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习近平的癞蛤蟆睡嫦娥计划。大炼芯片为什么救不了中国经济 — Transcript

by 真诚疑惑 · 4,553 words · 745 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00February 2023 was the time when U.S.
0:02chip sanctions against China were at
0:04their most severe. Ordinary Chinese
0:05people were asking everywhere: when
0:07will we be able to produce these chips
0:08domestically? When will we be able to
0:10produce this lithography machine
0:11ourselves? At the time, on Zhihu, there
0:13was a question about how our country's
0:15lithography machine development was
0:16coming along. A user under this
0:18question replied firmly: "Let me put
0:20your minds at ease, if it's not in mass
0:22production by the end of the year, I'll
0:24bring you my head." Upon seeing this,
0:26the Chinese people were thrilled and
0:28immediately pushed this answer to the
0:31top spot. The masses left passionate
0:33comments full of hope; tens to hundreds
0:35of thousands of supportive messages
0:37flooded the entire screen. On March 11,
0:39unexpectedly, there was an even greater
0:41expert; another anonymous user chimed
0:43in, saying their unit had
0:44confidentiality requirements, so they
0:46wrote a lot and then deleted it all.
0:47They could only excitedly repeat to
0:50themselves, "It's almost here, it's
0:52almost here. The day of the grand
0:54unveiling, the dragon will win." In May
0:572025, this group of people really kept
0:59their word. Almost all senior
1:01executives of the Big Fund for chips
1:03were rounded up and sentenced. The
1:05chairman of Tsinghua Unigroup, Zhao
1:07Weiguo, was given a suspended death
1:09sentence; he really did "bring his head
1:11.""Grand unveiling"—so that's what it
1:14meant. "Listen to the dragon win"—so
1:17that’s how the dragon wins. Actually,
1:20this "dragon" has won many times before
1:22, but previously, these "dragon wins"
1:24didn't have the follow-up "bring your
1:26head" part. Furthermore, these wins
1:28weren't very high-tech; for example,
1:29buying foreign chips, sanding off the
1:31logos, and then claiming they were the
1:32pride of domestic production. Like "
1:34Hanxin" or "Hongxin," or otherwise
1:37photoshopping papers to commit academic
1:39fraud. China's high-tech sector does
1:41these non-high-tech things, only
1:43engaging in sleight-of-hand tricks that
1:45middle schoolers could pull off, and
1:47these people are especially malicious,
1:49insisting on linking these shameful
1:51acts to the nation and the people. You
1:54build a fake chip; why call it anything
1:56else? You just have to call it "Hanxin"
1:58(Chinese Core). It's as if you have to
2:00smear the whole Han ethnicity with this
2:02embarrassing mess. And then there's
2:04that "Hongxin" browser that just copied
2:07Google's code. What is "Hongxin"
2:09supposed to mean? What are you
2:11insinuating? What are you mocking? To
2:14be honest. I suspect this group of
2:16people are all undercover agents sent
2:19by dissidents into the CCP. Even a
2:20regular person trying to smear the CCP
2:22or China couldn't achieve this level of
2:24destruction. In fact, "Dragon Wins" can
2:26be considered a specialty of the CCP.
2:28For instance, the first car of New
2:30China, the first tank, the first this,
2:31the first that—they always open their
2:33mouths with "independently developed."
2:35Shut up, what kind of "independent R&D"
2:37is that? What’s the difference
2:39between the Jiefang truck and the
2:41Soviet ZIS-150? Even if you had no eyes
2:43and were blind, a blind person could
2:45feel there's no difference. Didn't Deng
2:47Xiaoping say back then that we need to
2:49build socialism with Chinese
2:50characteristics? This "Dragon Silver"
2:52might be a characteristic, but why the
2:55"General Silver"? Because the people
2:57overseeing China's tech sector are
2:59mostly liberal arts secretaries, people
3:01who studied Chinese literature. You put
3:03people like that in charge of
3:05supervising the tech sector. They can
3:06definitely spot typos in technical
3:08papers, but do they understand what the
3:10papers mean? I bet even if you gave
3:11them a lifetime, they still wouldn't
3:13understand. If the people you supervise
3:15know you're an amateur, won't they just
3:17fool you to death? Therefore, China's
3:19tech sector is likely brewing the
3:21largest-scale technological corruption
3:23on Earth. Widespread fabrication in
3:25Chinese academic papers is already a
3:28fact. Once AI makes low-cost scrutiny
3:30of academic fraud possible, I expect a
3:32massive upheaval in China's tech world.
