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【5年で想像を超える】なぜ、世界中の投資家が〇〇を大量に購入しているのか…？｜『「日米中経済が壊れ始めている」という見方』が急速に広がっている異常事態を元ゴールドマンサックスが徹底解説 — Transcript

by おーちゃん【元外銀マン】 · 5,868 words · 913 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Hi everyone, it's Chan. In today’s
0:03video, I want to talk about how the
0:05third oil shock has truly begun, in a
0:07way that even Kako-chan from the next
0:09town over can understand. Yes, it's
0:11been a while. It’s our popular
0:13monthly series, the "Kako-chan from the
0:15next town" segment. I can almost feel
0:17the excitement of everyone in front of
0:19their screens from here. Looking at the
0:21current crude oil price chart, prices
0:23have surged past $ 100 again since
0:25entering September. I asked Kako-chan
0:27about it, and apparently, it’s all
0:28the talk at elementary schools in
0:30Minato Ward, with kids saying things
0:32like, "Isn't the price of oil crazy?"
0:33or "I heard the Saudi pipeline is shut
0:35down." For real? Honestly, some of you
0:37may understand how dangerous an oil
0:39shock is, while others may not remember
0:42just how bad it was, so let’s start
0:44with a quick review. During the first
0:47oil shock, between October 1973 and
0:49August 1974, crude oil prices
0:51quadrupled in ten months, and the S&P
0:54500 dropped for nearly half a year from
0:57its peak. In the second oil shock,
1:00between 1979 and 1981, oil prices
1:03tripled, and the S&P 500 fell by 27.1%.
1:08If we get into the specifics of why
1:10this happens, there are mountains of
1:12complicated factors like CPI and
1:14economic growth rates, but in short,
1:16the spike in oil prices led the entire
1:19global economy into chaos. Returning to
1:21the topic, I’d like you to look at
1:23the current crude oil chart I mentioned
1:25at the beginning; since entering
1:27September, prices have once again
1:28crossed the $ 100 mark. What we need to
1:31note here is that major overseas
1:33reports from firms like GS and Morgan
1:35Stanley suggest this $ 100 breakthrough
1:37might not be just a temporary spike;
1:39this sudden surge is completely
1:41different from the past and has the
1:43potential to fundamentally reshape the
1:46future of the global economy. If I say
1:48things like this, people will probably
1:49say I’m exaggerating, or that things
1:51will be fine eventually despite the
1:52current hype, or just tell me to give
1:53them profitable stock picks. I expect
1:55comments like that to come flying in,
1:56but for now, please have some green tea
1:58and calm down. It’s true that during
2:00the Iran conflict in March, prices
2:02briefly spiked past $ 100, but they
2:04later dropped back to the $ 60 range in
2:06July. Also, when Russia invaded Ukraine
2:09in 2022, there was a phase where it hit
2:11$ 120, but it settled back to the $ 60
2:14range in less than a year. In the first
2:16place, most of those oil price hikes
2:18were caused by war-related anxiety and
2:20temporary surges in demand. However,
2:22the current oil crisis is happening
2:24because the supply system simply cannot
2:26keep up, and there is almost no
2:27prospect of stable supply in the future
2:29. According to the reports from GS and
2:32Morgan Stanley that I mentioned briefly
2:34, it is said that there are almost no
2:35signs of recovery for this fuel
2:37shortage. In such a critical situation,
2:40there is a quiet rumor going around
2:42that a certain country might become our
2:44savior. I’ll give you the answer:
2:46it’s China. You might think, "China?
2:50That's nonsense," but please just sit
2:52down, stay calm, and listen. For those
2:54who watch regularly, you’ve heard
2:56this before, but I strive to be flat
2:58and neutral in my statements. I’ll
3:00explain in detail in the main part of
3:01the video, but it’s no exaggeration
3:03to say that the trump card China holds
3:05controls the future of the global
3:06economy. So, in this video, I will
3:08cover the true nature of China's hidden
3:10trump card and the massive impact of
3:11soaring oil prices on the global
3:13economy. I will also discuss how we, as
3:14individual investors, should prepare
3:16for this situation. I will provide a
3:17thorough explanation based on these
3:19three pillars. This may not be the
3:20video for those looking for quick tips
3:22to make money tomorrow, but I want to
3:24explain how to understand current news
3:26and global affairs, and how to grow
3:27your assets going forward. Please sit
3:29up straight, grab a pen and paper, and
3:31listen closely to what I have to say.
