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✅현명한 투자자라면 주식 고를 때 확인해야 할 5가지 — Transcript

by 미키피디아 · 3,752 words · 610 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:01Having experienced the market's spikes
0:03and crashes this summer, some may have
0:04lost interest in investing, but
0:06investing is about steadily growing
0:07your precious assets, not riding the
0:09waves based on the current sentiment.
0:12That is why, even when the market is
0:13dull like these days, you need to build
0:15a portfolio by consistently
0:16diversifying your time and the stocks
0:18you invest in. We often say that when
0:20you buy a stock, you should be able to
0:22explain why you're buying it for at
0:23least five minutes. It’s not about
0:25buying because someone says it’s good
0:27or because the stock is trending;
0:28it’s about studying what you are
0:30buying and purchasing it with
0:31understanding. But when you actually
0:33try to study, it can be overwhelming to
0:35know where to start. So, I will explain
0:37in detail the five criteria I use to
0:40determine what you should study and
0:42what you should be able to explain
0:44before buying a stock. First, you must
0:47know what kind of business the company
0:48does. Since buying a stock means buying
0:50the company's business, this is the
0:52most fundamental step. It seems quite a
0:54few people buy stocks without really
0:56knowing what the company does. Before
0:59SpaceX went public, there were even
1:00people who said they bought Tesla
1:02because they thought it was going to
1:04Mars. Ah, they might go, right. That's
1:08true. It's possible. Especially with
1:12larger companies, there are many that
1:14operate multiple businesses, so you
1:16need to know what they do, and if you
1:18want to dig deeper, looking at their
1:20main customers, how they make money,
1:22and their market share reveals what the
1:24company is truly about. Let's take an
1:27example. Thinking of Nvidia as just a
1:29company that sells GPUs is a very
1:30primary level of understanding. Nvidia
1:32is a company that creates the products
1:35needed to build AI infrastructure.
1:37While GPUs are of course the biggest
1:39part of those products, they are a
1:41solution provider that also makes
1:42networks to connect GPUs, CPUs, and
1:44development tools like CUDA. Take
1:46Google for example; it’s a company
1:48with so many businesses, but it is
1:50broadly divided into three areas. For
1:51your reference, these three categories
1:53are how Google divides them in their
1:55earnings reports, not my own criteria.
1:57The first is Google Services, which
1:59includes Search, YouTube, Android, and
2:01so on. The key here is the money earned
2:03from advertisements, and it has the
2:05interesting characteristic that the
2:07people using the service and the
2:08advertisers paying the money are
2:10different. The second is the cloud
2:11business, which is most important for
2:13AI. The third is various new ventures
2:15like Waymo. Looking at Google's
2:17business divided into these three parts
2:18provides great insight. As we
2:19introduced in detail in our SpaceX
2:21video, SpaceX is also divided into
2:23three businesses: space,
2:25telecommunications, and AI. And if we
2:27look at the Costco business we
2:29discussed before filming, Costco isn't
2:32just a retail company selling goods; to
2:34understand their business, you have to
2:37separate sales revenue from membership
2:39revenue. When you look at how a
2:42business is structured and how it
2:43actually makes money, you can clearly
2:45see what kind of company it really is.
2:47The second step is to look at their
2:49earnings performance. We often talk
2:50about how important it is to check
2:52earnings when investing, but there’s
2:53just so much information in those
2:55reports. So, if you don't have a
2:57background in this, it can feel a bit
2:59difficult. If you're not sure where to
3:01start, it's good to look at two things
3:02first. First, look at total revenue to
3:04see how much they earned overall.
3:06Second, check the operating profit—
3:08how much they kept after running the
3:09business—and the ratio of operating
3:11profit to revenue, which we call the
3:13operating margin. It’s also helpful
3:15to look at the relationship between the
3:16two. Looking at Tesla’s recent
3:18earnings, revenue increased, but
3:19operating profit decreased. In other
3:21words, while total sales revenue grew,
3:23a lower operating margin was the key
3:25characteristic. Net income, which is
3:27what remains after subtracting interest
3:29, taxes, and so on from operating
3:31profit, is important, but it includes
3:33other variables. For example, Apple's
3:36recent net income included a tax refund
3:39, and Google's net income included
3:42gains from their investment in SpaceX
3:45going public. Since these are one-time
3:48gains, they don't really show how much
3:50the company earned from its core
3:51business, do they? That’s why I
3:54believe looking at operating profit
3:55provides better insight, and you can
3:57easily find revenue and operating
3:58profit figures in earnings reports.
