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【常識が崩壊しました】ゴールドとビットコインがこれまでにない動きを見せています — Transcript

by りょうのズボラ投資学┃個別株で資産10倍ch · 3,856 words · 584 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:03I'm Nori from Lazy Investment Studies.
0:05On this channel, I share practical
0:06investment techniques for aiming at a
0:0810x return on assets with individual
0:10stocks while leaving them alone. Today,
0:11I will be explaining gold and Bitcoin,
0:14which are showing unprecedented
0:16movements. Let me start with the
0:17conclusion. Most of you watching this
0:20video don't need to buy gold or Bitcoin
0:22right now. "Wait, isn't Bitcoin rising
0:25again, and isn't now a good time to buy
0:27gold since it's cheaper?" If you
0:29thought that even for a second, you
0:30definitely need to watch until the end.
0:32In both Japan and the U.S., events that
0:35haven't happened in 28 or 31 years are
0:37occurring one after another. Amidst
0:40this, gold and Bitcoin are showing
0:42movements like never before. Why you
0:44don't need to buy them. And for those
0:45who already own them, what should you
0:47do? I will talk in order about how to
0:49think about protecting and steadily
0:51growing your retirement funds. To aim
0:53for a 10x return on your investments,
0:55these are the four things you will
0:56understand today. So, by watching
0:58today's video to the end, you won't
1:01just stop being swayed by news
1:02headlines about gold or Bitcoin; you'll
1:05also find it easier to decide whether
1:07to hold them, and if so, what role they
1:09should play. I’m also giving away a
1:13free "Asset Class Decline Tolerance
1:15Simulation," where you just enter the
1:17amounts of stocks, cash, gold, and
1:19Bitcoin you have to see how much your
1:21total assets would drop if they fell by
1:24the same amount as this time. I will
1:27let you know how to receive it toward
1:28the end of the video, so please be sure
1:30to watch until the end. Let's get
1:32started right away. The first point is
1:36these figures that haven't been seen in
1:38years. On April 31, 2026, Japan and the
1:41U.S. conducted a joint foreign exchange
1:43intervention to buy yen. This is called
1:46a coordinated intervention, where two
1:48countries act in unison to stop the
1:50depreciation of the yen. This is the
1:52first time in about 28 years since 1998
1:55. Next, on September 16, the U.S.
1:57central bank, the FRB, raised interest
2:00rates by 0.25%, didn't they? This
2:02interest rate hike is the first since
2:042023. Furthermore, on September 18th,
2:07the Bank of Japan raised rates by 0.25%
2:10, bringing the policy rate to 1.25%.
2:12This level hasn't been seen in 31 years
2:15. I’m sure those of you who already
2:17have home loans found this to be quite
2:19a personal piece of news. Then, on
2:21September 25th, the U.S. 10-year
2:24Treasury yield climbed to 5.23%. This
2:27is the highest level since 2007. In
2:30other words, both Japan and the U.S.
2:31are currently moving in the direction
2:33of higher interest rates. Behind these
2:35rising rates is the fact that energy
2:37prices are climbing due to the conflict
2:39between the U.S. and Iran. Also, active
2:43capital investment in AI has businesses
2:45borrowing money, which is fueling
2:47inflation through logistics and raw
2:49material costs. And now, for the main
2:53topic. On September 15th, the U.S.
2:55financial media outlet Bloomberg
2:57reported that trades hedging against
2:59currency devaluation have split between
3:02gold and Bitcoin. Amid the same
3:04interest rate hikes, Bitcoin rose while
3:06gold fell. What's more, gold is
3:08actually dropping even at a time when
3:10geopolitical risks—such as war and
3:12conflict—are rising. Furthermore,
3:14Bitcoin climbed by approximately 40%
3:16over the three months from July to
3:18September. This is the largest
3:21three-month gain since the end of 2024.
3:25Let’s look at why this happened.
3:26First, let's talk about Bitcoin.
