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Где будут деньги ближайшие 7 лет. Оскар Хартманн — Transcript

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0:01And what is entrepreneurship?
0:03It is the pursuit of opportunity
0:05without regard to the resources you
0:07currently control.
0:09I had 25 well-thought-out questions for
0:11Oskar Hartmann, and I only asked five
0:13from the script.
0:15The biggest opportunity right now,
0:16number one, where the most new
0:18successful businesses will be created,
0:20is connecting artificial intelligence
0:21with offline.
0:23Because from the very first answer, the
0:25entire plan for the episode fell apart,
0:26and the conversation went much deeper
0:28than I expected. Nowadays, it has
0:30become easier to build a product than
0:31to sell it.
0:32We started with the crisis, but arrived
0:34at the main question: who is an
0:36entrepreneur? The first law: never cut
0:39down a tree in winter. If anyone is
0:40going to be winning in 7 years, it will
0:42be the person who started today.
0:44Oskar talked about where the biggest
0:46opportunities are right now, why most
0:48people are looking for them in the
0:50wrong places, why you need to build a
0:52business right now, and why artificial
0:54intelligence, which cannot be stopped,
0:57will lead us to total abundance? We
0:59will live in a world of abundance. They
1:00are happy.
1:03But they will never replace the main
1:04thing. The courage to act without a
1:07guarantee. Courage is the bottleneck.
1:10Where there is no courage, there is no
1:12entrepreneurship.
1:13This is a conversation after which you
1:15will completely reassemble your
1:16understanding of business and
1:17opportunities. Today
1:19it is the time of the dumb and the
1:20brave. For everything else, there is
1:22ChatGPT.
1:23Enjoy watching. Hello, friends. You are
1:31on the Faur channel. My name is Talmir.
1:33I explore niches and businesses
1:34directly from the founders themselves.
1:35Today in the episode is Oskar Hartmann,
1:37serial entrepreneur, venture investor,
1:39business angel. Greetings, Oskar.
1:41Yes, hi. Thank you.
1:43As a young entrepreneur, I watch a
1:45large number of your podcasts. They are
1:47insanely interesting. There is one "but
1:49." You most often talk about big,
1:51fundamental things. I am currently in a
1:53place where I have to put out fires. A
1:55large number of my viewers are there
1:57too. We have encountered our first
1:59crisis in our entrepreneurial life in
2:00general. I have been in
2:01entrepreneurship for almost 3 years.
2:03This is my first crisis.
2:04You started right inside the crisis
2:05immediately.
2:06There was growth, I was making good
2:08margins, around 40%. Now that has all
2:10shrunk significantly and so on. I have
2:12to experience this all over again. As
2:14an entrepreneur, including myself, I
2:16have a large number of questions that I
2:18want to ask today.
2:19Well, tell me, why does it seem to you
2:20that what I am talking about is too big
2:22? How? Explain, what feelings are
2:23inside you? Do you want pain,
2:25so that it’s just one step, like
2:27buying slippers at Sadovod, listing
2:28them on Wildberries and selling them,
2:29is that what makes sense to you? Yes,
2:32probably, when we talk about large
2:34venture investments, especially when it
2:36concerns Russian guys who are in the
2:38States doing cool cases, that seems
2:40unattainable to me at the moment.
2:42I mostly talk about how, out of all the
2:45big companies, 10%are built without
2:48investment.
2:48Uh-huh.
2:49I’m primarily talking about those. I
2:50basically exclude business models that
2:52require large initial investments. I
2:54don’t count them. I try to pick
2:55business models that can be
2:57bootstrapped, to build them from the
2:58ground up. I even made a monument to
3:01bootstrapping a unicorn out of sticks
3:03and...no. I’m discussing
3:05capital-light businesses. As for moving
3:08to America, India, China, or Japan—
3:11it’s very difficult, of course;
3:14practically unrealistic. A new country
3:18and a new market are too many variables
3:21at once: a new wife, new family, new
3:23house, new country, new business, new
3:26industry, new everything. That’s too
3:29much. A person can't handle that many
3:31changes. Although some do, some just...
3:34get on a ship
3:37and say, "They found a new land, it
3:39seems cool there." They explain to
3:42their wife that they have to take three
3:44kids, get on a wooden ship, and suffer
3:46for 6–7 weeks across the Atlantic.
3:49Maybe it’ll be a little better there.
3:52And then, of those who arrived on the
3:54East Coast, just as they settled in and
3:56hung the curtains in their new home,
3:58gold was discovered on the West Coast.
4:01And then the same guy comes to his wife
4:05and says, "Honey, you just hung the
4:07curtains, but they found gold, let’s
4:11go there." And that’s how the West
4:14Coast of America ended up with the
4:17genes, the genetic background, of
4:20absolute crazy mutants. The genetic
4:24background of Western America has
4:26nothing in common with the genetic
4:28background in Japan. In terms of a
4:31willingness to take risks. Now, with
4:34the arrival of artificial intelligence,
4:36to do something in AI, you must step
4:38into the unknown. There is no other way
4:40. No matter how much you think, the
4:42uncertainty remains. You can't just
4:44turn on the lights by thinking about it
4:47. When such technology appears, with so
4:50many unknowns, how many breakthroughs
4:53has Japan made in AI? 95%of everything
4:56being done in AI right now is happening
5:00on the West Coast of America. Why?
5:04Because it’s the only place where
5:06people live who say, "Cool, I’ll walk
5:09into that dark room; there are scary
5:11sounds coming from it, people are
5:13screaming, but I think something good
5:16will happen." You’re apparently that
5:19kind of person, it’s in your genes.
5:20And where were you born?
5:21In Russia, in Bashkortostan.
5:23Have you always lived there? Were you
5:24migrants? Have you studied your past?
5:27Always.
5:27We’ve always lived there. Well, you
5:29see, you’re basically a farmer. So,
5:31for you, on a genetic level, moving to
5:34America or even just to Kazakhstan
5:36feels like too big a step. Yes, you are
5:39afraid. 75%of it is genetically
5:42determined risk tolerance, right? The
5:45other 25%can be developed. You can
5:48develop it by doing it. The more you
5:51act boldly,
5:53yes, you take bold actions. The more
5:56bold actions you take, the more your
5:58brain realizes it’s actually not that
6:00scary. There are bold actions where
6:02your brain realizes, say, you bought a
6:04motorcycle, did something bold, rode it
6:06, lost a third of your skin, and your
6:08brain is like: "Okay, that really is
6:09dangerous, yeah." But in business, we
6:12often realize it's not that scary,
6:14right, compared to what we imagine—
6:16just imagine, it’s hard for you right
6:18now, like, "How do I move there like
6:20Danya, who I manifested"—you’re
6:22probably talking about him, right? He
6:26just took a backpack and, with no money
6:28, we were walking near Lefortovo, and
6:30he tells me he's going to New York with
6:32no money to start a new life. I told
6:35him, "I can't let you go to New York
6:37with no money. Let me buy 10%of your
6:40company." He says, "I don't even know
6:42what I'm going to do yet." I said, "
6:43That’s fine." The first calls we made
6:46, he was in that hostel, right? We’re
6:48having a board meeting for the company,
6:51and in the background, there are some
6:54guys in the hostel going: "Shh." Now he
6:57has a billion-dollar company.
6:59What do you think sets him apart, Oscar
7:00?
7:01Hormone levels, right? Testosterone. If
7:04a person, for example, has high
7:06hormones, a high libido, they naturally
7:08want more, right? They just have that
7:10basic human aggression, right? You
7:13start to compete; take watching
7:14football, for example, when they do
7:15talent scouting in soccer. Well, they
7:18watch kids playing soccer. What does it
7:20mean to see talent in a child? They
7:23play at 7 years old, and by 10, they
7:25are already being recruited by Real
7:27Madrid and so on.
7:27Seeing their character,
7:30yes, their level, their character, how
7:32they handle failure, but also their
7:34level of aggression. The level of
7:37aggression shows up even at 10 years
7:39old; there's a ball, two boys run for
7:42it, one slows down because there's
7:44going to be a collision, the other
7:46accelerates instead.
7:47Mm-hmm.
7:48What is the difference between those
7:50two people? That's what it is, right?
7:52That’s why for some people, this is
7:55just basic, fundamental; it shows up
7:58very early, very early indeed. There
8:01are people in this world who have no
8:03reason. They have absolutely no reason.
8:06No rational one. They say, "I play
8:08football, and I want to play in the
8:10Champions League." And they do the
8:12exact same thing in business. If I’ve
8:15chosen the business game, I want to
8:16play in the major league. Beyond
8:19hormones, it’s the sum total of every
8:20conversation in your life. What did
8:22your grandfathers tell you? What did
8:23your grandmothers tell you? What words
8:25and what stories did they tell you
8:27about your heritage? Who are you? Where
8:29are you from, who are we, the Hartmans,
8:31right? Who are we, the Hartmans? What
8:33does it mean to be a Hartman? Yes,
8:35it’s the sum of the teachers you’ve
8:37had in life, the experiences, the
8:39accidents; some have an accident in
8:41childhood, spend half a year in the
8:43hospital, and something shifts in their
8:45mind. There are a bunch of accidents,
8:48yes, and then there’s what you
8:49influence. Of course, you also
8:51influence those accidents that happen
8:53to you by forming your own environment.
