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$71K or $205K? The Bitcoin Setup That Could Decide This Cycle — Transcript

by Milk Road · 8,513 words · 1,189 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I think Bitcoin has re-entered a new
0:01bull market environment and I will
0:03continue to pound the table on that so
0:05long as Bitcoin stays above. One year
0:07ago this week, Bitcoin hit its all-time
0:10high. Since then, we have had a full
0:11bare market and now it looks like
0:13Bitcoin is trying to confirm the start
0:14of a new bull market. But is this a
0:17breakout or a retest or are we about to
0:20fall back into bare market territory?
0:22And what do investors need to know about
0:23all this? Hello and welcome to Milk Road
0:25Crypto, the show that knows that Bitcoin
0:27is just retesting its breakout, but
0:29everyone is still traumatized from the
0:30bare market and the timeline is
0:32panicking. I'm your host, John Gillan.
0:34Today is Wednesday, October 7th, and
0:35today we are joined by the chart master
0:37himself, one of my favorite guests,
0:39Caleb Franen. Caleb is the founder of
0:41Cubic Analytics. He called this bare
0:43market when Bitcoin slipped below 97K.
0:45He is now flip bullish. He's here to
0:47explain what is going on and give us a
0:48whole bunch of alpha. Caleb is one of
0:50the smartest analysts in the business.
0:51If that sounds good to you, make sure
0:53you like and subscribe. Share this
0:54episode with somebody who's going to
0:55enjoy it. And as a reminder, our podcast
0:57today is free, and that would not be
0:58possible with our wonderful partners at
1:00Nexo, the digital asset platform that
1:02lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in
1:04one place, all in one account. So, keep
1:05an eye out for more information on them
1:07later in the show. But for now, welcome
1:09back to Milk Road Crypto. My good friend
1:10Caleb. Sir, how are you?
1:13>> Let's rock and roll. Man, I love how you
1:14said investors are a bit traumatized in
1:17this market because I think that's so
1:18appropriate. Um, it's the same read I
1:21have on things. So, I'm super excited to
1:22talk about what I'm feeling in this
1:24market and the different things that
1:25we're both seeing. So, uh, let's get
1:26into it, man.
1:27>> All right. Well, let let's catch up to
1:29where we are. You flipped bearish when
1:31Bitcoin lost 97K and since then, I've
1:35been monitoring your work very closely
1:37and you've now started to pivot back in
1:39a bullish direction. talk me through
1:40what was the signal in the market that
1:42caused you to flip bearish when we lost
1:44to 97k and and what's changed your mind
1:47now when you're you're seeing bullish
1:48price action starting to happen here.
1:50>> Yeah, I think one of my super not to pat
1:52myself too much on the back here, but
1:53one of my superpowers as an investor is
1:55my ability to change my mind and adapt
1:57based on data, right? And I think as
1:59much as possible, the recipe for
2:01investing is actually quite simple. We
2:03want to own uptrends as much as possible
2:05and we want to own as little of
2:07downtrends as possible as well. And so
2:09when I saw Bitcoin flipping into what I
2:11believed looked like downtrend
2:13characteristics in November of 2025, I
2:16had to respect the trend. And uh now
2:18today I'm seeing uh quite a bit of a
2:20different dynamic. I think you know I
2:22received a lot of criticism on that call
2:24from last year and that's fine. I was
2:26kind of going against the herd in a lot
2:27of ways. And I think one of the key
2:29distinctions that I had is I continued
2:30to reiterate a bullish look on what I
2:32was seeing in terms of the equity
2:33market. And that really confused a lot
2:35of people cuz how could I still be
2:36bullish on equities if Bitcoin I was
2:38proclaiming was now in a new bare
2:40market. And it's just simply because
2:41both of those asset classes were
2:42exhibiting two different types of
2:44trends. Today, as I look at market
2:46conditions, as I look at risk assets, I
2:48see Bitcoin reasserting itself back into
2:51uptrend behavior, back into bull market
2:53dynamics, while equities have continued
2:55to be in bull market dynamics. And
2:57that's the full type of risk on uh
3:01environment that I love to be an
3:02investor in. And that's where we get
3:04rewarded as investors. We can only
3:06manufacture arbitrage really in two
3:07ways. We can buy low and sell high or we
3:10can buy high and sell higher. That's
3:12really that's the name of the game right
3:13there, plain and simple. So for me, as
3:15you know, John, everything comes down to
3:17price. I analyze price because I believe
3:19it's the best crystal ball that we have
3:21available to us to tell us what the
3:23market's expectations quite literally
3:25are. And so when all risks and
3:29opportunities can be condensed into one
3:30single data point, price, I think that
3:33in and of itself contains all the
3:34information that we need and then we can
3:36just adapt based on how price signals do
3:38change and adapt. So for me, what caused
3:40me to turn bearish last year was price.
3:42>> Okay. And at the end of August, you
3:44wrote a piece about how the weight of
3:46evidence suggests that the worst of the
3:48Bitcoin bare market is over. What were
3:50you seeing at the end of August that
3:52changed your mind here and caused you to
3:54flip from that bearish outlook uh
3:56towards a more bullish one?
3:57>> So, I think two main things happened.
4:00Um, and if you actually want to go to my
4:01screen on this, I think this is a great
4:03little starting point for us. This is
4:04Bitcoin since last October. So, October
4:072025. And all I've added on here is that
4:10200 day moving average cloud. I don't
4:12think there's anything necessarily
4:13magical about 200 days, but it's been a
4:16uh proven technique for me that's worked
4:18uh in my 11 years as a technician. So,
4:20I'm going to continue to rely on it. And
4:21when I saw this breakout move happening,
4:24I believe that was on like August 21st
4:26or somewhere around there, I had to pay
4:28a lot of attention to that because it
4:30was quite literally different than at
4:32any other point in the context of that
4:34downtrend and that bare market. You'll
4:35notice that's exactly where we got
4:37rejected in May of 2026. We didn't even
4:41sniff it in that January 2026 potential
4:44retest. And so this breakout move has
4:47quite literally stuck the landing. This
4:49move right here looks very different
4:51than this downtrend dynamic. So that in
4:54and of itself is really key. Uh you can
4:56stop sharing my screen there if you'd
4:57like. And I think the other main thing
5:00um that I paid attention to was
5:01something that I was referring to as a
5:03momentum thrust. And in particular, what
5:05I was looking at was Bitcoin had gained
5:07in that single weekly candle in mid to
5:09late August 20% or more. And I was
5:12saying, man, that's a huge candle.