3:33Yes. I am a man in my 30s with this
3:35background, and my current weight is
3:38down to 89kg. I am developing villas in
3:41Niseko, Hokkaido. I have accounts on X
3:44and Instagram, so please be sure to
3:46follow me. I’ve been invited to
3:48various places recently, so it feels
3:50like I’m gradually expanding my range
3:52of activities. I also write books. They
3:54cover real estate and finance, so
3:56please pick up a copy at your local
3:58bookstore. As for my future goals, I
4:00want to help everyone grow their assets
4:02, and I am personally aiming to reach
4:04400,000 subscribers. This channel
4:06shares information based on my various
4:09experiences, and I also do live streams
4:11, so please check them out. With that
4:13said, I’d like to start by explaining
4:15a strange phenomenon currently
4:17occurring in global financial media.
4:19The European Central Bank (ECB), my
4:21former employer Goldman Sachs, and even
4:24major media outlets in various
4:25countries have all begun to make
4:27statements implying that China is what
4:30built the global economy. One major
4:32Irish newspaper even went so far as to
4:34write that China saved the world from a
4:36recession. You might be thinking, "No
4:38way, how on earth did China become the
4:40world's savior?" This is the same China
4:42that was constantly called the biggest
4:43risk factor to the global economy due
4:45to its real estate bubble burst just a
4:47little while ago, and the fact that
4:48financial elites, who were keeping a
4:50low profile just years ago, are now
4:51doing a complete about-face makes the
4:53situation feel suspicious. However,
4:55this isn't just a story about how the
4:56oil shock turned out to be lighter than
4:58expected. Behind the scenes of the
5:00world scrambling for crude oil due to
5:02the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,
5:04China was quietly executing a move—a
5:06move on such a scale that it may be
5:08shaking the flow of global money
5:10centered on oil and the dollar, or, to
5:12put it broadly, the economic order that
5:14has lasted since the postwar period.
5:17That move is this: at the very moment
5:19the whole world was starving for oil,
5:22China, the world's largest oil importer
5:24, significantly stopped buying it. You
5:27see, that's an import volume equivalent
5:29to about 30%of all the crude oil Japan
5:31imports—a truly massive scale. For a
5:33nation of 1.4 billion people whose
5:35factories, cities, and transport
5:37networks all run on oil, this would
5:38normally be considered an act of
5:40suicide. Yet China remains unfazed; in
5:42fact, this behavior has resulted in
5:44them effectively shaping the global
5:46economy. Overseas, some people have
5:49even taken to calling this "China's Oil
5:51Mystery." How were they able to do this
5:53, and what is China aiming for behind
5:55the scenes? Well, I will explain that
5:57in detail shortly. And let me be clear,
6:00this isn't just some power game between
6:02distant superpowers. It affects
6:03everyone, from long-term investors in
6:05the S&P 500 or All Country World Index
6:07to short-to-medium-term traders, and
6:09even those of us who hold assets and
6:11earn salaries in yen. Precisely because
6:13we have already experienced the pain of
6:15the oil shock through our own wallets
6:17—via gasoline and electricity bills
6:18—it matters. It is well worth knowing
6:20what is going on behind the scenes.
6:21First, let's start by organizing the
6:23numbers to see what the supply and
6:25demand balance actually looked like. We
6:26have covered the blockade of the Strait
6:28of Hormuz extensively in the news and
6:30on this channel, so most of you have
6:32likely seen it, but those who are
6:34already familiar can skip this section.
6:35However, this is the only place we will
6:37line up the numbers to show how the
6:39global ledger actually balanced out, so
6:40please bear with this review, as it
6:42will highlight just how abnormal
6:43China’s actions are later on. Before
6:45the blockade, global crude oil
6:47production was approximately 106
6:49million barrels per day, and
6:51consumption was nearly the same at 106
6:53million barrels. In other words, almost
6:55everything that was extracted was
6:56consumed within the same day, leaving
6:58us on a knife's edge with zero margin.
7:00Then, the blockade of the Strait of
7:02Hormuz hit, effectively cutting off
7:03about 20 million barrels per day that
7:05were supposed to reach the world. By
7:07simple calculation, that’s about 20%
7:09of the global supply. The warnings from
7:11the IMF about a global recession,
7:14fueled by claims of oil hitting $ 150
7:16or $ 200 a barrel and fears of grounded
7:19flights, were all based on this 20%gap.