8:56Naturally, if your circle consists of
8:58kids who want to play in the Champions
8:59League, you won’t be drinking
9:01Coca-Cola at twelve. Everyone wants to
9:03drink Coca-Cola. But in a circle of
9:05guys who want to play in the major
9:06league. They don’t drink Coca-Cola,
9:09you see? They sort of drink water. Just
9:11water, warm water. At twelve years old.
9:16That’s how it works, you understand?
9:18And someone is watching—I hope a
9:19young woman is watching right now—and
9:20she thinks, "I’ll set myself an
9:22ambitious goal, too." Why not? There is
9:25no reason, no rational one, because
9:28people sometimes think that in wealthy
9:30families, right? They think the kids
9:33are like, "Okay, my dad is a prosecutor
9:35, so I’ll set myself an ambitious
9:37goal." The most frequent call I get is
9:40from my wealthy friends, saying, "Help
9:42me, Oscar, my child doesn't want
9:45anything." Wealthy people’s children
9:48are often unambitious, the exact
9:50opposite of what most people think.
9:53Most people think they have better
9:56chances. In reality, the chances are
9:58lower. Do you see? Good times create
10:01weak people, and vice versa. Yes, yes,
10:03yes. Anyway, I apologize, but I will
10:06keep talking about big goals, because
10:09if we end up with 500,000 more people
10:12selling slippers on Wildberries,
10:16Uh-huh.
10:16yeah. The world won't change at all
10:18because of this, you understand? Yes.
10:20If there are thousands like you, you
10:23are in a Red Ocean. And in fact, it's
10:26harder. Building a small business is
10:28harder. You tell me: "Oskar, be more
10:30accessible, don't tell us about these
10:32supermodels." What do people do? They
10:34go into a Red Ocean,
10:35they sell gardening slippers, and it
10:38doesn't work out. They find themselves
10:40in a Red Ocean. Slippers are sold below
10:43cost because there are 10,000
10:45such sellers, and they are offloading
10:47the goods they bought, right? And they
10:51conclude: "I'm a bad entrepreneur, I
10:53tried, it's not for me."
10:55But what is entrepreneurship? It is the
10:58pursuit of opportunity without regard
11:00to the resources you currently control.
11:04If you play with LEGO, you have a
11:05certain number of bricks, and you say:
11:07"Here is what I have, I will build
11:09something out of them." That is not
11:11entrepreneurship. If you say: "I have
11:14an uncle, he has a shopping mall,
11:16there's a vacant space there, and my
11:18mom is a seamstress, so I'll take a
11:20dress from her and put it there." You
11:23are only pursuing an opportunity based
11:26on resources available to you right now
11:28. That is not entrepreneurship.
11:31Entrepreneurship is when Elon Musk, the
11:34richest person in the world, the
11:36richest man by 10X, says: "I am
11:39pursuing an opportunity that requires
11:41more resources." He doesn't have enough
11:45money. For the last two months, Elon
11:48Musk has been raising money from the
11:51market because he doesn't have enough
11:54to reach his goal. He lacks the
11:56resources for this goal. The technology
11:58to do this doesn't even exist yet.
12:01There is no technology to get a human
12:03to Mars alive. He needs to find
12:05resources, find technology, find people
12:08, and solve unsolved problems. And he
12:11must pursue this opportunity regardless
12:13of all that. That is entrepreneurship,
12:16when you set off on a mission where you
12:18don't know everything in advance. If
12:20you are told: "Here are the boards, the
12:22money, the land, build me a house, here
12:25are the instructions—that's not
12:26entrepreneurship, that's management."
12:29Accordingly, entrepreneurship is
12:31fundamentally about taking the risk
12:33that you set off on a mission without
12:35resources, and along the way, you might
12:37not find those resources and reach a
12:39dead end. To me, that is
12:41entrepreneurship.
12:43But don't Elon Musk and the person
12:44selling dresses in their dad's shopping
12:46mall have in common that they are both
12:48solving a problem? These are problems
12:51of completely different scales, but
12:52they are both engaged in solving
12:54problems. You yourself said that the
12:55scale of a business depends on what
12:57problems you solve, and the scale of
12:58the problems you solve.
13:00I don’t want to be dismissive often.
13:01The first step for people is very often
13:04to take a dress from mom, a room from
13:06an uncle. And most importantly,
13:07you’ll take a space on the third
13:08floor next to the restroom that’s
13:10been sitting empty for 3 years. You
13:12didn’t start with what kind of women
13:14exist, what dresses they want, what
13:15dresses are missing, where they find
13:17them. You didn’t start from an
13:20opportunity, you started with LEGO
13:21bricks and began molding. When you take
13:25LEGO bricks and start molding something
13:26without instructions, something super
13:28beautiful might turn out.
13:29Well, if you’re insanely talented,
13:31perhaps,
13:31but it’s highly unlikely. Mostly,
13:33what ends up happening?
13:34Chaos.
13:35Uh, a monster is what you get. Well,
13:36that’s fine. You still played with
13:38LEGO, right? You fantasized, that’s
13:40also cool. But this is usually the
13:41first step. Then they draw the
13:42conclusion: this isn’t for me, I’m
13:44not an entrepreneur. That’s not, well
13:45, as you understand, you shouldn’t
13:47draw global conclusions. And in any
13:49case, you must always start from an
13:50opportunity, yes, from a problem. If a
13:53person had started from the problem,
13:54they would say: "Damn, there’s a
13:55problem. Social networks have appeared,
13:57you can’t post the same dress twice.
14:00And so, women now need not five dresses
14:03, like my grandmother had, but 50
14:05dresses a year." And now a dress
14:07shouldn’t cost 5,000 rubles. It
14:09should cost 50 rubles. You started with
14:11some kind of problem. I earned my first
14:13million by selling a million dresses.
14:16Back then, there was such a problem.
14:17Everyone wanted brand-name dresses, but
14:19they were expensive. I sold past
14:22collections, last year's, 70%cheaper,
14:25and I sold them 70%cheaper. I was
14:28solving the brands 'problem of
14:29offloading stock so they wouldn't dump
14:30it on their main platform, so new
14:31collections wouldn't be sold in the
14:33same place as old ones. And for the
14:35girls, I was solving the problem that
14:37you could buy a gorgeous, brand-name
14:39dress, yes, at a discount. That is how
14:42you start from an opportunity. If you
14:44want point A and point B to connect and
14:45for you to feel no fear, then you are
14:47unlikely to build any substantial
14:49business.
14:50Yes, you are indeed right. I am a
14:52farmer, a craftsman whose craft led me
14:55into business. I immersed myself in
14:57business and have now started to figure
14:58it out. There is this new thing, it’s
15:01called the new labor, yes, people want
15:03freedom, they don’t want to go to an
15:05office from 8 to 5, or from 9 to 10.
15:08Now, digital platforms are emerging
15:09where you can connect. They connect A
15:11and B for you very easily.
15:13Uh-huh.
15:14They tell you: "Register as a legal
15:16entity, connect here, and we will give
15:19you work." There are many such
15:21platforms now. You can work as a tutor.
15:23So, you can work by changing batteries
15:26in scooters. Your business is changing
15:29batteries in scooters. You get paid by
15:32the platform, you connect, and you get
15:34paid, I don't know, maybe 100 rubles.
15:36or 200 rubles. per replacement. And so
15:39you drive around the city, they tell
15:41you where to change them, and you...is
15:43this your business, is it "
15:45entrepreneur-employment"?
15:47It is definitely employment.
15:49Write in the comments what you think,
15:50is this entrepreneurship or employment?
15:52Yes,
15:53there is a trend that Gen Z now adjusts
15:55their lifestyle to work, rather than
15:57the other way around.
15:59There is a great need for freedom,
16:01which leads to us having more and more
16:03freelancers, who are also like
16:04entrepreneurs because you don't have a
16:06boss. But the absence of a boss does
16:08not mean you are an entrepreneur,
16:10because there is new labor, slave labor
16:12, then employment. Now, the new labor
16:14is digital platforms, connected to
16:15hundreds of thousands of people who are
16:17in hyper-competition. As long as they
16:20perform something, they get money, but
16:22as soon as you get the flu, you don't
16:24get money. Yes,
16:25it turns out there is no social
16:27protection. You are an entrepreneur in
16:29the sense that you bear the risk for
16:31your own life. Got sick, became
16:33homeless. That’s your
16:34entrepreneurship.
