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(38-13, 75%) NFL Week 3 Best Bets & Player Props 2026 — Transcript

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0:00I'm Warren Sharp of Sharp Football
0:01Analysis and I'm pretty sure this has
0:03become your new favorite sports betting
0:06podcast. We've got a ton of great games
0:09to break down and some best bets in
0:10store for you on this show. We're going
0:13to start with Texas at Tennessee, Old
0:16Miss at Florida, USC at Oregon. Then
0:18we're going to move to the NFL stage.
0:20We're going to talk about the Texans at
0:22the Colts, the Cardinals at the Niners,
0:24the Jets at the Lions, the Titans at the
0:26Giants, the Rams at the Broncos on
0:29Sunday Night Football, and the Eagles at
0:31the Bears on Monday Night Football. Now,
0:33why might this have become one of your
0:35new favorite sports betting podcasts?
0:37I'm 38 and 13. That is 75%
0:41on my best bets for the show, 2-0 this
0:44year after a 14-4 record last season.
0:47We've got another best bet in store for
0:48you during this show. So sit back and
0:51let's get into it.
0:54[music]
0:56Quickly before we get started with the
0:58show this week, I just want to remind
1:00you if you love the experts that I've
1:02assembled for you in college football
1:04props and in the NFL refereeing, then
1:07you need to be subscribed to the show to
1:09make sure that you never miss this
1:11episode where we deliver best bets in
1:14all of these different fields, plus my
1:16best bet at the end of the show. So,
1:18make sure that you guys subscribe. Take
1:20a second right now. The show is growing
1:22very quickly and we're very appreciative
1:24of it. But most of the people that watch
1:26this show are not subscribers. So take a
1:29quick click and subscribe to the show.
1:31Let's get started. All right, I want to
1:33talk about the Los Angeles Chargers and
1:35their fall from grace on the defensive
1:37side of the ball. They are absolutely
1:39going to get tested this week going up
1:41against Josh Allen. We'll talk about
1:42that in a second, but like what in the
1:44world is going on with this defense?
1:46They lose Jesse Mter and then everything
1:48has gone off the rails. We are not
1:50talking about some stiff competition
1:52that they've gone up against. But right
1:54now they rank 28th in sack rate, 30th in
1:57pressure rate when they blitz. They've
1:58allowed 13.5 yards per attempt on throws
2:02of 10 plus yards. That's despite going
2:04up against Kurt Cousins and Jacobe
2:06Brassette. I mean, we're not talking
2:08about quarterbacks with big arms that
2:10throw the ball deep down the field and
2:11you're allowing 13.5 yards per attempt.
2:14Insane production that's being allowed.
2:17Now, the interesting part about the
2:18Chargers defense is that they have been
2:21stout, especially on early downs against
2:23the run. They're allowing just 2.9 yards
2:25per play on early down runs. That's
2:27number two in the NFL. But they're
2:30allowing 8.6 yards per pass against
2:33early down passes. And once again, we're
2:35talking about Kirk Cousins and Jacobe
2:37Brassette are the two quarterbacks
2:39they've that they've gone up against.
2:41They sit back in coverage. They're
2:43allowing stuff underneath. Then they
2:45allow stuff over the top as well. And
2:47you pop up this strength to schedule
2:48graphic, which by the way, if you guys
2:50love these strength to schedule
2:51graphics, you can find them all over at
2:53sharp footballanalysis.com.
2:55You can choose the different stat
2:58category that you want to show and it'll
3:00display these different graphics for
3:02you. But if you look at these passing
3:04attacks that the Chargers defense have
3:06gone up against, we're talking about the
3:08Cardinals and the Raiders the first two
3:10weeks. Now look who they have to go up
3:12against. the Buffalo Bills on the road
3:14and the Buffalo Bills are gonna have
3:17success attacking this defense because
3:20Buffalo can just do what they want to do
3:22offensively, what they like to do, and
3:25that is use play action, have success
3:28against too high, and create explosive
3:30plays. And what are the Chargers bad at?
3:34They're terrible against play action.
3:35The Bills run play action the highest
3:37rate in the NFL, number one rate. The
3:39Chargers defense ranks 30th against play
3:42action. So that's going to be a mismatch
3:44right there that the Bills don't have to
3:46work to exploit. They already do it at
3:48the highest rate in the NFL. It's part
3:50of their DNA. They're going to have
3:52success using play action against this
3:53secondary. Then they also attack too
3:55high looks well. What do the Charters
3:57do? They play too high at the eighth
4:00highest rate in the NFL and they rank
4:0128th in EPA per attempt when they play
4:05too high. And what are the Bills good
4:06at? Attacking too high. where they
4:08ranked number two in the NFL in EPA per
4:11attempt when facing two high looks. So
4:14once again, the Buffalo Bills should
4:15have success there. And then we talked
4:17about the explosive pass passes earlier,
4:20how terrible this Chargers defense has
4:22been against explosive passes despite
4:24playing Kirk Cousins and Jacobe
4:26Brassette. Now they have to go up
4:28against Josh Allen. Guess what? Josh
4:30Allen, 23% of his pass attempts gain 15
4:34plus yards. That is the number one best
4:35in the NFL. I just think it's going to
4:38be very tough for this Chargers defense
4:41to match up and have success. And we
4:43know that there's a new sheriff in town
4:46in Buffalo.
4:48It's their former offensive coordinator
4:50who is now the head honcho. If he's able
4:53to lean into the pass because the
4:54Chargers are good against the run on
4:56those early downs and come out passing
4:58the football, which is what they should
4:59do, we could get some quick points on
5:02the scoreboard for the Buffalo Bills
5:04early in this one. It's going to be a
5:05very fun game to watch against a very,
5:08very desperate Los Angeles Chargers
5:10team. Next up, let's talk about one of
5:12the most underrated still, even though
5:14he's won awards, but unheralded players
5:16in the NFL, and that's Jackson Smith and
5:18Jigba of the Seattle Seahawks. Did you
5:21know that the Seahawks have scored four
5:23touchdowns? And JSN has all four of
5:25their touchdowns this season. That's
5:27pretty wild statistically for a player
5:30through a couple of games to be 100% of
5:32the team's touchdowns. But where he has
5:35excelled especially and where he's
5:37relied upon a lot is against the Blitz.
5:40He has been targeted on 39% of dropbacks
5:43against the Blitz since the start of
5:45last year and averages 4.5 yards per
5:48target on those pass attempts. That's an
5:51absurd number. Drew Lock specifically, I
5:54know Sam Darnold is practicing, but at
5:55the time of this recording, it's
5:57probably unlikely that they would even
5:58need to bring Sam Darnell back. Drew
6:00Lock might get the start here against
6:01the Washington Commanders. He targets
6:04JSN on blitzes on 41% of dropbacks and
6:08averages 4.8 yards per route run.
6:11Washington blitzes at the fifth highest
6:13rate in the NFL. We saw them blitz
6:15against the Dallas Cowboys and Dak
6:17Prescott last week. Not have a lot of
6:19success. Give up big explosive chunk
6:21plays through the air in that regard.
