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ميشال الشماعي: التهديد بضرب ايران جدّيًّا! — Transcript

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0:00Eisenkot is worse than Netanyahu, and if
0:02this file does not go to the Judicial
0:04Council, it will form a very big black
0:06mark. Hezbollah will not be safe and
0:08will find 100 excuses and one pretext to
0:10intervene.
0:12We have two years of what I would call
0:13political spite inside America, where
0:15they are fighting today. They will have
0:17to sit at the same table in the future.
0:19The classical war we used to see in the
0:21past is over.
0:33Lebanon is still nursing the wounds of
0:34war.
0:35And is awaiting the repercussions of the
0:37elections in Israel and the United
0:39States of America.
0:40And what their results might bring in
0:42terms of shifts in the path of
0:43confrontation. And the future of the
0:45South, or rather the entire region.
0:47Between internal complexities and the
0:49redrawing of regional balances of power
0:51, what awaits Lebanon?
0:53How will the election results in Israel
0:55and the United States reflect on the
0:57Lebanese-Israeli negotiations?
1:00What remains of the state's capacity for
1:02the monopoly on arms and the decision of
1:04war and peace?
1:07Will the American ballot boxes change
1:08the course of politics in the Middle
1:10East, what is the extent of the impact
1:12of their results on the margin of war
1:14against Iran, and what are the cards of
1:16power that Tehran still possesses in the
1:18region?
1:20These topics and others I discuss in
1:22this episode of the "Kalam min Beirut"
1:24podcast.
1:25With writer and political researcher Dr.
1:27Michel Chammaa. Welcome, Dr. Michel.
1:31>> Thank you, Glory to God, and thank you
1:33for the invitation, and I hope we can
1:35live up to the expectations of all the
1:38viewers.
1:40>> God willing, let's start with you from
1:42the Israeli elections.
1:45>> These elections, until today, or until
1:47this moment, have not produced a clear
1:49majority between Netanyahu's bloc and
1:51the opposition camp, and we are still
1:53days away from knowing which party will
1:55be tasked with forming the government.
2:01How will this matter reflect on Lebanon
2:02, and is it possible that any future
2:04government in Israel will change
2:06Israel's approach to the file of war and
2:08negotiation with Lebanon?
2:13>> Now, the beginning of the governmental
2:14process for the Israelis.
2:17Is not affected by the general strategic
2:19atmosphere. Meaning there is a plan they
2:21have drawn up. And they are working on
2:22the basis of it. This plan, firstly, its
2:25primary goal.
2:26Preserving Israeli national security.
2:29Whoever is head of the government.
2:31They don't have a problem.
2:33And for us, as Lebanese. Let's say it as
2:35they say, without sugarcoating. And you
2:38know, Madam, I am. That's how I always
2:40speak.
2:41For us as Lebanese, whoever the prime
2:43minister is. For us, it is the same. We
2:46will find the same results.
2:49As for the issue, if it will reflect
2:51strategically on the choices Netanyahu
2:53made, some things might differ
2:55tactically.
2:57Meaning Netanyahu, for example, decides
3:00to carry out a military operation in
3:02this way. But Eisenkot has a different
3:04point of view.
3:05For me.
3:06>> Almost, for me, Eisenkot is worse than
3:08Netanyahu.
3:09I was in one of the interviews and asked
3:11almost the same question; I said you
3:13will miss the days of Netanyahu if
3:15Eisenkot comes because he is the creator
3:17of the Dahiyeh doctrine, and we know
3:19what that means.
3:20So, today, his presence will not be any
3:22easier for the Lebanese file. I believe
3:25it will be more difficult and complex.
3:27As for them, for the Israeli interior,
3:29this is what matters to them; a very
3:31basic thing matters to them.
3:33What they gain in terms of taxes. And
3:35the second thing that matters to them is
3:37national security. And these. In both of
3:39them, there is no disagreement within
3:40their internal front. As for Lebanon, I
3:42tell you again, the path is the same.
3:45The goal is strategically the same.
3:47Israel is proceeding toward its goal.
3:49Which is disarming every illegal weapon
3:51present in. Lebanon because it is
3:52affecting its national security, and
3:54certainly at the forefront of this
3:56weaponry is the Hezbollah organization's
3:57arsenal.
3:58>> So, foreign policy will not be affected
4:00regardless of the shape of the coming
4:02government.
4:03>> Let me say, regarding Lebanon's foreign
4:06policy now, dealings with the United
4:08States, the Abraham Accords, how that
4:10path proceeds, we have no data yet.
4:15>> Well, this, the Arab parties obtaining
4:1719 seats in the elections, will they
4:19have the ability to influence,
4:20especially since Eizenkot today is
4:22counting on an alliance with these
4:24forces, and these forces see that their
4:26alliance with Eizenkot is between the
4:28bad and the worst—it’s the bad, and
4:30Netanyahu is the worst—and they want to
4:32topple Netanyahu.
4:35What will their impact be?
4:38Before I answer your question, you must
4:40allow me to cast a little shadow here.
4:44>> On this specific subject, I wrote about
4:46this point, and I said that what
4:47happened regarding the Arab parties will
4:49constitute a dark mark for the Israelis
4:51, and they will make them pay for it.
4:54>> How? How? This is the question that
4:56poses itself here.
4:58We have, of course, inside Israel—I will
5:00call them the Arab community—and of
5:02course, it's not really an Arab
5:04community, as you know.
5:06>> No, the Jew or the Israeli does not
5:08accept it. That they would be, in
5:10Lebanese terms, the "white of the eggs"
5:12[the elite/influential]. That they
5:14influence the way the government is
5:15formed.
5:16And have weight.
5:17That’s why they tried to break them up.
5:19Split them into pieces. It didn't have
5:22much of a negative impact on them.
5:24Their impact reflected negatively on the
5:26Israeli government.
5:28How they will pay for it, I don't know.
5:30We might be facing new internal
5:32displacement operations. Under labels
5:34that are not yet clear what they are.
5:36And we are witnessing their beginnings
5:38in the West Bank if you notice. It might
5:40expand into the Israeli interior.
5:42I warned about this point.
5:44And I told them to watch out.
5:46We have some relationships with friends
5:48in the Palestinian Authority.
5:50I also communicated with some deputies.
5:52And I told them this is a very dangerous
5:54matter. You must take it into
5:56consideration. Because in the end, it is
5:58one people and one land. You must not
6:00let there be.
6:02Exploitation by the Israelis of this
6:03specific point.
6:05Returning to the question you asked
6:07today.