16:35But for the company, it is, of course,
16:37super profitable. You understand, right
16:38? Imagine how profitable this is for
16:40the company. I used to have 300
16:42couriers working for me, they were
16:44employed, under contract, with 4 weeks
16:47of paid vacation a year and insurance.
16:50We provided them with vehicles,
16:51resources, and so on. Now, if you are a
16:54courier, you use your own vehicle, you
16:57don't count the depreciation, it's
16:59piecework pay, as long as you function,
17:01you get money. As soon as you stop
17:04functioning, that’s it.
17:10I want to refer to the podcast with
17:12Gleb Solomin, which happened almost 2
17:14years ago now. In that podcast, you
17:17predicted trends like business setups
17:20for sellers and AI aggregators.
17:23Actually, those are the niches that
17:24have been really relevant lately. Even
17:26in my circle, there are three people
17:29who own AI aggregators. So the
17:31competition, the market is already
17:32overcrowded. I want to update this map.
17:36What opportunities are there now? Let's
17:38make predictions for the next 2 years.
17:41Where are there too many people and
17:43where are there too few? There are
17:45great opportunities where there are few
17:46people. There are business models that
17:48five people are involved in, and there
17:49are business models that 5,000 people
17:51are involved in. Are there going to be
17:53guys who work 18 hours a day without
17:56days off? Well, that’s like
17:57super-competition. Like soccer? Soccer,
17:59by the way, 400 million people are
18:01trying to play. Entrepreneurship
18:02involves more, 800 million. Actually,
18:04the most competitive sport in the world
18:06is entrepreneurship, right? Well, there
18:07are sub-sports there. It is divided
18:09into sub-sports. Many. And there are
18:10types where there are many people, and
18:12where there are few. Where are there
18:13many people? In purely digital business
18:15. Everyone dreams of just making an app
18:18, coding some thing so that it gets
18:21traffic. Everyone dreams of just
18:23sitting at a computer so there wouldn't
18:25be any, like how you opened studios,
18:26right? That's, damn, studios. That
18:29means, damn, some desks, some people,
18:32something there, yeah, access, a
18:33barrier, you know, it scares people a
18:35lot. Manufacturing, yes, manufacturing
18:39a robot, imagine, 1,000 different parts
18:41from all over the world must come
18:43together in one point to assemble a
18:45robot. If one part doesn't arrive, some
18:48rubber band, you won't assemble the
18:50robot. That scares people. That's why
18:52everyone now wants, you know, just to
18:54sit at a computer, have someone show
18:56you what product to buy in China. You
18:58just pressed a button, you don't want
19:00to see any warehouse from the inside,
19:02or any customs, nothing. A second
19:04service solved all your problems, it
19:06ended up in the warehouse, you listed
19:08it online, you just—people want to
19:10sit at a computer so there are no
19:12people, no atoms, nothing. Yes, there
19:15are tens of millions of people in total
19:17competition there. Online services,
19:19bots, SaaS also fall into this category
19:21.
19:21That's it. Yes. When I, for example,
19:24was involved in fast food delivery,
19:25these dark stores from which an order
19:27is made in 15 minutes, I traveled to
19:29all countries in the world with over
19:30100 million people, looking for who was
19:32doing this to buy a stake. I was
19:35surprised that in each country there
19:37were at most five people. Can you
19:39imagine, right? A business model of
19:42this size, just of this size. This is
19:45just selling food. A new way, a new way
19:49to sell food has appeared. Do you know
19:52how many deliveries there are in Moscow
19:53per day? Millions of deliveries a day
19:56of these 15-minute ones, back when
19:57Utkonos went bankrupt, then delivered
19:59slowly, after a few days. And these
20:02turned out to be, these dark stores, a
20:05very successful model. Very successful.
20:07Imagine, you arrive in India and there
20:09are 10 million people making apps
20:11and no one is doing dark stores.
20:12Yes. And three people, three are doing
20:15dark stores. Three. In the whole
20:18country. Can you imagine? Because as
20:22soon as you have to rent some basement,
20:25install some shelving, put milk in
20:29there, you know? Yeah. Oh, forget it,
20:32I’ll need to...no, no, I just want...
20:35no, I want it like this. A business
20:38where I can just do this, and the money
20:40would come in. That is why the biggest
20:44opportunity right now, number one, the
20:46biggest opportunity for the next 7
20:48years where most successful new
20:50businesses will be created, is
20:52combining artificial intelligence with
20:54the offline world. Within this master
20:57opportunity, there are 100
20:59sub-opportunities. Who will bring
21:02artificial intelligence to lawyers? It
21:04won't bring itself. Who will bring
21:06artificial intelligence to farmers?
21:09Well, those are the same SaaS services.
21:11No, but there is an offline part there.
21:13Everyone wants it to be purely online,
21:15right, for it to be a purely digital
21:17business, with no offline element at
21:19all. But unfortunately, this
21:21implementation is a very big part, yes.
21:23For example, every production site
21:26might need a unique LLM that is trained
21:29on the data from that specific site.
21:33Not from some internet data, but
21:35specifically from that site's data;
21:37selling the owner the idea that we will
21:40collect data, train an LLM, and
21:42implement it—you see, that’s a huge
21:44, huge job. It's just work that needs
21:48to be done. Accordingly, it requires "
21:51getting your hands dirty," it's very
21:52difficult. And nobody wants to deal
21:54with that. Everyone wants to build a
21:56product. Everyone wants to build a
21:58product that sells itself, but it
22:01doesn't work like that. Nowadays, it
22:03has become easier to build a product
22:05than to sell one. I’ve met with 600
22:07unicorn founders personally, one-on-one
22:09, over the last two years. They are all
22:12selling, and their main expenses are on
22:15sales. You look at most entrepreneurs,
22:17they hacked together some app thinking
22:18it would sell itself, but nothing sells
22:20itself anymore—the world is too noisy
22:22, nothing sells itself. That’s the
22:24biggest opportunity from my point of
22:26view. Cool. So, bringing AI into
22:28offline niches. And what else?
22:30Robots will be like the new cars. Yes,
22:32in 10 years there will potentially be
22:34more robots than cars. Just as car
22:37dealers and service centers appeared
22:39when cars emerged, the next 10 years
22:42will see robot importers—mainly from
22:44China—and robot dealers who
22:46understand and know how to implement
22:48them, what costs less; this will start
22:51with warehouses and then move to
22:53production. Don't think about that home
22:56robot that will clean the dishes after
22:58a party. That will come last. You'll be
23:0140 years old, and you'll still be
23:02cleaning up dishes after a party. There
23:03will be so many robots, right? Who is
23:05going to maintain these robots? Air
23:07conditioners are always breaking. Air
23:09conditioner maintenance is a big
23:11business. Five unicorns have emerged in
23:14the last 3 months that have applied
23:15artificial intelligence to the
23:17maintenance of AC, heating, and other
23:19basic systems. It’s a giant market
23:21that nobody wants to deal with. Nobody
23:23wants to work in it. In general, there
23:25are many opportunities. We are
23:26currently living in a good time for
23:28entrepreneurs because thousands of new
23:29business models will appear. When
23:31electricity appeared, the entire
23:33economy had to be rebuilt around the
23:35fact that power was available from an
23:37outlet. Now the entire economy must be
23:39rebuilt because artificial intelligence
23:41has arrived. This means it’s a
23:42fundamental, broad technology that
23:44affects every process. There will be
23:46processes; programming was the first to
23:48be restructured. Programming today
23:49doesn't happen the way it did 10 years
23:51ago. Everything has changed. Law will
23:53be next, because it’s purely
23:54language-based. The very last to use it
23:56will be a farmer in the south of Ufa.
23:58He will be the last one, when robots
24:00are already flying everywhere. He’ll
24:02say: "Fine, I’ll install it too, let
24:04AI decide what to plant." We have huge
24:07work ahead of us, a redistribution of
24:09the economy. And nobody wants to do
24:11this work. It's a totally red ocean in
24:13the app market. Any app that gains any
24:15traction—the data is open, everyone
24:17sees what’s growing and how much
24:19it’s making. As soon as an app
24:21appears. There are immediately 100
24:24copies. Right away, in 2 days. Two days
24:27later, some game appears that has
24:29gained a little momentum. Thousands of
24:32studios copy that game and release the
24:34exact same thing.
24:35Yes. So we’ve figured out there are
24:37many products, lots of noise, it’s
24:39hard to sell, and the attention economy
24:40could be an opportunity.
24:4270%of businesses need to be convinced
24:44to build a content farm. Right now,
24:46they aren't doing it. There’s a huge
24:48number of businesses doing cool things,
24:50but they aren't telling anyone about it
24:52. Yes, that’s a mistake. Already in
24:54many sectors, more than 50%of decisions
24:57are being made by customers with AI.