3:28Bitcoin continued to fall from its peak
3:31in October 2025, dropping below $
3:3460,000 on June 5, 2026. However, it
3:37briefly recovered to the $ 87,000 range
3:39on September 21st. As I mentioned
3:41earlier, that is an increase of about
3:4340%in just three months. So, why did it
3:46rebound so much? There are two main
3:48reasons. The first is the inflow of
3:50funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. An ETF is
3:53a listed fund that can be bought and
3:55sold on a stock exchange, just like a
3:58stock. In the case of a spot Bitcoin
4:00ETF, the underlying asset is the actual
4:02Bitcoin itself. Between August 19th and
4:05September 23rd, approximately 4.6
4:08billion dollars—or about 730 billion
4:11yen—flowed into this ETF. This
4:13recovered the outflows from the first
4:15half of the year, bringing the 2026
4:17daily net flows back into positive
4:19territory. Since ETFs can be traded
4:21freely from brokerage accounts, they
4:23are serving as a gateway for capital
4:25that hadn't touched crypto assets
4:27before. The second factor is buybacks
4:29by short sellers. In Bitcoin trading,
4:31there is a certain number of people who
4:33bet on price drops by selling in
4:35advance. If the price goes down, they
4:36buy it back cheaply, and the difference
4:38becomes their return. However, if the
4:40price rises instead, their losses grow
4:43rapidly; that is how the mechanism
4:45works. And when those losses exceed a
4:47certain threshold, the exchange forces
4:49them to buy back their positions. On
4:51August 19th, when the rebound began,
4:53forced buybacks by those betting on a
4:55decline across all crypto assets,
4:58including Bitcoin, reached about 2.7
5:00billion dollars. This is the largest
5:02scale on record since 2021. So, these
5:05buybacks pushed the price up further,
5:07which in turn forced the next group of
5:09people to buy back—creating this kind
5:11of chain reaction. This is also what we
5:14call a "short squeeze." You can imagine
5:16it like people in a crowded train being
5:18pushed from behind, causing those in
5:20front to be pushed out one after
5:21another. It’s a situation where they
5:23are being forced to buy against their
5:25will because they are being squeezed.
5:27However, this is not just a temporary
5:30purchase. There is one more thing I
5:32want to look at, which is the
5:33underlying foundation of this rebound.
5:35On September 15th, the U.S. Senate
5:37rejected the CLARA Act, which would
5:39have established rules for the crypto
5:41asset market. Then, on the 16th, there
5:43was the Fed's interest rate hike.
5:45Immediately after this rejection,
5:47Bitcoin briefly dipped below 75,000
5:49dollars. Even so, despite two days of
5:52bad news for crypto assets, it regained
5:54over 10,000 dollars in about a week.
5:57Next is gold. Gold hit a record high of
6:005,589 dollars per ounce on January 28,
6:032026. One ounce is about 31 grams,
6:06which is roughly the weight of 45 500-
6:09yen coins. So, a palm-sized amount of
6:11gold is worth over 600,000 yen today.
6:14After that, on September 28th, it
6:16briefly dropped to the 4,110 dollar
6:19range. Looking at domestic gold retail
6:22prices including tax, it went from
6:2526,525 yen per gram on August 25th to
6:2823,915 yen on September 28th. So
6:31that’s a drop of about 10 percent in
6:33just one month. There are two reasons
6:35for this as well. The first is rising
6:37interest rates and a stronger dollar.
6:39Gold doesn't generate a single yen in
6:41interest, even if you keep it in a safe
6:43. On the other hand, if you hold US
6:45Treasury bonds, you get interest in the
6:475 percent range just by owning them.
6:49For example, if you put 10 million yen
6:51into US Treasuries with a 5.2%yield,
6:54you get 520,000 yen in annual returns
6:56or interest. But if you keep that in
6:58gold, the interest is zero. With a gap
7:01like that, the reason to go out of your
7:03way to own gold fades. Furthermore,
7:06gold is priced in dollars. So, when the
7:09dollar gets stronger, gold becomes more
7:11expensive for those holding other
7:13currencies, making it harder to buy.