5:13Throughout Bitcoin's history, how how
5:16first of all, how many times has Bitcoin
5:17done this? And second of all, when it
5:19has done it in the past, when it's
5:20gained more than 20% in a single week,
5:22what are forward returns for Bitcoin?
5:25And I looked and the data was like super
5:27optimistic. And I was like, wow, okay,
5:28that in and of itself is a great
5:30reflection of how we should be trying to
5:31position ourselves as investors. So, in
5:34late August, I said, "Okay, I don't know
5:36what the path is going to be going
5:38forward, but we're seeing this technical
5:40breakout above the 200 day moving
5:41average cloud, and we're getting this
5:43momentum thrust.
5:45What What do the what does the data
5:46say?" And the data tells us that price
5:48should be significantly higher 6 months
5:49later, one year later, and I don't know
5:51what path we're going to take to get
5:52there. And that's why I basically came
5:53out and said, "This is the least bearish
5:54that I've been in 10 months at the
5:57time." And why I was saying that now
5:58officially, in my opinion, the worst of
6:00the bare market is over. This pullback
6:02on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people
6:03and I am not one of them. So, if you
6:04want to see what I'm not selling and
6:06why, what's on my watch list and when
6:07I'm going to be deploying more capital
6:09into these markets, you can join Milkro
6:10Pro today. It's just a dollar. The link
6:12is in the description. I answer
6:13questions day and night in Discord. I'll
6:15see you there. Gotcha. Okay, that's very
6:17helpful context on that. I I saw
6:18something else that you flagged. You're
6:19great on charts and on on signals. You
6:22flagged that the 21-day moving average
6:24has crossed above the 200 day moving
6:27average. you said that that's only
6:28happened eight times since 2020 for
6:30Bitcoin. Walk us through what that
6:32signal is, what it means to you, and why
6:34this is such an important moment uh in
6:36your opinion.
6:37>> So, I didn't bring that specific chart
6:39with me, but I brought one that
6:41basically layers on top of it. In this
6:42particular case, I have the 21-day EMA
6:44in blue and the 200 day EMA in green.
6:47So, the signal that you're referencing
6:48that I highlighted occurred right back
6:50here at the exact end of August. The
6:52only other addition that I have on here
6:54is the 55day EMA in red. So, we're
6:56basically just looking at Bitcoin's
6:58average price over multiple different
6:59time frames and looking at how those
7:01average prices on those multiple
7:02different time frames are related to
7:04each other. And, you know, for me, the
7:06data on this was super conclusive, uh,
7:09super optimistic. I brought a lot of
7:11different studies with me here on this
7:12particular case, but what I want to
7:14specifically reference is this one right
7:15here. When Bitcoin's 21-day EMA crosses
7:18above the 200 day EMA, the average
7:203-month return is basically 33%. The
7:23average six-month return is 43.4%. 4%
7:26and the average 1-year return is 153%.
7:30You'll see here a few of these cases do
7:32come out with negative returns. These
7:34are averages. All I'm trying to do with
7:36this data is reference or not sorry not
7:40not to reference but to essentially
7:41build out some form of expectations. If
7:44this is the objective data from the
7:46past, unfortunately it's the only data
7:47that we can rely on because we don't
7:49have data from the future. But if this
7:51is the data from the past and we're
7:53trying to use that to form expectations
7:55about the future or potential outcomes,
7:58then this for me is super key, right? If
8:00this signal was basically happening at
8:02like $85,000 per BTC or 80K per BTC,
8:06what does it look like 43% higher 6
8:08months later? What is the actual price
8:10on average one year later with 153%
8:12returns? And so for me, you know, I
8:15built out all of these different studies
8:16that have occurred over the course of
8:17the last basically 6 to 8 weeks. And
8:19from my perspective, you know, you you
8:21can we I'm sure we'll go over each of
8:23these a bit more independently, right?
8:25But um you know, the data is pretty
8:26conclusive, right? Our upside bias
8:28should obviously be in place.
8:29>> Yeah. Well, this is a great slide and
8:31for those listening, I would highly
8:33recommend you flip over to YouTube and
8:34check out what's on the screen right now
8:35because Caleb has assembled a enormous
8:38amount of studies about Bitcoin and and
8:40how it behaves under certain market
8:41conditions. Uh Caleb, step us through a
8:44little bit more of what's on this slide
8:45and and why this is important for
8:46investors to understand. Well, so again,
8:49you know, we I I referenced that
8:50momentum thrust that occurred in the mid
8:52to end of August, and you know, 6 months
8:54later, Bitcoin's up 51%. One year later,
8:56Bitcoin's up 85% on average. Is that
8:59data that I really want to fade? Is that
9:01data that I want to fade in light of the
9:03evidence of all the other data on this
9:05chart, right? Because one study, you
9:07know, I'm sure there's going to be bears
9:08out there who have studies that they're
9:10referencing that show poor returns for
9:12BTC perhaps, right? I mean, good luck to
9:14them. But from my perspective, when we
9:16have all this weight of the evidence
9:17pointing towards positive outcomes 6
9:19months later, one year later in terms of
9:21average returns, I now have a choice as
9:24someone who's been bearish since last
9:25November. Am I going to look at this
9:27data and say, you know, I've been
9:28bearish. That's become a bit of my stick
9:30now. Um, I have a reputation to uphold.