6:24When Washington blitzes, it allows 11.6
6:27yards per attempt. JSN already went up
6:30against these guys one year ago in DC
6:34and had 129 yards against them on eight
6:36receptions. The thing about JSN is you
6:39might say, "Well, the game should be out
6:40of hand. You don't need to use JSN."
6:42Well, how does the game get out of hand?
6:45It's because they use JSN early to
6:47create those explosive plays to score
6:49points and now the game is out of hand.
6:51So, you don't need to use him late. but
6:52he might be able to do some damage early
6:54against this Washington Commanders
6:56secondary that plays two high safety
6:59looks at the number two highest rate in
7:01the NFL. And the Seahawks are among the
7:03best offenses in the NFL against Too
7:06High. And I'm specifically obviously
7:07referring to Drew Lock because we know
7:09Sam Darnold hasn't really played much.
7:11The Seahawks are averaging the number
7:13four most EPA per attempt against Too
7:15High looks so far this season. So that's
7:17a big-time frequency mismatch. um they
7:20use 12 personnel at the 11th highest
7:22rate. They ranked number two in EPA per
7:24pass attempt. When using 12 personnel,
7:27then the Commanders rank 26th in EPA per
7:30attempt allowed versus 12 personnel. So,
7:33they haven't been good defending it. The
7:35Seahawks use it a lot and are good with
7:36it. And then the Seahawks run play
7:38action. Now, it's not a super high rate.
7:41It's 21% of the time, 11th highest in
7:43the NFL. They rank fourth in EPA per
7:46attempt when dropping back with play
7:48action. And the Commanders 29th in the
7:51NFL defending play action, minus 0.50
7:54EPA per attempt defensively. They're
7:57allowing opposing quarterbacks to have
7:59success off of play action. All this
8:01talks to blitzing bad against play
8:04action, struggling against uh too high.
8:07These are things that the Seahawks
8:09should have success and specifically
8:10JSN. It's going to be interesting to see
8:12if they can repeat that success they had
8:14last year in DC back once again here in
8:17week three at 1 pm Eastern on Sunday.
8:21All right, now let's talk about the
8:23Cleveland Browns taking on the Carolina
8:25Panthers. Not the sexiest matchup, but
8:27there's some interesting facts here.
8:29First of all, I'm not going to discuss
8:31this right now because we discussed this
8:32on the matchup show yesterday with Rich
8:35Reebar. And if you're not a subscriber,
8:37first of all, take a second, hit
8:39subscribe so you don't miss the shows.
8:40But go back and watch that show that we
8:43recorded yesterday. We put it out on the
8:45feed yesterday. Rich talked about Bryce
8:48Young going up against man coverage and
8:49how the Cleveland Browns pivoted into
8:52demand coverage last week. What that
8:53might mean for the Carolina Panthers
8:55passing attack this week. Very important
8:57aspect to this game overall. But I want
8:59to talk about the other side of the ball
9:01and that's Deshun Watson going up
9:03against this Carolina Panthers defense.
9:05And first and foremost, I want to show
9:07another strength of schedule graphic.
9:09We're going to be showing you guys more
9:11of these throughout the coming weeks
9:12because they are very relevant and also
9:16very useful from a betting and props
9:18perspective to understand what a team's
9:19going up against this week and what they
9:22faced in recent weeks to kind of
9:24understand like level setting here,
9:25which is very important as it relates to
9:28being able to predict the future, which
9:30is what we're trying to do. Expecting a
9:32Deshawn Watson offense to play extremely
9:36well when you don't have a run game is
9:39very difficult. And if you look at this
9:41schedule graphic, you will see that week
9:44one, they played a top 10 run defense in
9:46the Jacksonville Jaguars. Week two, the
9:48Cleveland Browns played a top 10 run
9:51defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who
9:52actually ranks number two in the NFL.
9:55Now, massive drop in competition.
9:58They're going up against the Carolina
9:59Panthers run defense, which ranks bottom
10:02five in the NFL. One of the largest
10:05strength of schedule mismatches from
10:07what we've seen so far this year to what
10:09we're going to see this upcoming week.
10:12Let's talk about what we've seen so far
10:13this year, though. The Cleveland Browns
10:16don't want to start games just dropping
10:17Deshawn Watson back to pass against even
10:20if they're going up against a tough run
10:22defense. So, sure enough, they were not
10:24doing that. Their early down offense is
10:26averaging on the season just 5.9 yards
10:28per play. That's because the run game
10:31against these tough run defenses gains
10:33just 2.5 yards per carry. That ranks
10:36dead last in the NFL, 32 out of 32. The
10:39Browns are trying to be balanced because
10:41they don't want Deshun Watson just
10:42dropping back to pass. So, they have a
10:4454% early down pass rate in the first
10:46half of games, which is right around the
10:48NFL average of 55.7%.
10:51But because of their desire to be
10:52balanced and the number two toughest
10:54schedule of run defenses leading to just
10:562.5 yards per carry on these early down
10:58runs, the Browns are averaging 8.2 yards
11:02to go on third down, which is the
11:04seventh highest in the NFL. And as a
11:07result, they've converted first downs at
11:09the 29th, sorry, at the fifth lowest
11:12rate, number 28 in the NFL, converting
11:15first downs just 29% of the time on
11:18third down. So, they're punting the
11:20ball. They're kicking it back to their
11:21opponent. They're not gaining as many
11:23yards. We would expect that when you're
11:26going up against these tough run
11:28defenses if you're trying to be
11:29balanced. But now you're able to go up
11:31against the Carolina Panthers. Now,
11:34you're going to be able to have more
11:35success on these early down runs because
11:37you're trying to call runs and passes
11:39and blend them. You're now going to have
11:41fewer yards to go on third down. So,
11:43you're going to be able to convert third
11:45downs into first downs a lot more
11:47frequently. And if you look at the first
11:50two weeks, the Browns ranked 25th in
11:52rate of drives to reach the red zone.
11:55They r they are one of only two teams to
11:58never have gotten the ball inside the 10
12:00yard line in goal to go situation. They
12:02and the Atlanta Falcons. You've heard a
12:04lot about the Atlanta Falcons never make
12:06any trips into the red zone. Cleveland
12:07Browns have never made it into goal to
12:09go situations so far this season. Only
12:11the Atlanta Falcons join them there.
