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普丁連續兩天對7家日本企業出手!俄羅斯臨時接管!高市台灣有事論滿一年!中國外交部再批日本未反省!【#全球大爆卦】精華版 — Transcript

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0:01Sanae Takaichi must have a real headache
0:03now; what happened?
0:06Putin signed two consecutive
0:07presidential decrees to take over seven
0:09Japanese companies.
0:15Right, the latest news is that on
0:17November 5, Putin signed a decree to
0:19place four Russian subsidiaries of the
0:21Japan Tobacco group under temporary
0:23state management.
0:28Then, just one day later on November 6,
0:30he signed another order to place the
0:32full shares and assets of three other
0:34related companies under temporary
0:36management.
0:37Oh, I see. Regarding this temporary
0:40management, who actually has the
0:41authority to lift it?
0:43Only Putin himself.
0:45So, these seven Japanese tobacco-related
0:47businesses are actually quite profitable
0:49, yet they've all been taken over by the
0:51Russian authorities.
0:53Let’s ask Professor Yang: Professor, how
0:55do you view this incident?
0:58>> This is a response to the Japanese
1:00government passing its 13th round early
1:02last month, on October 2nd.
1:05>> The 13th round?
1:09>> Yes, the 13th round of additional
1:11sanctions against Russia, targeting 102
1:14types of products, including scrap metal
1:16and plastics, banning their export from
1:19Japan to Russia starting October 2nd.
1:23>> Hmm.
1:24>> If you look at the time from the start
1:25of the Russia-Ukraine war until now,
1:27that’s four years and eight months, and
1:29Japan’s sanctioned items have already
1:31exceeded 1,900.
1:31>> Hmm.
1:33>> So, given the situation in Japan last
1:35month—especially by October 2 nd—you can
1:38see the developments between Trump and
1:40Putin; I don't understand why Japan felt
1:42the need to keep pushing sanctions at
1:44that time.
1:49And then, of course, at the beginning of
1:51this month, Putin began his response,
1:53which is to say, targeting these four
1:55related Japanese tobacco business
1:57entities in Russia and initiating what
1:59is effectively...
2:03>> A temporary takeover.
2:05>> Temporary management, temporary
2:06management.
2:08This is the company JTI, Japan Tobacco
2:10International, primarily in Saint
2:13Petersburg, hmm.
2:14>> And also the Leningrad Oblast.
2:16>> Hmm.
2:17>> These places are where they primarily
2:19handled the tobacco business near the
2:20European side, and now they've been
2:22taken over.
2:22>> Naturally, Japan lodged a strong protest
2:25, or rather, Japan is protesting.
2:27>> However, I noticed that Japanese news
2:29reports don't mention that just a month
2:31ago, Japan itself implemented the 13th
2:33wave of sanctions against Russia.
2:35Oh, you're right; I didn't see it either
2:37. I checked the news wire services, and
2:39none of them wrote about it.
2:41>> Because back then, they focused on those
2:43100-plus items, which included important
2:46materials like scrap metal and plastics
2:48, bringing the total to over 1,900—
2:50nearly 2,000—products.
2:53The war has reached a point where
2:55everyone is preparing to negotiate, and
2:57the U.S. has started making efforts.
3:00>> Given that both sides have expressed
3:02this stance, why is Japan still choosing
3:04to increase sanctions on Russia at this
3:06time?
3:07Where did this decision come from?
3:10Why would they have such an attitude?
3:13Because the U.S. is no longer expanding
3:15these kinds of sanctions, and as for
3:17current expansion, I don’t see South
3:19Korea doing it either.
3:25Perhaps the EU is doing it, so Japan
3:27might be following the EU's lead, but
3:29the EU is basically in total opposition
3:31to Russia now.
3:36So, you can see this as a diplomatic
3:38misstep by Japan itself, inviting
3:40counter-measures.