24:59They ask: "AI, who should I buy this
25:02from?" And now you have to go and say:
25:05"I typed' best tile manufacturer in
25:06Krasnoyarsk 'into the AI. You aren't
25:09there. Why aren't you there? Let’s
25:12make sure you are there. 50%of people
25:14are making decisions this way. So,
25:15imagine you have a podcast studio in
25:17Kazan, right?
25:18Yes, in Kazan and Moscow.
25:20Which podcast studio should I choose in
25:22Kazan? Find me the top three studios by
25:25price-to-quality ratio and recommend
25:27which one to take. Best
25:28price-to-quality ratio, atmosphere,
25:30reliability, blah-blah-blah, 10 reasons
25:33, 17,000 rubles. Package deal,
25:35blah-blah-blah, under-camp spot. How
25:37much are businesses willing to pay
25:39right now for artificial intelligence
25:41to magically produce you? You go to an
25:44owner and say," Look, you’re not
25:46there, you don't exist. I can make it
25:49so that you exist. "These are simple
25:51opportunities, the easiest ones right
25:53now, which is selling this optimization
25:55through artificial intelligence. But in
25:58essence, you need to walk around your
26:01city and see where new technologies can
26:03be implemented, where something can be
26:05significantly improved. Speaking of
26:10crises, Oscar, you are a person who has
26:12been through a number of crises. The
26:14Asian financial crisis, the 2008 crisis
26:17,
26:17the collapse of the Soviet Union,
26:19the coronavirus recession; is the
26:21current crisis similar to those or is
26:23it something completely different? It
26:26lasts longer, if we talk about 2008.
26:29Everything collapsed in September.
26:30Already, in principle, by February of
26:32the next year, there was light at the
26:34end of the tunnel, yes. Accordingly,
26:36there was the ninety-eighth year, there
26:38was also a very sharp rebound there,
26:40yes. Accordingly, bam, pop, and in a
26:42couple of months there was
26:44stabilization—a short shock, you know
26:46, like Black Friday, a shock, Lehman
26:48Brothers, a shock, and then a little
26:50later we actually had a boom. After the
26:53coronavirus, 2021 also turned out to be
26:55the best year. In human history for
26:57exits, yes, the largest number of exits
26:59, the largest amount of money printed,
27:01for me 2021 was also the best year.
27:03These were short ones like:" Oh, it's
27:05going to be very, very bad, "and then
27:06suddenly, it let go. Uh, this crisis is
27:09a little more sluggish, it's dragging
27:11on, and there’s no light at the end
27:13of the tunnel yet. The contributing
27:15energy is the emergence of artificial
27:17intelligence. It amplifies, yes, and
27:19there is what pulls us down—wars. The
27:22world right now is in a bipolar state.
27:24Where is the world located? Yes, we are
27:25also in that world, no matter how much
27:27we think we are on a separate planet. A
27:29bubble. A bubble in big artificial
27:32intelligence. The top 30 companies in
27:36AI raised 85%of all money this year,
27:39just 30 companies. The same companies
27:43are sucking up all the world's money,
27:44all the world's talent. Yes, well,
27:46there were simply no such numbers even
27:47during the dot-com era. Such numbers.
27:50This is just a different order of
27:51magnitude. This order of magnitude is
27:53like countries, like the GDP of nations
27:55. Well, that's the order of magnitude.
27:57Big AI is in a bubble, everything is
27:59close. The other 10 million companies.
28:01A lot, too many are doing AI right now.
28:03Yes, everyone is doing AI. Everything
28:06around AI is in a boom. A boom, yes.
28:09That remaining 85 is like 30 companies,
28:12then another 10. Everything that isn't
28:14AI. On the contrary, we have a bipolar
28:15situation, right? A bubble, hype, a
28:18boom. And everything that isn't AI is
28:20in a depression. Because AI is, in a
28:23sense, draining all the world's
28:25resources; resources are limited, and
28:27it consumes a lot. So people say," Yeah
28:30, that's cool, but you're making cups,
28:33and you say your payback is 3 years, "
28:35and they say," Yeah, cups are cool. ""
28:39But, man, not now; we’re building AI,
28:41we'll get to that later. "That is why
28:45so many sectors are underfunded.
28:47Fintech is still doing okay, but almost
28:49everything else, like e-commerce,
28:50almost everything. Even from crypto, a
28:52lot of money has moved into AI, so
28:54liquidity has been drawn out. So, this
28:56is what the world looks like right now.
28:58All the brains, all the money, all the
29:01capital are occupied by a major
29:02restructuring. Almost all entrepreneurs
29:06in the world are now forced to work for
29:09those few companies that are receiving
29:11funding. And they are receiving a lot
29:14of funding. The winner takes all.
29:16And if we talk about Russia,
29:18in Russia, after a long period of high
29:20interest rates, very few businesses can
29:22earn 30%. It’s just that the cost of
29:26capital is higher than the ability of
29:27nature to create value, as it were. So
29:30we have this balance between inflation
29:31and conditions for business, right?
29:33Accordingly, inflation is the
29:35arch-enemy, especially runaway
29:37inflation. So, inflation is appearing
29:40again, and there is pressure to raise
29:43the rate again, even though everyone
29:45wants a rate cut to let businesses
29:47breathe. But it's impossible to lower
29:49the rate if you have inflation, you
29:51understand? Yes, it's like a struggle.
29:53You choose between two evils to avoid
29:55an even greater evil. No one can
29:57influence this. It's just nature. These
29:59are the laws of nature, right? You have
30:01a tiger or a lion there, take your pick
30:02. You've just ended up in a situation
30:04where there are no other options. The
30:07Central Bank wants to lower the rate,
30:08and they are under pressure, but they
30:10cannot do it. And so we have this
30:12crisis of very high cost of money, a
30:15turnover where everything becomes
30:17expensive, and many businesses cannot
30:19exist under these conditions. They are,
30:22in fact, a huge number of businesses
30:24are now working just for the sake of
30:26capital. They give everything away, or
30:28give away more than they earn. And we
30:31have a crisis of short cycles, it’s
30:33very difficult to carry out long-term
30:35planning when you don't know what will
30:37happen by Friday. But for young
30:39entrepreneurs, all of this makes no
30:41difference. Everything I just said is
30:43irrelevant because if you are building
30:45a new business, you will be reaping the
30:47harvest. In 5-7 years, you are building
30:51—yes, you will have some construction
30:54time to create something that can
30:56provide for you, your family, and your
30:59future. Can you predict what the
31:01weather will be like in 7 years? If
31:03someone is winning in 7 years, it will
31:06be the person who started today.
31:08Correspondingly, right now, today,
31:10those who are winning are the people
31:11who started 4 or 6 years ago. Yes, when
31:14great times come—all crises—after
31:15every night, there has been a day.
31:18There has always been a day, and when
31:19the day arrived, those who started
31:21building at night were the winners, you
31:22see? So,
31:23new variables, because,
31:24yes, you have a wave coming. And you,
31:26you always have a wave coming. Always.
31:29If you start when the day has already
31:30come, you are just starting to build,
31:32but the hotels are already standing
31:33there.
31:34Oskar, where should one start?
31:35You need two things. An entrepreneur
31:37who thinks about the future. You need,
31:39of course, you need some positive
31:41scenario in the future. It cannot be
31:43Armageddon for you. Yes, if everything
31:45is going to hell, what is there to
31:46build? You need some kind of bright
31:48future. Yes, absolutely. Russia is a
31:50resource-based economy. All that
31:52artificial intelligence needs is watts
31:54and tons. It needs a lot of energy and
31:55a lot of resources. All the
31:57resource-based economies of the world
31:59will do well over the next 20 years.
32:00The position is good. We are playing
32:02poker. We have two aces. Not three, but
32:04two. You need two things: a bright
32:06future. And you need some kind of
32:08takeoff power. Today you must have some
32:10conditions to get off the ground. Yes,
32:12you need a wave in the future and
32:14takeoff power today. Takeoff power
32:17today can be—what's good about a
32:18crisis is that personnel is available.
32:20When a boom is happening, you can't
32:23hire anyone, they are all busy; so,
32:25like, there is staff, there are
32:27available people—this is good. And
32:30you need some kind of reason, some
32:32reason for a new Tinkov to appear. 2007
32:36. He says:" I want to compete with
32:38Sberbank. "A bright future, yes, and I
32:41need some kind of—what kind of
32:42takeoff power? The emergence of the
32:45mobile phone, the internet—yes, you
32:47can build a bank without branches. That
32:49is takeoff power. The 2008 crisis. He
32:51is small, the banks are big, the ship
32:53is large, yes. Accordingly, he is fast,
32:55agile, yes. He gets a chance, yes.
32:58While all the big banks are busy with,
32:59damn, huge problems, he’s just
33:01selling cards over there,
33:02click-click-click-click, yeah.
