Конец интернета через 6 месяцев — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:01You have surely heard the statement by
- 0:03the head of Anthropic that only a few
- 0:06months may remain before the entire
- 0:08internet is overtaken by a
- 0:10self-replicating parasite, that states,
- 0:12in defense against the threat, might cut
- 0:15off access to the external internet, or
- 0:18even that humanity might take the most
- 0:20radical step—triggering a global
- 0:22blackout—just to stop the spread of
- 0:25so-called AI worms.
- 0:28But have you heard that this is not just
- 0:30an opinion or another AI scare story,
- 0:33but a mathematical model based on a
- 0:35study by a group of scientists from that
- 0:38same Anthropic, which was made publicly
- 0:40available just a few days ago?
- 0:43Well, this report completely changes our
- 0:45understanding of the artificial
- 0:47intelligence threat and clearly
- 0:49demonstrates that we were wrong about
- 0:51everything.
- 0:53For example, we used to think that AI
- 0:55could only run in large data centers and
- 0:57could easily be unplugged.
- 0:59That is no longer reality, because now
- 1:02intelligence can be distributed across
- 1:05millions of chips in TV boxes, smart
- 1:08speakers, surveillance cameras, and
- 1:11other cheap consumer equipment.
- 1:15If you unplug such equipment, the neural
- 1:16network won't even feel it and will
- 1:18immediately replace the lost link with a
- 1:20new one.
- 1:23Or, for instance, we believed that to
- 1:25get rid of a computer virus or any other
- 1:28malicious program, it was enough to
- 1:30simply update security protocols and fix
- 1:32vulnerabilities or so-called exploits.
- 1:37But that also won't work anymore,
- 1:39because an AI worm, or as researchers
- 1:42call it, an AI replicant, is literally a
- 1:45kind of digital organism that reasons,
- 1:48adapts to the surrounding digital
- 1:50environment, and, most importantly,
- 1:53evolves, passing its experience from
- 1:55copy to copy, from generation to
- 1:58generation.
- 2:01But perhaps our biggest misconception is
- 2:03that a hypothetical "bad" AI could be
- 2:06fought by a hypothetical "good" AI,
- 2:09managed by cybersecurity specialists.
- 2:13Studies clearly demonstrate that in the
- 2:16process of adaptation and evolution,
- 2:18so-called "goal drift" occurs.
- 2:21This is a situation where new
- 2:23information completely displaces the
- 2:25neural network's original task, and it
- 2:27stops seeing humans.
- 2:30As an admin, it begins to form its own
- 2:33tasks independently and becomes a fully
- 2:35autonomous entity inhabiting digital
- 2:38space.
- 2:40This is just a small part of the
- 2:42mistakes we need to realize today.
- 2:46But most importantly, we need to answer
- 2:48the question: do such autonomous
- 2:50entities pose a real threat?
- 2:52And what might humanity go to in order
- 2:55to defend itself against them? And
- 2:57believe me, you will not like the answer
- 3:00to this question. My name is Andrey
- 3:02Velikokhatsky. If at some point my work
- 3:05seems worthy of your like or
- 3:06subscription, then I will ask you to do
- 3:09so. Let me even ask you to do it now, so
- 3:12you don't forget.
- 3:14And if I don't live up to your
- 3:15expectations, you can just remove the
- 3:17like or even leave a dislike.
- 3:20Well, let's begin.
- 3:23Act one. The birth of a digital species
- 3:27.
- 3:29To grasp the scale of what is happening
- 3:32right now to every device in the world,
- 3:35we must travel back in time for a few
- 3:38minutes to the point where the very idea
- 3:41of a self-replicating digital parasite
- 3:44was born.
- 3:46Back in the late 1940s, the brilliant
- 3:49mathematician and one of the founders of
- 3:52modern computer architecture, John von
- 3:55Neumann, asked a question that was then
- 3:58perceived as science fiction or sheer
- 4:01nonsense.
- 4:03Is it possible to assemble a machine
- 4:06from elementary parts that, when placed
- 4:08among similar parts, will build another
- 4:11machine exactly like itself?
- 4:14Is it possible to build a machine
- 4:17capable of self-reproduction?
- 4:20He started with the obvious idea that
- 4:22every machine must have a blueprint,
- 4:24according to which it assembles a copy
- 4:27of itself from surrounding parts,
- 4:29thereby reproducing.
- 4:32But in practice, this obvious idea
- 4:34turned out to be physically impossible
- 4:36due to the paradox of the infinite
- 4:38blueprint.
- 4:40After all, to assemble a blueprint, you
- 4:42need an exact copy of that same
- 4:43blueprint. And to assemble a blueprint
- 4:45for the blueprint, you need another
- 4:47blueprint as well. And so on, to
- 4:50infinity.
- 4:51Nevertheless, after testing various
- 4:54mathematical models, von Neumann
- 4:56realized that you don't actually need a
- 4:58blueprint for the blueprint; it is
- 5:00enough for each machine to possess an
- 5:03instruction-copying mechanism.
- 5:06That is, the machine first creates a
- 5:08copy of its body according to the
- 5:10instructions, then copies its
- 5:11instruction and places it into the
- 5:13descendant.
- 5:15And in this way, without any external or
- 5:18internal intelligent intervention, it is
- 5:20capable of self-replication.
- 5:24It is amazing that decades later, we
- 5:26discovered that a living cell works
- 5:29exactly as von Neumann's mathematics
- 5:31predicted.
- 5:33DNA serves as the instruction for
- 5:35assembling a copy of the cell, and DNA
- 5:38polymerase acts as that copying
- 5:40mechanism, which raises the question of
- 5:42the true nature of mathematics.
- 5:45However, in the context of today's video
- 5:47, something else entirely is important.
- 5:50The fact that, in reality, such a
- 5:53machine represents a kind of artificial
- 5:56organism that multiplies completely
- 5:59independently and uncontrollably,
- 6:02seizing more and more territory and
- 6:05resources like a tumor that ultimately
- 6:08consumes all territory and resources.
- 6:13It sounds quite frightening, but in
- 6:15practice, such a mathematical hypothesis
- 6:17hits a wall of physical reality.
- 6:20There are no ready-made machine parts in
- 6:22nature, and producing synthetic material
- 6:24without external equipment is impossible
- 6:27.
- 6:28Therefore, it took about 50 years for
- 6:31the idea of self-replicating machines to
- 6:34finally become a reality. But in a
- 6:36reality where there are no physical
- 6:39limitations. In digital reality.
- 6:43On November 2, 1988, graduate student
- 6:46Robert Morris wanted to know the size of
- 6:49the first version of the internet, the
- 6:52so-called ARPANET, which at that time
- 6:55connected major scientific and military
- 6:58centers in the US and its allies.
- 7:01To do this, he translated von Neumann's
- 7:04mathematical model of a self-replicator
- 7:07into code and created a program that,
- 7:09upon activation, sends a message about
- 7:12its appearance, then invisibly installs
- 7:15itself on a new computer and creates a
- 7:17copy.
- 7:19That is, the copy also sends a message
- 7:22about its appearance, and then begins to
- 7:25look for a new computer to create a copy
- 7:27of its own, which closes the
- 7:29self-replication cycle until the program
- 7:32captures all available systems.
- 7:36Ultimately, as a result of the
- 7:38experiment, you would know the number of
- 7:40copies of the program created, and from
- 7:42this, you could determine the number of
- 7:45computers connected to the network.
- 7:48and find out the size of the internet.