3:43When the media reports on these
3:45counter-measures, it makes it look like
3:47Russia is acting unilaterally, when in
3:49fact, it stems from Japan’s own actions
3:51.
3:55Especially now that you see the changes
3:57in U.S.-Russia relations, the summit
3:59next week on the 18th and 19 th—if the
4:01U.S. and Russia hold a bilateral summit
4:03, will they discuss the Russian issue?
4:07>> I think it’s very possible.
4:09>> Because when a war reaches this point,
4:10you really have to find a way to lead it
4:12toward an end through negotiations.
4:14Mm-hmm.
4:15>> Could there even be a trilateral meeting
4:16between China, the U.S., and Russia? I
4:18think the possibility is getting higher
4:20and higher.
4:20>> Trump says it will happen.
4:21>> Right.
4:22>> Yes, there is a latest update from Trump
4:24regarding a China-U.S. -Russia
4:25trilateral meeting.
4:26>> If Trump is so confident in saying it
4:28will happen, I think mainland China must
4:30have responded that they are preparing
4:31for it, because Putin has already said
4:33it three times, stating that it will
4:35happen and is currently being planned.
4:36>> Right.
4:38He must have received word from Beijing
4:40that it would happen.
4:44From Beijing's perspective, acting as
4:46the host for such an unprecedented
4:48China-U.S.
4:51-Russia trilateral summit in Shenzhen
4:53would be a diplomatic win for China.
4:56>> Mm-hmm.
4:57>> Oh. The specific topics being discussed
5:00don't really matter.
5:02I call this trilateral structure the "
5:04Shenzhen Framework."
5:07It’s not Yalta, not Yalta 2.0, because
5:10you can't compare the two eras.
5:13>> Therefore, if this China-U.S.
5:16-Russia "Shenzhen Framework" begins to
5:18take shape, it would represent a new
5:20geopolitical landscape for the great
5:22powers.
5:25In this great power landscape, the Iran
5:27issue will surely become a non-issue.
5:30Mm-hmm.
5:31>> Since the U.S.-Russia war is their
5:33primary focus, this summit will be very
5:35busy with China-U.S. -Russia trilateral
5:38talks,
5:38>> as well as many important bilateral
5:40meetings.
5:40>> Yes.
5:41>> So, whether Takaichi can go or not, it
5:43seems even if she could, Putin wouldn't
5:44pay any attention to her.
5:46>> Ah, yes. Good. Let me follow up with
5:48Professor Yang. Now, about Takaichi...
5:50>> Although the outside world is very
5:52concerned about whether she can actually
5:53go, she made a move at this moment: she
5:55announced she wants to meet Kim Jong Un
5:56. Why does she want to meet Kim Jong Un
5:58? Actually, Kim Yo Jong had already made
6:00it clear before that North Korea's
6:02leadership has no intention of meeting
6:04with Japan. But why do you think
6:06Takaichi is calling for a meeting with
6:07Kim Jong Un at this time, and even
6:09claiming she has Trump's support?
6:11>> Everyone, these past two days.
6:13>> Yes.
6:13>> There is an important occasion in Japan
6:15.
6:15>> Mhm.
6:16>> And quite a lot of people are
6:17participating.
6:18>> Mhm.
6:19>> That is, the 50th anniversary of the
6:22abduction issue.
6:23>> Oh, the abduction issue, I see.
6:26Starting from the 70s, North Korea
6:28specifically abducted Japanese citizens
6:31, particularly from the northeastern
6:33region of Japan.
6:36>> Mhm.
6:37>> Both men and women.
6:38>> Mhm.
6:39>> Students as well.
6:41We are not sure exactly how many people
6:43.
6:44North Korea claims there were over 100.
6:47Some have returned to Japan, some went
6:49over, and some married and didn't want
6:51to leave, staying behind.
6:54Yes.
6:54>> Japan's figures are obviously much
6:56higher, several times that.
