래리 윌리엄스: 한국인들의 가장 위험한 투자 습관 '7가지' | 글로벌초대석 EP.13 — Transcript

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1. 0:00rewind a bit and go back to 1987 to the
2. 0:03World Cup championship of futures
3. 0:04trading. You turned $10,000 into more
4. 0:07than$1.1 million in a single year.
5. 0:10>> That's not correct. The $10,000 actually
6. 0:13went to $2.3 million.
7. 0:14>> Oh my gosh. How are you able to achieve
8. 0:17[music] that?
9. 0:17>> A day trader doesn't have any time, so
10. 0:20he has to have a large position to make
11. 0:22much money
12. 0:23>> and had about $7,000 to spare to invest.
13. 0:27Where would you put it and [music] how
14. 0:29would you do it? I would find a way to
15. 0:50did you always want to become a trader?
16. 0:52No.
17. 0:53>> No. Then what brought you into this
18. 0:55world of trading? greed. [laughter]
19. 0:59>> They look like easy money. I asked this
20. 1:02guy, "What does that mean?" Because I
21. 1:03didn't come from a family of money. I
22. 1:05said, "It says this stock plus one for
23. 1:07the day. What does that mean?" He said,
24. 1:08"Well, if you would have bought it
25. 1:09yesterday, it made $100." In 1960, $100,
26. 1:12you can buy a car, two cars for $100.
27. 1:15And I said, "Really? $100 in a day?"
28. 1:17Said, "Oh, yeah." And I go, "Well, I
29. 1:19don't know what this is, but I can do
30. 1:20it." And you know, it was I used to
31. 1:21write rodeo and there's a great song
32. 1:24comment with the rodeo guys. The reason
33. 1:26we ride is because we're too lazy to
34. 1:27work and too honest to steal. And that
35. 1:29was the way I looked at trading like wow
36. 1:31you can really make that type of money
37. 1:34without working as I had in a refinery.
38. 1:36I was a sign painter did a lot of
39. 1:38crunchy jobs and stuff and like I I got
40. 1:40to figure this thing out and I'm still
41. 1:42working at it. I haven't perfected it by
42. 1:44any means.
43. 1:44>> So did you self-taught yourself how to
44. 1:47trade and how to read the market?
45. 1:49>> More [clears throat] more or less yes. I
46. 1:51I had two really three instrumental
47. 1:54things in my life. I bought a book by
48. 1:55Joe Granville and I kept all of his 37
49. 1:58indicators and I noticed that they
50. 2:00weren't really quite working like I
51. 2:01liked them to hope they would. I
52. 2:03eventually Joe and I became good friends
53. 2:05and then Gil Holler who was really
54. 2:07instrumental in getting me focused on
55. 2:10the markets. Gil passed away many years
56. 2:12ago very interesting guy had been a
57. 2:14steamboat captain traded the markets
58. 2:16very successful was relatively shranked
59. 2:18way before anybody else was doing it.
60. 2:20And then I started and I read the books
61. 2:22and the line didn't make any sense. And
62. 2:24so I just started reading and looking,
63. 2:27you know, like look at things and what
64. 2:29do you see there? Instead of listening
65. 2:30to all the riff wrap of what all these
66. 2:32other people are saying, just look what
67. 2:34do you what do you actually see? And of
68. 2:37course I made notes and being a writer,
69. 2:40I I made notes and wrote about things
70. 2:42and made observations and rest is
71. 2:45history.
72. 2:46>> Right. So, we heard that you teach
73. 2:49students, you have um classes and you
74. 2:52teach people how to read the charts and
75. 2:53read the market as you do. And as you
76. 2:56mentioned, your daughter and I mean I'm
77. 2:58a huge fan of hers by the way. I love
78. 3:00all her works. She also won the same
79. 3:02trading competition. So, I'm always
80. 3:04curious going back to this dialogue of
81. 3:06nature versus nurture. Do you think the
82. 3:08ability to make money in the markets is
83. 3:11something that you're born with or is it
84. 3:13a skill that anybody can learn? But but
85. 3:16also my other daughter won a day trading
86. 3:18championship. Usually the winners of
87. 3:20these trading championships are my
88. 3:22students. And that goes to answer your
89. 3:24question that this stuff can be learned.
90. 3:26Look, I want to be a football player
91. 3:28originally and I wasn't big enough or
92. 3:30good enough. I had a lot of passion for
93. 3:31it. But passion doesn't get you success.
94. 3:34You have to have something you're good
95. 3:35at and then be passionate about that.