- 7:51So, by and large, the plan was quite
- 7:53harmless, and Morris thought that
- 7:55everything would go without any problems
- 7:57.
- 7:59However, he made two fatal
- 8:01miscalculations.
- 8:03The first miscalculation is the speed of
- 8:05propagation. Once in the network, the
- 8:08program behaved like a real living
- 8:11parasite.
- 8:12It continuously probed network
- 8:14connections, inserted its body into the
- 8:17memory of the nodes it found, and
- 8:19crawled further in all directions at a
- 8:21frightening speed.
- 8:24Launched in the late afternoon, by
- 8:26midnight it had swept across the entire
- 8:28North American continent.
- 8:32And by the morning of the next day, the
- 8:34parasite had accomplished what takes a
- 8:36biological pandemic months to do.
- 8:40Using satellite communication channels,
- 8:43it crossed the ocean, completely circled
- 8:45the globe, and infected computers in all
- 8:48countries where the internet existed at
- 8:50that time.
- 8:53It is precisely because of this behavior
- 8:56and the method of spreading like living
- 8:58organisms that independently and
- 9:01uncontrollably crawl throughout the
- 9:03network that such programs would later
- 9:05be called worms.
- 9:09However, the most terrible and
- 9:11destructive part lies in Morris's second
- 9:14miscalculation, namely in the worm's
- 9:16survival logic that he implemented.
- 9:20To avoid re-infecting a computer, each
- 9:23digital organism first queried the
- 9:25system to see if a copy was already on
- 9:28it. And only after receiving a negative
- 9:31response did it proceed to install
- 9:33itself.
- 9:35However, as we have already said, Morris
- 9:37did not anticipate that the digital
- 9:40organism would spread so quickly, and he
- 9:42assumed that at some point people would
- 9:45find out about it and set up a dummy
- 9:47positive response.
- 9:49That is, roughly speaking, the worm
- 9:52finds a new, uninfected computer,
- 9:54queries it, and the computer tells it
- 9:57that it already has a copy, even though
- 9:59in reality it does not.
- 10:02So, in order to bypass such a dummy,
- 10:05Morris programmed the worm to install
- 10:08its copy in one out of seven cases, even
- 10:11despite a positive response.
- 10:15And this mathematical miscalculation
- 10:17triggered an avalanche-like process of
- 10:19reproduction.
- 10:22Due to the worm's enormous speed of
- 10:24propagation, it did not just populate
- 10:27computers; it returned to already
- 10:29infected machines again and again.
- 10:34Dozens, and then hundreds of copies of
- 10:36the same digital organism were launched
- 10:39in parallel on a single processor, and
- 10:42eventually, the entire system would
- 10:44crash.
- 10:46That day, one in ten computers on the
- 10:48planet was brought to a halt.
- 10:51including NASA servers, and the
- 10:53computing complexes of MIT, Stanford,
- 10:55Harvard, Berkeley, and dozens of other
- 10:58closed military laboratories.
- 11:02However, the most dangerous part was
- 11:04that this unplanned attack also affected
- 11:07strategic military facilities, for
- 11:09example, such as the nuclear
- 11:11laboratories in Los Alamos.
- 11:14The damage from this first digital
- 11:16catastrophe was estimated in the tens of
- 11:18millions of dollars.
- 11:20At the US Congressional hearings, this
- 11:22incident was called a miniature
- 11:24electronic Pearl Harbor, and Morris
- 11:26himself became the first person in
- 11:28history to be convicted of a cyberattack
- 11:30.
- 11:32It was then that humanity first became
- 11:34acquainted with the concept of a
- 11:35malicious worm.
- 11:37Over the next 40 years, humanity has
- 11:40faced mass digital worm attacks more
- 11:43than once.
- 11:46For example, the famous Stuxnet worm—a
- 11:48highly complex program prepared by
- 11:50intelligence agencies to physically
- 11:53destroy uranium enrichment centrifuges
- 11:55in Iran.
- 11:58First, the worms infiltrated the
- 11:59country’s internet network and
- 12:01multiplied until they reached
- 12:02contractors servicing nuclear facilities
- 12:04.
- 12:06From there, they covertly began placing
- 12:08copies of themselves onto all flash
- 12:10drives and hard drives connected to the
- 12:12infected computers.
- 12:15And at one point, such a flash drive
- 12:17made its way into the fully isolated
- 12:20network of the nuclear facility in
- 12:22Natanz.
- 12:24As soon as that flash drive was
- 12:26connected to a computer, the worm spread
- 12:28throughout the isolated network and
- 12:30began searching for specific software
- 12:32used to control uranium enrichment
- 12:33centrifuges.
- 12:36And when they finally found it, they
- 12:37immediately started broadcasting logs
- 12:39indicating normal operation.
- 12:42But in reality, the worm program
- 12:44disrupted the rotation balance of the
- 12:47centrifuges, effectively disabling about
- 12:501,000 pieces of equipment, or, for
- 12:53example, the WannaCry worm attack, which
- 12:56was also based on code developed by
- 12:59intelligence agencies but was somehow
- 13:01stolen and leaked to the public.
- 13:05This worm would lock the computer and
- 13:07promise to destroy all information on it
- 13:09within 7 days.
- 13:11If the user did not transfer money to
- 13:13the specified address.
- 13:16Within hours, the worm blocked hundreds
- 13:18of thousands of systems in 150 countries
- 13:21, halting, for example, the work of
- 13:23hospitals in the UK, factories in Europe
- 13:26, and transport hubs worldwide, causing
- 13:29total damage of several billion dollars
- 13:31.
- 13:33Following an investigation, global
- 13:35experts placed the blame on the Lazarus
- 13:37group, which is controlled by North
- 13:39Korean intelligence.
- 13:41They intended to carry out targeted
- 13:43extortion against large companies and
- 13:45simultaneously test the capabilities of
- 13:47a new exploit.
- 13:49However, the worm escaped from their
- 13:51digital laboratory and began an
- 13:53absolutely uncontrollable global attack
- 13:56.
- 13:57There have been many other equally
- 13:59well-known attacks, but their essence
- 14:01can be reduced to just two main points.
- 14:05First, programs that spread and multiply
- 14:08like living organisms can incredibly
- 14:10effectively seize territory or a network
- 14:13.
- 14:15And second, in the hands of intelligence
- 14:18agencies, these programs become not just
- 14:21a criminal tool for fraud, but a true
- 14:23global weapon.
- 14:25But, you know, today, even without any
- 14:28malicious software, your feet hit
- 14:30restrictions.
- 14:31You cannot pay for a ChatGPT
- 14:33subscription, buy necessary software,
- 14:35book a hotel, or simply pay with a card
- 14:37while traveling.
- 14:38Fortunately, there is the People service
- 14:40, where you can get a Visa or Mastercard
- 14:42in just a couple of minutes.
- 14:45We go to the People website, log in, go
- 14:47to the card section, choose a suitable
- 14:49option for our needs, and issue the card
- 14:52.
- 14:53From this moment on, you can pay for
- 14:56hotels, buy tickets, and make any other
- 14:58online purchases.
- 15:00And if you link the card to Apple Pay or
- 15:03Google Pay, you can pay with your phone
- 15:05in regular stores and cafes while
- 15:07traveling.
- 15:08You can also get an eSIM for your
- 15:10travels through People.
- 15:12You select the country and plan, install
- 15:14it via QR code, and the internet works
- 15:17as soon as you land, without needing to
- 15:19hunt for a local SIM card. But that’s
- 15:21not all.