33:04Accordingly—speed. Now there is a
33:05reason for takeoff, right? You are
33:07AI-first, other companies aren't
33:09AI-first, you have takeoff power, you
33:11have an advantage. So now there is a
33:13reason to take off, there is
33:15accessibility, and there is a bright
33:16future. We cannot predict. We just have
33:18to say, we cannot predict. I think
33:20about crises a lot, yes. I think about
33:22it for myself too, yes. Here’s the
33:23first law: never cut down a tree in
33:26winter. That’s for already existing
33:27businesses, right? It’s winter, and
33:29you’re cutting down the tree. Well,
33:30right now, many people have that, you
33:32know, temptation to cut, well, to
33:34downsize and all that. When everyone is
33:35going in the opposite direction, you
33:37have to be contrarian, right? A little
33:39bit contrarian. If you’re always
33:41dancing with the gorilla, wherever the
33:42wind blows, that’s where you fly, but
33:44then you’re with everyone else, and
33:46where you are, there are always a lot
33:47of people. Sooner or later, you need to
33:51have at least some contrarian idea, at
33:53least one.
33:54For example,
33:56right now, for instance, nobody wants
33:57to develop personal brands. There’s a
33:59lot of fear, a lot of problems, and you
34:01, on the contrary, are developing it at
34:02that moment. You are going against the
34:04grain. Many great fortunes were made by
34:07people who did something when there was
34:09blood in the streets. They just acted,
34:12stayed level-headed, and you must have
34:14some contrarian idea, something that
34:16not everyone thinks. That’s why I’m
34:18taking action right now, yes. And
34:19it’s kind of interesting when you
34:21study history, right, accordingly, what
34:23we call a crisis and what we call a
34:25normal year. It’s very interesting.
34:27I’ve been observing this for 30 years
34:29, yes. And it usually turns out that
34:32when a boom year happens, a boom, a
34:36total anomaly upward, people call that
34:39a normal year. When a normal year
34:42happens, people call it a crisis. Just
34:46a normal year. It’s like people have
34:48this sort of mental swap. You can take
34:50almost any industry and look at the
34:52thirty-year charts, of profits. It is
34:55always wave-like. Always. Uh-huh.
34:57Yes, in nature it’s everything,
34:59everything. There are no straight lines
35:01in nature. NVIDIA, the most valuable
35:03company in the world right now, was
35:04close to bankruptcy five times. Five
35:06times, like, well, it was practically
35:09bankrupt, yeah. Now, damn, it’s
35:11making 50 billion dollars in profit. If
35:14you look at any industry, for 30 years,
35:17a large portion, 80%of the profit was
35:19made in 3 years out of thirty. It’s
35:22always like that. It’s always like
35:24that. And you can’t guess which 3
35:26years those will be, can you? You can't
35:28just decide in advance:" Oh, I'll only
35:30do farming in 2012 and 2018, because
35:33that's where all the profit is. "No,
35:35you have to work all 30 years to
35:37capture those 3 years. Warren Buffett
35:40has been investing for 85 years, but he
35:42made almost all his returns in 12 of
35:44them, yet he couldn't have known in
35:46advance which 12 years those would be.
35:49Yes, you can't know in advance, you
35:50have to be in the game. What people
35:51usually do is precisely pull out of the
35:53game. And when the best day comes, they
35:55aren't in the game. In fact, in public
35:58markets, it's not even years, but days.
36:01Days. There are days; if you're not in
36:04the market for those 10 days, you
36:06missed 80%of the return.
36:08It's like tulips for March 8th.
36:09Well, yes, roughly like that, yes. Well
36:11, imagine Samsung published its report
36:15yesterday. Samsung will make more
36:17profit this year than in the last 40
36:20years combined. This is a normal year.
36:22They could say right now:" You know,
36:25this is a normal year, this is an
36:27anomaly to the upside, an absolute
36:29anomaly. "Yes. Consequently, in essence
36:31, the average year that occurred over
36:33the last 50 years, people call a crisis
36:35year. When a good year happens, what
36:37actually happens? It’s almost the
36:39same thing time after time. People pay
36:41out this super-profit as dividends, and
36:44when a crisis year hits, they have no
36:47resources and businesses close down.
36:51There was a fat year. Three companies
36:54set aside funds, you know, for safety.
36:56Then a crisis year hits, half the
36:58companies exit the business entirely,
37:00but these ones make it through and
37:02survive to the next wave, and the next,
37:04and the next. Entrepreneurs very often
37:06make this mistake. Payouts, dividends,
37:08even taking out loans. As soon as
37:10things start going well, they are
37:11already dipping into the future. They
37:12say:" Oh, we're earning this much a
37:14month, we can take a loan now and pay
37:15out dividends. "
37:16That's the basic picture, I agree.
37:18Yes. Yes. And then a normal year comes,
37:20and their debt-to-profit ratio is no
37:23longer two, but eight. Right? The bank
37:25asks for the money back, and there’s
37:27no money. It’s all short-term vision,
37:29right? Accordingly, you are essentially
37:31choosing what to do in life. You do it
37:33for a long time, for many years not
37:35knowing if you're right or wrong, and
37:37then a wave comes, you become a
37:39bottleneck at some point, yeah, for
37:41some reason something happened. Now
37:43chips, for some reason memory
37:44manufacturers, yes, for a very long
37:46time we had the amount of memory—on
37:48such a small chip you can store 2 TB,
37:50yes, it became cheaper, cheaper,
37:52cheaper, cheaper. They were barely
37:54scraping by back then. Could they have
37:56predicted that in those trillions of
37:58data centers, memory would be the most
38:00important thing? A wave came, and they
38:02started making so much money that
38:03employees sued them for it. They made
38:05such huge profits that their employees
38:07sued their employer and managed to get
38:09a half-million-dollar payout. A bonus
38:11for every employee. They said," You're
38:13selling for 10 times the price, but
38:14you're paying us the same money. "
38:16That's not fair. Yes, they filed a
38:17lawsuit. That's the situation. I went
38:19through the same thing. I was working
38:21in fast grocery delivery. It is very
38:23hard to make the unit economics work.
38:24Couriers earn a lot, while margins are
38:27slim. We were pinching pennies. We had
38:30projects aimed at saving just one cent
38:32per order. One single cent. How do you
38:35pick orders at the warehouse? Instead
38:37of one order, you grab three at once.
38:40You walk through, picking up three
38:41orders at the same time. That’s 3%
38:43more efficient than picking one order
38:46after another. That was the level of
38:49projects we had just to survive. Then
38:53COVID-19 hits, everyone is locked at
38:56home, demand triples, and the average
39:00check grows by 60%. The margin
39:04increases by 8%and your business is
39:07suddenly worth a billion.
39:09That is really cool. So, you really do
39:11need to be patient. But how do you
39:13avoid a mistake when choosing a niche?
39:15After all, a mistake can be fatal.
39:17Luck. Everyone wants to be an engineer,
39:19for example, right? You arrive at your
39:21first year, and you have to pick where
39:22to put your checkmark. Which path do
39:24you choose? Something like bridge
39:26building or AI engineering. Back in
39:282015, someone checked the box:" I want
39:30to build bridges. "I want to be an
39:33electrical engineer, someone else
39:35checked AI engineer. Ten years have
39:38passed; the AI engineer makes $ 2
39:40million a year, while the bridge
39:43builder makes $ 150,000 a year. When it
39:46was 2015 and they were choosing, was
39:49there any way to predict that AI would
39:52be in 100 times more demand than bridge
39:54construction? And that electrical
39:56engineer building equipment, he’s in
39:58the middle making $ 500,000 because
40:00they’re building data centers now, so
40:01they’re the most in-demand people.
40:03It’s an element of luck. You choose
40:05what to do in life and head in that
40:07direction for a while. There’s a
40:09chance your branch will wither, but
40:11there’s a chance your branch will
40:12become the most important in history.
40:14And that is impossible to predict.
40:16Could the founder of Nvidia have
40:18predicted it? He was making graphics
40:20cards for video games. Could he have
40:22predicted those cards would be used for
40:24Bitcoin mining? The same cards? Could
40:27he have predicted that artificial
40:29intelligence would run on graphics
40:31cards and chips? No, of course not. But
40:34if you find yourself on a dry branch
40:36that’s withering, you have to jump to
40:38another one, obviously. So, you can go
40:40on telling everyone for the rest of
40:41your life how you chose this path. It
40:43was the right thing to do. I mean, you
40:45can jump, of course, you can jump,
40:47retrain, regroup, but there's an
40:48element of luck involved here, yes.
40:51After university, I chose fashion,
40:54clothing. When I chose clothing and
40:57footwear, I didn't know, the
40:58information didn't exist in my head
41:00that it was one of the largest markets
41:02in the world. For people, it is very
41:04important how they look. The market for
41:06just clothing and footwear in Russia
41:08was 50 billion dollars. Yes, it is a
41:10huge market. When I was starting, yes,
41:11it was already a giant market. I didn't
41:13know it was that big. The numbers were
41:15growing. I just couldn't believe it,
41:17like, how can I sell so much? Who are
41:19the people buying all of this? And
41:21someone went into, for example, like,
41:23some small business. That is an element
41:25of luck. Well, when you get older, you
41:27already understand how the global
41:29economy works, what segments exist,
41:30what size those segments are, right?
