🦖역대급 폭락도 살아남은 미키김의 6가지 투자원칙 (상승장 오기 전에 기억해두자!) — Transcript

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1. 0:00Yes.
2. 0:00The stock market has plummeted
3. 0:01significantly lately, hasn't it? But
4. 0:03Miki, you didn't seem very stressed,
5. 0:06and even in our comments, people noted
6. 0:08how cheerful you looked. I'll show you
7. 0:11the data on why that is. June 19th was
8. 0:14the day KOSPI hit its peak. On June
9. 0:1719th, KOSPI climbed to 9,300. As you
10. 0:20know, I am quite serious about
11. 0:22calculating my assets. Since I happened
12. 0:25to calculate my assets on June 19th, I
13. 0:27know the exact value of my investment
14. 0:29portfolio on that day. However, the
15. 0:33market plummeted after that day, and as
16. 0:36of the market close on August 3rd,
17. 0:38KOSPI had dropped 31%from June 19th,
18. 0:40and SK Hynix fell by 43%. It was a drop
19. 0:43on par with the 1997 Asian financial
20. 0:45crisis and the 2008 global financial
21. 0:47crisis. It was a massive decline. But
22. 0:49during the same period, my portfolio
23. 0:51only dropped 4%from its peak. My
24. 0:54cumulative return is still high, and
25. 0:56since it had risen so much, it was a
26. 0:58solid defense during this historic
27. 1:00crash, so there was no need to feel
28. 1:02stressed in July. Investing is a game
29. 1:05where defense is just as important as
30. 1:07offense.
31. 1:08True, the market was so good that we
32. 1:10mostly talked about offense, but did
33. 1:12you do anything special for defense? I
34. 1:14didn't take any special emergency
35. 1:16measures; I just stuck to my usual
36. 1:18investment principles. I think this
37. 1:20crash clearly showed why that is
38. 1:22important. If you are investing, you
39. 1:24must realize that the market is a very
40. 1:26strange place. The market is volatile
41. 1:30and often behaves irrationally, so I
42. 1:32believe that experiencing this historic
43. 1:35crash should help us become wiser
44. 1:37investors by reflecting on what
45. 1:39investment principles we should
46. 1:41remember, rather than just thinking, "
47. 1:44I'm ruined." The stock market is a
48. 1:47place that constantly fluctuates, and
49. 1:48what makes investing difficult is that
50. 1:50these fluctuations are only obvious in
51. 1:52hindsight and are hard to predict in
52. 1:53advance. That’s why even stock market
53. 1:56experts can only offer forced
54. 1:57explanations after the fact for why
55. 1:58prices rose or fell, but they cannot
56. 2:00predict them beforehand. If you watch
57. 2:02morning stock shows these days, they
58. 2:04explain the previous day's prices well,
59. 2:06but they have no idea what will happen
60. 2:08to the stock price that very day. Of
61. 2:10course, some people get it right, but
62. 2:12if you say it will rise. Or if you say
63. 2:14it will fall, someone is bound to be
64. 2:16right. The problem is that there is no
65. 2:19expert who gets it right consistently.
66. 2:21If you choose either "up" or "down,"
67. 2:22you have a 50%chance.
68. 2:24It’s the same as flipping a coin.
69. 2:28Even though they say Michael Burry
70. 2:29warned about this semiconductor crash,
71. 2:31he is the type of person who always
72. 2:33warns that stocks will plummet.
73. 2:35Conversely, there are also experts who
74. 2:37consistently claim that stock prices
75. 2:38will do well, and whenever they are
76. 2:40interviewed, they just say we are in
77. 2:42the early stages of an AI revolution.
78. 2:44They just keep repeating things like
79. 2:45that. So, while financial experts
80. 2:49certainly know more, I don't think that
81. 2:52makes them better at investing. We
82. 2:55aren't stock market experts, are we? We
83. 2:57are people investing our own precious
84. 2:59money. In that case, there is only one
85. 3:02thing we can accurately predict. The
86. 3:04stock market will continue to fluctuate
87. 3:06in ways I cannot predict in advance.
