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(39-13, 75%) NFL Week 4 Best Bets & Player Props 2026 — Transcript

by Warren Sharp · 10,477 words · 1,473 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I'm Warren Sharp with Sharp Football
0:01Analysis and I'm pretty sure this has
0:03become your new favorite football
0:05podcast because if you love betting on
0:08football games and if you love breaking
0:10down those games ahead of time, you're
0:12in the right spot. We're going to be
0:14breaking down a ton of action for
0:16Saturday and Sunday. We're going to be
0:18bringing you some of our favorite bets
0:20from a variety of experts, including
0:22college football experts, referee
0:24experts, prop experts, and of course, my
0:27best bet of the week, college football.
0:30Here's what we got on tap for you this
0:32week. BYU versus TCU, Florida versus
0:36Missouri, Alabama versus Mississippi
0:38State. And on Sunday, we've got you
0:40covered with bets starting early in the
0:42morning. I hope that you guys are ready.
0:44Set your alarms because this is our
0:46first London game of the year. And of
0:48course, we've got a best bet from that
0:50game where the Commanders are taking on
0:52the Indianapolis Colts over in London.
0:55And in addition, we've got the Cowboys
0:58at the Texans, best bets from the Rams
1:00at the Eagles, the Cardinals at the
1:01Giants, the Jags at the Bengals, and the
1:04Falcons and the Saints on Monday Night
1:06Football. So, we got you covered from
1:08Saturday to early Sunday morning all the
1:10way through until Monday night. My best
1:13bets, yeah, they've been cooking so far
1:15this year. I'm now three and 0 on the
1:18season after going 1 and 0 last week.
1:20We're now 39 and 13 lifetime sharing
1:24best bets with you guys on this very
1:27podcast. So, hope that you guys are
1:28subscribed. Hope that you guys sit back,
1:31relax, and let's start talking about
1:32some of these best bets.
1:35[music]
1:38All right, guys. Welcome in. This is the
1:40best bets show and you know obviously we
1:42share the bets right and the bets have
1:45been very successful but I want to tell
1:47you that this show should be so much
1:49more than just the bets for you and I
1:51hope that you guys understand the level
1:54of work that we put into coming up with
1:56all the data to then get to the stage
1:59where we're ready to share some of these
2:01bets with you. We share so much of that
2:03data with you. We're trying to help you
2:05guys see what our process is in coming
2:07up with these recommendations. And as a
2:10result, you know, this is a show that
2:12you're going to learn a lot from. You're
2:13going to hopefully get bets that win and
2:15you can have success tailing them. But
2:17also hopefully you're learning about the
2:19process. You're learning about the
2:21teams, the coaches, the matchups, the
2:23players, and things that you can carry
2:25with you into other aspects of watching
2:28football. And so just make sure that you
2:30tune in and make sure that you
2:32subscribe. more importantly to the show
2:35every single week. We're going to be
2:37back with you all season long sharing
2:39these. We'll be back with you on Monday
2:41again breaking down all these games in
2:42the rearview mirror. It's going to be a
2:44ton of fun. Let's start talking about
2:46some of the key matchups that we're
2:48going to get here before we dive into
2:50the best bets. All right, one of the
2:52first keys to the weekend that you need
2:54to be aware of is you got Brian Flores,
2:56the defensive coordinator of the
2:58Minnesota Vikings going up against his
3:00former team, the Miami Dolphins. And
3:02this isn't just a coach going up against
3:04his former team. This coach actually has
3:07a lawsuit against the Miami Dolphins,
3:09right? I I guess it's a civil lawsuit,
3:12but he wants to take things criminally
3:14to this Miami Dolphins offense as much
3:16as possible. I can assure you of that.
3:19Just really take it out on Malik Willis
3:22and this offense of the Miami Dolphins
3:24on Sunday. And Brian Flores is a goblin
3:27in the most best way possible that I can
3:30imagine that word being used. Look at
3:32this graphic here that shows defensive
3:35pressure rate versus blitz rate on early
3:37downs. The first three quarters. Look at
3:39where Brian Flores defense sits. Well
3:42above 55 50% pressure rate there. Uh
3:46blitzing at well above 70% rate. Nobody
3:49else in the rest of the NFL is even
3:51close. And this is Brian Flores's first
3:54shot going up against the Miami Dolphins
3:57since they fired him. His Vikings
4:00defense ranks number one in blitz rate,
4:02as I showed, number one in sack rate
4:05overall on all downs, number two in
4:08pressure rate, but on early downs in the
4:10first three quarters when the game is in
4:11doubt, he is clearly the number one
4:14pressure rate team as well. So now he's
4:16going up against Malik Willis. Well,
4:17how's Malik Willis against the Blitz?
4:19Not very good, as you could probably
4:21guess. 43% completion rate against the
4:25Blitz. That's 30th in the NFL. He's been
4:27sacked on 25% of his pressures when he
4:31has been blitzed. That's 28th in the
4:33NFL. And here's the thing, he hasn't
4:35even played a team with an above average
4:38blitz rate so far this season. Now, he
4:41has to go up against the goblin mode
4:44blitzing team of the Minnesota Vikings,
4:46number one most in the NFL. and he has
4:49to do that without his number one wide
4:50receiver and without his number one
4:52running back. So, uh, this is going to
4:54be a challenge. And then in the second
4:56half, the second half of games is when
4:59kind of Minnesota like acts as a boa
5:01constrictor and really just chokes the
5:03life out of most of these offenses. When
5:06you look at what they tend to do, uh,
5:08they've been the best in the NFL at
5:09limiting second half points and the
5:13Dolphins have been among the worst
5:14scoring offenses in the second half of
5:17games. So, it it's really a strength
5:20versus weakness match up there when it
5:21gets to the second half. I'm really
5:24excited to just watch how creative and
5:27aggressive Brian Flores gets in terms of
5:29taking out some of his frustrations with
5:31the Dolphins on that offense on Sunday.
5:35[snorts] All right, topic two here.
5:37Second key of the week. Kirk Cousins
5:40going up against this Kansas City Chiefs
5:43defense needs to raise their play action
5:46rate. The Raiders need to raise their
5:47play action rate in this game. I got
5:49some graphics that are going to really
5:51paint the picture. Follow along with me
5:53here as we journey through this. Rich
5:55Reebar talked about this on the show
5:58that we published on Thursday, but I
6:01wanted to really dig deeper into this
6:03topic and I had planned to do that
6:05before I even knew that he was going to
6:06briefly mention it on our matchups show
6:08which comes out on Thursdays. Make sure
6:10you guys are subscribed so you can catch
6:11that. Here's the first graphic, and this
6:15will show you along the x-axis EPA per
6:18pass attempt when quarterbacks use play
6:20action. And you could see that the
6:22Raiders are all the way on the far
6:24right, number one in the NFL on early
6:26downs in the first three quarters. You
6:28might ask, and we've shared this before,
6:29but in case you're new around here, why
6:31would we use early downs in the first
6:33three quarters? Well, because teams
6:34don't use play action on third down, and
6:36teams aren't really going to use play
6:38action in the fourth quarter of a game,
6:39the first three quarters of the game.
