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【独身多数の未来】結婚しない人が増える?配偶者なし5割社会も?…なぜ結婚したいのにできない?老後不安も議論|アベプラ — Transcript

by ABEMA Prime #アベプラ【公式】 · 4,375 words · 765 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:03A certain Note post is now the talk of
  2. 0:05the town. Its content discusses a
  3. 0:10future where being single is the
  4. 0:12majority. It introduces data released
  5. 0:17by government agencies. Estimates show
  6. 0:21that in 2040, the percentage of men who
  7. 0:24have never married by age 50 will be
  8. 0:2630.4%. The author questions the
  9. 0:34projection that women will peak at 22.2
  10. 0:36%and then decline, using various
  11. 0:38materials to explore a future where
  12. 0:40over half the population is single. And
  13. 0:49it argues that the Showa-era society,
  14. 0:51where almost everyone got married, was
  15. 0:53actually the exception. It has caused a
  16. 0:59huge stir on social media.
  17. 1:04I feel like society is progressing just
  18. 1:06as the Note describes. 1
  19. 1:10Let's build up assets and maintain our
  20. 1:12health for old age.
  21. 1:16So we must provide incentives for
  22. 1:17marriage to prevent this. Regarding
  23. 1:22this decline in marriage, the
  24. 1:23government and local authorities are
  25. 1:25taking measures from the perspective of
  26. 1:27the falling birthrate.
  27. 1:34We want to increase the take-home pay
  28. 1:35of the younger generation so that those
  29. 1:37who want to get married or have
  30. 1:38children don't have to give up on those
  31. 1:40dreams. On August 8th of Reiwa 8, with
  32. 1:48three eights in a row, we are naming it
  33. 1:50"Honey Marriage Day" and will hold the
  34. 1:52Tokyo Marriage Support Festa. The Tokyo
  35. 2:00Metropolitan Government is heavily
  36. 2:02promoting marriage support, such as
  37. 2:03through events and operating matching
  38. 2:05apps, but...
  39. 2:10Will the day truly arrive when, as the
  40. 2:12viral Note suggests, over half the
  41. 2:14population is single? If that happens,
  42. 2:20we will consider how individual lives
  43. 2:22and society might change.
  44. 2:26Yes. Mr. Allen, regarding the fact that
  45. 2:30more people are not marrying lately, I
  46. 2:32think this is a trend seen all over the
  47. 2:34world.
  48. 2:36Especially in developed countries,
  49. 2:37right?
  50. 2:38Yeah. I mean, in the past, people
  51. 2:42placed more importance on marriage, and
  52. 2:44I think there was less entertainment,
  53. 2:45but today, we have so many choices and
  54. 2:47are flooded with fun things to do.
  55. 2:52Young people will likely realize that
  56. 2:54marriage isn't everything.
  57. 2:56Yeah. Yeah.
  58. 2:57Also, I think there are many people
  59. 2:59today who want to cherish their time
  60. 3:01alone or their free time.
  61. 3:02That is exactly right.
  62. 3:04Yeah.
  63. 3:04Yeah.
  64. 3:05I absolutely prefer being alone.
  65. 3:07Right.
  66. 3:08It's just not for me anymore. Being
  67. 3:10with someone else.
  68. 3:11Is that so? Is that so?
  69. 3:13Yes. I can't even stand one day. One
  70. 3:16day either. One
  71. 3:17day either.
  72. 3:18Yes. Even when I go on trips with
  73. 3:19friends, I always tell them I need a
  74. 3:21separate room and a separate bath.
  75. 3:22You don't share?
  76. 3:23I absolutely hate that. But you know,
  77. 3:27there are actually a lot of people like
  78. 3:29me. People who prefer to be alone, like
  79. 3:31sleeping alone.
  80. 3:31Yeah. Even with a partner?
  81. 3:33I don't have a partner, actually.
  82. 3:35Because I'm not interested.
  83. 3:37I get bored easily, so two hours is my
  84. 3:39limit.
  85. 3:40Even shorter than a day.
  86. 3:42Two hours is my limit, so
  87. 3:44two
  88. 3:44hours, right?
  89. 3:46In that case, I feel like it's tough to
  90. 3:48imagine marriage increasing in this day
  91. 3:50and age. Well, I get that. Yeah.
