption in traditional
5:05economics is rational behavior. The
5:08reality is that this rational behavior
5:11doesn't always exist. And to be more
5:14precise, rational behavior usually
5:16doesn't exist, and most of our actions
5:18are based on emotions. However, it's a
5:21bit different in the financial market.
5:25You've seen that everything has charts
5:27and calculations, and because
5:29everything is based on numbers, yet our
5:31behavior is usually not based on
5:33reasoning, logic, or calculations—but
5:36on feelings—we may often suffer
5:38losses in financial markets. This is
5:42where, as I told you, the key to
5:44profiting from the market lies. It is
5:48the ultimate conclusion of all our
5:50awareness. Our level of awareness is
5:52quite high now, and we have a lot of
5:54information; can we really profit as
5:56long as we don't know how to properly
5:58manage our psychology? No, so how can
6:01we manage our psychology correctly? How
6:04can we control our own irrational
6:06behavior? It is not a very difficult
6:08task. We define a series of rules for
6:10ourselves. I have told you some of them
6:12, such as the stop-loss rule, or the
6:14fundamental analysis rule where we must
6:16perform fundamental analysis before
6:17technical analysis. Everything I told
6:19you, if you treat these as rules, as
6:21ten commandments (I mentioned the term
6:24ten commandments, if you remember), if
6:26you have these, you say, "Look, I am
6:28following this rule now; I don't care
6:31what my gut tells me to do or not, I
6:33follow this rule; whether I profit or
6:35lose, this is my rule." This helps us,
6:38in fact, to return to that rational
6:40behavior and distance ourselves a bit
6:42from emotional behavior. These were our
6:44traditional assumptions. A shift toward
6:49behavioral finance, which I actually
6:51told you about, that we mainly speak
6:53irrationally. Daniel Kahneman, the
6:58psychologist, and Vernon Smith, the
7:00experimental economist, have worked a
7:02lot in this field. We have a great many
7:05books. For example, the book "
7:07Predictably Irrational" is one of the
7:09books that actually shows us how
7:11wrongly we make decisions. Let me look
7:15for another book now; maybe I don't
7:17have it in the library here; it's not
7:19over there either, probably it's on the
7:21other side. There are a series of books
7:25about economic realities; the book is
7:27named "Factfulness," and it shows us
7:29how reality is right in front of us,
7:31but we don't see it at all and consider
7:34our own mental perception as reality.
7:37So, in fact, we must keep this in mind.
7:41Now, investor behavior: the real goals
7:43of an investor; the apparent goal is
7:46profit; the hidden reality is the
7:48satisfaction of inner emotions. Many
7:52investors want to make a profit so that
7:54, for example, we make some money to
7:56show off to so-and-so. Well, I’m
7:59telling you right now, this investor
8:01will lead to failure; this investor
8:03will be sidelined, lose their money,
8:05and leave. Or, for example, an investor
8:09wants to make an investment to gain
8:11some profit so that dopamine is
8:13released in their brain because of the
8:15good feeling it gives them; the
8:17appearance is profit, but the reality
8:19is that if we are truly looking for
8:21profit, we should act a bit like a
8:23robot here...I said like a robot; how
8:25does a robot act? A robot comes and
8:28says, "Sir, this is my set of
8:30instructions.""I work according to this
8:32instruction and I never go outside this
8:34instruction or outside this set
8:36framework." You want to be emotional in
8:40your relationships, with your friends,
8:42or anywhere else, you want to satisfy
8:44your inner feelings, go ahead, but the
8:46financial market is not the place for
8:48that, otherwise you will lose. Or, for
8:50example, satisfying inner feelings. "
8:53Sir, I have no choice!""I have been
8:55unemployed for a while now, for example
8:57, the economic conditions of the
8:58country are such that I cannot start a
9:00job, and I want to enter the financial
9:01market"; well, that's not how it works.