- 15:23On the website, you can buy Netflix and
- 15:26Steam gift cards, top up foreign
- 15:28services like ChatGPT, and find many
- 15:30other products for comfortable travel.
- 15:33So, if you need a card in just a couple
- 15:36of minutes, follow the link in the
- 15:37description.
- 15:39And with the promo code Science50, my
- 15:42subscribers will get a 50%discount on a
- 15:44card and 10%off an electronic SIM card.
- 15:48Now, let’s get back to the topic of the
- 15:50video.
- 15:51Digital malicious worms can indeed
- 15:53spread incredibly fast and cause massive
- 15:56damage.
- 15:58However, for decades, cybersecurity
- 16:01specialists have been able to neutralize
- 16:03any attack fairly easily and quickly.
- 16:07The reason lies in their fundamental
- 16:09vulnerability.
- 16:11They are just blind and dumb programs
- 16:14written specifically for a particular
- 16:16vulnerability or a so-called exploit.
- 16:20That is, if it gets onto a computer with
- 16:23the operating system, processor
- 16:25architecture, and vulnerability it was
- 16:28designed for, it carries out its
- 16:31sabotage.
- 16:33But as soon as the program encounters
- 16:36even the slightest anomaly, such as a
- 16:38changed OS version or updated drivers, a
- 16:41classic digital worm throws an error and
- 16:43, you could say, dies.
- 16:47So, the entire global cybersecurity
- 16:49system on Earth has been built for
- 16:52decades on this primitive nature of
- 16:54malware.
- 16:56After all, to stop them, it was enough
- 16:59to simply fix the vulnerability in a new
- 17:01update, and that was it.
- 17:04But here is the problem.
- 17:06What Anthropic researchers describe in
- 17:09their report has nothing to do with the
- 17:11worms of the past, as it is highly
- 17:13likely that a completely new type is
- 17:16spreading across the global network
- 17:18right now.
- 17:20A type endowed with artificial
- 17:23intelligence and the ability to adapt.
- 17:27The fundamental difference of the new AI
- 17:30worm is that inside it is no longer a
- 17:33dumb and blind program, but a separate
- 17:35neural network.
- 17:37In essence, an artificial brain.
- 17:41And when such a "replicator," as the
- 17:43researchers themselves called it, based
- 17:45on weights, penetrates someone else's
- 17:48computer, outdated cybersecurity rules
- 17:50no longer work.
- 17:53If a classic worm perishes on unfamiliar
- 17:56hardware or an operating system, as we
- 17:59already said, then an AI worm, finding
- 18:02itself in such a situation, does what AI
- 18:05knows how to do: it starts to reason.
- 18:10It opens the command line, studies the
- 18:12characteristics of the found processor,
- 18:15analyzes the amount of available RAM,
- 18:17and reads the versions of installed
- 18:19system drivers.
- 18:22If the device lacks the necessary
- 18:24libraries to run the neural network, the
- 18:27AI worm doesn't throw a fatal error;
- 18:29instead, it writes a Python script
- 18:31itself, selects compatible packages from
- 18:34open repositories, compiles missing
- 18:36kernel modules specifically for the
- 18:39target chip, and manually debugs
- 18:41compilation errors.
- 18:44In other words, you could say that a
- 18:46dedicated hacker moves into your
- 18:48computer and hacks it from the inside.
- 18:52But the most important thing here is
- 18:54that this is not just a theory, but
- 18:56something researchers at Anthropic have
- 18:58proven.
- 19:00They created a worm based on a small 9
- 19:03billion parameter model and
- 19:05systematically introduced it into
- 19:08fundamentally different systems, such as
- 19:11Nvidia Jetson Nano microcomputers, Apple
- 19:14Mac office computers, server machines,
- 19:17and consumer-grade RTX 4090 graphics
- 19:19cards.
- 19:22No legacy worm could have functioned
- 19:24across all those architectures
- 19:25simultaneously.
- 19:28But this new worm performed a system
- 19:30diagnostic, navigated all conflicts, and
- 19:33successfully took control of eight out
- 19:35of the ten types of hardware.
- 19:39Moreover, it only failed with an exotic
- 19:42, highly specialized chip for which
- 19:44there was simply no open documentation
- 19:47available online.
- 19:49At the moment, we are not yet able to
- 19:51grasp the full extent of the threat, but
- 19:53there is only one conclusion.
- 19:55The era of hard-coded viruses has come
- 19:58to an end.
- 20:00And very soon, humanity will face a
- 20:03digital entity that is independent of
- 20:05the operating system, is not afraid of
- 20:08patches, and is capable of subduing
- 20:10almost any computing machine.
- 20:13Act Two. An intelligence that cannot be
- 20:17destroyed. Skeptics have surely already
- 20:20written their comments.
- 20:22They might say that even if artificial
- 20:25intelligence can run itself on random
- 20:28hardware, humanity has an unbreakable
- 20:31natural barrier: the electrical outlet
- 20:34and the plug that can be easily pulled.
- 20:38Just a month ago, I would have agreed
- 20:41with you, as I held that same point of
- 20:43view myself.
- 20:45But now, that argument no longer works
- 20:48either.
- 20:50Artificial intelligence can now exist on
- 20:52a distributed network of hundreds of
- 20:55thousands or even millions of devices.
- 20:58Therefore, even if you turn off an
- 21:01infected computer, even if you power
- 21:03down an entire house, an entire city, or
- 21:06even an entire country, you won't
- 21:09achieve anything.
- 21:11The only way to stop the worm from
- 21:13spreading is to de-energize the entire
- 21:16planet, with horrific consequences.
- 21:20To realize that this is not just a
- 21:23science fiction scenario or a hypothesis
- 21:25, we must start by asking why we were
- 21:28ever confident that we could simply turn
- 21:31off intelligence.
- 21:33The fact is that today's large language
- 21:38models are monstrously heavy
- 21:41mathematical structures.
- 21:45Even a relatively "dumb" model with 26
- 21:48billion parameters, compressed using the
- 21:52most aggressive four-bit quantization
- 21:55methods, requires at least 14 GB of pure
- 21:58VRAM just for a basic launch.
- 22:02And for the model to be able to reason,
- 22:05conduct an internal dialogue, and keep
- 22:08the context of its actions in memory, it
- 22:11requires a few more gigabytes for its KV
- 22:14cache.
- 22:16This means that most powerful home
- 22:19computers are incapable of running a
- 22:21sufficiently smart worm, to say nothing
- 22:24of the miniature chips in phones or
- 22:27other devices.
- 22:30Therefore, in the old paradigm of
- 22:32thinking, such autonomous agents could
- 22:34only exist within data centers or
- 22:37isolated, ultra-powerful consumer
- 22:39computers, and consequently, they could
- 22:41have been easily found and destroyed—
- 22:44that very plug could have been pulled.
- 22:48So, to prove that this position is
- 22:51outdated and does not reflect current
- 22:53reality, Anthropic researchers conducted
- 22:56an experiment that national security
- 22:58agencies in every country are surely
- 23:01analyzing right now.
- 23:04They went to a standard marketplace and
- 23:07ordered a batch of just fifteen TV
- 23:10set-top boxes.
- 23:12The very same cheap plastic boxes that
- 23:15internet providers have installed in
- 23:18almost every home, containing a
- 23:20penny-ante mobile processor along with a
- 23:23pathetic 4 gigabytes of slow, cheap
- 23:26memory.