7:21The world did not just stand by and
7:23watch. First, Saudi Arabia utilized its
7:26Petroline, a strategic cross-country
7:28pipeline, to move 7 million barrels a
7:31day to market while bypassing the
7:33Strait of Hormuz. Incidentally, this
7:35Petroline faced a preventive shutdown
7:37after an attack in September 2026, and
7:39the practice of relying on a single
7:41route remains a precarious balancing
7:43act even now. With this, the gap was
7:45reduced from 20 million to 13 million
7:47barrels per day. Next came the
7:49Strategic Petroleum Reserves, or SPR.
7:51These are the stockpiles that nations
7:53hold for emergency situations. In March
7:552026, to be precise. The IEA member
7:58nations decided on the largest
8:00coordinated release in the agency's 50-
8:02year history, totaling 400 million
8:04barrels. For context, the release
8:06during Russia’s 2022 invasion of
8:07Ukraine was about 180 million barrels,
8:09so this was more than double that
8:11amount. This further shrank the gap,
8:13bringing it down to under 10 million
8:14barrels per day. However, I want you to
8:16think about this calmly: dipping into
8:18savings has to end eventually, right?
8:20In fact, the U.S. SPR has dropped to
8:22its lowest level since the 1980s, and
8:24Japan’s reserves are also reported to
8:26have been drained to their lowest point
8:28in a decade. The emergency tanks were
8:30being emptied out with the intensity of
8:32a clearance sale. So, while it bought
8:34us some time, the general consensus at
8:37the time was that a recession was
8:38unavoidable. What shattered that
8:40consensus was China. Entering 2026,
8:42China’s crude oil imports suddenly
8:45began to visibly decline. The drop
8:47between January and May was nearly 30%
8:49on a monthly basis, and at one point,
8:51the cumulative decrease since February
8:53reached nearly 40%. Even looking at it
8:55on a quarterly basis, imports from
8:58April to June 2026 were roughly 3.5
9:00million barrels per day lower than the
9:02previous year. Well, Japan imports
9:04about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil
9:07per day, so as I said, 3.5 million
9:10barrels is more than Japan’s total
9:12daily imports. In other words, China
9:14has essentially erased the equivalent
9:16of Japan's entire oil demand from the
9:18world map in just a few months. Back in
9:20the early 2000s, China’s imports were
9:23around 1.5 million barrels a day, but
9:25over the last 20 years, that demand has
9:27ballooned to 11 million. Their
9:29factories, cities, and transportation
9:31all run on this imported oil, so why
9:33would they cut off 30%of their own
9:36lifeline while the whole world is
9:38scrambling for supply? This unnatural
9:40move is exactly why everyone is asking
9:43"why, why?" And half the answer to that
9:45mystery lies in their stockpiles. As
9:48for strategic reserves, the U.S. has
9:50about 413 million barrels, Japan has
9:53260 million, and European nations have
9:56180 million. If those numbers are too
9:58huge to grasp, just think of it as a
10:01rough "4-2-1" ratio, or maybe "4-2-2."
10:04Yes. That should give you a sense of it
10:05. Right. In contrast, China is
10:07estimated to hold about 1.4 billion.
10:10It’s Frieza-level stuff. Even if you
10:11add up the reserves of all the
10:12countries I just mentioned, they still
10:14don't come close. Now, for those of you
10:15thinking, "Wait, can you really trust
10:17the numbers China reports?" Your
10:19suspicion is spot on. Actually, China
10:20keeps the scale of its stockpiles a
10:22state secret and doesn't release
10:24official figures. This 1.4 billion
10:26barrel figure isn't from the Chinese
10:28government, but is a third-party
10:29estimate from the U.S. Energy
10:31Information Administration and private
10:33analysts, calculated by analyzing
10:35import-refining gaps and counting oil
10:37tank shadows from satellite imagery.
