YouTube transcript (GqYc3Ql7nvs) — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Right now, some of the smartest
2. 0:01investors on Wall Street are quietly
3. 0:03piling into a part of the AI boom that
4. 0:06almost nobody is paying attention to.
5. 0:09We're talking about a market that one
6. 0:11chip maker says could hit $200 billion
7. 0:14by the end of this decade. And the
8. 0:16biggest tech companies on Earth are each
9. 0:18spending over a hundred billion dollar a
10. 0:21year to build it out. This is not the AI
11. 0:24story you've been hearing about. This is
12. 0:26the one hiding right behind it. There
13. 0:29are five companies at the center of it
14. 0:31all. So today we're going to break down
15. 0:33what's actually happening, run the real
16. 0:35numbers on three of them, and find out
17. 0:37what price we'd be willing to pay for
18. 0:39these companies. So let's dig in. So
19. 0:41here's the shift that almost nobody's
20. 0:43talking about. For the first few years
21. 0:45of the AI boom, the story was quite
22. 0:47simple. More AI means more of these
23. 0:50famous GPU chips, the ones that Nvidia
24. 0:53is known for. And Nvidia's data center
25. 0:55business just hit an astonishing $75
26. 0:59billion in a single quarter to prove
27. 1:02that. But AI is changing. The newest
28. 1:05kind of AI called agentic AI doesn't
29. 1:08just answer your question and stop. It
30. 1:11thinks, it runs programs. It checks
31. 1:13databases. It calls other tools. It
32. 1:16looks at the results and then decides
33. 1:18what to do next step after step after
34. 1:21step. And here's the key. Those in
35. 1:24between steps don't run well on GPUs.
36. 1:27They run on the other main chip in every
37. 1:30computer, the CPU. And this isn't just a
38. 1:33theory. In August 2026, researchers
39. 1:36studying real AI systems inside
40. 1:38Microsoft data centers found that as
41. 1:41these AI agents run their tools and make
42. 1:43decisions, the CPU sits on the critical
43. 1:47path. Another study found the CPU side
44. 1:50could eat up as much as 90% of the time
45. 1:52it takes an AI agent to finish a job.
46. 1:55Even Nvidia is basically confirming it.
47. 1:58It just built a brand new CPU it calls
48. 2:01purpose-built for agentic AI and its own
49. 2:04CEO says AI agents will become the
50. 2:07single largest users of computing on
51. 2:10Earth. When the king of GPUs starts
52. 2:12making a big deal about CPUs, you got to
53. 2:15pay attention. So, let me make the
54. 2:17difference really simple. A GPU is like
55. 2:20having 10,000 workers who can all do the
56. 2:22exact same math problem at the same
57. 2:24instant. Amazing for heavy number
58. 2:27crunching that trains AI. A CPU is more
59. 2:30like the manager on the floor saying,
60. 2:32"You do this, send that result over
61. 2:34there. Go check that database. Depending
62. 2:36on what you find, here's what we're
63. 2:38going to do next." So old style AI
64. 2:41mostly needed the 10,000 workers, but
65. 2:43these new AI agents need a whole lot
66. 2:46more of the manager, the CPU, to direct
67. 2:48all the traffic. That's the entire
68. 2:50reason CPUs are suddenly such a big
69. 2:53deal. So naturally, the race is on and
70. 2:56investors are calling it a historic once
71. 2:58in a decade opportunity. One chip maker,
72. 3:01AMD, thinks this server CPU market could
73. 3:04balloon to $220 billion by 2030. And the
74. 3:09giant tech companies are pouring in
75. 3:12almost unimaginable money to build it
76. 3:14all out. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and
77. 3:17Meta are each planning to spend well
78. 3:19over a hundred billion dollars in a
79. 3:21single year. That is the fuel behind the
80. 3:24whole thing. Here are the five big
81. 3:26players everyone is fighting over.
82. 3:28First, Nvidia, the king, now building
83. 3:31its own CPU called Vera to control its
84. 3:33entire system from top to bottom. Second
85. 3:36is AMD, which already has a strong CPU
86. 3:39business and is now selling whole AI
87. 3:42racks that bundle its chips altogether.