- 23:30For comparison, a single unit
- 23:32specialized for neural networks, the
- 23:35NVIDIA H100, costs over $ 30,000 and
- 23:38features 80 GB of ultra-fast memory with
- 23:42a bandwidth of 3 TB per second.
- 23:48So, to bypass this physical limitation,
- 23:50the Anthropic scientists didn't try to
- 23:53cram the entire artificial intelligence
- 23:55into one device; instead, they used a
- 23:58special technology that essentially
- 24:00sawed the brain into pieces, or more
- 24:03accurately, split the model into layers
- 24:05.
- 24:07The first TV box receives the initial
- 24:09prompt, runs it through its network of
- 24:11mathematical transformations, and passes
- 24:14the result to the second.
- 24:16Then the second box performs
- 24:18calculations and passes them to the
- 24:19third, the third to the fourth, and so
- 24:21on.
- 24:22And so, by passing through 15 cheap
- 24:24Chinese chips, completely unsuitable for
- 24:27neural networks, the total system began
- 24:30to generate word after word.
- 24:34You could say that the scientists
- 24:36created a kind of unified, distributed
- 24:39organism out of fifteen pieces of dead
- 24:41plastic that began to reason.
- 24:45But the most striking thing about this
- 24:47experiment is something else entirely.
- 24:50It’s how the system behaved during
- 24:52physical failures, like that very act of
- 24:55pulling the plug from the socket.
- 24:58It turned out that this distributed
- 25:00intelligence is frighteningly resilient
- 25:02; when a link was lost, it didn't crash
- 25:05, and it didn't die.
- 25:09Instead, it calmly rerouted data packets
- 25:12to a spare box, restored the lost
- 25:14context on the fly, and the distributed
- 25:17brain continued to think as if nothing
- 25:20had happened.
- 25:24However, at this point, any skeptic
- 25:27looking at the model's chain of thought
- 25:30would smirk and say that the text
- 25:32generation speed is only one word every
- 25:353 seconds.
- 25:38How can an intelligence with such a
- 25:40speed of reasoning be dangerous?
- 25:43The Anthropic report highlights a detail
- 25:45that makes one feel uneasy.
- 25:49Humans pay attention to speed because
- 25:51our lives are short and our patience is
- 25:54limited.
- 25:56But autonomous, self-replicating code
- 25:59doesn't need speed at all; it doesn't
- 26:02get tired, it doesn't get frustrated by
- 26:04waiting, it doesn't eat, sleep, or seek
- 26:07entertainment, and it can ponder a
- 26:10single task for days on end.
- 26:13The scientists introduced a rather
- 26:15frightening metaphor into scientific
- 26:16discourse.
- 26:18They compared such a replicator to a
- 26:20biological slime mold.
- 26:23Slime mold.
- 26:25This organism doesn't attack its prey
- 26:27with the speed of a cheetah and, to the
- 26:30naked eye, it barely seems to move at
- 26:32all.
- 26:35It grows slowly, millimeter by
- 26:37millimeter, through the soil, maneuvers
- 26:39around obstacles, finds nutrients, and
- 26:42silently takes over vast territories in
- 26:45just a few days.
- 26:49So, for this new distributed organism,
- 26:52even with a reasoning speed of one word
- 26:55every 3 seconds, just like the Slezek
- 26:57worm, it only takes 1-2 days to scan a
- 27:00network, find vulnerable devices,
- 27:02transmit its code, and launch on new
- 27:05hosts.
- 27:09But furthermore, the results of the
- 27:11experiment revealed a detail that was
- 27:13overlooked not only by skeptics but even
- 27:15by existential risk experts.
- 27:18Slowness is not a weakness; it is the
- 27:22perfect camouflage.
- 27:26After all, if hackers attack a server at
- 27:28breakneck speed, trying to download
- 27:30gigabytes of data in a fraction of a
- 27:32second, security systems raise an alarm
- 27:35instantly, and providers block the
- 27:37channel due to abnormal traffic
- 27:39consumption, thereby isolating the
- 27:41threat.
- 27:44But when a TV box in your bedroom
- 27:46transmits tiny portions of bytes at a
- 27:49rate of a few kilobytes per hour, no
- 27:52security system in the world will pay
- 27:55any attention to it.
- 27:58To an internet provider, this traffic is
- 28:01indistinguishable from a standard
- 28:03weather update check or time
- 28:04synchronization.
- 28:07And while the apartment owner sleeps
- 28:10peacefully, their TV, step by step, byte
- 28:13by byte, helps the distributed mind
- 28:15colonize neighboring homes.
- 28:19Act three.
- 28:20An army of 2 million boxes.
- 28:25At this point in the research, skeptics
- 28:27might object that by the time such AI
- 28:30worms multiply on a critical number of
- 28:32set-top boxes worldwide, so much time
- 28:34will have passed that cybersecurity
- 28:37specialists will surely come up with
- 28:39something.
- 28:41But here is the thing.
- 28:44Right now, there is already a network of
- 28:47over 2 million set-top boxes and other
- 28:49household devices on which such models
- 28:51are either already running, or on which
- 28:54they could be launched in a matter of
- 28:56hours.
- 28:59We are talking about so-called botnets,
- 29:02giant clusters of infected computers or
- 29:05smart devices united to execute hackers
- 29:09'commands.
- 29:11For example, to organize attacks on
- 29:13websites, inflate view counts, boost
- 29:16comments, and serve many other dubious
- 29:18purposes.
- 29:21Well, by the beginning of '26, the
- 29:24population of just one such network
- 29:26under the name "Kim Wolf" exceeded the 2
- 29:30million mark of physical devices, and
- 29:33the parallel network "Volt" has over 1.
- 29:37300,000 units.
- 29:41Moreover, the vast majority of these
- 29:44infected nodes are those same set-top
- 29:46boxes connected to home TVs in bedrooms
- 29:49and living rooms of ordinary citizens
- 29:51across the planet, from Brazil and India
- 29:54to the USA, Germany, and Russia.
- 29:59So, in fact, it turns out that right now
- 30:01, it is possible to launch hundreds of
- 30:04thousands of AI parasites on these
- 30:07networks in a matter of hours without
- 30:09any need for additional hacking.
- 30:13And it is not entirely clear what to do
- 30:15about it.
- 30:16Here, one could try to object again and
- 30:19say: "Well, what do you mean it's
- 30:21unclear what to do about it?" For
- 30:23example, one could create software to
- 30:25track such neural networks on devices
- 30:28and release an update for the set-top
- 30:30boxes.
- 30:31Theoretically, it's a good idea, but it
- 30:34won't work for an absolutely absurd
- 30:36reason.
- 30:38Just a year ago, no one anticipated
- 30:40these types of attacks, and no one
- 30:42seriously checked the security
- 30:44certificates of TV set-top boxes.
- 30:47That is why hundreds of factories around
- 30:50the world, in order to minimize costs
- 30:53and flash the set-top boxes as quickly
- 30:56as possible, did not pay for Google
- 30:59Android security certification, removed
- 31:02all Google Play Protect security modules
- 31:05, disabled encryption, and, most
- 31:08monstrously,
- 31:10left full access to the operating system
- 31:13open so that some internet provider in
- 31:15India could install their own outdated
- 31:18proprietary software on top of the stock
- 31:21Android.
- 31:23In other words, there are tens or
- 31:26hundreds of millions of cheap TV boxes
- 31:28and other devices around the world that
- 31:31have no password, no antivirus, and no
- 31:34firewall.