10:39What’s more, it’s said that China
10:41has been building underground storage
10:43facilities in recent years that
10:44satellites can’t track, so the actual
10:46stockpile could be even higher than
10:48this estimate. At the current pace of
10:50replacing 30%of imports with stockpiles
10:52, they have the stamina to continue for
10:54over a year by simple calculation,
10:55which is incomparable to other
10:57countries that started worrying about
10:58the bottom of their reserves after just
11:00a few months. In other words, that
11:02country quietly built up a massive
11:04reserve during peacetime without anyone
11:06knowing the exact amount, effectively
11:08creating the world's largest oil piggy
11:10bank. So, how did they build that piggy
11:12bank, and for what purpose? This is
11:14where we get to the core of today's
11:16topic. But before we get to that core,
11:18just one thing. So far, I've laid out
11:20the news figures of "imports down 30%"
11:22and "1.4 billion barrels in reserves"
11:23as global bookkeeping, but the process
11:25of rearranging and interpreting these
11:27numbers yourself is actually quite
11:29important. This isn't just about
11:30today's story regarding China; it's a
11:32topic that also relates to your own
11:34methods of asset formation. I'm going
11:35off on a tangent for a moment, but
11:37there's a super important concept: have
11:39you ever thought about non-linear
11:41changes? You might think it's sudden
11:42and random for me to bring this up
11:44after talking about China's oil
11:45reserves, but if you don't listen
11:47closely to what I'm about to say,
11:49you'll end up feeling like it didn't
11:50click or asking what it's all about.
11:52Because you might have that kind of
11:53reaction, please be sure to listen
11:55carefully. Well, it's the kind of
11:56content that will really resonate with
11:57those it's meant for. Those of you in
11:59the audience who watch this channel are
12:01, of course, likely making steady,
12:02monthly contributions. Some of you
12:04might mainly trade individual stocks,
12:06but this topic is relevant to everyone,
12:08whether you focus on individual stocks
12:10or are building assets steadily. So,
12:12first, let's organize the premises, as
12:14I believe this is the common,
12:16conventional approach to asset
12:17formation in the world today. The idea
12:19is that by contributing steadily every
12:21month, your assets grow little by
12:23little, and whether you're Buffett, a
12:25beginner, or anyone else, you're
12:27leveraging the equal asset of time.
12:29It's an incredibly serious and super
12:31correct way of thinking. As I’ve
12:32mentioned in past videos, dollar-cost
12:34averaging is a mechanism to stabilize
12:36this straight line. Beyond that, I’ve
12:38been saying that you should stop just
12:40accumulating and adopt an investor
12:42mindset that also considers offense.
12:44Now, let’s return to my earlier point
12:46about discontinuous change. It sounds
12:48like a grand term, but moments that
12:50change your life almost without
12:52exception occur at a single turning
12:54point, where things shift dramatically
12:56from that moment on. Like a sudden
12:58change in income, switching jobs, or a
13:00sharp increase in the speed at which
13:02your assets grow. It’s the kind of
13:03change that expands your life’s
13:05options. You might think this only
13:06applies to the specially gifted or a
13:08select few, but in reality,
13:09discontinuous change has happened in
13:11your life many times already. Taking
13:13entrance exams, starting a job, or
13:14changing careers—those are all
13:16examples. And the fact that you’re
13:18watching this video to grow your assets
13:20—isn't it because of a small "
13:21discontinuous" move you made in the
13:23past, when you watched a single YouTube
13:25video, overcame the fear of losing
13:26money, opened a brokerage account, and
13:28set up your investment plan? What they
13:30all have in common is that you believed
13:32in a single choice and turned it into a
13:34small action. It’s the song of small
13:35actions. Now, let’s talk about the
13:37biggest weakness of dollar-cost
13:39averaging. Accumulation does not create
13:41discontinuity. Even if you invest,
13:42increase your contributions, or keep it
13:44up for 10 years, your fundamental life
13:46position won't change that much. It’s
13:47perfect for defense, but it’s not an
13:49accelerator. So, what should you do
13:51next? Here, try changing just one
13:53question. "If this investment plan goes
13:55well, how will my life actually change?
13:56" Right. If you found yourself at a
13:58loss for words, that is your answer.
14:00Most people only think about how much
14:01they’ll have in the future, what the
14:03annual return is, or what things will
14:05look like in 20 years. But the next
14:06question you should consider is not
14:08that; it's which path to value you are
14:09aiming for. Many people who continue
14:11with their monthly investments have a
14:13strategy that ensures they don't lose
14:14or fail. However, I believe the most
14:16dangerous thing is not having a single
14:18path to value. I don't want you to
14:20misunderstand; "non-continuity" is not
14:22about a sudden turnaround or any kind
14:23of gambling. Non-continuity is
14:25something you aim to create, by
14:26choosing where to spend your time,
14:27where to focus your efforts, how to
14:29seek information, and what decisions to
14:30make. You need to gather all of this
14:32into one place. Well, long-term
14:33investing is an insurance policy to
14:35protect your life. That is undoubtedly
14:36true, but a life where you only have
14:38insurance and never take any risks is
14:39one where nothing truly happens. What I
14:41want to convey most today is that if
14:42you are going to continue investing,
14:44you must at least consider this. Where
14:45are you going to create your
14:47non-continuity? Continuing to invest
14:48without ever asking this question is
14:50the biggest waste. Since the answer
14:52varies from person to person, I won't
14:53give a specific one like "do this," but
14:55if I were to give you my own, it would
14:57be to reach a state where you can
14:59interpret the financial economy for
15:00yourself. As I have mentioned many
15:02times on this channel, it is a game of
15:03association. For example, the news that
15:05crude oil prices have topped $ 100
15:07again—this is happening right now.