88. 3:44Third, ARM, whose designs sit inside
89. 3:48almost every phone on Earth, now
90. 3:50building its very own chip for the first
91. 3:52time. Fourth is Qualcomm, famous for
92. 3:54phone chips, now pushing into data
93. 3:56centers with a new chip called
94. 3:58Dragonfly. And fifth, and don't you
95. 4:01forget the comeback stock of the year,
96. 4:03Intel, the old CPU giant, which still
97. 4:06ships roughly 2/3 of the world's server
98. 4:09processors and is battling to reinvent
99. 4:11itself for the last few years. So,
100. 4:14what's the bullcase for owning these
101. 4:16companies? It's simple and powerful. AI
102. 4:19keeps growing like wildfire. These new
103. 4:21agents do far more work than a simple
104. 4:23chatbot. And all that work needs more
105. 4:26CPUs to direct it all. The giant tech
106. 4:29companies keep spending hundreds of
107. 4:31billions of dollars. The server CPU
108. 4:34market explodes towards that $220
109. 4:36billion number by 2030. And because the
110. 4:40pie grows so enormous, many analysts
111. 4:43believe that several of these companies
112. 4:45could win all at once. That is a
113. 4:47genuinely exciting story. But now flip
114. 4:51every one of those assumptions around
115. 4:52and you get the bare case. Well, what if
116. 4:54these AI agents catch on slower than
117. 4:56everyone hopes? What if the software
118. 4:58gets more efficient and suddenly needs
119. 5:00fewer chips, not more chips? What if the
120. 5:03giant tech companies spending finally
121. 5:05peaks after years of shooting straight
122. 5:07up? And what if their biggest customers,
123. 5:09Amazon, Google, and Microsoft keep
124. 5:11quietly designing their own chips
125. 5:13instead of buying chips? Any single one
126. 5:15of those could turn this gold rush into
127. 5:18a painful bust for the companies caught
128. 5:21in the middle. Five big companies. A
129. 5:23massive and genuinely real opportunity.
130. 5:26So, you may be asking, should I just buy
131. 5:28them all? The whole basket? Well, this
132. 5:30is the exact moment where most investors
133. 5:32could get themsel trapped into an
134. 5:34emotional decision. And we're here to
135. 5:36break down the numbers for you so you
136. 5:38can get some data to back up what you
137. 5:40may or may not believe. So, here's the
138. 5:42trap. Almost everyone stops the very
139. 5:45first question, is this industry going
140. 5:47to grow? And then just buys based on the
141. 5:49story. But a growing industry does not
142. 5:51automatically w mean a winning stock.
143. 5:54Warren Buffett always uses the example
144. 5:56of the automotive industry. Guys, the
145. 5:59automobile completely changed the world.
146. 6:02One of the biggest shifts in history.
147. 6:04The majority, the vast majority of the
148. 6:07original car companies no longer exist.
149. 6:09And many of the ones that do still exist
150. 6:11have gone bankrupt or been poor
151. 6:13investments along the way. Guys, imagine
152. 6:15that 130 years ago, nobody owned a car.
153. 6:19Now, everybody, we sell 15 million brand
154. 6:21new cars a year in the US. We sell 50
155. 6:24million in the world. And yet, these car
156. 6:26companies continue to be bad
157. 6:29investments. Now, let me give you an
158. 6:30example with something that literally
159. 6:32just happened. AMG just reported
160. 6:34earnings that were by any measure
161. 6:36absolutely fantastic. revenue up 50%.
162. 6:40Its data bet center business up an
163. 6:42incredible 107%.
164. 6:44Its forecast came in above what Wall
165. 6:47Street expected. Objectively
166. 6:50phenomenal across the board and the
167. 6:51stock fell 9% pretty much immediately.
