【ビットコイン】8万ドルで何が起きてる？「売られているだけじゃない」市場の異変を徹底解説 — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hello. I'm Gafetote, a salaryman
2. 0:03investor. Bitcoin is showing some quite
3. 0:06concerning movements today. After
4. 0:10falling to around $ 80,000, BTC has
5. 0:12seen some buying, but it remains heavy
6. 0:15on the upside. Checking the news today,
7. 0:20individual investors are moving their
8. 0:22BTC into exchanges. On the other hand,
9. 0:25whale deposits are decreasing.
10. 0:27Furthermore, we are seeing complex
11. 0:29movements, such as the unwinding of
12. 0:31leverage in Ethereum. There is even
13. 0:36news that encrypted messages have been
14. 0:38written onto the Bitcoin blockchain for
15. 0:39three weeks. Also, regarding iPhone
16. 0:45attacks targeting cryptocurrency, over
17. 0:471,500 related fake sites have been
18. 0:49identified. At first glance, these seem
19. 0:54like unrelated news, but looking at
20. 0:56them together reveals whether the
21. 0:57current crypto market is simply being
22. 0:59sold off. Today, I would like to
23. 1:06organize what is happening with BTC and
24. 1:08what the $ 80,000 level means for it,
25. 1:10by connecting these five news items. We
26. 1:15will cover these five points today.
27. 1:19First, we'll check the current BTC
28. 1:21price, then look at the movements of
29. 1:23retail investors and whales, Ethereum
30. 1:25leverage, unusual activity on the BTC
31. 1:27network, and the recent cyberattacks.
32. 1:33Finally, I will summarize how we should
33. 1:35think about BTC right now. Let's first
34. 1:38take a look at the current BTC chart.
35. 1:42BTC dropped to around $ 80,000 in
36. 1:44mid-October and has since rebounded,
37. 1:46but it remains in a very unstable
38. 1:48position, centered in the low $ 80,000
39. 1:51range. What's important here is the
40. 1:55price zone pointed out by Glassnode.
41. 1:58CoinPost reports this under the
42. 2:00headline: "Bitcoin rebounds near ETF
43. 2:02firms 'acquisition cost after falling
44. 2:04to $ 80,000: Glassnode." According to
45. 2:08Glassnode, the average acquisition
46. 2:10price for US spot Bitcoin ETFs is
47. 2:12around $ 81,500. And the estimated
48. 2:16average acquisition price for Bitcoin
49. 2:18treasury companies is about $ 80,200.
50. 2:21In other words, when it dropped to
51. 2:23around $ 80,000 this time, it's
52. 2:25analyzed that buying came in near the
53. 2:27acquisition prices of these investors
54. 2:28and companies. On the other hand, to
55. 2:32the upside, sell orders and liquidation
56. 2:34clusters are concentrated around the $
57. 2:3785,000 to $ 87,500 range. Furthermore,
58. 2:40the average acquisition price for
59. 2:42investors who bought 6 to 12 months ago
60. 2:45is about $ 86,700. If we can clearly
61. 2:48break above this on a daily closing
62. 2:50price basis, those holding unrealized
63. 2:52losses will return to unrealized gains
64. 2:54again. So, looking at BTC right now,
65. 2:56the $ 80,000 level is being recognized
66. 2:58as a support level. But I think there
67. 3:01is a resistance ceiling in the $ 85,000
68. 3:04to $ 87,000 range. After all, $ 80,000
69. 3:06is a very important pivot point, isn't
70. 3:09it? It means the average acquisition
71. 3:10price for Bitcoin spot ETFs and the
72. 3:12average acquisition price for Bitcoin
73. 3:14treasury companies are quite close to
74. 3:15each other. The question is how long
75. 3:17this underlying support can continue.