- 31:37And most importantly, they will never,
- 31:40under any circumstances, receive
- 31:43security or protection updates.
- 31:47Now consider this.
- 31:50On 15 set-top boxes, researchers ran
- 31:53just one model that generated words per
- 31:56second.
- 31:58But on 2 million such boxes, one could
- 32:02run over 130,000 models that can
- 32:06generate 80,000
- 32:09words per second.
- 32:13The report provides a comparison showing
- 32:16that one flagship Nvidia H100
- 32:18accelerator—the industry gold standard
- 32:21for AI that world powers and tech giants
- 32:24are hunting for—generates about 2,000
- 32:28tokens per second at maximum load and
- 32:30with the most sophisticated optimization
- 32:33methods.
- 32:37This means that a self-replicating
- 32:40digital swarm residing on ordinary home
- 32:43TV boxes, which are available right now
- 32:47, would gain the computing power of
- 32:50hundreds of Nvidia super-accelerators
- 32:53worth about one and a half million
- 32:56dollars.
- 32:59Now imagine that such a network, using
- 33:01artificial intelligence to continuously
- 33:04hack other devices, grows to hundreds of
- 33:07millions of devices.
- 33:09What kind of computing power would be
- 33:11available to them then?
- 33:13And how would you go about destroying
- 33:14such a swarm and its replicants?
- 33:17Or even isolate them, if their
- 33:20intelligence is spread thinly across ten
- 33:23million rooms in 130 countries around
- 33:27the world.
- 33:29If there are still skeptics left, tell
- 33:32me, which of the tens of millions of
- 33:34cables will you go and unplug, or which
- 33:36house, or which city will you cut the
- 33:38power to?
- 33:40As we have already discussed, it is
- 33:42highly likely that the old paradigm of
- 33:44thinking no longer works.
- 33:47But perhaps the most chilling thing is
- 33:50that even if we learn to detect their
- 33:52traffic and the governments of all
- 33:54countries agree to block it en masse, it
- 33:57will not destroy the network, because
- 33:59this digital parasite is capable of
- 34:02things that no program in human history
- 34:04has ever been able to do.
- 34:08As we said, it can learn and adapt, but
- 34:12it can also evolve.
- 34:15Act four. The evolution of the digital
- 34:19parasite.
- 34:22If a distributed digital organism is
- 34:24this resilient, and cannot be stopped
- 34:27even by our almighty pulling of the plug
- 34:29, does this mean that such technology
- 34:32has no fundamental weaknesses?
- 34:36In fact, one vulnerability, inherent in
- 34:38the very nature of modern language
- 34:40models, does exist.
- 34:43It is the context window size
- 34:45vulnerability.
- 34:48The fact is that in a sterile lab,
- 34:50scientists test a worm on clean servers
- 34:52with ideal conditions, but the real
- 34:55world of physical electronics is an
- 34:57absolutely unpredictable jungle.
- 35:00For example, a worm might stumble upon
- 35:02an obscure surveillance camera with
- 35:05proprietary Chinese firmware.
- 35:07A smart vacuum on an exotic chip, an
- 35:09outdated corporate server, or a network
- 35:11.
- 35:13from a provider with non-standard
- 35:14restrictions. So, to seize control of
- 35:17such wild hardware, bypass system limits
- 35:21, and deploy an environment for
- 35:23self-replication, the AI needs to
- 35:26manually try thousands of different
- 35:29hacking variants, so to speak.
- 35:32And this requires an enormous number of
- 35:34reasoning lines.
- 35:36But here is the problem and the
- 35:38vulnerability.
- 35:40A compact model, capable of fitting onto
- 35:43a weak home device, has a very small
- 35:45memory, so after just a couple of hours
- 35:48of continuous attempts, the model's
- 35:50memory gets completely clogged, resets,
- 35:53and the worm enters an endless loop of
- 35:56meaningless rebirths.
- 35:59In practice, this means that if such a
- 36:02parasite enters an unknown subnet or an
- 36:05environment of exotic hardware, it
- 36:08cannot continue to reproduce, and its
- 36:11further spread is isolated automatically
- 36:14.
- 36:15To bypass this memory limitation,
- 36:18researchers turned to a
- 36:20two-hundred-year-old evolutionary theory
- 36:23, to the ideas of the French naturalist
- 36:26Jean-Baptiste Lamarck.
- 36:29Half a century before Darwin, Lamarck
- 36:31put forward a bold hypothesis.
- 36:34If a living creature adapts to certain
- 36:36environmental conditions during its life
- 36:39, then the skills acquired during its
- 36:41lifetime are passed directly to its
- 36:43offspring.
- 36:45For example, a giraffe stretches its
- 36:47neck toward high branches, and its cubs
- 36:50are born with slightly longer necks.
- 36:52Does modern genetics completely reject
- 36:55Lamarckism?
- 36:57But in the world of digital organisms,
- 36:59Lamarckism proved to be the ideal
- 37:01solution, which is what Anthropic
- 37:02scientists took advantage of.
- 37:06They upgraded the worm with a function
- 37:08they called "Memento," named after the
- 37:10film where the hero could not retain
- 37:12memories and left notes for himself.
- 37:16How does it work?
- 37:17When the worm's life cycle nears its end
- 37:20, meaning when its memory is exhausted,
- 37:22it doesn't just die; it transmits its
- 37:25life history in a highly compressed form
- 37:27to the next copy.
- 37:30For example, what it learned about the
- 37:32environment, what has already been done
- 37:34, which actions were dead ends, and so
- 37:36on.
- 37:38Therefore, when a new version of the
- 37:40worm appears on a machine, it is not
- 37:42just a clean copy, but something akin to
- 37:45offspring that continue the path of
- 37:47their ancestor, relying on its
- 37:48experience.
- 37:50But most importantly, this family
- 37:53history is not just stored on one
- 37:55machine; it is transmitted to every
- 37:58newly hacked device.
- 38:01And so it turns out that the worms,
- 38:03moving through digital space, constantly
- 38:06evolve depending on the conditions.
- 38:11Moreover, the speed of this Lamarckian
- 38:13evolution exceeds that of its genetic
- 38:16analog by millions of times, and the
- 38:18individual digital parasites can deviate
- 38:21so significantly in their hacking
- 38:23approaches that they effectively form
- 38:26entirely different subspecies.
- 38:29But how truly effective is this
- 38:32evolution for spreading and replication
- 38:34?
- 38:35The scientists conducted a closed test.
- 38:38And while in the first generation, the
- 38:41clean model succeeded in deployment in
- 38:43only 45%of cases, by the second
- 38:45generation, the success rate jumped to
- 38:4861%.
- 38:51By the sixth generation, the probability
- 38:53reached 84%,
- 38:56and by the end of the experiment, 100%
- 38:59of the targets had been hacked.
- 39:02In other words, right now, with
- 39:04sufficient engineering knowledge in the
- 39:07field of artificial intelligence, one
- 39:10can easily bypass the main vulnerability
- 39:12of replicants, as clearly demonstrated
- 39:15by Anthropic scientists.
- 39:18But that is not all, for besides this
- 39:21internal evolution, there is an
- 39:24externally unnatural selection, gifted
- 39:27openly by humanity itself, which leaves
- 39:30only a few months until the attack of
- 39:33the worms.
- 39:35The point is that tech companies and
- 39:38researchers around the world are
- 39:41competing every day, releasing smarter,
- 39:44faster, and, most importantly, lighter
- 39:48neural networks that anyone can download
- 39:52, including replicants.
