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事態が急変しました...。海外機関投資家の不穏の動きにより今後日本株にとんでもないことが起こるかもしれません — Transcript

by イケガミ投資塾【メガバンク出身】 · 4,735 words · 726 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Hello, everyone. I am Yukigami. I’d
0:03like to start with one question: why
0:05are stock prices rising in this
0:07environment? I’m sure many of you
0:10have wondered this; we only hear about
0:12high prices and inflation, and the wars
0:14around the world haven't ended. Wages
0:18aren't going up either. Yet, for some
0:20reason, the market keeps trending
0:21upward. Especially those who study
0:24fundamentals—that is, corporate
0:26performance and actual economic
0:27conditions—have likely felt
0:29frustrated, wondering why the market
0:31moves in ways that defy reality. I
0:34believe this point is very important.
0:36That frustration isn't because your
0:38analysis is wrong. The reality is that
0:41the main drivers of price movement are
0:43no longer human. It’s simply that
0:45automated trading, such as algorithmic
0:47trading, is what moves the market. Some
0:50of you might think that if machines are
0:52driving it, there’s nothing
0:54individual investors can do. Honestly,
0:57this way of thinking is half right and
0:59half wrong. It is true that as long as
1:01machines are in control, humans trying
1:03to compete with emotions or rules of
1:05thumb are at a disadvantage. However,
1:08machines have their own fixed habits.
1:10If you understand those habits, you can
1:13actually ride them effectively and
1:14still secure significant profits as an
1:16individual investor. Today, I want to
1:19clarify the true nature of this gap
1:21between reality and stock prices, and
1:24how to follow it, using concrete
1:26numbers to explain it down to the last
1:28detail. Let’s look at some U.S. data,
1:31specifically consumer sentiment—the
1:33public's mood regarding the economy.
1:35This has fallen to its most pessimistic
1:38level in the past 74 years. Looking
1:40back at history, every time consumer
1:42sentiment has plummeted this sharply,
1:44it has led to an economic recession.
1:47Without exception. Logically, it
1:48wouldn’t be strange for this to
1:50eventually impact corporate earnings.
1:52However, while ordinary people are
1:54suffering, stock prices are not
1:56crashing. Even with the war surrounding
1:58Iran, there is no evidence that the
2:00economy has improved compared to before
2:02the conflict. Yet, as a matter of fact,
2:04stock prices are higher than they were
2:06before the war. You might say it can be
2:07explained to some extent by claiming
2:09that stock prices reflect the future.
2:11But honestly, there are so many times
2:12when the market moves seem to go too
2:14far, aren't there? I personally used to
2:16make decisions in the investment
2:17banking division of a mega-bank by
2:19looking at both fundamentals and
2:21technicals, but lately, it's clear that
2:23technicals are working more often. At
2:25least, that’s the impression I have.
2:27However, this isn’t just a gut
2:29feeling; it’s actually because the
2:30market participants themselves have
2:32changed. The important thing is that
2:34once you understand the true nature of
2:36this shift, you can to some extent
2:38anticipate which way the market will
2:40move next. So, in this video, I will
2:42explain what exactly is creating this
2:44gap between reality and stock prices,
2:46and how we individual investors can
2:48build profits by following these market
2:50participants. I will break it down
2:52using specific conditions and figures,
2:54so please make sure to watch until the
2:56end. Once again, I am Ikegami. I spent
2:59a long time fighting on the front lines
3:01in the investment banking division of a
3:03mega-bank. On this channel, I share
3:06information that will help with your
3:08investments based on that experience,
3:10so please be sure to subscribe. The
3:13biggest disadvantage for individual
3:15investors in Japan is actually the
3:17order in which information arrives.