6:59>> In the past, from the 90s all the way to
7:01the 2010s, it has always been a very
7:03heated issue in Japan.
7:06>> Mhm.
7:07>> But recently, there's been another
7:09opportunity to say, "Do not forget."
7:12They call it "Rachi.""Chimondai."
7:14>> That is the so-called abduction issue.
7:16Mhm.
7:17>> So this naturally led Takaichi to say
7:19she is willing to meet Kim Jong Un.
7:23She is actually using this to respond to
7:25the families of those abducted and the
7:27media.
7:28>> It's mainly to respond to the domestic
7:30media. So, do you think Kim Jong Un will
7:32meet her?
7:33>> I don't think so in the short term, of
7:35course.
7:35>> Yes.
7:37>> The two big bosses—I'm referring to
7:39China and Russia.
7:42When relations with Takaichi are bad, if
7:44you run off to meet her, you aren't
7:46thinking clearly. North Korea is very
7:48smart.
7:48>> I often ask, North Korea must have a
7:50very smart national security advisor.
7:52>> It's not me.
7:53>> One that enables North Korea to operate
7:55among these major powers.
7:57>> They are able to handle things with ease
7:59, and even continue developing ballistic
8:01missiles and nuclear weapons. Quite
8:03impressive. So, they probably understand
8:05the relations between these major powers
8:07. How could Kim Jong Un possibly meet
8:09with Takaichi now? But Takaichi has to
8:11say it, because she knows that saying it
8:13won't make it come true.
8:18>> Appeasing the domestic front costs
8:20nothing, and by stating this position,
8:22they at least provide an account to the
8:23families, groups, and media concerned
8:25with these abduction issues, but this
8:27raises a question for me.
8:35>> If the Japanese are so fixated on these
8:37abduction issues that have remained
8:38uncertain for 50 years or even longer.
8:43>> Mhm.
8:47>> Then how can the families, countries,
8:49governments, and societies of the Asian
8:51nations that suffered casualties during
8:53World War II ever forget that period?
8:58>> Exactly.
8:59>> So this is not just a historical issue;
9:02it is a matter of war and the harm
9:03caused to societies and individuals.
9:06I think Japan needs to have that empathy
9:08and understanding.
9:13If you feel aggrieved by the abduction
9:15issues from 50 years ago, insisting they
9:16remain unresolved and must be addressed
9:18, why do you treat the war issues as if
9:20they are merely history that should be
9:22compartmentalized?
9:26>> Mhm, mhm, indeed that is true. On the
9:29other side, Sino-Japanese relations have
9:31been affected for a year by Sanae
9:32Takaichi’s "Taiwan contingency" theory.
9:35As Professor Yang just mentioned
9:36regarding historical issues, if you are
9:38truly so concerned, shouldn't you be
9:40working to resolve them? Sino-Japanese
9:42relations have been marked by this "
9:44Taiwan contingency" theory for a year
9:46now, and the confrontation, maneuvering
9:48, and overall tension between the two
9:50sides show no signs of cooling down.
9:52Another point, I just checked, the APEC
9:54summit is nine days away.
9:58I see leaders from many countries
10:00announcing they have received their
10:01invitations, including Indonesia, which
10:03received its APEC invitation back in
10:05October.
10:09There is currently no news from the
10:11Japanese side, and we don't know if they
10:13have received an invitation at all—did
10:15they receive a formal invitation, or
10:16just an email invitation like Taiwan?
10:20Who knows. But at this moment,
10:22Sino-Japanese relations remain tense,
10:23precisely because of the "Taiwan
10:25contingency" theory. Well, two days ago
10:27on November 7th, the one-year
10:29anniversary, both Sanae Takaichi and
10:31Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu
10:33Matsuno made their latest statements to
10:36the outside world and to China.
10:39I’ll give you the conclusion first:
10:41regardless of whether it was Takaichi or
10:43Matsuno, they both emphasized again that
10:45mainland China is an important neighbor
10:47.
