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ИИ навсегда изменил мир. Оскар Хартманн о том, как остаться востребованным — Transcript

by Даниил Смирнов · 14,357 words · 2,231 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Billions of people who create zero
0:02value for society. Zero. One university
0:05, 100 people a year, creates 25%of all
0:08new value that exists. How can that be?
0:11What are they teaching there?
0:12What did he answer?
0:13He didn't know either. You want to have
0:16your cake and eat it too. And as soon
0:18as technologies appear that make
0:20certain things easy, it immediately
0:21loses its value. That is the new zero.
0:23Now IQ, IQ thinking, is also going to
0:25be nullified. But what about being in
0:28the right place at the right time?
0:30That’s unrealistic. That’s
0:31unrealistic. Just unrealistic. They
0:33will be worth tens of trillions and
0:35tens of trillions; that’s more than
0:36some states. These will be the people
0:39who know how to control their behavior.
0:42Period.
0:47Oscar.
0:48Bro-fist.
0:49Bro-fist. Listen, I want to explore a
0:51non-obvious topic with you today.
0:52Demographic crises. The era of
0:54cryptocurrencies, the era of neural
0:56networks, more and more challenges,
0:58right?
0:59The world landscape is changing, more
1:01and more turbulence, instability,
1:02depression among the youth, and so on.
1:04I just want to figure it out with you a
1:06little bit. Moreover, I want to keep it
1:07in the framework of a practical
1:08dialogue. You recently returned from
1:10the States, like, you know, a visionary
1:12country in technology and so on.
1:14I’m flying back there again now.
1:15You’re flying back there again, right
1:16? So we’re going to take all the
1:17insights you brought back. In this new
1:20turbulent world, you know, 2 years ago
1:21Sasha Sokolovsky had a podcast that is
1:23still his number one on the channel,
1:25where he and Margulan Seisembayev
1:27discussed the laws of money, and the
1:28red thread through the dialogue—the
1:30key story, so to speak—was that with
1:32honest labor you won't build stone
1:34chambers, right? That, you know, you
1:36don't just need to work hard, but also
1:37take risks, take responsibility, and so
1:39on. The world is moving even further
1:48into the digital economy and now, not
1:50quite, although it would seem I'm a
1:51young guy, I'm 24 years old, even I am
1:53starting to struggle a little to keep
1:54up with what's happening. Is the world
1:56turbulent right now?
1:57Yes. It's a big question, because it
2:01seems like it is, but it only seems
2:03that way because people consume 13
2:05hours of screen time a day, and the
2:07average content length is dropping,
2:10dropping, dropping to 40 seconds. So,
2:13divide 13 hours by 40 seconds, and you
2:15get the number of how many different
2:17pieces of content a person feeds into
2:19their brain per day. Yes. And before,
2:21when it seemed to us, when we lived in
2:23Kazakhstan on the steppe and the world
2:25seemed non-turbulent, actually many
2:27more bad events were happening. We just
2:29didn't know about them. We ran barefoot
2:30through the field. We had a motorcycle
2:333 km in one direction, a river 1 km in
2:35the other. Our world used to be very
2:37small. Yes. Now, every piece of news
2:39reaches us. Wherever some trash happens
2:42in the world, we find out about it. Yes
2:44. That's why I have a big question. Is
2:47the world really as turbulent as it
2:50seems to us? The second question
2:53concerns work, labor, its value, and so
2:56on. There are simply universal rules;
2:58when the world is very turbulent,
3:00it’s good to rely on fundamental
3:02principles. Fundamental principles, yes
3:04. For example, a fundamental principle:
3:06to earn money, you need to create value
3:08. In crypto, they often try to break
3:11this principle; it works temporarily,
3:13yes, but then it fails. The fundamental
3:16principle of human nature is that
3:18people value the effort and labor of
3:20another person. The fact that you are
3:24working right now, I value it, because
3:26you took the time and prepared; things
3:29that don't require labor are not valued
3:31. Look, even 3 years ago, an employee
3:33would send you great information,
3:35having figured something out, and
3:36you’d say: "Cool, well done, that's
3:38great." Now an employee sends you a
3:40similar analysis, and you say: "Well,
3:41you just put that into ChatGPT." So
3:43what? Well, sometimes it's even obvious
3:45, the person sends you three pages of
3:47information, and you say: "Bro, I could
3:48have put that into ChatGPT myself.""
3:52At least you could have..." You see,
3:54employees often critique each other,
3:56saying, "Oh, that's ChatGPT, that's
3:58ChatGPT," and the result, even if it's
3:59good, isn't valued; it's not your
4:01result anymore. It seems like before,
4:04you would have spent 3 days on it and
4:05sent it over, and it would have been
4:07valued; now you send the same thing.
4:09It’s not valued because now everyone
4:11has this tool, right? And it’s the
4:13same with everything, like when a
4:14person plays the violin, for example.
4:16Everyone knows that playing the violin
4:18is hard work, a lot of practice. That
4:20is why people always value another
4:22person who plays the violin or the
4:23piano. Even when computers can play
4:26music better, people are ready to pay
4:28and so on. People are ready. Right now,
4:30for example, one of the trends
4:31developing very rapidly is live
4:33entertainment. Live concerts, just that
4:36.
4:36Especially after COVID, it’s...
4:38Record numbers for tickets and
4:40everything; people pay money to see a
4:42person live who gives it their all,
4:45tries hard, and puts on a show. Wow,
4:48that is valued. Therefore, a
4:49fundamental principle. Look, if you
4:51submit work where you haven’t put in
4:53the effort, you didn't really try, even
4:55if the result seemed okay—you found
4:57some life hack or something—as soon
4:59as people know it's a hack, it’s
5:01valued less. That’s a fundamental
5:03principle. We always...that won't go
5:05anywhere. A person needs another person
5:07more than anything. And people value...
5:09They value it. In the past, you could
5:11take a shovel and work from dawn to
5:12dusk, and people valued that. Now, it's
5:15not valued anymore because you can just
5:17order equipment, right? Like, that kind
5:19of labor isn't valued the same way. So,
5:21what kind of labor is valued most today
5:23? It’s not all about the shovel from
5:25dawn to dusk anymore—though in some
5:26places, you still need to clear sewers
5:28and do a bunch of other manual work,
5:29yes. But what kind of labor is mostly
5:31valued now?
5:31Mental labor, the answer comes to mind
5:33immediately.
5:33Yes, that’s the first thing. It’s
5:34the ability to focus. Uh-huh. When a
5:37person sets aside distractions and
5:39focuses on something for a certain
5:41number of hours, that is valued. Yes.
5:44For example, bloggers now post videos
5:46saying, "I spent 4 hours fully breaking
5:48down this topic for you.""I put in the
5:50effort, spent 3 weeks on it," and then
5:52they post. And that is valued because
5:54the person focused, and that represents
5:57effort. Losing focus is easy; staying
5:59focused is hard. That's why I see among
6:03young people that those who can focus,
6:05hold their attention on something for a
6:07period of time, they advance in their
6:10careers very quickly—simply faster
6:12than those who cannot focus. The second
6:15is decision-making. Making decisions,
6:17yes, because there is so much
6:19information now, and so on and so forth
6:20. Decision-making, responsibility, and
6:23so many decisions
6:24in life just turn out that way—that's
6:26how it happened. A huge number of our
6:27decisions aren't black and white. It's
6:30not like this is definitely right and
6:31that is definitely wrong. Most of the
6:34time, even if artificial intelligence
6:36has an IQ of 180, then 200, then 250,
6:38it doesn't matter. Yes, you'll have
6:41better information, but the information
6:43will still end with options: option one
6:46is to do nothing, option two has a 5%
6:48chance of a bad outcome and 70%chance
6:50of a good one, and so on. And option
6:53three has, say, a 15%chance of a bad
6:55outcome and a 100%chance of a good one.
6:57And in the end, you don't have an
7:00obvious choice.
7:01It’s almost like we're in some kind
7:02of matrix.
7:03Yeah? And almost everything in life is
7:04like that. Almost everything in life is
7:06like that. There obviously isn't a
7:07single correct solution, no. It’s not
7:09even like poker. In poker, you can at
7:11least calculate the probability, right,
7:12and depending on how many chips you
7:13have, where things stand, and so on,
7:14you can determine what’s correct
7:15right there. But in life, it's not even
7:17like that, no. It’s just that there
7:20are so many situations where a person
7:23—and this is also highly valued, of
7:25course—a person who makes a decision,
7:28someone who says: "I had a health
7:30situation, AI gave me three options,
7:32and three doctors had completely
7:34opposing opinions, completely, right,
7:37how am I supposed to decide?" No, there
7:40is no correct solution. No, it just
7:43depends on how much risk you're willing
7:44to take, how much pain you're willing
7:46to endure, well, you know, that sort of
7:47thing. And one of the doctors said: "
7:52Oscar, honestly, if my son were in your
7:55place, I would go that way." And he
7:58gave me the confidence that he was, in
8:01a way, taking responsibility; he said:
8:03"Yes, there was a risk, the risk was
8:05higher, yes, the risk is higher." But
8:07he said—he’s a surgeon—and he
8:10said: "Yes, I am ready."
8:11So, ChatGPT is okay, but I provide a
8:13guarantee.
8:13Yes, here are the doctors and ChatGPT.
8:15It turns out that what is valued very
8:16highly in the world right now is
8:18courage, decisiveness, the ability to
8:19make decisions, the ability to focus,
8:21the ability to work hard and strive for
8:23something. That is very, very valuable.
8:26It is very valuable. And I'll say more:
8:29the university I graduated from in
8:31Germany created 25%of all unicorns in
8:34Germany, despite only having 100
8:37graduates per year. In a country with
8:4085 million people, one university, 100
8:42people a year—it creates 25%of all
8:44the new value that exists. How can that
8:47be? What on earth do they teach there?
8:49What kind of subjects are those? The
8:51only selection system this university
8:53uses is picking by diligence, by the
8:56willingness to work hard, to sit your
8:58butt down and go through a difficult
9:01obstacle course. It doesn't matter at
9:03all what is in that obstacle course. It
9:05doesn't matter that it's difficult.