6:41Not that they can't use it. They of
6:42course can use it, but the first three
6:44quarters of the game when it's in doubt,
6:46that's when play action is more likely
6:48to be utilized as part of the coaching
6:50intent and the game plan. And so we like
6:52to look at the first three quarters and
6:53only on early downs so we can get a
6:56usage versus not usage so that we're not
6:57throwing in third downs without play
6:59action into this blend. Um, and you can
7:02see the Raiders best in the NFL when
7:05using play action early downs, first
7:07three quarters, but EPA per attempt on
7:09that Y-axis when not using play action,
7:13they're well below the league average.
7:15In fact, they're like 26th when they
7:17don't use play action, but number one
7:20when they do use play action. Now, let's
7:22look at the Kansas City Chiefs defense.
7:24Next graphic. Kansas City Chiefs defense
7:27is the exact opposite. Once again, EPA
7:30per attempt with play action is on that
7:33X- axis, and this is the defensive view
7:36of it. So, if you're on the far right,
7:38you're really good against play action.
7:40But if you're over to the left, which
7:41you can see the Miami Dolphins way over
7:43there, those are the teams that are
7:44really bad. The Kansas City Chiefs are
7:47actually number 26
7:49when quarterbacks use play action
7:51against them. This pass defense is not
7:53very good against play action. But on
7:56that Y ais, the teams at the top are the
7:59best teams when quarterbacks don't use
8:01play action. And you can see top right,
8:03Baltimore Ravens defense. Great with and
8:05without play action. That defense is
8:07really good. The Kansas City Chiefs,
8:09they're number two in the NFL if you
8:11don't use play action against them, but
8:14like I said, they fall to number 26 when
8:16you do use play action against them. So,
8:19this cuts both ways in this game. On
8:22dropbacks that the Raiders do not use
8:24play action, their 26th ranked passing
8:27offense is going to go up against the
8:29number two ranked defense of the Kansas
8:31City Chiefs. That is a bad matchup for
8:33the Raiders passing attack. But when the
8:35Raiders do use play action, their number
8:38one ranked pass offense is going to go
8:40up against the Kansas City Chiefs number
8:4326 ranked pass defense. So, that's a
8:45massive edge for the Raiders. Huge swing
8:49when they do use play action. So, why am
8:52I even talking about this? Well, because
8:54hopefully the Raiders will watch this
8:56because look at this next graphic. You
8:59will see play action usage is along the
9:02X- axis. The teams that use it the most
9:04are off to the right. The Raiders use
9:07play action on early downs in the first
9:08three quarters at the third lowest rate
9:11in the NFL. Now, mind you, that y-axis
9:14shows you the EPA per attempt when they
9:16use it. They are the best in the NFL.
9:17They're at the very top of this chart.
9:19The best in the NFL when using it, but
9:21they use it at the third lowest rate.
9:24Considering how much of an advantage
9:26they will get in this game when they use
9:28it, and how much disadvantage they will
9:30get in this game when they don't use it,
9:31they absolutely must increase it. Kansas
9:34City versus play action allows a 76%
9:37completion rate, which is which is
9:39fourth worst in the NFL. 8.7 yards per
9:42attempt. And I already told you about
9:44their EPA per attempt. Without play
9:47action, that completion rate drops from
9:4976% all the way down to 55% completion
9:53rate allowed. That's the third lowest in
9:55the NFL. And their yards per attempt
9:58drops from 8.7 all the way down to 4.3,
10:01which is the lowest in the NFL. So, it's
10:04not just EPA, it's completion rate, it's
10:06yards per attempt. The Chiefs are elite.
10:09We're talking top of the NFL, top two to
10:12three in every single metric, EPA, yards
10:14per attempt, completion rate when teams
10:16don't use play action, but they fall
10:19massively to one of the worst defenses
10:20in the league when you do use play
10:23action. Kurt Cousins so far on the
10:25season when using play action. 19 of 26,
10:289.3 yards per attempt, and a league high
10:3119.2%
10:32touchdown rate. Fully smmens the picture
10:35here, why the Raiders need to lean into
10:37it. So, when you're watching this game
10:39on Sunday afternoon,
10:41pay close attention in the first half as
10:44to how often Kurt Cousins is dropping
10:46back with play action. And if they're
10:47not incorporating it enough early in the
10:50game, might be a situation where you
10:52want to look to the Chiefs because this
10:55is something that they will need to use
10:57at a high rate. If they don't use it,
11:00it's going to go the Chief's way from a
11:01passing perspective most likely. All
11:03right, one more topic before we get into
11:05our best bets. I just want to talk a
11:07little bit about Trevor versus time.
11:09You've heard about Tom versus time, the
11:10Tom Brady uh 30 on 30 or whatever that
11:14series was. This is a discussion about
11:17Trevor Lawrence and having time when he
11:19goes up against the Cincinnati Bengals
11:21pass defense on Sunday afternoon and
11:23what should be a great game. Two very
11:25competitive and very good offenses in
11:27the AFC between the AFC North and the
11:30AFC South. It's going to be a fun battle
11:32here. The Bengals blitz at the NFL's
11:34lowest rate and they have massive splits
11:37by d by down. And I want to show this
11:40graphic to you right now. This graphic
11:42looks at the pass protection efficiency
11:45of the offenses that the Cincinnati
11:48Bengals defense has gone up against.
11:51They've gone up against the offensive
11:53line and the quarterback play of the
11:55Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which ranks dead
11:57last right now in pass pro efficiency.
12:00the Houston Texans, which ranks 27th,
12:03and the Pittsburgh Steelers, which ranks
12:0422nd. All three teams 11th or worst in
12:08the NFL in terms of their ability to
12:10protect their quarterbacks and their
12:12quarterback's ability to pass the ball
12:14while avoiding pressure. Now, they're
12:16going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars
12:19offensive linequarterback tandem that
12:22ranks third best in pass protection
12:25efficiency. This is going to be a big
12:27shock to the system of the Cincinnati
12:29Bengals defense. And as I said, they
12:32blitz at the NFL's lower lowest rate and
12:34they have massive splits by down in
12:38terms of when they are able to get
12:39pressure against some of these teams
12:40that allow a lot of pressure. On early
12:43downs, they get pressure on just 25% of
12:46dropbacks, which is the 26th rate in the
12:49NFL. But on third down, they're getting
12:51pressure 59% of the time, which is the
12:54fourth highest rate in the NFL. Massive
12:57difference. And if Trevor Lawrence wants
13:00to have more success passing the
13:01football here, he needs to do so and try
13:04to up their passing rate potentially on
13:06early downs to try to bypass third down
13:08so they're not in these situations where
13:10the Bengals move from one of the lowest
13:12pressure rates in the league to one of
13:14the highest pressure rates of the league
13:15through some of the schemes, not more
13:17blitzing, but the schemes that the
13:20Cincinnati Bengals like to dial up with
13:21their defensive coordinator on third
13:23down to get pressure on some of these
13:25quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence has been
13:27pressured at the sixth lowest rate is
13:29pure pressure rate in the NFL. 31% of
13:32his drop backs. When the Cincinnati
13:34Bengals get pressure, they're allowing
13:37just 4.8 yards per attempt on opposing
13:40from opposing quarterbacks. When they
13:41don't get pressure, they're allowing 8.3
13:44yards per attempt. That's a huge
13:46difference with and without pressure. It
13:48drops them from number 11 all the way
13:50down to number 27. So, it's going to be
13:53very incumbent upon the Jacksonville
13:56Jaguars to figure out a way to pass the
13:58ball more on early downs and to avoid
14:00the pressure because the Cincinnati
14:02Bengals have massive splits whether they
14:04do or don't get pressure, but they're
14:05not going to send a lot of blitzing
14:07against Trevor Lawrence. He's going to
14:08be able to see and understand what's
14:10going on there with the defense. And
14:12because this offensive line has been
14:14very good at protecting him, it's going
14:16to be a shock to the system for the
14:18Cincinnati Bengals defense. All right,
14:20now it's time to welcome back Ryan
14:22Mcrist to talk about three of the
14:24biggest college football games of the
14:26weekend. I'm really looking forward to
14:28hearing what he has to say, specifically
14:30about the Florida Missouri game because
14:32I'm really intrigued by that one. But
14:34he's also got great nuggets on the BYU
14:36TCU game and Alabama at Mississippi
14:39State. Let's toss it to Ryan.