10:48Of course, he has said these words many
10:50times before.
10:53On this one-year anniversary, he once
10:54again emphasized that China is an
10:56important neighbor, but regarding the
10:58issue Beijing is most concerned about— "
11:00Will you retract your related remarks?"
11:04—he did not respond, nor did he tell
11:06everyone how to resolve these disputes
11:08between China and Japan.
11:10He didn't respond, especially Sanae
11:12Takaichi herself, she just avoids it.
11:14Not talking about it, the spokesperson
11:15for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kuo
11:17Chia-kun, stated at the press conference
11:18that current China-Japan relations are
11:20facing severe difficulties, and the
11:21responsibility lies with the Japanese
11:22side. Japan has not sufficiently
11:24reflected on or corrected Takaichi's
11:26remarks over the past year, and it was
11:27requested again that Japan formally
11:29address history and the Taiwan issue. As
11:31for Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa
11:33Hayashi, he emphasized that the Japanese
11:35government's basic position on Taiwan
11:37remains unchanged according to the 1972
11:39China-Japan Joint Statement. While it
11:41hasn't changed, are you going to correct
11:43the related disputes and remarks?
11:45Whether it's Chief Cabinet Secretary
11:47Hayashi or Sanae Takaichi, they neither
11:49responded nor said they would make
11:50corrections; it's as if they heard it,
11:52left it on "read," and then moved on to
11:54other topics. "China is an important
11:55neighbor"—they finished saying it, but
11:57the most important issue remains
11:58unresolved. With only nine days left,
12:00the outside world is concerned: is a
12:01Xi-Takaichi meeting still possible? At
12:03the APEC summit, I also don't know if
12:05Sanae Takaichi will go; no news has been
12:07released. Logically speaking, with nine
12:09days to go, the invitation should have
12:11been received by now, but there is no
12:13news from Japanese media or Japanese
12:15officials. Let's immediately ask Bin-ge
12:17, how does Bin-ge see it?
12:18>> Theoretically, as the host, mainland
12:21China should still send her an
12:22invitation.
12:24>> It's just that this invitation might not
12:26be very polite; it might be similar to
12:28Taiwan, sent via email or something like
12:30that. Yes, it's not impossible.
12:33>> Right, it's not impossible; they would
12:35be doing it on purpose to demean your
12:37status.
12:37>> It is possible that mainland China would
12:39do exactly that, yes.
12:40>> The Japanese side is also very low-key
12:42now because last time Takaichi told the
12:44Diet, "If the Diet allows it, I will go
12:46." Actually, I think she was
12:47preemptively covering herself back then
12:49.
12:49>> Meaning that if she doesn't go in the
12:51end, it's because if the Diet doesn't
12:53allow it, or if the Diet feels they are
12:55demeaning us, then I'll just not go.
12:57>> Because, to be honest, Takaichi is very
12:59clear in her own mind that if she goes,
13:01she won't be able to achieve any of her
13:03goals.
13:03>> Hmm.
13:04The biggest highlight of this APEC that
13:07everyone is watching is the trilateral
13:09talks, specifically the China-US-related
13:11meetings.
13:12Everything else will be relegated to a
13:14supporting role and will not be a key
13:16issue. As for Takaichi, even if she goes
13:19to the IPAC, the most she can do is meet
13:21with Trump. Putin and Xi Jinping will
13:23absolutely never meet her; why would
13:25they even meet you? Not to mention, it
13:28has been a full year since you said "a
13:30Taiwan contingency is a Japan
13:31contingency," and you still haven't made
13:33any clarifications. For mainland China,
13:35this is unacceptable, so why would they
13:37meet with you?
13:38>> In reality, I think even if Takaichi
13:40eventually goes, the Chinese side will
13:42use many tactics to make it impossible
13:44for her to even get near Xi. I, I think
13:46mainland China will—
13:47>> Yes, mainland China will adopt such an
13:50approach.