96. 3:37And I think that there's like a path of
97. 3:39destiny that we're on. I I am where I am
98. 3:42for reasons I will never comprehend. I
99. 3:44really shouldn't be here. I don't have
100. 3:45the background. I don't didn't take
101. 3:46math. I flunked math. I barely got
102. 3:49through high school. Barely got out of
103. 3:50college. I have there's nothing but
104. 3:53indicate I should be able to do this,
105. 3:54but it's the path I'm on. And I would
106. 3:56get off that path and things would go
107. 3:58wrong. Every time I get back on the
108. 3:59market path, things go right. So, there
109. 4:01is a little bit of predestination, but
110. 4:04not everybody can be a good lawyer, a
111. 4:05good doctor, or a good husband,
112. 4:07whatever. So, you still have to have
113. 4:10some basic nature sense of like, hey, I
114. 4:12I'm I got a feel for this stuff. Not
115. 4:15just I like it. Liking it doesn't mean
116. 4:17you're good at it.
117. 4:18>> Everybody likes to trade, but they lose
118. 4:21money. So, you you've got to say, "Yeah,
119. 4:23I like it, but I've got some success
120. 4:25here. This probably is a path I should
121. 4:28be on."
122. 4:28>> So, we're nearing the end of this year,
123. 4:312026.
124. 4:33So, can we get a little bit of what you
125. 4:35foresee for 2027? Sure, 2027 will be
126. 4:39another [clears throat] bullish year.
127. 4:40It's going to have a big pullback during
128. 4:42the middle of the year, but um it's not
129. 4:44a time to listen to those bearish people
130. 4:46that are saying it's the end of the
131. 4:47world. Whether it's Donald Trump or
132. 4:49whoever, they they're always there
133. 4:51saying this is a disaster. Well, it
134. 4:53isn't. You going to shut down all the
135. 4:54gas station, all the grocery stores in
136. 4:56America and Korea. We're all going to
137. 4:57stop driving cars. Is the whole world
138. 4:59going to come to an end? No. The future
139. 5:01of America is still in front of us.
140. 5:03Ronald Reagan said it still is. The
141. 5:05future of Korea is still in front of us.
142. 5:06It's not going to blow away. Stay
143. 5:08bullish. Stay long. Buy good stocks when
144. 5:10they have big declines.
145. 5:12>> That's true. So, a lot of people in
146. 5:13Korea are investing directly in in
147. 5:15United States stocks and they're trying
148. 5:18to get that exposure. What's the thing
149. 5:20that we should look out for for those
150. 5:22people who want to trade uh US stocks?
151. 5:25>> I'll tell you easy way to do it. Really
152. 5:27easy way. You could subscribe to Mly
153. 5:29Fool or Zach because they have really
154. 5:31good history of picking out good stocks.
155. 5:33So they're going to narrow it down to 15
156. 5:35or 20 stock. Is that 8,000? There's the
157. 5:37eight or nine thousand stocks in
158. 5:38America. Which ones? I don't know. So
159. 5:40let's look at Mly Fool or Zach and see
160. 5:42what their good stocks are. Then put
161. 5:44some timing on those or some conditions
162. 5:45on those. And when those good stocks
163. 5:47come into a additional entry, buy it.
164. 5:50Easy.
165. 5:50>> And of course, we have um your method as
166. 5:53well that we can subscribe to, right?
167. 5:55>> I don't have anything you can subscribe
168. 5:57to. I I trade I do an annual forecast
169. 6:00report. That's the only really product
170. 6:01that we have. I don't teach classes
171. 6:03anymore.
172. 6:03>> So, we have to watch out for that.
173. 6:04Anybody who claims to be Larry Williams,
174. 6:07that's not the real thing, right?
175. 6:09>> I get phone calls from people that say,
176. 6:11"Is Larry, are you really going to
177. 6:13manage my money?" Say, "No, why?" "Well,
178. 6:15I'm talking to some and they say that
179. 6:16they represent you." I said, "No, I
180. 6:18don't have people have my picture on
181. 6:20their website saying that they're Larry
182. 6:22Williams." That no, there's only one,
183. 6:24right? There's only one. Right.
184. 6:26>> There are there are a lot it's
185. 6:28incredible the number of bad people in
186. 6:30the world,
187. 6:30>> right?
188. 6:31>> That just will try to ride on. There's a
189. 6:33lot of cheats out there. Wherever
190. 6:34there's money, wherever there's awards
191. 6:36and prizes, people will cheat in
192. 6:38athletics and money. We have money and
193. 6:40we have awards and so people will cheat.
194. 6:41So, be careful of the cheaters,
195. 6:43>> right? So, I'm glad that we're talking
196. 6:45to the real Larry Williams, [laughter]
197. 6:48>> unfortunately. Yeah.
198. 6:50>> So, we're recording one day before the
199. 6:52midterms in the United States. How do
200. 6:54you think the market would react?