14:41>> BYU at TCU potentially big game in the
14:43Big 12. I think before the season, this
14:45was expected to be a potentially tough
14:48spot for BYU going on the road to take
14:50on TCU, who's been a competitive team
14:52within the conference over the past few
14:54years, but I'm not so sure this is going
14:56to be competitive. BYU is laying six and
14:58a half points here. I I still think
15:01they're going to be able to cover that.
15:02I think this could potentially be a
15:03blowout. And it has a lot to do with the
15:06changes to uh TCU's offense this year.
15:08They lost their offensive coordinator,
15:10Kendall Bryles. He left and went to
15:11South Carolina this off season. Sunny
15:13Dice decided to replace him with Gordon
15:15Samus, who had done a nice job as the
15:17offensive coordinator at Yukon under Jim
15:19Mora over the past few seasons, but it's
15:23a really drastic change in style.
15:25Kendall Bryles runs that veer and shoot
15:26offense. They play fast, get the ball
15:28out quickly, get the ball into space.
15:31Samus is running a very traditional pro
15:33style attack. And I wrote about this
15:35earlier in the year when TCU played
15:37against North Carolina. And I picked
15:38North Carolina in that game because
15:40despite what TCU did to North Carolina
15:42the previous year of just eviscerating
15:44them with Bryle's offense, the pro style
15:46offense played right into Bill Bichc's
15:49hands. He knows how to stop that style
15:51of offense. And it's kind of the same
15:53thing here with BYU. That that spread
15:56attack that get the ball out quickly
15:58that can be problematic at times for a
16:01slightly less athletic team like BYU.
16:04But if you're going to line up and just
16:05run the ball at them between the tackles
16:07and play this pro style attack, that's
16:09BYU's style. They love to face that kind
16:11of team. So I I think it's just that,
16:14you know, the style of play just creates
16:17a huge advantage for BYU, they are built
16:19to stop this type of offense. And on top
16:22of that, the reason why I think it could
16:23potentially get out of hand, I just
16:25don't think TCU's offense is very good
16:27even running the style of offense that
16:28they run. One stat I think that really
16:31highlights their struggles. TCU so far
16:33this season they rank 112th in third and
16:36long rate. There's 29% of their sets of
16:39downs are reaching a third and seven or
16:42worse situation. So they're not even
16:43executing this pro style offense very
16:45well so far. Now they're going up
16:47against a good defense in BYU. I think
16:49BYU cruises in this game. I do want to
16:51add one one piece to this equation with
16:54this conversation.
16:55I think this might be a good time to bet
16:57BYU to win the Big 12. They have the
17:00third shortest odds right now. Texas
17:03Tech is the heavy favorite as they have
17:05been since since odds were posted, you
17:08know, um at the end of last season.
17:10Texas Tech is not the same team as last
17:12year. They did add some more pieces to
17:14the portal, but they lost so much talent
17:17off of last year's team. And the
17:18defense, which really carried them
17:20through last season and made them such a
17:22heavy favorite throughout throughout
17:24last year, it's it's just not the same.
17:27They haven't been very good, especially
17:28against the run. The stat that really
17:31drives this home is Texas Tech ranks
17:33117th
17:34in explosive rush rate allowed this
17:37year. They're not winning the Big 12 if
17:40that keeps up. There's just too many
17:41teams in the conference that can run the
17:42ball. Most notably BYU. Now, they don't
17:45play BYU in the regular season, but if
17:47these two teams did meet up in the
17:48conference title game, based on how they
17:51look now, I'm absolutely picking BYU to
17:53win that game. And I even have doubts
17:55about Texas Tech getting there because
17:56there's just so many teams within the
17:58Big 12 that can run the ball. I think
18:00it's going to be really hard for Texas
18:02Tech to even get to that game unless
18:03they make some drastic improvements on
18:06defense and that's asking a lot. You
18:08know, we're almost at the midway point
18:09of the season. We kind of we're starting
18:11to get a sense of what these teams are
18:12and I'm just not sure Texas Tech is up
18:14for it. So, I think this is a good
18:16opportunity to beat BYU. If if you're
18:19interested, I would bet it before this
18:21game this weekend because if they blow
18:22out TCU, which I think is possible, I
18:25think that's going to catch some
18:26people's attention and uh shorten those
18:28odds even further. All right, Florida at
18:31Missouri. Another big game for Florida
18:32coming off that big win against Miss.
18:35They're giving five points on the road
18:36here. I think this line is smallalish,
18:40but because it just sort of looks like a
18:41letdown spot, similar to the one that
18:44Florida benefited from last weekend with
18:46Miss coming to town um fresh off that
18:50big win uh against LSU and Lane Kein the
18:53previous week. It was sort of the
18:55letdown spot for Miss. Florida benefited
18:57from that. Now Florida coming off that
18:59huge win against a ranked opponent. Now
19:01they go on the road as a road favorite.
19:04Potentially a tough spot, but I'm just
19:07not sure Missouri is up for it. Missouri
19:09is still ranked, so it kind of looks
19:11like a biggie on paper. I'm not sure why
19:13Missouri is ranked right now. They just
19:15don't look like as competitive a team as
19:17they have over the past few seasons. Eli
19:19Drinkquist does a nice job. I'm sure
19:20he'll have them prepared for this game.
19:22It's it's obviously a big game for them
19:24to prove themselves now that Florida
19:25has, you [snorts] know, established
19:27themselves as a threat within the SEC.
19:29But this really comes down to can
19:31Missouri stop Jaden Ba and I have some
19:35doubts. Now Missouri is creating a ton
19:37of contact at the line of scrimmage.
19:39Opposing running backs have been hit at
19:41or behind the line of scrimmage 51% of
19:43the time against Missouri. That might
19:45make you think, well, Jaden Ba's in for
19:46a tough day. He's going to be facing a
19:48lot of early contact. But Missouri's run
19:50defense overall hasn't been that great.