13:51>> So—
13:51>> Takaichi herself is very clear that
13:53China-Japan relations won't be getting
13:55any better. Mm.
13:56>> Because she can't retract it, right? How
13:57could she? If she retracts it, she’s
13:59finished herself. But if she doesn't
14:01retract it, China-Japan relations are
14:02definitely finished. So, in the
14:03foreseeable future, China-Japan
14:04relations will likely only get worse;
14:06they absolutely cannot get better.
14:07>> Mm.
14:08>> Therefore, I think this is something
14:10everyone is well aware of. The biggest
14:12challenge for Takaichi right now is
14:13probably not whether relations with
14:15China will improve.
14:17Because if this continues, where on
14:19earth will you source the rare
14:20earth-related raw materials that
14:22Japanese companies lack the most?
14:25>> These businesses will shut down.
14:26>> So, what are you going to do?
14:28>> I think this is Takaichi’s biggest
14:30headache right now, because she clearly
14:32has no ability to solve this issue.
14:33>> Mm-hmm. Right, right. Brother Bin just
14:36brought up a key point.
14:38Data released by China's customs a
14:40couple of days ago showed that compared
14:42to the first half of last year, China’s
14:44exports of these metals to Japan have
14:46already dropped by 98%.
14:50Western media previously reported that
14:51if these Japanese companies cannot get
14:53those rare earths, they might really
14:55close or halt production by the end of
14:57the year.
14:58It's possible; that's what Western media
15:00wrote.
15:02But at this moment, for Sanae Takaichi,
15:04it’s not just China-Japan relations that
15:07are a headache; there's also the LDP
15:09internal incident—we are citing reports
15:11from Kyodo News.
15:13Okay, let's look at the latest news
15:14first: Kyodo News reports that the
15:16Japanese government is studying how to
15:18further emphasize the Self-Defense
15:20Forces 'sustained combat capabilities in
15:21the national defense strategy to be
15:23revised within the year. There are
15:25different views within Japan regarding "
15:27sustained combat capabilities."
15:30Some are concerned that if combat is
15:32overemphasized, it might lead the
15:33outside world to believe that Japan is
15:35planning its policies based on the
15:37premise of war.
15:39There is also internal strife within the
15:41Liberal Democratic Party.
15:45On November 6th, during the vote on
15:47consumption tax reduction legislation,
15:49LDP members from former Prime Minister
15:51Ishiba Shigeru's faction left the
15:53chamber before the vote, opting to
15:55abstain from voting.
16:00This move was widely seen by outsiders
16:02as an act of protest, signaling
16:03dissatisfaction with this tax cut
16:05proposal.
16:07Why?
16:09I read reports from Japanese media,
16:11which essentially suggest that Ishiba
16:13believes the funding sources for this
16:14plan are unclear.
16:18He thinks that while tax cuts are fine,
16:20the lack of a clear, sufficient plan to
16:22cover the revenue shortfall could harm
16:24Japan's fiscal health, so they used this
16:26walkout to protest.
16:29Currently, LDP leadership has demanded
16:31that these four lawmakers submit written
16:34explanations by today, November 9th.
16:38This is the deadline, and the party
16:40headquarters will decide on further
16:41disciplinary actions based on their
16:43responses.
16:46I have seen netizens discussing whether
16:47they might be expelled from the party.
16:50Let's consult Professor Yang immediately
16:52.
16:54Professor, what is your take on the
16:56external perception that Ishiba’s
16:58walkout signifies internal party trouble
17:00?
17:01>> I don't think it's internal strife; it's
17:03a dispute over ideological differences.
17:06>> Ideological dispute.
17:07>> Because the LDP currently holds 316
17:09seats in the House of Representatives.
17:11>> Yes.
17:12>> Having four people walk out doesn't
17:14affect the situation at all.