6:08The Israeli, based on what, is setting
6:10conditions for the alliance with Arab
6:12forces? For two conditions. The first
6:15condition is recognizing that the Hamas
6:17movement is a terrorist movement.
6:19And the second condition is accepting
6:21the Israeli existence. Which Netanyahu
6:23calls in his 1993 book "A Place Under
6:25the Sun," the right to exist. And I am
6:27talking a lot about this now. And this
6:29is a very dangerous and fundamental
6:31issue.
6:32We still cannot fully grasp it
6:33intellectually.
6:35And how important it is to the Jews.
6:38That’s why Netanyahu wrote about it in
6:40'93; for them, the right to exist is
6:42sacred.
6:45And when the right to exist is held
6:46hostage by a party outside the Jewish
6:48framework, in quotation marks, this
6:50constitutes an indirect national danger
6:52for them.
6:54And I don't think the Israeli will leave
6:56it, and will leave it to interact and
6:58grow further.
6:58>> Aha, but they won't have an influence. I
7:00mean today, these are part of the '48
7:02Arabs, and they have become a force. I
7:04don't want to say a force that might
7:06have a big influence, but. It might
7:08leave an impact or a weighty force
7:09somewhere, it won't have an effect on
7:11the issue of settlements.
7:13Some may read that it won't have an
7:15effect on the two-state solution and the
7:16establishment of a Palestinian state,
7:18but on the issue of settlements, it
7:20cannot leave no traces in the West Bank
7:22.
7:22Of course, why am I telling you the
7:24Israeli will push them.
7:26I say this because the Israeli writes.
7:29Meaning, he studies everything. And he
7:31makes calculations. And he looks
7:32hundreds and hundreds of years ahead.
7:34Otherwise, he wouldn't have reached
7:36where he is today.
7:37>> So this is a very dangerous matter.
7:40I don't know what he might do because we
7:42don't know how he thinks about this
7:44subject specifically, but I saw it as a
7:46dangerous issue for the Arab presence
7:48inside the State of Israel, in quotation
7:49marks.
7:51>> Aha, so they have to pay a lot of
7:53attention to this, not just a little.
7:55And I don't believe the Israeli will
7:56accept them being the obstacle to
7:58forming the government.
8:00Or them being, if you will, the ones
8:02setting conditions for the designated
8:04Prime Minister.
8:05Whether it's Netanyahu or Eisenkot to
8:07form the government.
8:09And basically, both of them declared in
8:11one way or another, if you want, their
8:13refusal to cooperate.
8:15Let's say with this team that exists
8:17inside Israel now.
8:19So we have to see how they will deal
8:20with it after these results that
8:21occurred.
8:23>> Aha, let me return with you to the
8:24Lebanese file and the reflection of this
8:26matter on Lebanon in light of
8:28international pressures.
8:30There were continuous warnings from the
8:32President and the Prime Minister about
8:34the consequences of dragging Lebanon
8:36into a new confrontation, and we saw a
8:37remarkable position by Prime Minister
8:39Nawaf Salam two days ago regarding his
8:41condemnation of the intervention of
8:43Lebanese groups in Yemen. I mean, he
8:45didn't name Hezbollah. But certainly, he
8:47meant it. Today, in the midst of these
8:49changes?
8:51What are the tools that the government
8:52possesses or can use? To be able to
8:54impose the decision of war and peace,
8:56and the decision of the exclusivity of
8:58arms.
8:58>> We are talking about the changes inside
9:00Israel, of course. Well, today the
9:02government has a glimmer of light, so to
9:05speak.
9:06It is negative, but it turned into
9:07something positive.
9:09Which is the explosives file that was
9:11caught in the act. And in quotation
9:13marks, the "booby-trapped mule," as I
9:15called it in one of my articles.
9:17Which led to revealing a very big flaw
9:19in the heart of the Lebanese state.
9:22And a dose of support came from the five
9:24countries yesterday.
9:26This dose must be exploited positively
9:28by the government and the Lebanese
9:30authority.
9:31Because if this file does not go to the
9:33Judicial Council, it will form a very
9:35big black mark on the authority as a
9:37whole in Lebanon. Not just on the
9:39government. The whole authority, the
9:40entire system that is ruling now. And
9:42this thing, in my belief, will have very
9:44negative repercussions.
9:47How can the government benefit from the
9:48current momentum?
9:51In order to be able to extract the
9:53thorny file, which is the weapons of
9:54Hezbollah.
9:55Today the government has additional
9:57support.
9:58So it must implement the political
10:00decisions it took in the session of
10:01August 7 and the subsequent relevant
10:03sessions. From a demilitarized Beirut,
10:05to dissolving the military and security
10:07wings of the Hezbollah organization. So
10:10today, if the government does not
10:11implement its political decisions.
10:14And here, allow me to say in parentheses
10:16, these decisions are contrary to what
10:18they try to suggest to us, that they are
10:20American dictates and Israeli dictates
10:22and all this narrative.
10:23These decisions are the demands of the
10:25Lebanese people. Who among us, as
10:27Lebanese, all of us, doesn't want the
10:29state to be sovereign, free, and
10:30independent? Having authority over the
10:32entirety of Lebanese territory. Even,
10:34mind you Ms. May, even within the
10:36environment they used to call the "
10:38supportive environment," they themselves
10:40are now demanding the state.
10:44>> Well, speaking of sovereignty, where is
10:46the state's sovereignty when, yesterday
10:48, a Hezbollah delegation visited the
10:50Public Prosecutor, and there was talk
10:52about the shipment of explosives and
10:54pressure to reclaim it?
10:58>> Where, I mean, does this mean Hezbollah
11:00still holds the reins, all the reins of
11:02the state, and controls the judicial
11:04path, similar to what happened in the
11:06port explosion case when Wafiq Safa
11:08threatened Judge Bitar and threatened to
11:10remove him?
11:12I mean, are we reliving the same
11:14scenario?
11:15>> We don't want to be too negative.
11:18Nor do we want to drift into blind
11:19positivity.
11:22Today, there is no doubt that Hezbollah
11:24still possesses tools within the state,
11:26what is called the "deep state."
11:29And its head is Speaker Nabih Berri.
11:34This has become clear to us, I mean it's
11:36a given, when we sit down to analyze
11:37their performance within government
11:39institutions.
11:42Well, when does this role vanish? There
11:45is a guarantor for this role. Who is
11:46protecting this role? The illegal
11:48weapons.
11:50When the weapons go away, they will no
11:52longer have the capacity, the power, to
11:54act within government institutions.