76. 3:20CoinPost reports that retail Bitcoin
77. 3:22deposits to Binance are at a six-month
78. 3:24high. It's headlined as "Whales are the
79. 3:27source of inflows," according to
80. 3:29analysts. This is quite interesting,
81. 3:31actually. According to CryptoQuant
82. 3:35analysts, the 30-day cumulative BTC
83. 3:37deposit to Binance by retail investors
84. 3:39reached $ 10.75 billion, the highest
85. 3:41level in about six months. On the other
86. 3:46hand, whale deposits have decreased
87. 3:48from $ 5.9 billion to $ 3.8 billion
88. 3:50over two months. This means that BTC
89. 3:53deposits to exchanges by retail
90. 3:55investors are increasing. At the same
91. 3:58time, Bitcoin deposits to exchanges by
92. 4:00whales are decreasing. What we want to
93. 4:03note here is that just because it's
94. 4:04deposited to an exchange, it doesn't
95. 4:06necessarily mean it will be sold. There
96. 4:08are reasons for moving BTC to an
97. 4:10exchange other than selling. There are
98. 4:12various reasons, such as changes in
99. 4:14custody methods or using it as
100. 4:15collateral. So, it's too early to
101. 4:17conclude just from this that retail
102. 4:18investors have started selling in large
103. 4:20quantities. But at the very least, in
104. 4:22the current market, the movements of
105. 4:24retail investors are becoming more
106. 4:25noticeable than before. On the other
107. 4:27hand, whale deposits are decreasing.
108. 4:29This difference in movement based on
109. 4:30investor type is a point I want to keep
110. 4:32watching going forward. Caffè Latte
111. 4:38had a gut feeling looking at this news:
112. 4:40perhaps seeing reports of Bitcoin or
113. 4:42other cryptocurrencies being stolen
114. 4:44from hardware wallets, people might be
115. 4:46worried about their own wallets and are
116. 4:48moving them to exchanges for now, since
117. 4:49exchanges are more likely to provide
118. 4:51some level of compensation if they get
119. 4:53hacked. So, from that perspective, even
120. 5:01if they don't intend to sell, some
121. 5:02people who feel uneasy about keeping
122. 5:04assets in their own hands—like on a
123. 5:06Ledger Nano S or other hardware wallet
124. 5:08—might be sending their Bitcoin to
125. 5:10exchanges. I thought that might be
126. 5:13happening for some. What do you think?
127. 5:16Or perhaps it's a situation where
128. 5:18foolish retail investors are selling,
129. 5:19and smart whales are currently buying
130. 5:21it all up. Well, we don't know what
131. 5:24will actually happen. And it's not just
132. 5:26BTC. CoinPost reports with the headline
133. 5:28, "Ethereum leverage unwinding
134. 5:30continues, open interest shrinks to $
135. 5:3211.5 billion, says analyst." According
136. 5:35to a CryptoQuant analyst, total open
137. 5:37interest for Ethereum futures across
138. 5:39all exchanges has shrunk to $ 11.5
139. 5:41billion. It is said that the largest
140. 5:43exchange, Binance, saw a decrease of
141. 5:46about 20%in one month. Simply put, open
142. 5:48interest is the size of the positions
143. 5:50remaining in the futures market that
144. 5:51have not yet been settled. The fact
145. 5:54that this is decreasing suggests that
146. 5:56positions using leverage are likely
147. 5:58being significantly cleared out of the
148. 5:59market. And here is the interesting
149. 6:04part: according to CryptoQuant, when a
150. 6:06similar deleveraging occurred in July,
151. 6:09Ethereum prices rebounded by as much as
152. 6:1132%. Of course, that doesn’t mean it
153. 6:15will rise by 32%this time as well. We
154. 6:17absolutely need to consider these
155. 6:18separately. However, positions have
156. 6:20been cleared out after a period of high
157. 6:22leverage buildup. This is an important
158. 6:24change to keep in mind when looking at
159. 6:25the market moving forward. When the
160. 6:28market rises, it can be healthier for
161. 6:30new capital to flow in after positions
162. 6:32have been cleared, rather than when
163. 6:34leverage is excessively piled up.
164. 6:37Let’s change our perspective slightly
165. 6:39here. CoinPost reports on some unusual
166. 6:41news: encrypted text has been
167. 6:43continuously written onto the Bitcoin
168. 6:45blockchain for three weeks, according
169. 6:47to GALSHI Digital Analysis. It reports
170. 6:51that GALSHI Research analyzed the
171. 6:53encrypted text being written to the
172. 6:55Bitcoin blockchain every day. At this
173. 6:58point, it is pointed out that this
174. 7:00might just be a test of a tool. This in
175. 7:02itself is not necessarily a factor that
176. 7:04will drive up the BTC price. However,
177. 7:08what I want to note here is that the
178. 7:10Bitcoin blockchain is being used for
179. 7:12various data and mechanisms, not just
180. 7:13for sending BTC. I want to keep an eye
181. 7:18on these movements in the long term,
182. 7:19such as who is doing what on the
183. 7:21Bitcoin network. And one more thing—
184. 7:24this isn't directly related to price,
185. 7:26but if you're thinking about crypto for
186. 7:28the long term, it's news you can't
187. 7:30ignore. CoinPost reports under the
188. 7:34headline: "SlowMist: 1,500 fake sites
189. 7:36linked to iPhone attacks targeting
190. 7:38crypto." According to SlowMist, over
191. 7:431,500 phishing sites related to "Dark
192. 7:45Sword," an attack tool exploiting iOS
193. 7:48vulnerabilities, have been identified.