3:35Of course, this is my prediction: once
3:37a low-cost verification method for
3:40China's astronomical volume of research
3:42papers appears, it will inevitably
3:45trigger a scandal that shocks the world
3:47. This scandal is already taking shape.
3:50We had Fang Zhouzi before, and now on
3:52Bilibili, there’s someone
3:53specializing in investigating academic
3:55fraud named "Geng Tongxue Jiang Gushi."
3:57It exposes that people at the very
3:58pinnacle of China's technological
3:59pyramid are faking data on a massive
4:01and systemic scale, and nothing happens
4:02even after they are reported. This
4:03corruption and fraud don't seem to be
4:05grassroots issues. Academicians are the
4:06atoms at the top of China's research
4:08pyramid. There are tobacco academicians
4:12, traditional Chinese medicine
4:14academicians, and we almost got a "
4:16liquor science" academician. Not to
4:22mention anything else. Just take this
4:24tobacco academician—who can tell me
4:27what brilliant research he has done?
4:29Who can tell me what groundbreaking
4:30invention he has made? I'm so curious,
4:33someone involved in tobacco becoming an
4:35academician? He must have some
4:37brilliant research, right? Has Chinese
4:39tobacco surely become world-class
4:41because of his brilliant research? Ah,
4:43astronomical research funding, second
4:45only to the U.S. After investing for so
4:46many years, all they came up with was
4:48Tu Youyou, who found artemisinin
4:49through brute-force searching—like a
4:51blind cat finding a dead mouse. What
4:53does brute-force mean? Brute-force
4:55means listing every possibility and
4:56trying them one by one. For example,
4:58you can go to Beijing by plane,
5:00high-speed rail, or motorcycle. But if
5:02others have already written about these
5:04, what do you do? You could write a
5:06paper on whether hopping to Beijing is
5:07possible and still get it published;
5:09just looking at those research projects
5:10based on trial-and-error methods is
5:12enough to make you laugh for half an
5:13hour. If it weren’t for the paid
5:15access to China Knowledge Resource
5:16Integrated Database, would there even
5:17be any need for comedians like Guo
5:19Degang? Everyone could just read these
5:21papers for a good laugh. For instance,
5:23"The Role of Marxist Philosophy in
5:26Research on New Polymer Processing
5:28Technologies," or "The Practice and
5:31Understanding of Using Human
5:33Extrasensory Perception to Detect Oil
5:36and Gas Fields"—that last one was
5:38even published in a core Chinese
5:41geological journal. Relying on these
5:44monsters and demons, relying on this
5:46group of incompetent hacks. Can they
5:49really do good research? No wonder it's
5:52always the private sector in China that
5:54produces results. But then again,
5:56regarding the chip industry, even if
5:58they weren't corrupt, this endeavor
5:59still wouldn't succeed. Intel invests
6:0216.5 billion USD in R&D annually.
6:05Nvidia invests 12.5 billion USD in R&D
6:08annually, Samsung Electronics invests
6:119.5 billion USD, and the top 20 global
6:15chip companies invest a combined 98.6
6:18billion USD. China's "Big Fund" for
6:21chips certainly has an imposing name,
6:24but since 2014, it has invested a total
6:27of 1.5 trillion RMB, which is only
6:30about 200 billion USD. It’s already
6:33been 12 years since 2014. A total
6:35investment of 200 billion USD over 12
6:38years averages out to a scale of about
6:4016 billion USD per year. Mind you, the
6:42"Big Fund" isn't all R&D investment; it
6:45includes factories and machinery. If
6:47you actually calculate the real R&D
6:49expenditure over those 12 years, it's
6:52probably only around 30 billion USD, as
6:54the bulk went toward equipment, factory
6:57construction, and the like. That’s an
6:59average of only about 2.5 billion USD
7:02in R&D per year, which doesn't even
7:04reach 30%of the spare change of the
7:07chip alliance’s R&D budget—if you
7:09ignore the 90 billion and just look at
7:12the 8.5 billion, you still don't even
7:14reach a third of that. Even if we
7:16counted the land, factories, equipment,
7:19and all those costs as R&D expenses,
7:22China's annual R&D investment in the
7:25chip sector is equivalent to only 16%of
7:28the chip alliance's total. Your R&D
7:30spending is only 16%of theirs, what the
7:33hell are you even chasing? You still
7:35want to build a full industrial chain?
