$80M Investor: You Have 5 Years Left To Get Rich — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00When I made [music] the trade, I almost
- 0:01threw off. I was losing insane amounts
- 0:03of money every week.
- 0:04>> Did you make a million dollars during co
- 0:06>> I made
- 0:07>> Chris Camino turned $20,000 into $80
- 0:09million by spotting trading
- 0:11opportunities hiding in plain sight.
- 0:12Today, nearly 400,000 people on Twitter
- 0:15follow his every move.
- 0:16>> So, what does Chris see that the rest of
- 0:17us miss?
- 0:18>> Hey, can you learn to see it, too?
- 0:19>> I've traded every shoe trend that's ever
- 0:21happened, and I've nailed almost every
- 0:23one of them.
- 0:23>> So, you're saying someone that's
- 0:24starting with $1,000 could potentially
- 0:27replicate what you did?
- 0:28>> Yeah. my competition has like increased,
- 0:31but most of that is just her mentality.
- 0:33If you just become an investor, you've
- 0:36already won.
- 0:36>> There's a secret stock that you haven't
- 0:38talked about publicly.
- 0:40>> So,
- 0:42so we talked a little bit before we sat
- 0:45down and there's a secret stock that you
- 0:48haven't talked about publicly that
- 0:51you're doing a deep research on right
- 0:52now. and we sealed up that envelope
- 0:56right there and we put the ticker and
- 0:58company name in there. And you're going
- 1:00to tell us in just a little bit about
- 1:01why you think that could be another huge
- 1:03play. And I know you just had a huge
- 1:05play on Amazon. So, congrats there. But
- 1:08I want to start before we get there with
- 1:09you turned roughly $20,000
- 1:12into more than $80 million by finding
- 1:16information on your phone that Wall
- 1:18Street missed.
- 1:20Explain to me how you did that. like I'm
- 1:23five years old.
- 1:25>> Yeah, it probably started a bit before I
- 1:27had a phone. I don't know, 2007 is when
- 1:30the journey started. There was Was the
- 1:32iPhone around back then? I don't even
- 1:34remember.
- 1:35>> It may have just been coming out.
- 1:36[laughter] iPhone 1 or two maybe.
- 1:39>> Yeah. Back
- 1:39>> 2003 or four maybe.
- 1:41>> Back then a lot of what I did was
- 1:44offline or if it was online it was like
- 1:47Facebook on a on a computer, right?
- 1:51>> [laughter]
- 1:51>> It's like going way back. Um,
- 1:56it's just observational investing,
- 1:58right? So, it's this thing I discovered
- 2:00when I was a kid, uh, just by pure
- 2:04random chance walking into a 7-Eleven,
- 2:06buying a Snapple lemon flavored iced tea
- 2:10like I did every morning. And they had
- 2:13sold out of them. And the reason they
- 2:16sold out of them is because they only
- 2:18had like half of one refrigerator door
- 2:21of Snapple where they had always had two
- 2:23full refrigerators. So there was a lot
- 2:26of new competition that was coming into
- 2:29play. I think like maybe Arizona Ice Tea
- 2:31and others. Talked to the clerk about
- 2:33it. My older brother was a stock broker.
- 2:36I said, "Hey, this has got to be bad for
- 2:38Snapple. Can you teach me how to make
- 2:40money off of this?" He taught me how to
- 2:42short Snapple with puts. their earnings
- 2:44was just a few weeks away. I gave them
- 2:47all the money I had in the world, which
- 2:48was $300, which I had made from, you
- 2:52know, buying and selling items at garage
- 2:54sales, which is what I did when I was a
- 2:56kid, like Gary Vee style. Uh, and he
- 3:00bought puts on Snapple in his account
- 3:03for me. And it was the first quarter
- 3:06that they ever had bad earnings cuz
- 3:07inventory was building up because
- 3:09retailers like 7-Eleven were introducing
- 3:12new competitive products. And I was
- 3:14like, "This is crazy. I tripled my money
- 3:16in a few weeks." And I was immediately
- 3:19hooked uh with investing. You know,
- 3:22ironically, like I didn't realize that
- 3:24what I had discovered was going to be
- 3:26the strategy I'd be using as an adult
- 3:29because I ended up reading like every
- 3:31book that had ever been written on
- 3:32investing. and I got really into it and
- 3:34I basically did nothing but lose money
- 3:36year after year after year, [laughter]
- 3:37right? Um, doing everything but
- 3:40observational investing cuz like who
- 3:42would think as like a teenager that you
- 3:45would have, you know, an optimal
- 3:49methodology for investing more so than
- 3:52professionals have. It didn't make any
- 3:55sense. But if you think about it,
- 3:57anybody could have seen what I saw at
- 3:597-Eleven. So like why did the stock move
- 4:02down so much? Like why did professionals
- 4:06why did hedge fund managers not have
- 4:08that alpha like just by going to the
- 4:11store?
- 4:13And you know I've come to realize over
- 4:14the last few decades that the market is
- 4:17actually meaningfully inefficient uh
- 4:20when it comes to so many things. And
- 4:22still today in 2026,
- 4:24there are just massive opportunities
- 4:28to observe really simple things
- 4:32that surface alpha in the market that no
- 4:36one else is seeing because so many
- 4:39investors, institutional and retail, are
- 4:43completely consumed with noise. They're
- 4:47talking about the Fed. They're talking
- 4:49about interest rates, the Iran war, what
- 4:52is Trump going to say? Everybody's
- 4:54focused on the same 20 companies. You
- 4:58know what I'm saying? So, it's like,
- 5:00it's crazy to me that it's 2026
- 5:04and yet the market is just so distracted
- 5:08still. And it's still really easy for
- 5:11someone who's willing to be an
- 5:12independent thinker and actually do a
- 5:15little bit of real work and research
- 5:18[laughter] And like in my case, like
- 5:21observe the world and try to connect
- 5:23dots quicker than others to investable
- 5:25opportunities that somebody can do that
- 5:28just as a regular person. But you if I
- 5:32like tell you one thing, it's that you
- 5:34absolutely can. And this is like this is
- 5:36actually my biggest debate with people.
- 5:38They're like, "It's not that easy,
- 5:39Chris. Not everybody can do what you
- 5:41do." I'm like, "Dude,
- 5:43there are now hundreds of thousands of
- 5:45people that do this, observational
- 5:46investors in my community alone,
- 5:49and they're all doing it." Like, a lot
- 5:51of them are at this point, some of them
- 5:53are making way better returns than me
- 5:55doing it. And they're like plumbers,
- 5:57they're UPS drivers, they're dentists,
- 6:00they're homemakers, they're retirees.
- 6:03Some of them are high school kids, you
- 6:05know, high school, college kids. uh
- 6:07they're just going around observing the
- 6:09world looking for shifts in culture,
- 6:12shifts in consumer behavior, uh
- 6:15connecting dots on trends like who would
- 6:18benefit, who's going to be harmed by
- 6:20this trend, and then they're making
- 6:22investments purely based on that and
- 6:24winning. So like it's just it's a thing.
- 6:27So, you're saying someone that's
- 6:29starting out today with $1,000 could
- 6:31potentially realistically replicate what
- 6:34you did and in some cases beat your
- 6:37returns. When I think about this myself,
- 6:40I think about, well, you know, when I
- 6:42started getting Amazon packages at my
- 6:44house, I was like, wow, I don't have to
- 6:46go anywhere anymore. Oh, now I can get
- 6:48groceries. I I can I can just get
- 6:50everything from Amazon. Or like when I
- 6:52first was in a Tesla and it was driving
- 6:54itself, I was like, well, this is I
- 6:56don't want to drive. This is amazing.
- 6:57It's driving for me. Are those the type
- 6:59of observational things that you're
- 7:02looking for? Is it a little bit deeper
- 7:03with the research?
- 7:05>> Yeah. What you said and like a thousand
- 7:07other things just like that. Yeah. Is
- 7:09there are there other things you need to
- 7:12do or you should be doing as part of
- 7:14your trade strategy? Absolutely.
- 7:17um you know you find something that you
- 7:20think is really a gamecher like wow the
- 7:23first time you got in a Tesla like
- 7:25you're saying or some new product that
- 7:28is just trending so hard uh you have to
- 7:31ask yourself you know is there a
- 7:34publicly traded company that this will
- 7:36move the needle for right because it
- 7:39might be part of a diversified company
- 7:42and it might only be like onetenth of 1%
- 7:45of that company's sales
- 7:47Like when that fancy bottled water went
- 7:50viral a year ago cuz that Tik Tok guy,
- 7:54>> do you know what I'm talking about? He
- 7:55go, "Come [laughter] on, dude. Come on."
- 7:57He he gets up at like 5 in the morning.
- 7:59He dunks his head in a bowl of ice.
- 8:02You'll have to put it on the screen. But
- 8:03but but that water went super viral. And
- 8:06everybody was hitting me up. They're
- 8:07like, "Chris, is this a is this a social
- 8:09trade? Is this an observational trade?"
- 8:11>> I was like, "Well, let's see who owns
- 8:13that water." And the company that owned
- 8:16that brand of water owned so many other
- 8:20things and so many other bigger brands
- 8:21of water that even if they were to
- 8:24double triple sales of that water
- 8:26because of this hyperviral Tik Tok, you
- 8:28know, content,
- 8:31it was never going to move the needle
- 8:33for this company. So you have to
- 8:35understand, is it going to move the
- 8:37revenue needle? Is it going to move the
- 8:39perception needle? Is it going to move
- 8:41the you know the cost needle for this
- 8:45for any publicly traded company? And
- 8:47that's the first thing that you have to
- 8:49answer. Then you have to say okay if it
- 8:52is a needle mover if it is a gamecher
- 8:54for a publicly traded company. To what
- 8:57degree do other investors already know
- 9:00about it? That's that's really important
- 9:03obviously.
- 9:03>> But how do you figure that out?
- 9:05>> So how do you figure it out? You go to
- 9:07where other investors are. Where are
- 9:10other investors, right? Institutional
- 9:12investors talk about what they know
- 9:15through reports, sellside reports that
- 9:18banks issue, um, interviews, you know,
- 9:22CNBC even. Uh, a lot of them have
- 9:27private reports that you can try to get
- 9:29your hands on. Uh, a lot of them will
- 9:32talk about what they know, uh, during
- 9:34the Q&A session of an earnings call that
- 9:36everyone has access to. Uh then when you
- 9:39go down the line to retail investors,
- 9:41they're everywhere, right? They're on X,
- 9:43they're on Stock Twits, uh they are, you
- 9:47know, writing stuff on Seek and Alpha,
- 9:50they're on all these forums. So you have
- 9:53to see what they're writing about as it
- 9:56relates to that particular company or
- 9:58stock. Do they already know about this
- 10:00thing? Because if they know about it,
- 10:02they're writing about it and they're
- 10:03talking about it on YouTube, right?
- 10:06maybe even on Tik Tok or or on X. So,
- 10:09you just have to assess to what degree
- 10:13do other investors already know about
- 10:16this thing or truly appreciate how big
- 10:18of a deal this thing is going to be for
- 10:20this company. So, once you determine
- 10:23that it's a needle mover and that it
- 10:26hasn't been fully saturated in terms of
- 10:28that information amongst other
- 10:31investors.
- 10:33And then the third last thing you have
- 10:34to figure out is is there something else
- 10:38happening at or to that company that is
- 10:43more important than this thing that you
- 10:46found during the time frame of your
- 10:49trade, right? And if there's not, you
- 10:51might you might have something big. Uh,
- 10:55and then you're you're really the last
- 10:56thing that you have to do is you have to
- 10:58figure out when do I think other people
- 11:01are going to find out about this. Are
- 11:03they likely to find out about this?
- 11:05Because, you know, the trade revolves
- 11:09around a movie that I think is going to
- 11:11be a hit that's going to positively
- 11:14impact maybe the product that the
- 11:16movie's about. That was my Barbie trade.
- 11:18Or maybe the studio. Uh that was my uh
- 11:22Lionsgate trade back in the day with
- 11:24Hunger Games and Lionsgate was a
- 11:26publicly traded company. Like maybe then
- 11:28it's the release date of the movie. Uh
- 11:31if it's a product that you know hedge
- 11:35funds can track like at a big retail
- 11:37store, you know that hedge funds buy
- 11:40institutional
- 11:41credit card transaction data. So weeks
- 11:45before earnings come out, they usually
- 11:47have a print of people buying more or
- 11:51less of that company's product. So maybe
- 11:54you can make an assessment. They'll
- 11:56probably know about this within a few
- 11:57weeks of earnings. And if not, usually
- 12:00information will come out on an earnings
- 12:02call because that's when the rubber
- 12:04meets the road, right? If there's
- 12:06something positively impacting the
- 12:07company, it shows up on revenue that's
- 12:09unexpected.
- 12:11Also, the management team, they'll do
- 12:14I've literally been on thousands of
- 12:16these calls, right? They'll say, "Hey,
- 12:19the quarter was a huge beat because of
- 12:22this, and you just nailed it cuz you
- 12:24knew what this was before anyone else."
- 12:29And if you think about it,
- 12:32if you go through all the major earnings
- 12:35beats and misses through the years, you
- 12:39can backtrack,
- 12:41not all of them, but backtrack a lot of
- 12:45them to a moment in time when that thing
- 12:49that drove the company to beat or miss
- 12:52earnings earlier in the quarter
- 12:54materialized. that you as an investor if
- 12:58you knew where to look and what to look
- 13:01for you could have potentially found it.
- 13:04So like I tell investors the best way to
- 13:07be an observational investor is anytime
- 13:09you see like a big earnings report where
- 13:12a stock jumps or falls meaningfully
- 13:16was it due to one thing and if it was
- 13:19try to assess
- 13:22was there potential for me to identify
- 13:24that thing early or not and you have to
- 13:28just get in the rhythm of looking for
- 13:31these things all the time but yeah it's
- 13:34just it's the process, but it's a
- 13:36process that anyone can do. Like you
- 13:38don't need to be like this pedigreed
- 13:43Harvard, Stanford, Wharton grad who's
- 13:47like a 10 of 10 financial analyst. Like
- 13:50you don't need to be that person and you
- 13:54don't need to be a math wiz. This is not
- 13:56about technical trading. This is not
- 13:58about understanding algorithms
- 14:00truthfully. Like you just have to be a
- 14:03good investigative journalist
- 14:05>> like or you have to be I don't know like
- 14:09um
- 14:09>> a private investigator.
- 14:10>> A private investigator, right? Like I
- 14:13think like a private investigator or an
- 14:15investigative journalist would be like
- 14:17the ideal person that would have this
- 14:20mindset. Of course, you know, a lot of
- 14:24this alpha, a lot of these trades,
- 14:28the ideas for them were just surfaced
- 14:32from real life. So, people that just
- 14:35naturally
- 14:37have their feet like planted deeply in
- 14:40culture and real life and that are
- 14:42living and like you're reading the
- 14:45socials every day. You're seeing what's
- 14:48trending. you understand how culture is
- 14:50shifting. When there's a hot product,
- 14:53you're seeing it on your feed, right?
- 14:56That's like ordinary people. Those are
- 14:59the people that are like best position
- 15:02to actually surface change in the world
- 15:05as it's happening because they're
- 15:07observing the world organically just
- 15:11over the course of their life. So like
- 15:13the only different thing you have to do
- 15:16is train your mind that when you see
- 15:18something to to like stop for a second
- 15:21and say, "Hey, could this potentially be
- 15:24impactful to a company?" And then start
- 15:27the process of trying to connect the
- 15:28dots. And that's where it's been that's
- 15:31where like today is the easiest time
- 15:34ever to be an observational investor
- 15:36because that used to be the hardest
- 15:38part. That used to be the part where you
- 15:40kind of had to be a smart person to try
- 15:42to connect all these dots and like is to
- 15:45what extent is this going to impact that
- 15:47company. You don't even have to do that
- 15:49work anymore as long as you have chat
- 15:52chat GBT, right? Like like all you need
- 15:55to do once you find something is just
- 15:58literally speak into chat GPT or Claude
- 16:01or Grock or your favorite LLM. Hey,
- 16:05I just saw this thing. Could you
- 16:07validate that what I'm seeing is real?
- 16:09How big it is? Are there any publicly
- 16:12traded companies that this would
- 16:14meaningfully impact positively or
- 16:16negative? Uh help me deeply research
- 16:21that. Uh and then help me deeply assess
- 16:25the degree to which institutional andor
- 16:28retail investors already know about this
- 16:30thing. then help me deeply assess
- 16:33whether there's something else happening
- 16:35at this company right now that could be
- 16:36more important than this because that
- 16:37would mean that the thing I found maybe
- 16:40isn't so important right to trade but
- 16:44like AI will do all the hard work for
- 16:47you in fact a lot of people are using AI
- 16:49to even surface the change like I'm
- 16:51going to be out of a job soon like with
- 16:53quickly AI is moving so this is almost
- 16:56like the last frontier to be like in in
- 17:00observation ational investor where
- 17:02there's tons of alpha that as a human
- 17:04you could still put the pieces together
- 17:06and like make ungodly amounts of money
- 17:10just from having your eyes open and
- 17:12trying.
- 17:12>> I wrote it down. Four-step framework. So
- 17:14if anyone's watching out there, number
- 17:16one is just observe. You know, you're
- 17:18looking at your Tik Tok feed, you're
- 17:20looking at Instagram, you're watching
- 17:21YouTube videos, you're living your life.
- 17:23>> Live your life.
- 17:23>> Live your life. And you're you're you're
- 17:25taking notice of things. And then you're
- 17:27starting, huh, that's interesting. this
- 17:29this this happened or this came up or I
- 17:30saw this then you're trying to relate
- 17:32that back to a publicly traded company
- 17:34and if you can then you need to
- 17:36understand how big of an opportunity is
- 17:39that for that company right is that
- 17:41information priced in again all of these
- 17:43things you can find on your favorite LLM
- 17:46you know are there other more important
- 17:48catalysts you know is there an earnings
- 17:50report or something big that's coming up
- 17:52where this information could surface and
- 17:54you know then you're trying to decide I
- 17:56guess timing and maybe your risk profile
- 17:57how much do I want to put into this.
- 17:59What's my risk profile? Am I buying the
- 18:00stock? Am I buying options potentially?
- 18:02But it seems like what you're saying is
- 18:05the everyday person can do, but they
- 18:07have to do a little homework.
- 18:09>> Got to do a little homework, right? Just
- 18:11a little bit. [laughter]
- 18:14Nothing in life comes completely free,
- 18:16>> right?
- 18:17>> But of all the ways to try to grind and
- 18:20make money,
- 18:23>> there's nothing easier, man. Like it's
- 18:25actually so insane to me that every
- 18:29human on earth is not doing this.
- 18:31>> You don't think you're special and your
- 18:33mind is built for this and the average
- 18:35person out there is like going to not be
- 18:38able to do it on the level that you're
- 18:39doing it or do you think anyone that
- 18:41puts in enough time, effort, research
- 18:43can do what you've done?
- 18:45>> Listen, I I've always been like a hyper
- 18:48resourceful
- 18:50grinder type, right? like like I'm out
- 18:53there doing things that other people are
- 18:55just not willing to do. I'm always
- 18:57looking for opportunity in life. And I
- 19:00do think that when I started doing this
- 19:02back in 2007
- 19:04that it would have been meaningfully
- 19:05tough for just the average person to do
- 19:07what I was doing because it it took a
- 19:09lot more work.
- 19:12But in 2026 in a digital world,
- 19:16basically
- 19:18every facet of change that's happening
- 19:21in the world is reflected on social
- 19:23media in real time and it's free out
- 19:26there for anyone to decipher. So what do
- 19:30we do as humans before we change the way
- 19:33that we live? Before we change the
- 19:35things that we buy or the things we wear
- 19:38or what we do or what we spend our money
- 19:40on, where we spend our time, we talk
- 19:44about it. We talk about it. Um, we might
- 19:48talk about it in person less and less
- 19:50these days, but certainly a meaningful
- 19:55part of humanity is having those
- 19:57conversations on Tik Tok, on X, on other
- 20:01social platforms. So all the information
- 20:05is out there. You just have to like be
- 20:07part of the conversation and read what
- 20:10people are talking about every day. So
- 20:12yeah, I mean it's it's it's never been
- 20:14easier. And then now we have AI to do
- 20:16all the hard work for you after that.
- 20:19And now we have like Robin Hood and like
- 20:22broker apps that anybody can use with
- 20:26free trading. I mean like all the pieces
- 20:28are there. They're all there. On top of
- 20:31that,
- 20:33back when I was doing this, it wasn't
- 20:35cool to be like a young kid investor.
- 20:38Like there were no no young guys that
- 20:40were like investing like that. That
- 20:42wasn't a thing. Now it's the coolest
- 20:44thing in the world. So like you don't
- 20:46even have the cultural like hurdle to
- 20:50deal with. Like this is what all these
- 20:53young guys talk about. Like constantly
- 20:54I'm getting hit up by 17year-old,
- 20:5719year-olds, college guys. They're all
- 20:59trading now. A lot of them are trading
- 21:01stupid stuff, right? They're trading
- 21:03meme stocks. Not that crypto is stupid,
- 21:06but they're tra I mean, they're trading
- 21:07coins. They're trading all this stuff,
- 21:09right? And I I'm like, God, guys, I
- 21:10mean, I get it. They're trying to make a
- 21:12100x their money very quickly. Uh,
- 21:15sometimes I think they feel that they
- 21:17understand crypto better than equities.
