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【特集】ミネベアミツミ(6479) 人型ロボットで「大型受注」、フィジカルAIの部品はロボットのどこに入り、どこまで売上になるのか — Transcript

by 失敗しない投資の為の情報収集チャンネル · 4,046 words · 666 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Hello. Today, we are looking at
  2. 0:03MinebeaMitsumi, stock code 6479. The
  3. 0:07company manufactures precision parts
  4. 0:09used inside machinery, such as bearings
  5. 0:11, motors, and sensors. The reason for
  6. 0:15this focus is that the company is
  7. 0:17gaining attention as a manufacturer of
  8. 0:19parts for "Physical AI," where AI
  9. 0:21operates machinery in the real world.
  10. 0:24The stock price rose sharply from this
  11. 0:26spring through early summer, then fell
  12. 0:28significantly. In this video, we will
  13. 0:33examine where this company's parts fit
  14. 0:35into robot bodies, what the company
  15. 0:36says about their progress in humanoid
  16. 0:38robotics, and what is currently driving
  17. 0:40their profits. MinebeaMitsumi's stock
  18. 0:46price nearly doubled from this spring
  19. 0:48to early summer, then dropped about 35%
  20. 0:50by mid-September. The lowest point was
  21. 0:55March 31, with a closing price of 2,535
  22. 0:58yen. From there, it climbed almost
  23. 1:01steadily until early summer. On June 25
  24. 1:04, it hit an all-time high of 5,370 yen
  25. 1:08during trading, closing at 5,246 yen.
  26. 1:12However, it shifted to a decline after
  27. 1:14that. The closing price on September 11
  28. 1:18was 3,391 yen. That is a level about 35
  29. 1:22%lower than the closing price on the
  30. 1:24day it hit its peak. Looking at the
  31. 1:27days of significant movement, a common
  32. 1:29pattern emerges. On many of the days
  33. 1:31with large gains or losses, there were
  34. 1:33no company announcements regarding
  35. 1:35earnings or performance. For instance,
  36. 1:38on June 22, the stock rose over 9%in a
  37. 1:41single day, yet there was no company
  38. 1:43announcement. On August 6, it dropped
  39. 1:47nearly 9%in a single day after
  40. 1:49releasing its first-quarter earnings
  41. 1:51the previous afternoon. However, that
  42. 1:53earnings report showed both revenue and
  43. 1:55profit growth. The explanation that it
  44. 1:57fell due to poor earnings does not
  45. 1:59match the figures. During the same
  46. 2:03period, Harmonic Drive Systems, which
  47. 2:05makes reducers for robot joints, also
  48. 2:07saw its stock price double before
  49. 2:09falling, meaning robot component stocks
  50. 2:11were moving in the same direction
  51. 2:12together. The cause of the large stock
  52. 2:17price movements could not be identified
  53. 2:19from company documents. It is like
  54. 2:23passengers on the same train—the "
  55. 2:25robot parts" sector—all accelerating
  56. 2:27and then braking together. For
  57. 2:32investors, what matters is that the
  58. 2:34rise and fall of this stock cannot be
  59. 2:35explained by this company's events
  60. 2:37alone. Next, we will take a look at
  61. 2:40what the company actually does.
  62. 2:43MinebeaMitsumi manufactures a vast
  63. 2:45quantity of precision components that,
  64. 2:47while inconspicuous, are essential for
  65. 2:49machinery to rotate and move. The most
  66. 2:52iconic of these is the bearing. A
  67. 2:54bearing is a component that supports a
  68. 2:56rotating shaft and reduces friction.