9:07Push-ups, I don't know, doing 30
9:09pull-ups, or memorizing 100 words, or
9:11whatever is hard. There are things that
9:14are hard to do. And as soon as
9:15technologies appear that make certain
9:16things easy, it immediately loses its
9:18value. This is the new zero. It’s
9:20just the new zero. Now about ChatGPT,
9:22if you aren't using it, you should at
9:24least give it a try. But if you do use
9:26it, well, you don't really get any
9:27extra points for that. I mean, right
9:30now you can use it better than others,
9:32for now, you can get a slight edge,
9:34figure it out, but de facto, that's how
9:36I see it. Accordingly, this saying is
9:41still true, and it will always be true.
9:44And even without the "no-code" stuff.
9:46No, that’s if you’re doing
9:47something stupid, if you’re making
9:49something nobody needs, you can work as
9:51hard as you want. Friends, I highly
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11:22international payments. Look, our
11:27viewer will ask you a reasonable
11:28question: where do you find the balance
11:30? I mean, okay, Oscar, we’ve gone
11:32into fundamental truths, right,
11:33understandable to everyone. Value,
11:35diligence, consistency, and so on,
11:36right? I mean, remember in that podcast
11:38you said: "Don't do it like that,"
11:39right? I mean, let’s,
11:40right?
11:41But at the same time, it’s important
11:43not to miss certain things, keep track
11:44of trends, follow the economy, ChatGPT,
11:46updates, stay in the loop, look around,
11:48and search for those very business
11:50models, and so on. And where can one
11:51actually find any, well, any kind of
11:53balance here? Because if you notice,
11:55all our content on the internet right
11:57now is built on the FOMO effect.
11:58You're afraid of missing out on
11:59something, right? Even your example
12:01about someone sitting down for two
12:03weeks, studying some material and
12:04putting out a video—people watch it
12:06so they don't miss out on what could
12:08save them time.
12:08Look, this is also, by the way, an
12:10important thing for the decision-making
12:12process. The absence, yes. You can just
12:14say, yeah, right now many people in
12:16dating, for instance, when they look
12:18for partners, everything is about
12:19choices, everyone lives in big cities.
12:22How was it back in the village? You had
12:23Anya, Olya, or Sveta, and that was it,
12:25right? Now, in a big city, everyone has
12:27everything, a million options, yeah,
12:28you can swipe left and right in apps
12:30your whole life. And what happens in
12:31the end? People end up alone more often
12:33than before because they can't make a
12:35decision. They can't. This, this is how
12:38the absence of FOMO works: if I made a
12:40decision for this, then I am giving up
12:42that. And this inability to give
12:45something up leads to me seeing a huge
12:46number of guys, and girls too. Girls
12:48are the same. They can't, because any
12:51choice you make deprives you of other
12:53choices. And the same FOMO appears,
12:55right? You want to have your cake and
12:59eat it too, you know? And this is the
13:02main problem. This is the most
13:03important problem. People now want this
13:06and that. They want to eat the cake and
13:08lose weight, eat the cake and still
13:09have it. People want both this and that
13:11. And they can't make a decision: "I
13:13want this, yes, I want, oh, I want, I
13:15want to travel constantly. And I want a
13:17big business too, of course, I want
13:18that too." And this, I want this too.
13:20And I want this too, bro, you know.
13:23And what's more, role models appear,
13:25people come along and say in the media:
13:27"It worked out for me, I'm just sitting
13:29here in total ease."
13:30Yes. But that is not proof. If you
13:32think scientifically, you say: "Yes,
13:34what is it, you are looking for the
13:36truth,
13:37yes,
13:37the law is, if you take it, there is a
13:39certain distribution of people, yes, we
13:40are not in a black-and-white world, but
13:42we are on a spectrum." There’s a
13:44distribution of people, right? For
13:45example, based on diligence and
13:47earnings, there’s generally a
13:48correlation there. There’s always an
13:49outlier who did the least amount of
13:51work but earned a lot. You have some
13:53sort of correlation, and then there’s
13:55one point here—didn't work at all,
13:56but earned a lot, right? Is that one
13:58point, or two points, or ten points,
14:00right? That doesn't prove anything.
14:02Well, those points are often on
14:03Instagram and such, they can be very
14:05visible, like an image; back in the day
14:06, those were rock stars. Rock stars
14:08earned a lot, lots of women, lots of
14:10fame, right? How many people tried to
14:12become a rock star, and how many
14:13actually did? And how many rock stars
14:15can we even recall off the top of our
14:16heads now, right? Then there were
14:18rappers, right? And now it’s bloggers
14:21, or whatever, and the thing is, the
14:23world loves a circus. The world loves
14:26something flashy or something unusual.
14:28The world loves a circus, something
14:30that stands out from the average. And
14:33that’s why we pay so much attention
14:34to these outlier points. But you have
14:36to understand, it’s just a percentage
14:38. Look, a girl goes on Only
14:40Fans,
14:41right, and she says, "I saw this girl
14:43who made 50 million dollars." First of
14:45all, what is that 50 million? It could
14:47be GMV, right? She earned some millions
14:49of dollars on OnlyFans by working,
14:51producing only like six pieces of
14:53content a week. Yeah, she has to
14:55understand. Oh, let me look at all the
14:58statistics for my expected income if I
15:00do this: 100 dollars. 100 dollars a
15:03month, right? That is the most probable
15:06outcome. Therefore, if you don’t
15:08think that way, if you don’t think
15:10scientifically, if you base your
15:11worldview on outliers, your map won't
15:13match reality. You’ll go through life
15:15being delusional, right? You’ll
15:17constantly hit your head; you think
15:19it’s one way, but you get another,
15:21right? That’s a big problem. It’s a
15:24big problem because social media really
15:27shapes this...well, it’s basically
15:30build a big company and live, or the
15:32contradiction. It’s either one or the
15:34other. Either you alternate,
15:36right? Either you alternate, right? You
15:38say, "Okay, from 25 to 35 I’m going
15:40full throttle, but then from 35 to some
15:42other age, I’ll live differently." Do
15:44you have at least some kind of logic in
15:46your actions when you say: "I’ll live
15:48like no one else for a while, so that
15:50later I can live like no one else can"?
15:52Right? But if you want everything at
15:54once, well, then you have to live in
15:56this illusion, like in a movie, you
15:58know, in different universes. And that
16:00is the lack of decision-making and the
16:02ability to truly say no. Because when
16:04we lived before, we didn't know, we
16:07only had one option. Wherever you lived
16:10, in a village or a small town, you
16:11basically had one or two options. We
16:12accepted those options; we didn't know
16:14about others. Today, the blessing and
16:16the curse of our time is that everyone
16:18knows about everything. Everyone knows
16:20all the options—that this one exists,
16:22and that one, and this, and that, and
16:24so on. And now, knowing all the options
16:27, people have to actively say no. I say
16:29: "I choose this, and I dedicate a
16:31certain part of my life to it.""And
16:33this other thing suffers as a result."
16:39Friends, today we're talking a lot
16:41about—sorry for interrupting.
16:42It’s the light again.
16:44No. Our Google Drive subscription
16:46expired. We can't upload the podcast.
16:48Our payment card isn't going through.
16:49Well, it kind of is. Sort of. So,
16:53friends, it's like this every time.
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18:00Listen, Dan, everything okay? While you
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18:26step back a bit. Take the image of
18:28Oskar Hartmann in Kazakhstan, who has
18:30two options and has to choose. Then
18:32there’s your average zoomer in Moscow
18:34who’s watching Telegram, 50 channels,
18:36news every second, and so on. How do we
18:39find a balance here, let's imagine.
18:40Let’s even start with the basics,
18:41using my example. I’m in Moscow,
18:43trying to build capital. I realize
18:44it’s harder for me with money, so I
18:46focus more on media capital to
18:47eventually find financial capital,
18:48among other things. So where and what
18:50should someone like me, a young guy in
18:53Moscow, start from? How do I not get
18:55stuck in an endless stream of world
18:57news? And how do I not get lost,
19:00actually spot opportunities, and what
19:03should I base it on?
19:07Well, that’s a very good question.
19:10First, I would really try to focus on
19:14comparing reality with reality, not my
19:18current reality with some fantasy. Yeah
19:23,
19:23that’s a good one. Accordingly, I
19:24think the best thing a young person can
19:27do is, until a certain age, try almost
19:30everything; try it in reality, because
19:32by trying everything, you can start
19:35comparing reality with reality.
19:37Yeah, sorry. So I don't need to think
19:38about the fact that Zuckerberg had
19:39already founded Facebook at that age?
19:41Yes, that’s like
19:42you need to, look, precise thinking
19:44wins. Precise, look, mistaken—precise
19:47thinking. If you think correctly and
19:49reality, the laws of physics, align
19:51with your thinking, your life will
19:53always be better.
19:54So not rose-colored castles, but
19:55relevant ones. Got it. That’s precise
19:57thinking. When you make a decision
20:00based on flawed thinking—flawed means
20:02it isn't so, but you think it is—then
20:05it isn't. Then your life will just keep
20:08getting worse and worse, right? So that
20:10reality is the hardest part: drawing
20:11your own world map, painting your own
20:13reality. Often when we, well, okay,
20:16need to choose a sport, just try all
20:17the sports, all of them, well, find,
20:19sooner or later, every sport has its
20:21pros and cons. Every single one. Well,
20:23pick one for yourself and accept both
20:25the pros and the cons together. Well,
20:26sort of, yes. You've chosen a sport,
20:28now you need to choose a life partner.
20:29Well, you tried someone, then you chose
20:32, you did it, yes, this option is good.
20:34There are others, they are also good,
20:35with pros and cons, but this option is
20:37good enough, yes, to build a good life.
20:39But the eternal idea that there is some
20:41kind of fantasy out there somewhere is
20:43what keeps you from living. And it’s
20:45the same in business. Someone else is
20:47in a different industry. Like, they are
20:49all making money in crypto right now.
20:50Wait. I would really like, it would be
20:53cool if someone actually showed the
20:55facts: how many people tried and how
20:56many people earned money and how many
20:58didn't. And just really show it, so
21:00okay, this is the most likely outcome,
21:03yes, this is it,
21:04I mean, in the sense of a sociological
21:06sample of everyone who got in, who lost
21:07money and who gained, yes, and not just
21:09some examples that flash before our
21:10eyes,
21:11Of course, because there will always be
21:13an example, like, well, just this
21:15morning I was driving here and read the
21:17news, a company became a unicorn in 6
21:19months, from scratch, in 6 months they
21:21started making 3D data, yes,
21:22accordingly, there is a limited amount
21:24of data in the world. AI companies are
21:27currently facing a data shortage, they
21:29need to create synthetic data.
