トランプがイランの停戦提案を拒否、明日の日経暴落時の禁断行動5選 — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Today, I will explain under the title:
2. 0:02"Trump rejects Iran's ceasefire
3. 0:04proposal: 5 forbidden actions to take
4. 0:06if the Nikkei crashes tomorrow." First,
5. 0:08let me give you the answer to whether
6. 0:10the Nikkei will fall tomorrow. The
7. 0:13downward pressure has clearly increased
8. 0:15since Friday's market close. However,
9. 0:18it is too early to conclude that a
10. 0:20crash is certain at this point. The
11. 0:22reason is the Sunday Dow currently in
12. 0:24motion. More precisely, IG's weekend "
13. 0:27Wall Street" index is down less than 1%
14. 0:30as of the time of writing. While it is
15. 0:33certainly down, this figure is not
16. 0:35enough to conclude that the Nikkei will
17. 0:38crash by 1,000 or 2,000 yen. Rather,
18. 0:40what is important for the Nikkei this
19. 0:42time is not the rate of the Sunday
20. 0:44Dow's decline itself, but that the
21. 0:46three premises supporting stock prices
22. 0:48until Friday were simultaneously shaken
23. 0:50over the weekend. The first is the
24. 0:52expectation of easing tensions in the
25. 0:54Iran situation. Through Qatari
26. 0:55mediation, Iran had conveyed a proposal
27. 0:58to the U.S. side to reopen the Strait
28. 1:00of Hormuz within seven days and end
29. 1:02hostilities in the Middle East,
30. 1:04provided conditions were met. However,
31. 1:06on September 26, President Trump
32. 1:08explicitly told reporters that he had
33. 1:11rejected this proposal. What is
34. 1:13important here is not simply the news
35. 1:15that there was no ceasefire. For the
36. 1:17past week, the market had been buying
37. 1:19into the trend that if negotiations
38. 1:21progressed, supply concerns in the
39. 1:22Strait of Hormuz would dissipate, oil
40. 1:24would fall, and inflationary pressure
41. 1:26would weaken. That expectation was also
42. 1:28priced into Friday's U.S. stock market
43. 1:30rally. The second is crude oil. IG's
44. 1:33weekend U.S. crude oil price is up
45. 1:35about 2%as of the time of writing.
46. 1:37Since it is a weekend market, it is not
47. 1:40the actual weekday futures, but a
48. 1:41reaction is emerging that is the
49. 1:43opposite of the trend up to Friday,
50. 1:45where oil was falling on negotiation
51. 1:47hopes. Actually, this is what I want to
52. 1:49watch more than the Sunday Dow this
53. 1:51time. Stock indices are easily swayed
54. 1:53by thin weekend trading, whereas......
55. 1:55crude oil is the first channel through
56. 1:57which news about Iran and Hormuz
57. 1:59transmits to corporate profits and
58. 2:01prices. What the market was pricing in
59. 2:03until Friday was the expectation that
60. 2:05if negotiations progressed, high oil
61. 2:07prices would soften. Therefore, the
62. 2:09combination of stocks falling less than
63. 2:111%while crude oil rises about 2%over
64. 2:13the weekend is more significant as an
65. 2:15indicator of the unwinding of
66. 2:17negotiation hopes than as a mere sign
67. 2:19of anxiety. Furthermore, in Japan, the
68. 2:21import value in August has increased by
69. 2:23approximately 28%compared to the
70. 2:25previous month. The increase in crude
71. 2:27oil imports is significant, and high
72. 2:29energy costs are already showing up in
73. 2:31import expenses. If high oil prices
74. 2:33persist, this news won't just be a
75. 2:35short-term market factor; it will
76. 2:38impact corporate costs, prices, and
77. 2:40even BOJ policy. The third point is
78. 2:42interest rates. On Friday morning, the
79. 2:44yield on the 10-year US Treasury note
80. 2:47stood at a high level of 5.18%. If oil
81. 2:50rises again, high energy costs will
82. 2:52drive up inflation, making it harder
83. 2:54for interest rates to fall. In other
84. 2:58words, this geopolitical risk isn't
85. 3:00just about the fear of war; it could
86. 3:02ripple from oil to inflation, interest
87. 3:05rates, and finally to high-valuation
88. 3:07growth stocks. And this structure has a
89. 3:10strong impact on the Nikkei Stock
90. 3:12Average. On September 25, the Nikkei
91. 3:16225 closed at 36,636 yen, up 850 yen.