9:34So, yeah, all this data exists, but I'm
9:35just going to bury my head in the sand
9:36and pretend like it doesn't so I can
9:38continue to be bearish. Absolutely not.
9:40Right? I'm here to make money, right? I
9:42mean, the the only reason why I'm an
9:44investor and why I'm sharing analysis is
9:45because I want to make money in the
9:47market. Um, and the analysis that I
9:49share is exactly how I'm doing that,
9:50right? And so, you know, another thing
9:51that that I referenced potentially is
9:54this indicator for me that obviously
9:56allowed me to flip bearish at the end of
9:57last year. This is the 2-day 200 moving
9:59average cloud. It's something that we've
10:01talked about on the show in the past,
10:02John. And you know, we can see very
10:05clearly when price breaks above this
10:062-day 200 moving average cloud, as it
10:08did, I believe that was in May of 2020,
10:11as it did in March of 2023, and as it
10:14just did literally a few weeks ago, good
10:17things tend to take place. And the
10:19opposite is also true. When price broke
10:20above in late 2021 going into 2022, when
10:24price broke below in uh late 2025, bad
10:28things tend to happen, right? So this is
10:30a beautiful indicator because it's
10:32oversimplifying the entire process for
10:34us and we could see during the entirety
10:35of the bull market. This is an indicator
10:37I was sharing in real time. Each of
10:39those retests were bullish opportunities
10:40to rebound and make higher highs and we
10:43did.
10:44>> Gotcha. Okay. So there's there's a
10:45strong trend that's starting to flip
10:48bullish here. Uh I want to talk about
10:49some of the price levels just around the
10:51local place where Bitcoin is at the
10:53moment. Right. because we keep getting
10:55resistance at 87K um 88K and and not
10:58being able to break through it. I think
11:00on this this move up here, we've tested
11:01this like five or six times, maybe more
11:03at this point. Um and it keeps
11:05presenting strong resistance. Uh do you
11:07think that resistance is likely to
11:08continue to hold or do you think we're
11:10due for a retest? Uh or just like what
11:13what is your thoughts on the local price
11:14action right now?
11:16>> Yeah, so I mean it it might hold, but I
11:18think I I I hope I'm coming off clear
11:20enough that I'm I'm bullish again
11:22unequivocally. I think Bitcoin has
11:23re-entered a new bull market environment
11:25and I will continue to pound the table
11:27on that so long as Bitcoin stays above
11:29its 200 day moving average cloud. You
11:31can see the prices here on the right
11:33hand side. Uh the 200 day SMA is
11:35currently trading at 71,730.
11:37The 200 day EMA is trading 75135.
11:40So as long as we stay above there, I
11:43think good things should continue to
11:44happen and that Bitcoin is in a new bull
11:46market. I think the the one of the key
11:49conclusions that I've been coming to
11:51from my research over the last two
11:52months has been again coming back to
11:55this chart. If we want to be investors
11:57who are going to have the wind in our
11:59sales and hope to achieve these returns
12:01over the next 6 months, one year,
12:03whatever the case is,
12:05we are going to need to, especially with
12:07an asset like Bitcoin, endure a
12:09significant amount of volatility in
12:11order to capture these returns. Another
12:14beautiful realization that I had about
12:15these returns is that if dips occur,
12:19your forward returns are going to
12:21improve relative to what I'm showing on
12:23the chart right here. Right? So, if
12:26anything, if we really want to capture
12:28these returns or even better, give
12:30ourselves an opportunity to outperform
12:33these potential returns, we should be
12:35looking to allocate rather aggressively
12:37into consolidations and downside moves.
12:41And so for me, that's exactly how I'm
12:43viewing things right now. Most notably,
12:45that retest into the 200 day moving
12:47average cloud for me is going to be one
12:49of the biggest kind of back up the truck
12:50types of moments. I know a lot of
12:52investors right now are regretting that
12:53they weren't buying more in the low to
12:55mid70Ks or below that. Who knows? We may
12:58not get that opportunity to buy below
13:0070K again. Maybe we will, maybe we
13:02won't. Nobody knows. But this indicator,
13:05in my opinion, the same way that it
13:06acted perfectly as resistance here
13:08during that May retest, I think there's
13:11a really good chance, given that we're
13:12in a new bull market, that it's going to
13:13act as support if we go back down to
13:15that range. Right? So, for me, step
13:17number one is, are we going to get back
13:19down to that range? And if we do, that's
13:21a buy the dip opportunity. For the more
13:23aggressive investors out there, let's go
13:25back to that triple EMA indicator where
13:26we have the 21-day in blue, the 55day in
13:29red, and the 200 day in green. This is
13:32going to be a bit more for those
13:33aggressive traders looking to scale in
13:35at various price points. You know, we
13:37came into that 21day EMA quite literally
13:39this morning after I took the screenshot
13:40of this post. The 55day EMA trading just
13:43shy of 79,000. So, I think anywhere
13:45basically in that pocket spot are
13:48attractive buy the dip opportunities.
13:49There's more for sure, but those are the
13:51some of the key ones I'd really be
13:52highlighting to investors right now.
13:54>> Okay, I just want to go over all this
13:55again because that was another big
13:57question that I had. If you have
13:58accepted that we've flipped into a bull
14:00market and you are looking to make
14:02allocations, where are the places that
14:05you would look to to deploy? And then
14:06this is I think I want to just make sure
14:08we get this in here too. Where's the
14:09line in the sand where you might say,
14:11"Okay, maybe the bears are back and the
14:13bulls have lost too much ground here."
14:15Talk us through that again just so
14:16people all have that all on one more one
14:18more time here.