7:15The second reason is that "safe-haven
7:17gold" didn't hold up. The idea of "
7:19safe-haven gold" is the traditional
7:21view that gold is bought as a risk
7:24hedge during wars or crises. On
7:26September 28th, the US rejected Iran's
7:28proposal regarding the reopening of the
7:31Strait of Hormuz. Normally, this is a
7:33moment when geopolitical risk rises, so
7:35it's a scenario where gold is bought.
7:37However, the price of Brent crude, a
7:40benchmark for oil, rose to about 105
7:42dollars a barrel, and that rise in oil
7:44prices tends to drive up inflation,
7:46right? And as inflation rises, further
7:49interest rate hikes become a concern.
7:51When rate hikes are anticipated, gold,
7:53which earns no interest, loses its
7:55appeal and becomes easier to sell;
7:57that’s the trend. So, in this
7:59particular instance, this trend was the
8:01dominant factor. So, this geopolitical
8:04risk impacts crude oil, which affects
8:07inflation, leading to interest rate
8:09hike concerns, which in turn has had an
8:11effect on gold. Now, the question is
8:16whether now is the time to buy gold and
8:18Bitcoin, so let's first look at where
8:20their prices currently stand. Looking
8:23at the last month, Bitcoin is up about
8:2513%. Gold is down about 3%in dollars
8:29and about 5%in yen. Over the past month
8:32, gold has seen a slight decline.
8:34However, compared to their record highs
8:37, Bitcoin is down about 31%, while gold
8:40is down about 25%in dollars and about
8:4322%in yen. In other words, you can see
8:45that both have undergone a deep
8:47correction from their peaks. Compared
8:49to a year ago, Bitcoin is down about 28
8:52%. Gold is up about 8%in dollars. In
8:55Japanese yen, it is up about 16%. The
8:59reason gold is up more in yen is that
9:01the yen's depreciation over the past
9:03year has been factored in. So, can we
9:06rest easy if the current headwinds
9:08subside? Let's look at cases where
9:11prices could fall further. First,
9:13Bitcoin. If the flow of funds into ETFs
9:17stops abruptly and the temporary buying
9:19pressure from short covering fades,
9:21prices could fall further. Next, gold.
9:25If the Fed raises rates further at the
9:27October 27th-28th meeting, and talks
9:29between the US and Iran stall, causing
9:32oil prices to stay high. In such a
9:34scenario, gold prices could fall even
9:36further. Although a rate hike in
9:38October was expected with about 70%
9:41probability at the end of September,
9:43that probability dropped to about 20%
9:45after US employment data came in below
9:48expectations on October 2nd. However,
9:5116 out of the 18 Fed board members
9:53still anticipate another rate hike this
9:56year. So, the talk of interest rate
9:58hikes hasn't completely disappeared.
10:00Finally, a common risk for both is the
10:02appreciation of the yen. If the yen
10:03strengthens, the yen-denominated price
10:05will naturally drop by the amount of
10:06the exchange rate movement. On the
10:08other hand, there are factors that
10:09could drive it up. Gold is underpinned
10:11by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy. In
10:15August, the U.S. Treasury announced an
10:17increase in bond buybacks, sparking
10:19fears that the value of the dollar
10:21would be diluted. As shown in the table
10:24earlier, it is still higher compared to
10:26a year ago. As I mentioned, even with a
10:28series of bad news, Bitcoin's price
10:30recovered immediately. Now, as for how
10:33I personally view gold and Bitcoin
10:36right now, this part is my honest
10:38opinion and my own subjective view. I
10:41will be a bit harsh, but this is
10:42something those who are serious about
10:44growing their assets need to hear.