  69. 3:00Small steel balls are lined up between
  70. 3:01two rings to ensure the shaft rotates
  71. 3:03smoothly. A familiar example is a
  72. 3:08bicycle wheel, which keeps spinning
  73. 3:09easily because there is a bearing at
  74. 3:11the axle. MinebeaMitsumi excels
  75. 3:15specifically at producing exceptionally
  76. 3:17small bearings. According to company
  77. 3:19research, they hold a 60%global market
  78. 3:22share for small ball bearings with an
  79. 3:24outer diameter of 22mm or less. At 22mm
  80. 3:27or less, that is about the size of a
  81. 3:30one-yen coin or even smaller. The
  82. 3:33company describes its core business as
  83. 3:35an "eight-spear" strategy. Besides
  84. 3:38bearings, they include motors, sensors,
  85. 3:40analog semiconductors, automotive door
  86. 3:42handles and keys, connectors and
  87. 3:44switches, power supplies, and wireless/
  88. 3:47communications. The company's total
  89. 3:50sales last fiscal year exceeded 1.6
  90. 3:52trillion yen, an all-time high. However
  91. 3:55, there is a significant imbalance in
  92. 3:57where the profits come from. The
  93. 4:00segment centered on bearings makes up
  94. 4:02less than 20%of total sales, yet it
  95. 4:04earns nearly half of the combined
  96. 4:06profit of the four segments. The profit
  97. 4:09margin relative to sales also exceeds
  98. 4:1220%. To use an analogy, it is like a
  99. 4:15large department store where the
  100. 4:17bearing division is the most profitable
  101. 4:19specialty shop despite having a small
  102. 4:21floor area. What is important for
  103. 4:25investors is that the core of this
  104. 4:26company's earning power lies in these
  105. 4:28small bearings. Next, we will look at
  106. 4:31what those bearings are currently being
  107. 4:33used for to generate profit. What is
  108. 4:37currently driving MinebeaMitsumi's
  109. 4:39profits is not humanoid robots, but
  110. 4:41parts for AI data centers. Data centers
  111. 4:46that power AI are packed with servers
  112. 4:47for calculation, which generate massive
  113. 4:49amounts of heat. Cooling fans run
  114. 4:53constantly to dissipate that heat, and
  115. 4:55small bearings are spinning inside the
  116. 4:57motors of those fans. The company also
  117. 5:01specializes in the precision parts that
  118. 5:03support the motors that spin disks and
  119. 5:05the components that read data inside
  120. 5:07hard drives. According to the company,
  121. 5:11sales for AI servers reached 110
  122. 5:13billion yen in the previous fiscal year
  123. 5:15. The company expects this figure to
  124. 5:17grow to 200 billion yen by the fiscal
  125. 5:19year ending in March 2029. In fact, the
  126. 5:22financial results from April to June of
  127. 5:24this year showed a 50.9%increase in
  128. 5:26operating profit compared to the same
  129. 5:28period last year. The number of
  130. 5:31bearings sold externally reached
  131. 5:32approximately 300 million units per
  132. 5:34month, setting a new record. In the
  133. 5:37earnings presentation, the chairman
  134. 5:39noted that production, including for
  135. 5:41bearings, cannot keep up with demand,
  136. 5:43leading to a supply shortage across the
  137. 5:45entire market, and that average selling
  138. 5:47prices are gradually trending upward.
  139. 5:49The company has also announced plans to
  140. 5:51further increase its bearing production
  141. 5:53capacity over the next few years. In
  142. 5:57August, the company raised its
  143. 5:59full-year net profit forecast but kept
  144. 6:01its sales and operating profit
  145. 6:03projections unchanged, explaining this
  146. 6:05as a highly conservative approach. For
  147. 6:09example, just as air conditioners sell
  148. 6:11well during a hot summer, orders also
  149. 6:12flow to the companies that manufacture
  150. 6:14the parts that turn the fans inside
  151. 6:16them. The current expansion of data
  152. 6:18centers acts as a similar tailwind for
  153. 6:20this company. However, the company
  154. 6:23itself explains that the AI data center
  155. 6:26field is one where technology changes
  156. 6:28rapidly. They also addressed concerns
  157. 6:31that the demand for cooling fans might
  158. 6:32decrease if liquid cooling systems for
  159. 6:34servers become more widespread than air
  160. 6:36cooling. What is important for
  161. 6:39investors is that the current profit
  162. 6:41growth is driven by the data center
  163. 6:42sector, which is separate from the
  164. 6:44much-talked-about humanoid robots. "
  165. 6:47Physical AI" refers to AI that doesn't
  166. 6:49just provide answers on a screen, but
  167. 6:52also operates machines that move in the
  168. 6:54real world, such as robots,
  169. 6:55self-driving cars, and drones. AI that
  170. 6:59answers questions via chat can perform
  171. 7:01its work using only its "brain."