92. 3:20With 171 stocks rising and 51 falling,
93. 3:23it was a very strong day. However, the
94. 3:27technology sector contributed about 583
95. 3:30yen to that 850 yen gain. Tech stocks
96. 3:33accounted for about 70%of the gains.
97. 3:35Furthermore, as of September 25, the
98. 3:38technology sector weight in the Nikkei
99. 3:41225 is about 57%. Advantest alone
100. 3:44accounts for about 12%. This means that
101. 3:47if rising oil leads to higher US
102. 3:49interest rates, triggering a sell-off
103. 3:51in US semiconductor and growth stocks,
104. 3:54the Nikkei is structurally more
105. 3:56vulnerable than TOPIX. This is the
106. 3:58first point of caution for tomorrow.
107. 4:00It’s not just that the Nikkei falls
108. 4:02because the Nasdaq falls. Iran denies
109. 4:04involvement, causing oil prices to rise
110. 4:06. Higher oil prices fuel concerns about
111. 4:08inflation and interest rates. Rising
112. 4:10interest rates put downward pressure on
113. 4:11valuations for semiconductor stocks.
114. 4:13The decline in these stocks heavily
115. 4:15drags down the Nikkei. Only when this
116. 4:17chain reaction occurs does it become a
117. 4:20strong factor for a Nikkei decline.
118. 4:22Moreover, Japanese stocks on Monday
119. 4:24have another factor that could trigger
120. 4:26a reaction. The Nikkei rose 850 yen on
121. 4:29Friday. The US Dow also closed up by
122. 4:33about 1%. Falling oil prices and hopes
123. 4:36for Middle East negotiations were among
124. 4:38the factors supporting that rise.
125. 4:40However, it was Saturday when President
126. 4:42Trump publicly acknowledged the refusal
127. 4:44. From the perspective of Japan's cash
128. 4:46market, tomorrow will be the first
129. 4:48trading day to react to this official
130. 4:50confirmation. Some of the reasons for
131. 4:52buying on Friday weakened over the
132. 4:54weekend. This is more important than
133. 4:56the emergence of new negative news. It
134. 4:58is because some of the reasons to buy
135. 5:00have disappeared after the market was
136. 5:02pushed up to a high level. However, it
137. 5:04is dangerous to conclude that a crash
138. 5:06is inevitable here. Sunday trading is a
139. 5:08different product from weekday trading.
140. 5:11IG itself explains that weekend indices
141. 5:14are traded separately from weekday
142. 5:16markets, and because participation is
143. 5:18low, liquidity is thin, price swings
144. 5:21are often larger, and bid-ask spreads
145. 5:23tend to widen. In short, Sunday trading
146. 5:26serves as a thermometer to gauge how
147. 5:29the market is reacting to weekend news,
148. 5:31but it is not the official futures
149. 5:33price for Monday morning. As of now, a
150. 5:36decline of less than 1%suggests that,
151. 5:38at this stage, only caution is
152. 5:40warranted. A Black Monday is not a
153. 5:43certainty. Furthermore, there are
154. 5:45factors that could support Japanese
155. 5:47stocks tomorrow. September 28th is the
156. 5:49final day for purchasing stocks with
157. 5:51rights, such as end-of-September
158. 5:52dividends. For investors looking to
159. 5:54secure those end-of-September rights,
160. 5:56holding the stock until this day is
161. 5:58necessary. If demand for
162. 6:00dividend-related buying emerges, it
163. 6:02could soften a full-scale sell-off. And
164. 6:05another very important time is 8:50 AM.
