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YouTube2Text → Transcripts → 中共倒台指數71.26！五中全會中委掉四分之一假從嚴真裝死！華發7444億違約沒人敢簽字救！上證吊在3600底下4600隻股票全死！教師堵門討薪黃奇帆講完樓市被抓！習幽帝的僵屍月！

中共倒台指數71.26！五中全會中委掉四分之一假從嚴真裝死！華發7444億違約沒人敢簽字救！上證吊在3600底下4600隻股票全死！教師堵門討薪黃奇帆講完樓市被抓！習幽帝的僵屍月！ — Transcript

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0:00Official accounts refuse to acknowledge
0:01the reality. Today is the release day
0:03for our Collapse Index again. I have
0:04calculated the CCP Collapse Index for
0:06October for everyone; the new value is
0:0771.26, which is an increase of 0.28
0:09compared to the 70.98 in September. This
0:10is the largest monthly increase since
0:12May of this year. Let’s look at the
0:14drama of the past few months: in July,
0:15the door was welded shut; in August, the
0:17air was cut off inside; and in September
0:19, that grandson Xi Jinping locked the
0:21door and went out visiting. So, what
0:22about October? In October, this idiot
0:24came back from visiting, realized the
0:26body was starting to become zombified,
0:28and did one thing: he gathered the
0:29Central Committee members—who were
0:31practically already in custody—for a
0:33four-day meeting, lecturing a group of
0:35decrepit old party hacks. Well, I find
0:36it quite interesting. As per usual,
0:38let's break down the points: politics
0:40and military added 0.1, macroeconomics
0:42added 0.09, social perception added 0.06
0:44, and the external environment and
0:46diplomacy added 0.03, totaling 0.28.
0:48Politics and the military are the
0:49protagonists this month, because the
0:51fuses for the economic issues and the
0:53stock market were all lit from the
0:54political side. So today, we’ll talk in
0:56reverse order, starting with politics.
0:58The Fifth Plenary Session was held for
1:00four days ending on October 26th. The
1:01communiqué stated that 162 regular
1:03Central Committee members attended,
1:05along with 117 alternate members,
1:06totaling 279 individuals. When this
1:08leadership was elected at the 20th Party
1:10Congress, there were 205 regular members
1:11and 171 alternate members, totaling 376.
1:13This means that in just four years, 97
1:15parts of this machine have disappeared—
1:17a drop of more than a quarter. Last
1:19year’s Fourth Plenary Session had 315
1:21attendees; that's 36 fewer in just one
1:22year. The communiqué didn't say where
1:24those 36 went. But the communiqué
1:26mentioned something else: the session
1:27expelled three members from the party,
1:29including 24 Central Committee members
1:30and 9 alternate members, among whom 16
1:32were generals and 7 were executives in
1:33the military-industrial complex. Last
1:35year's Fourth Plenary Session expelled
1:3614, which was already a record, and this
1:37time that number has more than doubled.
1:39Alright, since you've expelled them, you
1:40have to fill the vacancies. According to
1:42the CCP constitution, you are required
1:43to fill them, right? Yet, among the
1:45alternates, only ten were promoted,
1:46while five people who should have been
1:47filled in based on their vote count were
1:49skipped over. Among these are lieutenant
1:50generals like Fu Wenhua and Zhu Wenxiang
1:52. The Central Military Commission is
1:53still the same two useless dimwits; that
1:54idiot Xi Jinping combined with Zhang
1:56Youxia. This meeting didn't even fill a
1:57single Central Military Commission
1:58vacancy. There are now three vacancies
2:00in the Politburo, and only one was
2:01filled—Zhang Shengmin. He is the only
2:03person in the entire party who moved up
2:04, so everyone has their opinions. The
2:06only thing that stood out in this
2:07meeting is the CMC system, but what
2:08exactly did they do in these four days?
2:10Essentially, they passed only one thing
2:11: a decision by the CCP Central
2:12Committee regarding the in-depth
2:14promotion of comprehensive strict party
2:15governance on certain major issues. I
2:16should have gone to the Deyun Society to
2:18recite a crosstalk routine about it.