194. 7:52These types of attacks could
195. 7:53potentially target wallet secrets or
196. 7:55information stored on your device. In
197. 7:59other words, as the crypto asset market
198. 8:01matures, the issue of how to safely
199. 8:03manage your own assets becomes even
200. 8:05more important. Uh, when prices rise,
201. 8:07attention increases as well. And when
202. 8:09attention increases, naturally, the
203. 8:11assets being targeted also grow. So, as
204. 8:13a long-term investor, I believe we need
205. 8:15to look at the market's maturity,
206. 8:17including not just price but also
207. 8:19custody security. Well, it's not just
208. 8:21iPhones, but Androids too—
209. 8:23cryptocurrency is really being targeted
210. 8:25in that regard. There have been stories
211. 8:30about brokerage firms or FX platforms
212. 8:31getting hacked, so I think we really
213. 8:33need a sense of crisis regarding
214. 8:35security and need to raise our
215. 8:36awareness once again. Well, at the very
216. 8:41least, there’s Google Authenticator,
217. 8:43or two-factor authentication. I believe
218. 8:46this is something that absolutely must
219. 8:47be done. Let me summarize what we've
220. 8:49covered so far. If you look at the
221. 8:51current market simply as BTC going down
222. 8:53, it seems like a fairly
223. 8:54straightforward story. But in reality,
224. 8:56buying is coming in around the $ 80,000
225. 8:58level. Retail investor deposits into
226. 9:00exchanges are increasing. Meanwhile,
227. 9:02deposits from whales are decreasing.
228. 9:04And on Ethereum, leverage is being
229. 9:06unwound. In other words, you could also
230. 9:08see it as market participants'
231. 9:10positions shifting significantly. This
232. 9:12is what I'm most concerned about right
233. 9:14now. Current BTC isn't just weak
234. 9:17because it's falling; buying is coming
235. 9:19in near $ 80,000. But it's in a state
236. 9:22where there is selling pressure around
237. 9:24the $ 85,000 to $ 87,000 range. So, we
238. 9:26can't say it has returned to an uptrend
239. 9:29, nor can we say it has completely
240. 9:30collapsed. It really feels like a
241. 9:32tug-of-war before a clear direction
242. 9:34emerges. And personally, because it's
243. 9:36this period, I want to keep an eye on
244. 9:38the leverage situation. If it rises
245. 9:40with leverage still piled up, a minor
246. 9:42dip could trigger a chain reaction of
247. 9:44liquidations. Conversely, if leverage
248. 9:47has been cleared to some extent as it
249. 9:49has this time, it is worth watching how
250. 9:51the market structure changes when new
251. 9:53capital flows in next. However, it is
252. 9:56dangerous to pick up only bullish
253. 9:58factors here. While there is buying
254. 10:00interest near $ 80,000, there is
255. 10:03selling pressure in the $ 85,000 to $
256. 10:0587,500 range. Also, according to
257. 10:08Glassnode, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs
258. 10:11saw inflows of about $ 653 million on
259. 10:13October 19, volume remains below the
260. 10:15average level of the past year, and the
261. 10:1730-day average volume is less than
262. 10:19one-fourth of what it was a year ago.
263. 10:23In other words, there is not enough
264. 10:25evidence yet to conclude that capital
265. 10:27has returned. Consistent capital
266. 10:28inflows and the accompanying increase
267. 10:30in trading volume. Only after
268. 10:32confirming these can we truly consider
269. 10:34that demand has returned in earnest.