168. 6:55So why on earth would a great report
169. 6:58send a stock down and not just down a
170. 7:00little bit, down 9%. Well, because the
171. 7:04market doesn't ask, "Were the results
172. 7:05good?" It asks, "Were they better than
173. 7:08what the price already assumed?" And in
174. 7:10AMD's case, the price had already
175. 7:13assumed the moon. Picture someone back
176. 7:15in 1999 telling you, "The internet's
177. 7:17going to change everything." Guys, I
178. 7:20don't think they even realized how much
179. 7:21it changed everything. They were 500%
180. 7:23right. But guess what? That didn't make
181. 7:25every internet stock a goodbye. In fact,
182. 7:28the vast, vast, vast majority crashed
183. 7:30and burned and went to zero. In fact,
184. 7:33one of the most successful ones,
185. 7:34Amazon.com, fell 96%
186. 7:38from its high in 2000 to the low in
187. 7:412002. Being right about the technology
188. 7:43is simply not the same as making money
189. 7:46on an individual stock. The revolution
190. 7:49can be completely real, but if you're
191. 7:51not picking the right company, and more
192. 7:53importantly, if you're not paying the
193. 7:55right price, you can still be wrong. So,
194. 7:58let's do what almost nobody online ever
195. 8:01bothers to do. Let's actually run the
196. 8:03numbers on three of the most important
197. 8:05names in this AI revolution. Stock
198. 8:08number one, AMD, the bullcase. It's one
199. 8:11real challenger with both a strong CPU
200. 8:14and a fast growing AI chip business now
201. 8:17bundling them into a complete AI system
202. 8:19with data center sales up 107% and big
203. 8:23names like Anthropic the maker of Claude
204. 8:26signing on the bare case. Nvidia
205. 8:29software has a giant head start that
206. 8:31developers are locked into and AMD has
207. 8:34to pull off a pile of hard transitions
208. 8:37all at once. CPUs, GPUs, networking
209. 8:40software, and factory ramps while
210. 8:42relying entirely on one factory in
211. 8:45Taiwan to build it all. That's a lot of
212. 8:48ask. So, let's pull up AMD in our
213. 8:50software and take a look at our data
214. 8:53right here. So, first off, it's an $800
215. 8:56billion market cap business. That is the
216. 8:58price of the company. But here's one
217. 8:59good thing, guys. The enterprise value
218. 9:02is 795 billion, guys. 790 versus 795 is
219. 9:07$5 billion essentially of debt and they
220. 9:09made $8.4 billion in cash last year.
221. 9:13They can pay off all their debt with a
222. 9:15little bit over half a year of their
223. 9:17cash flow. So from the looks of it, good
224. 9:19balance sheet. Cash is going up, cash
225. 9:22flow is going up, and they generate a
226. 9:24lot more cash flow than their net
227. 9:26income. Not great returns on capital.
228. 9:28This means that money that's invested in
229. 9:29the business is not getting a good
230. 9:31return. That's a real downside for the
231. 9:33company. Another thing is it's selling
232. 9:35for 94 times free cash flow. So here's
233. 9:38why this is my concern. A lot of people
234. 9:40out there say, "Well, Paul, it's growing
235. 9:41like crazy." True. But what if all of a
236. 9:44sudden that slows? What happens then?
237. 9:47What if we're not in a permanent
238. 9:48plateau? What if it doesn't even slow?
239. 9:50What if it goes down? These are things
240. 9:52whenever I see parabolic rises in
241. 9:54revenue, I always get worried going,
242. 9:56"Okay, can that sustain itself? Not even
243. 9:59sustain. Will it flatten or will it come
244. 10:01back down to reality?" The example I
245. 10:03always give was back in 2020 when
246. 10:05shipping companies were making five, six
247. 10:07times more money off of their shipping.
248. 10:09And we always said that's temporary.
249. 10:12Once shipping becomes back to normal,
250. 10:14the prices will fall. And that's exactly
251. 10:16what happened. The question is, is that
252. 10:18happening here right now? We don't know.
253. 10:20Let's check out their eight pillars.
254. 10:23Not as attractive we like. Shares
255. 10:25outstanding aren't up a ton, so I'm not
256. 10:27worried about that. But we do have a bad
257. 10:29five-year PE, bad five-year price of
258. 10:31free cash flow, and a 5-year return on
259. 10:33capital that's a little bit lower than
260. 10:34we want. Everything else a check mark,
261. 10:37which is great, but again, we have to
262. 10:40pay the right price for the company.
263. 10:42Now, guys, in a few minutes, I'm going
264. 10:43to go over the price that I would be
265. 10:44willing to pay for the company based on
266. 10:46my own assumptions. But before then,
267. 10:48analysts think this is a I mean, look at
268. 10:51this. 741 per share in profit growing to
269. 10:5423.81. That's 3x growth in profit on AMD
270. 10:59over the next four years. So, if they're
271. 11:02right and they make $24 a share and you
272. 11:04apply, let's say, a 20 PE to this
273. 11:06company, that makes the stock a $470
274. 11:09stock. Well, where is it right now?