- 21:19I don't know why. I mean, like, they
- 21:21should all be trading equities, I think.
- 21:23But there's never been an easier time
- 21:26for this,
- 21:27>> guys. We've been so passionate about
- 21:29finding the biggest geniuses and this is
- 21:31just one of the many episodes. If you
- 21:32want to make sure you don't miss the
- 21:34next one, make sure to subscribe. All
- 21:35right, let's get back to the episode. To
- 21:37the people out there listening, let's
- 21:39just give some quick background on Chris
- 21:41because there might be some people out
- 21:42there like 20,000 into 80 million. This
- 21:44is all hype. This is nonsense. But if
- 21:46I'm not mistaken, there was a tool
- 21:47called Covester that tracked and audited
- 21:50your trades in, you know, in your
- 21:52brokerage account. And you were the
- 21:53number one trader in the world
- 21:55>> for a while. I was the number one trader
- 21:57on co-vester and I got some publicity
- 22:00for it which was cool. I got I got to go
- 22:03on like Fox Business and did some stuff
- 22:06and then I got offered a book deal and I
- 22:09wrote a book came out in 2010. Hardest
- 22:12thing I've ever done in my life preai.
- 22:14So I had no one to help me. Okay. It was
- 22:16just me [laughter]
- 22:17at me at Starbucks staring at the
- 22:20ceiling. No joke. some days, two days in
- 22:24a row without writing a single word and
- 22:27then I would like hammer down a bunch of
- 22:29awards for a bit. But like it took me a
- 22:32year to write that book, laughing at
- 22:33Wall Street. And it's a book about my
- 22:34life, about how I got started investing.
- 22:36It's very personal to me. And I, you
- 22:39know, at the time it was a great
- 22:41representation of what social arb
- 22:43investing or observational investing
- 22:44was. Um, since then there are other
- 22:48books that have kind of referenced what
- 22:49I do that I think are better because the
- 22:52times have changed. But no, there have
- 22:54been multiple audits. Um, in fact, that
- 22:57one book that uh came out, Unknown
- 22:59Market Wizards, Jack Schwagger, he's
- 23:00like an iconic uh maybe the most iconic
- 23:04writer uh detailing the best investors
- 23:08over the past 30 or 40 years, mostly
- 23:10hedge fun guys. when he did unknown
- 23:12market wizards, he picked I think like
- 23:14five of the best equity traders he was
- 23:17able to find and he spent years looking
- 23:19for them and I was very fortunate to be
- 23:20one of the five and he goes through a
- 23:23very deep audit process. So he gets in
- 23:25your brokerage statements and he, you
- 23:27know, he does a full audit or account
- 23:29review. And then on top of that, uh,
- 23:31Business Insider,
- 23:33I don't know, maybe it was like 2021,
- 23:362022
- 23:38took like five months to audit me before
- 23:40they would publish an article about me.
- 23:42So they also did an audit, then they
- 23:44hired a third party to do another audit
- 23:46cuz like they didn't believe that the
- 23:49returns are what they were. [laughter]
- 23:51And I get it. I listen, I I get it. Like
- 23:53I'm so skeptical. I I'm I was skeptical
- 23:56myself. Like back in 2010, I was only 3
- 23:59years in when I got my book deal. And
- 24:02there was part of me that was like maybe
- 24:04I'm just an edgec case scenario, like
- 24:07survivorship bias. Cuz if you have
- 24:09enough people trading, millions, tens,
- 24:11hundreds of millions, some people just
- 24:14by sheer chance are going to be
- 24:17outliers. The the difference is like I
- 24:20had this methodology that wasn't a black
- 24:22box. It was super intuitive. You explain
- 24:25like I just explained it to you. You
- 24:27find something early, you connect the
- 24:29dots, they come out an earnings call.
- 24:31They're like, "Hey, earnings are up
- 24:32because of that thing that you found.
- 24:34There's no freaking debate, okay?
- 24:36There's no debating that you found that
- 24:39thing, made the investment, then the
- 24:41company did good, said we did good
- 24:44because of the thing that I found or
- 24:46whatever.
- 24:48That's not chance, right? That's not
- 24:50like outlier bias. So, but there was a
- 24:53point where I didn't even believe
- 24:54myself. And like to this day, like I
- 24:57have a hard time believing other
- 24:59investors when they come out and say,
- 25:00"Here are my returns." Cuz dude, this
- 25:03space is so littered with shady people
- 25:07that are in it for themselves.
- 25:09They're trying to make money selling
- 25:11stuff to other people so they have to
- 25:13claim to be great. There's just been so
- 25:16much proven fraud out there in in this
- 25:18whole finance space that I understand
- 25:21why people are skeptical of me. But I
- 25:22don't I mean I don't sell anything. I
- 25:24don't have courses.
- 25:24>> That's the thing that's interesting
- 25:25interesting about you which is you don't
- 25:27have a course. You don't have a trading
- 25:29software. You don't have a mastermind
- 25:30group.
- 25:31>> No, I just I just did some master class
- 25:34for free only because they agreed to
- 25:36give it away for free, you know. So it's
- 25:38like I don't have I don't even take
- 25:39sponsorships ever. Like I went through
- 25:42all co with like all the big sponsorship
- 25:45deals that they were offering to finance
- 25:48YouTubers and like never took one of
- 25:50them.
- 25:51>> Why is that? Why didn't you take that?
- 25:52That could be more money you could be
- 25:53using to invest.
- 25:54>> I I just it just didn't feel right to me
- 25:58for a number of reasons. It just felt
- 26:00like it wasn't part of who something
- 26:02that I wanted to be part of because like
- 26:05I didn't see myself as like a
- 26:07professional content creator. I I was
- 26:10just an investor that wanted to share my
- 26:12stuff through content. So like it felt
- 26:15weird that I was going to then start
- 26:16monetizing my content in other ways. So
- 26:21and then also I I don't like to be
- 26:23handcuffed to anyone or anything. So as
- 26:26dumb as it is, I don't want someone
- 26:28telling me what I have to say. Like I
- 26:30don't I just want to say whatever the
- 26:31hell I want to say, right? I just I just
- 26:33don't it just felt dirty and it just
- 26:35didn't felt right for me. Um,
- 26:39but and then also listen like I make an
- 26:42insane amount of money indirectly off my
- 26:45community because now the dumb money
- 26:49community, you know, the dumb money live
- 26:51community is so good at observational
- 26:53investing.
- 26:54>> So you're getting ideas from your
- 26:56community.
- 26:56>> I'm getting I get more than half of my
- 26:58ideas from my community. No way. Now you
- 27:00got to realize this is a group effort.
- 27:03So they share stuff with me, I share
- 27:06stuff with them, I poke holes in what
- 27:09they find, they poke holes in what I
- 27:11find. I'm not like a magician, man. I'm
- 27:13just a normal guy that was the first
- 27:16person in the world to do this back in
- 27:172007. Believe me, there are people that
- 27:22are smarter than me, that are more
- 27:24resourceful than me, that have more time
- 27:26than me, that are hungrier than me cuz,
- 27:30you know, I've made it. So like that are
- 27:32out there doing what I do better than I
- 27:36do it today. And thank goodness they
- 27:40feel a sense of gratitude to me to want
- 27:43to connect with me and share the ideas
- 27:45with me. And like I love it and they
- 27:47know that almost all my profits go to my
- 27:49foundation anyway. So I have noble
- 27:52causes. So everybody wins when we all
- 27:55win. They win, my foundation wins.
- 27:59But for me, it's all it's always been
- 28:02about community because like I've been
- 28:05doing this since I was a kid, way before
- 28:07it was cool to be trading stocks and I
- 28:10never had a community. I never had
- 28:12people that I could relate to. Even when
- 28:14like, you know, like self the
- 28:17self-directed investor movement started
- 28:20in like the 2000s when Erade, you know,
- 28:24came up as a company and all of a sudden
- 28:26we had discount brokerages cuz it used
- 28:28to be like 3%. I don't think like any of
- 28:32these young kid investors understand
- 28:34this.
- 28:35When I was really young,
- 28:38it would cost 3%
- 28:41Yeah, I think like two to 3% of whatever
- 28:45you were investing to buy a stock and
- 28:47then another two to 3% to sell it. So
- 28:50you're talking about 5% round trip just
- 28:53to buy and sell a stock. And by the way,
- 28:55you're on a phone with a guy, right?
- 28:58It was nuts, man. Now you can trade
- 29:01stocks for free. But like even when I
- 29:04was like even when that movement got
- 29:06started, everyone was either a
- 29:08fundamental investor or a technical
- 29:10investor and mostly technical. So like
- 29:13anytime I go to investment conference,
- 29:16those aren't my people. I love them.
- 29:18They're nice guys, but like that's not
- 29:19I'm not a chartist, you know, like I
- 29:21don't want to look at that stuff. I
- 29:22don't want to talk about it. I hate
- 29:24technical investing. Like it's just not
- 29:27it's not my vibe at all and and I don't
- 29:29enjoy it. So,
- 29:32I always wanted to have like people that
- 29:34thought like me, that invested like me,
- 29:36that I could like have like some back
- 29:39and forth with. And it took me getting
- 29:41on, well, it took me writing a book,
- 29:44being on YouTube for seven years,
- 29:46whatever, however long it's been, and
- 29:49doing like dozens and dozens of these
- 29:52podcast to eventually start to build a
- 29:56community of people that are now doing
- 29:58this, too. And I I love every second of
- 30:01it, man. It is the the coolest thing in
- 30:03the world to have all these people that
- 30:05love to invest the way I do.
- 30:07>> You seem like such a humble guy. And
- 30:09when I think of a trader, someone that
- 30:12in their mind is like, look, I'm going
- 30:13to go beat the market, which I think as
- 30:15we know it's really hard in aggregate to
- 30:18consistently over decades beat the
- 30:20market. I think I would think of those
- 30:22people as, you know, having a big ego
- 30:25and just like they think of themselves
- 30:27even like like a god because they can
- 30:28beat the market which is almost
- 30:30impossible to do consistently. But
- 30:32you're you're just it seems like you're
- 30:34different.
- 30:35>> I just I know how I did it and so like I
- 30:39said the methodology is super intuitive
- 30:43and
- 30:44I know that like it's not because I'm
- 30:47that special. I just happened to be at
- 30:50the right time, the right place. I I
- 30:52figured it out. And by the way, listen,
- 30:55I'm a guy that has a thousand f failures
- 30:58in every aspect of my life. But I'm
- 31:00constantly trying. I'm constantly like I
- 31:02was that kid that had a different
- 31:04business idea every 15 minutes. Like
- 31:07horrible ideas left and right. It's
- 31:09horrible ideas. Um just a million
- 31:13failures, right? So I think the reason I
- 31:18I think about this quite often actually
- 31:20the there is a you know there's a
- 31:22reasonable chance that I could have just
- 31:25never have found this methodology
- 31:27and also been a failure in the couple
- 31:29other areas of my life where I hit it
- 31:31big and I'd just be a fail a straight
- 31:34failure all around. And I read a I read
- 31:37a I read a quote like a philosopher
- 31:40quote one time about how we give
- 31:44virtually zero admiration or respect to
- 31:49all the world's scientists, all the
- 31:52world's artist, musicians,
- 31:55all these people that basically live
- 31:57their entire life to like to like
- 32:01discover the anomaly, whether it's the
- 32:03big scientific discovery,
- 32:06or that amazing painting. And the
- 32:10reality is you have to go through that
- 32:12whole process to even have a chance of
- 32:14doing that. And if we just had if you
- 32:17just take like your top 20 scientists
- 32:19and they were the only ones that were
- 32:21ever around, we would have none of those
- 32:22discoveries. It took having hundreds of
- 32:26thousands, millions of scientists
- 32:29experimenting all the time to actually
- 32:32get out of the bottom of the funnel, the
- 32:34few big wins for humanity. And yet, we
- 32:37only admire those few people that had
- 32:39the wins. But everybody deserves that
- 32:42credit. You know what I'm saying? Like,
- 32:44they all deserve that credit. So when I
- 32:47think about investing,
- 32:49I mean, not everyone takes it as
- 32:52seriously as I take it, but there are a
- 32:54lot of other people besides me that are
- 32:56working just as hard or harder with new
- 32:59methodologies. They're looking for alpha
- 33:01in the market in different ways. I think
- 33:03I think we all deserve credit, man. I
- 33:06think I think every investor deserves
- 33:08that credit. Yeah. Right. I I hit it,
- 33:10which is awesome, but like now I just
- 33:12want to share it because like what
- 33:13really matters? Like I don't I don't
- 33:16care about the money really anymore.
- 33:18Like for me, I'm like and I don't even
- 33:20care about my methodology that much
- 33:22other than the fact that observational
- 33:24investing is relatable. So I think it
- 33:26will get people to invest and to believe
- 33:29that they can do something special
- 33:30because you don't need any special skill
- 33:32set. But the truth is, all I care about
- 33:36is getting everybody to open a brokerage
- 33:39account and just start investing.
- 33:41Because you could be a good investor, a
- 33:44bad investor, a great investor, if you
- 33:47just become an investor, you've already
- 33:50won. And even if you like want to pursue
- 33:54some other style of investing that's not
- 33:58optimal or if you pursue mine but don't
- 34:00do great at it, the fact that you're
- 34:03into it is going to make you throw more
- 34:07money into the investing side of your
- 34:10life. And the more money you have just
- 34:12in investments period, the more you win.
- 34:16Doesn't matter if you do a little worse
- 34:17than the S&P, a little better than the
- 34:19S&P. I mean, it's better if you do
- 34:21better, right? But you just got to get
- 34:23in the game. If you This is a game that
- 34:26unless you're a complete degenerate
- 34:30imbecile, you can't lose. Like, you just
- 34:33can't lose at this game unless you are
- 34:37at the very fringe of the generacy,
- 34:40which there are some people there.
- 34:42[laughter]
- 34:43Like, but like, I hate to say it, those
- 34:45people have real meaningful issues and
- 34:47problems, and I feel for them. Uh, but
- 34:50they're going to lose it no matter what.
- 34:52If they're not losing here, they're lo
- 34:54they're losing at the casino, right? Or
- 34:56they're losing someplace else.
- 34:58>> Yeah.
- 34:59>> Somebody told me, "You once made
- 35:01millions because of two words on Google.
- 35:04Roof repair."
- 35:05>> Yeah. I don't know if it was millions.
- 35:07It was definitely [laughter]
- 35:09I think it was definitely I think
- 35:11hundreds of thousands, which was an
- 35:13insane amount of money to me at the
- 35:14time. I do love that one and I talk
- 35:18about it quite a bit because it's it's
- 35:23people are like, "Okay, is this all
- 35:24about catching like the next big hot
- 35:27product?" Sometimes it is. Uh or the big
- 35:31trend or the fashion trend uh or the
- 35:33shoe trend. I've traded every shoe trend
- 35:35that's ever happened in the last 20
- 35:37years. Everyone. And I've nailed almost
- 35:39every one of them. But the roof repair
- 35:42one I love because it was simply
- 35:47detecting
- 35:49how big of a hail season we were having
- 35:51because the bigger the hail season the
- 35:54more beneficial for this company Beacon
- 35:56Roofing which was the number one roofing
- 35:58supplier in the world basically that was
- 36:01publicly traded. So if there's an
- 36:04enormous amount of hail storms that hit
- 36:06houses then Beacon roofing was going to
- 36:09knock it out of the park. All right. So,
- 36:11now that we know that, because if you go
- 36:13through the history of Beacon Roofing,
- 36:15you can see that's a big conversation
- 36:17topic in their earnings reports. By the
- 36:20way, this is this is an important part
- 36:22of the process. You want to try to
- 36:25identify what is it that moves the
- 36:27needle for that company. And if you go
- 36:29and read like the last three to four
- 36:32earnings transcripts, which are free and
- 36:34they're out there on the internet for
- 36:36anyone to read, you just simply read
- 36:38them and it becomes very obvious what's
- 36:41important like like what are people
- 36:43worried about or what are they excited
- 36:44about or if they sell more of these, the
- 36:47company's going to be doing really well.
- 36:50If they sell less of this thing, it's
- 36:51not going to do well. Well, Beacon
- 36:53Roofing was all about storm season
- 36:57[laughter] every year.
- 36:58So hedge funds and investment banks,
- 37:02they would wait for this insurance
- 37:04report that comes out, I don't know,
- 37:06like weeks and weeks after the storm
- 37:08season, and it would tell you how much
- 37:10hail damage was done or estimated to be
- 37:13done. And then based on that insurance
- 37:16report, Beacon Roofing would move up or
- 37:18down, and you had to probably pay insane
- 37:20amounts of money just to buy that
- 37:21report. No regular investor got access
- 37:24to that report. We get screwed, right?
- 37:26So, the hedge funds spend the money to
- 37:28get the report. They're trading Beacon
- 37:30Roofing, and we have no clue what the
- 37:32hell is going on with hail storms. I was
- 37:34like, "How can I beat them? How can I
- 37:36How can I beat them?" All right.
- 37:39What do people do when a hail stom hits
- 37:44their roof and damages it? They get on
- 37:47the internet, they get on Google, and
- 37:49they type roof repair. All right? in
- 37:53next to real time they type roof repair.
- 37:56Why is this important? Because even if
- 37:59you are watching the weather and you're
- 38:01like, "Wow, there's monster hail storms
- 38:02in Texas, Houston, or wherever." Well,
- 38:06where? Like, did it hit the populated
- 38:08neighborhood or was it like 5 miles away
- 38:10in the field? Like you need to know that
- 38:13because even if there's a huge hail
- 38:15storm, you really can't assess just the
- 38:18broadness of the damage to homes unless
- 38:22you know geographically exactly where
- 38:24that hail hit. So the the the
- 38:29like guaranteed way to know that is to
- 38:33simply go on Google Trends, which is a
- 38:37tool that anyone in the world can go on,
- 38:39and simply look at a five-year history
- 38:43of the word roof repair. And you could
- 38:45see every spring it jumps up for obvious
- 38:48reasons. That's when we have hail
- 38:49storms, right? And this one year it
- 38:53jumped up like three times higher than
- 38:56the prior five years. So I had was
- 38:59already tracking the hail storms but
- 39:00like I do every spring. But I was like,
- 39:03"Okay, this is going to be a killer year
- 39:05for Beacon Roofing." And it was. And I I
- 39:07put on a really big lever bet, options
- 39:09bet, because I had high conviction. I've
- 39:12had about 75 to 80ish
- 39:16high conviction trades over the course
- 39:19of the last 18 yearsish.
- 39:23And when I have high conviction around a
- 39:26thesis, I generally don't just invest in
- 39:29the stock, but I lever into the
- 39:31investment often using options. So that
- 39:35if the stock goes up 30%,
- 39:38maybe I can make 300% of my money or 400
- 39:42or even 500% of my money. And that's the
- 39:47only way to really knock it out of the
- 39:49park. That's the only way that you're
- 39:51going to generate any type of wildly
- 39:54outsized returns like I have over a long
- 39:57period of time is when you actually come
- 40:00across something that you believe in
- 40:04meaningfully, you have to lever into
- 40:06that trade.
- 40:07>> And let's quickly explain options
- 40:08because there could be people out there
- 40:10listening that don't understand buying
- 40:12the stock regularly versus using
- 40:14options. So, if I'm not mistaken, you're
- 40:16using call options that expire at a
- 40:19certain date, and you're betting and
- 40:20saying that this stock is going to
- 40:24increase over a certain price by a
- 40:26certain date. And if it does, and if it
- 40:28blows it out of the water and it, you
- 40:30know, rises much more than that, you're
- 40:32going to earn an outsized return. Not
- 40:34just, like you said, if it goes up 30%,
- 40:36you could make 300% potentially, but if
- 40:39it doesn't, you hypothetically could
- 40:41lose what? All of your money. Let's
- 40:43explain options real quick to the people
- 40:45who don't understand.
- 40:45>> Options are options are actually pretty
- 40:48simple the way that I use them. I only
- 40:51use option to get leverage on my money.
- 40:55And leverage is like my favorite topic
- 40:57to talk about. But um basically when you
- 41:00buy an option, what you're doing is
- 41:03rather than spending $100 to buy stock,
- 41:08you're giving someone $100 for the
- 41:12option to buy 10 times that amount of
- 41:16stock from them.
- 41:19anytime you want within the next few
- 41:22days to few weeks to few months. There's
- 41:24an expiration date on the contract at a
- 41:27predetermined price. And let's just
- 41:29assume the predetermined price is
- 41:32whatever the price is of the stock that
- 41:33day. So you're betting on the fact that
- 41:36over the course of that time period, the
- 41:38stock is going to go up from that
- 41:40predetermined price. And if it does, you
- 41:44get to basically buy 10 times more stock
- 41:47than you would have if you would have
- 41:49just purchased the stock. And the wild
- 41:52thing about options is the option value
- 41:55fluctuates
- 41:57on a minute-by-minute basis based on
- 42:00what it would be worth if you did buy
- 42:02all that stock and then sold it at the
- 42:03current price. So you never have to come
- 42:05up with the money to go out and buy 10
- 42:07times more stock because I I if it if
- 42:10the stock goes up maybe 10 or 20% that
- 42:13option might go up 100 or 200%. So you
- 42:16could double your money
- 42:19as opposed to making 20% on your money,
- 42:22right? If you're right.