3:20When I was in the investment banking
3:21division, I always kept a professional
3:23"QUICK" terminal on my desk where I
3:25could see it. A QUICK terminal is a
3:28device that provides stock prices,
3:30futures, options, forex, and bond
3:32prices, as well as the latest news, far
3:34faster than the general public. In
3:36Japan, these are widely used by
3:38securities firms, banks, asset
3:40management firms, insurance companies,
3:42and pension funds. Simply put, it’s
3:44impossible for those who see
3:45information later to win against those
3:47who see it first. By the time you see
3:49the news and think a stock is a buy,
3:51the institutional investors have
3:52already finished their trading. I’d
3:54like to introduce one typical example
3:56of this priority information. This is a
3:59report that was issued to clients by
4:00the investment banking division of the
4:02bank where I worked, and this is what
4:04it says. It states that while the rise
4:07in stock prices from the recent lows
4:09involved some short-covering, the main
4:11driving force was buying by CTAs. That
4:13is exactly what it says. I’ll break
4:15down two terms here. First is "short
4:17covering." This is when people who
4:19borrowed and sold stocks—that is,
4:21short sellers—buy back the shares to
4:23return them. For example, imagine you
4:26borrowed a game from a friend and sold
4:28it for 10,000 yen. To return the game
4:30later, you would have to buy that same
4:32game back from somewhere. Stock trading
4:35is the same; investors who shorted a
4:37stock expecting a drop must eventually
4:39buy it back to return it. So, if the
4:42price starts to rise, short sellers
4:44fearing further losses will scramble to
4:47buy back the stock. This buying
4:49activity can push the price even higher
4:51, leading to a surge that fuels further
4:54gains. However, it's important to note
4:56that they aren't buying because they
4:58actually want the stock. Since they are
5:01buying purely out of necessity to
5:02return borrowed shares, the buying
5:04pressure fades once the repurchasing
5:06concludes. In other words, a rise
5:09caused by short covering is not driven
5:11by an increase in investors who want
5:13the stock, but by a temporary price
5:15jump due to repurchasing. The other
5:18term is today's main topic: CTAs. Many
5:21of you have likely heard this
5:23three-letter acronym for the first time
5:25. Formally, it’s translated as "
5:27Commodity Trading Advisor," but the
5:29Japanese translation is quite confusing
5:31. Because it includes the word "
5:33commodity," people might think they
5:34only trade things like soybeans or corn
5:36. But in reality, that's completely
5:38wrong. Today's CTAs are massive
5:40investment funds that use computer
5:42programs to fully automate the trading
5:45of global stocks, bonds, and currencies
5:47. It’s enough to understand that only
5:50the name has remained from the past.
5:52The most important point here is that
5:54humans aren't making any of the
5:55decisions. Usually, when you hear "fund
5:58manager," you imagine a smart
6:00professional in a suit reading
6:02financial reports, meeting CEOs, and
6:04deciding that a company will grow.
6:07That’s likely the image you have.
6:08Back when I was at a bank, that was
6:10basically how our investment operations
6:12worked too. However, CTAs have none of
6:14that process. They don't read corporate
6:16financial statements. They don't meet
6:18with CEOs. They don't even look at
6:20economic news, naturally. All they look
6:22at is price movement on a chart. If it
6:24starts to rise, they buy; if it starts
6:26to fall, they sell. To put it extremely
6:28, that is their only basis for judgment
6:30. To use a more familiar analogy, it's
6:32like a self-driving car that only
6:34watches the brake lights of the car in
6:36front. If the car in front accelerates,
6:39it accelerates; if it slows down, it
6:42slows down. It doesn't see what's
6:43happening further down the road. So, as
6:45long as traffic is smooth, it drives
6:48with surprising accuracy. But you can
6:50imagine what happens when the car in
6:52front stops suddenly. What's scary is
6:56that there are hundreds of these
6:57self-driving cars globally, all running
6:59on the same program. One car is just a
7:02margin of error, but they all watch the
7:04same brake lights, hit the gas at the
7:06same time, and lift off at the same
7:08time. This leads to the point I’ll
7:10discuss later: machines making the same
7:12mistake all at once. From an investor's
7:14perspective, it sums up like this. They
7:16don't read the news. They only read
7:18charts. They are huge buyers and, at
7:20the same time, huge sellers. This means
7:23even when you're up at night watching
7:25the news and bracing for a market
7:26collapse, if the chart is pointing up,
7:28the machines will keep buying
7:30indifferently. Conversely, no matter
7:32how good the news is, the moment the
7:34chart turns downward, the machines will
7:36sell without mercy. These guys are
7:37usually the culprits on days when the
7:39news and stock prices don't align. This
7:41fact is truly important. In other words
7:44, CTAs do not take into account war,
7:46the economy, or corporate earnings at
7:48all. Machines automatically trade
7:51stocks by looking only at signals from
7:53charts, but the scale of CTA trading is
7:55staggering; according to a report
7:57Goldman Sachs released to clients on
7:59April 14, 2026, they have been buying
8:01up roughly 100 billion dollars in
8:03global stocks per week. In Japanese yen
8:05, that’s about 15 trillion yen. And
8:07that amount is increasing every year.
