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“아마존도 94% 무너졌던 시절” 흔들리는 시장에서 베이조스가 붙잡은 ‘다음 기준’ — Transcript

by 위즈덤투스 · 2,652 words · 442 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00In April 2001, Amazon released its
0:02shareholder letter along with its annual
0:04report. The first word of the letter
0:06written by Jeff Bezos was "Ouch." Ouch,
0:09it hurts. Something like that, right?
0:11The letter began with an admission that
0:13it had been a truly brutal year for many
0:14in the capital markets and for Amazon
0:16shareholders.
0:17Yes, it certainly was.
0:19The stock price, which had exceeded $
0:21106 in December 1999, was in the $ 14
0:23range by the time the letter was
0:24released.
0:25In Bezos's own words, the stock price
0:27had fallen more than 80%since he wrote
0:29the letter the previous year. And after
0:32the letter was released, it fell even
0:34further to $ 5.97. It dropped by 94%
0:37from its peak. This was the result of
0:40the dot-com bubble.
0:42However, the content of the letter
0:44showed that customers had increased from
0:4614 million to 20 million, and revenue
0:48grew from $ 1.64 billion to $ 2.76
0:50billion.
0:52Excluding one-time charges, the
0:53fourth-quarter operating loss narrowed
0:55from 26%of revenue to 6%.
0:57Yes, the direction was clearly improving
1:00. And then Bezos asks himself a question
1:02. The company is better than it was a
1:04year ago, so why is the stock price so
1:06low? Yes, in response, Bezos quotes this
1:08sentence, attributing it to Benjamin
1:11Graham. In the short run, the stock
1:13market is a voting machine; in the long
1:15run, it is a weighing machine. In 1999,
1:17there was a lot of voting, but very
1:19little weighing. We are a company that
1:22wants to be evaluated by its weight. Now
1:24, today, we will go back to the year
1:262000 to discuss what we need to check in
1:28a volatile market.
1:32Hello. This is Wisdom House. You see, a
1:35stock is buying a piece of a company.
1:37If you divide the market cap by the
1:39number of shares, that becomes one share
1:41.
1:42Ultimately, a stock price is determined
1:44by the product of two numbers: the money
1:46the company earns and the multiple the
1:48market is willing to pay for that money
1:50.
1:50If you express that as a formula, it is
1:52Earnings Per Share (EPS) multiplied by
1:54the P/E multiple. It is easy to
1:56understand if you apply Benjamin
1:58Graham's voting and weighing machine
2:00concept here. It is mostly the multiple
2:02, or P/E ratio, that shakes the
2:04short-term stock price.
2:06Risks that aren't specific and cannot be
2:08easily calculated, such as interest
2:10rates, fear, trends, supply and demand,
2:12or delays in data center construction,
2:14tend to spread and expand.
2:17Investor psychology comes into play.
2:19Also, modern program trading where
2:21selling triggers more selling, along
2:23with high-leverage derivatives,
2:24amplifies that volatility.
2:26Information has become faster, but it
2:28seems even harder for individual
2:29investors.
2:30The cycles of boom and bust are getting
2:32shorter.
2:34However, what drives the stock price
2:36over the long term is profit—the weight
2:39the company actually earns. Amazon was
2:41the opposite.
2:43Even while it plummeted 94%, the weight
2:45of the number of customers, revenue, and
2:48loss ratios kept improving.
2:50Yes, of course, it also took time for
2:52that weight to be reflected in the stock
2:54price again. It wasn't until October
2:562009, about 10 years later, that it
2:59recovered its 1999 peak. But in the
3:02meantime, Amazon introduced Prime in
3:042005 and AWS in 2006.
3:06And Amazon, which now owns the largest
3:09data centers, started its cloud business
3:11in 2006.
3:12This includes the entire time when the
3:14stock price was ignored.
3:16But, of course, since it took 10 years
3:18to reach the previous high, no investor
3:21would have just bought at the 1999 peak
3:23and waited to break even.
3:26They would have seen the business
3:28improving and continued to invest their
3:29earnings into it.
3:31What we are looking at now is the long
3:33story of a company.