15:09Most people would just stop at "gas
15:10prices are going up again." Well, if
15:12you connect the dots, it looks like
15:13this. Japan imports most of its energy,
15:15and payments are made in dollars. So,
15:17if crude oil prices rise, import costs
15:19swell, leading to more selling of yen
15:20to buy dollars, which could create
15:22downward pressure on the yen. If the
15:23yen weakens, import prices will rise
15:25further, creating a headwind for power
15:26and airline companies that use lots of
15:28fuel, while conversely acting as a
15:29tailwind for general trading companies
15:31that handle resources and shipping
15:32companies that transport oil.
15:34Furthermore, if prices continue to rise
15:35, the Bank of Japan will be forced to
15:36raise interest rates, which will affect
15:38long-term rates and eventually link
15:39back to mortgage rates. So, all from
15:41just one piece of news. You can
15:42identify industries with tailwinds and
15:44industries with headwinds. And you
15:45arrive at your own home with a single
15:47line. This is an association game.
15:48That’s the moment you become able to
15:50do this. What happens is, the news that
15:52flows in every day all turns into
15:53material for increasing your assets.
15:55Information you used to just pass by
15:57yesterday, you start to see the value
15:58in. Well, I think this is on a
16:00different level than increasing your
16:01monthly savings by 10,000 yen. This is
16:03a non-continuous leap created on
16:05purpose. Of course, the ability to
16:07interpret things doesn't come in a day.
16:08It requires building up, but the
16:10interesting thing is that the change in
16:12perspective happens in an instant. Once
16:14the associations connect in your head
16:15for the first time, the same news looks
16:17completely different. That is why this
16:19is a non-continuous leap. I regularly
16:21hold free study sessions to think about
16:23how to approach and interpret this
16:25association game, and currently about
16:273,000 people in total have participated
16:29. It's called the "10x Asset Roadmap,"
16:31and I really wanted to do it online. I
16:33hold it online so that people from all
16:35over the country can participate. For
16:36those who participate, I provide a PDF
16:38called "The Guide to Rapid Asset
16:40Formation." It covers topics like how
16:42to avoid being satisfied with just
16:44index funds, macro trends, and a
16:45roadmap from 1 million to 10 million
16:47yen in assets. It also includes a
16:49roadmap up to 100 million yen, and you
16:51can join via the link in the
16:53description or this QR code, so I would
16:55be happy if this could be a catalyst
16:57for your non-continuous leap. Changing
17:00your environment is really very
17:02important; I personally believe that
17:04life experience is essentially about
17:06how many surrogate experiences you can
17:08accumulate from others. By listening to
17:10various stories from different people,
17:12you can gain surrogate experiences,
17:14which turn into your own experience,
17:16and I believe that allows you to level
17:18up your stage. So, well, it's really
17:20important to always push yourself into
17:22situations that feel just a little bit
17:24challenging, so please, by all means,
17:26join us. Yes. With that said, let's get
17:29back to the topic. The world’s
17:30largest oil piggy bank, built secretly
17:33without anyone knowing its exact size.
17:35How was this built, and for what
17:37purpose? That is the main topic for
17:39today. To understand the "how," we need
17:41to grasp the relationship between oil
17:43and the dollar. For those of you who
17:45have watched every detail about dollar
17:47hegemony on this channel, this may be
17:48old news, but today we’re looking at
17:50it from the other side—the dollar
17:52from the perspective of oil—so it
17:54should offer more than just a review.