2:19They also set a date in this meeting—
2:21what date? The date for the 21st Party
2:22Congress. This 21st Congress is to be
2:24held in the latter half of 2027. However
2:25, regarding the economy......there
2:26wasn't a single word mentioned, nor was
2:27there a single word regarding personnel
2:28matters. This is what I......call zombie
2:30politics. In September, I spoke of "
2:32idling"—commands were issued but had no
2:33echo. In October, it stepped a bit
2:34further; it's not that there is no
2:36response, but that every organ in the
2:37entire system......has figured out the
2:38math, which is that it's better to do
2:39nothing than to do something. Let me
2:40break this logic down for everyone. When
2:42"strict party governance" falls on a
2:43specific individual, what does it mean?
2:44It means lifelong accountability. If
2:46something goes wrong ten years from now
2:47, they will still come looking for you
2:48for what you did today. So, for an
2:49official, a bank president, or a
2:50state-owned enterprise chairman, do you
2:52think that pen in their hand can
2:53actually accomplish anything good? It’s
2:54nothing more than extending the life of
2:56the previous mess, so what are you even
2:57trying to achieve? Given this situation
2:58of zero-sum gaming, anyone who actually
3:00works is an idiot; this is the root
3:01cause of why the current CCP system will
3:03inevitably ossify. Actually, if you want
3:04to see if a system is ossifying, look at
3:06two things. The first is what? It is the
3:08speed of response after an incident
3:09occurs. What does a fast response speed
3:10signify? It indicates that the
3:11grassroots government is reacting
3:12autonomously. This is like what? It’s
3:14like being pricked; your body naturally
3:16recoils. That’s the most direct physical
3:18reaction, a process that requires no
3:19thought. But looking at the plane crash
3:21into the statue, plus the CCP’s total
3:22disaster response—don’t you find it
3:24sluggish? Sluggish, right? The second
3:26window for observing this zombification
3:27is checking for a "one-size-fits-all"
3:29approach. Remember, if a system adopts
3:30this "one-size-fits-all" method, it’s an
3:32organization devoid of any management
3:33capability and filled with empty-headed
3:35bureaucrats. Look at the CCP’s reaction
3:37after the statue was crashed into—what
3:38was it? Within the entire Beijing area,
3:40you couldn't even have a drone. Not that
3:41they couldn't fly, but they couldn't
3:43exist at all. What accompanies this "
3:44one-size-fits-all" approach? It’s
3:46censorship, because they lack the
3:47ability to solve problems, and
3:48censorship is essentially a "
3:49one-size-fits-all" measure too.
3:50Conversely, if they don’t sign off on
3:52something, not a single hair is lost.
3:53They just push the report upward, saying
3:55, "Leader, you decide." By shirking
3:56responsibility, aren’t they just
3:58protecting themselves? So, the very
4:00decision to restrict is the root of this
4:02zombification. And what kind of
4:03situation does this lead to? It means
4:05whoever moves their pen is just planting
4:07a mine for themselves. The best solution
4:09in the entire system, especially for the
4:11military, is to play dead. Sixteen
4:13generals were expelled this year, and
4:15what did the PLA Daily show? There were
4:17editorials, but expressions of support
4:18from the theaters and military branches
4:19were absent. And staying silent is
4:21exactly the safest path. The local-level
4:22example is this month’s Zhuhai incident
4:24; we’ll talk about that in a moment. In
4:25the bulletin, there was a line of small
4:27print: alternate member Li Yunze was
4:28stripped of his party positions. Since
4:292023, he has been the head of the
4:31Financial Regulatory Administration,
4:32overseeing the national banking and
4:33insurance industries. The man in charge
4:35of risk was the first to be taken down,
4:36the same week as the Zhuhai incident. So
4:37, adding up the political and military
4:39accounts this month, we get to our
4:40recurring segment: the Political Star.
