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0:32welcome back folks
0:34this is a short little presentation on
0:36keys to the daily bias
0:38in the forex market
0:45all right so we are looking at a crude
0:48depiction
0:48of a open hi-lo close bar
0:53and this is a it's a generic little
0:56pattern
0:57that i use to teach my power three
1:00and basically power three is
1:02accumulation manipulation and
1:03distribution
1:05and how that is presented in a daily
1:08range
1:10now this formation is not
1:13specific to only a daily chart
1:17it's every time frame so the things that
1:19i'm teaching you here
1:21don't think just in terms of the daily
1:24range because you can use it as
1:26a session range okay the the same
1:30premise that i'm going to be
1:31referring to here can be applied to just
1:33what occurs
1:34between two o'clock in the morning and
1:37five o'clock in the morning new york
1:39time for london
1:40and equally effective it could be done
1:42for
1:43the time window between seven o'clock in
1:45the morning and 10 am
1:46new york time okay so freedom
1:49gives you a lot of room for study
1:52so you can go in there and mine those
1:55things i just gave you
1:58the idea of a daily bias before i get
2:01into it i'm going to try to
2:03do as best i can to make this a very
2:05short and concise
2:06video but the idea of daily bias
2:10if i could be asked what was the only
2:14question
2:15i feel is the most repeated one
2:19by email to me whether it be my students
2:23in mentorship when they first
2:24join or from people around the world
2:26through youtube
2:28and when i was on twitter which i'm not
2:30anymore but
2:31number one question was obviously what
2:34is the daily bias
2:35and how could i know what that daily
2:36bias is because if i could do that then
2:38i'll know how to day trade
2:40and i've always said rather facetiously
2:44but not to be a discouragement that's
2:47not true
2:47because you could have the bias and
2:50you'll still
2:51do something wrong because of your
2:53infancy as a trader
2:56i'm going to give you some things that
2:58are very
2:59generic but are very powerful if you
3:03don't know them
3:04now for the benefit of the new
3:07viewers here some of my old
3:10followers and friends will be
3:13bored with the next couple minutes but
3:15but it's something that's worth
3:16repeating
3:18so i'm going to talk about the
3:19architecture of the daily range
3:21okay and we're going to assume with a
3:24rather
3:26loose definition of bullish and
3:28bearishness
3:30i've taught how to determine what that
3:31is in this youtube channel
3:34but if you look at the idea of a market
3:37that is predisposed to go higher
3:39and i'll cover a little bit of that in
3:41this presentation
3:43but if we're looking at a daily range
3:45and we anticipate it being bullish
3:48it does not need to have the open the
3:52low
3:52the high and an up close
3:56for me to have a bullish bias in other
4:00words i don't care
4:01where that close price is
4:04i just need to know is it more likely to
4:06have the range expand to the upside
4:09or the downside from the opening price
4:13okay so i'm going to give you some
4:15things like i just did there if you're
4:16not writing this stuff down
4:18it's really pointless for you to watch
4:20the video because
4:21there isn't going to be this magic
4:23download from me saying something and
4:24you instantly understand it
4:26you need to write it down and then go
4:28into your charts and study these things
4:30these specific characteristics and see
4:32if i'm not telling you the very
4:34truths of the marketplace so
4:38with the assumption that we are bullish
4:42okay the idea that say this
4:45is the euro dollar and this is a daily
4:48range that you anticipate
4:50being bullish for that particular day
4:53i'll cover
4:54in a moment how those things could be
4:56derived
4:57doesn't mean it's 100 my daily bias is
4:59not 100
5:02if i get something initially wrong about
5:04my bias
5:05early in the day i may have something
5:07that constitutes a reversal
5:10of my analysis or i have something that
5:12completely negates the idea and i move
5:14to the sidelines
5:15so it's important to know there must be
5:18flexibility
5:19in your daily bias routine okay so
5:23also uh daily bias generally does not
5:25flip flop back and forth
5:26bullish bullish down down bullish
5:28bullish down down bull
5:30it doesn't do anything like that it's
5:32predominantly when the market is bullish
5:34we're looking for expansion on the
5:36upside so trades that
5:38allow a move from the opening price
5:41higher and not requiring the
5:45close to be higher than the open when i
5:48first started
5:49in the 90s and i started getting good at
5:51the s p
5:52and bonds i required this
5:56when i was bullish and i would usually
5:58hold to the close
6:00and that right there sometimes would
6:02sting me because it would
6:03give this real big expansion day and i
6:05would hold on to it think it's going to
6:06close even higher
6:08and it would basically collapse down
6:12to the opening or even below it so i
6:15learned later on
6:16that even though the bias may be bullish
6:18there is something that it's
6:20reaching for eventually and when it hits
6:22that or reaches it
6:24there's probably going to be a reversal
6:25day which was
6:27eventually the uh the culmination of my
6:29reversal market profile
6:31but that's beyond the scope here but the
6:34architecture of the daily range the
6:35first
6:36and most important thing is if we're
6:38bullish or bearish
6:39is that opening price so the question is
6:42what is the opening price
6:46you can go and simply use the opening
6:49price at midnight new york time
6:51okay whatever that opening price is
6:54for the market you're trading that is
6:58the opening price
6:59to me okay that that's an opening price
7:01that
7:02i could use with this idea here if i'm
7:04bullish i want to be buying
7:06near or in the best case scenario
7:10below that opening price with the
7:12expectation that i'm buying
7:14usually the low of the day or very close
7:15to it or if i miss it
7:17okay say i was a little ambitious and i
7:19had a limit order that was just beyond
7:21the scope of what the
7:22daily range reached down for for that
7:25particular day
7:27then i have to decide whether or not i'm
7:29going to participate
7:31and trade something closer to the
7:32opening price or
7:34just above it which is not like breaking
7:37a rule or anything
7:38it just means that it's better to be
7:41trading
7:41at the opening price or below when
7:43bullish and if we're bearish we want to
7:45be trading
7:46short at or above the opening price and
7:48that's your highest
7:50probability low risk scenario there's
7:52that you can't get any better than that
7:54and if you study daily ranges when the
7:56market's bullish
7:58and study where that opening price is at
8:00midnight it doesn't happen all the time
8:02it's not an
8:03everyday bias filter like it doesn't
8:05give you an everyday thing
8:07it just means that you go into your day
8:10with that expectation that if you're
8:12bullish
8:12you want to be buying at or very near
8:14the opening price or below it
8:16so we're going to use this idea here
8:18everything i'm saying you just reverse
8:20it when it's a
8:21potential bearish scenario so the
8:24opening price is the most important
8:26okay and it's again the opening price at
8:29midnight
8:29how do you arrive at that what is the
8:31opening price on your 15 minute chart
8:33there you go so draw that out in time
8:36usually extend it out to around 11
8:38o'clock in the morning new york time now
8:40why that time of the day
8:41it's smack dab in the middle of london
8:43close london close
8:45killzone for me is 10 o'clock in the
8:46morning to
8:48noon new york time now it can go a
8:50little bit beyond noon and sometimes go
8:52into
8:53one o'clock in the afternoon but by and
8:55far and large 10 o'clock in the morning
8:57to noon
8:57new york time that's london close
8:59killzone as i define it
9:02so if you just use the one hour mark
9:04right in between the two
9:06that's eleven o'clock draw that opening
9:08price out to that
9:09period every single day and study that
9:13go back and look at your back testing
9:15and
9:16take copious notes seriously take a
9:21a major undertaking with back testing
9:24and studying the things i'm teaching
9:25here and also the things i've taught in
9:26this youtube channel
9:28and you're going to find that what
9:29you're building is the world's
9:32best trading book because it's going to
9:34be important to you it's going to be
9:36salient to the things that you are
9:37concerned about as you were developing
9:39and it's going to have all the answers
9:41for you because you have found them with
9:43experience and study
9:45it's not just taking my word for it
9:46you're going to go in you're going to
9:47see it
9:48it's going to be much more meaningful to
9:49you than if you were to buy a book that
9:51i write
9:52or someone else writes and it has their
9:54examples in there
9:55there's no connection to it and you
9:57probably felt that before
9:58reading a book or you know watching
10:00someone else's videos even mine
10:02you feel this disconnect and it's
10:04because you have not had your hands on
10:07the process and that's what makes this
10:09stuff work
10:10it's not just watching a video binge
10:12watching so getting back to the opening
10:14price
10:15this price here is the opening at
10:18midnight new york time
10:20if we're bullish we don't expect a lot
10:22of price action on the downside it can
10:25but if it does go below it during the
10:27london session we're
10:29generally looking for the low of the
10:30data form
10:32if for whatever reason there's very
10:34little movement below the opening price
10:36at midnight during
10:37london and it starts to move up it
10:40doesn't
10:40really expand too far or doesn't move a
10:43lot in terms of pips now what is that
10:46that's kind of like open for
10:47interpretation what is not moving a lot
10:49michael
10:51say it moves around 30 pips maybe 35
10:53pips
10:54for the day and it enters
10:58new york generally it could
11:01come back down and travel below the
11:03opening price during the new york
11:05session especially if there's high
11:06impact or medium impact news they may
11:08use that as a guys to take it down below
11:11the opening price and run the initial
11:13low of the day and then you have what i
11:15mentioned earlier in passing which
11:17is a market reversal profile for
11:19intraday
11:20and then you would catch the low of the
11:22day that way and then you would expect
11:24the range to expand on the upside again
11:26not requiring that
11:29close to be higher than the opening
11:31price so
11:33the high of the day is what we're really
11:35targeting
11:37we're targeting that we have to have
11:39some rule-based idea
11:41to have some realistic
11:44solid sound basis
11:48trying to find all the the salient
11:51adjectives to describe what
11:52you're doing with the uh the high of the
11:54day and
11:56it could be a pivot point if you'd like
11:57to use pivot points it could be an
11:59old high if you like support and
12:01resistance
12:03or an old low you know same thing with
12:05support and resistance
12:06and it may be a fibonacci level
12:09you may be a specific fibonacci
12:12extension
12:14it could be an inch a week high you know
12:16something to that effect
12:17but you need to be aiming for something
12:20okay
12:21and whatever that is it needs to be
12:24predetermined you can't just watch price
12:26go throughout the day and say well i
12:28wonder where it's going to reach for
12:29you need to know what it is and average
12:31daily range in the last five days
12:34is another general rule of thumb where
12:35you could look for a target for the
12:37intraday
12:38it does not mean but i do have tools
12:40that will allow you to get
12:42to the high and low of the day but you
12:44won't know how to do that even if i sit
12:46down and show you
12:47it takes time to practice as you'll see
12:49in the later portions of this
12:50description and
12:52teaching it's not always as easy as open
12:55down rally close on the high
12:59and this is what you're all expecting
13:01especially those that watch all my
13:03youtube videos you think this is how
13:04it's always going to pan out
13:06and then the first day you see this not
13:09form
13:09when you think it's bullish it throws
13:12you into like a short circuit you're
13:14like
13:14this doesn't work it's failing they're
13:16changing the algorithm you know
13:18they're going after ict now they're
13:19changing it because everybody knows how
13:21to do it now that's not what's going on
13:23you're just operating in a particular
13:26day
13:26that may require consolidation or
13:29retracement
13:31then this type of day will form okay but
13:34again
13:35the closing price is not that big of a
13:37deal so on the buy
13:39days or when it's bullish and our bias
13:42is bullish
13:43we're focusing on the open and the high
13:46okay
13:46those two things are critical the less
13:50forgiving is the low because you don't
13:54necessarily need to be trading
13:55at the low of the day that's the highest
13:57form of
13:58analysis if you're bullish and you're
14:00buying the low of the day
14:02or very close to the low of the day what
14:03is that within five pips
14:05and is that reasonable is it realistic
14:07absolutely
14:08is it realistic for you to expect how to
14:10that you'll do this