17:16But among these four, there are two
17:18significant political figures.
17:20>> One is Ishiba Shigeru?
17:22>> Yes. And the other is Obuchi Yuko.
17:25>> This person...
17:26>> Obuchi Yuko is the daughter of former
17:28Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo.
17:30>> Right.
17:30>> This person...
17:31>> She was once quite popular, too.
17:33>> Uh-huh.
17:35>> Obuchi Keizo served as Prime Minister
17:38from 1998 to 2000, and he passed away
17:40while in office.
17:42>> He died while in office.
17:44>> So, people still remember him fondly
17:46because he was very down-to-earth.
17:48>> Oh, right, Obuchi Keizo loved making
17:51phone calls.
17:52>> Yes, making calls, he...
17:54>> He would call voters and various people
17:56; some would even think it was a prank
17:58call.
17:58>> How could it be Obuchi Keizo? They’d
18:00hang up, and he’d call back. That's
18:02right, he'd say, "I really am the Prime
18:04Minister."
18:05So, these stories about him have made
18:07many people miss him dearly.
18:11And since Obuchi Yuko represents his
18:13legacy, the walkout by these two people
18:15expresses their genuine concern—or
18:17rather, their grave concern—about
18:19Japan's fiscal state.
18:24I think it's quite justified; the
18:26Japanese yen is depreciating across the
18:29board, and your debt burden has reached
18:31240%of GDP.
18:37And now, you want to increase military
18:39spending while also cutting the
18:41consumption tax from 8%to 1%, starting
18:43next April.
18:47So, tell me, where will you find the
18:49money to cover these other things—like
18:51debt repayment, social welfare, or
18:53education?
18:56The same problem exists in the U.S. and
18:58Taiwan. Military spending now accounts
19:00for an increasingly high proportion. In
19:02Taiwan, the proportion of military
19:03spending has reached one-third. Japan
19:05isn't that extreme yet, but it's getting
19:07there.
19:08So, under these circumstances, where is
19:10your fiscal health and fiscal discipline
19:13?
19:13You need to be clear about it, mhm.
19:16>> It’s just that among these 300-plus
19:18seats, the vast majority are following
19:20the LDP and don't dare to speak for
19:22themselves.
19:24Providing written opinions—I don't think
19:26it matters whether they do or not; it
19:27would be best if you just expelled them
19:29.
19:31>> Ah, it shouldn't go that far.
19:33>> Mhm.
19:34>> Regarding future actions, they might
19:36even withdraw from the Liberal
19:37Democratic Party themselves. Just
19:39imagine, someone who has served as Prime
19:42Minister eventually withdrawing from the
19:44LDP.
19:44>> The impact of this on the LDP would be
19:46quite significant.
19:47>> Yes.
19:48>> But these right-wing politicians,
19:50including the LDP, don't care about this
19:52issue anymore. Mhm.
19:54>> They don't care because they believe
19:56these issues are now their specialty.
19:58Let's talk about the defense policy part
20:00he mentioned.
20:02>> Right.
20:03>> This is where he's playing word games,
20:05because he originally wanted to amend
20:07the three security laws.
20:11Since the three non-nuclear principles
20:13are written into those laws, if you want
20:15to relax them to introduce U.S.
20:17nuclear-powered submarines...
20:20...
20:20>> you have to amend the law.
20:22Amending the law isn't the problem, but
20:24the act of doing so would trigger a
20:26backlash from the international
20:27community and the region to the Japanese
20:29people.
20:30Even now, people in Japan still go out
20:32to protest every week. Yes, protesting
20:35right outside the Diet.
20:38>> Right, sometimes there are thousands of
20:40people, sometimes fewer, but what you
20:42see now is that he is using the
20:43so-called National Defense Strategy or
20:46cabinet resolutions, utilizing "
20:47sustained combat capability."
20:51>> Right.
20:53>> Of course, one might worry about this
20:55combat concept, but I think it’s also a
20:57bit of a "sneaking across" strategy.