11:57Because for him to come to the Palace of
11:59Justice, and in quotes "threaten," they
12:01came under the guise of a delegation.
12:03But what did the delegation come to do?
12:05>> Who is still acting out of strength? I
12:07mean, is anyone other than the weapons
12:09acting strong as a political force? Is
12:11he acting strong through Speaker Berri?
12:13I mean, today I hear many
12:14interpretations and voices saying that
12:16the margin of decision for the two
12:18presidents (Aoun) no longer carries much
12:20weight.
12:22And Salam and others are limited. Where
12:24is the problem? Is the problem that the
12:26political decision is currently absent
12:28from within constitutional institutions
12:29? Where does Speaker Berri stand in this
12:32equation? What I want to tell you is
12:34that, today, there is still the capacity
12:35for obstruction.
12:37And I did some study and coined a new
12:39term: "obstructionist democracy."
12:42We have one of the most beautiful
12:43systems in the world in terms of
12:45democracy, which is consensual democracy
12:47.
12:48But it has turned into an obstructionist
12:50democracy due to the power of the
12:51guarantor, which is the illegal weapons
12:53.
12:56And Speaker Nabih Berri, who embodies
12:58the head of the deep state, is still
13:00able to control the keys found within
13:02this state.
13:07To reach what you proposed and raised,
13:09we have no choice but for the government
13:10to implement its sovereign political
13:12decisions.
13:17But to be logical and objective, the
13:18government today, I don't want to say is
13:20refusing, let me say is incapable of
13:22implementing these decisions.
13:25The considerations, considerations we
13:27all know by now. The fear of a civil war
13:30breaking out, and we don't want to upset
13:32Speaker Nabih Berri.
13:34All these narratives, to me, are no
13:35longer convincing.
13:37>> Is it possible that the Lebanese state
13:38is waiting for the grand settlement,
13:40assuming it cannot do anything?
13:41>> It is very possible that this is the
13:43case. This option is certainly on the
13:45table.
13:47But I go even further than what you
13:49proposed when...When the tools available
13:51locally are disabled, we must resort to
13:53international tools.
13:55And we have Resolution 1701, and
13:57specifically here, I am referring to
13:59Chapter Seven. We have no options left.
14:04Either the Lebanese state must believe
14:06it is a state, go to the Judicial
14:08Council, and haul in...Every violator of
14:10sovereignty and every security disruptor
14:12, and take them to the judiciary,
14:14because the judiciary is an executive
14:16power too, and we reach the capacity for
14:18accountability.
14:23Well, let's think together: what if this
14:25ton of explosives had been targeted by
14:27the Israelis in any Lebanese region?
14:30We would have seen a mini-August 4th.
14:34It is half the size of the explosives
14:36that went off at the port.
14:37>> But he is saying that it was for...
14:39>> Yes, for the resistance, to resist
14:41Israel. They contain nails and I don't
14:43know what else.
14:45I am not an explosives expert, but we
14:47have read a lot that this type of
14:49explosive is not used in classic warfare
14:51against the Israelis; it is used to
14:53carry out assassinations.
14:55Were they taking them to carry out
14:57assassinations in the Galilee Panhandle
14:58?
14:59>> Uh.
14:59>> The Galilee Panhandle would have reached
15:01Tyre.
15:02>> Now, you kindly spoke about the issue of
15:04Chapter Seven. Is this still on the
15:06table?
15:07We in Lebanon—the Lebanese state—have
15:10not reached a conclusion yet regarding
15:12the international force that will
15:13replace UNIFIL, whose mission will end
15:15at the end of the current term.
15:18What will this force look like?
15:20If a security vacuum remains, the
15:22Lebanese Army will be pitted against the
15:24Israeli Army.
15:25Well, if another international force
15:27comes, how much authority will it be
15:29given? Will it exceed the authorities
15:31granted to UNIFIL by 1701?
15:34These are all questions being asked by
15:36the Lebanese public today, and the
15:37Lebanese state has no answers yet.
15:40>> Well, here we have an answer to the
15:42question in three axes.
15:44The first axis is how the Israeli views
15:47this UNIFIL force on one hand, and
15:49whoever replaces UNIFIL on the other.
15:54For the Israeli, as I told you, his
15:55concern is securing his national
15:57security, meaning no stone should be
15:59thrown from Lebanese territory toward
16:01him.
16:03>> 100%. Whatever the form of this force.
16:06But the Israeli, of course, has
16:08objections to the presence of UNIFIL.
16:10Because he knows perfectly well that the
16:12tunnels were dug—dug right under
16:14UNIFIL's feet. He does not trust UNIFIL
16:17. That is one point. A second point:
16:19does the Israeli trust what has been
16:21talked about regarding forming a
16:23European force composed of French and
16:25Italians?
16:26In the French part, absolutely no trust
16:28at all. It is clear he wants to look for
16:30another party.
16:31The second party is a proposal being put
16:33forward: that we could move toward
16:35forming a type of force.
16:38It would include British and some
16:40Americans, under the direct supervision
16:41of CENTCOM.
16:44That is it.
16:46For the Lebanese state, this is, I don't
16:48want to say impossible, but it will face
16:50very large obstacles.
16:52But the Israeli would accept it on the
16:54other side.
16:54>> But excuse me, here the Lebanese state
16:56will not accept it without UN coverage.
16:58>> That is what I want to tell you; it is
17:00not UN coverage, it will be direct
17:01American coverage.
17:03>> And not all of the Lebanese state is
17:04following this path.
17:06And we know, even now as you and I are
17:08talking.
17:09That Hezbollah still has tools within
17:11the state.
17:12Well, the second point.
17:14The Lebanese state's perspective: what
17:16is the Lebanese state looking at?
17:18It is saying: I am ready to impose my
17:21sovereignty.
17:22Meaning, for the army to be the
17:23guarantor.
17:25But can you, as an international
17:26community, [do]?
17:29They ensured that Israel would not
17:30attack the Lebanese Army; this is a huge
17:32point where we return to the framework
17:34agreement, this agreement that they keep
17:36demonizing over and over.
17:39And we have no other means at our
17:40disposal. Well, if we lose the framework
17:43agreement.
17:44We basically gave up on the ceasefire
17:46that happened before.
17:48We took the framework agreement in the
17:50hope or goal of achieving a diplomatic
17:52breakthrough. With His Excellency the
17:53President, in accordance with Article 52
17:55of the Lebanese Constitution. And we are
17:57with him and in front of him, not behind
17:58him. In this process, what did they do?
18:01They obstructed and demonized.