14:12in the first few times that you sit down
14:13or in the first couple months of
14:15learning it no because you're going to
14:17be fearful
14:18you're going to be afraid and you may
14:20see this opening price and it may dive
14:22down
14:2325 30 pips and it might do it quickly
14:26and
14:26you'll be scared you'll be like a deer
14:29in headlights
14:30you'll second guess yourself and you
14:33won't
14:33trigger it you won't put a limit order
14:35in because you want to
14:38get in at the market after it starts
14:39moving in your favor and these are all
14:41the things that are
14:41normal for you to develop as a trader
14:45but you have to go in and tackle these
14:47fearful situations
14:49and do it with a principle-based
14:51approach
14:52but you have to start with some kind of
14:54theory otherwise you're never going to
14:56understand what it is that you're
14:58fearing
14:59and how to overcome it so by
15:01desensitizing yourself
15:03by looking at the daily range watching
15:04live price not
15:06watching trading views replay function
15:09that's not the same you need to watch
15:11these candles live
15:13and breathe when they're born at the
15:15opening price
15:16watch how they move around and then when
15:18they expire and die on their clothes
15:20and a new candle is born after that one
15:22you need to know what it felt like while
15:24that candle was you know
15:26going through its life cycle it doesn't
15:28matter what time frame
15:30you need to see it live that's the only
15:32way
15:33you're going to feel comfortable with
15:35trading live funds
15:37and i'm not saying that that should be
15:39your goal here because
15:40you're going to decide that on your own
15:42but in a demo
15:43account setting the only way you're
15:45going to be able to find
15:47consistency in finding where to get in
15:49and where to get out and how to buy and
15:51how to hold
15:52you know working with a daily bias idea
15:55is that you have to go
15:56in with the expectation you're going to
15:58get it wrong a lot and every time you
16:00get something wrong that mistake is an
16:01opportunity to learn something
16:03mostly about yourself what you're
16:04fearful of and those things that you
16:06need to be recording your journal
16:08when you do these exercises every single
16:10trading session
16:12is an opportunity for you to practice
16:14every single trading day
16:15is a lab experiment you need to be
16:18getting
16:18in there and practicing what is
16:21practicing
16:22getting it right all the time no you
16:23need to be practicing how you engage if
16:25you
16:26think the market's bullish you got to go
16:28in there and attack
16:29that opening price or something below it
16:31what would be down there would be
16:32bullish
16:33it could be a order block it could be an
16:36old high finding support
16:38anything that you and your method leans
16:41heavily on
16:42as a support idea or something that
16:45would be bullish if it traded to it
16:48then hey you know that's what you're
16:51going to be working with
16:52for some of you that like indicators and
16:54that sounds some weird me saying that
16:55but there are still some of you that
16:57like
16:57indicators and that may be something
16:59down below this opening price that
17:01creates a
17:02buy signal for your indicator maybe it's
17:04something you created
17:05you know uniquely of your own study
17:11whatever it is the idea is
17:14that you need to be deriving what that
17:16bias
17:17is based on whatever the high is
17:20that you're aiming for and it's going to
17:22be rooted on something beyond that one
17:25single daily candle
17:26and i'll talk about that next but
17:29the close is the least of our concern
17:32we don't care where that closing price
17:34is because
17:36what is the closing price that's way
17:38into uh
17:39you know late new york time i'm not
17:41trying to trade that time a day
17:43so what's the closing price for me
17:46whatever the opening price is at noon
17:5015-minute candle the opening price when
17:52the 15-minute candle opens
17:54during the noon hour in new york there's
17:56your closing price
17:58and do all your studies with that
18:00mindset the opening price at midnight
18:02and the opening price at noon there's
18:04your beginning and end here's your book
18:06ends
18:06what does price do between those
18:08specific times
18:09if you study that you'll see that that
18:13usually is going to be the perfect
18:15encapsulation of
18:17the lines portion of the daily range now
18:19you may get some kind of a little
18:20squiggly move
18:22a little earlier you know during the
18:24asian session previous day
18:26which will be the new trading day for
18:28some of you but i look at things
18:30from a new york time okay so it it's not
18:34a new day to me until we get into
18:36midnight new york time then it's a new
18:38day and it may sound
18:39you know again arrogant and
18:41self-centered as an american
18:43but that's just how these algorithms
18:44they run on new york time
18:46it you can argue about all you want but
18:49everything runs on new york time
18:51so the idea is
18:54you have to know what the architecture
18:57is of the daily range
18:58and it's based on these four components
19:00the opening price most important
19:02whether you're bullish or bearish the
19:04high when you're bullish
19:06you're aiming for something okay and
19:08i'll talk about that in a minute
19:11the targeting of that high
19:14starts with an ideal area in the market
19:17where you're trying to buy it
19:18okay some kind of a low now the low of
19:21the day
19:21it's not important for you to try to get
19:24in that every single time
19:25you've seen me do things like this in
19:27live trading and examples on this
19:29youtube channel when i was on twitter
19:30but
19:32that takes a lot of experience and a lot
19:34of time and
19:35you're gonna have to grow into that and
19:37i don't ever sugarcoat it
19:39but you don't need that to find an
19:41opportunity
19:42in the daily range bias
19:46so usually what happens is between the
19:48opening price and the closing price
19:51this part of the body of the candle it's
19:54usually two o'clock in the morning
19:56new york time to around 10 o'clock in
19:58the morning
20:00new york time so that around eight hour
20:03period
20:04of time is usually the body of the
20:07candle
20:08that's the the lions portion of the
20:10range that in itself
20:13is a huge milestone once you study that
20:16and see it
20:17for what it is it's the truth you won't
20:20be afraid
20:21of getting into another trade
20:23opportunity if you miss your ideal entry
20:25if you understand that
20:27you also will grow to welcome new york
20:30session trading
20:32because new york session trading usually
20:33is somewhere above that opening price
20:35unless it goes down
20:36and dives below the opening price and
20:38runs the initial low of the day out like
20:39i mentioned earlier
20:41and that doesn't happen a lot and even
20:42if that does happen
20:44and you say you get stopped out if your
20:46bias is still
20:49bullish you got to anticipate that as a
20:52potentially
20:53you know you got stopped out you did
20:54something wrong don't beat yourself up
20:56about it
20:57and go in and look for another
20:58opportunity at that opening price
21:01or close to it because new york session
21:04will
21:04will do that if everything's remaining
21:07bullish
21:08it will still do that and then you can
21:10ride that
21:11expansion in the new york session into
21:14that 10 o'clock to noon hour
21:16where we close okay your candles on your
21:19platforms
21:20and on your brokerage uh accounts
21:23they're not going to paint the daily
21:24range like this with these time
21:27parameters
21:28that's why you have to think about
21:29things a little differently
21:31and you have to put your daily dividers
21:33in for your
21:34perception of the daily range that means
21:37midnight to noon midnight to noon
21:40midnight to noon if you do that on an
21:42hourly chart in a 15 minute time frame
21:44study that go back over the last couple
21:45months of any one of the pairs that
21:47you'd like to trade
21:48you're going to see something that is a
21:50lot more clearer
21:52than if you just click the daily
21:54dividers or separation tab
21:56that does the session dividers i know
21:59some of you are still using mt4
22:01i've transitioned to trading view but if
22:03you put the session
22:05separator in there their separation
22:08isn't how i see the daily range so
22:11anytime i'm referring to my students the
22:13daily range
22:14i'm showing that midnight to noon
22:16midnight to noon
22:17okay so that is important so
22:20if you get beyond this in the other
22:24studies that i've done on this youtube
22:25channel you'll get more insights about
22:27everything that i haven't said here but
22:29has been taught in other lessons
22:32so what are we looking for if we're
22:34bullish and we're aiming for this high
22:37okay what high price are we looking for
22:39it's going to be a draw on liquidity
22:41now what is that okay it is the most
22:44important thing in trading
22:48why should a market go up
22:51or why should a market go down it's
22:54going to be reaching for something
22:56okay and that something is liquidity
22:59liquidity is just a term that's used
23:02to understand orders that are in the
23:05marketplace
23:06that are waiting to be paired up
23:10with a counterparty and what do i mean
23:12by that
23:14if the market is likely to go higher and
23:17it means our bias would be underlyingly
23:19bullish
23:20that bullish bias suggests to us as a
23:24analyst that we think the daily range is
23:26going to expand
23:27over the hours i've outlined in this
23:28teaching
23:31if it rallies up to an old high
23:34and just above it what would be resting
23:37above that old high
23:38buy stops why would an old high have buy
23:42stops above it because there's
23:43traders that are short from that old
23:46price high
23:47and their orders to protect that short
23:49are buy stops
23:50so if the market is down here and opens
23:53below that old high somewhere back here
23:56and i'm speaking hypothetically but you
23:58if you've been following this channel
23:59for any length of time you pretty much
24:01know what i'm referring to
24:02it's going to be running for an old high
24:04it might be old equal highs
24:06relative equal highs you know or one
24:08singular swing high
24:10and above that is going to be buy side
24:12liquidity or
24:13buy stops so the liquidity that's being
24:16attacked
24:16is by side liquidity so that's the draw
24:20on price it's going to go up there
24:21because
24:22it needs to go there it needs to go to a
24:25level
24:26where there's going to be a
24:30exchange anyone that's buying down here
24:34they have to have a way of getting out
24:35of it so
24:37what do they have to do to get out of
24:38their long position they have to sell it
24:41so if they bought it let's say perfect
24:43example
24:45we bought below the opening price at
24:46some
24:48really fancy round number and we
24:51held it all day long and it ran above an
24:54old high
24:56those buy side liquidity orders are
24:59going to be waiting
25:00to be tripped as a market order if the
25:02market trades there those
25:04buy stocks become market orders to buy
25:06at the marketplace
25:07which is perfect for the smart money
25:10traders that are
25:10long down here they're looking to sell
25:13it so they're pairing it with
25:14a a pool of liquidity of traders that
25:18have an interest
25:19in buying at a higher price why because
25:22they've been short
25:23and they want to be out if it goes above
25:26their specific
25:27price level and everyone knows trailing
25:29stop losses
25:30are cancer on retail traders because
25:33they don't know how to effectively
25:34manage their position
25:36so there's always going to be a plethora
25:37of buy stops above
25:39previous day's highs or below previous
25:42day's lows in the form of sell-side
25:43liquidity
25:45so as a short-term day trader you can
25:48capitalize on that
25:50and use it as your high or where you
25:52think the market's going to go
25:54now let's get back to this point about
25:56the close
25:57just like we don't care about where the
25:59closing price is we're not trying to
26:00forecast the closing price
26:02exactly at the opening price at noon
26:06new york time that's not what we're
26:07trying to do i have things i can do that
26:09with
26:10but that's not the scope of this
26:13teaching and it's certainly not
26:14something i'm laying before you as a
26:16personal challenge
26:18what you're trying to do is find
26:19something that it's going to target
26:22and here's the the rub it might go
26:24beyond your target
26:27and that's a lesson in itself you're
26:28gonna learn a whole lot about yourself
26:30if you get into a trade and you get out
26:33with a reasonable
26:34or respectable uh pip hall say
26:37say you take 100 pips out of the day
26:39it's not likely but
26:41let's say you did take 100 pips out of
26:42the day
26:44but it moves 180 pips are you going to
26:47be mad
26:47sure you will you're going to be upset
26:48you can say no i'll be happy with 100
26:50pips no you won't okay
26:52i can tell you i don't feel that way and
26:55i've been doing this a long time
26:57so you're never right in this industry
26:59you're never going to be the perfect
27:00trader
27:01it's never going to happen so that's why
27:02you have to determine