19:53And the reason is they rank 88th in
19:55opponent adjusted yards after contact
19:58allowed and they rank 127th in miss
20:02tackle rate against the run. That is the
20:04big red flag for this matchup in
20:07particular. They're going up against a
20:09225 lb running back in Jaden Ba,
20:12arguably the best running back in the
20:14country. Ball ranks 10th in the nation
20:16in broken tackle rate. So, he is
20:18definitely up for handling that early
20:20contact and exposing the weakness of
20:22Missouri and their inability to bring
20:24running backs down. So, I don't see
20:26Missouri containing BA. I think it could
20:28be a competitive game. Maybe maybe
20:30Florida gets off to a slow start because
20:31of the, you know, this is a let down
20:33spot. But ultimately, I just don't think
20:35that Missouri can stop Jaden B. I expect
20:37him to have a big day and carry Florida
20:39to the win. So, I'll take the Gator.
20:41I'll lay the five and a half points.
20:43Alabama at Mississippi State. Another
20:45huge game in the SEC. two of the most
20:48exciting young quarterbacks in the
20:49country in this matchup. Alabama's
20:51favored by six on the road. The fact
20:54that we have two young quarterbacks in
20:56this game, though, is the reason why I'm
20:58leaning towards Mississippi State in
20:59this matchup, and I'm willing to just to
21:02take the points and side with Kamario
21:03Taylor over Keon Russell. They're both
21:06super talented quarterbacks, but they're
21:07also extremely inexperienced. This will
21:10be the biggest game for both of them so
21:12far. So, the fact that it's at home for
21:14one of them, that alone kind of makes me
21:17want to side with Mississippi State just
21:19because we don't really know what we're
21:21going to get from these quarterbacks and
21:22these young quarterbacks in a tough
21:24spot. The one who's at home, the one
21:25who's not having to deal with the crowd
21:27noise is probably the one who's going to
21:29have a better game. Now, to get into the
21:31numbers a little bit, one of the reasons
21:33why I I think it's a good spot for
21:36Mississippi State's defense to create
21:38some problems for Kean Russell and
21:40Alabama's offense is Russell's been
21:42holding the ball for a long time now.
21:44Taylor does too, but again, he's in the
21:47home environment. It's more likely to
21:49affect Russell when he's holding the
21:50ball facing pressure in a loud road
21:53environment. I think it's going to give
21:54him some problems. Russell's holding the
21:56ball for at least two and a half
21:58seconds, 60% of the time so far this
22:00season. That's the 23rd highest rate.
22:03You don't want to be doing that in a
22:04tough road environment. You want to get
22:05the ball out quickly and avoid pressure.
22:08Alabama ranks 95th in opponent adjusted
22:10pressure rate allowed so far this
22:12season. Some of that is simply Russell
22:14holding the ball too long, but the
22:16offensive line has also not been great.
22:18I think Mississippi State, even though
22:19they don't have a great pass rush, just
22:21because Russell's holding the ball so
22:22long, they are going to be able to get
22:24to him and cause some problems with it
22:26being a tough road environment. I think
22:28that's likely to create a turnover or
22:30two. So, the fact that they're they're
22:32Alabama's laying six points. I'm going
22:35to side with the home team, Kamario
22:37Taylor. I think they're going to cover
22:39the spread, potentially win outright
22:40because of that home environment. Huge
22:42game for Mississippi State. It's been a
22:44while since they've hosted a game of
22:45this magnitude. probably not since Dak
22:47Prescott was there a decade ago. So, I'm
22:50gonna I'm gonna take the points here and
22:51play Mississippi State against the
22:53spread.
22:54>> All right, that was outstanding work as
22:56usual from Ryan. As a reminder, he has
22:58writeups with deep dives on all of these
23:00games over on the sharpootanalysis.com
23:02website. So, if you want more
23:04information from Ryan about the games he
23:06kind of touched on briefly or some of
23:08the deep dives into some other games,
23:10make sure you head over to
23:11sharpootanalysis.com.
23:13Check out all the writeups. After
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24:20guys, now it's time for one of my
24:21favorite parts of the show when I'm
24:23joined by Rich Reebar, loyal member of
24:26the Sharp Prop Squad, obviously our
24:28famous football connoisseur over at
24:31Sharp Football Analysis, the brain
24:33behind all of the worksheets that we do.
24:36and Rich, you've got another fun week of
24:38props. I've looked over your card. I
24:40think there's some great edges that
24:42you're attacking here. I'm excited to
24:44talk through all of these opportunities
24:46with you. We're going to start with a
24:49receiving yardage prop for a running
24:51back. It's a market that we tend to
24:53gravitate towards. We can pick and
24:55choose. We don't have to bet every
24:56single running back to have yardage, but
24:58there are certain matchups where it
24:59seems like it could be a good spot, and
25:01you've identified one here. We're going
25:03to look at Jeremiah Love of the Arizona
25:06Cardinals. His receiving yardage going
25:08up against the New York Giants right
25:10now. You can see that there are some 15
25:13and a halfs out there, but we also see
25:15this nice 14 and a half that we really
25:17like over here at FanDuel. You can also
25:19find it over here at Novig. So, there's
25:2114 and a halfs out there. Jeremiah Love
25:24receiving yardage. What do you like
25:26about this one and the edge that you
25:28find against this New York Giants
25:30defense? Yeah, uh he's hit this each of
25:33the last two weeks. Uh he's getting more
25:36playing time. We're seeing him ramp up.
25:37He was up to 63% of the snaps last week,
25:40obviously the, you know, over 20
25:42touches. Uh but particularly for the
25:44receiving work that he's getting, he's
25:46now run a route on 25.8%
25:49in week one of the drop backs to 38 12%
25:52in week two, up to 41.5% last week. So,
25:55he's getting ramped up more uh as a
25:57three-own player and as a receiver. and
25:59that him getting more routes matters
26:00because he's actually he's been targeted
26:02on 27% of his routes. That's the RB6 for
26:05the season. Uh so, you know, as those
26:07routes increase, you know, we're going
26:08to get a lot more opportunities in the
26:10pass game. The Giants have allowed 312
26:13and 22 receiving yards to running backs
26:15to open the year. And that's against
26:16Javvante Williams, uh the Rams running
26:18backs and Tony Pard. Like all guys that
26:20don't really earn targets. We did see
26:22Kairen earn targets on Sunday due to
26:24circumstances, but those are all low
26:26target rate running backs. So, uh, I do
26:28think that this one is set probably a
26:30little bit too low because we haven't
26:31really seen him play as a full-time
26:32player yet and books are trying to
26:34calibrate, you know, exactly where to
26:36like kind of line him in general,
26:39>> right? Yeah, absolutely. And that's the
26:41type of market that we love to attack
26:42when when they're unsure and we think
26:44that we have a better uh perspective on
26:47what might be happening for this
26:48upcoming game at least. Let's get ahead
26:50of the market a little bit. So, Jeremiah
26:52Love is number one. Number two, you're
26:54sticking in the receiving yardage market
26:56and you're going across the pond, as
26:58they say. We're going over to to the
27:01first game of the year in London. We're
27:03looking at Kyler Warren's receiving
27:04yardage against the Washington
27:06Commanders. And right now, there are 46
27:09and a halfs out here at a lot of books.