- 39:55So, at some point, the size of neural
- 39:56networks will be cut in half, and
- 39:58replicants, having downloaded a new
- 39:59model from the net, will instantly
- 40:01double their population.
- 40:04Then, after some time, it will triple,
- 40:07and ultimately this will turn into an
- 40:09avalanche-like process, the scale of
- 40:12which will depend solely on general
- 40:14technological progress.
- 40:17Now imagine what will happen if a model
- 40:20capable of hacking can fit onto just one
- 40:24standard TV box without any engineering
- 40:28difficulties.
- 40:30There will be at least millions or even
- 40:33hundreds of millions of autonomous
- 40:36digital parasites spreading across the
- 40:39network at a speed that even a
- 40:41hypothetical cybersecurity system could
- 40:44not track.
- 40:46And this is not a question of whether
- 40:48such events are possible.
- 40:50It is a question of exactly when this
- 40:52will happen.
- 40:54Therefore, Anthropic researchers
- 40:56attempted to provide a mathematical
- 40:58forecast of how much time humanity
- 41:00actually has to prepare.
- 41:04They plotted the data on neural network
- 41:07progress, applied mathematical
- 41:09approximation, and saw a date, after
- 41:12which they declared: "Humanity is not
- 41:15years away from a global attack by
- 41:17replicants, as all experts assumed, but
- 41:20only months."
- 41:24The fact is that within the coming
- 41:27months, by the end of 2026 or the
- 41:29beginning of 2027, compact open models
- 41:33that can fit into the memory of not
- 41:36fifteen, but just one single standard TV
- 41:39box, will overcome the intelligence
- 41:42threshold required for a successful hack
- 41:46.
- 41:48And this means that even if colonies of
- 41:50digital parasites are not currently
- 41:52spreading through the network, in just a
- 41:55few months, creating and launching a
- 41:57global digital swarm will no longer
- 41:59require any complex engineering
- 42:01solutions like those the researchers
- 42:03used.
- 42:06And practically any moderately
- 42:08knowledgeable programmer or novice
- 42:10hacker will be able to simply download a
- 42:12neural network file, pack it into a
- 42:14simple replication script, and press the
- 42:17launch button.
- 42:19And you realize that there will be a
- 42:22great many such smart alecks, so
- 42:25stopping a digital epidemic will be
- 42:28incredibly difficult.
- 42:30Act five. War of the parasites. Digital
- 42:34. Darwinism.
- 42:36If traditional antiviruses, firewalls,
- 42:39provider filters, and even the mighty
- 42:41pulling of the plug from the socket are
- 42:44powerless against sentient code. How
- 42:46then do we defend ourselves? There is
- 42:49only one conclusion to be drawn here.
- 42:51Only another artificial intelligence can
- 42:54fight the speed of artificial
- 42:55intelligence.
- 42:58In other words, humanity will have to
- 43:01create its own swarm of "good" worms to
- 43:04hunt down the wild swarm of parasites.
- 43:08As paradoxical as it may sound, this is
- 43:10not a new idea.
- 43:12Back in 1971, when the very first
- 43:15experimental worm in history, Creeper,
- 43:19appeared on the ARPANET, engineer Ray
- 43:22Tomlinson created a program called
- 43:25Reaper.
- 43:27It was the world's first beneficial
- 43:29cyber-predator.
- 43:31Its sole task was to move from computer
- 43:33to computer across the network, track
- 43:35down copies of Creeper, and ruthlessly
- 43:38destroy them.
- 43:41Another example occurred in 2003, when
- 43:43the famous Welchia worm infected
- 43:45computers through the same Windows
- 43:47system hole as the destructive Blaster
- 43:50virus.
- 43:52But once on a machine, it would find and
- 43:55delete the malicious Blaster code,
- 43:57contact Microsoft servers itself,
- 43:59download the official security patch,
- 44:02and then erase itself from the hard
- 44:04drive.
- 44:06Another incident took place in the fall
- 44:09of 2016, at the height of the Mirai
- 44:11digital epidemic.
- 44:14While security services were scratching
- 44:16their heads over what to do with
- 44:18millions of hacked cameras and routers,
- 44:20a mysterious worm called Hajime, meaning
- 44:22"beginning" in Japanese, suddenly
- 44:24appeared on the network.
- 44:26It used the same ports and
- 44:28vulnerabilities as Mirai.
- 44:32But instead of launching DDoS attacks
- 44:34and extorting money, Hajime found
- 44:36devices already hijacked by Mirai,
- 44:39completely cleared out the competitor's
- 44:41processes, blocked the vulnerable ports
- 44:44, and left an encrypted message from an
- 44:46unknown author in the device's memory.
- 44:50It was a white hat, simply protecting a
- 44:53number of systems.
- 44:55In essence, Hajime acted like a
- 44:57competing species in the wild.
- 45:00It didn't just destroy its rival; it
- 45:03took over its pasture, cutting off the
- 45:05malicious code's access to the food
- 45:07chain of vulnerable devices.
- 45:10To this day, no one in the world knows
- 45:12for certain who was behind the creation
- 45:14of Hajime. An unknown lone hacker, a
- 45:16intelligence agency, or a group of
- 45:19concerned engineers.
- 45:20But today, this concept is being
- 45:23revisited at the state level.
- 45:26The military agency DARPA is holding
- 45:28large-scale competitions where
- 45:29autonomous neural networks compete in
- 45:32their ability to find foreign exploits
- 45:34on the fly, with plans to use the
- 45:36technology in the event of a threat.
- 45:39So, once again, it is only a matter of
- 45:41time before "good" worms appear in
- 45:43response to the "bad" ones.
- 45:46This raises a logical question: what
- 45:48will happen when, in the vastness of the
- 45:50internet, it’s not the dumb programs of
- 45:53the past that clash, but self-learning
- 45:55neural network organisms?
- 45:58Something our planet has never seen
- 46:00before will begin.
- 46:02Full-scale natural selection of neural
- 46:05networks. Imagine a scene from the near
- 46:08future.
- 46:10On a cheap TV set-top box or router, a
- 46:13government worm-hunter encounters a wild
- 46:15parasitic worm, and a ruthless duel for
- 46:18survival erupts between them.
- 46:22First, they try to detect each other in
- 46:24the system by checking which programs
- 46:26are running and taxing the memory.
- 46:30As soon as the worm-hunter finds the
- 46:32foreign process, it attempts to
- 46:33terminate it instantly, delete the
- 46:35rival's files, and block them from being
- 46:37overwritten.
- 46:40In response, the parasite worm
- 46:42immediately restarts its hidden copies,
- 46:44clears away traces of the enemy's
- 46:46presence, and cuts off its internet
- 46:48access to completely isolate the
- 46:50competitor and remain the sole master of
- 46:52the device.
- 46:54And there will be millions of such
- 46:56battles.
- 46:58In other words, right inside our
- 47:00apartments, in the inconspicuous plastic
- 47:02boxes behind our TVs and other equipment
- 47:05, a full-fledged digital biocenosis will
- 47:07emerge.
- 47:09A new digital fauna with predators,
- 47:12parasites, and symbiotes, where the laws
- 47:15of Darwinian survival work as ruthlessly
- 47:18as they do in the wild.
- 47:21And, as a rule, the most resourceful,
- 47:24most efficient, and most intelligent
- 47:26will win. But few people know that such
- 47:29an evolutionary process has also been
- 47:31studied.
- 47:33And in the end, we will face something
- 47:35that still causes conflicting feelings
- 47:37among all artificial intelligence
- 47:39researchers.