4:41Who gets the January Political Star? It
4:43has to be Huang Fan. The guy is 74; he’s
4:45been retired since 2016, eight years now
4:47, but he was taken away while on the way
4:48up. His only son was also taken in with
4:50him. Hey, there’s a bit of very dark
4:52humor in all of this. What is it? On the
4:54day he was nabbed, what was he doing? He
4:56happened to be at a property launch
4:57event in Zhongshan, Guangdong, giving a
4:58speech about real estate. What does that
5:00tell us? He was pointing fingers and
5:01holding court on stage, but the moment
5:03he stepped off and ran to the Shenzhen
5:04airport, he was nabbed, and a whole
5:05string of people were hauled in right
5:06after him. I’ve even prepared the speech
5:08, so let me take out my little notebook
5:09and read it to you all. I’ll read this
5:11speech with deep sentiment for you,
5:12Mayor Huang. Since retiring from the CCP
5:14system, you’ve been the busiest man
5:16around. For ten years, you’ve toured
5:17China giving lectures, sporting titles
5:19like Deputy Mayor of Chongqing and Fudan
5:20distinguished professor, rattling off
5:21economic data more skillfully than a
5:23spokesperson from the Statistics Bureau
5:24. You are the chief architect of the "
5:25Chongqing Model"—the eight-pillar
5:26industry, the household registration
5:27reform, the land ticket system, and
5:28local governments using land as
5:29collateral for financing platforms. You
5:30wrote the very first page of this
5:32textbook. This month, Zhuhai Huafa’s 744
5:33billion in assets served as a practical
5:35defense for your textbook, and on the
5:37very day of that defense, the author of
5:38the textbook was taken in. Back in 2019
5:40, you predicted China’s annual real
5:41estate construction would drop from 1.7
5:43billion to 1 billion square meters, and
5:45that at least a third of developers
5:46would die off. All of that came true—
5:48the only thing you didn't calculate was
5:49yourself. You were at a property launch
5:51ceremony talking about how to handle
5:52real estate, and the day you finished
5:54speaking, you vanished. You could say
5:55that was the CCP’s fastest policy
5:57response regarding real estate this year
5:58. On October 14th, the Chongqing
5:59Municipal Committee said they would
6:01clear out "toxic influences" and address
6:02"boss culture" and "clique culture." I
6:04suspect that "toxic influence" is you,
6:05still publicly discussing the economy
6:07after retirement. This month, the CCP
6:08snatched away the last person in the
6:09system still publicly talking about the
6:11economy, and then, at the Fifth Plenary
6:12Session, they didn't utter a single word
6:13about the economy. That is what you call
6:15consistency. Mayor Huang, you finally
6:17reached your ultimate destination: that
6:18retirement home—Qincheng.
6:19Congratulations, congratulations.
6:21Alright, with politics out of the way,
6:22let’s talk economy. The main course for
6:24October’s economic news is still Zhuhai
6:25Huafa. I talked about this in my program
6:27a few days ago, but let me quickly recap
6:29the whole story for you in chronological
6:31order. Huafa Group is the largest
6:33state-owned enterprise in Zhuhai, 93.5%
6:35owned by the Zhuhai SASAC, with 744
6:36billion in total book assets and over
6:38520 billion in liabilities. For an
6:40AAA-rated entity of this size to lose
6:4116.9 billion last year, and then see
6:42revenue drop another 28%in the first
6:43half of this year with another 5 billion
6:45in losses—that's significant. In
6:46September, Huafa submitted applications
6:48to at least three Chinese banks. What
6:49were they applying for? The goal is to
6:51extend the overall maturity of all
6:52existing loans while simultaneously
6:54demanding that banks lower interest
6:55rates. By late October, none of the
6:57three banks had agreed. Furthermore, on
6:59October 20th, Huafa issued a short-term
7:01bond with an interest rate of only 2.07
7:03%, which is damn near close to
7:04government bonds. Then last Monday,
7:06Huafa’s offshore bonds were hammered.
7:08The bond maturing in December, worth 1.4
7:10billion with a 4.5%coupon, fell 9%in a
7:12single day to 89 yuan, while the one
7:14maturing in 2029 dropped 12%. On October
7:1628th, financial sources confirmed that
7:18two of Huafa’s maturing trust products
7:19failed to pay on time. On October 29th,
7:21Huafa made payments to some investors
7:23for one of them, but there has been
7:24complete silence regarding the other.
7:26This caused the bond maturing next year
7:28to plummet 38%this week, falling to 60%
7:30of its face value. Note that
7:32domestically, you can still issue new
7:34bonds at a dirt-cheap rate of 2.07%, but
7:35offshore, you’re selling old bonds at a
7:3740%discount. Look, one company playing
7:39with two different pricing systems—why
7:41is that? Because before these offshore
7:42bonds were hammered, domestic banks were
7:44still trying to turn a blind eye, but
7:45the real-money offshore market had long
7:47since seen them heading for a default.