4:01Companies usually have an "Investor
4:03Relations" website where they publicly
4:05disclose their earnings data. So, if
4:08you search for something like "Apple
4:10earnings" for a U.S. company or "
4:12Samsung Electronics earnings" for a
4:14Korean company, the first result
4:15usually links to their official
4:17disclosure page, which is the fastest
4:19and most accurate way to check. Also,
4:21you shouldn't just look at recent
4:23revenue and operating profit; you
4:24obviously need to see how they have
4:26changed over time. Earnings reports
4:29usually show year-over-year and
4:31quarter-over-quarter changes, so this
4:33isn't hard to find, but we generally
4:36prioritize year-over-year comparisons
4:38because of seasonality.
4:41What do you mean by seasonality? Ah,
4:43seasonality means that many companies
4:45see their performance fluctuate
4:47depending on the season. For example,
4:49with Apple, because they usually launch
4:51new products in September, their
4:52fourth-quarter revenue is typically
4:54quite high. So, to see how well they
4:57did in the fourth quarter, you have to
4:58compare it to the fourth quarter of the
5:00previous year; comparing it to the
5:02third quarter wouldn't give you
5:03accurate insights. That is the seasonal
5:06factor. Also, looking at how revenue
5:08and operating profit are divided by
5:10each business provides deeper insights,
5:13though some companies report results
5:15separately by business segment while
5:17others do not. Additionally, while
5:20reviewing performance, it is good to
5:22check if debt is too high, and for
5:24companies investing heavily in AI these
5:25days, it is good to look at free cash
5:27flow as well. Free cash flow is the
5:31amount of cash earned from business
5:33operations minus capital expenditures.
5:35In English, it is also called free cash
5:38flow. Third, it is about looking at
5:40future growth potential to see how much
5:41this company will grow going forward.
5:44Ultimately, it is the most important
5:45factor in determining stock price, so
5:47while one could say future growth
5:49potential is the most important aspect
5:51when investing, it is also the most
5:52difficult to analyze and a highly
5:54subjective area. For example, you try
5:57to predict a company's future by
5:58considering things like how much users
6:00or market share will grow, how much
6:02prices will rise, whether the total
6:03market size is actually expanding,
6:05whether costs can be reduced, if there
6:06is continued demand for new products,
6:08if there are opportunities for overseas
6:10expansion, how fast competitors are
6:11catching up, and whether future
6:13policies or regulations are favorable,
6:14and so on. At the same time, it is also
6:18good to think about what kind of growth
6:20is most important for the company you
6:22are investing in or planning to invest
6:24in. At the current stage, for some
6:27companies, increasing revenue is most
6:29important, but for others, increasing
6:31profit is more important than revenue,
6:32and for some, growing the customer base
6:34is the priority; the situations are all
6:36different. Let’s take Nvidia as an
6:39example. Since many companies,
6:42including Big Tech, do not yet show
6:43signs of reducing AI infrastructure
6:45investment, demand for Nvidia's
6:47products is expected to continue, and
6:48because competitors 'growth is still
6:50limited, we can forecast that Nvidia's
6:52market share and price competitiveness
6:54will last for a while. However, how
6:58much infrastructure will be needed for
7:00the actual inference of using AI,
7:02rather than just AI training, is a more
7:04important metric, and that means AI
7:06services must show actual revenue
7:08generation for Nvidia to sustain its
7:10future growth potential.
7:12Then, are you saying that to evaluate
7:14Nvidia's future growth potential, we
7:15also need to study other companies?
7:17That is correct. To assess the future
7:18growth potential of any company, you
7:20naturally have to look at what is
7:21happening with other companies as well.
7:23If, for instance, an emerging GPU
7:25company in China is suddenly growing,
7:26this would be fatal to Nvidia’s
7:28future growth potential, and if
7:30companies building AI infrastructure
7:32are not making money, this could also
7:33be fatal to Nvidia’s future growth
7:35potential. Therefore, it is important
7:37not just to look at one company, but to
7:39see how the entire industry is moving.
7:41Looking at Google from the perspective
7:43of today's stock market, the most
7:45important factor among its three main
7:47businesses is how much its cloud
7:49division grows. This is also true for
7:51Microsoft and Amazon, which are
7:53involved in various business areas.