8:09Naturally, the capital inflow this year
8:11is the largest in history. In other
8:13words, the recent rise in stock prices
8:15may not be due to an improving economy
8:17or a resolution to the war, but simply
8:18because machines have been buying at a
8:20scale tens of thousands of times larger
8:22than humans. That is the background.
8:25Next, I will peel back the layers to
8:27see what those machines are looking at
8:29when they pull the trigger. This next
8:31part is very important, so I definitely
8:34want you to watch it. Many of you are
8:36likely investing monthly in the Nikkei
8:39225, S&P 500, or All Country World
8:41Index through NISA. In reality, the
8:43price of your investments is also being
8:45determined by the order buttons of
8:46machines on the other side of the globe
8:48. Thinking of it that way, it’s a
8:50waste to remain ignorant of their rules
8:52. CTAs use a strategy called trend
8:55following. They buy more when a market
8:57starts to rise, and sell more when it
8:59starts to fall. That is all there is to
9:01it. It rises, so they buy. They buy, so
9:04it rises. They simply ride the trend
9:06for all it is worth. By the way, retail
9:08investors who mindlessly flock to
9:10stocks just by watching price movements
9:12are sometimes ironically called "
9:14momentum chimpanzees," or "mome-chin"
9:16for short. In that sense, CTAs are the
9:19machine version of a "mome-chin."
9:21However, if you just laugh this off,
9:23you might lose out. This "mome-chin"
9:26strategy. It tends to be dismissed by
9:28both individuals and institutions, yet
9:30there are heaps of papers supporting
9:32its effectiveness. A famous 2017 paper
9:35even used long-term data dating back to
9:371880 to prove that trend-following
9:39strategies have shown attractive
9:41performance over the long term.
9:44Furthermore, a 2024 paper concludes
9:46that the more unstable the market, the
9:48more likely investors are to ignore
9:50fundamentals and rely on price
9:52movements, or momentum. It means that
9:54in times of uncertainty, humans become
9:56more like machines. So, what conditions
9:59are those machines programmed with?
10:01While the actual figures vary slightly
10:03by fund, various research and model
10:05analyses show they largely boil down to
10:08three main rules. The first one is the
10:11moving average. For example, the 5-day
10:13moving average and the 25-day moving
10:15average. There are investors who
10:17mechanically place buy orders when
10:18these form a golden cross. To begin
10:20with, a moving average is simply a line
10:22connecting the average stock price over
10:24the past several days. For example, if
10:26your test scores are 80 today, 50
10:28yesterday, and 90 before that, it's
10:31hard to tell if your performance is
10:33improving or declining. By calculating
10:37the average of the last five tests, you
10:39can see the overall trend without being
10:41distracted by temporary fluctuations in
10:44scores. A moving average is the same;
10:47by looking at the average over a
10:48certain period rather than daily prices
10:50, it becomes easier to grasp the
10:52broader direction of the stock. This is
10:54used by combining short-term,
10:55medium-term, and long-term periods to
10:57execute trades. From an investor's
10:59perspective, since the dates when these
11:00lines cross can be calculated and
11:02predicted in advance, the machines '
11:03order dates are somewhat readable. The
11:05second factor is short-term returns.