12:14They rank 28th in yards per drive, 30th
12:17in plays per drive, and 31st in
12:19threeandout rate. 43% of their drives
12:22have gone three and out. All of this is
12:24predicated on the fact that they're
12:26going up against these tough run
12:28defenses. They're not able to run the
12:30football. They're faced with third and
12:31very long. That all could change. I'm
12:34not expecting the Cleveland Browns to be
12:36an elite offense this week just because
12:38they're going up against the Carolina
12:39Panthers. And certainly a lot of the
12:41outcome of this game has to do with a
12:44quarterback that we don't have a lot of
12:45confidence in, Deshun Watson. Although
12:47he's played better than a lot of people
12:49have expected through the first two
12:50weeks. Like we know that Deshun Watson
12:53has problems. He's coming back home. I'm
12:55not sure if the Browns ever were
12:56expecting him to start this game at
12:58home. Maybe there were some expectations
13:00that he would look terrible in the first
13:02two games against blitzing defenses that
13:05are good against the run and they would
13:07lose and be 0 and2 and Deshawn would
13:09throw, you know, five picks a game and
13:12be terrible. To see them win that game
13:14last week, uh I think it's going to give
13:16them some opportunities here to give him
13:18this start and see how he performs and
13:20now he's going to have the benefit of
13:22the run game. It's going to be very
13:23interesting to see how this game plays
13:24out. All right, real quick one. And I
13:26know you guys, some of you at least come
13:28for the best bets. We're going to get to
13:29the best bets. College props from the
13:32refs and from me. But first and
13:34foremost, I just want to mention that
13:37Drake May has been terrible against
13:40cover six. We know that he struggled
13:42last season against cover six. We know
13:44that that was something that Shawn
13:46McDermott from the Buffalo Bills sort of
13:48used in that second matchup and threw a
13:50curveball at Drake May and slowed him
13:53down offensively. We saw a lot of other
13:56teams to close out the 2025 season,
13:58replicate that, up their rates of cover
14:00six. This is all research that I was
14:02doing last season preparing for the
14:04playoffs and especially the Super Bowl
14:05against the Seahawks. Why? Because the
14:07Seahawks inherently by nature used the
14:10most cover six of any team in the NFL.
14:12And I figured that that was going to
14:14give Drake May and the passing attack of
14:16the New England Patriots problems in the
14:18Super Bowl. Then we saw it rear its ugly
14:20head once again in week one when they h
14:22had to go back up against the Seattle
14:24Seahawks and Drake May didn't look great
14:26through three interceptions in that game
14:29to close it out against a backup
14:31quarterback who's coming in cold off the
14:32bench in terms of Drew Lockach. Drake
14:35May just in general has not played all
14:38that well against cover six and teams
14:39use cover six a little bit more
14:41frequently against him as a result of
14:42that. I was hoping this off seasonason
14:45they would figure out a new strategy
14:46with which to attack cover six. We're
14:50going to find out this week how they
14:52perform against cover six because the
14:54Seattle Seahawks play the most cover six
14:56in the NFL. You know who plays the
14:58second most cover six in the NFL since
15:00the start of the 2025 season? The
15:02Jacksonville Jaguars who the New England
15:04Patriots are going up against this very
15:06next game. So, the Jacksonville Jaguars
15:09don't have the secondary, don't have the
15:10scheme, don't have the defensive minded
15:12coach to have as good of a secondary as
15:15do the Seattle Seahawks. So, I'm not
15:18expecting Drake May to have the same
15:20struggles as what he's had against the
15:22Seattle Seahawks. But this is an
15:24opportunity for Josh McDaniels and the
15:26New England Patriots to try to put into
15:29play some of the solutions and answers
15:32to cover six in this game down in
15:34Jacksonville in a game that the Patriots
15:37obviously got to win, they're one and
15:39one. The Jaguars are one and one.
15:41Whichever one of these teams loses to
15:43the other. I mean, this is a big game
15:45within the AFC Conference in terms of
15:47seating and things like that. Uh, one of
15:49these teams is going to fall to one and
15:51two, and neither of these teams want to
15:53be that team that's going to lose. So,
15:55it's going to be vital for Josh
15:57McDaniels and Drake May to figure out
15:58those answers to cover six because
16:00they're going to see a fair amount of it
16:02given the Jaguars played at the second
16:03highest rate in the NFL. All right, now
16:06it's time to bring on our college
16:07football betting expert, Ryan Mcrist, to
16:09talk about some of the biggest games on
16:11the college football slate. He's got
16:13takes on Old Miss at Florida. He's got
16:15takes on USC at Oregon. He's also got
16:17takes on Texas at Tennessee with one of
16:20his favorite bets of the week being in
16:22that game. So, let's hear from Ryan.
16:24>> All right, Old Miss and Florida. Huge
16:26matchup in the SEC between two
16:28undefeated teams, hoping to keep things
16:30rolling and head to a playoff birth. The
16:32big matchup in this one, I think, is
16:34going to be Miss's defensive front
16:36against Florida's rushing attack.
16:38Florida leans on a very runheavy
16:40approach on offense, and this is
16:42basically the Georgia Tech offense that
16:44we've seen in recent years. Buster
16:45Faulner is their offensive coordinator.
16:47He was the offensive coordinator at
16:48Georgia Tech the past few seasons. They
16:50had a really physical rushing attack led
16:52by quarterback Haynes King over the last
16:54few seasons. Now, what Faulner does
16:56that's a little bit unique that we don't
16:58see a lot of in college football is he
16:59leans on heavier personnel. Leans on a
17:01lot of 12 personnel. That's their
17:02primary rushing formation. It allows
17:05them to bully defenses that often we see
17:07in college football. Defenses are built
17:09on playing, you know, fast to be able to
17:12defend spread offenses. is lots of teams
17:14use 11 personnel to run out of primarily
17:16and so this sort of makes the Florida
17:18offense a little bit unique and we
17:19certainly saw that work for Georgia Tech
17:21over the past few seasons. They were
17:22able to bully some of the smaller faster
17:25defenses by being more physical than
17:26them. Now theoretically that applies to
17:30the miss defense because Pete Golding
17:32heavily relies on the 245 and the 335
17:35defensive front. He rarely stacks the
17:37box with more than six defenders. So
17:40theoretically, this is the type of
17:42defense that a a Buster Faulner offense
17:45could push around a little bit. However,
17:47we just haven't seen that happen
17:49recently. Last year, Miss did go up
17:51against a couple teams that like to lean
17:53on heavier personnel, specifically
17:55Georgia and Miami in the college
17:57football playoff, and they held up just
17:59fine in those situations. In two games
18:01against Georgia,
18:03Miss held Georgia running backs to just
18:053.8 yards per attempt out of 12
18:08personnel. and they replicated that 3.8
18:11yards per attempt mark in the playoffs
18:12against Miami. So, we've sort of seen
18:14this proof of concept of them going up
18:16against these more physical teams and
18:18did it against two very good teams last
18:20year in Georgia and Miami as well. Now,
18:22they did lose some players off that
18:24defense. Obviously, some guys went over
18:26left to the NFL, some guys went to uh
18:28LSU with Lane Kein. However, the the key
18:32component to their defense stayed. Will
18:34Eckles might be the best defensive
18:36tackle in the entire country. He's still
18:38on that miss defensive line. So, I'm
18:41leaning Miss in this game, but check
18:42back for my full breakdown on the
18:44website of this game. I'll break down
18:45the full matchup, cover it from all
18:47angles, and I'll eventually I'll make a
18:48pick on the website. You can check that
18:50out there.