17:56There has been an implicit rule in
17:58global oil trading since the 1970s. It
18:01is an agreement that the United States
18:03made with Saudi Arabia. In exchange for
18:05Saudi Arabia selling oil exclusively in
18:07dollars, the U.S. provides them with
18:09military protection. Since Saudi Arabia
18:11was the largest producer at the time,
18:13once they adopted dollar settlement,
18:15other producers effectively had no
18:16choice but to follow suit. Countries
18:18around the world had to obtain dollars
18:20first just to buy the oil needed to
18:22keep their economies running. This is
18:24known as the petrodollar system, and as
18:26long as there are countries buying oil,
18:28demand for the dollar is generated
18:30eternally—a dream mechanism for the
18:32United States. And this system provides
18:34the U.S. with a powerful weapon. Large
18:36oil transactions, whether direct or
18:38indirect, always pass through the
18:40American financial system at some point
18:42. It's like a toll gate where they can
18:44inspect all the cargo passing through.
18:46So, it’s as if the physical oil
18:48market was created by Saudi Arabia,
18:50while the money market was created by
18:52the U.S. In other words, it’s a "
18:54bully" situation where the U.S. can
18:56shut a country out of the global oil
18:58market simply by blocking their access
19:00to dollars. In fact, in 1996, President
19:03Clinton signed a law sanctioning
19:05Iranian oil, and in 2022, a similar net
19:08was cast over Russian crude following
19:11the invasion of Ukraine. Two of the
19:13world's top ten mountainous nations,
19:15that is. It was made official from the
19:17ground up. No country could get ahead
19:19of the others to buy this cheap oil.
19:22Well, the moment they bought it, they'd
19:24be tracked by the dollar ledger and
19:25find themselves shut out. However,
19:28China built a bypass to circumvent this
19:30oil ledger entirely. They used two
19:32methods. The first is the so-called "
19:34dark fleet," a global network of
19:36tankers operating outside of
19:38regulations with hidden identities. The
19:40second was to simply use their own
19:42currency, the yuan, instead of the
19:44dollar for settlements. For Iran and
19:45Russia, who had lost their footing due
19:47to sanctions, having someone willing to
19:49buy in yuan since they couldn't use
19:51dollars was an ideal situation. Since
19:53these transactions don't pass through
19:55the U.S. financial system at all, they
19:57are effectively invisible and
19:58unstoppable by the U.S. Furthermore,
20:00since the sellers are in a weak
20:02position, it's said that China bought
20:04the oil at a 20%, or in some cases, 30%
20:06discount from market price. I'd like to
20:09summarize this for those who feel lost
20:11with all the talk of sanctions and
20:13tankers, wondering what the big deal is
20:15. That is the correct intuition to have
20:17. In short, it’s like this. Yes. The
20:20U.S. has dominated the oil market
20:22through the dollar ledger. China
20:23created a purchasing route that
20:25bypasses that ledger and kept buying
20:27oil that was starved by sanctions at
20:29bargain prices. The result is that
20:31stockpile of 1.4 billion barrels built
20:33up without anyone knowing; in other
20:35words, that piggy bank was built
20:37outside the dollar system. You don't
20:39need to memorize all the intricate
20:41mechanisms, but if you take away this
20:43one point, you'll be fine. So, for what
20:45purpose did China manage to accomplish
20:47two things at once by releasing these
20:49reserves and limiting imports? The
20:50first is the unveiling of a new weapon.
20:52In 1973, Arab oil-producing nations
20:55discovered that they could move the
20:57world simply by squeezing the oil
20:59supply. The so-called Arab oil strategy
21:01. Well, it triggered the oil shock,
21:03didn't it? A half-century later, China
21:05has actually gained that same power
21:06from the position of a consumer. Even
21:08though they don't drill much oil
21:10themselves, they can turn the faucet on
21:12and off whenever they like for over 3%
21:13of global oil demand, which is
21:15equivalent to the entire country of
21:16Japan, as I mentioned. It’s an oil
21:18weapon from the demand side, not the
21:20supply side. We can see this as a
21:23public demonstration of what the world
21:25has just witnessed. What’s more, the
21:27contrast was the United States—a
21:28country that has long claimed the role
21:30of global policeman protecting the free
21:32flow of oil—failed to control the
21:34situation during this critical juncture
21:36. The second point is even more
21:38significant. China is a country that
21:40controls about 30%of the world’s
21:42manufacturing. With the U.S. at 17%,
21:44the Eurozone at 15%, and Japan at 5%,
21:46they are the unrivaled factory of the
21:48world. And as a factory, their lifeline
21:51is the export market that buys what
21:53they produce. If this oil shock had
21:55truly escalated into a global recession
21:57, China would have lost a significant
21:59portion of its export markets. In other
22:01words, China restricting imports to
22:03ease global supply and demand wasn't
22:05out of goodwill; protecting their
22:07customers simply meant protecting
22:09themselves. So, regardless of the
22:11motive, the reality remains that China
22:14is seen as the one who actually helped
22:16during the crisis. After all, people
22:18remember those who helped them when
22:20times were tough. This is happening at
22:21a time when the U.S. is showing
22:23hostility toward its trading partners.