11:07The more positive the recent
11:09performance, the greater the automatic
11:10buying pressure becomes. The reverse is
11:12also true; the more negative it becomes
11:14, the more selling pressure increases.
11:16The third factor is the breakout. This
11:18is a mechanism that automatically buys
11:20once a stock exceeds a pre-determined
11:21high price. Human sentiment doesn't
11:23matter at all. The key price levels are
11:25not just numbers, they act as switches.
11:27In short, if the market crashes, the
11:29crowd of momentum traders will all
11:30switch to a wait-and-see stance
11:32simultaneously. As long as it doesn't
11:33crash, the higher it goes, the stronger
11:35the buying power becomes. This is
11:37extremely important. Some of you might
11:39wonder if they can really move the
11:40market at such a scale. However, it is
11:43entirely possible. CTA industry trading
11:45has ballooned to an unimaginable scale,
11:48from $ 40 billion in the year 2000 to
11:50about $ 100 billion per week by 2026.
11:53Furthermore, they use leverage with
11:55futures. Leverage is a mechanism that
11:57allows you to trade many times more
11:58than the capital you have on hand.
12:00It’s the same concept as a mortgage
12:01where you buy a house with just a down
12:02payment. That is why the actual
12:04position size becomes several times
12:05larger than the managed assets. While
12:07the fact that they use leverage is
12:09important, there is something even more
12:11shocking that is not widely known.
12:15Looking at the daily breakdown of the
12:17US stock market, roughly one-quarter of
12:19the total is retail investors, another
12:22quarter is human institutional
12:23investors, and the remaining half—the
12:26majority—consists of trades
12:27determined by machines. Among those,
12:31HFT accounts for an overwhelmingly high
12:34number of trades. HFT stands for
12:36High-Frequency Trading; simply put, it
12:38is a process where computers, not
12:40humans, repeatedly buy and sell stocks
12:42in the blink of an eye. For example,
12:44suppose Company A's stock is selling
12:46for 100 yen, and on another market,
12:48there is someone willing to buy it for
12:50100.1 yen. A human might not even
12:52notice such a tiny difference. But HFT
12:55computers instantly spot these slight
12:57price gaps, buying at 100 yen and
13:00selling at 100.1 yen. They repeat this
13:03one, ten, or a hundred times over a
13:05very short period. In other words, HFT
13:08doesn't aim for a large profit on a
13:10single trade, but rather builds up
13:12small gains through repeated
13:14transactions. Because of this, the
13:16number of trades HFT performs in the
13:17market is extremely high. However, this
13:20is the most important point for
13:21beginners. Just because HFT is trading
13:23a large volume doesn't mean a large
13:25number of investors are buying that
13:27stock. Once they buy at 100 yen and
13:29sell at 100.1 yen, they immediately
13:31move on to the next trade. The volume
13:34is inflated because they aren't holding
13:36onto what they buy, but are repeatedly
13:38buying and selling in a short timeframe
13:40. Therefore, even if HFT trading volume
13:42increases when stock prices are rising,
13:44it doesn't necessarily mean they are
13:46buying the stock for the long term.
13:48This is a key point to keep in mind
13:50when institutional investors look at
13:52HFT. On the other hand, the CTA—the "
13:54machine" investment group—tends to
13:56move almost in unison at similar times,
13:58even if each fund's settings are
14:00slightly different. That is why their
14:02concentrated, directional capital is on
14:04a completely different scale, and it is
14:06said that their influence on prices is
14:08actually the greatest. Needless to say,
14:10they are completely unaware of the
14:11current situation in Iran or the war in
14:13Ukraine, nor do they know that Japan's
14:15real wages are negative. It means they
14:17are determining global stock prices
14:18without even knowing it. That's just
14:20the kind of place the market is; it
14:22keeps running despite all these
14:24inconsistencies. Now, here is my own
14:26perspective. For those of you in the
14:29Japanese market, this mechanical Nikkei
14:32is much more intuitive than looking at
14:34the US S&P 500. This is because CTAs
14:37are running the exact same rules in the
14:39Nikkei 225 futures, a market with some
14:42of the world's highest liquidity.