27:04in static terms what the high is that
27:06you're aiming for
27:08and from where you're entering and what
27:09you're aiming for that's your
27:11trade you're not trying to fool yourself
27:15or your friends on social media that
27:18you're going to be able to do the whole
27:19entire
27:20range from low to high you're not going
27:22to
27:23okay so be happy and content with
27:26what you've seen as possible take the
27:29profit
27:30move to the sidelines and wait for
27:31another opportunity at another day
27:34don't go back in and milk the daily bias
27:38because you have extra time still
27:39after your trades been done that's
27:41always
27:43that's always a bad scenario
27:46the only time that is considered
27:50is if you took a trade in london and you
27:52got
27:53either stopped out or
27:56uh you didn't get a fill
27:59so you can go back in one more time okay
28:02that that new york that's the only time
28:04i look at
28:05you know as a second opportunity unless
28:07i'm going in there
28:08you know going crazy with a lot of
28:09scalping and that's just
28:11even though i can do it very well i
28:13don't like to do it because it
28:14demands too much of my focus and i can
28:17do other things to do
28:18just as much as that but the draw of
28:20liquidity is where the market's likely
28:22to go
28:23so that's what you're aiming for in this
28:24case when we're bullish that's the high
28:26that's that price that we're aiming for
28:28so we're we're using the draw on
28:29liquidity
28:30that is an old high now that old high
28:33might be in the form like i said of an
28:34old low
28:35that we traded through and now it may
28:38come back up to that as an upside
28:40objective
28:41i don't personally like to look at
28:43trades like that because
28:44everybody thinks that way in retail it's
28:46support resistance
28:47and you know support broken turns
28:49resistance and sometimes
28:51but not all the time but i have tools
28:54that will do a higher
28:56range of probability than just simply
28:59looking at the classic support
29:00resistance because
29:01you go right back to the same question
29:02i've always posed
29:04what is the support and what is the
29:06resistance because all of us are going
29:08to have
29:08a different interpretation of what that
29:10is but the way i break down the market
29:13in specific ranges and there's things
29:16that i teach that are pd arrays
29:18they're very specific and it's not left
29:21for interpretation
29:22it's very specific things so that high
29:26just think of it as the relative equal
29:28highs okay and if that's what you're
29:29framing
29:30on a 15-minute chart or an hourly chart
29:32or four-hour chart
29:34for your target for the high that's your
29:37draw on liquidity
29:40and then once you understand that then
29:42you'll be utilizing institutional order
29:43flow
29:44and we'll talk a little bit about that
29:45in our next slide
29:48so the draw on liquidity this is the
29:50euro dollar
29:52and i apologize i've just took a look at
29:54the clock and i went a little bit beyond
29:56what i wanted to say but
29:59i can't help myself okay i i want to be
30:03i want to present something that's
30:04valuable to you and i'm also
30:07predicting what questions might arise
30:10and i don't
30:10have a script outside of what i have in
30:12front of me so
30:15again you didn't pay for this but you
30:18should have because it's something that
30:20you're not going to learn elsewhere
30:22unless it's someone that's learned from
30:24me and they're just trying to make a
30:25youtube channel and
30:27look smart but the idea of the draw on
30:29liquidity
30:31is rooted on a higher time frame chart
30:34and one of the best ways you can do that
30:36is use a weekly chart
30:38now the weekly chart in this case here
30:41the euro
30:42we've gone from trading up here in the
30:44highs
30:45of 2018 all the way down to
30:49the march time period or so of this year
30:52in 2020 and we started the rally up
30:56from there the range that it was working
30:58within is this high
31:00to this low now right away
31:03you know you may not have seen anything
31:05down here that would be bullish
31:07and we're not going to get into that
31:08when you look at a weekly chart the only
31:10thing you need to be worrying about
31:12is is the next candle like say you're
31:15looking at it
31:16on a saturday and on saturday when the
31:18markets are not trading you want to look
31:20at your weekly chart and say okay
31:22what is the likelihood of the next
31:25candle on the weekly chart expanding
31:27higher
31:28or expanding lower that's the first step
31:32folks that's all you need to worry about
31:34initially
31:35if you can't determine what the next
31:37weekly candle is going to reach for
31:40then you have to sit on your hands and
31:42wait until monday starts trading
31:44and then usually wait until monday's
31:46done what is it done on monday
31:48has it given you any more insight or
31:50clues as to what it's trying to reach
31:52for
31:53if the weekly range is going to be an
31:55expansion on the upside
31:57i'm willing to let monday go and in one
31:59you know
32:00mondays in my trading have had sometimes
32:03really big blast off days and i missed a
32:06big portion of the weekly range
32:08i don't care i'm not beating myself up
32:11because i know
32:11what i do repeats and you'll learn that
32:15too
32:16but you won't feel that comfortable
32:19if you start by listening to the rules i
32:22give you and you see a big monday you're
32:24like oh
32:25what does ict know you missed that move
32:28yeah i probably did but i'm also finding
32:32two or three more really good setups in
32:34intro week
32:35that work within that same idea of the
32:37weekly range
32:38expanding on the upside or in the
32:41converse sense
32:42when it's bearish i could be looking for
32:44something that's going lower intra week
32:46and not requiring participation on a
32:48monday
32:49okay so what we're looking at here is
32:53a order block right here now i
32:55identified the high and the lows that we
32:57can clearly see it
32:58and the high of the order block and the
33:01low to order block that is the full
33:03range
33:03or what we're going to be using as the
33:05draw in liquidity so before this
33:08weekly range started and we're looking
33:11at
33:13december
33:1618th is friday yeah 18th
33:20uh 2020. so at the time this recording
33:23uh we only have tomorrow for the the end
33:26of the week
33:26and then there's no more trading and we
33:28stop trading for the week so
33:31we don't know what this weekly range is
33:34going to do with
33:35100 a surety we don't know that so the
33:38probabilities
33:39are is it likely to go higher or lower
33:43and the fact that we have traded from
33:45this consolidation
33:47we started to move out of it and look
33:49how many weeks we've had
33:50where it's been one big range
33:54another big range a small little
33:55indecisive range last week
33:58and then we have a nice big expansion
34:02on the weekly range here as it trades
34:04right up into that bearish order block
34:07so every single one of these weeks had
34:09opportunity even last week with the
34:11indecisiveness that the weekly range
34:13showed but here's the wonderful thing
34:16and this is where you write things down
34:19every time we move from consolidation
34:22and start to have an expansion phase
34:24you need to start considering this
34:26factor right here where is the draw on
34:28liquidity
34:30and if you get caught up in a week that
34:32is indecisive
34:34don't think that it's topping it doesn't
34:36mean that it's topping
34:38it just means that we're in another
34:40smaller period
34:41of consolidation so what's being shown
34:43here on the weekly chart is occurring
34:44here
34:45on the four hour in the one hour of this
34:48individual weekly range right there
34:51but when this happens and we're bullish
34:54if we have an indecisive candle or if we
34:56have a down candle
34:58then we have a increased probability
35:01that we're going to have a large range
35:02expansion on the upside if we are still
35:04underlyingly bullish
35:06and the market trades right up into that
35:08bearish order block right there
35:09okay so with these levels and
35:13we're going to look at a daily chart
35:17and we can start seeing this is the new
35:20trading
35:21session and this is thursday's trading
35:24wednesday tuesday and monday
35:28so we had a week that had relatively
35:31every single day it was a buying
35:32opportunity but not every single day
35:35had a obvious low risk pie
35:39but the bias was what bullish each day
35:43doesn't mean bullish daily bias
35:46means everyday trading it doesn't mean a
35:48bullish bias going in every day
35:50is an everyday opportunity to be a buyer
35:53or that you're plunging in
35:55that's why you are losing because you're
35:58thinking that
35:59everything has to be
36:03cast in stone and it's not it's not
36:06and that's the hardest thing for me to
36:08beat through the barrier of a new trader
36:11in development is that they think they
36:13have to be able to know how to do this
36:15every single day and there are and this
36:18is probably gonna be shocking to some of
36:19you
36:20i don't know sometimes i have to wait
36:22and
36:23it may require me waiting through an
36:25entire london session
36:27but then i can see what it's likely to
36:29do for the new york session
36:31or i may see something in london go in
36:34and lose
36:34and think i got it figured out in new
36:36york and then lose again and then i have
36:37to stop
36:38because i have misread it and i am wrong
36:41i don't want to go in there and throw
36:43good money after bad
36:45just to know that i'm really really
36:46wrong so
36:49that's the reason why we have to have
36:50rules okay so if the rules aren't in
36:52place and we don't know what they are
36:54then you should not be surprised when
36:55the results are lackluster or
36:58less than stellar so we're looking only
37:02for
37:02the anticipation of the ranges to expand
37:04until we get to that red line
37:06okay now the red line is just a target
37:09it doesn't mean it's going to go there
37:11in reverse it can
37:13and this is what sometimes people
37:15misinterpret
37:16oh here it comes to plan b it's not plan
37:18b that wouldn't be my trade i would
37:21never look at that and sell short
37:23i would look at that as a run up into
37:24that and once it gets there then i'm
37:27done and i move to the sidelines
37:28but some students of mine may see that
37:30say okay well i see that as an
37:31opportunity
37:32and i could sell short that and maybe
37:34get 20 pips out of that as a short
37:36because they can get a reaction there
37:39that's just not my
37:41cup of tea but it might be a student of
37:43mine so
37:44i have to be very careful how i say it
37:45because i don't want to say something
37:47that may discourage something that they
37:49have been
37:50discovering in their own studies that is
37:53framing
37:54and building their own unique trading
37:57model
37:58so i have to be very responsible in the
38:00way i speak
38:01not because i don't want to be wrong not
38:03because i'm trying to avoid
38:05you know looking uh less smart because
38:08i'm gonna be honest with you i'm not a
38:10mental giant i'm just the average guy
38:12that's been blessed by
38:13all this stuff and i didn't deserve it
38:16so when i'm teaching you i'm teaching
38:20you
38:20the most practical way of doing it
38:23and i'm being honest with you so
38:27if i tell you that this order block
38:30would be a draw on liquidity it's
38:32because it's an area
38:34where it needs to potentially trade back
38:36up into because i don't believe in
38:38support and resistance in a classical
38:39sense
38:40but that up close candle in that old
38:43consolidation back
38:44back on that weekly chart is
38:47enough for me to use as a target now it
38:50might trade even through that
38:51and go to 125s okay that doesn't
38:55mean anything to me it just means that
38:58what's the next
38:59likely upside objective and i'm going to
39:01aim for that is there enough range
39:03from where i could potentially try to
39:05enter at and that high that i'm aiming
39:07for
39:08now for some of you
39:12you may have looked at a lower level
39:14objective than
39:15what i outlined on that weekly chart it
39:17may have been just a static number of
39:19pips
39:2030 40 50 pips is there anything wrong
39:23with that
39:23if you're classifying that as your high
39:25no
39:26it could be whatever your daily range
39:30adr is okay on a five-day basis whatever
39:33the average daily range for the last
39:34five days
39:35is and you project that up as your uh
39:38forecasted high of the day and you get
39:41out there then that's it that's your
39:42trade if it keeps going up 150 pips more
39:46you have to let go of that so again
39:49bias is not perfect daily range from low
39:53to high and you got in on it
39:55there there's for some reason the idea
39:58of
39:58bias okay and i think it's
40:02mainly attributed to the fact that they
40:03seen me do many examples
40:05of getting into low getting at the high
40:07writing it out even adding
40:09into the daily range throughout the day
40:11and small little one-minute charts and
40:13such
40:14that's mastery that's something that you
40:16can't just sit down in front of a chart
40:18and watch it you know a video of mine or
40:20even a series
40:21and just think that you can do that and
40:24it happens it doesn't work that way it