14:19>> Of course. So, I will concede that the
14:22bull market uh did not come back if
14:25Bitcoin falls back below. Uh, I believe
14:27it was 71,000 that 200 day moving
14:29average cloud. Um, 71,730
14:32as of right now. That figure will change
14:34over the course of the next few weeks
14:35because it's a it's a rolling
14:37measurement, right? So, I think that's
14:39really important. Where am I looking to
14:41buy? I bought more this morning just
14:42before we jumped on the show. I I had a
14:44limit order fill at 83,000. Um, because
14:46that was just shy of the 21day EMA. So,
14:48as we think about more of those
14:50aggressive levels, I'm going to be using
14:52these. I'm going to be buying on the
14:5321-day EMA as I did right now. as I did
14:55back here. I'll be looking to buy on the
14:58inevitable retest of the 55day EMA. It's
15:00going to happen. It's just is it going
15:02to happen at a price of 79,000 or is it
15:04going to happen 2 months from now when
15:06price is 85k? You know, I I I don't
15:08know. But I think those uh are Sorry,
15:12those were two of the questions you
15:12asked. There was a third one, John. I'm
15:14blanking on it. Sorry.
15:15>> I can't remember what the third one is
15:16either, but basically the question was
15:18where's the line in the sand for for the
15:20Bulls to defend or to lose to the Bears?
15:22I think you answered that. And the other
15:23one is just like where are you looking
15:24for pullbacks and and accumulation
15:26targets here? And I think you kind of
15:28covered that as well. Um, anything else
15:29to add on either of those?
15:31>> I think another accumulation range that
15:32people can be looking at, um, I like to
15:34use something called the anchored volume
15:36weighted average price. This quite
15:38literally measures the market's cost
15:40basis from a given price point and
15:42period in time. Um, so this is a really
15:44powerful tool, right? We can a lot of
15:45Bitcoiners might reference something
15:46like the short-term holder realized
15:48price. I didn't bring that chart with
15:49me, but that's another phenomenal
15:50indicator I'll be looking to use to DCA.
15:53But we could see, right, if we put the
15:54anchored volume weighted average price
15:56off of the highs, that level acted as
15:58resistance at the end of October, early
16:00November 2025. It acted as resistance in
16:03January 2026. Almost right here,
16:06temporary uh glass ceiling here before
16:08the big breakout move. So what we have
16:10here is former resistance, former
16:12resistance, former resistance, and
16:14former resistance now with the
16:15opportunity to act and hold as current
16:18support. I think that will be another
16:20DCA opportunity. And then we can also
16:22put an anchored volume weighted average
16:23price off of the low print from the end
16:26of June and early July. And we could see
16:28that since those lows, that anchored
16:30volume weighted average price has been
16:32dynamic support before every next leg
16:34higher. And so I think if we do manage
16:37to go back down into that level again,
16:39this is going to change in the days and
16:40weeks ahead because it's dynamic. It
16:42gets calculated and recalculated every
16:45minute of every single day based on
16:46market price action and volume. You
16:48know, that might rise up to 75K in the
16:50next few weeks if we do get that decline
16:52back into 75. And I think that's one of
16:54the beautiful things about what I'm
16:56seeing right now is that okay, if we do
16:58get that decline in a 75K and that
17:00anchored volume weighted average price
17:02has risen up into that level and that
17:04200 day moving average cloud is right
17:05there. That's called confluence, right?
17:07That's when we're looking at the weight
17:08of the evidence. We have all of these
17:10different independent variables saying,
17:11hey, we should have support here. The
17:14market has a lot of price memory here.
17:15And then we can look and see, is the
17:17market actually going to rebound on that
17:18spot? I suspect if we go down there, it
17:21will.
17:21>> Gotcha. Okay. I want to talk a little
17:23bit, Caleb, if we could about some of
17:25the rest of the digital asset market um
17:27and the altcoin space. Bitcoin dominance
17:28is hovering around 58%. It may have
17:31shifted a little bit since I took notes
17:32on this, but um there have been a lot of
17:34altcoins in the market that have been
17:36ripping and I'm curious your thoughts on
17:38this. Bitcoin dominance, like I said, is
17:39a little bit off of its high. The
17:40altcoin space is showing some strength,
17:43testing some resistances like for
17:45multi-year going back here. um do you
17:47think we're starting to see the market
17:49start to flip bullish on the rest of the
17:51digital asset space and just kind of
17:52what are your thoughts on on the altcoin
17:53space here right now
17:55>> from so what I've been noticing is the
17:57majors are doing a great job of of
18:00participating in this market which I
18:01think we should expect given Bitcoin's
18:03move and the strength that we've been
18:04seeing and the return of risk appetite
18:06within the crypto ecosystem uh
18:08especially in a market environment where
18:10the economy is continuing to hold up and
18:12actually reacelerate in many ways and
18:14stocks are clearly in a bull market.
18:15Just yesterday, we had the S&P 500 and
18:17the NASDAQ make brand new fresh all-time
18:19highs. So, I think in this environment,
18:21investors are willing to move further
18:23out onto the risk curve. And in that
18:25kind of environment, we should see uh
18:28the most speculative of risk assets, aka
18:30altcoins, if you will, participate in
18:32this market. I think given the proximity
18:36to Bitcoin's new birth into a bull
18:38market, let's say, for me personally,
18:40it's still too early to really look for
18:42other opportunities in the altcoin
18:44ecosystem. um even as a as a trading
18:46perspective. At some point I will be
18:49looking to dance but not yet and you
18:50know kudos to the people who were able
18:52to kind of stay headstrong here over the
18:54majority of 2026 and uh you know I've
18:57been able to make quite a big comeback
18:58here in just the last few months. So I
19:00think that's great for me right now. I
19:02think it's a bit too early to take any
19:03victory laps on that. And um I think at
19:06the very least we can hang our hat on
19:08the fact that you know chain link is
19:10making a good comeback in terms of price
19:11action. Solana looks fantastic. Hype
19:15looks amazing. Zcash looks uh
19:16phenomenal. BMBB looks good. Um XRP is
19:20doing XRP things, right? So, you know, I
19:22think from that perspective, uh that
19:24kind of participation at the very least
19:26gives me uh confirmation that Bitcoin is
19:29doing well. Uh but I maybe I also have
19:32some PTSD from last cycle and thank god
19:34this didn't necessarily affect me, but I
19:35saw how much it affected other people
19:37who were saying, "Yeah, Bitcoin's great,
19:38but if it's if Bitcoin's in a new bull
19:40market, all coins are going to do
19:41amazing." and then they didn't. So, I'm
19:43a bit skeptical this time around again
19:45because of uh you know what we
19:46experienced last bull market.