3:53To make this easier to understand, to
3:54borrow a phrase from Howard Marks,
3:56investment success comes not from buying
3:58good things, but from buying them well.
4:01So, there are four things to check when
4:03looking at a company in a bear market.
4:05First is performance, revenue and profit
4:07, and whether they are moving in the
4:08direction I expected. Second is growth.
4:11How many years of growth were priced
4:13into the price I paid. And it is
4:16necessary to verify whether the pace of
4:18that growth remains valid. Third is the
4:20investment thesis. Why did I buy this
4:22company? Did I buy it for a quick trade
4:25or did I buy it for the long term?
4:27Is the reason for buying still valid?
4:29Because the market is always changing.
4:31And fourth is the current market
4:33temperature. It is remembering once
4:35again the fact that it is a bear market
4:37. There is a saying that Oaktree's
4:39Howard Marks often uses. We don't know
4:42where we are going, but we must know
4:44where we are standing.
4:46In other words, since it's impossible to
4:47predict tomorrow's stock price, give
4:49that up, but you must be able to
4:50diagnose whether the market is currently
4:52hot or cold.
4:54And according to that diagnosis, you
4:55position your investment stance
4:57somewhere between offense and defense.
5:00This means it’s not an on-off switch
5:02where you buy everything or sell
5:03everything, but like the dimmers in your
5:05kitchen or living room.
5:07It’s a method of turning a dial little
5:09by little to adjust the intensity of the
5:11light. There is a way to gauge the
5:12temperature of the market.
5:14For example, if you look at the current
5:16market, there is the optimistic logic
5:18that blindly believes in AI, saying the
5:20market will rise unconditionally.
5:22Or the blind pessimistic logic that says
5:24AI will fail completely because data
5:26centers are being delayed.
5:28It is admitting that these two logics
5:30are fighting against each other. To
5:31reiterate, both have blind
5:33characteristics, and there is something
5:35missing in this logic. It overlooks
5:37fundamental macroeconomic factors like
5:39interest rates, oil prices, and
5:41inflation, which dictate the cost of
5:43money, corporate value, and future
5:45multiples.
5:46However, when the market moves violently
5:48, it tends to be driven by this kind of
5:50blind logic.
5:52Now, let’s return to the concept of
5:54value. Value is not something determined
5:56solely by the PER. Even forward PER is
5:58data that is already fully reflected in
6:00the stock price. Because it is derived
6:02from prices calculated by companies or
6:04the market alongside next year’s
6:06earnings estimates, forward PER cannot
6:08be seen as a guarantee of the future.
6:10Therefore, you cannot simply look at PER
6:12data and claim that a stock will
6:14unconditionally rise in the future.
6:16One method used to evaluate stock prices
6:19is Professor Damodaran's Discounted Cash
6:21Flow (DCF) model. The factors that go
6:24into this calculation are as follows.
6:26While some factors are calculated as
6:28numbers, such as cash flow and growth
6:30rates, qualitative assessments that are
6:32hard to quantify—like industry dominance
6:34, competitive advantages, or "moats,"
6:35which we can think of as a company's
6:37story—are applied as discount rates.
6:40This allows for a quantitative
6:41calculation of the fair stock price.
6:44The reason I often talk about CEOs on
6:46YouTube is that I believe data about the
6:49CEO must be included in this qualitative
6:51assessment; by studying that content, I
6:54think those stories should also be
6:56reflected in the fair price.
6:59In fact, just as blind logic determines
7:01stock prices, valuation itself also
7:04incorporates qualitative stories. The
7:06stock price shouldn't be swayed by those
7:08stories alone, but they can be used to
7:09calculate whether the discount rate
7:10should be higher or lower. Or, in other
7:12words, it allows us to calculate whether
7:14we should value it more highly or not.