165. 6:08The Bank of Japan raised its policy
166. 6:11interest rate to 1.25%on September 18th
167. 6:14. The main opinions from that meeting
168. 6:16are scheduled to be released at 8:50 AM
169. 6:18on September 28th. This is just before
170. 6:21the cash market for Japanese stocks
171. 6:23opens. If the content is perceived as
172. 6:25being more hawkish on further rate
173. 6:27hikes than the market anticipates, it
174. 6:29could weigh on stock prices through a
175. 6:31stronger yen and rising Japanese
176. 6:33government bond yields. Conversely, if
177. 6:35the content is interpreted as not
178. 6:37rushing further rate hikes, it could
179. 6:38partially offset the selling pressure
180. 6:40caused by the Middle East situation. In
181. 6:42other words, tomorrow morning, not only
182. 6:44the weekend's Iran situation but also
183. 6:46Bank of Japan-related news will be
184. 6:48added just before the market opens.
185. 6:50Moreover, the timing is quite unique.
186. 6:52Nikkei 225 futures at the Osaka
187. 6:55Exchange begin daytime trading at 8:45
188. 6:58AM. And the Bank of Japan's main
189. 7:00opinions are released at 8:50 AM. This
190. 7:03means for the first five minutes,
191. 7:05futures will set prices based mainly on
192. 7:07the weekend's Iran situation, crude oil
193. 7:09, and the U.S. market, and then Japan's
194. 7:12own monetary policy factors will be
195. 7:14added to the equation. Therefore, it is
196. 7:16dangerous to look only at the futures
197. 7:18price at 8:45 and assume the same
198. 7:20direction will continue until the spot
199. 7:22market opens at 9:00. If the yen and
200. 7:24interest rates react to the 8:50 data,
201. 7:26the opening landscape could change in
202. 7:28just a few minutes. The condition for a
203. 7:30significant decline tomorrow is not a
204. 7:32single piece of bad news, but a
205. 7:34simultaneous occurrence. First, crude
206. 7:36oil returns to the regular market and
207. 7:38maintains its weekend gains. Next, the
208. 7:40US 10-year Treasury yield turns upward
209. 7:43again. Added to this is a stronger yen
210. 7:45against the dollar, and the BOJ’s
211. 7:47summary of opinions suggests further
212. 7:49rate hikes. Furthermore, if the selling
213. 7:51of US stock futures, especially in
214. 7:53semiconductors and growth stocks,
215. 7:55continues, it will no longer be just a
216. 7:57problem of high crude oil prices. This
217. 7:59is because sell pressure on the Nikkei
218. 8:01will enter through four channels:
219. 8:03Japanese corporate costs, interest
220. 8:05rates, the yen, and US tech stocks.
221. 8:08Conversely, if crude oil loses its
222. 8:10gains in the regular market, US rates
223. 8:13stabilize, the yen weakens against the
224. 8:15dollar, and the BOJ content is as
225. 8:17expected, selling may be limited even
226. 8:20with the weekend's bad news. Moreover,
227. 8:23since September 28th is the final day
228. 8:25for dividend rights, there is room for
229. 8:27buying to remain, centered on
230. 8:29high-dividend stocks. It is also
231. 8:31important not to view the Nikkei
232. 8:32Average and the Japanese market as a
233. 8:34whole as the same thing. While high
234. 8:37crude oil prices tend to weigh on
235. 8:39sectors sensitive to cost increases
236. 8:41like air transport and chemicals, they
237. 8:43can provide relative support for
238. 8:45resource-related stocks. Rising
239. 8:49interest rates tend to be a headwind
240. 8:51for high-valuation growth stocks, but
241. 8:53bank stocks may react differently.
242. 8:56Therefore, even if the Nikkei is down
243. 8:581,000 yen, it does not mean all stocks
244. 9:00are being sold for the same reason.
245. 9:02Currently, as the technology sector
246. 9:04accounts for about 57%of the Nikkei, a
247. 9:06decline in high-priced semiconductor
248. 9:08stocks can significantly worsen the
249. 9:10appearance of the index. Conversely, if
250. 9:12the TOPIX also collapses and sectors
251. 9:15like banking, resources, and exports
252. 9:17are broadly sold, it is easier to see
253. 9:19this as risk aversion spreading across
254. 9:21the entire Japanese market, rather than
255. 9:23just an issue with the Nikkei's
256. 9:25composition. Then, the following day,
257. 9:27September 29th, is the ex-rights date.