275. 11:13It's already at 476. So, even if
276. 11:15analysts are right on this one, and you
277. 11:18assign 20 times earnings, it's
278. 11:21essentially going to be worth that in
279. 11:22four years. Is that worth it to you?
280. 11:26Let's go look at revenue and that's
281. 11:27assuming their analyst assumptions which
282. 11:29analysts are very optimistic about AMD
283. 11:31actually all happen revenue growing from
284. 11:3350 billion to 137 billion in the next
285. 11:37four years over doubling in fact almost
286. 11:40tripling over the next four years. So it
287. 11:43brings us to our stock analyzer tool
288. 11:46guys this is the tool we use to make
289. 11:48assumptions about the future and then
290. 11:50deter it'll tell us based on our
291. 11:52assumptions what the right price to pay
292. 11:54for the stock is. So first off guys I'm
293. 11:58making a 10-year analysis. What is my
294. 12:00revenue growth assumptions for the next
295. 12:0210 years? Guys I did 10 18 and 26. Now
296. 12:05you might sit there and say that's too
297. 12:07conservative. Well guys, in the last 5
298. 12:10and 10 years, they've done 25 to 26%.
299. 12:13And that included a massive AI boom. Is
300. 12:16that going to continue on? I don't know.
301. 12:17We have a lot of companies out there
302. 12:18that people think are going to go 25 or
303. 12:2030% a year in revenue growth. That's
304. 12:22asking a lot. Next, profit margin and
305. 12:25free cash flow.
306. 12:27Free cash flow has been historically
307. 12:28higher than profit margin. So, I'm going
308. 12:30to focus on that because free cash flow
309. 12:32is a true lifeblood of the business. I
310. 12:35did 13, 17, and 22% free cash flow.
311. 12:39Next, what is that PE or price of free
312. 12:42cash flow 10 years from now? Well, guys,
313. 12:44I always tell people the average in the
314. 12:46market is 15 to 16. If the company's
315. 12:49better than normal, the average company,
316. 12:51go higher. If it's worse, go lower. The
317. 12:54return on capital, I like the fact their
318. 12:5610-year return on capital is high, 14% a
319. 12:59year. So, I'm going with 20, 24, and 28.
320. 13:02Not going to lie to you guys. I feel
321. 13:04apprehensive about 24 and 28 here. I'm
322. 13:07actually going to change this to 18, 22,
323. 13:10and 26. Now, a lot of people might
324. 13:12disagree with this, but that's the whole
325. 13:14point. You have your own stock analyzer,
326. 13:16and you sit there and make your own
327. 13:18assumptions. And then finally, I put my
328. 13:20no margin of safety 9% intrinsic value
329. 13:24return. This is not the price I want to
330. 13:25pay. It's what I think the company is
331. 13:27worth. Remember, in order to buy an
332. 13:30individual stock, you should have a
333. 13:31margin of safety. So, I recommend
334. 13:33putting a higher number than 9 or 10% or
335. 13:36else you might as well just buy a
336. 13:37lowcost ETF. I hit the analyze button,
337. 13:41guys. I have a low price of 70 to 95,
338. 13:45high price of 650 to 715, and a middle
339. 13:48price of 230 to 260. So guys, even my
340. 13:51best assumptions, which are really
341. 13:53excessive in my opinion, I'm only seeing
342. 13:56a 14% return based on today's price. On
343. 13:59my middle assumptions, I'm seeing a 2.2%
344. 14:02return if I paid today's price. So for
345. 14:04me, I don't like betting when things
346. 14:07have to be really, really good in order
347. 14:08for me to make an outsized return. Now
348. 14:11guys, real quick before we go further, a
349. 14:13simple reminder. Never take our title
350. 14:15and thumbnail literally. We are not here
351. 14:18to give you a stock tip. We're here to
352. 14:20teach you a process so that one day you
353. 14:22can apply that process to your own
354. 14:24investing which will help you sleep
355. 14:25better at night and probably make more
356. 14:28money because you're making less
357. 14:30emotional decisions. You're making
358. 14:32better assumptions about the future and
359. 14:34understanding that the price you're
360. 14:36paying is different than the value
361. 14:37you're getting. Stock number two,
362. 14:39Nvidia, the bullcase. It owns the entire
363. 14:43AI system top to bottom as we speak. the
364. 14:47GPUs now its own CPU the networking the
365. 14:51software nearly every developer is glued
366. 14:53to that full stack control is an
367. 14:57incredibly deep moat the question is how
368. 14:59long can that moat last the bare case is
369. 15:03its very biggest customers are attacking
370. 15:05the moat Amazon Google Microsoft Meta
371. 15:08they are all designing their own chips
372. 15:10to depend far less on Nvidia and rivals
373. 15:13like AMD are now attacking with entire
374. 15:16systems, not just single chips. Remember
375. 15:18guys, more competition equals more
376. 15:21supply equals lower pricing. So those
377. 15:25high margins that Nvidia is relying on,
378. 15:27it really needs to be the sole
379. 15:29distributor of those chips to really
380. 15:31protect those margins. So let's pull up
381. 15:33Nvidia right now to see what is going on
382. 15:37with the company. So market cap 5.34
383. 15:42trillion, enterprise value 5.32
384. 15:45trillion. So another company with more
385. 15:47cash than debt on hand as we speak. High
386. 15:52returns on capital. Look at that. 5year
387. 15:54at 45% one year at 39%. A very high
388. 15:59metric for quality.