27:11Couple 47 and a halfs, but once again,
27:13we got a couple 46 and a halfs right
27:15here at minus 114. It looks like the
27:18best line that we're being able to uh
27:20see. Minus 111 in Novig. Let's look at
27:22Tyler Warren receiving yardage over 46
27:26and a half. What excites you about the
27:28matchup that he on the Colts is going to
27:30get catching the ball from Daniel Jones
27:32going up against this Washington
27:33Commander defense.
27:35>> Let's all have some reason to wake up uh
27:38on Sunday morning and watch this game.
27:40Uh you know, you look at Tyler Warren,
27:42he's he's playing a ton of snaps and
27:43getting regular targets. He's been on
27:45the field for 87% of the Colts drop
27:47backs. That's only behind Trey McBride
27:49amongst tight ends. He's the tight end
27:51for team target share at 23%. And this
27:54is a great spot, I think, to get him
27:55more usage downfield, too. We saw him
27:57get a little bit more last week against
27:58Houston. Uh the Washington Commanders
28:01are 29th in completion rate allowed.
28:02They're 27th in yards or pass attempt
28:04allowed. And what we particularly want
28:06to attack in this matchup before we get
28:08to the tight end stuff is that the
28:09Washington Commanders against play
28:11action uh have allowed a 73% completion
28:14rate. They've allowed 11 and a half
28:16yards for pass attempt, which is 31st in
28:18the NFL. Daniel Jones still fourth in
28:20the NFL in play action rate to open this
28:22season. Uh and then, you know,
28:23Washington has been crushed by tight
28:25ends, you know, allowing 10.1 yards per
28:27target to to tight ends as well. And
28:29those play action passes, Tyler Warren
28:31leads the team with 38% target share on
28:34play action passes. Washington also is
28:36not going to have Nick Cross in this
28:37game. He did not travel with the team to
28:39London. We'll see if linebacker Frankie
28:41Louvu is up. He did travel but missed
28:43last week's game. But in general, I
28:45think this is a really good spot for not
28:47just the tight end match up for Tyler
28:48Warren, but particularly attacking, you
28:50know, Washington on those play action
28:52targets.
28:53All right, play action. Obviously, a
28:55weak point there for the Commanders.
28:57Good opportunity. So, that's the logic
28:59behind that one. I love that. Here's
29:02another one that we're looking at an
29:04even higher number. We're moving from
29:06small, medium to large, right? We're
29:08moving up the up the scales here. I do
29:12save the biggest for the last, but I do
29:14want to ask you on those first two,
29:15Jeremiah Love, Tyler Warren, lading
29:18opportunities for both. What are your
29:19thoughts there? Let's start with Love
29:21first because you hit ladders. You hit
29:23the ladder up to 100 yards last week on
29:26the Garrett Wilson. That was ended up
29:28being our best bet as well. Uh you hit
29:30that up to 100. You've hit some of these
29:32other ladders that you've recommended. I
29:34know the Bo Nicks ladder you hit and the
29:36people love it when when they hear that
29:38you're recommending it on a ladder.
29:40They're going to join you in that and so
29:41we're never telling you what you think
29:43they should do. But what are you
29:45personally doing with Jeremiah Loves in
29:47terms of a ladder and then hit us with
29:49where you're going with Tyler Warren as
29:51well. The
29:51>> these ones I'd probably be a little more
29:53just on these numbers uh than than
29:56particularly chasing a ladder on these.
29:58uh you know with Tyler Warren maybe with
30:00the play action stuff you can maybe do
30:01like the longest catch or something but
30:03I just think that these are just you
30:05know solid uh totals that are just
30:07values.
30:08>> Yep. Yep. Okay. So let's see if you got
30:10one for the last one. And this one we're
30:13going back to a shootout that we should
30:15see this week. One of the higher totals
30:16on the board. Jacksonville Jaguars
30:18against the Cincinnati Bengals. And here
30:20we're going with Jamar Chase and his
30:23receiving yards over. Right now it looks
30:25like Rich, we're seeing the best lines
30:27are around 78 and a half. There are some
30:2979 and a halfs out there. Uh I know at
30:32some of the prediction markers you do
30:34like 80 plus. We're very close to that
30:36as well. So
30:37>> yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
30:38>> Jamar Chase over 78 and a half receiving
30:41yard, 79 and a half in that range. What
30:43are your thoughts on this matchup that
30:46he gets against the Jacksonville Jaguars
30:48secondary? the upside potential that he
30:51might have, whether it's the Bengals
30:53might not be able to run against that
30:54front, the Bengals have some edges in
30:56the secondary, Joe Burrow quick release.
31:00I'm sure there's a lot of different
31:01factors here that play into why you
31:03think besides just the fact that he's an
31:05absolute stud. He's going to go over
31:07this number,
31:08>> right? There's got to be good reasons to
31:10take numbers this high. I think we had
31:12one last year where I had an Aman Rah uh
31:15where we took it where was in the, you
31:16know, the mid70s. So, you got to be
31:18really bullish on the situation, and
31:19that's what I am here. Uh, we broke it
31:22this game down on the Matchups podcast,
31:24so definitely go check that out. But,
31:26just, you know, some some some loose
31:28peripheral uh breakdown here. I mean, it
31:30just comes down to that the Joe Burrow
31:33is the least pressured quarterback in
31:34the NFL. When the Jaguars don't get
31:36pressure on the opposing quarterbacks,
31:37they're 23rd in completion rate. They're
31:3930th in yards per pass attempt. They're
31:4029th in yards allowed per completion.
31:43Uh, and they haven't been pushed yet
31:45either. And the Cincinnati Bengals are
31:47second in the NFL in pass rate over
31:48expectation. All three teams to face the
31:50Jaguars to this point have actually
31:52thrown the ball at a lower rate than
31:53pass rate expectation. I think they're
31:55going to get pushed here. Also,
31:56Jacksonville uh to wide receivers
31:58allowing 9.8 yards per target to wide
32:00receivers. That's 28th in the NFL.
32:02They're allowing 16 and a half yards per
32:03catch to wide receivers. That's 30th.
32:05The only real good receiver they've
32:06faced so far is Jaylen Wadd, who had 138
32:09yards in week two against them. Uh
32:11Jacksonville has uh four cornerbacks
32:13that have had with 60 plus coverage
32:15snaps this season. All four of them have
32:17allowed at least 13 and a half yards per
32:19catch in coverage this season. You know,
32:21in this matchup last year with Jake
32:23Browning, Jamar Chase had 14 catches for
32:25165 yards. Uh and three of those
32:28quarterbacks in that game, Jordan Lewis,
32:30uh Jiren Jones, and Travis Hunter, all
32:32allowed catches. Jamar Chase. They're
32:34all active in this game as well. Uh this
32:36is one I would uh probably you know you
32:38know take up to triple digits and uh I
32:41don't know what the lines are. I haven't
32:42looked at this. I haven't scouted ahead
32:43and you probably don't get a ton of
32:45great value on here but you know
32:46potentially for Jamar Chase you know for
32:48week four to lead the league in
32:49receiving yards.
32:51>> Yeah I'm going to scroll down here. We I
32:53don't I can't pull that line up right
32:55now. Uh but I just want to real quick
32:56since I've got access to it look at a
32:58couple of the ladders you can do 100
33:00plus will pay basically 2:1 plus 198.