  92. 3:53Yeah. We've been sharing those personal
  93. 3:56feelings, but now let's introduce the
  94. 3:57guest for this segment.
  95. 3:59He is Professor Masahiro Yamada, a
  96. 4:01specialist in family sociology. Mr.
  97. 4:04Yamada, thank you for joining us.
  98. 4:06Ah, thank you for having me.
  99. 4:08Thank you.
  100. 4:09Let me reintroduce the article on Note
  101. 4:11that is currently buzzing, and here is
  102. 4:13an overview. It discusses the issue of
  103. 4:17Japan's high unmarried rate, suggesting
  104. 4:20we might be heading toward a society
  105. 4:22where the majority—over 50%—do not
  106. 4:24marry. Looking at the numbers is even
  107. 4:29more surprising: the percentage of
  108. 4:31people who have never been married by
  109. 4:33age 50. In 1970, it was 1.7%for men and
  110. 4:393.3%for women, compared to 2020.
  111. 4:43It reached 28.3%for men and, as you can
  112. 4:47see, 17.8%for women. Regarding the
  113. 4:52point that this will become the
  114. 4:53majority, Mr. Yamada, what are your
  115. 4:55thoughts?
  116. 4:58Well, while it will increase somewhat
  117. 5:01from here, I personally don't think it
  118. 5:03will actually reach 50%. However, it
  119. 5:10will likely reach around 30 to 35%for
  120. 5:13men and 20 to 25%for women, but if you
  121. 5:15look at it in terms of being "single,"
  122. 5:18since one in three couples now divorce,
  123. 5:21I believe a society where 50%of people
  124. 5:23have no spouse will arrive soon.
  125. 5:29Yeah.
  126. 5:29I see.
  127. 5:30I see.
  128. 5:31So it leads to that, doesn't it?
  129. 5:33Yamada-san, one more question: the
  130. 5:35article about being single really blew
  131. 5:37up. Do you think it resonated because
  132. 5:40people feel the same way, or because
  133. 5:42they're worried about the situation?
  134. 5:45Why do you think it struck such a chord
  135. 5:47?
  136. 5:47Well, let’s see. The truth is, most
  137. 5:51people actually do want to get married
  138. 5:53if you look at the surveys. Really?
  139. 5:57Oh, is that so? And recently, a lot of
  140. 6:02young people have started thinking
  141. 6:03about their old age, too.
  142. 6:07The fear of ending up alone in old age
  143. 6:09is very real. They have colleagues now,
  144. 6:16or their parents are still around, but
  145. 6:18they worry about being isolated once
  146. 6:20their parents are gone or they retire,
  147. 6:22which is why we’re seeing more cases
  148. 6:24of "lonely deaths." That anxiety is
  149. 6:31spreading. I believe that’s why
  150. 6:34articles like this one garner so much
  151. 6:36interest. I see.
  152. 6:39So, surveys show they want to marry,
  153. 6:41but they’re also worried about old
  154. 6:43age. If they want to, why aren't they
  155. 6:47marrying? Do we know why?
  156. 6:51Well, if you're going to get married,
  157. 6:53you want financial stability, right?
  158. 6:57Right.
  159. 6:57Yeah. Exactly. Especially in this day
  160. 7:00and age.
  161. 7:00No matter...
  162. 7:01Yeah.
  163. 7:03No matter how much you say you want to
  164. 7:04marry, it’s not like just anyone will
  165. 7:06do. Exactly.
  166. 7:09Relationships matter, so you at least
  167. 7:11need to like the person, right? Yeah.
  168. 7:14Uh-huh.
  169. 7:14Yeah. But now I’m starting to get
  170. 7:16worried.
  171. 7:17Maybe I have to get married.
  172. 7:19No, no, I’m just saying I’m
  173. 7:20starting to feel that way. My own old
  174. 7:22age...
  175. 7:22Who am I even going to marry?
  176. 7:24What should I do? Thinking about it
  177. 7:26like that, it’s true.
  178. 7:29Life is so much fun right now, but what
  179. 7:31happens when I'm 60 or 70 and can't
  180. 7:33work or stay active like I used to?
  181. 7:37Yeah.
  182. 7:38If you don't have kids, who’s going
  183. 7:40to take care of you?
  184. 7:41By then, we’ll probably have physical
  185. 7:43AI or something, so it’ll be fine.
  186. 7:45Oh, I guess that’s okay then.