41:33And more or less you already understand
41:35that if you're messing around with some
41:36small thing, something very small, some
41:38super-niche, right, you won't be
41:40playing in the Champions League. Right
41:46now, a large number of companies are
41:47cutting staff, optimizing costs,
41:48replacing certain positions, and so on.
41:51That is a lie. It has been 4 years of
41:53artificial intelligence. 4 years.
41:56ChatGPT appeared 4 years ago. There is
42:00not a single fact confirming that the
42:02number of jobs is shrinking because of
42:05it. Statistics just came out showing
42:09that companies that adopt artificial
42:11intelligence the most are hiring 10-20%
42:13more new employees than companies that
42:16don't. Accordingly, facts are emerging
42:19that contradict the myth. There is a
42:21myth, yes, and facts come out that are
42:22the opposite, yes, the number of
42:24vacancies is growing. I am talking
42:26about the world now, yes, we have a
42:28unique situation, yes, we have other
42:29forces, not artificial intelligence.
42:32Even in customer service, even there,
42:34there are no figures yet confirming a
42:36significant decrease, yes, even those
42:38who were laid off are now being
42:40partially rehired. Look, a very simple
42:43example, yes, flawed thinking. It is
42:46flawed, it sounds very logical, but it
42:49is flawed. My grandmother had six
42:52outfits in her entire life. At the end
42:55of her life, she remembered them, she
42:57knew when she wore what. She took care
42:59of them, she mended them. My
43:01grandfather only had two suits in total
43:03. He would just rotate them and that
43:04was it. Production appeared in China to
43:07make cheap dresses, right, you can buy
43:09a dress on AliExpress for 5 bucks. An
43:12outfit for 5 bucks, for 3 dollars, for
43:152 dollars. Yeah. The cost of a dress,
43:18of clothing, became so cheap. For my
43:21grandmother, one outfit cost like 2
43:23months of work, for example. Now, for
43:26any average person, a piece of clothing
43:29costs about half an hour of work. It
43:32became that much cheaper, right?
43:33That’s the logic. Now the clothing
43:35market should drop by 95%. By 99%.
43:40Because now you can meet the same
43:43demand 99%cheaper. All the girls in the
43:46world could say:" Cool, now I can spend
43:49only 30 dollars on dresses for my
43:51entire life. "How many girls said that?
43:54What happened instead? The average
43:57woman buys 100 items a year. It turns
44:00out the amount of money spent has even
44:03grown relative to salary. The number of
44:05items has grown hundreds of times over.
44:07Hundreds. Imagine a lawyer in
44:09artificial intelligence. When I
44:11invested in a company, I paid 25,000
44:12dollars to lawyers to draft the
44:14contract. Then the so-called Safe Note
44:16appeared. It’s a standard contract
44:18that everyone adopted. Yeah, no need to
44:20spend 25,000 dollars anymore. Safe Note
44:23in DocuSign. That’s it, it would seem
44:25all the lawyers should go out of, well,
44:27those who did this, should go bankrupt.
44:29Nothing of the sort. And now artificial
44:31intelligence has arrived. Now any
44:32contract, well, it’s not needed. It
44:34doesn’t cost 25,000 dollars now, or
44:36its cost was 10,000 dollars, right, 10
44:39hours of a lawyer’s work. Now its
44:41cost is 100 dollars, 2 minutes of a
44:43lawyer’s time. Will this lead to the
44:46legal market falling by 10 times? No,
44:48of course not. We will just consume 100
44:51times more. When a contract costs 10
44:55bucks or 100 bucks, we will make many
44:57more contracts. People will sue over
45:01everything. How was it before? Oh, I
45:03need to file a lawsuit, right, sue
45:05someone, that’s, damn, I have to hire
45:07a lawyer. Last year I looked, in Brazil
45:10there were 93 million lawsuits against
45:12companies. 93 million. How many
45:15lawsuits do you think there are in
45:17Russia per year?
45:17Tens of millions.
45:18already. 43 million. 43 million a year.
45:22How many do you think there will be in
45:2410 years? There will be 500 million.
45:26Legal stuff will just become, like,
45:28artificial intelligences will argue
45:30among themselves. That’s it, they
45:31will just constantly be arguing. So,
45:34you need to read, find out, right, they
45:36delivered a kitchen to you, you think
45:37something is wrong, you need to read
45:39the contract, find out what is written
45:41there, and so on. So, you just ask
45:44about the contract, I'm not happy with
45:46this and that. Write me a formal
45:47complaint. It gives you the document
45:49right away, and you send it off. Yeah,
45:51it's become easy, so easy. 5 seconds.
45:54And the work for lawyers, even this
45:56remaining 10%that they do, becomes more
45:58than what there was initially. It's
46:01counterintuitive. People don't realize
46:03that it's like this, yeah, as if we're
46:05just located here. We have an infinite,
46:07absolute, total abundance of problems
46:10in the world that can be solved. An
46:12infinite number of unrealized ideas.
46:16Because our intelligence has doubled—
46:18we've merely doubled our intelligence.
46:19Doubled, right? There was all of human
46:22intelligence, 8.2 billion brains. It is
46:24roughly comparable to all the data
46:26centers currently in the world in terms
46:28of computing power. We are now going to
46:30triple it. We will have twice as much
46:32computing power in data centers than in
46:34all human brains combined. But, first
46:37of all, intelligence isn't the only
46:38bottleneck, right. What absolutely
46:40won't change is entrepreneurship. It
46:43won't change at all. People don't
46:45understand the law of abundance. Uh-huh
46:47.
46:47That when our dresses became 100 times
46:49cheaper, we started consuming them
46:511,000 times more. An average girl who
46:53is about to pass away now, unlike my
46:54grandmother, won't be able to name even
46:56a single outfit she wore 20 years ago.
46:58Not one. What quantity of items are we
47:00even ready to consume? I sometimes
47:04think, yeah, like 500 a year, 1,000 a
47:06year, 10,000 a year, 100,000 items a
47:09year. You know, over there in America,
47:12every family has a 300-meter house and
47:14also...
47:15self-storage. They rent garages to
47:17store their things. Yes, they buy
47:18things just to store other things in
47:20them.
47:21Now, thanks to artificial intelligence,
47:22even more abundance awaits us.
47:24Total abundance. Can we draw a
47:25correlation to the end of the 19th
47:27century, when the machine came along,
47:29the industrial revolution, there were
47:31more things, and people started living
47:33better? Every generation has more
47:36access to everything, but people don't
47:38feel it that way because our moronic
47:40human monkey brain values what is rare.
47:43There were diamonds; dirtier ones cost
47:46less, clearer ones cost more because
47:48they were rarer. Then lab-grown
47:50diamonds appeared. Perfect, absolutely
47:54indistinguishable chemical and physical
47:56structures. Now, the purest lab
47:59diamonds cost less than slightly flawed
48:02ones. Do you understand how human logic
48:05works? Now the same people who told you
48:07," This one is the purest, "are saying,
48:10" Take one that's slightly flawed. "
48:12Humans value what is rare. Why does
48:14lobster cost more than shrimp?
48:15Because of the population, apparently.
48:16Shrimp tastes better than lobster,
48:18admit it. Uh-huh. Tastier than a shrimp
48:22. Even if your status is higher than a
48:25king's 200 years ago, even if you had
48:27those castles now, no one wants to live
48:29in villages, and these palaces are sold
48:31for a euro. You can buy a house and
48:35live like Francesco de' Medici the
48:37Third for a dollar, sure, but nobody
48:39wants to live there. You can live with
48:42a library, with access. Your children
48:45don't die from diseases, you get help,
48:47yes, it's just that you won't feel good
48:49because we play status games, and we
48:50still suffer anyway. We have an
48:53epidemic of depression, an epidemic of
48:55insomnia, an epidemic of anxiety. Not
48:57because things have gotten worse for us
48:58, no, it's just that these games
49:00continue. We make ourselves sick with
49:02the information flow into our heads,
49:04with the lifestyle we have chosen. But
49:06that is why people will suffer, no
49:07matter what happens. People will just
49:09complain, yes, in 10 years people will
49:12be flying on a plane at supersonic
49:14speed at an altitude of 10,000 meters.
49:17They will be playing Counter-Strike
49:19against each other over the network
49:21with their best friend and be like:" I
49:24hate this airline. There's lag here,
49:26the ping is 32, not 12. I will never
49:29fly with this airline again. "He is
49:32flying in the air across the planet,
49:35playing Counter-Strike, right, and will
49:38be super unhappy, all while not even
49:40working. That is human psychology. We
49:44can suffer even in absolute paradise.