40:26took me believe me it took me
40:28a long long time to be able to do that
40:31and i can't do it every single day
40:36there's days that you just can't do it
40:38and we're about to see some of that
40:40price action
40:41but you want to be looking for where the
40:42market's going to draw to because that's
40:43the most important thing that's the
40:45basis of why the market's
40:46reaching for it the markets move
40:50to go to liquidity or
40:53it goes to an area to rebalance
40:56so there's an imbalance or an
40:58inefficiency and price action
41:00it will go to those two primary drivers
41:04for
41:04price movement the third is a central
41:07bank repricing
41:09and then you have nothing that usually
41:11can
41:12forecast that it just it's there and you
41:15got crushed
41:16okay that's the risk
41:19every single time you trade these
41:20markets you are risking
41:23a unannounced something happens in the
41:26world
41:27somebody dies there's a war that breaks
41:29out something to that effect where
41:30it's an act of god or something
41:33unexpected happens
41:34and then the central bank prices in
41:38that move or that event and they do so
41:41in stunning fashion sometimes it could
41:43be a really muted
41:45movement like it could be a half a penny
41:46move which is 50 pips or it could be
41:49several pennies move which could be 500
41:52to
41:521000 pips and look at the euro and
41:56swissy when it was de-pegged
41:57and you'll see exactly what i'm
41:58referring to that's like a very very
42:01rare occurrence but hey you got to be
42:03realistic
42:05you know it could have happened to you
42:08if you were in those markets and you're
42:09crushed
42:10and that is something that you need to
42:12be mindful of you know
42:14just because you think you're trading on
42:15these intraday charts and you're day
42:16trading
42:17you think you're hop skipping through
42:19the the risk no
42:20as soon as you put in a trade and you're
42:22in there live funds you are at risk
42:25of having much more than you're
42:26comfortable with losing
42:28taken from your account and i don't want
42:31to sugarcoat
42:31anything when i'm talking to you about
42:33that that's why i tell you
42:35you can't rush this you can't think oh
42:38i've been doing it for the last five
42:39days
42:39so i'm ready for life on trading that's
42:42how it works because soon as you get in
42:44there with the live trading it's going
42:45to be oh no this doesn't work
42:47so it's not that it doesn't work it's
42:48just you're trying to do it
42:50too frequently you're forcing it and
42:52you're not following the rules
42:54so the daily chart each day had a range
42:57expansion
42:58and again we're not trying to forecast
43:00where the closing price is
43:02we're just looking for that expansion in
43:04one direction over another
43:05where it's one-sidedness that's what
43:08we're focusing on
43:09that to me is bias it's not
43:12where does the close uh finish the day
43:16in relative terms to the opening price
43:18that's that to me
43:20i could care less about that because you
43:22can make a lot of pips
43:24in environments where even in this kind
43:26of mess here
43:27and these indecisive candles here
43:29there's opportunities in here to be
43:31a buyer and you can find trades in that
43:36it's not always just down down down down
43:39this in these days here you could still
43:41have a bullish bias
43:43and get scalps it doesn't
43:46for a new student or new trader that's
43:47trying to learn how to do this
43:49when you see these down moves like that
43:51it doesn't feel like that's possible
43:53like
43:53who's buying in that a high frequency
43:56trader
43:57or a scalper or an intraday trader
44:00they don't have to be in going short and
44:03just because the daily range
44:04closes lower than the opening doesn't in
44:07any way
44:08force the idea that that's the only way
44:10to make money
44:12it just means that it provides you as
44:15the analyst
44:16and potential trader to have a framework
44:18to work within
44:20that data that daily range how are you
44:22going to interpret
44:23what the price actions doing on your
44:25chart how do you see that is there
44:27opportunity
44:28or is there a lack of opportunity that's
44:30all that's all trading is
44:32and each of us are going to have a
44:34different way of framing that
44:36where it constitutes a in our opinion
44:39a low risk high probability trade now if
44:41we were to compare notes
44:43and then had the benefit of hindsight
44:45everyone could play armchair quarterback
44:47and say
44:47yeah that wasn't a smart idea that's why
44:51you don't want to compare your notes
44:52because you're never going to get the
44:54feedback that you're hoping to get
44:57or even want because someone's always
44:59going to tell you you did something
45:00wrong
45:01you know you did something wrong if you
45:02did it wrong you don't need someone else
45:04to tell you that
45:05so all these things have to be
45:10part of your your daily bias which is a
45:12routine you do certain things and you
45:14don't do certain things
45:16you don't talk about your ideas you
45:17don't talk about what you did
45:19and that's the worst thing you can do
45:20especially if you have a winning trade
45:22everybody wants to go to social media
45:24everybody wants to go to these chat
45:25rooms these forums
45:26okay these twitters and
45:30instagrams and i want to show what they
45:31did right
45:33and i would be more interested in seeing
45:35what you
45:36learned by doing it wrong and you don't
45:39see that
45:40and that's how real traders develop
45:43a real teacher will encourage the
45:45student to delve into
45:48why they keep making the mistakes but
45:50not beating themselves up about it
45:52so you have to blend that in keep that
45:54in there because
45:56for some of you that are shaking your
45:57head said see you're not teaching bias
45:58you're talking about something else
45:59you're talking about
46:00psychology you know i want to talk about
46:02bias
46:03that is a critical part
46:07because what you think is a bias is
46:10going to have a
46:11huge impact if you're right and wrong
46:14when using that said bias and you need
46:17to understand
46:18that just simply because you think it's
46:20going to go up doesn't mean it's going
46:21to go up
46:22or if you think it's going to go down it
46:25might go down but it might
46:26not go to the target you're reaching for
46:29and you hold on for too long
46:30and it reverses on you how's that going
46:32to make you feel
46:34does it mean abandon the model does it
46:36mean abandon the ideas that you use to
46:37get in that trade
46:38you're going to feel like doing that and
46:41you're gonna be going into these
46:42chat rooms and forums and looking at who
46:44has a course here who has this
46:46who's trading good right now i need to
46:47follow them
46:50and it's all gonna be hinged on this
46:53topic right here
46:54bias i have a bias
46:57every single day does not mean my bias
47:00pans out
47:01to script it just means the days of the
47:04week i think that that bias
47:06may be unfolding for instance i'll give
47:10an example
47:12i've been bullish on euro tens of
47:14thousands of people know that i have
47:16been bullish on euro and it's trading at
47:18levels that i was pointing to before the
47:20fact
47:22every single day doesn't mean i'm going
47:24in there buying
47:26during london trying to capture the low
47:27of the day
47:29i have to use the economic calendar and
47:31i'm framing
47:33my projected bias that i've already
47:35arrived at on the weekend
47:37so i'm looking at things on saturday or
47:39if i do my analysis on
47:40friday whatever it is i've arrived at
47:44for bias
47:45that is what i'm looking at every single
47:47day of the coming week
47:49so it's a pre pre-determined
47:52daily bias but it's a
47:56soft analysis concept in other words i'm
47:59not going in there forcing that
48:01i have to go in and see does the market
48:03support that and does it keep giving me
48:04clues which is what we're going to talk
48:06about next with institutional overflow
48:08you need to have some things in your
48:10favor
48:11not just simply because you have a gut
48:13feeling it's going to go up
48:14so therefore every single day in london
48:16i'm going to try to buy the low of the
48:17day
48:17no i'm looking for days that have a high
48:20impact
48:20or medium impact news event at a
48:23specific time of day whether it be
48:25london or new york at a specific
48:29level in a currency that lines up with
48:34something i've either
48:35pointed to with my students or
48:38i have thought about in
48:42the trading that took place on monday
48:44because maybe i have
48:45even though i have a bias it may require
48:48monday's trading for me to feel
48:49confident
48:50to go in there trading on tuesday and
48:52wednesday or maybe even thursday
48:55so let's go into the
48:58hourly chart and you can see this is the
49:01hourly chart for this particular trading
49:02week for euro
49:04and you can see ahead of fomc which was
49:07occurring on
49:082 p.m here one wednesday
49:12and prior to that we had consolidation
49:14you see that
49:16consolidation which was that part of
49:19that larger daily
49:21consolidation phase so it wasn't really
49:23trying to do anything yet
49:25but this level up here was still in play
49:28that's what we would be looking for for
49:30what the draw on liquidity which is what
49:32this high of the day that we're aiming
49:34for which is what
49:35what we're trying to get to after buying
49:38below the opening price or very close to
49:40it
49:41you see how we're starting to flesh out
49:43bias now again
49:45every single day here's monday's trading
49:48indecisive
49:49okay here's midnight new york time
49:52so the opening price is down here it
49:55doesn't really drop down
49:56until there which is later in the day
50:00and it goes up a little bit and
50:01consolidates and goes one more time
50:03drops
50:05now in here we have the opening price
50:07and it does drop below that
50:08and it drops below a short term low here
50:11and
50:12that right there might be something to
50:14look at
50:15with a closer eye with in terms of the
50:18dollar index
50:19is there something here that shows
50:21there's a reason to be anticipating this
50:23as a buy
50:24i'll leave that for your study but then
50:27the market goes in consolidation again
50:29and
50:29the next day on the day of fomc we have
50:32the opening price it drops down
50:33initially and then rallies big
50:35you see that but then what happens
50:38as we get closer and closer to the fmc
50:41when fmc comes out
50:42they use that as a catalyst to drive
50:45down below
50:47south side liquidity but they leave
50:49these here
50:51okay you see that not every relative
50:54equal low
50:55is ripe for the taking so it's important
50:58you understand that
51:00just simply because you see these
51:02relative equal lows
51:03and a lot of folks are really warming up
51:05to that idea
51:06and they're making courses now around it
51:08but this
51:10isn't always the reason you have to have
51:12a narrative
51:13and the narrative is we've already shown
51:15a willingness to go higher
51:17and this run down here is just to upset
51:19anyone that's already long so they don't
51:21get a chance to participate
51:22in the upside after fmc comes out
51:25so when you see this move down here
51:28as a developing student or a neophyte
51:31trader you'll be
51:32looking at that and be afraid and you'll
51:35cancel
51:36many times or abandon your bias i don't
51:39and my students don't
51:40we don't do that we on we anticipate
51:43this as likely manipulation
51:46the narrative is the market's
51:48consolidating
51:50they have a willingness to go higher but
51:52they're coming back down to knock out
51:54individuals that were already a
51:55participant
51:56buying in here and they they're on the
51:59markets
52:00correct side now but they want to knock
52:02them out
52:03that's why the algorithm does that okay
52:06this is not
52:06a whole bunch of people selling it's not
52:10a whole group of buyers no longer
52:13interested in buying
52:14so therefore then the market drops down
52:16this is all engineered
52:18and that's the part that gets under
52:20people's skin because
52:21they don't like the sound of that they
52:23like to trust their
52:25buying and selling pressure ideas and
52:27buying you know supply and demand
52:28factors
52:30the forex is not based on that it's all
52:33100 controlled
52:34and i know somebody's hearing that and
52:36they're saying oh this guy's full of it
52:38i'm going to turn the video off
52:39good day doesn't change anything it's
52:42still true
52:42and you don't have to believe it but i'm
52:44challenging you to go in
52:46and look at the things i teach and
52:47you'll come away really quickly
52:49saying yeah there's this absolutely no
52:51way that this isn't controlled and it's
52:53engineered so when they take the
52:55liquidity out
52:57and those traders that are now long get
52:59knocked out
53:00they're not going to want to go back in
53:03when it starts to go up they're going to
53:04be afraid
53:05why because they refer back to that bias
53:08that they had has caused a painful event
53:11they got stopped out
53:13so like a deer in headlights they're
53:15gonna watch
53:16that mack truck come right at them and
53:18if you've ever traded with live funds
53:21you know exactly what i'm talking about
53:23you have had this happen to you maybe