201. 6:56>> Bullish. It's a strong intermediate term
202. 6:58rally, which is typical if you take the
203. 7:00time to look at what happens around
204. 7:02November, the elections in America. It's
205. 7:04very bullish for the markets. Always
206. 7:06rally either right up to the election or
207. 7:09right after the election, the rally
208. 7:10starts. Um, I think we'll last probably
209. 7:12until March at least. And I think it
210. 7:15happens because people are just so fed
211. 7:17up with the television advertising. I
212. 7:18don't know what it's like in Korea, but
213. 7:19here's like your mailbox is filled full
214. 7:21of advertising from political people.
215. 7:23and you get this new batch of good or
216. 7:24bad people elected. Okay, let's get back
217. 7:26to work and the market just go away. So,
218. 7:29I think that that's is why it's
219. 7:31happening.
220. 7:32>> Um, one couple more questions. You
221. 7:34mentioned crude oil um affecting the the
222. 7:36the indexes, right? So, oil prices. How
223. 7:40do we factor that in for 2027? How
224. 7:43should we look at it?
225. 7:44>> There's two things that influence your
226. 7:45market first of all cost
227. 7:47>> on a long-term basis. Okay. interest
228. 7:49rates in America, gold a little bit and
229. 7:52crude oil. Those are three big
230. 7:54influences. So crude oil is a leading
231. 7:56indicator. So what crude oil did six
232. 7:59months ago or say three months ago is
233. 8:02what the general trend of what's going
234. 8:03to happen in the Cosby now. So you can
235. 8:06and it's really easy just get a chart of
236. 8:08crude oil and move it forward. You see,
237. 8:10oh the highs and lows of crude oil line
238. 8:12up with the highs and lows of the Cosby
239. 8:14and then you get a pretty good idea of
240. 8:16the influence that crude oil has on your
241. 8:18market,
242. 8:18>> right? And you mentioned inflation. So,
243. 8:20let me uh follow up on that. The Fed is
244. 8:22hiking again with inflation. So, what is
245. 8:25in the inflation cycle telling you now
246. 8:28about the current situation?
247. 8:29>> Well, we got bullish, if you will, on
248. 8:32inflation a year and a half ago and said
249. 8:33we're going to start to inflate now and
250. 8:35we're going to continue to inflate uh
251. 8:38until 2028, maybe. I haven't heard any
252. 8:40numbers recently, but we're still in an
253. 8:42inflationary cycle to the upside. And
254. 8:44that's not bad. That's not necessarily
255. 8:46bad. It's actually we've seen some huge
256. 8:48stock market rallies with inflation.
257. 8:51Stocks like inflation to a point but
258. 8:53when inflation gets really high then
259. 8:56that's really bad for stock prices. That
260. 8:58point is about 5%. Annualized rate of
261. 9:00change of inflation. When it gets to
262. 9:01that oh we got problem real problem big
263. 9:04problems
264. 9:05>> but we're not there. But I expect we'll
265. 9:06continue to see inflation. It doesn't
266. 9:08matter who's president. It doesn't
267. 9:10matter who's head of the Federal Reserve
268. 9:11system. We're an inflationary up period
269. 9:13and we'll continue to see higher prices.
270. 9:16All right. So, let's rewind a bit and go
271. 9:19back to 1987 to the World Cup
272. 9:21championship of futures trading where
273. 9:22you turned $10,000 into more than 1.1
274. 9:26million in a single year.
275. 9:28>> That's not correct. The $10,000 actually
276. 9:30went to $2.3 million.
277. 9:32>> $2.3 million.
278. 9:34>> Yeah. And then I had we call a little
279. 9:36equity dip. The crash of 87. From the
280. 9:38from the high of the equity, it dipped
281. 9:40down to $700,000. Then I traded back
282. 9:43from $700,000 at the 87 low back to the
283. 9:46$1.1 million.
284. 9:47>> Oh my gosh. How were you able to achieve
285. 9:49that? Wow.
286. 9:51>> Always young and foolish. That was
287. 9:53cowboy time. Look, you you get on a
288. 9:55horse and you're going to get bucked off
289. 9:56or you're going to ride them. And that
290. 9:58was my attitude. Like, hey, we're going
291. 9:59for it here. And that was I mean crazy
292. 10:03money management. I would never
293. 10:05recommend anybody use, but it was a very
294. 10:08aggressive money management and being
295. 10:09right in the market. There was a little
296. 10:11bit of skill there, but the money
297. 10:12management was just massive in the
298. 10:14success of it.
299. 10:15>> Wow. If you use the same approach today,
300. 10:17do you think you could produce similar
301. 10:19results?
302. 10:20>> Yeah.
303. 10:20>> You're confident.