22:24In international relations, having a
22:26track record of being reliable during
22:27an emergency is worth many times more
22:29than any peacetime propaganda. By the
22:31way, some might react by saying they
22:32just cut back because crude oil was
22:34expensive, right? However, there is one
22:36thing that explanation doesn't cover.
22:38While analysts estimate China’s
22:40stockpile break-even line to be around
22:42$ 80 per barrel, even after the price
22:44of crude temporarily dipped below $ 80
22:46in August 2026, China didn't return to
22:49full imports and continued using their
22:51reserves. If it were just a matter of
22:53price, people would have rushed to buy
22:55when it got cheaper. The fact that they
22:56didn't suggests it’s more natural to
22:58think the objective isn't cost-cutting,
23:00but something else entirely. And there
23:02is only one judge in this world who can
23:04determine whether that objective is
23:06genuine or not. That, of course, is
23:08money. Yes. From here, let’s look at
23:11where global money has actually moved.
23:14As those of you who watch every corner
23:16of this channel's videos know, the most
23:18honest thermometer for measuring trust
23:20in a country is its government bond
23:22yields. When yields rise, it means
23:24investors are saying that if they are
23:26to lend to that country, they won't
23:27find it worthwhile unless a higher
23:29interest rate is added. In other words,
23:31a rise in yields is a decline in trust.
23:33That thermometer is currently showing
23:35some strange numbers. Ever since the
23:36oil shock, that is. The U.S. 10-year
23:38bond yield has risen to the mid-4%range
23:41, the U.K. to the high 4%range, Germany
23:43to around 3%, and even our own Japan
23:45has climbed to an unprecedented level
23:47in the mid-2%range. As I have
23:49repeatedly covered on this channel, the
23:51rise in Japanese government bond yields
23:53is an incredibly abnormal situation.
23:55The major nations are all being told to
23:58"add more interest if you want us to
24:00lend," but during the same period, only
24:02China's 10-year bond yield has
24:04conversely fallen, dropping to the high
24:071%range. China is now falling below the
24:09yields of major countries like the U.S.
24:11, U.K., Germany, and Japan—a
24:13structure that would have been
24:15unthinkable a few years ago. Please
24:17note that because yields fluctuate
24:18daily, the figures may be slightly
24:20different by the time you watch this
24:22video, so please understand this as a
24:24trend where China alone is dropping
24:25while others are rising. What does this
24:27mean? It suggests that someone,
24:29somewhere in the world, may be using
24:31their actual money to buy Chinese
24:32government bonds as a safe haven.
24:34We’ve learned to invest in a world
24:36where safe assets meant U.S. Treasuries
24:38, the dollar, or the yen, but the
24:40numbers the market is showing us now
24:42suggest that common wisdom may be
24:44starting to fray. Amidst the energy
24:46crisis, some capital has chosen China
24:49as a new safe haven. This isn't just
24:51someone's opinion; it is a fact
24:53revealed by the actual prices. Let’s
24:55break down what this means for us here
24:56in Japan. First, for long-term
24:58investors in the S&P 500 or All Country
25:00World Index, your foundational assets
25:02ultimately rest on the world's trust in
25:05the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.