  172. 7:03However, robots that need to grasp
  173. 7:05objects or walk cannot function with a
  174. 7:07brain alone. In terms of the human body
  175. 7:10, they require joints to bend arms,
  176. 7:12muscles to exert force, and sensory
  177. 7:14feedback in the fingertips to feel the
  178. 7:16hardness of an object. In robotics,
  179. 7:19bearings allow joints to move smoothly,
  180. 7:21motors serve as the muscles, and
  181. 7:23sensors act as the senses. In their
  182. 7:27integrated report, the company's top
  183. 7:29management writes that, as the term "
  184. 7:31physical AI" suggests, humanoid robots
  185. 7:33and the like cannot function on
  186. 7:35electronic technology alone. They argue
  187. 7:38that this is where their company comes
  188. 7:40in, having combined mechanical and
  189. 7:42electronic components for years. To use
  190. 7:46an analogy, if companies making AI
  191. 7:48brains are like the brain,
  192. 7:49MinebeaMitsumi is creating the joints,
  193. 7:51muscles, and nerve endings. No matter
  194. 7:55how smart the brain is, if the joints
  195. 7:57are rusted, the arm simply won't lift.
  196. 8:00The company identifies AI servers,
  197. 8:02humanoid robots, autonomous driving,
  198. 8:04commercial drones, and the automotive
  199. 8:06and aerospace sectors as its pillars of
  200. 8:09growth. Of these, the ones that operate
  201. 8:13in the physical world—that is,
  202. 8:14physical AI—are humanoid robots,
  203. 8:17autonomous driving, and drones. What is
  204. 8:21important for investors to note is that
  205. 8:23even under the label of "physical AI,"
  206. 8:25the progress within the company differs
  207. 8:27greatly between humanoid robots versus
  208. 8:29autonomous driving and drones.
  209. 8:33MinebeaMitsumi's components are
  210. 8:34primarily used in the joints and
  211. 8:36fingertips of humanoid robot bodies.
  212. 8:40Humanoid robots have many joints,
  213. 8:42including shoulders, elbows, wrists,
  214. 8:44fingers, waists, and knees. Wherever a
  215. 8:48joint rotates, bearings are required to
  216. 8:50support that rotation. The company
  217. 8:53estimates that 120 to 200 bearings are
  218. 8:55used in the body excluding the hands,
  219. 8:57and 30 to 100 bearings are used in just
  220. 9:00one hand. The parts that move the
  221. 9:03joints are drive components called
  222. 9:04actuators. These combine a motor with a
  223. 9:07reduction gear that converts its
  224. 9:09rotation into slow but powerful
  225. 9:10movement, and these also contain
  226. 9:12bearings and motors. When climbing a
  227. 9:16hill on a bicycle, if you switch to a
  228. 9:18light gear, the pedals spin quickly
  229. 9:20while the wheels turn slowly, allowing
  230. 9:22you to climb with that extra force.
  231. 9:25Reduction gears operate on that same
  232. 9:27principle, converting the fast, weak
  233. 9:29rotation of a motor into a slow,
  234. 9:31powerful rotation. Another essential
  235. 9:34component is the sensor. For a robot to
  236. 9:37grab an egg without breaking it, it
  237. 9:39needs to know how much force is
  238. 9:40currently being applied. MinebeaMitsumi
  239. 9:44manufactures torque sensors that
  240. 9:46measure the twisting force on joints,
  241. 9:48as well as thin sensors that measure
  242. 9:50force. These thin sensors work by
  243. 9:52reading the magnitude of force through
  244. 9:54changes in electrical conductivity in a
  245. 9:56film that slightly expands and
  246. 9:58contracts when pressure is applied.