304. 10:21>> My daughter won it. My daughter was 14
305. 10:23or 15 and she took 10,000 to $110,000 as
306. 10:26a kid. She wasn't as aggressive as I
307. 10:29was. If you're going to be as aggressive
308. 10:31as I was with with my money management,
309. 10:33you're going to be killed right away or
310. 10:35you're going to you're going to get a
311. 10:36jump on everybody. And as long as you
312. 10:38continue to be right, yeah, you can do
313. 10:40what I did, but you have to be correct
314. 10:43and you have to be so focused on what
315. 10:45you're doing. Uh, it's very hard to do.
316. 10:47I was relaxed enough, I think, that I
317. 10:50could stay focused, you know, in an
318. 10:52environment that helped me focus at that
319. 10:54time.
320. 10:55>> Right. So, can you give us more
321. 10:56practical pointers on how to be right
322. 10:58and how to read the market? You have to
323. 11:01be right all the time. Like every
324. 11:02decision has to be right all the time or
325. 11:04you have to kind of wake for the big
326. 11:06trade and that kind of, you know, makes
327. 11:08up for the loss.
328. 11:10>> Well, I still have losing trades and
329. 11:12always will. So, you have to get say
330. 11:14it's just losing trades. Like, uh, a guy
331. 11:16has a men's shoe store and some of the
332. 11:19shoes he buys, he's going to take a loss
333. 11:21on them because nobody will buy them. He
334. 11:22thought it was a beautiful shoe, but
335. 11:24nobody will buy them. So, this is
336. 11:26business. And not all my merchandise,
337. 11:28some of the bananas will spoil and I'll
338. 11:29have to throw them out. Used to having
339. 11:31losses first of all and it only takes
340. 11:33one one big trade to win. So I always
341. 11:36keep that in mind like I got a couple
342. 11:38little as long as I manage my losses and
343. 11:40keeps them small. I get one good trade
344. 11:42in here, it pays for all my losses plus
345. 11:45a lot more. So I just need really one
346. 11:47good trade as long as I manage my
347. 11:49losses. If I don't manage my losses,
348. 11:51well big trade is going to offset a big
349. 11:53losing trade,
350. 11:54>> right? So I heard something about an
351. 11:57African safari where that's when you
352. 11:59took the big hit. Can you tell us a
353. 12:01little bit more about that exactly what
354. 12:03happened that day?
355. 12:04>> I was in Africa on a safari and I was at
356. 12:07the Mount Kenya safari club and somebody
357. 12:09said the market's down 200 points, no
358. 12:11300 points, 400 points, 600 points and
359. 12:14there was a young uh president's uh YPO
360. 12:17meeting there. They all left. I go I'm
361. 12:18going to stay here. my dear friend and
362. 12:20colleague Ralph Vince was uh handling
363. 12:22the trades and he handled the trades and
364. 12:24he told me what happened. He said,
365. 12:25"Well, you know, when the trade when
366. 12:27this thing's over, I'll come back and
367. 12:29we'll trade." So, I came back and we
368. 12:31traded.
369. 12:31>> Right. And you were able to overcome
370. 12:34[laughter] cuz I'm sure it was very
371. 12:36>> young enough that I didn't think of it
372. 12:38as mail baggage. I really looked at as
373. 12:40an opportunity like, "Oh, we're down to
374. 12:42$700,000 now." I really want to get back
375. 12:44to a million. How am I going to do that?
376. 12:46Well, I can't do it sitting on my chair
377. 12:48here. I got to go trade. So, I came back
378. 12:50and was aggressive with trading again.
379. 12:52>> It seems like you were very resilient um
380. 12:56in in dealing with these uh deals.
381. 12:58>> You touched on an interesting point. One
382. 12:59of my secretaries said, "Larry, you're
383. 13:01just like a rubber ball. You're just a
384. 13:03bouncing ball. People put you down. You
385. 13:05just bounce right up." I think that's
386. 13:07one of my real strengths and it comes
387. 13:09from like, "Hey, I believe it's going to
388. 13:10work out. Whatever's going on in my
389. 13:12life, things will get better and I'm not
390. 13:14worried about the future. God's good and
391. 13:16life will be good." And so just get back
392. 13:18on the horse and ride. And that's been
393. 13:21my attitude always like I've been in a
394. 13:23lot of bad spots, but you get out of it.
395. 13:25Things be better.
396. 13:26>> Yeah. So despite setting a world trading
397. 13:28record, you've reportedly advised
398. 13:30ordinary investors to be wary of day
399. 13:33trading. Why would somebody like you not
400. 13:37recommend day trading to to the average
401. 13:39person?
402. 13:40>> Here's the problem with day trading. The
403. 13:42trend is the basis of all profits. If
404. 13:44you don't have a trend move from here to
405. 13:46here, you you can't make any money. If a
406. 13:48trend is flat, there's no money to be
407. 13:50made. So, what causes trend?