21:31Accordingly, the company made a model
21:33where the laws of physics are simulated
21:35, and it generates a crazy amount of
21:37data. For example, if a ball flies like
21:38this, it lands there, right? If you
21:40push this water here, it stops there,
21:42right? And this company didn't exist 6
21:47months ago, now it's a unicorn, right?
21:50This is an absolute exception to the
21:52rule. An absolute exception to the rule
21:55, yes. This is if you have the right
21:57idea in the right place, with the right
21:59team. And everything just clicks into
22:01place like that. Just like that. But
22:02that doesn't mean it will stay a
22:04unicorn.
22:04No, I agree that, excuse me, most
22:05likely it’s a person who already has
22:07experience, a background, has people
22:08nearby, yes, has some connections,
22:09contacts, and so on. So there is
22:10already a number of VCs that allow you
22:13to instantly create and build a company
22:15that...
22:16Well, this news is breaking now because
22:17it’s a sensation. The company became
22:19a unicorn in 6 months. They didn’t
22:20even have their furniture delivered yet
22:21. They ordered chairs, they haven't
22:23even arrived, and it's already worth a
22:24billion dollars, right? Now tens of
22:26millions of entrepreneurs read this
22:28news, read it and think: "Why aren't we
22:31there again? Why aren't we there again?
22:33" And here’s a guy three sites back:
22:35"Why am I not there? Why am I not here?
22:37And why am I not there? And I'm not
22:39here, and not there." Well, because
22:40you’re not making decisions in any
22:42direction, right? And the second thing
22:43is, it’s an exception. You will
22:44suffer if you compare yourself to
22:46statistical outliers, yes, you will
22:48suffer forever. Forever, because the
22:50majority of entrepreneurs aren't there
22:53at all, not even close, they spend
22:55decades building just to reach a 10
22:57million dollar business or something.
23:01Therefore, precise thinking means you
23:02are trying to truly understand the
23:04statistics, right? Here is a very
23:07common example. Very common. A person
23:09comes to me and says: "What should I do
23:11now that there is such a big crisis?
23:13Two of my friends have already had
23:14their businesses close." When your
23:16close friends 'businesses close, it
23:18seems to you that this is indeed
23:20reality, right? Because you only have
23:22five friends, and two out of five had
23:24their businesses close. Well, precise
23:27thinking consists of this. Let me see
23:28if my personal experience, these two
23:30data points, aligns with the general
23:32trend, right? Let me look. Okay, this
23:34year, let's say a million businesses
23:35are closing, and it turns out that
23:37every year a million businesses close,
23:39right? A million businesses. And you
23:41look at business closures, right? There
23:43are statistics kept on how many legal
23:44entities have closed, right? It turns
23:46out that every year a million legal
23:48entities close. Even in good years,
23:50when I thought everything was great, a
23:51million businesses were still closing,
23:53right? They just weren't in my
23:54immediate circle. And this is when you
23:57constantly question your own reality
23:59and study it, right, asking good
24:01questions. Just use ChatGPT. I’ve had
24:04this experience. Does this align? Is it
24:06a trend, or...
24:07Yes, a sobriety test? You just sort of,
24:09or you have at least 10 other friends,
24:11you get together, everyone shares their
24:12experience, and it’s already a little
24:13bit better, right? Because if you form
24:15your own worldview alone, based on just
24:17a couple of your experiences and
24:19whatever you’ve seen on Instagram,
24:21you’re going to have a bad life. And
24:23that is the scourge of our time, you
24:24understand? Because it's 13 hours a day
24:28of screen time. 13. And then there's
24:34some single statistic standing up
24:36against that. It's powerless, just
24:38completely powerless. These are
24:40stronger forces, right? On one side you
24:42have accurate thinking, and on the
24:43other, flawed thinking. You’ve just
24:46given yourself such a high dose, right,
24:48that now you think all girls have that
24:50kind of waist and that kind of chest,
24:53because you’ve watched it, right, and
24:55you don't even like real girls anymore
24:57—because somewhere out there, there
25:00are these others, right. I mean,
25:02you’ve watched them like 100,000
25:04times doing whatever it is they do, and
25:06it turns out, it's just easier to
25:08explain using these primitive examples,
25:10actually. That is the main problem. And
25:14it's both good and bad at the same time
25:15; social media made everything
25:16accessible, information, the internet
25:18made everything available, and gave
25:19people this "wow, turns out there’s
25:21so much out there." But this same mass
25:23negatively affects psychology, because
25:25of constant comparison and so on and so
25:28forth. And it's simply an overdose;
25:30frankly, the human brain cannot process
25:32all of this. Well, just, if you're
25:34already...I don't know, I haven't been
25:36on the dating market for 20 years, but
25:38I remember: when you've already swiped
25:40a thousand times...your head is already
25:42swollen, you know? That's it, the head
25:44just can't hold that amount anymore,
25:46right. Consequently, psychology suffers
25:49, mental health suffers, people can't
25:52make decisions, and a huge number of
25:54people mistakenly live in some...
25:58fictional world, right,
25:59a fantasy world, yes, a fantasy world.
26:00We have a global trend where human
26:02psychology can't keep up with
26:03technological progress. Everything is
26:05changing so fast that we just can't
26:07adapt, and there are more and more kids
26:08with tablets and phones from early
26:10childhood, and well, it's unclear what
26:11that will lead to. We simply don't have
26:13the data, right? I mean, we get hooked,
26:16though thank God, when touch-screen
26:18phones came out, for example, I was
26:19about 15 or 16, so I was at least
26:21somewhat mature by then; modern kids
26:23have phones from age 5 or 6, when they
26:25start first grade. No, look, there is
26:28—fine, look, I have to say, it’s
26:31great.
26:31It’s great, because back then there
26:33was so little information, we were just
26:35clueless. We lived in a village and we
26:37didn't know, we were a bit dim, right,
26:39like we thought we played great soccer
26:40because we didn't know how kids could
26:42really play. If you did a backflip in
26:44the village, you were the coolest,
26:46because nobody knew there were people
26:48in the world who could do a double
26:50backflip, or like, do 13 backflips off
26:52a trampoline. People just didn't know,
26:55so they admired whoever was around. But
26:57there is a big downside to that,
26:58because we were just ignorant. We
27:00didn't know how to eat right, we didn't
27:01know how to train, we didn't know
27:03things could be this way, we didn't
27:04know that most things in the world were
27:06made by people just like us. That’s
27:08why social media has great value.
27:09Social media is cool when you expand
27:11your options, oh, you see all the
27:13possibilities, it turns out you can do
27:15this, right, you now know there are so
27:17many places in the world you want to
27:18visit. You see so many different people
27:20, so many different professions, you
27:22just go, wow. And now kids at 10,
27:24they’re like, damn, they know
27:26everything, they know this and that,
27:27it’s cool, really, sometimes when I
27:29talk to 12 to 17-year-olds, I remember
27:31myself at 17. They just, well, their
27:34worldview is so much broader. It’s
27:36cool. But then the overdose begins. The
27:39overdose, yeah, more, more, and even
27:41more. And the effect isn't there
27:42anymore. Now you have to choose, right?
27:45Now you have to choose. And that skill
27:47is still missing, and now, naturally,
27:49artificial intelligence has arrived,
27:51and there’s an even bigger challenge
27:53now, like, with maps, having access to
27:55maps. The part of our brain responsible
27:57for navigation has atrophied, and now
27:59the presence of intelligence, like...
28:00you can connect to intelligence at any
28:02moment, right? Thinking, logic—yes.
28:05You can now just, damn, you have some
28:06task, you don't even have to think for
28:08yourself, you can just think it through
28:10, and it tells you: "here's 1, 2, 3, 4,
28:125," right? Consequently, for the next
28:1415 years, it will atrophy. Logic,
28:17thinking, intelligence, that's 100%. If
28:21you don't train it artificially, if you
28:22don't apply it just like memory, our
28:24memory atrophied earlier, it used to be
28:26valued, now it isn't, so because of
28:28that, intelligence will atrophy as well
28:29. This is a big challenge. So, in
28:31general, it's good, but an overdose is
28:34very bad. It's a challenge. How should
28:36I put it? Look, essentially, all people
28:41will now be sorted by their ability to
28:44refuse. To put down the phone, focus,
28:48make a decision, choose something, go
28:50for it, and, like, say no to everything
28:52else. This will be like how we used to
28:55be sorted before, can you imagine,
28:57there's an outcome, a maximum outcome,
28:59a worst outcome, and there was a normal
29:01distribution, right? And how were the
29:04people who got the maximum outcome
29:06different? They had better information,
29:08better knowledge, right? For example,
29:10we all played football. Everyone,
29:11millions of kids in Germany played
29:13football. Millions. But why do only
29:15thousands become pros? What set them
29:18apart? They got better knowledge. They
29:19knew how things should be, how to train
29:21, how to eat, how to recover. Yes, the
29:23experience. They already had that back
29:25then. We didn't have that in our
29:26village. We simply didn't know. When I
29:29learned everything about sports later
29:31in adulthood, I called my childhood
29:32coach. I said: "Why didn't you tell us?
29:36We simply didn't know." Right. And now
29:39everyone knows.
29:41And what did he answer? He was shocked.
29:42He didn't know either. He didn't know
29:44either, right, so there you go. Look,
29:45now, besides all knowledge being
29:47distributed, you now also have thinking
29:49that is individual to you. Now you can
29:51say: "Yes, I play football, I have this
29:53height, I have this weight, I have
29:54these traits, I'm left-footed, and so
29:56on and so forth." Prepare a
29:58personalized, individual, complete
30:00training plan for me.
30:01Or even ask, do I have a future in
30:03football?
30:03Yes, yes, a future, right. You and you
30:05will get it, yes, you speak based on
30:07what you know about me, what sport
30:08suits me and so on, you throw in the
30:10genetics and everything else, now you
30:12have it all. Look, you now have a plan
30:15to prepare you for pro football, like
30:18it used to be, for only one in a
30:21million. Before, for one in a million,
30:22it was, it was a treasure,
30:23right? You have the most informed coach
30:25in the world.