9:04When you enter the financial market out
9:06of desperation and necessity, expect to
9:08lose, because your probability of loss
9:11goes up. Even if you come out of
9:15desperation, you must act logically;
9:17you must act logically. These markets
9:21are not places to get rich overnight.
9:23Many do get rich overnight in these
9:25markets; I'm not saying they don't,
9:27there are many of them. But in this
9:30market, you have certain financial
9:32habits, your money gradually increases,
9:34it grows, your financial behavior is
9:36disciplined. Now, at a critical moment
9:40when that market, say the stock or
9:42crypto market, is about to experience a
9:44huge surge, you too can benefit from
9:46that massive growth. But it’s not
9:50like that; it’s not gambling, it’s
9:52not a lottery ticket you buy, hoping
9:54you might or might not win. We’ve
9:56provided a few examples for you here as
9:58well. Our inputs and extreme reactions
10:06have various causes; these losses, the
10:09negative percentages you see here going
10:12up in smoke in these images, are
10:14significant; stress, social media, late
10:17entry, irrational decisions, excessive
10:19joy, excessive optimism, extreme
10:22pessimism, intense fear, high
10:24risk-taking, or risk aversion. In fact,
10:32we hear stories about huge profits and
10:34get carried away, we read news and get
10:36caught up in the hype. I gave you a
10:38formula: I said when everyone is
10:40talking about a market, you should run
10:42away. You shouldn't get caught up in
10:45the hype and enter that market, as all
10:46these things cause us to lose money.
10:49I’ll say it again; I’m saying all
10:51this, but the simplest way is to have a
10:53set of rules for yourself and follow
10:55them; take this advice from a market
10:57veteran. Take this from me, a veteran
11:02of the market; although I’m young, I
11:04am an old hand in this market. Take
11:09this from me, truly; I’ve seen
11:11everything in this market: its growth,
11:13its recession—not just the stock
11:15market, but the crypto market too.
11:17I’ve seen its mining, its scams, its
11:20huge profits, its downturns, I’ve
11:22seen accounts go to zero overnight, and
11:24I’ve seen them multiply overnight.
11:27Take this from me. Set a series of
11:29rules. If someone makes more profit
11:31than you, good for them; may God give
11:33them more. If someone makes less profit
11:35than you, it’s absolutely none of
11:37your business. You are working
11:38according to your own rules, and
11:40that’s it. And all these emotional
11:42weaknesses can only be actually set
11:46aside by respecting your own personal
11:48rules. I say you should show a lot of
11:54love; enjoy life by seeing a beautiful
11:56view, by seeing the spring weather, by
11:59feeling a cool breeze on your skin,
12:01enjoy it to the fullest. Grieve the
12:08loss of a friendship or a broken bond,
12:10and feel your sadness; I acknowledge
12:12all your emotions because I am human
12:14too and have those feelings, and in
12:16fact, try to express your emotions as
12:19much as you can. When you see a
12:23beautiful painting—and since most of
12:25our audience is male, and men usually
12:28do this less—there’s nothing wrong
12:30with saying how cool, how beautiful, or
12:32how amazing it is; it’s okay to show
12:35your emotions; it’s a good thing!
12:37Just don’t bring those emotions into
12:39the financial market; spend those
12:41emotions elsewhere so that there is
12:42nothing left for the market. Well,
12:44emotional attachment to our assets;
12:46there are many times when we have
12:48certain emotional attachments to our
12:50holdings; for example, we say this
12:52stock gave me so much profit, I don't
12:54have the heart to sell it, do you know
12:56how much it paid me? For instance,
12:58you've sold half, you say no, it's
13:00turning negative, it's taking back the
13:02profit it gave you, but no! This is
13:05very much, I really buy this or that
13:07stock, I bought it, I really like its
13:10products, I go to the supermarket and
13:12buy them, I'm really satisfied, buy
13:14more of this stock, buy a few more
13:16units; put these emotional things aside
13:19. Just observe your emotions; we can
13:23trick our emotions a little bit; for
13:25example, how? For instance, the profit
13:28you make from the market—you've
13:29worked for 3 months, made a profit,
13:31worked for a month, made a profit—
13:33withdraw that profit entirely from the
13:35stock market, put it into your bank
13:37account, and then, say a week or 10
13:39days later, reinvest it. Well, you
13:41might ask, what is the point of that?