389. 16:01profit margin bottom line of 63% last
390. 16:04year, 54 and a half percent in the last
391. 16:06five years, 52% in the last 10 years.
392. 16:09Guys, this is a company after overhead,
393. 16:12after taxes, after everything is putting
394. 16:15over 50% over 60% last year of the money
395. 16:19into their own pocket. Guys, this price
396. 16:22of free cash flow has fallen
397. 16:23considerably, 45. Now 45 is a lot lower
398. 16:26than it was before, but the question
399. 16:28still remains. Is this going to continue
400. 16:32dropping as their revenue goes up? Are
401. 16:34they on a permanent plateau of revenue?
402. 16:37That's what we're asking here. That's
403. 16:38what the bare case is wondering. Let's
404. 16:40go check out our eight pillars.
405. 16:44Surprisingly,
406. 16:45only two X's valuation metrics. Now
407. 16:49remember though their valuations are
408. 16:51really high because it's the 5-year PE
409. 16:52and the 5-year price to free cash flow.
410. 16:55But look at their 5year free cash flow
411. 16:5749 billion. Last year was 120. So it's
412. 17:00really grown a lot. Same with net income
413. 17:0358 billion a year for the last five 160
414. 17:06last year. So is this a little
415. 17:08misleading? Could be. Like I said if
416. 17:11this is a permanent plateau of revenue
417. 17:13that could be very misleading. So guys
418. 17:16let's check out the analyst estimates.
419. 17:17Well, analysts have quite the rosy
420. 17:20picture for the future. $4.69
421. 17:23in profit growing to $20 in 2031. So,
422. 17:28let's say you assign a 20 or 25 PE to
423. 17:31this. That's $400 to $500 per share. How
424. 17:35many years from now? Five years from
425. 17:36now. The stock is currently at 218.
426. 17:40That's doubling over five years. That's
427. 17:42a really high return. But again, that
428. 17:45assumes that all the analyst
429. 17:46expectations do happen. This is not a
430. 17:48company that's slow and steady growth.
431. 17:50That's more predictable. This one is not
432. 17:52as predictable as other companies out
433. 17:54there. And in terms of revenue, guys,
434. 17:57look at this. 213 billion growing to $1
435. 18:00trillion. I have to think the rosiest of
436. 18:04rosy pictures are being portrayed here.
437. 18:06I'm not saying it's for sure not going
438. 18:08to happen, but boy, to 5x over the next
439. 18:11five years is a big leap. I hope you
440. 18:14guys who are new are understanding that
441. 18:16we're looking at a little bit different
442. 18:18than everybody else. It might not be as
443. 18:20sexy. It's more sexy to follow the
444. 18:22story, but trust me when I say this,
445. 18:24when you find companies that have a bad
446. 18:26story attached, but the numbers are
447. 18:28good, you're going to be really, really
448. 18:30glad that you listened. And that's why I
449. 18:32teach on YouTube because I saw people
450. 18:34attaching themselves too much to the
451. 18:36story. I would use extremes. I would say
452. 18:38to people when people would say, "That's
453. 18:40a terrible company. It's going to zero.
454. 18:41I would never buy them. How about for a
455. 18:43dollar? Not a dollar per share or $1."
456. 18:45Well, of course I would. Okay. How about
457. 18:47a hundred trillion? Well, of course not.