53:24not on fomc but other instances where
53:26you got stopped out
53:28and you're afraid to get back in even
53:30though
53:31you have an idea that the market might
53:34want to go
53:35go up or go lower once you get stopped
53:38out
53:39how are you in terms of
53:42trusting your initial analysis because
53:45that's a sign of maturity it doesn't
53:48mean that you're a gambler and you're
53:49trying to force a trade
53:51this is something that we anticipate
53:53knowing the things that i teach
53:55so when we see this we knew in the
53:57economic counter last week
53:58the fmc was coming and we know that fmc
54:02generally causes an upset in the
54:04marketplace
54:05it's many times like a non-farm payroll
54:08so when non-farm payroll fridays come we
54:11anticipate
54:12some wonky price action but
54:15it's beneficial to know what it is
54:17because many times it sets the stage for
54:19the opposite direction of what we see on
54:22non-farm payroll
54:23that's why daily bias is really not
54:25important on that day
54:26but i like it to to use it as
54:29kind of a judas swing for the month so
54:34while we don't generally like to trade
54:35during or ahead of fomc
54:37we get the information that it provides
54:39us and trading down here
54:41it went to a level and into an area
54:43where we have already
54:44mapped out and i know that sounds like
54:46i'm dangling a carrot
54:47okay but i'd like to do this to reward
54:51the people that are under my wing that
54:53are studying
54:54okay in the mentorship they know what
54:57that did
54:58okay if you can't be a part of
55:00mentorship it's not something to feel
55:02bad about
55:03all i'm saying is it's
55:06an encouragement for them just like i'm
55:08encouraging all of you that are not ever
55:09going to be in the mentorship
55:11this lesson's for you this stuff is for
55:14you i'm doing it for free
55:16i'm giving you my time so you can't be
55:17upset when i'm
55:19also here giving my private group
55:22a little nudge and saying see the things
55:26that i talk about here are not going to
55:28be the same depth
55:29of what i teach in mentorship but it
55:31doesn't mean the things that i'm
55:32teaching here are any
55:34less valuable because they are but
55:37you're not entitled to have what they
55:38have because they paid the price to get
55:40there
55:41but you're not entitled for me to do
55:43these lessons for you either
55:45but yet i do it because i love it so
55:49don't look at this and send me hate mail
55:51okay and say
55:52you're selling your mentorship because
55:54honestly i've taken the video down
55:56because we got too many of them i'm not
55:57saying we won't give it another
55:59opportunity
55:59but we got slammed and i'm afraid i'm
56:02going to take more people than we can
56:04handle
56:05but this action in here it went back
56:08back down into an area where we had
56:10already outlined
56:12and when my students see that or when
56:15you see it trade up to the order block
56:16which is some and something you
56:17understand by the youtube channel
56:19content you know what an order block is
56:22so it's trading back up to that level as
56:25a target
56:26again some of you may see that as an
56:28objective to go short
56:29i don't see that personally but you
56:32might and i
56:33may be your model but when we look at
56:37the price action
56:38after it creates this manipulation
56:41we look at this right here
56:44institutional overflow now notice how
56:47every single day
56:48it's been consolidation a little
56:51a little weird in terms of its delivery
56:54that's been consolidating
56:55and we get this first pump up here then
56:58it drives
56:58down okay what did it do there
57:02it took buy stops out initially
57:06then ran for the cell stops right here
57:09is one of those moments when you want to
57:10write down in your notes because
57:12if you do not do this you are missing
57:16out
57:16on the golden teaching of this lesson
57:20what's the bias i told you bullish
57:24okay if it's been bullish
57:27and we see a consolidation and it runs
57:30what side of the marketplace first
57:32the buy side so it's doing what taking
57:35those traders
57:35out that we're short they're stopped out
57:39it's taking traders in that want to buy
57:42on a breakout
57:43and then attacking what their sell stop
57:47so what is the narrative here
57:50consolidation was underlying bullish
57:53bias
57:56fomc is the high impact news event for
57:59euro for the week
58:00the market breaks out of the
58:02consolidation takes buy side out
58:04trips traders long then attacks
58:08them if it does this on
58:11fomc or if it does something like this
58:14at any medium or high impact news event
58:16you
58:17have a trade
58:20you can be a buyer down here or you wait
58:23for any type of small little retracement
58:26as it starts to move back up
58:32right in here small little retracement
58:34here as it's pulling back
58:37remember this line should be on your
58:39chart or
58:41at least in your notes saying okay this
58:42is where i'm aiming for so anytime you
58:44have down candles
58:46think about this right here
58:47institutional order flow
58:49if you're bullish and we had some type
58:51of manipulation a stop run
58:53the market is now allowed to move higher
58:57and reprice higher it won't always give
59:00you a run
59:01optimal trade entry buy more run optimal
59:04trade entry buy more it won't do that
59:06when we're close to a higher time frame
59:10higher time frame target in this case
59:13you're going to see
59:13less pullbacks because it's just going
59:16to keep
59:18repricing until it gets to the objective
59:20and again i'm not trying to frame the
59:21idea that this is the high or top in the
59:23marketplace for euro
59:24i'm just saying that this is something
59:26that would
59:28finish the idea for me for the week and
59:31i wouldn't try to do anything on a
59:32friday the trade let's put it that way
59:34now if this was trading here on
59:36wednesday
59:37and say this is like wednesday new york
59:40i would still look to see if it had more
59:41room to go
59:42up for the week but i wouldn't be so
59:46overwhelmingly you know bullish
59:49to allow more risk or i wouldn't use my
59:51maximum risk
59:52i would use one quarter of what i would
59:55normally risk
59:56because of the time element you think
59:58it's a
59:59cut and dry easy bias is this or that
1:00:02and
1:00:03that's why i tell everyone that i can
1:00:06give you ideas
1:00:07to give you bias but you're going to
1:00:09fail on something else
1:00:11and that's why these videos which i go
1:00:12into with well-meaning
1:00:15you're trying to make them short and
1:00:16concise because i get a lot of people
1:00:18that are impatient or new and they think
1:00:20that just tell me get to the point
1:00:22and this whole video is the point
1:00:25there these are all millionaire making
1:00:27concepts
1:00:29helping you understand bias i'm showing
1:00:31you
1:00:32how you're going to fail using ideas
1:00:35that you can learn
1:00:37from this youtube channel and i did not
1:00:38mess up saying that
1:00:40because everyone thinks like at the
1:00:42beginning slide on this
1:00:44presentation everyone thinks that if
1:00:45you're bullish it should be open
1:00:47down by up close and close on the high
1:00:51and it isn't going to always be like
1:00:53that the market structure that's in play
1:00:55which is what we have been contending
1:00:57with all through here is a larger term
1:01:01consolidation on a higher time frame on
1:01:03the daily chart
1:01:05so in the arrow you can really see it's
1:01:08clearly defined as a consolidation
1:01:10and then you have this and so it shows
1:01:13you
1:01:14that yes it's time what's the time for
1:01:17it's going to run higher
1:01:19but what is it doing it takes the retail
1:01:21traders short out
1:01:23and puts them in long then raids them
1:01:28so who's in the marketplace now no one
1:01:32not retail now i'm not saying
1:01:36something you're going oh i was in this
1:01:37trade what are you talking about what
1:01:38i'm saying is this event here
1:01:40takes into account near-term liquidity
1:01:44so the open float above these highs here
1:01:46they attack that for two reasons
1:01:49neutralize shorts engineer new entries
1:01:53on a breakout with
1:01:54buy stops so traders that want to buy
1:01:57when it breaks above here
1:01:58because they may have a bullish bias too
1:02:00and if it goes up here they think it's
1:02:02going to keep on going
1:02:03well the algorithm has something for
1:02:05them too it runs
1:02:06up puts the shorts out
1:02:09and puts the longs in then attacks them
1:02:13why does it do that think about it why
1:02:16would it want to do that
1:02:19well i'm trying not to personify the
1:02:20algorithm but the logic behind it is
1:02:24the shorts is not going to make any
1:02:26money okay shorts aren't going to make
1:02:28any money
1:02:28so that's just they're just a casualty
1:02:32of war
1:02:33the buy side liquidity they want to set
1:02:35what in motion
1:02:37they want to put traders in long
1:02:41why because that's going to engineer new
1:02:45sellers below the market at this time
1:02:49so where are they going to look for that
1:02:51below here
1:02:53so what's going to be below here once
1:02:55this move happened
1:02:56sell side liquidity is going to
1:02:59immediately enter the marketplace where
1:03:00it wasn't there before
1:03:02because it ran out it took the buy side
1:03:04liquidity out here
1:03:06now once it does that the algorithm is
1:03:09designed
1:03:10to go back down here because of the
1:03:14the mindset of traders they're going to
1:03:16be buying all this they're going to
1:03:17chase it
1:03:18and when you buy something how do you
1:03:19protect that position
1:03:21you put a sell stop when okay so where's
1:03:23the sales stock going to go right below
1:03:24here
1:03:26okay great when the market trades down
1:03:29there what does that facilitate for the
1:03:30smart money trader
1:03:32they can buy those sell stops so those
1:03:35sellers are being paired up with
1:03:37more in form traders
1:03:41so they're buying at the low of the day
1:03:42during fomc scooping up that
1:03:45and rallying up and notice how every
1:03:47time
1:03:48we have down closed candles like all
1:03:50this is one two
1:03:51three down closed candles consecutively
1:03:54so what happens is the market trades
1:03:55above it here
1:03:56and then works back down into it that's
1:03:58working in an order block
1:04:00so this is a buying opportunity rally's
1:04:03up here's a down closed candle right
1:04:05there
1:04:05it's small but what would you expect
1:04:08after the down closed candle
1:04:09range expansion on the upside
1:04:12down closed candles range expansion down
1:04:15close candle
1:04:16range expansion down close candle range
1:04:19expansion
1:04:19down close candle up candle down close
1:04:22candle
1:04:23up candle and now we're at the objective
1:04:25of the order block
1:04:26that's institutional order flow in
1:04:29instances where you're bullish okay
1:04:32anytime you see a down closed candle
1:04:34that's an opportunity to get ready
1:04:36because we're going to see another range
1:04:37expansion on the upside
1:04:39that's institutional overflow now that's
1:04:41not everything about institutional
1:04:43overflow
1:04:43but it's how you watch the tape
1:04:46you don't look at down moves and grow
1:04:50disenchanted or impatient thinking i'm
1:04:52wrong or second guess yourself
1:04:54you anticipate the next drive higher
1:04:58in the candles that form after these
1:05:00clothes
1:05:01on the downside like these little down
1:05:03black candles
1:05:04the next candles in my chart should be
1:05:06green and every time you start seeing
1:05:09that
1:05:09okay it's confirming that you're on side
1:05:13that means you're on the right side of
1:05:14the marketplace do not be fearful
1:05:16of down close candles or consolidation
1:05:19that's the normal ebb and flow of the
1:05:21marketplace
1:05:22but you need to see this live and you
1:05:25can't just
1:05:25watch it on the replay button of trading
1:05:27view it doesn't
1:05:29communicate the same way
1:05:34moving into the 15 minute time frame to
1:05:36close this up you can see again
1:05:39nice clean levels punches down on fmc
1:05:43rallies back up trades back down into
1:05:46the order block
1:05:47relative to the hourly chart you see
1:05:49that here
1:05:50rallies up again trades back down into
1:05:52what this down closed candle which is a
1:05:54bullish order block
1:05:55there rallies up down close candles
1:05:59green down close candles
1:06:02green a little bit of consolidation in
1:06:05here
1:06:06and another leg up each time but every
1:06:09single time you see down closed candles
1:06:11you as a retail trader or a neophyte
1:06:14that
1:06:15is normal for you to feel that way
1:06:18you want every candle to be going in
1:06:20your direction as a new trader
1:06:22and you don't like the uncomfortable
1:06:24feeling of when it's
1:06:25pausing or having a little bit of
1:06:27retracement you lose your mind over that
1:06:29and i used to do the same thing because
1:06:31i was over
1:06:32leveraging i was doing crazy stuff
1:06:35with little accounts when i first began
1:06:37i had no idea what i was doing i had no
1:06:38stop loss on
1:06:40it was madness the only way you're going
1:06:43to learn how to trust
1:06:44daily bias and know when it's favorable
1:06:48is by understanding the economic