7:37If you want to do that and factor in
7:39the R&D investments of Japanese firms
7:41specializing in photoresists and
7:43abrasives, your investment is a mere
7:45fraction of a percent—how are you
7:47planning to overtake them around the
7:49bend? I’d say that’s a pipe dream,
7:51and even that’s a stretch; how is
7:52that any different from people who buy
7:54a two-dollar lottery ticket and sit at
7:56home waiting to hit the jackpot? This
7:58is no longer a case of a toad wishing
8:00to eat swan meat; this is a toad
8:02wanting to take flight instantly and
8:04jump straight to sleeping with the Moon
8:06Goddess. There couldn't possibly be a
8:08bigger daydream in the 21st century; no
8:11wonder they say Xi Jinping is a talent
8:13when it comes to dreaming. This must be
8:16the "China Dream." After all, I haven't
8:20even counted the cumulative investment
8:22in the chip industry abroad over the
8:24years, nor the massive intellectual
8:27assets and battle-tested talent teams
8:29they've built up. If you count those,
8:32the CCP's investment is physically just
8:35a drop in the ocean. And that's not a
8:37metaphor, it's a statement of fact—
8:39always looking for a bargain, dreaming
8:41of good things every day, and trying to
8:44play the big shot on a shoestring
8:46budget. So, China's chip industry right
8:49now is essentially a farce. Anyone with
8:52even a shred of ability will jump ship
8:54to Europe or America after a few years,
8:56potentially increasing their salary
8:58tenfold or even a hundredfold. Faced
9:00with such a gap, anyone who can do
9:02basic math knows what choice to make.
9:04Only those heavily brainwashed by
9:07concepts of nationalism will stay, but
9:09there's a problem: the vast majority of
9:11intelligent people on Earth aren't
9:14susceptible to such nationalistic
9:16brainwashing, creating a paradox. The
9:18people you want to keep usually won't
9:20accept your brainwashing. And those who
9:23do accept your brainwashing don't seem
9:25to be very smart. Expecting this group
9:28to catch up to the U.S. seems difficult
9:31. But then again, even if you could
9:33magically teleport all the chip
9:36companies from the U.S., Japan, Europe,
9:38and Taiwan to China overnight. And
9:41raised China's chip research funding to
9:44over $ 98 billion a year, this whole
9:46thing might still fail. Why is that?
9:49Scientific research in China is
9:51controlled by the administrative system
9:53. Having university bureaucrats who
9:56studied Chinese literature supervise
9:58scientific research is like having your
10:00Golden Retriever supervise the nanny to
10:03see if she's stealing. Even if the
10:05Golden Retriever wanted to do a good
10:07job, it's very difficult; it lacks the
10:09knowledge base and the mental capacity.
10:11Therefore, these Golden Retrievers can
10:13only mess around in areas they can
10:15actually understand. For example,
10:17checking if the invoice numbers in your
10:20expense reports are sequential, or if
10:22you signed the lab safety logs on time.
10:25When you try to expense supplies,
10:27they'll give you 800 forms to fill out.
10:30Here’s a cold hard fact. 60%or even
10:3270%of the energy in Chinese scientific
10:35research is spent filling out various
10:37reports and navigating bureaucratic
10:39processes. This isn't me just talking
10:41nonsense; the president of the Chinese
10:42Academy of Sciences once publicly
10:44appealed at the Two Sessions not to
10:46force scientists to become accountants,
10:48and Shi Yigong also publicly lamented
10:49that Chinese researchers have their
10:51energy drained by tedious paperwork and
10:53the running around required for funding
10:55applications. These people are all
10:57researchers, and reporting management
10:59is a massive waste of China's resources
11:01for those who are genuinely conducting
11:03research. The brain’s peak active
11:05time is limited; its most productive
11:08hours are just those few years. Using
11:10minds cultivated over decades—minds
11:13meant for scientific research—to fill
11:15out forms is a grave dereliction of
11:17duty, a massive waste, and a crime
11:20against the Chinese nation. Even an
11:22outsider like me can figure out that
11:24for research consumables, you should
11:27just provide what’s within a normal
11:29range. You should only be tracking
11:31outliers—those clearly abnormal
11:34amounts of usage. Tracking abnormal
11:36usage is fine, but why nag them over
11:39normal consumption? Not allowing any
11:41waste in research? Isn't that a damn
11:44joke? How can you conduct research
11:46without waste? How can you achieve
11:48those massive breakthroughs without it?