7:17So, in a violent market where stock
7:20prices fall irrationally and the logic
7:22that drove the market up until now is
7:25overturned overnight, if something goes
7:28wrong in a qualitative aspect you
7:30weren't aware of—despite the stock's PER
7:33looking attractive—you often find
7:35yourself in a situation during every
7:38market downturn, especially crashes,
7:40where the stock price drops without
7:43explanation,
7:45only for you to realize the reason in
7:47hindsight. Investors who lack a clear
7:50standard often end up committing the
7:51error of holding on until the very end,
7:53only to dump their stocks at the bottom
7:55. In reality, when the market shows
7:57crazy volatility, it is best for
7:59investors to take a conservative stance
8:01. If this sounds like I'm saying you
8:03should sell because prices will fall
8:05further, then that is a misunderstanding
8:07, as the message was either poorly
8:08communicated or wrongly interpreted.
8:10Someone might look at the market’s
8:11temperature and think, "If it goes up a
8:13little and I break even, I’m selling."
8:15Or, if you are dominated by the mindset
8:17that you should stop your losses as soon
8:19as there is a slight rebound, you need
8:20to be aware that this can lead to a
8:22bearish market where institutions short
8:24the stock at the slightest rise.
8:27After hearing everything so far, you
8:29shouldn't interpret this as the market
8:31falling further; the point is that
8:33whether you are stopping your losses,
8:35managing risk, or selling your stocks,
8:37you should not end up panic selling
8:39after holding on and eventually losing
8:41patience.
8:43You have to do it according to your own
8:45rules and principles.
8:47Therefore, you need rules from the
8:49moment you buy a company, such as
8:50limiting your risk so it doesn't drop
8:52past a certain point.
8:55Those rules involve your own valuation
8:57method as mentioned earlier; since DCF
8:59calculations are very complex and there
9:01is no single right answer, you need to
9:03factor those things in.
9:06Through such a process, you can
9:07understand the market sentiment and
9:09decide whether to keep holding this
9:10stock or, if you've decided to hold on,
9:12trust that the company will surely
9:14improve regardless of how the market
9:15turns.
9:17If you have decided that since you have
9:20some cash on hand, you will boldly
9:22increase your position or add to it
9:24during an uptrend, then you just hold on
9:26even if the market is tough until that
9:29time comes.
9:30Otherwise, you must liquidate it
9:32according to your principles.
9:35Oaktree raised 11 billion dollars from
9:38January 2007 to March 2008 to buy
9:40distressed debt and waited, then started
9:42buying when everyone was panic selling
9:44in September 2008.
9:47They defend when it's hot and go on the
9:49offensive when it's cold. Yes, of course
9:51, because this is done by institutions,
9:52it is necessary to distinguish that
9:54individuals are different.
9:56Rather than thinking in a contrarian way
9:57, the point is that you need to have
9:59defensive assets you can use when a
10:00crisis hits.
10:02Moving on to some side notes.
10:04The S&P 500 is divided into 11 sectors.
10:08Technology, communication, consumer
10:10discretionary, financials, industrials,
10:12materials, energy, and real estate REITs
10:14.
10:14So, there are sectors that are sensitive
10:16to the economy.
10:17There are defensive sectors like
10:18consumer staples, healthcare, and
10:20utilities where revenue doesn't drop
10:21significantly even when the economy
10:23worsens.
10:24Yes, big money in the U.S. moves between
10:26these sectors depending on the economic
10:28cycle.
10:29Money rotates within these sectors.
10:31Utility divides the economy into four
10:33phases for explanation.
10:35In the early stage of emerging from a
10:37recession, interest rates are low, so
10:39cyclical stocks like financials,
10:40consumer discretionary, industrials, and
10:42tech stocks tend to lead.
10:44In the mid-cycle, which lasts the
10:46longest, tech and industrial stocks
10:48often gain strength.
10:50In 2026, it was these tech and
10:51industrial stocks that rose strongly in
10:53the first half of the year. But in the
10:55late stage when the economy is mature
10:57and inflation rises, energy, materials,
10:59and defensive stocks hold up. When
11:01entering a recession, consumer staples,
11:03utilities, and healthcare are relatively
11:05strong. Hearing this now, you must be
11:07very confused.
11:08It’s a basic pattern, but to understand
11:10it easily: when tech stocks rise and
11:12start to fall, consumer goods and
11:14healthcare do well, and when those fall
11:16, financial stocks improve.