1:06:50calendar market structure
1:06:52and understanding institutional overflow
1:06:55the institutional order flow is the last
1:06:57thing in this list but this right here
1:07:00is assuming that you know what this is
1:07:02the draw on liquidity
1:07:03and that's assuming you know how to find
1:07:05a high when you're bullish
1:07:07and knowing that you're going to be
1:07:08buying at or just below the opening
1:07:10price
1:07:11or near it in new york
1:07:14and that's going to give you the
1:07:15architecture of the daily range that you
1:07:16can trust
1:07:18but you will not do it right away
1:07:22and you have to go through months and
1:07:25months of
1:07:26drills and practicing and over time
1:07:30you will pick up on little subtle
1:07:32characteristics of the things i've
1:07:33already taught in this youtube channel
1:07:35and in this lesson here it'll start
1:07:37making more sense to you and you
1:07:39won't fear it see that's what you're
1:07:42you're fearful of you're fearful of
1:07:45getting it wrong see what you are asking
1:07:46me is michael
1:07:48teach me the secret so that way i know
1:07:49when the daily bias is right
1:07:51and avoid the times when i'm when it's
1:07:54gonna be wrong
1:07:55and i don't have that 100
1:07:58accuracy i don't have that
1:08:02i'm in the 90s but that's still
1:08:06relying on a great deal of experience i
1:08:08don't go in there every single day
1:08:09trying to do something
1:08:11i mean i can and i'm going to lose
1:08:14eventually if i do that i'm going to
1:08:15lose more than i
1:08:16am willing to lose but when you're
1:08:19practicing and learning how to do this
1:08:21you need to invite the losses and don't
1:08:24be fearful of it and it sounds
1:08:26counterproductive it's
1:08:28it's counterintuitive to you to hear
1:08:29that saying hey look you know go in
1:08:31there and
1:08:32welcome being wrong because it doesn't
1:08:35make any sense to you you want to be
1:08:36doing this right away
1:08:38perfectly and making money and daily
1:08:40bias
1:08:41can't be derived without going through
1:08:44growing pains
1:08:45there is not a teacher there is not a
1:08:48mentor there is not a traitor educator
1:08:50guy out there or gal
1:08:52that's going to sit down with you and
1:08:54say here's what you do
1:08:56and follow this recipe and you won't
1:08:58have any growing pains
1:09:00and it's going to be easy you're going
1:09:00to make money right away just go in and
1:09:02start a live account
1:09:04because that's what you think is
1:09:05available and some of you think that's
1:09:07going to happen with me
1:09:08and i'm telling you and i've said it
1:09:10many times in other videos
1:09:12i don't do that i'm teaching you
1:09:15exactly what you need to know and how to
1:09:18get it
1:09:20but you you want a shortcut you want to
1:09:22get around the work of it
1:09:24and just oh i know how to do it because
1:09:26i watched the video
1:09:27man i wish it was like that i wish it
1:09:30was i really wish it was
1:09:32but it's not everything is
1:09:36a process and because there's so many
1:09:39factors in this and it's the world's
1:09:42most
1:09:42difficult puzzle you're dealing with the
1:09:46banks
1:09:46all around the world and these people
1:09:48are extremely greedy
1:09:50and they don't want you in their
1:09:52playground
1:09:53you're not supposed to be here so as a
1:09:56reminder
1:09:57just letting you know daily bias is
1:10:00possible but daily bias is not everyday
1:10:04bias not in the sense that it's going to
1:10:06pan out every single day the same way
1:10:08you want it to
1:10:10but if you are looking at a higher time
1:10:12frame chart
1:10:13and you're trying to predict the more
1:10:16upside or the more downside on the
1:10:19weekly range
1:10:20that's about to perform if you spend
1:10:23time
1:10:24with trying to do that and sometimes
1:10:26even submitting to
1:10:28monday's trading and let monday tell you
1:10:29what it's likely to do
1:10:31go in here and start looking for
1:10:3215-minute chart highs and lows and
1:10:34hourly highs and lows and you'll see
1:10:36what it's going to most likely run to
1:10:37and does that fit your expectation for
1:10:40the weekly range is it likely to expand
1:10:42up
1:10:43and then when monday's trading happens
1:10:45does it still leave equal highs
1:10:47well it might be running those on
1:10:48tuesday and wednesday so what would that
1:10:50be
1:10:51suggesting to you that your idea about
1:10:53that weekly range expanding on the
1:10:54upside
1:10:55and your bias for being a bullish
1:10:58trader that might be something you could
1:11:01be
1:11:02probing on tuesday and wednesday of that
1:11:04particular week
1:11:05especially if there's a high impact or
1:11:08medium impact news driver
1:11:10thrown in london session and or the new
1:11:12york session
1:11:14so you're blending time and price and
1:11:16you're also
1:11:17incorporating the narrative idea
1:11:20you have to have an idea why these
1:11:21markets should be going where they're
1:11:22going
1:11:23and when you blend all these things
1:11:25together then
1:11:27you'll have a clear picture may not be
1:11:29high resolution in the beginning because
1:11:31you're developing
1:11:32but eventually over time you'll have 4k
1:11:34resolution on the days that it matters
1:11:37it's not an everyday bias even though
1:11:40you have a preconceived idea what the
1:11:42bias should be
1:11:44you may go into the marketplace and see
1:11:45something that completely negates that
1:11:46whole idea
1:11:48and you have to be flexible with that
1:11:49remember i mentioned that earlier in the
1:11:51video
1:11:52what does that mean not being mad that
1:11:54it didn't give you a setup or if you
1:11:56missed it
1:11:57you're not mad about that or if you
1:11:59tried something and you got stopped out
1:12:01and you were wrong
1:12:02you don't get mad about that either and
1:12:04you don't necessarily abandon the bias
1:12:08if you take a long and you're expecting
1:12:10a big range on the upside
1:12:13and it creates a down day and stops you
1:12:14out
1:12:16should you abandon that bias no because
1:12:18as i mentioned
1:12:19earlier in the video if you have a down
1:12:21day when it's underlyingly bullish
1:12:23many times right after that down candle
1:12:25in a daily chart
1:12:26you have a really big upside day or a
1:12:30series of updates
1:12:32so try not to just throw out
1:12:35the idea that if you get it wrong that
1:12:38your bias is wrong
1:12:40that's why it's important to be focusing
1:12:41on these higher time frame charts and
1:12:43getting a feel for what they're reaching
1:12:45for and if you operate in that context
1:12:48you're gonna find that it's not as hard
1:12:50as you think it is right now
1:12:52but all these things i've given to you
1:12:53here are not trying to
1:12:55complicate bias but i'm just trying to
1:12:58show you
1:12:58all the fact and these aren't all of
1:13:00them but there's other factors that
1:13:03lead to understanding when the bias is
1:13:06bullish or bearish
1:13:07and for that very day and the key is
1:13:10understanding that calendar
1:13:12and market structure and if you
1:13:14understand those
1:13:15and you can see what you're looking for
1:13:16for the next draw on liquidity you can
1:13:18see that there's
1:13:19several ingredients that's necessary for
1:13:21that recipe to deliver
1:13:23bias at least a meaningful and quote
1:13:25unquote
1:13:26profitable bias so hopefully you got
1:13:30something out of this
1:13:31i'm sure it made all kinds of new
1:13:32questions in your mind maybe i bored you
1:13:34maybe i've
1:13:34completely confused you to the point
1:13:36where you don't even think it's possible
1:13:38now
1:13:39and i can tell you if that's happened
1:13:41you're you're a new student
1:13:43and that's normal it's absolutely normal
1:13:45for
1:13:46you to feel that way so
1:13:50take notes watch it a couple times and
1:13:52go into your charts
1:13:53and you'll see what i'm talking about is
1:13:56there
1:13:56and it's not just once in a while it's
1:13:59there a lot
1:14:00and when you see these things come
1:14:02together you'll know
1:14:03how it is that i'm able to and my group
1:14:06is able to go in and see the market and
1:14:08say okay
1:14:09it's likely to go up this day or it's
1:14:10going to be bullish this week or bearish
1:14:11this week it's going to be reaching for
1:14:12this particular target
1:14:14and then once you have that framework
1:14:17if you have a setup like optimal trade
1:14:19entry or if you like to trade bullish
1:14:20order blocks or bearish order blocks or
1:14:21like
1:14:22breakers okay if you like my ict breaker
1:14:25that pattern is what you would go in
1:14:27here and hunt
1:14:29and that's your that's your model and
1:14:32you just apply some kind of a
1:14:34a money management idea to it and there
1:14:36it is so
1:14:38this was my short rendition this could
1:14:40have easily been a four hour
1:14:42video and uh
1:14:45i i every time i say i'm gonna do a
1:14:46short video it always goes a little bit
1:14:48longer than i wanted to but
1:14:50i would have loved to have had the
1:14:52information i've given you here tonight
1:14:53when i first started
1:14:56i was extremely interested in going
1:14:59through charts all the time
1:15:00i worked my rear end off studying and
1:15:03looking at data
1:15:04and completely becoming an animal
1:15:08like a savage with looking at price
1:15:10action
1:15:11and running scenarios running system
1:15:14tests
1:15:15you know i had tradestation and
1:15:17supercharged and metastock
1:15:19in my earlier years and
1:15:22i did a lot of computations and
1:15:24programming and things and
1:15:26i can tell you all of that stuff while
1:15:28it was fun to do
1:15:30it's it's not as good as just simply
1:15:31taking a chart using logic like i just
1:15:33gave you here
1:15:34and going through by hand manually and
1:15:37it feels
1:15:38like there's no way i should be doing
1:15:39that i see with technology the way it is
1:15:42but i promise you if you do it that way
1:15:46you're going to get closer to the
1:15:46marketplace because it's going to be
1:15:49meaningful to you
1:15:49you're going to write your own
1:15:51annotations on the chart you're not
1:15:52having some kind of number cruncher
1:15:54you know i know there's quants in my
1:15:58audience and and student group
1:16:01and while they're brilliant people
1:16:06there's certain advantages to being in
1:16:09here and
1:16:10handling the data manually and then it
1:16:12will give you an insight that you can
1:16:14use if you want to be programming some
1:16:15of these things
1:16:16it'll give you some insight to how you
1:16:20can bridge that
1:16:21because it's not always simply well i'm
1:16:24going to buy a down closed candle
1:16:25because it's a bullet shorter block
1:16:26there's
1:16:26things that have to be in play and not
1:16:29everything can be programmed
1:16:31there has to be filters and not every
1:16:33filter can be programmed
1:16:35and i knew that because i am a computer
1:16:37programmer at heart
1:16:39i was making my own programs when i was
1:16:40in sixth grade so
1:16:43anyway i think i've given you a lot
1:16:47tonight for daily bias i've shown you
1:16:48when it's operable
1:16:50and it's not the classic open low of the
1:16:53day
1:16:53and close on the high when it's a
1:16:55bullish scenario
1:16:56despite being and having had a bullish
1:16:59scenario
1:17:00and bias for euro and this is what we
1:17:03are sometimes contending with
1:17:05and you either have to submit to that
1:17:08and say okay nothing's broken
1:17:10no harm no foul or know where to get in
1:17:13and operate
1:17:13in that context and then
1:17:16you will be a master of bias you'll know
1:17:19what it is that you're going to do when
1:17:20you're going to do it and why you're
1:17:21doing it
1:17:23and that's important but it isn't always
1:17:26a
1:17:27one shot here's a video and this is how
1:17:30you know when it's going to be a bullish
1:17:31or bearish day
1:17:33it's it it's very frustrating for me
1:17:36as an educator to to talk about this one
1:17:40particular topic
1:17:42and i know it feels like i'm holding
1:17:44something back
1:17:46but i gave you some things that i teach
1:17:48in mentorship even in this lesson
1:17:50i didn't draw any special light to it
1:17:53but it's here
1:17:54and if you do the work and go through
1:17:56your charts and see it
1:17:58you're going to see price differently
1:18:00than you did prior to watching this
1:18:01video
1:18:02you're also going to respect the days
1:18:04that aren't that classic by day
1:18:06as i've outlined in the first slide of
1:18:08this video
1:18:10where the daily range is that open high
1:18:11low close bar and it's just a perfect
1:18:13up day that's classic not every day is a
1:18:17classic day
1:18:18so you're going to be met with these
1:18:20types of scenarios and
1:18:21and for your notes we are in a time of
1:18:24the year
1:18:25when this is kind of like what you
1:18:27expect you know a lot of
1:18:29consolidation everybody's trying not to
1:18:31take new risks
1:18:32because the money they've made all year
1:18:35this whole year
1:18:36they're not really trying to move around
1:18:37too much and the banks know that so
1:18:39they're not going to try to be
1:18:40repricing aggressively now we do have
1:18:42things in the states
1:18:43that are being challenged and i'm not
1:18:45going to say anything more than that
1:18:47but that could potentially cause some