10:47First, regarding gold: just ignore it
10:49for now. There is absolutely no need to
10:52panic and buy or sell based on current
10:55price movements. Of course, gold
10:57remains a safe, tangible asset; that
10:59hasn't changed. It’s just that it’s
11:02struggling to rise right now as a major
11:04reaction to the strong market that
11:06lasted from 2023 through the first half
11:08of 2026. So, I honestly think it's
11:11complete nonsense to get emotional over
11:13the movements of the last few weeks or
11:15months. Next, regarding Bitcoin, I
11:19believe it is still very much in a
11:21state of speculation at this stage.
11:24Meaning it’s not an investment.
11:26Investing is the act of placing money
11:28into something that grows in value and
11:30waiting for that value to increase.
11:33Conversely, speculation is betting on
11:35the price movement itself to profit
11:37from the difference. Some might think
11:40that if it’s speculation, it’s fine
11:43to buy, but even if you view it as
11:44speculation, I honestly think you
11:46should pass for now. But if you are
11:49thinking of buying it as an investment,
11:51my stance that you absolutely should
11:53not buy it remains unchanged. Its
11:56utility is still nowhere near high
11:57enough, and it is not yet established
12:00as infrastructure. But doesn't Trump or
12:03Elon Musk say they're actually
12:05investing in Bitcoin?
12:07>> Ah, well, I suppose so. Looking at that
12:12, people say you shouldn't buy or touch
12:13crypto, but I think the reality is
12:15different. Honestly, it comes down to
12:21their positions. Trump pushing Bitcoin
12:27is a political move to make the country
12:29a crypto powerhouse, so that background
12:31is definitely a factor. That doesn't
12:39mean it has no future, but basically,
12:40we honestly don't know how it will play
12:42out. I do think there's a future where
12:49crypto is needed as infrastructure,
12:50serving as a currency other than legal
12:52tender. But whether that will be in a
12:57few years, or 10 or 20 years from now,
12:59nobody knows. Honestly, I’ve never
13:03seen a convenience store or online shop
13:05where you can just pay with Bitcoin,
13:07have you? It’s just not practical yet
13:13, and since it hasn't become actual
13:15infrastructure, Bitcoin itself doesn't
13:17really have any intrinsic value yet.
13:22>> Because in practical terms, it isn't
13:24being treated the same as cash for
13:26everyday transactions. Well, so at this
13:29current stage, the premise is that
13:31it’s not really an investment target
13:33in the first place, which is why I’m
13:35saying it’s not for us. As for
13:38speculation, you might say, "Well,
13:40it’s going up, so what’s the
13:42problem?" but putting your money into
13:45something when you don't really know if
13:47it’ll go up or down is just gambling.
13:51If you’re doing it with the mindset
13:53of gambling, or if you’re staying
13:55within a range where you’d be fine
13:57even if it hits zero, then I think you
13:59should do whatever you want. But if you
14:02have, say, 10 million yen in savings,
14:05and you ask if you should dump 20%or 30
14:07%of that into Bitcoin, I honestly would
14:10advise against it. If it’s just a few
14:13percent, and you’re okay with losing
14:15it, thinking it’s a bonus if it
14:17actually takes off, then I guess
14:19that’s fine. That’s not even
14:22speculation; it’s really just
14:24gambling, like an entertainment thing.