88. 3:09Furthermore, as we experienced this
89. 3:11time, we saw those terrifying moments
90. 3:13where stocks fell further even when we
91. 3:15thought they had hit bottom. It’s
92. 3:17easier said than done not to panic and
93. 3:20to look at the big picture, but looking
94. 3:22back at historical market crashes, you
95. 3:25don't think "I was ruined then," but
96. 3:27rather "I should have bought then." At
97. 3:30least in developed markets, looking
98. 3:31back at historical crashes, they were
99. 3:33tremendous buying opportunities. So,
100. 3:35when the market crashes, if there is a
101. 3:37rational reason to sell, cutting your
102. 3:39losses is the right move, but I truly
103. 3:41believe panic selling out of fear is
104. 3:43the wrong choice. Many people who panic
105. 3:46sell and leave the market end up saying
106. 3:48"this is why I don't do stocks" and
107. 3:50fail to return. Then, they miss the
108. 3:52opportunity for their assets to grow
109. 3:55when the bull market eventually returns
110. 3:57. Even so. Thinking, "Oh, then I
111. 4:00shouldn't panic, I'll just buy during a
112. 4:02dip and sell during a rally," isn't
113. 4:04realistic, because how would you know
114. 4:05when those start? You only know those
115. 4:08things in hindsight. We don't know when
116. 4:10a bear market will end and rise, or if
117. 4:12it will fall further. Nobody knows when
118. 4:15this current downturn will end either.
119. 4:17Admitting that it will eventually rise
120. 4:19even if it's falling now is really
121. 4:21tough.
122. 4:21Exactly. When it's falling, it feels
123. 4:23like it will keep falling forever.
124. 4:25That's why this crash clearly shows
125. 4:27that there is no better investment than
126. 4:28consistent, periodic investing that
127. 4:30spreads out time. Because, as we often
128. 4:33say, we are investing by spreading out
129. 4:35our time systematically, without being
130. 4:37shaken by market fluctuations. I ran a
131. 4:39simulation on this; let's say you
132. 4:41invested a set amount on a fixed day
133. 4:43every month for the last year. Assuming
134. 4:46you bought Hynix on the 1st of every
135. 4:49month from August 1st of last year to
136. 4:51July 1st of this year, and for the sake
137. 4:53of an extreme calculation, let's base
138. 4:55it on July 28th, when Hynix had fallen
139. 4:57by half from its peak before the big
140. 4:59jump last Friday. At least as of now,
141. 5:03that was the bottom of this market
142. 5:05crash. Of course, we don't know what
143. 5:07will happen next.
144. 5:08Or even what will happen tomorrow.
145. 5:09So, the return rate as of July 28th for
146. 5:12this person who invested periodically
147. 5:14for a year is 2.6 times.
148. 5:16It’s definitely not a failure. If
149. 5:18they had done this for the past two
150. 5:20years, their return rate would be 5.4
151. 5:21times. This is the power of time and
152. 5:23compounding that we often talk about.
153. 5:25The investment we should pursue is to
154. 5:28utilize this power. I also invested in
155. 5:30Hynix by spreading out my time starting
156. 5:32from the 100,000 won range, so while my
157. 5:34current return rate has naturally
158. 5:35dropped compared to the peak, looking
159. 5:37at my cumulative returns, I can still
160. 5:38have a carefree expression during these
161. 5:40times. Investing is not a game of
162. 5:42hitting the absolute peak, but a game
163. 5:44of reaping the results of a larger
164. 5:46trend. However, those who suffered
165. 5:48significantly this time are the ones
166. 5:50who went in heavily at the peak. You
167. 5:52see a lot of stories like, "I put my
168. 5:53housing deposit money into Hynix,"
169. 5:55right? But no one can predict the peak
170. 5:57in advance. However, the action of
171. 6:00going in heavily all at once is within
172. 6:02the realm of actions I can control. I
173. 6:06recently heard that to invest properly,
174. 6:08you need to put in an amount that keeps
175. 6:10you awake at night, but I completely
176. 6:11disagree. Why would I go "all-in" on
177. 6:14something with my precious money to the
178. 6:15point where I can't sleep? What am I
179. 6:17trusting to make such an investment?
180. 6:18Investing isn't about putting a large
181. 6:20sum somewhere and saying, "Alright,
182. 6:22ready, set, go!" That’s betting on a
183. 6:24specific stock, which isn't wise
184. 6:26investing. If I invest by spreading out
185. 6:28my time, even if I entered at the peak,
186. 6:30I would also enter at the cheap price
187. 6:32after a crash. Then, when the stock
188. 6:34price recovers, I have an opportunity
189. 6:36for my assets to recover as well. And
190. 6:38looking back, that’s when I actually
191. 6:40made money. Of course, that’s under
192. 6:42the assumption that the stock has
193. 6:43strong fundamentals. For a stock that
194. 6:45is judged to continue to deteriorate,
195. 6:46you shouldn't be spreading out your
196. 6:48time, but rather getting out quickly.