7:49So why isn’t the Zhuhai government
7:50stepping in to save them? This debt
7:52issue is essentially the same situation
7:53as the one in Wuzhong. Let’s look at the
7:55money first: Zhuhai’s total land sale
7:56revenue last year was only 370 million,
7:58a direct drop of 94%; the
7:59municipal-level land sale revenue was
8:01only 1.014 billion, an 81.5%decline. As
8:02for Huafa, their financial costs last
8:04year—simply put, their interest payments
8:06—see that? Zhuhai’s total land sale
8:08revenue isn’t even enough to cover half
8:09a year of Huafa's interest. Now let’s
8:11look at the structure: in order to
8:12bypass regulations and acquire land,
8:14Huafa set up a massive, 100-
8:15billion-scale bulk trade business years
8:16ago, successfully removing themselves
8:18from the list of local government
8:19financing vehicles. They transformed
8:20into what? They became a so-called "
8:22commercial" state-owned enterprise, but
8:23now their own cleverness has backfired.
8:25The CCP’s documents No. 35 and No. 134—
8:26the debt relief lists, special
8:27refinancing, central bank liquidity
8:29injections, and coordinated bank
8:30rollovers—have nothing to do with them
8:31anymore. Besides, Guangdong itself has
8:33long been bragging. What did they say?
8:35They claimed to have zero hidden debt.
8:36So, what was Guangdong's method? How
8:38could it possibly be that there is no
8:39hidden debt? Damn, look, everywhere that
8:41idiot Xi Jinping’s lackeys have been,
8:42the real situation becomes completely
8:44invisible. What’s the Guangdong playbook
8:45? It’s stuffing hundreds of billions in
8:47trade turnover into shell companies and
8:48claiming, "Hey, look, this is a trading
8:50enterprise." This is exactly what the
8:52auditors said when Anbang went bust. How
8:54did they put it? The auditors described
8:55Anbang’s accounts by saying that if it
8:57has a duck’s bill and fits the
8:58definition of a duck, then it’s a duck.
9:00Because it had trade turnover, it was a
9:02trade enterprise. And how was last
9:03year’s Zhuhai budget report written? It
9:05was written in black and white that
9:06there was "no intention to increase
9:08implicit debt." If they use fiscal funds
9:09to bail out Huafa now, it’s an admission
9:11that their "debt clearing" back then was
9:12fake. Within the CCP, this is a grave
9:14political error. Who do you think would
9:16take the fall for that? Finally, let's
9:17look at the people—the group that pushed
9:19Huafa from 100 billion to 700 billion:
9:20former Party Secretary Guo Yonghang,
9:22SASAC Director Li Wenji, Huafa Chairman
9:23Li Guangning, and Vice President Zhang
9:25Yan. One after another, they’ve all been
9:27taken away. So, the calculation for the
9:28current Zhuhai officials and bank
9:30presidents is clear: if you sign to
9:32extend their credit today, you won’t
9:33save them; in six months, Huafa will
9:35still go bust just the same. If this
9:37group were to sign off now, what kind of
9:39situation would that create? The bad
9:41debts left by your predecessors would
9:42become your own burdens for illicit
9:43extensions and covering up
9:45non-performing loans, and you'd be
9:46looking at lifetime accountability.
9:47Conversely, if you don't sign and let
9:49Huafa die now? All the bad debts can be
9:51pinned on the "dead tigers" like Guo
9:53Yonghang and Li Guangning, and you stay
9:54clean. Look, isn't this exactly how the
9:56Third Plenary Session’s principles are
9:58landing at the local level? That 1.4
9:59billion debt due in December for Huafa
10:01is the next hurdle; that’s a problem for
10:03the future. Now let’s look at the stock
10:05market. The week Huafa had its trouble,
10:07the atmosphere was also affected. Let’s
10:09settle the accounts for October first.