30:25Yes. Now, well, now everyone has it.
30:28This is the new zero. This is the new
30:30zero.
30:30And so, okay, first knowledge was
30:32distributed, now intelligence, thinking
30:34has been distributed, right?
30:35Accordingly, this is, of course, good
30:36news. It turns out the minimum IQ to
30:38achieve anything will be lower than
30:40before. Yes, if at first information
30:42spread and became available everywhere,
30:44libraries were everywhere, then the
30:46internet appeared everywhere, then
30:47mobile internet appeared, knowledge is
30:49everywhere, but you still need to ask
30:51the question and so on. And people were
30:53distributed largely by IQ, yes, smarter
30:56ones, as it were, worked more correctly
30:58with information, processed it, and so
31:00on. And by other parameters, now IQ,
31:03the IQ of thinking, will also be reset.
31:08Accordingly, the level of IQ, which, if
31:10before, for example, for certain
31:11activities, you needed a minimum of
31:13130-140, will now be 30 points lower,
31:15because you have thinking. Just use it,
31:18yes, just ask it, no matter how stupid
31:20your questions are, right? And that's
31:22it. Now thinking, information, now
31:24there will still be a normal
31:25distribution anyway. There still won't
31:28be,
31:29there will still be the same
31:30distribution again. And who will be on
31:32the right side? These will be the
31:36people who know how to control their
31:38behavior. Period. I'm afraid to
31:42misquote, but the founder of OpenAI,
31:44Sam Altman, either by accident or in
31:46context, threw out a phrase that the
31:48largest tech companies, which will now
31:50be linked to AI and will be visionaries
31:52in this, will finally become new
31:54digital monarchies; that it will exert
31:56such a strong influence on the world
31:58and that they will be worth tens of
32:00trillions, tens of trillions, that it's
32:02more than states. Which are right now,
32:05yes, states, the largest states are
32:06tens of trillions, companies will be
32:08tens of trillions.
32:09For the viewers, just interesting.
32:11Interesting news for context, Meta, you
32:12probably read that they bought a
32:14company for $ 15 billion just to hire
32:16an employee, right? I mean, hiring, yes
32:18, hiring for $ 15 billion. Which
32:20Great case study, by the way. This guy
32:22spotted an opportunity very quickly,
32:24because to train artificial
32:25intelligence—this company is called
32:27Scale—you need data that you can
32:28actually work with. But a lot of the
32:30knowledge that exists in the world is
32:32only inside people's heads; it needs to
32:34be structured. He hired a huge number
32:36of people in the Philippines who know
32:38English and connected them via API to
32:40an American company. This American
32:43company started selling sorted data to
32:45Google for AI training. What was in
32:48that data? They were simply saying what
32:50is a cat and what is a dog. A person
32:52sits there, and they show him 100
32:54pictures, cat-dog, cat-dog. He just
32:56writes: "This is a cat," so that
32:57artificial intelligence learns to
32:59distinguish cats from dogs. They kept
33:01adding this data. Then, like, phone
33:03microphones, and so on—billions of
33:05these. And just imagine how simple that
33:08business is. It would seem, right,
33:10you basically took people
33:12who spend all day describing what they
33:14see in videos and photos. That data is
33:17then—can't Google just hire 10,000
33:19Filipinos themselves to describe things
33:21? Well, the company Scale is how he
33:23started. He just started with that, but
33:25then, and now it's a 30 billion dollar
33:27company, it's only been, well, the
33:29company was founded in 2016.
33:30Accordingly, he started this
33:32significantly earlier than all this
33:33hype and boom and so on. But it's an
33:35interesting case, yes. Well, look,
33:38trillion-dollar companies, but the
33:40thing is, we won't see a world where
33:42everyone walks around with six-pack abs
33:44. We won't see a world where everyone
33:47is rich and has great relationships. We
33:50won't see that because the main thing
33:52remains. Okay, so an agent wrote
33:54everything for you, right? Now you have
33:56even more assistants. They used to say,
33:58"Rich people have assistants," now they
34:00have agents, as many as you want, they
34:01walk for you, do things for you, and so
34:03on. But now you have, you now have an
34:05instruction on how to become a pro
34:07footballer. But now you actually have
34:10to do it.
34:10It might say, for example: don't drink
34:12Coca-Cola, drink only water.
34:14And you need to do that. But not
34:15everyone can actually do it.
34:16And people will be divided not by who
34:19had the instructions and who didn't.
34:21Everyone will have instructions for all
34:24their desires. For all their desires.
34:27How to meet a girl? Here is your
34:29instruction. But then you just have to
34:30go and do it. You have to take your
34:32body, walk over, and say it. And people
34:36won't do that. That is why the layer of
34:39action is now becoming absolutely
34:41decisive. People will simply be divided
34:44into those who did and those who didn't
34:46. There will be no more "Why didn't you
34:47tell me back then?" That won't happen.
34:49That's it. There’s also a cognitive
34:51trap here, where for many it will be
34:52enough to read the instructions, and
34:53they’ll already live out that image
34:54in their heads. Which
34:56no, no. And why does this lead directly
34:58to mental health issues? Now, of course
35:00, depression is rising because before
35:02you didn't know, but now you actually
35:04know, you understand? Now you know. And
35:06before you at least had some kind of
35:08excuse, but now you don't even have an
35:09excuse. Well, damn, you just didn't do
35:11it. You knew everything, but you didn't
35:13walk over, you didn't introduce
35:14yourself.
35:15Look, let me put this in the simplest
35:16language possible. It turns out that
35:18regardless of what is happening in the
35:20world, what technologies emerge, or
35:21where neural networks are heading,
35:22everyone on the planet has access to
35:24all of this. GPT, the paid versions,
35:27cost 45 dollars a month. Everyone has
35:29it. With even the slightest desire, you
35:31stand on par with the rest of the world
35:33,
35:33yes, and from there it's about your
35:35concrete actions in that direction. So
35:36all of this can actually, in a sense—
35:38and I don't mean for this to sound
35:40harsh—be pushed aside as noise.
35:42Social networks are developing, they
35:43are evolving. I’m in the loop, I can
35:44always buy a subscription and use it.
35:45Yes, you can learn anything right now.
35:47Absolutely anything. Just anything at
35:49all, any topic.
35:50And here a philosophical question
35:52arises. This framing: but what about
35:55being in the right place at the right
35:57time? And what about the moment of "
35:59will I make it into that circle or not?
36:01"
36:01Yes. Well, the world is just like that.
36:03The world consists of probabilities,
36:04right, in a way. And within those
36:06probabilities
36:06Do you agree that it plays a role?
36:07Yes, it plays a huge role, a crazy one,
36:09much more than we would like to believe
36:11. Luck plays a massive role. A massive
36:15one. A point where many factors
36:18intersect, which you often cannot
36:20influence.
36:21Yes, I would say factors you can
36:23influence significantly less, right,
36:25but you still have to be in the game if
36:26you want to win; at the very least, you
36:28have to be in the game somewhere, you
36:30understand? Yes. Accordingly, if you
36:32haven't approached a single girl, you
36:34will definitely have zero girls. Well,
36:36for sure, 100%, yes, like, is that
36:37guaranteed, right? It's the same thing
36:39in business. If you have some, well,
36:40there are games, there are different
36:42games, you have to be in the game
36:44somewhere. There are riskier games,
36:45less risky games, there are different
36:46games, yes, you have to be in the game
36:48somewhere. And then you can slightly
36:50influence, uh, luck simply by the
36:52number of attempts. You can do that,
36:55yes, balance it out a bit, just don't
36:56give up; you tried, it didn't work, you
36:58tried, it didn't work, you tried, it
36:59didn't work, yes, well, like, there
37:00really are cases where people were
37:02unlucky 10 times in a row, and that's
37:03hard. It’s hard to explain to that
37:07person that the problem isn't them.
37:10Very hard. It just happened that way.
37:13It just happened that it fell that way
37:15for him specifically.
37:16Well, that's a strange question, maybe.
37:18But do you work with this probability,
37:19or do you just allow for it in terms of
37:21, you know, it's always just chance?
37:23No, of course, you always try to do
37:24your maximum. Look, you always—the
37:26thing is, the world is so
37:27multifactorial, and all these factors
37:28change and their weight changes, so the
37:30only thing left for you is to try your
37:32hardest, to try your absolute best,
37:33right? So, it’s a stoic philosophy,
37:35right?
37:35And then, well, if you've done
37:37everything, you've done everything you
37:39could with what you have, but
37:41unfortunately, no one—if you want a
37:43guarantee that you'll succeed, then,
37:46unfortunately, I can't help you. But if
37:48you, well, really,
37:49we aren't on the same path, right?
37:50No, well, that's unrealistic. You're
37:51just, like, you're just not an
37:52entrepreneur, because it doesn't—well
37:54, there are no such guarantees. Well,
37:56even, people sometimes tell me: "Well,
37:58I have a friend, he has an uncle at
37:59Gazprom, and he just buys screws from
38:01him at 10 times the price." That works
38:03up to a certain point, yes, then things
38:05change.
38:05In my view, that’s not what’s
38:06called entrepreneurship.
38:07Well yes, maybe, it’s, well, you know
38:09, then it ends with arrests or
38:10something else. This—nobody here will
38:13give you a guarantee that you'll
38:15succeed. Nobody. By the way, sports are
38:17very good. Why do I think sports are
38:19good, uh, generally very good for
38:21children, right? Because in sports, you
38:23learn all of this. You strike, no
38:25matter how much you strike, yes, there
38:26is an element of chance, right? Like,
38:28some factor happens, the goalkeeper
38:29stood there, the wind blew that way,
38:31and it’s a beautiful goal, right? 2
38:33mm to the right and you’ve lost the
38:35match, right. And that teaches you,
38:39well, to do everything you can, but
38:42then there are forces above us, right,
38:45and that’s why luck, luck is such an
38:49injustice, because you can do
38:52everything right and still lose. In
38:57this philosophical vein, do you think
38:59luck exists? Because there are concepts
39:01where people say, concepts where people
39:03say that it’s not luck that works,
39:04that luck exists. It’s the sum of the
39:07factors of your life, that like you are
39:08the creator of your own life and
39:09everything in your life supposedly
39:10depends on you. So there is such a view
39:12as well.