  247. 10:00Furthermore, they also produce ball
  248. 10:02screws used to move components in a
  249. 10:04straight line within the robot's hands.
  250. 10:06It is a component that converts
  251. 10:07rotational motion into linear motion,
  252. 10:09as turning the screw causes the part
  253. 10:11fitted onto it to move straight back
  254. 10:13and forth. In addition, the company
  255. 10:16lists analog semiconductors, which
  256. 10:18control motors and process sensor
  257. 10:20signals, as components for humanoid
  258. 10:22robots. What is important for investors
  259. 10:28is that MinebeaMitsumi has many
  260. 10:29components used around humanoid robot
  261. 10:31joints—such as bearings, motors,
  262. 10:33sensors, screws, and semiconductors—
  263. 10:35and the company highlights its strength
  264. 10:38in offering these in combination. The
  265. 10:43progress MinebeaMitsumi reports for its
  266. 10:45humanoid robot components varies
  267. 10:46clearly by part, and bearings are the
  268. 10:48only ones currently described as having
  269. 10:50orders. In its August 5 financial
  270. 10:54results materials, the company stated
  271. 10:56that it had secured large orders for
  272. 10:58bearings from major US companies and
  273. 10:59others in the industry. The May report
  274. 11:02described the situation as "progressing
  275. 11:04toward securing orders" in North
  276. 11:06America. However, the name of the
  277. 11:08partner companies, the monetary value,
  278. 11:10and the timing of the deliveries are
  279. 11:12not disclosed. The other components are
  280. 11:15at an earlier stage. It is noted that
  281. 11:19torque sensors have entered the joint
  282. 11:21sector, ball screws have received
  283. 11:22inquiries, and small motors have
  284. 11:24received numerous inquiries. "Inquiries
  285. 11:28" refers to the stage where customers
  286. 11:30are making requests or seeking
  287. 11:32consultations. Orders have not yet been
  288. 11:34finalized. To use a retail analogy,
  289. 11:39bearings represent receiving an order,
  290. 11:41torque sensors represent starting
  291. 11:43business in that field, and ball screws
  292. 11:45and motors represent receiving
  293. 11:46inquiries about the products. What is
  294. 11:52important for investors is to
  295. 11:54distinguish which component and which
  296. 11:56stage of development is being discussed
  297. 11:57when hearing news about orders for
  298. 11:59robot parts. MinebeaMitsumi's robot
  299. 12:04hand, "Kurass-Mano," is a prototype
  300. 12:06designed to demonstrate the technology
  301. 12:08of packing small components into thin
  302. 12:10fingers and is not for sale at the
  303. 12:11moment. The company began joint
  304. 12:15development in February last year with
  305. 12:17Harmonic Drive Systems, known for its
  306. 12:19robot joint components. Then, in
  307. 12:22January of this year, they unveiled
  308. 12:24this hand at CES, the technology trade
  309. 12:26show held in the United States. Inside
  310. 12:30is a drive component for moving fingers
  311. 12:32that combines Harmonic Drive Systems '
  312. 12:35ultra-compact speed reducer with a
  313. 12:36small MinebeaMitsumi motor. It is a
  314. 12:40slender component approximately 13mm
  315. 12:42wide and 6cm long. Each hand contains
  316. 12:47107 bearings and five force-sensing
  317. 12:49sensors. According to the company, a
  318. 12:54single finger can lift 5kg, and four
  319. 12:56together can lift 20kg. In other words,
  320. 13:01it’s a technology that packs tiny
  321. 13:03parts—like those in a wristwatch—
  322. 13:05into a slender finger, enabling it to
  323. 13:07lift a bag of rice with just one finger
  324. 13:09. The company says that since the
  325. 13:13reveal, they have received many
  326. 13:15inquiries, and joint development has
  327. 13:17begun with several partners, including
  328. 13:19major global robot manufacturers and
  329. 13:21industrial robot-related firms. They
  330. 13:24also stated that they hope to show an
  331. 13:26improved version at CES next year.