458. 18:49Somewhere in the middle, it becomes a
459. 18:51really good investment. That's all we're
460. 18:53trying to do here. That's all you're
461. 18:55trying to do here. So, we have all the
462. 18:58information. Now, we go to our stock
463. 18:59analyzer tool. So guys, I'm going to
464. 19:01give good assumptions here. I'm going to
465. 19:03give rosy assumptions, ones that are
466. 19:04very hard to do, but I'm not going to
467. 19:07give it the rosy assumptions that
468. 19:08analysts are giving. My 10-year analysis
469. 19:12has 12, 20, and 30% revenue growth for
470. 19:15the next 10 years. I have 35, 45, and
471. 19:1855% profit margin of free cash flow for
472. 19:21the next uh 10 years. I have a PE 10
473. 19:24years from now of 20, 24, and 28 and a
474. 19:279% no margin of safety return. I hit the
475. 19:31analyze button.
476. 19:33I have a low price of 133, high price
477. 19:36of,69,
478. 19:37middle price of 360. So guys, I mean, I
479. 19:41think I was giving aggressive
480. 19:42assumptions, but they're far lower than
481. 19:44analysts. So if you believe the analysts
482. 19:46now, no wonder they're so optimistic on
483. 19:48Nvidia. Now, here's a bonus twist that
484. 19:52most people miss entirely. No matter
485. 19:54which one of these companies wins the
486. 19:56chip war, nearly all of them have their
487. 19:58chips physically built by one single
488. 20:02company over in Taiwan. TSMC, Taiwan
489. 20:06semiconductor. It's the classic picks
490. 20:08and shovels idea. In a gold rush, the
491. 20:12person the person quietly selling the
492. 20:14shovels can win no matter who strikes
493. 20:16gold. That doesn't automatically make
494. 20:18Taiwan Semiconductor the best buy
495. 20:20either. But it's one more reminder to
496. 20:23never ever stop at the first most
497. 20:25obvious stock tip, which is why Taiwan
498. 20:27Semiconductor is the third stock that
499. 20:29we're going to analyze right now. So,
500. 20:32let's pull it up here in our software.
501. 20:34This is a $2.18 trillion market cap
502. 20:37business versus a 2.16 trillion
503. 20:40enterprise value. Another business with
504. 20:43more cash than debt. Now, one thing I'm
505. 20:46not a huge fan of, their free cash flow
506. 20:48is always lower than their net income
507. 20:50and has been for a long time.
508. 20:5368 billion in net income, 35 billion in
509. 20:55free cash flow, almost 40 billion in net
510. 20:58income for the last 5 years, 22 billion
511. 21:00in free cash flow. It's always missing.
512. 21:03Is it because they're constantly going
513. 21:06to have to keep building more and more
514. 21:07factories? I don't know. But this is
515. 21:08something that you need to find out
516. 21:10before you buy a company like this. And
517. 21:12you can use our AI in here at some point
518. 21:14to do that. Now, they do pay a dividend.
519. 21:17Here's what's crazy. That dividend is
520. 21:19only.76%,
521. 21:21but it eats up 16.5 billion of their
522. 21:23free cash flow. That's almost half of
523. 21:25their free cash flow for a company
524. 21:27that's still investing a lot in their
525. 21:28business. And look at these margins. 41
526. 21:31a.5% a year for the last 10, 43.8% and
527. 21:348% for the last five, 50% for the last
528. 21:38one year with a 64% gross margin. So,
529. 21:42they're able to pay taxes, overhead, and
530. 21:45everything on 15% of their money of
531. 21:47their revenue. That's incredible. High
532. 21:49returns on capital as well. That's
533. 21:51great, guys. Really, really good stuff
534. 21:53here. But currently, the price of free
535. 21:56cash flow is 62 and their price PE ratio
536. 21:59is 32. So, let's go pull up our eight
537. 22:03pillars.
538. 22:04All right, I'm not worried about the
539. 22:05shares outstanding. This is negligible.
540. 22:07Apart from that, everything else is a
541. 22:09check except for these two five-year PE
542. 22:12and fiveyear price to free cash flow.