18:52All right, Oregon at USC. Huge matchup
18:54in the Big 10 between these old Pack 12
18:57foes. The key matchup here is going to
18:59be Oregon's offensive line against USC's
19:01pass rush. Although, a factor is also
19:03going to be game script, sort of who
19:05gets an early lead in this game. Because
19:07Oregon likes to play fast and get the
19:09ball out quickly. They like to sort of
19:10play side to side with a lot of short
19:12quick throws, screen game and whatnot.
19:14They they get the ball out as fast as
19:16they can when they're running their
19:18normal offense and things are going
19:20according to plan. Last year, Oregon
19:22quarterbacks got rid of the ball in
19:23under two and a half seconds 40 55% of
19:26the time. That was the 17th highest rate
19:29in the nation. But game script really
19:31depends on their ability to do that. if
19:33they're leading the game, they can
19:35afford to just get the ball out quickly,
19:37sort of use the passing game as an
19:38extension of the run game. That didn't
19:41happen in their loss to Oklahoma State a
19:43couple weeks ago. Or Oregon was trailing
19:45for most of that game. And so Dante
19:47Moore had to hold the ball for two and a
19:48half seconds or longer 63% of the time,
19:52and that exposed a major weakness in the
19:55offensive line. on those extended
19:57dropbacks. Moore faced pressure on 46%
20:00of those snaps, including four sacks
20:02that he took on those extended
20:04dropbacks. So, the biggest factor in
20:06this game might simply be who can take
20:07an early lead. And USC's offense, we
20:10know it's explosive. If they can jump
20:11out to an early lead and force Dante
20:13Moore to play from behind and have to
20:15sit in the pocket and take more shots
20:17downfield, sort of get that Oregon
20:19offense out of its comfort zone, they
20:21could potentially flip the advantage for
20:23themselves. And so USC's defensive pass
20:25rush could potentially be a big factor
20:28in this game as long as they're able to
20:30play with the lead. So that's the big
20:32factor. That's one of the things that
20:33I'm looking at in this game. Again, I'll
20:35have the pick for this game and a full
20:37uh full matchup breakdown on the
20:39website.
20:40All right, game of the week, Texas at
20:42Tennessee. Huge matchup in the SEC.
20:45Again, Texas, they've already proven
20:47themselves. They already beat Ohio
20:48State, proven that they're a legitimate
20:50playoff contender, national title
20:51contender. Tennessee on the other hand,
20:54lots of new pieces on both sides of the
20:55ball for them. They've looked really
20:57good so far this season, but they just
20:59haven't been tested at all. And this
21:00will be their biggest test of the
21:02season. Probably the best defense they
21:03will face in Texas. So, it could be
21:06potentially a game that, you know,
21:07pushes them into that title that SEC
21:10title contention, playoff contention
21:11again if they prove themselves or maybe
21:13it exposes some weaknesses because it is
21:15going to be the first test. The matchup
21:17that I'm looking at most closely in this
21:19one is going to be Tennessee's running
21:21game against a Texas defense that we
21:23know is going to be one of the best in
21:24the country this year. Tennessee's
21:26running game led by Deshawn Bishop. It's
21:27it's been phenomenal so far this season,
21:29but they just haven't been tested at
21:31all. Right now, Tennessee running backs
21:33are averaging 3.9 yards before contact
21:37per attempt. That's the best rate in the
21:38country. It's completely unsustainable.
21:41But this this offense does have a track
21:44record of creating yards after contact,
21:46spreading defenses out, able to get
21:48some, you know, open running lanes for
21:49its defense. So maybe this is a sign
21:52that they're going to be able to
21:53continue running the ball well
21:54throughout the season, even against a
21:55defense like Texas. I'm a little
21:58skeptical though because the one test
22:00that they sort of had was Georgia Tech,
22:03and that Georgia Tech defense just
22:04doesn't look like it's it's going to be
22:06good enough even against power
22:07conference teams this year. They they
22:09gave up 194 yards on the ground to
22:12Colorado earlier this season. Talking
22:14about the Georgia Tech defense here. And
22:16we know ever since Deion Sanders got
22:18there, that Colorado team not exactly
22:20known for its offensive line and its
22:21ability to run the ball. That's the
22:23that's the most rushing yards Colorado's
22:24had by a wide margin against any team
22:26since Dion got there. So, that was a bit
22:28of a red flag that probably means we
22:30should throw out that result against
22:32Georgia Tech. the fact that they were
22:34able to run the ball against a formerly
22:36physical Georgia Tech defense probably
22:38doesn't mean what it would have meant in
22:40the past few seasons. So, I'm just sort
22:42of ignoring that. I'm treating that
22:43almost like a group of five game for
22:46Tennessee. I'm assuming they haven't
22:47been tested at all. I'm kind of throwing
22:48out all the numbers when it comes to the
22:50Tennessee running game at this point.
22:52However, Texas has played Ohio State. We
22:55know what they're capable of. And
22:57against that Ohio State running game,
22:59they held Ohio State running backs to
23:010.9 yards before contact per attempt.
23:04That's a very big data point that I'm
23:05willing to trust early in the season,
23:07unlike all of the numbers Tennessee has
23:09posted at this point. So, I'm pretty
23:11confident in Texas's ability to at least
23:13slow down the Tennessee running game a
23:15little bit and put some more pressure on
23:17Tennessee's true freshman quarterback,
23:19Faison Brandon. And that's something I
23:21would be concerned about if I were
23:22Tennessee because you've got a true
23:24freshman going up against an experienced
23:26defense in Texas that's already been
23:28tested this season against a Ohio State
23:31passing attack which is obviously is
23:33dangerous. Now Texas did have some
23:34struggles against Jeremiah Smith at
23:37times in that game. Tennessee doesn't
23:38have anything close to a Jeremiah Smith
23:41on offense on at the wide receiver with
23:43a freshman quarterback throwing to
23:45lesser receivers than any than Jeremiah
23:48Smith had than Ohio State had. Jeremiah
23:50Smith. I just don't think Faison Brandon
23:52is going to be able to make up for some
23:54of the issues at the running game. So,
23:57unless Tennessee proves that this
23:58running game is for real and is one of
24:00the best in the country, I don't think
24:02Brandon is going to be able to make up
24:03for it in the passing game. So, with a
24:05relatively close spread here, I feel
24:07pretty good taking Texas. I'll lay the
24:08four and a half points and take the
24:10Longhorns in this matchup.
24:12>> All right, that was great from Ryan. He
24:14always has outstanding opinions based
24:17upon data and data that you're not going
24:19to find anywhere else. And you know
24:21where else he shares that information?
24:23In long articles previewing these games
24:26over at sharpootanalysis.com.
24:28So if you want to read more about any of
24:30these games, head over to
24:32sharpootanalysis.com.
24:33Check out Ryan's articles. He's
24:35previewing interesting matchup angles
24:38for all of these games that, like I
24:41said, you're not going to find anywhere
24:42else. Great, great, great resource.