258. 9:30Even if buying for rights on Monday
259. 9:31supports the market, the share price
260. 9:33will mechanically tend to drop by the
261. 9:35amount of the dividend and other rights
262. 9:37the following day. To avoid attributing
263. 9:39Tuesday's decline entirely to worsening
264. 9:41geopolitical risks, we must look at
265. 9:43Monday and Tuesday separately. At this
266. 9:46point, you can see how dangerous it is
267. 9:48to definitively predict tomorrow’s
268. 9:50market movement in one direction. So,
269. 9:52what should you do if the market
270. 9:54actually opens significantly lower?
271. 9:56Rather than declaring a major loss, I
272. 9:58will narrow down five forbidden actions
273. 10:01that tend to amplify your own losses
274. 10:03during a sudden downturn. As with past
275. 10:05market crashes, what is truly scary is
276. 10:08not the initial drop, but the emotional
277. 10:10second and third moves you make
278. 10:12immediately afterward. Forbidden Action
279. 10:141: Dumping everything at market price
280. 10:16right after the opening. The first
281. 10:19thing to avoid is processing everything
282. 10:21at 9:00 AM just because the news is bad
283. 10:23or futures are cheap. The opening is
284. 10:26the time when orders accumulated
285. 10:28overnight hit the market all at once.
286. 10:30Especially on Mondays following big
287. 10:32weekend news, sell orders tend to
288. 10:34concentrate, which can cause the
289. 10:36initial price to gap down significantly
290. 10:38. The problem is that this price is not
291. 10:41necessarily the low for the day. In
292. 10:43this case, multiple factors will be
293. 10:45added before the opening, including
294. 10:47crude oil, the dollar-yen rate, U.S.
295. 10:49stock futures, and the BOJ's summary of
296. 10:52opinions. If sell orders concentrate
297. 10:54solely on the morning's bad news, but
298. 10:57then the BOJ content is weaker than
299. 10:59expected, oil gains shrink, or new
300. 11:01mediation reports emerge, the market
301. 11:03may rebound rapidly after the opening.
302. 11:06Of course, there are also days when the
303. 11:08decline simply continues. The important
304. 11:11thing is that selling at the opening is
305. 11:13not necessarily wrong, but taking the
306. 11:15extreme action of dumping your entire
307. 11:17holding before price discovery is
308. 11:19complete—based only on weekend market
309. 11:21numbers—is dangerous. In particular,
310. 11:23if you liquidate long-term cash
311. 11:24holdings for the same reasons as
312. 11:26short-term futures declines, your
313. 11:28reason for holding and your reason for
314. 11:30selling become completely disconnected.
315. 11:32First, you want to distinguish whether
316. 11:34the value of the company itself has
317. 11:35changed, or if it is just being sold
318. 11:37temporarily due to market-wide risk
319. 11:39aversion. Forbidden Action 2: Doubling
320. 11:42down on margin trades the moment the
321. 11:44price drops. The second is the action
322. 11:46of using margin trading or leverage to
323. 11:48rapidly increase your buying volume,
324. 11:49thinking you can recoup losses because
325. 11:51the price has become cheaper after a
326. 11:53sharp drop. This is completely
327. 11:54different from buying little by little
328. 11:56with cash. In margin trading, you face
329. 11:58a second problem: the decline in your
330. 12:01margin buffer on top of the stock price
331. 12:03drop itself. If multiple stocks drop at
332. 12:06once, your unrealized losses will widen
333. 12:09, potentially leading to unexpected
334. 12:11margin calls or forced liquidations.