14:28If you think about it that way, you can
14:30basically just pass on it. If you still
14:34want to do it, you should at least
14:36recognize that you’re doing something
14:38closer to gambling than actual
14:40investing or speculation. However, in
14:44the medium to long term, with things
14:46like ETFs and various changes in how
14:49it's handled in financial markets,
14:51along with potential tax reforms, I
14:53think once those things are settled, it
14:55will finally enter the phase of being a
14:57legitimate speculation target. But
15:01since it hasn't even reached that phase
15:03yet, I think it’s best to just pass
15:05on it for now. I understand. Thank you
15:07very much. Yes. Then, in light of the
15:11current stock market, should we hold
15:13gold or Bitcoin as part of our
15:15portfolio, or is it better not to? The
15:17conclusion, as I've mentioned many
15:19times before, is that honestly, I think
15:21it's fine to just skip it for now. With
15:23stocks, a company generates profit,
15:24which returns to you as dividends or
15:26through company growth. On the other
15:28hand, gold and Bitcoin do not provide
15:30any interest or dividends just by
15:32holding them. Therefore, whether your
15:34assets increase depends solely on
15:35whether the price goes up. Given that,
15:37those who should buy gold or Bitcoin in
15:39the current market are people who have
15:41already finished building their assets
15:43and don't intend to increase them any
15:45further. If your goal is protection
15:48rather than growth, then gold, a
15:50reliable physical asset, fits that
15:52purpose. Conversely, those who should
15:55not buy them include almost everyone
15:57watching this video right now to learn
15:59about investing. The fact that you are
16:03watching this video up to this point
16:05means you are undoubtedly interested in
16:06investing. And since you are currently
16:10interested in investing, I believe the
16:12majority of you want to grow your
16:14assets. If so, neither gold, which is
16:18too defensive, nor Bitcoin, which is
16:20still highly volatile and more like
16:22speculation or gambling, are good
16:25choices. But once you reach your 50s,
16:27don't you think the desire to protect
16:29your assets becomes stronger than the
16:31desire to grow them?
16:32>> Ah, well, I think that's true. As you
16:34get older—in your 50s, 60s, or 70 s
16:36—you tend to become more conservative
16:39and focus on protection. I think that's
16:41perfectly fine, but I honestly believe
16:43it's a matter of balance; so, say a
16:44person in their 50s wants to protect
16:46their assets. They protect them. And
16:48they can maintain them. If that's the
16:50case, couldn't they just hold cash, or
16:52if they want to at least increase them
16:54a little to keep up with inflation? If
16:56that's the case, then maybe they should
16:58just hold bonds, for example. And gold
17:01can also be an option; so, if your
17:03priority is definitely protection, then
17:05gold can certainly be an option. So, as
17:08I mentioned in the premise of this
17:10video, if your goal is to grow your
17:12assets, gold and Bitcoin simply aren't
17:15the right fit; if you want more
17:17reliable growth, they just don't match
17:19that goal. Some people in their 50s
17:21feel they need to keep growing their
17:23wealth, and there are even people in
17:25their 70s who still want to invest and
17:27continue building. That really comes
17:29down to personal preference or a
17:30difference in stance, so I think people
17:32should just be free to do what they
17:34want. But honestly, my honest take is:
17:37can you really say you've built up
17:39enough assets that you don't need to
17:41grow them anymore, and that just
17:42maintaining or protecting them is
17:44enough? Do you have enough assets to be
17:49completely satisfied, live without any
17:51hardship just by keeping what you have,
17:53and leave a solid inheritance for your
17:55children and grandchildren? When you
17:59talk about having, say, 500 million yen
18:02, I think for most people, that's not
18:04actually the case. So, I really want
18:07people to be honest with themselves
18:09about that. If you're only trying to "
18:12protect" your assets because you're
18:14vaguely afraid, well...That will only
18:16narrow your options and make you poorer
18:18, so I really hope you think seriously
18:20about how to break through that,
18:22because at the end of the day, it's
18:24your own life. If you're in your 80s or
18:2890s, I can honestly understand that
18:30kind of mindset, and I'd think, "Yeah,
18:33that makes sense." But honestly, I
18:37think it's a bit problematic if you're
18:39in your 50s or 60s and have that
18:41mindset. That's how I honestly feel,
18:43deep down. I guess that's about it.
18:45>> Thank you very much.