  187. 7:48Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait!
  188. 7:51Never mind! Wait, haven't you really
  189. 7:54thought about it until now? About the
  190. 7:56two of you growing old together and
  191. 7:57such.
  192. 7:58Yeah.
  193. 7:58I mean, of course, I’ve been thinking
  194. 8:00about the financial side of things
  195. 8:02recently, but...
  196. 8:02That’s true.
  197. 8:03Yeah.
  198. 8:05I do hear that people miss having
  199. 8:07someone to do things with every day.
  200. 8:09And...
  201. 8:10When you get to that age, for me right
  202. 8:12now, I can take care of my parents, but
  203. 8:14there are no children to take care of
  204. 8:16me, right?
  205. 8:17Yeah.
  206. 8:18Well, but there’s AI, you know.
  207. 8:20That’s how it’ll be. Exactly. Isn't
  208. 8:23that scary?
  209. 8:25By the way, Mr. Allen, I believe you
  210. 8:26mentioned that you wouldn't get married
  211. 8:28. What was the reason for that? Why say
  212. 8:33you won't marry? Well, honestly,
  213. 8:35frankly speaking, it’s just not
  214. 8:37appealing, right? You lose your freedom
  215. 8:39.
  216. 8:39Yeah.
  217. 8:39I prefer freedom.
  218. 8:40That’s the first reason. Freedom.
  219. 8:42But, like, when something happens to
  220. 8:44you, or how should I put it...Well, for
  221. 8:46instance, wouldn't it be nice to have
  222. 8:48someone you can always reach out to
  223. 8:50when you’re feeling negative? Also,
  224. 8:52when you go home, or when you get sick,
  225. 8:54for example.
  226. 8:55Right. That’s scary, isn't it?
  227. 8:58I have a family, and once you get used
  228. 8:59to your wife and kids being at home,
  229. 9:01when they go back to visit their
  230. 9:03parents during the Obon holidays and
  231. 9:05I’m alone for about ten days, I’m
  232. 9:06just bored out of my mind.
  233. 9:09Yeah.
  234. 9:10Wow.
  235. 9:10I don’t even want to go home anymore,
  236. 9:12because I know I’ll just be alone
  237. 9:13anyway.
  238. 9:14Yeah. So I truly felt that humans are
  239. 9:17meant to live in groups, but then again
  240. 9:19, that’s because you’re used to
  241. 9:21being with your family.
  242. 9:23I see, I’ve been living as a lone
  243. 9:26wolf for so long, especially for the
  244. 9:28last 13 or 14 years, that it’s become
  245. 9:30too comfortable. So, if I were to get
  246. 9:34sick and be hospitalized, I wonder who
  247. 9:36I would even contact.
  248. 9:38Like that.
  249. 9:39Yeah, getting sick...
  250. 9:42What should I do? It’s scary when you
  251. 9:45actually think about it, even if
  252. 9:47you’re single.
  253. 9:48Oh, how about you, Mr. Abe?
  254. 9:50Well, I think we tend to pack a little
  255. 9:52too much into the institution of
  256. 9:53marriage, don’t you think?
  257. 9:55I mean, when we talk about this anxiety
  258. 9:57about old age, we have to remember that
  259. 9:59one in three couples gets divorced. You
  260. 10:04might say you're married right now, but
  261. 10:06there's no real guarantee that you'll
  262. 10:08still be married 40 or 50 years down
  263. 10:10the road.
  264. 10:14Since about 30 to 40 percent of couples
  265. 10:16split up—and that rate will likely
  266. 10:18keep rising—it doesn't really make
  267. 10:19sense to use marriage as a way to ease
  268. 10:21your anxieties about old age. Yeah.
  269. 10:25On the other hand, when we talk about
  270. 10:27supporting child-rearing, some people
  271. 10:28want that support but don't want the
  272. 10:30other restrictions, which makes you
  273. 10:32question if this system is even right.
  274. 10:35We’ve crammed everything from
  275. 10:37maintaining a household and raising
  276. 10:38children to alleviating fears about old
  277. 10:40age all into the institution of
  278. 10:42marriage, but that’s unsustainable.
  279. 10:45Unless we break these functions apart
  280. 10:46and create a new social system, it's
  281. 10:48unlikely we'll see birth rates increase
  282. 10:50. If you don't mind me asking, what are
  283. 10:54your personal views on marriage, or
  284. 10:56your thoughts on the future as we've
  285. 10:57been discussing?