  332. 13:30However, it has not been disclosed who
  333. 13:31these three parties are. There has also
  334. 13:34been no disclosure regarding sales or
  335. 13:35production of the hands. We were also
  336. 13:37unable to confirm any announcement from
  337. 13:39Harmonic Drive Systems this time. What
  338. 13:44is important for investors is that the
  339. 13:46"Cross-Manos" is a demonstration of
  340. 13:47what can be achieved by combining this
  341. 13:49company's parts, and it cannot yet be
  342. 13:51counted as revenue. Even by the
  343. 13:56company’s own estimates, sales for
  344. 13:57humanoid robots will remain only a
  345. 13:59small fraction of the company's total
  346. 14:01for the next few years. According to
  347. 14:04the figures provided by the company,
  348. 14:06sales for humanoid robots were
  349. 14:07approximately 10 million yen for the
  350. 14:09fiscal year ending March 2025. The
  351. 14:12company anticipates this will reach 10
  352. 14:14billion yen by the fiscal year ending
  353. 14:16March 2029. Furthermore, for the fiscal
  354. 14:19year ending March 2035, they have
  355. 14:21projected an image of 100 billion yen
  356. 14:23in a standard case and 200 billion yen
  357. 14:25in an optimistic case. This sounds like
  358. 14:28significant growth, but let's compare
  359. 14:30it to the company as a whole. The
  360. 14:33company's total projected sales for
  361. 14:35that same year are 1.9 trillion yen.
  362. 14:38The 10 billion yen for humanoid robots
  363. 14:40accounts for only about 0.5%of that.
  364. 14:43Compared to the forecast for AI servers
  365. 14:46we saw in Chapter 3, it is
  366. 14:47one-twentieth the size. To put it in
  367. 14:51perspective, it’s like a household
  368. 14:52earning 1 million yen a year starting a
  369. 14:54new side job that is expected to bring
  370. 14:56in only about 5,000 yen annually after
  371. 14:58a few years. The discussion of growth
  372. 15:02rates is also often misunderstood. The
  373. 15:05company's materials mention a growth
  374. 15:07rate of 65%per year, but this is the
  375. 15:09figure for the optimistic case. In the
  376. 15:12standard case, the growth rate is
  377. 15:14approximately 47%per year. Both figures
  378. 15:16are based on the company's own
  379. 15:18projections. The company itself has
  380. 15:22stated in investor briefings that while
  381. 15:24they are preparing for the full-scale
  382. 15:25adoption of humanoid robots, it will
  383. 15:27still take some time for humanoids and
  384. 15:29drones to fully take off. There is also
  385. 15:34competition. Reports point out that
  386. 15:37other domestic bearing manufacturers
  387. 15:39are also developing drive components
  388. 15:41for humanoid robots, and that Chinese
  389. 15:42parts makers and robot manufacturers
  390. 15:44are increasingly producing their own
  391. 15:46components. What is important for
  392. 15:51investors is that while humanoid robots
  393. 15:53are potential future pillars that have
  394. 15:55started receiving orders, they have not
  395. 15:56yet reached a scale that supports
  396. 15:58current earnings. In the physical realm
  397. 16:03, MinebeaMitsumi’s current revenue is
  398. 16:05primarily driven by autonomous driving
  399. 16:07and drones, with sales for humanoid
  400. 16:09robots remaining very small. Autonomous
  401. 16:13vehicles use a device called a LiDAR to
  402. 16:15view their surroundings in three
  403. 16:17dimensions. It acts as the vehicle’s
  404. 16:20eyes, measuring the distance to
  405. 16:22surrounding objects by timing how long
  406. 16:24light takes to bounce back.
  407. 16:27MinebeaMitsumi's motors and bearings
  408. 16:29are used in the rotating parts of these
  409. 16:31LiDAR units. The company explains that
  410. 16:34it leverages the high-precision
  411. 16:36assembly technology it cultivated
  412. 16:37through hard disk drive components.