20:59It means he wants to use this method to
21:01introduce U.S. nuclear-powered
21:03submarines.
21:05Because he believes nuclear-powered
21:07submarines don't violate the three
21:09non-nuclear principles—they aren't
21:11nuclear weapons, they aren't nuclear
21:12weapons.
21:14Hey, Australia makes the same argument.
21:17When discussing this issue, many people
21:19focus on the financial aspect, while
21:21others focus on whether it violates the
21:231968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
21:26Because you cannot proliferate nuclear
21:28weapons.
21:29They say nuclear-powered submarines
21:31aren't nuclear weapons, but I personally
21:33wonder if they are?
21:35It uses nuclear power; isn't that a
21:37nuclear weapon?
21:39>> Mm.
21:40>> Must it be a nuclear warhead that you
21:41launch and detonate to be considered a
21:43nuclear weapon?
21:46>> Oh, so this is actually a broad versus
21:48narrow interpretation, but regarding
21:50nuclear non-proliferation, it should
21:52certainly be viewed broadly.
21:56But regardless, as long as the U.S. and
21:57Japan can interpret it their own way,
21:59they'll just use this method.
22:02>> Word games.
22:03>> Word games.
22:04>> Nuclear-powered submarines that aren't "
22:07nuclear weapons."
22:08>> They help strengthen combat capabilities
22:10and deterrence.
22:12>> Mm.
22:13>> Using this approach.
22:15>> I think my guess, my deduction, is that
22:17this is the direction it's heading.
22:19>> Mm, mm, mm, okay. Let me ask you, Bin-ge
22:22: how do you see what Professor Yang
22:24just said about them modifying the
22:26Self-Defense Forces' "sustained combat
22:28capability"—is it just playing word
22:30games? Basically, essentially, from
22:32Beijing's perspective, they just think:
22:34"Stop pretending; you don't need to do
22:36all this, you just want to develop
22:38militarism."
22:40The truth is they are heading in that
22:42direction, but the issue is they want to
22:44use a roundabout way, with less
22:46aggressive language, to see if they can
22:48reduce external impact and domestic
22:50backlash.
22:51>> That is their goal, actually.
22:53>> To put it plainly, just four words: "
22:55deceiving oneself and others."
22:56>> Basically, that's what it means.
22:58>> But is doing this actually useful? I
23:00honestly don't think it's useful at all
23:01.
23:02>> Because everyone knows what you are
23:03doing.
23:04>> Is there anyone who wouldn't know? So
23:05China, Russia, including North Korea,
23:07and even South Korea will likely not buy
23:09into this.
23:10>> Mm-hmm.
23:11>> And the only place in East Asia that
23:12might buy it is probably Taiwan.
23:14>> Right, but what about domestically?
23:16Inside Japan, many people are
23:18increasingly worried about this
23:20aggressive situation, so I think if he
23:22stubbornly insists on going this way,
23:24those in the country opposing him will
23:27likely gather more and more strength.
23:30>> I think this is an inevitable
23:32development; it seems he has no
23:34intention of stopping, because this is
23:36his lifelong goal.
23:38So, since it is his lifelong goal, and
23:40he has finally gotten this far, I think
23:42he will try to do it, which is all
23:44within expectations; therefore, I think
23:46Japan will inevitably face a political
23:49train wreck in the end.
23:50>> All right, Bin, I'd like to continue
23:52asking you about what you mentioned
23:54earlier—that there might be a "head-on
23:56collision" within Japan. Indeed, just as
23:58Mr. Yang said earlier, this internal
24:00conflict and infighting within the LDP
24:02isn't happening for the first time.
24:05For instance, take Tsuruho; he has
24:07openly criticized Takaichi Sanae before
24:09.
24:09>> Yes.
24:10>> Mm.