39:12I love precise thinking, yes. If there
39:14is some esoteric idea that you
39:16supposedly attract everything yourself
39:17with your, well, it needs, yes, so far
39:19it’s been impossible to demonstrate,
39:20repeat, or do anything with it in a lab
39:22, right? Look, poker, we’re playing
39:26poker. I get two aces, you get 7-2
39:29offsuit. And you go all-in because your
39:33plane is late and you need to leave
39:36soon. I have two aces, you go all-in
39:39pre-flop. I, I 100%have to go all-in.
39:42100%as in you’ve gone all-in.
39:44Your starting probability is about 95%.
39:46Yes.
39:46Yes, I have to. It’s a 100%correct
39:48decision. I cannot not do it. That
39:51would be a stupid decision. We reveal
39:53the cards and there’s a 7-7-2. Or
39:58something like that, right? Uh,
39:59that’s called a good loss. You did
40:02everything right. But you lost. By the
40:05way, actually, if you’re at a table
40:06of experienced people, they’ll tell
40:08you: "Good job, you did the right thing
40:10, you were right." But they’ll tell
40:12you: "No, you’re a fool." Yes, and
40:14right now I gave the most obvious
40:16example. Actually, there are examples
40:17like this, for instance, in the late
40:19stages, it depends on how much is
40:20already in the pot. Well, there are
40:22people who make the wrong decision and
40:24win, and then they are told: "Man, you
40:26can't do that.
40:27You were in a serious tournament. Why
40:29did you do that?"
40:29Yes, you can't do that, yes, in a way.
40:32And the question is, look, very often a
40:33good player arrives at a tournament and
40:35goes out, and three times in a row they
40:37have two aces, two kings, and they are
40:39knocked out. Goodbye. It's not that the
40:43world is exactly the same, but poker is
40:45still a small game under very limited
40:47conditions. Life is millions of times
40:49more complex with more factors and more
40:52vectors, much more. Yeah, you can't
40:54even keep them all in your head. So,
40:57you just have to accept that you can do
40:59everything right and still lose. You
41:02can do everything wrong and win. Yeah,
41:07there are people, for example, who
41:09became co-founders, fought, caused a
41:12scandal, and acted completely
41:14irrational, but the paperwork was done
41:17incorrectly. The company somehow takes
41:20off, this person leaves having worked
41:22there for two weeks, just signed the
41:23papers, and now they need to be bought
41:25out. I don't know, the company grew,
41:27and they have to buy them out for 10
41:28million dollars. They received 10
41:29million dollars having done everything
41:31wrong. That absolutely happens.
41:34Absolutely. The thing is, these people
41:37shout louder than those who do
41:39everything right because it's easier to
41:42listen to them, but if you do that a
41:44thousand times, you'll lose 999 of them
41:47. But these people are often very loud,
41:50they talk more, they're like a circus,
41:52they are more noticeable. And those
41:55people who describe the world more or
41:58less accurately, they don't get views
42:00on YouTube, they say boring things,
42:02they say, well, you know, they say,
42:08like, you need to spend less than you
42:10earn. And people are like, "No, I don't
42:12want to listen to this guy.
42:15I don't want to listen to this guy."
42:17You need to expand your consciousness.
42:18Spend first,
42:20yeah, spend first, live how you want,
42:22then take out loans, and then it will
42:24all come to you.
42:25Okay, let's look at the facts, the
42:26actual data. Well, that's difficult.
42:28Well, the best news is. Good news. All
42:30this data is available. Previously, it
42:32seemed complicated and was hard to
42:34access. Now just ask artificial
42:35intelligence: "Show me the factual data
42:37." Yes, here are the facts, like this
42:39and like that. And keep checking your
42:42map, constantly compare your world map
42:44with reality. Reality will show you
42:46everything anyway, right? Well, mostly,
42:47you know, there are, you know how many
42:50people went into trading,
42:51crypto-trading, and so on, who
42:53explained to me that you can, well,
42:55they all mostly end up doing very
42:57poorly. Well, reality will catch up
43:00with you sooner or later; for example,
43:01you got lucky once, but if you keep
43:02going all-in, sooner or later,
43:04Yeah, the problem here is that you
43:06develop a skill for this easy money,
43:08and you’re no longer creating,
43:09you’re just trying to repeat the path
43:11to easy money. That’s always very,
43:12yeah, very ba—yeah, very bad. And
43:15then you get these cases where, just
43:16recently, a friend called me and said:
43:18"I need you to help, I have a friend,
43:20she's having issues, please help." I
43:23said: "Damn, a friend asked, I have to
43:24look into it." You look, and the person
43:26was making a lot of money, really, a
43:28lot of money. And now they have a pro
43:31—a problem, yeah, a problem. A huge
43:33debt, just massive, more than most
43:35people would earn in 100 lifetimes. I
43:38said: "Okay, so there's this debt.""And
43:40what assets do you have?" None at all.
43:43I said: "And during that whole period
43:44when you were earning like that, what
43:46was happening?""Nothing, there's
43:47nothing left." It’s amazing. I just
43:49see these cases sometimes, and I just
43:51can't understand how it’s even
43:52possible in principle, right? What kind
43:54of worldview must a person have to end
43:56up in this situation? And, by the way,
43:59many people who made money quickly in
44:01crypto lost it just as fast.
44:02And what is the main driver? I mean,
44:03how do people get pulled into this
44:04later? It's just a desire for some sort
44:08of gain when you have a big result. A
44:11big result, yes. And you don't value it
44:15, you take it for granted. Well, a
44:19person earns, for example, 2-3 million
44:21dollars in net profit a month, and they
44:23think: "It will always be like this,
44:24this is my new normal, this is it for
44:26the rest of my life." They don't
44:29perceive it as, "I just caught a wave,
44:31which will peak and then drop." They
44:33don't perceive it as something to build
44:34a solid foundation from or anything
44:36like that, right? They just think: "
44:38That's it, this is my new baseline."
44:40That's it. Then a hard landing happens,
44:42because when the descent begins,
44:44expenses remain, but income drops. And
44:46that is what happens, by the way, it
44:48repeats over and over again. Look, I
44:50arrived in Russia in 2007. 2007 in
44:53Russia was the fifth year of the boom.
44:56It was just crazy economic growth every
44:58single year, yes. It's considered the
44:59golden age,
45:00the golden age, just nightclubs
45:03everywhere. And it was just getting
45:05better, better, better, and better
45:07every year, yes. And there were a huge
45:09number of people who thought it would
45:11always be like that. It will just be
45:14even, even better.
45:15You have no idea how many people who
45:18were like that back then, who just five
45:21years later were in a very dire state.
45:24Just in a very dire state. They didn't,
45:26well, they kind of thought it was
45:27normal, it was a boom, right, it was a
45:29boom. But when things became normal,
45:31they couldn't adjust. I even conducted
45:33interviews. In 2007, I interviewed 100
45:36CEOs of major companies because I was
45:38writing a book called Factors of
45:41Success.
45:42Ex-CEOs or current ones, or those who
45:43...
45:43No, current, I interviewed 100 current
45:45ones.
45:46And people told me this, that, and the
45:48other, very confidently, about how they
45:50did things. Later, when it came time
45:52for me to publish the book, it was
45:54already 2008, everything had corrected
45:56downwards, and so on. And a huge number
45:59of these people called me and asked me
46:01not to write down what they had said.
46:03They...
46:04Because, because from that position, I
46:05tell you,
46:05yes, they, they were, like, very wrong.
46:08They would just ask, "You remember when
46:09I said that, please don't show that to
46:11anyone," they'd say. They called me
46:13directly and asked, because their ideas
46:15worked when everything was going a
46:16certain way. That’s why you don't
46:18value it, it’s normal. A young person
46:19, a young person graduates from
46:20university, tries something, puts some
46:22structures together. Here they get
46:24lucky, right, they catch some wave, and
46:26they can't compare it to anything yet.
46:28They just don't value it. They just
46:30think, "Well, I guess it’s always
46:32like this. You just do this, and then
46:34you get that." They don't have enough
46:35experience. And a very big problem for
46:37young entrepreneurs in general, those
46:40under 30, under 35, is that they
46:42overestimate their failures. If there's
46:45a failure, they think, "Maybe I'm not
46:46an entrepreneur, maybe this..." They
46:48start beating themselves up, right, and
46:50if they have success, they dismiss it,
46:52they think it's supposed to be that way
46:54. They don't, they don't value how rare
46:57it is. They don't value it, so they
46:59open five more projects, thinking, "
47:01Well, I did it once, I'll do it five
47:02times now."
47:03You are literally describing me 2-3
47:05years ago, just absolutely.
47:07Yes, yes, you see, I was like that too.
47:11It's not that, listen, my first, I made
47:13a bet on online fashion and I hit the
47:16jackpot. I just got lucky. It was just,
47:19well, you can imagine, I started doing
47:21almost the very first online clothing
47:23and footwear business, right? I had
47:26Sapato for new collections and KupiVIP
47:28for old collections at a discount. And
47:31both of my businesses took off, both of
47:33them. But I opened 20 more. What did I
47:39open? Dating, teama.ru. Dating. Well,
47:42yes, hundreds of thousands of people
47:44are still hooking up there, but in
47:46terms of business size, it’s just a
47:48microscopic business compared to what
47:49we were doing in online fashion. I
47:51opened VitaPortal online, all sorts of
47:53portals there. I opened, yes, a TV
47:55shopping channel that became more or
47:57less big, yes, but then I also opened,
47:59and I was up to my knees in everything,
48:01yes.
48:01Yes. And then one of my shareholders
48:04said: "Oscar, you just don't value the
48:07diamond that you have in your hand."
48:10You have a diamond in your hand. You
48:11don't see that it's a diamond. I see it
48:13, but you don't. You got one in a
48:16million. We often do the same thing
48:19with people, right, when we choose a
48:20partner. You drew a lucky ticket. Well,
48:24you were just, you were just very lucky
48:26. And you don't value it because you
48:27think, "Well, that's how it should be,
48:29that's how it is for everyone." Or you
48:31don't understand, only later after
48:32losing it, yes, people—I'm at that
48:34age now where many of our friends have
48:36already divorced, and they later go, "
48:37Damn, what a fool I was back then to
48:39take it all for granted." It turns out
48:42it wasn't a given at all, and that’s
48:43the complexity of our time, right? That
48:46we have our reality that we feel. Then
48:48there's this social media, which is
48:50some kind of absolutely illusory crap,
48:52right? Every day they throw us a
48:54narrative about what we supposedly
48:56should all be thinking about today.