18:03And they are still threatening.
18:05And they keep saying they are ready to
18:06act. They want to respond if something
18:08happens. I mean, the same old narrative
18:10.
18:10>> But the obstruction is also coming from
18:12the Israeli side. There is no doubt
18:13about that. Of course, of course, this
18:15subject is beyond debate. Because the
18:16Israeli, as I told you, wants to achieve
18:18their interest. And mind you, for me, I
18:20look at him, and I see how he works. I
18:23envy him; I actually envy him.
18:26Well, you are so concerned with your own
18:28interest. Along with the power factor
18:30and the support you are receiving. And I
18:31am getting a chance for support that I
18:33never...In my life, I could have hoped
18:35for, which is the American opportunity
18:37on one hand, and on the other, the Arab
18:39support which is still a bit...If you
18:41want, limited, but that's all. But there
18:43is Arab satisfaction with the agreement
18:44. The framework that is taking place.
18:47And a large segment of the Lebanese
18:49people wants this option.
18:50And more importantly than that...Is that
18:52a segment from within the very
18:54environment that used to be a nurturing
18:56one is now demanding these options;
18:58unfortunately, unfortunately, we are
18:59losing it. This opportunity is being
19:02lost more every day we delay. The third
19:04aspect I pointed out is the
19:05international aspect.
19:07The international side’s concern is to
19:09see the Lebanese state, in quotation
19:11marks, as a real state.
19:14This is the problem we are facing here
19:16today.
19:17Because the state itself doesn't believe
19:19it is a state.
19:21I will give you a very simple example.
19:24When there was a spontaneous
19:25demonstration, as they called it, on the
19:27airport road a while ago.
19:31In protest against the Iranian
19:33ambassador.
19:34A soldier from the Lebanese Army came
19:36down with a patrol, or a battalion, or
19:38whatever the military term is. It is not
19:40my specialty. So one soldier, just one
19:43soldier.
19:45When one of the protesters, let's call
19:47him that, got close to attacking the
19:49legitimacy.
19:50Meaning the state, the Army.
19:52One soldier did what needed to be done,
19:54in line with his national duty.
19:56It ended, that was it.
19:58>> So you are saying that this state you
20:00are using as an excuse, civil peace is
20:02not in danger.
20:04>> Because I repeat, Hezbollah's fingers
20:06are still present within the
20:08institutions of the Lebanese state, and
20:10I must—I will use a word that might
20:12sound harsh.
20:14But this is the reality.
20:17The Lebanese institutions must be purged
20:19of all militia remnants.
20:22Which belong to the axis team.
20:24Iran, to be quite frank with you.
20:27Because as long as we have one switch
20:29that Iran can trigger through Hezbollah
20:30.
20:32Or even through other figures in the
20:33country.
20:35We will continue to face these obstacles
20:37.
20:38And let no one bring up the story of
20:39civil war anymore.
20:41For God's sake. No one in Lebanon wants
20:44to start a civil war. That is over.
20:46Because a war requires two or more armed
20:48sides. Unfortunately, in Lebanon, there
20:51is still one armed party.
20:53And we are all working together behind
20:54the Lebanese state. And in front of His
20:56Excellency the President. I beg you,
20:58underline the word "in front of." Not
21:00beside His Excellency the President, nor
21:02behind him. We are in front of him to
21:04reach a sovereign, free, and independent
21:06state.
21:09Where the Lebanese Army, from the first
21:11grain of soil in Naqoura to the last
21:12grain at the Masnaa crossing, is the
21:14master of the land.
21:20>> Amid this general atmosphere, do you see
21:22Hezbollah capable of opening a second
21:24support front at this stage if Iran were
21:26subjected to a war, and if they open
21:27this front, will the reasons be internal
21:29or will they truly announce this time
21:31that it will also be in support of Iran
21:33?
21:39>> I will start from the end of your
21:41question; Hezbollah's organic connection
21:43with the Islamic Republic of Iran is not
21:45a futile or tactical connection; it is a
21:47strategic one, meaning I am trying to
21:49tell you that any attack that happens on
21:51Iran, or let's call it a strike, and in
21:53my belief, the strike might happen
21:55within 48 hours.
22:00>> On Iran.
22:01>> On Iran.
22:02>> We will talk about the American
22:03elections file a bit.
22:05>> So Hezbollah will not be immune; they
22:07are saying it now, and they will find
22:09100 excuses and 100 pretexts to
22:11intervene.
22:12That is one point. A second point: Is
22:14Hezbollah, as it is today, capable of
22:16carrying out a support operation? I.
22:19Tell you no. Why no?
22:21Because simply put, the hierarchical and
22:23organizational structure of this
22:25organization is gone.
22:27It has fallen. There are no longer. I
22:29have first-line leaders. Second-line.
22:31Third-line. Operatives. We will not
22:33repeat the narrative that happened three
22:34years ago.
22:35>> But excuse me, but Hezbollah says that
22:36Iran is a strong country and does not
22:38need me.
22:38>> Well, let them say whatever they want.
22:40>> Didn't they reassure the Prime Minister
22:42before and say to him, "We will not do
22:43anything, rest assured"?
22:44>> And today they reassure.
22:45>> Yes.
22:46>> And what happened last time with the six
22:48rockets? What did those six rockets cost
22:50us? Or rather, let me tell you what
22:52effect the six rockets had on the course
22:54of events. Nothing at all. Rather, they
22:56led to the destruction of what remained
22:58of the South, and led to what they led
23:00to. So if the same path is still ongoing
23:03, I do not trust it.
23:04Let me tell you, from my side at least.
23:07From my side, I do not trust the
23:09assurances given by Hezbollah.
23:11Simply put, I am a Lebanese citizen and
23:13I have the right to.
23:16>> So any guarantees being offered by
23:17Hezbollah, I do not trust them, and the
23:19only guarantee I trust is the guarantee
23:21of the Lebanese state through its
23:23legitimate institutions, which are free
23:25from any influence by Hezbollah or Iran
23:27.
23:28>> Aha, regarding the Southern issue. There
23:30are also many scenarios proposed for the
23:32future of the South. Including economic
23:35zones with specific entry conditions.
23:37For the people who will enter.
23:38Into these areas, or Israeli security
23:41influence zones.
23:47So, do these multiple scenarios mean
23:48that whatever the shape of the region in
23:50Southern Lebanon is, it will remain
23:52subject to Israeli influence, and that
23:54whatever the reconstruction process is,
23:56whatever form the reconstruction
23:58approach takes, will this story remain
24:00linked to an Israeli security influence
24:02in Southern Lebanon?