24:46Quick break before we get on to our best
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26:01games. All right, now [snorts] it's time
26:02for one of the best segments of the
26:05show. our visit with Rich Reebar, loyal
26:08member of the Sharp Prop Squad. He's got
26:11three props that he loves this week.
26:13Now, to be blunt, one of them that he
26:16put on the list was not available right
26:17now at the time of recording. So, our
26:20subscribers over at Chart Football
26:22Analysis will get that one. I think
26:23Rich, you actually like that one
26:25probably better than any of these other
26:27three, but all three of these you really
26:30truly like. And let's get started
26:32breaking them down. And the first one,
26:34we're going to look at receiving yards.
26:35And for that, we're going to go to the
26:38Jets versus Lions game. And we're going
26:39to look at Garrett Wilson of the New
26:42York Jets traveling to the dome to take
26:45on the Lions. They're six and a half
26:46point underdogs. Potential game state
26:49will work out for you here on this one.
26:51Uh the line right now is at 62 a half at
26:54pretty much every spot. There are a
26:56couple of 64 and a halfs. You can
26:58actually I don't think you should but
27:00Koshi has this at minus 137 over uh 60
27:03plus yards which I think they do like
27:06the yards in 60 plus 65 plus etc. So uh
27:10but 64 and a half uh is the worst line
27:13you could get. I would hunt for the 62
27:15and a half. Talk to us about why you
27:17think Garrett Wilson is going to have
27:18success here against this Detroit Lions
27:21defense.
27:22>> Yeah, multiple angles here. obviously
27:24being, you know, road dogs and the
27:26implied game state, uh, you know, could
27:28push more throwing. The Jets have also
27:30to open the year been very inconsistent
27:32running the football. We saw them really
27:34struggle last week to run the football.
27:36So maybe they're just a team that's
27:37going to be kind of have be hypervariant
27:39in terms of running the football and
27:41sometimes have to lean into the past
27:43like last week even when they the
27:44conditions and the rain uh don't really
27:46warrant it. But I'm particularly bullish
27:48on Wilson here because of Detroit's
27:51aggressive defense and the state of
27:53their secondary right now. Obviously,
27:55they lose another defensive player,
27:57Nvante Maddox, uh, last week. But
28:00Detroit is fourth in the NFL in rate of
28:01man coverage under Kelvin Shepard since
28:03they've hired him, just under 30%. Uh,
28:05Wilson has been targeted so far from
28:07Gino Smith on 44% of his routes against
28:10man coverage. For his career, he's at
28:1228% uh with over two yards per out run
28:15against man coverage. Uh, the Detroit
28:17Lions blitz at at the eighth highest
28:19rate in the NFL. Kelvin Shepard was
28:22actually just like angry blitzing Josh
28:24Allen last week because he just had no
28:25other answer. He's like, "Well, I guess
28:26we'll just blitz." Uh, but they even in
28:28week one, they were 10th in the NFL in
28:30blitz rate. So, this is an aggressive by
28:32nature defense. Uh, and in two games
28:34against the Blitz to open the season,
28:36Gino Smith has actually been awesome.
28:37He's 14 of 19 against the Blitz, nine
28:40yards for pass attempt. And when he's
28:42been blitzed these first two games, he's
28:44targeted Garrett Wilson 33% of the time
28:46for two and a half yards per route run.
28:49Garrett Wilson, I know he was out
28:50targeted by Adai Mitchell last week, but
28:52it was all secondary target stuff. Uh
28:54first read targets through two games.
28:56Garrett Mitchell is 10th in the or
28:58Garrett Mitchell Garrett Wilson is 10th
29:00in the NFL and first read target rate.
29:02So, putting all those things together,
29:04I'm expecting a lot of targets and based
29:07on what we just laid out with Gino
29:08Smith, a lot of potential yardage
29:09efficiency here on those targets.
29:12>> So, we always like to ask when you're
29:14playing in over, do you like the ladder
29:16spots here? So, where would you ladder
29:18this one to for your own personal
29:20strategy?
29:21>> Personally, I'm taking this one to to
29:23the triple digits. I'm taking it to 100.
29:25>> Okay. All right. All right. So number
29:28one, Garrett Wilson over 62 and a half
29:31receiving yards for Rich. That's the
29:34current line. Let's go to number two.
29:36And for that one, we're going with a
29:37receptions number. And this one is a
29:40heralded wide receiver. He's a rookie. A
29:42lot of hype when he was drafted. Uh we
29:45really haven't seen it work out so far
29:47for either he or his team so far this
29:50season. Although they did put up a great
29:52fight last week, they still ended up
29:55losing. It's Carnell Tate of the
29:57Tennessee Titans and they're taking on
29:59Brian Dball's old nemesis or old team
30:02now probably nemesis the New York
30:04Giants. The game is up in New York.
30:06Brian Dball gets to go back up there.
30:07He's going to be calling plays for Cam
30:09Ward trying to get the ball to Carell
30:11Tate at least four times. And Carninal
30:14Tate right now you could see his
30:15reception number plus 129 is the best
30:18number we can get. So plus 129 to the
30:21over three and a half receptions. Need
30:23him to get four. What about this
30:25matchup, Rich, has you intrigued with
30:27Carnell Tate to hit the over in his
30:29receptions?
30:31>> Yeah, and you know, uh, like like Bo
30:33Knicks last week, you know, sometimes
30:34these aren't going to be fun, right?