48:58Everyone, oh, Trump and Musk had a
49:00fight, so we think, think, think; Iran,
49:02Israel, now we think about this, about
49:04that. And in parallel, your life is,
49:07like, small, boring, slow, and it's
49:10very tempting to escape your reality
49:13into these various fantasies. But
49:16suffering comes from that. This is the
49:18biggest challenge for me, for you, and
49:20for everyone listening to this. Right
49:22now, in my view, the people who will
49:25win are those who do very simple things
49:29. Don't drink Coca-Cola, drink water.
49:31Yes, there are very few rules, by the
49:33way. You know, there are very few rules
49:36, like, I know, I've seen athletes,
49:39when I lived with athletes, Olympic
49:41champions, they had like five rules,
49:44five, very few, but they were simply
49:47not up for debate. They are not up for
49:50debate.
49:51Could it be said that now this whole
49:53story, where money, wealth, and capital
49:54often don't depend on education or, in
49:56general, a person's IQ? Could it be
49:58said that
49:58they will simply be less valuable? Yes,
50:00exactly,
50:00yes. So, is the link breaking even
50:02further? Meaning, it’s not
50:03necessarily true anymore that you’ll
50:04be rich if you’re smart. And vice
50:06versa,
50:06again, the rules are available to
50:07everyone. Yes, I think that even before
50:10, the correlation between IQ and wealth
50:13wasn't super high, right, I mean, below
50:1580 you start having big problems, if
50:17your IQ is 50, that's a big problem,
50:20but in principle, from 100 and up,
50:22there isn't a strong correlation
50:24between IQ and money.
50:26Some basic minimum, where you can
50:27simply process information, is
50:28generally enough to find certain
50:29patterns, right, and see certain
50:31opportunities,
50:31yes. Yes, that might be it, well,
50:34courage is the most important thing,
50:36courage has always been valued and will
50:38be valued, courage, responsibility, and
50:40not just reckless, dumb courage, just
50:42some kind of daring. But sometimes that
50:44helped, yes, people just, well, they
50:45acted. A person who acts, even if
50:47stupidly, beats a person who doesn't
50:49act.
50:49Well, obviously, you have better
50:50chances.
50:50Yes. For example, we used to travel
50:52when we were kids, and what was our
50:54main goal? To meet girls. There was no
50:56other goal. Six guys went on vacation.
50:59What's the goal? Only one, there is no
51:03other. No, there is no other. That's it
51:04, we just went. We had a friend, his
51:06strategy was to throw himself at the
51:08girls' feet. He would just run when he
51:11saw beautiful girls, run and throw
51:13himself at or under their feet. A
51:15stupid strategy. Very stupid.
51:17Doubtful.
51:18It's a very stupid strategy. Very
51:20stupid. Well, really super stupid. Yes.
51:22He still succeeded better than [someone
51:24else] who did it three times. It worked
51:25once.
51:26He was also handsome, you see? And
51:27sometimes, when I'm handsome there, no
51:29matter what I do, and so on, it didn't
51:30work out well for me, but it worked out
51:32better for him than for a person who
51:33does nothing, yes. There’s going to
51:35be a lot of smart and stupid stuff now,
51:37because stupidity lies in not taking
51:39action, in not following basic rules,
51:41and in the end, you get statistics for
51:43your life; at the end of your life, you
51:45get a book containing everything you
51:47did. And it will be written there how
51:50many hours were spent here and there,
51:51what you spent them on, how many kisses
51:53you had, how many times you won a
51:54battle when things could have gone this
51:56way or that. This way or that. This way
51:58or that. How many times you won, how
51:59many times you lost, how many times you
52:01were right. It’s not that you always
52:03have to be, but in the end, you have
52:04your life statistics. How many people
52:07loved you, how many people you loved,
52:10how much value you created for others,
52:12how many people rejoiced or gained
52:14value from your activities. If you want
52:17to live well, you must help others live
52:19well. You help others solve their
52:21problems, and you solve your own
52:22problems because of that. Yes, that’s
52:24how the cycle works. And, well, I’m
52:26truly thinking about myself right now,
52:28you know? I have so many instructions
52:31now, I do 20 deep researches every day.
52:34And I have so many now
52:36when do you have time to read all that,
52:37right? You have so many instructions
52:39now that in the end, I’m like: "Each
52:42one is simple on its own." But damn,
52:45it’s just unrealistic. It’s simply
52:49unrealistic. In the end, you just have
52:52to do it. In this world, the face of
52:54that very capitalism, the American
52:56dream, and so on, is changing somehow.
52:57I think it’s changing a lot, yes;
52:59what did you bring back from America,
53:00what has changed?
53:01Well, if we talk about the most likely
53:02outcome right now,
53:04some conditional megatrends like that,
53:05yes, well, the most likely outcome is
53:07that the world’s GDP per capita will
53:09grow three to four times, not because
53:11of demographics, but simply because a
53:13new technology, artificial intelligence
53:14, has appeared. Like electricity from a
53:17wall outlet, we can now just—that’s
53:19a silly question. This race with
53:21artificial intelligence, remember that
53:23video montage showing that every tech
53:24company is "AI, AI, AI" everywhere—
53:26that montage where any company is
53:28supposedly "AI"—doesn't that look
53:29like the mortgage crisis situation? Yes
53:32, it’s a bubble, the bubble will
53:33burst, but that doesn't mean—well,
53:34unfortunately, whenever something new
53:36and cool appears, we can't immediately
53:37reach a state of, well, being
53:39reasonable. We must first, there
53:40definitely must be a peak, too much
53:42money, all sorts of scammers and such,
53:44and only then we should arrive at this.
53:46Well, look, the most likely outcome is
53:49that right now, global GDP per capita,
53:52we should check, yeah, 15,000 or maybe
53:54purchasing power parity, let's find out
53:57the GDP per capita. Global,
53:59yeah. ChatGPT live on air.
54:01Well, there. GDP per cap and PPP. Okay.
54:09I think it's around...
54:10You're Googling in English.
54:11Yes, yes, yes. Look here, the global
54:17GDP per capita by purchasing power is
54:20currently 22,000 dollars. The most
54:24likely outcome is that in 15-20 years
54:28it will be 60,000. Three times as much.
54:31Three times as much. Accordingly, the
54:34average person in the world will live
54:36like people do now in Europe and
54:38America. In America, the GDP per capita
54:40is currently about 60,000. Accordingly,
54:43the average person across the world
54:44will live with a quality of life like
54:45they have in Germany now.
54:47Well, and if you account for inflation
54:49and so on, that is, it's adjusted for
54:52inflation by purchasing power. Look, we
54:54are going to have a really great
54:56abundance. You can imagine it like this
54:58, right? Imagine we didn't have
54:59electricity, and now there's a socket
55:01everywhere, you plug it in, and energy
55:03flows. We will have roughly the same
55:05kind of socket for intelligence. There
55:07will be a socket everywhere. You can
55:08just plug in, and intelligence comes
55:09out. Yes, it's simply, well, a tripling
55:12of the global GDP. It will just take
55:14time, because systems and people change
55:16slowly, and so on. Well, in one
55:18generation, there will be abundance in
55:21many places around the world. Well, you
55:24can have almost anything you want,
55:26right? Almost everything you want. Look
55:28, right now, a 100-dollar phone, well,
55:30I don't know how much this phone costs,
55:32but a 100-dollar phone is exactly the
55:34same, one-to-one. There is no
55:36difference. Simply put, anyone can now
55:38get a phone with artificial
55:39intelligence, right, via the cloud,
55:41with fast internet. All of this, and
55:43the same kind of abundance will be
55:45everywhere.
55:45No, well, we'll assume it will be a bit
55:47slower, maybe a bit more rudimentary in
55:49some places, but globally it will be
55:50effectively the same. Yes.
55:53Well yes, maybe if you open 60 apps at
55:55once, it will be a little bit slower,
55:57yeah. But how can we imagine abundance,
56:00right? Right now we are living with a
56:03better quality of life than anyone has
56:04ever lived before. 100 years ago, there
56:07wasn't a single person who lived with
56:08the same quality of life as you. Half
56:10of people's children used to die.
56:12Literally every second child was a
56:13corpse. What kind of quality of life is
56:15that, right? And now, thanks to
56:16medicine, thanks to that, our parents
56:18live longer, right? At your age, almost
56:20no one used to have living parents,
56:22right? We, you, still have living
56:24parents, right? And I do too. That’s
56:26great. And kids, well, there are so
56:28many things. Plus, we just press a
56:31button and everything is delivered, you
56:32know, just pressing buttons, the number
56:34of actions I don't know, it's just,
56:35well, it's dozens of times easier,
56:36right? But we don't say, we don't wake
56:40up every morning and say, "Thank you,
56:41thank you that this exists."
56:43Yeah, the new normal,
56:44right? It's just the new normal. And it
56:46will be about the same when there is
56:47three times more abundance. It will be
56:49three times more, but people won't be
56:51three times happier. It will just be
56:53abundance. People will grow up getting
56:55everything they want. I want this, I
56:56want this, I want this. A huge number
56:57of purchases. If, figuratively speaking
56:59, a person makes 1,000 purchases a year
57:01now, they will make 3,000.
57:03So, it turns out, it's even more
57:04accessible, everything is available.
57:06FOMO will be even stronger,
57:07right? They will make a huge number of
57:09purchases, a huge number of
57:10microtransactions back and forth, and
57:12all of that will be handled by agents.
57:13Well, prosperity will be three times
57:16higher than it is now. Abundance. You
57:20want to go for a ride, right now you
57:22want to go wakeboarding, for example,
57:24but you can't because the boat plus the
57:26wakeboard plus all that costs a lot. In
57:3020 years, it will be three times more
57:32accessible, right, more people will be
57:34able to do it. I want to wakeboard, I
57:36go for a ride, I want this, I'll hold
57:38it, I want this, I want that—and that
57:40will be abundance. But human happiness
57:42does not grow from that. Only abundance
57:44does. It shows that birth rates are
57:47actually falling, and mental health is
57:49declining, and people are losing their
57:51sense of purpose. Purpose, yes, that is
57:54the kind of future I basically expect.