25:06Today’s talk isn't saying that
25:08foundation will crumble tomorrow. Even
25:10if a seismic shift like the replacement
25:12of a reserve currency occurs, it is a
25:14process that spans decades. However, it
25:16is safe to say we have entered a phase
25:17where you should gently set aside the
25:19assumption that this foundation will be
25:20forever stable. Next, for those trading
25:22individual stocks for
25:23short-to-medium-term gains. As the flow
25:26of energy and capital reshapes, the
25:28business environment for Japanese
25:30sectors—like energy, trading houses
25:32handling resources, and shipping
25:34companies—will be swayed by every
25:36geopolitical move. While choosing
25:40specific stocks depends on your
25:41strategy and position size, looking
25:43beyond just oil prices to see who is
25:45buying which routes and in what
25:47currency will give you a deeper
25:49understanding of price movements. And
25:51what concerns everyone is the yen and
25:53the cost of living. Japan relies on
25:55imports for most of its energy, and
25:57much of that is settled in dollars. As
26:00the dollar-based oil order fluctuates,
26:02we will see more instances where
26:03exchange rates and crude oil prices
26:05become volatile simultaneously. Gas
26:07prices, electricity bills, and Japanese
26:09long-term interest rates that influence
26:11your home mortgage. The point is that
26:13today’s topic eventually reaches your
26:15home through these three channels. So,
26:18how should we prepare? I will wrap up
26:21with a checklist you can start using
26:23today. Let’s summarize the conclusion
26:25. China used the oil reserves it had
26:27secretly built up outside the dollar
26:29system to plug the gap during the oil
26:31shock, and in doing so, ended up saving
26:34the global economy. In the process,
26:36they demonstrated two things to the
26:37world: the ability to commoditize oil
26:39and the reliability of a trade partner
26:41in times of crisis. Money has reacted
26:43honestly; while government bonds of
26:44major nations are being sold off, only
26:46Chinese government bonds are being
26:48bought. Of course, this doesn't mean
26:49the era of the dollar will end starting
26:51tomorrow. The shift in global hegemony
26:53takes decades to unfold and is not
26:55determined by a single event. However,
26:57if you look at them side by side: an
26:59oil settlement network that bypasses
27:00the petrodollar is already in operation
27:02. It has been proven that one country
27:04can intentionally shift global supply
27:06and demand. And trust in government
27:07bonds is moving in opposite directions
27:09for major nations versus China. Since
27:13these three things are happening at
27:15once, we may be standing at a point
27:17that, looking back, might be called the
27:19turning point. Yes. "And that's when
27:23history moved"—that time is now.
27:25Don't you think it's safer for an
27:26investor to view the world with that
27:28mindset? With that in mind, there are
27:30three things we can start doing today.
27:32First, rethink asset diversification
27:34not just by stock, but by currency and
27:36region. Yes, a global strategy. Second,
27:39when checking oil prices, make it a
27:40habit to check not just the price, but
27:42which country is buying. And also look
27:44at the news regarding which currency is
27:45being used for the settlement as a set.
27:47Third, don't panic. A change in order
27:50is also a redistribution of
27:51opportunities. If you maintain a
27:53position size that won't be fatal
27:55during a period of shifting rules,
27:57these changes might actually turn into
27:59one of the few big waves for us
28:01individual investors. Yes. That was a
28:03pretty interesting topic again today.
28:05Yes. Crude oil prices and international
28:07yields fluctuate quite a bit, so the
28:09numbers might change by the time this
28:11video goes live, but I still found it
28:13very interesting. So, if you think
28:15China is the place to be, you can just
28:18stick with an all-country fund; or if
28:20you believe in the U.S., the S&P 500 is
28:22fine, and I think continuing your NISA
28:24contributions is still a good move. Yes
28:27. Right, about those turning points I
28:28mentioned earlier. Yes. "Non-attachment
28:31" is something I'm very conscious of in
28:33my own life; constantly changing your
28:35environment is really important. I was
28:40originally born in Hirakata, Osaka,
28:43then went abroad, where hearing various
28:45opinions and perspectives helped me
28:47mature significantly, and then I moved
28:49to Nishinomiya. From there, I moved to
28:55Kyoto, then Tokyo, and after Tokyo, I
28:57worked in places like New York and Hong
29:00Kong. Even though I’m mostly in Japan
29:04now, I have many international clients
29:06and hear from all sorts of people, so I
29:08think constantly putting yourself in
29:10new environments is the secret to never
29:12getting bored with life. Avoiding
29:16boredom is important, isn't it? Yes. I
29:19want to live happily and stay active,
29:21so with that mindset, I really hope to
29:23see you all at our study sessions. In
29:30October, we have a Money Training tour
29:32planned for San Diego in the U.S.,
29:34where we'll go together to discover new
29:36perspectives and learn about local
29:38investment methods, so please make sure
29:40to join us. Yes, so this video is not
29:45intended to recommend the purchase of
29:47any specific stock or specific
29:49financial product. Please remember that
29:51all investments are at your own risk.
29:53Thank you very much.

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This page contains the full transcript of 【5年で想像を超える】なぜ、世界中の投資家が〇〇を大量に購入しているのか…？｜『「日米中経済が壊れ始めている」という見方』が急速に広がっている異常事態を元ゴールドマンサックスが徹底解説 by おーちゃん【元外銀マン】, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 5,868 words across 913 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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