- 42:23>> And if you're wrong, what happens? Do
- 42:24you lose just that $100 or you could
- 42:26lose more than that? If if you're wrong,
- 42:29let's say the stock goes down 5%.
- 42:33Instead of losing 5% of your money, you
- 42:37lose all of your money. So that $100
- 42:39doesn't go down to 95, it goes down to
- 42:41zero. So you have leverage on both
- 42:44sides. But what's cool about options as
- 42:47opposed to like borrowing on margin
- 42:51and stuff like that is
- 42:53you know what your maximum pain is going
- 42:56to be. like you know that if you spend
- 42:58$100 on an option, your worst case
- 42:59scenario is you lose the $100 and your
- 43:02best case scenario is you might turn it
- 43:04into a,000 or $2,000. So you could lose
- 43:07it all, but you could also five to 20x
- 43:09your money if you're right. And it's a
- 43:12really exciting game. It's a dangerous
- 43:15game for people that are irresponsible
- 43:18or trying to make fast money too quickly
- 43:20um because they become addicted to it.
- 43:23And like right now the hot thing in
- 43:26sports wagering is not just betting your
- 43:28money on a game, it's parlays. All the
- 43:32kids, like I'm around my, you know, I
- 43:34got a 16-year-old son and he's got a
- 43:38dozen 16-year-old guy friends and I'm
- 43:42there in the kitchen listening to them
- 43:44and I'm like, look, they all lost all
- 43:46their money again this week. I'm like,
- 43:48how do you continue to lose all of your
- 43:50money every week? like you should be
- 43:52winning roughly half the time. And I
- 43:55realized that no, they're all in like
- 43:58six six game parlays, seven game parlays
- 44:03because they want to be able to because
- 44:04they they have basically no money,
- 44:06right? So they want to be able to bet
- 44:08$10 to win 200 or 300. And the only way
- 44:12they can do that is if they pick the
- 44:14winner of all six of these games, which
- 44:16is almost impossible to do. Well, it's
- 44:18it's the same thing with options.
- 44:21So these younger investors, they get
- 44:23involved with options and that's all
- 44:25they do and then they're buying options
- 44:28where the strike price, which is the
- 44:30price that you get to purchase the stock
- 44:32for, is like really far away from where
- 44:34the stock is trading right now. Which
- 44:36means the stock has to go up like a lot
- 44:39for you not to lose all of your money.
- 44:42But if it does, you can make like 40
- 44:45times your money or 50 times your money
- 44:47or 100 times your money. Right? By the
- 44:49way, I did that exact thing when I was
- 44:52like 20, 21, 22 trading,
- 44:56it's because you don't have a lot of
- 44:57money and you want to make a lot of
- 44:59money. But truthfully, if you do that,
- 45:02you're going to lose almost every time.
- 45:04And people get so pissed off at me cuz I
- 45:07talk about leverage and I talk about
- 45:08options and like, Chris, you shouldn't
- 45:10even talk about that stuff because, you
- 45:11know, young kids look up to you and
- 45:14they're going to do it. I'm like,
- 45:15they're going to do it. They're gonna
- 45:17lose their money while they don't have
- 45:18any money and then they're going to grow
- 45:20up and you know their frontal lobe is
- 45:22gonna fully mature and all that stuff
- 45:26and they're going to remember how dumb
- 45:29they were and hopefully they're not
- 45:31going to continue to make those mistakes
- 45:33when they're like 28 or 30 or 40 and
- 45:36they have a family and a mortgage and
- 45:39they're trying to live a real life. You
- 45:40got to go through it, right? You got to
- 45:42go through it. And like you leverage is
- 45:46everything in life. It's everything,
- 45:49man. It's everything. And I don't want
- 45:52people to be scared of it. Like
- 45:56I man
- 45:59I think [sighs]
- 46:05I think I think that the biggest
- 46:07difference between like wealthy and just
- 46:11regular people.
- 46:14I it's not about risking more of your
- 46:16money, but it's about understanding
- 46:22what parts of your money are responsible
- 46:24to take risk with. Okay? Because every
- 46:28wealthy person has buckets of money that
- 46:32are oriented towards taking risk.
- 46:34Whether they're doing that themsel or
- 46:37whether a money manager is doing that
- 46:39for them,
- 46:41generally the big difference is
- 46:44build people that build wealth, they
- 46:46build it through leverage. And it's not
- 46:49like they're taking all their money and
- 46:50putting it at risk, but they understand
- 46:54that with increasing amounts of risk
- 46:57becomes increasing amounts, you know,
- 47:00increasing reward and it means more
- 47:04volatility, of course, right? Uh but if
- 47:08you're not taking those risk in life, uh
- 47:11you're never going to hit it out of the
- 47:13park. You know, there's nothing wrong
- 47:15with like getting rich slowly over, you
- 47:19know, the entirety of your life, but you
- 47:23don't need to wait, you know, 50 years.
- 47:25But even if you're getting rich slowly,
- 47:27okay, think about this.
- 47:30Average market returns are are 10%. S&P,
- 47:34right?
- 47:36the average returns simulated over the
- 47:39last hundred years in a triple lever S&P
- 47:44ETF, which I know people are scared of,
- 47:47but this isn't a triple leveraged like
- 47:50single stock ETF. This is across the
- 47:52entire S&P.
- 47:55It does have periods of high volatility
- 47:58and major drawdowns where you lose 50%
- 48:00of your money, 70%, 80%, 90% of your
- 48:03money. That sounds crazy, but over the
- 48:07long term, that triple leverage ETF
- 48:11generates 15%
- 48:13returns as opposed to 10% returns. So,
- 48:17you understand the difference. If you're
- 48:20investing $1 at age 18, by the time you
- 48:24turn 60, that $1
- 48:28has been multiplied like 50x. So, it's
- 48:31worth $50. But if you have it levered,
- 48:35it's $350. So you're making seven times
- 48:39the amount of money. 7x. Okay, think
- 48:43about the difference there at 7x.
- 48:45Because now if you're talking about
- 48:48$100,000, that's a difference between
- 48:50$700,000 and 3.5 million, which is a
- 48:54game-changing amount of money. So is
- 48:58there some tail risk in that higher risk
- 49:01bucket? Of course, there's some tail
- 49:03risk. There's some theoretical tail risk
- 49:06that at any moment in time, if you need
- 49:07to access that money, if it's bad times
- 49:10and you hit it after a big draw down,
- 49:13you could have gotten hit 90%. That's a
- 49:16theoretical risk, but you should have a
- 49:19bucket of money. or I I say you like I
- 49:22say this to myself like
- 49:26it's insane to me not to have a bucket
- 49:29of high-risisk capital that you're going
- 49:32to generate returns that are seven times
- 49:34higher than if you just put them in the
- 49:37market and most people don't even have
- 49:38money in the market. Right? So, like
- 49:42we're talking about wild differences in
- 49:46how quickly you become rich. And the the
- 49:48the biggest difference is once you
- 49:52realize that that bucket, you have like
- 49:55in my opinion at least what my research
- 49:58that I've done has like a 99% chance of
- 50:01generating that 7x the 35x over that
- 50:04period of time, which means a 7x higher
- 50:06return.
- 50:08All of a sudden, you're finding money
- 50:10all over your life. Trade-offs.
- 50:12Everywhere you look, you're finding
- 50:13trade-offs. So, you're putting money in
- 50:15that high-risk account that is not
- 50:19coming from your kids college education
- 50:21fund. It's not coming from your
- 50:23retirement account. It's coming because
- 50:25you made a trade-off in life and you're
- 50:27like, I want to have
- 50:30a big baller account where I can get
- 50:33rich quickly and I could take risk with
- 50:36leverage, where I can invest on margin,
- 50:38where I can invest options,
- 50:41where I can put it in a triple leverage
- 50:44ETF, where I can do things that are
- 50:47going to generate returns that are
- 50:48meaningfully higher than market returns,
- 50:51not because I'm the world's best stock
- 50:53picker, But just because I'm willing to
- 50:56invest with leverage because it's money
- 50:59that I don't care about
- 51:02because every wealthy person has money
- 51:04they don't care about. So why don't you
- 51:07come up with money you don't care about?
- 51:10Well, you're only going to do that if
- 51:11you believe that money can grow into
- 51:13something insanely great and like like
- 51:17get you out of that terrible place where
- 51:20you're relying on income for the rest of
- 51:22your life.
- 51:24And anybody could do this. Like actually
- 51:26anybody could do this.
- 51:29So I think it I think it's really
- 51:31important. And when you do it, all of a
- 51:33sudden you're clipping coupons. You're
- 51:36making your own coffee at home. You
- 51:39know, like
- 51:41believe me, every second of every day
- 51:44you're thinking, "How can I find money
- 51:46in my life to put in that bucket?"
- 51:49Because you know it's your only way out.
- 51:51it's actually your only way out. Um,
- 51:56and it's just like my favorite thing to
- 51:57talk about because it's something
- 51:58anybody can do and nobody thinks they
- 52:00can do it because everyone's I can't
- 52:02take that risk. I sh should be trading
- 52:04on margin. I can't do options. That's
- 52:06crazy. It's only crazy if you do it with
- 52:08your normal money. It's not crazy if you
- 52:12do it with the money that you waste at
- 52:13the casino once a year. It's not crazy
- 52:16if you do it with the money that you're
- 52:18using to buy $18 drinks at the bar,
- 52:21right? Like maybe have a extra couple of
- 52:25drinks at home and then when you get to
- 52:26the bar just milk a really cheap drink
- 52:29and be cool with the cheap vodka, right?
- 52:31Cuz it doesn't make a difference anyway.
- 52:32It's all the same. So like
- 52:36this is like the biggest game changer
- 52:39for for just every human and it's an
- 52:43unlock that no one believes is there and
- 52:45it pisses me off. And so like I've made
- 52:48a decision I'm going to start talking
- 52:50about it like even though I get crap for
- 52:51it cuz people are like they're going to
- 52:53misinterpret this. People are going to
- 52:55start investing on leverage and all this
- 52:57stuff. They're going to lose all their
- 52:58money. Well I didn't say to do that. I
- 53:00said to create an account, an account
- 53:01where it doesn't matter if that really
- 53:03bad scenario hits at the wrong time and
- 53:07you're in a major draw down and you're
- 53:08like down 98%.
- 53:11You got to live with that.
- 53:13Yeah, I agree. Yeah. I mean, everyone
- 53:15should be investing if they're not. If
- 53:18they already are, then using a smaller
- 53:22portion of your total portfolio and
- 53:26having some level of leverage there or
- 53:28some maybe you're highly concentrated
- 53:30there and some smaller portion of your
- 53:32portfolio seems like it could be a
- 53:34value. It's obviously worked for you. I
- 53:35>> I mean, imagine if your house
- 53:39was your portfolio, right? You don't
- 53:42protect your house from burning down by
- 53:46never using your stove. Do you you you
- 53:49make sure that your house the structure
- 53:52is safe and fireproof
- 53:54and then you figure out where you can
- 53:56safely light fires like on your stove or
- 53:59in the fireplace.
- 54:00>> It's a good analogy.
- 54:00>> Does that make sense?
- 54:01>> Yeah.
- 54:02>> Like like are you just going to not use
- 54:04fire in your home because it's going to
- 54:07burn down your house? No. There's a
- 54:09there's a correct way to use fire.
- 54:11There's a correct way to use leverage.
- 54:13It's the same thing.
- 54:18>> And let's go back to some of the the
- 54:22observations that you make, right? Are
- 54:24you still scrolling Tik Tok to find
- 54:27information?
- 54:28>> Yeah, I'm deep on Tik Tok. I'm just It's
- 54:30my life.
- 54:31>> Okay. And is it am I is it right that I
- 54:35have notes here that you at sometimes
- 54:38spend four hours a night you're reading
- 54:39through Tik Tok comments, Reddit
- 54:41threads, Facebook groups for to to
- 54:43observe or is that still not h is that
- 54:45not happening anymore?
- 54:46>> That was happening for a really long
- 54:48time. Uh it's not happening anymore
- 54:50because I made a conscious decision this
- 54:53last year
- 54:55to do other things outside of investing
- 54:59in my life. So, you know, I'm I'm trying
- 55:02to explore other things outside of
- 55:05investing, which means I don't have 4
- 55:07hours a night anymore, but
- 55:10I'm still spending an hour or two a day
- 55:12doing it. So, little little less than
- 55:14half of what I used to spend, and it's
- 55:18doing exactly that. The magic is in the
- 55:20comments. The gold is in the comments.
- 55:22The comments is where all the alpha is.
- 55:25>> What are you seeing in those comments?
- 55:26That
- 55:27>> everything. I'm seeing everything that's
- 55:29happening in the world unfold in real
- 55:31time. So,
- 55:33if there is a restaurant chain that has
- 55:39a new menu item, like when Chili's had
- 55:43the cheese pull or even they had um
- 55:47their buffalo cheese sticks, like I and
- 55:50they had their they had a few different
- 55:52they had a lot of good stuff happening
- 55:54all at the same time and and it kind of
- 55:55like went viral.
- 55:58How are you going to find out about that
- 55:59first on Tik Tok, right? And not because
- 56:03people were doing videos about it, but
- 56:06because you're going to watch the videos
- 56:08that people were doing and those videos
- 56:11had thousands of comments. And what were
- 56:13the comments? The comments are like,
- 56:15"Oh, dude, I we had it last night. It
- 56:17was awesome." Or, "We're actually going
- 56:18to go this weekend. Um, yeah, the pe the
- 56:21cheese pole is legit." So, it's like
- 56:24these sound like really stupid things,
- 56:27but this is where life is now. Love it
- 56:30or hate it, we all like to complain that
- 56:33every person is glued to their phone
- 56:3524/7 and we are. Um, this is where we're
- 56:39living our life and this is where we're
- 56:42expressing ourselves. And Tik Tok, you
- 56:45know, going back to when it was founded,
- 56:48it's always been the quirky place where
- 56:51people were more open to tell the truth.
- 56:56Uh people have always been more raw on
- 57:00Tik Tok as opposed to the polished
- 57:03uh presentation of themselves that they
- 57:05put on Instagram. And that's why the
- 57:08gold has always been in the on the Tik
- 57:10Tok comments.
- 57:12But everything is there. I mean, and by
- 57:14the way, I say everything. You're not
- 57:16going to find out that much about AI on
- 57:19Tik Tok, right? Like, I'm not, you know,
- 57:23when I do my research on the degree to
- 57:25which developers
- 57:28are meaningfully implementing AI at
- 57:31their incumbent software company, right?
- 57:34I'm not looking in the Tik Tok comments,
- 57:36right? I'm I'm looking in developer
- 57:38forums. I'm looking at Reddit. I'm
- 57:40looking on X. Uh, so you have to know
- 57:45where to look, but there's still a
- 57:48tremendous amount of alpha on Tik Tok,
- 57:50especially when it comes to consumer
- 57:52stuff. What people are buying, what
- 57:54they're doing, what their time, where
- 57:55they're vacationing, what they're
- 57:57eating, health, right? Like this
- 58:00massive, massive movement towards
- 58:03health. the last few years
- 58:06has been such a gamecher for so many
- 58:12companies
- 58:13and it's like
- 58:16it's just been just been a needle mover,
- 58:18right? And and Tik Tok is where that
- 58:20took place. It's all the health
- 58:22influencers on Tik Tok. So
- 58:25that's where that's where I hang out.
- 58:28Did you make $30 million during COVID?
- 58:31>> I made more than 30 million actually, a
- 58:34little more. And then I lost not most of
- 58:38it, but a good chunk of it on the back
- 58:40end of it when I had a moment of
- 58:42insanity and I got like pulled into the
- 58:45world of NFTTS.
- 58:46Not because I lost money on NFTTS. Um,
- 58:51ironically, I I think I actually made
- 58:53money on my whole NFT journey, but I was
- 58:56distracted. So, I missed where I should
- 59:00have been
- 59:03exiting a lot of those positions and
- 59:05shorting the market on the back end. I
- 59:08wasn't. I was just obsessed with NFT
- 59:10projects. It was like I I I had reverted
- 59:13back into being like a 13-year-old kid
- 59:15with a bunch of really interesting new
- 59:18friends that I had made. uh through, you
- 59:22know, text text groups uh that to this
- 59:26day are now some of my closest friends.
- 59:28So, it was all worth it. I'd do it all
- 59:30again. I would do it all again just to
- 59:32meet all these guys. But um I did make
- 59:3530 million because I be I I was I was
- 59:40basically
- 59:42uh you know in using Google Translate
- 59:46to read reports coming out of uh China
- 59:52from doctors and from medical experts
- 59:56about how severe COVID was. So, I was
- 59:59very early on COVID and it was obvious
- 1:00:03to me with 100% certainty that it was
- 1:00:07going to become a pandemic. So, we had
- 1:00:10never had a pandemic in my lifetime. And
- 1:00:12it wasn't very difficult to put the
- 1:00:15pieces together of what would happen if
- 1:00:17we had a pandemic. The stock market's
- 1:00:19going to crash, right? Like, it's just
- 1:00:21not again, it's I'm not that smart. Like
- 1:00:24it's just not there's nothing that I do
- 1:00:26that's like dude how did you figure that
- 1:00:28out? I don't know man. There's like a
- 1:00:31pandemic coming out of China and it's
- 1:00:34about to hit the entire world. So I'm
- 1:00:38going to short airlines and casino
- 1:00:41stocks because no one's going to sit at
- 1:00:43a casino table and no one's going to get
- 1:00:45on an airplane.
- 1:00:46>> But well, let's go back. What what was
- 1:00:48the catalyst? What did you observe?
- 1:00:50Because when I found out about COVID
- 1:00:52happening, I probably was looking
- 1:00:53watching CNBC and the market crash. It
- 1:00:55was probably uh what March something
- 1:00:5815th 20th of 2020. But you saw something
- 1:01:01prior. What did you see?
- 1:01:02>> So So we all
- 1:01:04knew about COVID as a news story that
- 1:01:08was kind of like bubbling up from China.
- 1:01:12I had the curiosity
- 1:01:15once I like everything that I see when I
- 1:01:18hear about something when I see
- 1:01:19something I have that natural curiosity
- 1:01:22to say okay is this real or not is this
- 1:01:26a big deal or not. So I go on that
- 1:01:30journey every time I hear about
- 1:01:32something. So that was one of a thousand
- 1:01:34things I heard about that year and I
- 1:01:36started researching it. One of the
- 1:01:39things I was acutely aware of was, and
- 1:01:42this is from one of my favorite bl
- 1:01:44books, uh, Nim Taleb's Black Swan talks
- 1:01:49a lot about the psychology of humans. We
- 1:01:52will not accept anomalies. We just don't
- 1:01:55accept them to be real until they're
- 1:01:56right in front of our face and they're
- 1:01:57happening. So, if there's no precedent
- 1:02:00for something, if there's no historical
- 1:02:03reference point for something,
- 1:02:06we just don't believe it. if it's
- 1:02:08happening for the first time. Okay? So
- 1:02:10like we had never had a pandemic in our
- 1:02:12life. We had heard about the bird flu,
- 1:02:14this and that. It never materializes. So
- 1:02:16we just always assume that it's the same
- 1:02:19thing. However, that's not how the world
- 1:02:22works.
- 1:02:24Eventually the thing happens. Look at
- 1:02:26history. Eventually all the things
- 1:02:30happen. They just don't happen very
- 1:02:32often. You're going to have the crazy
- 1:02:34flood. You're going to have, and this is
- 1:02:37this is dark, right? But like
- 1:02:40the comet's eventually gonna hit Earth,
- 1:02:43okay? Like that's going to happen. Uh
- 1:02:46eventually there will be the big bad
- 1:02:48virus. We can't figure out. There will
- 1:02:50be the the war that gets out of control.
- 1:02:53Like all the stuff will eventually
- 1:02:56happen.
- 1:02:58So, I just went a few levels deeper and
- 1:03:01did the hard work to assess that CO was
- 1:03:04real when no one else was willing to do
- 1:03:06that because they're lazy. That that's
- 1:03:08the answer to the question. Most
- 1:03:10investors are lazy. They're just lazy.
- 1:03:12They're still lazy to this day. I think
- 1:03:14almost every investor is lazy. So, I'm a
- 1:03:18little less lazy than other investors.
- 1:03:20So, I did the work. Once I realized it
- 1:03:23was real, I started shorting airline
- 1:03:25stocks and casino stocks. I was too
- 1:03:27early. I was losing insane amounts of
- 1:03:29money every week. So, there were weekly
- 1:03:31options, like 10ish% of my portfolio
- 1:03:33every week for a few weeks,
- 1:03:36freaking out. Uh eventually,
- 1:03:40uh there was a moment when the market
- 1:03:42cracked, but it was like I think it went
- 1:03:45down like 2%. I was so upset. I was I
- 1:03:47mean I wasn't upset I want the market to
- 1:03:50like by the way I didn't want the
- 1:03:52pandemic to happen but I knew there was
- 1:03:54nothing that I was going to do in my
- 1:03:56living room to stop this pandemic from
- 1:03:58happening.