57:56Well, from that point of view, of
57:58course, it's impossible to stop. It
57:59will happen 100%, well, it's an
58:01unstoppable thing. And from that point
58:03of view, well, of course, in principle,
58:05it's good for the world because every
58:07person will choose for themselves. If
58:09you want to live like before, well,
58:10there will be places where people live
58:12just like they used to. Take the Amish
58:14in America right now, they live without
58:15electricity. Electricity came, and they
58:17said, "Count us out."
58:19Yeah,
58:20we’ve got horses. And we are,
58:22by the way, this is also a global trend
58:24toward communes, where people
58:25everywhere are starting to form their
58:26own little enclaves in the forest and
58:27so on, all over the world.
58:29Well, I think there are 6 or 7 million
58:30Amish in America, but they have five or
58:31six kids on average, and according to
58:32the latest forecast, there will be 60
58:34million of them. In two generations,
58:36they will be there
58:36is that why the US is seeing a
58:38demographic surplus projected through
58:402050? That's it.
58:41Let’s drink to two, Pasha, guys,
58:42let’s drink to three. Yes. Exactly.
58:44Well, there are a huge number of
58:45opportunities in this, because all this
58:47abundance, all this variety and
58:48diversity will be provided by
58:50entrepreneurs. There will be a crazy
58:52number of new companies. And there will
58:56be huge companies, like states, worth
58:58trillions, then hundred-billion,
58:59ten-billion, billion, hundred-million,
59:01and ten-million dollar ones. There will
59:04be more and more of them in terms of
59:06numbers. And all of this needs to be
59:08created, built, and rebuilt. Uh,
59:13am I right to think that someone who
59:15clicked on our podcast, likely out of a
59:16desire to silence their FOMO, leaves
59:18with the thought that, in reality,
59:20there will be room for everyone in the
59:22future?
59:23That proportional to your ambitions,
59:24you will choose your path, whether it's
59:26$ 10 million in capitalization, 100, or
59:28billions beyond that. And globally,
59:30there will always be those who prefer a
59:32simpler life, and it’s not necessary
59:33to run in this tech race with OpenAI
59:35and so on. That, in truth, if I am
59:37guided by some fundamental ideas, a
59:38place in the world is always guaranteed
59:40for you.
59:40Yes, but, there will likely be half the
59:44people, half, who don’t create any
59:48value for anyone.
59:50So it’s a form of pure consumption,
59:52so to speak. Meaning,
59:53yes, there will be a large number of
59:54them. People will be divided; as
59:56artificial intelligence grows and
59:58technology advances, the people who
59:59will be valued are those who take
1:00:01responsibility, take risks, seize
1:00:03chances, build, and create—those who
1:00:05can control their own behavior. And
1:00:07there will be those who cannot control
1:00:08their behavior. In the past, those who
1:00:11couldn’t control their behavior ended
1:00:13up homeless or simply died. They just
1:00:16died, even 100 years ago; if you
1:00:17couldn't control your behavior, well,
1:00:18goodbye. If you don't create something
1:00:20for another, if you were in a community
1:00:21and you didn't create something for
1:00:22that community, you were simply kicked
1:00:24out,
1:00:24even if you just didn't comply with the
1:00:25community rules,
1:00:26yeah, and that was that, really. But
1:00:27here there will simply be a huge number
1:00:29, billions of people, who will create
1:00:30zero value for anyone, while living in
1:00:32complete prosperity. In complete
1:00:33prosperity, yes. But that means it
1:00:35won't be a wealthy life. They will feel
1:00:36terrible, that
1:00:37it's such an unhappy one, but it will
1:00:38also be a new norm, that these people
1:00:40will kind of be, uh,
1:00:40well, this will be, this will be a very
1:00:42low status, yes, it will be the lowest
1:00:43status of all. They will talk about it.
1:00:45Well, like they'll come up with some
1:00:47word, yeah, like in Germany there was
1:00:48the Hartz IV program. Yeah, Hartz IV,
1:00:51yeah, such a program that gave everyone
1:00:53some kind of income, yeah, yeah, and
1:00:55that's it. This Hartz IV was
1:00:58like the most, well, it's just a little
1:01:00better than, well, I don't know, it's
1:01:02just, well, everyone knows, it's us
1:01:04paying taxes so he can sit all day and
1:01:05play PlayStation. There. Can you
1:01:08imagine how ambiguously the world is
1:01:09structured? That you, as a person who
1:01:11was, say, on the inside looking at this
1:01:13: to you, these are people who live on
1:01:15our money, loafers. But many people in
1:01:17the world wanted to come to Germany as
1:01:20migrants to get 600 euros a month there
1:01:23—for many it was a dream. Well,
1:01:25that's kind of a strange dream. Well,
1:01:27look, half, people will grow up,
1:01:28everyone will have instructions on what
1:01:30to do. Some will do it, some will not.
1:01:32People will argue about why these do it
1:01:33, and why those don't. Maybe there is
1:01:35some genetic factor responsible for
1:01:37discipline. Well, maybe discipline and
1:01:39willpower are also a genetic factor. So
1:01:41they're just, well, they were unlucky
1:01:43in the genetic lottery, they can't
1:01:45control their behavior. Well, so they
1:01:47become alcoholics, so they become these
1:01:49, they all day, there will be billions
1:01:52of people who will consume, will be
1:01:54unhappy. Unhappy, they will play
1:01:55PlayStation, or something else, they
1:01:57will mostly sit at home. They still
1:01:59won't have enough money to, for example
1:02:00, move their bodies around, because
1:02:01moving one's body is expensive, right?
1:02:04If you want to keep moving constantly,
1:02:05it costs a lot; yes, they will sit in
1:02:07comfortable rooms with comfortable
1:02:08televisions and screens, things will be
1:02:10brought to them, they will push buttons
1:02:12, and that’s how it will be for them.
1:02:14These will be billions of people who
1:02:17create zero, zero value for society.
1:02:19Zero. But there will be others who
1:02:22create trillions in value. This is
1:02:24possible now thanks to technology.
1:02:26Before, you couldn't create more in
1:02:28society; your value was limited, you
1:02:31know...I like this example: imagine a
1:02:33village in the mountains, no water
1:02:35there, and half the population is busy
1:02:38walking down the mountain with buckets
1:02:41to get water and carrying it back up.
1:02:44Half the population is occupied with
1:02:45this. And everyone creates: "If you
1:02:48carry it, well, you're valued in the
1:02:50village, you're strong." Then someone
1:02:52builds a pipeline, and suddenly, they
1:02:55are all unemployed. They are all
1:02:57unemployed, but the prosperity of the
1:02:59village has grown because now all that
1:03:01freed-up labor force can become massage
1:03:03therapists. Electricians...well, the
1:03:05village has the same water as before,
1:03:07but now there's massage too.
1:03:08Eventually, you could even open a pool
1:03:10there,
1:03:10yes, open a pool, open something else,
1:03:11right? Look, the village started living
1:03:13, started living better. Ten percent of
1:03:15the water-carriers became alcoholics
1:03:16because they said, "I've lost my sense
1:03:18of purpose. My grandfather carried
1:03:20water, my dad carried water, and I was
1:03:21supposed to carry water." That’s what
1:03:23unions are doing in France right now.
1:03:25No, there must be a driver on the train
1:03:27. It’s like, the train drives itself.
1:03:30No, there must be a driver. Yes, well,
1:03:31okay. Accordingly, if you're sitting in
1:03:33a train that drives itself, but you're
1:03:35the driver, you're just not doing
1:03:36anything else. You could be doing
1:03:38something else at that time—I don't
1:03:40know, acting in theater, putting on a
1:03:42show, playing a song, right? Prosperity
1:03:44goes up, but some people can't cope.
1:03:46Then, imagine: you have the water pipes
1:03:48, the massage therapy, and a high-tech
1:03:50company. Now the prosperity in this
1:03:52village is mega-high, 10 times higher
1:03:54than it ever was. They have everything
1:03:55they had before. And nobody works.
1:03:57Nobody works. Now, one person can
1:04:00create a product for billions. A
1:04:03product that is consumed by billions.
1:04:04That has never happened before. You
1:04:06were always limited geographically by
1:04:08your own efforts.
1:04:09Yes, of course. If it's a store, you're
1:04:11selling to those who live nearby in the
1:04:12city. Yes.
1:04:13And now everyone gets to choose. Choose
1:04:15. Either you are part of the population
1:04:19that creates things with their own
1:04:21hands, doing something, well, sort of
1:04:24delighting others with your actions.
1:04:26You make, and you receive, and you give
1:04:28. You receive, and you give. You made a
1:04:30table, delivered the table, they gave
1:04:32you milk, they gave you fish, you make,
1:04:34well, you create, give, receive. Or you
1:04:36just say that for me and that's it,
1:04:41basically. And please, bright lights,
1:04:42porn, whatever you want, robots. And
1:04:46this will be the choice.
1:04:48Here is the divide,
1:04:49and it's already happening in essence
1:04:50now, right? Right now, people are
1:04:52essentially deciding to waste their
1:04:53lives.
1:04:54I agree, it's already here now. And
1:04:55later, these banks of the river will
1:04:57just keep drifting further and further
1:04:58apart, as if making a decision
1:04:59somewhere,
1:05:00yes. And the quality of life that these
1:05:02people will live will grow, and the
1:05:04reasons to make any kind of effort will
1:05:05be fewer and fewer.
1:05:07I asked ChatGPT a final question. We
1:05:10were discussing the whole topic of a
1:05:12new capitalism. Yes. And ChatGPT
1:05:14ultimately proposed a theory that, in
1:05:15all likelihood, the rich will get
1:05:17richer, and the poor will get poorer. I
1:05:19mean, no, I don't agree with that.
1:05:21And I asked it, "Why do you think so?"
1:05:23Like, what is your idea? And it tells
1:05:25me that the rich get richer because
1:05:27systems are designed to amplify capital
1:05:29, not to redistribute it and not to
1:05:31redirect it. So ChatGPT believes that
1:05:33everything currently being built in the
1:05:35world will supposedly again reinforce
1:05:37those who already have capital. I
1:05:39understand that you ultimately don't
1:05:40agree with that, right?