  413. 16:40According to company charts, sales for
  414. 16:42LiDAR components were 5 billion yen in
  415. 16:44the previous fiscal year. The company
  416. 16:46expects this figure to reach 15 billion
  417. 16:49yen by the fiscal year ending March
  418. 16:512029. Sales for drone components were 3
  419. 16:53billion yen in the previous fiscal year
  420. 16:55. The forecast for the fiscal year
  421. 16:58ending March 2029 is 5 billion yen.
  422. 17:00These include components like motors
  423. 17:02and bearings for propellers, as well as
  424. 17:03mechanisms for stabilizing cameras. The
  425. 17:08company notes it has a track record of
  426. 17:09receiving orders from major
  427. 17:11manufacturers in China and North
  428. 17:12America for both LiDAR and drone
  429. 17:14components. The financial results from
  430. 17:17April to June of this year also state
  431. 17:19that the expanded sales of automotive
  432. 17:21parts for LiDAR contributed to an
  433. 17:22increase in revenue. If a humanoid
  434. 17:27robot is a new store still in
  435. 17:29pre-opening, LiDAR and drones are
  436. 17:31branches that are already open and
  437. 17:32gradually gaining customers. However,
  438. 17:37neither is particularly large in scale
  439. 17:40yet. Even combining the prospects for
  440. 17:43humanoid robots, LiDAR, and drones, the
  441. 17:45total for the fiscal year ending March
  442. 17:472029 is 30 billion yen, or about 1.6%of
  443. 17:50the company's total projected revenue.
  444. 17:55For investors, it is important to
  445. 17:57accurately recognize that physical AI
  446. 17:59revenue does exist, albeit starting
  447. 18:00small in autonomous driving and drones.
  448. 18:06The stories circulating online about
  449. 18:08MinebeaMitsumi are a mix of what can be
  450. 18:10verified through company materials and
  451. 18:11what cannot. The first is the story
  452. 18:16that they are supplying parts for
  453. 18:17Tesla's humanoid robots. Company
  454. 18:20documents only mention "major US firms"
  455. 18:23or "major North American firms," with
  456. 18:25no specific company names anywhere. The
  457. 18:28second is the claim that they hold a 60
  458. 18:30%global market share in robot joints.
  459. 18:33The 60%figure is the company's own
  460. 18:35research estimate for the total share
  461. 18:37of small ball bearings with an outer
  462. 18:39diameter of 22mm or less. It is not the
  463. 18:42market share for humanoid robot
  464. 18:43applications. The third is the claim
  465. 18:46that they are the only company in the
  466. 18:47world that supplies a full range of
  467. 18:49robot parts. The company highlights its
  468. 18:52combination of parts as a strength, but
  469. 18:54no documents confirming they are "the
  470. 18:56only one in the world" were found. The
  471. 18:59fourth is the story that their
  472. 19:01performance is growing due to physical
  473. 19:02AI. As we have seen, the current growth
  474. 19:05in earnings is centered on the data
  475. 19:07center sector. Within physical AI,
  476. 19:10there is revenue from LiDAR and drones,
  477. 19:12but the scale is still small, and sales
  478. 19:14for humanoid robots are negligible. To
  479. 19:19put it in perspective, it is like
  480. 19:20hearing rumors that a certain shop is
  481. 19:22frequented by celebrities, while the
  482. 19:24sign on the door only says they are
  483. 19:26patronized by "customers from major
  484. 19:28companies." What is important for
  485. 19:33investors is to personally draw the
  486. 19:34line between what is said in rumors and
  487. 19:36what is written by the company.
  488. 19:41MinebeaMitsumi's current stock price is
  489. 19:43in the mid-10x range of its projected
  490. 19:45annual earnings, and this ratio varies
  491. 19:47significantly among robot-related
  492. 19:49stocks. One metric for determining if a
  493. 19:52stock price is high or low relative to
  494. 19:54performance is the P/E ratio,
  495. 19:55representing how many times the price
  496. 19:57covers the projected annual profit.