543. 22:15Let's go pull up the analyst estimates
544. 22:17here. Okay, not as sexy as the other
545. 22:19ones. $3 per share going to 522 over the
546. 22:23next four years and revenue growth of
547. 22:26163 billion to 310. if if they were to
548. 22:29almost double their revenue, you would
549. 22:31think their profit would well more than
550. 22:33double, and they're not showing that
551. 22:34here. That's what's interesting to me.
552. 22:36So, that's where I'm kind of a little
553. 22:37confused there on Taiwan Semiconductor.
554. 22:40So, I actually did 5, 10, and 15%
555. 22:44revenue growth for the next 10 years,
556. 22:45assuming a little bit of competition
557. 22:47coming from these big guys. Free cash
558. 22:50flow. I did 20, 23, and 26. Even though
559. 22:52their profit margin was 30, I have 35,
560. 22:5438, and 41, which could be low if you
561. 22:57look at their history. All right. Next.
562. 23:00What PE 10 years from now? Well, it's a
563. 23:02quality business, so I put in 17, 20,
564. 23:04and 23. And then my 9% no margin of
565. 23:09safety intrinsic value return. Look, we
566. 23:11just ran three massive AI stocks through
567. 23:14our stock analyzer, and you saw with
568. 23:16your own eyes that the story and the
569. 23:18price are not always the same thing.
570. 23:20That's the whole point of what we do
571. 23:22inside of our community at Everything
572. 23:23Money. That is the whole point of the
573. 23:25channel. Every single day, every single
574. 23:27day, we're in there, community members
575. 23:29in there, they're running stocks for the
576. 23:31exact same tool you just watched me use.
577. 23:34And one of our members, a guy named
578. 23:36John, use a stock analyzer on Meta. He
579. 23:38did the work. He made his assumptions.
580. 23:41He bought at a price that made sense to
581. 23:42him. And he's up over 200% of that
582. 23:44position. You remember when Meta was
583. 23:46being killed by everybody, but in our
584. 23:48community, people loved it and a guy
585. 23:50like John profited from it. So, I guess
586. 23:52my question to you is, wouldn't you like
587. 23:54to have that kind of clarity, that kind
588. 23:56of attachment to the story and the
589. 23:58numbers together and not just the story?
590. 24:00What is that worth to you? What is one
591. 24:02idea like Meta worth to your portfolio?
592. 24:05Because not just John, it is the whole
593. 24:07community doing this every single day on
594. 24:10stocks exactly like the ones we just
595. 24:12broke down. You can try the whole thing,
596. 24:15the community, the stock analyzer, all
597. 24:17of it for $7 for seven days. That's $1
598. 24:20per day. Click the link below because
599. 24:22the next opportunity could land on your
600. 24:25screen tomorrow. The only question is
601. 24:27whether you're going to have the right
602. 24:28tools and the right process to know what
603. 24:31you should pay for it. So, I hit the
604. 24:34analyze button. I scroll down. So guys,
605. 24:37based on free cash flow, I have a low
606. 24:39price of 100, a high price of 350, a
607. 24:41middle price of 191. The stock is 419
608. 24:45currently. So it's not really making a
609. 24:47lot of sense. Um, on an earnings
610. 24:51perspective, you don't care about the
611. 24:52free cash flow. I have 180 to 556 with
612. 24:56316 in the middle. Very different worlds
613. 24:58depending on what you're focusing on
614. 25:00there. So here is the single line I want
615. 25:02you to burn into your memory. A great
616. 25:05story becomes a bad investment if you
617. 25:07pay the wrong price. That's exactly why
618. 25:10we never buy a stock just because
619. 25:12someone says an industry is about to
620. 25:13explode. We follow a clear set of
621. 25:16principles first every single time
622. 25:18before a single dollar leaves our
623. 25:20account. We pack those principles into a
624. 25:23free PDF for you. It shows the exact
625. 25:26process we use to see through all the
626. 25:28hype and protect our brokerage accounts.
627. 25:31Grab it down in the description below.
628. 25:33It's absolutely free and it might save
629. 25:34you from a very expensive mistake. And
630. 25:36if you want to see this exact same
631. 25:38battle, an incredible business where the
632. 25:40opportunity is huge, but Michael Bur
633. 25:42actually has an opposing view of the
634. 25:43stock, go watch our Palunteer video
635. 25:46next. It's another stock the entire
636. 25:48market is losing its mind over right
637. 25:49now, and it's the perfect follow-up to
638. 25:52this one. So, click it on your screen.
639. 25:54Thank you for your time.