24:11>> Because now that he’s withdrawn from the
24:13party faction, you should know that
24:14people have dug up the fact that over a
24:16decade ago, he scolded others, telling
24:18them if they disagreed, they should just
24:20quit the party—and now he’s done the
24:22exact same thing. So now, the LDP
24:23leadership will likely spend the next
24:25few days studying whether to...
24:27>> issue disciplinary action or expel him
24:29from the party entirely.
24:30>> Mm-hm. Or whether he might quit the
24:32party himself; nobody knows yet.
24:34>> It depends on how the LDP handles it,
24:36but I must say...
24:38>> Even though Ishiba has always been a
24:40lone wolf within the LDP and essentially
24:42has no faction,
24:43>> Mm.
24:44>> I personally believe that after what
24:47he's done, whether the LDP expels him or
24:49he quits on his own, it will stir up a
24:51storm in Japanese politics.
24:53>> Mm, actually.
24:55>> There are actually three other lawmakers
24:56who joined him in this action.
24:58>> Right, four people in total. Yes, so
25:00whether others in the LDP will follow
25:02his lead and echo his stance is hard to
25:04say.
25:05There are growing concerns within the
25:07LDP regarding Takaichi Sanae's path, so
25:09I think if she handles this poorly, it
25:11could lead to a major split within the
25:13party, which probably wouldn't be good
25:16for her either.
25:17>> Mm-hm, let me ask Mr. Yang one final
25:19question. Sir, the world is focused on
25:21the APEC summit, which is only nine days
25:23away. I’ve been following it closely,
25:25checking the Japanese media reports
25:27every day. I’m curious to know if there
25:28has been any official word from the
25:30Japanese side regarding Takaichi Sanae
25:32or anything related to the APEC summit?
25:34As of now, there hasn't been, none at
25:36all. Let’s ask Mr. Yang then: in your
25:38view, is an "Xi-Takaichi" meeting still
25:41possible?
25:41>> Oh, impossible.
25:42>> Then will he attend? Wait.
25:44>> He will likely attend.
25:45>> Likely to attend, mm.
25:47>> Because if he stays away entirely, that
25:49would be a major failure for Japanese
25:51diplomacy.
25:52>> Oh, a diplomatic disaster.
25:54>> Because if he goes, he can still hold
25:56many bilateral meetings. Right.
25:58>> He could arrange, for example, to meet
26:01with the US, Canada, Australia, New
26:03Zealand, and well, Vietnam, that's too
26:05many...
26:07>> The Philippines, of course the
26:08Philippines; I’ll even throw in a coast
26:10guard ship for you, right?
26:11>> Philippine President Marcos has already
26:13confirmed he will go. Yes.
26:14>> Yes, definitely going, yes.
26:16>> Since the Philippines is also the
26:18rotating chair of ASEAN this year, he
26:19will definitely be going with Trump.
26:22>> So, he will actually be very busy.
26:26It’s just that he won’t be able to meet
26:28Trump, Putin, or Xi Jinping.
26:30Well.
26:33>> That’s how it is, and I don’t think he
26:35will try to force his way in or act like
26:37a sycophant, so I think the likelihood
26:38of him going is still quite high.
26:42If he doesn’t go, I think it wouldn’t
26:44make sense, because this is a
26:45multilateral occasion—doesn’t Japan
26:47emphasize multilateral diplomacy?
26:49Besides, with so many people to meet,
26:51seeing that many people at once,
26:52including Trump himself, he should at
26:54least take a look.
26:55>> Right, you go and complain to him a
26:57little, right?
27:00Engage with him a bit, so I actually
27:01think he will go, it’s just that there
27:03are some issues with talking about going
27:05now.
27:07People will definitely ask if he will
27:09meet with Xi Jinping.
27:11>> So it’s better to just give a more
27:12low-key answer.
27:13>> Also, if he goes, all media cameras will
27:15certainly be watching to see how the
27:17leaders interact with each other, yes.
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