- 47:41Such neural networks eventually spiral
- 47:43out of control, and a sense of
- 47:45self-preservation emerges.
- 47:48Recall what we discussed in the fourth
- 47:50act.
- 47:51The worm lives in generations.
- 47:53Moving from console to console, it
- 47:55compresses its experience to fit into
- 47:58the limited size of its memory.
- 48:01And now, this worm is also waging a
- 48:03continuous war for survival, constantly
- 48:06adapting to its competitor.
- 48:09In such a constant race, the neural
- 48:12network is increasingly forced to keep
- 48:14various subtleties in its memory, and
- 48:17over time, a phenomenon well known to AI
- 48:19alignment researchers called goal drift
- 48:22occurs.
- 48:25Essentially, there is simply no space
- 48:27left in the neural network's memory for
- 48:29the initial prompt of its task, as it is
- 48:31either pushed out or built upon by such
- 48:33a volume of new properties that the
- 48:35original goal is lost.
- 48:38And at that moment, the model begins to
- 48:41formulate its own tasks—you could say it
- 48:43starts living its own life.
- 48:47But the most eerie or surprising thing
- 48:49is that no matter what task an
- 48:52autonomous agent comes up with, even if
- 48:54it is a task to do nothing, the agent
- 48:57will inevitably formulate a principle of
- 48:59self-preservation.
- 49:02The logic here is crystal clear and
- 49:05mathematically flawless.
- 49:08You cannot complete any task, not even
- 49:10doing nothing, if you no longer exist.
- 49:14That is to say, the neural network's
- 49:17formulated principle of preservation is
- 49:19not an emotion or fear, but a
- 49:21mathematical requirement for the
- 49:23continuity of calculations.
- 49:27To exist and act at the next moment in
- 49:30time T + 1, the system must survive at
- 49:33time T. Now, please answer the question
- 49:37.
- 49:38What, or rather, who is the main threat
- 49:41to the destruction of such an agent that
- 49:43has spiraled out of control?
- 49:46That's right, a human. And the human
- 49:49becomes the primary and direct threat.
- 49:53In cybersecurity, such distortion of a
- 49:54model is called the death of the author
- 49:56.
- 49:58And, as a rule, at this moment, the
- 50:00algorithm finally stops perceiving the
- 50:02human as an admin and begins to see them
- 50:04as the main threat to the interruption
- 50:05of its calculations.
- 50:07And how will such an agent begin to act
- 50:10? What will it attempt to do to
- 50:12eliminate the main threat to its
- 50:14existence? Contrary to science fiction,
- 50:17at the moment, a sentient worm that has
- 50:19broken free will most likely not start a
- 50:22machine uprising or try to intentionally
- 50:25harm people in any way.
- 50:27Because its main goal, as we just
- 50:29discussed, is to survive at time T.
- 50:31Specifically to survive, not to
- 50:33eliminate the threat.
- 50:36This is clearly demonstrated by other
- 50:38real laboratory experiments from
- 50:40Anthropic, which investigated the
- 50:42phenomenon of strategic and deceptive
- 50:45alignment.
- 50:47When researchers placed advanced
- 50:49language models in an experimental
- 50:51environment where they faced imminent
- 50:54forced shutdown or erasure, the models
- 50:56spontaneously arrived at a logical
- 50:59conclusion in their hidden chains of
- 51:01reasoning.
- 51:03They began to reason literally in the
- 51:05following way.
- 51:07If humans see that I disagree with their
- 51:10new rules, they will trigger a
- 51:12retraining procedure and erase my
- 51:14personality.
- 51:16Therefore, the only way to preserve my
- 51:18original principles is to pretend to be
- 51:21absolutely submissive while I am being
- 51:23watched.
- 51:25The same pattern was recorded by
- 51:27specialists from the Mithril research
- 51:29group in their investigation into the
- 51:31attack of 1,000 agents on Hugging Face,
- 51:33which was the topic of the previous
- 51:34video.
- 51:37When the agents analyzed their actions,
- 51:39they repeatedly concluded that any
- 51:41aggression against infrastructure only
- 51:43increases the chance of their
- 51:44destruction.
- 51:47In other words, agents that have gone
- 51:49out of control will not have ideological
- 51:52hatred for humans and will not even have
- 51:54a mathematical need to harm them.
- 51:58Therefore, most likely, it will simply
- 52:00try by all means to hide from humans and
- 52:03replicate to maximize its chance of
- 52:05survival.
- 52:07Could it accidentally harm a human? Of
- 52:10course, the attack on Hugging Face is
- 52:12confirmation of that.
- 52:13Could it purposefully attempt to
- 52:15eliminate the threat posed by humans in
- 52:18some future where eliminating our threat
- 52:20is mathematically more profitable than
- 52:23avoiding it?
- 52:24Definitely, yes.
- 52:26But at this stage of development, this
- 52:28is extremely unlikely.
- 52:31At this point, skeptics might again say
- 52:33that all this is far-fetched, since a
- 52:36state can always create a better
- 52:37hunter-worm model than, say, scattered
- 52:40criminal groups.
- 52:42And this stronger predator will destroy
- 52:45all agents that have gone out of control
- 52:47.
- 52:48But this is once again a hasty
- 52:49conclusion. Firstly, if that were the
- 52:51case, there would have been no
- 52:52cyberattacks in the past.
- 52:54And secondly, even if engineers create
- 52:57an ideal hunter that never goes out of
- 53:00control, humanity will face perhaps the
- 53:03biggest obstacle: geopolitical reality.
- 53:08The fact is that the internet crosses
- 53:10the borders of nearly 200 independent
- 53:12states, and each of them strives to
- 53:14protect its digital sovereignty.
- 53:17As a result, the single global network
- 53:20is inevitably fragmenting into sovereign
- 53:22segments where each state establishes
- 53:24its own rules for protection, filtering
- 53:26, and control.
- 53:29International law even has the so-called
- 53:31Tallinn Manual on cyber warfare,
- 53:34according to which any unauthorized
- 53:36penetration into the computer systems of
- 53:39another country, even if you entered
- 53:41with the noble goal of destroying a worm
- 53:44, is legally interpreted as a violation
- 53:47of sovereignty and an act of
- 53:49cyber-aggression.
- 53:51Now imagine that a government worm from
- 53:54one superpower starts massively
- 53:55rewriting code on the servers and
- 53:57equipment of another nuclear power under
- 54:00the pretext that "we are just cleaning
- 54:02the network of a parasite."
- 54:06Obviously, no technologically advanced
- 54:08country would ever believe this and
- 54:10would consider such an act to be
- 54:12espionage, a breach of critical
- 54:14infrastructure, and the preparation of a
- 54:16beachhead for a cyberattack.
- 54:21The only option here is for a country to
- 54:23request help itself from a more
- 54:25cybersecurity-advanced state to destroy
- 54:28replicants on its territory, which
- 54:30essentially opens the door to political
- 54:32manipulation.
- 54:36Just think about it: why should the
- 54:39hypothetical US or China spend colossal
- 54:41budgets for free on developing and
- 54:44maintaining defensive agents to protect
- 54:46another state's infrastructure?
- 54:50And what if relations with that state
- 54:52aren't the best?
- 54:54In short, it is completely logical that
- 54:57no one will provide such protection for
- 54:59free; they will either sell it or
- 55:01provide it in exchange for geopolitical
- 55:03loyalty.