33:04Uh, you could do go up to like 110. Uh,
33:07what does that give us here? Two plus
33:10280. 110. I mean, we could we could keep
33:12climbing this ladder. Get get up to uh
33:15touch the sky. Uh, plus 337 on 120 plus.
33:19So, let's hit 125. Where are we at here?
33:22Plus 450 if you want to do 125 plus. So,
33:26upside here. uh obviously was able to
33:29have a lot of success last year without
33:31Joe Burrow as his quarterback in this
33:33very same matchup. And um we look for
33:35some good things to happen again this
33:37week in what looks to be great weather
33:39for the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the
33:42Jacksonville Jaguars and hopefully an
33:44entertaining, exciting, higher scoring
33:46and productive game for Jamar Chase. And
33:49that'll do it for Rich sharing his three
33:51favorite props of the week. We always
33:53appreciate you, Rich, joining us and
33:55good luck the rest of the week on all
33:57the other action that you've got out
33:58there.
33:59>> Good luck, everyone.
34:00>> All right, [snorts] now it's time for
34:02our favorite ref analyst here, Joe
34:04Gibbs, to break down three big games in
34:07the NFL where referees could play a
34:09factor. It's very important not just to
34:11understand the two teams that are going
34:13up against one another, but the third
34:15team that's on the field, the referees.
34:17What are their biases? What do they like
34:19to call? What do they don't like to
34:20call? Do they favor one particular thing
34:23or another? Let's hear from Joe on three
34:25big games. Cowboys at Texans, Rams at
34:28Eagles, and Falcons at Saints on Monday
34:30Night Football.
34:32Okay, Cowboys at the Texans, Brad Allen,
34:35the referee. Home teams over the past
34:37decade, 8560 and one straight up with
34:40Brad Allen, 59% 52% against the spread
34:43in those same contests. Home teams this
34:45year, 2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the
34:48spread with Brad Allen. Uh Allen
34:50currently ranks third in penalty per
34:52game average. Two areas that they've
34:54placed a major emphasis on roughing the
34:56passer and unnecessary roughness. They
34:58rank top three per game in both
35:00categories. The Texans currently rank as
35:02the number one beneficiary of automatic
35:05first downs via penalty. Uh the biggest
35:08driver of that is defensive holding.
35:10They ranked number one in that category
35:11last year and they ranked number one
35:13after 3 weeks this season. The Cowboys
35:15co-ranked number two as a beneficiary of
35:18automatic first downs via penalty
35:20primarily via defensive pass
35:22interference and again they ranked
35:23number one in that last year ranked
35:25number one in that again this season. So
35:27the Cowboys when you factor in
35:30beneficiary and then also surrendering
35:32automatic first downs on the defensive
35:33side their games have had more automatic
35:36first downs than any other team this
35:38season. So, you can kind of see where
35:40I'm going with this in that you've got
35:42an Allen crew that is so far this season
35:45predisposed to calling more penalties
35:47than most and then you have two teams
35:48where there's a huge variance in in the
35:51penalties where the volatility is really
35:53off the charts in this game. So, it's
35:56going to be interesting. Uh Allen is 2
35:58and one to the over this season and his
36:01games are averaging a league high 65
36:03points. Now, I'm not suggesting this
36:05game is going to reach 65 points.
36:07However, I do like the over. It's a a
36:10reasonable number in the high 40s, 47
36:12and a half, 48. So, you've got a Cowboys
36:15offense that when it's healthy is
36:17clicking on all cylinders. You got to
36:19assume they're they're going to get in
36:20that 23 24 range. The Texans offense is
36:23a concern,
36:24but if they can't get it going and
36:26basically got to have a game this week
36:28at home against this Cowboys defense,
36:31there's going to be some serious
36:33questions asked about the coaching
36:34staff, the quarterback, the whole thing.
36:36So, it's an all hands-on deck sort of
36:38game. Doesn't matter who's in, who's
36:40out. They've got to get points against
36:42this defense. And, like I said, a
36:43must-win game at home. You go 0 and4,
36:45you're probably done. So, from a side
36:48perspective, look, I have some issues
36:49with both teams, but only one team is
36:52getting points, and that's the Dallas
36:53Cowboys. So, only a small underdog, but
36:56when in doubt, you take the points. And
36:57so, I lean to the Cowboys here in this
37:00game, but primarily, I do like the over.
37:03Uh, I think we're going to get a Lone
37:05Star State Shootout Sunday and Cowboys
37:08in the over the play. Okay, Rams at the
37:11Eagles. Craig Rollstead, the referee.
37:13Philadelphia in the Sriani Herz era, 3-2
37:16with Rollstead. However, home underdogs
37:18over the past decade just 2645 and two
37:22against the spread, 37% with Craig Roll
37:25officiating. So, Eagles are the underdog
37:27this Sunday. Uh areas of focus roll
37:30stats crew 50% of their penalties are
37:32being assessed in just two categories
37:34offensive holding and false start. So
37:36the league average in that is 41.5%.
37:39This looms as a potential issue for the
37:41Eagles. Uh top five penalized offense
37:44for offensive holding. Their defense is
37:46just not getting home this this season
37:48at least so far. And they're one of the
37:51worst teams at generating those
37:53beneficial uh calls offensive holding on
37:55the opposing team. So when you actually
37:57you factor in the four and against uh
37:59the Eagles actually have the worst
38:00overall net negative offensive holding
38:03uh statistics through three weeks of the
38:06season. So that's that's a departure
38:08from the last few years and they're
38:09coming up against a Rams offense that is
38:11generally extremely disciplined and not
38:14prone to making those mistakes. So
38:15that's advantage Rams in that category.
38:18uh first and second down 75% of roll
38:21stats penalties which is above average
38:23on the offensive side of the ball on
38:25first and second down. So you know you
38:27get behind the chains and then all of a
38:29sudden you got third and longs that type
38:31of thing. So third down it's a pretty
38:32even split 50/50 offense defense which
38:34is around league average. So keep those
38:36in mind. the Rams. There's no love lost
38:39between the Rams and Roll Stad and the
38:41Rams fan base in Rollad. You know,
38:43there's been some issues with games that
38:45he's officiated of theirs over the
38:46years. And so, this comes in off the
38:48back of last week with Bill Vinovich,
38:50and we saw what what unfolded down the
38:52stretch there. So, you know, you go from
38:54that game in Denver over to Philly,
38:56which seemingly is an annual game
38:58between these two teams, and the Eagles
39:00have had the Rams number for however
39:02many seasons it's been now. So, this has
39:04really been a team that for whatever
39:06reason the Rams just can't get over the
39:08hump.
39:09This is really one of those games. It's
39:11a decision season defining game for the
39:13Rams to me. You know, they're one and
39:15two right now, which is a little bit
39:16misleading. You can throw the Australia
39:17game out the window. That was a you
39:19know, whatever. Uh they beat the Giants.
39:21They got frankly they got robbed last
39:23week. They should have won the game.