13:43Well, I have a reason for why it's
13:45necessary. I won't withdraw it anymore.
13:48Because once this money enters your
13:50account, you develop a sense of
13:51ownership, meaning the bond with this
13:53money tightens; then, when you put that
13:56money back into the financial market,
13:58you are no longer willing to take
13:59reckless risks with it. You say, look,
14:04even though it was your profit, it has
14:06now entered your bank account and been
14:08withdrawn, and this can really help you
14:10in that regard. Well, logical solutions
14:13; we have listed each problem here, the
14:15problem here is holding a stock or
14:17asset for emotional reasons; the
14:19logical solution: there must be at
14:21least one convincing reason based on
14:23investment principles for any asset to
14:26exist in the portfolio. Like what? Herd
14:28behavior and imitation; we have talked
14:30about this before. Suddenly, for
14:32example, everyone says let's go do such
14:34and such, you shouldn't say let's go do
14:37that; you say, wait, let me examine it
14:39and see how it is, and then we don't
14:41follow...anyone here [regarding] the
14:43characteristics of emotional investing?
14:45From whom did you learn manners? From
14:47the ill-mannered. Emotional investors
14:49are usually people who come into the
14:51market, lose money, and leave; they
14:54leave quickly and then come and say: "
14:56Ugh! The stock market ruins everyone."
15:01It brings everyone to misery and ruin.
15:04Brother, look at how your own
15:06investment was. Then come and say these
15:08things. If you really invested
15:10according to principles and the stock
15:12market brought you to misery and ruin,
15:14then I will accept your word. Well,
15:17let's take a look and see what
15:18emotional investing is like. We are not
15:20like that. We are positioned exactly at
15:23the opposite end. Selling stocks at a
15:25small drop; as soon as a stock drops a
15:28little, they don't care about the
15:30strategy they had before; even if they
15:32set a stop-loss or a take-profit, they
15:34sell it the moment it drops slightly,
15:36before it even reaches their stop-loss.
15:42Intense focus on news; I always say
15:44that in financial markets, you should
15:46be completely blind and deaf to news
15:48and not hear it at all, except for news
15:51of war or events that truly affect
15:53everything, only those. Happiness over
16:00unrealized profit; for example, you say
16:03it would be great if this doubles, then
16:06you go ahead and start planning
16:08expenses; if this stock doubles, say
16:10from 10 billion to 20 billion, that's
16:12good; I'll go spend 2 billion, take 3
16:15luxury trips, do this and that; brother
16:17, the money hasn't even hit your
16:19account yet! Just let the stock grow,
16:23let it, let it be bought, you haven't
16:25even bought it yet. I mean, it's really
16:28hard, you know; one likes to be happy
16:30in advance, but this premature
16:32happiness is for gamblers who keep
16:34gambling and are happy, but in the end,
16:36gamblers usually lose money overall. Or
16:39a small loss; for instance, the stock
16:41has gone negative a little, they are
16:43committed to their stop-loss, but they
16:45just sit there and fret; oh, I wish I
16:48hadn't done this, I wish I hadn't, may
16:50God not forgive the parents of whoever
16:52did this. For example, he says my heart
16:54...there was an old man who had a
16:55sewing machine in my hand, he said I
16:57wish I could take this sewing machine
16:59and smash it on the head of the person
17:00who gave it to me; He was saying this,
17:03you shouldn't be like that. Well, let's
17:05see the second part of the
17:06characteristics of an emotional
17:08investor; it's the continuation of the
17:09same. Fear of checking the stock price;
17:12not checking, what if it has gone down!