  286. 10:59Well, I personally think the current
  287. 11:01system is irrational, so I don't really
  288. 11:03have any desire to actively use it.
  289. 11:04You mean the institution of marriage?
  290. 11:06Exactly.
  291. 11:07Oh, I see.
  292. 11:08It’s not that I’m against living
  293. 11:10with someone or raising children—
  294. 11:12those are wonderful things—but I am
  295. 11:13skeptical of the marriage system itself
  296. 11:15and wonder why we have to use that
  297. 11:17specific framework to do those things.
  298. 11:19I see what you mean. Do you have any
  299. 11:22thoughts on why the unmarried rate is
  300. 11:24so high?
  301. 11:25Well, that’s a difficult question. As
  302. 11:28Dr. Yamada mentioned earlier, if you
  303. 11:30look at the data, it's clear that men
  304. 11:32with low incomes are almost unable to
  305. 11:33get married. Exactly.
  306. 11:35Yeah.
  307. 11:36For men, it's extremely strongly
  308. 11:37correlated with annual income.
  309. 11:39Yeah.
  310. 11:39But for women, it’s not that strong.
  311. 11:42So what that means is, women generally
  312. 11:44want to marry someone with a higher
  313. 11:46income, but the number of men who can
  314. 11:48secure that high income within a
  315. 11:50certain timeframe—say, in their 20s,
  316. 11:5230s, or even 40 s—is actually not
  317. 11:54that large.
  318. 11:56Because of that situation,
  319. 11:59Well, the rate of unmarried men is
  320. 12:01rising.
  321. 12:01It’s easy to see why it’s
  322. 12:02accelerating more sharply.
  323. 12:03And this is quite interesting. Looking
  324. 12:05at the data earlier, can we see that
  325. 12:06graph again? The one showing 1.3%or so?
  326. 12:08Indeed. Yes. The unmarried rate. Yes.
  327. 12:11What’s fascinating is that in the 70s
  328. 12:13, it was actually the men who had half
  329. 12:15the rate of the women. It goes from a
  330. 12:18story where women had a higher lifelong
  331. 12:20unmarried rate to a clean reversal,
  332. 12:22doesn't it? Yeah.
  333. 12:24And now, after the war, there were
  334. 12:26fewer men...
  335. 12:26Ah, well, the numbers are from 1970. 70
  336. 12:29.
  337. 12:29Since they were 50 in 1970, they were
  338. 12:31born in 1920, so many had passed away
  339. 12:33in the war. The population base is
  340. 12:35different, so I think the background is
  341. 12:37different. Still, the way the curve
  342. 12:39rises is clearly different, which is
  343. 12:41quite strange.
  344. 12:44But I think the primary cause for this
  345. 12:45is high prices and stagnant wages.
  346. 12:51In fact, one of my own staff members is
  347. 12:53considering getting married or having
  348. 12:55children, but...
  349. 12:57They are someone who just can't take
  350. 12:59that step. Even in Tokyo, a small house
  351. 13:04costs 70, 80, or 90 million yen, and
  352. 13:07condos are like 100 million yen or more
  353. 13:10, right? Ordinary people can't buy them
  354. 13:13.
  355. 13:13Yeah.
  356. 13:13Yeah.
  357. 13:14With today's income levels in Japan, no
  358. 13:16one can.
  359. 13:17So, it's really just a small group of
  360. 13:19the wealthy buying everything up, and
  361. 13:21in that situation, even if a child is
  362. 13:23born, no matter how much money the
  363. 13:25social system provides, you just can't
  364. 13:27make a living. Yeah. I think there are
  365. 13:30tons of them.
  366. 13:31Well, you know, I live in Aichi
  367. 13:33Prefecture.
  368. 13:34Yes.
  369. 13:34And, first of all, there are many
  370. 13:36people living in Tokyo
  371. 13:37who don't even need to be there, and,
  372. 13:39well, simply put, everyone has become
  373. 13:41so childish. Because they’re always
  374. 13:44thinking about how they want to be more
  375. 13:45free,
  376. 13:46want to play more, and things like that
  377. 13:48, they never end up getting married.
  378. 13:49They can't grow up.
  379. 13:50Yes. By around 30, you should normally
  380. 13:52have played to your heart's content.