7:56Since cloud computing, or data centers,
7:59is at the core of the AI era, its
8:01growth rate and the spending on
8:02expansion are the most important
8:04indicators of these companies' future
8:06potential. Other key points to watch
8:11for Google's future growth include
8:13whether it can eventually sell its
8:15proprietary TPU chips to build a
8:18meaningful business, and if Waymo's
8:20robotaxi service can grow into a
8:22significant venture. Even for Tesla,
8:25the vast majority of its revenue
8:27currently comes from EV sales, with
8:29about 10%coming from its energy
8:31business. However, investors are
8:33focused solely on the robotaxi and
8:34robotics businesses, which are still in
8:36their infancy. It is a quintessential
8:39company for betting on future growth.
8:41Recently, the Cybercab—the robotaxi
8:43without a steering wheel or pedals that
8:46Tesla investors had been waiting for—
8:48was unveiled in Austin, Texas, causing
8:51the stock to rise by about 5%. But upon
8:54launch, it turned out that only 45
8:55units were released. There wasn't any
8:58specific mention of future plans either
9:00. Even Elon Musk was quite quiet that
9:02day. On top of that, news of a safety
9:05standard investigation caused the stock
9:06to drop by 6%the following day. Oh, but
9:09the Cybercab really did look cool. One
9:12way to identify the car you ordered is
9:15that your app tells you what color is
9:17displayed on the front, so if it says
9:19orange, you look for the cab with an
9:21orange light. That’s a really great
9:25product design, I think. Also, the
9:27Cybercab is an interesting model
9:28because, while it's designed as a
9:30robotaxi, they also plan to sell it to
9:32the general public. So, regular users
9:35could use it for themselves or deploy
9:37it as a taxi, which makes for a
9:39fascinating business model.
9:42That would be really interesting. You
9:43could use it for your commute, but on
9:45days you take public transit, you send
9:47it out to earn money.
9:48Or when you're at work, it can be out
9:49there generating income for you.
9:50Oh. Anyway, generally speaking, it's
9:53easier to approach stock investing when
9:55you focus on industries you know well.
9:59The reason my portfolio is heavy on
10:01tech stocks is that I’ve spent 20
10:03years working in the tech industry, so
10:05I naturally have more insight and find
10:07it easier to form my own judgment on a
10:09company's future. Of course, that
10:13doesn't mean I'll always be right. If
10:16you were going to fit in well at a
10:17company after 20 years, you would have
10:19stayed.
10:22But because I had 20 years of industry
10:23insight, I cut my losses immediately.
10:29Also, looking at the performance
10:30reports mentioned earlier, they contain
10:32financial figures, but they also
10:34include stories about the company’s
10:36vision for the future of our business,
10:38so staying updated on related materials
10:40and news is crucial for investing. In
10:43the video we recently uploaded on how
10:45to gain insights, we introduced a
10:46straightforward method for grasping the
10:48context when reading the news. The "
10:51cause, repeatability, scalability,
10:53persistence, and perspective" criteria
10:55I created are also great benchmarks for
10:56investing. Please check the video on
10:59gaining insights for more detailed
11:01information. Additionally, when
11:03thinking about information we can refer
11:05to, there is forward guidance. Meaning
11:08"to guide," companies sometimes
11:10announce their expected future
11:12performance during earnings releases.
11:16So, often, forward guidance moves stock
11:19prices more than the actual earnings
11:23themselves. In Nvidia’s latest
11:27earnings report, the stock price soared
11:30because they projected 70%revenue
11:32growth for next year despite supply
11:34shortages, whereas Broadcom’s stock
11:36dropped after earnings because their
11:38guidance fell short of expectations.
11:43Even if you did well, if you’re
11:44expected to do poorly, the stock
11:45won’t rise; it feels quite brutal.
11:47The stock market is a brutal place. Now
11:50, thinking about the examples of Nvidia
11:52and Broadcom, companies hold conference
11:54calls with reporters after announcing
11:55earnings. During these, CEOs or CFOs
11:59come out to discuss various things, and
12:01looking at Nvidia's conference call,
12:02Jensen Huang is exceptionally good at
12:04this. Jensen Huang is also a naturally
12:07gifted salesman. However, the
12:09aforementioned Broadcom CEO is a bit
12:10weak in this regard. He keeps speaking
12:12in a conservative manner. I think that
12:14is also part of the reason why the
12:16stock price fell. Another piece of
12:18information is the future performance
12:20projected by securities analysts. The
12:23average of these analysts 'earnings
12:25projections is called a consensus. It
12:28means the sum of opinions, right? When
12:31actual earnings are released, the stock
12:33price often moves based on whether they
12:35were higher or lower than the consensus
12:37, meaning the analysts' forecasts. Of
12:40course, there are many excellent
12:41analysts, but they certainly don’t
12:43get every projection right. No one can
12:46predict stock prices or analysts 'moves
12:48; there are only forecasts and
12:49expectations. So, while the consensus
12:52—the average of analysts' projections
12:55—is good, looking at the differences
12:57between their individual projections
12:59can also provide great insights. In
13:01most cases, the projections might be
13:03similar, but there are often cases
13:05where the differences are significant.