18:46>> Yes. Especially with Bitcoin, please
18:48make sure to look at the magnitude of
18:50price fluctuations in terms of actual
18:51money. Let’s say you have 10 million
18:53yen in assets, and you put 1 million of
18:55that into coins. From its peak in
18:57October 2025 to falling below $ 60,000
18:59in June 2026, Bitcoin lost more than
19:02half its value. If you had 1 million
19:04yen, it would have dropped below
19:06500,000 yen. That means more than 5%of
19:08your total assets could have vanished
19:10in less than a year. So, whether you're
19:13looking to grow your assets or just
19:15don't want to lose any, I honestly
19:17don't think this level of volatility
19:18fits those goals. By the way, if you
19:22already own assets like gold or Bitcoin
19:24, please let me know your purpose in
19:26the comments. Whether you hold them for
19:30protection or to aim for capital gains,
19:32I’d really like to know how you're
19:33actually using them, so your comments
19:35would be very helpful. So please, I’d
19:38love to see your comments. Now, finally
19:43, I’ll share three actions you can
19:45take starting today and how to receive
19:47your free gift. First, let's look at
19:48interest rates. As long as rates are
19:50high, non-interest-bearing assets like
19:52gold and Bitcoin will likely continue
19:54to face headwinds. So, whether there
19:56will be another rate hike within the
19:57year is the next big hurdle. Also,
19:59domestically, the rules for crypto
20:01assets are about to change. In July
20:042026, a legal amendment was passed to
20:07treat crypto assets as financial
20:09products, with implementation expected
20:11in 2027. Preparations are also underway
20:15to lift the ban on crypto asset ETFs.
20:18Taxes, currently subject to a maximum
20:2055%comprehensive tax rate, are already
20:22set to move to a separate taxation
20:24system of around 20%, similar to stocks
20:27. Comprehensive taxation is a system
20:28where the tax rate is determined by
20:30combining it with other income, such as
20:32your salary. This is expected to take
20:34effect starting in January 2028. So,
20:36once these rules are in place, I think
20:38Bitcoin will become much easier to buy.
20:41However, whether that actually causes
20:43the price to go up is a different story
20:44. Next, these are the four things you
20:46should keep an eye on. Decide for
20:49yourself whether to hold gold or
20:50Bitcoin, and what role they will play,
20:52firmly before the prices start moving.
20:55Those who have a plan won't be swayed
20:57by changes in interest rates or market
20:59fluctuations when building their
21:00retirement fund. To do that, there are
21:02three things you should start doing now
21:03. First, the first step. List your
21:06assets: stocks, investment trusts, cash
21:08, gold, and crypto assets. Try writing
21:10down the amounts for these categories.
21:12Rough estimates are perfectly fine.
21:15Second, briefly write down your reason
21:17for owning—or planning to buy—gold
21:19or crypto assets. If your reason is
21:23clear, whether it's for asset
21:25protection or capital gains, you won't
21:27panic-sell when prices fluctuate.
21:29Finally, the third step. That said, I
21:32know it can be difficult to calculate
21:34how much you'd lose if each asset class
21:36were to drop in value. So, I’ve
21:41created an "Asset Class Drawdown
21:43Simulation" sheet where you just enter
21:45your amounts for stocks, cash, gold,
21:47and Bitcoin to see your total asset
21:49allocation and potential losses. "Asset
21:55class" refers to the way you categorize
21:57your holdings, like stocks, cash, or
22:00gold. I’m offering this for free on
22:02my official LINE account. If you're
22:04watching on TV, scan this QR code with
22:06your smartphone. If you're watching on
22:10a smartphone or tablet, check the
22:12comments section to register on LINE,
22:13get your copy now, and prepare so you
22:15aren't swayed by gold or Bitcoin news.
22:19Build a state where you can invest with
22:21confidence and hold onto your assets.
22:24Thank you for watching the video until
22:25the end. Thanks for watching the video.
22:29Please hit the like button and
22:31subscribe to the channel. Feel free to
22:33leave comments with any insights or
22:34questions you may have. I’ll be sure
22:37to ask Rio-san all your questions on
22:39your behalf here on YouTube. I’ll see
22:42you all in the next video.

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This page contains the full transcript of 【常識が崩壊しました】ゴールドとビットコインがこれまでにない動きを見せています by りょうのズボラ投資学┃個別株で資産10倍ch, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 3,856 words across 584 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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