11:50Research is about the unknown; known
11:52things are just facts. When researching
11:54the unknown, how can you demand a
11:56guarantee of results before the work is
11:59even finished? Research by
12:01military-style mandates is pure fraud;
12:03it’s exactly like demanding that
12:05people gambling in Las Vegas guarantee
12:07they will win money. Researching the
12:09unknown while forbidding waste and
12:12demanding guaranteed results is like
12:14telling an angler, "Here is just this
12:16one hook, and you must catch a fish."
12:19The level of absurdity is so great that
12:21it even exceeds my ability to describe
12:23it; I sat in front of my computer for
12:25five minutes and couldn't think of how
12:27to vividly capture such absurdity. It
12:29is this group of absurd clowns who are
12:31directing China’s brightest minds on
12:33how to work; it’s as effective as a
12:35blind person giving directions, asking
12:37a [ __ ] to run errands, or having a
12:39mute pass a message to a deaf person.
12:41If the CCP can use this system to pull
12:44off a "corner-overtaking" maneuver in
12:47chips, then I would immediately convert
12:49to Communism and place an altar to
12:52Chairman Mao on my refrigerator. After
12:54all, I really can't figure out how this
12:56system can compete with the Wall Street
12:59research model. If I can't wrap my head
13:01around something, I attribute it to
13:03divine magic; complaining about form
13:05management isn't just me, nor did I
13:07invent some new viewpoint. Even someone
13:09like Qian Xuesen, who sucked up to the
13:11CCP his whole life—a man who could
13:13justify the feasibility of producing
13:15ten thousand jin of grain per mu to Mao
13:16Zedong—Even in his old age, he
13:18couldn't hold back his criticism,
13:19coming up with the so-called "Qian
13:21Xuesen Question.""Why is it that our
13:23schools always fail to cultivate
13:25outstanding talent?" Even his former
13:27student couldn't take his sycophancy
13:29for a lifetime, which shows how serious
13:31the problem is; with such a broken
13:33system, you're trying to compete
13:35against the Wall Street research model.
13:37Wall Street's research system is
13:39actually very scientific. It’s not
13:41that Wall Street regulates scientists.
13:44Wall Street buys scientists directly.
13:47Wall Street doesn't force you to
13:49produce results; they simply wait for
13:51them, and this approach is actually
13:53quite cost-effective. If you have no
13:55results, no one bothers with you;
13:57nobody has the time to supervise a pile
13:59of mediocre academic garbage. Regarding
14:02academic trash, the West takes a
14:03laissez-faire approach: I won't
14:05supervise you, I won't manage you, I
14:06won't evaluate you, and I won't
14:08encourage you. Compared to the CCP's
14:09system, which forces research personnel
14:11to produce results, the overall cost is
14:12much lower. What are they actually
14:14doing? They are simply waiting for
14:16geniuses who don't need supervision or
14:18management to produce results on their
14:20own. Once you achieve results, you take
14:22your PPT to Wall Street to tell your
14:25story, and those who believe in it will
14:27invest in you directly, buying your
14:29shares; the massive management costs
14:32saved from not overseeing mediocre
14:34research are all turned into investment
14:36capital and handed directly to those
14:38who can deliver. Such independent tech
14:42talent has immense autonomy. It makes
14:47sense that Musk was born in the U.S.;he
14:50could only receive such massive
14:52investment there, and only Wall
14:54Street's capital could support his
14:56dreams and grant him such extraordinary
14:58freedom. He doesn't have to report to
15:02anyone for how he uses his money; what
15:04a tremendous level of freedom that is.