14:44Because of this, there is one line I am
14:47drawing right now. That is the Nikkei
14:50225 at 60,000 yen. This is not just a
14:52nice round number. I see it as a price
14:56range where the three rules I explained
14:58earlier—moving averages, recent
15:00returns, and high-price breakouts—all
15:03converge. In other words, as long as it
15:05stays above 60,000 yen, the machines
15:07will continue to buy. However, the
15:09moment it falls below 60,000 yen, those
15:11same machines will all flip to selling
15:13at once. It means the ally that was
15:15supporting the price turns into a
15:16weapon against it. This asymmetry is
15:18what is truly terrifying. It means that
15:21once the market starts to fall, the
15:23machines provide zero support. When I
15:25was an institutional investor, I often
15:27saw buy orders vanish from the board
15:29the moment a key level was broken, but
15:32that wasn't humans fleeing; it was just
15:34the machines stopping their orders. Now
15:36, let me talk about the opposite side
15:38as well. This year, the US midterm
15:40elections are on November 3rd. Past
15:43data shows a tendency for the market to
15:46start rising about 22 trading days
15:48before the election, and this year,
15:50that date is October 2nd. To summarize,
15:53it looks like this. If the Nikkei
15:55maintains 60,000 yen after October 2nd,
15:58seasonality and mechanical buying will
16:00align in the same direction. Conversely
16:02, if it falls below 60,000 yen, a
16:04moment will come where all the machines
16:06are wrong at the same time. I will
16:07summarize this from an investor's
16:09perspective. Until the US midterm
16:11elections, you only need to watch this
16:13one line: the Nikkei 225 at 60,000 yen.
16:16Of course, this number may fluctuate
16:18slightly. But having the focus narrowed
16:21down to just one line to watch is a
16:22significant advantage in itself. And
16:25this next point is the most important
16:27part of this video. You might be
16:29thinking, wouldn't it be more
16:31profitable to just follow the charts
16:33and stop worrying about fundamentals?
16:35To be honest, that is true in some
16:37cases. Looking at last year's example,
16:39the momentum sell signal flashed at the
16:41start of the Trump tariff shock, and
16:42stock prices plummeted afterward. Then,
16:45it flashed a buy signal just after
16:47passing the bottom. And it was spot on.
16:49However, we must think about this
16:51calmly. Changes in momentum only tell
16:54us where the money is flowing at this
16:56very moment. Whether the economy is
16:58collapsing or a war is escalating
17:00behind the scenes, the charts won't
17:02tell us anything. To put it extremely,
17:04momentum traders will keep buying as
17:05long as the chart points up, even if
17:07there's a war or a recession is right
17:09around the corner. That is why they are
17:11incredibly powerful when a trend is in
17:13progress. But their weakness is that
17:15the moment a trend reverses, the entire
17:17momentum crowd gets it wrong at the
17:19same time. Furthermore, the momentum
17:21crowd accelerates the movement in both
17:23rising and falling markets. This causes
17:26stock prices to move far beyond the
17:28fair value indicated by fundamentals.
17:30Fair value refers to the inherently
17:32appropriate price based on a company's
17:34earnings. Think of it like the list
17:35price at a supermarket. Machines will
17:37keep lining up at the register even if
17:39the price is list price or half off.