13:07SpaceX is a great example because
13:10it’s a company where analysts have
13:12vastly different outlooks. If you look
13:16at analyst projections for SpaceX, some
13:19estimate it’s worth under $ 100,
13:21while others predict it could reach $
13:24800. So, calculating an average
13:26doesn’t really hold much meaning,
13:28does it?
13:29Then, where can you check analyst
13:31projections or the consensus? The
13:34easiest way is to visit financial
13:36portals like Yahoo Finance or Naver
13:38Finance, which we often mention, as
13:40they have dedicated pages for analyst
13:43estimates. Checking there is definitely
13:45the fastest way. Fourth, you need to
13:48look at the current price. Points 1, 2,
13:50and 3 mentioned earlier fall under
13:52business analysis, while point 4 is
13:54stock analysis. Even a great company
13:56might not be a good investment if you
13:58buy it at too high a price. At the very
14:01least, it's good to see how the stock
14:03price has changed over the last five
14:05years and why, while also evaluating
14:07its valuation. In other words, you want
14:10to see if the current price is
14:12overvalued, undervalued, or fairly
14:14valued. This is also a subjective area
14:16with no definitive answer, but there
14:18are still several indicators we can
14:20compare. The most commonly used one,
14:22which we talk about often, is the PER,
14:25or the price-to-earnings ratio. If the
14:27PER is 10, it means the current stock
14:29price is ten times the earnings.
14:33However, the PER looks at the past
14:35based on the previous year's earnings,
14:37whereas the forward PER looks at the
14:40future by comparing the stock price to
14:42projected earnings for the next year.
14:46Therefore, I think looking at the
14:48forward PER is more meaningful than
14:50just the PER. Of course, the future
14:53earnings estimates used here are based
14:55on the analyst projections mentioned
14:57earlier, so they might not be accurate.
15:00Naturally, whether the figure is high
15:02or low varies greatly by company,
15:05industry, and country, so comparing it
15:07with the PER or forward PER of similar
15:10competitors provides more meaningful
15:12insights. For example, memory
15:15semiconductor companies like Samsung
15:17Electronics and SK Hynix currently have
15:19low PERs due to high earnings and
15:21concerns about the industry's cyclical
15:23nature, forming a very low forward PER
15:26of about 5 to 6. On the other hand,
15:29Tesla, which moves based on future
15:30business expectations rather than
15:32immediate earnings, has a forward PER
15:34of 150, and Palantir is around 80, so
15:36it’s difficult to simply compare the
15:38PERs of two companies in different
15:40situations. But since PER is an
15:44indicator that can only be calculated
15:45for profitable companies, it’s
15:47meaningless for companies that are
15:49still in the red, so for such companies
15:51, we look at the PSR, which calculates
15:53the stock price relative to revenue.
15:56For example, since SpaceX is still an
15:58unprofitable company, if we look at PSR
16:01instead of PER, it's about 65, meaning
16:03the stock price is 65 times its revenue
16:05. To put it positively, it means
16:09investors highly value SpaceX's future,
16:12but negatively, it means the company is
16:14incredibly overvalued. If you go to
16:18stock portal sites like Yahoo Finance
16:20or Naver Finance that I mentioned
16:22earlier, you can find this data
16:24organized very clearly. For the record,
16:26I personally don't invest in companies
16:28that are operating at a loss. Even if
16:31future expectations are high, I believe
16:33it's sufficient to invest only after
16:35seeing them turn a profit, or at least
16:37once a clear path to profitability
16:39emerges. There’s also PBR, which
16:44looks at the stock price relative to
16:46book value; if PBR is lower than 1, it
16:49means the market values the company
16:51lower than the assets recorded on its
16:54books. But if you look at small-cap
16:57stocks in the market, there are
16:59actually more companies with a PBR of
17:00less than 1 than you might think.
17:03Personally, I don’t think investing
17:05in companies with a PBR below 1 is a
17:08good idea. So, we’ve arrived at step
17:11four. And if your conclusion is "I
17:13think this stock is worth buying,"
17:16there is one more thing to consider.