24:08What can the Lebanese state do here?
24:11First, any influence other than that of
24:13the Lebanese state is rejected from now
24:15on.
24:16>> But this is an Israeli condition, even
24:18in the negotiations.
24:19>> They set the conditions they want. They
24:21are not the ones who dictate to the
24:23Lebanese state.
24:25When the state is truly a state, but
24:27when the state is tied to Hezbollah's
24:29regional agenda, Israel, this banana
24:31republic, shouldn't be setting
24:32conditions for us.
24:34That is the problem, the problem is
24:36right here. The problem is not that the
24:38Israeli intends to set conditions.
24:40The problem is: as the Lebanese state,
24:42am I willing to believe I am a state and
24:44have the power to be a state?
24:47Well, if I were that, then no one would
24:49be setting conditions.
24:52Why don't we find a group of deputies to
24:54propose a law requesting international
24:56assistance and implementing Chapter VII
24:59under Resolution 1701?
25:02Is it that bad?
25:03Well, the state still won't accept the
25:05fact that it is a state. Therefore, the
25:07Israeli is still able to set the
25:09conditions he wants, unacceptable
25:11security conditions. That is on one hand
25:13. On the other hand, you want to tell me
25:15about an economic zone under
25:16international supervision? For me, yes,
25:19why not? If an economic zone is created
25:22, and if this is the gateway to return
25:24the southerners to their villages, to
25:25reconstruction, and to the revival of
25:27the Lebanese state, why not? If it is on
25:30the condition that it is under the
25:31supervision of the Lebanese state, and
25:33of course under international
25:34supervision, why not? That's what I
25:36don't understand, why do some reject
25:38these proposals?
25:39If America is coming and saying I want
25:41to do this.
25:41>> Because it considers it an infringement
25:43on sovereignty, meaning today, in the
25:45Lebanese state...
25:45>> I have said this before, and I am
25:47telling you now regarding the current
25:48readings.
25:49>> Yes, I am telling you that under the
25:51supervision of the Lebanese state and
25:52its institutions, why not? And let there
25:54be American supervision too, why not?
25:56Wasn't there UNIFIL? What did UNIFIL do
25:59? They didn't do anything for us. They
26:01were recording violations and breaches,
26:02while tunnels were being dug right
26:04underneath them.
26:05>> How can we talk about the concept of
26:07sovereignty if, until now, the Lebanese
26:09Army—two days ago there was a report
26:10that in some hills and valleys,
26:12Hezbollah is still preventing even the
26:14Lebanese Army from approaching in
26:16southern Lebanon.
26:17>> Well, pay attention now. If you and I
26:19want to talk and say this.
26:21They will tell me, Dr. Michel, that you
26:23only see Hezbollah.
26:25All the blame is on Hezbollah.
26:27Well, why is the state standing still
26:29then?
26:30Who is hindering the building of the
26:32state today?
26:33And here I have spoken before. I spoke
26:35about a subject I called "sovereignty
26:37sharing."
26:39The Lebanese state decided to concede
26:41part of its sovereignty.
26:43Starting from the 1969 Cairo Agreement
26:45for the PLO.
26:46We got rid of the PLO. The Syrian
26:48occupation took its place. The Syrian
26:50occupation ended. We had the 2008 May
26:537th coup.
26:54Hezbollah came to share sovereignty with
26:56the state. And it even became the state
26:58itself. Why?
27:00Because many people gave up their
27:02national dignity.
27:04They became agents and servants of Iran
27:06under Hezbollah's authority, from all
27:08Lebanese sects, Christians and others;
27:10what happened in the end is that there
27:12is no longer a state, no one believes us
27:14anymore, and we reached this stage.
27:17We have regained, to some extent, let me
27:19say, a large part of this state. With
27:21the arrival of His Excellency the
27:23President today to the helm of power.
27:24And the appointment of Prime Minister
27:26Nawaf Salam. To form the government.
27:28We have confidence in the Prime
27:30Minister's international legal expertise
27:32.
27:33We also have confidence in His
27:35Excellency President General Joseph Aoun
27:37. Regarding how he will manage matters
27:38here. And we heard the inaugural address
27:40.
27:41But what happened after that finished?
27:44Nothing. What we are saying to His
27:46Excellency the President and the Prime
27:47Minister is that we are walking ahead of
27:49you.
27:50And what happens to you will happen to
27:52us first.
27:53>> That is the extent of our support. But
27:55it is not just us saying this.
27:58The international community, in some way
28:00, is also telling the Lebanese
28:01authorities this today.
28:04But I repeat, as long as the Lebanese
28:06state, in all its institutions, does not
28:08believe it is a state.
28:10And capable, as I pointed out earlier
28:12regarding the military, of enforcing the
28:14law. That means Hezbollah will remain.
28:16And Iran will remain. And the Iranian
28:18ambassador will keep sitting comfortably
28:20in Lebanon, with no one questioning him
28:21. The interference will continue.
28:23And tax exemptions under various names
28:25will continue.
28:26This whole system that was. In power
28:28will continue. However, we saw someone
28:31trying, but they aren't able to.
28:33The hand must be slammed on the table.
28:36The state must be told to do its duty.
28:39And things must get on the right track.
28:41Aside from that, we are warning. Not
28:43just us, but everyone.
28:46Hezbollah and its cohorts are leading to
28:48the collapse of the structure on
28:49everyone's heads.
28:51Here, I want to ask an even more
28:52dangerous question.
28:55Is it required of Hezbollah today and
28:57its agents in Lebanon to topple the
28:59Lebanese state?
29:02In service of regional projects that may
29:04include Israeli projects.
29:07This is a major problem.
29:08>> Someone answer me on this.
29:11>> There is no answer; otherwise, why are
29:13you not letting the state function?
29:16I mean, are you...but they are the ones
29:18not letting the state function, or is
29:20the room for maneuver for the presidents
29:22slow and sometimes interpreted as
29:24appeasement?
29:26>> No, here, excuse me, we are not...
29:30>> Many things happened regarding
29:31appointments and many files in the
29:33country where the state or authorities
29:35succumbed to the demands of the duo.
29:38>> What I want to tell you, going back to
29:39the conversation from a moment ago.
29:42The deep state still exists today.
29:45And for this state to be dismantled, I
29:47repeat, there is the guarantor. The
29:49guarantor must go. And the guarantor we
29:51have, which is the illegal arms, has a
29:53regional guarantor, which is the Islamic
29:56Republic of Iran.