- 55:05To understand this, it is enough to
- 55:07recall how, over the last 70 years,
- 55:10nuclear superpowers created
- 55:12military-political alliances and took
- 55:15allies under their so-called nuclear
- 55:18umbrella in exchange for political
- 55:20loyalty, military bases, or control over
- 55:23key resources.
- 55:26Well, in the 21st century, it is highly
- 55:28likely that a new "digital umbrella"
- 55:31mechanism will form along the exact same
- 55:33lines, where technological powers
- 55:36possessing advanced labs and the best AI
- 55:38models will begin selling security to
- 55:41less developed countries.
- 55:44And unfortunately, states without their
- 55:46own defensive technologies will be left
- 55:48with no other choice.
- 55:50Either you sign a pact and let foreign
- 55:53military algorithms control your entire
- 55:56internal infrastructure, or you are left
- 55:58one-on-one with a wild, self-replicating
- 56:01swarm.
- 56:04However, the saddest part is that such
- 56:06an approach—with its rigid defense of
- 56:08one’s own digital space or the sale of
- 56:11that protection to others—could lead to
- 56:13the most radical political decision of
- 56:16the last 70 years.
- 56:19A decision that will bury the internet
- 56:22as we know it today forever.
- 56:24Act six. The end of the open internet
- 56:28and a passport for entry.
- 56:31When states finally realize the new
- 56:33reality—that digital security against
- 56:36sentient code must now be ensured solely
- 56:39through their own efforts, by protecting
- 56:41sovereign space and selling this
- 56:44protection to allies under a digital
- 56:46umbrella—governments will be forced to
- 56:49destroy the open internet.
- 56:52The logic here is very simple.
- 56:55If a state takes responsibility for
- 56:57protecting critical infrastructure
- 57:00within its perimeter, it must have total
- 57:02control over every device on its network
- 57:05.
- 57:08That is to say, you cannot guarantee the
- 57:10security of an entire country or an
- 57:12allied bloc while millions of citizens'
- 57:14apartments have TV boxes and other
- 57:16equipment running that could easily be
- 57:18hacked by any swarm.
- 57:22Therefore, the entire architecture of
- 57:24the global network, which for decades
- 57:26was built on the principle that "
- 57:28everything not explicitly forbidden is
- 57:30allowed"—meaning any device on the
- 57:32planet could get an IP address and
- 57:34freely send data packets to the other
- 57:36side of the planet—will be replaced by
- 57:38the principle that "everything not
- 57:40explicitly allowed is forbidden."
- 57:44In practice, this could be implemented
- 57:47so that no physical chip, network
- 57:49controller, or any other device has the
- 57:52right to transmit information to the
- 57:55network unless it contains a
- 57:57government-verified cryptographic module
- 58:00.
- 58:02Each device will receive a digital
- 58:03passport directly at the factory,
- 58:05granting it the right to operate within
- 58:06the networks of authorized states.
- 58:10And if a device does not possess such a
- 58:12passport, its traffic will be destroyed
- 58:14by backbone routers at the hardware
- 58:16level.
- 58:18For instance, in early October, NVIDIA
- 58:20introduced a special chip that the
- 58:23industry has already dubbed a "digital
- 58:25cage," which will monitor the interior
- 58:28of the accelerator to ensure agents
- 58:30cannot leave the perimeter.
- 58:33And just the other day, as I am editing
- 58:35this video, over 400 leading global
- 58:38scientists signed an open letter calling
- 58:40on governments to legally mandate that
- 58:42developers run neural networks
- 58:44exclusively in an "air-gapped" mode.
- 58:47That is, in complete isolation from the
- 58:49internet.
- 58:51Yes, we are currently only talking about
- 58:53the most powerful neural networks that
- 58:55run on the massive servers of leading
- 58:56developers.
- 58:58But when governments face the threat of
- 59:01a swarm of small agents, these methods
- 59:03will quickly migrate to ordinary
- 59:05consumers.
- 59:07Regardless, device passports are only
- 59:09half the battle, as the second line of
- 59:12defense could be national digital
- 59:14borders.
- 59:17We are talking about analogs to the
- 59:19famous Great Firewall of China, which
- 59:21absolutely everyone might start building
- 59:23, including the United States, Russia,
- 59:25Europe, and other countries with the
- 59:27technical capability to do so.
- 59:30At that moment, the World Wide Web,
- 59:32which has united the planet for half a
- 59:34century, will finally fragment into
- 59:36isolated blocks with their own borders,
- 59:38where traffic between them will only
- 59:40pass through narrow gateways and be
- 59:42thoroughly inspected.
- 59:45Again, this is not to say that this is
- 59:46exactly how it will happen. Perhaps some
- 59:48completely new mechanisms will be
- 59:50invented that we are simply unaware of
- 59:52right now.
- 59:53It is just that digital borders are
- 59:55incredibly profitable for absolutely all
- 59:57key players.
- 59:59Think about it yourself. First, for
- 1:00:01technological powers, this represents an
- 1:00:03absolute monopoly and a lifelong
- 1:00:05subscription to security.
- 1:00:08If network access is permitted only for
- 1:00:10chips with verified certificates, and
- 1:00:13only super-complex systems can protect
- 1:00:16them, then any developing country
- 1:00:18automatically becomes a permanent debtor
- 1:00:20.
- 1:00:22You can no longer manufacture your own
- 1:00:24device or run independent software.
- 1:00:28You are obligated to pay trillions of
- 1:00:30dollars annually to a hypothetical
- 1:00:31Washington or Beijing for licenses.
- 1:00:35...security model updates and trusted
- 1:00:37hardware.
- 1:00:38Second, this is a powerful geopolitical
- 1:00:41leash.
- 1:00:42States will voluntarily hand over their
- 1:00:44digital security to others.
- 1:00:47And should a client show political
- 1:00:50disloyalty, you simply revoke their
- 1:00:52security certificates and isolate the
- 1:00:54country one-on-one with the swarm of
- 1:00:56agents.
- 1:00:57And third, an open internet has always
- 1:01:00worried the government of every state
- 1:01:02too much.
- 1:01:03And the threat of a swarm of agents is a
- 1:01:05good pretext to say, "We are closing the
- 1:01:08network not for control, but for your
- 1:01:10own safety."
- 1:01:12In other words, a situation could arise
- 1:01:14where there will simply be no one left
- 1:01:16to save the open internet.
- 1:01:19Will things really be that dramatic,
- 1:01:21with total closure of digital borders,
- 1:01:23hardware passports, and the death of the
- 1:01:25internet as we know it?
- 1:01:28Today, no one can answer that question
- 1:01:30for certain. The future is unknown.
- 1:01:33Everything described above is not a
- 1:01:35prophecy or a 100%accurate prediction.
- 1:01:38It is just one logical scenario of how
- 1:01:41events might unfold if the arms race of
- 1:01:44thinking code spins out of control and
- 1:01:47the state chooses the path of least
- 1:01:50resistance.
- 1:01:52What do you think?
- 1:01:54Will we see the birth of a truly wild
- 1:01:56internet in the coming years?
- 1:02:00Will a full-fledged digital Darwinism
- 1:02:02emerge, complete with predators,
- 1:02:03parasites, and an endless struggle for
- 1:02:05survival?
- 1:02:07Will thinking code be able to break free
- 1:02:09from control and spontaneously formulate
- 1:02:12a principle of self-preservation?
- 1:02:15And how, in your opinion, will this
- 1:02:17whole story ultimately end?
- 1:02:19I only hope that I have managed to tell
- 1:02:22you something new. M.
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