335. 12:15The worst-case scenario is buying more
336. 12:17at a 5%drop, buying again at another 5%
337. 12:20drop, and eventually realizing that
338. 12:22you're no longer judging the stock's
339. 12:24recovery, but whether your margin can
340. 12:27hold. In this state, you may think you
341. 12:30are making investment decisions, but in
342. 12:32reality, your actions are being
343. 12:33dictated by the market. In geopolitical
344. 12:35events like this one, there is no
345. 12:37guarantee that the situation will be
346. 12:39resolved overnight. With multiple
347. 12:41variables like the Strait of Hormuz,
348. 12:44US-Iran negotiations, crude oil, and US
349. 12:46interest rates, the initial low is not
350. 12:49necessarily the final low. A price drop
351. 12:51doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap,
352. 12:53and a decline is not the same as
353. 12:54hitting a bottom. Especially when using
354. 12:56leverage, ignoring this difference can
355. 12:58force you out of the market due to poor
356. 13:00money management, even if you hold the
357. 13:02right stocks. The third forbidden
358. 13:05action is betting heavily in the
359. 13:07opposite direction just because of the
360. 13:09Sunday market—specifically, going
361. 13:11all-in on one side using Nikkei futures
362. 13:13or inverse products. This may look like
363. 13:17a hedge against a market crash at first
364. 13:19glance. However, as of this writing,
365. 13:21the weekend market is only down by less
366. 13:24than 1%. Furthermore, it is separate
367. 13:26from the weekday market and lacks
368. 13:27liquidity. There is not enough
369. 13:29information to decide that the market
370. 13:31will definitely fall on Monday based
371. 13:32solely on this. Rather, what will
372. 13:34determine the direction tomorrow is not
373. 13:36the weekend price itself, but the
374. 13:38formal market's reaction thereafter.
375. 13:40Will crude oil maintain its 2%gain from
376. 13:42the weekend? Will US stock futures
377. 13:44continue to be sold off after regular
378. 13:46trading resumes? Will the dollar-yen
379. 13:48rate move further toward a stronger yen
380. 13:50from the 157 range? Will interest rates
381. 13:52rise based on the Bank of Japan's
382. 13:54summary of opinions, or will a new
383. 13:56mediation proposal emerge between Iran
384. 13:57and the US? If two or three of these
385. 13:59align in the same direction, the
386. 14:01downward pressure on the Nikkei will
387. 14:03intensify. Conversely, if the
388. 14:06weekend’s bad news is fully priced in
389. 14:08, crude oil recovers, the yen weakens,
390. 14:11and stock futures rebound, your bearish
391. 14:13position built on the Sunday market may
392. 14:15be squeezed. The weekend market is not
393. 14:18a conclusion, but a tentative reaction.
394. 14:21Ignoring this difference and going
395. 14:22all-in on one direction is the third
396. 14:24forbidden action. Forbidden action 4:
397. 14:27Praying while holding margin positions
398. 14:29without checking your safety line. The
399. 14:33fourth is failing to understand at what
400. 14:35price level your account will face a
401. 14:37margin call, even while engaging in
402. 14:38margin trading. It’s not just the
403. 14:41unrealized losses that are scary during
404. 14:43a market crash. It’s running out of
405. 14:44funds before the market recovers. For
406. 14:46instance, even if you are confident in
407. 14:48your long-term outlook, you may be
408. 14:50forced to add funds or liquidate
409. 14:52positions if you fall below the
410. 14:54brokerage’s maintenance margin.
411. 14:56Furthermore, during a sharp decline,
412. 14:58not just one, but multiple stocks may
413. 15:00fall simultaneously, and even the
414. 15:02collateral value of your physical
415. 15:04shares may drop. If you just hope for a
416. 15:07rebound without checking anything, you
417. 15:09might be forced to act at the exact
418. 15:11price range you wanted to avoid most.
419. 15:14Long-term investment strategies are a
420. 15:16separate issue from margin trading
421. 15:18deadlines and collateral management.
422. 15:20Viewing a company from a long-term
423. 15:22perspective does not make the capital
424. 15:24constraints of margin positions
425. 15:25disappear. On days like tomorrow, where
426. 15:28a gap opening is possible, your
427. 15:29composure depends on knowing how much
428. 15:31the price can move before your account
429. 15:33conditions change, rather than
430. 15:35predicting the stock price itself.