408. 13:53>> What causes trend?
409. 13:55>> Time.
410. 13:56>> So, a day trader has 3, four hours for a
411. 13:59trend to move. I have 3 weeks, a month,
412. 14:02a year for a trend move. So, I can catch
413. 14:04a really big trend. And the way you play
414. 14:07that is you have a small position. So,
415. 14:09if I get hurt, I don't get hurt bad. And
416. 14:11I catch a large trend move. That's the
417. 14:14secret to making money in the market,
418. 14:16period. Stocks, commodities, real
419. 14:18estate, whatever. A day trader doesn't
420. 14:20have any time. So, he has to have a
421. 14:22large position to make much money. And
422. 14:25if you have a large position, you'll
423. 14:26have large losses,
424. 14:28>> right? Do you think there's some
425. 14:29structural difficulty of day trading?
426. 14:32>> Well, it's very emotional. It's very
427. 14:34intense. It's there's a jillion theories
428. 14:36of the market and like it's like like a
429. 14:39lot of this stuff. It's like a a lot of
430. 14:41uh trying to tune into radio. A lot of
431. 14:44static out there, a lot of irrational
432. 14:46action. It's much easier, I think, to
433. 14:49trade with daily bars and weekly setups
434. 14:51and and and you know, I know friends
435. 14:53that are billionaires. They they're not
436. 14:54day traders, but everybody wants to be a
437. 14:56day trader. Even my dad wanted to be a
438. 14:57day trader. I said, "No, it doesn't work
439. 15:00for the vast majority of people. makes a
440. 15:02lot of money for people that are selling
441. 15:04day trade stuff online. But in terms of
442. 15:07real time trading, that's not where the
443. 15:09big money is.
444. 15:09>> But there is a certain allure to it, you
445. 15:12know.
446. 15:13>> Oh, great lure and all the stories about
447. 15:16it and just make money in your pajamas
448. 15:19looking at you and that's misleading.
449. 15:21And besides, I think you need to have
450. 15:23multiple streams of income. So if you
451. 15:26have a job, you can't be a day trader.
452. 15:28you're going to get fired from your job
453. 15:30because you're going to be focused on
454. 15:31the market, right? But you can have a
455. 15:33job and trade at the end of the day and
456. 15:35you can have a multiple stream of
457. 15:36income.
458. 15:37>> That's true. So on the other end of
459. 15:40that, there are people who buy stocks,
460. 15:43they have good stocks and they hold on
461. 15:45to them for 10, 20 years. They make a
462. 15:47lot of profit from that. So having
463. 15:49watched the market for 60 plus years, do
464. 15:51you think people also misunderstand
465. 15:54long-term investing in important ways?
466. 15:57Yeah, you need to bifurcate that into
467. 15:58two things. Long-term investors who just
468. 16:01buy stock and hold on to it and upgrade
469. 16:04is just buy an average and then there
470. 16:07has new stocks, new Nvidia's come in,
471. 16:09you'll be rolled into the new Nvidia,
472. 16:11whatever it's going to be, right? So
473. 16:12that's really what most people should
474. 16:13do. Frankly, had I done that when I
475. 16:15started trading in 1962, had I bought
476. 16:17a,000 $10,000 the Dow Jones Industrial
477. 16:21Average and held it today be worth like
478. 16:22$6 million. So that's what most people
479. 16:25should do. buy an index fund, but people
480. 16:27want to have fun. Get let's rock and
481. 16:30roll. Let's do this. So then they get
482. 16:32into this business of trading and oh my
483. 16:34neighbor says this is a good stock.
484. 16:35Well, that's a totally different game.
485. 16:37The average person should probably have
486. 16:39x 80 90% of the money and long-term just
487. 16:42let it run. You know, wake up in 10
488. 16:44years from now, 20 years from now, take
489. 16:46my profit and then with 10% of your
490. 16:48money, 15% then you can dabble in
491. 16:52speculation. in the art of speculation,
492. 16:54which is really nothing but
493. 16:55probabilities.
494. 16:56>> So, from an ordinary person with another
495. 16:58job who's, you know, investing on the
496. 17:00sidelines, if you were 30 again and had
497. 17:04about $7,000 to spare to invest, where
498. 17:08would you put it and how would you do
499. 17:09it?
500. 17:10>> I would find a way to start my own
501. 17:11business. I wouldn't put in the stock
502. 17:13market. I come up. There's a lot of
503. 17:14money. Money is made on Main Street and
504. 17:18lost on Wall Street. Oh,
505. 17:21>> people that make all this money in the
506. 17:23market, they started with a business
507. 17:24some other place. So gosh, find a
508. 17:27business. That's going to be a better
509. 17:29long-term investment. If you can find
510. 17:30something again, you need to have be
511. 17:32good at it and be passionate about it.