29:57>> Because the file is so linked and
29:59complex, if Iran is struck—and I am
30:01telling you we might be facing a strike
30:03within these 48 hours—if Iran is struck
30:05, Hezbollah will definitely be struck in
30:07Lebanon because the Israelis are waiting
30:09.
30:10And don't forget we have a 28-day period
30:12for forming the Israeli government.
30:15During this period, Netanyahu is
30:17considered free to act and is ready to
30:19make decisions and choices, yes, of
30:21course, just as it is happening now in
30:23America with President Donald Trump.
30:25So today, we are in the most dangerous
30:27phase we are going through in the region
30:29.
30:30Who will save us in this phase?
30:32Who will guide us through the mines?
30:34The state. The state today is paralyzed
30:37under the labels we discussed.
30:39Therefore, we are inevitably—I am not
30:41used to preaching pessimism.
30:43But we are making an objective analysis
30:45with you.
30:46Meaning we are inevitably heading toward
30:48a military operation against Lebanon.
30:51Well, we don't know. We know how it
30:53begins, but we won't know how it ends.
30:58>> Aha, you mentioned that if Iran is
31:00struck, in your opinion, after the
31:01results of the US midterm elections in
31:03Congress, what is the extent of that
31:05impact on Trump's margin of maneuver
31:07against Iran?
31:11I know now.
31:12>> Is the option of returning to military
31:14action still on the table?
31:15>> For now, we have until at least January
31:173rd, things are still as they are,
31:19nothing will change.
31:21>> And the military preparations are fully
31:23complete.
31:26From A to Z. And all the political and
31:28diplomatic preparations.
31:31From Russia to China. To Pakistan. And
31:33to.
31:35Arab countries, led by the Kingdom of
31:37Saudi Arabia, are all saying—with Israel
31:39behind them—that the military operation
31:41is only a few days away.
31:44>> Does this military operation serve Trump
31:46, and how much power does he still
31:48legally have?
31:49>> He is still here until January 3rd.
31:51Nothing has changed in America. The new
31:53Congress will not take office before
31:55January 3rd. Meaning, exactly like the
31:57period Netanyahu is in.
31:59Let me call this the period that has no
32:01ceilings. It has no conditions now.
32:03Meaning both Trump and Netanyahu are
32:05free to carry out this action.
32:07And they will do it.
32:08>> Because all the indicators say so, and
32:10of course, I do not want this.
32:12>> And I am saying it, shouting it, and
32:14telling them: folks, to prevent the
32:16Israeli from executing what he wants, we
32:18must be a state.
32:22>> Aha, well, is it possible we will
32:24witness a new confrontation between
32:26Trump and the US Congress, and could
32:28this clash reach the point of impeaching
32:30Trump, as happened in previous years?
32:35>> I missed answering your point earlier
32:37about whether the new Congress would
32:39affect President Trump's performance
32:40over these two years.
32:42We saw as soon as he won, he tweeted, or
32:45posted on his Truth [Social], a cap
32:47written on it "Veto, Veto."
32:49>> Meaning we have two years. If I may, let
32:51me call it a political spite inside
32:53America. They caught it from us in
32:55Lebanon, instead of us catching it from
32:57them. Development and prosperity.
32:59Yes, certainly.
33:02The internal US policy will be affected
33:05. Because the American cares about two
33:07things. I wrote it and I said it. The
33:09first thing that matters to him is his
33:10pocket.
33:11>> Meaning taxes and the economy, and the
33:13second thing is that the American does
33:15not like hesitation.
33:16>> And both of them [the voters] bet on
33:18President Trump, and the American voter
33:20paid their price.
33:22>> Quite simply, now if you tell me that if
33:24this operation is done between now and
33:26January 3rd, will it increase Trump's
33:28ability to manage the next phase?
33:31Of course, because he determined the
33:33options from the start.
33:35And he said we will strike Iran. And we
33:37will not allow Iran to possess nuclear
33:39weapons. And there is now a division
33:41within the Republican camp.
33:42>> Into two teams. A team led by JD Vance,
33:45the Vice President. And with him, Donald
33:47Trump's son.
33:50And with him is this whole atmosphere
33:52that says we should appease Iran and
33:53make some kind of deal with it.
33:56We liberate the Strait of Hormuz to
33:58bring prices down further. To give
34:00relief to the American interior
34:01economically.
34:03And a second team led by extremists, or
34:05if I may, the hawks in the Republican
34:07party, like the Secretary of War.
34:11And he says we should carry out a quick
34:13, decisive, and lightning strike on Iran
34:15. That would incapacitate it from now
34:17until 100 years later. And then the
34:19strait would open on its own. And the
34:20oil revenues would flow back. And prices
34:22would drop.
34:23>> Where is the Israeli role here?
34:25Netanyahu's Israel, in the previous
34:27period, insisted on a knockout blow to
34:29Iran, and Trump hesitated due to the
34:31division you are referring to and
34:33domestic pressures.
34:35Today, Israeli pressure will still exist
34:37even if Eisenkot takes over.
34:39>> Here I return to what we started with,
34:41and we said that the Israeli,
34:43strategically...
34:44>> I’m talking about Iran.
34:45>> Yes, yes, it's the same story. Don't
34:47forget that Eisenkot is no more merciful
34:49than Netanyahu. I said it, I told you,
34:51and I repeat it: you will long for the
34:53days of Netanyahu if Eisenkot comes,
34:55that’s how it is.
34:56>> Meaning, at the end of the day, Israeli
34:58national security is linked to the
35:00threat coming from Lebanon, exactly that
35:02, and where does this threat originate?
35:05From Iran. And there is also a threat
35:07coming from Iran against them.
35:09They simply want to reach a solution I
35:11called sustainable peace.
35:13Not just Abraham Accords. That’s where
35:15they are heading. And Netanyahu wasn’t
35:17being foolish when he stood at the UN
35:19two or three years ago.
35:21And showed a map of the Middle East
35:23colored in blue. He told them "all this
35:25region to be in blue."
35:26It doesn’t mean, as interpreted, Greater
35:29Israel and an expansionist project and
35:31that he wants to occupy and so on. The
35:33Israeli is no longer thinking like that
35:35. I’m not defending him, of course. If
35:37he gets the chance to occupy, he won't
35:39say no. But the occupation he wants to
35:41practice is technological and economic
35:43control.
35:44Certainly, that is what he is looking
35:46toward. And we are in a war centered on
35:48the economy.
35:49Whoever owns the economy today owns
35:51everything. And why is America strong
35:53today? Because it owns the global
35:55economy. And why was America shaken?