15:06Technological inspiration is like
15:08urinating. When you have to go, it
15:11comes out naturally; if you don't,
15:13hiring 800 people to urge you is
15:15useless. I need inspiration just to
15:17write a script; I imagine scientific
15:19research requires far more. Freedom is
15:22like water; the more you drink, the
15:24more you naturally produce. If 800
15:26people are managing you and you have to
15:27file eight reports just to move, even
15:29if you have inspiration, they will
15:30drain it dry. If you make Musk report
15:32to a section chief before he can get
15:34funding, Musk's decision-making level
15:37will quickly sink to that of the
15:39section chief. After all, any report
15:41the section chief doesn't understand
15:42will be rejected. If you want funding,
15:44you have to create things the section
15:46chief can understand—but what kind of
15:48level can a section chief possibly have
15:50? Doesn't that just force geniuses to
15:52become mediocre? You are having
15:54low-level personnel approve the
15:56research projects of high-level
15:58personnel. It’s like handing a
15:59Picasso painting to a peasant; they’d
16:01think the paper is too rough even to
16:02wipe their backside with. Let’s take
16:04a step back. Even if China were to
16:07reform its system, fully adopt Western
16:09models, replicate their entire research
16:11framework, and grant high-level
16:13technical personnel absolute autonomy,
16:16it still wouldn’t work. Why? Because
16:19no single country on Earth can
16:21independently build such a magnificent
16:23industry. Dutch lithography, American
16:25etching, Japanese photoresists,
16:27Taiwanese foundry services, and Korean
16:29memory chips—the entire chip industry
16:31is highly decentralized across the
16:33globe. Why isn’t the chip industry
16:35concentrated in the U.S. or any other
16:37single country? Why don’t other
16:38countries try to develop the entire
16:40supply chain instead of integrating
16:41into the existing system and sticking
16:43to their own niche? Are they too
16:44foolish to realize how much more money
16:46a full supply chain could generate? Or
16:47is it that they simply dislike money
16:49and have no desire to profit more? The
16:51truth is that they simply cannot do it.
16:54No one on Earth can do it. To name one
16:56example, take the lithography machine
16:58made by the Dutch. ASML’s dependence
17:01on imported components is 85%. Without
17:03imported parts, ASML couldn’t build a
17:06single machine. Here’s a bit of
17:08trivia: the higher the precision of a
17:10part, the more its manufacturing
17:11resembles metaphysics. It becomes more
17:14like manual craft. The precision of the
17:16mirrors inside a lithography machine
17:18reaches the picometer level; no machine
17:21on Earth can automatically mass-produce
17:23this level of accuracy. This precision
17:25is achieved by top physicists and
17:27craftsmen through manual work based on
17:29intense personal experience,
17:31accompanied by a massive amount of
17:33scrap. For Zeiss, producing these
17:35mirrors is not a deterministic event;
17:38creating such a set of mirrors is a
17:40lucky event involving a huge amount of
17:43chance. A worker’s breath, vibrations
17:45in the cellar, or even the day’s air
17:47pressure can directly affect precision
17:49and wipe out months of production
17:51capacity. There are only a handful of
17:53such physicists and craftsmen on the
17:55entire planet. Only those few people on
17:57Earth possess this experience and skill
17:59. To put it bluntly, if these few
18:01people were to die in an accident, the
18:03optical manufacturing precision of the
18:04whole world would be severely impacted.
18:06Do you think these individuals would
18:08reserve nothing and share the vast
18:10amount of non-verbal, intuitive
18:12experience they’ve accumulated with
18:13the world? The chip industry is
18:15saturated with this kind of
18:17metaphysical, non-verbal, and intuitive
18:19experience. Using the same technology
18:21and the same lithography machines,
18:23TSMC’s yield rate simply crushes
18:25Samsung’s. At the precision level of
18:27lithography machines, even the most
18:29minute differences between machines can
18:31cause massive compounding effects. It
18:33seems every machine has its own "
18:35temperament," so TSMC’s engineering
18:37teams must spend years in the
18:39cleanrooms, relying on non-verbal,
18:41intuitive experience—noting things
18:44like "this machine sounds a bit muffled
18:46" or "this valve’s vibration
18:48frequency seems off"—to continuously
18:50calibrate faulty machines and maintain
18:52those that are still working. With all
18:55else being equal, this non-verbal,
18:57intuitive tuning experience is
18:59something Samsung and Intel cannot
19:01learn simply by reading manuals. There
19:04are countless similar cases; while
19:06researching this, I developed an
19:08instinctive sense of awe for the chip
19:10industry. The entire chip supply chain
19:13is a struggle against the limits of
19:15humanity and the limits of machinery.