512. 17:34Those two things, if you find that, do
513. 17:35that. That would be must buy a stock,
514. 17:37you'll do 10% a year if you're lucky,
515. 17:39right? But if you can start a business
516. 17:40and build it into something, you can
517. 17:42create a dynasty.
518. 17:44>> That's true. But for whatever reason,
519. 17:46that's not possible. So let's rule that
520. 17:48out. really forced me, aren't you? I'd
521. 17:51buy an index fund of value stocks. If I
522. 17:54was 30 years old, given all those things
523. 17:55you said, and didn't have a great skill
524. 17:57in the market, I would buy an index fund
525. 18:00of midcap value fund. A midcap value. I
526. 18:03would not buy growth stocks. I would buy
527. 18:05value fund, either large cap or midcap
528. 18:08or even small cap, but I would buy a
529. 18:10value fund. Value funds on a very
530. 18:12long-term basis do better than growth
531. 18:14funds because when the market gets
532. 18:16killed, gets shellac, growth funds
533. 18:18decline so much more than value funds.
534. 18:21So, it takes longer for them to come
535. 18:23back. So, long-term my grandchildren are
536. 18:26in value funds.
537. 18:27>> Um, let's turn to the subject of ETFs,
538. 18:30if I may. So, a lot of people in Korea,
539. 18:33people are investing in US stocks,
540. 18:35especially in favor of S&P 500s and the
541. 18:38NASDAQs, uh, those ETFs. So, if an
542. 18:40ordinary average person could invest in
543. 18:43only one of those two indexes, which one
544. 18:46would be the safer bet?
545. 18:48>> Well, there's never a safe bet, 100%
546. 18:50safe, first of all,
547. 18:52>> but I would do a Vanguard uh ETF midcap
548. 18:56value fund, you know, Fidelity Midcap
549. 18:59Value Fund. Do you think it's wise in
550. 19:02this day and age to go heavy on big tech
551. 19:06names like Nvidia and Apple or is it
552. 19:09still wise to diversify?
553. 19:11>> I would want some diversification and
554. 19:13and to me for a long-term view. Sound
555. 19:16like I'm stuck in the mud here, but I'd
556. 19:18want to be in a value fund, midcap, low
557. 19:20cap, whatever.
558. 19:21>> Uh I would want to be in that type of
559. 19:23fund and just get along with my life
560. 19:25with what else I'm doing, my job or my
561. 19:27business or whatever. I wouldn't want to
562. 19:28become a trader. The trader's life is is
563. 19:31not necessarily a good life. It's a it's
564. 19:32a hard road. It's not for everybody.
565. 19:35>> That is very true. So, what principle
566. 19:37should differ most between an office
567. 19:39worker in their 30s and somebody who is
568. 19:42a retired investor? They have their
569. 19:44lifetime savings and they don't have a
570. 19:47steady stream of income as they used to
571. 19:49do. What would the difference be?
572. 19:52>> Sure. I think somebody in their 30s can
573. 19:53swing for the fence. They can take
574. 19:55gargantuan risk because they have a long
575. 19:57time to cover any losses. Somebody my
576. 19:59age, 84, you know, they don't have much
577. 20:01time to recover losses. So, you have to
578. 20:04be more risk adverse as you get older.
579. 20:06Not as active trading, but more in in
580. 20:09solid investments, whatever. Doesn't
581. 20:11have to be stocks or some other really
582. 20:12good investments out there. As you age,
583. 20:14your risk has got to come down because,
584. 20:16as you pointed out, your cash flow is
585. 20:18different,
586. 20:19>> right? So, there are a lot of people in
587. 20:20Korea who are investing with their
588. 20:22retirement funds. in your 60s when and
589. 20:25when you're in your retirement phase
590. 20:27like you said you have to be risk averse
591. 20:29and not losing money probably matters
592. 20:31more than generating higher returns so
593. 20:33which assets should they look into like
594. 20:36which type of assets should they look
595. 20:39into
596. 20:39>> well your stock market has such a
597. 20:41history of high volatility I don't know
598. 20:43that I necessarily want to be always
599. 20:45long the costby frankly because all the
600. 20:47hints can drive that market crazy
601. 20:49probably again value stocks in America
602. 20:52uh value ETF in America The main thing
603. 20:54is don't get don't get wild. Don't get
604. 20:56carried away. Oh, Larry W made a million
605. 20:59dollars. Big deal. That was me. That's
606. 21:01I'm a professional at this. Don't think
607. 21:02you can do what I can do. I can't go out
608. 21:04and play football. I'd like to, but I
609. 21:06can't compete with those guys. Find what
610. 21:08works for you.