197. 6:50Also, this market crash showed not only
198. 6:52the importance of time-diversified
199. 6:54investing but also the importance of
200. 6:56sector-diversified investing very
201. 6:57clearly. Since this crash was centered
202. 7:00around memory semiconductors, the
203. 7:01impact was greater on the Korean market
204. 7:02, where the proportion of memory
205. 7:04semiconductors is high. Because half of
206. 7:06the KOSPI is Samsung Electronics and
207. 7:07Hynix, if the stock prices of these two
208. 7:09fall significantly, they drag the
209. 7:11entire index down. But it doesn't end
210. 7:13there; there are many ETFs that track
211. 7:16the KOSPI. The price of those ETFs
212. 7:19falls along with the index, and when
213. 7:21those index ETFs fall due to the drop
214. 7:24in Samsung Electronics and Hynix, ETF
215. 7:27managers have to sell other stocks
216. 7:29included in that index according to
217. 7:32their proportions. On top of that, with
218. 7:35investment sentiment shrinking
219. 7:37significantly, even stocks unrelated to
220. 7:38semiconductors all fell together. So,
221. 7:41even if our company isn't related to
222. 7:43semiconductors, ETF managers are forced
223. 7:45to sell our stock, which causes our
224. 7:47stock price to drop as well. That’s
225. 7:49the right way to understand it, right?
226. 7:50Yes. But when looking at the S&P 500
227. 7:52during July, when the semiconductor
228. 7:54KOSPI was in chaos, it just stayed flat
229. 7:56without much fluctuation. Why are you
230. 7:57crying? It’s kind of like this
231. 7:58feeling. Looking at the S&P 500,
232. 8:01semiconductors in the U.S. obviously
233. 8:02fell, but other industries just went
234. 8:04their own way. Even looking at big tech
235. 8:08, in July, Microsoft rose 25%, Amazon
236. 8:1014%, and Apple 7%. In my own portfolio,
237. 8:13when semiconductors were surging, these
238. 8:15stocks weren't moving, but when
239. 8:16semiconductors crashed this time, they
240. 8:18protected my portfolio. This is the
241. 8:20power of diversification. So, if your
242. 8:22portfolio was full of Korean stocks,
243. 8:24the last month must have been really
244. 8:27tough, but if you had a
245. 8:28well-diversified portfolio with the S&P
246. 8:30500 and big tech, the impact this time
247. 8:33would have been limited. I’m the one
248. 8:35who has been saying for years that you
249. 8:37should have the S&P 500 as a core part
250. 8:40of your portfolio.
251. 8:42Ah, so I followed your advice, Mickey,
252. 8:44and invested in a diversified way, and
253. 8:46my highest return was 85%. And it’s
254. 8:48the S&P 500 that has kept me in the
255. 8:50green even now. The power of
256. 8:52diversification. That’s the point. So
257. 8:54, as I said before, investing isn't
258. 8:56about choosing something that keeps you
259. 8:58up at night, but rather creating a
260. 9:00well-diversified portfolio that lets
261. 9:01you sleep soundly—that is what
262. 9:03investing is. But while experiencing
263. 9:05this market crash, a thought I can't
264. 9:07help but have is, "I should have sold
265. 9:08back then." I thought it was up too
266. 9:10much back then, but everyone had that
267. 9:12thought, right? "I should have sold
268. 9:13when it was at 3 million won." But in
269. 9:15investing, you really must avoid the
270. 9:16delusion that you know where the peak
271. 9:18is. It’s meaningless, and you can
272. 9:20never know. So the realistic strategy I
273. 9:23can use is rebalancing, where if
274. 9:24something rises a lot and its weight in
275. 9:26my portfolio becomes too large, I sell
276. 9:28a little bit to realize profits and
277. 9:30adjust the weight. I also keep
278. 9:32regretting that I should have done some
279. 9:34rebalancing when Hynix rose so much
280. 9:36this time. But when stock prices are
281. 9:39skyrocketing like they were this May,
282. 9:40it is truly difficult to rebalance.
283. 9:43When the KOSPI hit 3,000, many people,
284. 9:45including myself, all thought it would
285. 9:47hit 4,000 soon. It seems the psychology
286. 9:50that makes us think it will rise more
287. 9:52when it's rising, and fall more when
288. 9:54it's falling, is truly powerful.