30:36Like they're not going to be easy easy
30:37clicks, but we we got to follow whatever
30:39where the where the northstar is. And
30:41this one, too, we're getting plus juice
30:42on, which is nice. You know, a lot of
30:43these
30:44>> Bonx, by the way, not to interrupt you,
30:45Rich, but I mean, there were a lot of
30:47doubters about the Bonx one, and he
30:49absolutely took that ladder to the moon
30:52as well. Yeah, he fell just short of my
30:55last he he he was he fell just short of
30:57my last leg on the ladder which I would
30:59have loved because it was paired with a
31:01a Jaylen Wadd as well too. But hey,
31:04again like we we've just got to follow
31:05what we got to stay we got to stay
31:07biased. But I never expected Cardinal
31:09Tate to have a really good game last
31:10week against Quinan Mitchell in a tough
31:12matchup. But through two weeks his usage
31:15is actually tremendously promising. Um
31:17he's run a route on 84% of the team
31:20dropbacks. That's number one on the
31:21team. He's been targeted on a team high
31:2325% of his routes uh as well. He has 25%
31:27of the team targets and while the box
31:29scores have been light like the that
31:32usage is going to eventually turn into
31:34production and this is a tremendous spot
31:36to get their top five rookie pick uh
31:39some opportunities in the pass game. I
31:41mean uh in the matchup show we broke
31:43down what Devonte Adams did against the
31:45Giants on Monday night. Uh I don't
31:47expect that kind of number here. here. I
31:49don't think we're going for 190 uh with
31:51Carnell Tape, but this secondary is just
31:53down really bad. Uh the you know, Paul
31:55Sanados is on IR. Greg Newsome's playing
31:58through a rib injury. They had to
31:59elevate rookie Colton Hood. Uh all of
32:01these guys, Greg Newsome gave up over 51
32:04yards in coverage last week. Colton Hood
32:0570 yards. Uh Tyler Nuben gave up 123
32:08yards in coverage last week. So, this is
32:10just an optimal spot, I think. And
32:12Cardinal Tates had three and four
32:13catches, too, by the way, to open the
32:15season. Like, he had three catches
32:16against the Eagles. So, like it's not
32:18like we're we're taking a guy that had
32:19one catch and we're trying to get him
32:20there. Like, he's already been at this
32:21line and we're getting plus money and I
32:23don't think the opportunity in the
32:24matchup align here uh for him to
32:27continue to get targets and maybe have a
32:29little more upside here. Another
32:31interesting note, again, we're recording
32:32this uh we don't know yet the Thursday
32:34injury report yet. So, but we we know
32:37that Tony Pard, the lead back, was on
32:40the injury report dealing with some sort
32:43of soreness or something like that. So,
32:45I mean, if the if the Titans need to
32:47swerve a little bit more pass heavy, you
32:49know, they probably don't want Cam War
32:50to be chucking the ball all over the
32:51field, but if they do need to swerve a
32:53little bit more pass heavy because
32:54they're not having success running or
32:56their running backs are a little bit
32:57dinged up. I mean, extra opportunity
32:59there. Okay, let's go to speaking of
33:01opportunity, Rich, that's what the name
33:03of the game is for your final prop on
33:05the show today, and that's you're
33:07predicting a game state that should
33:09favor one team tremendously. So, you're
33:11you're willing to take the over in the
33:13rushing yards for the backup running
33:15back here. And in this case, we're going
33:17to head down to Miami, South Beach.
33:20We're going to check out the Kansas City
33:21Chiefs traveling down there and EMTT
33:24Johnson to have a good day here on the
33:27ground. You can find 23 and a half,
33:30multiple spots out there, a couple of 24
33:32and a half. Emtt Johnson over 23 and a
33:35half rushing yards against this putrid
33:38Miami Dolphins defense that, you know,
33:40Rich, I will I will be honest though,
33:42last week against the San Francisco
33:4449ers. They did hold up well in the run
33:47game relative to expectations against
33:49both running backs for the 49ers, but
33:51Brock Party just carved them up through
33:53the air. What it does allow is the game
33:56state to play very favorably for their
33:59opponent uh to allow them the option of
34:01running the football. So, how do you see
34:04EMTT Johnson stacking up here and
34:06getting those opportunities based on
34:08game state and then making them
34:10efficient enough so that he can exceed
34:12this number?
34:13>> Yeah, Emtt Johnson's looked really good
34:15in relief of Kenneth Walker so far
34:16getting pepper in the offense to the
34:18point where Andy Reid has taken notice
34:20and talked about it. It really starts
34:22with a couple points. one, we've got,
34:23you know, a huge favorite here with the
34:25Chiefs and they're coming off of a a
34:26long overtime game. Uh they're playing
34:29in Miami. I haven't really looked at the
34:31weather, see how hot it's going to be,
34:32but if you know, early in the season,
34:34Miami structured their stadium, so the
34:36opposing team, like I the Chiefs are
34:38going to wear probably red uniforms
34:39because Miami always wears whites in
34:40September at home because the visiting
34:43opponents on in just cooking in the sun
34:45during the game. Uh but the Chiefs have
34:48played this this long overtime game
34:49against the Colts. The Kenneth Walker
34:52now has 58 or 56 touches through two
34:56games. He's tracking to have 475
34:58touches. I'm pretty sure he's not going
34:59to get 475 touches this season. This is
35:02a tremendous spot to kind of alleviate
35:04his workload a little bit. The Miami
35:06Dolphins have trailed by double digit
35:07points in the scoreboard for 67% of
35:10their offensive snaps. both Kalin Black
35:13and Mike Washington hit this number in
35:15weeks one and two as relief backs uh
35:17coming in against the Miami Dolphins.
35:20So, putting all those things together, I
35:22think we're going to see EMTT Johnson,
35:24you know, get closer to probably like
35:25the 8 to 10 uh carry mark here and have
35:28a shot to hit this the just low total
35:30here. All right, so there we go. We got
35:33a receiving yards prop, we got a
35:35receptions prop, and we got a rushing
35:37yards prop from Rich on this week's
35:39show. I forgot to ask you on this
35:40specific one any lading or you
35:43>> probably not probably this one I'm just
35:46going to take because I think it's just
35:47set a little bit too low. Um I was
35:50looking at his combo yardage stuff and
35:51that was already that was also set kind
35:53of at like a number where it was like
35:55all right we can't you maybe have a
35:57little bit of fun with it but I pro I
35:58probably won't go crazy
36:00>> right the only the only ceiling that we
36:02might see here is uh is if unfortunately
36:05something happens to Kenneth Walker we
36:06won't even put that out into the
36:08universe. So, Kenneth Walker, definitely
36:11one of the favorite players of this
36:13show. If you guys listened last year,
36:14won us our Super Bowl best bet. Uh, one
36:17of our favorite go-tos in the longest
36:20markets out there. So, uh, we love you,
36:22Kenneth Walker. Stay healthy. But EMTT
36:24Johnson, you can clear this. You only
36:26need 24 25 yards. So, uh, let's get that
36:29done. Let's get Rich to another great
36:31week. And, uh, we always enjoy visiting
36:33with them. Rich, good luck this weekend,
36:35and we'll talk to you again soon.
36:36>> Good luck, everyone.
36:37>> All right. Now, it's time for our
36:39outstanding referee analyst, Joe Gibbs,
36:41to give his analysis of the third team
36:43on the field, the referees. It's always
36:46important to understand their
36:47tendencies, their trends, what types of
36:49things that they call or don't call to
36:51help us get a better understanding ahead
36:53of time what to expect from these games.
36:55He's covering three games for us today.
36:58The Texans at the Colts, a massive AFC
37:00South battle. And then he's breaking
37:02down the two prime time games. You've
37:03got Sunday night football with the Rams
37:05at the Broncos and Monday night football
37:07with the Eagles at the Bears. Let's hear
37:08what Joe thinks.