- 1:04:00I wanted to make a lot of money off of
- 1:04:02it because someone was going to make
- 1:04:03money off it trading it if some it's not
- 1:04:06going to be a hedge fund. It's going to
- 1:04:07be me. Okay. Like I'd ra better me than
- 1:04:10a hedge fund. So I this is what I do.
- 1:04:14It's my life. So, I was going to make
- 1:04:17money off when the market eventually got
- 1:04:21hit. It was just taking way too long
- 1:04:24again because investors are lazy and it
- 1:04:27took them too long to realize what was
- 1:04:28happening. Well, eventually they
- 1:04:29realized it. the market hit and I had
- 1:04:32the biggest, you know, biggest week of
- 1:04:35my trading career and
- 1:04:39I already had a plan in place
- 1:04:42to go long the basket of stocks that I
- 1:04:45knew were going to benefit from the
- 1:04:47pandemic that I also knew were going to
- 1:04:51crash first because again, investors are
- 1:04:54lazy and they weren't going to do the
- 1:04:57work to re to realize that these stocks
- 1:05:00should not be going down, they should be
- 1:05:02going up. But you have to know that,
- 1:05:04right? So, all the work from home stuff,
- 1:05:06right? You know, Huelet Packard that
- 1:05:09makes printers cuz I knew people would
- 1:05:11be doing school from home. Bicycles cuz
- 1:05:14that's pretty much the only activity you
- 1:05:16can do. RVs because you can't go to a
- 1:05:18hotel. You got to go camping in an RV.
- 1:05:21Boats. Uh four-wheelers.
- 1:05:25Uh, I mean, Amazon because now you're
- 1:05:28ordering all your stuff to your house.
- 1:05:30Uh, Shopify because all the digital
- 1:05:33companies were going to boom. Pelaton
- 1:05:34because you can't go to the gym anymore.
- 1:05:36You got to work out in your house. So, I
- 1:05:38had a massive basket of these companies.
- 1:05:40I kept adding to it. And I just watched
- 1:05:43this basket of companies get destroyed
- 1:05:45when the stock market went down. I was
- 1:05:47like, "Oh, this is going to be the
- 1:05:48trade." Like the short trade on the
- 1:05:51market was big,
- 1:05:53but I knew this was going to be way
- 1:05:54bigger. And I I knew I would never be
- 1:05:58able to time the market bottom. I knew I
- 1:06:00would be late. And I was late. I was
- 1:06:03exactly two days late. So two days after
- 1:06:06the market bottomed and we started
- 1:06:08printing all that money and the Fed got
- 1:06:11involved and the market started to
- 1:06:13rebound, I was like, "Okay, this is it."
- 1:06:17And I invested in all those companies
- 1:06:19and that's that's when I made the real
- 1:06:21money, right? Because those companies
- 1:06:22went up
- 1:06:253x, 5x, 7x, Schwin B. There's a small
- 1:06:28Canadian company that made like car
- 1:06:31seats and Schwin bicycles. That's all
- 1:06:33they did. They owned Schwin Bicycle, the
- 1:06:35company, and a car seat company. No one
- 1:06:38knew what this company was. Like it was
- 1:06:39a nothing company. they went up like I
- 1:06:41don't know 10x or something like that
- 1:06:43over the so these aren't investing in
- 1:06:46options just the stock went up like 10x
- 1:06:49[laughter] so
- 1:06:51it was just like this I this crazy
- 1:06:55moment in time for me because I always
- 1:06:57say that like as as an observational
- 1:06:59investor or social arb investor
- 1:07:02that that the biggest opportunities are
- 1:07:05moments of big change in the world like
- 1:07:08the more change the bigger the
- 1:07:10opportunity
- 1:07:11And the quicker that that change is
- 1:07:13happening, the bigger the opportunity
- 1:07:15because companies are either getting
- 1:07:18destroyed or flourishing quickly because
- 1:07:21there's just like all of a sudden people
- 1:07:24want that product that didn't want it
- 1:07:25yesterday, right? All of a sudden this
- 1:07:28company is in the right place, right
- 1:07:30time or bad place, wrong time, right?
- 1:07:34And so you need the change to happen for
- 1:07:37the opportunity to open up. Well, we had
- 1:07:40never had a change as big or as fast
- 1:07:45in my lifetime as what co brought to
- 1:07:49every company in the world. So, that was
- 1:07:52the moment I had always waited for to
- 1:07:54trade.
- 1:07:55And the only time since then, I didn't
- 1:07:58think we'd ever get a moment like that
- 1:07:59again until AI. And when I got on chat
- 1:08:04GPT for the first time with everybody
- 1:08:06else, I I literally just like I didn't
- 1:08:11talk to anyone for a week. I went into
- 1:08:13like a meditative state cuz I was like,
- 1:08:16I got to I spent a lot of time on it. I
- 1:08:18was like, dude, is this real? Like this
- 1:08:19is crazy.
- 1:08:21And I was like, if this is real and if
- 1:08:24this continues along the trajectory that
- 1:08:27I think is possible,
- 1:08:30this will become the biggest thing to
- 1:08:33ever happen in my lifetime, which will
- 1:08:35mean that this will become the biggest
- 1:08:37opportunity to invest as an
- 1:08:39observational investor and make insane
- 1:08:42amounts of money. And I went all in on
- 1:08:44the AI trade. And for anyone that's been
- 1:08:47following me the last, I don't know,
- 1:08:49three and a half years, you know that
- 1:08:52where I used to talk about the hottest
- 1:08:54shoe trend of the day to trade Crocs or
- 1:08:57Uggs or whatever, I've been kind of
- 1:08:59laser focused, distracted, and consumed
- 1:09:02by the AI trade. And it's been one of
- 1:09:05the most lucrative trades of my life.
- 1:09:07companies like, you know, Palunteer,
- 1:09:11uh, you know, just name them, all all
- 1:09:14the AI stocks, right? From the memory
- 1:09:16stocks to the data centers. Uh, I've
- 1:09:21been in on just about every single AI
- 1:09:23trade because I had mentally prepared
- 1:09:26myself for the trade and I was zoned in
- 1:09:30and waiting for it. And to this day, I'm
- 1:09:34still working on it. And I still think
- 1:09:36going forward that it's the biggest
- 1:09:38opportunity for investors and we
- 1:09:43I don't know I want to say we probably
- 1:09:45won't ever get this again for a very
- 1:09:46long time if ever. I could be wrong
- 1:09:49because it's I I don't like to predict
- 1:09:50the future. I just like to stay focused
- 1:09:52on assessing the the ground truth of of
- 1:09:55the present.
- 1:09:57But
- 1:09:58I am a little concerned with will there
- 1:10:03be another mega opportunity for
- 1:10:04investors after the AI trade is over. I
- 1:10:06don't think it's even close to being
- 1:10:07over by the way. But
- 1:10:09>> are we still early on the AI trade?
- 1:10:11>> I I I don't know if I would use the word
- 1:10:13early. It just goes through phases. I
- 1:10:15talked about this. There was like this
- 1:10:17discovery phase. Uh there was this
- 1:10:21magical moment. Chachi BT, right? And
- 1:10:23that was the Nvidia phase. Nvidia was
- 1:10:25actually my first investment in AI uh
- 1:10:28that I knocked it out of the park on.
- 1:10:29And then there was the infrastructure
- 1:10:31wave which we're still in. Like we're
- 1:10:33still in the infrastructure wave. Uh but
- 1:10:35this next big wave I think I call it the
- 1:10:38AI efficiency wave. And it's the biggest
- 1:10:42part of the AI cycle because up until
- 1:10:44now there's only been like I don't know
- 1:10:4720 or 30 companies that have really
- 1:10:49meaningfully benefited from artificial
- 1:10:51intelligence as part of the
- 1:10:53infrastructure layer. They either make
- 1:10:54chips or they make data centers or
- 1:10:57they're involved with energy or memory,
- 1:11:00right?
- 1:11:01But at some point in time, I firmly
- 1:11:06believe that we are going to see massive
- 1:11:10meaningful
- 1:11:12increases in productivity and efficiency
- 1:11:16that AI is going to bring to almost
- 1:11:18every major company on Earth, especially
- 1:11:22those companies that are spending
- 1:11:26massive amounts of money on just
- 1:11:30repetitive
- 1:11:31human type of work, right? But even
- 1:11:34beyond that, just the degree to which
- 1:11:37artificial intelligence, even without
- 1:11:40displacing humans,
- 1:11:42can actually help these companies
- 1:11:45optimize their businesses. the degree to
- 1:11:48which artificial intelligence can help
- 1:11:52every company in the world figure out a
- 1:11:55better, cheaper way to manufacture
- 1:11:58whatever it is that they manufacture or
- 1:12:00how to deliver whatever it is that they
- 1:12:02deliver to their end customers. AI is
- 1:12:05going to deliver productivity increases
- 1:12:09everywhere. Okay, in terms of as because
- 1:12:12we're democratizing intelligence. So,
- 1:12:15it's not just about displacing human
- 1:12:17employees. I actually don't even think
- 1:12:19that's going to be a really big deal. I
- 1:12:21think it's going to be more about
- 1:12:23allowing companies to expand
- 1:12:27where they couldn't before because there
- 1:12:29were not enough humans
- 1:12:32to expand, right, into areas they want
- 1:12:35to expand into. And now they could do
- 1:12:38more with the humans they have by
- 1:12:41retraining them to do different things
- 1:12:44to be more optimized with their talent
- 1:12:46and their time by leveraging AI. Of
- 1:12:49course, I know I'm an optimist, but this
- 1:12:52is my thesis.
- 1:12:54Um, and that so many of the world's
- 1:12:58companies are going to see massive jumps
- 1:13:01in both revenue
- 1:13:03and in earnings power because they will
- 1:13:08be optimized because the intelligence
- 1:13:12layer will be fully democratized and
- 1:13:14free. And so that's the efficiency wave.
- 1:13:18And the companies that are probably best
- 1:13:20positioned to benefit more than anyone
- 1:13:23else are companies that have
- 1:13:25distribution because distribution is
- 1:13:29just really hard to replicate and takes
- 1:13:32years and years and years to build out.
- 1:13:35So if you're a company that's been
- 1:13:38operating for years to decades and you
- 1:13:42have massive distribution
- 1:13:45around the world to clients, to
- 1:13:47customers, whether it's physical product
- 1:13:50or not physical product. Uh you have
- 1:13:53relationships, right? You have vendor
- 1:13:55relationships, you have supply chain
- 1:13:57relationships, you have reseller
- 1:13:59relationships. There are so many aspects
- 1:14:02of the business world that are ex
- 1:14:06exceedingly difficult to just easily
- 1:14:10replicate quickly. So once the
- 1:14:13intelligence layer becomes free and
- 1:14:15allows companies to optimize what they
- 1:14:18do, the companies that have the built-in
- 1:14:21distribution are going to win. Not
- 1:14:24necessarily a startup because normally a
- 1:14:27startup wins because they're more
- 1:14:29innovative, right? The they're capable
- 1:14:32of doing things quicker.
- 1:14:35Well,
- 1:14:36in a world of AI,
- 1:14:39even the big companies will have the
- 1:14:41ability to innovate on their products
- 1:14:42instantaneously,
- 1:14:44right? So, like if you come up with a
- 1:14:48great new way to improve a product and
- 1:14:50you're like, "We're going to improve
- 1:14:52this product because that big incumbent,
- 1:14:55their product's just kind of crappy."
- 1:14:56Well, the big incumbent's AI agents are
- 1:14:59already thought of that idea. You know
- 1:15:01what I'm saying? [laughter] Already
- 1:15:02working on it. So like, yeah, no one at
- 1:15:04Hey, okay, nobody at the big incumbent
- 1:15:07cares enough
- 1:15:09or to actually innovate,
- 1:15:13but the AI agents that they have working
- 1:15:15for them do. Okay, so like I act my
- 1:15:19thesis is that the big companies that
- 1:15:21have the distribution are actually going
- 1:15:23to massively benefit from this AI
- 1:15:26efficiency wave. And where that gets
- 1:15:28really exciting is that if I'm correct
- 1:15:32can become the driver for the entirety
- 1:15:36of the stock market and capital markets
- 1:15:39to grow meaningfully as opposed to just
- 1:15:42the 20 or 30 or 40 companies that are
- 1:15:45deep in the AI infrastructure layer.
- 1:15:47Okay, that means everybody wins.
- 1:15:50All the investors win. Capital markets
- 1:15:53wins. By the way, humans win because
- 1:15:58when these companies win, they need they
- 1:16:01have more money. They want to expand.
- 1:16:04And yes, you know, every bit of
- 1:16:06expansion requires less humans than
- 1:16:10before, but they're expanding. So
- 1:16:12hopefully, I think everybody's going to
- 1:16:14have really great jobs as a result of
- 1:16:16this. And this is where people really
- 1:16:18get pissed off cuz like everybody wants
- 1:16:20to be a doomer. Are we going to have
- 1:16:22obstacles? Are we going to have sectors
- 1:16:24of the economy where people lose jobs?
- 1:16:26Yes. Do we need to help those people?
- 1:16:28100%. I want us more focused on helping
- 1:16:32the people as opposed to helping the
- 1:16:34jobs. I want the jobs to go away and to
- 1:16:38become new better jobs. I want to help
- 1:16:42the people that get left out. And the
- 1:16:45best way to help those people, well,
- 1:16:48temporarily we have to come up with
- 1:16:49innovative ways just to patch them
- 1:16:51through this process. But the best way
- 1:16:53to help those people is to provide a
- 1:16:57much larger
- 1:16:59growth trajectory for the global economy
- 1:17:02that will want to bring those people
- 1:17:04back into it with higher [snorts]
- 1:17:06paying, more interesting
- 1:17:09jobs than before. And not just those
- 1:17:11people, but their kids and their
- 1:17:13grandkids, right? And so, like, I don't
- 1:17:15know why everybody's so negative.
- 1:17:18I don't I never thought I would be the
- 1:17:20positive guy in this world, but I guess
- 1:17:22I'm the only guy that's thinking
- 1:17:23positively about all this. And we'll see
- 1:17:26if I'm right. I hope I'm right. Right.
- 1:17:28But like, you got to have the right
- 1:17:30attitude for this to even have a
- 1:17:32starting point for building the new
- 1:17:35economy to where we can all flourish.
- 1:17:37Let's let let's take the other side
- 1:17:39there, which is I've had two people
- 1:17:42recently who've sat in that same chair
- 1:17:45who both believe that if we reach ASI or
- 1:17:50artificial super intelligence,
- 1:17:52an intelligent system that's more
- 1:17:55intelligent than all humans combined in
- 1:17:58every subject matter.
- 1:18:00They've both have told me and one is now
- 1:18:02has just moved to Washington to petition
- 1:18:05government on this. They both truly
- 1:18:07believe and one's been studying AI for
- 1:18:0920 years, AI safety. They both truly
- 1:18:12believe that artificial super
- 1:18:14intelligence will wipe out all of
- 1:18:15humanity. Not just we're going to lose
- 1:18:17our jobs. That it will it'll look at
- 1:18:20humans as we look at ants. Okay, we have
- 1:18:22to build this road. There's going to be
- 1:18:24ants that are going to die. What do you
- 1:18:27think about that?
- 1:18:29>> So the two ideas are not like, you know,
- 1:18:32mutually exclusive, right? like like so
- 1:18:35they could both be correct to some
- 1:18:37extent.
- 1:18:38Uh
- 1:18:40I tend to believe they are correct if we
- 1:18:46don't do something about it. Now but
- 1:18:50know this because I've spent a lot of
- 1:18:52time on this too.
- 1:18:54Historically
- 1:18:56again a lot of this comes down to like
- 1:18:59the psychology of humans and how we
- 1:19:01behave.
- 1:19:02Historically, we don't get our crap
- 1:19:05together until we absolutely have to.
- 1:19:08Okay? Admittedly, we've done a horrible
- 1:19:11job, horrible job at providing like,
- 1:19:18you know, a safety framework for
- 1:19:20artificial intelligence. It's actually
- 1:19:22disgusting that we've got this far
- 1:19:25without even communicating really that
- 1:19:28much across labs, across countries,
- 1:19:31across governments. We're not even
- 1:19:33trying. Like, it's so depressing to
- 1:19:37think about that. This is the biggest
- 1:19:40existential threat that I've seen to
- 1:19:43humanity ever since I've been alive. And
- 1:19:46no one's even doing anything about it.
- 1:19:49And I'm an optimist. as you can tell
- 1:19:52from everything I've said.
- 1:19:55[sighs]
- 1:19:56My hope
- 1:19:58[laughter]
- 1:20:00is that it's going to get real quickly
- 1:20:03and that we're going to wake up and do
- 1:20:05something about it. Historically,
- 1:20:09we usually do.
- 1:20:12I don't know.
- 1:20:13>> Their pitch or their counter-argument to
- 1:20:15that is you you only know once you've
- 1:20:18reached it. Once you've reached
- 1:20:19artificial super intelligence, it's too
- 1:20:21late. And we may reach it in a year,
- 1:20:23three, it's hard to say exactly when,
- 1:20:25but in short order, it'll be reached if
- 1:20:27we don't put guard rails now. And
- 1:20:29there's no financial incentives right
- 1:20:31now to have those guardrails. Whereas
- 1:20:33where the lobbying is coming from these
- 1:20:34big companies who have money, who are
- 1:20:36just incentivized [clears throat] by
- 1:20:37making more money, there's there's no
- 1:20:39there has to be government intervention.
- 1:20:40And that's just for us. That doesn't
- 1:20:42count China. That doesn't count Russia
- 1:20:43or other places. So the people that I've
- 1:20:45talked to in in around AI that are deep
- 1:20:49in it have all expressed this type of
- 1:20:52concern. And I I think there's probably
- 1:20:55a bigger concern that happens before
- 1:20:58that.
- 1:21:00You know, they're worried about
- 1:21:03super intelligence.
- 1:21:06I'm I'm concerned about things that
- 1:21:09happen before super intelligence. I'm
- 1:21:12concerned about bad actors.
- 1:21:15It doesn't take super intelligence for a
- 1:21:18bad actor to get access because it only
- 1:21:20takes one bad actor or a group to get
- 1:21:24access to these tools even before they
- 1:21:27become super intelligent
- 1:21:30to figure out how to cause mass
- 1:21:32destruction in the most optimized way
- 1:21:34ever. I'm way more concerned about that
- 1:21:37right now.
- 1:21:39I'm not saying we shouldn't be working
- 1:21:41on both, but I think my problem happens
- 1:21:44before ASI
- 1:21:45>> and maybe that's when they take notice
- 1:21:47and start to build some guard rails in.
- 1:21:50>> I I hope um
- 1:21:53I'm not the guy to solve those problems
- 1:21:56and I try not to think about it because
- 1:21:59I know I'm not going to solve those
- 1:22:01problems. I hope other people do and
- 1:22:03I'll support anyone that is trying to
- 1:22:06solve those problems. And to some
- 1:22:08extent, I don't want to, you know,
- 1:22:12I don't want to get in that dark world
- 1:22:15the next however many years of my life I
- 1:22:18have to be obsessed about it and
- 1:22:20thinking about it cuz if it's going to
- 1:22:21happen, it's going to happen. Life is
- 1:22:23pretty good right now still, right? So,
- 1:22:26I want to enjoy life before that
- 1:22:28happens. I mean, I'm just being honest
- 1:22:30with you. Like, we all have to make our
- 1:22:32own decisions. Like if I was in a place
- 1:22:34where I thought, "Hey, I'm the right
- 1:22:36person to solve that problem, I'd get my
- 1:22:39butt up and solve it." But I I don't
- 1:22:40think I am. I know there are people out
- 1:22:42there that are great at what they do.
- 1:22:45Um, and I really really hope that
- 1:22:48they're taking this seriously. I hope
- 1:22:50that this is their calling. Like I hope
- 1:22:52there are a ton of people out there that
- 1:22:56are selfless in terms of how they think
- 1:22:58or not. Doesn't matter. They just know
- 1:23:00that this is their calling that they can
- 1:23:02execute and make a difference. And I
- 1:23:06hope they stand up, you know, soon and
- 1:23:09ruffle some feathers and make things
- 1:23:11happen. I think they will have support
- 1:23:13from people. Like every year that we go,
- 1:23:17probably every month at this point,
- 1:23:19right? I think people will become more
- 1:23:22aware of the dangers that come with AI.
- 1:23:25>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and I'm trying to do
- 1:23:27my part by giving them a platform to
- 1:23:30speak out so more people can understand
- 1:23:31this. Okay, let's go back to trading.
- 1:23:33Um, you've said that the best traders
- 1:23:35only make large trades maybe every 5
- 1:23:38years or 10 years. It's when I when
- 1:23:40people think about trading, I feel like
- 1:23:42they may think, oh, you're sitting there
- 1:23:44in front of a computer, you're just
- 1:23:45hitting buttons, you're trading all day.