611. 21:09>> If you could leave a young trader with,
612. 21:12you know, similar similar traits as
613. 21:15yourself. One rule for the next decade,
614. 21:17what would that be?
615. 21:18>> Beth small. try to capture large moves
616. 21:21with with small positions. To me, that
617. 21:24transforms technical analysis,
618. 21:26fundamental analysis. Ultimately, the
619. 21:28path to wealth just comes from money
620. 21:30management. You're going to understand,
621. 21:32pick up fundamentals, technicals,
622. 21:34whatever. But how you manage your money
623. 21:36is just so critical and most people
624. 21:38don't do it very well. So, yeah, trend
625. 21:40is a basis of all profits. Trend is a
626. 21:43function of time. So, you want to
627. 21:44capture large moves with small
628. 21:46positions. With a small position, you
629. 21:48can't lose much. you're controlling your
630. 21:49money,
631. 21:50>> right? So, as we're talking, I just
632. 21:52began to wonder, there are a lot of
633. 21:54things that you need to master or do in
634. 21:57order to become a good trader. Like, you
635. 21:59need to know how to read the charts. You
636. 22:00need to have a feel for things. But let
637. 22:03me go back to to another area that I
638. 22:06know. I'm not a traitor obviously, but
639. 22:08if you want to become a good journalist,
640. 22:10say you need critical writing skills,
641. 22:12you need critical reading skills, but
642. 22:13the thing that I find most important is
643. 22:16just genuine curiosity about how people
644. 22:18work and how people and and empathy for
645. 22:21them. So, what do you think that is for
646. 22:23traders? I mean, obviously you have to
647. 22:25be smart and you have to know the
648. 22:26numbers. I have to read the numbers, but
649. 22:28what do you think is kind of like the
650. 22:29crucial characteristic that somebody
651. 22:32needs to have in order to become a good
652. 22:35trader?
653. 22:36>> Well, I don't know [clears throat] that
654. 22:37you need to be all that smart. I I think
655. 22:40smart people get really screwed up in
656. 22:42the market. I'm blessed. I'm not that
657. 22:44intelligent. I barely got through
658. 22:46school, right? So, I'm really fortunate
659. 22:48because I see these really smart people
660. 22:50that went to Harvard and stuff and they
661. 22:52blow up all the time for maybe it's the
662. 22:54ego. I don't know what it is, but you
663. 22:55can overthink things in this business.
664. 22:58But the what makes a good writer, I
665. 23:00think Hemingway talked about this, is
666. 23:02that repetition, writing makes you a
667. 23:04better writer. Mastering anything is a
668. 23:07function of repetition doing it. That
669. 23:09could be paper trading, which is fine by
670. 23:10me to paper trade or write short stories
671. 23:13all day long until or when I was a
672. 23:16writer. One one thing that great way to
673. 23:18learn to write, take Hemingway and just
674. 23:20write it by longhand or type up three or
675. 23:22four chapters of Hemingway and suddenly
676. 23:23you get his cadence and how he writes.
677. 23:25Then go to James Joyce and and type up
678. 23:28two or three pages of Jane Joyce. You'll
679. 23:29get the feel of how he writes. Then you
680. 23:31can incorporate that into your writing
681. 23:32style. So look at some other traders,
682. 23:34see how they trade, but you still you're
683. 23:36always going to trade your personality.
684. 23:38So look at all these things and then
685. 23:40ingest that and learn from a lot better
686. 23:42people than me. Learn from these really
687. 23:43good people and then ingest that in
688. 23:45yourself and then start to try to write
689. 23:47or trade on your own.
690. 23:49>> That's good advice. Only if we had
691. 23:51limitless money to do that. [laughter]
692. 23:55>> You mean like uh Elon does?
693. 23:57>> Right. Right. So we can try and try
694. 23:59again and master the art of trading. I
695. 24:02don't I don't think people have enough
696. 24:04money to to do that in action, but we
697. 24:06can do it in other ways is what you're
698. 24:08saying, right?
699. 24:08>> Yeah. I look at my losing trades. What
700. 24:10did I do wrong? There's so much to learn
701. 24:12from losing trades and most people don't
702. 24:14want to look at them. I I do.
703. 24:16>> So, has your perspective on money
704. 24:19changed? Has it changed when you have a
705. 24:22lot of it versus when you had little?
706. 24:25>> You never You never have enough money.
707. 24:27[laughter]
708. 24:28>> That's true.
709. 24:29>> Why does Bill Gates still work? Why is
710. 24:30Warren Buffett still managed money? Why
711. 24:32you never have enough of it? Why is he
712. 24:34Elon? If I was Elon Musk, I would have
713. 24:36retired, right? Well, I pro if I was
714. 24:38him, I probably wouldn't retire, would
715. 24:40I? So, you have to have something to do
716. 24:42in life.