19:48>> Yeah. And I think that that's how a lot
19:50of investors are feeling. And you're
19:51right, XRP is still doing XRP things.
19:53So, I hope it continues to do that. Uh I
19:55want to ask a question on one you left
19:57off the list, which is Ethereum. And
19:59Ethereum's BTC ratio seems to be finally
20:02breaking out of a downtrend there. Um
20:04and it seems like some people are I saw
20:06you put out some research just today um
20:08talking about how Ethereum has retested
20:10its support and and seems to be holding
20:12that. Uh any updated thoughts on ETH uh
20:15ETH BTC or or anything about Ethereum
20:17here?
20:17>> Yes, absolutely. If you want to go to my
20:19chart on this, this is what I'm sharing
20:21with investors uh over at Cubic
20:23Analytics right now regarding uh
20:25Ethereum. um if we take the anchored
20:27volume weighted average prices off the
20:29lows of that consolidation from August
20:31to early/mideeptember
20:33uh we're coming right into that spot and
20:34we also have the opportunity to flip the
20:36resistance that overhead supply into
20:38support right now. So I see some
20:40confluence here. Um I was actually quite
20:42tempted to purchase a bit of BTC or
20:45excuse me Ethereum uh today based on
20:48this. I haven't yet. Um but you know I
20:50think if we look also at you know some
20:53of the price action that we were even
20:54seeing back here right when we had that
20:56breakout move we kept kind of using this
20:58former resistance range as support. Okay
21:00some of those wicks got a little scary
21:02but we didn't get a daily close below
21:03that zone and we were able to
21:05reacelerate. So I think even for
21:06investors who are buying you know like
21:08let's say mid 25k or 2,500 you know if
21:11we do get that dip into 24 2,400 then
21:15like I I don't think there's much like
21:18no harm no foul right so I think even if
21:20you are buying here be prepared to buy
21:22again in this spot and that would be
21:24fantastic let's take a look really
21:25quickly at where that 200 day moving
21:27average cloud is uh on ETH you know it's
21:29it's a bit further down so I think the
21:32same uh strategy that I shared for for
21:34BTC applies to Ethereum here. I mean,
21:36look at this perfect resistance in Q4
21:392025, perfect resistance in January
21:412026. If we do have an opportunity to
21:44come back down between 2126 and 22.95, I
21:48think again that's another really great
21:50buying opportunity. So, you know, this
21:52for me as an investor, right, like I
21:54don't really make single purchases. I
21:56like scaling in and DCAing at key levels
21:58over time. What I feel comfortable
22:01saying today is buy the dip
22:03opportunities are super attractive for
22:05me personally. And now it just comes
22:07down to outlining the key levels where
22:09you, you know, basically commit in
22:11advance saying if we get down there, I'm
22:12planning to buy because there's going to
22:14be some scary headline where if we do
22:17trade back in that 200 day moving
22:18average cloud, investors are going to be
22:20too scared to buy here. A lot of them,
22:22[snorts] right? And I'd rather be the
22:24type of investor who's able to maintain
22:26my composure in that kind of environment
22:28while other people are running around
22:29like a chicken with their head cut off
22:31and be able to allocate when other
22:32people are a bit uh too nervous to do
22:34so. You know, one of the weird things
22:36about crypto is that the longer you're
22:37in it, the more accounts you seem to end
22:39up with. You buy in one place, trade
22:41somewhere else, earn yield somewhere
22:42else, and if you actually need capital,
22:44you end up having to sell something that
22:46you probably wanted to keep. That's why
22:47we at Milkroad are partnering with Nexo.
22:49These guys keep the whole thing under
22:50one account. You can buy, trade crypto,
22:52earn interest on what you already hold,
22:54and even borrow against your capital
22:56without having to sell it. All in one
22:57spot, all in one account, all on Nexo.
22:59So, if you need liquidity, but you don't
23:01want to give up your position, or you're
23:02already holding crypto and you want to
23:04be able to do more with it, I think Nexo
23:05is worth your time. We love working with
23:07them, I think you will, too. Tell them
23:08Milk Road sent you. Caleb, fantastic
23:10analysis, very helpful. And I love just
23:12not only looking at your your price
23:14targets and and and all of that, but how
23:16you think about the markets, I think, is
23:17very helpful, especially during moments
23:19of a pullback in a in a bullish breakout
23:21like this. Um, I want to talk about the
23:23macro backdrop because a lot of people
23:25in crypto right now are hesitant,
23:27scared, hand ringing about rising bond
23:30yields. The Federal Reserve hiked
23:32interest rates and, you know, I've
23:33heard, you know, people who I I trust
23:35and respect say that they're still
23:36holding a target of 55K on Bitcoin,
23:38which sounds wild to me, but how are you
23:41thinking about the macro backdrop here?
23:42And how significant are these things
23:44like rising bond yields to your your
23:47analysis of Bitcoin and its bull market
23:49here? So I think macro right now as
23:51usual actually is is putting people in
23:54the whirlwind in in terms of trying to
23:56figure out what the hell is going on. Uh
23:58and this is why like you know a lot of
23:59times I say like investors would
24:01probably better off paying almost zero
24:03attention to macroeconomics. Um
24:05unfortunately my hands are a bit tied
24:06because that's what I have my degree in
24:08and it's one of my areas of of
24:09obsession. So I enjoy looking at macro
24:12analyzing macroeconomic conditions etc.