37:10>> Okay, so the Texans at the Colts Ron
37:12Torbbert the referee home underdogs like
37:15the Colts are 19 and39 against the
37:18spread with Torbett over the past
37:19decade. The Colts at Lucas All Stadium
37:21with Torbett one and one straight up and
37:24against the spread. The one loss against
37:26the spread was as a home underdog. Uh,
37:29so as far as penalty information,
37:31Torbett, no surprise to anybody, puts a
37:33point of emphasis on offensive holding
37:35and false start, and those two account
37:37for 50% of his penalties assessed this
37:39season. Granted, it's only a twoame
37:41sample size, but it kind of fits the
37:43narrative of how these guys approach the
37:45game. So, a focus on the offensive side
37:47of the ball. Defensively, they do have a
37:50willingness to throw pass interference
37:52penalties, but the primary threat of
37:55drawing those on each team, which is
37:56Nico Collins for the Texans and Alec
37:58Pierce for the Colts. Those guys are
38:00out. So, I think what we see here is a
38:03lowercing game. Essentially, it's a it's
38:06a playoff game. It's a deacto playoff
38:08game in September because the loser of
38:10this is staring at an 0 and3 start. And
38:13look, I know Houston dug out of that
38:15hole last season, but you just don't
38:16want to be in that situation. So, it
38:19comes down to I like the under, but from
38:22a side perspective, who do I trust? And
38:26I think actually it may be a blessing in
38:28disguise for Houston to get on the road.
38:29There's been a lot of negativity
38:31swirling around them after back-to-back
38:32home losses, but they face Josh Allen,
38:34they face Joe Burrow. This is a huge
38:36step down in in competition versus
38:39Daniel Jones. So, the best unit on the
38:42field is the Texans defense, and I think
38:44they go in there on Sunday. I like them.
38:47I like the Texans to go into the Colts
38:48and get the win.
38:51All right, Sunday Night Football. Rams
38:53at the Broncos, Bill Vineovich, the
38:55referee. So, since 2018, home teams with
38:58Vineovic, 5773-4
39:00against the spread, just 44%. The
39:03Broncos at home all time with Vineovich
39:05just 1-6. Uh Sean Payton, the Broncos
39:08head coach, he has some history with
39:09Vineovic. Uh going back to the 2019 NFC
39:13Championship game, actually against the
39:14Rams, the New Orleans no call late in
39:18the contest, which essentially cost the
39:19Saints a Super Bowl birth. Uh obvious
39:21pass interference by the Rams.
39:23Vineovich's crew let it go. Rest is
39:25history. Rams moved on to the Super
39:27Bowl, lost to the Patriots. But um yeah,
39:29Payton and Vineovic a history there. The
39:32Broncos record with Vineovich not great
39:34at home. Then you have the Rams coming
39:36in. Vineovich himself, he's only done
39:38one game this year. He had the buy week
39:40one, but an overwhelming amount of his
39:42penalties were assessed by offensive
39:43holding and uh false start penalties.
39:46The Broncos currently a top 10 penalized
39:48team as they were last year and top 10
39:50for pre- snap penalties as they were
39:51last year. Uh the Rams, on the other
39:53hand, super efficient. They don't beat
39:55themselves with self-inflicted errors
39:57via penalty. So they're as well prepared
40:00as anybody to go into Denver and at
40:02least not beat themselves via long
40:04yardage via penalty. So that they do
40:07have that in their favor. I do think the
40:10game trends under uh both offenses have
40:13still been choppy. It's early in the
40:15season. Vineovic this decade 58% to the
40:18under in his games. So that's something
40:20to keep in mind. As far as the teams
40:23themselves, I mean, my theory last year
40:25and this year until I'm proven wrong,
40:27the top of the NFC, or more specifically
40:29the top of the NFC West, which is
40:31Seattle, San Francisco, and the Rams,
40:33those teams are a notch above everybody
40:34else in the NFL. And so, until that
40:37theory is proven incorrect over a period
40:39of time, I'm I'm I'm going to ride with
40:41that. And and I go with the Rams here on
40:43Sunday Night Football. A small number at
40:45Denver. They got the win last week in a
40:48relatively easy game. I think they can
40:50go in there. I think this team is still
40:52a notch above what the Broncos are. It's
40:54going to be a great game, but I do like
40:55the Rams in Denver on Sunday Night
40:57Football.
41:00Okay, Monday Night Football. Eagles at
41:02the Bears. Sean Hockeyy, the referee.
41:04Home teams throughout his career, 47%
41:07against the spread. Uh the Eagles with
41:10Sirani and Herz, specifically those two,
41:136-0 straight up, 3-2 and one against the
41:16spread with Shan Hawky. uh his crew
41:18traditionally calls a higher percentage
41:20of offensive penalties than most in the
41:22league. Through two games, they're at
41:24league average, but there's plenty of
41:25time for that to change, and I wouldn't
41:27be surprised to see that happen on
41:28Monday Night Football, which leads me to
41:30the Bears, 60% of their overall
41:33penalties so far this season on the
41:34offense. That continues a trend from the
41:37past two years where the offense is
41:39heavily penalized. They're again a top
41:4110 team for pre- snap infractions.
41:44that could be a problem on Monday night
41:46with this crew and against this Eagles
41:48defense. So,
41:50we're not going to get an offensive
41:51masterpiece. I think we can all pretty
41:53much agree on that one. Uh, this is
41:55really first to 20 wins. There's a lot
41:57of uncertainty obviously with the
41:59quarterback situation in Chicago. Eagles
42:02offense is sputtered, but they have that
42:05defense to lean on, and that defense got
42:07absolutely shredded by the Bears last
42:09year in Philadelphia on Black Friday.
42:11So, that'll be fresh in their minds.
42:13They're going to go in there with a
42:14point to prove on Monday night. Ugly
42:16game, lowercing game, you know, 20-13
42:19type final, but I like Philly here
42:22laying the points and the under on
42:24Monday Night Football. All right, that
42:27was an outstanding breakdown from Joe.
42:28As I told you guys a couple of weeks
42:30ago, as the data flows in to the season,
42:33we're going to get better and better
42:34analysis from Joe on these referee
42:37angles. So, make sure that you guys
42:38continue to stay tuned and hit that
42:40subscribe button. Before we get to my
42:42best bet of the show, a quick shout out
42:44to our partners at OddsJam. If you're
42:45betting this season, getting the best
42:47number on every bet matters. You can see
42:49their odds screen on every one of these
42:51shows. OddsJam screen shows you
42:53real-time lines at every sports book so
42:55you can lock in all of your bets at the
42:57best possible value. Our team is
42:59constantly using this tool, as you can
43:01see, to evaluate the lines. If you want
43:03to test out Odds Jam, click the link in
43:05the description of the show and use code
43:07Warren to get a free week trial. And if
43:09you stay on board, that code will get
43:11you 40% off of your first month. All
43:14right, let's get to our best bet of the
43:15week. All right, now it's time for maybe
43:18your favorite part of the show, the best
43:20bet reveal time. I'm 38 and 13. That's
43:2375% lifetime on best bets right here on
43:27this podcast. So, make sure that you're
43:29subscribed. We're 2 and 0 so far this
43:30year. 14-4 last year, hoping to go to
43:33three and 0 this year. I got good news
43:36and I got bad news for you on this one.