  497. 20:01Regarding the stock price level, it
  498. 20:02closed on September 11th below the
  499. 20:04average price of the past three months
  500. 20:06or so. Looking at other companies often
  501. 20:11cited as robot-related stocks, Harmonic
  502. 20:13Drive Systems has a ratio exceeding 90x
  503. 20:16, while NSK, which makes bearings, is
  504. 20:18in the 10x range. However, since each
  505. 20:22company has a different business model
  506. 20:23and way of generating profit, you
  507. 20:25cannot determine if it's undervalued or
  508. 20:27overvalued based on this comparison
  509. 20:28alone. This video will not make that
  510. 20:30judgment either. There is one more
  511. 20:32point to note. This company saw its net
  512. 20:35profit swell significantly due to an
  513. 20:36increase in the value of the financial
  514. 20:38assets it held previously. As a result,
  515. 20:40net profit is expected to decrease this
  516. 20:42term, and the profit used in the
  517. 20:44valuation multiple calculation is
  518. 20:46smaller due to that reaction. Operating
  519. 20:48profit, which indicates earnings from
  520. 20:50the core business, is expected to
  521. 20:51increase by about 15%. For example, it
  522. 20:54is just like a household that happened
  523. 20:56to have a one-time windfall last year,
  524. 20:58making this year's income look lower.
  525. 21:00Their core salary is actually
  526. 21:02increasing. What is important for
  527. 21:05investors is that you cannot say for
  528. 21:07certain, based on multiples alone, how
  529. 21:09much the current stock price factors in
  530. 21:11both the growth in data centers and
  531. 21:12expectations for humanoid robots. The
  532. 21:17balance of margin-bought shares
  533. 21:19actually increased during the summer
  534. 21:20while the stock price was falling.
  535. 21:24Margin trading is buying stocks by
  536. 21:26borrowing money from a brokerage firm.
  537. 21:29Since there is a repayment deadline, if
  538. 21:31the balance piles up significantly, the
  539. 21:33selling associated with repayment can
  540. 21:35later weigh on the stock price. However
  541. 21:37, because there is also the option of
  542. 21:39taking physical delivery of the shares
  543. 21:41by providing cash instead of selling
  544. 21:43them, not all of the balance will
  545. 21:44necessarily become future selling
  546. 21:46pressure. As of June 26, the day after
  547. 21:49the stock price hit its high, the
  548. 21:51margin-bought balance was approximately
  549. 21:532 million shares. As of September 4, it
  550. 21:56is approximately 3.05 million shares.
  551. 21:59It has increased by a factor of 1.5. On
  552. 22:03the other hand, the margin-sold balance
  553. 22:05remains low, with the margin-bought
  554. 22:06balance significantly exceeding it.
  555. 22:09However, at the beginning of May this
  556. 22:12year, there was a time when it was even
  557. 22:14higher, at over 3.16 million shares. So
  558. 22:16this is not the highest it has ever
  559. 22:18been. There is one more point to note.
  560. 22:22These figures are weekly totals as of
  561. 22:24September 4, and subsequent movements
  562. 22:26will not be known until the next data
  563. 22:27is released. To use an analogy, it’s
  564. 22:31as if the lively festival is starting
  565. 22:33to end, yet the line in front of the
  566. 22:35food stalls is still growing. You
  567. 22:38cannot tell how that line will move in
  568. 22:40the future based on the numbers alone.
  569. 22:43For investors, what's important is to
  570. 22:45not assume that an increase in margin
  571. 22:47buying during a decline means it will
  572. 22:49definitely be sold off or that it has
  573. 22:51hit bottom, but rather to keep watching
  574. 22:52how it changes in the next report. The
  575. 22:57next check for MinebeaMitsumi is its
  576. 22:59second-quarter earnings scheduled for
  577. 23:01November 5th, where the two main points
  578. 23:03to watch are how far humanoid robot
  579. 23:04discussions have progressed and if the
  580. 23:06momentum in data centers is continuing.