289. 9:57Investing, despite all the fundamentals
290. 9:59and earnings we like, eventually feels
291. 10:01like a psychological game. And a
292. 10:03psychological game that is really hard
293. 10:05to win is leveraged investing. Recently
294. 10:08, leveraged ETFs are often mentioned as
295. 10:10one of the reasons for the crazy
296. 10:11volatility in the Korean market.
297. 10:13Because they have to follow double the
298. 10:15daily volatility every day, ETF
299. 10:16managers have to buy when it rises and
300. 10:18sell more when it falls. So, it
301. 10:20actually acts as an amplifier for stock
302. 10:22price fluctuations. Since they bought
303. 10:25so much, when I looked at the ranking
304. 10:27of ETFs that Korean retail investors
305. 10:29bought the most in July, 1st and 4th
306. 10:31were Hynix leverage, 2nd was KOSPI
307. 10:32leverage, 3rd was KOSDAQ leverage, and
308. 10:347th was Samsung Electronics leverage.
309. 10:37This was shown extremely clearly last
310. 10:38Friday, July 31st, when Samsung
311. 10:40Electronics and Hynix rose by nearly 30
312. 10:42%, and the KOSPI jumped a whopping
313. 10:441,000 points, marking the biggest gain
314. 10:45in the history of the Korean stock
315. 10:47market. Looking at the ETF sales
316. 10:49ranking that day, 1st place was KOSPI
317. 10:51leverage. Gaining double when it rises.
318. 10:533rd place was KOSPI inverse, which
319. 10:55makes money when it falls. 4th place
320. 10:56was KOSPI inverse 2x, which makes
321. 10:58double when it falls. 5th place was
322. 11:00Hynix leverage. 7th place was Hynix
323. 11:02inverse 2x. 8th place was KOSDAQ
324. 11:03leverage. 9th place was Samsung
325. 11:05Electronics leverage. Out of the top
326. 11:06ten, except for 2nd and 10th, they are
327. 11:08all leverage or inverse products.
328. 11:09Exactly.
329. 11:11Seeing people make such risky
330. 11:12investments even after experiencing
331. 11:14that chaos, I think this is a serious
332. 11:16problem. Single-stock leverage ETFs in
333. 11:19Korea were launched at the end of May.
334. 11:22From the end of May to the end of July,
335. 11:25Hynix's stock price dropped by roughly
336. 11:2725%. But during the same period, the
337. 11:30Hynix leverage ETF plummeted by 61%.
338. 11:33Oh my. If it had simply fallen by
339. 11:36double, it should have been a 50%drop,
340. 11:38but since leverage ETFs move at double
341. 11:40the daily volatility, the gap widens
342. 11:42over time, leading to even larger
343. 11:44losses. We explained this in detail in
344. 11:48our ETF video.
345. 11:49In any case, since the stock price fell
346. 11:51, those who bought the inverse 2x,
347. 11:52which makes double when it falls, must
348. 11:54have made money, right? This perfectly
349. 11:57illustrates why leverage is dangerous;
350. 11:59you'd naturally think that since Hynix
351. 12:02fell 25%over the same period, the
352. 12:04inverse 2x holders would have made a
353. 12:06profit, but the inverse 2x ETF actually
354. 12:08dropped 52%, meaning the loss is more
355. 12:11than double the actual stock price
356. 12:13decline. Of course, this assumes
357. 12:17holding the ETF for two months, and
358. 12:18there are many more people who buy
359. 12:20leverage or inverse products for
360. 12:22short-term, quick-in-and-out trades.
361. 12:25Still, looking at this data, the answer
362. 12:27is clear for our investors who are
363. 12:29investing their precious money. Let's
364. 12:31not touch these things. Let's stick to
365. 12:33healthy index investing. So, if you
366. 12:36have an experience that makes you want
367. 12:38to laugh in disbelief, you might just
368. 12:39throw everything away and leave, but as
369. 12:42I said before, you'll miss out on the
370. 12:43chance to grow your assets through time
371. 12:46and the power of compound interest
372. 12:47forever. Especially if you started
373. 12:51investing recently, and if you started
374. 12:53mainly in the domestic market, it's so
375. 12:55easy to think, "What kind of place is
376. 12:57this?" and just walk away. But looking
377. 13:00back on my long experience in investing
378. 13:02, the money I consistently put into the
379. 13:05market periodically after such a crash
380. 13:06always brought the biggest returns in
381. 13:08the long run. One of the biggest
382. 13:11factors in growing my assets was that I
383. 13:14started earning real money when I
384. 13:17joined Google in 2008. The market
385. 13:19crashed in 2008 due to the financial
386. 13:21crisis. The money I consistently put
387. 13:23into the market from then on returned
388. 13:26quite a large profit. Crashes happen
389. 13:29fast, but recovery takes a long time.