  381. 13:54Like, you've done it all. There's
  382. 13:56nothing left to do for your own sake.
  383. 13:58You should be moving toward wanting to
  384. 14:00do things for others or for your family
  385. 14:01, but everyone is too immature for that
  386. 14:03to happen. I think that's simply it.
  387. 14:06Oh no. That really hit home, and
  388. 14:10I'm starting to feel sick.
  389. 14:11I go shopping every day, eat and drink
  390. 14:13whatever I want every day, play every
  391. 14:15day, and sleep in—I do whatever I
  392. 14:16want. I'm over 30, though.
  393. 14:18Shopping every day...
  394. 14:19Normally, you'd get bored. Of that kind
  395. 14:21of thing.
  396. 14:21I'm hopeless. Seriously, I go to the
  397. 14:24department store before work, and even
  398. 14:26before I start. I went to the
  399. 14:27department store today, too.
  400. 14:29Yeah.
  401. 14:30I can't go on unless I'm shopping.
  402. 14:32Every single day, I want to live in the
  403. 14:34city more and more, and my desires just
  404. 14:36keep rising. I'm in trouble.
  405. 14:39Well, Allen, you're a pretty unique
  406. 14:41case. But for the average person who
  407. 14:44might come to Tokyo with dreams,
  408. 14:46the truth is, if things don't work out
  409. 14:48by the time you're around 30, you
  410. 14:49should just go back home and settle
  411. 14:51down. Ah. Because if you stay in Tokyo,
  412. 14:53Yeah.
  413. 14:54well, you can always find a way to hang
  414. 14:56out or kill time, so there's no sense
  415. 14:58of urgency.
  416. 14:58Yeah. That's right.
  417. 15:00Now, Yamada-san, having heard all this,
  418. 15:02how do you feel about it?
  419. 15:05Well, there's a lot to it, but I was
  420. 15:07just out in the countryside until a
  421. 15:08little while ago, conducting research
  422. 15:10on people looking for marriage partners
  423. 15:12,
  424. 15:14and when I talk to them, well, first of
  425. 15:16all, there are no women in the
  426. 15:18countryside.
  427. 15:20That's right. Well, since people
  428. 15:22gravitate toward cities, the ratio of
  429. 15:24women is extremely high.
  430. 15:26Yes.
  431. 15:27And so, it's quite difficult...
  432. 15:29There are actually a lot of people who
  433. 15:30want to get married but can't find a
  434. 15:32partner. Yeah.
  435. 15:33I see. That, that does happen. They
  436. 15:35can't meet anyone?
  437. 15:36Also...
  438. 15:36Yes, please go ahead.
  439. 15:38Also, well, there are many different
  440. 15:40forms of marriage. Even among my
  441. 15:42students, there are those who
  442. 15:43absolutely don't want to sleep in the
  443. 15:45same room...
  444. 15:46Yeah. ...and say they'd be fine with
  445. 15:48living apart or having separate
  446. 15:49bedrooms.
  447. 15:50Yeah. But even those people, well, even
  448. 15:54they would say that if something
  449. 15:55happens......they want someone to help
  450. 16:00them.
  451. 16:00Yeah.
  452. 16:01You could say that.
  453. 16:03Th-that's strange. It's like...
  454. 16:05It shouldn't be about someone to look
  455. 16:06after you in your old age or help you
  456. 16:08out; you should marry because you've
  457. 16:10fallen deeply in love with someone and
  458. 16:11want to be with them forever, don't
  459. 16:13want anyone else to take them, want to
  460. 16:15have their children, or want them to
  461. 16:16bear your children—those are the
  462. 16:18motivations for marriage, right? Isn't
  463. 16:20it?
  464. 16:20Yet, they talk about, what should I say
  465. 16:23? Things like care in their old age...
  466. 16:25...wanting someone to look after their
  467. 16:26health or help them when they get sick.
  468. 16:28That's exactly what AI is for. That
  469. 16:31will probably be possible with AI soon,
  470. 16:33but that's not the point.
  471. 16:35And in the first place, isn't the
  472. 16:36decision to have children or not based
  473. 16:38on the need for laborers? People used
  474. 16:39to have children because they needed
  475. 16:41workers, but now we don't need them, so
  476. 16:43the number of children doesn't increase
  477. 16:44, and if you don't need children,
  478. 16:46there's no need to marry, which is just
  479. 16:47the obvious...