1:18:51kind of
1:18:52event where the markets can reprice
1:18:54aggressively and that's why i've warned
1:18:56uh normally i wouldn't have any
1:18:58expectation of something to happen but
1:19:00because of the circumstances that we
1:19:02have here in the united states
1:19:04at present for the last month or so
1:19:07we could have something that would draw
1:19:09more volatility in that would
1:19:11normally not be present this time of
1:19:13year
1:19:14so this time of year from a seasonal
1:19:16standpoint it's usually quiet
1:19:17things get real real quiet and the daily
1:19:20ranges tend to be really
1:19:22lackluster so it usually carries over
1:19:25into
1:19:27most of january and i usually start my
1:19:30own trading
1:19:31in february of the following year
1:19:34i used to do the second week of january
1:19:37i would start trading it then um and
1:19:40then i just grew into this letting them
1:19:41have the entire month of january
1:19:44and uh once february usually starts
1:19:47it's usually very easy for me to go in
1:19:50there and get in sync with the
1:19:51marketplace
1:19:52so that's this is going to toss that in
1:19:55there an extra charge
1:19:57and i'm not sure when i'm going to do
1:19:59another video
1:20:00i'm not certain i'm going to be able to
1:20:01put one up before christmas
1:20:03so i'm going to take this opportunity to
1:20:06extend a very warm
1:20:08and heartfelt merry christmas and
1:20:11i know 2020 has been a very challenging
1:20:13year
1:20:14if you have had trouble this year
1:20:16trading if you had trouble with your
1:20:18analysis
1:20:19i have been on record several times
1:20:22this year has been the hardest year
1:20:26except for my first year which is
1:20:27everybody's the hardest year
1:20:29but i didn't really know what i was
1:20:30doing back then but i know what i'm
1:20:32doing
1:20:33now and i have been very candid with my
1:20:36own group
1:20:36and the few times i've talked about it
1:20:38on youtube this year has been
1:20:41very very hard usually it's very easy
1:20:44for me to get in and find all kinds of
1:20:45setups
1:20:46but because of all the the the things
1:20:49that we had to deal with globally
1:20:51and you know what i'm talking about it's
1:20:54a learning experience and brexit was
1:20:58another learning experience for me and
1:20:59i'm still learning from that as well
1:21:01so you're never 100
1:21:05master of everything you just master
1:21:07yourself
1:21:08and you master your unique model and
1:21:12daily bias is just one component it's
1:21:14not the answer
1:21:16so don't feel that you need to send me
1:21:17an email in the future
1:21:19and or even after this one and say well
1:21:21if you teach me bias i still think it's
1:21:22gonna cause it's not that's not the
1:21:24that's not the silver bullet that's not
1:21:26the the magic formula okay or ingredient
1:21:29for this recipe of uh
1:21:30being consistently profitable you you
1:21:33can actually
1:21:34go in with a bias that would be against
1:21:38what i just outlined here and still find
1:21:39trades that are profitable
1:21:41what do you say yeah
1:21:44they're look i'm not teaching the only
1:21:48ways to skin a cat
1:21:49there's lots of people out there that
1:21:50trade opposed to what i do and still can
1:21:53find profitability
1:21:55i'm just showing you how the markets
1:21:57really reprice and how you can operate
1:21:59net with
1:21:59no real stress doesn't mean you're not
1:22:01going to have losses you will
1:22:03but don't think that the things i've
1:22:06outlined here
1:22:08are the only way of doing it because
1:22:10it's not
1:22:11you can do things that would be contrary
1:22:13to what i just said here
1:22:15and again as a new student or a new
1:22:17trader that just completely
1:22:19short-circuited you like what did you
1:22:21just say then how could it be true
1:22:24that's the beautiful thing about trading
1:22:26there's room
1:22:28on both sides but you have to know why
1:22:30you're doing it
1:22:31and how long you're going to do it for
1:22:34everything
1:22:35is scalable and just because the bias
1:22:38may be bullish
1:22:39doesn't mean someone that has an ideal
1:22:41scenario that could be a short seller
1:22:43doesn't mean they can't look at these
1:22:44environments where they may be aware
1:22:46that it may be bullish but they also
1:22:47know how to get some kind of a climax
1:22:49short-term reversal and that's their
1:22:51scalp that's their trade that's their
1:22:53bread and butter
1:22:54even though they may feel that it's
1:22:56underlyingly bullish
1:22:58their niche is i'm going to capitalize
1:23:00on that little short
1:23:01surgical strike where it just pulls back
1:23:03because it doesn't fit their
1:23:05personality to go in sync with it
1:23:06despite it being obvious to them they
1:23:08know it
1:23:09because i have people in my group that's
1:23:11like this and
1:23:12if we were all sitting in a group we
1:23:14would be like are you drunk
1:23:17why would you think that way and i get
1:23:19it
1:23:20i get it but other students wouldn't and
1:23:23it would make them second guess their
1:23:24own model
1:23:26so if you have something that works for
1:23:28you
1:23:29the best thing in the world for you to
1:23:30do is keep it to yourself
1:23:32just keep it to yourself because you're
1:23:34never going to hear what you want other
1:23:35people to tell you
1:23:37and so many of you want to be right on
1:23:40your daily bias so that way you can
1:23:42start telling everybody how well you're
1:23:43doing
1:23:44and first of all no one's going to
1:23:45believe that you're doing it okay period
1:23:49no one's going to believe that you're
1:23:51consistent with it even if you show them
1:23:52statements even if you give them a myfix
1:23:54book
1:23:54they're going to say somebody's rigging
1:23:56the system
1:23:58the fact that you know it's real and
1:24:00then
1:24:01someone else says to you that it isn't
1:24:03it's going to get under your skin
1:24:05and it's going to be like oh i need to
1:24:07you know i need to prove something to
1:24:08them
1:24:09and then you're going to start doing
1:24:10something outside your model
1:24:12doing things to push the issue and then
1:24:14when you do it wrong
1:24:16and you do lose money you're gonna be
1:24:18regretful even more because
1:24:19you can't tell them you just lost trying
1:24:21to prove them wrong
1:24:23so now you're sitting in quiet silence
1:24:25to yourself sulking
1:24:27because you did something emotionally
1:24:32you know who you are you're you're
1:24:34nodding your head right now yeah i know
1:24:36that's that's probably what i would be
1:24:37doing
1:24:38it is it's exactly what you would be
1:24:39doing i know because i should do that as
1:24:41a young man
1:24:43so i've done all this stuff before folks
1:24:45it's not because i'm acting smart i
1:24:47died the scars from all this but daily
1:24:50bias is just
1:24:51one piece and you have to have other
1:24:55points of information to justify
1:24:58and qualify really the idea of it being
1:25:02a bullish or bearish
1:25:03scenario and just because it's bullish
1:25:05and bearish by your definition
1:25:07doesn't mean that the market's going to
1:25:09deliver
1:25:11tomorrow like you want to and how you
1:25:14interpret this going forward and how you
1:25:17are flexible or
1:25:18inflexible is going to basically frame
1:25:22your next few months if not your entire
1:25:25ending of your career because some of
1:25:27you will just simply say i can't do this
1:25:29and there's no shame in that because
1:25:31it's very very hard
1:25:33but everyone that has a strong
1:25:37passionate desire to do this and has
1:25:38committed in their heart that they're
1:25:40never going to quit
1:25:41they get here eventually all different
1:25:44times
1:25:45all different measures of of length of
1:25:47time involved
1:25:48in and it's not going to be the same for
1:25:51each one of you
1:25:52and how much time will it take for me to
1:25:54know my bias
1:25:56you know how long is it going to be
1:25:57until i know my unique trading model
1:25:59i don't know i'm honest when i tell you
1:26:02i don't know
1:26:03i do still have 2016 that started in
1:26:07august of 2016.
1:26:09i still have students from that group
1:26:12there isn't a lot
1:26:13but i still have few of them that simply
1:26:16still
1:26:17don't know how they're gonna find their
1:26:20own unique model
1:26:21they just rely on what i say is going to
1:26:23happen in the marketplace you know point
1:26:24in here pointing there
1:26:25and it is study still is that normal yes
1:26:31is it getting close to the end when they
1:26:33should be
1:26:34you know getting closer to their model i
1:26:37think they should
1:26:39but i'm realistic i don't know what
1:26:42they're contending with
1:26:43i know most of them are trying to look
1:26:45for perfection
1:26:47which is why i've talked a lot about
1:26:48that in this topic because
1:26:51those same individuals from my 2016
1:26:52group still choke on this
1:26:54topic because they want daily bias to be
1:26:57cut and dry
1:26:58black and white binary it's this or it's
1:27:01that
1:27:02and therefore every day should be easy
1:27:03going in it's not like that
1:27:06and you have to blend certain things and
1:27:08wait for more
1:27:09information more data more manipulation
1:27:13that comes by way of the economic
1:27:14calendar
1:27:15and then those opportunities will
1:27:17materialize
1:27:19but just simply going in and saying okay
1:27:21i'm going to be a buyer today i'm going
1:27:22to be a seller today and it's going to
1:27:23be just simply cakewalk
1:27:27man if it was that easy
1:27:30everybody would be trading it would be
1:27:34no skill required but there's a lot of
1:27:38things that you're going to be doing
1:27:40that you have to wrestle with that's
1:27:41going to tell you your bias is wrong
1:27:43your bias is wrong your bias is wrong
1:27:45that's what it's going to feel like in
1:27:46the beginning as you're learning and you
1:27:48have to tell that voice in your head
1:27:50shut up just listen to what i've already
1:27:53outlined
1:27:54i believe i'm looking for a buy and if
1:27:56you're looking for a buy and you have
1:27:58sound logic behind
1:27:59what it is that constitutes a buy signal
1:28:01it's either going to be there or it's
1:28:03not and if you do take it and it stops
1:28:04you out
1:28:05does it change your bias you have to
1:28:08have rules in place to tell you
1:28:10okay this was just me getting stopped
1:28:12out i'm still sticking with the bias
1:28:14that's maturity that's not gambling
1:28:17that's not stubbornness as a gambler
1:28:19that is sticking to your model
1:28:22and then using less risk on the next
1:28:24trade
1:28:26well i need to make all of that and a
1:28:28bigger profit michael that doesn't make
1:28:30any sense
1:28:31why do i want to drop my risk i just
1:28:33took a loss
1:28:35yeah and you're probably going to take
1:28:37another one because you're probably in
1:28:39revenge mode
1:28:40and you're probably going to get into it
1:28:41faster than you should have and you're
1:28:43probably trading with more
1:28:45than you should have and you possibly
1:28:47more leverage than you use on the first
1:28:48one
1:28:49because you heard martingale
1:28:50[Laughter]
1:28:52you know where i'm going with that take
1:28:55a loss risk more than the next one take
1:28:56a loss risk more than that one
1:28:58and you'll get it all back on the next
1:28:59trade that's man you'll lose your
1:29:01account like that
1:29:02how do i know oh i blew a couple
1:29:04accounts like that when i first started
1:29:06in the 90s i did all kinds of stuff
1:29:10but i can tell you what i give you
1:29:13in this video here in concert with the
1:29:16things i've already talked
1:29:17and taught in this youtube channel
1:29:21this is the real nuts and bolts to daily
1:29:23bias
1:29:24it really is and if you work with this
1:29:29and you take your time and you use your
1:29:32own experience building it out
1:29:34fleshing it out you will find
1:29:37that there will be a day when you sit in
1:29:39front of charts and it'll just
1:29:40it'll click you're like oh
1:29:44i don't have to worry about it these
1:29:46days but these are the days particularly
1:29:49that i have to be expecting
1:29:50the daily bias to be impactful that's
1:29:53that moment
1:29:54that's that aha moment i don't know how
1:29:58to tell you outside of what i've already
1:29:59taught you here and in other videos
1:30:01but when you see it and you understand
1:30:04it you're like oh i was
1:30:06forcing stuff i really was trying to
1:30:08make things
1:30:09you know conform to my will it doesn't
1:30:12feel like that's what's going on right
1:30:13now
1:30:14but that's exactly what you're doing
1:30:16because that's exactly what everybody
1:30:17does
1:30:18i did the same stuff when i was coming
1:30:19up you
1:30:21keep pushing and telling yourself it
1:30:23needs to be this way it has to
1:30:25if i don't get it right this time i'm
1:30:26quitting
1:30:29no you're not no you're not you're not
1:30:33quitting
1:30:33you're just gonna be mad okay and that's
1:30:36what's gonna happen
1:30:38but you're gonna have to submit to this
1:30:42the longer it takes for you to submit to
1:30:44it the longer it's gonna be for you to
1:30:46learn
1:30:47if you're stubborn and you're trying to
1:30:49be willful and say i'm going to do it
1:30:50this way because
1:30:52i'm committed to bullish bias i think