43:39The good news is Rich and I are aligned
43:42on a prop. The bad news is that would
43:45mean that there's one less prop to share
43:48with you on the show because I'm
43:50duplicating for my best bet a prop that
43:53Rich shared earlier. I'll give my own
43:55spin on it. That's the bad news. The
43:57good news though, I'm trying to be a man
44:00of the people. I'm going to give you
44:01another bet. It's not my best bet, but I
44:04will give you another bet that will be a
44:06client play as well on another game, and
44:09we'll talk about that momentarily. But
44:11first, let's talk about the bet that
44:13Rich liked, which I also like. And we'll
44:16look at the screen right now. That is
44:17Garrett Wilson's Receiving yards over 62
44:21a half, which is widely available right
44:23now at multiple books. There's a couple
44:26shops that have 64 and a half, but
44:28there's so many that have 62 and a half.
44:31They're rolling with 62 and a half for
44:34this bet. What are some of the reasons I
44:36like it? Well, Rich already explained. I
44:39won't dig back and rehash it. Detroit
44:41plays a lot of man. Wilson's targeted
44:4344% of those drop backs against man.
44:46Against zone, he's targeted a little bit
44:48less, but they play a ton of man. When
44:50they're blitzed, Gino Smith is blitzed.
44:53He targets Garrett Wilson a lot. 33% of
44:56targets. Garrett Wilson has success on
44:58those targets. The thing about this one
45:00to me, Rich hinted at it. I'll use the
45:03strength of schedule graphics to help
45:04cement this point.
45:07The New York Jets have played in a very
45:09favorable game script so far this
45:12season. They've led by double digits in
45:14both of their games on the road against
45:16the Tennessee Titans, at home in the
45:18rain against the Green Bay Packers. They
45:21haven't had to or needed to throw the
45:24ball all that much. They haven't been
45:25playing from behind where that would be
45:28the case. But now look at this first
45:30graphic. They're going up against the
45:32offense of the Detroit Lions, which
45:35ranks top five in the NFL in overall
45:37efficiency. I know it hasn't looked as
45:40great and they lost, you know, week two
45:43against the Buffalo Bills, and they
45:44started a little slow, but that was a
45:46game on the road on a short week at
45:48opponents opening their stadium. They
45:50barely get by the New Orleans Saints in
45:53week one, but this is still
45:54statistically a very good offense and
45:57most relevant to this discussion is it's
46:00the most difficult offense that this New
46:02York Jets defense has had to go up
46:04against. So, that's going to be a big
46:05step up in competition for the defense
46:08of the Jets. They might give up more
46:09points. There might be a situation where
46:11there's a trail state involved for the
46:13New York Jets offense for the first time
46:14this year. And we don't know how this
46:16offense is going to function and operate
46:18when they're losing in the second
46:19quarter, when they're losing
46:22midway through the second quarter, when
46:23they're losing in the early third
46:25quarter. They haven't had to deal with
46:26that so far this season. So, that could
46:29be very good for this uh recommendation.
46:32So, the Lions certainly are going to be
46:35able to force the issue and challenge
46:36this Jets defense. But then on the other
46:39side of the balls, this next schedule
46:40graphic shows the Detroit Lions defense
46:44ranks 31st in the NFL. They gave up
46:46yards and production to the Saints and
46:48Chris Ave. They gave up yards and
46:50production to the Buffalo Bills last
46:52week. Josh Allen and all of those
46:54receivers had solid success against
46:56them. So, this is the 31st ranked
46:59defense. It's definitely a step down in
47:01competition for the New York Jets
47:03offense. kind of a perfect storm for the
47:05Jets to potentially be down. Their
47:08defense isn't playing quite as well
47:09against a very good offense that they
47:11haven't been used to facing, but now
47:13they can chase against a defense that's
47:15much worse than the defenses that
47:17they've been facing. I think it's a good
47:18opportunity for them here. Uh the Lions
47:21play cover three also at one of the
47:23higher rates in the NFL and the Jets are
47:26number four in EPA per attempt against
47:28cover three. So hopefully there's enough
47:30looks here for the best bet on Garrett
47:33Wilson to go over 62 and a half
47:36receiving yards. But like I said, a man
47:39of the people. Let's give you one more
47:42bet. It's not going to be our best bet,
47:44but this is another bet. And we're going
47:45to go to the rushing yards market. And
47:47for this time, we are going to go to
47:51Lamar Jackson, who is at 38 and a half
47:54right now. You can find 37 a half at
47:56MGM, but Lamar over 38 a half rushing
48:00yards. I think there's the great
48:04situation here. We already talked about
48:06the Dallas Cowboys defense on our
48:08matchup show, which again, you need to
48:10be subscribed to. We're given some hints
48:12about this Dallas Cowboys defense, how
48:14Christian Parker, they're not really
48:16structured very well right now. They
48:18have problems in the back side of the
48:20defense. They've got multiple injuries
48:22to starters back there, but they're
48:24still blitzing at a relatively high rate
48:26and they're not getting pressure. And we
48:29saw Jaden Daniels last week had I want
48:32to say 68, 67 or 69, somewhere in that
48:35neighborhood. Rushing yards in the first
48:37half of that game. 67 rushing yards in
48:40the first half of that game against his
48:42Dallas Cowboys defense. you don't think
48:43Lamar Jackson is capable of doing the
48:46same thing in Brazil on the road against
48:49a team that's going to be sending some
48:50pressure and the other X factor here is
48:53that Lamar Jackson's offensive line is a
48:55little bit banged up obviously we know
48:57they have don't have Tyler Linderbomb at
48:59center who has lost this past off season
49:02but they also have had injuries to
49:03Ronnie Stanley will he play or not will
49:05Z Flowers go I think this prop has a
49:08good upside even if Zay Flowers is going
49:11to play but certainly if he's not Lamar
49:13is not going to be trusting those
49:14downfield weapons as much. Pressure's
49:16coming. He's going to use his legs.
49:17These quarterbacks love to just lean
49:19back on what's got them to this point,
49:21what they've had success with, and
49:22that's the running game. So, and and
49:24Dallas is an offense that's good enough
49:26to potentially push this Baltimore
49:28Ravens defense a little bit more and
49:31make it so that Lamar's not just sitting
49:33there in the fourth quarter of this game
49:34up 21 points handing the ball off to
49:37Derrick Henry left and right. This game
49:39theoretically should be a little bit
49:41closer than that. and Lamar is going to
49:43need to press to make sure that they win
49:45because they lost their last game to the
49:47Saints in upset fashion. Lamar Jackson
49:50needs to get a win for the Baltimore
49:52Ravens on this trip down to Brazil to
49:53make it worth it uh to come back home
49:55two- one instead of one and two. So,
49:57this would be another one just because I
50:00love you guys and I want to make sure
50:01that I can give you another bet since
50:04Rich and I are aligned on the Garrett
50:06Wilson one. And that'll do it for our
50:09week three Sharp Football Analysis show.
50:11the fastest growing betting show on the
50:13planet. Make sure you're subscribed so
50:14that you never miss another episode.
50:17Hopefully you enjoy these games. Good
50:19luck and we'll see you next week.

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