390. 13:33For a market that has dropped 50%to
391. 13:34recover, it doesn't need to rise by 50%
392. 13:36, but by 100%. This clearly shows why
393. 13:39patience is so important when investing
394. 13:42. The Odyssey movie is coming out this
395. 13:45week, and its prequel, The Iliad, is
396. 13:47about heroes winning the Trojan War. If
397. 13:51you look at The Iliad, Achilles wins
398. 13:52the fight against Hector and drags his
399. 13:54body around with a chariot. That
400. 13:57represents our bull market. In a bull
401. 13:59market, we all feel like Brad Pitt. But
402. 14:02The Odyssey is about the difficult 10-
403. 14:04year journey back home after the Trojan
404. 14:06War. I thought this represents the
405. 14:09hardship of a bear market. Meeting all
406. 14:12kinds of monsters, being tempted by
407. 14:15beautiful nymphs, losing all your crew
408. 14:17and spoils, and becoming tattered—
409. 14:20that feels like the fear, the urge to
410. 14:22panic sell, or the temptation to just
411. 14:25forget everything that we experience in
412. 14:28a bear market. But Odysseus overcomes
413. 14:31all these difficulties and temptations
414. 14:33and eventually returns home. It's just
415. 14:36like how the market eventually trends
416. 14:38upward. Is this too far-fetched? So, as
417. 14:44we often say, I believe the way to
418. 14:46truly become rich is to keep track of
419. 14:49your income and expenses, invest
420. 14:51steadily over time, not bet on one side
421. 14:54, but diversify with index funds and
422. 14:57good stocks, and let your precious
423. 14:59money grow steadily through the power
424. 15:02of time and compounding while you sleep
425. 15:05peacefully.
426. 15:07But, this is a bit out of the blue,
427. 15:08what's with this dinosaur head? The
428. 15:09fear of a crashing market. Why? They
429. 15:13say one of the things the super-rich
430. 15:14are buying a lot of these days is
431. 15:16dinosaur fossils. Recently, a
432. 15:18Tyrannosaurus rex fossil named "Gusto"
433. 15:20was sold at an auction for about 75
434. 15:22billion won, and to an anonymous buyer
435. 15:25at that. Looking at this, I thought,
436. 15:26this is truly the pinnacle of luxury
437. 15:28consumption. First, because you have
438. 15:29absolutely no use for it. What are you
439. 15:30going to do with it once you buy it?
440. 15:31Second, they bought it anonymously.
441. 15:33That means they can't even show it off.
442. 15:35Third, it's an item that's extremely
443. 15:37difficult to store and maintain. After
444. 15:40seeing that news, since I really love
445. 15:42dinosaurs, I thought, "I want to buy a
446. 15:44dinosaur fossil, too," so I naturally
447. 15:46ordered a fake one online. I put it in
448. 15:48my study, and the atmosphere is great.
449. 15:50Didn't you get in trouble for it? Oh.
450. 15:52I bought it without telling my wife. I
451. 15:55think we shared a lot of truly helpful
452. 15:57and practical advice again today. This
453. 15:59beer is really delicious today.
454. 16:01Ah, this is from a Korean brewery
455. 16:02called Original Beer Company, and they
456. 16:04sent me this one with an engraving that
457. 16:06says, "Original Beer Company supports
458. 16:08Mickey P." The past two months have
459. 16:10been a really tough time for us
460. 16:11investors. But stock investing involves
461. 16:15going through these periods, and these
462. 16:17periods are something that the stock
463. 16:19market goes through periodically. And I
464. 16:22think times like these really show why
465. 16:24it’s so important to have investment
466. 16:25principles, just like we discussed
467. 16:27today. So, during times like this,
468. 16:30let's, as wise investors, take a moment
469. 16:32to organize our investment principles
470. 16:34and wait for the bull market that will
471. 16:36surely return someday. We don't know
472. 16:38when it will come. When is it coming?
473. 16:41Then, I will return with more fun and
474. 16:43informative content next time. Thank
475. 16:45you.