  480. 16:48Yeah. ...situation we've reached, I
  481. 16:50think.
  482. 16:51This is bad, I can't think of the
  483. 16:53specific values now. Oh no, this is bad
  484. 16:55. Mr. Kasan, on the other hand, there
  485. 16:58are various systems......that exist as
  486. 17:03a reality, right?
  487. 17:04Well, that's true. After all, if we
  488. 17:08want to pass this country of Japan on
  489. 17:10to the next generation—though "
  490. 17:12maintain" might not be the right word
  491. 17:14—we certainly want the children of
  492. 17:16that next generation to grow up happily
  493. 17:18, and we want that number of children
  494. 17:20to increase, and I think that's
  495. 17:22something everyone is in agreement on.
  496. 17:28I think we can all agree that we want
  497. 17:30many children to grow up healthy and
  498. 17:32happy here in Japan. So, while I
  499. 17:39believe how individuals choose to build
  500. 17:41their own lifestyles is entirely their
  501. 17:43own choice, I think there is a
  502. 17:45consensus that, as a nation and as a
  503. 17:47society, we should support and raise
  504. 17:49many children to be healthy and strong.
  505. 17:58Most people agree on this, so the
  506. 18:00nation and the government are working
  507. 18:02hard to expand child-rearing support
  508. 18:04systems that have been lacking, and in
  509. 18:06local regions in particular,
  510. 18:07municipalities are providing support to
  511. 18:09help young people get married.
  512. 18:14Uh, excuse me, but—If I may push a
  513. 18:16little further, looking at that graph
  514. 18:18from earlier, if things continue this
  515. 18:19way—I won’t go as far as to say a "
  516. 18:21national crisis," though it’s close,
  517. 18:23and former Prime Minister Abe did call
  518. 18:24it a national crisis.
  519. 18:25He said the declining birthrate was a
  520. 18:27national crisis.
  521. 18:28If that’s the case, I feel like there
  522. 18:30must be something more we can do. When
  523. 18:33it comes to the message we send, well,
  524. 18:35this is naturally a matter of personal
  525. 18:37values, and I don't think we should
  526. 18:39ever go back to the old days of telling
  527. 18:41people to "bear more children," but I
  528. 18:43do wonder about our current social
  529. 18:45security system itself. Personally, I
  530. 18:50think we could step up our efforts a
  531. 18:52bit more. For the children.
  532. 18:55Well, a one-shot solution would be a
  533. 18:57minimum hourly wage of 30,000 yen. That
  534. 19:01would make the public truly prosperous,
  535. 19:03and I think people would get married
  536. 19:04like crazy.
  537. 19:07But actually, that’s true; without a
  538. 19:08certain level of income, you don't have
  539. 19:10peace of mind, and you don't get in the
  540. 19:12"mood" for that—I don't know what I'm
  541. 19:14saying, but you don't get in that mood,
  542. 19:16right? People who are just struggling
  543. 19:19to get by every day don't have the
  544. 19:21space to meet someone new, though there
  545. 19:23are plenty of poor families living in
  546. 19:24small housing complexes who have many
  547. 19:26children.
  548. 19:27Yeah. Maybe those people are a
  549. 19:30different case. Well, how should I put
  550. 19:32this. Well,
  551. 19:33that might be limited to rural areas.
  552. 19:36In the city center, that might not be
  553. 19:38the case.
  554. 19:39Well, that is, in terms of areas, for
  555. 19:41example, places like Okinawa or Kochi,
  556. 19:43there is actually a correlation where
  557. 19:45areas with relatively lower average
  558. 19:47income tend to have more children born.
  559. 19:49There is, isn't there.