11:19The cycle turns like that, and then tech
11:22stocks become good again; of course, the
11:24order can get jumbled due to external
11:26issues.
11:28But the macro environment is added to
11:30this.
11:31Especially for small-cap growth stocks,
11:33they rely on future earnings, so when
11:35interest rates rise, the cost of money
11:37becomes expensive.
11:39Then, those future profits are
11:40discounted more heavily in present value
11:42. That is why small-cap growth stocks
11:44keep falling when interest rates rise.
11:47Now, if you look at past statistics, in
11:492000, the S&P 500 fell by 10%. Tech
11:52stocks fell by 38%and telecommunications
11:55by 41%. But conversely, utilities,
11:57healthcare, and financials rose by 20 to
12:0030%.
12:011999 was a period when tech stocks were
12:03skyrocketing.
12:04Even in the famous 2022 bear market.
12:07The S&P 500 fell 18%, but the energy
12:10sector rose 60%, and while tech stocks
12:13dropped 40%, defensive stocks gained.
12:16And then, tech stocks experience a very
12:18big rise again.
12:20So, for U.S. stocks, with cycles of at
12:22least one to two years, it constantly
12:24repeats: tech stocks do well, then
12:26defensive stocks do well, then tech does
12:29well again, then defensive does well,
12:31and when a big event hits, the S&P 500
12:33drops sharply, a major correction occurs
12:35, and once it escapes that, it goes into
12:37a major bull market.
12:40Then, thinking in terms of this pattern
12:41, since it’s been about four to five
12:43months since tech stocks started to fall
12:45, are they going to rise soon?
12:48You don’t necessarily have to think of
12:50it as a fixed formula, but there is a
12:52huge difference between holding only
12:53tech stocks at this point versus holding
12:55healthcare, financials, and consumer
12:57goods together.
12:59This means that just because the index
13:01falls, it doesn't mean all money leaves
13:03the market to run into cash.
13:06You can tell by looking at government
13:07bond yields as well. Capital often
13:08shifts its position, and moving around
13:10within the market is what we call sector
13:13rotation. If a crash comes where all
13:15sectors fall, there are always sectors
13:17that rise selectively. Differentiation
13:19between stocks emerges within that.
13:22Individual investors often go all-in on
13:24the strongest sectors of the year, so
13:26diversifying to lower risk and
13:28effectively utilizing rebalancing based
13:30on sector rotation not only helps with
13:33profits but also plays a huge role in
13:35defending your account during downturns
13:37, especially violent market drops.
13:41Of course, if a recession hits, all
13:42stocks will fall, and the two scenarios
13:44where you might see all stocks
13:46depreciate are economic recession and
13:48stagflation.
13:50But the central bank adjusts interest
13:52rates to prevent this, and I hope you
13:54remember the fact that the price of
13:55money is ultimately set based on those
13:57rates, and the discount rate for stock
13:59prices changes according to the price of
14:01money.
14:02We are currently seeing a volatile
14:04market.
14:05In such a volatile market, investors
14:07must worry about potential drops if it
14:09is the market peak, but now is a time to
14:12monitor and keep thinking about how the
14:14market will turn around and head toward
14:17an uptrend after a significant decline.
14:20So, when looking at stocks, you
14:23shouldn't just look at corporate value,
14:25PER, PBR, or PSR; even when you look at
14:28value, discerning whether the market
14:31temperature, macro environment, and
14:33market logic are warm, cold, or hot
14:36might seem complex, but these are
14:38thoughts you develop by observing the
14:41market and news while constantly
14:43thinking for yourself.
14:46Of course, just because you do all of
14:48this doesn't mean you can always profit
14:49from every swing. There is almost no one
14:51in this world who can perfectly time
14:53every peak and trough of the stock
14:54market.
14:56With the premise that it is impossible
14:58to time the bottom and the top, I hope
15:01you remember that surviving within the
15:03ecology and logic of the stock market
15:06and its irrational movements is how a
15:08stock investor, especially a retail
15:10investor with a day job, can survive and
15:13eventually enjoy the bull market with
15:15profits.
15:17Good luck. I wish you happiness and
15:19wealth. Thank you.

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