39:24They didn't. So, bottom line is they're
39:261 and2. They get to go to Philly this
39:28Sunday. they get to exercise the demons
39:32versus a team that for whatever reason
39:33they just can't beat with a referee that
39:36they've had some bad blood with over the
39:38years in Craig Rollstead. So
39:41my gut says the Eagles rise up after
39:42Monday night's debacle, but to me the
39:45offense something's not right
39:47structurally within the team. The
39:48chemistry, I don't know, cuz it doesn't
39:50look any different to what we saw last
39:51year, at least after three games. So
39:53look, maybe my gut's right and they do
39:55rise up and we're we all forget about
39:57Monday night, but maybe there is
39:59actually a problem there. So for that
40:00reason, I like the Rams. The record's
40:03misleading. They're the better team.
40:05This is a chance for them to really get
40:07the season back on the right track and
40:09again beat the Eagles and beat him with
40:12Rollstead officiating Rams minus three
40:14at the Eagles on Sunday. Okay, Falcons
40:17at the Saints Monday Night Football Land
40:19Clark the referee. So divisional home
40:21teams in Clark's career 1218 and one
40:24straight up. That includes 0 and1
40:26straight up in 2026.
40:28So there's the starting point right
40:29there. Favorites are currently 0 and3
40:32against the spread with Lan Clark in
40:342026. The Saints are a small favorite in
40:36this contest. Some areas of focus. So
40:39Clark's crew currently after three games
40:4165% of their penalties on the offensive
40:44side of the ball. That leads the league
40:46in that category. uh 75% of their
40:49penalties on third down are on the
40:50offense. Again, that leads the league in
40:52that category on third down offensive
40:54penalties and those have contributed in
40:57part to a 3-0 under record from Landon
41:00Clark's crew this season. They have the
41:02lowest point per game average, 28 points
41:05per game. So, those are some numbers to
41:07keep in mind. Uh both offenses,
41:11the the Saints are mid tier. The Falcons
41:13are quite disciplined at least so far,
41:15which is quite surprising given that
41:17they've, you know, had backup
41:18quarterbacks to start the season. Uh the
41:21game itself, look, the Falcons, they
41:25turned things around at the Packers
41:27what, 11 days ago, thereabouts. Um
41:30everything kind of lines up for them
41:32here. They've come off a mini buy. They
41:34have panics now with a game under his
41:35belt. They kind of got their mojo going
41:37up at Green Bay. They get a chance now
41:40to go into New Orleans and really just
41:42reset their season, get to 500, a big
41:45divisional win on the road. Now, that
41:47may be easier this easier said than done
41:49because the Falcons are a hard team to
41:52trust to put backto back quality prime
41:54time games together or even just
41:56back-to-back quality games together over
41:58what we've seen the last few years. Um,
42:00Saints, look, a lot of people are hiring
42:02them. I think maybe they're a little bit
42:04overrated, but they're still a quality
42:06team. They still got some good players
42:08and that place is going to be rocking on
42:10Monday night. You know, all the emotion
42:11of the 20-y year anniversary of
42:13Hurricane Katrina and everything that
42:14goes with it. So, I'm a little a little
42:17wary of of siding with the Falcons here.
42:20But, look, there's no doubt they have
42:22the offensive pieces to be one of the
42:24better teams in the league. Uh, and we
42:26saw that against Green Bay. So, maybe
42:28[snorts] it's a leap of faith on my
42:29part, but I do like the Falcons here as
42:32a small underdog. Um, it's going to be
42:35one of those sort of down tothe-wire
42:36games. I think. And again, the Falcons
42:39plus the points at the Saints on Monday
42:41Night Football.
42:42>> All right, that was an awesome breakdown
42:44from Joe as we've come to expect.
42:46Looking forward to all three of those
42:48games this weekend. Before we get into
42:50my best bet of the week, a quick shout
42:51out to our partners at OddJam. If you're
42:53betting this season, getting the best
42:55number on every bet matters. You see
42:56their odds screen on every one of these
42:58shows. Odds Jam shows you real-time
43:01lines at every sports book, so you can
43:03lock in all of your bets at the best
43:04possible value. If you want to test out
43:06OddsJam, click the link in the
43:08description of the show and use code
43:10Warren to get a free week trial. And if
43:12you stay on board, that code gets you
43:1540% off your first month. Now, let's get
43:17to my best bet of the week. All right,
43:19guys. I make it a point to stack a lot
43:23of great experts before we get to the
43:24best bet because you're going to want to
43:26make all those bets that they are
43:28recommending. A lot of plus EV thoughts
43:30and strategies and ideas shared before
43:33we get to this point in time. So, I hope
43:35none of you guys just come right to this
43:37point, but we are an outstanding 39 and3
43:42lifetime on this podcast. That is 75%
43:45winners, 1 and0 last week, 3 and 0 on
43:48the season. And last week, I even gave
43:50you guys a bonus bet that also won. If
43:54you guys want me to do that a little bit
43:55more often in the future, I need two
43:57things from you. Number one, most of you
43:59guys aren't even subscribed. They just
44:01watch this when it comes up in your
44:02feed. Make sure you hit that subscribe
44:04button. We need to raise that subscriber
44:05count. And number two, make sure you
44:07give us a thumbs up and ask for these in
44:10the comments down below. We'll try to
44:12maybe work in an extra bonus bet, but we
44:16gave you one already so far this year
44:18and we won that. So, undefeated bonus
44:20bets as well this season. So, here we
44:23go. What do we like this week? The best
44:26bet for week four, we'll turn to the
44:28receiving yards market and we're gonna
44:30go to Christian McCaffry's receiving
44:32yards
44:34right now going up against the Denver
44:36Broncos.
44:3837 a half at multiple spots at minus 115
44:41to the over. There are a couple 38 and a
44:44halfs out there. I'm fine in either way,
44:47shape or form. He's had over 40 in the
44:50last two games. We'll talk about those
44:52momentarily, but certainly seeing 37
44:551.5s here at multiple spots at minus
44:57115. I don't recommend laying minus 140
45:00to get 35 and a half. Uh, perfectly fine
45:04with the 37 and a half. So, let's break
45:06down why I like Christian McCaffry's
45:08receiving yardage over. And by the way,
45:11there is another best bet that I
45:15absolutely loved. I was trying to figure
45:17out, talked to a lot of different people
45:19between overnight and the wee hours in
45:20the morning last night, early this
45:22morning before recording the show about
45:24which way to go here. So, there's
45:26another one that I really like that we
45:28are going to go very strong on for subs,
45:30but this is the ultimate one that we
45:32settled on for the best bet for the
45:34Sharp Football Analysis show, which I
45:37take a lot of pride in. Obviously, as
45:39you guys know, I want to talk about
45:42blitz rates,
45:44specifically the blitz rate of the
45:46Denver Broncos. And I want to pop up the
45:49first graphic on the screen here. And in
45:52the top right quadrant is the Denver
45:55Broncos logo. No, they're not Goblin
45:57Mode Brian Flores at the top top right
45:59quadrant, but they are there as one of
46:02the highest blitz rates, which is on the
46:04Y ais in the NFL. and they also bring
46:06one of the highest pressure rates in the
46:08NFL, which is why they're off to the
46:09right as well. I want you to take a look
46:12at a couple of the other teams that are
46:14in that bottom left hand quadrant,
46:17specifically the Miami Dolphins logo,
46:19which stands out alone as one of the
46:21lower blitz rates in the league and one
46:22of the worst pressure rates in the
46:24league. And not too far to the right and
46:27actually blitzing a little bit less
46:28often than the Dolphins, you can find
46:30the Arizona Cardinals logo if you look
46:32close enough, which is right above that
46:33Tennessee Titans light blue logo. Both
46:36of these teams are the two most recent
46:38teams that the San Francisco 49ers have
46:40played. They do not blitz a lot and they
46:42do not get a lot of pressure. The Denver
46:44Broncos clearly blitzing a lot more
46:48often, one of the highest rates in the
46:49NFL. And if we pop up this next graphic,
46:52I want to show you this next graphic is
46:54early down blitz rate alone. And the
46:57Denver Broncos ranked number two.