49:46We will live in a world of abundance,
49:48unhappy. There will be an epidemic,
49:50depression, because there's no meaning,
49:51yes, the meaning is fading.
49:53Intelligence will be in abundance. We
49:54will have an abundance of intelligence,
49:56but intelligence is not the main
49:57bottleneck. We have doubled
49:59intelligence in the world over the last
50:014 years. Where is the doubling of the
50:03global economy? There is no doubling of
50:04the global economy. We already had
50:06enough intelligence. It was doubled.
50:08The bottleneck is elsewhere. Courage is
50:11the bottleneck. Courage is the
50:14bottleneck. Where there is no courage,
50:17there is no entrepreneurship. When I
50:19worked at Boston Consulting, working as
50:21a consultant, one project of ours cost
50:233 million dollars. They hired us like
50:25brainiacs. We were intelligence, we
50:27were such young people, brainiacs. Give
50:29us a project, let us think something
50:31through. They would say:" Think this
50:32through. "Should Rosneft do
50:34petrochemicals in addition to oil? Okay
50:37, let us think it through. Saudi Aramco
50:38did petrochemicals. It worked out for
50:40them. Where we thought and thought and
50:43thought, after 3 months we came out and
50:45said:" Here is the logic, that's 3
50:47million bucks. "TNK-BP hired us to
50:50figure out where to build gas stations.
50:53Gas stations should be built on roads.
50:56Where there are many cars and few gas
50:58stations. So we looked at the whole
51:01country. Here are places where there
51:03are many cars but no gas stations.
51:04Build here, and that will be 3 million
51:06dollars. TNK-BP can ask the same
51:09question to artificial intelligence and
51:12get a better answer for 100 dollars.
51:15Before, TNK-BP would just hire Boston
51:18Consulting Group five times a year. Now
51:20, what if it costs 100 dollars? You can
51:23have Boston Consulting think through
51:25any question for you. My former
51:27colleagues created an artificial
51:29intelligence called Boston Consulting.
51:31There’s an analyst agent, a project
51:33leader agent—the entire Boston
51:34Consulting structure, everyone playing
51:36their roles. Accordingly, a request
51:38comes in, and they do the project using
51:40the same rules as Boston Consulting.
51:43The boss makes this agent work on
51:45weekends. Yes, now you can hire Boston
51:47Consulting to figure out where to host
51:49your mother-in-law's anniversary.
51:51Boston Consulting used to be highly
51:53valued, right? And when a person spent
51:553 million dollars, they received a
51:57conclusion. They would think:" I spent
52:003 million dollars, I need to build at
52:02least 50 gas stations to make it pay
52:04off. "But now, they've paid 100 bucks.
52:07It says:" Do A, B, and C. "Well,
52:10they're like:" I might not do it. "What
52:14difference does it make? The number of
52:15actions we take doesn't increase. The
52:17number of well-thought-out plans
52:19increases, but the number of results
52:21does not. Young entrepreneurs watch you
52:24, right?
52:24Mostly, yes?
52:26When I was an entrepreneur, imagine me
52:28in a village, 989 people living in that
52:32village. I opened an online store. I
52:35had questions: where is the best place
52:37to buy goods, how to negotiate with
52:39them, how to build my own brand. I had
52:4210 questions every single day. I would
52:44call friends, find other entrepreneurs,
52:46and ask:" How do you do this? "I didn't
52:48understand some types of contracts at
52:49all. I signed some contracts with a
52:51bank and just didn't understand them. I
52:54signed a contract stating that I
52:56personally bear responsibility, a
52:59guarantee of 500,000 dollars, if I lost
53:02that money. I didn't understand that
53:07this wasn't normal. Investors inserted
53:11those terms. If I put that contract
53:14into ChatGPT now and said:" Check this,
53:16is this normal? "It would say:" Bro,
53:18this personal guarantee, that is not
53:21normal at all. That’s not standard
53:23practice. "Can you imagine what a young
53:27entrepreneur has now? I used to send a
53:30contract to a friend and say:" Please
53:32read this, Max. "He’d say:" Yes,
53:34Oscar, I’ll read it. "Then you wait
53:36for 3 days. He says:" I haven't had
53:37time to read it yet. "Can you imagine
53:39the speed, the level of intelligence,
53:41and the error avoidance that exists
53:43today? Why aren't there more successful
53:45projects appearing? More successful
53:50projects aren't emerging. Many
53:56entrepreneurs are turning to
53:57masterminds for answers, and these
53:59masterminds aren't always honest. What
54:02role does the business community play
54:03today? For example, I see a huge number
54:06of masterminds popping up. Many are
54:08even speculating on these topics,
54:10closing their offline businesses to go
54:11teach others how to do business.
54:12This is a dying niche, you realize that
54:14, right? Yes, I understand. On one hand
54:16,
54:16because, well, I mean, hell, artificial
54:18intelligence answers 99%of your
54:21questions. What is left for you? One,
54:23well, I mean, the market is going to be
54:24significantly smaller.
54:26I understand why the market is so large
54:27. Because there is a large number of
54:29entrepreneurs who don't even have a P&L
54:31for their projects. There are many of
54:33them, very many. And, naturally, when
54:34you give this knowledge to a mastermind
54:36, they think:" This is cool. "I'm ready
54:38to pay for this, and so on.
54:39The role is changing drastically,
54:41because before, you needed a peer group
54:43specifically if you wanted
54:45international expansion, and you needed
54:47the experience of someone who had done
54:49it. And you say:" I have this problem,
54:52I'm opening in Ufa, it's remote, I
54:53don't know how to hire someone there,
54:55how to manage them, how to create a
54:57motivation system. You have a lot of
54:59questions, you've never opened in
55:01another city before. "And here your
55:03forum group tells you:" Dude, I've
55:05opened 10 new cities, I've tried five
55:06motivation systems. This worked, that
55:09didn't work. "The forum group was an
55:11exchange of experience, real experience
55:12. Yes, so you wouldn't just fantasize.
55:14Now, you come to a forum group and ask
55:16what kind of motivation system to use
55:19if you're opening a new city. Any
55:21decent forum group will tell you:" Well
55:23, tell us what you've already learned
55:24using artificial intelligence. "You no
55:26longer come to a forum group asking:"
55:28How do I make a motivation system? "The
55:30question is much deeper, but you're
55:32still stuck somewhere or you have a
55:33choice that isn't obvious. You come to
55:36a forum group for judgment, not for the
55:39transfer of knowledge or experience,
55:41but for judgment around issues. Because
55:44you, they can tell you:" Bro, you have
55:46a blind spot, you have a giant one, I
55:48see it, you don't. "It's an elephant in
55:50the room, you're emotional, you're just
55:52doing it, you're afraid, it's written
55:54in your eyes, you're scared. In reality
55:57, you come to us asking to choose A or
55:59B, but the real issue is that you're
56:01scared. That's the real question. That
56:03is a forum group. The forum group, it
56:05has shifted, yes. Accordingly, in the
56:07past, a huge number of entrepreneurs
56:08were needed to exchange knowledge,
56:10experience, real experience, not some
56:12fantasies, but experience. You couldn't
56:14, for example, say," I think so, "
56:16because that’s just your fantasy. I
56:18did it this way, and it worked out for
56:19me this way. That is a practitioner.
56:20During a crisis, you need to meet often
56:22. What do you see? What do you see? We
56:23are practitioners, right? Not some kind
56:25of theory. You are a podcast studio
56:27owner, and I am a podcast studio owner,
56:29right? What are you seeing over there
56:30in Krasnoyarsk? What, how, what’s the
56:32situation, right? A quick exchange,
56:35right, to find out the truth. We need
56:37to know the truth. Not what someone
56:39thinks in the news somewhere, right?
56:40But the truth. The truth is often
56:42different from myths and legends. The
56:44business community is definitely losing
56:46the role of solving pain points. How?
56:49The entire question of" how "is now
56:51being solved by artificial intelligence
56:52. There is still a remnant of people
56:54who don't use artificial intelligence
56:55to solve these issues. That is an
56:57endangered species. I have a friend who
56:59constantly calls me and asks me
57:00questions that could always be asked to
57:03ChatGPT. I say," Bro, okay, let me just
57:05type it in for you and forward you the
57:08message. "
57:08He wants to hear, to chat.
57:10In America, there is" how-to. "It's
57:11like a separate segment of books.
57:14How-to literature sales have fallen by
57:1668%year-over-year. Accordingly, people
57:19previously had the question of how to
57:20handle international expansion. There
57:21used to be a book on Amazon called" How
57:23to Do International Expansion "or
57:25something like that? Hundreds of
57:27thousands of questions for which there
57:29are books—sales are down 68%.
57:33Individually for you, specifically for
57:35your request, in your situation. A
57:37unique book for you, a personal book.
57:41That is why the business club has lost
57:42this role. What role hasn't the
57:43business club lost? Loneliness. The
57:46number of solo founders has doubled.