19:19It requires a handful of geniuses
19:21filtered from 8 billion people, and
19:24one-in-a-thousand or
19:25one-in-ten-thousand talents to serve as
19:28the gears and cogs, to drive this
19:31greatest industrial miracle in human
19:34history. To hope that throwing a bit of
19:36money at it can solve the entire chip
19:39supply chain is like treating all the
19:41world’s heroes as mere horses and
19:43pawns. This is an extremely arrogant
19:46view that fails to regard the other 8
19:48billion people on Earth as human, and
19:51it is a foolish attempt to reinvent the
19:53wheel. It is a behavior that combines
19:56the three traits of extreme arrogance,
19:59ignorance, and stupidity. The
20:01foundation of human civilization is
20:03built on cooperation; the idea of
20:05playing alone and establishing an
20:07entire supply chain by oneself is
20:10fundamentally anti-human civilization.
20:12Can an endeavor that is arrogant,
20:14ignorant, stupid, and anti-human
20:17civilization ever succeed? I repeat: if
20:20it succeeds, I will immediately convert
20:22to communism, I will tattoo Xi Jinping
20:24on my back. Now, let’s take a step
20:26back and assume the worst-case scenario
20:28. Let’s assume communism has
20:30performed a miracle. Lenin’s portrait
20:32is shining on the moon, I have the
20:34Communist Manifesto on my fridge, I
20:36have Xi Jinping tattooed on my back, I
20:38study all day, I recite "Xi Jinping:
20:40The Governance of China," and through
20:42some unknowable power, the CCP has
20:43truly achieved this great feat. I am
20:45telling you, even if they pull it off,
20:48it still won't save China. In 2021,
20:51China generated 8.7 trillion RMB from
20:54land sales, which is about 1.35
20:57trillion USD. Land sales alone
21:00generated the equivalent of the entire
21:02GDP of a developed nation like
21:04Australia; land sales are direct
21:06revenue for local governments. If you
21:09were to replace this revenue with
21:11corporate taxes, based on a
21:13comprehensive tax rate of 6%, you would
21:16need an additional 145 trillion in
21:18social transaction volume to fill the
21:21void left by land-based finance. What
21:24kind of concept is 145 trillion? That
21:28is equivalent to the revenue of 4.2
21:31Nasdaqs; you would need the combined
21:34revenue of all companies on the entire
21:37Nasdaq, 4.2 times over, to satisfy this
21:40growth. In other words, if they want to
21:44maintain fiscal stability after the
21:47collapse of land finance and fill this
21:49tax shortfall through high-tech means,
21:52the CCP would need to not only
21:54replicate the entire U.S. Nasdaq within
21:57a few years but also rapidly add
21:59another three Nasdaqs in scale to meet
22:02the CCP's fiscal spending gap. A common
22:07fact: as everyone knows, there is only
22:10one Nasdaq on Earth. A less common fact
22:13: the total market value of 4.2 Nasdaqs
22:17is nearly the sum of all stock markets
22:20on the entire planet. To save the CCP's
22:23existing fiscal crisis, if they rely on
22:26the "new three" manufacturing
22:28industries, these industries would
22:30require a market the size of another
22:32Earth to satisfy the CCP's fiscal
22:35demands. Alternatively, they could move
22:37all of humanity's jobs to China. Either
22:40of these possibilities is far less
22:42likely than aliens arriving tomorrow to
22:44save all of mankind. This possibility
22:46is already absurd; even studying the
22:49likelihood of such things has become a
22:51laughable endeavor. Just thinking about
22:54the possibility of this behavior makes
22:56endless laughter appear in one's mind.