- 1:23:46But it seems like from the stuff you
- 1:23:48talked about, some of these huge major
- 1:23:50trades in major trends happen every 5
- 1:23:55years, every decade. This could be years
- 1:23:57before another huge movement comes
- 1:23:59before you make a crazy huge bet. And I
- 1:24:01know you just made a huge uh huge bet in
- 1:24:03Amazon.
- 1:24:04>> Yeah. I mean, so there are times when
- 1:24:08the trades are more obvious. This is one
- 1:24:11of those times, right? There's just a
- 1:24:13lot of these trades and they're really
- 1:24:14obvious and they're really big. There's
- 1:24:18always trades out there to make. You
- 1:24:19just kind of have to like work harder to
- 1:24:22find them. At this point, like during
- 1:24:25COVID with all those trades, they were
- 1:24:27just like falling from the sky. And and
- 1:24:29and with the AI trade, it's not too far
- 1:24:33off from that. It's like, okay, who
- 1:24:35makes the chips? You know, who makes the
- 1:24:38data centers? What do the data centers
- 1:24:40need to operate? You know, like I'm
- 1:24:41invested in a couple foreign companies
- 1:24:43in Japan that are like, "Oh, they need
- 1:24:45this scanning equipment to test, you
- 1:24:48know, the integrity of the chips before
- 1:24:50they go into the rack." Like that
- 1:24:52company's going to be a winner. Like,
- 1:24:54it's not that difficult.
- 1:24:57When you get beyond these periods of
- 1:24:59like insane amounts of change happening
- 1:25:02in the world,
- 1:25:03the opportunities are a little harder to
- 1:25:05find. Like, yeah, if you were one of the
- 1:25:07early people that were fortunate enough
- 1:25:09to have a friend that drove a Tesla and
- 1:25:11you got in one, you're like, "Okay, this
- 1:25:13is a game changer. I'm investing in
- 1:25:15Tesla." Boom. Right place, right time.
- 1:25:17Tesla was a lifedee defining investment
- 1:25:20for you. And I know a lot of guys that
- 1:25:24might never make another great
- 1:25:25investment again, but the fact that they
- 1:25:27invested in Tesla at the right time is
- 1:25:30going to make them a top 1% investor
- 1:25:33in, you know, just because they did and
- 1:25:36they invested a lot. Like a lot of these
- 1:25:38guys like put like 20, 30, 40% of their
- 1:25:41liquid net worth in Tesla when it was
- 1:25:43basically nothing. And now they're
- 1:25:44cajillionaires, right? [sighs]
- 1:25:46And they deserve it. Uh but there's a
- 1:25:50lot there's a lot of those stories,
- 1:25:51right? You only need to capture like one
- 1:25:53or two of them really over your
- 1:25:55lifetime. So yeah, if you can capture
- 1:25:57one every 5 to 10 years, you're doing
- 1:25:59great. But but but again, you have to be
- 1:26:02willing to put a lot of money in, maybe
- 1:26:05levered. So if you don't have an account
- 1:26:08where you can do that with, then you're
- 1:26:11just going to hit another single.
- 1:26:13But you want an account where you could
- 1:26:15hit home runs, you know, grand slams,
- 1:26:17right? Like you want to have that
- 1:26:19account because you never know when it's
- 1:26:20going to fall in your lap
- 1:26:23and you want to understand how to use
- 1:26:25the tools of leverage. You want to
- 1:26:27become comfortable with them so that in
- 1:26:323 years or eight years when that thing
- 1:26:35happens you're like I know exactly what
- 1:26:37to do. I've been waiting for this. When
- 1:26:39COVID hit I knew exactly what to do.
- 1:26:40I've been waiting for it. Um
- 1:26:44when this AI thing hit, I've been
- 1:26:46waiting for this. Let's talk about Tesla
- 1:26:47for a second. You mentioned you
- 1:26:48mentioned Tesla. Do you think humanoids
- 1:26:52is the is going to be the next big
- 1:26:54thing? If so, do you think Tesla wins
- 1:26:56that market? Is it another company like
- 1:26:57Figure AI or some of these others? Is
- 1:27:00that another big trend like a similar to
- 1:27:02an AI that can essentially take over and
- 1:27:04be one of these huge mega wins?
- 1:27:08>> Yeah. As as people know, I was probably
- 1:27:10the earliest robot investor because I
- 1:27:12just happened to meet the founders of
- 1:27:14one of the big three robot companies
- 1:27:16eight years ago before robots were
- 1:27:18robots. Uh I I believe that generalized
- 1:27:22robotics,
- 1:27:23right? So robots that are fully
- 1:27:27generalized in their capabilities,
- 1:27:29meaning that they could actually do
- 1:27:31anything. One robot that could more or
- 1:27:33less do anything that a human could do.
- 1:27:37Whether it looks exactly like a human or
- 1:27:39not is kind of irrelevant. I think that
- 1:27:41will be the biggest industry that we've
- 1:27:43ever seen materialize. I think it will
- 1:27:46change economies. I think it will
- 1:27:52I mean it turns
- 1:27:55it turns physical labor into software
- 1:27:57basically. It's how we should be
- 1:27:59thinking about it. You
- 1:28:03get near infinite scaling in the world.
- 1:28:07And there's nothing we can't accomplish
- 1:28:09anymore because the biggest bottleneck
- 1:28:12historically has always been physical
- 1:28:16labor or our limitations on our
- 1:28:19capabilities to physically construct,
- 1:28:22right, and build. But we're about to
- 1:28:25have democratized intelligence. And once
- 1:28:28we get democratized
- 1:28:32physical labor, you put those two worlds
- 1:28:34together and the possibilities are truly
- 1:28:38infinite both here and where throughout
- 1:28:42the universe, right?
- 1:28:44So, it's just a matter of time. It I
- 1:28:47it's not to me it's not like do you
- 1:28:50believe, it's when do you believe? Is is
- 1:28:53that a market where it's winner take all
- 1:28:55or is that a market where Tesla and some
- 1:28:56of these other there could be multiple
- 1:28:58winners? You know, is it like search or
- 1:29:00is it something else?
- 1:29:01>> It's definitely not a winner take all
- 1:29:03market. That that I I can say that with
- 1:29:05confidence.
- 1:29:06>> Why is that?
- 1:29:07>> Because
- 1:29:09the world of generalized robotics is
- 1:29:11going to move meaningfully slower than
- 1:29:13anybody understands.
- 1:29:15Uh
- 1:29:17you have hardware involved, right? And
- 1:29:21when you have hardware involved
- 1:29:24and you have generalization involved and
- 1:29:26you have safety involved and you have
- 1:29:29processes involved with with putting
- 1:29:32these things to work, we've never done
- 1:29:35that before. You have deployment
- 1:29:37challenges. So the deployment of
- 1:29:40generalized robots into the world is
- 1:29:43going to happen really slowly because
- 1:29:45each deployment is going to require a
- 1:29:48massive amount of change transformation.
- 1:29:51What I mean by that is when IBM created
- 1:29:55mainframes, I don't know, back in the
- 1:29:5780s, if you were, I don't know, a big
- 1:30:01company that manufactured
- 1:30:04food,
- 1:30:06they would deliver a mainframe to you.
- 1:30:09You didn't just become a company that
- 1:30:11now operates off of a computer because
- 1:30:12you have a mainframe sitting in your
- 1:30:14basement. you maybe spent 10 years
- 1:30:16figuring out how to integrate that
- 1:30:18mainframe into every area of your
- 1:30:20business. Right? So now we're going to
- 1:30:23go to a company that has hundreds of
- 1:30:24thousands of employees and has, you
- 1:30:26know, dock workers and laborers at
- 1:30:28manufacturing facilities doing a hundred
- 1:30:30different things and warehouses and
- 1:30:32every warehouse looks a little
- 1:30:33different, different safety standards
- 1:30:35depending on the country it's in. uh and
- 1:30:39we're going to say, "Hey, we have a
- 1:30:40generalized robot that theoretically
- 1:30:43can do all that stuff." It's going to
- 1:30:46take years and years and years to go
- 1:30:49through the change transformation to
- 1:30:51understand how to onboard these robots
- 1:30:53just into a small number of their
- 1:30:56facilities into all their facilities is
- 1:30:59going to take even longer. And then once
- 1:31:00you kind of like scale that problem AC
- 1:31:03across not just one company's facilities
- 1:31:06but across every company in the world
- 1:31:08and the long tale of hundreds of
- 1:31:10thousands if not millions of
- 1:31:12independently owned warehouses and this
- 1:31:14and that like there's just a learning
- 1:31:16curve and a deployment curve that has to
- 1:31:19take place because of that. this will
- 1:31:21happen relatively slowly and when things
- 1:31:24happen relatively slowly and it's
- 1:31:26deployentoriented
- 1:31:28meaning it's not a company that is just
- 1:31:30like scaling with AI for example a lot
- 1:31:35of companies are going to have a shot to
- 1:31:36get in that game there's a lot of manual
- 1:31:39processes there's a lot of teams that
- 1:31:41need to be put out into the world to
- 1:31:42work handinhand with all these companies
- 1:31:44on the change transformation now I know
- 1:31:46that everything I'm saying right now is
- 1:31:47not sexy and that's the problem and this
- 1:31:50is why no one else is talking about this
- 1:31:52because it's like not a sexy thing to
- 1:31:54talk about, but it's the truth.
- 1:31:57And if you spend a thousand hours deeply
- 1:32:00researching generalized robotics and the
- 1:32:02deployment of generalized robotics into
- 1:32:04the real world like I have, this is
- 1:32:06something that you understand. Um, so my
- 1:32:09expectations for humanoids and robots
- 1:32:11are very different from other people's
- 1:32:13expectations. However, I do think it's
- 1:32:15the largest
- 1:32:17TAM market on Earth and I think these
- 1:32:21will be some of the largest companies
- 1:32:22we've ever seen and I do think Tesla is
- 1:32:26kind of in the pole position to be one
- 1:32:28of those companies.
- 1:32:31So, there's Appronic out of Austin. Yes,
- 1:32:35Figure AI out of San Francisco. Uh we
- 1:32:38technically have Boston Dynamics as
- 1:32:40well, which is a subsidiary of Hyundai.
- 1:32:42So it's not really an American company.
- 1:32:44We just don't have a lot yet in the US.
- 1:32:48So I think the companies that are in the
- 1:32:50US that are doing good work are going to
- 1:32:53have an inherent advantage because
- 1:32:55building out those supply chains and
- 1:32:57locking up those supply chains going
- 1:33:00through change transformation with the
- 1:33:01biggest companies on Earth. They want to
- 1:33:03be able to trust that they're locking
- 1:33:05into a company they're going to be
- 1:33:06partnered with for 10 or 15 or 20 years
- 1:33:08is a company that's going to be around
- 1:33:10in 10 or 15 or 20 years. So, they're not
- 1:33:12going to go work with another random
- 1:33:14startup.
- 1:33:15So, I think we're going to see some
- 1:33:17really exciting things happen over the
- 1:33:19next few years.
- 1:33:21And yes, I think Tesla has an
- 1:33:24opportunity to be one of the biggest
- 1:33:26companies in the world that's doing
- 1:33:27this, but they have to execute. Listen,
- 1:33:29Elon has not executed as well as people
- 1:33:36thought maybe he would on a handful of
- 1:33:38things, right, the last few years. And I
- 1:33:41think robotics is one of those things
- 1:33:43where it's not his fault necessarily,
- 1:33:45but I think his expectations for how
- 1:33:48quickly we can,
- 1:33:51you know, hit all the KPIs that you need
- 1:33:54to hit from a robot was never realistic.
- 1:33:57And so I think his expectations were off
- 1:34:00for his team. His team has cycled
- 1:34:02through a lot of leadership right at
- 1:34:04Optimus.
- 1:34:06And I want all the robot companies to
- 1:34:09win. I actually think that robotics will
- 1:34:13be maybe the number one
- 1:34:18way to democratize quality of life
- 1:34:22globally, especially across the third
- 1:34:24world because it gives us the ability to
- 1:34:26to lift the third world up. You know, in
- 1:34:29health care, it gives us the ability not
- 1:34:33just to help extend life, but
- 1:34:35dramatically improve life for those that
- 1:34:37can never afford to have a caregiver,
- 1:34:40right? Imagine having a thing that could
- 1:34:44do 99% of the stuff that you need done.
- 1:34:46Whether it's bringing food in that's
- 1:34:48being delivered, taking trash out, doing
- 1:34:50dishes, making sure the house is clean,
- 1:34:52helping you get to the bathroom, helping
- 1:34:54you get up from bed, washing your
- 1:34:56clothes, drying your clothes, getting
- 1:34:59your clothes, helping you get your
- 1:35:00clothes on. I mean, there's just an
- 1:35:03maybe you can now have a pet because it
- 1:35:05will help you take care of all the stuff
- 1:35:06that goes with having a pet that's
- 1:35:08difficult, which is super important. and
- 1:35:11that increases quality of life. Right?
- 1:35:13So this is obviously something I thought
- 1:35:16deeply about and
- 1:35:19it is massively beneficial to humanity
- 1:35:21if we can figure out this problem. So
- 1:35:24I'm not like a Tesla versus electronic
- 1:35:26versus figure guy versus China guy. I'm
- 1:35:29a I want everyone to win and I want this
- 1:35:32to to like accelerate as quickly as
- 1:35:36possible. and being an early investor um
- 1:35:39in
- 1:35:40>> in all the companies pretty much. Right.
- 1:35:42So,
- 1:35:42>> uh you have any idea on timing like when
- 1:35:45will we have a humanoid robot in our
- 1:35:47households?
- 1:35:49>> I think at some point in 2027 we're
- 1:35:53going to have a commercially scalable
- 1:35:56humanoid.
- 1:35:57>> Really? Next year. That doesn't mean
- 1:35:59that they will commercially scale, but
- 1:36:00we will have one that will be the
- 1:36:02template for one that can start
- 1:36:03commercially scaling in 2028. The value
- 1:36:07of those robots is so high that
- 1:36:11it would be wasteful to put them in
- 1:36:13people's houses because there will be
- 1:36:15companies that will pay 70 to 100,000 a
- 1:36:20year to to le to rent that robot, right?
- 1:36:23Uh and it's not even to have that robot
- 1:36:25then because they want every company
- 1:36:27wants to begin the journey of
- 1:36:30generalized robotics because if they
- 1:36:32fall too behind on that journey even if
- 1:36:35it's four or six years away when the
- 1:36:38scaling and the deployments actually
- 1:36:40start to meaningfully impact their
- 1:36:42business. If they don't start on day one
- 1:36:46their competitor does they will be left
- 1:36:49out. So, there's going to be massive
- 1:36:52demand for these robots once they're
- 1:36:54able to hit their KPIs.
- 1:36:56And
- 1:36:58I don't think any of the bleeding edge
- 1:37:00companies, I don't believe, we'll see,
- 1:37:03are going to allocate too many to home
- 1:37:05use unless they're trying to
- 1:37:09flex for some quick revenue or to like
- 1:37:13for an IPO or something. Like there are
- 1:37:16some strategic reasons why I could see
- 1:37:18them doing it because you can take a ton
- 1:37:19of pre-orders. You can like prove demand
- 1:37:21whereas commercial deployment requires a
- 1:37:24very slow growth even with one or two or
- 1:37:27three companies.
- 1:37:30I think we'll have the capabilities and
- 1:37:32the and the supply to have humanoids in
- 1:37:36the homes in like 6 to 10 years maybe
- 1:37:40earlier. maybe 5 to 10 years is that
- 1:37:43that's probably more realistic. I think
- 1:37:45initially there'll be companies that
- 1:37:47won't, you know, the humanoids maybe
- 1:37:49won't be quite as good or as durable.
- 1:37:52And by the way, I we might see them a
- 1:37:54lot sooner. We might see them in two or
- 1:37:55three years, but they'll be very
- 1:37:56experimental. They're not going to be
- 1:37:57like they're going to be like kind of
- 1:38:00good enough, right? You know, kind of
- 1:38:02good enough, but they're still learning.
- 1:38:04And remember, we have an we have a whole
- 1:38:05neural network foundation model on AI
- 1:38:08that's the brain of the robot that's
- 1:38:09still evolving. So like it's the
- 1:38:11hardware that is like almost there,
- 1:38:15but also on the software and on the
- 1:38:18model side that's also almost there. So
- 1:38:22neither is where they need to be and
- 1:38:24they both need to be there together.
- 1:38:26>> What do you think about Bitcoin?
- 1:38:28>> I just have never cared about Bitcoin
- 1:38:31other than the fact that other people
- 1:38:33care about Bitcoin. So, as long as other
- 1:38:36people care about Bitcoin and the
- 1:38:39younger generation does, which they do a
- 1:38:42little less now than they did the last
- 1:38:44six years, but that's all that matters
- 1:38:46to me because there's a hundred trillion
- 1:38:48dollars of wealth transfer. The money
- 1:38:51obviously transfers from old people to
- 1:38:53young people, younger people, and
- 1:38:55younger people are more into Bitcoin
- 1:38:58than old people. So, we don't have to
- 1:39:00overthink it. Whether they generally put
- 1:39:021% of their portfolio in Bitcoin or five
- 1:39:05doesn't really matter. There is an
- 1:39:08insane tailwind for Bitcoin that is
- 1:39:12almost unstoppable
- 1:39:15unless
- 1:39:16people lose their taste for Bitcoin
- 1:39:20because of security concerns, right?
- 1:39:23That that their Bitcoin is not capable
- 1:39:26of being protected. So, it's not a
- 1:39:28protectable safe asset. So they don't
- 1:39:30want to really put money in it. As long
- 1:39:33as that's not an issue, I think Bitcoin
- 1:39:36has a really strong tailwind. So as an
- 1:39:38investor, I see it as a direct
- 1:39:40beneficiary of the wealth transfer that
- 1:39:45is just starting to take place and will
- 1:39:47continue to take place over the next 20
- 1:39:49to 25 years. So that's my only that's
- 1:39:53been that's always been my Bitcoin trade
- 1:39:55and it continues to be my Bitcoin trade.
- 1:39:57I don't think about
- 1:39:58>> it's not about scarcity. It's not about
- 1:40:00printing money.
- 1:40:02>> All of that stuff is why other people
- 1:40:04invest in it. I don't care why they
- 1:40:06invest in it. All I care is that they
- 1:40:09think there's a reason to invest in it.
- 1:40:11>> So if enough people still
- 1:40:14think about Bitcoin as an asset class.
- 1:40:16>> That's right. I don't think there's any
- 1:40:18reason to invest in gold for the last 40
- 1:40:21years. But it doesn't matter what I
- 1:40:23think. If people think that gold is a
- 1:40:26safe haven in a, you know, crap hits the
- 1:40:30fan scenario in life,
- 1:40:33then they're going to invest some part
- 1:40:35of their portfolio in gold. And as
- 1:40:38people, as wealth as the wealth pie
- 1:40:40increased, there was more money over
- 1:40:42time put in gold and the price of gold
- 1:40:45goes up. I don't see this being any
- 1:40:47different with the exception of instead
- 1:40:50of having the occasional person that
- 1:40:52really cares about gold, nearly every
- 1:40:54young investor cares about crypto and
- 1:40:56Bitcoin. Not all of them, but most. So
- 1:41:00to me, that is the only thing that
- 1:41:03matters as an investor. I don't need to
- 1:41:05believe in Bitcoin. I don't need to
- 1:41:07believe in this use case or that use
- 1:41:10case. I don't want to waste any of my
- 1:41:12time even thinking about it. I'm not
- 1:41:15adverse against investing in it because
- 1:41:18other people care about that stuff and
- 1:41:20they are only going to get more wealthy
- 1:41:22over time. It it just is a proven fact
- 1:41:25that young people get more wealthy over
- 1:41:28the course of their life. They either
- 1:41:30get it through their work or they get it
- 1:41:32through inheritance. This is like not a
- 1:41:34complicated thing to understand. And we
- 1:41:37have a over a hundred trillion that
- 1:41:38needs to be transferred to them.
- 1:41:41>> Do you think wealth inequality is going
- 1:41:42to continue?
- 1:41:44Um,
- 1:41:46I hope not because
- 1:41:52you know I think the most important
- 1:41:54thing that we could do
- 1:41:56period, this is what all I care about
- 1:41:59talking about is to get every person
- 1:42:01investing. We need more people owning
- 1:42:04>> assets.
- 1:42:05>> Assets
- 1:42:06and not just assets. We need more people
- 1:42:09owning a share
- 1:42:12of the growth economy.
- 1:42:15What is that? It's called stocks. Okay.
- 1:42:18Uh and if we could do that one thing,
- 1:42:24all of our problems are solved when it
- 1:42:26comes to the wealth gap. I do not think
- 1:42:30we're going to be able to meaningfully
- 1:42:32solve the income gap. I just think it's
- 1:42:34too tough of a problem to solve. is too
- 1:42:37fragmented. Uh, and I don't think we
- 1:42:39need to solve it. I think we need to
- 1:42:41focus on the wealth gap. I, you know,
- 1:42:43whether someone loves or hates this
- 1:42:46current administration,
- 1:42:48they did, and and this is like both
- 1:42:51parties here working together. So, it's
- 1:42:53not everybody deserves credit for this.