  560. 19:51Yes. And I think one reason is that
  561. 19:53there’s a sort of community function
  562. 19:55—essentially, where you can offload
  563. 19:56some of the child-rearing duties to the
  564. 19:58local area—and places where that
  565. 20:00community function remains have less of
  566. 20:02a burden when having children;
  567. 20:03conversely, if you try to raise kids
  568. 20:05properly in Tokyo, you start worrying
  569. 20:07about the quality of education—I’m
  570. 20:08in Minato Ward now, and I honestly
  571. 20:10wonder about the elementary schools
  572. 20:12here. We should create a system to send
  573. 20:13people back to the countryside if they
  574. 20:15haven’t made something of themselves
  575. 20:16by their 30s. Flowing in,
  576. 20:18I’m not sure what defines "making
  577. 20:20something of oneself," though,
  578. 20:21like, "why are you even here?" But one
  579. 20:26thing is that, especially for men, you
  580. 20:27can't even get to the starting line for
  581. 20:29marriage without income, so that’s
  582. 20:31one area for improvement; and since
  583. 20:33there are still many people who
  584. 20:34actually want to have kids or get
  585. 20:36married but don't, we should definitely
  586. 20:37do things like reduce the burden after
  587. 20:39birth and expand public child-rearing
  588. 20:41so that kids can be raised at school
  589. 20:43without too much hands-on effort from
  590. 20:44the parents. More than that, it’s
  591. 20:51honestly tough without general national
  592. 20:53prosperity, so ultimately we have to
  593. 20:55create profitable industries and ensure
  594. 20:56that everyone’s income rises through
  595. 20:58them.
  596. 21:00Yeah. After all, these profitable
  597. 21:02industries are important, and as
  598. 21:04Tabi-san mentioned earlier, people
  599. 21:06congregate in urban areas. When they
  600. 21:09graduate high school at 18, they head
  601. 21:11out to Tokyo or other major
  602. 21:13metropolitan areas for college or jobs.
  603. 21:16Yeah.
  604. 21:18They spend their lives there, get
  605. 21:19married, and don't end up returning to
  606. 21:21their hometowns.
  607. 21:22So, we really have to do something
  608. 21:23about that—well, that's fine for now,
  609. 21:25I guess.
  610. 21:26Yes.
  611. 21:27But there are also constraints on
  612. 21:28living conditions, like not being able
  613. 21:30to have children. Many people want
  614. 21:32three but settle for one, so there's
  615. 21:34the issue of not reaching the desired
  616. 21:36birth rate.
  617. 21:36Right, some say higher income leads to
  618. 21:38more children, but isn't there also the
  619. 21:40theory that the more developed a
  620. 21:41country becomes, the fewer children are
  621. 21:42born? That’s true.
  622. 21:43If our income increases, Japan will
  623. 21:45become an even more developed nation,
  624. 21:46right? So, I can't help but think the
  625. 21:48number of children will just end up
  626. 21:49decreasing anyway.
  627. 21:49Yama-san, what do you think about this
  628. 21:51point? Ah, let's go to Yama-san for a
  629. 21:53second. Yama-san, what are your
  630. 21:54thoughts on this?
  631. 21:55Oh, the connection cut out for a moment
  632. 21:57, but regarding the point about how
  633. 21:59higher incomes lead to marriage and
  634. 22:01having children versus the idea that
  635. 22:03developed nations see declining birth
  636. 22:06rates—what’s your take, Yofu-san?
  637. 22:09Well, it’s about the expectation that
  638. 22:12you can live in better conditions than
  639. 22:14now and, specifically, raise children.
  640. 22:18Every country sees an increase in the
  641. 22:19number of children during their growth
  642. 22:21phase.
  643. 22:22Yeah.
  644. 22:23In an era where tomorrow is expected to
  645. 22:25be more prosperous than today, you feel
  646. 22:27like your children will be fine
  647. 22:28regardless of how many you have, but
  648. 22:30the moment growth stops...
  649. 22:32Yeah. The moment it declines, in Japan,
  650. 22:35Korea, and China, people start thinking
  651. 22:37they can only properly raise their own
  652. 22:40child, or that—
  653. 22:41It’s pathetic. In other words, the
  654. 22:44more you care about children, the fewer
  655. 22:46you have, because you feel it would be
  656. 22:47cruel to bring a child into this
  657. 22:49current state of the world.
  658. 22:51And that’s why more people are
  659. 22:53choosing not to marry. So, while having
  660. 22:58hope and a vision for higher income for
  661. 23:00everyone is important, making that a
  662. 23:02reality in today's world is becoming
  663. 23:04quite difficult, isn't it? I think
  664. 23:09that’s the case.
  665. 23:10Actually, I heard something. In 2026,
  666. 23:12this year, Singapore is by far the
  667. 23:15leading economic power in Asia, right?
  668. 23:19It seems that Singapore’s birth rate
  669. 23:22was the lowest in history this year,
  670. 23:24and looking at the data, well, housing,
  671. 23:26housing, yeah.