22:58Before the feeling of farce and comedy
23:01passes, a bone-chilling cold takes over
23:03: a fiscal crisis of this scale will
23:06inevitably brew a political crisis of
23:09equal magnitude. Calling a political
23:11crisis of this magnitude a "cataclysm"
23:13would not be an exaggeration. For so
23:15many years, we have been brainwashed
23:17into thinking that the prosperity of
23:19the U.S., Japan, and Europe is due to
23:20their high-tech manufacturing. There is
23:22some truth to this claim, but there is
23:25another fact we have turned a blind eye
23:27to for decades. That is, what actually
23:29props up the U.S. and European
23:30economies. It is, in fact, the service
23:33industry. In the U.S. GDP, the service
23:35sector accounts for 77%. France's
23:38service industry accounts for 70%of its
23:40GDP, and Japan's service industry also
23:43accounts for 70%. I won't list the
23:45others. For the U.S., Japan, and Europe
23:48, high-tech is certainly an important
23:50pillar, but their primary market
23:51entities are sustained by "inefficient"
23:53investments driven by countless people
23:55who are optimistic about these
23:57economies. High-tech is, at best, their
23:59advertising signboard. The 8 billion
24:02people on Earth are optimistic about
24:04the future of the U.S. and Europe. The
24:06wealthy in developing countries want to
24:08use investments in the U.S. and Europe
24:10as funds for retirement or to move
24:11their assets abroad, like in Vanke's
24:13case, for instance; their tolerance for
24:15investment efficiency and rates of
24:17return is extremely high. Large amounts
24:19of low-efficiency, or even
24:20non-efficient, investments have parked
24:22astronomical sums of capital, and these
24:25parked funds have created a spiral of
24:27rising asset prices and wages in the
24:28West, artificially producing an effect
24:31of wealth redistribution. Since
24:32developed nations are the final
24:34destination for capital, money flowing
24:36into Europe and America stays within
24:38the pot; it creates a dynamic where
24:40your loss is someone else’s gain, and
24:42the money you squander becomes someone
24:44else’s revenue. This situation has
24:46led to a continuous upward spiral in
24:48consumption and labor costs, eventually
24:50fostering a massive, overshadowing tree
24:52that accounts for 67%of GDP in Europe
24:54and America. China’s wealthy
24:55second-generation heirs, and even the
24:57children of officials, are all rushing
24:59to Europe and America to start
25:00businesses, squander their wealth, and
25:02make ineffective investments. For
25:04instance, they drive Ferraris in the
25:06United States. Xi Jinping’s
25:07brothers-in-law and others are all in
25:09Australia, though I don’t know if
25:11they drive Ferraris too. Making money
25:12at home and spending it in Europe or
25:14America is the daily reality for the
25:16wealthy in most developing countries
25:18around the world. In this state of
25:20continuous capital hemorrhaging, hoping
25:23that a few high-tech sectors will drive
25:25a national rise or allow for a "
25:27lane-change overtake" is pure fantasy.
25:30Without the rule of law and democratic
25:32institutions, you cannot provide
25:33security to the wealthy; they may not
25:35even feel any sense of belonging. In a
25:37country where even the middle class is
25:39contemplating emigration, what is the
25:41difference between obsessing over
25:43international strategy, the rise of the
25:45East and decline of the West, and
25:47global hegemony, and someone earning
25:49three thousand a month obsessing over
25:51Lamborghinis and Ferraris? Is this
25:53really what you should be studying?
25:55Hoping that the manufacturing sector
25:57can play the role of Nüwa patching the
25:58sky to fill the black-hole-level fiscal
26:00deficit of the CCP. One might as well
26:03just hope for aliens to save all of
26:05humanity. If I had to use one word to
26:07describe Xi Jinping’s "patching the
26:10sky" plan for productivity, I would
26:12firmly choose "absurd." Before Xi took
26:15power, I actually always prayed
26:17silently. Praying for the success of
26:19the great rejuvenation of the Chinese
26:21nation. After Xi took power, I have
26:24always prayed silently, praying that my
26:26deductions and my logic are all
26:28entirely wrong. I sincerely hope from
26:30the bottom of my heart that I am just a
26:32person worrying needlessly about the
26:34sky falling. I beg the "little pinks"
26:36in the comments section to convince me;
26:39I want to have that positive energy too
26:41, and I want to live happily and full
26:43of hope. Please, my "little pink"
26:46brothers. Next video. Why does
26:49high-pressure anti-corruption not fit
26:51China’s national conditions, and why
26:54is high-pressure anti-corruption a
26:55death warrant for the Chinese economy?
26:57I am Chengyiguo, see you next time.

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