35:57Because its economy was affected, quite
35:59simply.
36:00>> So, can American-Iranian relations be
36:02reshaped under the title of an agreement
36:04without toppling the regime in Iran?
36:07I mean, is it possible not to go to war
36:09, to reach an agreement, even if we
36:11couldn't topple the regime?
36:12Trump admitted it before, saying I
36:14couldn't topple the regime.
36:15>> I understand you. Let me tell you from
36:17my point of view, this is my personal
36:19opinion. I rule out this option quite
36:21simply.
36:22Why?
36:24Because the entire American mindset,
36:26Republican and Democratic, cannot accept
36:28...That this mentality existing in Iran
36:30remains holding onto the rules of the
36:32game geostrategically and geopolitically
36:35in the heart of the Middle East.
36:39The region, which is considered a region
36:41upcoming for very huge investments,
36:43especially in the field of energy.
36:45Specifically, I’m referring here to the
36:47Eastern Mediterranean, meaning those
36:49primarily concerned are Israel, Lebanon
36:51, Syria, and part of Palestine in Gaza,
36:53all the way to Egypt.
36:55Well, the American will not accept...
36:57Who is coming to invest billions of
36:59dollars in new energy here in the Middle
37:01East.
37:02That there be an Iranian influence; it's
37:04impossible.
37:05So, that is why I don’t see prospects
37:07for the continuation of the Iranian
37:09regime as it is.
37:11Yes, it might fall from within.
37:13Especially since the Iranian interior is
37:15not, as they portray it to us, a
37:17cohesive interior. And that Iran has
37:18mastered the game and the Revolutionary
37:20Guard is not everything. No, don't
37:22forget we have an occupied nation inside
37:24Iran. Which is Arabistan, Ahwaz, since
37:271923, and there is resistance. There is
37:29resistance there.
37:30>> It has started to move.
37:31>> Of course, the Iranian Persian is
37:33practicing on the Ahwazis the same
37:35method that the Israeli practices on the
37:37Palestinians.
37:38>> Well, where are the cards of power that
37:40Iran still possesses? Meaning, Hormuz is
37:42under siege.
37:43It is clear it cannot move in Hormuz as
37:46it wishes, even if it is imposing some
37:48restrictions. There is an internal
37:50economic siege. There is a flaw in the
37:52internal system.
37:53And economic crises are expanding.
37:56Where else does it have leverage with
37:57its proxies?
37:58>> That is one aspect, and on the other
38:00hand, do not forget the nuclear program
38:03that still exists within Iran, whose
38:05nature, capability, or extent we do not
38:08know.
38:08>> Uh-huh.
38:10>> I mean, today Donald Trump is
38:11threatening to strike the Fordow
38:13facility.
38:15He wants to strike it because it is
38:16well-known what it is.
38:18And it is known that this facility is
38:20built under granite rock and is very
38:21deep.
38:23Meaning, with the types of weapons the
38:24Americans have, it might not be
38:26destroyed.
38:27Hence, there was a threat that nuclear
38:29weapons might be used.
38:32That is why we saw more than 12 European
38:34countries urging their citizens to store
38:36food and water.
38:39For a week, two weeks, or three days.
38:43Each country according to its assessment
38:44of the nuclear damage to it.
38:47So, there is a serious threat of
38:49striking Iran, in my opinion.
38:51And I told you that we might see the
38:52strike within these two days.
38:55Because the American can no longer
38:57accept this regime continuing as it is.
39:00Now, you might say, if it is struck, the
39:02regime changes and we return to making
39:04...A certain agreement. A nuclear
39:06agreement. But certainly not the 2015
39:08Obama agreement, of course; yes, that is
39:11possible. Ultimately, I am not a
39:13believer that anyone can cancel anyone
39:15else out. I cannot cancel you, and you
39:17cannot cancel me. God created the
39:19universe this way. On the basis of
39:21integration and harmony.
39:22They have to work with each other. And
39:24those who are fighting today will have
39:25to sit at the same table in the future.
39:27But, of course, not him, not this regime
39:30, not the Revolutionary Guard.
39:32Iran might remain in different forms.
39:35Baluchistan, Ahwaz. Split into two or
39:38three states. Remain as it is, a
39:40federation. I do not know what might
39:41happen.
39:42But what I want to tell you is that this
39:44regime cannot continue.
39:46Especially since this regime succeeded
39:48in something very dangerous.
39:50It is that it exported this extremist,
39:53terrorist, fundamentalist ideology to
39:55most European countries.
39:57It reached America.
39:58>> But at the same time, Iran is still
40:00capable, it has cards in the region.
40:05The proxies, meaning its power to
40:07control part of the Strait of Hormuz and
40:09Bab el-Mandeb.
40:12>> Does this mean it could lead to an
40:13intermittent war?
40:16Intermittent strikes while imposing an
40:18economic siege on Iran.
40:22While imposing stricter sanctions,
40:23without things going to a full-scale war
40:25.
40:27And it still has economic repercussions
40:28on the region.
40:30Perhaps this is the fear that is making
40:32the American President partially
40:33hesitate to carry out this strike.
40:39But this fear was valid, correct, and
40:41justified before the talks with Lavrov,
40:43the Pakistani General Munir, and the
40:45Chinese President, to remove all these
40:47obstacles.
40:50The American President, in my opinion,
40:52has passed that stage. No, today we are
40:54heading in this direction, and I am
40:56telling you the strike could be.
40:58>> A knockout blow.
40:59>> It wouldn't be a lightning-fast,
41:00decisive strike. He won't carry out a
41:02hit like before—meaning striking a few
41:04facilities. No, he already struck them
41:07and saw that they didn't yield results.
41:09As you rightly pointed out, Ms. May,
41:11Iran is still capable of exerting
41:12influence, whether through the Houthis
41:14at Bab el-Mandeb or slightly through
41:16Hormuz, affecting the course of...
41:19>> Well, where could Gulf and Arab pressure
41:21lead?
41:22I mean, Arab countries have always tried
41:24to propose initiatives and ideas to
41:26avoid war because they lack the capacity
41:28to endure such strikes.
41:30>> What is it?
41:30>> How will Arab pressure be translated
41:32today?
41:33>> Arab pressure could be translated in two
41:35areas.
41:36The first is responding to any
41:37aggression that takes place on Arab soil
41:39.
41:40I mean a military response here. There
41:42is hesitation regarding this among all
41:44Arab peoples.