17:41Therefore, only those who can judge
17:43whether a stock is oversold or
17:44overbought based on performance can
17:46take advantage of the machines'
17:48excesses. If you only look at the
17:49charts, you won't have a basis to buy
17:51while a stock is clearly falling. Since
17:53your reasoning is weak, you may end up
17:55missing the bottom while frozen in
17:57inaction. Conversely, if you only look
17:59at fundamentals, you might keep saying
18:01the stock price is wrong and fail to
18:02ride the uptrend. I will summarize the
18:05conclusion in 30 seconds. What moves
18:07stock prices is not the economy, but
18:08machines that only read charts. Those
18:10machines turn from friend to foe at the
18:13boundary of a specific Nikkei 225 level
18:15after October 2nd, ahead of the US
18:18midterm elections. That is why we
18:20investors should adopt a dual-wielding
18:22approach: riding the momentum while
18:24securing an escape route using
18:25fundamentals. Just knowing that this "
18:27Momichin Corps" exists allows you to
18:29stay calm and not panic when faced with
18:31strange market movements that news
18:33reports cannot explain. That alone is a
18:35truly huge advantage. Finally, I would
18:38like to ask you all a question. With
18:40the midterm elections approaching on
18:42November 3rd, will the machines
18:44continue to press the accelerator at
18:46the 60,000 yen mark, or will everyone
18:48hit the brake and accelerator by
18:49mistake at the same time? Which would
18:51you bet on right now? I hope this video
18:54gives you an opportunity to think about
18:56that answer. From here on, it’s a bit
19:00of casual chat, so please relax and
19:02listen. I explained that it isn't
19:04humans moving the stock prices this
19:06time, but there is an event where just
19:08one single person moves the markets
19:10across the entire world. That event
19:12isn't earnings reports, nor is it key
19:14economic indicators like the employment
19:16statistics; for me, it’s the FOMC,
19:18and the main star is the Fed Chair. The
19:20FOMC is the meeting that determines US
19:22monetary policy, held eight times a
19:24year. In Japan, it would be equivalent
19:26to the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy
19:28Meeting. It is here that interest rate
19:30decisions are made, causing stock
19:32prices and currencies around the world
19:33to move in unison. When I was an
19:35institutional investor at a bank, from
19:37the day before the FOMC, I wouldn't go
19:39as far as saying I couldn't work, but I
19:42was always restless and something in my
19:44mind was always uneasy. From around the
19:46evening, I would think over and over
19:48again, "Is it the FOMC tonight?" That
19:50feeling resembles something, and I’ve
19:52been thinking about what it might be; I
19:54think it’s like the feeling of lying
19:56in bed the night before an elementary
19:57school sports day. It's that unique
20:00sensation where your eyes stay wide
20:01open, thinking about whether you'll run
20:03well tomorrow or hoping to do your best
20:05in the relay. Actually, when I was
20:07little, I was a bit good at running,
20:09and in elementary school, I was always
20:11a relay runner for my class. That’s
20:13why every year, I could never really
20:15sleep on the night before the sports
20:17day. Even after growing up, wearing a
20:18suit, and being in a position to move
20:20hundreds of millions or billions of
20:22dollars at a bank, what I feel the
20:23night before the FOMC is almost the
20:25same as when I was in elementary school
20:27. I find that quite interesting, if I
20:29do say so myself. Well, the difference
20:31might be that if you stumble in a relay
20:32race, you can just laugh it off, but if
20:34you stumble at an FOMC, your boss’s
20:36face will be a different color the next
20:38morning. What’s interesting is that I
20:40wasn’t the only one feeling restless.
20:43The entire investment banking division
20:45at the bank where I worked would have a
20:47change in atmosphere right before an
20:49FOMC. We were usually chatting, but
20:51everyone would go quiet. Even voices on
20:53the phone would get a little lower. No
20:55one would say, "The FOMC is coming up,"
20:57but you could tell everyone was
20:59thinking about it. That unspoken
21:02tension filling the room—even
21:03thinking about it now, I think it was
21:06truly unique. And as for what we did in
21:08practice, we would reduce our positions
21:10. In other words, we reduced the amount
21:12we were betting. We would reduce
21:14everything, including both long and
21:15short positions. The reason we reduced
21:17positions before an FOMC is that we
21:19never knew which way the results would
21:21go. The ironclad rule in the
21:22professional world is never to bet big
21:23on something you don’t understand. If
21:25you reached the day of the event
21:27without reducing, your seniors would
21:28get genuinely angry. They’d get
21:30really mad, asking if you knew what day
21:32it was tomorrow; even if you didn't
21:34reduce your position and actually made
21:36a profit, you’d still get scolded. It
21:38was a world where you weren't praised
21:39for being right, as they'd just say it
21:41was pure luck. So, you’d shrink your
21:43positions and just wait intently. That
21:45time spent waiting with smaller
21:46positions is indescribable. I had done
21:48everything I could. It felt like
21:50waiting for exam results, just left to
21:52see the outcome. I’d self-assessed
21:54and felt confident, but it was out of
21:56my hands. I’d even worry about silly
21:57things, like whether I had forgotten to
21:59write my name on the answer sheet. This
22:01is what I did every single time during
22:03the eight FOMC meetings held each year.