- 1:42:56Uh that program where every child gets a
- 1:43:00brokerage account with $1,000 in it is
- 1:43:03the most genius thing that's ever
- 1:43:05happened in my lifetime. Like to like to
- 1:43:07in terms of like solving the wealth gap
- 1:43:10because now every single kid has an
- 1:43:13account and now other people like just
- 1:43:16give us a channel to help. That's the
- 1:43:18thing. Like now that they created that
- 1:43:19channel, you have these guys like Dell
- 1:43:22out there like donating billions of
- 1:43:25dollars into those accounts to double
- 1:43:27and triple them, right? And all these
- 1:43:29other philanthropists are out there
- 1:43:31finding like, you know, lowincome zip
- 1:43:33codes and just donating money into every
- 1:43:36kid's account. These kids are going to
- 1:43:39have meaningful money inside
- 1:43:42of the growth economy from the day they
- 1:43:46are born. I mean, if we were to go back
- 1:43:49in time and scratch social security, I
- 1:43:53think there's this thing that like
- 1:43:55Reagan or someone had an idea for
- 1:43:58allowing us to put 10% of our money
- 1:44:01instead of social security, it was going
- 1:44:02to go in the market.
- 1:44:05I saw a stat once of what that would
- 1:44:08have grown into today.
- 1:44:11And let me just tell you like if that
- 1:44:12would have been adopted universally,
- 1:44:15we would not have that big of a wealth
- 1:44:17gap today. Okay? We would not have that
- 1:44:19big of a wealth gap today. And so
- 1:44:22solving the problem isn't hard. We just
- 1:44:24need to execute on it. Like we know how
- 1:44:26to solve it. We already have the
- 1:44:29solution to the wealth gap. There's only
- 1:44:31one solution. The solution is to have
- 1:44:35everybody invested in the growth
- 1:44:36economy.
- 1:44:38End stop. That's the solution. Now,
- 1:44:41let's just do it. And and that one
- 1:44:43program to give every kid a brokerage
- 1:44:45account. Le let's fund them. Let's
- 1:44:47educate them. Let's fund them. Let's get
- 1:44:49kids excited about investing. Let's get
- 1:44:52old people excited about investing. It's
- 1:44:53never too late. Let's get everyone
- 1:44:55excited about investing, whether they're
- 1:44:57good or bad. which is get them to start
- 1:44:59putting more of their money because they
- 1:45:01have to believe that that's the
- 1:45:03solution.
- 1:45:05And by the way, once you do that, you
- 1:45:08start to democratize
- 1:45:11like opportunity in the market as well.
- 1:45:15So it becomes much harder for people to
- 1:45:20generate outsiz returns, right? If every
- 1:45:23like if there's that much more money
- 1:45:24flowing and that many more people that
- 1:45:26are involved and engaged in the market,
- 1:45:28we start to all get our fair share of
- 1:45:30it.
- 1:45:33So I don't really care if the top 1% or
- 1:45:36onetenth of 1% does so exceptionally
- 1:45:38well that they're still like way way way
- 1:45:40ahead of us. All I care about is how do
- 1:45:43we lift like the bottom 70% to get way
- 1:45:46way higher.
- 1:45:47>> Right. Yeah. And you're around some
- 1:45:48extraordinary wealthy people. Are most
- 1:45:51billionaires actually happy?
- 1:45:53>> Uh, I would say no. Um, I think just
- 1:45:57most people aren't happy. So,
- 1:46:00billionaires included. So, like I would
- 1:46:02just say most people as you age just
- 1:46:06aren't happy.
- 1:46:08>> Why is that?
- 1:46:09>> This is something I probably think about
- 1:46:11more than anything else. It's just
- 1:46:13really hard
- 1:46:15uh to kind of like ground yourself in
- 1:46:18life to things that matter because life
- 1:46:20is constantly trying to pull us to the
- 1:46:22things that don't matter. And so I do
- 1:46:27think there is an opportunity and I
- 1:46:29don't want to say like the problem is
- 1:46:31you said billionaire and billionaire
- 1:46:34creates problems 100 millionaire creates
- 1:46:37problems but if you would have asked me
- 1:46:39if people that are doing well
- 1:46:42financially
- 1:46:44and that are financially independent are
- 1:46:48more happy. I would say yes because once
- 1:46:52you're financially independent, it opens
- 1:46:55up headsp space to start to think about
- 1:46:58things that actually matter that you
- 1:47:00want to spend your time on. And that
- 1:47:03first level of realizing, wow, I got to
- 1:47:06get healthy. I want to spend time with
- 1:47:08my kids, with my family. Um, I want to
- 1:47:11connect with my friends more. Right?
- 1:47:13Like these are things that happen to
- 1:47:14you. But then when you become ultra
- 1:47:17wealthy, what I've seen, and this is not
- 1:47:20every case, there's some billionaires,
- 1:47:22I'm sure, are super happy. You
- 1:47:25It's hard to avoid, I think, the trap of
- 1:47:29more stuff, more problems. It's hard to
- 1:47:32stay say no to more stuff. It's just
- 1:47:35very hard when you just have access to
- 1:47:37infinite stuff. And when you have access
- 1:47:39to infinite stuff, it does bring more
- 1:47:43stress, more problems. When you are the
- 1:47:47individual with infinite money, it
- 1:47:49changes the incentives for those that
- 1:47:52are around you to engage with you. So I
- 1:47:54think your relationships change whether
- 1:47:57you want them to change or not. Uh, I
- 1:48:00think it gets really difficult to have
- 1:48:03meaningful, authentic friendships and
- 1:48:06relationships in life when people see
- 1:48:09you as an opportunity,
- 1:48:11even if they're doing that
- 1:48:13subconsciously,
- 1:48:15right? So, I think a lot of times it's
- 1:48:18not like people wanting to necessarily
- 1:48:19use you as much as it is
- 1:48:25I get to go on a better vacation with
- 1:48:27that person or we get to have better
- 1:48:30dinners or whatever that thing is. It's
- 1:48:33just sub it's just the way that the
- 1:48:35world works. So by being ultra wealthy,
- 1:48:41it just presents a set of problems that
- 1:48:44you almost can't avoid. And I think
- 1:48:47those things indirectly make your life
- 1:48:50worse because it it it makes your
- 1:48:56friendships, your connections less
- 1:48:58authentic, less real. It everything is
- 1:49:01worse at that point. So there's a sweet
- 1:49:04spot and the sweet spot is financially
- 1:49:08independent.
- 1:49:10So like once you and that means
- 1:49:12something different to every person but
- 1:49:14I would say that once you reach a point
- 1:49:16where you are financially independent
- 1:49:19and you are financially comfortable in
- 1:49:21perpetuity,
- 1:49:23figure out a way to put the brakes on,
- 1:49:25whatever that means. That could mean
- 1:49:28making less money. It can mean starting
- 1:49:30a charitable foundation and pushing all
- 1:49:32your excess capital to noble causes,
- 1:49:36right, that you no longer have access to
- 1:49:38that money. [sighs and gasps]
- 1:49:40It it could be pouring money into, you
- 1:49:44know, maybe other things that you want
- 1:49:46to do that are really exciting but take
- 1:49:48a tremendous amount of capital but are
- 1:49:51maybe super engaging and and allow you
- 1:49:53to do things in life but like you you're
- 1:49:55not just sitting on insane amounts of
- 1:49:57ridiculous cash.
- 1:49:59>> Is there something dumb that you've
- 1:50:00splurged on that you shouldn't have?
- 1:50:04Hm.
- 1:50:07I
- 1:50:09don't often splurge on things other than
- 1:50:12like we do spend a lot of money on like
- 1:50:16when we go on vacation. We like to stay
- 1:50:18in nice places as a family, but I mean
- 1:50:21that's pretty capped at like hard to
- 1:50:23spend more than $3,000 a night even at
- 1:50:25the nicest hotels in the world. Um, I'll
- 1:50:28never forget that like I felt the the
- 1:50:31most outlandish thing I've ever done in
- 1:50:33my lifetime with money was on this
- 1:50:35Biglio tile uh marble that we put in our
- 1:50:38master shower at my house. And and I
- 1:50:41became obsessed with trying to replicate
- 1:50:43this one tile that we had seen and it
- 1:50:46took us like a year to find something
- 1:50:48close to it and it was the most
- 1:50:49expensive marble I had ever come across.
- 1:50:54But it had gold streaks in it and like I
- 1:50:56didn't want to have like a Donald Trump
- 1:50:58shower. So what we did is my contractor
- 1:51:03had to buy [snorts]
- 1:51:05triple the amount of tile
- 1:51:06>> to not to find the pieces
- 1:51:08>> and cut the pieces so that there would
- 1:51:10be no go cuz like the blue marbling the
- 1:51:13blue gray marbling of this biglio t it
- 1:51:16was phenomenal but these nasty gold
- 1:51:20streaks that were coming through it
- 1:51:22again were like very 80s like I didn't
- 1:51:24want any of it and so the I won't even
- 1:51:27tell you what this [laughter] shower
- 1:51:28cost And then of course I wanted the
- 1:51:31tile to come outside the shower. So like
- 1:51:34when you're getting in it and it was
- 1:51:36like a whole big steam shower with
- 1:51:38multiple heads. So I I we did it and I
- 1:51:42was like this is the most ridiculous
- 1:51:46thing that I will ever do in my life
- 1:51:48when it comes to spending money is this
- 1:51:50shower. I was like the shower cost it
- 1:51:53was a big chunk of it wasn't a big chunk
- 1:51:55of the house but it's like it was a lot.
- 1:51:57It was obscene. It was an obscene amount
- 1:51:59of money and I felt so guilty and I was
- 1:52:01like but it was the type of thing that
- 1:52:03like happened over the course of a year
- 1:52:05was like a journey and then when you the
- 1:52:08the price of it finally hit at the end
- 1:52:10you were in way too deep to pull out but
- 1:52:13I still carry some guilt for the money I
- 1:52:15spent on that. I was like I could have
- 1:52:17done something
- 1:52:19noble with that money for someone that
- 1:52:21needed it.
- 1:52:23We all have our things, but but you
- 1:52:24know, stuff like that just makes me want
- 1:52:26to work harder because I'm like, if I'm
- 1:52:27going to do that for myself, now I got
- 1:52:29to do something way bigger for somebody
- 1:52:30else. Yeah.
- 1:52:31>> And for other people.
- 1:52:32>> Yeah. And we're going to talk about what
- 1:52:33you're what you're doing now. Um, let's
- 1:52:35let's go real quick to the Amazon trade.
- 1:52:37The Amazon trade,
- 1:52:39>> you made a lot of money in the Amazon
- 1:52:41trade. If I'm not mistaken, your account
- 1:52:43in one day went up like roughly $10
- 1:52:46million.
- 1:52:46>> Yeah. A little Yeah. Over the course of
- 1:52:48a couple days was like Yeah. Over 10
- 1:52:50million.
- 1:52:50>> Over $10 million. But I had I had lost
- 1:52:53like not quite that much uh but you know
- 1:52:55le a little less than that over the
- 1:52:57course of a few weeks prior to that. And
- 1:53:01so yeah, I was in a really bad place.
- 1:53:03But this is a trade I've been working on
- 1:53:05all year. And I had anticipated
- 1:53:09the move to happen prior to earnings.
- 1:53:12And so I lost a lot of money in options
- 1:53:15that were expiring prior to earnings.
- 1:53:17And I had one last shot for the trade to
- 1:53:19work. and I was going to take it. It
- 1:53:22would have been financially
- 1:53:23irresponsible for me not to take the
- 1:53:26shot uh with the amount of work I put
- 1:53:29into it because I knew I would not get
- 1:53:33a trade that was that high conviction
- 1:53:35again for a very long time. So, my
- 1:53:38account was beaten up, bleeding almost
- 1:53:42almost down almost down 50%.
- 1:53:45and over a few weeks and I took I took
- 1:53:49another big chunk of money uh which was
- 1:53:51like I say 20% but it's actually 20% of
- 1:53:53the bigger account. It was actually like
- 1:53:55another 20 so it was like almost was
- 1:53:57like a third of what I had left in the
- 1:53:59account on that one trade that was going
- 1:54:02to expire basically in one day and if
- 1:54:05Amazon didn't go up I would have lost
- 1:54:08all that money.
- 1:54:10So people look at that trade and they
- 1:54:12think that's degenerate behavior, but
- 1:54:14they don't understand that this is
- 1:54:17inside of an account that is designed to
- 1:54:22take risk on things that I've done a lot
- 1:54:25of work on that I have high conviction
- 1:54:26on because I want to generate high
- 1:54:30returns on this account and that's what
- 1:54:32it's designed for. So it was the right
- 1:54:35trade for me. Okay? It's not necessarily
- 1:54:38the right trade for someone else's
- 1:54:40account, but it was the right trade for
- 1:54:42me. And
- 1:54:44you know, there was probably a 20%
- 1:54:47chance that that trade would have gone
- 1:54:49wrong due to things that were out of my
- 1:54:52control. And I knew that. So I knew even
- 1:54:55going into that trade, as high
- 1:54:56conviction as I was on it, I knew that
- 1:54:59there was a one in five chance that
- 1:55:01something could happen to the market
- 1:55:02that night, right? It could have been an
- 1:55:04administrative thing at the White House.
- 1:55:06It could have been something with Iran.
- 1:55:08It could have been some other news
- 1:55:10story. Um, Amazon could have had
- 1:55:13something cooking that was a big
- 1:55:16investment that investors would not have
- 1:55:18loved if they would have announced it on
- 1:55:19that earnings call. Something completely
- 1:55:22like offraar to me and other investors.
- 1:55:25I knew that was a possibility.
- 1:55:28But take those possibilities off the
- 1:55:30table. I was n over 99% sure of how that
- 1:55:33earnings call was going to go. Both in
- 1:55:35terms of them beating earnings, crushing
- 1:55:37earnings, and how Jasse, the CEO, was
- 1:55:40going to handle the call related to the
- 1:55:43most sensitive issues of increased capex
- 1:55:46spending, which is the only thing people
- 1:55:47cared about, which we already knew how
- 1:55:50to handle that from the Microsoft
- 1:55:51earnings call a couple days earlier.
- 1:55:54So, so it's like it was a calculated
- 1:55:58choice of mine and it was the biggest
- 1:56:01trading day of my life by far. By far. I
- 1:56:04I I I think the biggest day before that
- 1:56:06was a $5 million gain.
- 1:56:08>> And on Amazon, you this was you were
- 1:56:11using call options. This was up to prior
- 1:56:13to the earnings call. And so what did
- 1:56:16you observe? You observed that they were
- 1:56:18going to beat earnings because of AWS.
- 1:56:20What what was it? What was it that how
- 1:56:22did you observe that? What was your
- 1:56:23research? What was the catalyst?
- 1:56:25>> It was a it was a matrix approach,
- 1:56:27numerous different data sets and
- 1:56:30qualitative
- 1:56:32information that I was studying across
- 1:56:35developers. uh looking at the pricing of
- 1:56:39Amazon's
- 1:56:41uh compute that they were selling in the
- 1:56:43market, what the spot pricing was, like
- 1:56:45just knowing what all their contracts
- 1:56:46look like, like it it was like a big
- 1:56:49puzzle where everything fit and nothing
- 1:56:52didn't make sense
- 1:56:53>> and the market hadn't priced in that
- 1:56:55they were going to do have that
- 1:56:57aggressive of a beat.
- 1:56:58>> Correct. On our correct so the the
- 1:57:00market knew they would have a beat. I
- 1:57:03had high confidence that the beat was
- 1:57:06going to be larger than even the whisper
- 1:57:08number which was like 25%.
- 1:57:11>> And for people that don't know the
- 1:57:11whisper number, the whisper number is
- 1:57:12what the whisper is on the street before
- 1:57:15the earnings
- 1:57:15>> call. Yeah, I I I had fairly good
- 1:57:18confidence that they would beat that.
- 1:57:20But that almost didn't even matter as
- 1:57:21long as they hit that whisper number or
- 1:57:23higher, which is seems so obvious that
- 1:57:25they would. Uh it really came down to
- 1:57:27the call. How is Jasse going to handle
- 1:57:29the capex question? And he knew I mean
- 1:57:33we knew I he already had the
- 1:57:35information. He already saw how
- 1:57:37Microsoft answered it. He saw how the
- 1:57:39market respond to that. All he had to do
- 1:57:41is give his version of that which he
- 1:57:43did. And and and the version is
- 1:57:45basically this. You guys are so worried
- 1:57:47about this capex spend. But what you
- 1:57:50don't realize is that we have control
- 1:57:52over it. One, it's real because
- 1:57:55the demand is there. But you guys are
- 1:57:58all worried about the outlier situation
- 1:58:00where the whole market blows up and we
- 1:58:03just these con people default on their
- 1:58:05contracts with us because their
- 1:58:06companies are bleeding and all this
- 1:58:07stuff, right? He's like a big chunk of
- 1:58:11that capex is like equipment that we can
- 1:58:14maneuver around and delay and not and
- 1:58:17not take if that happens. So he's like
- 1:58:20you're worrying over not he didn't say
- 1:58:21it in these words but this is basically
- 1:58:24the messaging and it's very similar to
- 1:58:26the messaging that Microsoft gave and
- 1:58:28the market was like that's cool. So
- 1:58:30obviously Jasse was going to give his
- 1:58:31version of it. He did market loved it.
- 1:58:35They beat big. He handled the capex. I
- 1:58:37mean again none of this is like brain
- 1:58:39surgery. None of this is like like super
- 1:58:44difficult to kind of figure out,
- 1:58:47but the market is so distracted and
- 1:58:51they're so such a herd mentality.
- 1:58:52They're so surface layer. They're so
- 1:58:55looking at so many different things at
- 1:58:57every second of the day. Uh and also we
- 1:59:01just come off like a really meaningful
- 1:59:02big sell-off that was manipulated uh
- 1:59:05through a market liquidation of Leopold,
- 1:59:07right? which obviously is the the kid
- 1:59:09that turned, you know, few hundred
- 1:59:11million to 40 some odd billion and then
- 1:59:13lost it all, right? Or most of it that
- 1:59:15was publicly traded due to being
- 1:59:18overlevered and then the market, you
- 1:59:21know, started to fall apart and they
- 1:59:24they they they liquidated him and uh
- 1:59:28that was artificial. So like I knew that
- 1:59:30that liquidation was pretty much over as
- 1:59:32well. So like we had a lot of catalysts
- 1:59:34coming into play,
- 1:59:35>> right? But the difference is I don't
- 1:59:37think most people would have the balls
- 1:59:41to continue to put on those trades after
- 1:59:45losing what millions of dollars in the
- 1:59:47weeks prior.
- 1:59:48>> Most people wouldn't because most people
- 1:59:51aren't going to put in the work that I
- 1:59:52put in. You only gain conviction from
- 1:59:55the work you put in. 999
- 1:59:59out of a thousand investors right now
- 2:00:03are too lazy to do any of their own
- 2:00:05work. All they want to do is read what
- 2:00:07someone else puts on X or in an article.
- 2:00:10That's all they're willing to do. And
- 2:00:13then they're so freaked out when someone
- 2:00:15like me takes that big of a chance on a
- 2:00:18trade because they've never done any
- 2:00:21real work in their life when it comes to
- 2:00:22a trade. And when I say real work, I
- 2:00:24mean dozens and dozens of hours, if not
- 2:00:27a 100 plus hours on a trade. So they
- 2:00:30don't understand
- 2:00:34what conviction actually means. It's
- 2:00:36just a word to them. It's not a word to
- 2:00:39me.
- 2:00:40It's work that gets me there. So
- 2:00:46I'm proud of that trade. I'm proud to
- 2:00:49talk about it. I don't care if people
- 2:00:52think it's degenerate behavior. They're
- 2:00:55wrong. They don't understand the risk
- 2:00:57profile of the account that I made the
- 2:01:00trade in. They don't understand my trade
- 2:01:02strategy. I mean, I walked on the iced
- 2:01:05coffee or I walked through the ex total
- 2:01:07trade strategy
- 2:01:09and it was comprehensive.
- 2:01:14So, this is what I do. This is my job.
- 2:01:19Okay? like this is not a fun game for
- 2:01:21me. All right. So, like this is my job.
- 2:01:24So, I did get into like a lot of,
- 2:01:29you know, interactions with people,
- 2:01:31we'll just say, over the past few weeks
- 2:01:32about this trade that were negative and
- 2:01:35it just comes from them not knowing. And
- 2:01:38that's okay. I get it.
- 2:01:40>> How did it feel like when you saw the
- 2:01:43numbers go up on the screen, 10 million?
- 2:01:45I was driving to Austin and um I wasn't
- 2:01:50>> checking your phone like looking at the
- 2:01:51price.
- 2:01:52>> I was so nervous when I made the trade.
- 2:01:54That's when my stomach dropped and I was
- 2:01:56like I almost threw up. I was like cuz
- 2:01:59it's like dude I was like your account's
- 2:02:00getting crushed. You've done the work.
- 2:02:02You know you got to do the thing. You
- 2:02:04know you have to do the thing. Okay. But
- 2:02:08actually hitting the button and doing
- 2:02:09the thing is like oh like I can't
- 2:02:12believe I just did this. like you have
- 2:02:14to do it. Um
- 2:02:17it would have made me sick not to do it.