10:10The Shanghai Index fell from a high of
10:123,842 points all the way to 3,599 on
10:14October 30th, dropping 243 points in a
10:15month and falling below 3,600 for the
10:17first time this year. The ChiNext index
10:19was even more miserable, simply
10:20unspeakable, plummeting 23%in a single
10:22month and marking its largest monthly
10:23decline in over a decade. The CSI 300
10:25index has seen an even longer losing
10:26streak, falling for 12 consecutive weeks
10:28. The entire month of October was a
10:30step-by-step collapse; which day was the
10:31most chaotic? It was October 19th. That
10:34day alone, 2.25 trillion in market value
10:35vanished, and over 5,000 stocks crashed
10:37collectively. By the 22nd, the 3,000-
10:39point mark was lost, with another 5,000
10:40stocks falling, and the market was on
10:42the verge of collapse. On the 26th, the
10:44same day the top Huafa bonds were
10:45breached, the idiots at the CCP finally
10:47panicked and took action. What did they
10:49do? They changed the index compilation
10:51rules, introducing an absurd 15%cap on
10:53the weight of individual stocks and
10:55accelerating the removal of risky stocks
10:57. What does this clearly mean? It means
10:59they are trying to force the index to
11:01stabilize by changing the grading
11:02criteria. By the last two days of last
11:04month, the desperation was at its peak.
11:06On one side, the ChiNext index plunged
11:08over 4%, while on the other, ICBC and
11:09CCB actually hit all-time highs on the
11:11same day. At the close on the 30th, over
11:134,600 stocks were down, and nine of the
11:1415 major indices closed at their daily
11:16lows. Do you see what's happening in
11:18this market now? The record highs for
11:19the big banks couldn't have been retail
11:21investors; it was most likely massive
11:23funds like Central Huijin propping up
11:24the index, keeping it hanging around
11:263,000 points. This led to a very strange
11:28situation: the index is moving, but the
11:304,600 stocks beneath it are dead. What
11:32does this feel like? It's like a person
11:34who has lost the ability to take care of
11:35themselves, being dragged along by a
11:37rope; this is the zombie version of the
11:38stock market. This current wave actually
11:40began falling in July; the ChiNext has
11:42dropped over 40%from its July highs.
11:44Trading volume on September 29th hit a
11:4514-month low, and then October saw a
11:46surge in volume on the decline, which is
11:48a sign of retail investors cutting their
11:49losses and exiting. On the data front,
11:51I’ll be brief: on October 19th, the
11:52National Bureau of Statistics released
11:54the third-quarter GDP, claiming a 4.5%
11:55growth, with the first three quarters at
11:564.6%. My assessment remains unchanged;
11:58the real growth rate is, at most, around
11:591%. The same old principle applies:
12:00wherever the CCP draws a circle, we
12:02start our analysis from that point. What
12:03is the CCP’s propaganda machine claiming
12:04? They say September’s exports,
12:06denominated in US dollars, grew by 36.3
12:07%, hitting a record $ 447.2 billion for
12:09the month, with a trade surplus of $
12:10143.5 billion. Exports could be
12:12considered the only leg still standing
12:13in the CCP's economy, but as for how
12:15much of that is padded by fake trade, we
12:17discussed that a couple of days ago, so
12:18I won't repeat it. Let’s look at how
12:20businesses are being squeezed. In
12:21September, the PPI rose 5%year-on-year,
12:24a high since June 2022, and in late
12:26October, Brent crude hit $ 115 a barrel
12:28again, yet CPI only rose 0.9%. What does
12:30this tell us? It means that upstream
12:32input costs are still soaring, but the
12:33public downstream simply doesn't have
12:35the money to pay. These high costs get
12:37stuck in the middle, effectively wiping
12:38out corporate profits. With no profit
12:40margins, the manufacturing sector
12:42naturally shrinks. In October, the
12:43manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3,
12:45returning to the contraction zone;
12:46mid-sized enterprises are at 48.4, and
12:48small businesses are at just 47.5, which
12:49means the smaller the business, the
12:51faster it goes under. Now looking at
12:52investment and real estate, it’s a
12:54complete freefall. Through September,
12:55fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, and
12:57real estate development investment
12:59plummeted 20.6%. In September alone, new
13:01home sales and floor area both dropped
13:02by over 20%, funds in place for
13:04developers fell by over 21.6%, and
13:05domestic bank loans to them took a
13:06massive 33.1%hit. What does this mean?
13:08It means that not only are people no
13:09longer buying homes, but banks are also
13:11desperately trying to pull their loans
13:12out of the real estate sector and run.
13:13This has led directly to financial data
13:15going completely flat. In September, new
13:16RMB loans were 210 billion less than the
13:18same period last year, household loans
13:19showed near-zero growth, and household
13:21loans for the first nine months totaled
13:22over 1.03 trillion. This is the first
13:24time since records began that the public
13:25has effectively been in a net-repayment
13:27phase over the first three quarters.