57:48Even more people are building on their
57:50own." Uh, I don't need anyone, I'm
57:53walking through puddles, "and,
57:54accordingly, I built all my businesses
57:56in partnership with someone. I have
57:59never once built a business alone. Not
58:00once. In general, enduring those 5
58:03years of building, it is very difficult
58:05. It is very, very emotionally
58:07difficult. People are super lonely.
58:09People become super successful and
58:12super unhappy, dissatisfied. There is
58:15no best friend, no good friends you can
58:18call. They are divorced from their
58:20wives because they spent 20 years
58:21building and forgot about everything
58:22else. Yes, right now the most common
58:24reason for joining a business club is
58:27to find people. No, I need this for
58:29business, to be better, and to find
58:32people, to find your own people who
58:34understand you, with whom you can
58:36discuss certain things.
58:39Well, a business club also solves
58:41education, not so much how, but where
58:43judgment is needed, accordingly, it's
58:45the frontier, what is happening right
58:47now. It works very poorly, for example,
58:50for choosing business models. Forum
58:52groups are about judgment, blind spots,
58:55and a safe environment where you can
58:58voice things you can't voice elsewhere.
59:01These are dilemmas, contradictions. So
59:04much in our life is determined by these
59:07contradictions, a huge number of fears,
59:10yes, emotions. We are very emotional.
59:12We all think that this is what decides
59:14everything. Actually, when we look at
59:16our own behavior, it's the opposite,
59:18and most importantly, we change our
59:19environment. I am trying to embed an
59:22idea into my brain. There were many
59:24ideas on this podcast. Perhaps someone
59:26heard an idea and said:" Ah, that's a
59:28cool idea, "but that's not enough.
59:30That's a very weak impact on yourself.
59:31The next step. How can I embed this
59:34idea and program it into my brain so
59:37that even at 4 a.m. on autopilot, this
59:40idea will work? How do you do that? The
59:43weakest idea. Some idea that sounded
59:49for 2 seconds and flew away. The impact
59:52on your life is non-existent. Perhaps
59:55it's the same thought that Aristotle
59:56said, right? A blogger copied Aristotle
59:59, a cool idea, they did it. Now you
1:00:03have the weakest impact that won't
1:00:05change your life at all. Reels, well,
1:00:080.001%. A stronger impact. A long
1:00:11podcast. A long podcast is an hour of
1:00:14battle, a conversation without editing.
1:00:18My status, yes, these same words, if
1:00:19they came from another person, would
1:00:21have less impact. It doesn't matter,
1:00:23the exact same words. If Elon Musk were
1:00:26sitting in front of you right now, the
1:00:28exact same words. A different impact,
1:00:3110x, 100x, but even that is not enough.
1:00:34A podcast, reading a book. A book is
1:00:37where you sit down with the author and
1:00:38spend 8 hours in the author's thinking.
1:00:42You immerse yourself in their worldview
1:00:44, you dive into their brain, into the
1:00:47author's brain, and stay there for 8
1:00:49hours, and they explain the whole
1:00:51skeleton of logic to you, not just a
1:00:53fragment. A forum group is a very
1:00:56strong impact. A very strong impact,
1:00:58because our brain is primitive, it
1:01:00hasn't changed in 10,000 years. It
1:01:04perceives stories that happen to the
1:01:06people around us as having the greatest
1:01:08weight. It has the greatest weight.
1:01:11What happened to you? You saw with your
1:01:14own eyes what happened to you. That is
1:01:17the most powerful force. What you have
1:01:19lived through. What you have lived
1:01:20through is the greatest strength. Your
1:01:22life story and your experiences are the
1:01:24greatest strength. In second place are
1:01:27the top 10 people around you. The top
1:01:2910 people around you. If you saw your
1:01:32buddy Andrew, whose father was an
1:01:35alcoholic, you grew up in the same
1:01:37neighborhood, all the girls rejected
1:01:40him, you fought together, you saw him
1:01:43wearing the same suit for two years,
1:01:46and now he is on the Forbes list. You
1:01:51saw that whole journey, how he opened
1:01:53his first business in a dark store,
1:01:56hauling things somewhere, you saw it
1:01:58all. So, you’re reading comments on
1:02:02YouTube saying," Yeah, all rich people
1:02:05are kids of some officials. "And you're
1:02:08like," No, I know Andrew. "Andrew had
1:02:11no one. He makes you suffer because you
1:02:13realize that you are just like him. He
1:02:15made it, you have no excuses. I wish
1:02:17everyone such an Andrew in their life.
1:02:20Well, they usually don't just appear in
1:02:22your life by accident; if the people
1:02:24around you are all divorced or have
1:02:26problems, then you think it's normal.
1:02:29That’s why, for example, my wife and
1:02:31I, now that we've been together for 20
1:02:33years, look for couples who have been
1:02:34together for 30 or 40 years; we want to
1:02:36surround ourselves with them, observe
1:02:37how they treat each other, you
1:02:39understand, right? You don't just need
1:02:42to read that they exist; you need to
1:02:45make sure you see them, that you become
1:02:48a witness. You must become a witness to
1:02:51the beautiful stories you want to
1:02:53happen in your own life. If you want to
1:02:57have a happy 50-year marriage, you must
1:02:59see such marriages with your own eyes.
1:03:02That is what a forum group does. A
1:03:04forum group gives you 10 people you
1:03:06choose, whose lives you become a
1:03:08witness to. In my forum group, we have
1:03:11been together for 16 years now. One of
1:03:13the members of my forum group lost
1:03:15everything. Lost everything twice. Just
1:03:18everything. He even thought about
1:03:20leaving the forum group, feeling he
1:03:21wasn't worthy. Now he is a bank owner.
1:03:26Now he is a very wealthy man again. I
1:03:29saw it. I saw it all. Now this story is
1:03:32alive in my head. It is alive in my
1:03:34mind. I am telling it to you right now.
1:03:37Yes, and someone is listening to it.
1:03:39The stories we surround ourselves with
1:03:42have an incredibly greater influence
1:03:44than statistics. If five businesses in
1:03:48your circle have closed, the economy
1:03:50has dropped by 50%. Your brain thinks
1:03:53so, it shows official statistics, it's
1:03:55minus two. You say:" What minus two?
1:03:57-50. "In our group, the most important
1:04:00thing is that we are proactive, not
1:04:01accidental. We don't leave our lives to
1:04:04random chance. Before, it was just luck
1:04:07. I got into university. Some computer,
1:04:10a random student allocator put me in
1:04:13the same room as Philip. We sat in the
1:04:16same room and said:" Hi, I'm Oscar, hi,
1:04:19I'm Philip. Since we're in the same
1:04:20room, let's be friends. "As it turned
1:04:22out, Philip plays a crucial role in my
1:04:24life. In the end, Philip brought me the
1:04:26two most profitable deals of my life.
1:04:28Not everyone is that lucky. Some were
1:04:30assigned to a room with Pasha, who
1:04:33loves to party. And Pasha made it so
1:04:37that you were always surrounded by,
1:04:39well, you know, you constantly had to
1:04:41explain 100 times that you didn't want
1:04:43to, and someone was unlucky, some got
1:04:46Pasha, some got Philip. I recommend
1:04:49everyone choose a certain number of
1:04:51people in their life to be witnesses to
1:04:53their life, so these people aren't
1:04:56accidental. Not just because you ended
1:04:59up as neighbors or because you happened
1:05:01to be at a gym or something, but
1:05:03intentionally. I wish for your viewers
1:05:06to, damn, find the strength to do it.
1:05:08There is the best assistant in the
1:05:11world. But the fact that no one will
1:05:14help you is setting an ambition,
1:05:15setting a goal higher than the
1:05:17resources you currently control.
1:05:21Believing that you'll figure it out
1:05:22along the way, that you'll find people,
1:05:24you'll find clients, you know, that
1:05:26courage, that courage. No one will come
1:05:30to save you, no one. I don't constantly
1:05:34descend from the sky with resources.
1:05:38Now you can do it.
1:05:40Many people expect me to make a
1:05:41decision for them on what to do. They
1:05:43say:" I have this. Give me money, and
1:05:46then I'll do it. "Yeah, right. Zero
1:05:49chance. A business angel only arrives
1:05:51when you are already doing it. If you
1:05:53don't have a vision of the future, well
1:05:56, all the intelligence in the world
1:05:58won't help you if you lack courage. We
1:06:01have a lot of courage in our region.
1:06:04The Silk Road, a lot of displaced
1:06:05people. Everyone was displaced,
1:06:07everyone has a big history. We have a
1:06:09lot of courage. Russian guys have
1:06:10always been known for their courage.
1:06:12Yeah, they’d pick a fight anywhere.
1:06:13The time for the dumb and brave has
1:06:16come. For everything else, there’s
1:06:18ChatGPT. Thank you very much. Thanks.

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