24:15But, you know, especially as somebody
24:16who used to be a former doomer, someone
24:18who used to listen to people like the
24:19Jim Rickards and the Peter Schiffs and
24:21the Jim Rogers of the world, you know, I
24:23really had to adapt how I viewed
24:24macroeconomic conditions in order to
24:26become a better investor. And so, I
24:29think right now more than ever, we do
24:30need to embrace nuance. And I think
24:32what's happening in uh economic
24:35conditions is that the economy is doing
24:37much better than anybody's given it
24:38credit for. It's not perfect. I wouldn't
24:40even go as far as to say it's super
24:42strong. I also recognize that the
24:43economy doesn't need to be perfect or
24:45super strong. It just needs to in order
24:47for me to make money. It just needs to
24:50be supportive of the bullish conditions
24:52that we have in the markets, right? I
24:54don't trade GDP. I don't trade initial
24:56unemployment claims. I don't trade
24:58retail sales. I can't buy retail sales,
25:01right? All I can do are trade asset
25:03prices. So, for me, I'm looking at asset
25:05price. I'm saying hey they're back in
25:06uptrends or the equities have been in
25:08uptrends and are macro conditions are
25:11macroeconomic conditions supportive of
25:13those uptrends. My belief has been for
25:15years now that the answer generally has
25:16been yes. But then again, everything for
25:19me comes down to price, right? So, you
25:21know, I saw a lot of people in Q1 of
25:22this year that were saying, "Oh my god,
25:23you know, the ISM data is finally in
25:25expansion territory. You know, Bitcoin
25:28always does well in those periods, so I
25:30have to be bullish because the I, you
25:32know, didn't matter, right? That got a
25:34lot of investors wrecked." In fact, um
25:36because they were too busy focusing on
25:38ISM data and not busy enough focusing on
25:40Bitcoin's trend. So um you know for me
25:42macro is is a lot of fun and you know I
25:45am seeing uh quite a few things right
25:47now in terms of macroeconomic data. Um
25:49but I think one of the most important
25:50charts that I'm seeing is this one. It's
25:52the cityroup economic surprise index. Um
25:54this is from Yardi research. Shout out
25:55to Yardi. And this goes back basically
25:57over the last 10 years but I'm just
25:58going to zoom in here uh on the far
26:00right. And what we see is a massive kind
26:02of reaceleration that took place here
26:05just over the last few months. And what
26:06this is showing is that, you know, in
26:08order for this chart to go up requires
26:10economic data to come out better than
26:13Wall Street estimates and analyst
26:14expectations. So when that kind of
26:16environment is in place, the dollar is
26:19going to strengthen, yields are going to
26:21go up because nobody wants safe haven
26:23assets in an environment where the
26:24economy is expanding. Um, and the
26:26economy is expanding, right? Again, if
26:28we even go over to something like the
26:29composite PMI, uh, this data came out
26:32super super fantastic. Um this is a
26:34great chart from S&P Global because
26:35they've also overlaid uh GDP uh which is
26:38you know phenomenal. And then if we
26:40break this down into the services side
26:42and the manufacturing side um both of
26:45them are in expansionary territory right
26:46well above 50 and accelerating. And so
26:49from that standpoint you know if we look
26:51at just that data in and of itself uh
26:53good things are likely to happen in an
26:55economy that's accelerating even if it's
26:57only at a modest pace. You know, the
26:59Atlanta Fed right now forecasting I
27:00think it's like 3.5% real GDP growth for
27:04Q3. Um, okay. Yeah, that's down a bit
27:06from one of their more recent forecasts
27:07of 5%. But that's a phenomenal uh uh uh
27:11economic growth rate. So, you know, I
27:13don't want to let perfect be the enemy
27:14of good here. As I look at economic
27:16data, to me, things look very sufficient
27:18to support the ongoing uptrend that
27:19we're seeing in asset prices.
27:20>> Gotcha. Okay. So, what I'm hearing you
27:22say is that maybe one of the reasons why
27:24bonds are rising is that capital is
27:26coming out of the bond market and
27:28looking for risk assets like equities,
27:30like crypto, like Bitcoin. Is that how
27:32you're seeing this play out in the
27:34markets? Is that that does that match
27:35with what you're you're seeing?
27:36>> Uh, that's definitely part of it. And
27:38again, I think if if Wall Street is
27:41required to raise their expectations of
27:44economic growth, then they are not going
27:47to be willing to invest in treasuries at
27:49current rates. Right? Right? That's a
27:50no-brainer, right? So, the demand
27:52declines and in order to attract that
27:54new demand, yields need to go up and
27:56that's exactly what we've been seeing.
27:57Right? Then I, you know, I think there's
27:59a lot of reasons for that. I also feel
28:00in a lot of ways that the Treasury
28:01market is testing both the Treasury
28:04Department um based on uh you know, the
28:07the new buyback program that was
28:08announced in the middle of August. And I
28:10also think it's testing uh Kevin Worsh
28:12and and the Federal Reserve, right? So,
28:14I think um in a lot of ways there are
28:16games that are taking place that a lot
28:18of people we just can't explain or
28:19prove. But if I had to guess, I think
28:21that's also part of the picture here.
28:23>> Caleb, I heard you say on a podcast
28:25recently, not on this channel, which I
28:26was very jealous of, but I I watched the
28:28podcast anyway. Um you said that you
28:30hold somewhere between, and I won't make
28:32you disclose the specifics of this, but
28:33you said you hold somewhere between 50
28:35and 75% of your portfolio in Bitcoin.