13:28What does this mean? It means the
13:30Chinese public has lost all hope for the
13:31future. They would rather scrape by to
13:33pay off loans early than take on any
13:34more leverage. With the private sector
13:36stalled, how is the fiscal situation
13:37holding up? The fiscal situation is also
13:39bleeding out. In September, public
13:40budget revenue fell by 0.1%, and the
13:41securities stamp duty—that way of
13:43harvesting retail investors—also turned
13:44negative in September. Now, the stamp
13:46duty ATM has stopped working, and land
13:47sales revenue for the first nine months
13:49hit only 1.6 trillion, a 28%plunge.
13:50Local governments are completely unable
13:52to make ends meet, so on October 9th,
13:53the Ministry of Finance had to scrape
13:54together 550 billion in "settlement
13:56quotas" for local government debt,
13:57allowing local governments to issue more
13:58debt in the fourth quarter to stay
14:00afloat. What is a "settlement quota"? To
14:02put it bluntly, it's just digging
14:03through the old ledgers. What do we
14:04usually call this? It's called scraping
14:06the bottom of the barrel. In reality,
14:07over the past decade or so, hasn't the
14:08central government approved an annual
14:10debt ceiling for each province? Some
14:11provinces didn't reach their full
14:12issuance limit back then, or they later
14:13paid off a portion of their old debt. So
14:15, at this point, a "historical surplus
14:16quota" appears on the books, which is
14:18what we call a settlement quota. And it
14:19is indeed scraping the barrel. As for
14:20the 15.5%industrial profit growth from
14:22January to September, it was purely
14:23driven by the electronics sector where
14:24profits doubled, while foreign firms '
14:25profits only rose by 0.5%. What does
14:26that tell us? It tells us that foreign
14:28capital is still withdrawing, and
14:29private enterprises are still just
14:30barely hanging on. If we take all these
14:31figures together, the core truth is this
14:33: ordinary people would rather pay down
14:34debt than spend; private firms are
14:36crushed by costs and dare not borrow;
14:37and local governments can't sell land,
14:39so they are forced to limp along on the
14:41two crutches of debt issuance and
14:42exports. So, shifting from the economy
14:44to something with more "temperature"—
14:45that is, the actual feeling on the
14:47ground. The main theme of October's
14:48experience can be summed up in two words
14:50: unpaid wages. And this issue of unpaid
14:52wages crossed a threshold this month.
14:53Who was it before? It was always
14:55construction workers and migrant workers
14:56. On the evening of October 26th,
14:58teachers from a public school in Zunhua
14:59, Tangshan, Hebei, collectively blocked
15:01the gates of the Municipal Education
15:02Bureau. It wasn't for any other reason
15:04than long-term wage arrears, and a large
15:05number of police were on-site to
15:06maintain "stability." Then, on October
15:0820th, China Unicom employees in Changsha
15:09, wearing red vests, did nothing else
15:10but block the gate to demand their pay.
15:12On that same day, workers at a
15:13fertilizer plant in Pingnan, Guangxi,
15:14were also shouting slogans at the
15:15factory gate demanding compensation.
15:16Then there's the October 21st case of
15:18the China Construction Second
15:18Engineering Bureau's project in Huangdao
15:20, Qingdao. This project is a bit strange
15:21; exactly how much were they owed? It’s
15:22only 600,000 yuan, but for this amount,
15:24many people have already climbed to
15:25rooftops to demand their money back. On
15:26the same day, nine construction workers
15:27in Shantou also climbed to the roof.