- 2:02:19In fact, I've said this like I like I I
- 2:02:22should have done it bigger.
- 2:02:23>> Yeah. You said I should have done it 30
- 2:02:25or 40 million.
- 2:02:26>> It should have been a $30 million plus
- 2:02:27day. I should have done it bigger, but
- 2:02:30at a certain point it's just there's
- 2:02:32it's very unnerving even for someone
- 2:02:34like me that's been doing this my entire
- 2:02:35life. You your portfolio size is this
- 2:02:38big, you know, like you know you know
- 2:02:41that it's a probability, right? So
- 2:02:43you're you're you're trading a pro. In
- 2:02:45my case, the probability was 8020. In my
- 2:02:47head, with my math, with my research, it
- 2:02:50was 8020. Now, that could be flawed or
- 2:02:53not, but that's what I believed it to
- 2:02:54be. There's still a 20 in there. 20 is
- 2:02:57one in five. Okay. So,
- 2:03:02you know, how much money are you willing
- 2:03:04to bet knowing that there's a one in
- 2:03:06five chance it's gone? Now, I knew that
- 2:03:10there was a four in five chance
- 2:03:13not just of it doubling, but doing
- 2:03:15something probably meaningfully better
- 2:03:16than doubling. So, if you know those
- 2:03:19odds, you got to take that bet. And you
- 2:03:23you you regret you're always going to
- 2:03:25regret not taking the bet bigger because
- 2:03:26you knew the odds. All right? So, like I
- 2:03:29knew the odds. It should have been a
- 2:03:30bigger bet, but I just I put on the bet
- 2:03:32that I did. But when when it happened, I
- 2:03:35was driving and I was like I was pretty
- 2:03:37calm and I saw it and I was like, "All
- 2:03:40right." You know, it it felt great
- 2:03:43because I I came off the big loss. I
- 2:03:45wanted to like I wanted my money back
- 2:03:48from that lo and then I got it back and
- 2:03:50plus plus.
- 2:03:51>> Were you like screaming with joy? Was it
- 2:03:53just like, "Okay, you look at your
- 2:03:54phone. All right."
- 2:03:55>> It was a good night. It was It was a
- 2:03:56good night.
- 2:03:56>> Was there a party? Was there a
- 2:03:58celebration?
- 2:03:59>> There was no
- 2:03:59>> Did you pop some champagne?
- 2:04:01>> No. So So I went
- 2:04:02>> 10 million in a day. I I so it was fun
- 2:04:04because I got to go out with my buddy
- 2:04:07Matthew Vauovich in Austin and um I
- 2:04:12texted him on the way down and I said,
- 2:04:14"Hey dude, I was like, "I want to get
- 2:04:16margs on this patio in Austin. I just
- 2:04:20seen a TikTok. This girl telling me how
- 2:04:22good these margaritas were." I was like,
- 2:04:23"I hadn't had a margarita all summer on
- 2:04:24a patio." I was like I was like I didn't
- 2:04:27tell him what was going on, but I was
- 2:04:28like, "You're getting a drink with me on
- 2:04:29a patio." We got there. I sat. We once
- 2:04:32we got the margarita, I'm like, "Dude, I
- 2:04:35got to tell you what just happened." And
- 2:04:37and we we did have a night. We did have
- 2:04:39a night. It was a fun night. But like
- 2:04:42that next morning, I'm at this I was
- 2:04:44still on a high. The next morning I'm at
- 2:04:46a coffee shop and Amit calls me, you
- 2:04:48know, from X. Uh and and I'm like, he's
- 2:04:52like, "What happened?" I was like,
- 2:04:52"Dude, I can't believe it happened."
- 2:04:54He's like, "You're on the live stream."
- 2:04:56Like, "Dude, I'm on." And so we talked
- 2:04:57for like 30 and this is where hit
- 2:04:59the fan, right? This this is where it
- 2:05:00went cuz like this is where I'm like I'm
- 2:05:03on the phone with my buddy on it. Okay.
- 2:05:05So like I'm not like yes it's a live
- 2:05:08stream. I know I'm on his live stream
- 2:05:10but I'm not like worried about saying
- 2:05:12the wrong thing. Someone's going to like
- 2:05:14misinterpret it. I'm just on the phone
- 2:05:16with my buddy telling him about he knows
- 2:05:18how what I do. He knows the time I put
- 2:05:20into my trades, my risk management, all
- 2:05:22this stuff. So like I'm talking very
- 2:05:25casually. I'm having fun, man. I'm at a
- 2:05:28coffee shop. I'm walking around. I 1.2
- 2:05:31Two million people watched that live
- 2:05:33stream and it started this avalanche of
- 2:05:36dude that guy's so irresponsible like
- 2:05:39like what was he doing? He's a
- 2:05:40degenerate and like they don't know me
- 2:05:42cuz at one point that's a lot of people
- 2:05:44a lot of them are hearing me for the
- 2:05:45first time.
- 2:05:47But it was a it was a fun day. I still
- 2:05:50feel good. I still feel good. I still
- 2:05:52feel really good about it. Right. And uh
- 2:05:55I'll tell you man like being an investor
- 2:05:58is a roller coaster. like it. And it's
- 2:06:01I I'm I love the good times, man. I I I
- 2:06:04I love the win. Not it's not for the
- 2:06:06money for me. Like I said, I'm at a
- 2:06:08point where it's not it's never about
- 2:06:10the money cuz my money is oriented
- 2:06:13towards other stuff that that really
- 2:06:16doesn't benefit me. Okay? So, like when
- 2:06:18I do something, I'm happy for the things
- 2:06:20I'll be able to do in the world
- 2:06:22hopefully. But it's about get in the
- 2:06:25win, dude. This is a gota for me. This
- 2:06:28is a game. Like, it's a g it's a game I
- 2:06:30take seriously. It's my job and I want
- 2:06:34to make money to do good things with
- 2:06:35that money for the world, but it's a
- 2:06:38game of chess and like I like it when I
- 2:06:42put the work in and I get it right. Um,
- 2:06:46and even when you get it right,
- 2:06:47sometimes you lose the money because
- 2:06:49there's things out of your control like
- 2:06:50we're saying.
- 2:06:52But I do like it. It's fun for me, man.
- 2:06:56If you can't have fun, dude, like, dude,
- 2:06:59if I can't have fun at this, I've been
- 2:07:01grinding since I was 12 years old. I've
- 2:07:03been working four jobs since all through
- 2:07:05high school, college. Like, I was never
- 2:07:07not working. Multiple jobs. Like, my
- 2:07:11whole life has been grinding, grinding,
- 2:07:14grinding to make it, starting companies,
- 2:07:16failure, failure, success, failure.
- 2:07:19Like, I'm tired. Like, at this point, I
- 2:07:22want to have more fun with my investing.
- 2:07:25And that's why I do podcasts. I like
- 2:07:27talking about it. I like seeing the
- 2:07:28younger investors getting involved. Like
- 2:07:31I want to share with them that the
- 2:07:33success when I have it. Like and it's
- 2:07:35fun being part of a like I said I was
- 2:07:36never part of an investment community.
- 2:07:38Now I'm part of it. You know how cool it
- 2:07:40is that we have like something like 40
- 2:07:42million new retail traders in the US and
- 2:07:45like half of them are on X. I hate that
- 2:07:48they're just talking about the same 10
- 2:07:50stocks all the time. I hate that they're
- 2:07:52doing all the dumb stuff they do, but I
- 2:07:54know they're young and they've got to go
- 2:07:55through their phases. I just love that
- 2:07:58we have this now because like so many
- 2:08:01other,
- 2:08:02you know, hobbies or whatever you want
- 2:08:04to call them, they have their people. I
- 2:08:08sometimes feel like being an investor
- 2:08:11and being on X is like being in a movie.
- 2:08:14It's just like it's a culture. It's like
- 2:08:16it's not just a community. It's like a
- 2:08:18whole subculture of people and they're
- 2:08:21crazy, man. Like, like these
- 2:08:23people, they don't even have a life
- 2:08:24outside of investing. Like I feel
- 2:08:26because now you can invest 24/7. Add
- 2:08:28crypto to that, dude.
- 2:08:31It's It's actually insane. I'm glad that
- 2:08:33that's not the way it was when I was in
- 2:08:35the weeds of investing cuz like I
- 2:08:37actually think it's unhealthy. Like I'm
- 2:08:40I'm actually nervous for a lot of these
- 2:08:41young investors that they are not that
- 2:08:45they're developing bad behavior that
- 2:08:47they're not like living real life for
- 2:08:51themselves because they're so
- 2:08:52obsessively trading 24 hours a day. I'm
- 2:08:55really concerned that if they have
- 2:08:57families, they're like their mind is not
- 2:09:00where their kids are because they feel
- 2:09:02like they have to be in tune with
- 2:09:04investing at all times. I hate that. I
- 2:09:07think the market should be open half the
- 2:09:11time it's open today. I think the market
- 2:09:13should be open like four hours. We can
- 2:09:15get everything done in four hours.
- 2:09:17There's no reason for the market to be
- 2:09:19open from like 9:30 Eastern to 4. That's
- 2:09:23crazy. Most of the action and liquidity
- 2:09:27happen on market open and market close,
- 2:09:30right?
- 2:09:32Let's just condense that. We don't need
- 2:09:34more than four hours.
- 2:09:36We need people doing more research on
- 2:09:40the companies that they want to invest
- 2:09:42in as opposed to watching a screen of
- 2:09:46random people trading all day and just
- 2:09:50trying to pretend that they could game
- 2:09:51that and get in front of it. That's
- 2:09:54unhealthy. That that I don't like. And
- 2:09:56now we're going to make trading 24 hours
- 2:09:58a day. It kind of already is. I would
- 2:10:01rather have us
- 2:10:04make our moves three or four hours
- 2:10:07during the day and then spend the rest
- 2:10:09of your time actually doing the real
- 2:10:12hard work of figuring out where the
- 2:10:14alpha is. Figuring out who is going to
- 2:10:17benefit, who's going to be harmed from
- 2:10:19the world changing in whatever way it's
- 2:10:21changing, whether it's technology or
- 2:10:25culture, behavior, whatever, right? like
- 2:10:27that's that's that's how we should be
- 2:10:30thinking as investors. Instead, it's the
- 2:10:32opposite. But by the way, because it's
- 2:10:34that way, there's opportunity
- 2:10:38for people that don't get caught up in
- 2:10:40that herd behavior and all the noise.
- 2:10:43That's why I'm able to still do this.
- 2:10:45Yeah, there's more investors than there
- 2:10:46ever have been, but they're all doing
- 2:10:48stupid crap, okay? Like all the time. So
- 2:10:51it's like yeah my competition has like
- 2:10:54increased by like 100x but most of that
- 2:10:58is just herd mentality and which by the
- 2:11:01way feeds on itself feeds on itself.
- 2:11:06Okay, I want to get to the envelope here
- 2:11:08and your stock pick, but before we do, a
- 2:11:09couple last things. With AI coming into
- 2:11:11the mix, is that going to kill the edge
- 2:11:14that you have? Meaning, are there going
- 2:11:16to be swarms of AI agents that are doing
- 2:11:19this type of observational research and
- 2:11:24smarter than all humans or all humans
- 2:11:26combined, and there's going to be a lot
- 2:11:27less edge for you. Are you worried about
- 2:11:29that?
- 2:11:30>> I'm not worried about it, but I think
- 2:11:33it's an inevitability.
- 2:11:35I just don't know the timeline.
- 2:11:39The timeline for that could be a few
- 2:11:43years or a lot of years. Like it could
- 2:11:46be 10, 15 years out. So
- 2:11:51I do know we at least have two or three
- 2:11:54or four years or five left that we don't
- 2:11:56need to be concerned about it. That's
- 2:11:58what my gut tells me. So when it
- 2:12:01happens, it happens. I won't I won't be
- 2:12:04impacted by that point. I'll be down to
- 2:12:07doing 15 minutes of I mean at some point
- 2:12:10I got to stop spending half my life
- 2:12:13reading Tik Tok comments, right? To find
- 2:12:15edge in the market. I'm not right. I'm
- 2:12:18I'm getting too old for this. So, but
- 2:12:21yeah, I I do think I do think as an
- 2:12:23investor, it's really important to get
- 2:12:26serious now, the next five years,
- 2:12:29because I don't know how long the window
- 2:12:33is going to stay open for,
- 2:12:36>> right? Yeah. Because and and you're
- 2:12:38already using AI to help inform some of
- 2:12:40your process.
- 2:12:41>> Oh, yeah. Absolutely. I
- 2:12:43>> Okay, someone finishes this episode,
- 2:12:45they have $1,000, right? They're like,
- 2:12:47"Hey, I want to I want to be like Chris,
- 2:12:50right?" What's the first thing they
- 2:12:52should do tomorrow morning? Start
- 2:12:53observing.
- 2:12:55>> Yes. So, I'm not an investment advisor,
- 2:12:56but what I do tell people is that you're
- 2:12:59not in this alone. There are people like
- 2:13:01myself that have been doing this a long
- 2:13:03time. So, you do not have to learn every
- 2:13:06lesson yourself the hard way. You're
- 2:13:09going to learn some the hard way,
- 2:13:11meaning you're going to lose money, but
- 2:13:14find out who the real people are in this
- 2:13:17space.
- 2:13:18Follow them, right? And listen to them.
- 2:13:22I've done thousands and thousands of
- 2:13:24hours of content over the past seven
- 2:13:27years. And
- 2:13:30I mean honestly like if you even watch a
- 2:13:32small fraction of it,
- 2:13:36you probably accelerated your journey by
- 2:13:38a decade. Uh and then there are other
- 2:13:41people that have different thoughts and
- 2:13:43maybe some different strategies.
- 2:13:46Find out who the real people are.
- 2:13:50Listen to them and
- 2:13:53start on your journey right away. Like
- 2:13:54just start. Just start. Don't do
- 2:13:56anything stupid, but start. You need to
- 2:13:59understand the consequences of your
- 2:14:01action. You need to understand
- 2:14:04when you actually have high conviction
- 2:14:06and when you don't because your mind is
- 2:14:08going to play tricks on you as an
- 2:14:10investor and you're going to want to
- 2:14:12believe in something. That's the biggest
- 2:14:16pitfall that I see young investors
- 2:14:17falling into
- 2:14:19is they just want to believe. They
- 2:14:22become obsessive
- 2:14:25about their trade thesis or their stock
- 2:14:29and they just don't want to admit to
- 2:14:31themselves that they were wrong even
- 2:14:33when new information surfaces that
- 2:14:36clearly
- 2:14:38shows them that they were wrong.
- 2:14:39>> Should they start with just investing in
- 2:14:41S&P 500 ETF?
- 2:14:44I you know like I said I I I don't give
- 2:14:45investment advice but what I would say
- 2:14:47is you're generally best off having
- 2:14:52money in the market no matter what that
- 2:14:56means. And so
- 2:14:58I think a fairly conventional
- 2:15:02uh uh method is if you don't know what
- 2:15:06to invest in, just be invested in the
- 2:15:09market, right? And then once you figure
- 2:15:11out what to invest in, you can take some
- 2:15:14money out of that and put it into
- 2:15:15something more concentrated. And
- 2:15:18obviously these low fee ETFs are
- 2:15:20wonderful because they're low fee,
- 2:15:22right? And just by being in the market,
- 2:15:25you're going to win over the long term.
- 2:15:29But I would say
- 2:15:31try to develop it as a hobby. Have fun
- 2:15:33with it. Spend some time not watching
- 2:15:38people that are basically copying and
- 2:15:42pasting the viral thing that they read
- 2:15:4515 minutes ago on X.
- 2:15:49Um, but try to find people that are
- 2:15:52independent thinkers that seem to be
- 2:15:54doing real work. And it's not hard to
- 2:15:57tell. Like when they tweet, when they
- 2:15:59put out reports, you're like, "Wow, this
- 2:16:01is like they're really indeed. Those are
- 2:16:04the people that you want to follow
- 2:16:06because
- 2:16:08they're the anomaly."
- 2:16:10I'm one of them, okay? But there are
- 2:16:12many others. And I even get great ideas
- 2:16:17from some of these other people because
- 2:16:20they're doing the hard work. Like there
- 2:16:21are some of them that are doing such
- 2:16:23hard work on the AI trade. They're going
- 2:16:28to China. They're visiting factories.
- 2:16:30Like they're talking to investors, you
- 2:16:33know, in China in Korea. They're
- 2:16:34checking supply chain.
- 2:16:37That's who you want to listen to.
- 2:16:39uh you want if like if you're trading
- 2:16:42the big AI stocks and you're trying to
- 2:16:44figure out are we in a bubble is this
- 2:16:47real is this going to like implode any
- 2:16:49minute or is there actual real durable
- 2:16:53demand
- 2:16:54for this compute because at the end
- 2:16:57client meaning the actual companies that
- 2:17:00are using AI to change their businesses
- 2:17:03they are seeing real value so that's the
- 2:17:06question you have to ask how are you
- 2:17:08going to answer that question. Who has
- 2:17:10the answer? The guy that has the answer
- 2:17:12or the woman that has the answer is
- 2:17:15probably the person who's working at
- 2:17:16that company. And there's tens of
- 2:17:20thousands of people that work at that
- 2:17:21company. You could probably find a few
- 2:17:23of them that like to share their ideas
- 2:17:26on X or maybe even on YouTube. So find
- 2:17:30them. And there's like dozens and dozens
- 2:17:32of those companies, right? There's
- 2:17:34hundred thousands of them, right? So go
- 2:17:37to the source of the people that
- 2:17:39actually have the information that can
- 2:17:42tell you what you need to know to gain
- 2:17:45confidence in putting your money behind
- 2:17:48a thesis. In this case, artificial
- 2:17:51intelligence being real
- 2:17:54demand for this going to increase year
- 2:17:57over year over year. And then you know
- 2:18:00the degree to which compute is going to
- 2:18:03remain scarce or not. That's a whole
- 2:18:05another question, right? You have to
- 2:18:07figure out is a Chinese open model going
- 2:18:10to eliminate the need for compute or
- 2:18:13not. I'm at the conclusion that it
- 2:18:16won't. But you have to like read a lot
- 2:18:19of really smart people talking about
- 2:18:21that issue until you can come up with
- 2:18:24your own decision if compute will remain
- 2:18:27scarce or not going forward. But if you
- 2:18:30believe compute will remain scarce and
- 2:18:32the demand for compute is going to
- 2:18:34continue to grow, then the AI trade
- 2:18:37becomes really interesting to you and
- 2:18:40you get a lot more conviction to take
- 2:18:42your money out of the broad market and
- 2:18:47put it into companies or a sector that
- 2:18:50is likely to grow quicker than the broad
- 2:18:52market, right? That for the last few
- 2:18:54years has accounted for all the growth
- 2:18:56broad market. But then remember there's
- 2:18:58other trades as well like the the AI
- 2:19:00efficiency wave that I talked about
- 2:19:02where if that's correct the broad market
- 2:19:04will benefit from it. But why invest in
- 2:19:07the broad market if you already know
- 2:19:08that the companies that will benefit
- 2:19:10most are the ones with the biggest
- 2:19:11distribution modes. Right? So let's find
- 2:19:13the ones with the biggest distribution
- 2:19:14modes and invest maybe just in them.
- 2:19:18That's what I'm doing with Amazon
- 2:19:19because I think Amazon has the biggest
- 2:19:20distribution mode. Do
- 2:19:21>> you have 70% of your portfolio in Amazon
- 2:19:23right now?
- 2:19:23>> Not anymore because I took off a lot of
- 2:19:25that leverage. Right. So, I'm still
- 2:19:28heavily invested in Amazon and I have
- 2:19:31some leverage. It it it it fluctuates.
- 2:19:36Um,
- 2:19:37but it's still like one of my favorite
- 2:19:40positions. I'm still heavily invested in
- 2:19:43Bloom Energy, which I believe is the
- 2:19:45quickest way to provide energy to the
- 2:19:48data centers that are in uh a supply
- 2:19:52glut of energy, right? Especially now
- 2:19:54that everyone says bring your own
- 2:19:55energy. we can let you tap into the
- 2:19:57grid. Uh it's a misunderstood company.
- 2:20:00It's volatile, but it's still a big
- 2:20:02holding of mine as well. Um I'm still a
- 2:20:05big believer in Robin Hood. I think that
- 2:20:08it's the best managed financial
- 2:20:10institution in the world and I think
- 2:20:13that Robin Hood will has a good shot at
- 2:20:16becoming the largest financial
- 2:20:17institution in the world in the next 20
- 2:20:18years.
- 2:20:20And it's not a company I even think
- 2:20:22about every day. It's just one that I
- 2:20:25know is misunderstood.
- 2:20:27So, but everyone has to come up with
- 2:20:29their own conviction because if you
- 2:20:33don't, when things go wrong, and they
- 2:20:36always do for short periods of time,
- 2:20:38whether it's Amazon, Bloom Energy, Robin
- 2:20:40Hood, the three I just talked about,
- 2:20:42there will be a moment in time when
- 2:20:44things go terribly wrong, whether
- 2:20:46they're actually going wrong or whether
- 2:20:48the market thinks they're going wrong,
- 2:20:50when these stocks are going to get hit.