28:38And I was hoping you could elaborate on
28:39that for the audience and specifically
28:41share with us how you stomach the
28:42volatility of holding so much of your
28:44portfolio in an asset that's that
28:46volatile and what's that what has that
28:48been like for you this year? Um just
28:50tell us a bit about that. Why the
28:51concentration of Bitcoin and how do you
28:53navigate the emotions that come from
28:54that?
28:55>> That's a a a lesson that I'm still you
28:58know trying to to learn. you know, I
29:00mean, it's not easy to be so heavily
29:03invested in an asset that falls from
29:04126,000 to 59K over the course of, you
29:07know, like 8 months. Um, that wasn't a
29:09great time, you know, and I think I had
29:11to learn some lessons from the 2022 bare
29:13market. And that's one of the reasons
29:15why I decided to sell a significant
29:16portion of my Bitcoin at 97,000 last
29:19November. And I was able to repurchase
29:21uh based on the various indicators I was
29:22sharing over at Cubic Analytics anywhere
29:24between 60 and 75K. And so from my
29:27perspective, right, just trying to
29:29reduce some of my risk and what I
29:31believed we were entering a new bare
29:32market was sufficient, right? Then I
29:34think to an extent I've just been doing
29:36I've been an investor for a long time
29:38now where I also have to recognize the
29:41market isn't always going to be your
29:42friend. It's going to be hard sometimes,
29:44but uh you know I I generally have a
29:47belief that asset prices generally are
29:48going to trend higher over the long run,
29:50whether that's equities, whether that's
29:52gold, whether that's Bitcoin. Um and I I
29:54generally believe in addition to that
29:56that you know that kind of uh asset
29:59price appreciation is just a form of
30:01inflation. Um when we generally have you
30:04know quantitative easing dynamics
30:05happening bank lending is accretive M2
30:08is on the rise you know that only
30:10contributes to the K-shaped nature of
30:12the US economy that in my opinion is
30:14quite literally designed to reward asset
30:16holders and people with debt. And so
30:18from that perspective, I want to align
30:20with those kinds of dynamics as much as
30:22possible and give myself the best chance
30:24to win that race by owning the fastest
30:26horses in the race. So for me, yeah,
30:27Bitcoin is like 70% of my total net
30:30worth. That wasn't a hell of a lot of
30:32fun over the course of the last year,
30:33but I was able to buy back lower. And if
30:35my long-term prediction comes to be
30:37true, then, you know, that's great. You
30:39know, I'm not necessarily going to be
30:40taking victory laps on that. But um, you
30:43know, and then on the other side of
30:44things, like, yeah, of course, I still
30:45have some cash and then I own a lot of
30:47stocks. you know, and the types of
30:49stocks that I own are basically, you
30:51know, the the the variations of high
30:54beta tech, semiconductors, software,
30:59again, the fastest horses in the equity
31:01markets, right? So, um, you know, I'm
31:03not out here owning Pepsi and McDonald's
31:05and utility stocks because while I think
31:07those are going to trend higher over the
31:08long run, I'm 31 years old. I'm willing
31:11to take that extra risk. I have income.
31:13I'm not too worried about my financial
31:14situation. So, even if things do decline
31:17and consolidate, I feel uh comfortable
31:19and confident about my ability to endure
31:21those periods to make it the greener
31:22pastures because of my long-term belief
31:23that asset prices are just going to
31:24trend higher over time. Thank you,
31:26Caleb. There's a lot of wisdom in that.
31:27I appreciate you sharing that with our
31:28audience. I want to ask you about your
31:30year-end outlook for Bitcoin and for
31:32crypto here. Um, City recently published
31:35an updated target for Bitcoin of
31:37$113,000.
31:39Um, I'm curious if you have an outlook
31:40here. I know you just try to react to
31:42what price action and the markets are
31:44telling you, but what do you think
31:45happens? What are you expecting for
31:47Bitcoin for between now and the end of
31:482026?
31:51>> I have no idea in terms of like you're
31:53making it hard for me here, John, adding
31:55a second variable here in terms of by
31:56the end of 2026, man. Um, look, I I
31:59think price will be higher than it is
32:00now by the end of the year. Um, how much
32:02higher, I don't know. Uh, I feel very
32:04confident right now that so long as we
32:06stay above that 200 day moving average
32:07cloud, we're going to go to new all-time
32:09highs. So we can, you know, at minimum
32:11look at 126 and then I recently
32:13published a lot of different price
32:14targets. I think towards around like
32:16205,000
32:17uh for BTC. I forget the specifics. I
32:19think 159,000 was on there. 142K was on
32:22there, etc., etc., etc. But look, I I I
32:24think we're going higher over the next 3
32:26months, 6 months, 12 months. Um, so long
32:28as the bullish structure that we have in
32:30the market today stays intact. And if we
32:32break down below that 200 day moving
32:34average cloud, we fall below 71,000,
32:36then those targets temporarily are going
32:38to be invalidated. Um, and I'll come out
32:39and I'll say that those price targets
32:41were wrong and erroneous and we move on.
32:43Right? So, but I think the beauty of
32:44that right now is, you know, I'm talking
32:46about price targets of 142, 159, uh, I
32:49think somewhere in the 160s and 200. Uh,
32:53you know, those are huge strides forward
32:54in terms of percent gains that can be
32:56captured. But, you know, I'm talking
32:58about downside invalidation of 71K. And
33:00so, here we are trading at 83,000. like,
33:02okay, yeah, we might have to take 15% on
33:05the chin, but if we have to take 15% on
33:07the chin to potentially capture 130%
33:09returns, for some of you, that's going
33:11to be very lucrative. For others of you,
33:13that's not going to be very enticing.
33:14For me, I fall in the first bucket. So,
33:16you know, I'm willing to take that trade
33:17every day of the week and twice on
33:18Tuesday.