  581. 23:10First, humanoid robots. Of the torque
  582. 23:14sensors, ball screws, and motors, we
  583. 23:16need to see if the number of components
  584. 23:18moving from inquiries to orders has
  585. 23:20increased, and if names of partner
  586. 23:22companies, contract values, and sales
  587. 23:24figures for humanoid robots are
  588. 23:25disclosed. Next, data centers. We need
  589. 23:31to see if bearing sales volume and
  590. 23:32price hikes are continuing; the company
  591. 23:34explains that its full-year forecast is
  592. 23:36conservative, so how the first half
  593. 23:38lands against that forecast is also a
  594. 23:40highlight. There are other events
  595. 23:43outside of the earnings to keep an eye
  596. 23:44on. These include the announcement of
  597. 23:47exhibiting at next year's CES to show
  598. 23:49an improved version of the robotic hand
  599. 23:50, and new announcements regarding the
  600. 23:52three parties they are co-developing
  601. 23:54with. I will now organize what we've
  602. 23:57discussed into conditions that support
  603. 23:59a bullish view and conditions that call
  604. 24:01for caution. This is not a
  605. 24:04recommendation to buy or sell, but
  606. 24:05rather a checklist of what
  607. 24:06announcements or figures should prompt
  608. 24:08you to update your outlook. Bullish
  609. 24:12conditions include an increase in
  610. 24:14components for humanoid robots moving
  611. 24:16to orders, disclosure of the partners,
  612. 24:18amounts, and sales figures for those
  613. 24:20orders, continued growth in bearing
  614. 24:22volume and price hikes for data centers
  615. 24:24, and sales growth for LiDAR shown in
  616. 24:26numbers. Conditions for caution include
  617. 24:31humanoid robot discussions failing to
  618. 24:32progress beyond the inquiry stage, and
  619. 24:34data center cooling shifting to liquid
  620. 24:36cooling, which could impact demand for
  621. 24:38cooling fans. Also, intensifying
  622. 24:41competition with other component
  623. 24:43manufacturers, a trend of robot makers
  624. 24:45producing parts in-house, and a failure
  625. 24:47for the automotive parts segment's
  626. 24:48profits to recover. To use an analogy,
  627. 24:53this company's report card has two
  628. 24:55columns: current earnings and future
  629. 24:57pillars, and the November earnings will
  630. 24:59specifically focus on what gets added
  631. 25:01to that future pillars column. For
  632. 25:06investors, it is crucial to distinguish
  633. 25:08between what is driving current profits
  634. 25:10and what is merely attracting hype. I
  635. 25:13will summarize today's discussion into
  636. 25:15three main points. First, the core of
  637. 25:19MinebeaMitsumi’s current profit
  638. 25:20growth is not humanoid robots, but
  639. 25:22small bearings and motors used in
  640. 25:24cooling fans for AI data centers.
  641. 25:28Second, regarding humanoid robots, the
  642. 25:30company states it has secured a large
  643. 25:32order for bearings, but neither the
  644. 25:34client nor the value has been disclosed
  645. 25:36, and other components are only at the
  646. 25:38inquiry or entry stage. Even by the
  647. 25:40company’s own estimates, sales from
  648. 25:42these will only reach about 0.5%of the
  649. 25:44total in a few years. On the other hand
  650. 25:47, there are already sales from LiDAR
  651. 25:49for autonomous driving and drones.
  652. 25:52Third, the stock price doubled since
  653. 25:54spring before dropping about 35%, with
  654. 25:56a rise in margin buying during that
  655. 25:58period. The specific cause of these
  656. 26:00fluctuations cannot be identified from
  657. 26:02the filings; the next clue will be the
  658. 26:04November 5th earnings report. This
  659. 26:07video organizes facts based on publicly
  660. 26:09available materials and does not
  661. 26:11recommend trading specific stocks.
  662. 26:14Please make investment decisions at
  663. 26:16your own risk. If there are other
  664. 26:19stocks you would like me to cover,
  665. 26:21please let me know in the comments.
  666. 26:23Thank you for watching.

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