41:46I mean from the Emirates to the Kingdom
41:48, to Oman, to Bahrain—all of them. But
41:50they cannot continue like this. That’s
41:52one point.
41:53A second point: don't forget today that
41:55energy corridors, while essential for
41:57transit......there are alternative
41:59corridors.
42:00Even those alternative corridors.
42:02>> But even those corridors were bombed and
42:04struck.
42:05>> Yanbu and others.
42:06>> True. True.
42:08That is why Arab countries have a very
42:10fundamental role in the global path.
42:13And they must play this role.
42:16If Arab countries cannot remain within
42:18this path, they will later witness a
42:20kind of—I don't want to say isolation.
42:23Of course, no one can isolate them. A
42:25kind of deterioration in the
42:27international economic relationship with
42:29the United States. Which will force them
42:31to move toward other paths and options
42:33heading East. I mean, specifically,
42:35China here.
42:35>> China.
42:36>> We’re short on time.
42:38Let me go back with you a bit to
42:40US-Israeli relations, based on Trump’s
42:42indication that the relationship with
42:44Israel was one of the factors that
42:45influenced the election results.
42:48>> Right.
42:49>> Could that, in your opinion, lead to a
42:51reconsideration of military support for
42:53Israel?
42:55And are we facing a shift in the
42:56US-Israeli relationship?
42:57>> No, I rule that out entirely. I strongly
43:00rule it out, not just a little. Now,
43:02they might have declared they want to
43:04stop military aid......
43:05>> the four billion story.
43:06>> For me, that issue was surpassed long
43:09ago. Why?
43:10Because I know how the American mind
43:12thinks and what it considers Israel to
43:13be.
43:15Israel is an American state outside the
43:17borders of America—to that degree.
43:19>> It is impossible. It is impossible for
43:22the American to accept, under any name,
43:24abandoning the Israeli. Because the
43:26moment America abandons Israel, it means
43:28Israel has lost all its guarantees.
43:30Today, the guarantee of Israel's
43:32existence in the heart of this region,
43:33which is a region that doesn't resemble
43:35it, is the United States of America.
43:37>> A...
43:39>> If that guarantee goes, rest assured
43:41that Israel will sooner or later fall
43:43and vanish.
43:47But, to be objective, in the coming
43:49years, I don't see that as achievable.
43:53>> Let me ask you one more question.
43:55I mean, a very final question. I want to
43:58ask to what extent these US election
44:00results could affect the Lebanese
44:01negotiation track.
44:03Especially since the track is under
44:05American sponsorship.
44:06And we have noticed recently that the
44:08Hooshstein round didn't achieve any
44:10tangible results.
44:12It didn't go beyond an attempt to keep
44:14the thread of negotiations alive.
44:18>> The reason you pointed to regarding
44:19Tampa is the failure to implement the
44:21conditions requested of the Lebanese
44:23state, and I am referring here
44:24specifically to military conditions.
44:29That is why this obstruction occurred
44:31when they created the first and second
44:33pilot areas and found that the state did
44:35not commit to what it promised, and
44:36things continued as they were.
44:41Adding insult to injury is the Kahale
44:43truck incident, the tunnels discovered
44:44on the border with Syria, and the
44:46tunnels being discovered successively in
44:48every Lebanese region.
44:51Well, ultimately, the American is not
44:53serious. I regret to say it first. The
44:56American does not work for us.
44:58The American is not our employee. And
45:00Lebanon is not the center of the
45:01universe. We need to get these ideas out
45:03of our heads.
45:04>> A
45:05>> We first need to believe in ourselves as
45:07a state and stand behind our state,
45:09provided that our state believes in this
45:11itself.
45:12>> Believes that it is a state, of course.
45:14>> B. Convince me of one thing. You are
45:16saying that Lebanon is not the center of
45:18the universe.
45:20But today there is a redrawing of the
45:21map of influence in the world.
45:24Are we?
45:25We are facing a new form of warfare.
45:27That transcends classical confrontations
45:29. And what are the balances of power?
45:32That could control this new global order
45:34.
45:35>> Well, certainly the classical war we
45:37used to see in the past is over.
45:41Today, the principle of war is based on
45:43the use of artificial intelligence and
45:45what is called "zero war" in military
45:47parlance; meaning not losing any human
45:49lives.
45:51Losing weapons, losing robots, losing
45:53industry is not a problem, but the
45:55important thing is that human casualties
45:57are zero.
45:59This is their concept of modern war.
46:02Second point, regarding the balances of
46:05power you pointed to, the American is
46:06certainly trying today to return the
46:08world to a unipolar system that he wants
46:10to remain in control of.
46:13And that is why he is trying to give the
46:15Chinese what he wants. And what happened
46:17in the meeting between US President
46:18Donald Trump and the Chinese President,
46:20he gave him investments inside the
46:21United. States of America exceeding 300
46:23billion dollars. And this is something
46:25China could not have dreamed of. To the
46:27Russian, Donald Trump said: I am ready
46:29to end the Ukraine crisis for you and
46:30resolve it. In an indirect way, and we
46:32don't know what might happen now in
46:34Ukraine, because I believe the Russian
46:36has been given free rein to end this
46:38file definitively. What the end looks
46:40like, we are not yet able to determine.
46:42I mean, in other words, I gave the
46:43Russian what he wanted. I gave the
46:45Chinese what he wanted. The Indian and
46:47the Pakistani, I have them in my pocket
46:49. Meaning, he has returned to world
46:51sovereignty.
46:52And this, in my belief, is the
46:54narcissistic dream that President Donald
46:56Trump had.
46:58And notice, by the way, one of the worst
47:00things that affected his path in the
47:02election campaign was his narcissism.
47:06>> Yes, he hit his pockets.
47:08The American hit his pockets. And the
47:10hesitation I told you about. And you
47:12pointed to it. These are the three
47:13factors that made what happened, happen
47:15.
47:17Hence, I believe the world will be
47:19facing a restoration of unipolarity in
47:21one way or another.
47:24Because the American will not accept
47:26having multipolarity. And the proof of
47:28what I am telling you is Iran.
47:31When it was trying to be at the heart of
47:32this multipolarity.
47:34We saw what happened to it.
47:36>> The Gulf states are the same, Israel, of
47:38course.
47:39>> The Gulf states went for the Makkah
47:41Agreement; meaning, Saudi Arabia moved
47:43to weave this new form of alliances.
47:46>> Writer and political researcher Dr.
47:48Michel Chammaa, thank you very much for
47:49this analysis and for this interview.
47:51Thank you, viewers, for your kind
47:53attention, and goodbye.

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