- 2:20:52you're going to freak out and be like,
- 2:20:54"I was wrong. I must have been wrong
- 2:20:56because now the stocks are getting hit."
- 2:20:57And then you sell your position and
- 2:20:59then, you know, days to a few weeks
- 2:21:01later, they pop back up. You're like,
- 2:21:02"Oh no, I sold when it was down. Now I
- 2:21:05got to buy back." And that's how you
- 2:21:07lose a lot of money in the market
- 2:21:09because you never did the work to begin
- 2:21:11with. You were just following some guy
- 2:21:12like me and then when it didn't go well,
- 2:21:17you didn't even know what you were
- 2:21:18invested or why you were invested in it.
- 2:21:20So, you didn't know whether to to hold
- 2:21:22or sell, and you made a bad decision.
- 2:21:24You probably make a lot of bad decisions
- 2:21:25when you don't have conviction.
- 2:21:27>> Yeah. All right. Last question before
- 2:21:28you open that envelope, which is
- 2:21:31>> tell me a little bit about your
- 2:21:32foundation. Tell me a little bit about
- 2:21:34the what you're building with the
- 2:21:36podcast, with the studio, because I want
- 2:21:38to know about a little bit more about
- 2:21:39your motivation, what you're kind of
- 2:21:40what you have planned for in the future.
- 2:21:42>> You know, on the foundation,
- 2:21:45I I don't overthink it. Like I said, I
- 2:21:47think it's it's something I've been
- 2:21:48thinking about. I've been wanting to do
- 2:21:49my entire life and I'm finally in a
- 2:21:51position to do it is to like start doing
- 2:21:53things for others. And my family were
- 2:21:56really passionate about
- 2:21:59uh
- 2:22:01elder care, about pediatric care, uh
- 2:22:04about animal welfare. So, there's some
- 2:22:08areas that we just want to give back
- 2:22:09into. So, why not give back big? Uh, I'm
- 2:22:12really fortunate that I've been able to
- 2:22:14form really close relationships with
- 2:22:16some philanthropies I really believe in.
- 2:22:19They're doing good, like really
- 2:22:21efficient work, and I just want to give
- 2:22:23them as much money as possible. I had a
- 2:22:26lot a really special opportunity this
- 2:22:29last year. Uh, Mr. Beast invited me to
- 2:22:33fly to Africa to go to Ghana with him
- 2:22:36and his uh, beast philanthropy. And I
- 2:22:39got to spend time on the cacao farms
- 2:22:42really learning about child labor and
- 2:22:45how big of a problem it was globally.
- 2:22:48Spent a tremendous amount of time with
- 2:22:50his team. And now I'm hellbent on like
- 2:22:55joining forces with them to end child
- 2:22:57labor globally because they have this
- 2:22:59master plan which is wildly
- 2:23:03strategic unlike anything anyone's ever
- 2:23:06tried to do before. I know a lot of
- 2:23:09people don't fully appreciate a lot of
- 2:23:11the stuff that that that Jimmy's trying
- 2:23:13to do in the world, but I have never
- 2:23:16believed in a team more than this team
- 2:23:18in terms of their capabilities
- 2:23:21and what they can achieve on a global
- 2:23:24level. So, I'm like, I need to give them
- 2:23:26a lot more money, too. So,
- 2:23:29I'm like, I think I'm in a position to
- 2:23:31generate a lot of capital, and I want to
- 2:23:33generate it for good causes. That's all.
- 2:23:35It's it's just very simple. AI is making
- 2:23:38intelligence abundant like we know that
- 2:23:40now right like that that's obvious uh
- 2:23:44trust uh one's likability and
- 2:23:47relationships
- 2:23:49will always be scarce like AI will not
- 2:23:53make a dent in any of those things
- 2:23:56scarcity is where the value is always
- 2:23:58going to go so I think it's really
- 2:24:01important for young people to truly
- 2:24:04understand
- 2:24:06that more than anything else, they need
- 2:24:08to build authentic relationships in
- 2:24:11their life and that needs to be priority
- 2:24:14number one for them. I think it's what's
- 2:24:16going to ultimately get them into every
- 2:24:19room that they want to be in. Whether
- 2:24:22it's the job they want to get, whether
- 2:24:25it's the pitch meeting, they're starting
- 2:24:27a company.
- 2:24:29Uh I mean, think about it. You're you're
- 2:24:32interviewing two people and they're
- 2:24:33identical
- 2:24:35in terms of skill set. One of them you
- 2:24:38don't know. Uh one of them you know you
- 2:24:42know they're a likable person, right?
- 2:24:45You trust that person because there's
- 2:24:46someone that is in your network, right?
- 2:24:50Someone in your network has told you,
- 2:24:52"Hey, I've known this person for years.
- 2:24:54They're really trustworthy. I love them.
- 2:24:56They're likable." That's a person you
- 2:24:58want at your company, right? who's going
- 2:25:00to have the edge. This is again very
- 2:25:02simple stuff. Uh in a world where
- 2:25:05everything else seems to get
- 2:25:06democratized, meaning I just need
- 2:25:08someone to learn these things, to help
- 2:25:10work with our AI to accomplish these
- 2:25:12things. And it's extremely difficult to
- 2:25:14assess if that person's better than that
- 2:25:17person at doing that. It will always
- 2:25:19fall back to these intangibles, right?
- 2:25:22And the only way that you can show that
- 2:25:25you have those
- 2:25:28uh traits
- 2:25:30is by having authentic relationships
- 2:25:32with people that can stand up for you
- 2:25:34and say, "Hey, I vouch for this person."
- 2:25:37And that's just extremely important. Um
- 2:25:41I I think even more important
- 2:25:45is the concept of being a creator. Okay,
- 2:25:50being a creator is not about creating
- 2:25:53content. Okay, it is for some people.
- 2:25:56Okay, but like when I talk about being a
- 2:25:58creator, like everyone, every human
- 2:26:02needs to be a creator. Creating is
- 2:26:04basically just a machine for scaling
- 2:26:08familiarity, right? For scaling
- 2:26:12likability and scaling trust. So like
- 2:26:15it's a way to have infinite scale around
- 2:26:19those scarce traits that you can also
- 2:26:22build through authentic relationships,
- 2:26:24but the only way to actually scale them
- 2:26:26in a broad way is through your content.
- 2:26:30And so it's crazy to me to be a young
- 2:26:32person right now and not get out there
- 2:26:35and start creating content because it
- 2:26:37doesn't have to be a job. It doesn't
- 2:26:38have to be for the money.
- 2:26:41It's because it's the literally the only
- 2:26:43way that you can put yourself out there
- 2:26:46and prove that you are a likable person.
- 2:26:50You're a trustworthy person. You start
- 2:26:51developing these parasocial
- 2:26:53relationships with other humans. And it
- 2:26:55ultimately will inevitably always open
- 2:26:58up doors for you in life. I have not met
- 2:27:01a single content creator ever. And I've
- 2:27:04been talking to content creators and
- 2:27:05been friends with them for a decade now
- 2:27:07that hasn't said that content creation
- 2:27:09has done more for them than anything
- 2:27:12else in life beyond any amount of money
- 2:27:14they made from the content. Has nothing
- 2:27:15to do with the money they made just in
- 2:27:17terms of connectivity, opening doors,
- 2:27:21initiating relationships with people. So
- 2:27:24that to me is the most important thing
- 2:27:26in the world. I also think in an AI
- 2:27:29world, there's a massive thirst for like
- 2:27:33the real raw human voice, like people
- 2:27:37that are more there's some people that
- 2:27:39are more human than others. Okay, we
- 2:27:41know that. So, I have this passion for
- 2:27:46kind of getting more into the content
- 2:27:48game. I'm opening up a studio in Austin
- 2:27:50and you know we found a content creator
- 2:27:54who we believe has like the most
- 2:27:59human
- 2:28:01truly authentic transparent
- 2:28:04voice that is
- 2:28:07relatable
- 2:28:08and positive, right? That could really
- 2:28:13create positive change. and we're going
- 2:28:17to try to expand this person's platform
- 2:28:19through podcasting. Uh, you know, part
- 2:28:22of the issue with content creators are
- 2:28:24there are so many that are so amazing,
- 2:28:26but they're usually solo creators. and
- 2:28:29taking that leap from being a solo
- 2:28:32creator to a repeatable, durable
- 2:28:37podcaster where you're actually
- 2:28:40meaningfully putting out regular content
- 2:28:42into the world on a regular basis as
- 2:28:45opposed to being so fragmented and
- 2:28:48reliant upon whatever Tik Tok you're
- 2:28:50doing that day and what the algorithm
- 2:28:52wants to show.
- 2:28:54It's there's a lot of friction involved
- 2:28:56with that. There's cameras, right?
- 2:28:59There's equipment, there's lighting,
- 2:29:02there's operators, there's editing,
- 2:29:05there's clipping, there's studios,
- 2:29:07there's money involved. Uh, a lot of
- 2:29:11young women in particular are afraid of
- 2:29:15that friction and they're afraid of the
- 2:29:17financial risk that comes with trying to
- 2:29:19launch a podcast. So, we thought, hey,
- 2:29:22let's find the most talented woman
- 2:29:24creator we can who has not yet moved
- 2:29:28into the podcast genre and try to do
- 2:29:31something really special. So, that's
- 2:29:32what we're doing in Austin. It's a
- 2:29:34really fun thing. I'm also doing a
- 2:29:36spin-off of my show, Dumb Money Live.
- 2:29:38That is going to be the funnest thing
- 2:29:40I've ever done in my life for myself.
- 2:29:43I'm so ecstatic about it that I haven't
- 2:29:46talked about like no one really knows
- 2:29:47except my my bis my YouTube partners. Um
- 2:29:51but I just realized that like I'm having
- 2:29:54more fun with content than I even have
- 2:29:56with investing. It's the only thing
- 2:29:58where I've ever like experienced more
- 2:30:01joy than the joy of like searching for
- 2:30:04gold with the next big investment and
- 2:30:08then hitting it. You know what I'm
- 2:30:09saying? like and I think the reason why
- 2:30:12is because I'm at a point in my life
- 2:30:14where I realize that the most fulfilling
- 2:30:17joyful thing is connections with people
- 2:30:20and so content as I said allows you to
- 2:30:22connect with more people more often and
- 2:30:26so I just want to go deeper into a world
- 2:30:28that gives something back to me and
- 2:30:32where also I can give something to other
- 2:30:34is a spin-off of Dumb Money where you're
- 2:30:35going to have
- 2:30:36>> it's a spin-off of Dumb Money but it is
- 2:30:38so different than dumb money. This is
- 2:30:40has nothing to do with investments.
- 2:30:43>> I'll just
- 2:30:44>> It's you in your kitchen,
- 2:30:46>> dude. I'm telling you, [laughter]
- 2:30:48I could be wrong, but if we execute on
- 2:30:52this show, it's going to be so fun. Uh
- 2:30:56it's just going to be so fun. Like for
- 2:30:58me, I'm ready to do something a little
- 2:30:59more fun and I can't wait. So like you
- 2:31:03you know, like I'm all about like
- 2:31:05culture. Uh, and I think this like hits
- 2:31:09youth culture especially right where it
- 2:31:12is right now. And it's something that no
- 2:31:14one has exposed before in terms of
- 2:31:16culture. And I want this show to expose
- 2:31:19it. I I I'll just leave it at that.
- 2:31:21>> See it? Text it to me when you have. Is
- 2:31:23it have anything to do with shoes?
- 2:31:25>> It has nothing to do with shoes.
- 2:31:27[laughter] As you know, like like this
- 2:31:29is what's so crazy. I spent five almost
- 2:31:31five years building Collecton, the
- 2:31:32world's largest Pokemon conference. We
- 2:31:34sold it a few months ago to Ari Emanuel
- 2:31:36and it's like was the biggest exit I've
- 2:31:38ever had in my life. I don't collect
- 2:31:40Pokemon cards. [laughter] I spent years
- 2:31:43at Pokemon conferences with hundreds of
- 2:31:45thousands of people hanging out with
- 2:31:47Pokemon collectors and I'm like, dude,
- 2:31:49this is crazy. I enjoy it cuz I thought
- 2:31:53the people were awesome, but the
- 2:31:55underlying Pokemon, it was after my
- 2:31:58youth, right? So, like I never got into
- 2:32:00Pokemon. This is something I'm gonna
- 2:32:03have fun with. I'll just I'll just gonna
- 2:32:04leave it at that.
- 2:32:05>> I love it. I love it. Okay, I want to
- 2:32:07unveil the stock we have in this
- 2:32:09envelope. Demetri, can you please pull
- 2:32:10this out? Okay, so this is a stock that
- 2:32:13it's a secret stock you haven't talked
- 2:32:15about before publicly. You're watching
- 2:32:17it right now. You haven't put the
- 2:32:18position on yet, but this is the the
- 2:32:21type of stock that you're observing.
- 2:32:23You're in the observation phase and
- 2:32:25you're doing your homework on and you
- 2:32:26may put a position on. This is the type
- 2:32:28of investment where the position
- 2:32:30fluctuates
- 2:32:32day by day and I could be out of it
- 2:32:35completely and then short the stock
- 2:32:39a minute after I'm long the stock,
- 2:32:40right? Depending on new information
- 2:32:42coming to light because the the
- 2:32:43information is coming quick, right? It's
- 2:32:45a fun one. It's a fun one because a lot
- 2:32:49of my background is trading video games
- 2:32:54and video game console makers back from
- 2:32:57the very earliest days of consoles and
- 2:33:00video games. It's some of my biggest
- 2:33:02trades.
- 2:33:02>> All right, and let's and let's so let's
- 2:33:03unveil it. So, this is the one stock
- 2:33:05that we're talking about now that you
- 2:33:07haven't talked about publicly. You put a
- 2:33:08small position on, but you're we're
- 2:33:10going to see what happens. And the stock
- 2:33:11is Take 2 Interactive. The ticker is
- 2:33:14TTWO.
- 2:33:15>> That's right. Tell me about it. Tell me
- 2:33:17about the thesis there.
- 2:33:18>> Everybody knows Grand Theft Auto GTA 6.
- 2:33:22We've been waiting 13 years. It's maybe
- 2:33:25the biggest
- 2:33:27release of an entertainment product in
- 2:33:29human history. It's one of the biggest
- 2:33:33cultural releases that we will see in
- 2:33:35our lifetime. It's huge. Basically,
- 2:33:38every guy is going to be doing nothing
- 2:33:41but playing this game from November
- 2:33:43through the end of the year. Okay. So,
- 2:33:46the big question is, cuz Take 2 has like
- 2:33:49the entire company hinging on the
- 2:33:51success or failure of this game, is it
- 2:33:54priced in? And where's the new
- 2:33:56information that's going to make us want
- 2:33:57to own it or sell it?
- 2:34:00The game is priced in. Okay, Grand Theft
- 2:34:04Auto 6 is fully priced in. What is not
- 2:34:07priced in is the ultimate
- 2:34:14success or failure of the game. Okay?
- 2:34:18Because the game
- 2:34:20can do exceptionally well, better than
- 2:34:23anyone ever thought it would be. And
- 2:34:25what I mean by that is if the game play
- 2:34:28is truly amazing, if they deliver a
- 2:34:34living world, right? If they truly can
- 2:34:37deliver a immersive living world that
- 2:34:39you never want to leave, the
- 2:34:41modernization opportunities within that
- 2:34:44world will be endless. That is not
- 2:34:47priced in yet. Nor do we know that that
- 2:34:50will be the world that they're creating.
- 2:34:54If they don't deliver that world,
- 2:34:58it's stock is probably too high.
- 2:35:02>> So this is like a little bit of a binary
- 2:35:04event. is this is where you learn by
- 2:35:06going on Tik Tok starting to listen to
- 2:35:08all these people talking about it and
- 2:35:09they're and all these people are maybe
- 2:35:10saying, "Oh, I'm buying this in the app.
- 2:35:12I'm buying this in the app."
- 2:35:13>> So, a lot of things are happening like
- 2:35:14they're about to release the first
- 2:35:16gameplay footage in a Netflix special,
- 2:35:19which is just crazy in itself, right?
- 2:35:21Like that's about to happen. Uh, but
- 2:35:23there was a huge leak this last week of
- 2:35:26gameplay. So, there was a hacker who
- 2:35:28hacked into the game, which is
- 2:35:29unprecedented
- 2:35:31and is leaking footage every day. Now,
- 2:35:37the stock got hit on that, but some
- 2:35:39people can say that it's actually
- 2:35:41benefiting the game because it's driving
- 2:35:43a tremendous amount of conversation,
- 2:35:44hype. I don't really care about that one
- 2:35:47way or the other. But I care about, and
- 2:35:50by the way, the reason why he hacked the
- 2:35:52game is because this is one of the first
- 2:35:55big big games to be released only
- 2:35:58through digital, meaning there's no hard
- 2:36:00copy of the game that you can actually
- 2:36:04buy and hold, right? So, you got to
- 2:36:05digitally download it.
- 2:36:07So, what I care about is do people like
- 2:36:12what they're seeing in these in this
- 2:36:14release footage or not? So, I've been
- 2:36:16obsessive reading through every single
- 2:36:18comment of a normal person, a normal
- 2:36:21gamer, not an investor in take two. I
- 2:36:23don't care about those guys. I'm only
- 2:36:25looking at people that are just saying,
- 2:36:27"I love it or hate it." And the
- 2:36:30consensus has been positive.
- 2:36:32>> They love it.
- 2:36:33>> Based on what they can see, they tend to
- 2:36:35love it. But, but it's not clear yet.
- 2:36:37It's not clear. Okay.
- 2:36:39>> Because they're just seeing screenshots.
- 2:36:40They're not playing it yet. It's it's
- 2:36:41it's more Well, they're watching
- 2:36:44>> Oh, it's a video.
- 2:36:45>> This guy play it. Yeah. Oh, really?
- 2:36:46Okay.
- 2:36:46>> So So there's more love than hate.
- 2:36:49>> So which is why I opened my position as
- 2:36:51a long position. But again, as more
- 2:36:54footage comes out, I could change. I can
- 2:36:57shift. I can I can I can start to sell
- 2:36:59off my position. I could add to my
- 2:37:01position. It's totally dependent on how
- 2:37:04the information shifts every hour of
- 2:37:06every day from now until the game
- 2:37:09ultimately comes out because that's all
- 2:37:12that matters to me. But this is the type
- 2:37:14of social orb trade that I love because
- 2:37:16there's a lot of noise, a lot of noise,
- 2:37:18but I know that the only thing that
- 2:37:20actually matters is gameplay. And I'm
- 2:37:23willing to go in deeper on take two if
- 2:37:27the game play materializes as a world
- 2:37:30that people don't want to leave. And if
- 2:37:33it doesn't materialize as that, I'm out.
- 2:37:36And maybe shorting the stock. So, so, so
- 2:37:38we're just going to have to wait and
- 2:37:39see.
- 2:37:40>> But yeah, this is a this is a big
- 2:37:41moment. And it's nostalgic for me
- 2:37:44because I traded
- 2:37:46I traded GTA 13 years ago. Okay. Like I
- 2:37:50like I I traded Take Two. I traded Take
- 2:37:53Two on every release. So, like I was a
- 2:37:56big trader in Take Two back before
- 2:37:58anybody cared about this stuff. So, it's
- 2:38:01pretty nostalgic for me. I mean, one of
- 2:38:03my biggest trades ever is tra, you know,
- 2:38:05I had 100% of my brokerage account in a
- 2:38:08in a foreign ADR of Nintendo stock cuz
- 2:38:11it didn't trade in the US exchange when
- 2:38:12they released the uh the Wii console for
- 2:38:16the first time. So, because I
- 2:38:19experienced it with my own hands, the
- 2:38:21same same way people experienced Tesla
- 2:38:23for the first time. I was one of the
- 2:38:25very few people that went to the E3
- 2:38:27conference that wasn't like a gaming
- 2:38:28person and actually experienced it. I
- 2:38:31was like, "No, no, no. People are
- 2:38:32underestimating this console. This is
- 2:38:34this is kind of a game changer." So,
- 2:38:36like I I love this stuff. It's just it's
- 2:38:39fun for me. That's why I used to trade
- 2:38:41movie releases and all. It's it's just
- 2:38:43it's the fun side of investing. Yeah,
- 2:38:47and
- 2:38:47>> it's part of the culture.
- 2:38:49>> Chris, thank you so much for coming on
- 2:38:50Dakota Genius.
- 2:38:51>> Well, thanks for having me. This this
- 2:38:53has been fun.
- 2:38:54>> The whole reason I started Dakota Genius
- 2:38:56was to learn from extraordinary people
- 2:38:58and give back by sharing these
- 2:38:59conversations with you. So, if you've
- 2:39:01got something from this, anything at
- 2:39:03all, please do me a favor, hit like,
- 2:39:05subscribe, and tell me in the comments
- 2:39:07what stuck with you. And most
- 2:39:09importantly, share this with someone who
- 2:39:11could benefit from it. Thank you so much
- 2:39:13for spending your time with me. I don't
- 2:39:14take it for granted.
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