22:05Even now, I wonder how my heart managed
22:07to hold up. And this part is a bit
22:09strange, even to me. I’ve graduated
22:11from being an institutional investor,
22:13and there are no seniors to yell at me
22:15to reduce my positions. I don’t have
22:17to report to anyone, and there are no
22:18meetings the next morning. Yet, I still
22:21watch the FOMC live even now. When the
22:24US is on daylight saving time, the FOMC
22:26results are announced at 3:00 AM Japan
22:29time. Every time, I set my alarm for
22:31this hour, wake up, and sit in front of
22:33my screen. Since it's 4:00 AM when they
22:35aren't on daylight saving time,
22:37thinking 3:00 AM is better already
22:39shows my sense of normalcy is gone, but
22:41honestly, this is physically quite
22:43tough. What's more, a battle begins in
22:45my bed every single time. Another
22:47version of myself appears in my head
22:49while I’m in bed, telling me I
22:51already know it’s a 0.25%rate hike,
22:53so why not just check it in the morning
22:55? So, it tells me to go back to sleep.
22:57Yet, I always end up getting up. Just
22:59before the announcement, there’s a
23:01moment where the stock price figures on
23:03the screen seem to freeze, and the
23:04second the numbers are released,
23:06everything moves at once. I really want
23:08to experience that moment live. In
23:09short, I'm still the type of person who
23:11wants to be standing on the starting
23:13line of the track meet. It’s like I
23:15don’t need to run, but I just want to
23:16hear the sound of the starting pistol
23:18with my own ears. And here’s the part
23:21I want you to hear: 30 minutes after
23:23the FOMC announcement—that's 3:30 AM
23:25Japan time—the Fed Chair’s press
23:28conference begins. In the second half
23:30of the conference, the Chair answers
23:32questions from reporters live. I watch
23:34that until the very end every time, too
23:36. So, what do you think I’m looking
23:38at? Actually, I’m watching the
23:41Chair’s face. I notice if they seem a
23:44bit stiff or nervous today, or if they
23:46seemed to struggle with a certain
23:47question, or when they occasionally
23:49stumble over their words, and in those
23:51moments, I find myself rooting for them
23:53in my heart. But that’s strange,
23:55isn’t it? Cheering on the head of the
23:58world's most influential central bank
24:00from my sofa in Japan—it’s
24:01completely patronizing. And I don’t
24:04have any authority at all. I’m just a
24:06person who happens to be awake late at
24:07night. When I was an active
24:09institutional investor, I would reduce
24:11my positions and wait for the results
24:12like I was waiting for school entrance
24:14exam results, going through emotional
24:16ups and downs. But now, I act like an
24:18observer, thinking things like, "You
24:20spoke well today," and it really is
24:22quite strange. However, the moment I
24:24stop feeling nervous is when things are
24:26most dangerous. When you've been
24:27trading for a long time, you gradually
24:29get used to it. Getting used to it
24:31isn't entirely bad, but the market
24:33tends to bite back precisely when you
24:35think it won't be a big deal this time
24:37either. The reason I keep waking up at
24:393:00 AM is probably because I don't
24:41want to completely let go of that
24:42excitement I felt as an elementary
24:44schooler. It’s a bit embarrassing to
24:46talk about my elementary school days
24:48when I’ve aged so much since then.
24:50Thank you very much for watching until
24:52the very end.

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This page contains the full transcript of 事態が急変しました...。海外機関投資家の不穏の動きにより今後日本株にとんでもないことが起こるかもしれません by イケガミ投資塾【メガバンク出身】, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,735 words across 726 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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