17:19The final fifth step is to refute your
17:21own logic. When investing, it’s
17:24really easy to fall into confirmation
17:25bias. Once you decide you want to buy a
17:28company, you often keep looking for
17:30positive information or watch videos
17:32and articles that praise it, rather
17:34than judging it objectively; you
17:35frequently end up searching for
17:37evidence to justify your choice. In any
17:41field, not just stocks, I believe that
17:43truly understanding something means
17:45being able to explain the strongest
17:46counterarguments to your own position.
17:50So, by refuting my own thoughts, I
17:52examine the risks of buying that stock.
17:56Refuting your own thinking is a great
17:58final step for making important
18:00decisions, not just in investing. So,
18:03if we refute the companies we mentioned
18:06earlier, Nvidia's customers—the big
18:08tech companies that buy its products—
18:10are also its competitors, as they are
18:12focusing on developing their own chips
18:14to potentially replace Nvidia. It’s
18:18not an immediate replacement, but as
18:19their proprietary chips evolve,
18:21Nvidia's market share and pricing power
18:23could decline. Also, if real-world AI
18:26services are adopted more slowly than
18:28expected and a proper revenue model
18:30doesn't emerge, infrastructure
18:32investment for inference will slow down
18:34, which would be fatal for not just
18:36Nvidia but all AI infrastructure
18:37companies. Furthermore, Nvidia is even
18:41acting as a financier by investing in
18:43or guaranteeing its customers who need
18:46to invest in AI infrastructure. But if
18:49the AI business doesn't meet
18:51expectations, it could suffer a blow
18:53far greater than just a simple drop in
18:56revenue. On top of that, there's the
18:58risk of lower margins due to rising
19:00memory semiconductor prices, and the
19:02growth of Chinese chip companies is
19:04also a risk.
19:05That’s a lot of risks.
19:06Exactly. It just goes to show how big
19:09of a company Nvidia is. And it also
19:11means it plays that significant a role
19:14in the market. So, naturally, there are
19:16many risks involved. If we talk about
19:19Google, if the search market shifts to
19:21AI, even though Google, which has
19:23already incorporated a lot of AI into
19:25its search, will certainly have a
19:27presence, it’s unlikely they will
19:30maintain the overwhelming market share
19:32they currently hold in the AI era.
19:35Since about half of Google's total
19:37revenue currently comes from search ads
19:39, this could be shaken. Also, the huge
19:42amount of money being spent on AI
19:44infrastructure, which is bothering
19:46Google's stock price the most these
19:47days, and the question of when that
19:49investment can be recouped is a major
19:51risk as well. Google has been a beloved
19:55company by investors because it made
19:57good money, kept plenty of cash, and
19:59used that cash for significant stock
20:01buybacks, but that foundation could be
20:03shaken. In this recent earnings report,
20:07due to the massive infrastructure
20:09investment, the aforementioned free
20:10cash flow was negative for the first
20:12time since Google's IPO, and this news
20:14dragged down the stock price. So, in
20:17the end, before pressing that buy
20:20button with a trembling hand, if you
20:22synthesize all the information you've
20:25analyzed and conclude that this stock
20:27is worth buying, that’s when you
20:29press the button. That means you're
20:34pressing it while knowing what the
20:36risks are, and as we always say,
20:39instead of going all-in on that one
20:41stock, if you look at your entire
20:44portfolio and decide what portion to
20:47invest, it could lead to much wiser
20:50investments.
20:51The wine you prepared today is really
20:53delicious. This is so my style.
20:54Oh, really? We usually have red wine
20:57when we film, but it's white wine today
20:59, and I think nothing can beat Burgundy
21:01white wine. It’s the best white wine,
21:04and these Burgundy white wines aren’t
21:06even that expensive. But there’s this
21:08sesame oil aroma that you can only feel
21:10in Burgundy white wines. I absolutely
21:14love that. I have only one criterion
21:17for white wine. Sesame oil. So,
21:19sometimes I even think, "Should I just
21:21add a few drops of sesame oil to it?"
21:24because I love that sesame oil aroma
21:26and taste in white wines, especially in
21:28Chardonnays. But this one today, it's
21:30not even that expensive, yet it has
21:32such a strong sesame oil scent. After
21:34talking today, I’ve come to realize
21:37that whether it's earned income from a
21:39job, business income, or investment
21:42income, you might get lucky and make
21:44money, but there’s no such thing as
21:47easy money. That’s why I’m reminded
21:50once again that it’s crucial to
21:52always study before you invest. So, for
21:56things floating around on YouTube like
21:57"buy this and you can earn this much,"
21:59I think it’s just as important never
22:01to be swayed by that kind of content.
22:04I’ll be back next time with another
22:06fun and informative video. Thank you.

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