270. 10:36And regarding the increase in deposits
271. 10:37from retail investors, deposits do not
272. 10:39necessarily equate to buying. I want to
273. 10:41observe this calmly as well. So, how do
274. 10:43I personally view BTC right now? I
275. 10:45think we have entered a quite
276. 10:47interesting phase, but I am not yet
277. 10:48taking the stance that it has shifted
278. 10:50to a bullish trend. There is solid
279. 10:52buying coming in near $ 80,000. The
280. 10:54acquisition cost for ETFs and
281. 10:55corporations is also in this area.
282. 10:57Furthermore, in Ethereum, deleveraging
283. 10:59is also progressing. Looking at these
284. 11:01points, we can see that excessive
285. 11:02positions in the market are being
286. 11:04cleared out. On the other hand, there
287. 11:07is still selling pressure near $ 85,000
288. 11:09to $ 87,500. ETF capital inflows also
289. 11:12still require confirmation before we
290. 11:13can call them sustained demand. And the
291. 11:15current BTC price is still below the
292. 11:17acquisition cost of investors who
293. 11:19bought at previous high levels. So, my
294. 11:21view is that rather than a major
295. 11:23immediate rally, the elements needed to
296. 11:25determine the next direction are
297. 11:26gradually falling into place. And from
298. 11:29here, what I want to focus on most is
299. 11:31whether it can maintain $ 80,000. And
300. 11:34whether it can break through the $
301. 11:3685,000 to $ 87,000 zone accompanied by
302. 11:38trading volume—that is the point.
303. 11:40With that said, here is today's
304. 11:42conclusion. BTC is currently seeing
305. 11:44buying interest after testing the
306. 11:46downside near $ 80,000. On the other
307. 11:48hand, there is still a ceiling of
308. 11:50resistance between $ 85,000 and $
309. 11:5387,500. In the meantime, various
310. 11:55metrics are shifting, including retail
311. 11:57investor activity, whale movements,
312. 11:59Ethereum leverage, ETF inflows, and
313. 12:01overall market volume. So, I don't
314. 12:04believe this is a situation where BTC
315. 12:06is finished, nor do I think we’ve
316. 12:08already returned to a bull market.
317. 12:12Rather, it is a critical juncture for
318. 12:13gauging the next direction. Well, that
319. 12:15is how I see it. In particular, whether
320. 12:18it can maintain $ 80,000 and if it can
321. 12:20break through the $ 85,000 to $ 87,000
322. 12:22range. I think this will become quite
323. 12:24important moving forward. Personally, I
324. 12:26hold BTC for the long term, so I want
325. 12:28to track it carefully by looking at
326. 12:30supply and demand and on-chain data,
327. 12:32rather than judging it solely by
328. 12:34short-term price movements. As the
329. 12:38investment legend Warren Buffett once
330. 12:40said, "Nobody wants to get rich slow,"
331. 12:41but actually, in investing, it’s
332. 12:43easier to increase your final returns
333. 12:45by making time your ally and holding
334. 12:47onto your assets firmly for the long
335. 12:49term. If you only look at short-term
336. 12:54price action, you’ll be on a roller
337. 12:56coaster of emotions, and you might lose
338. 12:58out on profitable opportunities, so I
339. 12:59fundamentally intend to keep looking at
340. 13:01this from a long-term perspective. With
341. 13:06that, thank you all for listening until
342. 13:07the end today. On this channel, I
343. 13:10explain the news happening in the
344. 13:11crypto market, centered on Bitcoin and
345. 13:13Ethereum, from the perspective of a
346. 13:15salaryman investor. If you found this
347. 13:18video helpful, please make sure to
348. 13:19subscribe to the channel. And every
349. 13:22Saturday, unlike my usual news
350. 13:24commentary, I upload a "Saturday Stock"
351. 13:26video where I take a deep dive into
352. 13:28Bitcoin's value, market mechanics, and
353. 13:30future potential. And every Sunday, I
354. 13:33post the "Freedom Point Radio," where I
355. 13:35record my journey toward reaching FIRE
356. 13:38at 45, covering my investments, YouTube
357. 13:40channel, full-time job, family, and
358. 13:42daily life. In yesterday's episode of
359. 13:45Freedom Point Radio, I thought about
360. 13:47life after FIRE, specifically focusing
361. 13:49on what I actually want to do once I
362. 13:51reach that goal. I would be very happy
363. 13:53if you could check that out as well.
364. 13:55See you in the next video. This was
365. 13:57Caffe Latte, the salaryman investor.
366. 13:59Bye-bye.