46:58They're the second highest team on the
47:00chart on the Y ais. Number two highest
47:04blitz rate on early downs, first and
47:06second down. Look down at the bottom of
47:09this and you can once again see the
47:11Arizona Cardinals down there in the
47:13bottom left quadrant. The Miami Dolphins
47:15are also down there. You have to hunt
47:17for their logo a little bit more. You'll
47:18also might see the LA Rams, surprisingly
47:21enough, right near the Arizona Cardinals
47:23with a below average blitz rate, well
47:25below average blitz rate in fact, and a
47:27below average pressure rate on early
47:30downs
47:32for passing the football. And the
47:35Broncos ranked number two in blitz rate.
47:37And the reason we're talking about blitz
47:38rate is because of this next statistic
47:40that I'm going to share with you. If
47:42Christian McCaffrey is on the field,
47:45Brock Perie versus first down blitzes
47:47has a 40% running back target rate this
47:50year, 39% since the start of 2025. First
47:55down passes.
47:57If he's not being blitzed on first down,
47:59his first down target rate to running
48:01backs this year drops from 40% all the
48:03way down to 19% and from 39% since the
48:07start of last year all the way down to
48:0927% since the start of last year. Now,
48:12if you look at not just first downs, but
48:13now early downs, both first and second
48:16down, if Christian McAffrey is on the
48:18field, Brock Pery's early down blitz uh
48:22running back target rate when blitzed on
48:24early downs is 40% since the start of
48:272025, but that drops all the way down to
48:3032% if he's not being blitzed. And we
48:33just saw that the last two teams that
48:36he's played, the Miami Dolphins and the
48:38Arizona Cardinals,
48:40they don't blitz a lot at all. Well
48:42below average. Now they're going up
48:43against the number two highest blitz
48:45rate team in the NFL. Every little
48:48percentage point is going to make a
48:49difference here in the odds that we're
48:51going to see Brock Pury throw the ball
48:53to Christian McCaffrey. And why might
48:54they be doing that? Trying to punish the
48:56opposing defense. Some teams, you got to
48:58look at these uh statistics, they don't
49:01like to throw the ball to their running
49:02backs when they're blitzed. The running
49:03backs stay in, they pick up uh they pick
49:06up the protection, and they tend to work
49:08as a pass protection. And other guys are
49:10the safety valves and alerts on blitzes.
49:13But the San Francisco 49ers, they're
49:14looking to punish those blitzers, get
49:16the ball out quickly, make the blitzers
49:18run past them, and then let Christian
49:19McCaffy work in space and have success
49:22against the second level defenders in
49:24space with the football when teams blitz
49:26them. That could definitely pay
49:29dividends here against a defense like
49:31the Denver Broncos who send blitzes at
49:33the second highest rate in the NFL.
49:36Christian McCaffrey already went over
49:37these numbers. said 37 and a half
49:40already hit over 40 plus in both of the
49:43games against the uh last two weeks, the
49:47uh Miami Dolphins and the Arizona
49:49Cardinals. The other thing that those
49:51two games have in common with the first
49:53game of the year against LA Rams is that
49:55all three were blowouts at one stage and
49:58and a couple of them ended as blowouts
50:00in favor of the San Francisco 49ers. you
50:02don't need to throw the ball very much
50:04to your running backs in the third and
50:06fourth quarter when you're up by 20 plus
50:08points, which was the case against teams
50:10like the Dolphins and the the Rams in
50:12week one as well over in Australia, in
50:15addition to having a nice lead before
50:17the Cardinals scored a couple late
50:19touchdowns to make that game a little
50:21bit more reasonable and respectable from
50:22a final score perspective. Uh, but
50:25Christian McCaffrey might need to be
50:27targeted a little bit more in this game
50:29as a result of the game state going up
50:31against the Denver Broncos. If the
50:33Denver Broncos offense is clicking
50:35against this defense of the San
50:36Francisco 49ers, which is certainly
50:38beaten and battered, you might need to
50:41throw the football a little bit more to
50:42your running back. And then I didn't
50:44even mention one of the big keys that
50:45most people probably would have think of
50:47when they think of Christian McCaffrey
50:48receiving yards for this game. Uh,
50:50that's not even like top of my priority
50:53list, but look at the health of the
50:54receiving core for the San Francisco
50:5649ers. We don't yet know if Mike Evans
50:58is going to play. If he is cleared to
51:00play and he's playing, does he actually
51:01play the whole game? Is he healthy to
51:04run all the routes that he normally
51:06would? Is Brock Perie going to look his
51:07way as often as he normally would or is
51:10Mike Evans somewhat limited and then
51:12you're it's easier to cover him. going
51:14up against a difficult matchup with
51:15Patrick Certain who could take away the
51:18outside perimeter receivers there. So
51:20you might need to funnel targets to your
51:23running backs a little bit more
51:24frequently against the Denver Broncos
51:26who are surrendering above average yards
51:29per attempt to running back passes on
51:31the season. So, we just saw, I believe
51:34last week, Kyle Shanahan's, one of his
51:37best friends in the NFL, Shawn McVey.
51:39They threw the ball to Kairen Williams.
51:41I want to say eight targets, seven
51:43receptions for like 70 yards last week.
51:47Now, that's a team that doesn't target
51:48their running back nearly the rate that
51:50the San Francisco 49ers. And I'm sure
51:52that Shawn McVey, the Kyle Shanahan was
51:55watching that film, saw what Shawn McVey
51:57was doing with Kairen Williams in the
51:59receiving game and might try to double
52:01down on that even further with Christian
52:03McCaffrey here. So, I like this one.
52:06It's the best bet of the week. Christian
52:07McCaffrey receiving yards over 37 and a
52:10half. Let's try to get it done and
52:12improve to 4-0. And that'll do it for
52:15the week four edition of the Sharp
52:16Football Analysis betting show. The
52:19fastest growing football analysis show
52:21on the planet. I hope that you guys are
52:24subscribed so that you never miss one of
52:25these in the future. Tune in on Monday
52:28where we break down the reaction to all
52:30of these week four games and preview
52:32Monday Night Football with some more
52:34best bets from another betting analyst
52:36who will bring on on Monday to preview
52:39that big Monday Night Football game
52:40between the Falcons and the Saints. We
52:42already have a best bet on that game
52:44from Rich. We'll see what we cook up
52:45here for you guys on Monday. I'm looking
52:47forward to that already. But let's enjoy
52:49this weekend. Be thankful that we got a
52:52great weekend of football both Saturday
52:53and Sunday. Hope you guys enjoy the
52:55games and we'll see you again

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