1:05:43No. First, the number of people living
1:05:45below the poverty line 50 years ago was
1:05:4850%of the world's population; now it's
1:05:51less than 10%. Uh, accordingly, the
1:05:54number of people who have emerged from
1:05:56poverty is huge, so the poor, yes, are
1:05:58also becoming richer, and their quality
1:06:01of life is rising.
1:06:02The basic minimum is rising,
1:06:03yes, it's rising, yes. But the gap is
1:06:04growing even more, right? The gap is
1:06:06growing even more. Well, very soon a
1:06:09poor person will be someone with an
1:06:11iPhone, right, who has food delivered
1:06:13to their door, you see, someone who
1:06:15just, and well, they will feel quite
1:06:18well-off.
1:06:19Yes, and at that very moment, the
1:06:20world's first trillionaires will emerge
1:06:21, yes, those who will make,
1:06:22Yes, and if you compare yourself, and
1:06:24of course, it's a psychological trap in
1:06:26any case, that people still, uh, even
1:06:28if your 100-dollar phone works just as
1:06:29well as an iPhone, you still, about the
1:06:31iPhone, yes, there is still a hierarchy
1:06:33there. And even if the product no
1:06:36longer differs, it differs in marketing
1:06:38, yes, accordingly, there will be
1:06:3910,000-dollar cars that will be the
1:06:41same as 200,000-dollar ones. The
1:06:44driving experience is smooth, quiet.
1:06:46You will have a car that is super,
1:06:48better than any Mercedes from 20 years
1:06:50ago. But this car is 10,000 dollars,
1:06:52and there are cars for 200,000 dollars.
1:06:54And the 200,000-dollar car will be
1:06:56prestigious, right? You'll be like: "
1:06:58Wow!" He's got a 200k car there,
1:06:59right? Because it costs 200,000 dollars
1:07:01,
1:07:01right? That's simply its only
1:07:03difference. That is its only difference
1:07:05, right? A paradox. It's a paradox. So,
1:07:08essentially speaking, the gap between
1:07:10the rich and the poor will grow, but
1:07:11the difference in the quality of life
1:07:13will shrink, as it were. And what is
1:07:16the end result, well, in the end, you
1:07:18were in San Francisco for a month, at a
1:07:19five-star hotel. A five-star hotel, the
1:07:22most expensive hotel in San Francisco.
1:07:25Guests stand in line for the waiter.
1:07:29The waiter stays in one spot, the
1:07:31guests stand in line, and he takes
1:07:33orders.
1:07:36Yes, Kazakh, well, that's cool, right,
1:07:38isn't it? When robots finally arrive,
1:07:40they will deliver everything, bring
1:07:42everything, yes, but, uh, okay, the
1:07:43quality, for example, you're rich, yes,
1:07:45in San Francisco, well, your service
1:07:47level is lower, it's lower, it's lower
1:07:49than the air, as it were. And so, what
1:07:51is the, the, the thrill in that? Okay,
1:07:52you have some collection of cars, 200
1:07:54cars sitting somewhere in a garage. How
1:07:56does that help your quality of life?
1:07:57Well, fine, you have some stones lying
1:07:58around, diamonds, in a safe, locked
1:08:00away. How does that affect your life?
1:08:01How? How? It doesn't, right? There,
1:08:05accordingly, uh, healthcare is, well,
1:08:07this will be a big, but a big "but." If
1:08:10, uh, breakthroughs in healthcare are
1:08:13not available to everyone. Accordingly,
1:08:16right now, the difference between
1:08:18someone earning 100,000 dollars a year
1:08:20and 20,000 dollars a year is about 10
1:08:22years of life expectancy.
1:08:2410 years difference. And what will
1:08:26happen when the difference becomes 100
1:08:27years? 100 years. Right now you might
1:08:32say: "Well, what about money? Well,
1:08:34money doesn't solve everything, it
1:08:36doesn't solve anything, right? But what
1:08:38if it meant 100 years of extra life?
1:08:40That's the question. That’s when
1:08:42things would start; most likely, that
1:08:43wouldn't work out, right? Most likely,
1:08:44the government would have to pay for it
1:08:45for everyone, to regulate it, because
1:08:47it would be a universal right.
1:08:48That would just lead to some kind of
1:08:50extreme, peak-level class hatred. Well,
1:08:53yes, because right now billionaires are
1:08:54dying from the exact same diseases,
1:08:55literally the same ones. Take Steve
1:08:57Jobs, he died of pancreatic cancer. A
1:08:59completely standard fourth stage, and
1:09:01now he’s gone. Well, a lot of them
1:09:03die. A lot. I’m subscribed to a site
1:09:05for philanthropists, where they leave
1:09:07money after they die. And every week,
1:09:09the richest people in the world donate
1:09:12billions of dollars to universities and
1:09:14causes. Died at 66, at 71, at 51, at 72
1:09:18, 82, 83. They don't live any longer;
1:09:21they live just the same. Why do they
1:09:23live like that?
1:09:24You could even dig deeper into the fact
1:09:25that their nervous systems are worn out
1:09:26, the decisions they’ve made, and so
1:09:27on. It’s also emotionally taxing for
1:09:28people who have to make major decisions
1:09:30.
1:09:30Because, look, for a very wealthy
1:09:32person to live 14 years longer today,
1:09:34you have to not smoke, not drink, go to
1:09:36bed on time, go to sleep at the same
1:09:38time, wake up at the same time, sleep
1:09:40well, and alternate between phases of
1:09:42rest and high-pressure work. You have
1:09:44to eat all sorts of greens, like a
1:09:46whole bucket of them, no sugar,
1:09:48basically, just don’t eat crap, to
1:09:50put it simply, and then you’ll live.
1:09:52Well, most billionaires don't follow
1:09:55this list. They don't follow this list,
1:09:57so they are essentially sacrificing
1:09:5910-15 years of their lives. There’s
1:10:02the manual, there are the billions. And
1:10:04how does that help you? How? Even if
1:10:07you have a chef at home and a chef on
1:10:08your yacht, in the end, you’re the
1:10:10one who has to eat it, or not eat it.
1:10:11You see? The paradox is, I’m almost
1:10:13certain that those same billionaires
1:10:15come home in the evening and say," Well
1:10:16, I need to enjoy life, let's have a
1:10:18brandy, relax. "
1:10:18Yes, yes, of course, I worked so hard.
1:10:20Yes, I deserve this. I deserve this
1:10:22every day. A couple of brandies. Every
1:10:24day. Every single day. But what about
1:10:25the French? They live long lives, and
1:10:26they’ve been doing that for a long
1:10:27time, right?
1:10:27Right? And Italy with their wine.
1:10:29And then at 55, you’ve got a red nose
1:10:30with those little bumps, where it's
1:10:32obvious someone has been boozing for 20
1:10:33years, you know? And that is why I am
1:10:35very happy right now. Look, here is
1:10:38good news. Access to opportunities. is
1:10:42leveling out. People used to have more
1:10:44exclusive access to knowledge, to
1:10:47resources, and to a personalized
1:10:49approach just for you. That is being
1:10:52democratized now. And now, it is truly
1:10:55you who becomes the deciding factor.
1:10:59You control your behavior. Free will,
1:11:01your free will. You choose. You choose.
1:11:04That is great. It is an leveling out.
1:11:08Leveling out. That is cool. So now,
1:11:10what about the children of rich people,
1:11:12and what advantages do they have, tell
1:11:15me?
1:11:15If they don't make the right choice,
1:11:17then...
1:11:17Tell me, what advantage? Well, okay, so
1:11:19Dad decided and shoved you into a job
1:11:21somewhere. But if you don't...well, you
1:11:23will still get fired from there, right?
1:11:26He might solve the problem a couple of
1:11:27times, but then he will get tired of
1:11:28solving it. You'll just have the same
1:11:30benefits, you will just be a bit higher
1:11:32, just higher. But the feeling of life
1:11:35is the same. So, what is happening now
1:11:37makes me very happy, because you...you
1:11:39don't decide for yourself what
1:11:41intelligence to be born with. That is a
1:11:43genetic factor. And where to be born,
1:11:46right? You don't choose, you just
1:11:48appear in the world. And before, you
1:11:51would appear somewhere and have less
1:11:53access to information, fewer people,
1:11:55less access. Now, please, listen to
1:11:57whoever you want. Whoever you want. You
1:11:59can listen to the greatest people every
1:12:01day. The absolute greatest. Before, to
1:12:03have access to them once, to take a
1:12:06walk, to listen once for 15 minutes.
1:12:08That was it, everything.
1:12:10Wow. Then people would live their whole
1:12:14lives off that one conversation. Now,
1:12:17please, whatever you want, but there
1:12:20won't be more results. There won't be
1:12:25more results, because it turns out to
1:12:27be very contradictory in the end. Well,
1:12:29it turns out it's all about action.
1:12:31Knowing and doing are not the same
1:12:32thing. Knowing the path and walking it
1:12:34are not the same thing. And when all
1:12:40the excuses fall away, you only have to
1:12:43honestly admit to yourself what you did
1:12:45and what you didn't do. And then, that
1:12:49is exactly where psychological and
1:12:51mental health begins. If you have no
1:12:55excuses, you really have no excuses,
1:12:57yes, only the inner choice remains. Yes
1:12:59, alright. Thank you for a great
1:13:01conversation.
1:13:02Thank you, friends.
1:13:03We are giving away entrepreneurship.
1:13:05What are we giving away? As usual,
1:13:07friends, if you found this conversation
1:13:09important, if you liked it and so on,
1:13:10leave a reaction, a like, a comment,
1:13:11anything at all, and share the video.
1:13:12Links to Oscar are below.
1:13:14Yes, I’m doing a huge fifteen-city
1:13:16tour in October. In October, yes. Yes,
1:13:19a stand-up, a business stand-up.
1:13:21And for the best comment under this
1:13:23video. And if you share this video with
1:13:25someone who would find it useful, and
1:13:27leave a comment. We will choose one
1:13:29winner and give away a ticket, right?
1:13:32Yes.
1:13:32From all the comments,
1:13:33right? Well, you will choose the best
1:13:37one honestly. And
1:13:39I mean, let’s not rely on likes or
1:13:40anything, just write something sincere
1:13:42and truly interesting, and we'll take a
1:13:44look.
1:13:44Yes, so people don’t cheat or
1:13:45manipulate,
1:13:46yes,
1:13:46one ticket. Thank you, see you soon.

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