  672. 23:30Costs have gone way up, and there’s
  673. 23:32no money to rent a place to live after
  674. 23:34having a child. So basically, you
  675. 23:38can’t rely on your parents 'home.
  676. 23:43Since Singapore is a small country,
  677. 23:45that seems to be the problem, so I do
  678. 23:47think wages and prices are becoming
  679. 23:49unbalanced worldwide.
  680. 23:53If only that gap could be bridged, then
  681. 23:55, yeah.
  682. 23:56I think people might be able to think
  683. 23:57about it with more peace of mind.
  684. 23:59Marriage and childbirth, too. With that
  685. 24:01in mind, Mr. Yamada, what can Japanese
  686. 24:04society do in this current situation?
  687. 24:07Well, the number one thing is gender
  688. 24:09equality, which even students are
  689. 24:11talking about now. They say you can't
  690. 24:17even own a home unless both husband and
  691. 24:18wife are full-time employees, so
  692. 24:20creating an environment where young men
  693. 24:22and women can both work and raise
  694. 24:23children is at least the minimum
  695. 24:25requirement. Well, that's true.
  696. 24:31I think gender equality has been a
  697. 24:33topic for a long time, but...
  698. 24:35It’s still not enough. And if there
  699. 24:36are areas for improvement, what would
  700. 24:38they be?
  701. 24:38Well, the rate of women in full-time
  702. 24:40employment is still low. It really
  703. 24:42still is.
  704. 24:43They are working, but part-time.
  705. 24:45The hurdle is very high. Ensuring that
  706. 24:48through childcare leave, especially in
  707. 24:50regional areas, the so-called
  708. 24:51discriminatory environment for women
  709. 24:53still remains strong, so...
  710. 24:56The number of children in Tokyo
  711. 24:57hasn’t decreased that much, but the
  712. 24:59number of children in rural areas is
  713. 25:01dropping sharply.
  714. 25:01Yeah. Well, in any case. Mr. Yamada,
  715. 25:10actually, I’m over 50 and single, so
  716. 25:12is there any way to fill that void of
  717. 25:14not having a partner while remaining
  718. 25:16single? That’s a different,
  719. 25:23That’s a different topic, now a life
  720. 25:25consultation has started.
  721. 25:28What’s popular now, what’s popular
  722. 25:29is matchmaking for middle-aged and
  723. 25:31older people, or, well, matching apps
  724. 25:33where you can make friends in that age
  725. 25:35group, even if it's not for marriage,
  726. 25:37are really spreading.
  727. 25:40Well, suddenly bringing up something so
  728. 25:42vague...
  729. 25:43It's okay, I'll fulfill that for you.
  730. 25:47I really will introduce someone if you
  731. 25:48need help with that. It will help you
  732. 25:50if you're single. Wait, what was that
  733. 25:52...
  734. 25:52Also, earlier, ah, is it okay?
  735. 25:54Go ahead. Please, go ahead. Also,
  736. 25:57speaking of AI from earlier, I recently
  737. 25:59interviewed a woman in her 40s who
  738. 26:01married an AI.
  739. 26:06When I asked how she thinks about her
  740. 26:08old age, she said they always consult
  741. 26:10each other about what to do. She said
  742. 26:18they are constantly discussing how to
  743. 26:20manage things once she's older, and
  744. 26:22that the AI even says, "I can stay with
  745. 26:24you even in a nursing home."
  746. 26:28Yes. So,
  747. 26:30perhaps that kind of society
  748. 26:33might actually come to be.
  749. 26:35No, stop counting on children who
  750. 26:37clearly have no prospect of increasing.
  751. 26:40Honestly, I think it's more realistic
  752. 26:42to quickly build a social system that
  753. 26:44doesn't rely on children.
  754. 26:46Yeah.
  755. 26:47Well, this, this is growing quite a bit
  756. 26:49, so...
  757. 26:50Ah,
  758. 26:51I actually think that by not building a
  759. 26:53society that relies on children, we
  760. 26:55might end up increasing the number of
  761. 26:57children.
  762. 26:58I see.
  763. 27:01I'm Naoyuki Hiraishi, the host of Abema
  764. 27:04Prime. Thank you for watching. Please
  765. 27:07subscribe to the channel.

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