33:19>> Okay, great. Uh, one other question
33:21about this is around altcoins because,
33:23you know, we talked about you're heavily
33:24concentrated in Bitcoin. You listed, you
33:26know, almost a dozen different altcoins
33:28that you're you're watching and you're
33:29saying they're looking good. Is there a
33:31point that you're looking for to begin
33:33to add to altcoin positions? In other
33:35words, like deploying cash into those or
33:36rotating some Bitcoin into those? What
33:38are you watching for as a signal that
33:40might make you start taking positions in
33:41altcoins?
33:42>> Um, let me say this is like the the last
33:45two cycles where I've been very involved
33:46in crypto. My involvement in altcoins
33:49has been very aggressive from a
33:51short-term trading standpoint. So, the
33:53the the the time frame that I'm using
33:54for my Bitcoin analysis, uh, I would say
33:57is not applicable, if you will, to how I
33:59would be looking to invest and and take
34:01positions in altcoins. Um, those altcoin
34:03positions, you know, I'm getting hyper
34:05aggressive. I'm looking at 1, 2, 4 hour
34:07candles. Um, and those are kind of swing
34:09trades over like a 5day to two week kind
34:12of horizon, if you will. So, I'm in and
34:14out of things very quickly. Uh, that
34:15worked in my favor in a lot of ways.
34:17last bull market because I was able to
34:18capture some gains. But I saw a lot of
34:20people at the same time who weren't
34:21trading, who were just involved in those
34:22altcoins who were able to make huge
34:25gains. That's also a double-edged sword
34:27because I don't remember hearing them
34:28ever tell me like, "Oh, I'm finally
34:30selling out of this now. I've made 5x."
34:31They ended up just holding the bag. And
34:33some of them even capitulated just, you
34:34know, 3, four, 5, 6 months ago on some
34:37of those positions and made no money at
34:39all from their positions, right? So for
34:40me, I take the more aggressive
34:42short-term route. I don't I don't know,
34:44John. You know, I don't have an answer
34:46for that though about when exactly or
34:47what I'll be looking for. I I generally
34:50at some to some degree I just feel
34:52confident in my ability to say, "Hey,
34:54it's here now." So, when that time
34:55comes, I'll be super loud and outspoken
34:57about it. So, just tune in. [laughter]
35:00>> Well, just tune in is great advice. I've
35:01been following you for a long time. I
35:03know our audience loves your work. Uh
35:04Caleb, thank you so much for being on
35:06Milk Road Crypto. I feel like we covered
35:07a lot of great information in this one.
35:08Where can we send people to find more of
35:10you and your work online?
35:11>> Uh just go check me out on X 100%. It's
35:14just Caleb Franzen putting research out
35:16there pretty frequently. And then over
35:17on Substack,
35:18cubicanalytics.substack.com.
35:20I'm putting out daily voice notes,
35:22weekly live streams, weekly research, uh
35:25quarterly portfolio updates. So, if
35:27you're really interested in what I own
35:28and why and how I'm looking to navigate
35:30the portfolio. Um I was selling a few
35:32stocks yesterday. I won't say which
35:33ones. Go sign up. you know, that's where
35:35you can get kind of that uh layered
35:37access into more of, you know, because
35:39look, you know, at the end of the day,
35:40Cubic Analytics is really sharing the
35:42exact analysis that I'm using to make
35:44investment decisions. When I published
35:46the bare market playbook at the end of
35:47last year, I literally forecasted once
35:49these conditions happen for Bitcoin, I'm
35:51going to be looking to allocate heavily
35:53into BTC. Those signals started to flash
35:55as soon as February and continue to
35:57flash through June and July. And so
36:00investors who read that research at the
36:01end of 2025 went into 2026 prepared for
36:05an endurance mentality to survive the
36:07bare market so that we can make it to
36:09what I believe is now the new bull
36:11market and invest in a prudent way so
36:13that we can enjoy the fruits of our
36:15labor and our patience. So if that's up
36:17your alley, definitely go sign up for
36:18Cubic Analytics.
36:19>> Caleb, I follow your research very
36:20closely. I was uh very excited to see
36:23you finally flip bullish and I for for
36:26those who've been following Milk Road
36:27for a while, you'll know that Caleb was
36:28one of my favorite guests on Milk Road
36:30Macro um before I took over as the host
36:32of Milk Road Crypto and I've been
36:33waiting for you to flip bullish so I
36:34could have you back on the show. So,
36:36I've been really excited for this
36:37conversation. Um yeah, and I think uh
36:39the other thing I'll say is that both of
36:41us were were deploying aggressively in
36:43the bare market and that was fun, too.
36:45And I was like, "Okay, I think I should
36:46buy here." and then I saw you did and I
36:47was like, "All right, well, that's that
36:49kind of settles that." Uh, Caleb, thank
36:51you so much for being on the show.
36:52Really appreciate it. I'm looking
36:53forward to having you back again as this
36:55bull market continues to play out. But
36:56thank you for being on Milk Crypto.
36:58>> Anytime, John. See you soon, bro.
37:00>> All right, and we hope you all enjoyed
37:02this episode. I know I did. It's good to
37:03have Caleb back on the show. So, until
37:05next time, stay safe, stay educated,
37:07stay bullish, and we will see you all on
37:08the next episode of Milk Road Crypto.
37:09Thanks for being here, everyone. [music]
37:10Bye.
37:11>> Thanks for listening to Milk Road. If
37:13you enjoyed the show, make sure you like
37:14and subscribe. And if you're struggling
37:16to find winners in the market, that's
37:17[music] exactly what Milkro Pro is built
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37:21the biggest winners early, and Pro lets
37:23you see what they're buying [music]
37:24next, every trade they make, and the
37:26research behind every position. Check
37:27out Milk Road Pro at the link below.
37:29[music]
37:29Everything you hear on Milkroad is
37:31forformational purposes only. These are
37:33our personal opinions, not financial
37:35advice, and we may own some of the
37:36investments we talk about. Always do
37:38your own research and make the decisions
37:40that are right for you. See you next
37:42time.

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