1:30:53it's going to be bullish every day this
1:30:54week
1:30:55and this is what's going to be i'm going
1:30:57to be buying
1:31:00okay but you have to be
1:31:04mature and flexible
1:31:07because when it doesn't pan out it
1:31:09doesn't mean
1:31:10that this logic is flawed it just means
1:31:14that you went into
1:31:19a day where you think you didn't need an
1:31:21umbrella
1:31:22and it rained what are you gonna do
1:31:25about it
1:31:27well i can tell you one thing you're
1:31:28gonna get wet you're going to die
1:31:30no it's going to be
1:31:34inconvenient sure it would be but it's
1:31:37not the end of your life
1:31:38it's not the end of your career if you
1:31:41got wet
1:31:44some of you are going to take a bath
1:31:46you're going to do things and
1:31:48test it yeah i mean right last 20 times
1:31:51i feel like i got it figured out
1:31:53i'm going to go in there with 5 risk
1:31:54because man if i could make 5
1:31:56risk on this 100 account i mean i could
1:31:58make
1:32:00what two thousand dollars in a couple
1:32:01months but you think i didn't know you
1:32:03did that kind of stuff
1:32:05come on now everybody thinks that way
1:32:08you see once you get your calculator out
1:32:10you start thinking okay i get the daily
1:32:11bonus right say i get the daily advice
1:32:13right just three times a week
1:32:14i can be wrong two times yeah right as
1:32:17soon as you're wrong that week
1:32:18the first time and you're new the rest
1:32:21of your week is shot
1:32:23you're gonna do everything wrong but
1:32:25it's going to feel like you're doing
1:32:26everything right
1:32:27to try to get that money back that's why
1:32:29you don't
1:32:30trade with live funds until you know
1:32:31what you're doing
1:32:33trading with a demo account six months
1:32:36consistently
1:32:37no care in the world what the outcome of
1:32:39the trade is going to be
1:32:40not because it's not real money not
1:32:42because you don't care
1:32:44you're indifferent to it that's when
1:32:46bias is going to be easy for you
1:32:48when you know that it should be a buy
1:32:50for you but you really don't care you're
1:32:52indifferent to it you're indifferent to
1:32:53the outcome
1:32:55then you're ready for what the next step
1:32:59and i'm not sure what that means for you
1:33:01personally that's a choice that you all
1:33:03make
1:33:03but you've got to have rules and you
1:33:07have to know what you're
1:33:08looking for and you have to know when to
1:33:10take information
1:33:11in and also how to filter it a losing
1:33:14trade doesn't mean
1:33:16bias is wrong and some of you aren't
1:33:19prepared to hear that
1:33:22and that's why you have to watch videos
1:33:23like this one a few times after you've
1:33:24gone through some more charts
1:33:26come back to this one and then you'll
1:33:28hear me say something that you didn't
1:33:30fully understand until you had some
1:33:32experience looking at things like this
1:33:34and oh yeah now i know i can see more
1:33:36what he was saying
1:33:37and it feels like i gave you a different
1:33:39video like i updated the video
1:33:41and i haven't the the bandwidth's the
1:33:44same
1:33:45from the first time you watched it but
1:33:47you're just not
1:33:48able to see it because you have these
1:33:51ideas
1:33:51like right now i've been talking way too
1:33:53long
1:33:54in your eyes but in my eyes i haven't
1:33:56talked enough yet
1:33:58because i know the questions that are
1:34:00popping up i know the arm wrestling that
1:34:01you're having internally
1:34:03i knew the things that you're struggling
1:34:04with i know the things that you're
1:34:05saying are paramount
1:34:06that aren't paramount and i'm bringing
1:34:08to light the things that are more
1:34:10paramount
1:34:10that you aren't even aware that you
1:34:11should be thinking or concerned about
1:34:15i'm teaching you what pitfalls you're
1:34:16going to have if you do things or if you
1:34:18don't do certain things
1:34:20that's why i talk a lot i know
1:34:24this stuff like the back of my hand and
1:34:25i know what human nature is going to do
1:34:28because i've taught
1:34:29lots of people and it's the same
1:34:30questions it's the same struggling
1:34:32points it's the same things
1:34:34and what's difficult for me as a mentor
1:34:36is i can't
1:34:37always get the individuals that are
1:34:39hanging out there
1:34:41on the fringe that have just no
1:34:46willingness to just stop doing what
1:34:48they're doing
1:34:49and just be flexible they don't want to
1:34:52be flexible
1:34:53they hold two bias has to be black and
1:34:55white it's binary it's yes or no
1:34:57it's on or off and it's not that way
1:35:02it's just a probability it's simple as
1:35:05that
1:35:06and how can you reduce it to where
1:35:09you're not struggling
1:35:12well
1:35:14you can look at
1:35:18at least a year's worth of data
1:35:21on a stock
1:35:24look on a commodity look at
1:35:28a couple different forex pairs and look
1:35:31at an index
1:35:32like a s p 500 and really tackle
1:35:37each individual day
1:35:40for each one of them for a full year
1:35:44count how many times that the market
1:35:46goes up
1:35:47and down and what days of the week it
1:35:49does because honestly folks that's what
1:35:51i did to learn all this
1:35:54you think that someone sat down and
1:35:55pointed this point that that didn't
1:35:57happen like that
1:35:58that's not how this happened for me i
1:36:01went through
1:36:02hundreds and hundreds of
1:36:05charts every single week
1:36:10and that was my life and i gave up
1:36:13everything for it so if i'm telling you
1:36:17as someone that can do this very well
1:36:20i'm not a hundred percent but i can tell
1:36:22you there is
1:36:24no easy way there is no shortcut
1:36:28there is no magic bullet
1:36:31you got to go in here and submit to it
1:36:34and see it for what it is
1:36:36and once you identify oh it's not
1:36:37perfect
1:36:39but man is this thing accurate and then
1:36:41you got it
1:36:43that's all you need you only need one
1:36:45day of the week where you think your
1:36:46bias is right
1:36:48how do you do that i've already taught
1:36:49you the economic calendar
1:36:52you wait for market structure to get in
1:36:53alignment with that manipulation
1:36:56and then you have the setup that's your
1:36:59trade that's your setup
1:37:02anything else around that would be
1:37:03scalps for the week
1:37:05but your bread and butter set up for
1:37:07that week is going to always going to be
1:37:09coupled with
1:37:10market structure and the economic
1:37:12calendar
1:37:13for that particular market that has the
1:37:15news event around it
1:37:17that's daily bias it's that day's
1:37:21bias you see how i did that it's not
1:37:24every single day
1:37:25it's going to be an up day no it could
1:37:30but i'm only focusing in on the days
1:37:33that are
1:37:34cherry and that's why it looks like i'm
1:37:37cherry picking my trades he only shows
1:37:40his winning trades
1:37:43look i don't trade all the time
1:37:47i only look for certain setups and
1:37:49certain things i'm looking for
1:37:51and that's it
1:37:55you'll get it you'll get here
1:37:58but you have to take a lot of time in
1:38:00the beginning to do it
1:38:02and don't put a time limit on it don't
1:38:04put a deadline on your success
1:38:06don't say i have to have it by this time
1:38:08because as soon as you start thinking
1:38:09that way it's not
1:38:10going to work it's going to be at least
1:38:13double from what you said it's going to
1:38:15be if you say i have to have it by this
1:38:17they don't
1:38:18and to prove that you don't it's gonna
1:38:20show you it takes twice as long
1:38:22and but are you gonna have the fortitude
1:38:26to stay with this most people don't
1:38:29they realize this is way much more than
1:38:32they thought it was going to be in terms
1:38:33of
1:38:34study work discipline
1:38:38look around the world right now people
1:38:40are not patient
1:38:42they're not mature
1:38:46they're not principle oriented they're
1:38:49not
1:38:50dedicated and discipline is completely
1:38:54out the window
1:38:57and this generation that's coming up
1:38:58right now
1:39:00they have the most
1:39:03difficult task of finding themselves
1:39:07in the world that we have now and in
1:39:09this industry
1:39:10you have so many disadvantages and
1:39:13that's why i talk the way i talk
1:39:15because some of you need a father
1:39:18and guess what daddy's home
1:39:22and you may not like the things i say
1:39:24but these things are rooted in real
1:39:26experience
1:39:28and when you listen and you submit to
1:39:31the ideas
1:39:33you'll get the progress that you're
1:39:34looking for but if you try to reinvent
1:39:37the wheel
1:39:38and want to send me emails yeah i did
1:39:40this and i did this i did this
1:39:42and then all of a sudden two three
1:39:44months later you start sending me an
1:39:45email saying
1:39:46i wish i would have listened why you
1:39:48just added three more
1:39:49months to your development that you
1:39:51didn't need
1:39:52because of stubbornness
1:39:55i get it not everybody's going to
1:39:57believe me not everybody's going to have
1:39:59the willingness to sit down and put
1:40:00these things to task i understand that
1:40:04i've been hidden and playing in plain
1:40:06sight on this youtube platform for years
1:40:10and some of you just found me and you're
1:40:12like man i can't believe this stuff's
1:40:13out here for free
1:40:14right because most people that find me
1:40:17don't want to share this information
1:40:20but i'm sitting here and you'd be
1:40:24surprised who's in my fold
1:40:26all kinds of people okay so
1:40:29if it wasn't working if it wasn't real
1:40:32believe me nobody would be here
1:40:34trying to learn it or they wouldn't be
1:40:36out there trying to
1:40:37rip it off and replicate it and imitate
1:40:40it
1:40:40and they can't
1:40:45get yourself a journal you can do it
1:40:48electronically or you can do it
1:40:50with hand but you want to be able to
1:40:53start
1:40:54capturing an everyday study
1:40:57of bias and you want to have a record of
1:41:01what you think the bias is going to be
1:41:02for the coming week and when you do this
1:41:06what you're saying is the largest
1:41:09magnitude of movement
1:41:12in price is going to be predominantly
1:41:14more to the upside
1:41:16or more to the downside that's how you
1:41:18want to classify initially
1:41:20when you're learning how to do bias you
1:41:22want to set the tone
1:41:23with the weekly range that the majority
1:41:26of the pips will be seen
1:41:28on an up move or down move okay
1:41:31you're not trying to forecast the
1:41:32closing price and then what you're going
1:41:34to do
1:41:35is you're going to record every single
1:41:37day
1:41:38on a 15-minute chart a chart with your
1:41:42own
1:41:42annotations what time of the day it made
1:41:44the low what time of the day it made a
1:41:46high of the day and how it worked
1:41:49from the opening and
1:41:53of this architecture right here relative
1:41:55to it being bullish or bearish
1:41:58and you do that and you don't ever stop
1:42:01doing it until you know what your bias
1:42:03is going to be and you know how to
1:42:04operate in it
1:42:06so there you go how long do i how do i
1:42:09know when i can
1:42:10determine bias when you no longer have
1:42:12to do that because you know what you're
1:42:14looking for it teaches you that
1:42:17that's the drills that's the things that
1:42:18you have to beat into your subconscious
1:42:21and you'll see things that you don't
1:42:23understand me talking about right now
1:42:25but when you do see it and you go back
1:42:26to these old videos you're like he's
1:42:28been saying this stuff this
1:42:29this whole time and i just had this
1:42:31mental block i couldn't see it and then
1:42:33all of a sudden it's like the the
1:42:35the cataracts come off your eyes and you
1:42:37can see it
1:42:39it sounds silly like that but it's
1:42:41exactly how it is
1:42:42for everyone i've been saying the same
1:42:45things all this time
1:42:46but for some reason people have these
1:42:49barriers that they build up
1:42:51and once they get knocked down because
1:42:52of discovery in your own studies
1:42:55you will finally get it but i cannot
1:42:59tell you and no one can tell you
1:43:00when it is that you're going to
1:43:01relinquish this hold on your development
1:43:04because you're doing it
1:43:05you don't realize you're doing it but
1:43:07you are everybody holds themselves back
1:43:10everybody and when you finally let go
1:43:13and
1:43:13just let it happen have fun doing this
1:43:17if you're not having fun while you're
1:43:18developing it's going to be longer too
1:43:22fall in love with the number crunching
1:43:24and the back testing
1:43:26the people that do well this are the
1:43:28ones that have been passionate with that
1:43:29side of it
1:43:31you might think oh i'm falling in love
1:43:33with hindsight no
1:43:34you're falling in love with the process
1:43:36and then you'll find it going forward
1:43:38it's just the same stuff
1:43:40you've seen it enough times oh yes i've
1:43:42been here before
1:43:43and then it works not all the time but
1:43:46most of the time
1:43:48so with that i wish you very pleasant
1:43:50holiday season
1:43:52i'll do my best to try to do a video
1:43:55before the end of the year
1:43:56but i'm not making any promises okay so
1:43:59please be safe
1:44:00and for my family to yours merry
1:44:02christmas

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