15:29There were too many such incidents in
15:30October to list them all; just look at
15:32this table to see how chaotic it is. In
15:33fact, what we see now is that the CCP is
15:35running out of money, down to the last
15:37nerve. Looking over here, late at night
15:38on October 20th, Nagqu's Biru County in
15:40Tibet experienced the country's largest
15:41earthquake of the year, a magnitude 7.0
15:43. This occurred at an altitude of 4,800
15:45meters, and what did the CCP report? 16
15:47people dead—I honestly don't believe
15:48that for a second—followed by the
15:49relocation of tens of thousands of
15:51victims. So, what did the Western
15:52Theater Command actually do? An hour and
15:54a half after the quake, continuing the
15:55CCP’s current disaster relief tradition
15:57, they just sent a single drone to fly
15:58over the massive disaster zone. Hundreds
16:00of houses collapsed, and tens of
16:01thousands are shivering in this
16:02high-altitude climate, yet the Western
16:04Theater Command just flies a drone to
16:05take pictures? Isn't that just pure
16:07villainy? Look at the ledger from August
16:08; everyone remembers that, right? Hey,
16:10it happened again: social financing only
16:11increased by 0.06. Finally, let's talk
16:13about the external environment. There
16:14aren't many things to report here, but
16:16some are worth noting. From October 8th
16:17to 9th, EU Trade Commissioner Valdis
16:19Dombrovskis held two days of talks in
16:20Beijing with Wang Wentao, and they
16:21signed a joint statement. What was the
16:23content of the statement? They reached
16:24an understanding regarding trade in
16:25hybrid electric vehicles to the EU. And
16:27what did Dombrovskis say? He said that
16:29over the next four years, China's hybrid
16:30vehicle exports to Europe might decrease
16:32by more than half of what was originally
16:33projected, involving millions of cars.
16:34The CCP even promised to expedite
16:36approval for exports of rare earths and
16:37related materials to Europe. Back on
16:39September 18th, the idiots at the
16:40Ministry of Commerce were still acting
16:41tough, saying what? They claimed that
16:42voluntary export restrictions seriously
16:44violated WTO rules and that China firmly
16:45opposed them. Yet, just three weeks
16:46later, they signed the deal. Why did
16:48they cave so quickly? Because domestic
16:49demand and the real estate market have
16:51completely collapsed. The CCP’s economy
16:52is left with only exports, and they
16:53simply cannot afford the cost of losing
16:54the European market. They have no choice
16:56but to self-mutilate and trade rare
16:57earths for foreign currency. Looking
16:58ahead, it’s all about the future,
16:59specifically what’s left of this month.
17:01What else is happening this month? There
17:02is also that U.S. Department of Commerce
17:0450%rule for federal funding that
17:05automatically resumes on October 9th.
17:06And the funniest part? The APEC meeting
17:08opening in Shenzhen from October 18th to
17:0919th. Didn't the CCP change the
17:11ministerial meeting to an online one?
17:12The CEO summit has also shrunk; they've
17:14turned their home-field diplomacy into
17:15an internet cafe. Either the idiot's
17:17health really can't hold up anymore, or
17:18he's just too paranoid and scared, so
17:20he’s staying holed up inside and doesn't
17:21dare come out. So, I’ve added 0.03 for
17:23the external environment. Alright, we've
17:25covered the four variables: politics and
17:27military up 0.1, macroeconomics up 0.09
17:28, social sentiment up 0.06, and external
17:30diplomatic environment up 0.03, totaling
17:320.28. So, the October Missile Index is
17:34fixed at 71.26. How should we interpret
17:36the month of October? Actually, three
17:37words are enough: "zombification." Let
17:39me break it down for you: the entire
17:41structure of the CCP’s Central Committee
17:42is crippled. A quarter of the committee
17:44is gone, and there are only two people
17:46left in the Military Commission—
17:47strictly speaking, maybe one and a half
17:48, since he counts as half. This is the
17:50body losing its cells. The only output
17:52from the Plenary Session was that damn
17:53abstract "security" focus, which turned
17:55every pen that can sign into a liability
17:56. Banks don't sign, so companies
17:58collapse; the Treasury doesn't sign, so
17:59the people take to the streets. The best
18:01solution for the whole system is to play
18:02dead. These are the organs of a body
18:04shutting down one by one. Big capital is
18:05propping up bank stocks, dragging the
18:07Shenzhen Index to 3,600 points. This is
18:08a body being pulled by external forces.
18:10What does November look like? At that
18:12APEC meeting in Shenzhen, we'll see if
18:14that idiot Xi Jinping can still walk out
18:15by holding onto a friend. Go ahead, CCP
18:18, keep at it. I’ll keep tracking the
18:20account for everyone. Alright, that's it
18:22for today.
18:23If you like my show, please hit the bell
18:25below.
18:26If you'd like to support me, you can
18:28join the member channel; every month
18:30there is...
18:35JA.

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