717. 24:43>> I'm not going to go feed pigeons. I got
718. 24:45the market to follow.
719. 24:46>> Okay. To to end this off, what is your
720. 24:49most what is your proudest achievement
721. 24:51so far? Well, there are so many things
722. 24:54that I uh have not done well in my life,
723. 24:56but I think that I'm very pleased and
724. 24:59proud of my children, all five of them.
725. 25:01They're all wonderful people. They've
726. 25:04had the very successful careers on their
727. 25:06own. They've become successful adults,
728. 25:08and not a lot of parents can say that.
729. 25:11So, that's great pride. my wife Louise
730. 25:14who's been incredibly supportive of me
731. 25:16and helpful relationships, friends in
732. 25:18this business that I've been friends and
733. 25:20watched their families grow up that I'm
734. 25:22glad I am where I am.
735. 25:23>> Right. So, what keeps you studying the
736. 25:27markets and investing to this day?
737. 25:29>> It's about losing. I hate losing trades.
738. 25:31So, what did I do wrong? And I'll
739. 25:33probably always have I'm resigned to
740. 25:35that, I think. But if you want to be
741. 25:36really happy for your life, fall in love
742. 25:38with a beautiful great problem. And this
743. 25:40is a beautiful great problem. It's
744. 25:42probably unsolvable. But I get little
745. 25:43bits of it, a little bit more every
746. 25:45year. Like, oh yeah, I got it. Now,
747. 25:47people say, Larry, you don't stop and
748. 25:49smell the roses. You're always working.
749. 25:51I go, "Well, these are my roses. You
750. 25:53don't get it.
751. 25:54>> These are my roses."
752. 25:55>> Yeah. This is what I do. I just have
753. 25:57such a Yeah, this is my life.
754. 25:59>> I could really feel that energy, the
755. 26:01passion that you feel about trading. I
756. 26:04think we're about done with the
757. 26:06questions that I prepared. Is there
758. 26:08anything else you would like to say to
759. 26:11our viewers or to Korean traders who are
760. 26:15looking to be like you? Is there
761. 26:17anything you'd like to say?
762. 26:18>> You know, you have to find out if this
763. 26:20is for you or not. This trading because
764. 26:22trading is not investing are two totally
765. 26:24different things. Most people should
766. 26:25just be longerterm investors. If you're
767. 26:27bitten by this bug of trading, try it.
768. 26:30Learn. Don't trust what people tell you
769. 26:33out there. Verify it. Ronald Reagan,
770. 26:36great thing. Trust but verify. Yeah, the
771. 26:38guy tells me that, but I better verify
772. 26:40this. Does it really work? And if you
773. 26:42think it really works, then you can
774. 26:44start to trade it. And then you'll find
775. 26:45out if it really, really works. Okay?
776. 26:47>> So, go slow. Don't try to rush into
777. 26:49this. It took me probably 3, four years
778. 26:52before I became
779. 26:53>> relatively decent at this. Is you're not
780. 26:55going to start making millions or
781. 26:57hundreds of thousands of dollars
782. 26:58tomorrow morning. This is like any
783. 27:00skill. You got to be a good doctor, a
784. 27:02good brick layer, a good refinery
785. 27:04worker. You got to learn this,
786. 27:05>> right? And if it's not for you, walk
787. 27:08away.
788. 27:09>> Get it out. Absolutely. Yeah.
789. 27:10>> Yeah. Walk away is winning in this case.
790. 27:13>> Yeah. So, I have friends that are
791. 27:14lawyers and they quit being a lawyer
792. 27:15because they didn't like it. They, you
793. 27:17know, they went to to law school for
794. 27:19three years, four years undergraduate
795. 27:21and after a couple years of practice, I
796. 27:23hate this stuff. And they got out and
797. 27:24they had great successful careers. So,
798. 27:26the sooner you get out of a bad deal,
799. 27:28the better it is.
800. 27:30>> We first looked at the market. We went
801. 27:31to you for market advice. I think we're
802. 27:33getting a lot more than that. I think we
803. 27:35got a whole package of life lessons. So,
804. 27:39thank you, Larry, for being on our show.
805. 27:41>> My pleasure. I hope that helps somebody
806. 27:44uh as people help me in my life.
807. 27:46Speculation is the art of probabilities.
808. 27:48You want to get the probabilities on
809. 27:49your side. Get them stacked. You could
810. 27:51still be wrong. That's why you never bet
811. 27:53big, but it's a question of getting the
812. 27:56probabilities on your side.
813. 27:58>> Thank you. Thank you so much.
814. 27:59>> Thank you.
815. 28:01Williams.
816. 28:12Foreign
817. 28:18[music]
818. 28:27[music]