431. 15:37Forbidden action 5: Suddenly increasing
432. 15:40the frequency and size of trades to
433. 15:42recover losses. The fifth is when you
434. 15:45take a loss first thing in the morning
435. 15:47and then frantically increase the
436. 15:48number of trades or the amount per
437. 15:50trade to win it back. This is one of
438. 15:52the most common psychological traps
439. 15:53that occur during a market crash. You
440. 15:55see an unrealized loss of 1 million yen
441. 15:57in the morning. You panic and start
442. 15:59short-term trading. You lose on your
443. 16:01very first trade. Next, you try to
444. 16:03recover by doubling the amount. Because
445. 16:05the market is volatile, it moves even
446. 16:07further against you. In this scenario,
447. 16:09while the initial loss was due to a
448. 16:11market-wide drop, subsequent losses
449. 16:13occur because you increased the number
450. 16:15of your own decisions. Moreover, during
451. 16:17sharp moves, price swings are larger
452. 16:19than usual, and the spread between bid
453. 16:21and ask prices tends to widen. The more
454. 16:23you repeat short-term trades with the
455. 16:25same mindset as usual, the larger the
456. 16:27cost of a single misjudgment becomes.
457. 16:29Changing the investment policy you
458. 16:31initially decided on isn't inherently
459. 16:33bad. What is dangerous is when your
460. 16:35objective shifts to simply wanting to
461. 16:37recover your losses. At this moment,
462. 16:38the criteria for your decisions shift
463. 16:40from corporate value, supply and demand
464. 16:42, or interest rates to your own profit
465. 16:44and loss screen. During a market crash,
466. 16:46you shouldn't judge based on the amount
467. 16:48of loss, but rather look at what
468. 16:50underlying assumptions have changed. By
469. 16:52now, we have identified the downward
470. 16:54pressure on tomorrow's Nikkei and the
471. 16:56five behaviors that tend to amplify
472. 16:58losses during a sharp decline. However,
473. 17:01whether you should truly heighten your
474. 17:03vigilance at tomorrow's opening cannot
475. 17:05be decided by weekend figures alone.
476. 17:07Finally, in the first few minutes of
477. 17:09the morning, we will identify the key
478. 17:10points that distinguish a simple
479. 17:12gap-down from a chain-reaction sell-off
480. 17:14. Can you explain why you bought the
481. 17:16stocks you currently hold, and what has
482. 17:18changed since you bought them? When you
483. 17:21hold stocks, new information like
484. 17:23earnings reports and news comes out
485. 17:25week after week. Even if you see news,
486. 17:28it's not easy to judge for yourself
487. 17:30whether it's truly good news, how it
488. 17:32connects to earnings, or if it's
489. 17:34important enough to change your view of
490. 17:36the company. That is why, in the Salon
491. 17:38VIP plan, we have newly launched a
492. 17:40Growth Hypothesis Tracker. For featured
493. 17:43companies, we organize weekly earnings,
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496. 17:50impacts the company's growth hypothesis
497. 17:52. You will understand how to view the
498. 17:55company now, what has changed since
499. 17:57last time, and what to check next. We
500. 18:00keep past hypotheses as well, so you
501. 18:02can check the difference between your
502. 18:04assumptions at purchase and now.
503. 18:06Furthermore, in VIP, you can access
504. 18:08supply and demand analysis for 10
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511. 18:23have to chase all the public
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523. 18:49the description. Now, let's return to
524. 18:51the main topic. Finally, here is the
525. 18:53order to check things tomorrow morning.
526. 18:55The very first thing is crude oil. U.S.
527. 18:57crude oil rose by about 2%over the
528. 19:00weekend. Will this be maintained when
529. 19:03the markets reopen, or will the gains
530. 19:05be lost due to diplomatic news? Japan
531. 19:07is an energy-importing nation. Import
532. 19:09values in August increased by about 28%
533. 19:12from the previous month, with crude oil
534. 19:14imports also rising significantly. If
535. 19:17high oil prices persist, it will affect
536. 19:19not only the costs for Japanese
537. 19:20companies but also inflation and Bank
538. 19:22of Japan policy. Second is U.S.
539. 19:24interest rates. The yield on the 10-
540. 19:26year U.S. Treasury note was 5.18%on
541. 19:29Friday morning. If interest rates rise
542. 19:31again alongside oil prices, it will
543. 19:33create a double headwind for
544. 19:35high-priced semiconductor stocks.