17:14They are stressed, and the moment they
17:16want to press that button to enter the
17:18stock price, their hand shakes. Calm
17:20down! Don't you have a strategy? You do
17:22; you either reach the stop-loss or the
17:25take-profit, that's it. Panicking at
17:28every piece of bad news; I say when you
17:30, for instance, say, "Okay, here is my
17:32entry point, here are my price targets,
17:35and here is my stop-loss," and my
17:36stop-loss tracks the price, it doesn't
17:39matter to me if it hits my stop-loss,
17:41it doesn't matter. A stop-loss means
17:43the point where I am no longer willing
17:44to lose any more money, it doesn't
17:46matter to me anymore. Checking stock
17:48prices repeatedly; we shouldn't keep
17:50checking every single moment to see
17:51what happened. Let's look at ways to
17:53reduce our emotional impacts; let's
17:56build a diversified investment
17:58portfolio, with everything in it—gold
18:00, real estate, stocks—everything, it
18:02should have everything. Don't risk all
18:07our money on one thing, and don't put
18:09all our eggs in one basket. We should
18:14have a documented plan and strategy,
18:16which I have talked to you about more.
18:18Do not invest with borrowed or loaned
18:20money; do not bring loan or borrowed
18:22money to invest. As someone who studied
18:24economics, I always say, for example,
18:26in conditions where inflation is very
18:29high, go get a bank loan (because bank
18:31loans are cheap) and go buy gold; for
18:33example, okay, this is okay. Investing
18:36in gold, for example, is fine, but
18:38don't go borrow money to bring into the
18:40stock market; many have been ruined
18:42because of this very issue. Start
18:46investing with small amounts; until you
18:48become profitable with your small
18:50amounts, you are not allowed to bring
18:52in large sums of money, you are not
18:53allowed. Accepting missed opportunities
18:55, just like what I told you. I think
18:57so-and-so made a profit; good for them.
18:59So-and-so lost money; it has nothing to
19:01do with us. Everyone is going to buy
19:03this stock; I am not going to buy it.
19:05The market has whatever direction it
19:07wants; it has nothing to do with me
19:08whether I can predict the market's
19:10direction. I make my own decisions; I
19:12decide based on my principles. Let's do
19:15a final wrap-up of our entire course,
19:17because we have reached the end, and it
19:19was a very attractive course. We really
19:22wanted such a comprehensive course in
19:24our educational track record and the
19:26free training we provide; we proudly
19:28provide all of this for free. I have
19:30seen some people on social media, for
19:32example, some of these package sellers,
19:34coming out and saying: "No, starting
19:36tomorrow, we want to provide our stuff
19:37for free." But we have provided all our
19:40training for free since day one and
19:42made it available to everyone; because
19:44our main profit is actually not in
19:49selling our training. It is in earning
19:53profit from our creativity, in earning
19:55profit and our creativity in building
19:57modern investment methods. Let's do a
20:01final wrap-up. We reviewed all the
20:04concepts we saw here. Financial
20:07institutions, types of securities,
20:09analysis methods, risk and return,
20:11market structure—these were all
20:13things that we needed to tell you. We
20:15have also put a support ID here. Of
20:18course, the internet is completely cut
20:20off right now, but my final request is
20:22for you to click the link in the video
20:24caption and enter your information
20:26there. Enter your information. Tell us
20:28which course you watched. So that we
20:30have this information and our
20:31connection with you is not lost. Even
20:33if the internet goes down, if there is
20:35instability, if these platforms stop
20:37serving Iranians, or whatever happens,
20:40our connection with you will not be cut
20:42. I love you all, I hope you are always
20:44profitable and blessed. With the
20:49explanation that our course is finished
20:51, but your work with finance and our
20:53work with you is not over; we can, and
20:56if you want, you can still ask our team
20:58your questions, ask our support, and
21:00you can get a mentor, you can have a
21:02coach by your side to assist and help
21:04you during your investments. Goodbye.
21:14Hey

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