545. 19:37Conversely, if interest rates remain
546. 19:39stable even as oil rises, the stock
547. 19:41market may see geopolitical risks as
548. 19:44limited. Third is the dollar-yen
549. 19:45exchange rate. The dollar-yen fell to
550. 19:48around 157.28 yen on Friday, shifting
551. 19:51toward a stronger yen. If the yen
552. 19:53strengthens further tomorrow morning,
553. 19:55it will put additional downward
554. 19:56pressure on export stocks and the
555. 19:58Nikkei average. On the other hand, if
556. 19:59the yen weakens back, the downward
557. 20:01pressure from foreign exchange will at
558. 20:03least ease. Fourth is the Bank of Japan
559. 20:05at 8:50 a.m. The "Summary of Opinions"
560. 20:07will be released at this time. Since
561. 20:09this comes right after the BOJ raised
562. 20:11rates to 0.25%, it is crucial to see
563. 20:13how they signal the timeline for the
564. 20:15next hike. A domestic interest rate
565. 20:17factor will be added to the market just
566. 20:19before it opens, shifting focus from
567. 20:21just risks. Fifth is not just the
568. 20:23Nikkei, but the TOPIX and the number of
569. 20:25advancing versus declining issues. The
570. 20:27Nikkei is heavily weighted toward tech
571. 20:29stocks, meaning specific high-priced
572. 20:31stocks can drive large movements in the
573. 20:33index. If the Nikkei drops sharply
574. 20:35while the TOPIX sees a smaller decline
575. 20:37and a decent number of stocks remain up
576. 20:39, it may not be a broad sell-off, but
577. 20:42rather concentrated selling in
578. 20:43semiconductors and high-priced stocks.
579. 20:47Conversely, if the Nikkei, TOPIX, banks
580. 20:49, and exporters all fall together and
581. 20:52declines spread across the market, it
582. 20:54becomes easier to judge that risk
583. 20:56aversion is intensifying. And September
584. 21:0028 is the final day for dividend rights
585. 21:02. We also need to watch how much
586. 21:05dividend-related demand provides
587. 21:06support. Even if tomorrow's decline is
588. 21:09limited, the 29th is the ex-dividend
589. 21:11date. If you look only at Monday's
590. 21:13closing price and conclude that
591. 21:15geopolitical risks have been fully
592. 21:17absorbed, you might easily confuse it
593. 21:18with the mechanical dividend drop the
594. 21:20next day. My assessment at this moment
595. 21:22is simple. With President Trump
596. 21:24rejecting an Iranian safe haven, hopes
597. 21:26for Middle East de-escalation that
598. 21:28lasted until Friday have receded. Wall
599. 21:30Street fell over the weekend, and crude
600. 21:32oil prices are rebounding. This acts as
601. 21:35downward pressure for tomorrow's Nikkei
602. 21:37. On the other hand, the weekend market
603. 21:40is different from weekday trading, and
604. 21:42the drop has remained under 1%.
605. 21:45Furthermore, we have end-of-September
606. 21:47dividend demand and BOJ data at 8:50 AM
607. 21:50. Therefore, what we should look at now
608. 21:52is not deciding whether a crash will
609. 21:54happen. It is whether these five
610. 21:56factors—crude oil, interest rates,
611. 21:59dollar-yen, the BOJ, and the
612. 22:00Nikkei-TOPIX spread—all align in the
613. 22:03same direction. When a decline occurs,
614. 22:05it is the second move, rather than the
615. 22:07initial price action, that makes the
616. 22:09difference. Selling everything at the
617. 22:10opening bell. Doubling down on margin.
618. 22:12Going all-in on a contrarian trade
619. 22:14based only on Sunday's moves. Ignoring
620. 22:17margin calls. Increasing trade
621. 22:19frequency to try and recoup losses.
622. 22:21These five actions are the easiest ways
623. 22:23to amplify your own losses when the
624. 22:25market is volatile. This video is for
625. 22:28informational purposes only and does
626. 22:30not recommend investing in any specific
627. 22:32stocks. If you found today's video
628. 22:35helpful, please give it a like and
629. 22:37subscribe to the channel. I will see
630. 22:40you in the next video.